Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / 10,000 Calories, 7 Minute Science & the 2026 Masters with Kyle Murray

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10,000 Calories, 7 Minute Science & the 2026 Masters with Kyle Murray · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: your host, back at it with the first lady of
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: the pod, Miss Kendrim Middleton, the Prime Minister of Djen Nation, up.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: From his slumber to join us.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Stucky is here out of the bat cave as the
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: NCAA tournament has ended. We've got images of the backside
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: of the moon. What a time to be alive. And
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Kyle Murray from Rodo Grinders is with us. He's also
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: a fellow bucketeer with me throughout the NBA season. And Kyle,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: a big night for your Michigan Wolverines.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: How was the party?
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was good.
• 0:51
  Speaker 4: They put a cherry on top of a great season.
• 0:53
  Speaker 4: It was good to see them kind of dominate throughout
• 0:55
  Speaker 4: the entire tournament and come through with the trophy at
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: the end of the day. So yeah, it was obviously
• 0:59
  Speaker 4: a great season and great to bring that hardware home.
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: Obviously after some of the off the field, off the
• 1:04
  Speaker 4: court stuff and in arbor, it's good to uh settle
• 1:07
  Speaker 4: that down a little bit and bring home a title.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been a lot of lean years for the
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Michigan athletic program. We feel we've just felt awful for
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: your plate, you know, with your national championship.
• 1:17
  Speaker 5: And they're probably gonna win like hockey, they might have
• 1:20
  Speaker 5: win hockey this week. They suck. They do suck in baseball,
• 1:25
  Speaker 5: so at least we can we don't have to worry
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: about a college World Series.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Uh, do we want to overreact to the fact that
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: the Big Ten is completely taken over the college sports
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: landscape and then no longer is the SEC the king
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: of the mountain.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: I get a thumbs up around the around the horn
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: on that.
• 1:42
  Speaker 5: Well, I mean that's that. Uh. I think that makes
• 1:46
  Speaker 5: sense if you think about it, because that's that has
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: a lot to do with nil and the money. There
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: was some other institutions probably putting more money into things,
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: not necessarily in a kosher way that now have even doubt.
• 2:05
  Speaker 5: So yeah, it make it. Uh makes sense that the
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: Big Ten now did get their got their first college
• 2:12
  Speaker 5: basketball title in over two decades.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: So stucky for you, this is the end of a
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: very long run. There's not a lot of sleeping that
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: goes on at the Stucky household between college football NFL
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: rolling right into college basketball. So this is almost feels
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: like a holiday for you, Like this is the start
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: of a very long vacation, isn't it.
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: Uh it's not too long. But I mean, yeah, I
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: don't ever say I've never done anything for this company.
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'm even were first starting and I was
• 2:42
  Speaker 5: the I was the only person doing content. There was
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: zero chance I was doing anything this week. And I
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: woke up from a I don't even know if I'm
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: up all the way right now.
• 2:55
  Speaker 6: He needs one of his coffee delivered.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: I would have.
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: Slept all day, literally all day today, uh, if I
• 3:00
  Speaker 5: didn't get up for this. But yeah, I mean, I'll
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: I'll take this week, is just I do. I mean,
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: I now I have a kid, so I gotta do something,
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: some stuff I gotta I have to take care of
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: the kid a little bit. But my only things on
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: the agenda are this today and Thursday, and then I'll
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: go on some bike rides and then I'm just going
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: to sleep and read. And then it's the perfect timing
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: with the masters, because I mean, yeah, like so my
• 3:36
  Speaker 5: run of betting, and I'll dabble on baseball, and then
• 3:38
  Speaker 5: eventually I'll dive into college football prep and a couple
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: of weeks really get into it. But it's the perfect
• 3:45
  Speaker 5: time because I just go from grinding every day from
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: like you know, probably July when it's really when I'm
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: really in the weeds with college football until last night
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: and then it's just nothing and the perfect perfect event
• 4:03
  Speaker 5: for that on the weekend because I will just have
• 4:06
  Speaker 5: a couple futures on the Masters and I know I'm
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: probably not gonna hit. I went eight years in a row.
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: I bet Rose and Masiama. That's all I would do.
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: I would bet them every year and then I finally
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: cashed with Matsiama one year, came close with Rose one year,
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: still heartbroken on when he lost to Sergio. But I'll
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: just strow a couple of futures and expecting to lose,
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: and then just lay on my couch and following out
• 4:30
  Speaker 5: of sleep watching the Masters for four days and it's glorious.
• 4:35
  Speaker 5: So it's like the perfect event for me specifically to
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: come after the tournament season.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say, you know, this is something
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: that Kendra, being a not forty year old man on
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: this podcast, I don't know that she can appreciate how
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: beautiful the golf nap is are you.
• 4:50
  Speaker 7: Oh, I'm a golf napering. I have the perfect couch
• 4:55
  Speaker 7: for a nap. It's one of the like big, like
• 4:57
  Speaker 7: there's an l sectional on each side.
• 4:59
  Speaker 6: All it's the best nap couch in the world.
• 5:01
  Speaker 7: I sometimes will purposely just sleep on my sofa instead
• 5:05
  Speaker 7: of calling you my bad.
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: Now are you napper? Or like, are you too into
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: it and to have too much going on that you
• 5:12
  Speaker 5: can't even really ever get a nap in.
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I will say, I find myself dying on the
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: hill of you know, golf is exciting and entertaining, but yeah,
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: I mean you can't really beat a nap with golf
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: on in the background. You know, there will be times
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: where you know, I'm on the edge of the edge
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: of the seat, You're you know, really dialed in.
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: But yeah, when you're.
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: Especially like on on the Friday afternoon rounds. I found Thursday,
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: it's usually pretty exciting, especially at big tournaments, but the Friday,
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: I think the Friday afternoon.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: Naps really hit different during the golf season.
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: I mean, Masters is even like pumping in sounds for you,
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: like like it's like it's it's perfect.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you got Jim Nance just sort of whispering to you.
• 5:49
  Speaker 7: I'm gonna say that's what does it for me? It's
• 5:51
  Speaker 7: like the ASMR Yes.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Original asm R, Kendra, I have a question for you.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: What's on your mind set?
• 6:08
  Speaker 6: All right?
• 6:09
  Speaker 7: So a little bit of not football football talk. It
• 6:12
  Speaker 7: is time for my fantasy football league's punishment, and every
• 6:17
  Speaker 7: year before the season starts, we vote on what we
• 6:20
  Speaker 7: think the punishment should be. This year, loser has to
• 6:23
  Speaker 7: do the ten thousand calorie challenge. So naturally, everyone in
• 6:27
  Speaker 7: our group chat's been talking about if they were the loser,
• 6:29
  Speaker 7: how they would do it. Our loser has decided that
• 6:31
  Speaker 7: they're going to eat ten thousand calories of taco bell.
• 6:34
  Speaker 6: I have a completely different strategy. I would use yeah,
• 6:40
  Speaker 6: die exactly. I have a different strategy.
• 6:42
  Speaker 7: But if you guys had twenty four hours to consume
• 6:44
  Speaker 7: ten thousand calories.
• 6:46
  Speaker 6: How would you do it?
• 6:48
  Speaker 7: Do you have any Tell you my strategy so you
• 6:49
  Speaker 7: guys can think for a second. Okay, So I personally
• 6:53
  Speaker 7: think because Crumble cookies have almost a thousand calories in
• 6:57
  Speaker 7: some of their cookies, I would eat a Crumble cookie
• 7:00
  Speaker 7: every two hours and max out done easy Crumble cookie.
• 7:05
  Speaker 7: That would be I'd probably need some peds because I'm
• 7:07
  Speaker 7: not a large person. However, I think that that would
• 7:11
  Speaker 7: be my approach to doing it. I might mix in
• 7:13
  Speaker 7: like a Starbucks frappe or like some fruity shape from
• 7:16
  Speaker 7: Starbucks to help get me.
• 7:18
  Speaker 6: Over the edge.
• 7:18
  Speaker 7: But I feel like that's the easiest approach because I
• 7:20
  Speaker 7: could eat ten cookies in a day.
• 7:21
  Speaker 6: That doesn't seem that bad.
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: I this is weird cookies.
• 7:25
  Speaker 6: Whatever it would be tens.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: I just don't know what it would take.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: I am.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: I'm sort of of the belief that ignorance is bliss.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I'll look at labels and for a lot of the
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: stuff that I would eat, Like, I would go to
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: the lasagna. But if you ever had a lasagna with
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: a like a homemade lasagna with a caloric intake tab
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: on it, I just don't even know what. I wouldn't
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: even know how I would get close. I guess you'd
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: have to look this stuff up. But I think i'd
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: go pizza, some sort of Italian dish, heavy on the cheese,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: and then polish it off with the sweet.
• 7:58
  Speaker 7: Now think you realize how many calories ten thousand is. Dude,
• 8:02
  Speaker 7: you'd have to eat like six pizzas.
• 8:05
  Speaker 6: It's not more.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: Six pizza pies.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, See, I have no I have no frame
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: of reference for how much how many calories are in anything.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I just don't look at it. I try not to
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: eat like an idiot. And then every once in a while,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I go to the gym. That's my that's my day
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: to day. I would say, pizza and brownies. What about you, Stucky, I'd.
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: Have to eat something like I'd have to mix it
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: up a little bit, but i'd have one of the
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: things i'd have to eat is something that's very enjoyable,
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: and that's this has gone back since I was a kid.
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: My mom would make my favorite food in the world.
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: Now my wife makes it. But my mom make a
• 8:43
  Speaker 5: big casserole dish of homemade egg plant parm Now my
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: wife makes it, and she'll also make that with a
• 8:49
  Speaker 5: side of homemade pasta. So I'd have that and I
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: can clean that out on a Sunday myself. It's disgusting,
• 8:59
  Speaker 5: but it's so good that I just don't stop eating,
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: and it's the only thing I eat that day. I'd
• 9:02
  Speaker 5: have to have that in there. I don't know how
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: much that would be, but I'd also then have some
• 9:06
  Speaker 5: sort of like I'd probably have two milkshakes at some point,
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: like ice cream heavy milkshakes, and then the most Like
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: if you're just looking a calorie like coloric density, the
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: best food is actually olive oil. There's a lot of
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: calories and it's not really going to fill you up.
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: So I love like I have an olive oil a
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: month club where like I get an olive oil from
• 9:35
  Speaker 5: all around the world every month. So I do love
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: Alva and I could drink some of it. But just
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: like bread, i'd have like olive oil herbs and like
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: just dipping bread all day in olive oil. And then
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: if I need to fill in the gaps, yeah, give me.
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: I'll just take it. Like a bottle of vodka at
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: some point, just start jugging it.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: Okay, vodka doesn't have any calories.
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: I'm saying.
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: I would hold it like you're chugging vodka the olive bottles.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: Oh god, oh yeah.
• 10:08
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't just start chugging vodkas a little dirty martini action.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: I like that, like your style.
• 10:14
  Speaker 6: Yle, how you doing it?
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: I think for me, I guess first, is it just
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: food or does liquid calories count?
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 10:21
  Speaker 7: Like with calories count, you just have to consume ten
• 10:23
  Speaker 7: thousand calories in under twenty four hours.
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I would just live like I did
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: in my early days of college, and I would just
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: drink pizza in way too much, you know, non sugar
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: free pop, so I like the the pops are like
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: three fifty calories of can so those add up real quick.
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: I learned there getting the freshman fifteen turned into like
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: a freshman twenty five for me.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, with pizza and pop.
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: So yeah, like you said, it'd be like probably five
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: full pizzas, which.
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: Is a lot.
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: But I feel like for me, the when I have pizza,
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: my stomach just doesn't, you know, find an end point,
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: so I can just eat pizza endlessly. It feels like
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: I feel like I get pretty full for every other food,
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: but pizza, I can just I'm a bottomless pit. So
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: I'd probably say pizza and pop. And then I think
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: the milkshakes is a good call as well.
• 11:06
  Speaker 7: So that's probably how we do it, hop you are
• 11:08
  Speaker 7: a Michigan man, Yeah, yeah, good catch.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: The internet is suggesting that we go heavy on eggs.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Chocolate milk will be a good in between.
• 11:18
  Speaker 7: Now I threw chocolate milk on a cruise ship I
• 11:20
  Speaker 7: can't do that again.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: Have you guys ever done a food challenge? I did.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I did one of those eat a giant pie of
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: pizza in an hour things. It was one of the
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: most awful experiences I've ever had. And I consider myself
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: a pretty heavy eater. I'm like Kyle, like the pizza
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: doesn't register until it does. That was one of the
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: worst days of my life. I mean, I had to
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: take the rest of the day to myself and nobody
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: could be around me.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: It was. It got weird.
• 11:48
  Speaker 5: I had one in college. It was and I had
• 11:58
  Speaker 5: to eat fifty hard boiled eggs in an hour. This
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: is when I was budging a frat and we were
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: kicked out one day and I was a brother for
• 12:10
  Speaker 5: one day and made it through. We had fourteen start
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: six made it. We got kicked out one day and
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: for hazing allegations and lost our house. So that was fun.
• 12:19
  Speaker 5: But one of the things that I did was it's
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: called cool hand Luke. There's this movie in the seventies
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: where he had to eat fifty hard boiled eggs. I
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: think in like jail or something, I don't know.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: Where it was.
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: And that was miserable. But I cheated so bad. So
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: like there was other people doing their food challenges at
• 12:41
  Speaker 5: the same time, and then like all of the older
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: brothers were obviously like drinking and not paying the most attention.
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: So I would just take these hard boiled eggs and
• 12:55
  Speaker 5: then I would and I love hard boiled eggs. It
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: took me a while to get back to loving them,
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: but I would, like, so I was at some point
• 13:03
  Speaker 5: I was like crumpling them up and then eating them.
• 13:06
  Speaker 6: But this is making me gag.
• 13:09
  Speaker 5: Was I was crumpling them up and then I would
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: eat it and then like just kind of sneakily just
• 13:15
  Speaker 5: was filling my pockets with all the eggs to get
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: through it, and there was a lot made it to
• 13:23
  Speaker 5: the ground. And so I definitely.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Now alone.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Those yokes rough next day, all right, that is properly disgusting.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Were about to dive deep into a tradition unlike any other.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Will allow all of you to digest this story properly.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: But first a word from me about Draft Kings.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by Draft Kings sports book,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: and you should know Draft Kings is the sports book
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: for betting on NBA stars. It's Tuesday, which means all
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• 14:19
  Speaker 2: Now. Hello, friends, Welcome to the masts.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: The azaleas are blooming, and every whisper of the wind
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: carries the weight of history. Augusta. We're green jacket awaits
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Kyle Murray here to break.
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: It down with us.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: It is a tradition unlike any other decades of history, Kyle,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: And unlike the opens where you're switching locations, we're parked
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: at Augusta. Does that make this tournament slightly more predictable?
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: What do the trends say on this?
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah? I think when you really take a deep dive
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: into the data, a lot of stuff does sort of
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: correlate with specific course history at a course like a
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: Gusta where it kind of requires so much specific skill,
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: especially with tea, green play. I think there is a
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: lot of stuff that does make it fairly predictable. But
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: I do think that you know, at an event like
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: this where obviously the spotlight of the golf world, similar
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: to other sports, you know, when you get to these
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: big events, Final four, you know, just this past weekend,
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: very similar, you get some trends that kind of pop
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: up that can be a little bit noisy at times.
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: I think I was seeing something floating around there on
• 15:26
  Speaker 4: social media of you know, eight of the last twelve
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: Masters winners being a specific age and a specific world
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: golf ranking, which I think happened to fit the Bryson
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: Shambo mold this year with him being either twenty eight
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: or twenty nine years old. But I think you're going
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: to see a lot of noisy trends, but there's certainly
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: plenty to you know, pull back from and look into
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: some of the data here, especially with how players play
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: at this course. Obviously we're going to talk about some
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: debutants and how guys who typically play this course the
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: first time don't perform all that great historically, but they've
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: certainly been outliers, So I think it's it's certainly important
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: to take a player profile individually, one time, one player
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: at a time there rather than kind of put players
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: into these overall blankets rather than you.
• 16:07
  Speaker 3: Know, just kind of generalizing them.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Six of the last seven champions have been a top
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: three favorite entering into the Masters tournament. So if you're
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: starting with the I just wanted to pick an out
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: right winner, which is how most people want to bet
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: the Masters. Do you have to start there and who
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: is your favorite among the obvious favorites?
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I think you. I mean you don't have to
• 16:30
  Speaker 3: start there.
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: I do think that you know, the way my model
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: was built this week, the top three in terms of
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: odds are the top three in that order in terms
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: of the guys who shake out the best in my
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: model this week. But I think there's certainly some guys
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: down the list a little bit, and I think when
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: you kind of recall the last ten years or so,
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: there are I think the outliers certainly stick out little
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: bit more stuck. You already mentioned the hideki win back
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: in twenty twenty one, so that was an outlier where
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: he wasn't a top three favorite coming into the year.
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: And I think it's also maybe a little bit skewed
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: due to the players who we have at the top
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: of the board right now, and we've had come through
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: with these green jackets. Obviously Scotti Schffler best player on
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: the planet, and then Rory McRoy was just so dominant
• 17:11
  Speaker 4: last year and he obviously got his first Green jacket
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: and completed the Grand Slam. So I think it can
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: be a bit skewed in terms of, you know, looking
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: at that you know, ten plus year data there, but
• 17:21
  Speaker 4: it certainly does help that trend that it's that these
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: three guys, with you know how elite they all are,
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: are the top three right now.
• 17:30
  Speaker 7: I do agree with Kravitz that I think a lot
• 17:32
  Speaker 7: of people just want to bet for an outright winner.
• 17:34
  Speaker 7: But I'm a super casual gambler on golf, Like I
• 17:37
  Speaker 7: usually just do the Masters in TPC because it's in
• 17:39
  Speaker 7: my hometown. But when I look at the Masters, I
• 17:42
  Speaker 7: think one of my favorite things to look at is
• 17:44
  Speaker 7: the top ten, including ties on.
• 17:46
  Speaker 6: DraftKings for casuals.
• 17:48
  Speaker 7: Is that a good way to approach it or do
• 17:49
  Speaker 7: you have any tips for people who really just kind
• 17:52
  Speaker 7: of approach the Masters looking to have a little bit
• 17:54
  Speaker 7: of fun and maybe earn an extra you know coin
• 17:56
  Speaker 7: in their pocket.
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I certainly think top ten is a good way
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: to do that for sure. I think, you know, I know,
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: everybody likes to talk about specific parlays and maybe the
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: you know, the negative expected value on those, but I
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: also like the the top twenty, top thirty even markets
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: for maybe some parlays, so you can kind of give
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: USLF a little bit of leeway there, you know, add
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: a couple of.
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: Guys in that mix.
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: But yeah, typically I find the most betting values in
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: my model in the top ten and top twenty markets,
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: so I certainly like that angle as well.
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: I got a couple of names to throw out to
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: get your thoughts on as far as potential value. But
• 18:33
  Speaker 5: I but before I get there, I mean, I will
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: say that I do think golf more so. You see
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: this in so many sports now, especially with sports betting
• 18:39
  Speaker 5: coverage growing, that it seems like in golf field, people
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: will just look back at the past x amount of
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: winners and then just find the career criteria to fit
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: that and then put it out there. And there's as
• 18:52
  Speaker 5: you said, there's a lot of noise in that, but
• 18:54
  Speaker 5: one of the most look, I'm not a golf better
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: on this is as casual as you could ever be.
• 19:00
  Speaker 5: And uh one of the things that I would find
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: difficult just looking outwardly, it's like, how how do you
• 19:07
  Speaker 5: deal with trying to translate what is going on and
• 19:10
  Speaker 5: live to uh p G A and and like going
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: into a tournament like this because you look at a
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: guy like Bryson right, who was, Yeah, he has a
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: very strange master's history, like it wasn't he couldn't wasn't
• 19:23
  Speaker 5: doing anything. And then what he has a fifth and
• 19:25
  Speaker 5: a sixth place finish the past two years and you
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: know with his driving abilities, the good chances in the mix, Well,
• 19:32
  Speaker 5: how do you how do you how do you look
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: at that from the live to the PGA and master's
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: translation and do you have any thoughts on the on
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: the live guys this week?
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's been actually a super tricky modeling aspect the
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: past few years with all majors because you know, you
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: come from uh you know, before live, you had all
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: the data that you really wanted.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: That's very consistent for each player.
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: I mean there was Euro Tour guys that weren't you know,
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: as you know, easily to translate their you know, model
• 19:59
  Speaker 4: numbers and compared to the PGA Tour guys. But obviously
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: adding that live wrinkles has changed some things up because
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: it's not only you know, a different tour, it's just
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: a completely different game over there. They're playing with fewer guys,
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: they're playing a team aspect, and you know, obviously they're
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: not playing as many holes. But I think for for
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: this week specifically, my model has been lower on some
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: of these guys. So I've actually been looking for ways
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: to maybe strengthen the signal on some of this live data.
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: But when you get a lot of the strokes gain
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: stuff from them, it's not as reliable in my opinion
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: as some of these PGA tours because obviously, you know,
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: stroke skain at its heart is how that how players
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: performing compared to the field, and the field just isn't
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: as you know, significant as it is on the PGA Tour.
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: Even in some of these you know, weaker field you know,
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: we're missing the top end guys that we have at live,
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: but you know, you're you.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: Still have a lot of talent down the board.
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: And some of these even weaker field PGA events, but
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: I think the the guys who are most popping in
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: my model obviously gonna be Rom and Bryson, as they
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: probably should for any model being built. These are just
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: two premier talents in the world that I think, you know,
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: the way we've seen Rom perform. When I was looking
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: at the kind of the biggest features for the model
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: this week in terms of what's going to translate to
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: strong performance this week, it was coarse history and recent form.
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: It's really important for players to be playing at the
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: top of their game coming into the Masters. It's been important,
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: you know, ever since I've been tracking numbers here for
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: Augusta and Rom. When you look at his recent form,
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: you really can't poke any holes there. He's just been
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: absolutely elite on the Live tour obviously and some events
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: there in the euro Tour as well. But you know,
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: five straight top five finishes, but that doesn't translate as
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: well as someone who maybe has five straight top five
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: finishes on the PGA Tour, for example, a guy like
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: Cam Young who's been in the top seven, including a
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: win there at Sawgrass. So that stuff gets more of
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: a kind of a bump in my model rather than
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: these live events. But so it does get tough to
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: translate some of that. But certainly I think Rom and
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: Bryce are going to be at the top of the board.
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: I know Red kind of had his defection there, but
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: I kind of still consider him a semi live player
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: just due to where we're getting a lot of his
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: data from. And he is also somebody that my model
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: loves this week. So I know the casual fans might
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: not like hearing Patrick Reid's name being mentioned in terms
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: of wagering American dollars on him, but he's someone that
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: I do have some interest in this week.
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: Reed is like automatic top twenty here, like it's just
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: an auto top. He's always going to be. It seems
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: like he always plays well. Go ahead, Ginzer.
• 22:21
  Speaker 7: I was gonna say, is is Oberg somebody to look
• 22:24
  Speaker 7: at after his TPC collapse or was that just the course.
• 22:27
  Speaker 6: To back him?
• 22:28
  Speaker 7: Because that's his home course. He has a house there,
• 22:30
  Speaker 7: he plays that course a lot. What do you think
• 22:32
  Speaker 7: about him heading into this tournament?
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I love led big.
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: He was someone that I actually bet outright to win
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: in twenty twenty four, as you know, he was making
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: his debut, so it was more of a you know,
• 22:42
  Speaker 4: you just don't see a lot of I guess popular
• 22:44
  Speaker 4: bets or hot bets on players who are making their debut.
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: Obviously this year Chris Goddard is probably gonna be the
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: guy that people are talking about, maybe Jacob Bridgeman, two
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: of the better players on the PGA Tour but making
• 22:54
  Speaker 4: their debut. That was the case for oberg there in
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty four. But he's just one of those guys
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: that has such an elite fit for this course in
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: my opinion. He has the distance, he has the all
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: around game that you're looking for, he has the elite
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: approach play and for me, at a place like Augusta,
• 23:09
  Speaker 4: it's going to be a spot where you just have
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: to be, you know, a consistent and precise ball striker
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: at all times. You really don't have many holes to
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: take a breather on when it comes to the ball striking,
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: and Overra's a guy who can excel under that kind
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: of pressure, every single hole, every single shot from TV.
• 23:24
  Speaker 7: I don't know, are you sure after that collapse.
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: A TV, Yeah, that's fair, that's fair. I think we've
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: seen that a couple of times from guys recently. And
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: obviously she and Lowry is someone that pops to mind
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: with these collapses. But it's it's tough for guys to
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: get in those positions to be able to win a
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: golf tournament, and finishing a golf tournament is extremely hard.
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: I can only imagine the pressure those guys have. But
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: even though he did collapse there, like you mentioned, the
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: data that he's put on paper has been tremendous and
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: too strong finishes here to back that as well.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: How much value do you put on recent performance? Is
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: that weighted much heavier in in your modeling?
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: It definitely varies week by week, and I think there
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: is there can be some noise to that because we
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: can see guys who you know, have a spike week.
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: I know we're going to talk about JJ spawn a
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: little bit, but he was a guy who had been
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: struggling and obviously spiked and and won last week. But
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: over the course of the Master's history, when we have
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: been looking at especially strokes gain data over the last
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: five or six years, you just don't see many spike
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: weeks here. So you need to have some consistent play
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: coming into not to say that there won't be outliers
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: guys who can turn things around, but you know, when
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: we are looking for a spot to maybe find find
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: your way, find your groove, August is not necessarily the
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: spot there. So yeah, I think this week in particular,
• 24:40
  Speaker 4: you know, when it went back testing the model and
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: seeing what is some solid signal indicators, recent form is
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: certainly up there at the top.
• 24:48
  Speaker 7: Do you account like noise in people's personal life into this,
• 24:51
  Speaker 7: because obviously, like I'm going to fade Rory just because
• 24:54
  Speaker 7: of the trends, but he's going through a divorce, Brooks
• 24:57
  Speaker 7: Koepka just had another kid, Ashka Bati has been in
• 25:00
  Speaker 7: in India for the last couple of weeks, so he's
• 25:01
  Speaker 7: dealing with that time change. Is that something that you
• 25:03
  Speaker 7: filter into this or is it just you're kind of
• 25:05
  Speaker 7: in the mindset that like big dogs perform in moments
• 25:08
  Speaker 7: like this.
• 25:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's it's certainly hard, just because I
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: think every person could be different. I think there's no
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: way that I could account for that in the modeling.
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: But I would be lying if I said there haven't
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: been times where maybe I bet somebody or didn't bet
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: somebody because of an off the course narrative. But like
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: you mentioned, sometimes the big dogs just performing. You you know,
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: look at in the NBA, we had Luca go through
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: some some off the course stuff. And he responded by,
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: you know, going through that seven eight game strutch where
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: he averaged forty points a game, So I think it's
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: tough to you know, indicate that in terms of the
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: numbers there. But like you met, Like like I said earlier,
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: there's certainly been times where I've bet guys or haven't
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: bet guys because of an off the course narrative.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: I don't think I'm doing that this week.
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: I think maybe the one issue I might have is
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: with some potential injury stuff for a guy like Calin Morikawa,
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: maybe justin Thomas. Obviously Rory's had some injury stuff as well,
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: all but Marko is the one guy that I've been
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: trying to factor that in. I think he has probably
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: the biggest range of outcomes there with his off the
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: course injury stuff.
• 26:08
  Speaker 5: I was actually gonna ask about more Kawa because I mean,
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: I know that his putting can be an issue at times,
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: but he's playing really well. So we mentioned recent form
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: right and the course history. I think he's finished in
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: the top twenty here every year since twenty twenty one,
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: but is so at what thirty five forty to one?
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: I did seven minutes of research this morning when I
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: woke up for an hour at seven, So he's the
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: five names I come up with. So I know a
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: lot of people have put a lot of work in,
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: but did anyone really wake up at seven in the
• 26:35
  Speaker 5: morning put seven minutes of working like that? Probably not.
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: But Mark cow was the first name. So are there
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: are injury concerns there?
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah? So he was he withdrew after the first hole.
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: He might not even played the first hole, but it
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: was like you know, at the at the tee at
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: the players. So he's actually when looking at my model,
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: he's popping as the best value for an outright bet.
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: But that's because the market's obviously factoring in this back issue.
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: And late last night we got a report that he
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: says he's taking it day by day. I think golf
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: is the toughest sport to actually factor in injury stuff
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: because we don't have, you know, a normal injury report.
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: There will be times where guys with draw from tournaments
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: and we just don't know what happened. And you know,
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: a lot of times if it's a back thing, like
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: we can't see it, and you know, not to get
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: too gruvesome, but like you know, when we've watched the
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: NFL and we see somebody, you know, tear the ACL
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: we kind of know that, you know, we know what
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: that is. We don't really get that sort of you know,
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: clear and and clarity I suppose for golf injuries, and
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: sometimes we just don't.
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: Even get word on it at all. So yeah, morecaw.
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: It is definitely someone that I'm kind of considering how
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: I want to factor in that potential injury is it's
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: a back issue, which is always kind of the back
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: and risk are the worst things for me to consider
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: in golf, So I think more how it, like I said,
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: popping as the best outright value in the model. That's
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: because my model is not factoring in any injury stuff
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: right now because it's just so tough to bake that in.
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: But the markets are certainly giving him a pretty significant
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: discount for the price week all right.
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: Other ones I had, Well, this one is just obvious
• 28:03
  Speaker 5: because I bet him every year. I stopped the past couple.
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: But he's had a little bit of a renaissance, justin Rose,
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: and he has obviously great history here. Thirty to one.
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: Is that not enough?
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: I think Rose, like you mentioned, he has a great
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: history here. He's someone who I think has kind of
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: turned his game around at times. Obviously the players he
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: performed really well after missing two cuts in his two
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: events prior. He obviously won the Farmers earlier this season,
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: So he's someone who has been up and down at times.
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: So I think when you're looking to back an outright player,
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: I think Rose is some of that sort of fits
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: that profile, just because he does have the up and
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: down variants I suppose, and like you mentioned the history here,
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: I sort of also fit that profile. He finished seventh
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: and twenty twenty one, and that was a season where
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: he wasn't playing all that great and he had the
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: really strong round one that sort of carried him to
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: the top ten finish in last year as well with
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: a second place finish, But in that last five year stretch,
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: he also missed the cut twice. So he's someone that
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: I'll be looking in the top five or the outright
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: market rather than know more of a of a safe
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: bet like a top twenty, because I do think he
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: carries a lot of volatility. So if you're gonna take
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: on that risk, you might as well look for more
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: return there for Rose.
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: And then my last three you could take one take
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: wherever you want. You can talk about all three one
• 29:16
  Speaker 5: of them whatever, whatever you want. But my last three
• 29:17
  Speaker 5: were I tend to I like to live in the
• 29:20
  Speaker 5: thirty to forty to one range. This is how this
• 29:22
  Speaker 5: is my science. I told you my seven minute science,
• 29:25
  Speaker 5: casual gamble science. So I guess fit Fitzpatrick at like
• 29:31
  Speaker 5: twenty two to one, he's taking some money. I think
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: he's come down a little bit. Was another name. That
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: was the name my golf guy told me that he likes.
• 29:38
  Speaker 5: But the other two were Minwouli and Seawoo Kim. Any
• 29:42
  Speaker 5: thoughts on either any of those three.
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think your your science is doing
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: you some justice because I also tend to like this
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: the thirty to forty range, especially most weeks. I think
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: this week I tend to find myself pushing up to
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: the top of the board a little bit more. But Fitzpatrick,
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: obviously he's been playing exceptionally. He finished second to play
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: and probably should have won that tournament. Then he obviously
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: came back the following tournament and won the valspar so
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: he's been playing great. When looking at my model, there's
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: not many guys who grade out as positive grades in
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: every single category that I'm factoring in this week. Fitzpatrick
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: grades out positively in all of them except for the
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: off the te fit. I do think that looking at
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: his overall landscape of distance, that's something that has also
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: changed as of late. So I think he's maybe even
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: a better fit than my model is giving him credit
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: for in terms of the short term because he has
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: added distance. So I like Fitzpatrick also like the menual
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: Lee call. He's someone who I think could He has
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: the distance to compete here, and he also has some
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: very strong short game skills. Around the green is going
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: to be crucial. There's a lot of chatter about how
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: difficult the greens are at Augusta National. I feel like
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: every single year we get the discussion, you know, if
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: someone was starting on the green and had to put
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: every single hole from the furthest point in the green,
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: would you be able to make the cut or win
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: or whatever if you were just a you know, an
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: amateur or a casual golfer. And because of how difficult
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: these greens are, but it's all about putting yourself in
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: the reposition and manually, I think is someone who can
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: do that, and then when he does fail to do
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: that I think is around the green game. Well, we'll
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: certainly back him there. The sepil Kim's on a guy
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: I've been backing, you know, pretty much all year, and
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: I think this forty nine to one I'm seeing on
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: draftings forty five, I think, you know, in that range
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: is someone that I would I would also have some
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: interesting but I think I would rank them Fitzpatrick manually
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: and then Skim and that group.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: Before we take a deeper look down the board, I
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: want to spend a moment on the guy that's at
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: the top of it, Scotty Scheffler plus four ninety over
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: on DraftKings as the outright winner, best golfer in the world.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: Nobody on here is going to dispute that. But he
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: hasn't really been in peak form this year. So is
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: this a buying opportunity because of a nearly five to
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: one on Scotty or is this not the time to
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: bet Scotty Scheffler because he's cold.
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: I think for me, it's it's I'm personally not going
• 32:02
  Speaker 4: to be betting him here at the five to one number.
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: It's just, you know, I typically am not finding myself
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: betting guys at this number. And obviously it does become
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: unfortunate when Scotty is on his dominant streak. So like
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: this year has been nice to have some unfamiliar names
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: in the in the running. But yeah, five to one
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: I haven't priced it's a fair bet. I think if
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: you wanted to back the best player in the world,
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: it's not not anything that the model is going to
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: persuade you against. But I just find more value down
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: the board a bit, because again, like it's just so
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: difficult to finish tournaments, especially at Augusta, and obviously Scotty
• 32:36
  Speaker 4: has all the course history stuff that you want here.
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: But you know, at that five to one, right around
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: five to one number, I don't see a ton of
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: value betting that. I know that there's other ways to
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: bet Scotty, but for me in the ould markets, it's
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: going to be a pass for me on Scotty, which
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: is always a scary feeling.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Xander Shothley always the bride's made, never the bride. He's
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: finished inside the top ten five of the last seven
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: years at Augusta Tide for second in twenty nineteen. Is
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: he worth a look or perhaps plus two to seventy
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: five as a top five finisher, maybe.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: The better way him.
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Xander quite a bit.
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: This week, he grazes out as the fourth best player
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: in my model And you know, like I mentioned, there's
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: not many guys who grade out positively in every single
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: category that I'm tracking this week, Xander is one of them.
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: He's one of four players with positive grade and all
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: the Model metrics this week, so eighteen to one. I
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: think he's certainly a good bet. He's one of my
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: favorite bets. I do think that he's someone that I
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: prefer in the top ten market. I think that'll maybe
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: make Kendra a little bit even more happy about the
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: the Xander bet, but just because he has struggled to
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: win these big events. But that's the thing about guys
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: who struggle to win, they do until they until they
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: finally come through. It's been the case with guys like
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: Tommy Fleetwood, Tony fen Now a few years back. So
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: we always hear about that narrative and that stuff.
• 33:51
  Speaker 5: That's every sport. We just college basketball descended. You just
• 33:54
  Speaker 5: always hear that about like so many college basketball coaches. Yeah,
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: like though they can't win the big one, well, it's
• 33:59
  Speaker 5: hard to win the big one and there's a lot
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: of other good players, good teams. So yeah, that narrative
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: usually carries a little bit too much weight in many sports.
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's hard to win it, but it's also very
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: hard to be in it consistently, like Xander has done.
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: So I think that he actually gets not enough credit
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: for how consistently he's been performing here, especially at the Masters.
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: So I think that's something that people kind of dock
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: for him, but it really should be looked at as
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: an extreme positive because I do think he's bound to
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: break through eventually.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: One more before we get to Pimento cheese sandwiches. JJ
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: spawn explain this one to me. The reigning US Open
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: champion coming off of a win at Valero seventy two
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: to one at DraftKings, what is this price?
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think he's someone that I mentioned who kind
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: of had the outlier spike week last week with the
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: win at the Valero kind of came from pretty far
• 34:51
  Speaker 4: down the leader board there, but the recent data prior
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: to that had been rough. He missed three of his
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: three the last five cuts in his last five events.
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: He did have a solid showing at the Players, where
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: he obviously performed well last year, lost to Rory in
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: the playoff at the Players in twenty twenty five. But
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: the data certainly points to some question marks in his game,
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: especially the short game right now for JJ spawn And
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: like I said, I think that there's a time to
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: look for a bounce back or to look for a correction,
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: and you could say that maybe he found that last week.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: But it was also a fun little obviously range shot
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: tracker there at the Masters, which we don't typically get
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: across the PGA Tour environment. But jjspawd took the zero
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: shots on the practice range yesterday, so maybe celebrating the
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: win a little bit, maybe a little bit delayed in
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: his travels. But so I think the market tends to
• 35:45
  Speaker 4: give these guys who just won the previous week a
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: bit of a discount for maybe a win hangover, which
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: tends to happen in other sports as well, but certainly
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: in the golf world. So yeah, the win last week
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: is nice, but the rest of the data does look
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: to not point in JJ swans favor.
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: So I think that's why the odds are longer here.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: So we'll fade. We'll fade that one.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Give us your favorite long shot or a couple of
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: your favorite long shots.
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the guy who I mentioned maybe not
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: necessarily a long shot, but Patrick Reid at forty three
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: to one on Draftings is probably the guy the longest
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: number that's popping as a strong outright value for me
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: this week. I think if you wanted to really go
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: down the board, would I would probably advise against getting
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: too crazy because again, you just typically don't see crazy
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: outlier wins here at the matter, we have seen it before.
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: Anything can happen.
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: There is a reason why these guys are, you know,
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: two fifty to one and whatnot. But a couple of
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: names in terms of if you really want to get crazy,
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: Carlos Ortiz I like a guy who has certainly had
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: the ability to go low across multiple tours. He's on
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: Live right now, but I had some success on the
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: PGA tour. Corey Connors around you know, one hundred to one,
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: ninety to one I like, and then I guess more
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: of a reasonable longer shot than at seventy eight to
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: one on DraftKings. Nikolai Hoygard is someone that I like
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: quite a bit. Back to him last week wasn't able
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: to come through, but I think he's someone who also
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: fits this course extremely well. He's very similar, in my opinion,
• 37:11
  Speaker 4: to the way that Ludvig Oberg plays. So I think
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: Hoyard is going to be probably my favorite option down
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: the board of it.
• 37:17
  Speaker 7: All Right, we started with food, We're gonna end with food.
• 37:20
  Speaker 7: I have a couple things to go through here, obviously
• 37:23
  Speaker 7: famous Masters Champions dinner menu. Rory's rocking with a peach
• 37:27
  Speaker 7: and ricotta flatbread, starter, rock ship rock shrimped and pora
• 37:31
  Speaker 7: and bacon, rap dates and grilled elk sliders for first course.
• 37:34
  Speaker 7: He's going yellowfin tuna carpaccio, and then main courses wagu
• 37:39
  Speaker 7: filet or seared salmon, sticky toffee pudding for dessert. How
• 37:43
  Speaker 7: do you think this menu kind of compares two menus
• 37:45
  Speaker 7: of old and what would you have on your menu
• 37:48
  Speaker 7: if you could have a couple things?
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think my favorite thing about the Masters meals
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: is that the way that they kind of bring in
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: their hometown foods. I suppose my favorite thing about ROR's
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: meal specifically is he got really in depth into the wine.
• 38:04
  Speaker 6: This wine.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: Yes, I don't know if that's a normal thing.
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: I will say maybe I don't pay attention enough attention
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: to the master's meals. But I feel like this year
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: it stood out to me, is like that was a
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: maybe a new thing.
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: I thought that was pretty cool.
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: Obviously I don't mind it indulging in some good wine myself,
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: but that's something that I definitely saw. I think for me,
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: I would probably be the person that gets made fun
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: of if I, you know, had to bring a master's
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: meal to the to the forefront, I would certainly, you know,
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: hopefully look to my inner circle and be like, give
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: me some good ideas that I can, you know, really
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: bring some inspiration from. But I do like the way
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: that Rory really leaned into the wine aspect, and I
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: like seeing the way that they all kind of bring
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: their hometown meals back into the into the menu.
• 38:43
  Speaker 6: What's something that you would have to have.
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: I would have to have some steak on there. That's
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: for sure very basic and that in that realm, I
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: think I almost think that I would probably do something
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: almost kind of funny in my opinion with it.
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: And I liked, you have a pizza party.
• 38:59
  Speaker 6: Like somebody did chicken nuggets a couple of years ago.
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: I would a thousand percent do pizza like I just
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: love I can eat pizza, breakfast, lunch, and dinner. I
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: would have to do some aspect to have some pizza
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: in there.
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: For sure.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: I would have a beef Wellington without a doubt. If
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: I can get anytime, you can get steak wrapped in
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: a croissant.
• 39:19
  Speaker 6: Sign me the making everybody's life hard.
• 39:22
  Speaker 5: I'm going like southern, like just lots of southern staples.
• 39:25
  Speaker 5: I think like Patrick Reed had and Justin Johnson had
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: good ones in that in that realm. But yeah, I
• 39:31
  Speaker 5: pizza party would be funny. It's just like it would
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: be funny. Thing just says pizza party.
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: That's it.
• 39:37
  Speaker 6: Okay. Last question.
• 39:38
  Speaker 7: Every year we get the build your ten dollars order
• 39:41
  Speaker 7: at the Masters. I dropped the menu in the chat.
• 39:44
  Speaker 7: I want to know what everyone's ten dollars order would be.
• 39:47
  Speaker 7: I can start while you guys pull this up. I'm
• 39:49
  Speaker 7: gonna go a Pimento cheese for my sandwich.
• 39:53
  Speaker 6: I'm gonna go the chicken biscuit.
• 39:55
  Speaker 7: For breakfast, the Georgia peach ice cream sandwich. And I
• 39:59
  Speaker 7: hate to be boring, but I'm going to mix in
• 40:00
  Speaker 7: a water because I'm probably gonna be drinking all day.
• 40:02
  Speaker 7: So I think that lands me at nine to fifty.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I think that's more expensive than that because the Georgia peach.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, I did some digging on this. This is
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: the most prep that I did this morning. And the
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Georgia peach. The problem with that ice sandwich it that
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: but like that's two fifty right there.
• 40:19
  Speaker 7: Pimento cheese is a dollar fifty. The chicken miskuts three dollars,
• 40:23
  Speaker 7: Georgia peach three dollars. Water two dollars.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: So the water saves you. I have the I threw
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: an import beer in there. I'm an ipa guide. So
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: it's kind of the same category cost wise pimento cheese
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: because it's a staple. Then you get cookies plural, by
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: the way, more than one cookie for a dollar fifty.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: You can't beat that Southern cheese straws. That gets me
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: at exactly ten bucks.
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm gone, I'm gone. Just give me an egg salad,
• 40:53
  Speaker 5: some chips.
• 40:53
  Speaker 6: By the eggs right now, eggs.
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: I love eggs, eggs, salad.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: Chiffs, and uh put that ship into my pocket and.
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: Then give me the beer. H And that's uh, that's nine.
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: I got an extra dollar to keep the chug.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, keep the change, all right, Kyle, do they take
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: tips at Augusta.
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: That's a good question. I have to get on the grounds.
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: Someone's got to find me an inn, so I can
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: I can figure out if I can, If you can
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: get me on there, I'll I'll make sure the tips
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: are are are plentiful there if I can, I'll do
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: anything I can to get on the on the grounds.
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: But I would definitely go with the pimento cheese. Gotta
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: do that just for the nostalgia and the kind of
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: the the aura of Augusta. Then I'll take the chicken
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: biscuit there. I'll go with the cookies and then give
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: me an iced tea.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: Okay, an iced tea and Augusta would hit just right.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, time to plant our flag on the masters who
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: dons the green jacket over on draft kings where the
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: crown is yours.
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: And shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag and that day long
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: shots top fives. I guess you can bet this any
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: which way that you want. Stucky will start with you
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: in your seven minutes of research.
• 42:14
  Speaker 5: Hey, no one, no one expects anything from me here,
• 42:18
  Speaker 5: So let's go for a shot at glory. I will
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: be betting this. So let's go. Uh, Let's let me
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: see what he's at at DraftKings. Did you, Kyle, did
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: you say he's Sea who's forty seven to one? There?
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: Forty nine is where I had it as a.
• 42:36
  Speaker 6: Forty ninety's forty nine right now?
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: See, let's go Sea, who came out right forty nine
• 42:41
  Speaker 5: to one? Baby? So if it hits, you can clip this.
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: I will be betting it myself, and if he doesn't,
• 42:47
  Speaker 5: no one will ever remember because no one's gonna follow
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: my advice on this.
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: Kendrin, what about you?
• 42:54
  Speaker 7: I was gonna go shoftly outright, but just in case
• 42:58
  Speaker 7: people want to parlay this, I'm gonna go him top
• 43:00
  Speaker 7: five plus three oh five over on DraftKings right.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: Now, plus three oh five top five. I like that.
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna tell you on that top five.
• 43:09
  Speaker 6: Get into the app.
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: I go to the Arnold.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: Palmer Invitational at bay Hill every year, so I end
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: up overrating the individual that wins that event every single year.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Akshay Batia fifty seven to one. The guy's twenty four
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: years old, He's won three times on the PGA Tour,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: already fifth best tee to green on tour. How about
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: that for stat Skyle, So I'm a sucker for lefties
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: at Augusta as well.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: I'll take ok Shay for the long shot.
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: Bye way, my my my bat last year at the
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: Masters was was Batilla and my golf guy. Over the
• 43:45
  Speaker 5: course of three months, like three or four months, maybe
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: even longer five six months leading up to it was
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: just convincing me to add more. So I don't know
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: I had this huge because that wasn't huge. But like
• 43:57
  Speaker 5: for me, all this money on didn't end well. But
• 44:00
  Speaker 5: I wish you luck.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: Thank you. It is in the app by the way,
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: so this is an official play.
• 44:05
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I just logged into the app as well.
• 44:06
  Speaker 5: I have the log mine. I'm at the vetom first
• 44:08
  Speaker 5: and log of them.
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: But Kyle, you're here for the advice that people actually want,
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: so go ahead.
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: I will say Lupi's at Augusta has been a thing,
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: and I just remember, I think a really distinct memory
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: on Seawi Kim. I don't know, I want to say
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: it was at Augusta, but I think on a Thursday
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: or Friday round he got really really upset through his
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: putter in the water maybe or maybe snapped and he
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: was putting with his three wood. That just clicked into
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: my head. So that was funny, uh to see Kim
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: memory that just unfolded there. But I like Cameron Young
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: for an outright winner. Obviously he's coming off of the
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: player's victory kind of came from behind there. I think
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: he's just such a good fit for this course. He
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: has all the tea degreen requirements that you need. He
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: has this this spike ability on the greens as well
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: with the putter. The forum has been fantastic. He's had
• 44:51
  Speaker 4: a couple of good showings here at Augusta as well.
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: Did missed the cut last year, but prior to that
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: back to back top ten finishes. This will be his
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: fifth time at Augusta. And then I'll throw out another
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: bet Darling Patrick read for a top ten as well.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: Fantastic that a right there.
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: Our plant the flag on the Masters out of Augusta
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: presented by Draft Kings A recap for you. Kendra is
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: on Xanderschoffley plus three zero five top five finisher Stucky
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: is on Sewou Kim forty nine to one outright. I'm
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: on Akshay Battia fifty seven to one outright. Winner and
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: Kyle Murray cam Young outright twenty three to one, and
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: then Patrick reed that was top ten finish yep, top ten. Kyle,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: you have been a phenomenal guest. Thanks so much for
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: enlightening us on all things masters. Enjoy the tournament, and
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: congrats again on your Michigan Wolverines.
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: Thank you appreciate it.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: That's going to do it for today's episode special thanks
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: to our producers David Paine and Gifford gold stat sound
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams in the cut as well. The Favorites will
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: return on Thursday afternoon right here on the Action Network
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: YouTube page and wherever you download your favorite podcast. Our
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: show has been presented by DraftKings. The Crown is yours.
• 46:13
  Speaker 6: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 46:18
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• 46:21
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