Latest / TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast / From Blackstone to Bitcoin Mining | Sean Milmoe, Center of Hash E009
Transcript
- 0:00sean welcome to the center of hash thank you it's good to be here your former home bitcoin
- 0:09i was gonna say it's good to be back in the common or bitcoin park we miss you guys
- 0:12i've only been away for a few weeks but i know there's a vacuum that we need to fill
- 0:19a void yep how are things going at the new office oh they're great you know it's uh
- 0:25It's sad to leave this space, but it's good to have our own space.
- 0:29We've grown the team a lot, so it's nice to have conference rooms to take calls and things like that.
- 0:34Signs of success.
- 0:36Yeah, we hope so.
- 0:37The team's grown a lot, putting deals out, so blowing and going.
- 0:42Well, Chris, your co-founder and partner at 360 Energy, recorded in July.
- 0:50and he and I were catching up
- 0:53and I suggested that we should get you on as well.
- 0:57You have a very different background from Chris
- 0:59and I wanted to start out just talking about
- 1:02the history in the oil and gas space on the finance side
- 1:06and how you came to be working on Bitcoin
- 1:12and specifically Bitcoin mining.
- 1:14You were formerly at Blackstone.
- 1:16So just talk a little bit about
- 1:17and then investment banking at Credit Suisse before that,
- 1:21both on the oil and gas side, energy side, I guess.
- 1:25But yeah, talk a little bit about your history,
- 1:29what you were doing,
- 1:30and how you ultimately decided to become interested in Bitcoin
- 1:34and then work on Bitcoin mining.
- 1:37Yeah, definitely.
- 1:38So started at Credit Suisse in the oil and gas group in Houston,
- 1:42went to school in Dallas.
- 1:44And that was what we talked about earlier,
- 1:46pledge ship or finance.
- 1:48Being an analyst in an investment bank is
- 1:49a lot of grunt work,
- 1:51but you do learn a lot over your two-year period
- 1:54there. What years was that?
- 1:56That was 16 to 18.
- 1:58I've done my pledge
- 2:00ship in investment banking as well.
- 2:02New York, 2006
- 2:04to 2009.
- 2:05That was a pretty wild time.
- 2:07I know what it's like.
- 2:10That was great, but the goal
- 2:12is always to get to the buy side.
- 2:14I did two years
- 2:15there and then moved to gso which was the credit arm of blackstone it's rebranded blackstone credit
- 2:21now um in new york 25 person team across new york and houston um and we were investing when i first
- 2:28joined in all oil and gas companies so investing across the capital stack mostly preferred equity
- 2:35down to you're up to senior secured debt um and you know day one it was all oil and gas so a lot
- 2:44of upstream deals, some midstream deals, a little bit of OFS. And it was just, if you need capital
- 2:50as a business to, you know, expand your drilling program or buy more equipment, we would be a
- 2:56capital provider to help them do that and make a return for our LPs. So that was a great experience.
- 3:03You know, it's, it's a very intense environment for sure. A lot of very smart people. And I learned
- 3:09a ton. I was there for six years overall, learned a lot my first three years. The first two years
- 3:17are almost like investment banking all over again, but with a different skill set. You're just
- 3:21working very hard, long hours as well, but your LP is capital you're investing. So the standard
- 3:28is a bit higher on, you have to be really sure you're right. At an investment bank, it's kind of,
- 3:35you're being salesy, right?
- 3:38So that was a great experience.
- 3:42So a question there.
- 3:44One, just total as an aside,
- 3:48what does GSO stand for?
- 3:50The three founders.
- 3:51So Goodman, Smith, and Ostrover.
- 3:54And that was a unit within Blackstone.
- 3:56Yeah, so those three guys were
- 3:58DLJ Credit Suisse guys back in the 90s.
- 4:01They started GSO early 2000s, I believe.
- 4:04I think 2004
- 4:06and then Blackstone bought GSO in 2008.
- 4:10And then specifically talk about
- 4:13in terms of the deals that you would work on
- 4:17where you're typically working on
- 4:19primary equity financings,
- 4:21credit financing,
- 4:22all throughout the capital structure
- 4:25and just the nature of the type of deals
- 4:28that you would have experience with.
- 4:30An example, it was mostly credit focused
- 4:32because GSO was a credit shop.
- 4:34Um, we would do minority common equity, but we wouldn't do control common equity.
- 4:39If there was anything controlled that would go to the private equity group.
- 4:42The blackstone kind of has many business segments, right?
- 4:45Private equity, real estate, and then GSO was the credit arm.
- 4:48So a typical deal, for example, um, uh, midstream or sorry, an upstream operator in the Permian
- 4:55needed a hundred million dollars to go drill 10 more wells.
- 4:59We would give them a term loan, $100 million term loan, pretty expensive capital.
- 5:05We targeted mid-teens.
- 5:06And then we might co-invest $10 million of common equity alongside.
- 5:11And were these typically, I mean, presumably if they're getting a $100 million term loan,
- 5:15these are well-established companies or really often public companies, private mix?
- 5:19It was a mix.
- 5:20I would say most of the deals were private companies.
- 5:23We would do some public stuff.
- 5:24The biggest deal I worked on was a $1.6 billion preferred equity investment into a system called Target Badlands.
- 5:34So Target is a massive midstream company publicly traded, and they wanted to monetize a part of their Bakken assets, their midstream assets there.
- 5:42So we bought a 45% interest preferred interest for $1.6 billion.
- 5:48And that's an example of a deal we would do with some public guys.
- 5:51And Bakken's North Dakota owns oil and gas.
- 5:53Yep, oil and gas in North Dakota.
- 5:54So a gathering system means they have the pipes that actually connect to the wells.
- 5:58So they're the ones that build out to the pad, connect to the actual wells, and get those hydrocarbons to market, both oil and gas.
- 6:06And so you were there for six years.
- 6:11You mentioned the first two years being very similar to an investment banking, first few years.
- 6:17but in terms of exposure to different types of the energy markets how did that look how did it evolve
- 6:26yeah yeah great question covid changed a lot for us um oil went negative that one day
- 6:33our portfolio was you know not in shambles but there was a lot of stuff breaking at negative oil
- 6:40right so we spent a lot of time triaging that that was probably a three-month period of just
- 6:46making sure all of our portfolio companies had enough cash to make it through. And then when we
- 6:51came out the backside of that, the group kind of made a pivot saying, hey, we kind of, the
- 6:57administration was very anti-oil and gas. The senior guys at Blackstone were kind of leaning
- 7:03away from oil and gas as well. So we actually rebranded the group from energy to sustainable
- 7:09resources and started doing new originations on more energy transition and related companies.
- 7:15So my background was oil and gas at Credit Suisse.
- 7:19So it was interesting to look at a whole new sector of the industry in the energy industry.
- 7:26So renewables, service companies that service those renewable projects, things like that.
- 7:31And I was really excited about it at first, you know, to kind of broaden my horizons within energy.
- 7:38But quickly became fairly jaded, frankly, with the whole renewable craze.
- 7:43I think it was overhyped.
- 7:48The asset of returns were just not attractive, frankly.
- 7:51They weren't good deals.
- 7:54But there was so much LP demand for this.
- 7:56People wanted green investments at the time.
- 7:59And ESG was all the rage.
- 8:01So that's kind of the direction the group went in.
- 8:03And that's a part of the reason I ended up leaving and making the jump to 360.
- 8:08I just didn't feel like I liked the way the group was going.
- 8:12how large within blackstone is that group just in terms of like total
- 8:18assets that are under management capital being deployed just yeah blackstone credit as a whole
- 8:26is pretty large so i'd have to look at the latest numbers but let's say blackstone is around a
- 8:31trillion or a year ago is around trillion i'm sure it's more now of total AUM i believe blackstone
- 8:36credit is around 400 billion of that 300 to 400 billion but then the energy and the energy group
- 8:42we had 25 billion of AUM okay so maybe 25 percent of the credit and then yeah two and a half if on
- 8:52that trillion dollar total two and a half percent of the total exactly and we were a bit unique
- 8:58within blackstone credit we were the only industry specific group just because energy by nature is a
- 9:03bit more technical and you need a little bit more industry knowledge.
- 9:06The rest of Blackstone Credit was more industry agnostic and covered, you know, broad parts
- 9:12of the economy.
- 9:15You mentioned the preferred equity deals to credit.
- 9:20Did you specialize on one or the other over that course?
- 9:23No, you kind of got staffed on a deal that came in as you were available and would work
- 9:28on various things.
- 9:29So I worked on anything from just vanilla senior secured term loans to Harrier preferred equity stuff.
- 9:40So now connect for folks, the transition from what you were doing, what got you originally interested in Bitcoin before even 360?
- 9:48Yeah.
- 9:49Or maybe they're intertwined.
- 9:50Yeah, no. So my origin story, if you will, in 2016, my buddy at Credit Suisse, a fellow analyst, told me to buy some Bitcoin, you know, and I did just to appease him, but didn't understand it at all. Thought it was internet fake money, as everyone kind of does in the very beginning.
- 10:11didn't really think about it again until 2020 i was at loxone at the time and saw the whole
- 10:18covid response printing trillions of dollars and i just you know the finance background in me was
- 10:25like if if they're going to print that much money something's going to go wrong like that that has
- 10:30externalities negative externalities and i had my dad kind of like gold in the past so i had some
- 10:37some gold exposure, just the ETF, and then kind of recircled around to Bitcoin.
- 10:43Marty's podcast was one of the early things that kind of started getting me down the rabbit hole.
- 10:49Read the Bitcoin standard and then just slowly fell down the rabbit hole, kind of 2020 onwards.
- 10:54It was very similar for me in 2008, 2009, which I think is fairly common for people, which was
- 11:03there's a financial crisis
- 11:06and 2020,
- 11:092021,
- 11:11the response was different.
- 11:13I'd say it was much quicker,
- 11:14but being in the middle of,
- 11:18at the time for me,
- 11:20investment banking,
- 11:21it was that something's broken here.
- 11:24I don't know exactly what,
- 11:26but none of this makes sense.
- 11:28And then for me,
- 11:29it was at that time,
- 11:31it was,
- 11:33tail end of it i guess at the time where it was happening in 2008 early 2009 bitcoin was just
- 11:39being launched i had no way to connect it to bitcoin but later came revisited to figure out
- 11:48what exactly was broken but i think that's very logical where there's just an instinctive reaction
- 11:53that something's wrong here right and it sets you off on a course to to figure out what that is even
- 12:00if the immediate connection isn't directly there.
- 12:04No, exactly.
- 12:04And we were doing all this hard diligence,
- 12:07all this hard work in making 11% yielding loans.
- 12:11And everyone knew inflation was around that.
- 12:14It's like, what are we spending all this time on
- 12:16to make loans and make 11%
- 12:20when they're just printing all that money anyways?
- 12:22And you're going to be breaking even, really,
- 12:25on an adjusted basis.
- 12:26So, totally.
- 12:28Yeah, and that's also something that...
- 12:30I've talked about it in a couple episodes just very briefly.
- 12:34Maybe we can talk about it in more detail.
- 12:37But one of the ways that I'm describing Bitcoin to somebody that's new
- 12:43is connecting that,
- 12:47and I don't have nearly as much knowledge as someone like you might have
- 12:51in terms of the operations of an upstream oil and gas business,
- 12:57say if that was an example of a subset of the businesses that you were financing and working
- 13:01deals on, but that it doesn't make sense if you think about all the complexity that goes into
- 13:08those businesses, complexity to the supply chains, the amount of actual money required to make those
- 13:17operations work, the human capital, the physical capital, and then to sell the output of it just
- 13:24using the case of oil and gas, maybe gas that comes out of a pipeline or oil at a gathering
- 13:29station, force some money that someone can click a button and print out of thin air.
- 13:36You mentioned previously that when the COVID lockdown happened, a lot of the focus shifted
- 13:43to making sure companies that were in the portfolio had enough money to survive.
- 13:50what does that mean in practice for for some of the more like in a tangible case for the type
- 13:57of companies that you would work on yeah for a tangible example was you know we were in a debt
- 14:03position and so we are owed interest you know every quarter right we could go to them and say
- 14:11hey for two quarters we'll pick this interest we'll let you not pay cash just add to the debt
- 14:17balance to give you some breathing room proactively. We didn't have to do that, but we didn't want them
- 14:23to default because of this really black swan event. Oil going negative is very rare. So give
- 14:32them some flexibility from our capital is one thing we could do. That's an interesting... So
- 14:36just as an aside can you explain contextually why oil went negative Yeah I mean it was a bit of a freak event But from my understanding there was so much
- 14:50There's just no demand, right?
- 14:51There's no one's flying planes.
- 14:53There's no demand.
- 14:54No one's driving cars.
- 14:55So demand was so low.
- 14:57Wells are still flowing.
- 14:59And Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is cleared every day, for that one day, there was just no buyers and all the oil was still there.
- 15:08And there was no place to store it.
- 15:11Exactly. Storage was full, and there's a real cost to storing that.
- 15:15So people were effectively paying to have their oil go somewhere, which is a negative price.
- 15:22And there were speculators in that market that couldn't actually take delivery.
- 15:26Exactly.
- 15:26Okay.
- 15:27Exactly.
- 15:29And so would your group do the restructuring?
- 15:34essentially if you were going to work on an amendment for a credit deal,
- 15:39would your group within Blackstone work on that directly
- 15:42or would that be outsourced to restructuring shops?
- 15:44Yeah, we would work on that directly.
- 15:46We would hire restructuring attorneys
- 15:47to do the more technical document-related things,
- 15:50but our deal teams, we had some bankruptcies
- 15:52that we would have to work through.
- 15:54And so if you connected in this period of extreme money printing
- 16:01to thinking about the amount of effort and work
- 16:06that went into your deals and the type of returns
- 16:07versus how easily the money could be created to Bitcoin.
- 16:14How, in a direct way, did that help inform
- 16:19your understanding of Bitcoin
- 16:20when you started to go down the rabbit hole?
- 16:22Just like how you came, how do you think about Bitcoin?
- 16:25Yeah, exactly.
- 16:26I mean, again, we're spending all this brain damage,
- 16:28all this effort on structuring creative deals,
- 16:31and trying to make alpha,
- 16:34risk-adjusted positive returns.
- 16:37But at the end of the day,
- 16:38like you said,
- 16:39someone can print money
- 16:41with the push of a button.
- 16:43So once you learn about Bitcoin
- 16:44and you ingrain in your head
- 16:46there's only 21 million,
- 16:48that's a fact.
- 16:50It really changes the way
- 16:51I thought about it.
- 16:53You can own an asset
- 16:54that can't be devalued by someone.
- 16:57I would rather own that
- 16:58than do all this work
- 16:59trying to make 10%
- 17:01in a currency that's being debased.
- 17:04It's a lot easier to just go hold an asset that can't be debased.
- 17:08So that was kind of my original path down the rabbit hole
- 17:12was informed by that thought process.
- 17:14And so when that started to click, you called Chris?
- 17:21Yeah, so I was going down the rabbit hole.
- 17:23Chris called me.
- 17:24Yeah, Chris called me and said,
- 17:28hey, I want to do this Bitcoin mining thing.
- 17:31cheap electricity is the name of the game that's how you differentiate yourself as a bitcoin miner
- 17:36i had this idea with natural gas he didn't know much about oil and gas at the time he knew i did
- 17:41we went to smue together so kind of reconnected about that i at first thought he was crazy um
- 17:46but then started running some numbers in excel and then funnily enough at the same around the
- 17:52same time at blackstone we looked at a deal for crusoe energy who was one of the first guys doing
- 17:59Bitcoin mining in the oil field. So the fact that Blackstone, you know, didn't make it through
- 18:04investment committee, but the fact that Blackstone was at least looking at doing a deal with Crusoe,
- 18:08which was doing natural gas Bitcoin mining, kind of made me think different about it too.
- 18:14So I took another look at the numbers and said, Hey, there actually might be something here.
- 18:18And Chris started the company. I was just helping him on the side in the beginning.
- 18:23and you know over the next year i started spending more time helping him and it was much more
- 18:30interesting and dynamic and exciting to work on the beginning of that company versus you know going
- 18:36to credit committee for another 11 term loan um and at the same time at blackstone we started doing
- 18:44more and more direct lending deals you know direct lending was kind of in its infancy back in 2019
- 18:49but now it's everyone's doing it and those deals are generally more boring than some of the
- 18:56carrier preferred equity mezzanine type stuff that i liked working on those deals are unique
- 19:02there's a lot of structuring involved you know you have equity kickers warrants things like that
- 19:06and your typical direct lending deal it's really just you know sofer plus six percent and that's
- 19:12the return you're going to make so the interest in my blackstone deals was going down the interest
- 19:17in 360 was going up and eventually made the decision you know i don't want to be a managing
- 19:24director at blackstone you know i respect those people they love it i didn't love the deals i was
- 19:29working on i was loving what i was doing at 360 with chris so you know decided hey now's the time
- 19:35to to make the jump well you know again difference in time periods slightly but i remember in 2008
- 19:442009 when there were guys who were my age now that in my mind then seemed much older at the time
- 19:53but I remember having the express thought that I didn't want to be sitting around waiting for
- 19:59somebody to come tap me on the shoulder and say hey you're out after 10 years of service or 20
- 20:06years of service and realizing that you're really at the center you know again at that time my
- 20:13my reaction was just that like something's broken and I don't want to be
- 20:17that guy.
- 20:18Yep.
- 20:18Not to,
- 20:19you know,
- 20:19there were a lot of good people there.
- 20:21Right.
- 20:21Later I figured out that not necessarily investment banking,
- 20:26because it's more on the,
- 20:27the,
- 20:28the edge of the,
- 20:31the bank I'd say in terms of money creation and the problems,
- 20:34but it's all interrelated.
- 20:36Yeah.
- 20:37You mentioned looking at the economics of some of the,
- 20:42traditional deals you were doing and looking at the economics and thinking to yourself they
- 20:46weren't sustainable talk about maybe how that contrasted in your thinking looking at
- 20:53the sustainability of the economics around bitcoin and bitcoin mining yeah i mean to
- 21:01to give an example on the renewable side you know a typical renewable project has a lot of
- 21:08debt on it that you'll sign a 15-year power purchase agreement to sell your power that you make
- 21:14with hopefully an investment counterparty. So that's very financeable. You get a bunch of debt
- 21:19and then there's an equity piece like any deal. Those equity returns over the 15-year period
- 21:26were 0%. You were simply making your money back on the equity over 15 years.
- 21:31And then all of your return was some assumption on year 15 to year 25. What's the merchant power
- 21:37price going to be at that point in time so you're making a bet on power prices in 15 years and then
- 21:43even then the equity returns at that point in time i don't know what they are now but still like six
- 21:48seven percent on these deals and that just seemed crazy to me and then you look at the bitcoin mining
- 21:53economics um at the time you're making forty dollars in mcf and making you know year paybacks
- 21:59on your your infrastructure given you know granted it's a lot riskier because it's a fluctuating
- 22:05commodity price you don't have a 15-year purchase power purchase agreement to finance but in my mind
- 22:12and once you understand bitcoin it becomes a lot less risky compared to that you know 6% irr over
- 22:2025 years how much of it do you think was say long-term power purchase agreements versus
- 22:28the financing structures
- 22:31and then pipeline
- 22:33of money
- 22:35to underwrite those deals that was
- 22:37creating the
- 22:39sustainability versus lack of...
- 22:41The reason those equity returns were
- 22:43compressed so low was because how much money
- 22:45was chasing those deals.
- 22:46A lot of this printed money was
- 22:49flowing into these deals.
- 22:52The equity returns
- 22:53should not have gotten bid down that
- 22:55low, but they were because everyone
- 22:57wanted to own a solar farm.
- 23:00And now, by the way,
- 23:01those returns are after all the tax incentives.
- 23:04Without the tax incentives,
- 23:05they're negative return projects.
- 23:08And so when you
- 23:10pull it forward to what you guys
- 23:13are working on at 360,
- 23:16you went from this world
- 23:17where when you started
- 23:19a combination of Credit Suisse
- 23:21going into Blackstone,
- 23:25the
- 23:25bulk or the volume was oil and gas shifted more towards wind and solar
- 23:34wind and solar and ancillary businesses the guys who install the solar panels yeah and now
- 23:40you start to figure out bitcoin start talking to chris more helping them out on the side
- 23:47and Chris, maybe with your input
- 23:52or maybe if you can share the thinking on it
- 23:55in terms of how it evolved,
- 23:57coming back to natural gas
- 24:00and why natural gas as a long-term strategy
- 24:06for mining Bitcoin makes sense.
- 24:08Right, yeah.
- 24:09So given my experience in oil and gas finance,
- 24:14I at least knew a little bit about
- 24:15the production profile of wells and how that works financially. So the idea originally for
- 24:22the company was let's find the cheapest power. How can we do that? And the idea was let's get
- 24:26to the source. Let's buy these unattractive upstream assets that other people don't care
- 24:31about. The wells we bought originally were drilled in 2006. They're well past their flush production.
- 24:38They're on their terminal decline. They're dry gas and they're selling into a high pressure
- 24:42pipeline, meaning you're not making a lot of money. So from a traditional oil and gas standpoint,
- 24:48it's not attractive. It's a cashflow breakeven asset that people are willing to sell for very
- 24:53cheap. But we saw that as a opportunity to buy that very cheap and then monetize that gas
- 24:58through Bitcoin mining, because you can control your own power. You make your power behind the
- 25:03and you effectively have 30 years of almost fixed power costs, right?
- 25:11Your only cost at that point is maintaining your generators and producing the wells.
- 25:16You're not beholden to the market price.
- 25:19I guess you are for Bitcoin price.
- 25:20But again, at the time, it was $40 in MCF when Henry Hub was at $2 in MCF.
- 25:25But in terms of your power costs, it's the capital you have invested in the well
- 25:30plus largely fixed cost.
- 25:34Exactly.
- 25:34In any infrastructure that you need on site
- 25:38and then the efficiency of converting natural gas.
- 25:44Exactly.
- 25:44So you can model your costs in a pretty tight band.
- 25:47Unlike if you're on the grid,
- 25:49you sign a three-year power purchase agreement.
- 25:51In three years,
- 25:52you really don't know what your power price is going to be.
- 25:54And that was back in 21
- 25:56when everyone was just trying to get ASICs plugged in.
- 25:59It was, you know, bull market.
- 26:01People were paying crazy prices for ASICs and just to get powered on.
- 26:06So we at least knew that wasn't sustainable and figured, hey, let's figure out a way to get long-term power at a lower price.
- 26:14if you were to have a conversation with one of your former colleagues at blackstone
- 26:22making the case for why the economics of bitcoin mining
- 26:28say you know not necessarily what you're currently focused on upstream natural gas
- 26:34but just more generally how do you make that case
- 26:37oh man or just like how would you explain it in terms of the opportunity and why
- 26:42when i when i mean sustainable it's like why this will continue to exist yeah five years from now
- 26:4910 years from now 20 years from now yeah i think an analogy that's good to use that we use with
- 26:53customers is if you're mining bitcoin your largest cost is your electricity cost so how do you become
- 27:00the low cost producer in oil and gas the low loe producer lease operating expense producer can stay
- 27:07online when oil and gas prices go down as they all often do the same thing applies to bitcoin mining
- 27:13you know the lowest cost producer is going to be able to weather the fluctuations fluctuations of
- 27:18bitcoin so i would use that analogy but then you're going to have to explain to them why bitcoin
- 27:24will exist in five years um and that is a whole another you know rabbit hole i'm probably not the
- 27:29best person to orange pill people you know by the time i left blackstone i was the crazy bitcoin guy
- 27:35trying to tell everyone about it.
- 27:37And I found a couple other people within Blackstone
- 27:40who also loved Bitcoin,
- 27:42but there was real no way to express that
- 27:45in the work we were doing at Blackstone.
- 27:48Could you maybe elaborate on the parallels
- 27:53and then maybe differences between those market dynamics
- 27:55of being the low-cost producer in energy
- 28:00and when the price comes down,
- 28:03what happens in that market versus when the price goes up and then the parallel to Bitcoin mining.
- 28:09And maybe just talk about similarities and differences.
- 28:13Yeah, sure. So in an oil and gas well, let's just say an oil well, you have lifting costs,
- 28:18which is how much are your expenses divided by how many barrels you make. So companies will say,
- 28:24hey, for every barrel of oil I produce, my costs are $10. Some guys' costs might be $30.
- 28:30dollars other guys might might be five dollars so the guys with 30 40 dollar lifting costs when oil
- 28:37goes down to 40 dollars a barrel they're break even or cash flow negative so they have to shut
- 28:42in their well the guys that are only their costs are five dollars per barrel can still make money
- 28:49at 40 wti same exact thing happens in bitcoin if you're paying seven cents per kilowatt hour on the
- 28:57grid hash price goes down to 40 which it did and it's not too far from that now um you're going to
- 29:04be break even to cash flow negative depending on what machines you have plugged in so those guys
- 29:08shut in same thing as shutting in a well you shut down the bitcoin mine because why are you going
- 29:11to mine if you're cash flow negative um our all-in costs off the grid our loe is you know two to three
- 29:21cents a kilowatt hour so we can stay profitable with hash price a lot lower but you know there no free lunch You do have to spend capital up front on generators and things like that But that the analogy
- 29:33It's very comparable.
- 29:34And so in the oil and gas world, let's just talk oil.
- 29:40Price of oil drops.
- 29:42Certain producers become unprofitable.
- 29:44They physically have to cut off.
- 29:47Turn off the well.
- 29:48And that oil stops flowing.
- 29:50Yep.
- 29:52And the low-cost producer or those that are on the lower end that remain profitable functionally take more market share because other operators are turning off.
- 30:09And those other operators, maybe they become unprofitable overall.
- 30:13Maybe they go away.
- 30:14Maybe there's consolidation in the industry.
- 30:16I remember 2014, 2015 when I believe it was Saudi stopped or basically said they were going to continue to produce and not hold the target.
- 30:30The weakest fail, consolidation, the world of Bitcoin, a mine will shut off.
- 30:38And the amount of Bitcoin that are issued continues to remain functionally the same.
- 30:45price might be lower
- 30:47and those that
- 30:48are continuing to operate
- 30:52would get more nominal Bitcoin.
- 30:54Exactly.
- 30:55So in the oil and gas world
- 30:56the direct feedback loop
- 31:00is you're still producing
- 31:01the same amount that you were
- 31:02you're just able to continue
- 31:03to do it profitably
- 31:04albeit less profitably
- 31:06and maybe in the future
- 31:07you might be able to go
- 31:09accumulate more assets
- 31:12to expand your production footprint.
- 31:15in bitcoin it's more dynamic where you might actually produce more bitcoin at a lower price
- 31:23exactly and it's the same you know the saying goes the cure for low prices is low prices if
- 31:29oil prices go down people shut in that'll eventually cause a supply crunch and prices
- 31:36will go back up same thing in hash price you know hash price goes down people are going to unplug
- 31:41at some point, which caused hash price to come back up.
- 31:45So when you guys were looking at wells,
- 31:48and you guys were looking at gas wells,
- 31:50were they, for the initial well or set of wells
- 31:54that you invested in, were they just gas?
- 31:57They were dry gas only.
- 31:58Okay.
- 31:59And when you look at the economics,
- 32:04who were the counterparties that you were buying from?
- 32:07Were they just other individuals that you knew?
- 32:09were they larger companies no it was a privately held fairly large oil and gas operator just in
- 32:15the barnet and they were just were selling this package on energy net which is craigslist of oil
- 32:22and gas assets you could log on today and there'd be 20 assets for sale so describing your terms
- 32:28maybe this has evolved over time you come more from you wear the cfo hat at 360 energy you've
- 32:38worked in oil and gas finance, but more broadly looking at a spectrum of preferred equity to
- 32:47MES debt to term loans, you understand the financing structures of oil and gas deals
- 32:52and the underwriting and then the assets that are attached to them through the financing
- 33:00lens what do you look for in attractive assets that are particularly interesting for bitcoin
- 33:11mining yeah it's a great question so the way pdp assets prove developed producing assets so
- 33:18flowing wells are called pdp wells the way they trade on the market is a discount cash flow analysis
- 33:25this. So say I'll buy that well for PB 15.
- 33:30You model out the cash flows, the production of the well,
- 33:34you assume strip pricing, you model out your costs,
- 33:38you discount all those cash flows back by some discount rate.
- 33:41That's what the market decides.
- 33:43And you can buy it for the present value discounted back 15%, call it.
- 33:48So, um, depending on the specific asset, it might be PB 20.
- 33:53you're getting a little cheaper um but the the interesting part is the you're discounting back
- 34:00just in oil and gas terms like you can buy stuff on the market on just oil and gas terms so since
- 34:07these were unattractive wells the costs were very high the midstream cost was high so the cash flow
- 34:13on oil and gas basis only was pretty low so the pb20 was cheap um no one else was thinking about
- 34:20layering in the Bitcoin mining economics on top of it. So when you look at the present value,
- 34:25assuming Bitcoin mining, you're getting a good price. You can layer in that capital and have
- 34:31a present value uplift and say, I'm buying this gas asset for cheap, you know, on gas terms,
- 34:37layering on the Bitcoin that no one else thinks about. And then you have upside for that asset.
- 34:42Maybe elaborate on that for people that aren't as familiar.
- 34:47because I think what you said there,
- 34:52there was something implied about the fact that
- 34:57if you're valuing net cash flows
- 35:02on the oil and gas side
- 35:05and what costs remain
- 35:10if you were to mine Bitcoin
- 35:12versus what costs would be eliminated
- 35:14such that if these assets are being sold out to the market
- 35:20and all of the market of potential buyers
- 35:25are looking at it one way,
- 35:26but you're looking at it through a different lens,
- 35:28why you would value it potentially more
- 35:33than somebody else that could only look through it
- 35:35through the traditional lens?
- 35:37Yeah.
- 35:37So on the cost side,
- 35:39a big cost you can eliminate with Bitcoin mining
- 35:41is your midstream fees.
- 35:43we have to pay you know call it 80 cents per mcf to the pipeline operator just to take our gas
- 35:50so if you're using your gas on your own pad that's a cost item you can eliminate but the real uplift
- 35:56comes in the revenue side of it right if you look at strip henry hub and it's you know call it three
- 36:04dollars ish for the next five years everyone else is looking at three dollars of revenue
- 36:09In the Bitcoin mining side, you have to invest capital day one, but your revenue is going to be a lot higher.
- 36:15Today, it's $15.
- 36:17When we looked at it, it was $40.
- 36:19You can run sensitivities, but inherently your cash flows that you're looking at are going to be higher because your revenue side is higher.
- 36:27That's what the Bitcoin mining brings.
- 36:29Are you still paying the lifting costs that you mentioned?
- 36:31You still have some lifting costs for the well.
- 36:34Yeah.
- 36:34You still have to put chemicals in the well.
- 36:36You still have to haul water, things like that.
- 36:37So those costs are the same.
- 36:39You can eliminate the midstream cost, and then you have higher revenue.
- 36:44With incremental capital.
- 36:47Exactly.
- 36:48So you do have to spend money to get that higher capital.
- 36:51So that's just the math problem.
- 36:53So if you can, without having to lose people in specifics of the individual dynamics,
- 37:03at least kind of order of magnitude help somebody understand the biggest levers.
- 37:16And then when you're thinking about bidding on an asset,
- 37:21what you'd be willing to pay relative to somebody else
- 37:24that was only looking at it through the conventional lens.
- 37:28Yeah, so really round numbers.
- 37:29let's say the oil and gas asset in a traditional oil and gas sense at strip pricing is expected to
- 37:37make a hundred thousand dollars of free cash flow a year and strip pricing is the forward the forward
- 37:42curve yeah of henry hub and then all your costs after all your costs after strip pricing after
- 37:49the production curve hundred thousand dollars a year is what the gas wells will make so the market
- 37:55is going to put a discount rate on that. And then that's what it trades for in the open market.
- 38:00Someone's willing to buy that for a round number, million dollars. They'll buy that for a million
- 38:05dollars in the oil and gas only sense. The beauty of it is we don't have to pay more than a million
- 38:10dollars. We can still buy that for a million dollars. So that's the market price. We're not
- 38:14going to overpay just because we're going to do Bitcoin mining, but we're willing to buy it for
- 38:19million and then invest an additional 2 million, call it, to build a Bitcoin mine.
- 38:26And then now instead of $100,000 a year of cashflow, it's $500,000 a year or whatever
- 38:32the math is.
- 38:33But you're investing, you're buying the asset for market price.
- 38:37But because you can invest the money and increase revenue that other people aren't thinking
- 38:42about, your return hopefully is going to be higher.
- 38:45on a both an absolute basis and on a percentage basis yes as a combined function of eliminating
- 38:52certain costs putting capital investment and to capitalize it but then when you reference a
- 38:58cash flow increasing by five times but increasing your capital base by three times
- 39:03the overall economics exactly the uplift is higher so if the strip pricing ended up playing
- 39:09out exactly how it was and you were operating it as just a oil and gas asset you would make
- 39:14whatever you bought it for 15 percent right because that's what you're buying the pv15
- 39:18everything plays out as modeled you're making a 15 return and how do you think about obviously
- 39:26bitcoin is volatile yeah but oil and gas are both volatile as well yeah
- 39:34how does somebody think about
- 39:38the
- 39:41volatility
- 39:43of gas because you talk about strip
- 39:45but you don't actually know what that's going to be
- 39:47maybe yeah it's never what strip
- 39:49actually is right
- 39:50is it from a from an underwriting
- 39:55perspective I'm not talking about
- 39:57ability to predict but
- 39:59how the difference in
- 40:01volatility
- 40:02in the revenue side of Bitcoin
- 40:06versus the revenue side of oil and gas?
- 40:09How do you account for that?
- 40:10Yeah.
- 40:11On the natural gas side especially,
- 40:13the volatility is pretty comparable
- 40:15from just an absolute basis.
- 40:18That's pretty wild.
- 40:19It's extremely volatile.
- 40:20And especially,
- 40:21you talked about it with Chris a little bit,
- 40:23but the various hubs are all different.
- 40:26Waha today is at negative $2.
- 40:29Henry Hub's at $3.
- 40:30Wait, why is it negative $2?
- 40:32Is that right?
- 40:33Because I felt like two weeks ago, it was like a dollar.
- 40:36Yeah, it was.
- 40:37It's negative $2 today because Kinder Morgan has an outage in some plant.
- 40:42And they're, you know, 2% of the volume of the Permian.
- 40:46Even though they're only 2%, that shutdown has just caused more supply than there is demand.
- 40:52And they're a processor.
- 40:54Yeah.
- 40:54They have a bunch of gas plants and pipelines.
- 40:57They're a midstream company.
- 40:58Yeah, it's really interesting because Bitcoin is clearly volatile and everyone generally knows that it's volatile.
- 41:08And it's oftentimes difficult for people to be able to invest long-term, not just in Bitcoin, but particularly a business that is either a service company or more directly involved day-to-day in the Bitcoin world.
- 41:31whether it's a Bitcoin exchange, custody business,
- 41:36I'm working on payments, you guys are working on mining,
- 41:38it's difficult for people to perceive how you can operate
- 41:43in a world that is so volatile.
- 41:46Cyclical is not the right, maybe cyclical is the right term,
- 41:49but it's cyclical with long-term adoption going in your favor.
- 41:52Yeah.
- 41:53Without the appreciation that something as mature of a market
- 41:59as natural gases is incredibly volatile.
- 42:04So if, you know, some people might be familiar with when,
- 42:08I think it was Henry Hub went from $2 or $3 to $9
- 42:14when I believe it was Nord Stream.
- 42:18Nord Stream and then Russia, Ukraine.
- 42:20Yeah.
- 42:20Yeah.
- 42:21And that if you actually look at the daily volatility,
- 42:25it's bitcoin's fairly comparable to natural gas for sure but the follow-up i was going to say is
- 42:31the helpful thing in natural gas markets that producers utilize it's very hedgeable it's
- 42:38extremely liquid market to hedge three years out so but not 15 not 15 no you could probably get
- 42:46five seven eight years out um someone will buy it because there's a lot of natural buyers of gas
- 42:51There's the producers want to sell into the future.
- 42:55Power plants, things like that want to buy.
- 42:58Oil has the same dynamic.
- 42:59In mining, Luxor is working on some hash price derivatives.
- 43:04It's nowhere near as liquid.
- 43:05You can hedge out maybe six months, maybe 12 months, but not even close to five years.
- 43:11And then since it's so illiquid, the bid-ask spread is wide.
- 43:15You're not able to really lock in your hash price as well as these guys can lock in their
- 43:20natural gas prices.
- 43:21So producers can say, hey, I know natural gas is going to be volatile, but I can at least lock in 80% of my production at $3 for the next three years.
- 43:32And they do that.
- 43:33So the ability to hedge in the Bitcoin world, in my view, is functionally non-existent.
- 43:42Correct.
- 43:42When I've done the analysis of lending dollars in an over-collateralized way with Bitcoin as the collateral, the hedge has been cost prohibitive.
- 43:57You functionally though trading Bitcoin volatility or natural gas volatility when you actually at the well site and owning the molecules Yep The decline of a natural gas well
- 44:17the ones that you were looking at conventionally,
- 44:19what are those typically?
- 44:20And how do you think about that in the context of Bitcoin mining?
- 44:26Yeah.
- 44:27In a site.
- 44:28So every well is different.
- 44:29Our specific wells are on terminal decline,
- 44:32which is three to 5% a year.
- 44:34they're very old very steady decline uh when a shale well first is drilled the first year is
- 44:41gonna have 80 decline that is not ideal for bitcoin mining because our generators and our
- 44:47minds would like a steady flow of gas so you want a steady flow of gas as you can get and you want
- 44:56to build your mine to where in three years you still have enough gas you might have to undersize
- 45:02it a bit today to plan for where the decline curve will be in three to five years so if
- 45:07a well was going to decline three to five percent for 10 years and it had a certain amount of volume
- 45:14you might build your mind to a capacity of say 60 percent of today of today yep what do you do
- 45:24with that excess or how do you account for it in your model so our asset was pipeline connected
- 45:30so we would just sell the excess into the pipeline and take take that if there is no pipeline you have
- 45:35to flare it or you can choke back your well um again every well is different but some wells
- 45:41you can choke back the production a little bit to make it more flat and you know you have to keep
- 45:48the reservoir pressure the same all these complicated things that petroleum engineers
- 45:52are really good at um to keep production pretty flat um in the interim but you might have you
- 46:00might not be able to do that it might have to just flare it that excess conceptually
- 46:05now one might be more predictable than the other but is it fair to think about the decline curve
- 46:13of a well with assuming hash rate is increasing the decline in production of bitcoin at a mining
- 46:28site. That's interesting. I've actually never thought about those two compared. But yeah,
- 46:33I mean, Bitcoin denominated hash price will go down forever pretty much in the long term
- 46:39as hash rate increases over time, right? Yeah, because that's one thing,
- 46:45and I've never participated directly in Bitcoin mining, but I've looked at Bitcoin mining models.
- 46:50I've built financial models around Bitcoin mining. I think one of the other things beyond just the
- 46:57volatility of Bitcoin, which somebody that is steeped in oil and gas and natural gas
- 47:03specifically would recognize that, hey, if I look at the historical volatility of these
- 47:07two things, at least over the last year, two years, three years, five years even, the volatility
- 47:12is fairly comparable, that it's difficult to project what the change in hash rate is
- 47:18going to be.
- 47:19So how do you guys think about that, both internally to 360, but also when you're
- 47:27And you're taking questions from customers that are looking at using your services.
- 47:33Yeah.
- 47:33For our customers, we think about things on dollar-denominated hash price.
- 47:38And we try to explain it to them.
- 47:40It's a little tricky.
- 47:40But we basically just say, dollar-denominated hash price is the same as Henry Hub.
- 47:45It is the clearing price you're going to get paid for the commodity you produce.
- 47:50So as a natural gas producer, the commodity is natural gas molecules.
- 47:54The price you get is Henry Hub.
- 47:55for bitcoin mining you're producing hash rate and the price you're going to get is dollar per petahash
- 48:01and we tell them just like natural gas we can't predict where it's going to go so what we do is
- 48:07we'll run sensitivity tables for them and say hey here's the all-time low if hash price is below the
- 48:13all-time low for five years your return is going to be this if it's at the all-time low it's you
- 48:18know the five-year average and we'll run sensitivities because we're not smart enough to know where hash
- 48:23prices no one is you know know where that's going to go um and they they appreciate that because
- 48:28they're used to every hub right um they wish they could hedge it and hopefully over time those
- 48:35markets get more built out in bitcoin mining um but they get that comparison because they're used
- 48:42to the fact that they don't know what henry hub's going to be in the next three years when you're
- 48:47underwriting a acquisition of a pdp portfolio something like what stone ridge just bought from
- 48:54anadarko yep they would inevitably have to be doing the same exactly same exact sensitivity
- 49:00analysis at blackstone we do the same thing you run henry hub from a dollar to five dollars
- 49:05and you look at your returns and sensitivity table and then you basically say i need to account for
- 49:11this range and so what do i think the downside is which in the case of bitcoin mining would be a
- 49:15faster increase in hash rate
- 49:18and then account for that
- 49:20and what you're willing to pay up front.
- 49:22Exactly.
- 49:22Yeah.
- 49:23Yeah.
- 49:24So
- 49:25now
- 49:27coming into
- 49:29where you guys started buying wells
- 49:32and thinking about the financing of individual wells
- 49:35and the economics of wells and well sites.
- 49:40My discussion with Chris,
- 49:42we talked about how
- 49:44you guys have shifted to being more of a service company
- 49:48to people that own assets in the oil field
- 49:53rather than owning the assets yourself.
- 49:58Talk about when you're discussing your services
- 50:03and how you structure your services with customers,
- 50:07how you actually approach the alignment of incentives
- 50:13and the various different pathways you evaluate
- 50:18and how you decide going down one path or another,
- 50:21what those decision points are based on the profile
- 50:23of the owners of the actual wells.
- 50:27Yeah, definitely.
- 50:28So started the company, we owned our own gas wells,
- 50:32and we viewed it through the lens of Bitcoin mining.
- 50:34We said, we want to achieve power.
- 50:36Let's do Bitcoin mining to make more money on this gas.
- 50:39Once we got good at that, it took us two years.
- 50:41You and Chris talked about that.
- 50:42um other producers came to us and said hey we want you to do this for us to make more money on our gas
- 50:49so we saw a need in the industry for someone to provide that service other these oil and gas guys
- 50:56don't want to learn how to be bitcoin miners so our original model was hey you can buy the
- 51:00infrastructure from us we will build it to our spec that we know that works um and we'll operate
- 51:07it for you it will take a service fee on that you're spending the capital you're the owner of
- 51:11the generators, you're the owner of the A6. And then you get that same economic uplift that we
- 51:16realize on our own wells. So in that model, the incentives are very aligned because the producer
- 51:24is spending a bunch of capital that they need to make return on. We're building it for them.
- 51:30And we are banking on the fact that they're going to flow gas to that system because they have
- 51:35millions of dollars invested in it and they need to make return. So our service fees, a percent of
- 51:41the hash rate we're aligned because we want to make sure the mine's running well to get our royalty
- 51:46or our service fee um but that's how we align it for that business model the other business model
- 51:53i think you and chris might have talked about if the producer doesn't want to spend a bunch of
- 51:57money on bitcoin mining they can rent our infrastructure we own the the generators and
- 52:04asics they pay us a fixed monthly fee to be out there no matter what they flow gas through the
- 52:11system, they get 90% of the revenue back from the Bitcoin mine. In that case, incentives are also
- 52:19in line. They have no capital skin in the game, but they're on the hook every month for this rental
- 52:24fee. And if they want to break even to make a little bit of money on the gas, they have to flow
- 52:31gas through the system as well. So we're also aligned incentive-wise there. There was a structure
- 52:38that I know you guys had considered,
- 52:40which was just going and buying the gas directly
- 52:44from an asset owner.
- 52:47Yep.
- 52:47So rather than them send it to a pipeline or layer,
- 52:53compare that and the incentives of that.
- 53:00So basically looking more similarly
- 53:03to the owner of the assets as gas offtake.
- 53:10Why or why not take that approach?
- 53:14And so that was the model Crusoe started with.
- 53:17They would go to guys in the Bakken, North Dakota,
- 53:19say, hey, you're flaring this gas,
- 53:22Marathon or Exxon, EOG, whoever.
- 53:25Instead of flaring it,
- 53:26why don't we, Crusoe, buy your gas for 25 cents at MCF?
- 53:31It sounds like a good idea.
- 53:33you make a little bit of money, you're not flaring,
- 53:36and we're getting really cheap power as a Bitcoin miner.
- 53:39So they were just trying to find cheap power.
- 53:41The incentives break down a little bit
- 53:43because the upstream producer in that case
- 53:46doesn't care about the 25 cents MCF.
- 53:50That's nominal to them.
- 53:52So if they have any operational issues,
- 53:54they will shut off the gas in a second
- 53:57because they don't care about the 25 cents at MCF.
- 54:00So there's a misalignment of incentives
- 54:03with the operator because they can just shut you down and if you have no gas off grid you know
- 54:09you're not hashing and you're going to have bad uptime that's one main issue the other is
- 54:14these producers aren't incentivized to lock up gas for long-term periods so they might only sell you
- 54:22gas for a year so you're you know you as crusoe whoever bitcoin miner you're spending a lot of
- 54:28capital to get your infrastructure out there. You're buying gas for cheap, which is great.
- 54:33But then in a year they might have a pipeline built to them and then they can kick you out.
- 54:38So, um, those are kind of the reasons that we don't just buy gas from people.
- 54:45And we were talking before about how you guys go and, and actually communicate, communicate
- 54:54around the incentives for both of these types of structures.
- 55:00Where would you say the legacy oil and gas industry is
- 55:06in terms of how receptive they are to these types of solutions?
- 55:14And what, in your mind, the level of understanding of Bitcoin
- 55:18someone would need to have in order to pursue?
- 55:21Yeah, I would say we are still in the first inning of understanding the oil and gas industry broadly. I think people have heard about this idea, or they've had someone approach them, maybe. But it typically has not gone well, for various reasons, it's hard to do. Or they just shut it down instantly, instantly, because there's still a stigma around Bitcoin. And they're like, that's a scam, we don't want to do that.
- 55:50That's often what we're up against.
- 55:54What percentage these days is the response that Bitcoin is just no-go zone?
- 56:02It's gotten better.
- 56:03It probably was 50%, 60% a couple years ago,
- 56:08and now it's down to 20%, 30% of just non-starter.
- 56:13And I think the reason, the way we pitch it is we say,
- 56:17it's not about Bitcoin mining, guys.
- 56:18like you have a gas problem this is oil field infrastructure that works that consumes your gas
- 56:24that monetizes it and oh by the way it happens to be bitcoin because this is what works in the oil
- 56:29field like we tell them if we could do ai computing we would um but bitcoin can run on starlink and
- 56:36there's no penalties for downtime so that's why we use it and they appreciate that they say okay
- 56:41fine as long as it works it solves our problem it can reduce our flaring you know problems or we can
- 56:48bring these walls on a production um that's what we care about so just because you mentioned it
- 56:54what describe the nature of the work and the the nature of bitcoin mining that allows
- 57:03a site to be viable for bitcoin mining upstream at the well site where it wouldn't work to
- 57:11set up an AI data center just because you brought that yeah so bitcoin mining the the computations
- 57:19at the ASIC level is very energy intensive you know running all those hashes per second
- 57:24but once you find the answer or just showing your proof of work it's a very small amount of data to
- 57:31actually transmit that to the to the network so we can run on Starlink because the bandwidth
- 57:36with required to run Bitcoin mining is much lower.
- 57:40If you're running complicated AI,
- 57:43you need high speed fiber.
- 57:47So that's why, that's a main reason why it doesn't work.
- 57:49Also in AI, you have to have perfect uptime.
- 57:52You're running these complicated LLMs,
- 57:54it's all above my head,
- 57:55but you can't just go down and lose a month of work.
- 58:00That would not be acceptable.
- 58:02So all of these data centers are on the grid,
- 58:05They have backup diesel generators.
- 58:06They have backup batteries.
- 58:08They have many redundancies to make sure they never lose power.
- 58:11In the oil field, you can't guarantee that.
- 58:14The well can go down.
- 58:15The generator will go down.
- 58:16Things just happen in the oil field.
- 58:19And then the third reason it doesn't work is the scale we're talking about is just much
- 58:23bigger for AI.
- 58:25You know, they're talking 20 megawatts plus.
- 58:28Each of our units is, you know, 1.3 megawatts.
- 58:31So it's connectivity, uptime, and scale.
- 58:37And if you think about the trade-offs of the structure where someone's effectively leasing your equipment versus putting the capital in...
- 58:54And also pairing that with the understanding that Bitcoin is still a non-starter for 20% to 30%, which means it's at least open to the conversation for 70% to 80%.
- 59:07but is there any credit financing in that is helping to bridge the gap between somebody that
- 59:17might want to own the asset themselves and take on the bitcoin mining risk versus not wanting that
- 59:23risk and just wanting to to pay you at least likely for the reason that it's solving or reducing a
- 59:31liability or unlocking say you know an oil asset yeah well the first thing i would say is oil and
- 59:37gas companies especially large ones they like renting oil field equipment anyways that's what
- 59:42they're used to they rent compressors they rent as much things as they can rent they like that
- 59:47model simply for the fact that it is in pattern for everything else they do on the purchase side
- 59:53um you asked about finance ability the generators are very financeable you know these are
- 59:59generators that have other applications outside bitcoin mining so there are banks credit shops
- 1:00:07they'll give you 80 ltv financing on that the asics are tougher you know back in 21
- 1:00:14people were doing asic loans that went very poorly so there's a lot less um credit willing
- 1:00:22to finance asics yeah nydig was lending against asics and now they're a large bitcoin miner which
- 1:00:29I think it was the right move for them, given the circumstance of what had happened.
- 1:00:33Yeah.
- 1:00:33They essentially became a Bitcoin miner when ASICs were at, I don't want to say dirt cheap prices, but were at a bottom of a period of high stress.
- 1:00:44Yep.
- 1:00:45But in the absence of financing, how does that factor into the decision in terms of the typical customer that you're...
- 1:00:59Yeah, since there's no financing for the ASICs.
- 1:01:01And then also, what's the relative amount of capital?
- 1:01:03If someone's looking at a site that's a megawatt or half a megawatt or 100 kilowatts,
- 1:01:12what percentage is the ASICs and the mining infrastructure and the tie-ins versus the generator?
- 1:01:21Yeah, so for a 1.2 megawatt site that'll consume 300 MCF a day,
- 1:01:26if they want to buy it with no financing and use top of the line asics it'll cost 2.3 million
- 1:01:33dollars call it that's the equity check that you're right if they want to finance a generator
- 1:01:39that can get down to 1.4 1.5 million but out of that you know all in 2.3 million dollar cost
- 1:01:4640 50 to 60 percent is the asics and the container um so and that's not financeable
- 1:01:56So they're going to have to equity fund a big chunk of that CapEx.
- 1:01:59And if they are spending CapEx on something, they're going to have to understand Bitcoin
- 1:02:03mining.
- 1:02:04So that's the purchase model is what we call it.
- 1:02:08We have seen more success with smaller operators that are willing to learn and willing to take
- 1:02:13that risk and say, hey, I do want to try to make $15 in MCF, which is if they buy the
- 1:02:18infrastructure, that's what they're making today.
- 1:02:19whereas if you're oxy or exxon it's going to be long putt to get approval capital approval
- 1:02:28internally to spend that kind of money on something so foreign as bitcoin mining
- 1:02:33so the the larger guys it's kind of ironic they have the capital but they don't want to spend
- 1:02:40capital on anything besides drilling new wells so they're they say hey i'll rent this it'll solve
- 1:02:45my gas problem and let's just see it work you know maybe in a couple years if they see it work
- 1:02:51they'll look into owning it but um the dynamic today has been the smaller guys are willing to
- 1:02:57you know take that risk they're kind of more the wildcatters um how much appetite has there been
- 1:03:03to do the work on bitcoin in terms of people combination of customers that you talk to on a
- 1:03:09day-to-day basis as well as folks that are in your network that are you know either working on
- 1:03:21financing structures for for conventional assets so where is that that appetite to dig in obviously
- 1:03:27i would always say that there's no more than one percent of people in the world that understand
- 1:03:30bitcoin so obviously it's a small base but yeah the oil and gas space specifically seems like
- 1:03:39the type of profile person that's more willing to take risk that the average person isn't yeah
- 1:03:46so i'm just curious um of of where and how you see people yeah i mean it's a really wide range
- 1:03:54we'll come across the the random person at xyz operator who's fully orange billed and they love
- 1:04:00this and they're pushing internally and those are always the best companies to work for because you
- 1:04:05have an internal champion who gets bitcoin who wants to try this on their assets so that's rare
- 1:04:11but it happens then you'll have a bigger chunk of people who are willing to learn about it the last
- 1:04:17really good questions we'll walk them through hash price walk them through how it all works
- 1:04:22and they actually want to learn about it and we'll send them materials and things like that
- 1:04:26we've gotten pretty good about educating these oil and gas people on bitcoin mining and how it
- 1:04:31works and then you know bitcoin itself um so maybe it's five percent of people are orange
- 1:04:37pilled a pretty good chunk of 50 of people willing to talk about it and then there still
- 1:04:43are some people that just hear the word bitcoin and just shut off um and like i said that number
- 1:04:49is slowly going down over time but there's not much you can do with those people um if they
- 1:04:55are just shutting it down day one.
- 1:04:58What do you think causes that to change
- 1:05:00in terms of
- 1:05:02shifting to looking at
- 1:05:06Bitcoin as either reducing a liability,
- 1:05:12whether they were flaring
- 1:05:13and now they have a better way
- 1:05:15to economize what they were previously doing
- 1:05:18to get rid of what was a waste product
- 1:05:22versus potentially enabling the ability to drill more oil in ones and twos,
- 1:05:33then maybe shifting how the overall industry looks at Bitcoin mining to be a solution to you know look at the map differently yeah totally i think the first step is just solving their day problems even if
- 1:05:50the person doesn't like bitcoin they're desperate for a problem in certain scenarios they have a
- 1:05:56well shut in gonna make a bunch of oil they can't flow that well because there's nowhere for the gas
- 1:06:00to go so if we bring them a solution for that gas they don't care if it's bitcoin mining um they
- 1:06:07might be skeptical but they'll say fine let's put two units out there let's try it we'll rent it
- 1:06:12and then once they see that work that'll slowly ease them into the fact that hey this is solving
- 1:06:18a gas problem let's learn a little bit more about bitcoin so i think the biggest step that we can do
- 1:06:24at least is educating these people on the operational benefits they'll get because that's
- 1:06:30what they cared about day to day i don't think it's our job to go around trying to orange pill
- 1:06:35people um that's probably not a good use of our time it's really just this is an oil and gas
- 1:06:41solution that's going to help you learn less right so if there's people that are already curious about
- 1:06:49bitcoin and get it we'll kind of nudge them down the rabbit hole a little bit um but for the
- 1:06:55skeptical people they just need to see at work i think and it's fair to say that in the current
- 1:07:01landscape there is still the no one got fired for buying apple stock or whatever the analogy
- 1:07:08used to be microsoft whatever blue chip yeah with the certainly the people at large operators
- 1:07:16but then to a large extent still folks that might work at private operators yeah i mean
- 1:07:23if you're a middle level guy at oxy you don't want to go to your boss and say
- 1:07:28hey i have this bitcoin mining thing you know if it works you're still a middle level guy at oxy
- 1:07:34if it goes terribly um you know you're gonna get fired how fraternal is that business though in
- 1:07:41terms of folks talking to each other yeah somebody seeing somebody take a risk
- 1:07:48that normalizing that it's okay for me to take a risk versus seeing it working yeah and i mean that
- 1:07:57is it's huge in oil and gas people are always looking at what their offset operators are doing
- 1:08:04the first guys that drilled horizontal wells people thought they were crazy the first guys
- 1:08:08that did the fracking you know george mitchell and the barnett people thought he was crazy like
- 1:08:13there's no way you're going to get that gas out of that tight shale but he just tried it it worked
- 1:08:18and now everyone is doing it and it changed the you know u.s global energy landscape it really did
- 1:08:24um so we think hopefully if we can get in with the right guys make this work they'll see it work
- 1:08:31their offset operators will see it work you know i was telling you earlier we we had meeting in
- 1:08:36midland and a lady said yeah we think we want to try this out we're curious to see it work and by
- 1:08:43the way we have three guys next to us that have the same exact problem um and they're very curious
- 1:08:49to see it work too so we really do think it's going to be a snowball effect we've already seen
- 1:08:54that with some of the early wins we've gotten inside the business itself you know if you are
- 1:09:00a large operator one group might see it work then their other their barnett group or their
- 1:09:06permian group will talk to the gulf coast group and say hey you know this is a solution that can
- 1:09:11work now so it really is a copycat industry um that might be slow to adopt things at first
- 1:09:18but once something's working people do it when you guys are thinking about repeatable opportunities
- 1:09:24for the reason that this is still so nascent it has the opportunity to solve problems in a big way
- 1:09:30but recognizing that you just can't go from where we are today to that future state and there needs
- 1:09:38to be demonstrated track record of both solving problems and the economics being sustained
- 1:09:43how do you guys because your time is scarce how do you guys create focus
- 1:09:55around where you're able to have repeatable success talking to the type of people that
- 1:10:02own the assets like that's a great example is it is it something of like there's a certain area
- 1:10:08And if one person has a problem or a profile of a well, then they're likely to have other opportunities around them.
- 1:10:15Or what are the different things that you, because you're not necessarily like needle in a haystack, but there's a lot of opportunities, but there's only a certain number of people that will say yes.
- 1:10:24And then how do you look at the board to then focus energy?
- 1:10:29No, you're right.
- 1:10:30Our time is scarce and also our capital is scarce on the rental side.
- 1:10:33Because in the rental model, it's our capital.
- 1:10:36It's our equipment.
- 1:10:37So we have to finance it with equity or with debt.
- 1:10:40So there's a limited amount of dry powder we have to go deploy rental units.
- 1:10:45So for that reason, we're very focused on focusing on the top 150 accounts for our rental product.
- 1:10:51The big public guys, the big private guys are who we are spending our time trying to get in front of for this rental product.
- 1:11:01And hopefully there'll be purchase customers one day too.
- 1:11:04the purchase products you know we're happy to put in front of anyone frankly because um the smaller
- 1:11:11guys are willing to spend the capital quicker than the bigger guys so that's kind of how we
- 1:11:16bifurcate what we focus on between the two the two products we offer one of the things that i've come
- 1:11:22to appreciate is just how dependent the legacy oil and gas business is to fiat financing and you
- 1:11:32used to sit on that other side at Blackstone have any of the conversations has that been a
- 1:11:40the nature of their credit relationships been an inhibitor saying yes and then on the other side
- 1:11:47is it a potential opportunity where they could tap financing based on their borrowing base non
- 1:11:55non-bitcoin yeah yeah no it's a great point i mean the oil and gas industry is built on
- 1:12:02barring basis reserve-based lending right so you have explain a little bit how that works
- 1:12:06yeah so high level you'll have producing wells you'll have some undeveloped acreage
- 1:12:11and the bank will look at all of that in totality they'll get a reserve report done so they'll have
- 1:12:17petroleum engineers look at all of the hydrocarbons that you have in the ground how much is producing how much is not producing And they look at all those cash flows again discount it back They say Hey all of your reserves are worth a hundred million dollars We going to advance you 80 of that in a credit facility So we give you
- 1:12:37an $80 million credit facility that you can draw and pay down as you wish. So that's a really key
- 1:12:44way that a lot of these companies finance themselves at the smaller level. You know,
- 1:12:48the bigger guys use it more as just kind of a working capital facility because
- 1:12:52they have access to institutional grade debt,
- 1:12:55like bonds and things.
- 1:12:57Um,
- 1:12:57but a lot of the smaller guys,
- 1:12:58their RBL is how they finance their business to drill more wells.
- 1:13:01The RBL is their revolving facility.
- 1:13:04So they basically have a revolver.
- 1:13:06Yep.
- 1:13:07And if the price of gas changes or the price of oil changes,
- 1:13:12how does that come into play?
- 1:13:14It'll get reassessed every year.
- 1:13:15So it's a great question.
- 1:13:17if gas prices go way down and strip comes down the value of reserves of your reserves is less
- 1:13:23so they're going to haircut what was 80 million the next year might get cut to 50 million and then
- 1:13:30you have less capital available it works in the reverse too um so it is a bit of a you know you
- 1:13:38don't want to ever be fully drawn your revolver on your rbl because that could happen you could
- 1:13:44get reassessed the next year and owe the bank money.
- 1:13:48And if, say, an operator that had a credit revolving credit facility
- 1:13:55or credit deals, loans owed to different banks,
- 1:14:02even if Bitcoin mining wouldn't be the principal activity
- 1:14:07that was being financed, maybe it's not financeable,
- 1:14:09in your mind or does it come up of whether or not that increases the perceived risk you know in
- 1:14:17terms of an operator maybe they haven't had a direct conversation with one of their banks but
- 1:14:22saying hey if we go down this path and do this they might view us as less credit worthy or greater
- 1:14:28risk does that come up it definitely comes it comes up all the time really i mean some guys
- 1:14:33will say hey my bank's willing to finance five million dollars that's no problem some guys say
- 1:14:39my bank would puke on this so every bank has different risk appetites or different views on
- 1:14:44bitcoin and it also probably depends on the relationship and the size of the business
- 1:14:48but some guys are very willing to put this on their credit facilities and use that a pretty
- 1:14:54cheap cost of capital to do this others are just it's a non-stop with their banks so
- 1:15:01um i mean even for our business like we to build out this rental fleet we're talking to banks and
- 1:15:08credit shops and things like that and a frustrating aspect has been you know the bitcoin on our
- 1:15:12balance sheet that we hold that we've accumulated over time is given almost zero credit in their
- 1:15:18eyes they're like we don't have much cash like yeah we don't have much cash but we have a good
- 1:15:24amount of bitcoin that you're giving zero credit to so um that's just a broader thing that i think
- 1:15:29will get better over the next five years once banks come around to the fact that it is the
- 1:15:34best collateral on earth you know um but i think we're still early it is interesting because i was
- 1:15:39wondering why the oil and gas companies didn't start to accumulate bitcoin not necessarily running a
- 1:15:46bitcoin treasury strategy yeah but then i came to understand that you know what you just described
- 1:15:57which was if you would get zero credit for it to potentially borrow against,
- 1:16:03that a lot of the free cash flow is swept through the credit facilities.
- 1:16:10And the way the incentives in that legacy conventional business are
- 1:16:15is that you're not incentivized to hold a lot of excess cash.
- 1:16:19Yeah, for sure.
- 1:16:21Based on how the credit agreements are structured.
- 1:16:23Exactly.
- 1:16:23so last question
- 1:16:28to wind up
- 1:16:31to wrap it up
- 1:16:32is
- 1:16:33over the next
- 1:16:37one two three years
- 1:16:39where are you guys focusing
- 1:16:42because I would presume
- 1:16:45everything is based on unit economics
- 1:16:46but it's also strategically
- 1:16:48of unlocking a much larger pie
- 1:16:50and so
- 1:16:52in terms of
- 1:16:54really getting to that next step function
- 1:16:58for this
- 1:16:59industry, subset of the Bitcoin mining industry,
- 1:17:04and the role that 360 is playing in it
- 1:17:07on the strategic side of your business,
- 1:17:11whether that's financing,
- 1:17:12just kind of what aspect of the business
- 1:17:15do you guys view as most strategic
- 1:17:17to unlocking, say, a 10x wave of growth,
- 1:17:20not based on anything about the price of Bitcoin,
- 1:17:22but just in terms of the market of assets or capital to become interested and
- 1:17:30view this face space as more investable.
- 1:17:33Yeah.
- 1:17:33I mean,
- 1:17:33we kind of all focus on geography first.
- 1:17:36Everything we've deployed to date has been in Texas.
- 1:17:39We're based in Austin.
- 1:17:40As we speak,
- 1:17:41we're putting our first deal in Wyoming with the largest producer in the
- 1:17:46Powder River Basin.
- 1:17:48And that's going to be important for us because,
- 1:17:51to your point earlier there's 10 other pads that are exact have the exact same problem there in
- 1:17:57wyoming is interesting because their flaring rules are much stricter than texas so the pain
- 1:18:01that producers feel is higher in wyoming higher in new mexico versus texas where they can just flare
- 1:18:07with no real penalties so we're focused on getting into new mexico getting into wyoming
- 1:18:12expanding their north dakota also has strict flaring rules um so focusing on the geographies
- 1:18:20where the producers have the biggest pain because it's easier to rent our infrastructure if you're
- 1:18:25feeling more pain. So that's where we're focused on on the geography side. And then on the financing
- 1:18:30side, it's really about building a track record with these rental. This rental product is new,
- 1:18:36like I said, showing people the track record. And then we believe and have already seen that
- 1:18:42it is a financeable product because most of the capex we're spending on these rental units
- 1:18:47is in this good collateral, which is generators
- 1:18:50that banks understand.
- 1:18:52And that's important for us
- 1:18:53because we don't want to equity fund
- 1:18:55our entire rental fleet.
- 1:18:56That'll be expensive from an equity dilution standpoint.
- 1:18:59So getting efficient financing on the rental fleet
- 1:19:03is another big goal that we have And then broadly I mean it just getting our name out there getting producers positive experiences and hoping that their offset guys see them and say hey this works
- 1:19:17This is a viable oilfield tool.
- 1:19:19It's not some far-fledged, crazy Bitcoin bro thing.
- 1:19:24It's an actual oilfield tool that works.
- 1:19:26So that's what we're working on every day.
- 1:19:29In the case where you mentioned in Wyoming, a large producer, just if you could, because you brought it up, what was the dynamic around that case specifically?
- 1:19:40Not needing to understand who customers are, of course not, but just because there's signal there of if it's a large conventional producer rather than ones and twos or smaller operators.
- 1:19:57yeah there's signal that's getting through even if it's not a you know fully seeing the field of
- 1:20:02bitcoin yeah that's a great question so this specific example very large producer this is a
- 1:20:09two well pad that they drilled i believe a year and a half ago and they produced the well when
- 1:20:15they first drilled it but then they bumped up against their flaring permit and they weren't
- 1:20:19able to get it renewed so they could not flare any more gas there was no gas pipeline so they
- 1:20:24had to shut that well in. So there's been no oil or gas flowing out of the well for a year and a
- 1:20:29half, which is very impactful for them. They can't flare the gas. So they are hiring us to consume
- 1:20:36that gas, combust it with our generators, mine Bitcoin with it. And that is all to allow them
- 1:20:44to flow their oil. So on the rental economics for them, they don't really care. They're going to be
- 1:20:50happy if they break even on the gas because their alternative would be flaring it. But they are
- 1:20:56unlocking 200 barrels plus a day of oil production that they can now flow given our units are up
- 1:21:02there. Someone like that, do you think that the mindset is let's do this one with the mind that
- 1:21:13they have a whole other portfolio where, again, it's not going to be every other well or every
- 1:21:20other asset that they own but evaluating what they do have like is someone like this thinking
- 1:21:26about it from that frame of mind of like hey let's test this out with the idea that we know we have
- 1:21:32other opportunities if this proves to work yeah they've told us there's five other pads they've
- 1:21:36already identified that are the same exact scenario and there's no line of sight in this area to gas
- 1:21:41pipeline being built so they want to see this work and then there's a lot of opportunity to grow with
- 1:21:46And then what it seems like,
- 1:21:51it seems like everything is generally backward looking
- 1:21:55in terms of this is how assets exist.
- 1:22:00These are where pipelines either exist or don't.
- 1:22:04So let's go out and find the wells that fit the profile
- 1:22:09that best map to profitable Bitcoin mining.
- 1:22:13Yeah.
- 1:22:16So when do you think, just kind of, if you're painting a picture out into the future, I know we're not asking to predict Bitcoin prices, but are we thinking five years, 10 years, 20 years, maybe no horizon at all until the legacy oil and gas industry uses Bitcoin mining to change their development programs?
- 1:22:43Yeah, on the drill program going forward.
- 1:22:46Is that just too far out to conceive?
- 1:22:49No, it's not.
- 1:22:49Or is it like 10 years?
- 1:22:50Maybe they're thinking we can go drill that well.
- 1:22:53Being basically the difference of, hey, we've got a problem that we didn't foresee.
- 1:22:59This can be a solution to it versus we can actually go drill where we couldn't or wouldn't have otherwise drilled.
- 1:23:06So it's already happening today with small producers.
- 1:23:10small wildcatters that understand this see the potential hey i don't need i can go wildcat in
- 1:23:17a new location and have gas offtake where there's never gonna be a pipeline so i can plan a drill
- 1:23:22schedule around that we've already had those conversations with people you know granted
- 1:23:27they're smaller producers mom and pop type people um but again that's where a lot of the innovation
- 1:23:34and oil and gas comes from.
- 1:23:36The interesting thing will be
- 1:23:37when is a big public guy
- 1:23:40going to build this into the drill program?
- 1:23:42And if I had to handicap a timeline for that,
- 1:23:46I would say, I'd say four years from now
- 1:23:50until a big public guy is actually
- 1:23:53planning a drill program around this.
- 1:23:56And I think that'd be amazing.
- 1:23:58I was thinking you weren't even going to give me a forecast.
- 1:24:01Four years.
- 1:24:02No, I think that just in the spirit of wildcatting, I would think that, because I had conversations four or five years ago with someone who had assets in the Haynesville, I think it was northern Louisiana, about drilling a well specifically to mine Bitcoin.
- 1:24:19and the idea that they might be the first to drill a well
- 1:24:23and then exclusively mine Bitcoin on it
- 1:24:27with the Wildcatter mentality
- 1:24:30was something of interest to them.
- 1:24:34Yeah, I mean, one of our clients drilled a well
- 1:24:36specifically to mine Bitcoin.
- 1:24:38So it's happened.
- 1:24:39Whoever the next person is is not the first.
- 1:24:41That's pretty amazing, though.
- 1:24:42Yeah.
- 1:24:42I mean, the fact that that type of activity,
- 1:24:47that the fact that the example that you gave in wyoming the fact that somebody
- 1:24:50in the world has drilled a gas well to mine bitcoin yep and in the future will drill an oil
- 1:24:57well with bitcoin being the first off take yeah is uh is a sign of how far bitcoin and bitcoin
- 1:25:07mining has gone totally and even if it's just a bridge right you can speed up your drill schedule
- 1:25:11yeah the pipeline might be a year might be the permanent solution exactly but it reduces uncertainty
- 1:25:16Yep. You can plan around it.
- 1:25:18Yeah. Oh, Sean, appreciate you coming downtown from your new digs a little bit, uh, west of
- 1:25:25downtown. Always enjoy conversations. The ones we have more frequently here, but excited for what
- 1:25:31you guys are building at three 60 and just all the innovation that's happening in the oil field
- 1:25:37and the gas fields from Bitcoin mining. So yeah, no, I appreciate it. You got to come by the new
- 1:25:42office and grab lunch with us sometime.
- 1:25:44Yeah, we'll have to do that.
- 1:25:45Sounds good.
- 1:25:46Appreciate it.