Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Warning: FED Pivot Rug Pull + Stock Market News 05 March 2024

Transcript

Warning: FED Pivot Rug Pull + Stock Market News 05 March 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Alex here and welcome to this live stream pre-market, excited for you to be here.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: We've got a ton of stuff to unpack today what the Fed's about to do, what the market's doing, what's going on with Apple and AMD and SoFi and Neo big news on all front.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I'm going to walk you through the data points.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to show you the data and the sources so you become a better and smarter investor.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: That's really what this community is all about.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I thank you for tuning in.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: I thank you for smashing whatever buttons might be in front of you and let's get cracking.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: I'll share my screen with you and there we go.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Are we ready for the rug poll?
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Somebody writes here we are.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: We are also running me and Winston in literally one hour, a live trading training in 90 minutes of unadulterated fun, where I will teach you my three step system of how we do this, how we made 126% in 2022, 105% in 2023, that's returning capital employed.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: And this year we're trying to get a bit fancy with our tracking.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: We're building a tracking software.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: We're trading with about 30K at the moment and we're made about $3600 on that.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: So we're up about 12% on the year so far and I spent about two hours a week trading.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: If you do it, maybe it'll take you three or four just to be transparent.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: But come and join me, I'll teach it to you completely for free.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Links down below in bright and blue Felix Frenslerorg slash webinar for those of you who can't read.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: You can't assume these things.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: All right, let's look at a few data points that relate to the Fed and then we get into the imaginal stocks.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Do you have any questions?
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: You know what to do.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Put them in the chat.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: We'll get to them in just a moment.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: So what's the Fed done?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: I put a video out on Sunday and I said the Fed caused all the inflation.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: And someone actually said why do you think it was the Fed and not the supply chain shorted which?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: And I was like, because the Fed printed 40% of every US dollar in circulation right now during the COVID year 40%, so the dollar's been around for a while.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: 40% was out in basically one year.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: That causes fricking inflation and they've just sort of kind of managed to get away with it.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: What they did is, for years they kind of kept well, they kept mortgages very low.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: They kept interest rates very low.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: They printed all that money, kept interest rates very, very low, artificially through until early 2022.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: And then they unleashed the dragon and mortgage rates went to seven and even 8%.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: As a result, inflation kicked in and if you look at real inflation, the blue line I've got on here, if you can see it, is home prices.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: So home prices have absolutely exploded as a result of money printing.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: So they've gone from let's draw a little line here, this is an index, it's not a dollar amount, but they've gone from, say, 210.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: To about 310.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: So they've gone up 30% as a direct result of money printing.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: And what hasn't gone up?
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Hourly earnings?
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Gone up hardly at all, and they've gone up less than even rent.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: So the poorest got poorer and the asset rich got richer.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: And that's Fed policy.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: That's Fed policy.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I keep saying it.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: That's precisely what they're doing.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: You print money, you make people who have assets richer.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I like it when they print money, right, I quite enjoy it, but I can see the unfairness in it.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: And then what's the knock-off, knock-on effect from this?
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Well, the economy is starting to slow somewhat, even though Biden is massaging all the numbers, and I know every president does the same things and not a Trump supporter because of it.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: But it's super Tuesday it should be exciting.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Today, the orange one will be on TV screens near you.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: And credit card delinquencies One of the early signs we look at when we see the economy is starting to go up in smoke.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: And right now we are back to levels that we haven't seen since just after the 2008, 2009 recession, and we're heading up.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: We're heading up pretty substantially, so that's not a good thing, right.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: And car loans well, we haven't seen car loan delinquencies like this since 2008, 2009 financial crisis, and that's just where we're heading.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: So there is this stuff brewing underneath it and it causes a perfect storm for the Fed, because young people can't afford to buy houses because their salaries are not high enough and houses have gone up so much in value because of all the money printing.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: And what can they do about it?
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: If they cut interest rates?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Yes, it makes houses possibly more affordable, but it also causes inflation, which they can't have.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: So they're kind of stuck between a rock and a rock.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Who is loving us?
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Old people yeah, old people are partying like it's I don't know 1969 or something.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: We've got excess retirees.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I love the excess part that the feds come up, but this is literally from the Fed.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: There are too many retirees.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: So my suggestion would be to send them to Mexico to sort of balance things out a little bit.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: Right, we've got almost three million too many retirees.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Send them to Mexico.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: And you know, immigration problem is solved, right.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: So why are they retiring?
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: They had assets, they had houses, they had shares, they had bonds and they are selling them and they're making money out of them.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: And this here is the difference between expected retiree numbers and current extra-hiree numbers.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: So way, way, way, way higher than expected.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: And this is them.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: This is chat GPT or something doing its best or some sort of.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: It's not chat GPT, what is it?
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know?
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Some sort of Adobe or someone like that who makes these.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So, look, I found that fun there Arving because they're like yeah, our assets are worth a lot and they figured out that they can beat inflation by being in stocks, right and okay, a few people are still buying gold and probably a few people are buying Bitcoin over here if they can figure out how to open a cold storage wallet or whatever, which is the ETFs are so important over there.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of part of the conundrum.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: And then you get the doom and gloom charts and I just wanna show them to you and explain them.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: So right now, the blue line is the current NASDAQ and it's exactly matching what we saw in the run-up to the dot com bubble.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: And then, after the dot com bubble, we went down again two thirds.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, sorry, two thirds.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: We went down.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: The Dow Jones index is doing the same thing it was doing in 1928 and 1932.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Doesn't matter.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: No, it doesn't.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Honestly, I used to be the guy on the banking floor who took charts and made them look like whatever we wanted to make them look like.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: And you can do anything with a stock chart literally anything.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: To make two lines look very similar is complete BS, so please don't pay any attention to this.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Yes, there are some similarities, but it's not the fricking stock chart, it's just two squiggly lines that mean absolutely nothing at all.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: So don't pay any attention to the charts.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Nvidia and Cisco that one's a little bit more interesting.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So they again have done exactly the same thing.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Well, not exactly the same thing, because we have two axes.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Again, that's how you can make them look the same.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: But Nvidia, cisco, if you remember in 2000, was the internet.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: The internet could not run without Cisco.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Nobody else was there, there was no competitors.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: It was the future and there was no way it wasn't going to go to like $1,000.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: It went to like 80 and then it went back down to 15.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: But I'm not saying the same thing is going to happen to Nvidia, but I'm just saying knowing history and knowing perspectives make you do less dumb shit Basically, so you just have a little bit more perspective.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Now the other thing we're getting out today is one ADP employment change.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: We'll have a look at that in just a second.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: We get tomorrow, rather, fed share power testimony.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow he's talking in front of Congress Senate.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: I know, I know, can't really tell them apart.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: They're going to pummel him with stupid questions.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: He's going to be hawkish.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to resist this.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: He can't go in there and say inflation, speak, we've done a good job.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: I don't think so, because if he did, this rally is going to keep going higher and higher and higher and he can't really really want that.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: He needs to slow things down a little bit.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: We also get job opening data tomorrow at 10 am.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: So expect Fed share power to be sitting in his seat and glancing at his phone.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: He's probably still got a blackberry or something.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Look at those numbers and he'll either smile or he'll grunt, depending on how they come out.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: We want less openings and less quits.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: That's basically what we want than expected.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: That's one thing.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Now, short fire round for our favorite stocks, provided we get the likes up to at least 200, 500 of you don't know where it is you can burn an entire calorie.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Allegedly smashing a like button Saves you a load of money that you would otherwise be sending to Denmark to move in, or disk, or to LLY or some other factory manufacturer.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: So what have we got with Apple?
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: Apple minus 24% iPhone sales In China in the first six weeks of the year, which is my handwriting is atrocious.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I should probably type, shouldn't I?
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: And that's not good.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: We've got.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: How much is the stock down by?
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Should we look?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Aapl minus 2.2%.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: What happened here?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: What happened here?
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Where did we go?
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: So Apple is down minus 2.2%.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Right now, sofi is issuing convertible bonds, which are convertible into shares, and the document is pretty complex.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: I just glanced at it, but it sounds like it's dilutive.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: They're doing some things to offset the dilution and so on, but it still sounds like some dilution, and till we understand what the document actually means, I will need to read it very slowly because it's bloody Chinese.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I'm kidding, it's not in Chinese, but it's pretty complicated the language.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: We're now down 6%.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: We were down like 8% just now, so we are still down, though minus 6%.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: Amd have a chip that they want to sell to China and the US government saying it's too fast, you can't do it, and therefore the stock is also down minus 2%.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Not terrible, but still minus 2%.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Nios reported earnings, which were pretty flat, bonds improved, but they're guiding to 6% year on year quarterly growth, or minus 0.1% from the last quarter to this quarter, and minus 0.1% growth is not the growth story that we want, even if margins are improving, and therefore the stock is down minus 2.6%.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: So there is your short fire round.