Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Michael Saylor EXPOSES What REALLY Happened To Bitcoin in 2025! | EP 1402

Transcript

Michael Saylor EXPOSES What REALLY Happened To Bitcoin in 2025! | EP 1402 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Everybody's been wondering why Bitcoin is on track to record a
• 0:03
  negative year in what was supposed to be a bull market.
• 0:08
  Well, Michael Saylor might have just given us some clues as to
• 0:12
  why Bitcoin underperformed in 2025 and what comes next in 2026
• 0:18
  in this new interview. So let's play you the first
• 0:20
  clip. We do got a couple clips for you
• 0:22
  guys really explaining a lot of the things I've been saying for
• 0:26
  a while on the show. But of course, it's coming from
• 0:28
  Saylor. I think he's got a little more
• 0:30
  insights on what's going on in the market.
• 0:31
  Here we go. It's been quite a ride this
• 0:34
  year. New all time highs now.
• 0:37
  I mean, when we interviewed you last year around around this
• 0:39
  time about a year ago, Bitcoin had just crossed 100K for the
• 0:43
  first time. Today it's trading at 87 K Why?
• 0:47
  Why did Bitcoin underperform this year?
• 0:51
  You know, it's, it's the world's greatest free market in capital
• 0:56
  and 85% of the Bitcoin, you know, notwithstanding all of the
• 1:01
  corporations they've been acquiring at the people talk
• 1:03
  about, you know, BlackRock and strategy get all the publicity,
• 1:06
  but 85% of the Bitcoin is held in crypto OG hands.
• 1:11
  We can't even identify them. You know, and I talked to the
• 1:15
  traders, they say that, you know, the, the derivatives
• 1:18
  market, the perpetual market drives this much more than spot,
• 1:22
  which means that $1.7 trillion worth of, of capital that can be
• 1:27
  20X or 30X levered is held by people that we don't know.
• 1:31
  And so I think that, that in the near term, their moods and their
• 1:36
  drivers drive this market. And, and I guess that's the
• 1:39
  beauty of free market capitalism.
• 1:42
  But I think that the more important point is the last 12
• 1:46
  months have been probably the best 12 months in the history of
• 1:49
  the industry in terms of fundamentals.
• 1:52
  It's it's profound what's happened since December.
• 1:55
  Michael Saylor definitely did not sell his chairs.
• 1:59
  Yeah. Yeah, those are some crazy
• 2:02
  chairs to say the least. But all right, let's let's break
• 2:06
  this down. Look, the first thing that
• 2:08
  sticks out to me is what I've been telling you about the
• 2:12
  options and the leverage. Now that Wall Street is in
• 2:15
  Bitcoin, it seems to be that most of the action is taking
• 2:19
  place in the leverage. You know, as as Taylor was
• 2:22
  basically saying in the 2030 X leverage on options and
• 2:26
  derivatives. This is where all the action is
• 2:28
  playing out. And it really does remind you,
• 2:31
  or rather I want to remind you of what Larry Fink said just
• 2:35
  recently. He's like, look, Bitcoin isn't
• 2:37
  going away, It's going to be here.
• 2:39
  What is the most interesting part for Larry Fink to say is
• 2:44
  like the problem is it's being run by the leverage here.
• 2:47
  And so I don't know if, you know, Saylor or Larry Fink are
• 2:51
  in cahoots here, if they got the same message or what, or if this
• 2:56
  is exactly what's going on. Is that what's really driving
• 2:59
  Bitcoin? I know Bitcoin is definitely a
• 3:02
  supply and demand, you know, as he said in the clip, a a truly
• 3:06
  free market. So spot Bitcoin does matter a
• 3:08
  lot. But as we saw all summer, you
• 3:11
  know, paper Bitcoin summer was was in full, full effect this
• 3:15
  year and we're starting to see now that that is where all the
• 3:19
  action is happening. There is a lot of liquidity
• 3:23
  hunting going on in the leverage markets right now.
• 3:26
  And that is where I've been telling you guys to pay
• 3:29
  attention to. That's what we need to be paying
• 3:31
  attention to currently in the markets because my my real like
• 3:35
  maybe more tinfoil hat view here is what I think might be going
• 3:39
  on. And this is just my opinion, you
• 3:41
  know, I this is just more of a gut level feeling here.
• 3:44
  This is more of Opti is the source here so take it with a
• 3:47
  grain of salt. But I think what is happening is
• 3:51
  since Wall Street has finally been able to get into the
• 3:54
  Bitcoin market in full for the first year, it looks like there
• 3:58
  is a battle right now from, as I've been kind of saying with
• 4:01
  friends, like the the crypto degen traders that have been
• 4:04
  essentially in control of Bitcoin for a long, long time.
• 4:08
  And then Wall Street coming into the space and being like, look,
• 4:11
  we want to be the center of the leverage.
• 4:13
  We want to be where all the options and derivatives are
• 4:16
  coming from. Now they are finally able to
• 4:19
  unleash these products. So This is why personally, I
• 4:22
  think we're starting to see a lot of liquidity being hunted in
• 4:25
  the leverage and the options and derivatives market because that
• 4:28
  seems to be the battleground right now.
• 4:31
  And I have been telling you guys about there's a very important
• 4:35
  options date happening in a couple of days.
• 4:39
  It is December 26th. So I do have a tweet here to
• 4:43
  kind of explain what that is. And then I will kind of go back
• 4:46
  to the Sailor clip. But it, it, it, it does seem to
• 4:50
  be a little AI written guy. So, you know, let let's avoid or
• 4:54
  let let's disregard the AI slop here, but this is what's
• 4:58
  happening. OK, so I'm not going to read the
• 5:00
  whole thing, but this this account right here.
• 5:03
  And I just picked the best one. There's a lot of people that are
• 5:06
  covering this exact scenario, this options expiring on
• 5:09
  December 26th, but I really, I, I guess I fell for the AI slop
• 5:13
  it. It just like it reads good.
• 5:15
  OK. And he goes, the reason Bitcoin
• 5:17
  feels stuck right now isn't sentiment.
• 5:19
  It's options flows over the next seven days, roughly 415 million
• 5:24
  in Bitcoin options exposures expires and nearly 287,000,000
• 5:29
  of that hits on December 26th alone.
• 5:31
  That's the key level when this much option pressure is
• 5:34
  concentrated on one day price gets pinned that that's not
• 5:39
  necessarily bullish or bearish. That's just controlled market
• 5:42
  makers right now currently don't want Bitcoin to move.
• 5:45
  If it goes too high, they lose control.
• 5:47
  If it goes too loose, too low, they lose.
• 5:49
  So they're suppressing the volatility and they're selling
• 5:53
  into every push the but they buy the dips just enough to kill
• 5:56
  momentum. And that's why these move looks
• 5:59
  fake. My my buddy actually texted me
• 6:00
  last night. He's like, dude, the Bitcoin
• 6:02
  price chart looks so SUS right now and it's like, dude, we, we
• 6:06
  know what's going on. They're they're trying to really
• 6:09
  take everyone's chips right now in the leverage market so that I
• 6:12
  think they can position themselves for a greater move
• 6:15
  moving into 2026. But after December 26th, that
• 6:19
  pressure disappears, which is going to be a very interesting
• 6:22
  time. So in the next, you know, next
• 6:24
  week on Friday, it's going to be very interesting to see what
• 6:28
  happens to Bitcoin. We kind of saw some of this
• 6:30
  action the last few days. We're at ten 9:10 AM where we'd
• 6:34
  expect it to dump. It actually started getting a
• 6:36
  little frothy, you know, pump in a little bit and then 30 minutes
• 6:39
  later it dumps. So this is going to be very
• 6:43
  interesting the next couple of days.
• 6:44
  I wouldn't be surprised if we are kind of flat for the next
• 6:48
  few days and then after next week is when we might be seeing
• 6:52
  some action. It could be volatile to the
• 6:54
  downside as well. Wait yeah, zooming on Nikko's
• 6:57
  face. So it goes.
• 6:58
  You don't instantly replace 287,000,000 of short dated
• 7:02
  exposure, especially during the holidays.
• 7:04
  But once it rolls off again December 26th Bitcoin finally
• 7:08
  trades without constant intraday control.
• 7:11
  And this doesn't guarantee a pump or a dump, it just removes
• 7:14
  the invisible hand keeping the price.
• 7:16
  Boring if it feels bro token. It's kind of is structurally,
• 7:21
  but we're going to see what happens next week, so that's the
• 7:24
  option. What?
• 7:25
  What's so funny? What are you laughing at?
• 7:28
  Dude, no one knows. Have we passed 30 seconds yet?
• 7:32
  Yes. Yes.
• 7:33
  No one knows. Yes, yes, no one knows.
• 7:35
  What the fuck is going on right? That's true, this is the TLDR
• 7:39
  right? Like even Sailor has no idea
• 7:42
  what the hell is going on right? This year was the year where
• 7:48
  everyone got humbled AF. Every single analyst, TR person,
• 7:54
  YouTube, ex influencer. I'm guilty of this myself.
• 7:59
  Got it. Completely and utterly wrong.
• 8:02
  And this is what Bitcoin does. This is what market does.
• 8:05
  If I told you in the beginning of 2025 with the Trump
• 8:08
  administration going in to power that gold was going to
• 8:14
  outperform Bitcoin and the S&P was going to outperform Bitcoin
• 8:19
  and silver was going to outperform Bitcoin, you wouldn't
• 8:23
  have believed me, right? So, yeah, I'm going to continue
• 8:27
  to harp on what I've been saying for the last, you know, couple
• 8:30
  weeks on this show. No one knows.
• 8:32
  Any idea what's happening with Bitcoin?
• 8:34
  I would say that's a positive and not a negative.
• 8:38
  And even Chad Saylor himself, like strategy, the big, the
• 8:42
  biggest, why am I here myself? Oh, the biggest, the biggest,
• 8:50
  you know, corporate holder of Bitcoin on planet Earth with six
• 8:54
  650,000 coins. He doesn't even know what's
• 8:59
  going on. Like he, he's like, look, it's a
• 9:01
  free market, which by the way, that's a great assessment.
• 9:04
  I love that take from Sailor, by the way.
• 9:07
  And it's a, it's a fantastic assessment because Bitcoin is
• 9:11
  the purest free market of any of the markets.
• 9:14
  Because if you compare Bitcoin with, for example, like any of
• 9:18
  the stocks that are trading, you know, on the NASDAQ or the New
• 9:21
  York Stock Exchange or any of the exchanges across the world,
• 9:26
  you know, there is no circuit breaker.
• 9:28
  It trades 2424 seven, seven days a week, even on Christmas, even
• 9:34
  on New Year's Eve, it's trading all the time, right?
• 9:38
  So if that is not free market, I don't know what is.
• 9:42
  And I think what Saylor was alluding to when he was
• 9:45
  describing that is like look like it is what it is. 80% plus
• 9:52
  of these coins are held by Ogs. I don't know what the hell those
• 9:57
  Ogs are doing. The derivatives markets come
• 10:00
  into play. And another thing that I'll
• 10:02
  mention to you guys is all this kind of weird price action from
• 10:07
  Bitcoin before the ETFs in 2024, which we like, oddly celebrated.
• 10:13
  I think it was because the Biden administration didn't want it to
• 10:15
  happen so much. I think that's why we
• 10:17
  celebrated, to be honest with you.
• 10:19
  But before the introduction of the ETFs, you know, Bitcoin was
• 10:23
  pretty cyclical, like kind of like followed this pattern and
• 10:27
  you know, you kind of knew when it was going to go up and blah,
• 10:30
  blah, blah, blah, blah. And it followed this cycle and
• 10:34
  this cycle since the introduction of these ETFs.
• 10:38
  And I think what you can do with the financialization of Bitcoin,
• 10:42
  which is, to be blunt, price manipulation, like I don't know
• 10:46
  if you saw that Opti earlier on this week where you literally
• 10:50
  had this crazy Bart candle within three hours, ladies and
• 10:55
  gentlemen. It happened 2 days in a row it.
• 10:57
  Went like at like 10:00 AM on the dot, We went from like 85 K
• 11:02
  to 92 K within like 30 minutes or something.
• 11:05
  We're back to 85 K. That isn't normal market
• 11:09
  behavior. Those are market makers.
• 11:11
  They're trying to shake you out of your bags.
• 11:13
  I think that's that's the reality of this.
• 11:16
  Everyone wanted Wall Street to come and pump their bags, but
• 11:19
  they forgot what Wall Street is here for.
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  Wall Street is here not to pump your bags.
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  Wall Street is here to pump their bags.
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  Wall Street is here to steal your bags, basically.
• 11:30
  Basically, and the way that they do that is to shake you out of
• 11:33
  your huddle, right? And they can do that either by
• 11:36
  messing with the price the way they they have been or making
• 11:40
  Bitcoin boring. And I think that that's what's
• 11:42
  happened this year is that Bitcoin and essentially became
• 11:45
  boring and like, here's the harsh reality, ladies and
• 11:48
  gentlemen, this is the tough pill to swallow.
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  And I've been getting a lot of lot of Flack for this in the
• 11:54
  chat. The last.
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  Oh, here we go. We're going bearish.
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  Oh, here's the bear. Here's the bearish.
• 11:58
  Sauce 2025 is a bear market year unless things change in 11 days
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  or 12 days, ladies and gentlemen, 2025 is a bear market
• 12:12
  year. This was a this was a bear
• 12:13
  market year. We're down for the year we're
• 12:16
  down for the last 365 days. I think it's like 12% or
• 12:20
  something and that's the reality now 2027 this is, you know where
• 12:27
  push comes to shove, right? Bitcoins never had two red years
• 12:32
  back-to-back right? So where do you see the price of
• 12:38
  Bitcoin at the end of 2026? Because the reality is that if
• 12:43
  it does follow the four year cycle, then it's going to take a
• 12:47
  year to reset. It's going to take from October
• 12:51
  to the next October. That's how historically how long
• 12:53
  it's taken to reset. Now do I see Bitcoin lower
• 12:59
  bottoming out exactly a year from now?
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  That would that would make that would make 2 red years in a row.
• 13:08
  That's never happened before in Bitcoin's history.
• 13:11
  But I think the the bull market that comes after that is going
• 13:14
  to be mind blowing, right? Well deserving.
• 13:17
  But you know, I'm just, I'm just observing what I'm looking at
• 13:21
  Like even the Chad sailor who clearly hasn't sold his chairs.
• 13:25
  He doesn't even know what's what's happening, bro.
• 13:27
  He has no idea what's happening. Nobody has any idea.
• 13:30
  Nobody has any idea all the TA people and I love them all.
• 13:34
  A lot of some of them are my friends on YouTube got it
• 13:38
  completely wrong. Like this cycle's different.
• 13:42
  It really is. It really is.
• 13:44
  It really is. Damn, the dark cloud is bad.
• 13:47
  OK, all right, all right, all right.
• 13:49
  We we did that. We did the, you know, the price
• 13:53
  view of what's going on though the very end of that clip of
• 13:56
  Sailor talking, he basically was talking about what we've been
• 14:00
  saying all year. Even though we've had the most
• 14:02
  bullish kind of news cycle, we've had a lot of good stuff
• 14:06
  happen in Bitcoin. Sailor literally went on for
• 14:09
  like 10 minutes explaining exactly everything that happened
• 14:12
  from an institutional perspective, a regulatory
• 14:15
  perspective, you know, the CFTC allowing Bitcoin collateral, all
• 14:19
  the banks coming in, all of the kind of, you know, Tailwind that
• 14:24
  are leading and building in 2025 that are kind of building what
• 14:28
  I've been calling a very strong foundation for why I'm still
• 14:32
  very bullish on 2026. And he's he basically was saying
• 14:35
  it's like, look, literally 10 minutes of explaining everything
• 14:38
  that happened this year. The key highlights, I think
• 14:40
  there were eight of them. And he goes on to say
• 14:43
  essentially he's like, look, I, it's hard for him to see how
• 14:47
  this isn't going to be a bullish setup moving forward like Nico
• 14:52
  Nico's still bearish on 2026. Sailor on the other hand, he's
• 14:55
  like I, I'm he's, he's more bullish on 2026.
• 14:59
  So I do have a little short clip of like kind of after he wraps
• 15:03
  that all that up to kind of put a, put a, a bow tie on what his
• 15:07
  view is for the overall year and where we're headed to 2026.
• 15:11
  I'll play that one real quick and then we'll be right back.
• 15:14
  I think if I was looking at the industry fundamentals, right and
• 15:21
  and you remember what we were talking about a year ago, right,
• 15:25
  you couldn't have, you couldn't have predicted any of these
• 15:27
  things. If I had.
• 15:29
  Predicted all this, you know, you would have said you're being
• 15:31
  too optimistic and I don't think I would have been, I don't think
• 15:36
  I would have been ambitious, you know, or aspirational have to
• 15:40
  predict everything that happened.
• 15:41
  But I would say it's exceeded my expectations at a fundamental
• 15:46
  level across the board. We couldn't have a more
• 15:50
  favorable setup for global adoption and institutional
• 15:54
  adoption of digital assets in general.
• 15:56
  And by and by the way, I've been very Bitcoin centric here.
• 15:59
  Of course. So that's that's sailors take
• 16:02
  away here. Again, this just dropped his
• 16:05
  view is essentially with all the things that we've been covering
• 16:09
  all year for Bitcoin. Again, as we've been saying on
• 16:12
  the show, it's been one of the most bullish news cycles from
• 16:14
  almost every front around Bitcoin.
• 16:17
  And yet the Bitcoin price has really underperformed all year
• 16:21
  long. But as he said, he's like, it's
• 16:23
  hard for him to see how this isn't a perfect setup for what's
• 16:27
  to come in 2026. See, huge institutional
• 16:31
  adoption, huge, most likely mainstream retail adoption
• 16:34
  coming up. It's like everything is setting
• 16:37
  up perfectly for what everyone's kind of.
• 16:40
  I think we're all kind of changing our tune now.
• 16:42
  I know Nikka's still bearish here, but it's starting to it's
• 16:45
  starting to seem like 2025 might have been that lost year kind of
• 16:49
  in terms of price, maybe a transitional year from how
• 16:52
  bitcoins reacted the 1st 16 years of Bitcoin to where we are
• 16:57
  now kind of crossing the Rubicon into a totally new era.
• 17:02
  It does seem like 2026 is probably going to be completely
• 17:06
  different than we'd expect in in all past cycles in all of
• 17:09
  bitcoins history. It is kind of setting up for,
• 17:12
  for something incredible, I think.
• 17:14
  And Nico saying 2027. I, I was thinking 2026, man.
• 17:18
  I, I think with everything that's going on, I'm starting,
• 17:22
  I'm starting to really, really be convinced that maybe it's not
• 17:26
  Q1. I don't know if you guys saw
• 17:27
  Howard Leutnick did a clip I think yesterday.
• 17:29
  He's like, look, guys, Q2 is going to be super bullish and
• 17:33
  the take away is like, OK, so Q1 is going to be absolutely
• 17:35
  horrible. It's going to be rough.
• 17:37
  But hey, moving into the second part of next year, maybe we're
• 17:42
  going to see all kinds of tailwinds come in.
• 17:44
  It does seem like the macro uncertainties are starting to
• 17:48
  resolve themselves. It's starting to, we're starting
• 17:50
  to see crazy stuff from Japan. They did just raise interest
• 17:53
  rates like the the money printer is about to really go into
• 17:58
  OverDrive. The free money coming out of
• 18:01
  Japan is kind of going off the table.
• 18:04
  Essentially the the theme of what's been happening towards
• 18:07
  the end of this year is that central banks can no longer
• 18:11
  ignore inflation and so things are going to have to be done.
• 18:15
  And then of course, the other kind of wrinkle in this is that
• 18:20
  Trump is most likely going to be running the economy super hot
• 18:24
  going into the midterms. It's like it it all, it's all
• 18:28
  kind of going in a very bullish direction because it's like, OK,
• 18:33
  they're going to run this hot and money printer's coming back
• 18:36
  on it finally seems like everyone that is coming from the
• 18:40
  institutions for Bitcoin has built these Bitcoin products.
• 18:43
  It seems like next year it's only going to increase.
• 18:47
  It's seems like now a lot of the leverage is about to get
• 18:50
  decreased. You know, it's about to get de
• 18:52
  risked even more. I don't know we'll we'll see
• 18:55
  what happens towards the end of this year.
• 18:57
  I'm not really expecting, you know, the the infamous ten day
• 19:01
  rally Santa rally this year, but I am starting to feel like the
• 19:05
  price is getting a little bubbly, a little frothy.
• 19:08
  We see a little more life back in the Bitcoin.
• 19:11
  So hey, we'll see what happened. We'll see what happened.
• 19:14
  It's still it's still under 90K. So, you know, not that bullish,
• 19:18
  but. You're still dropping opinions
• 19:20
  on the. Price bro I'm still getting
• 19:22
  bullish. It's all setting up for
• 19:23
  something bullish. Doug, no one knows what the F is
• 19:26
  happening bro. No one knows.
• 19:28
  What the? Yeah, that's why I'm making an
• 19:29
  opinion. Because no one knows.
• 19:30
  No. One knows what's happening.
• 19:32
  No one knows what's happening. Dude, this year is the year of
• 19:35
  humility. It's the year of, you know,
• 19:38
  expectations being a little bit, you know, a little bit watered
• 19:42
  down. And the reality is that Bitcoin
• 19:46
  right now it, it like, where is it going right?
• 19:51
  Like that's the question on everybody's mind.
• 19:53
  Where is it going? Is Bitcoin ready to take that
• 19:57
  next step? Right?
• 19:58
  We we have institutional adoption, retail is nowhere to
• 20:03
  be found. And I think that's really the
• 20:05
  big question. I think that's going to be the
• 20:07
  big catalyst. That's going to be what's.
• 20:10
  Really going to take Bitcoin to the next level, right is are
• 20:14
  these big banks 'cause this what Saylor has been talking about
• 20:18
  regarding 2026, are these big banks going to have interest in
• 20:23
  Bitcoin? Are you going to have more
• 20:25
  sovereign wealth funds buying Bitcoin?
• 20:27
  Are you going to have more nation states buying Bitcoin
• 20:30
  because Bitcoin at this market cap the amount of capital that's
• 20:35
  required to buy that Bitcoin off of the OG sellers that
• 20:39
  apparently think the pond he's over.
• 20:42
  Only you think the ponzi's over. I mean bro.
• 20:45
  Like, I mean sailor saying it himself, he's like, look, all
• 20:47
  these O GS are selling right. You know, we had the the
• 20:52
  announcements from like Galaxy digital, right?
• 20:55
  You had someone selling like 80,000 Bitcoin for quote UN
• 20:57
  quote estate planning. You have very high profile
• 21:00
  bitcoiners saying, Hey, I'm selling my spot Bitcoin and I'm
• 21:03
  buying the ETF, which I think is a horrible idea.
• 21:07
  But you know, I think that's really the next stress test.
• 21:10
  And you know what? I think that's a good thing.
• 21:14
  And the reason I think that's a good thing is because we have
• 21:17
  seen Bitcoin as this sure bet 100% guaranteed it's going to
• 21:24
  work out. And the reality is that's not
• 21:28
  how it works. Like there's a reason Bitcoin is
• 21:31
  considered a risk on asset. Bitcoin is considered a risky
• 21:36
  investment. And the reason for that, For
• 21:39
  anyone who were here before 2021, Bitcoin was not a sure
• 21:46
  bet. Back in 2016 and 2017, none of
• 21:50
  this was a sure bet. There was so much uncertainty.
• 21:54
  There was so much people like, Oh my God, this thing's going to
• 21:58
  get banned. The fork wars.
• 22:01
  Like we all got decadent. We got lazy AF.
• 22:05
  You know we got a pro Bitcoin present in the White House.
• 22:09
  The operation choke .2 point O was ended and I think we
• 22:14
  celebrated man, we celebrated we're like we won right.
• 22:17
  I I even tweeted this out earlier on this year.
• 22:19
  I said we won. It's just a waiting game now.
• 22:22
  I disagree now there's there's you disagree with yourself.
• 22:26
  Yes, I disagree with myself because now there's uncertainty
• 22:30
  back in the markets, which I think is good because that
• 22:33
  uncertainty is what brings opportunity, right?
• 22:37
  If the four year cycle is is is over, it's done.
• 22:40
  If people can't plan out Bitcoin heading into the future, if
• 22:44
  Bitcoin has two years read right again, it's going to create
• 22:48
  uncertainty. Those narratives that Bitcoin is
• 22:50
  dead, that Bitcoin can't go higher from here, that it's
• 22:53
  going to take take 20 years for Bitcoin to, to, to, to hit
• 22:57
  $1,000,000. Like I'm already seeing people
• 22:59
  adjusting their price expectations.
• 23:01
  You had, you know, a lot of people saying, oh, it's going to
• 23:04
  hit 150K or 200K by the end of the year.
• 23:07
  None of that happened. So people have to adjust their,
• 23:10
  their framework, their frame of mind.
• 23:12
  But I think that's all positive because again, it's uncertainty.
• 23:17
  Nobody knows you guys have you guys.
• 23:19
  I wish you guys or maybe you guys, some of you guys were
• 23:22
  there. I'm sure some of you guys were
• 23:23
  there who are listening. But I remember in, you know, I
• 23:27
  remember in 2016 and then early 2017, if you would have told me
• 23:33
  that Bitcoin was going to go from under $1000 to basically
• 23:38
  $20,000 by the end of the year, you would not have believed me.
• 23:43
  It would have been unbelievable. You would have been like, you're
• 23:46
  crazy. But it's because there was so
• 23:48
  much uncertainty. No one knew of what Bitcoin was
• 23:51
  going to do. That's being brought back.
• 23:54
  In the beginning of the year, we had certainty.
• 23:57
  We knew we were going to win. We knew that this was going to
• 24:00
  work out. That's how everyone was feeling.
• 24:03
  That was the consensus in the beginning of the year.
• 24:06
  And this whole year was about people getting humbled, right?
• 24:10
  And I think that's a good thing, right?
• 24:12
  And this is where I do agree with Opti and this is where I I
• 24:15
  am going to side with Opti long term.
• 24:18
  This is bullish AF, right? I love the uncertainty bring it
• 24:23
  back. It brings it back.
• 24:24
  It brings Bitcoin back to its early days.
• 24:26
  Is Bitcoin going to the next level or is this it right?
• 24:30
  That's the question. Is this it pack it up.
• 24:32
  You know, we built out the studio for no reason.
• 24:35
  Or is Bitcoin going to mature? Is it going to develop from
• 24:39
  here? Is it going to take the next
• 24:40
  step up? Is Bitcoin truly the best money
• 24:43
  the world has ever seen? Part of that interview that that
• 24:47
  Alex Holmes had with Michael Saylor was Alex Thorne.
• 24:52
  Oh my God, I'm so. Sorry, Alex, you're thinking of
• 24:54
  Bulldog Holmes. Sorry guys, it's a Friday.
• 24:58
  Alex Thorne, by the way, homie been on the show.
• 25:01
  Shout out to Galaxy also for recording that podcast.
• 25:04
  But my point is, is part of that interview with Alex Thorne and
• 25:07
  Michael Saylor was Michael Saylor was laying out what's at
• 25:14
  stake here, right? He was laying out basically
• 25:17
  like, look, what type of money does human civilization what,
• 25:22
  what type of money is human civilization going to use
• 25:25
  heading into the future? That is what is at stake.
• 25:29
  And I want that energy back because that energy was lost.
• 25:33
  We lost it this year. We lost it this year.
• 25:35
  We were celebrating too early. We were celebrating prematurely,
• 25:40
  right? And one of the things that I
• 25:42
  also want to like for all you guys to internalize and for all
• 25:46
  you guys to remember is this year people forgot what this is
• 25:51
  all about. This is about the separation of
• 25:53
  money and state. This is about individuals
• 25:56
  reclaiming back their financial sovereignty by taking self
• 25:59
  custody of their Bitcoin. And through the financialization
• 26:02
  of Bitcoin, people completely forgot about that.
• 26:05
  So bring back the uncertainty, bring back the FUD, bring back
• 26:10
  the fact that Bitcoin isn't 100% guaranteed to win because that
• 26:15
  is how you get greatness. That is how you become a
• 26:17
  huddler. That is how you pay your dues.
• 26:20
  So bring all this stuff back, man.
• 26:22
  I like it. And maybe this makes Bitcoiners
• 26:24
  weird, dude. Maybe it makes us like want
• 26:27
  pain. But I'm saying bring on the
• 26:29
  pain, bring on the uncertainty. If we go back to 30K, bring it.
• 26:33
  I love it. I want to see people get
• 26:36
  liquidated. I want that cheaper Bitcoin.
• 26:39
  But then I know Bitcoin is going to rise like a phoenix from the
• 26:42
  ashes like it always does, and we're going to head into new
• 26:45
  highs. The only question is when is
• 26:47
  that going to happen? And if anyone tells you that
• 26:50
  they have any idea of one that's going to happen, they're
• 26:52
  absolutely lying to you. The only people that accurately,
• 26:57
  I would say predicted or actually wrote a responsible
• 27:01
  report was the Fidelity report that we covered for you guys
• 27:04
  earlier on this week because they just completely sat on the
• 27:08
  fence. They're like, listen, it might
• 27:10
  be a good time to buy, but if it peaked, it probably isn't a good
• 27:14
  time to buy. But if you have a four to five
• 27:16
  year time horizon, it's still a good time to buy.
• 27:19
  Like it was just like a complete and total hedge, right?
• 27:23
  But again, it's because nobody knows.
• 27:25
  And I love that. I love that that that's back.
• 27:28
  That was part of bitcoins culture.
• 27:30
  That's part of what made bitcoiners so hardcore.
• 27:33
  And again, it's a naive, naive optimism, right?
• 27:40
  It's naive optimism. That's what it is, right?
• 27:43
  That's what it, that's what it meant to be a hodler in the
• 27:45
  early days when there was so much uncertainty, when you
• 27:49
  didn't know whether Bitcoin was going to win or not.
• 27:51
  That's what that was. That's what was missing.
• 27:53
  And that's what I see coming back with this horrible price
• 27:57
  performance that we've had this year and potentially bad
• 28:01
  performance that we're going to have next year in 2026.
• 28:05
  So anyways, Opti, that's my bit, bro.
• 28:08
  I don't know if you want to add more to that dude, but I like
• 28:11
  this. I like this.
• 28:12
  I like that we're feeling this way.
• 28:14
  Maybe this is a coat, but I like it.
• 28:17
  All I want to say is who is this we we're talking about?
• 28:21
  I I didn't forget anything all year long.
• 28:23
  I think you and I have been battling over this all year
• 28:25
  long. So don't don't don't bundle me
• 28:27
  in on this We stuff. This is an I thing here.
• 28:30
  This is a Nico thing here. OK.
• 28:32
  Oh, you're saying. You're saying it's a.
• 28:34
  It's a personal problem. Yeah, there's a personal
• 28:36
  problem, bro. Don't don't don't be all lumping
• 28:38
  the and on what you've been going through this year.
• 28:40
  But I'm glad you're coming to your senses finally.
• 28:43
  Oh that's BS bro. You were calling for these
• 28:47
  crazy, you know, Hey. I still call for the crazy price
• 28:50
  move though, right? But you can't.
• 28:51
  You can't play both sides at the same time.
• 28:53
  No, I'm not playing both sides. What I'm saying is I, I didn't
• 28:57
  forget what Bitcoin was about all year long.
• 28:59
  I didn't forget either. Well, I don't know.
• 29:02
  I. Didn't forget either, but I had
• 29:03
  expectations and I think you had expectations for the end of the.
• 29:06
  Year I'm still I'm, I still have expectations.
• 29:09
  For next year, so the bottom, the bottom hits when Opti loses
• 29:13
  hope, when Opti loses hope, that's when the bottom hits.
• 29:17
  Anyways guys, it's going to be an incredible show.
• 29:19
  It is Friday, Opti's going to be travelling next, next week, so
• 29:24
  I'm going to be holding it down for you guys.
• 29:26
  Should be, should be some good. Shows I I'm, I'm sure everyone's
• 29:30
  going to tune out because they can't deal with a week of
• 29:31
  bearishness, but enjoy. Enjoy Opti's why you can't Why
• 29:37
  you enjoy the bullishness while you can?
• 29:39
  We put a picture of Opti and we're going to have that picture
• 29:41
  of Opti left there the entire week and as a, as a remembrance
• 29:47
  of of Opti leaving for Christmas break.
• 29:50
  Yeah, he acts like I am. No no, no, no longer alive.
• 29:54
  No, no, no I don't bro. Why are you saying those
• 29:57
  horrible? Things I just look at it, just
• 29:58
  look, look, look, dude, it's it's like a memorial, dude.
• 30:04
  I think I think it's hilarious anyways, I do want to give a
• 30:08
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  All right everybody, let's start the show.
• 31:13
  We have tons to get to. We're going to be right back in
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• 33:05
  At the time of recording, the Bitcoin price is $87,280.
• 33:10
  Block height 928,586 market cap 1.71.74 trillion Bitcoin versus
• 33:18
  gold market cap 5 point six 5% decline from all time high
• 33:23
  -30.8%. All right everybody, so before I
• 33:28
  play you guys this video, I do want to read the a post by the
• 33:36
  samurai, one of the Samurai wallet developers who in our
• 33:39
  opinion was unjustly prosecuted, targeted.
• 33:45
  It's, I think it's inherently political, Keon Rodriguez.
• 33:50
  Unfortunately, we tried, we're scheduled to have him on the
• 33:53
  show earlier this week. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to
• 33:56
  make it. Obviously, for obvious reasons,
• 33:58
  he has to get his affairs in order.
• 34:00
  But I do want to read you, you know, his, his potentially one
• 34:04
  of his last posts on X before he surrenders himself to the to the
• 34:11
  BOP. So anyways, Keon says on X
• 34:16
  tonight is the last time. Will you zoom in a little bit?
• 34:19
  Zoom in a little. Bit yeah absolutely.
• 34:21
  Tonight is the last time I will sleep in my own bed next to my
• 34:25
  loving wife. For the next 5 years I will be
• 34:27
  housed in a federal prison at taxpayer expense for a crime
• 34:32
  without a victim. Just one of many victims of
• 34:35
  lawfare perpetrated by a weaponized Biden DOJ where truth
• 34:39
  and justice were sidelined in favor of a political anti
• 34:43
  innovation agenda. Where evidence was hidden and
• 34:46
  suppressed because it didn't fit the story.
• 34:49
  Highly partisan line prosecutors needed to tell where Supreme
• 34:52
  Court precedence was ignored by activist judges.
• 34:56
  Tomorrow I will surrender to FPC Morgantown.
• 34:59
  It is a minimum security camp. So you won't be, you know, you
• 35:03
  won't be behind bars. He will be in a in a prison camp
• 35:08
  which is good news, but regardless he's going to be
• 35:13
  separated from his family for the next 5 years.
• 35:18
  I will no longer be Keon Rodriguez inside that
• 35:21
  institution and said I will be a #11404-511.
• 35:28
  But outside of those walls my name will be kept alive.
• 35:31
  My loving wife, my family, my friends, all of you who have
• 35:34
  supported #pardon Samurai will make sure of that.
• 35:38
  I know walking into that institution that the story
• 35:41
  doesn't end there. I maintain hope that President
• 35:44
  Donald Trump is a fair man, a man of the people who will see
• 35:47
  this prosecution for what it was, an anti innovation, anti
• 35:51
  American attack on the rights and liberties of free people.
• 35:54
  I believe his team, Attorney General Pam Bondi, Ed Martin,
• 35:59
  DOJ and DAJ. Todd Blanche, and others truly
• 36:04
  want to end the weaponization of the DOJ that the previous
• 36:08
  administration wield wielded so effectively.
• 36:11
  The framers of the Constitution gave the executive the power to
• 36:15
  pardon for exactly this reason, to balance out and restore
• 36:19
  justice when no one else would. President Trump has proven he
• 36:23
  has taken that power seriously. I believe he will continue to
• 36:26
  wield that power for good. And pardon me and Bill, keep up
• 36:30
  the noise. Thank you for your support.
• 36:31
  See you on the other side. And here is a clip of Kion.
• 36:37
  You know, there's it should be non bias.
• 36:39
  It should be let's figure out the truth.
• 36:41
  And what I've discovered in this entire process is the truth does
• 36:45
  not matter. The truth is inconsequential to
• 36:49
  a criminal trial, a federal criminal trial.
• 36:51
  The prosecutor has decided pre indictment and they will, you
• 36:55
  know, force feed any evidence they can get into their
• 36:58
  narrative and that's that even if their narrative becomes
• 37:02
  untenable, they'll never admit that and they will go as far as
• 37:05
  they can go, even if they know it's not the truth.
• 37:08
  And that it, you know, again, I knew there was something wrong
• 37:11
  with the justice system. We all kind of know there's
• 37:13
  something wrong with our justice system, but you still think
• 37:16
  that, well, it's probably the best in the world, even with all
• 37:19
  its problems. And it's probably, you know, one
• 37:22
  of the most fair. It's probably better than a lot
• 37:23
  of other places. And then you go face to face
• 37:26
  with the Department of Justice and you go, oh, this is a clown
• 37:28
  show all. Right, everybody.
• 37:30
  So here's my take on this. The President Trump was a
• 37:38
  President Trump was a victim of law fair himself.
• 37:42
  He you know, there was multiple cases against him, lots of
• 37:46
  litigation. I I think that the Biden DOJ was
• 37:51
  extremely weaponized and to be honest with you and, and perhaps
• 37:56
  this is getting out of our lane a little bit.
• 38:01
  I hoped we would see more I heard I hoped we would see more
• 38:05
  accountability for the for what happened during the Biden
• 38:11
  administration, right, The crypto industry, the crypto and
• 38:15
  Bitcoin industry was like you had Arthur Hayes, you had CZ,
• 38:22
  you had Roger Verb. Not a big again, not I'm just
• 38:26
  not a fan of just the government, the government just
• 38:29
  jailing people in general, especially if it's unjust.
• 38:34
  But clearly all these persecutions, all these
• 38:39
  political persecutions, including a presidential
• 38:43
  candidate was never seen in American history.
• 38:48
  And President Trump has this unique ability as the founders
• 38:54
  included in the Constitution, unique presidential ability to
• 38:58
  give a full pardon. And I think that the Samurai
• 39:02
  Wall developers and the Tornado Cash developers are innocent.
• 39:07
  They wrote code, and they're not responsible for criminals using
• 39:11
  that code for illicit purposes. They wrote code to enable people
• 39:17
  to have privacy. Privacy is a fundamental human
• 39:20
  right. I truly believe in my heart of
• 39:23
  hearts that you cannot have freedom without privacy.
• 39:27
  So what is happening to him is completely unfair and unjust.
• 39:32
  So I hope that President Trump finds it within himself and and
• 39:38
  reminds himself as well that bitcoiners played a huge role in
• 39:43
  his election. And we thank him for freeing
• 39:46
  Ross Albrecht, who was again, unjustly the the, the, the
• 39:51
  sentence length that they gave him was completely unjust.
• 39:55
  But again, they did that to make an example out of him.
• 39:58
  And I fear, which is why this is so dangerous.
• 40:02
  Guys, it's not just about. The Samurai Wall developers,
• 40:05
  it's not about the Tornado Cash developers.
• 40:08
  This is privacy. Privacy is on the line.
• 40:11
  That's really what's at stake here.
• 40:13
  This is why we're making such a big deal.
• 40:17
  Earlier this year, we were talking about how we were all
• 40:20
  Ross, we are all Keon, we are all Samurai, we are all I don't
• 40:25
  know about that. It's just theorem, but you guys
• 40:28
  get the point. We don't want open source
• 40:31
  developers persecuted for writing code.
• 40:35
  Code is fundamentally protected by the 1st Amendment.
• 40:39
  This wasn't code that, you know, again, this wasn't code that was
• 40:45
  built for illicit purposes. This was code that was built so
• 40:50
  that people could realize some semblance of privacy, right?
• 40:56
  And they criminalize that, right, even though it's not a
• 41:00
  law. But, you know, and there there's
• 41:03
  some funky things that happened in the case as well.
• 41:05
  So I'm going to pass it on to Opti.
• 41:07
  Get off my soapbox. Opti.
• 41:10
  What are your thoughts on this my friend?
• 41:12
  Yeah, obviously. Just to start off, you know, I
• 41:15
  wish Keon and Bill the Samurai wallet dev's the best.
• 41:18
  You know, I wouldn't, wouldn't, don't want to see this.
• 41:22
  I didn't want to see this, but hey, it is what it is.
• 41:26
  And hopefully they do get parted.
• 41:30
  It was very interesting when I think it was 2 days ago, I
• 41:34
  believe it was. But you know, Keon did a post of
• 41:37
  like his last Christmas dinner. And one of the kind of takeaways
• 41:41
  that that I felt very powerful was is, you know, it wasn't just
• 41:46
  like some Anon person on the Internet, right?
• 41:49
  He's like, it's a dude with a family, you know, kind of
• 41:52
  showing. Hopefully at least more people
• 41:55
  notice. It's just showing that like
• 41:56
  privacy is for normal people. I know on the Internet, Internet
• 42:00
  or at least on Twitter and in the Bitcoin circles, it really
• 42:03
  it, it takes on this like super non thing and you know, it, it
• 42:07
  kind of makes it so that the normal person's like, oh, maybe
• 42:10
  I don't want privacy. Like it seems like a lot of bad
• 42:13
  people are doing it. Like I, I, it makes me feel
• 42:15
  weird. I really kind of enjoyed that
• 42:17
  part of, of this saga. Obviously it's bittersweet.
• 42:20
  It's it's a very sad kind of saga, but it's just like this is
• 42:23
  a normal dude with a family, you know, a, a wife like it.
• 42:28
  It's just a normal family dude. And his job was just very high
• 42:32
  pressure and it happened to be around privacy on the Internet
• 42:36
  in transactions around Bitcoin. And the parallels with what we
• 42:41
  saw with Silk Road, I think are becoming very glaring.
• 42:45
  And they said it in their key on said it in that clip.
• 42:47
  It's like when they want a certain outcome, they will fit
• 42:51
  the data how they want to. And we saw what happened with
• 42:55
  Ross Olbrich in the past where they made him out to be, you
• 42:58
  know, something that he's not. They wanted to make an example
• 43:00
  of him. And then of course, we did
• 43:03
  finally see Trump pardon him. Now, hopefully, we do see a
• 43:08
  pardon for the semi wallet debs. But when you really look at all
• 43:12
  the data and what Keon himself said, it's like they wanted an
• 43:15
  outcome and they got what they wanted.
• 43:18
  And it does seem to look like that.
• 43:21
  One of the big kind of battlegrounds right now is
• 43:23
  privacy. And that is super unfortunate.
• 43:26
  The precedent is not good moving forward.
• 43:29
  So hopefully we can get Trump to rewrite this and they do get a
• 43:34
  pardon. Obviously.
• 43:35
  He did say earlier this week that he will look into it.
• 43:38
  We'll see what happens with that.
• 43:39
  In the meantime, you know, I, I wish, I wish him the best.
• 43:42
  Good luck, you know, godspeed. And we will be holding it down
• 43:46
  until he finally gets released again.
• 43:49
  And the whole pardon, you know #pardon samurai movement is
• 43:53
  growing. It's getting loud.
• 43:55
  It's, it literally hit the Oval Office.
• 43:57
  So like I, I don't, I think this is one of those moments that
• 44:02
  Bitcoiners are going to just forget about.
• 44:04
  This is this is one of those very defining moments.
• 44:06
  Look, the the short of it is with the way that AI and
• 44:11
  surveillance is going, privacy in your money is one of the
• 44:15
  biggest issues that we need right now and where we currently
• 44:18
  are right now, it, it's just, it's not a good place.
• 44:22
  So hopefully we can rewrite this moving forward.
• 44:24
  Obviously, by we, I'm, I'm talking about Trump in the White
• 44:27
  House. So we'll see what happens.
• 44:29
  So I I wish him the best man it. It's truly unfortunate.
• 44:32
  Absolutely. I 100% agree with that guys.
• 44:35
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• 45:47
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  dot world store. So continuing the narrative we
• 49:34
  were we were talking about in the beginning of the show, check
• 49:40
  this out. Like when the banks are dropping
• 49:44
  price predictions, that's usually probably not a good
• 49:47
  sign. So it used to be influencers who
• 49:51
  drop predictions. Now it's multibillion dollar
• 49:55
  banks that are dropping Bitcoin price predictions.
• 49:58
  Ladies and gentlemen, if, if that is not a top signal, I
• 50:02
  don't know what is. And honestly, I, I was talking
• 50:05
  to a, a friend who's pretty well known in the industry like a
• 50:09
  couple days ago and I remember something that he said.
• 50:13
  It was just hilarious to me. He was like, Nico, It was
• 50:17
  probably pretty obvious when we were at Michael Saylor's 100K
• 50:22
  party and, you know, at the end there was like a party on the
• 50:27
  yacht and there was music that was probably pretty obvious that
• 50:31
  we were heading into on top, right?
• 50:36
  So yeah, I stick to my guns. I think the end of last year,
• 50:40
  December 24 and January of 25, I think that was the euphoria
• 50:45
  phase of this market. And I think we had this like
• 50:49
  this top that did happen in October, to be fair.
• 50:52
  OK, fine. But an increase that took ten
• 50:56
  months from 109 K to 126 Ki, don't think that.
• 51:00
  Oh, and in between we went to 73 Ki.
• 51:02
  Don't think that is incredible price action.
• 51:06
  So I think that this cycle we topped on apathy.
• 51:10
  No one knows Bitcoin's a thing right now like you look at the
• 51:14
  retail demand and institutional interest it's it's non existent
• 51:20
  like it was in 2017, like it was in 2021.
• 51:24
  No one cares that bitcoin's a thing right now.
• 51:27
  No one cares. So when I see these types of
• 51:30
  articles like it's just further confirms my bias.
• 51:36
  So anyways, amid recent bearish price action, headline on
• 51:42
  Citigroup's 12 month outlook for Bitcoin of 100 and excuse me,
• 51:47
  $43,000 or about a 62% upside from the current 88,000 quote.
• 51:53
  We forecast increase adoption of digital assets spurred by
• 51:57
  potential US digital asset legislation in the second
• 51:59
  quarter, with Bitcoin likely ranging into the new year around
• 52:03
  80 to 90,000 user activity value, City analysts Alexanders
• 52:10
  Dirk Weiler and Vingvo said in their joint report.
• 52:14
  They said to keep an eye out on the $70,000 level as key
• 52:18
  support, noting that that was roughly bitcoins price just
• 52:21
  ahead of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory.
• 52:25
  The base case 12 months out is for a sharp rise of 143,000,
• 52:30
  driven, they said, by revived ETF demand and positive stock
• 52:34
  market forecasts. Regulatory catalyst in
• 52:36
  particular passage and signing of the Clarity Act already in
• 52:40
  the House should drive further adoption and fund flows, they
• 52:43
  added. But there's also a bear case.
• 52:46
  They all hedge and the group pegs that target at a lowly
• 52:51
  78,500. That's right ladies and
• 52:53
  gentlemen, that's the bottom. Which means the actual bottom is
• 52:56
  probably like 40,000 or down or down more than 10% from current
• 53:00
  levels. They believe a global recession
• 53:02
  would be the catalyst. If there's a global recession,
• 53:04
  we're going way lower than 78 K. The bull case would be 189,000.
• 53:09
  Yes, take me there dude. It's crazy these big ass banks
• 53:13
  are dropping 189 K price predictions and more than
• 53:17
  doubling from current levels and that would be thanks to increase
• 53:20
  and investor demand they said. So there you have it ladies and
• 53:25
  gentlemen. Citi, Citigroup, which is the
• 53:28
  owner of Citibank, one of the largest banks in the world, is
• 53:32
  predicting $143,000 Bitcoin in the year.
• 53:36
  Base case. Base case 2026 with a a bare
• 53:41
  case of 78,000 and a bull case of 190,000.
• 53:45
  I'll take it. I'll take it kind of continuing
• 53:49
  building on what we were saying earlier on the show.
• 53:53
  I like it. The reason I like it is because
• 53:56
  if that were to happen right like if we reached 143K, the
• 54:02
  memes are broken, the indicators are broken expectations are
• 54:07
  broken the unknown this is this is unknown territory like this
• 54:12
  is it it would be excitement again.
• 54:14
  I would I would feel alive. I would feel excitement in my
• 54:16
  bones right and then also too heading into the future at that
• 54:21
  point, no one would know what Bitcoin would be doing right.
• 54:26
  So like think about oh man, I. Spit it out.
• 54:38
  There is a whole industry that has been built on the four year
• 54:41
  cycle, right? There's been a whole industry
• 54:44
  that's been built around that. There's been massive amount of
• 54:47
  indicators. There's been a lot of people
• 54:52
  that have been treating the four year cycle like gospel.
• 54:56
  If we see 143 K next year like I, I just don't want to say
• 55:02
  because I don't want to be mean. If you want to say it, fine.
• 55:06
  I mean, I don't know where you're going, but I'll I'll take
• 55:08
  it from here Actually. Can someone Fact Check me?
• 55:11
  I haven't looked at it recently. Maybe Niko can find it really
• 55:16
  quick. But what is the inflation
• 55:18
  adjusted all time high for Bitcoin?
• 55:21
  I feel like it's roughly around that 143.
• 55:24
  I think last time I checked it was like 130 or something like
• 55:27
  132. I think it was so like
• 55:30
  technically in inflation adjusted terms, we haven't even
• 55:34
  broken all time high at 126. But I, I haven't actually done
• 55:38
  the math and, and I, I don't have their, you know, I don't
• 55:42
  have that data on hand, but if my memory serves me correct, it
• 55:47
  seems to be right around that base case kind of you now going
• 55:52
  further, I will start with their bear case, which I think
• 55:58
  basically confirms what I've been saying.
• 56:01
  Look what before I even talk about their their predictions,
• 56:05
  what Nico said usually does hold true that when you're getting
• 56:10
  these very high Bitcoin predictions from these
• 56:12
  institutions, it's usually is a top signal kind of going back on
• 56:17
  that heuristic of like when the shoeshine boys talking about
• 56:20
  your stock, that's usually when the top is in.
• 56:23
  Now, obviously these banks aren't the shoeshine boys,
• 56:26
  they're the ones getting their their shoeshine, but it it's got
• 56:30
  the same kind of the the same kind of feeling here right now.
• 56:34
  That would usually be my kind of same heuristic view of this, but
• 56:42
  I think Daddio kind of hit it correctly, which is what I was
• 56:45
  going to say. Something very similar is like
• 56:47
  the bank should know because they're injecting liquidity into
• 56:50
  the entire system. So look, taking this one by
• 56:53
  itself, really I think it's just like, OK, whatever, another
• 56:57
  price prediction. But then there's also the one of
• 57:00
  Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan, and I think his was 173 next year,
• 57:04
  which is a lot closer to their bull case for next year.
• 57:06
  Obviously no one knows what's going to happen, but my kind of
• 57:11
  I guess more bullish take on all this is is really just like my
• 57:15
  my theme right here or my thesis.
• 57:17
  This is kind of what what I think is going on is that
• 57:21
  finally again, I've been a broken record.
• 57:23
  Finally the institutions are are able to get into the space.
• 57:27
  They finally launched all of their products.
• 57:29
  I'm guessing they're going to go into OverDrive next year
• 57:31
  marketing Bitcoin, trying to get more people into it, more
• 57:34
  capital flowing into Bitcoin. And so as much as I was wrong
• 57:39
  this year, and I really, I really thought it was going to
• 57:40
  happen, this I thought those numbers were happening this
• 57:42
  year. To me, it does seem like these
• 57:46
  signals coming from these big institutions are Yeah, yeah.
• 57:50
  Do you have the numbers? So I'll repeat, but yeah, go go
• 57:55
  on these numbers. So if the peak from 21, the peak
• 58:00
  was 69,000. If you adjust for inflation
• 58:03
  that's the equivalent of 100 to 105,000 today.
• 58:10
  So if 2025 peak was 126 K in 2021 dollars would be 105,000
• 58:18
  so. Wait, wait, wait.
• 58:20
  I think you said that wrong. So 126 in 2025, in today's
• 58:25
  dollars, 100. And 20126K today would be worth
• 58:28
  100 and 5021. Oh OK so it the peak in 20/21
• 58:34
  was 69,000. If the 2025 peak was restated in
• 58:41
  2021 dollars would be 100 to 105.
• 58:44
  OK OK so then we did hit inflation adjusted numbers.
• 58:47
  Now I wonder what what that is. Bro barely.
• 58:49
  I know. Barely, barely.
• 58:52
  Barely. Like barely like, not like not
• 58:57
  again not. It so it barely, barely was able
• 59:01
  to break out, which is I think like the, the bearish view on
• 59:06
  everything that, that we're saying, you know, 2025.
• 59:09
  That's why I've been kind of calling it the lost year and I
• 59:11
  forget where I got that from. I think it was some institution
• 59:14
  or some headline. Maybe it was like Forbes or
• 59:15
  something they called 2025 bitcoins lost year.
• 59:18
  And I'm like that's, that's a good framing.
• 59:19
  I like that but. That is a good title.
• 59:23
  Yeah, it's a good. It's a movie.
• 59:24
  Yeah, literally Bitcoins last year, last year.
• 59:27
  Well, and also not just because the price didn't do well, but
• 59:30
  because it seems like a lot of D Jens are getting liquidated and
• 59:33
  they're losing their Bitcoins. So.
• 59:35
  Multiple meanings there. OK, anyways, but back to kind of
• 59:39
  what I was saying in regards to I think where we are in this
• 59:43
  story, considering that all the institutions are finally kind of
• 59:47
  setting up, it's like the starting race, you know, they're
• 59:49
  getting in sprinting position essentially.
• 59:52
  It does make me think that these price predictions might be a
• 59:57
  little more accurate than we're used to, especially when you see
• 1:00:00
  what Sailor's been doing. Like I am fully convinced that
• 1:00:02
  Sailor knows something that most of us don't know considering
• 1:00:06
  he's been buying like billions of dollars of Bitcoin every
• 1:00:09
  week. Like he it feels like his
• 1:00:10
  stacking is is getting put into OverDrive because.
• 1:00:14
  He thinks he's running out of time to get Bitcoin at these
• 1:00:16
  prices. And I think that all kind of
• 1:00:19
  comes together when it does seem like the institutions are going
• 1:00:22
  to, you know, throw a bunch of liquidity not only into Bitcoin,
• 1:00:27
  but we're we're starting to see the money printers turn back on.
• 1:00:29
  So I I'm, I'm a little more bullish on these predictions
• 1:00:33
  because we're seeing it from some of the biggest banks now.
• 1:00:36
  Obviously, what do they know? This is their first, like
• 1:00:39
  technically their first or maybe second year in Bitcoin.
• 1:00:42
  So they could be, you know, selling their own bags here,
• 1:00:45
  selling their products. But I think it's going to be
• 1:00:48
  very interesting to see next year if these institutions are
• 1:00:52
  the ones in control, which is kind of what my feeling has
• 1:00:55
  been. This is kind of what my gut
• 1:00:56
  level view of everything is. It's like the institutions are
• 1:01:00
  in control now they want Bitcoin.
• 1:01:02
  You know, it's kind of like the classic shit corner truism.
• 1:01:05
  It's like, shit, coiners love Bitcoin.
• 1:01:08
  They just love your Bitcoin now. It's like Wall Street doesn't
• 1:01:12
  hate Bitcoin. They just love your Bitcoin.
• 1:01:15
  They're just trying to get Bitcoin out of you.
• 1:01:17
  So it's not like we really care about these price predictions.
• 1:01:20
  It's not like we're going to be trading.
• 1:01:22
  And these are are you know, where, where, where we have
• 1:01:24
  calls or whatever. Wait, is it whatever?
• 1:01:27
  It's not where we have cells. I always get confused with,
• 1:01:30
  with, with options calls and puts.
• 1:01:33
  It's not like we have sales at 143 or 176 or 189 or whatever.
• 1:01:38
  It's more of just like you feel a little better about yourself.
• 1:01:42
  You know, you're like, OK, I just feel better now.
• 1:01:44
  You know, my, my purchasing power is going up, you know,
• 1:01:47
  like my bitcoin's worth more. Hopefully now I get, I'm able to
• 1:01:50
  use it more. So it's not like with that
• 1:01:53
  we're, we're here looking for these numbers to sell out and be
• 1:01:57
  completely out of this. It's just more like, again, the
• 1:02:00
  higher the Bitcoin price goes, the more people get interested
• 1:02:03
  in it, the more people use it, the more people save in it.
• 1:02:06
  This is that positive feedback loop of Bitcoin.
• 1:02:08
  So I'm a as much as I am holding these price predictions from
• 1:02:13
  these big banks with like a grain of salt, I think there
• 1:02:17
  might be something to them if everything does align into 2026
• 1:02:21
  for a lot more liquidity into the system.
• 1:02:24
  So that's that's kind of the more the the the opposite of the
• 1:02:29
  bear, the bear take here look. Let's see what happens.
• 1:02:33
  And wait, wait, before we go on. I, I do find it funny that the
• 1:02:37
  last couple of weeks everyone's like, dude, they're, they're
• 1:02:39
  literally just performing here on the show.
• 1:02:41
  It's like Opti stays bullish, Nico stays bearish.
• 1:02:45
  And he's like, no, dude, guys, we are literally having these
• 1:02:47
  same conversations behind the scenes where Nico is bearish.
• 1:02:51
  I'm bullish. I've been making my case, Nico's
• 1:02:54
  been making his case. It's like we're not just doing
• 1:02:57
  this to perform. This is actually where we are
• 1:02:59
  right now. Should we press the button?
• 1:03:02
  Cypher punks right code. What's the intrinsic value of
• 1:03:06
  Bitcoin, you ask? Way more than 1,000,000 bucks,
• 1:03:09
  I'll tell you that much. Let's go.
• 1:03:11
  All right, end it on that one. End it at that.
• 1:03:13
  All right, everybody, let's get to the culture segment.
• 1:03:17
  We still have a ton to cover. Guys.
• 1:03:20
  This is Opti's last week before he takes a break for the
• 1:03:25
  Christmas week. He'll be back, I think.
• 1:03:28
  But no, I'm gone forever. It might be I'm done.
• 1:03:32
  I'm done. So.
• 1:03:33
  We're going to reminisce on on on Opti being no.
• 1:03:37
  No, actually I did have something, but can we can?
• 1:03:40
  We can we zoom in on, on, on. But maybe, maybe, maybe we do a
• 1:03:45
  like a 'cause I think I'll be back for, for the new year.
• 1:03:50
  I believe New Year's is what, Tuesday or Wednesday's the
• 1:03:53
  first. But I, I, no, I don't know, just
• 1:03:58
  just just, I'll figure it out as we go, go, go, go.
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• 1:05:49
  Head over to Bitcoin Ben dot IO join today.
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  Where? Bitcoin meets freedom.
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  All right, everybody, we all, I want you guys to drop in the
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  chat #opti lived here. Dude it it should say opti
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  worked here because I'm gone 2026 we.
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  All we all have to remember Opti, you know, we all have to
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  remember him. It was a it was a great.
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  Remember. Remember Me in the good light,
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  guys. It was a good phase.
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  Remember the good thing? It was a good it was a good
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  phase in in the show's history and we will never forget you.
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  Thank you. I'm I I feel weird about the
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  fact that you're making it seem like I'm not going to be around
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  anymore. I don't I don't even know how to
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  say it on on YouTube without anyways anyways I I was going to
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  do. Will you be back up, Dee?
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  But you know, let's keep it a mystery.
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  No, of course I'm going to be back.
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  Dude. I've been going all year.
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  OK, Give me, let me, let me, let me take a little break, guys.
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  Anyways, I was going to do like a, a audible here 'cause, you
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  know, but I think I am going to be back before the end of the
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  year. So we can do like a, you know, a
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  2025 recap for for just us here at simply.
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  But since you guys are going to be dealing with Nico all next
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  week, I do want to drop 1 bullish nugget here that I did
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  hear the bank say this is in regards to more like the broader
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  markets. But but I think this is this can
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  be attributed to Bitcoin as well.
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  So there was this note by Bank of America and it goes quote
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  soon all commodity charts will look like gold.
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  Bank of America's Hartnett goes bullish on commodities.
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  Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett
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  thinks that oil and energy stocks are the best contrarian
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  bet for 2026. After a long period of
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  underperformance, Hartnett says that the Trump administration
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  run it hot economic policy will see commodities boom and outpace
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  bonds next year year. He regards the despise oil
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  energy sector as the best contrarian trade out there.
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  After a long period of underperformance.
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  Now you're probably watching this and reading this and it's
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  like, let's just have to do with Bitcoin.
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  Well, 222 things here that stick out to me.
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  One, of course, we've noticed that Bitcoin is being treated
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  like a digital commodity. Also, of course, the digital
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  gold meme is super strong. So I, I think you know, Bitcoin
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  can be considered a commodity and of course it can be
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  considered digital gold or digital commodity and digital
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  gold. And then of course, the energy
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  sector part about this Bitcoin mining and energy is 1.
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  I am totally waiting for the, you know, petrosat.
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  I can't wait till oil is priced in Bitcoin and that's when we
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  really win. But I find this very interesting
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  because it it really is making everything I've been saying, you
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  know, one last bullish kind of view here so that you can hold
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  out throughout the next week of bearishness with Nico.
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  We know a few things. Trump wants to run the economy
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  hot. We're seeing the banks
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  essentially say hey, there's going to be more liquidity into
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  the system. We're seeing the money printer
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  start to turn on. We're seeing that Bitcoin,
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  whether you consider it a digital gold, a digital
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  commodity or energy backed money it, it's starting all to kind of
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  point towards a lot of tailwinds for Bitcoin.
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  I'm, I'm super, I'm still going to be super bullish going into
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  2026. I think 2025 was the last year.
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  Obviously all our models are broken.
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  Everything's been everything is out the window at this point.
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  We are in uncharted waters. I do fundamentally believe that
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  this is that transition year from the old OG Bitcoin holders
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  to a more institutional type investment moving forward.
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  Hence why I think all of the Wall Street products that were
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  being built, though I do not recommend them, I do see that
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  they are building kind of a maybe it's like the the
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  foundation to build upon moving forward.
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  And I think one of the biggest moves that I saw this year that
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  makes me even more bullish is not just the fact that Larry
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  Fink launched an ETF in 2024 and the the amount of inflows going
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  into the ETF. But the fact that it seems like
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  Larry Fink is trying to get his clients capital into Bitcoin
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  because they know the writing is on the wall that they're
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  literally trying to get into the exit boats right now.
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  You know, they're trying to get into the safety boats, get on
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  the exit route. And I think that's only going to
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  increase moving forward. So if we can consider Bitcoin a
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  digital commodity, which I think I think as of now, the CFTC has
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  like officially came out and called it a digital commodity.
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  So hey, commodities are going to follow gold.
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  Obviously, I think Bitcoin is a part of that.
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  So bullish there's there's a little bullish sentiment before
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  you guys are stuck with Nico the bear all week so.
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  Yeah, I just want to, I want to go down memory lane.
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  And you know, when I first met Opti, we, we actually, we
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  actually went. Dude, I am not, I'm coming back.
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  I'm not, I'm not. I'm not going to be UN alive
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  here. OK, I'll be, I'll be back.
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  I never said UN alive. That's just the vibe here.
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  You're just. Going to you're just leaving to
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  California and you, you're not not coming.
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  Back Dude docs. So when I first when I first
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  met. Opti totally docks.
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  It's not like my accent docks is me, but Nika just docks me.
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  Bro it's a huge state what are you talking about Anyways so
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  when I first met Opti it was 1987 and what what are you
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  talking? About all right, dude.
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  No, no, no, no. Just my dog.
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  When when I first met Opti, it was, you know, cut this guy.
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  We were we were at Bitcoin kindergarten Discord and back in
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  game. I used to just drop these rips.
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  20 minute rants peak. Peak 2020.
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  Yeah, and Surfer Jim, like, convinced us to go to a Bitcoin
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  conference 'cause we never used to go to Bitcoin conference,
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  'cause we thought like, they were kind of dumb, right?
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  Just a bunch of nerds. And he was like, no, you guys
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  have to go to the Bitcoin conference.
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  So the so the first Bitcoin conference we went to, which
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  like holds a very special place in our heart was was bit block
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  boom. And we, we went there and Opti
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  and I, we shared a room 'cause I, I hit him up.
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  I'm like, hey, dude, if, if I go to bit block, boom, like pause,
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  will you, will you stay with me? Pause.
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  And that, that's the first time I met Opti.
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  And like that was like the start of our friendship.
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  Did I have? Long hair then?
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  Yeah, you did. I had long hair then.
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  Yeah, and he and he wasn't so jacked how he is now.
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  That's true. That's true.
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  This is the pre Sal days and it was a start of a great
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  relationship. And then when I asked Opti to
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  join simply like 2 years into simply's history, it completely
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  changed. It fundamentally changed simply
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  Bitcoin before simply Bitcoin, I'm the go.
• 1:13:56
  Before simply Bitcoin was prerecorded, there was video
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  formats and it was actually Opti's idea.
• 1:14:06
  Dude I was yelling for like 3 months and he didn't listen to
• 1:14:09
  me. It was.
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  Obvious idea to take it live and he said, Nico, we could actually
• 1:14:13
  do this live and then I was and then, you know, we kind of
• 1:14:18
  figured some things in the back end because it's a lot harder to
• 1:14:20
  like do something live versus like pre recorded and you know
• 1:14:24
  you can. Pause and re say what you want
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  to say you can. Edit out all the mistakes and
• 1:14:29
  stuff like that. So it's it's significantly
• 1:14:31
  harder to do something live. And we took the show live and I
• 1:14:36
  think it was like the first episode that we did, Opti did an
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  unmasking cause. Opti yeah, it wasn't Anon guys.
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  Anon And I remember I was getting a call from my mom and
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  you know, my mom's, my mom's Hispanic and she has a very like
• 1:14:52
  thick, thick accent. She's like Nicholas, like why?
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  This guy looks stupid. What is he doing with the mask
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  and I don't? Think she'd ever seen me before
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  either. And she's like, you know that
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  that show is not going to grow, Nico.
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  It's not going to grow. They can't even see his face.
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  And and it was so funny. And then I and then I told Opti,
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  I'm like Opti, you got to, you got to.
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  No, you're like, yo, He did the like, look, you know, everyone's
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  yelling at us about the mask and they say it's not mainstream
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  enough. And I'm like, all right, fuck
• 1:15:34
  it, dude. I'll take the, I'll take the
• 1:15:35
  mask off. Like, I'm all in on this, who
• 1:15:38
  cares? But yeah.
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  And worst mistake of my life. And since then it's been
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  history, man. It's it's been history building
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  this together with you brother. It's been, it's been fantastic,
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  and the show's been running for 5 1/2 years straight, but it's
• 1:16:02
  been going live for three years straight, five days a week,
• 1:16:07
  which is gnarly. So all with all that being said,
• 1:16:12
  Opti deserves a break 'cause this is his first break.
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  In three years in a. In a very long time and I got to
• 1:16:20
  give him a shout out because he has been holding it down.
• 1:16:23
  I've been dealing with so many things in the back end guys from
• 1:16:27
  like just the business perspective that I do.
• 1:16:30
  Got to give a shout out for Opti for holding down the live show
• 1:16:35
  while I take care of other responsibilities and also of
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  course, my beautiful wife Sophia as well.
• 1:16:41
  So well. You know what I'm most excited
• 1:16:43
  about is seeing you deal with the live show next week.
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  That should be fun. I'm going to be hearing a lot of
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  complaining phone calls. I haven't forgotten dude.
• 1:16:54
  I I got I got my. Rep No, dude, you're a boomer
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  now. I got, I got my reps.
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  You're a boomer. I got my reps in.
• 1:17:00
  Yeah, yeah, yeah, Daddio gets it too all.
• 1:17:07
  Right, everybody. Hey, all right, before we go
• 1:17:09
  guys, I love you. Merry Christmas.
• 1:17:12
  I should be back for New Year's, but Merry Christmas to all you
• 1:17:15
  guys. I might.
• 1:17:17
  Did you buy your? Did you buy your return to you?
• 1:17:19
  Yeah, dude, of course. No, I'm, I'm literally one way.
• 1:17:21
  I'm never coming back. No, I yeah, guys, look, I know
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  how to, I'm a I'm an adult. I can buy a flight.
• 1:17:27
  But anyways, I love you guys. Like 3.
• 1:17:32
  All right, those are totally. Different things.
• 1:17:34
  All right, Hey. I love you guys have a good
• 1:17:37
  Christmas. I'll miss you guys next week.
• 1:17:39
  Oh, actually, I probably won't miss you next week because I'm
• 1:17:42
  going to be trying to enjoy my my break, but I'll see you guys
• 1:17:49
  in, I don't know, 10 days or something like that.
• 1:17:54
  I want to dedicate. The show to Opti Opti have an
• 1:17:57
  amazing dude. I'm I'm still alive, have an
• 1:18:01
  amazing, well deserved vacation with the fam on the on the West
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  Coast and hopefully, hopefully you'll be back on the East
• 1:18:16
  Coast. You better, dude.
• 1:18:17
  I don't know. I'm going to need some.
• 1:18:18
  I'm going to need some incentives to come back, bro.
• 1:18:22
  All right, all right, all right. Let's have it.
• 1:18:24
  Love you guys. I'll, I'll see you guys in a in
• 1:18:25
  a little bit, yeah. Have an amazing weekend
• 1:18:27
  everybody. No, you should close it out bro.
• 1:18:29
  You should close it out. OK, as I always say, it is, it's
• 1:18:38
  the Friday show. We do have a lot more fun on the
• 1:18:40
  Friday show. He's a little more casual.
• 1:18:42
  But like always, you know, get outside, get some sun on your
• 1:18:46
  face, on your eyes in the morning, eat some good food.
• 1:18:49
  And while I'm gone, of course, hopefully you are spending time
• 1:18:53
  with your loved ones. And if you're not, call your
• 1:18:56
  mother and your father, tell them you love them.
• 1:18:59
  It's all that matters. Manage family.
• 1:19:01
  So on that note. Could you do an auto pan to the
• 1:19:04
  wide shot? I want to see how that looks
• 1:19:06
  like from your close up. Oh, oh, the Auto Today's episode
• 1:19:13
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• 1:19:17
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