Latest / The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show / It's a Numbers Game: FAKE POLLS EXPOSED! Election Bombshell Rocks the Political World

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It's a Numbers Game: FAKE POLLS EXPOSED! Election Bombshell Rocks the Political World · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome back to A Numbers Game with Ryan Grodowski. Thank
0:02
Speaker 1: you guys for being here. You know, there are some
0:04
Speaker 1: days when I'm preparing for this podcast that it's like
0:07
Speaker 1: scraping from the bottom of the barrel. I don't know.
0:09
Speaker 1: You know, there's not a lot of data. There's not
0:11
Speaker 1: a lot of news stories. I don't have a ton
0:13
Speaker 1: of gossip. And I kind of rely sometimes on those
0:15
Speaker 1: lighthearted episodes where it's not political. And I'm going to
0:18
Speaker 1: get to some of those after, like, the election season,
0:20
Speaker 1: during the holiday season, because it's the holidays. We don't
0:24
Speaker 1: need politics every day of the week at that point.
0:27
Speaker 1: And then there are days like this. Mama said there'd
0:30
Speaker 1: be days like this. There are days like this. I
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Speaker 1: have tea. I have gossip. I have polls. I have
0:35
Speaker 1: early vote numbers. I even have a personal story that
0:37
Speaker 1: I'm going to feature at the end because I, Ryan Groduski,
0:41
Speaker 1: was in an attack ad during this election season. You
0:43
Speaker 1: cannot make it up. We have so much to cover.
0:46
Speaker 1: Let's get right to it. First off, Let's talk about
0:49
Speaker 1: the Vivek ad heard around the world. You know, for
0:53
Speaker 1: those who watch the show for a long time, I've
0:56
Speaker 1: been a very vocal critic of Vivek Ramaswamy. I don't
0:59
Speaker 1: obsess over it because I'm a good Republican. I want
1:02
Speaker 1: Republicans to win. But I say my piece. I say
1:05
Speaker 1: it like it is. And unless you've committed a crime
1:09
Speaker 1: or an outrageous scandal, I generally root for a Republican
1:11
Speaker 1: to win. Over the week, Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign decided to
1:15
Speaker 1: run an ad featuring Democratic opponent Amy Acton's mother. I
1:20
Speaker 1: have a lot of gossip about this and backstory. But
1:23
Speaker 1: before I get into that, let's actually show the ad.
1:25
Speaker 1: Here's the ad that came out.
1:27
Speaker 2: My name is Donna Arthur and I'm Amy Acton's mother.
1:31
Speaker 2: I worked at Children and Family Service Association, building one
1:36
Speaker 2: of the first two sexual abuse programs in America. I
1:40
Speaker 2: love my daughter, but when I saw her lying about
1:43
Speaker 2: her opponent, it's not easy for a mother to say this,
1:47
Speaker 2: but Amy has a serious problem.
1:50
Speaker 1: She is a liar.
1:52
Speaker 2: She lies about her past. She says she grew up
1:56
Speaker 2: living in a tent. None of that is true. She's
2:00
Speaker 2: lied her entire life. My daughter needs help, and she
2:04
Speaker 2: can't help you if she needs help herself. People can change,
2:10
Speaker 2: but first they have to tell the truth. And my
2:12
Speaker 2: daughter still isn't doing that. Don't vote for people who lie.
2:17
Speaker 2: Don't let her become your governor. If you think she'll
2:21
Speaker 2: make your life better, you're fooling yourself.
2:24
Speaker 1: It will only get worse. OK, so this is I
2:30
Speaker 1: just wanted my reaction upon initially seeing it. I was
2:33
Speaker 1: blown away. I was like, wow, this is shocking. Because
2:38
Speaker 1: there have been many times where family members have jumped
2:41
Speaker 1: into the political circus and criticized a family member. But
2:44
Speaker 1: oftentimes it's like a cousin. In the case of RFK Jr.,
2:48
Speaker 1: the cousins were coming out against him. Or in the
2:51
Speaker 1: case of like Paul Gosar, Congressman Paul Gosar, it was
2:53
Speaker 1: his liberal siblings. I think he had like seven siblings.
2:56
Speaker 1: It's like a huge family and they're all liberal except
2:58
Speaker 1: for Paul. But I've never seen a parent. It was
3:01
Speaker 1: pretty shocking. And I needed to know more. And within
3:06
Speaker 1: minutes of seeing this ad and doing just the minor
3:10
Speaker 1: amount of research, I was horrified. First of all, for
3:13
Speaker 1: those who are listening and not watching and have not
3:15
Speaker 1: seen this ad, Amy Acton's mother looks extremely disheveled. She
3:20
Speaker 1: looks like someone who's had a bit of a hard life.
3:23
Speaker 1: Amy Acton is very composed most of the time. She
3:27
Speaker 1: looks like she's somebody who has, you know, showered recently,
3:31
Speaker 1: which is not The same as her mother. I'll just
3:34
Speaker 1: say it like that. She looks like somebody who's had
3:37
Speaker 1: quite a hard life, quite disheveled, and she's doing this ad. Well,
3:42
Speaker 1: Charlie Hillou, I think that's how you pronounce his last name,
3:44
Speaker 1: from the National Review, broke a story about all the
3:47
Speaker 1: facts regarding the horror show that this mother is. The
3:52
Speaker 1: lie that the mother is claiming Amy has been saying
3:56
Speaker 1: her entire life involves Amy Acton's stepfather. This is from
4:01
Speaker 1: Charlie Hillou's piece. While Donna Arthur was married to Cletus
4:04
Speaker 1: Arthur in 1978 when Acton was 12, Cletus Arthur was
4:09
Speaker 1: charged with having sexual contact with Amy, documents show. Evidence
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Speaker 1: against him include a sworn statement from Acton's biological father.
4:17
Speaker 1: and Acton herself was called to testify as a witness.
4:20
Speaker 1: Following the indictment by a grand jury, Cletith Arthur skipped town.
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Speaker 1: Donna Arthur also has a criminal history, including pleading guilty
4:28
Speaker 1: to theft by deception while living in Pennsylvania in the
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Speaker 1: 1990s and was accused of animal abuse as recently as 2021.
4:36
Speaker 1: Following the ads release, Acton, who was locked in a
4:38
Speaker 1: tight race with Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy, put out a
4:42
Speaker 1: statement from her brother confirming the candidate's side of the story.
4:46
Speaker 1: After he was arrested and Amy and I were removed
4:48
Speaker 1: from her custody, our birth mother stayed married to Amy's
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Speaker 1: rapist until he died, Philip Stearns, the brother, said in
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Speaker 1: a press release from the campaign. This desperate, disgusting attack
4:59
Speaker 1: reveals exactly who Vivek Ramaswamy is at his core, a
5:02
Speaker 1: pathetic excuse for a man who's willing to hurt anyone
5:05
Speaker 1: so long as it gets him what he wants. The
5:07
Speaker 1: source of The mother's entire claim is her ex-husband, who
5:16
Speaker 1: was Amy's abuser. Like, I cannot I cannot stress enough
5:23
Speaker 1: going into an election two weeks out, less than two
5:27
Speaker 1: weeks out. The entire story, you don't want to make it,
5:31
Speaker 1: is about whether Amy Acton was or was not raped
5:35
Speaker 1: as a child, which there is ample evidence that she was.
5:39
Speaker 1: There was police arrests, police notes. There is court documents.
5:44
Speaker 1: There is newspaper clippings at the time. For anyone who's
5:48
Speaker 1: ever been involved in a divorce, and I'm a child
5:51
Speaker 1: of divorce, it is extraordinarily rare for a mother to
5:57
Speaker 1: lose her parental rights. Very, very rare. They have not
6:01
Speaker 1: seen each other. I think I think I read 40 years.
6:04
Speaker 1: And for anyone who is not a diligent viewer of
6:07
Speaker 1: this podcast, you all should be, by the way, subscribe.
6:10
Speaker 1: But for those who are not, I am spent a
6:13
Speaker 1: lot of this year calling balls and strikes and really
6:17
Speaker 1: pushing against bad actors in politics. Corey Mills for all
6:22
Speaker 1: of his misconducts. Jay Jones, I was a vocal, vocal
6:27
Speaker 1: opponent trying to get Virginians to elect his opponent. Jay
6:30
Speaker 1: Jones should not be in office as attorney general after
6:33
Speaker 1: saying he fantasized about killing children in front of their mothers.
6:36
Speaker 1: Tony Gonzalez, Republican from Texas. I was a vocal person
6:40
Speaker 1: trying to get him out of office. Graham Platner, I
6:42
Speaker 1: was doing breaking stories, calling journalists I knew trying to
6:45
Speaker 1: get the details. Eric Slawwell, you know, Democrats and Republicans alike,
6:49
Speaker 1: I've really been very consistent on calling out people who
6:54
Speaker 1: should not be in politics. I take running for office
6:57
Speaker 1: very seriously. It's not a platform for you to get famous.
7:00
Speaker 1: It's not a platform for you to get rich. It
7:02
Speaker 1: is a public service to protect and better this country.
7:06
Speaker 1: I really, really, really believe that. Now, I know, unfortunately,
7:09
Speaker 1: a lot of politicians don't believe that there was just
7:11
Speaker 1: an arrest for the Speaker of the House in Virginia
7:14
Speaker 1: for trying to enrich herself just on Wednesday morning. Unfortunately,
7:20
Speaker 1: it's not just the politicians, it's voters blind partisanship that
7:24
Speaker 1: has allowed them to reward really bad actors because they
7:28
Speaker 1: have an R or D behind their name. That's unfortunate,
7:31
Speaker 1: but I'm not going to fall in line like that.
7:34
Speaker 1: This ad was disgusting. It was gross. Vivek Ramaswamy is gross.
7:39
Speaker 1: He has always been gross. I'm very happy that people
7:43
Speaker 1: are seeing who he actually is. I've known about, I've
7:47
Speaker 1: heard horror stories from his campaign team on both the
7:51
Speaker 1: presidential race and the Ohio governor's race for a very
7:55
Speaker 1: long time. I will tell you right now, I've spoken
7:57
Speaker 1: to many Ohio consultants, volunteers, activists within the Republican Party.
8:02
Speaker 1: who have told me that they skipped the line. They
8:03
Speaker 1: refused to vote for Vivek, for governor. They voted Republican
8:07
Speaker 1: up and down the line. Besides that, I have to say,
8:10
Speaker 1: if I was an Ohio resident, an Ohio voter, I
8:12
Speaker 1: am neither. I would not be voting for Vivek Ramaswamy
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Speaker 1: for governor. I would write in, I wouldn't vote for
8:17
Speaker 1: Amy Acton because I'm not a Democrat, but I would vote,
8:19
Speaker 1: I would write in Christina Hagan, who's a state rep
8:22
Speaker 1: friend of mine. I would do something else. I would
8:24
Speaker 1: not vote for Vivek Ramaswamy. I wouldn't have voted him
8:28
Speaker 1: probably before this, but this would have been the tipping
8:30
Speaker 1: point throwing it over the cliff. Ohio has a super
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Speaker 1: majority Republican state legislature. If they keep it, Amy Acton
8:38
Speaker 1: is going to be a Democratic governor with essentially very
8:41
Speaker 1: little power. I'm not nervous. I'm not worried. I hit
8:44
Speaker 1: the phones on Tuesday night to try to find out
8:47
Speaker 1: what exactly led to the release of this poll. So
8:51
Speaker 1: friends of mine in Vivek World were saying, and not
8:56
Speaker 1: even Vivek World, just consulting world, were saying Vivek's team
9:01
Speaker 1: have been talking about this for months, that they had
9:04
Speaker 1: this story. They were apparently telling everybody if they had
9:07
Speaker 1: this video, they were going to release. And it's just
9:11
Speaker 1: my supposition, just my opinion. I believe this got back
9:16
Speaker 1: to Acton's campaign. The release of the Brothers video, how
9:21
Speaker 1: professionally it was done so quickly, how the response was
9:24
Speaker 1: written so quickly makes me believe Acton's campaign was waiting
9:29
Speaker 1: for this and had this ready for a response. And
9:32
Speaker 1: they knew exactly how they were going to play this.
9:34
Speaker 1: I believe that because they were, everyone was apparently chattering
9:37
Speaker 1: in Ohio about this ad. People around the campaign were
9:41
Speaker 1: very split about the release of this ad. A few
9:44
Speaker 1: people around Vivek were very supportive of it. A lot
9:47
Speaker 1: were very against it. The Vivek was very supportive of it.
9:52
Speaker 1: That's what I heard. Allegedly, Vivek was very supportive of
9:55
Speaker 1: this ad before it was Now they did some testing,
9:58
Speaker 1: some ad testing. That's really how this, how ad got released,
10:00
Speaker 1: because if you notice, there is no citation in the
10:04
Speaker 1: ad saying who paid for it, which you would need
10:06
Speaker 1: if you were going to release it on the air.
10:09
Speaker 1: I don't understand, as a consultant, if I had a
10:12
Speaker 1: controversial ad, what I would do is get a group
10:16
Speaker 1: of people, group of average people together, make them all
10:19
Speaker 1: sign NDAs, pay them for the day, because that campaign
10:23
Speaker 1: has got tons of money, and make them watch the
10:26
Speaker 1: ad and give their responses to that. But what they
10:30
Speaker 1: did was they released it publicly and polled it publicly.
10:34
Speaker 1: That's really messy, in my opinion. Abby Turner from the
10:37
Speaker 1: National Journal, she tweeted out this. I think she's an
10:39
Speaker 1: Ohio resident. She said, I received a poll testing in
10:42
Speaker 1: the ad featuring Amy Atkins, a strange mother, calling her
10:45
Speaker 1: daughter a liar. Comes from the market research firm Dynata.
10:48
Speaker 1: They didn't make the ad, they just were doing the polling.
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Speaker 1: Before showing the ad, the poll asked whether it's true
10:53
Speaker 1: Acton was sexually abused and lived in a tent as
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Speaker 1: a child. Then the ad played twice. After showing the
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Speaker 1: ad twice, the survey asked respondents how persuasive they found
11:02
Speaker 1: it and whether it would affect their vote. The poll
11:04
Speaker 1: still appears to still be live and accepting responses following
11:07
Speaker 1: the backlash of the ad.
11:09
Speaker 2: So....
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Speaker 1: There's no grace to give Vivek Ramaswamy. It is not
11:16
Speaker 1: like he did not know this. I mean, it's not
11:19
Speaker 1: like he didn't know the backstory. There was no miscommunication,
11:25
Speaker 1: no misunderstanding. Very intentional and not even just intentional. To
11:33
Speaker 1: put it out there, just the test alone to be
11:36
Speaker 1: so broad to the public means you know what's going out.
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Speaker 1: Vivek has stood by the ad. He is now putting
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Speaker 1: $ 4 million to support it. The bet that Vivek's campaign
11:46
Speaker 1: is making is that the ad will get more coverage
11:50
Speaker 1: than the backstory about it. And so because it is
11:53
Speaker 1: jarring to watch the first time you watch it, you're like,
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Speaker 1: I cannot believe that a mother is attacking her own
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Speaker 1: daughter in a television ad.
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Speaker 2: It is.
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Speaker 1: I've never seen it before. Private polling that I have
12:06
Speaker 1: seen had Vivek losing this race by a worse margin
12:11
Speaker 1: than you stood before the ad came out. I think
12:14
Speaker 1: that this was a Hail Mary pass. This is not
12:18
Speaker 1: the tactic you do if you're 10 points ahead. It's
12:21
Speaker 1: just not. I think that this is a throw that
12:25
Speaker 1: Vivek Ramaswamy's team did to, I think it's a throw.
12:27
Speaker 1: I don't follow football, but I think a Hail Mary
12:29
Speaker 1: pass is a throw. It's a pass, so it must
12:30
Speaker 1: be a throw. They, I think it's what they did
12:33
Speaker 1: to try and garner last minute movement before election day.
12:40
Speaker 1: I cannot overstate that. how many people around Vivek, both
12:45
Speaker 1: the presidential campaign and the Senate campaign, sorry, governor's campaign
12:50
Speaker 1: have just, and Doge, by the way, have just been
12:55
Speaker 1: horrified by his behavior, berating staff allegedly because hotel rooms
13:00
Speaker 1: aren't cold enough. Just a horror show of a candidate.
13:03
Speaker 1: I asked somebody, a very smart political consultant in the Midwest,
13:08
Speaker 1: I said, who knows all the players, I said, if
13:11
Speaker 1: Vivek Ramaswamy, do you think his team is voting for him?
13:14
Speaker 1: And they said, the consultant said to me, if his
13:18
Speaker 1: team was a precinct, he would win it, but it
13:20
Speaker 1: wouldn't be a landslide. I'm just saying. So the $ 4
13:23
Speaker 1: million ad where the mother accuses her of lying, it's
13:29
Speaker 1: just not your closing message. It's not your closing message
13:32
Speaker 1: before an election day. You want to talk about making
13:35
Speaker 1: life more affordable and better for Ohioans and how you
13:38
Speaker 1: live the American dream and you can make the American
13:41
Speaker 1: dream accessible for all people of Ohio. You don't have
13:45
Speaker 1: a conversation over whether or not somebody was raped as
13:48
Speaker 1: a child. And bring authenticity to her story knowing that
13:53
Speaker 1: the star witness in your argument is an alleged animal abuser,
13:59
Speaker 1: an alleged criminal, and allegedly stood by her ex-husband over
14:03
Speaker 1: her own children. Not smart. Just not smart, in my opinion.
14:07
Speaker 1: We'll see. Now, let's talk about the other major story
14:11
Speaker 1: that came out this week, which is also insane. There
14:12
Speaker 1: is a company called Wedge Polls. They have been releasing
14:15
Speaker 1: polls this whole year, giving Democrats huge advantages, and not
14:18
Speaker 1: just Democrats, but progressive Democrats. It turns out that they
14:22
Speaker 1: admit they're entirely fake. All their polls were fake. They
14:25
Speaker 1: claimed in their letter, quote, having previously worked in polling
14:28
Speaker 1: and research sector, we watched the public trust in polling
14:31
Speaker 1: erode alongside a rise of unverified low-quality methodology. We wanted
14:35
Speaker 1: to test a simple hypothesis. How easy is it for
14:38
Speaker 1: an entirely fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously,
14:42
Speaker 1: and expose how little scrutinization exists in the media and
14:45
Speaker 1: public commentary for polls? The short answer is it's far
14:50
Speaker 1: too easy. So many people covered these polls, including Nate Silver, VoteHub, which,
14:57
Speaker 1: I mean, I read both those things, and the New
14:59
Speaker 1: York Times. I want my audience to know from my
15:02
Speaker 1: background what I do when I present polling information to you.
15:05
Speaker 1: I never share polls from new firms or firms I've
15:08
Speaker 1: never heard of. I get those messages all the time. Oh,
15:11
Speaker 1: we have this new firm. I've never heard of you.
15:13
Speaker 1: I don't know your background. I don't know what you're doing.
15:15
Speaker 1: I'm not reporting on what you're saying. I'm not giving
15:17
Speaker 1: people hope or doom and gloom because you said it so.
15:22
Speaker 1: I don't believe in that. There's a handful of pollsters
15:25
Speaker 1: that whether or not they're wrong, I think they're actually
15:27
Speaker 1: trying their best to get the correct answer and then
15:30
Speaker 1: there's a lot of chaos around that but this is
15:34
Speaker 1: really i mean i guess they wanted to blow up
15:36
Speaker 1: the industry because they're really doing it they were really
15:41
Speaker 1: elevating far left firms and one of the candidates that
15:43
Speaker 1: they heard the most with releasing these polls was a
15:47
Speaker 1: center leftist named mallory mcmorrow she was running for the
15:51
Speaker 1: u.s senate in michigan against el saeed and Haley Stevens.
15:56
Speaker 1: She tweeted this. She goes, as one of the candidates
15:57
Speaker 1: featured in these polls, the infamous one in late June
16:00
Speaker 1: showed me plummeting to single digits, which was odd for internals.
16:04
Speaker 1: But the impact of the, here's the impact of the experiment.
16:06
Speaker 1: Donations dried up. Volunteers were devastated and pleading for guidance
16:09
Speaker 1: on what to do. Reporters hounded me with calls to
16:12
Speaker 1: drop out. Sure, a point was proven. Polling is broken.
16:15
Speaker 1: But tens of thousands of people poured their hard time
16:18
Speaker 1: and energy, hard earned money into something they believed in.
16:21
Speaker 1: And for a year and a half, it was like
16:23
Speaker 1: it was treated like a game. Our volunteers gave their all.
16:26
Speaker 1: And then some I felt I had let many of
16:28
Speaker 1: them down. Polls can. Polls, in my opinion, this is
16:33
Speaker 1: what now that's the comment. And Mallory probably would have
16:35
Speaker 1: lost anyway. But it was unfair. She would have lost anyway.
16:39
Speaker 1: But the polling institution has, as it's being created and
16:43
Speaker 1: as it's being crafted by the media, have become self-fulfilling prophecies.
16:48
Speaker 1: That's how people are treating polls. And I love polls.
16:53
Speaker 1: I love reading polls. I love breaking apart polls. We're
16:55
Speaker 1: going to go through some polls that I trust. People
16:59
Speaker 1: treat polls like they are votes when they are not.
17:03
Speaker 1: And they become self-fulfilling prophecies. Go back in time to 2005.
17:07
Speaker 1: This is long before social media, long before election Twitter
17:11
Speaker 1: and all the rest of it. Polls showed a very
17:13
Speaker 1: tight race in the New Jersey governor's race. Chris Christie
17:16
Speaker 1: squeaked by. Four years later, 2009, he's running for reelection.
17:20
Speaker 1: Polls show him with a landslide election, and he did
17:23
Speaker 1: win a landslide victory. But he actually won by fewer
17:27
Speaker 1: votes than he got the four years beforehand. Why? Polls said,
17:31
Speaker 1: no bother going out to vote. Election's over. Chris Christie's
17:35
Speaker 1: won reelection, and so he did. The media and polling
17:38
Speaker 1: institutions can absolutely become self-fulfilling prophecies, and some candidates do
17:42
Speaker 1: break them. Trump broke it in 2016. Perfect example. But
17:47
Speaker 1: it becomes very difficult unless you have a lot of
17:49
Speaker 1: money and momentum and energy and you're in a high-profile race.
17:54
Speaker 1: That's the problem with this. I don't think there's a
17:56
Speaker 1: way to litigate what wedge polling did, but the media
18:00
Speaker 1: that amplifies very bad polling and very new polling firms
18:04
Speaker 1: needs to look at themselves hard in the mirror. All
18:06
Speaker 1: data is not good data. You all need to check
18:09
Speaker 1: yourself a little bit. Just that's my own position on
18:12
Speaker 1: the entire thing. Okay, now let's start talking about some
18:16
Speaker 1: early votes and some polls that I actually really can trust.
18:18
Speaker 1: That's coming up next. All right, the election is coming
18:22
Speaker 1: down to the wire. millions of people have voted. Polls
18:26
Speaker 1: are out there chirping of what the election is going
18:28
Speaker 1: to be. Actually, it's a relatively quiet October as far
18:32
Speaker 1: as polling goes. There's not as much as I would
18:34
Speaker 1: expect this close to the election. So but of the few,
18:37
Speaker 1: I think it's important to kind of have this conversation.
18:40
Speaker 1: So Sean Trent, he's from RealClearPolitics. I've never met him before.
18:44
Speaker 1: I've never even spoke to him. He strikes me as
18:47
Speaker 1: a guy who tries really hard to be balanced. I
18:51
Speaker 1: think he's probably center left. maybe some positions on some,
18:53
Speaker 1: maybe he's just a centrist. He was really weird on COVID.
18:56
Speaker 1: I just remember him being all Mr. Vax, but like very,
19:00
Speaker 1: very pro-vax. But maybe he's just a centrist or central left.
19:03
Speaker 1: He actually did the congressional maps in Virginia, the fairer ones,
19:07
Speaker 1: not the ones, not the super lefty ones, but the
19:09
Speaker 1: ones we currently have. He teamed up with Emerson University
19:12
Speaker 1: to do a series of polls and house races. Emerson,
19:14
Speaker 1: I've said before, they used to be a joke. They've
19:16
Speaker 1: become a very good polling firm over the last few cycles.
19:20
Speaker 1: Now I want to preface something. I do not believe
19:22
Speaker 1: all these polls. I have a lot of spidey senses
19:27
Speaker 1: going off about some of these polls, but it's a
19:30
Speaker 1: serious person. Sean Trent is not a joke. He's not
19:32
Speaker 1: a partisan hack. Emerson is not a joke polling firm.
19:36
Speaker 1: So I want to bring the information to you and
19:40
Speaker 1: you can judge for yourself. So it's legitimate people. I
19:43
Speaker 1: don't think the polling is right, but that's besides the point. OK,
19:46
Speaker 1: the Democrats leading in a number of seats within the
19:49
Speaker 1: margin of error that Republicans really should be winning pretty comfortably.
19:53
Speaker 1: That's the overall narrative. Democrats are leading in these polls
19:56
Speaker 1: in Florida's 14th congressional district, where incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor
20:01
Speaker 1: is in a Trump plus 11 district. She's leading by
20:04
Speaker 1: five points over in Pennsylvania's eighth district. This is a
20:07
Speaker 1: Republican held seat. Incumbent Rob Brenchahan is down four points.
20:11
Speaker 1: This is a Trump plus eight district over in Arkansas's
20:15
Speaker 1: second district, a Trump plus 16 district. They have the
20:19
Speaker 1: Republican French Hill up four points against his Democrat opponents.
20:23
Speaker 1: In the newly created Texas's 35th district, another Trump plus
20:27
Speaker 1: 11 seat. The Democrat opponent to Republican Carlos de la
20:31
Speaker 1: Cruz is up by two points. Over in Iowa's second district,
20:34
Speaker 1: the Republicans, Ashley Hinson, she's running for U.S. Senate, so
20:37
Speaker 1: it's an open seat. In the open Iowa's second congressional district,
20:40
Speaker 1: Joe Mitchell, the Republican, is down by three points and
20:43
Speaker 1: another Trump plus 10 seat. Over in Arizona, Republican Eli Crane,
20:48
Speaker 1: he's the incumbent. He's in a Trump plus 15 district.
20:50
Speaker 1: He is down by two points. points against his Democrat challenger.
20:54
Speaker 1: In Michigan's 7th district, a Trump plus 1 district, the
20:57
Speaker 1: Democrat leads Tom Barrett by 8 points. I find this
21:01
Speaker 1: so hard to believe. It's because the Democrat is such
21:04
Speaker 1: a lunatic. I just, I find this very, very hard
21:06
Speaker 1: to believe. We'll see them. In North Carolina's 11th district,
21:11
Speaker 1: this is in Appalachia, an open seat Republican, Jennifer Balcom
21:15
Speaker 1: is down 13 points in a Trump plus 9 district.
21:18
Speaker 1: This would be one of the biggest swings in the
21:20
Speaker 1: entire country of 24 points. It is also a seat
21:23
Speaker 1: where both the current Republican incumbent and the previous Republican
21:27
Speaker 1: incumbent had scandals leading to one's defeat in the primary
21:31
Speaker 1: and the other one having to not seek reelection. In
21:35
Speaker 1: Montana's first district, the Republican Erin Flint is down by
21:37
Speaker 1: four points in a Trump plus 11 district. And lastly,
21:40
Speaker 1: in Missouri's second district, Ann Wagner, a longtime incumbent in
21:44
Speaker 1: the suburbs of St. Louis, is down five points in
21:46
Speaker 1: her Trump plus eight district. Some of the swings are
21:50
Speaker 1: so large that they suggest this is not a Democrat
21:54
Speaker 1: plus nine or 10 year, as many pollsters are suggesting.
21:56
Speaker 1: They're saying it's like a Democrat 14, 15 year. I
21:59
Speaker 1: just find that really, really hard to believe. If it
22:04
Speaker 1: is true, and I'm not saying it is, but if
22:07
Speaker 1: it is, Democrats could have 235 to 240 seats after November.
22:10
Speaker 1: It will be a wallop if it is true. Once again,
22:17
Speaker 1: Not saying it is, just saying if it is. Speaking
22:20
Speaker 1: of blue tsunami, the New York Times-Siena University poll released
22:24
Speaker 1: their last generic ballot of the year. They say Democrats
22:27
Speaker 1: are leading by 11 points in the generic ballot, their
22:30
Speaker 1: widest lead ever. Democrats have big margins among key groups. Women,
22:34
Speaker 1: they're up 21 points. Voters under 30, up 45 points. Blacks,
22:39
Speaker 1: up 71 points. That's actually not that high for Democrats,
22:41
Speaker 1: but it's still a large number. Latinos, up 32 points. Asians,
22:45
Speaker 1: up 37 points. whites with a college degree up 19
22:49
Speaker 1: points and independents up 22 points. Interestingly enough, the lead
22:54
Speaker 1: for the Democrats in the Senate in that same poll
22:57
Speaker 1: is only D plus four because the map is so
23:00
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly favoring Republican states. It means the margins are much
23:04
Speaker 1: closer in the Senate, but we all kind of knew that. Now,
23:06
Speaker 1: in 2024, the New York Times poll was in the
23:09
Speaker 1: margin of error. It was favoring Democrats by 2.8 points,
23:14
Speaker 1: which is in the margin. Our margin is three and
23:16
Speaker 1: a half points. So perfectly acceptable answer to say you
23:20
Speaker 1: were correct in the election. But 2.8 points is significant.
23:24
Speaker 1: If it's 2.8 points in this election, it's a D
23:26
Speaker 1: plus eight election. A lot of these people are going
23:29
Speaker 1: to survive if it's a 2.8 swing in the Senate.
23:31
Speaker 1: And it's only D plus one overall. A lot of
23:33
Speaker 1: Republicans are going to survive. So It doesn't give us
23:37
Speaker 1: as much like the Republicans will hold the Senate with
23:39
Speaker 1: that kind of a map. You know, it doesn't it's
23:41
Speaker 1: a big enough. The margin of error is big enough
23:44
Speaker 1: where it could say blue tsunami. No one survives or
23:48
Speaker 1: a Democrat wave. But Republicans hold the Senate at the
23:52
Speaker 1: end of the day. I'll also give the New York Times,
23:54
Speaker 1: Santa Paul, like, you know, equal coverage in 2022. They
23:59
Speaker 1: oversampled in Republicans over by a point. So once again,
24:03
Speaker 1: margin of error, but the margins matter really big if
24:06
Speaker 1: it's a three-point margin. But listen, they do good stuff.
24:10
Speaker 1: So give them the credit where they deserve, and we'll
24:12
Speaker 1: see if they're right. But as I always say, polls
24:15
Speaker 1: don't vote, people vote. So let's go through some early
24:18
Speaker 1: voting numbers. Over 18 million people nationwide have already cast
24:22
Speaker 1: their ballot. I'm going to compare some of these votes
24:25
Speaker 1: numbers under these important states to 2022. So over in Iowa,
24:29
Speaker 1: over 150,000 people have voted. Democrats hold a 34,000 vote advantage, 20%
24:36
Speaker 1: more than Republicans. Now, this is also including independents in
24:39
Speaker 1: the mix. So it's not 60-40. It's kind of like
24:42
Speaker 1: 40-20 or whatever. The good thing for Republicans, although this
24:49
Speaker 1: lead is very large for Democrats, it's ticking down. At
24:52
Speaker 1: day one, it was Democrats had a 28% lead. Now
24:56
Speaker 1: they're down to 20. And that's really the story of
24:59
Speaker 1: early voting. We're seeing Democrats show up on the first
25:01
Speaker 1: and second days of early voting in almost presidential numbers,
25:05
Speaker 1: just gigantic numbers across the entire country. As they cast
25:10
Speaker 1: their ballots and they can't cast the second one, the
25:12
Speaker 1: numbers are trickling down and Republicans are starting to realize, oh,
25:15
Speaker 1: I got to go vote. let me vote early, which
25:18
Speaker 1: is what people should be doing. If you're waiting for
25:20
Speaker 1: election day, go vote early. In North Carolina, more than
25:23
Speaker 1: 1.1 million people have voted. Democrats have a 20.5% lead,
25:28
Speaker 1: which is gigantic, similar to Iowa. Obviously, more people voted
25:32
Speaker 1: in North Carolina because it's a bigger state, but it's
25:35
Speaker 1: also down from the original lead of 27 points at
25:38
Speaker 1: the beginning of early voting. In Florida, 1.3 million people
25:42
Speaker 1: have voted. This is about 19% of the overall electorate.
25:45
Speaker 1: So a lot of the state is in. Democrats have
25:48
Speaker 1: a four point lead over at 60,000 more votes than Republicans.
25:52
Speaker 1: By the way, same story. Republicans are increasing their margins.
25:55
Speaker 1: It's going to get much more Republican as the days
25:57
Speaker 1: go on. In Ohio, Democrats stormed in early voting. The
26:01
Speaker 1: Democrat electorate was D plus 18. And when you consider
26:05
Speaker 1: it was an R plus 12 state is crazy high,
26:07
Speaker 1: a 30 point swing day one. It is now down
26:10
Speaker 1: to D plus three as Republicans, once again, picking up
26:13
Speaker 1: Democrats have cast their ballot. They can't cast the second one.
26:16
Speaker 1: After three days of early voting in Texas, over 2.1
26:20
Speaker 1: million people have voted in the 120 counties that we
26:24
Speaker 1: have all the records for of early voting. The electorate
26:28
Speaker 1: is R plus three, which is down from R plus
26:30
Speaker 1: 14 on 2024 and R plus 16 in 2022. In Arizona,
26:37
Speaker 1: over about 800,000 people have voted. Democrats have a 0.7% advantage.
26:42
Speaker 1: That's down from 2.7 in 2022. Arizona is a state
26:47
Speaker 1: where like Republicans are doing better than 2022. I think Nevada,
26:50
Speaker 1: Republicans are doing better than 2022. So it's pretty, and Florida.
26:53
Speaker 1: We're gonna notice very early, not very early in the night,
26:56
Speaker 1: but we're gonna notice in these three states what the
26:58
Speaker 1: Latino vote is outside of Texas. It's gonna be very,
27:01
Speaker 1: very interesting. Anyway, that's the narrative of the first week
27:06
Speaker 1: of early, first week, two weeks, three days, whatever the
27:08
Speaker 1: state you may live in of early voting. Democrats are
27:11
Speaker 1: treating this election like a presidential election. They are showing up.
27:16
Speaker 1: If you want Republicans to win, you need to make
27:19
Speaker 1: sure you vote and you need to make sure people
27:21
Speaker 1: who you can't count on voting on election day show
27:24
Speaker 1: up and go vote. You have an old relative, bring
27:26
Speaker 1: them to the polls. You have a young kid, bring
27:28
Speaker 1: them to the polls. That's the entire way of winning
27:31
Speaker 1: this election. Okay. last part of the show, of the
27:35
Speaker 1: segment rather, I'll go ahead and ask me anything after this.
27:38
Speaker 1: I do school board elections. Everyone knows that about me.
27:41
Speaker 1: And we do, we support conservatives all across the country.
27:44
Speaker 1: And really when I got started on school board policy,
27:47
Speaker 1: I really was focusing heavily on, you know, the CRT
27:52
Speaker 1: and DEI and COVID shutdowns and the transgender bathroom issue.
27:56
Speaker 1: As I become more knowledgeable about education policy in the
27:59
Speaker 1: public schools throughout the country, we focus on a broad issue.
28:02
Speaker 1: It's not all culture war stuff like it's teacher retention.
28:05
Speaker 1: It's making sure kids don't skip school. It's about, you know,
28:09
Speaker 1: improving reading and math scores, getting the science of reading
28:12
Speaker 1: back in the classrooms, what to do with AI in
28:15
Speaker 1: the classrooms. I have a very negative opinion about it,
28:17
Speaker 1: but it's not a like fire and brimstone pack anymore.
28:22
Speaker 1: We just we've kind of grown up and I've realized
28:24
Speaker 1: a lot on education policy. But that's not the way
28:27
Speaker 1: the left treats me. And they in some states, they
28:30
Speaker 1: are more vocal than others. Kansas has a group called
28:34
Speaker 1: Stand Up Blue Valley. They dislike me more than any
28:38
Speaker 1: group in the history of the country. And they featured
28:41
Speaker 1: me in a negative attack ad where they said a
28:44
Speaker 1: Republican New York billionaire, Ryan Gerduski, is trying to take
28:48
Speaker 1: over your school boards. I literally laughed out loud. I
28:52
Speaker 1: was like, I guess... They must know things about my
28:55
Speaker 1: bank account that neither I nor my accountant know. And
29:00
Speaker 1: they have this position that somehow I get these people
29:03
Speaker 1: elected to the school board. I'm on the phone with
29:04
Speaker 1: them and saying, OK, pass this agenda, pass this agenda.
29:08
Speaker 1: I promise you with over 200 conservatives on school boards
29:11
Speaker 1: that we have supported across the country, I don't do
29:15
Speaker 1: any of that. I don't call them and say, this
29:17
Speaker 1: is the policy you should pass. My nonprofit entity supports
29:21
Speaker 1: them in Having conference calls about like, you know, how
29:27
Speaker 1: to look for multiple spending and to make sure things
29:31
Speaker 1: are transparent or improving, like, you know, grading. It's so boring. Like,
29:37
Speaker 1: it's so boring.
29:38
Speaker 2: Not.
29:40
Speaker 1: Exciting at all. It's about transparency and education and improving
29:43
Speaker 1: grade scores and making sure kids can read. And it's
29:46
Speaker 1: so stupid. It's just pure partisan politics. But I laugh
29:49
Speaker 1: so hard that they call me a billionaire. And of course,
29:52
Speaker 1: they had a photo of me in a tuxedo. I
29:53
Speaker 1: have worn a tuxedo twice in my entire life. And
29:56
Speaker 1: this One, the photo they used, it was when I
29:59
Speaker 1: was at my cousin's wedding. So apparently they think that
30:04
Speaker 1: billionaires are just walking around in tuxedos with like monocles
30:06
Speaker 1: and being like, ha ha ha, let me take over
30:08
Speaker 1: your school board. It is so stupid. It is so outrageous,
30:12
Speaker 1: but I had to laugh and I hope you laugh too. Okay,
30:14
Speaker 1: Ask Me Anything is coming up next. Stay tuned. Now
30:19
Speaker 1: it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you
30:20
Speaker 1: want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email
30:22
Speaker 1: me ryan at numbersgamepodcast.com. That's ryan at numbers... pluralnumbersgamepodcast.com. Okay,
30:28
Speaker 1: first question comes from Eric. Eric is a bit of
30:30
Speaker 1: a long one, so I'm going to try to condense
30:32
Speaker 1: it a little bit. He says, I am an attorney
30:34
Speaker 1: living in Southern Oregon, and I have recently become a
30:36
Speaker 1: big fan of your material. Thank you, Eric. I appreciate you.
30:39
Speaker 1: I listen to all your podcasts and subscribe to your
30:40
Speaker 1: sub stack. That means quite a bit to me. Your
30:42
Speaker 1: commentary is very insightful. I'm interested in your thoughts about
30:45
Speaker 1: much of the demographic change that has occurred in the
30:47
Speaker 1: last 60 years. And the left boasts and writes fears
30:50
Speaker 1: that a permanent Democrat majority will arrive as a result.
30:53
Speaker 1: I'm skeptical that America will ever become a minority white country.
30:57
Speaker 1: Since Trump's crackdown, the white share of the birth has
30:59
Speaker 1: gradually increased and white fertility has stabilized. There's also been
31:02
Speaker 1: declining fertility among blacks and Latino women. It appears that
31:06
Speaker 1: Hispanic fertility will fall below whites by 2030. It's very probable.
31:10
Speaker 1: Black fertility is already lower than whites. That is absolutely true.
31:13
Speaker 1: Another reason I doubt a white minority will ever happen
31:15
Speaker 1: is due to high rates of intermarriage between Asians and
31:19
Speaker 1: Hispanics marrying white men. Their children are often white-presenting. For instance,
31:23
Speaker 1: my wife is East Indian and And I thought it
31:26
Speaker 1: was that East Asian East Indian and our two sons
31:29
Speaker 1: are perceived as being white. They are white presenting, I
31:32
Speaker 1: guess you would say. Finally, I believe high fertility rates
31:34
Speaker 1: among Amish Orthodox Jews, Mennonites and traditionalist Catholics and Mormons
31:38
Speaker 1: who still practice polygamy. That's a very small portion of Mormons.
31:40
Speaker 1: Just FYI, we'll start to impact the white fertility in 2040.
31:43
Speaker 1: Very probable. If there's any merit to my point or
31:47
Speaker 1: do you think that I am way off the mark? OK,
31:50
Speaker 1: so you present. OK, there is two entirely different conversations
31:54
Speaker 1: that you're having. And I love conversations on demographics, so
32:00
Speaker 1: it's not politically correct, but I'm here for it. So
32:04
Speaker 1: race is both a cultural phenomenon and a science. There
32:08
Speaker 1: is a science behind race. When you go for organ donations,
32:11
Speaker 1: they try to get you organ donations of people of
32:12
Speaker 1: the same race, for example, because it's more compatible. Yes,
32:16
Speaker 1: we're 99.99999% all the same. That. 0001 % makes a
32:21
Speaker 1: big difference on some things. Race as a cultural thing
32:28
Speaker 1: is two entirely different things. Your children are biracial. Your
32:32
Speaker 1: grandchildren will be biracial. Now, if both of your sons,
32:35
Speaker 1: I think you said you have two sons, if they
32:37
Speaker 1: marry white women and like blonde-haired, blue-eyed women and your
32:40
Speaker 1: grandchildren are blonde-haired, blue-eyed, does it mean that they are
32:42
Speaker 1: not Indian? No, it does not. Brandon Gill is a
32:45
Speaker 1: friend of mine, and I was his GC. His wife
32:47
Speaker 1: is half Indian. His children are quarter Indian. His son is, like,
32:51
Speaker 1: piercing blue eyes. Very, very Caucasian presenting. That does not
32:56
Speaker 1: mean they're not biracial. So the percentage of people who
33:00
Speaker 1: may be biracial will... absolutely increased. It is still increasing, right?
33:06
Speaker 1: You're a perfect example, JD Vance, perfect example of people
33:09
Speaker 1: who have children out of wedlock, not out of wedlock, sorry.
33:12
Speaker 1: People have children out of their race and they marry
33:14
Speaker 1: and they do interracial marriage, interracial breeding and all the
33:17
Speaker 1: rest of it. That is, and I'm not shaming it.
33:21
Speaker 1: I'm not against it. I'm just saying what it is.
33:22
Speaker 1: I've got cousins who are interracial, who have interracial children.
33:26
Speaker 1: So my position is life is hard and marry someone
33:30
Speaker 1: who will tolerate you and get on with it. So
33:33
Speaker 1: the interracial, the interracial breeding will absolutely increase. The question
33:40
Speaker 1: of whether someone is white on paper is not really
33:44
Speaker 1: the question you're having. Whites will probably become the minority
33:47
Speaker 1: and may come back to being the majority. We may
33:51
Speaker 1: have a reverse hockey stick because as you're saying, the
33:55
Speaker 1: populations of religious people who are overwhelmingly white are having
33:58
Speaker 1: an insane number of children. New Jersey has one of
34:03
Speaker 1: the largest white fertility rates in the country because of
34:06
Speaker 1: the Orthodox Jewish population. Lancaster, Pennsylvania, I think like a
34:10
Speaker 1: third of all births are home births from Amish women.
34:13
Speaker 1: The numbers are absurd. We have Amish majority counties in
34:16
Speaker 1: our country. You go to St. Mary's, Kansas, which is
34:20
Speaker 1: traditionalist Catholic. They have I think like they're 20 years
34:24
Speaker 1: younger that county than the neighboring counties because of all
34:27
Speaker 1: the children that they have in that county. So, yeah,
34:29
Speaker 1: you'll see a bit of a hockey stick. I believe that,
34:33
Speaker 1: especially as fertility becomes a extremely bifurcated thing. You only
34:39
Speaker 1: have a lot of kids if you are highly religious
34:41
Speaker 1: and most likely conservative. And then you don't if you're
34:45
Speaker 1: a few children, if you are secular or none, if
34:47
Speaker 1: you're a liberal or progressive. My only progressive cousins like
34:52
Speaker 1: don't have any kids. Like I think they have one
34:54
Speaker 1: between like four of them. They just don't have children.
34:57
Speaker 1: So that is like a perfect example. What when you
35:01
Speaker 1: are multiracial to the point where the world is judging
35:05
Speaker 1: what you look like, Robin Thicke's child, for example, who's
35:08
Speaker 1: I think a quarter black or half black and they
35:10
Speaker 1: and he's got blonde hair and blue eyes. When the
35:12
Speaker 1: world judges you for what you present yourself and what
35:15
Speaker 1: you identify yourself with, in a lot of cases, matters
35:19
Speaker 1: how much cultural stature being that race gives you. For example,
35:28
Speaker 1: in the 2020 census, we saw a gigantic explosion of
35:32
Speaker 1: people who were Native American, right? Much bigger than 2010.
35:35
Speaker 1: Native Americans are the only group that you can't import
35:37
Speaker 1: more people of, and they have a horrifically low fertility level.
35:40
Speaker 1: High early death rates, high alcoholism and drug abuse. It's
35:43
Speaker 1: horrific what goes on in the Native American communities and
35:46
Speaker 1: like they should get more service and spotlight than they
35:50
Speaker 1: do to try to stabilize those communities. But that's besides
35:52
Speaker 1: the point. So how did this group that you can't
35:55
Speaker 1: import more of all of a sudden see an explosion
35:58
Speaker 1: in numbers? It's because people, it was not, it is not,
36:01
Speaker 1: especially in 2020 during the year of BLM, it's not
36:07
Speaker 1: great on paper to be white. So people who were 10%
36:11
Speaker 1: Native American were like, I'm Native American. I'm Cherokee. I'm
36:14
Speaker 1: Algonquin or whatever. I'm Iroquois. Like that's what they are
36:19
Speaker 1: because they're 8% or 10% and it gives them like
36:22
Speaker 1: a way out of being white. That says more about
36:25
Speaker 1: our politics and our culture than it does the actual
36:27
Speaker 1: race form. Your grandkids could very well be blonde hair,
36:30
Speaker 1: blue eyed children. If you're saying your kids present white,
36:32
Speaker 1: they may not be. I don't know. I'm not, you know,
36:34
Speaker 1: whatever happens, happens. But if... It's not politically viable to
36:40
Speaker 1: be Caucasian. If you can get jobs, if you can
36:43
Speaker 1: get into colleges, if you can get government grants at
36:47
Speaker 1: easier rates and you get the victimhood card by being
36:50
Speaker 1: a minority, it doesn't matter what the three quarters of
36:54
Speaker 1: them are. They will use what's most politically tactful or
36:59
Speaker 1: if they're progressive and they want to view themselves as
37:01
Speaker 1: being on the you know, not an oppressor or whatever
37:04
Speaker 1: the nonsense line they're coming up with at the time,
37:07
Speaker 1: they will view themselves as being a quarter Indian or
37:10
Speaker 1: whatever the case may be. So that's the difference between
37:14
Speaker 1: what the race on paper is and what race in
37:17
Speaker 1: culture is. Latino is not a race. Latino is a culture.
37:22
Speaker 1: It's an ethnicity. I'll like go watch telenovela and everyone's
37:27
Speaker 1: got blonde hair and blue eyes like there are They're
37:30
Speaker 1: the president of Peru, I think it is, or Chile
37:34
Speaker 1: is like Korean or Japanese, but she's like South American. Like,
37:39
Speaker 1: you know what I mean? It's not an ethnicity. It's
37:42
Speaker 1: not a race. It's an ethnicity. And some are heavily
37:44
Speaker 1: European and some are not European. And like John Leguizamo,
37:50
Speaker 1: who is like an all-out racist actor who hates white people,
37:55
Speaker 1: he's like 60% European. Like it's I think he was
37:59
Speaker 1: publicly stated. So I looked it up beforehand. But he
38:02
Speaker 1: doesn't view himself as white because it's not viable to
38:04
Speaker 1: be a leftist and be white. That's what I think.
38:07
Speaker 1: That's really the difference between what people will say they
38:10
Speaker 1: are and what they won't say they are, because and
38:13
Speaker 1: that's how we'll judge and we'll get headlines like, oh,
38:15
Speaker 1: it's not a majority white or Latinos are voting increasingly Republican.
38:19
Speaker 1: They very well may be, but they may have been
38:20
Speaker 1: like their grandma was Cuban or their grandpa was Mexican
38:24
Speaker 1: and they are white. three quarters, three quarters Caucasian, and
38:26
Speaker 1: they don't speak the language, but they say they're Latino
38:28
Speaker 1: on paperwork because it's politically viable and it's viable for
38:32
Speaker 1: other things for minority owned business ship, things like that.
38:35
Speaker 1: Like there's the difference and there's the parsing. And that's
38:38
Speaker 1: a very complicated narrative. That's very difficult for like a
38:42
Speaker 1: newspaper headline to pick up or for a four minute
38:45
Speaker 1: segment on CNN or MSNBC or whatever to pick up.
38:48
Speaker 1: That's really where that's where I think the complication gets
38:52
Speaker 1: in from and where why why we don't know what
38:55
Speaker 1: the race of the future will be. If it's equally
38:57
Speaker 1: advantageous to be white as anything else, a lot of
38:59
Speaker 1: people may say, yeah, I'm white. What does it matter?
39:01
Speaker 1: I mean, and also this changing of what is white.
39:05
Speaker 1: I mean, white whiteness is constantly a growing and changing opinion.
39:09
Speaker 1: So there are South and Argentinians are like almost all
39:13
Speaker 1: non-Latino white. Like it's it's a joke that they're considered Latino.
39:16
Speaker 1: because they're almost all Italian or German. For whatever reason,
39:20
Speaker 1: they ended up there around 1946. But nonetheless, that is what,
39:25
Speaker 1: that's the two differences of opinion. So I don't know.
39:30
Speaker 1: if that may be. Yes, we'll have high fertility from
39:33
Speaker 1: ultra-Orthodox religious communities, both Christian, Jewish. Yes, we will have
39:39
Speaker 1: declining Latino and Asian, declining Latino, Asian, and Black birth
39:45
Speaker 1: rates that will affect things whites have stabilized. However, people
39:49
Speaker 1: may not say they're white because it's not viable and
39:51
Speaker 1: we don't know what the answer will be in the end.
39:53
Speaker 1: So be kind to each other, whatever your race is. OK,
39:57
Speaker 1: next question from Patrick. Patrick says, how close were we
39:59
Speaker 1: to passing amnesty in the years prior to Trump and
40:02
Speaker 1: how on earth did it not happen with much more
40:04
Speaker 1: immigration friendly GOP? Also, I'm noticing more and more calls
40:07
Speaker 1: for amnesty from both Democrats and Republicans in recent months.
40:10
Speaker 1: If the Democrats win a majority in both the House
40:12
Speaker 1: and Senate, do you think there are a chance the
40:14
Speaker 1: old school Republicans and Democrats will team up and finally
40:16
Speaker 1: shove one through? we were the closest in 2012 with Obama.
40:22
Speaker 1: I mean, we were really, really, really close to getting it. And, um,
40:26
Speaker 1: John Boehner had the house majority and he was absolutely
40:30
Speaker 1: considering it. And the big turning point was the primary
40:32
Speaker 1: for Eric Cantor. When Eric Cantor lost, um, that primary,
40:38
Speaker 1: it was a 2012 or 2000. And I think it
40:40
Speaker 1: was 2012 when Eric Cantor lost that primary, uh, It
40:44
Speaker 1: was earth shattering. It might have been 2014. I take
40:47
Speaker 1: it back to 2014 because the Romney had lost the
40:51
Speaker 1: the the the playbook after Romney had lost was that
40:57
Speaker 1: you need to support amnesty. By the way, it turns
40:59
Speaker 1: out I forget what book I read that in. It
41:00
Speaker 1: was a post-election book, a post-2020 election book. It was
41:03
Speaker 1: all lied about. I think it was Ari Fleischer. I
41:05
Speaker 1: might have been wrong. If it's not Ari Fleischer, I apologize.
41:08
Speaker 1: But I think it was Ari Fleischer. who was purposely
41:11
Speaker 1: putting that in the book, in the playbook of you
41:14
Speaker 1: need to pass an amnesty. If it wasn't Ari, I apologize,
41:18
Speaker 1: it was somebody else. But they purposely put it there,
41:21
Speaker 1: even though there was no information proving that that was true.
41:24
Speaker 1: The Senate had passed it by an overwhelming majority. I
41:27
Speaker 1: think it was like 73, 74 votes. The House was
41:30
Speaker 1: absolutely considering it. John Boehner had a tremendous amount of
41:32
Speaker 1: pressure to support it. And it was Eric Cantor's defeat
41:35
Speaker 1: in that primary vote against Dave Brat that changed everything
41:39
Speaker 1: and dropped it as an issue. That's the closest we
41:41
Speaker 1: ever really came past 1986. If the Democrats control the
41:47
Speaker 1: House and the Senate, here's the problem. They're going to
41:51
Speaker 1: try to write the bill as they like it, and
41:53
Speaker 1: it will be a toxic poison pill for most Republicans
41:56
Speaker 1: because they're going to throw everything. They're going to ask
41:58
Speaker 1: They're going to demand that we bring in everyone who
42:01
Speaker 1: was deported. And even like Maria Salazar was going to
42:03
Speaker 1: be like, that's nonsense. Like she's going to be like,
42:05
Speaker 1: this is crazy. Like they're going to go over the
42:08
Speaker 1: line as usual. They're not going to come to the
42:11
Speaker 1: moderate consensus they could probably get through on most things.
42:15
Speaker 1: And they're going to try to go too far to
42:17
Speaker 1: the left and not get it through. That's what's going
42:19
Speaker 1: to happen. So holding the Senate and is very, very important.
42:24
Speaker 1: Holding the presidency is very, very important in twenty twenty eight.
42:27
Speaker 1: And if we lose the house, recapturing the house, of course.
42:30
Speaker 1: Last question for this episode comes from Robbie. Robbie's from
42:32
Speaker 1: North Carolina. He says, still enjoying your podcast every week.
42:35
Speaker 1: Thank you, Robbie. The information is outstanding and I share
42:38
Speaker 1: it often. I appreciate that. Robbie, I try to make
42:40
Speaker 1: everyone more informed, not necessarily smarter. There's smarter people than me.
42:43
Speaker 1: There's wiser people than me. but just give you information
42:46
Speaker 1: and a little backstory, a little opinion, but give it
42:50
Speaker 1: to you as straight as I possibly can without overly
42:53
Speaker 1: partisan leans and let you decide how your opinion is.
42:57
Speaker 1: I don't want to tell you what to think. I'd
42:59
Speaker 1: rather tell you information and make you think. You talked,
43:02
Speaker 1: this is the question. You talked in the past about
43:04
Speaker 1: the 2030 census could lock a long-term gain for the Republicans.
43:07
Speaker 1: Looking at my own state of North Carolina and how
43:09
Speaker 1: things have changed, how do you see the change in
43:11
Speaker 1: Democratic control this year affecting the census' impact And honestly,
43:15
Speaker 1: the 2028 presidential race, I feel like if we could
43:18
Speaker 1: secure the presidency in 28, that will help us dramatically.
43:20
Speaker 1: But if we don't, the 2030 census may not have
43:22
Speaker 1: the kind of impact you talked about. What are your
43:25
Speaker 1: thoughts on the blue gains? Great question. I will say this,
43:29
Speaker 1: that remember, the 2020 census was completely messed up and
43:35
Speaker 1: it was done under Trump, right? It was not done
43:38
Speaker 1: under like a Democrat. They didn't plot and plan this.
43:43
Speaker 1: And even then they messed it up. And it's not
43:44
Speaker 1: the first time, by the way. Census, they mess it
43:46
Speaker 1: up regularly. They revise it the year after and maps
43:50
Speaker 1: never change. So I don't imagine that if a Democrat
43:53
Speaker 1: comes through, we're going to see the census change all
43:57
Speaker 1: that much because it's it's it's the numbers are so overwhelming.
44:02
Speaker 1: It's virtually impossible. It's not virtually impossible. It is impossible,
44:06
Speaker 1: I'll say, for Democrats to make gains in blue states
44:10
Speaker 1: at this point. What is more concerning for the census
44:14
Speaker 1: is if, and I don't think it's going to happen,
44:17
Speaker 1: but if Greg Abbott were to lose in 2026, right? Well,
44:21
Speaker 1: back up. You have 2030 on top of it. So
44:24
Speaker 1: let's back up for a second. If Democrats win the
44:28
Speaker 1: 2028 presidency, let's say Trump crashes out at 29% and
44:32
Speaker 1: Democrats win the presidency in 2028, the next midterm is
44:35
Speaker 1: the Republican midterm, right? So gives Republicans a lot to
44:39
Speaker 1: really go ahead to win state legislative races and governor's
44:42
Speaker 1: races in all the races that are happening in this year,
44:45
Speaker 1: as well as in 2028 and 2029, because there's always
44:48
Speaker 1: like a few odd ducks like Virginia and New Jersey.
44:51
Speaker 1: If Republicans control the governorships and the state legislatures, then
44:55
Speaker 1: they get the redistricting power to see where it ends
44:57
Speaker 1: up in which states that are most important. But then
45:00
Speaker 1: you have states like Texas. Texas is going to gain
45:02
Speaker 1: four seats, four to five seats. Florida will gain two
45:05
Speaker 1: to three. A But North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Arizona, Utah, Idaho,
45:13
Speaker 1: they will all gain seats. Tennessee, possibly. New York's going
45:17
Speaker 1: to lose a ton. California will lose a ton. Oregon
45:20
Speaker 1: will lose one. Rhode Island will lose one. Pennsylvania will
45:22
Speaker 1: lose one. There's no way of kind of doing this.
45:26
Speaker 1: But also because of Trump's immigration crackdown, this is so important.
45:30
Speaker 1: We're seeing overall numbers of immigrants coming into the country
45:34
Speaker 1: being reduced. So as Americans are leaving these blue states,
45:38
Speaker 1: they're not being replaced at the same level from high
45:40
Speaker 1: immigration levels. And even if Republicans lose in 2028, the
45:45
Speaker 1: president doesn't start till 2029. It's a year. They only
45:49
Speaker 1: have a year and they're not going to undo what's
45:51
Speaker 1: been done in a year. They're just not going to.
45:54
Speaker 1: That will that mean we don't know how far this
45:56
Speaker 1: is going to take it, but it's going to take
45:57
Speaker 1: it pretty far. And we're seeing numbers falling in numbers.
46:01
Speaker 1: birth rates in places like California, places like New Mexico
46:04
Speaker 1: and Colorado and New Jersey and Minnesota, all of these states,
46:08
Speaker 1: New York of two, although New York's very late in reporting,
46:11
Speaker 1: all of these states may be impacted by larger than
46:14
Speaker 1: what we know. Because remember, we're only at the halfway
46:16
Speaker 1: point as far as what redistricting will look like. We
46:18
Speaker 1: don't know the full level of it yet. It will be,
46:22
Speaker 1: if I had to take a guess, and it's just
46:23
Speaker 1: a guess, I would say that California's going to lose
46:26
Speaker 1: five seats. and Illinois will lose one or two, and
46:30
Speaker 1: New York will lose two or three. My just total guess.
46:33
Speaker 1: And then Rhode Island will lose one, Minnesota will lose one.
46:35
Speaker 1: And at a certain point, you're looking at Democrats just
46:37
Speaker 1: having to force each other into primaries or force others
46:40
Speaker 1: to resign and retire. And Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, North Carolina,
46:46
Speaker 1: as long as they win those governorships when they're coming
46:49
Speaker 1: back on in 2029, 2028, 2030, win the state legislative elections,
46:55
Speaker 1: especially if it's the Republican midterm, then we'll have a
46:58
Speaker 1: Republican House, I think, in the 2030s for the foreseeable future.
47:01
Speaker 1: And more importantly, the 2032 election becomes the first election
47:05
Speaker 1: where the Midwest doesn't matter to the same effect. You
47:08
Speaker 1: don't need to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin to win
47:11
Speaker 1: the presidency. All you need is the Sun Belt. That
47:14
Speaker 1: is a game changer. All right, that's it for this episode.
47:16
Speaker 1: If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on
47:18
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, on the podcast, YouTube, wherever you get
47:22
Speaker 1: your podcasts. And I will talk to you guys on Monday.