Latest / The Mark Belling Podcast / Mark Belling Podcast #163: We have a bidding war! Trump tries to out-promise the Marxists but the GOP mini-convention spotlight is stolen by Fetterman and Gill. The nation freaks as an ex-employee of Anthropic says AI could wipe out civilization by 2030. And a look back at the murder of Charlie Kirk and the 25th anniversary of 9/11.

Transcript

Mark Belling Podcast #163: We have a bidding war! Trump tries to out-promise the Marxists but the GOP mini-convention spotlight is stolen by Fetterman and Gill. The nation freaks as an ex-employee of Anthropic says AI could wipe out civilization by 2030. And a look back at the murder of Charlie Kirk and the 25th anniversary of 9/11. · The Mark Belling Podcast

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0:25
Speaker 2: For many years, I've been giving Republicans this piece of advice.
0:31
Speaker 2: I've been telling them, you can't out-promise the Democrats. If
0:36
Speaker 2: you come up with some program or something that gives
0:39
Speaker 2: something away to people or something to woo votes, the
0:43
Speaker 2: Democrats will always top you because they have no restraint
0:47
Speaker 2: at all. They have no responsibility. You can't out-promise them.
0:51
Speaker 2: You can't out-Marxism them. You can't out-Socialism them. Now, I've
0:56
Speaker 2: given that advice, as I said, to Republicans forever, and
0:58
Speaker 2: I've often given that advice to squishy Republicans who.
1:04
Speaker 2: Think that betraying conservative principles is the way to get elected,
1:07
Speaker 2: that when Democrats are out there promising this credit and
1:10
Speaker 2: that credit and this giveaway and that giveaway and free
1:13
Speaker 2: cell phones and free health care, that you can't try
1:16
Speaker 2: to compete with that by promising a bunch of free
1:20
Speaker 2: stuff yourself. You're in a position forever. But we've never
1:26
Speaker 2: had a Republican like Trump. There's never been a Republican
1:30
Speaker 2: like Trump. So he comes out at this mini GOP convention, which,
1:36
Speaker 2: all right, let's admit this. It's stupid. You don't need
1:39
Speaker 2: to have a convention in the middle of the midterm.
1:42
Speaker 2: It's a dumb thing. But Trump wanted to have it,
1:44
Speaker 2: so they have it. And he says, if the Republicans
1:49
Speaker 2: win the House and Senate, I'm going to give every
1:50
Speaker 2: American five grand. Now, before I even analyze whether or
1:59
Speaker 2: not that's possible, I want to discuss the fact that
2:03
Speaker 2: he's so bodacious that he said this. A few other
2:08
Speaker 2: things that I want to mention off the top that
2:10
Speaker 2: we're going to get into today. Two poignant anniversaries. Today,
2:14
Speaker 2: the day I release the podcast, is the one-year anniversary
2:16
Speaker 2: of the murder of Charlie Kirk. And, of course, tomorrow, Friday, 9-11,
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Speaker 2: is the 25th anniversary of 9-11. Brief discussions of both
2:24
Speaker 2: of those on today's podcast. Lots of stuff coming up,
2:27
Speaker 2: so let's get rolling here. When it comes to shipping, packaging,
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Speaker 2: industrial supplies, and equipment, Many suppliers offer endless aisles of product.
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2:58
Speaker 2: Visit Uline.com. So this midterm convention is going on in Dallas.
3:06
Speaker 2: Trump gets up and talks, and of course he puts
3:08
Speaker 2: on a show. And then he says, look, if the
3:14
Speaker 2: Republicans win the House and the Senate, if they keep
3:16
Speaker 2: the House and the Senate, I'm going to give you
3:21
Speaker 2: all $ 5, 000. First of all, he would have to get
3:27
Speaker 2: that approved by the House and the Senate. he's had
3:33
Speaker 2: enough trouble getting basic constitutional protections on voting through the
3:38
Speaker 2: United States Senate as it's constituted now to simply come
3:42
Speaker 2: out and say that I'm going to get these Republicans
3:44
Speaker 2: in the Senate, even if they keep control or the House.
3:49
Speaker 2: I don't know if he can deliver on this because
3:51
Speaker 2: he can't force them to do it. Second, I mean,
3:59
Speaker 2: If you look at it from the context that we're
4:01
Speaker 2: going to lower everybody's taxes by giving every American $ 5, 000,
4:03
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm all for anything that reduces our tax burden.
4:10
Speaker 2: This has some similarities to what in Wisconsin the Republicans
4:14
Speaker 2: and Tony Evers tried to do, deal killed by the Democrats,
4:17
Speaker 2: to provide property tax relief, tax rebates, and an increase
4:21
Speaker 2: in school aid. It's got some echoes of that. And
4:26
Speaker 2: for many people, getting $ 5, 000 back is just a drop
4:29
Speaker 2: in the bucket in terms of what they kick in.
4:31
Speaker 2: But giving it to all Americans means that you'd be
4:33
Speaker 2: giving a lot of people $ 5, 000 to pay almost no
4:38
Speaker 2: or no taxes whatsoever. And it's to me probably clearly inflationary.
4:44
Speaker 2: But the reality is, even if they keep the House
4:48
Speaker 2: and Senate, and most people don't think that they will,
4:53
Speaker 2: I just think it's not going to happen. But let's
4:56
Speaker 2: get to the almost more important point of this, and
4:59
Speaker 2: that is that Trump did it. There's nobody like him
5:06
Speaker 2: on the Republican side. Most Republicans are constrained by, this
5:13
Speaker 2: is how you have to behave. The Democrats threw off
5:17
Speaker 2: those constraints 25 years ago. They don't follow any rules
5:23
Speaker 2: at all of sanity, decorum. And the Republicans were. We're
5:28
Speaker 2: the responsible and kind of fuddy-duddy party. Then Trump comes along.
5:34
Speaker 2: And he certainly, in terms of showmanship, out-showmans the Democrats.
5:38
Speaker 2: Can you imagine any other Republican running for president? Chartering
5:43
Speaker 2: a garbage truck and driving it to the rally in
5:46
Speaker 2: Green Bay?
5:47
Speaker 3: Or.
5:47
Speaker 2: You know, getting behind the counter of the McDonald's and
5:49
Speaker 2: looking like he actually belonged there and having the time
5:52
Speaker 2: of his life. Not to mention the fact that he's
5:56
Speaker 2: been able to figure out political issues that neither party
5:59
Speaker 2: had really jumped on that really resonated with the American people.
6:03
Speaker 2: So he comes up with this. It may have the
6:08
Speaker 2: look of desperation. And it may well be that Trump
6:14
Speaker 2: is at the point of some people simply tuning him out.
6:19
Speaker 2: It's also possible that it may even backfire, that it
6:21
Speaker 2: sounds like he's just promising the moon and maybe cutting
6:26
Speaker 2: into the Republican attack against the Democrats' Marxism and how
6:32
Speaker 2: their giveaways that everything's free and all of that stuff
6:35
Speaker 2: is actually disastrous. It is, however, an indication that Trump
6:42
Speaker 2: is hell-bent on not being irrelevant. Now, one other point
6:46
Speaker 2: on this. without regard to which way the midterms go,
6:54
Speaker 2: Trump becomes somewhat less relevant. The middle of November of
7:00
Speaker 2: this year, he is a lame duck. He's still the president.
7:05
Speaker 2: And if the Democrats get control of the House and
7:07
Speaker 2: the Senate, they're going to impeach him. They're going to investigate.
7:10
Speaker 2: It's going to be nonstop hearings, subpoenaing everything. And they're
7:14
Speaker 2: going to try to stop him from governing altogether, which
7:16
Speaker 2: would actually probably put him more in the news than
7:19
Speaker 2: than if the Republicans keep the House and Senate. But
7:23
Speaker 2: if the Republicans keep the House and Senate and things
7:25
Speaker 2: stay the way that they are, the attention is going
7:27
Speaker 2: to be primarily based on the two presidential primaries that
7:30
Speaker 2: are going to be getting underway really about then. Trump's
7:35
Speaker 2: not going to like that, and Trump is going to
7:37
Speaker 2: do the same kinds of things that he did last
7:39
Speaker 2: night in Dallas, and he's going to make sure that
7:41
Speaker 2: he remains front and center. Now, while the Trump announcement
7:45
Speaker 2: was certainly quite the thing, there were I'm not going
7:49
Speaker 2: to say more interesting. There were two other speakers taking
7:57
Speaker 2: a completely different, I think, tack than Trump that are
8:01
Speaker 2: worth commenting on. This is, as I say, a Republican mini-convention.
8:08
Speaker 2: John Fetterman appeared via videotape. He is a Democrat. And
8:18
Speaker 2: He did this video speech in which he used as
8:23
Speaker 2: strong of terms as I've ever heard from any Republican
8:26
Speaker 2: in condemning socialism. He's about the only prominent Democrat, mainstream
8:33
Speaker 2: Democrat in America, condemning the Marxist wing of that party.
8:40
Speaker 2: I've been arguing that the Democrats are now essentially the
8:43
Speaker 2: Marxist party because even though many of their elected officials
8:47
Speaker 2: are not really Marxists, they are putting up no resistance.
8:52
Speaker 2: The Marxists are demanding control both politically and policy in
8:56
Speaker 2: that party, and the rest of the old bull Democrats
9:00
Speaker 2: are rolling over and are fine with it. If Francesca
9:05
Speaker 2: Hong had won the governor's primary, they would have all
9:08
Speaker 2: rallied behind her. And even when Tony Evers launched the
9:13
Speaker 2: attacks on her on behalf of Crowley, they never attacked
9:18
Speaker 2: her for being a Marxist. They attacked her because they
9:20
Speaker 2: said she couldn't win. So Fetterman's the only Democrat out
9:26
Speaker 2: there who's actually defending the things that the Democratic Party
9:35
Speaker 2: has stood for. On that real quickly. There are a
9:40
Speaker 2: few others that are in this category. Bill Maher is
9:43
Speaker 2: one of them. Just classic Democrat liberals who haven't changed
9:48
Speaker 2: their classic Democrat liberal views, but are aghast that so
9:55
Speaker 2: many of the things that they've believed in, liberal stuff,
9:59
Speaker 2: is being rejected. by the current Democrat party. The Democrats
10:05
Speaker 2: traditionally have been great believers in religious tolerance. Yet now,
10:10
Speaker 2: the Democrats seem to be taken over by people who
10:13
Speaker 2: believe in total Muslim intolerance taken over by people who
10:19
Speaker 2: have become openly anti-Semitic and largely anti-Christian. The Democrats have
10:27
Speaker 2: always been the party that has positioned itself as pro-women.
10:32
Speaker 2: The Democrats right now are anti-women. If you're not going
10:40
Speaker 2: to defend the right of women to have their own
10:43
Speaker 2: sports and be able to compete against other women, you
10:45
Speaker 2: certainly aren't arguing for any type of women's rights. If
10:49
Speaker 2: you're going to argue that you can receive women's rights
10:54
Speaker 2: just by claiming you're a woman when you're not, you
10:57
Speaker 2: can't come up with anything that is more traditionally anti-woman.
11:05
Speaker 2: There are others. But my point is, is that Fetterman, Ma,
11:11
Speaker 2: and a handful of the others, I think are still
11:14
Speaker 2: in love with the beliefs that the Democratic Party held,
11:18
Speaker 2: the ones that have been totally repudiated now. If you
11:25
Speaker 2: just look at the war in Ukraine, where admittedly the
11:27
Speaker 2: Republican position has been all over the map, the Democrats
11:31
Speaker 2: were cheerleaders for that thing and still are. All my life,
11:36
Speaker 2: the Democrats were the anti-war party. So they flipped on
11:41
Speaker 2: any number of things. And you see a guy like
11:43
Speaker 2: Fetterman now go in and suck it up to the enemy,
11:47
Speaker 2: the Republicans, by doing this video address there. Now, many
11:51
Speaker 2: people are wondering, is he going to quit the Republican,
11:53
Speaker 2: quit the Democratic Party and just become a Republican? Well,
11:56
Speaker 2: I don't know. If he became a Republican, he'd be
12:00
Speaker 2: to the left of Susan Collins. He'd be somebody whose
12:03
Speaker 2: only real purpose would be in adding a vote to
12:06
Speaker 2: the determination of who controls the Senate. So I don't
12:10
Speaker 2: know if he's going to do that or not. I
12:12
Speaker 2: do know this. The Democrats are done with him. I
12:15
Speaker 2: don't know if all of you are aware of this,
12:17
Speaker 2: but there was a hit piece in the Wall Street
12:18
Speaker 2: Journal on Fetterman about a week ago in which they
12:21
Speaker 2: quoted anonymous staffers saying Fetterman doesn't do any work. He
12:24
Speaker 2: doesn't meet any constituents. All he wants to do is
12:27
Speaker 2: go on TV and gives his talk. He's not doing
12:30
Speaker 2: any of the basic jobs of being a senator. Do
12:32
Speaker 2: you know how many senators you could say that about?
12:34
Speaker 2: About 65 of the 100 of them. All of them
12:38
Speaker 2: are out there posing for TV. They'll get involved in
12:41
Speaker 2: the various issues and make the speeches that they're on.
12:43
Speaker 2: The staff does the entire job. The reason this story
12:48
Speaker 2: is out now is because they're trying, his staffers probably
12:51
Speaker 2: include a whole lot of regular old Democrats who aren't
12:55
Speaker 2: going out there as open-minded as Fetterman, so they want
12:57
Speaker 2: to get rid of him. So the Democrats feel the need.
13:03
Speaker 2: Fetterman's up for election in 28th. They're going to probably
13:05
Speaker 2: run somebody against him in a Democratic primary, if he
13:08
Speaker 2: even runs as a Democrat. And say the guy's a sellout,
13:12
Speaker 2: he's a Republican, suck up, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
13:15
Speaker 2: That's already underway. The thing about Fetterman is when he
13:23
Speaker 2: ran in that election, he ran against Dr.
13:25
Speaker 3: Oz.
13:25
Speaker 2: I wonder how many people, that seems like 50 years
13:27
Speaker 2: ago and not, it was 22 only.
13:30
Speaker 3: Wow.
13:32
Speaker 2: Four years ago. Sometimes you think time flies and then
13:37
Speaker 2: you look at something like that and it seems like
13:38
Speaker 2: forever and ever ago. COVID really did that. It screwed
13:41
Speaker 2: up all of our timelines. Anyway, when Fetterman ran against Dr. Oz,
13:45
Speaker 2: he was adamantly backed by the progressive wing of the
13:47
Speaker 2: Democratic Party. They really wanted him in there, not just
13:51
Speaker 2: because of the seat. They overlooked the fact that he
13:55
Speaker 2: was out there stumbling around like an idiot. He was
13:57
Speaker 2: recovering from his stroke. His speech was as screwed up
14:06
Speaker 2: as Biden. He couldn't hold a train of thought. They
14:09
Speaker 2: defended and defended and defended and defended that. Well, now
14:13
Speaker 2: he's regained most of that. He's gotten in there and
14:16
Speaker 2: he's turned out to be nowhere near as liberal as
14:19
Speaker 2: his supporters thought he would be. As somebody who had
14:22
Speaker 2: a stroke. For some reason, the stroke's going to come
14:27
Speaker 2: up twice on today's podcast by total coincidence. It's another
14:29
Speaker 2: topic we're going to get to later. Anyway, somebody who's
14:32
Speaker 2: had it. And as far as I could tell, had
14:34
Speaker 2: absolutely no changes whatsoever in terms of how my brain worked.
14:37
Speaker 2: I was very lucky. I wonder if something happened to
14:41
Speaker 2: Federer in that these constraints that he has right now
14:47
Speaker 2: of just saying what you're supposed to say as a Democrat,
14:49
Speaker 2: it's like he had this stroke and his mind has
14:52
Speaker 2: opened up. And he's going to say what he damn
14:54
Speaker 2: well pleases. And if he believes something, he's going to
14:56
Speaker 2: say it without regard to whether or not AOC or
14:59
Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders doesn't like it. You see somebody like Schumer,
15:02
Speaker 2: who I think probably agrees with Fetterman deep down, but
15:05
Speaker 2: is never going to say it because he's terrified of
15:07
Speaker 2: the Marxists in his own party. Fetterman, I think, has
15:10
Speaker 2: just been liberated and is screwed. That's what I think,
15:13
Speaker 2: and I'm going to say it. Also speaking at the
15:19
Speaker 2: Republican mini-convention, Brandon Gill, young congressman from Texas. I don't
15:28
Speaker 2: know if you all know about this, but there's been
15:31
Speaker 2: a tendency on the part of Democrats, especially liberals in Canada,
15:34
Speaker 2: but also Democrats here in the United States, to begin
15:38
Speaker 2: speeches by commenting on the fact that we're all on
15:42
Speaker 2: stolen land. It's just become a tiresome, it's like, you
15:46
Speaker 2: know when they all started wearing the ribbons for AIDS
15:49
Speaker 2: and then they all stopped? Before the AIDS ribbons, either
15:53
Speaker 2: before or after you had the breast cancer ribbons that
15:55
Speaker 2: everybody would wear and then suddenly nobody was wearing them?
15:58
Speaker 2: It's just a thing now that they all do. So
16:03
Speaker 2: Brendan Gill turned that whole issue around in his address.
16:08
Speaker 2: I'll quote. I was going to play the cut, but
16:10
Speaker 2: I can get through it quicker by just reading what
16:11
Speaker 2: he said. I'd like to acknowledge that we stand here
16:15
Speaker 2: today in the great state of Texas and the United
16:17
Speaker 2: States of America is the ancestral homeland. of great American patriots, pioneers,
16:23
Speaker 2: and explorers who put down roots, fight for freedom all
16:27
Speaker 2: over the globe, and bled and died to build the
16:31
Speaker 2: greatest civilization ever known to man. In an interview later,
16:39
Speaker 2: he explained why he did his turn on the land
16:43
Speaker 2: apology that the lefties are doing, Canada and the United States. Quote, Listen,
16:48
Speaker 2: you see Democrats all the time wanting to begin their
16:50
Speaker 2: conversations or their gatherings by acknowledging, making some bizarre land acknowledgement,
16:55
Speaker 2: that we live on stolen land and they essentially just
16:58
Speaker 2: want to apologize for our country. I think most Americans believe,
17:02
Speaker 2: rightfully so, that we live in the greatest country that's
17:04
Speaker 2: ever existed, and I'm not going to apologize for it.
17:07
Speaker 2: Certainly most Americans don't want their elected officials apologizing for
17:11
Speaker 2: it either. Gil has a future. He's already a star.
17:17
Speaker 2: He makes a name for himself in these, when there's
17:19
Speaker 2: a congressional committee hearing, he's always one of the more
17:22
Speaker 2: interesting questioners and in the committees that he's on, he
17:25
Speaker 2: always makes sure that he attends to ask questions and
17:28
Speaker 2: he's just very, very good at the way that he
17:30
Speaker 2: presents himself. So I think he clearly has, as long
17:34
Speaker 2: as he can stay out of the kind of trouble
17:37
Speaker 2: that some young Republicans get into, as long as he
17:39
Speaker 2: can stay out of trouble, I think he has a
17:41
Speaker 2: clear future in the party. But on this point that
17:43
Speaker 2: he makes, All this argument and criticism that America is
17:49
Speaker 2: not legitimate because it is not our ancestral homeland. I mean,
17:54
Speaker 2: I could do an entire podcast just debunking all of that.
17:57
Speaker 2: Then whose is it? If you could argue that it
18:00
Speaker 2: is land that belonged to the Native Americans, understand that
18:04
Speaker 2: the tribes themselves do not consider themselves to be the
18:08
Speaker 2: same nation. Each tribe is a separate nation and a
18:12
Speaker 2: separate country and It's like families in the mafia. I
18:15
Speaker 2: don't mean this to demean the Native Americans, but one
18:20
Speaker 2: mafia family didn't feel any particular loyalty to another mafia family.
18:24
Speaker 2: These tribes often hated one another and had wars over
18:27
Speaker 2: land themselves. You even see it now here in Wisconsin.
18:33
Speaker 2: Try to get one of the Indian tribes to share
18:35
Speaker 2: some of their casino revenue with another tribe. You can't
18:42
Speaker 2: extract that cash at all. I mean, the Potawatomi are
18:47
Speaker 2: obsessed with keeping the Menomonees destitute. So they're fighting those
18:51
Speaker 2: wars all along. So who do we know was originally there?
18:54
Speaker 2: And are we going to determine everything in the map
18:56
Speaker 2: on the basis of who was there 4,000 years ago?
19:00
Speaker 2: But if they're to make that argument, how do they
19:02
Speaker 2: then turn around and try to claim that Israel can't
19:04
Speaker 2: be Israel? Because if ever there were indigenous people, it's
19:07
Speaker 2: the Jews. God told Moses where to lay down root
19:14
Speaker 2: 4,000 years ago. That's when they were there, kicked out
19:21
Speaker 2: and back in several times, but that's their homeland. Let's
19:29
Speaker 2: discuss Europe. There was once a nation called Yugoslavia. It's
19:38
Speaker 2: now a jigsaw puzzle busted up into a zillion pieces.
19:42
Speaker 2: They've been fighting for hundreds and hundreds of years about
19:44
Speaker 2: whose land that is. Speaking of which, how have the
19:52
Speaker 2: Mexicans not done anything other than steal land? The Spanish
19:56
Speaker 2: conquistadors came in and settled there. Some of the natives stayed,
20:01
Speaker 2: some of the Spanish people stayed, and the Mexican race
20:05
Speaker 2: now is a mix of them. Is that land stolen? Well,
20:09
Speaker 2: certainly as much as the American land was stolen. And
20:13
Speaker 2: how about Canada? Even more so. The King of England
20:22
Speaker 2: sent over a bunch of ships to conquer the Indian
20:24
Speaker 2: tribes that are in Canada. Now, as I said, some
20:29
Speaker 2: of the Canadian leaders are saying all of that, but
20:31
Speaker 2: I don't see them giving any of it back. I
20:36
Speaker 2: would love, however, I'm not in favor of any of
20:38
Speaker 2: these repatriations or anything, but there is a certain part
20:40
Speaker 2: of Canada. If Quebec wanted to give Quebec back to
20:43
Speaker 2: some Indian tribe, I'd be all in favor of that.
20:45
Speaker 2: Get the French out of Canada whatsoever and anyway. Brandon
20:50
Speaker 2: Gill's talk. The whole world is going to be offering
20:55
Speaker 2: retrospectives of 9-11, so I'm not going to spend a
20:59
Speaker 2: lot of time on this. But I do think There's
21:09
Speaker 2: one point that I want to make here. After 9-11,
21:13
Speaker 2: you had this never again, never again, and we did
21:16
Speaker 2: make certain policy changes. There were two more wars in
21:20
Speaker 2: the Middle East after that. There was the whole attempt
21:23
Speaker 2: to knock out al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. We passed the Patriot
21:28
Speaker 2: Act and other legislation that expanded the ability of the
21:32
Speaker 2: government to monitor what groups were doing in the United States.
21:37
Speaker 2: I think most of those actions didn't do any good.
21:41
Speaker 2: And I'll admit, I supported all of them. I supported
21:46
Speaker 2: both wars with Iraq. I now think in retrospect that
21:52
Speaker 2: particularly the second war turned out to be a wash.
21:56
Speaker 2: It didn't accomplish much of anything. I was a strong
21:59
Speaker 2: supporter of the Patriot Act because I believe strongly in
22:02
Speaker 2: monitoring subversives that are in the United States, but it
22:05
Speaker 2: became an apparatus that just expanded the ability of the
22:10
Speaker 2: government to spy on all of us. Look at what
22:12
Speaker 2: happened during Biden. Look at how the CIA and the
22:17
Speaker 2: FBI went rogue. Look at how Obama used the IRS
22:22
Speaker 2: to clamp down on conservative organizations. In the meantime, We
22:33
Speaker 2: didn't seem to do anything to monitor much terrorism at all.
22:35
Speaker 2: The one thing I will say is there's not been
22:37
Speaker 2: a big 9-11 type attack since, and we've foiled a lot.
22:42
Speaker 2: So it's not like no good came out of that.
22:44
Speaker 2: To me, though, the larger thing to observe is Muslims
22:53
Speaker 2: who want to impose their thinking, their way of life,
22:57
Speaker 2: their religion, their belief system on the rest of us.
23:02
Speaker 2: aren't so much anymore trying to fly airplanes into buildings,
23:06
Speaker 2: in part because they've been stymied in that, but also
23:09
Speaker 2: they found it easier to just come in through the
23:11
Speaker 2: front door, swarm into cities, impose their will, in the
23:20
Speaker 2: case of the Somalians, tap into our social welfare system,
23:25
Speaker 2: take it over, make fortunes off of it, while we
23:27
Speaker 2: sit back and just let them do it. Look at
23:30
Speaker 2: what's going on in England and other countries in Europe.
23:35
Speaker 2: Where you have young Muslim males out and out raping
23:38
Speaker 2: young women, trying to impregnate them just to produce Muslim babies.
23:44
Speaker 2: And almost no one's condemning them. I've seen this number.
23:49
Speaker 2: There's been an 80% increase in Muslims in the United
23:53
Speaker 2: States since 9-11. Not so much because of conversion, but
23:56
Speaker 2: because of inflow. There was so much from the left
24:00
Speaker 2: after 9-11 that we can't use this as an opportunity
24:03
Speaker 2: to be bigoted against Muslims, and it turns out that
24:05
Speaker 2: we went in the opposite direction. We've allowed Muslims to
24:10
Speaker 2: come into the United States without making any attempt to
24:12
Speaker 2: accept the values of this country, but instead want to
24:15
Speaker 2: come in and change our values. Every nation has a
24:20
Speaker 2: culture and a set of values, and prior to this
24:23
Speaker 2: most recent period when people would immigrate, immigrate, emigrating, I guess,
24:28
Speaker 2: into that nation, migrate into that nation, use that term.
24:32
Speaker 2: It was because they wanted to be part of the
24:34
Speaker 2: values that that country had to offer. Charlie Kirk, I
24:40
Speaker 2: don't believe it's possible to overstate the loss. It's been
24:46
Speaker 2: only a year. Look at how fractured the conservative movement
24:49
Speaker 2: has been. The guy who killed Charlie Kirk, and I
24:53
Speaker 2: think that the evidence is rather overwhelming, that he either
24:57
Speaker 2: acted alone or acted with minimal help, a couple of friends.
25:02
Speaker 2: You've had some in the conservative movement wander off into
25:06
Speaker 2: borderline insanity, Tucker Carlson, and you've had others use Charlie
25:12
Speaker 2: Kirk's death as an opportunity for personal gain. Candace Owens
25:20
Speaker 2: in the way that only she can, hint with innuendo
25:24
Speaker 2: after innuendo after innuendo, never developing a fact, just saying,
25:28
Speaker 2: I'm only asking questions, isn't it interesting? Implying that Erica
25:32
Speaker 2: Kirk killed her husband. I mean, I found in my
25:40
Speaker 2: own career that being honest with the audience and sharing
25:43
Speaker 2: my opinions, even if the majority of people might not
25:45
Speaker 2: agree with me on that particular thing, has made me
25:48
Speaker 2: a tremendous success. I haven't had to go the route
25:52
Speaker 2: of pandering and say things in order to get ratings
25:54
Speaker 2: or an audience. But let's imagine I actually was in
25:58
Speaker 2: such survival mode that in order to survive, I got
26:00
Speaker 2: to start saying this, that, or the other thing. I
26:03
Speaker 2: just don't think I could go as low as Candace
26:05
Speaker 2: Owens is going and accuse this woman of killing her husband.
26:12
Speaker 2: And the fact of the matter is, is that she's
26:14
Speaker 2: done this and she's gained an audience. Now, as many
26:17
Speaker 2: people have pointed out, the audience is largely not in
26:19
Speaker 2: the United States. Podcasts and programs have global audiences, and
26:23
Speaker 2: she has a huge audience in other parts of the world,
26:28
Speaker 2: as has Tucker Carlson. I just think this, because Charlie
26:32
Speaker 2: Kirk had a greater following than any of them. Two
26:36
Speaker 2: things happened. A lot of people in the conservative movement
26:39
Speaker 2: wanted to take over his mantle as being the biggest spokesperson.
26:44
Speaker 2: Before Charlie, it was clearly Rush Limbaugh. Then communications changed
26:48
Speaker 2: and podcasting came in. Rush died. Charlie Kirk was the
26:52
Speaker 2: most influential non-politician conservative out there. For all the right reasons.
27:00
Speaker 2: He was the smartest, the most eloquent, the most informed,
27:04
Speaker 2: and the greatest communicator imaginable, in addition to the fact
27:06
Speaker 2: that he was an evangelist. He was a Christian evangelist.
27:11
Speaker 2: So he dies. Now, who's Mr. Begg? And a lot
27:13
Speaker 2: of people have wanted to take over that mantle, and
27:15
Speaker 2: I think Candace has been one of them. And she
27:18
Speaker 2: sees that Erica Kirk is put in to replace Charlie
27:21
Speaker 2: as the head of Turning Point. She doesn't like that. Okay,
27:23
Speaker 2: why does Erica get to do that? I'm going to
27:25
Speaker 2: trump Erica Kirk. I'm going to do a takedown. In
27:29
Speaker 2: the meantime, Tucker Carlson thinks that because he supported President
27:33
Speaker 2: Trump for re-election, he got to be able to dictate
27:35
Speaker 2: to Trump what Trump is supposed to do. And when
27:37
Speaker 2: Trump didn't listen to him on Israel and the war
27:43
Speaker 2: with Iran— The next thing you know, Tucker's out there
27:46
Speaker 2: sounding more radical than the average Muslim terrorist. I don't
27:53
Speaker 2: think any of them would have been able to get
27:54
Speaker 2: away with this had Charlie lived because Charlie's condemnation was
27:58
Speaker 2: essentially a nuke out of anyone right of center. He
28:02
Speaker 2: was that influential and had that broad base of trust.
28:07
Speaker 2: But there's nobody out there anymore to put, and I
28:09
Speaker 2: don't know that you should have someone policing the right.
28:11
Speaker 2: We have an initiative free speech, and if Candace wants
28:14
Speaker 2: to say this, or Megan Kelly wants to say that,
28:17
Speaker 2: or if I want to say this, and anybody that
28:19
Speaker 2: should be policing us, but in terms of having any
28:21
Speaker 2: kind of sway, Charlie Kirk was such the unifier that
28:26
Speaker 2: I think that a diss from him would have discredited politically, Again,
28:36
Speaker 2: it's a tremendous loss. Turning Point is trying to retain
28:40
Speaker 2: the organization and structure that existed when Charlie was there.
28:43
Speaker 2: But as I say, there are so many people trying
28:45
Speaker 2: to tear it down because of their own selfish reasons.
28:48
Speaker 2: Charlie was the first person on the conservative side to
28:52
Speaker 2: adopt what I've been arguing for 10 years Republicans need
28:55
Speaker 2: to adopt, which is to realize that voter mobilization, getting
29:00
Speaker 2: people out to vote, getting people registered to vote, getting
29:02
Speaker 2: them out to vote, making sure that every last one
29:05
Speaker 2: of the people who agrees with you votes becomes as
29:08
Speaker 2: high a priority as swaying one over to your point
29:12
Speaker 2: of view. And the Republicans have been terrible at that,
29:15
Speaker 2: and the Democrats have dominated. In 2024, largely because of
29:19
Speaker 2: Turning Point, the Republican get-out-the-vote operation was as good as
29:23
Speaker 2: the Democrats get-out-the-vote operation. There was a messenger in Trump, obviously,
29:28
Speaker 2: but the legwork and the groundwork, Turning Point did a
29:30
Speaker 2: lot of that. And as I look at us now
29:33
Speaker 2: here in 2026, I don't know that there's the same
29:36
Speaker 2: sort of muscle, people on the ground trying to find
29:40
Speaker 2: somebody who's whining about gas prices motivate that person to
29:43
Speaker 2: vote anyway, saying, you want to turn the country over
29:45
Speaker 2: to a bunch of Marxists? We're going to destroy this nation.
29:49
Speaker 2: He was very good at that. So the loss of
29:52
Speaker 2: Charlie Kirk was, I just think, It would have been
29:57
Speaker 2: equivalent to if one of these assassination attempts on Trump
30:01
Speaker 2: had been successful. It is a terrible, terrible, terrible loss.
30:06
Speaker 2: And rather than bringing conservatives together, which it did for
30:09
Speaker 2: like five days, it's torn it apart in part because
30:14
Speaker 2: some of the voices that purport to be on the
30:17
Speaker 2: right have used it as an opportunity to elevate themselves.
30:23
Speaker 2: I am very fortunate in my own career. to have
30:27
Speaker 2: gotten where I've had to do without ever doing any
30:30
Speaker 2: of that crap. You can say, well, would you be
30:33
Speaker 2: willing to do it? It's a hypothetical question. I don't
30:36
Speaker 2: think I would be willing to do it. But the
30:37
Speaker 2: fact of the matter is, is that by doing the
30:39
Speaker 2: opposite and just saying what I think for better or worse,
30:44
Speaker 2: it's really worked for me. And it worked for Rush.
30:47
Speaker 2: You know, I filled in for him for 17 years.
30:50
Speaker 2: People ask me all the time, what was it like
30:51
Speaker 2: working for him? I was never there. He's on vacation.
30:56
Speaker 2: It's like when I was doing my radio show. Do
30:57
Speaker 2: you think I was like, let's imagine Jason was working
31:00
Speaker 2: for us five years ago. I'm doing the radio show.
31:02
Speaker 2: I'm on vacation. Do you think I'm going to be
31:03
Speaker 2: in the studio? Welcome to come in? I'm going somewhere else.
31:07
Speaker 2: But I spoke with him and I dealt with his
31:10
Speaker 2: staff all the time. And he had an incredibly loyal staff.
31:14
Speaker 2: And the thing that just resonated constantly is Rush never,
31:19
Speaker 2: ever took a position that he didn't believe in. And
31:23
Speaker 2: I think he had credibility with the audience for that reason.
31:27
Speaker 2: And I think some of this new breed of commentators
31:29
Speaker 2: that are looking for short-term clicks and how many downloads
31:32
Speaker 2: do you have this week, they're trying a different approach.
31:36
Speaker 2: Maybe it works long-term. My own experience as somebody who
31:40
Speaker 2: has been doing this now for 40 years is that
31:45
Speaker 2: being true to yourself and being honest with the audience
31:47
Speaker 2: long run will give you a bigger payoff. This is
31:51
Speaker 2: the Mark Belling Podcast. This is the Mark Belling Podcast.
31:58
Speaker 2: There is a really interesting and maybe very important story
32:06
Speaker 2: out there. A guy, his position has been described as
32:12
Speaker 2: a senior researcher for Anthropic. He has gotten global attention.
32:21
Speaker 2: for resigning his position with Anthropic. Anthropic is the still private,
32:25
Speaker 2: soon to go public, probably so far dominant firm in
32:30
Speaker 2: artificial intelligence. He says, human civilization may be wiped out
32:43
Speaker 2: by 2030 because of A.I. We're already in 2026. Now
32:53
Speaker 2: on its face, this sounds like just more idiotic alarmism.
32:59
Speaker 2: More like the Al Gore climate promises of 25 years ago,
33:03
Speaker 2: none of which have come to happen. Where I live
33:07
Speaker 2: in Florida is supposed to not be there right now.
33:09
Speaker 2: It's supposed to be part of the ocean. All of that.
33:15
Speaker 2: The guy's name is Evan Hubinger, he's one of them.
33:19
Speaker 2: The other one is Jacob Coxon. And I want to
33:22
Speaker 2: quote from a lengthy report here on Forbes. Evan Hubinger,
33:29
Speaker 2: the alignment science lead at Anthropic, wrote on X that
33:32
Speaker 2: he and his colleagues do earnestly believe that AI could
33:34
Speaker 2: kill all humans and pegged his own estimate at more
33:37
Speaker 2: than 10% in the next decade. Hubinger said the company
33:41
Speaker 2: was trying its best but does not yet have a
33:43
Speaker 2: plan to solve the issue of alignment for superintelligence. and
33:47
Speaker 2: is not clearly on track to do so. Hubinger's post
33:51
Speaker 2: responded to an ex-thread by another Anthropic researcher, Jacob Coxon,
33:56
Speaker 2: who announced he is resigning from the company over AI
33:59
Speaker 2: safety concerns. Coxon, who said he has worked on pre-training
34:03
Speaker 2: research at OpenAI and Anthropic, warned that the rival companies
34:08
Speaker 2: were not acting responsibly by, quote, racing straight to self-improving
34:14
Speaker 2: superintelligence and gambling with our lives. The departing researcher said
34:19
Speaker 2: people building AI believe it could, quote, kill us all
34:23
Speaker 2: by the end of the decade, and that this was
34:25
Speaker 2: not a marketing stunt. In a post following his warning, Hubinger,
34:29
Speaker 2: that's the other guy, cited Anthropic's latest risk report and
34:33
Speaker 2: said the threat posed by present models is low. What
34:36
Speaker 2: I am worried about is superintelligence rising from recursive self-improvement.
34:42
Speaker 2: And we have said it's happening faster than we thought. Now,
34:46
Speaker 2: let me jump in. What I understand about AI is
34:54
Speaker 2: that AI has the ability to learn as it goes.
34:58
Speaker 2: That AI, when applied in any area, it does something.
35:04
Speaker 2: First of all, AI starts with all of the knowledge
35:06
Speaker 2: that's imported into AI. But then as AI reacts, it
35:12
Speaker 2: isn't limited by human ability to forget things or not
35:18
Speaker 2: pick up on things. that the AI models pick up
35:21
Speaker 2: and notice all sorts of things, so in other words,
35:25
Speaker 2: get smarter and smarter and smarter and more and more powerful.
35:29
Speaker 2: The fear is, I mean, it's just the old science
35:32
Speaker 2: fiction stuff coming true, that what happens if the AI
35:36
Speaker 2: model starts doing things that humans can't overrun? To me,
35:43
Speaker 2: the greater threat, and it's not talked about by these researchers,
35:47
Speaker 2: is the use of AI technology. to deliberately cause harm.
35:54
Speaker 2: In other words, let's imagine some brilliant Muslim terrorists get
35:58
Speaker 2: their hands on an AI model and tell it to
36:02
Speaker 2: wipe out the West, shut off all the water in
36:06
Speaker 2: all of the water systems, shut off all the electricity,
36:10
Speaker 2: disable all the 911 emergency systems. To me, that's the
36:17
Speaker 2: great fear and the great threat that a rogue artificial
36:21
Speaker 2: intelligence has. There are members of Congress now, Democrats and Republicans,
36:26
Speaker 2: who responded to these latest warnings saying that we need
36:28
Speaker 2: to put it, everybody uses the term guardrails on AI. Well,
36:33
Speaker 2: of course I agree with that. I'm the guy that's
36:35
Speaker 2: been forever pointing out that we never ever react to
36:38
Speaker 2: a threat until it's already here, even though it's obvious
36:41
Speaker 2: it's coming. To me, it's obvious that there are going
36:46
Speaker 2: to be drones used in a mass terror attack in
36:49
Speaker 2: the United States. It's obvious that that's going to occur
36:51
Speaker 2: at some point. When you can see what our military
36:53
Speaker 2: drones are able to do right now, dropping pretty powerful bombs,
36:59
Speaker 2: it's going to happen. And I haven't seen us do
37:01
Speaker 2: a damn thing to control drones. I think that drones
37:05
Speaker 2: have the far greater potential for harm than good without
37:09
Speaker 2: at least some kind of structure in place to regulate anything.
37:13
Speaker 2: who is doing what with them. Anyway, that's just one
37:17
Speaker 2: example of how we don't ever address any problems until
37:21
Speaker 2: the thing is already here. And often then it is
37:23
Speaker 2: too late. Well, with AI, what we may be muttering
37:29
Speaker 2: about this, the advancement of AI is moving much faster
37:34
Speaker 2: than any kind of restrictions that we're putting in place.
37:36
Speaker 2: But here's the scariest thing. AI is global. We can
37:41
Speaker 2: put in place all the restrictions that we want here
37:43
Speaker 2: in the United States of America. We can't stop the
37:47
Speaker 2: Chinese from doing what they want. Fauci and some dink
37:56
Speaker 2: from North Carolina laundered American grant money into the lab
38:00
Speaker 2: in Wuhan to start to invent a virus that they
38:03
Speaker 2: were working on, which managed to get out of the lab.
38:07
Speaker 2: Think how quickly and easily an AI program could do
38:09
Speaker 2: all of that. and set in motion some protocol to
38:13
Speaker 2: override what humans are doing and have it get out
38:17
Speaker 2: of the lab. It's clearly scary stuff. As I was
38:24
Speaker 2: reading this story yesterday, I swear to you, I'm not
38:28
Speaker 2: making this up. My brain said to myself, I wonder
38:33
Speaker 2: what Elon thinks about this. I think Elon Musk is
38:38
Speaker 2: the smartest person on the planet. I think he's our
38:42
Speaker 2: heiress Thomas Edison. He's obviously weird, but he's just an
38:48
Speaker 2: unbelievably brilliant guy who not only can think outside the box,
38:52
Speaker 2: has an incredible ability to then deliver and do those
38:56
Speaker 2: things outside the box that he conceives of. And Musk
38:59
Speaker 2: is throwing cold water on all of this. He says
39:03
Speaker 2: it's a publicity stunt by these guys to get attention
39:07
Speaker 2: for themselves. Let's start with this. I think that certainly
39:11
Speaker 2: is what it is. We have certainly known that going
39:14
Speaker 2: back to Al Gore and every other, the world is
39:17
Speaker 2: coming to an end person. You can get a lot
39:19
Speaker 2: of attention by overstating the threat of anything. Let me
39:26
Speaker 2: quote from a story here. on Musk's response to this.
39:32
Speaker 2: Elon Musk questioned statements made by an ex-anthropic researcher who
39:35
Speaker 2: raised alarm about the dangers posed by AI to humans
39:39
Speaker 2: after quitting the company as the billionaire boosted unsubstantiated claims
39:44
Speaker 2: of the move being a conspiracy or public relations stunt
39:47
Speaker 2: despite other AI researchers flagging similar concerns. Former Anthopic researcher
39:52
Speaker 2: Jacob Coxon said, When someone pointed out that the combined
39:58
Speaker 2: view count of Coxon's posts had crossed 120 million, Musk
40:02
Speaker 2: claimed he doesn't think somebody like this has ever happened
40:05
Speaker 2: for a post for a new account with almost no
40:09
Speaker 2: prior activity. In other words, he's saying, what a surprise
40:12
Speaker 2: that this guy that nobody's ever paid attention to before,
40:14
Speaker 2: nobody ever makes his post, and the next thing you know,
40:17
Speaker 2: 120 million people are viewing it because of reposts and
40:21
Speaker 2: so on. When Epic CEO and billionaire Tim Sweeney claimed
40:24
Speaker 2: that the posts and reactions appear choreographed, Musk chimed in
40:28
Speaker 2: again claiming, without any evidence, that this was the spark
40:31
Speaker 2: that followed groundwork for a PSYOP, for lack of a
40:35
Speaker 2: better term, presumably against AI. A few other figures echoed
40:41
Speaker 2: Musk's criticism about the post and cast doubt about Cox's intent,
40:44
Speaker 2: including billionaire Bill Ackman, who wrote, interesting, as he reassured
40:48
Speaker 2: a post claiming that the post appeared to be the
40:51
Speaker 2: start of a very sophisticated and well-funded PR operation to
40:55
Speaker 2: get support for Democrats to regulate AI into oblivion. I
40:59
Speaker 2: think it's possible that both are true. I think that
41:02
Speaker 2: AI can clearly pose some sort of a threat. But
41:05
Speaker 2: when you see these I think, almost obviously overstatements of
41:09
Speaker 2: the threat, and they occur in the middle of an
41:12
Speaker 2: election year. You have to wonder whether or not it
41:17
Speaker 2: is choreographed. And for people to say it's far-fetched that
41:20
Speaker 2: it would be choreographed, we've got some history here. They
41:24
Speaker 2: have the ability to create a narrative in an election
41:26
Speaker 2: year that just goes wild, like Trump's colluding with the Russians.
41:32
Speaker 2: Should we go on and on and on about the
41:34
Speaker 2: number of stories that have been put out and get
41:37
Speaker 2: incredible circulation with everybody ready to jump on them? Guy
41:41
Speaker 2: nobody ever heard of, quits Anthropic. Makes these posts. I mean,
41:46
Speaker 2: I'm on X. Everybody and his brother's on X. How
41:49
Speaker 2: does this guy's post get to 120 million in just
41:52
Speaker 2: a few days? Clearly, there had to be a number
41:54
Speaker 2: of people ready to repost that thing and get that
41:57
Speaker 2: out there. I think the likelihood is, AI, like all
42:04
Speaker 2: tech and all weaponry and all warfare in our advanced world,
42:11
Speaker 2: is increasingly very, very dangerous. But I also think that
42:21
Speaker 2: to say that it is an automatic guarantor of gloom
42:24
Speaker 2: and doom implies that there aren't also going to be
42:29
Speaker 2: tech applications competing at the same time to prevent this
42:33
Speaker 2: As an example, hacking, tapping into computer systems and so on.
42:40
Speaker 2: It's just an enormous problem in our society, but there
42:42
Speaker 2: are also huge companies that do nothing but try to
42:46
Speaker 2: stymie that. The internet security industry is also huge. I mean,
42:53
Speaker 2: Norton wouldn't exist, I think, anymore had they not bought LifeLock.
42:57
Speaker 2: And the only reason people buy LifeLock is to stop
42:59
Speaker 2: people from stealing their credit card numbers and stealing their
43:02
Speaker 2: account numbers and going out and swiping their identity. I
43:07
Speaker 2: keep pointing out that I use LifeLock, even though LifeLock
43:10
Speaker 2: refuses to advertise on this podcast. Here I am endorsing them.
43:13
Speaker 2: And I mean, if anybody's a public figure, it's me
43:16
Speaker 2: and nobody's ever successfully been able to hack away into
43:20
Speaker 2: my stuff. And I mean, telling you any single time, anything,
43:23
Speaker 2: if there's a, if I do a credit app legitimately
43:26
Speaker 2: for anything or anything, Norton is on top of it
43:30
Speaker 2: and alerting me instantaneously. I know a lot of people
43:33
Speaker 2: have had their credit card stolen. I mean, the instant
43:35
Speaker 2: somebody tries to use that card, if they're a LifeLock customer,
43:38
Speaker 2: they're notified immediately. And I would think that the same
43:41
Speaker 2: sort of thing is going to be in place with
43:42
Speaker 2: regard to AI. So I would suggest that people, A,
43:47
Speaker 2: be very worried about the negative potential for harm from
43:50
Speaker 2: this incredible new technology, but also be very, very suspicious
43:55
Speaker 2: of of people who make wild statements because they're either
44:00
Speaker 2: selling a point of view or selling a book or
44:02
Speaker 2: selling something. Al Gore, the perfect example of this. The
44:09
Speaker 2: guy became a borderline billionaire by making a bunch of
44:14
Speaker 2: claims about climate change, almost all of which have been
44:17
Speaker 2: since debunked. And aside from his base argument that there
44:21
Speaker 2: was an increase in global temperature that was going on,
44:25
Speaker 2: all of the things that he said would occur by now,
44:27
Speaker 2: none of them have happened. None of them. But it
44:31
Speaker 2: hasn't shut him up at all. I don't even know
44:37
Speaker 2: if it's possible to change the topic as violently as
44:45
Speaker 2: I'm changing it here. The charcoal grills are closing. You
44:50
Speaker 2: don't know about the charcoal grills, do you? It's a
44:54
Speaker 2: chain of restaurants. It's not a big chain, but they've
44:57
Speaker 2: been around. I think the Last Chancery, which was another chain,
45:04
Speaker 2: closed not long ago. The Charcoal Grill, it was like
45:08
Speaker 2: a Ponderosa, sort of. I would say it was maybe
45:11
Speaker 2: a little bit more upscale than a Ponderosa, but certainly
45:14
Speaker 2: below like a Steakhouse. The first one that I ever
45:18
Speaker 2: went to was in Racine. There were a couple of
45:20
Speaker 2: them in Racine. They were up to like five locations now.
45:23
Speaker 2: One of them was in West Bend. I think a
45:24
Speaker 2: couple in the southern portion of Milwaukee County and so on.
45:28
Speaker 2: And I mean, I went to the one in Racine
45:31
Speaker 2: a number of times back in the 90s, mostly because
45:34
Speaker 2: I was dating a woman from down there and it
45:36
Speaker 2: was very close to her house. And the place is
45:39
Speaker 2: always packed. It was always packed. The formula that they
45:42
Speaker 2: had just were, I've not been at a Capitol Grill
45:44
Speaker 2: in 30 years. Excuse me, not in a charcoal grill.
45:47
Speaker 2: Capitol Grill is a different chain. Not in a charcoal
45:49
Speaker 2: grill in 30 years. The company just made an announcement,
45:53
Speaker 2: put up a sign, posting on Facebook and a sign
45:55
Speaker 2: in front of all the restaurants that all of them
45:57
Speaker 2: are closed. Effective right now, it sounds like they're going
46:00
Speaker 2: out of business. I'm guessing that all of the pressures
46:05
Speaker 2: that are going on in that segment of the restaurant business,
46:08
Speaker 2: prices are not low enough to be considered discount, and
46:12
Speaker 2: the quality isn't high enough to be fine dining. This
46:15
Speaker 2: is where in this economy, with DoorDash and everything else,
46:18
Speaker 2: those kinds of businesses are just being squeezed out it's
46:22
Speaker 2: too bad because as i say there was just a
46:25
Speaker 2: niche associated with him and if you never went there
46:28
Speaker 2: it's hard to describe what made him special because i
46:31
Speaker 2: went in there it didn't seem like there were anything
46:32
Speaker 2: special a little other than for the longest time they
46:36
Speaker 2: clearly build a niche in the market got another story
46:40
Speaker 2: for you on the podcast one of the podcasts we
46:45
Speaker 2: released earlier in the week i went on at some
46:47
Speaker 2: length about the growth in the economy in jobs that
46:54
Speaker 2: are essentially targeted to non-college graduates. And I've been on
46:59
Speaker 2: this theme for some time that I think that there
47:01
Speaker 2: is a long-term trend in our economy, that there is
47:04
Speaker 2: a drastic shortage of people either qualified to or willing
47:08
Speaker 2: to work in semi-skilled areas of the economy. And as
47:13
Speaker 2: a result, the people who go into those fields are
47:15
Speaker 2: going to make a fortune and are going to be
47:19
Speaker 2: far more financially well off. than people with college degrees
47:24
Speaker 2: going into fields in which they're already overstaffed, where there's
47:29
Speaker 2: clearly a shortage of jobs and technology is moving to
47:33
Speaker 2: eliminate some of them. I got a fair amount of
47:36
Speaker 2: reaction to that segment. I want to share just one
47:38
Speaker 2: of them because he says things here that I'll admit
47:41
Speaker 2: I frankly didn't know. Mark, enjoy your podcast. I'm a
47:44
Speaker 2: truck driver and listen to your podcasts overnight. You mentioned
47:48
Speaker 2: the trades versus college in your last podcast. As a trucker,
47:53
Speaker 2: I have a schedule that pays well over six figures,
47:57
Speaker 2: and my industry is painfully in need of additional workers.
48:01
Speaker 2: A CDL, that's a commercial license, a CDL goes really
48:06
Speaker 2: far right now, and with little or no out-of-pocket costs,
48:11
Speaker 2: my company has a driver training program, so they will
48:15
Speaker 2: help pay for a new driver to get a CDL.
48:19
Speaker 2: I am not sure how many people are aware of
48:21
Speaker 2: industries like these. Wages, benefits, and other bonuses added together,
48:26
Speaker 2: most of us, at least in my line of trucking,
48:29
Speaker 2: are well over 150K a year. Now, he doesn't indicate
48:35
Speaker 2: if he's union. I'm suspecting not. There aren't many that
48:38
Speaker 2: are anymore. If he's his own owner-operator or if he's
48:41
Speaker 2: working for another company. One of the big companies, he
48:44
Speaker 2: refers specifically to his line of trucking. There may be
48:47
Speaker 2: a specialization of what it is that he does. He
48:49
Speaker 2: probably drives a big rig or something, or maybe he's
48:52
Speaker 2: willing to accept. And I don't know if he's describing
48:55
Speaker 2: himself as being a long-haul driver, the ones that go
48:57
Speaker 2: across the country, or simply driving. I don't know any
48:59
Speaker 2: of that. But he's saying this is the amount of
49:02
Speaker 2: money that he, I get no sense, he signs his name,
49:04
Speaker 2: I won't read it, that he's not telling the truth
49:07
Speaker 2: on this. He says, counting his bonuses and benefits, he
49:12
Speaker 2: can get to $ 150, 000 a year. My mom always tells
49:13
Speaker 2: me first. that I am not just a trucker and
49:23
Speaker 2: my job is important, but it beats having to take
49:26
Speaker 2: out student loans for four years and ending in a
49:28
Speaker 2: career that may not even pay a quarter of what
49:31
Speaker 2: new drivers start at. He's referring to here, he's probably
49:37
Speaker 2: has said a few times, I'm just a trucker. And
49:39
Speaker 2: it's whether you're not just a trucker. Your job is important. Well,
49:43
Speaker 2: we've looked down our noses at people who do jobs
49:45
Speaker 2: like trucking. But whether you're just a trucker or not,
49:49
Speaker 2: one of the ways that we measure what's going on
49:51
Speaker 2: in our life is how much money you're making. And
49:54
Speaker 2: in an economy that is radically changing, I think we
49:58
Speaker 2: are decades away from not having a need for the
50:03
Speaker 2: transportation of goods. I mean, AI is going to do
50:07
Speaker 2: a better job of replacing some of the jobs, for example,
50:10
Speaker 2: in the big freighter ships that go across the ocean.
50:13
Speaker 2: There's talk of having driverless trucks with the new technology
50:17
Speaker 2: that's in place. I think that we are a long
50:21
Speaker 2: way away from that. It's one thing to have these
50:25
Speaker 2: robo-taxis that are going around at 25 miles an hour
50:27
Speaker 2: operating off of cameras. To put some giant truck hauling
50:33
Speaker 2: 40,000 pounds and more on a freeway and trying to
50:37
Speaker 2: do it with a camera up there and then figuring
50:39
Speaker 2: out where to stop and how to know when to
50:41
Speaker 2: fuel itself. We're a long way away from that. Same
50:45
Speaker 2: thing with railroads. This is just the one field here.
50:49
Speaker 2: The point that he's making is, and again, I'm surprised
50:51
Speaker 2: the numbers are that high. I know a lot of
50:53
Speaker 2: truckers don't make that much, but he does sort of
50:55
Speaker 2: say in my line of trucking without laying out exactly
50:58
Speaker 2: what it is. But take this now toward every, and
51:03
Speaker 2: I would describe trucking as a semi-skilled or skilled field.
51:07
Speaker 2: In other words, but the skill is one that it's
51:11
Speaker 2: that five years of college to learn. You go to
51:13
Speaker 2: a truck driving school. The other thing that I want
51:16
Speaker 2: to add on this, one of the things that, I mean,
51:21
Speaker 2: had I not succeeded in working in radio, I suppose
51:24
Speaker 2: I could have driven a truck. Parts of it seemed attractive.
51:28
Speaker 2: I mean, you got to sit down, sit on your
51:30
Speaker 2: ass all day while you were driving a Rona. The
51:32
Speaker 2: other hand, I get frustrated in traffic, and I can't
51:36
Speaker 2: even imagine being a trucker, being on these clogged freeways
51:39
Speaker 2: and interstates out there all the time. And then when
51:41
Speaker 2: they have to drive into a town with all these
51:43
Speaker 2: idiots cutting them off and doing this, that, or the other,
51:45
Speaker 2: they probably drive me nuts to do that. Would I
51:47
Speaker 2: have been able to handle the boredom? It probably wasn't
51:51
Speaker 2: for me, but I just think there's a zillion other
51:54
Speaker 2: jobs where the working conditions were worse than that. One
52:01
Speaker 2: of the things that prevents people from going into that
52:04
Speaker 2: field This is me now. I'm not the letter writer.
52:08
Speaker 2: They drug test you. A trucking company can't have a
52:12
Speaker 2: pothead driving a truck. They don't want a pothead crashing
52:16
Speaker 2: in and killing their load. And secondly, their insurance carrier
52:19
Speaker 2: probably doesn't even cover them. I know that almost every
52:24
Speaker 2: trucking company has an aggressive drug testing program. And the
52:27
Speaker 2: drug testing program doesn't mean, okay, I'll smoke my pot
52:30
Speaker 2: and three hours later I get in the truck. It
52:31
Speaker 2: means if you've got anything in your system, you're done. Well,
52:36
Speaker 2: in a society in which more and more and more
52:38
Speaker 2: people are on one form of drug or another, that
52:42
Speaker 2: aces out numerous people who might want to go into
52:44
Speaker 2: this field. And there are some people that aren't willing
52:48
Speaker 2: to make the sacrifice of stop using drugs, including the
52:52
Speaker 2: recreational stuff like cannabis, just to get a job that
52:56
Speaker 2: will pay them five times more than they're getting by
52:59
Speaker 2: doing virtually the same thing on a smaller scale, which
53:02
Speaker 2: is DoorDash. What really is the difference between a trucker
53:05
Speaker 2: and DoorDash? Other than the truckers make a fortune, the
53:09
Speaker 2: DoorDashers are driving tiny little cars that are all beaten up,
53:11
Speaker 2: or the truckers are driving these big monstrous behemoths. They're
53:14
Speaker 2: doing the same kind of thing. What would you rather do,
53:17
Speaker 2: drive a truck long haul or be a DoorDash driver?
53:20
Speaker 2: I think I'd rather drive the truck long haul. I mean,
53:23
Speaker 2: I'd rather do my drop off at some big yard
53:25
Speaker 2: where they got the people that do the offloading and
53:27
Speaker 2: all of that stuff than walking up to somebody's house
53:30
Speaker 2: where there might be some druggie that's out there going
53:31
Speaker 2: to shoot me in the head, right? Or these killer
53:35
Speaker 2: protective dogs they all have. Do you want to drop
53:38
Speaker 2: off a bag of food at somebody when they got
53:40
Speaker 2: three pit bulls barking at you at the door? Rough
53:44
Speaker 2: way to make a living. Let me finish up his letter.
53:52
Speaker 2: I think that college has a value, but those in
53:55
Speaker 2: the trades are killing it. And I am example of
53:58
Speaker 2: just that. Just wanted to share my own story with you.
54:01
Speaker 2: Keep up the good work and thanks for helping me
54:03
Speaker 2: pass time over my night shift. And I don't like
54:07
Speaker 2: to read people's names here, even though I think I'd
54:10
Speaker 2: probably be happier as a clam. I just don't like
54:12
Speaker 2: to do it. And I don't know why I just,
54:15
Speaker 2: there's always the chance somebody could put somebody else's name
54:17
Speaker 2: on there, but why somebody would put in, There's nothing
54:20
Speaker 2: embarrassing in this. I just don't like to do it.
54:22
Speaker 2: His first name, though, is Kent. Now, you just add
54:25
Speaker 2: in about 90 other fields like this, where you have
54:30
Speaker 2: to know how to do a specific skill, but the
54:32
Speaker 2: skill is trainable. Some of it requires lots of training,
54:35
Speaker 2: like electricity. Some requires a decent amount, like plumbing and
54:39
Speaker 2: plumbing contracting. But others of it require a matter of months,
54:45
Speaker 2: which would be, I would say, long-haul truck driver. and
54:49
Speaker 2: driving the medium-sized trucks even less. In other words, they
54:53
Speaker 2: are obtainable skills. It's actual work, but it's not the
54:59
Speaker 2: worst work in the world. And there is a long-term
55:04
Speaker 2: shortage in the United States of people that do this work.
55:07
Speaker 2: At the same time, we see a society in which
55:10
Speaker 2: numerous people claim that they are underemployed. Now this story.
55:19
Speaker 2: I'm doing the podcast on Thursday. The second game of
55:22
Speaker 2: the NFL season is tonight, Thursday. The 49ers and the
55:25
Speaker 2: Rams are playing in Sydney, Australia. I found this piece
55:30
Speaker 2: on The Athletic, which is owned by The New York Times.
55:32
Speaker 2: The two teams have both come up with their own
55:36
Speaker 2: plans on how to approach the trip. I found this interesting.
55:43
Speaker 2: It's basically, do you go there way in advance of
55:46
Speaker 2: the game so your bodies can acclimate? an almost 12-hour
55:50
Speaker 2: time difference. It's a little bit less than 12 hours.
55:53
Speaker 2: So the game that's tonight will be played in, I
55:56
Speaker 2: think it starts late morning or noon in Sydney. What
56:02
Speaker 2: would it be? Yeah, it'll be a daytime game in Sydney.
56:07
Speaker 2: I think 10 hours is in my head. That might
56:10
Speaker 2: be off, but it's about 10 hours earlier. Do you know, Jason? Yeah,
56:16
Speaker 2: it's Yeah, just ask Google what time is it right
56:19
Speaker 2: now in Sydney. It should tell you. 3.08 a.m., and
56:30
Speaker 2: I'm doing this, just so people know, I'm doing the podcast.
56:33
Speaker 2: We're recording at 12.08 in the afternoon, so nine hours earlier.
56:37
Speaker 2: So the timing works. It just means that it's a
56:40
Speaker 2: daytime game there. I'm playing at night. But anyway, the
56:42
Speaker 2: question that these teams have to decide is, Should we
56:45
Speaker 2: go there way in advance so the team's body clocks,
56:48
Speaker 2: you know, acclimate to this? Or do you just go
56:52
Speaker 2: right on over and get into it rather than spending
56:55
Speaker 2: like a week of having jet lag? The thing that's
57:02
Speaker 2: interesting about the story is the two teams took an
57:04
Speaker 2: opposite approach. Quoting, San Francisco consulted its trusted experts, sleep scientists,
57:10
Speaker 2: and came up with what you'd expect. They traveled to
57:13
Speaker 2: Australia early to get used to the routine, play the game.
57:16
Speaker 2: The Niners landed down under a week ago. But the Rams,
57:21
Speaker 2: they consulted their travel trusted experts and sleep scientists and
57:24
Speaker 2: came up with the opposite plan. The Rams said travel
57:28
Speaker 2: to Australia as late as possible, spend a minimum amount
57:31
Speaker 2: of time there, play the game, get on a jet
57:34
Speaker 2: two hours after the final whistle, and come home. The
57:37
Speaker 2: Rams landed only Tuesday. I've never been to Australia. I
57:44
Speaker 2: was supposed to go to Australia. I don't even know
57:46
Speaker 2: if Jason knows this. You know about my stroke, don't you?
57:50
Speaker 3: Yes.
57:50
Speaker 2: I had a stroke on the air. It was four
57:53
Speaker 2: days before our cruise that year was to be Australia
57:58
Speaker 2: and New Zealand, meaning we were going to fly all
58:02
Speaker 2: the way to Australia for the flight. Four days before this,
58:07
Speaker 2: I have a stroke on the ear. Again, my stroke
58:09
Speaker 2: occurred at the best part of the brain that you
58:11
Speaker 2: could have a stroke, which is why I wasn't debilitated
58:13
Speaker 2: or ruined like so many people. But second, can you
58:15
Speaker 2: imagine if I would have had that thing four days
58:17
Speaker 2: later when I'm over the Pacific? I'd be dead. Or
58:21
Speaker 2: when I'm in Australia or on the boat, I would
58:24
Speaker 2: have been in the hospital in Australia for two weeks.
58:27
Speaker 2: But I have certainly been to Europe a number of times.
58:30
Speaker 2: And when we did our cruise, I have a formula
58:34
Speaker 2: for avoiding the jet lag when you're going west to east,
58:38
Speaker 2: which would be America to Europe. And nobody wanted to,
58:40
Speaker 2: everybody on the crew, they all wanted to ignore this.
58:42
Speaker 2: So they're all miserable for the whole trip. And that is,
58:47
Speaker 2: you know, you leave in late afternoon or night, you
58:49
Speaker 2: get over there and it's morning. Don't go to bed.
58:53
Speaker 2: You're dead tired. It's 10 o'clock in the morning. The
58:55
Speaker 2: worst thing that you can do is go to bed.
58:56
Speaker 2: You stick it out, refuse to allow yourself to sleep,
58:59
Speaker 2: fight it out, fight it out, fight it out, continue
59:01
Speaker 2: your routine, and then try to make it to like
59:04
Speaker 2: eight o'clock at night. You are then dead tired. You're
59:07
Speaker 2: going to get like a 10 or 11 hour sleep.
59:09
Speaker 2: Knocks it off. of you. Now it's seven o'clock in
59:11
Speaker 2: the morning and you're there. It worked for me each time.
59:13
Speaker 2: And I had all these people say, no, no, no,
59:15
Speaker 2: listen to your body. If you're tired, you need to
59:17
Speaker 2: go to sleep. I have tried with regard to the
59:20
Speaker 2: goofy schedule that I have now on which on podcast
59:22
Speaker 2: days and Sundays, I get up really early. And on
59:24
Speaker 2: the other days I sort of sleep in. I've just
59:26
Speaker 2: tried to force myself into this, into this thing of
59:30
Speaker 2: force yourself to get really tired in time that you
59:32
Speaker 2: need to go to bed if it's an off time.
59:34
Speaker 2: But I don't know about the going the other way,
59:37
Speaker 2: going backwards, because I've never done it. The farthest west
59:41
Speaker 2: I've ever been was Hawaii and Tahiti because I didn't
59:44
Speaker 2: make that Australian cruise. But anyway, I know there's a
59:51
Speaker 2: difference of opinion in horse racing with regard to this.
59:54
Speaker 2: When people ship horses in from Europe, into the United States.
59:57
Speaker 2: And our group has horses in Europe. Sometimes we brought
1:00:00
Speaker 2: them to the United States. Should you bring them over
1:00:03
Speaker 2: right on top of the race? There has to be
1:00:05
Speaker 2: a brief time because they have to do 48 hours
1:00:07
Speaker 2: of quarantine. So you can't bring them in and race
1:00:09
Speaker 2: them the same day. So it's 48 hours is the
1:00:11
Speaker 2: minimum because they have to quarantine. But some people will
1:00:14
Speaker 2: bring the horse in a week and a half earlier
1:00:16
Speaker 2: so that the horse's body can acclimate. And others believe
1:00:19
Speaker 2: strongly bring them over right on top of the race.
1:00:22
Speaker 2: Before they even begin the process of acclimation, they're still sharpened.
1:00:28
Speaker 2: Run them then. I just, on the podcast we did yesterday,
1:00:36
Speaker 2: I said I didn't go to Tuesday night's Brewer game.
1:00:39
Speaker 2: The Brewers were down 3-1 with two outs in the
1:00:41
Speaker 2: bottom of the ninth inning. Would I have left? And
1:00:43
Speaker 2: I said, I don't think I would have, but there's
1:00:45
Speaker 2: no way of saying that for sure. I was at
1:00:47
Speaker 2: last night's game. The Brewers were up 8-1 after eight innings,
1:00:50
Speaker 2: and I left. I was walking out of the stadium
1:00:53
Speaker 2: right when Crowe, that's what I call Pete Crowe Armstrong.
1:00:55
Speaker 2: You know, first of all, you can't heckle a guy
1:00:57
Speaker 2: that's got a hyphenated last name. Hey, Crowe Armstrong, that just,
1:01:01
Speaker 2: it takes too long, right? It's like when people would
1:01:03
Speaker 2: heckle Giannis. They'd say Giannis because they couldn't, you can't
1:01:07
Speaker 2: do any kind of heckling that said Adedokumpo, right? So
1:01:11
Speaker 2: I call him Crowe. I mean, that's part of his name,
1:01:14
Speaker 2: and I'd rather call him. It's either going to be
1:01:17
Speaker 2: Crow or Armstrong, right? Well, Crow just sounds better when
1:01:20
Speaker 2: you're heckling a guy than Armstrong, so I call him Crow.
1:01:23
Speaker 2: I'll say this about the guy. I think he is
1:01:25
Speaker 2: an incredibly talented player. He reminds me baseball-wise of Reggie Miller.
1:01:31
Speaker 2: He's just kind of like that. He's also a total dink.
1:01:35
Speaker 2: which Reggie Miller had a streak of as well. And
1:01:38
Speaker 2: as great as he is, he has a tendency to
1:01:40
Speaker 2: do really stupid things. I mean, he had a couple
1:01:42
Speaker 2: of terrible errors early in the season, but he's a
1:01:45
Speaker 2: phenomenal talent. And he gets into players' heads. And, you know,
1:01:50
Speaker 2: the pitcher for the Brewers last night was Logan Henderson.
1:01:52
Speaker 2: He was sailing along with a perfect game. Crowe came
1:01:55
Speaker 2: up to face him in the fourth inning. He got
1:01:57
Speaker 2: on base. He fought off like four foul balls in
1:01:59
Speaker 2: a row, which I hear he does all the time.
1:02:01
Speaker 2: Got in first, and then Henderson... The Brewers are up 7-0.
1:02:04
Speaker 2: Henderson keeps throwing to first. Even if Crow steals second,
1:02:08
Speaker 2: they're stopped. It screwed up his whole inning. He lost
1:02:12
Speaker 2: his concentration. He got into his inning. And okay, here
1:02:15
Speaker 2: comes the ninth inning. Poor Brandon Sprote, who just got
1:02:18
Speaker 2: called back up, went to the eighth inning clean. Crow
1:02:21
Speaker 2: leads off the ninth inning. You got a seven-run lead.
1:02:23
Speaker 2: He falls off a zillion balls and ends up working
1:02:26
Speaker 2: a walk and gets the first base. And Sprote fell apart.
1:02:29
Speaker 2: So he just has an ability to get into players' heads.
1:02:34
Speaker 2: And he's into my head, but I mean, it's just
1:02:35
Speaker 2: perfect for a rivalry. You've got to have a villain
1:02:38
Speaker 2: on the other team that you don't like. Plus, he's
1:02:40
Speaker 2: so unbelievably ugly. And I think the Brewers deliberately use
1:02:44
Speaker 2: an ugly picture of him on the scoreboard. He looks
1:02:46
Speaker 2: like some sort of E.T.-like freak up there. Anyway, Sprook
1:02:51
Speaker 2: can't get anybody out. He just walks everybody. And I got...
1:02:56
Speaker 2: it's really hard usually to get out of the parking
1:02:57
Speaker 2: lot with a Brewer-Cub game, and everybody, particularly the Cub fans,
1:03:01
Speaker 2: were leaving early after the eighth inning. I mean, there
1:03:04
Speaker 2: were very few Cub fans left for what would have
1:03:06
Speaker 2: been their greatest comeback rally probably in, well, the longest time.
1:03:13
Speaker 2: I'm already almost home, and I said, I better check
1:03:16
Speaker 2: the score just in case. And it was 8-2, and
1:03:19
Speaker 2: they had the bases loaded. There was only one out,
1:03:21
Speaker 2: and I saw on my phone that Murphy was coming
1:03:22
Speaker 2: out of the dugout to go and get Sproat, who's,
1:03:27
Speaker 2: I think, clearly done for the season. This was his
1:03:29
Speaker 2: last chance. They're going to try to resurrect him next year,
1:03:32
Speaker 2: but Abner came in, probably rushed out of the bullpen
1:03:36
Speaker 2: and managed to get out of that. I think the
1:03:38
Speaker 2: guy that made the last out was one hitter before Crow, right?
1:03:42
Speaker 2: I think so. And we'd gotten to him, would not
1:03:45
Speaker 2: have won. So the Brewers ended up with a sweep.
1:03:47
Speaker 2: They've got the division pretty much singed. Every Brewer fan
1:03:51
Speaker 2: is still worried about whether or not the team has
1:03:54
Speaker 2: enough left to get into the playoffs, but in terms
1:03:56
Speaker 2: of accomplishing what they needed to do with the Cubs.
1:03:58
Speaker 2: It was a seven-game series spread over two weeks, and
1:04:01
Speaker 2: the Brewers won six of them. We're going to talk
1:04:03
Speaker 2: about football and do our football preview and football picks
1:04:06
Speaker 2: coming up next on the Mark Belling Podcast. This is
1:04:11
Speaker 2: the Mark Belling Podcast, and it's the final segment on Thursday,
1:04:14
Speaker 2: which means it's time for our football preview and some
1:04:17
Speaker 2: football point spread picks. And I'm joined, as always, by
1:04:19
Speaker 2: Mike Merlett of American Sports Analysts in Madison. Their website
1:04:23
Speaker 2: is asawins.com. It's the first weekend of the NFL. In fact,
1:04:29
Speaker 2: as we do this podcast, and again, we'll remind the
1:04:31
Speaker 2: audience if you're hearing it later, we're recording right after
1:04:34
Speaker 2: noon on Thursday. There's already one NFL game over. The
1:04:39
Speaker 2: rest of the NFL opens up game tonight and then
1:04:41
Speaker 2: a series of games over the course of the weekend
1:04:43
Speaker 2: and a full slate of college football. Mike, what would
1:04:46
Speaker 2: you like to share with the audience about ASA and
1:04:48
Speaker 2: your activities this weekend?
1:04:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, they can just check out, like you said, first
1:04:53
Speaker 3: NFL weekend, first big, big weekend in college. So, I'd
1:04:56
Speaker 3: say Friday is the best time to check our website, asawins.com.
1:05:00
Speaker 3: And then we'll send stuff out on Twitter, X, as well.
1:05:03
Speaker 3: And you can follow us at asawins on that as well.
1:05:07
Speaker 2: At asawins is your handle on X. I didn't know
1:05:11
Speaker 2: you were on there. Well, I'm going to go on
1:05:13
Speaker 2: there and follow you. That'll be good stuff. Okay. Okay.
1:05:17
Speaker 2: As I mentioned last week, we were going to spend
1:05:19
Speaker 2: most of our preview this week on the NFL. But
1:05:22
Speaker 2: before I get to the NFL, I want to very
1:05:24
Speaker 2: briefly touch on On two quick college football topics. The first,
1:05:29
Speaker 2: Wisconsin plays an FCS opponent. It's the opposite of last week.
1:05:33
Speaker 2: They played maybe the best team in the country last week,
1:05:35
Speaker 2: Notre Dame. Now they get to play an FCS opponent
1:05:39
Speaker 2: in Western Illinois. I don't even know if Western Illinois
1:05:42
Speaker 2: was any good in FCS last year. I do know this, though.
1:05:46
Speaker 2: Wisconsin really needs to play a weak opponent and allow
1:05:51
Speaker 2: these players to go off and get a lot of success.
1:05:56
Speaker 2: They need a confidence booster, and I think that this
1:05:59
Speaker 2: game comes to them at the right time. If they
1:06:02
Speaker 2: come out flat, as they did last year, they played
1:06:04
Speaker 2: an FCS team in Week 2 last year, I think
1:06:06
Speaker 2: it was South Dakota, and they looked only okay in
1:06:09
Speaker 2: that game. They, I think, really need a significantly strong performance,
1:06:15
Speaker 2: and it will be dismissed as, well, it was only
1:06:17
Speaker 2: Western Illinois, but they need to do that to someone.
1:06:19
Speaker 2: What do you think?
1:06:21
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I mean, just a quick touch on
1:06:23
Speaker 3: Western Illinois. They played Illinois State last week, who was
1:06:27
Speaker 3: in the national championship of the FCS title game last year,
1:06:32
Speaker 3: and they lost 41-10 to Illinois State.
1:06:34
Speaker 2: But again, that was a strong FCS opponent, right?
1:06:38
Speaker 3: Very, very strong FCS opponent. I agree with you. I
1:06:41
Speaker 3: think they need a huge win. They're favored by 36-ish points.
1:06:45
Speaker 3: They need to win big. I was at the game
1:06:48
Speaker 3: last week. I thought Wisconsin outplayed Notre Dame in the
1:06:50
Speaker 3: first half. They had more yardage, better yards per play,
1:06:53
Speaker 3: better yards per carry. The defense allowed 4.2 yards for
1:06:56
Speaker 3: play to one of the best offenses in the first
1:06:58
Speaker 3: half and then turned around and gave up 7.4 yards
1:07:01
Speaker 3: for play in the second half. So big difference there.
1:07:04
Speaker 3: The other thing I've heard people talking about, well, they
1:07:07
Speaker 3: only scored 13 points, their offense. I thought their offense
1:07:10
Speaker 3: looked better. They averaged 4.6 yards for play against Notre Dame.
1:07:14
Speaker 3: To put that in perspective, one of the best defensive
1:07:16
Speaker 3: teams in the country, to put that into perspective, Mark,
1:07:20
Speaker 3: Wisconsin averaged 4.2 yards per play the entire season last year.
1:07:23
Speaker 3: So they performed better against Notre Dame than they did
1:07:26
Speaker 3: the entire season last year. I think they'll blow them out.
1:07:29
Speaker 3: They have to. They have to. They need to blow
1:07:31
Speaker 3: someone out and get some confidence moving ahead. I agree
1:07:33
Speaker 3: with you 100%.
1:07:35
Speaker 2: Real quickly, a couple of things about the game. I
1:07:36
Speaker 2: thought Notre Dame did a tremendous job of neutralizing the
1:07:39
Speaker 2: great Badger linebacking core. Yep. Poza and Catalano, I didn't
1:07:44
Speaker 2: even hear their names mentioned hardly ever. They had a
1:07:47
Speaker 2: very good offensive game plan. to block those guys. I
1:07:50
Speaker 2: was impressed with the Wisconsin receivers. They had multiple receivers. Now,
1:07:53
Speaker 2: the Wisconsin didn't have the ability, other than the touchdown,
1:07:55
Speaker 2: to go long, but they were able to compete some
1:07:57
Speaker 2: passes underneath, and they looked to me to be more
1:07:59
Speaker 2: talent on the receiving core. Now that the Notre Dame
1:08:03
Speaker 2: game is out of the way, which, as I said,
1:08:05
Speaker 2: it was just a terrible scheduling situation for a team
1:08:08
Speaker 2: trying to resurrect itself to play against Notre Dame when
1:08:12
Speaker 2: Notre Dame's at the top of their game. So we'll
1:08:14
Speaker 2: see what happens. Real quickly, The marquee game of the
1:08:17
Speaker 2: weekend is Ohio State-Texas. Last year, it was the statement
1:08:21
Speaker 2: game for Ohio State to beat Texas. That was in
1:08:24
Speaker 2: Ohio State. Ohio State goes to Texas, and Arch Manning
1:08:28
Speaker 2: had a great game last week, and he might finally
1:08:31
Speaker 2: be living up to his potential. Who's going to win
1:08:34
Speaker 2: this game, or at least what do you think about
1:08:36
Speaker 2: this game?
1:08:37
Speaker 3: Well, Texas is favored by 1.5 at home, the same
1:08:41
Speaker 3: as Ohio State was favored last year by 1.5 at
1:08:43
Speaker 3: home in this game. Ohio State won 14-7. last year,
1:08:47
Speaker 3: but got outplayed pretty bad in the stat sheet, to
1:08:49
Speaker 3: be honest. Texas had 336 total yards, Ohio State barely 200.
1:08:54
Speaker 3: They played in the playoffs the year before, so they
1:08:56
Speaker 3: played each of the last two years. Ohio State won
1:08:59
Speaker 3: that game 28 but that was close late, and Ohio
1:09:02
Speaker 3: State had like an 80-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown.
1:09:06
Speaker 3: Tough call. Ohio State's great as an underdog. Very rarely
1:09:09
Speaker 3: are they an underdog. 20-9 against the spread their last
1:09:12
Speaker 3: 29 times back to 2004. Texas is 20-1 at home
1:09:14
Speaker 3: straight up. lost to Georgia their last 21 games. I
1:09:19
Speaker 3: think it's a really, really tough call. Best game of
1:09:22
Speaker 3: the year. We have these two teams ranked number one
1:09:24
Speaker 3: and two in our power rating, so best game of
1:09:26
Speaker 3: the year.
1:09:26
Speaker 2: Where do you have Notre Dame?
1:09:29
Speaker 3: Notre Dame's three.
1:09:29
Speaker 2: Okay, well, there you go. I kind of think Texas
1:09:34
Speaker 2: is going to beat them, and I don't just say
1:09:37
Speaker 2: that because the game is in Texas. I kind of
1:09:38
Speaker 2: think they're going to beat them. I want to turn
1:09:40
Speaker 2: our attention to the NFL, and let's start before we
1:09:42
Speaker 2: get to this weekend's game. Just your thoughts on... on
1:09:46
Speaker 2: how the green Bay Packers look going into the 26 season.
1:09:52
Speaker 3: I think I don't have a great, first of all,
1:09:55
Speaker 3: it's the toughest division of football. In my opinion, NFC
1:09:58
Speaker 3: West can, can claim possibly because they have three really
1:10:01
Speaker 3: high level teams, but then they have a team that's
1:10:03
Speaker 3: not good in Arizona. Just to look at the NFC
1:10:06
Speaker 3: North three and four teams in Vegas are projected at
1:10:09
Speaker 3: winning records. And in the Vikings are projected to win
1:10:12
Speaker 3: either eight or nine games, which is by around 500.
1:10:15
Speaker 3: So no weak teams at all. Green Bay sitting at
1:10:17
Speaker 3: nine and a half total wins. You can go over
1:10:19
Speaker 3: and under. I just don't know what to think. My
1:10:23
Speaker 3: one main concern with Green Bay moving into the season
1:10:26
Speaker 3: is their offensive line. That's my biggest concern. I don't know.
1:10:31
Speaker 3: They're very inexperienced. 73 career starts across the offensive line,
1:10:34
Speaker 3: which is 29th in the NFL. You know, they've got
1:10:39
Speaker 3: their guard Banks has hurt. They might have to start
1:10:41
Speaker 3: a rookie there. Their other guard has one start in
1:10:43
Speaker 3: his career. Morgan's never started left tackle. That's the main
1:10:46
Speaker 3: concern with me on Green Bay. I'm not sure. We
1:10:49
Speaker 3: didn't pick over or under nine and a half wins.
1:10:52
Speaker 3: I think it could go either way. It's a tough
1:10:54
Speaker 3: call for me.
1:10:56
Speaker 2: I don't want to be a Debbie Downer. I'm pessimistic.
1:10:59
Speaker 2: I don't think the Packers got better at a single
1:11:01
Speaker 2: position on the team other than maybe place kicker if
1:11:06
Speaker 2: the rookie smack turns out to be good. I don't
1:11:09
Speaker 2: think that they got better at a single position. position.
1:11:13
Speaker 2: I think they're talented at several positions, including wide receiver.
1:11:18
Speaker 2: They picked a high round draft choice, but they also
1:11:20
Speaker 2: lost Romeo Dobbs. The running back situation's a disaster. Josh Jacobs'
1:11:26
Speaker 2: court date is today, so maybe he'll be reinstated in
1:11:30
Speaker 2: a few weeks, but I think the running back situation
1:11:33
Speaker 2: looks bad. The tight end situation is dicey with Tucker
1:11:36
Speaker 2: Kraft coming back off the ACL. You mentioned the offensive
1:11:40
Speaker 2: line problems. They start without, I think the Packers second
1:11:44
Speaker 2: and fourth best players are not with the team to
1:11:46
Speaker 2: start the season and Parsons and Josh Jacobs. So they're
1:11:50
Speaker 2: missing Parsons on the defense. Their cornerbacks appear very, very
1:11:54
Speaker 2: bad and they didn't have the greatest off season. There
1:11:57
Speaker 2: were just questions about the vibe and the team and
1:12:01
Speaker 2: Some people are wondering if the coach is on the
1:12:02
Speaker 2: hot seat at all of this. I dismiss all those
1:12:05
Speaker 2: concerns that I mentioned. If they were in the NFC South,
1:12:08
Speaker 2: which sucks, you've got no margin not to be really,
1:12:11
Speaker 2: really good in the North end. I just look at
1:12:15
Speaker 2: the Packers and I struggle to see where they've improved.
1:12:18
Speaker 2: I do think that some of the, you know, if
1:12:19
Speaker 2: you can finally get say 12 games out of Watson,
1:12:23
Speaker 2: I think golden will be better. The receiving core is,
1:12:27
Speaker 2: might improve and then add in, I'm forgetting his name,
1:12:29
Speaker 2: the second-round draft choice, the wide receiver that they picked
1:12:32
Speaker 2: in the draft. They might actually step forward, even though
1:12:36
Speaker 2: they've lost Romeo Dobbs. I didn't even add in the fact,
1:12:40
Speaker 2: I think when you change coordinators and they bring in
1:12:43
Speaker 2: new systems, you always step back. Now, Jonathan Gannon's a
1:12:46
Speaker 2: great coordinator. In fact, former head coach of Arizona was
1:12:50
Speaker 2: the coordinator at the Eagles, but Halfley did a great
1:12:53
Speaker 2: job at that position. So you're changing the system defensively,
1:12:57
Speaker 2: I do think this, the best thing the Packers have
1:12:59
Speaker 2: going for them is I think Jordan Love is an
1:13:02
Speaker 2: elite quarterback in the NFL. He can make great throws,
1:13:06
Speaker 2: but no matter how good you are, if you don't
1:13:09
Speaker 2: have an offensive line, you don't have an offense. It's
1:13:11
Speaker 2: a cliche, but it's just true. No O line, no O.
1:13:14
Speaker 2: So I'm worried about the Packers. Let's get to the
1:13:17
Speaker 2: game this weekend with the Vikings. Minnesota's a one and
1:13:20
Speaker 2: a half point favorite in the game on Sunday. The
1:13:23
Speaker 2: Vikings are a different team in terms of quarterback. In fact,
1:13:26
Speaker 2: they just announced they're carrying three quarterbacks on the roster,
1:13:30
Speaker 2: and J.J. McCarthy, last year's starter, is number three. They're
1:13:34
Speaker 2: loaded at the quarterback. They have three quarterbacks that are average.
1:13:37
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray's going to start. Carson Wentz, who's still around,
1:13:40
Speaker 2: is the backup. And McCarthy's now third strength. Clearly, they're
1:13:43
Speaker 2: going to try to trade him, but J.J. might not
1:13:47
Speaker 2: have any trade value. He has a terrible pick, but
1:13:49
Speaker 2: that pick is in the past, and I think having
1:13:51
Speaker 2: him not in the lineup Improves the team, and they
1:13:55
Speaker 2: have an outstanding defense. I'd lean to the Vikings beating
1:13:59
Speaker 2: the Packers. What do you think?
1:14:02
Speaker 3: Yeah, one of the most interesting things on this game
1:14:06
Speaker 3: is the line movement. So Green Bay opened as a
1:14:09
Speaker 3: one-and-a-half point favorite. We tracked probably 40 sportsbooks across the U.S.
1:14:16
Speaker 3: and overseas, and 65% of the bets are on Green Bay,
1:14:21
Speaker 3: and the line flipped significantly. to the Vikings as favorite.
1:14:24
Speaker 2: That usually means the big bets are the, are the
1:14:27
Speaker 2: ones that moved it, even though the smaller bets tilt
1:14:29
Speaker 2: the green Bay.
1:14:31
Speaker 3: Correct. Normally in that situation, you just say, take the Vikings.
1:14:35
Speaker 3: I mean, that's, that's a kind of a trigger for us,
1:14:37
Speaker 3: that type of a thing. I, you know, Kyler Murray's
1:14:40
Speaker 3: an average, he's quarterback, new system, couple positive for green
1:14:45
Speaker 3: Bay is Gannon's the new DC. And he's had a
1:14:48
Speaker 3: lot of success against O'Connell. He's faced them twice, once
1:14:51
Speaker 3: with the Eagles and, gave up 264 total yards, and
1:14:54
Speaker 3: last year with the Cardinals, who weren't even a great defense,
1:14:57
Speaker 3: and gave up 273 total yards. So he's had some
1:15:00
Speaker 3: success there. Again, we talked about the Packer injury. I
1:15:03
Speaker 3: agree 100% with you, Mark. Packers are missing their second-best
1:15:06
Speaker 3: offensive player, in my opinion, Jacobs, and their best defensive player.
1:15:10
Speaker 3: And Kraft might be their next-best offensive player, and we
1:15:14
Speaker 3: don't know what to expect of him. So they're losing
1:15:16
Speaker 3: some key players. They haven't done well in Minnesota. Lost
1:15:18
Speaker 3: eight of the last 11. The one thing that's big
1:15:21
Speaker 3: in week one that we follow division underdogs in week one,
1:15:26
Speaker 3: since 2003, 74 and 53 against the spread, almost 60%.
1:15:31
Speaker 3: That's in green Bay's favorite, but I can't take green
1:15:34
Speaker 3: Bay in this game.
1:15:34
Speaker 2: But the Packers originally were the favorite. So that thing
1:15:37
Speaker 2: in the underdog is when do you count the time
1:15:40
Speaker 2: as to when the team was favored and when, and
1:15:44
Speaker 2: when they're the underdog, uh, the game is tonight and
1:15:48
Speaker 2: we're doing the podcast on Thursday and it's, you've got
1:15:51
Speaker 2: the unique situation of the game being played in Australia,
1:15:54
Speaker 2: but the 49ers and the Rams, that's one of the
1:15:57
Speaker 2: marquee games of the weekend. A quick preview of that one.
1:16:01
Speaker 3: Same thing you talked about. I just said division underdogs.
1:16:04
Speaker 3: That would be the 49ers here. That three and a
1:16:05
Speaker 3: half point underdogs, 74 and 53 since 2003. And just
1:16:07
Speaker 3: specifically in this series, The last 15 meetings, the underdogs
1:16:14
Speaker 3: covered 13 times. So that would lean you toward San
1:16:18
Speaker 3: Francisco in this game just based on those two things. Australia,
1:16:23
Speaker 3: 15 hours ahead of us. The main thing that we're
1:16:26
Speaker 3: watching here is how the two teams have approached the
1:16:30
Speaker 3: travel completely different. I'm sure you've heard about that.
1:16:32
Speaker 2: In fact, you didn't hear it, but I just did
1:16:34
Speaker 2: a segment on the show in the segment before about
1:16:37
Speaker 2: how the 49ers went out a week in advance and
1:16:39
Speaker 2: the Rams went out two days before I just did
1:16:41
Speaker 2: a segment about that because I was fascinated. So there's
1:16:44
Speaker 2: clearly no consensus among the sleep scientists and the sports
1:16:48
Speaker 2: psychologist says to go way earlier, come out on the
1:16:51
Speaker 2: top of the game. And just as there isn't with
1:16:53
Speaker 2: regard to horses, I mean, who knows the answer to that?
1:16:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's going to, that's why it's going to be
1:16:59
Speaker 3: interesting to watch because it's two separate philosophies and we'll,
1:17:03
Speaker 3: we'll maybe get an idea of how that's going to
1:17:05
Speaker 3: work moving forward. Um, McVay has been really good in
1:17:07
Speaker 3: international games, three and all, all of them are in London,
1:17:10
Speaker 3: all won by at least 14 points. The Rams offense,
1:17:14
Speaker 3: can they duplicate what they had last year? They were
1:17:16
Speaker 3: generational good last year. Here, here's a stat for you, Mark,
1:17:21
Speaker 3: the 2005 Rams offense, over 54% of their drives reach
1:17:26
Speaker 3: the red zone or produced a touchdown before they reached
1:17:29
Speaker 3: the red zone last year. That's the highest rate since
1:17:34
Speaker 3: 2007 Patriots in that situation. So they were really good.
1:17:36
Speaker 3: They added Miles Garrett. So their defense is supposed to
1:17:39
Speaker 3: be better. They're easily the favorites to win the Super Bowl, 5-1.
1:17:42
Speaker 3: The next best is 10-1. But the Niners got guys back.
1:17:46
Speaker 3: Last year they went 12-5, and five of their best
1:17:48
Speaker 3: players didn't even play half the season. So they got
1:17:51
Speaker 3: some of those guys back. Really interesting matchup for week one.
1:17:55
Speaker 3: I'd probably lean underdog as long as it's above three,
1:17:58
Speaker 3: but nothing big on this for me at all because
1:18:00
Speaker 3: the Rams could be really, really good again.
1:18:02
Speaker 2: I mean, the Rams have been so hyped. the whole offseason,
1:18:06
Speaker 2: which just would lead me to believe week one is always,
1:18:09
Speaker 2: to me, unpredictable. I think you should take nothing out
1:18:12
Speaker 2: of whatever happens at week one. It's always a bunch
1:18:15
Speaker 2: of results that 10 weeks later just defy explanation. So therefore,
1:18:19
Speaker 2: I think that the 49ers are going to win because
1:18:20
Speaker 2: the Rams have gotten all this hype going into the season.
1:18:24
Speaker 2: But even with all that hype, it's not like they're
1:18:25
Speaker 2: favored by seven. It's three and a half or four
1:18:28
Speaker 2: over the 49ers. And finally, and before we get to
1:18:30
Speaker 2: our point spread picks, I did the same thing with
1:18:32
Speaker 2: regard to college football. Is there an NFL team or two,
1:18:37
Speaker 2: let's just say one, one NFL team that might be
1:18:40
Speaker 2: more improved than most people think?
1:18:43
Speaker 3: I think probably improved, I'd probably go Cincinnati. They were
1:18:50
Speaker 3: 6-11 last year. Part of that is their schedule this year.
1:18:54
Speaker 3: They play the second easiest schedule based on Vegas team
1:18:58
Speaker 3: win totals of their opponents. So the second easiest schedule
1:19:01
Speaker 3: this year. Mark and I have talked numerous times about
1:19:06
Speaker 3: in the past how the AFC North was such a
1:19:08
Speaker 3: good division i'm not so sure anymore cleveland's bad baltimore
1:19:13
Speaker 3: and pittsburgh have new head coaches i think they're going
1:19:15
Speaker 3: to be down a little bit the afc north you're
1:19:18
Speaker 3: talking about one of the best quarterbacks in the nfl
1:19:21
Speaker 3: the third best wide receiver core in our opinion and
1:19:24
Speaker 3: they improve their defense they got a bunch of veterans
1:19:26
Speaker 3: on their defense which stunk last year if their defense
1:19:29
Speaker 3: can just be average i think cincinnati should be much
1:19:31
Speaker 3: better than 6 and 11 which they were last.
1:19:33
Speaker 2: Year Is there a team that'll be worse? Or is
1:19:36
Speaker 2: the team out there that you think may be overrated
1:19:38
Speaker 2: and may not do as well as most people think?
1:19:42
Speaker 3: Yeah, this might surprise some people. Maybe not, because I
1:19:44
Speaker 3: talked about it last year.
1:19:45
Speaker 2: Chicago.
1:19:46
Speaker 3: Chicago was 11-6 last year. They had a lot of
1:19:49
Speaker 3: stuff break their way perfectly last year. Plus 22 in turnovers,
1:19:53
Speaker 3: five better than any other team. Nine and four on
1:19:56
Speaker 3: one score game. Chicago trailed in the fourth quarter in
1:19:59
Speaker 3: 14 of their 19 games, with playoffs included. So... Their
1:20:04
Speaker 3: point differential was plus 26, middle of the pack in
1:20:07
Speaker 3: the NFL. They had a negative yards per play differential.
1:20:10
Speaker 3: I think Chicago takes a step back this year. I
1:20:12
Speaker 3: don't think it's a huge step back, but I don't
1:20:14
Speaker 3: think they go 11-6 this year.
1:20:16
Speaker 2: I agree with that as well, but I also think
1:20:18
Speaker 2: Green Bay State takes a step back. I think that
1:20:21
Speaker 2: Minnesota is just improved simply because of the quarterback position,
1:20:25
Speaker 2: nothing else. McCarthy, I just felt was terrible. I thought
1:20:28
Speaker 2: he was maybe the worst starter in the NFL last year.
1:20:31
Speaker 2: He had a decent enough team around him. He just
1:20:34
Speaker 2: There's nothing special about him. He was just a stupid
1:20:36
Speaker 2: first-round pick, which everybody thought when they made him. And
1:20:40
Speaker 2: I think Detroit's going to be better. But everybody's saying that,
1:20:44
Speaker 2: and they still have injury problems, and they're still banged up.
1:20:48
Speaker 2: So maybe after all of this, the whole NFC North
1:20:51
Speaker 2: takes kind of a half-nudge down after being as good
1:20:56
Speaker 2: as it was. All right, let's get to some point
1:20:57
Speaker 2: spread picks. Jason Gotch is with us. And last week,
1:21:00
Speaker 2: because I didn't tell Jason that he couldn't used FCS
1:21:03
Speaker 2: teams in his picks. He used an FCS game. Northwestern
1:21:07
Speaker 2: played an FCS team in South Dakota, I believe, and
1:21:11
Speaker 2: Jason covered the spread. So I've changed my mind. I'm
1:21:13
Speaker 2: not allowing and disallowing his win and just exiting. No,
1:21:16
Speaker 2: Jason is 1-0. I'm saying that because Mike and I
1:21:20
Speaker 2: both lost. I took liberty to cover a six-point spread
1:21:24
Speaker 2: against James Madison. They lost by seven. I lost by
1:21:28
Speaker 2: a point. Mike beat West Virginia to one by 21,
1:21:31
Speaker 2: and I think they won by seven. Or 10, so
1:21:33
Speaker 2: that's the start that we got off to. So let's
1:21:35
Speaker 2: get in to the second week. Jason, which game do
1:21:37
Speaker 2: you want to hear the line on first? Giants and Cowboys.
1:21:41
Speaker 2: The Giants and the Cowboys. Glamour matchup from.
1:21:44
Speaker 4: The Sunday night game.
1:21:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, should be the second last one on here. Games
1:21:50
Speaker 2: in New York. The Cowboys on the road are favored
1:21:54
Speaker 2: by three over the Giants.
1:21:58
Speaker 4: I am going to go with John Harbaugh and Big Blue,
1:22:02
Speaker 4: the New York Giants, to cover that spread. I think
1:22:04
Speaker 4: they might actually win the game, Mark and Mike. Harbaugh,
1:22:08
Speaker 4: in his career in home openers, has a remarkable record.
1:22:13
Speaker 4: Not season openers, home openers. This is clearly also the
1:22:16
Speaker 4: season opener for the Giants. He's 16-2 in those games,
1:22:19
Speaker 4: dating back to his Ravens days. So I think a
1:22:21
Speaker 4: lot of energy in this game for the Giants. Harbaugh's
1:22:23
Speaker 4: first game, I think they find a way to cover
1:22:25
Speaker 4: and possibly win. Give me the Giants plus the three.
1:22:28
Speaker 2: I normally don't like teams with new coaches because everything
1:22:33
Speaker 2: has changed. But I think this is a different situation.
1:22:36
Speaker 2: The Giants coaching situation the last few years has just
1:22:39
Speaker 2: struck me as being a mess. And if we know
1:22:42
Speaker 2: anything about Harbaugh, He's a hard-driven, pain-in-the-ass winner, and I
1:22:48
Speaker 2: suspect he has been able to implement. He's more like,
1:22:52
Speaker 2: I'm not saying he's like Vince Lombardi, but Vince Lombardi
1:22:54
Speaker 2: back in 1959 was able to come in and change
1:22:57
Speaker 2: the culture of the Packers in three months, and I
1:22:59
Speaker 2: think that Harbaugh might have the ability to do that.
1:23:02
Speaker 2: Every year, the Cowboys are a mystery to me. They're
1:23:04
Speaker 2: always a team that has tremendous strengths and also a
1:23:08
Speaker 2: handful of weaknesses on the team. I think Jason makes
1:23:12
Speaker 2: a really interesting pick. I will not touch the NFL
1:23:16
Speaker 2: at week one, but if I did, I'd probably take
1:23:19
Speaker 2: an underdog because I think the whole thing's a mystery.
1:23:21
Speaker 2: He's getting the Giants three points at home in a
1:23:25
Speaker 2: big game, another one of these divisional games. Any quick
1:23:27
Speaker 2: thoughts on that one, Mike?
1:23:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you, Mark, as far as underdogs.
1:23:32
Speaker 3: We're very wary. If we take favorites, we have to
1:23:35
Speaker 3: be pretty confident in the first week because, as you said,
1:23:37
Speaker 3: you just never know. in the first week of the NFL.
1:23:41
Speaker 3: He's got the, you know, division underdog, division home underdog
1:23:44
Speaker 3: is even stronger than just division underdog in week one.
1:23:47
Speaker 3: So his pick looks decent, a good coach moving in there.
1:23:53
Speaker 3: I would take points, too. I wouldn't lay him with Dallas,
1:23:56
Speaker 3: that's for sure, in this game.
1:23:57
Speaker 2: Okay, time to get a pick from Mike. Where are
1:23:59
Speaker 2: we going, college or pros?
1:24:01
Speaker 3: Well, last week we had West Virginia up 24-0 at
1:24:05
Speaker 3: halftime and then almost lost the game, so that didn't
1:24:08
Speaker 3: work out. I'm going to use.
1:24:11
Speaker 2: That is the problem when you have teams playing an
1:24:13
Speaker 2: inferior opponent in week one in college. They start putting
1:24:16
Speaker 2: in subs and they take the foot off the gas pedal,
1:24:19
Speaker 2: so you have a dominant team that just let it
1:24:24
Speaker 2: slip a bit in the second half.
1:24:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what happened in the West Virginia game for sure.
1:24:29
Speaker 3: It looked great at halftime, and then they struggled to
1:24:32
Speaker 3: win the game outright. I'm going to look at two
1:24:34
Speaker 3: games this week. I'm going to either look at South
1:24:37
Speaker 3: Florida at Army. That's number 331, 332, if that helps.
1:24:43
Speaker 2: It does help a lot. South Florida and Army. South
1:24:46
Speaker 2: Florida's coach, he left. Golish went to Auburn, right? Yeah, Auburn. Yes.
1:24:53
Speaker 2: And a lot of transfers left with him. He just
1:24:56
Speaker 2: did a tremendous job at South Florida. Tough school to
1:24:59
Speaker 2: win at. So he's gone. Army is just the most
1:25:02
Speaker 2: consistent program there is. The coaching staff said it's the
1:25:04
Speaker 2: ability forever and The one thing about Army is the
1:25:09
Speaker 2: transfer portal is irrelevant to them. The players can't leave
1:25:12
Speaker 2: because they have the service commitment, and you can't transfer
1:25:15
Speaker 2: into Army because you have to be a cadet. So
1:25:17
Speaker 2: the one thing they could– the service academies are the
1:25:20
Speaker 2: only schools left that are still able to do program building.
1:25:24
Speaker 2: I don't know long-term if that will help them or not,
1:25:27
Speaker 2: but it means that those three schools are exempt from
1:25:31
Speaker 2: all the changes that are going on in college sports. Anyway,
1:25:34
Speaker 2: it's kind of revealing. Army's favored– By 3.5 points at home.
1:25:39
Speaker 2: That is, by the way, a.
1:25:40
Speaker 3: Conference game also.
1:25:42
Speaker 1: Yes.
1:25:43
Speaker 3: Yep. The other game I want to take a look
1:25:45
Speaker 3: at is Old Dominion-Virginia Tech. That's 325-326.
1:25:53
Speaker 2: Old Dominion and Virginia Tech. Now, that's the same kind
1:25:55
Speaker 2: of thing I had last week. It's an in-state game
1:25:57
Speaker 2: in the state of Virginia. Virginia Tech is favored by 19.5.
1:26:01
Speaker 2: Their new coach is James Franklin from Penn State. Virginia
1:26:05
Speaker 2: Tech favored by 19.5 over Old Dominion.
1:26:09
Speaker 3: Okay, let's go back to the first game. I'm going
1:26:11
Speaker 3: to take Army minus 3.5 in that game.
1:26:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that terrible line of that hook of 3.5.
1:26:16
Speaker 2: In fact, I see here it's with reduced juice, but
1:26:18
Speaker 2: we use scores and odds, and it's using the 3.5.
1:26:21
Speaker 2: I'm sure you'd rather have three. Tell us why you
1:26:22
Speaker 2: like Army there.
1:26:24
Speaker 3: Well, I like Army. Last week, they beat Bryant, who's
1:26:30
Speaker 3: an FCS team, 59-3. Had almost 600 yards rushing on
1:26:33
Speaker 3: 10 yards per carry. None of that was unexpected. So
1:26:35
Speaker 3: that's like a data point that nothing happened that we
1:26:38
Speaker 3: didn't think would happen. On the other hand, South Florida
1:26:42
Speaker 3: played Florida International. They won the game 19-9. They couldn't score.
1:26:46
Speaker 3: But if you dig deeper, they should not have won
1:26:50
Speaker 3: that game. Florida International, first of all, we had rated
1:26:52
Speaker 3: outside of our top 110 teams. They're not a good team.
1:26:56
Speaker 3: And in that game, Florida International had 381 yards on
1:26:59
Speaker 3: 5.1 yards per play. And South Florida had 208 yards
1:27:05
Speaker 3: on 3.7 yards per play. So they got out gained
1:27:08
Speaker 3: by 1.4 yards per play on the differential, one by
1:27:12
Speaker 3: 10 against a bad team because of three turnovers from
1:27:15
Speaker 3: Florida International. So they got lucky last week. Now they
1:27:19
Speaker 3: have to turn around and prepare short on a week
1:27:23
Speaker 3: for a completely different type of offense. Last week, Florida
1:27:26
Speaker 3: International threw 50 passes. Now they have to go against
1:27:29
Speaker 3: an Army offense that runs the ball all the time.
1:27:32
Speaker 3: Army's disciplined, at home, buttoned up. Now you've got a Florida,
1:27:36
Speaker 3: South Florida team that probably shouldn't have won their first
1:27:38
Speaker 3: game against a bad team. They have a brand-new coaching staff.
1:27:42
Speaker 3: Brian Hartline's the coach who came over from Ohio State.
1:27:44
Speaker 3: First road game, I think Army runs through them and
1:27:48
Speaker 3: wins this game by more than three.
1:27:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, the service academies catch teams that aren't ready for
1:27:53
Speaker 2: the option offense, and South Florida might not be ready
1:27:56
Speaker 2: for it. And you mentioned the coaching change. The quarterback
1:28:00
Speaker 2: was really good. He followed the coach over. to Auburn,
1:28:02
Speaker 2: so there's a lot of changes there. That sounds like
1:28:04
Speaker 2: a pretty good pick. I'm going to, with my pick,
1:28:08
Speaker 2: go back to a well that I've tapped into year
1:28:11
Speaker 2: after year after year. USC, every year, plays the most
1:28:16
Speaker 2: pathetic non-conference schedule you could imagine, and they're doing the
1:28:20
Speaker 2: same thing this year. They play three terrible teams. The
1:28:24
Speaker 2: reason nobody's going to the games at the Coliseum is
1:28:27
Speaker 2: it's hot this time of the year. Secondly, the opponents
1:28:29
Speaker 2: are all terrible, and the fourth game when they opened
1:28:33
Speaker 2: the big 10 season, they play Rutgers who, who knows
1:28:36
Speaker 2: what's going to happen to Rutgers after they were humiliated
1:28:38
Speaker 2: last week. So anyway, this weekend's opponent for USC. They're
1:28:43
Speaker 2: favored by 30. Let me get my notes here. They're
1:28:46
Speaker 2: favored by 30 and a half points. And they're playing,
1:28:50
Speaker 2: I believe, Louisiana, which sometimes is referred to as Louisiana Lafayette.
1:28:58
Speaker 2: I want to get my current line. Yeah, USC's favorite
1:29:01
Speaker 2: at home by 30.5 points, and I'm going to lay
1:29:03
Speaker 2: the whole 30.5 points, something that I did a couple
1:29:06
Speaker 2: of times last year. USC last week pasted a really
1:29:13
Speaker 2: good Fresno team. They won the game 39-0. The quarterback
1:29:17
Speaker 2: is back again. Jordan Maiava is really good. I think
1:29:21
Speaker 2: they finally have a defense out there. Lincoln Riley has
1:29:25
Speaker 2: just not had at USC the kind of explosive offenses
1:29:28
Speaker 2: that he's had at Oklahoma, but I think they're getting
1:29:30
Speaker 2: better every year. I think that they're a top echelon
1:29:33
Speaker 2: team in the Big Ten. Louisiana played one game last week.
1:29:38
Speaker 2: This is the third game of the year for USC.
1:29:39
Speaker 2: It's only the second for Louisiana. Louisiana played a very
1:29:42
Speaker 2: weak team last week. USC comes off of a strong game.
1:29:46
Speaker 2: I just think that there's every reason... for USC to
1:29:49
Speaker 2: try to put up a lot of points and show
1:29:51
Speaker 2: some offense, and they have a very, very good defense
1:29:53
Speaker 2: right now. They can hold Louisiana under 10, and I
1:29:56
Speaker 2: easily think that they're going to get into the 50s.
1:29:59
Speaker 2: They scored 39 and 42 points in their first two games,
1:30:03
Speaker 2: and now I think they play a team with the
1:30:04
Speaker 2: weakest defense of all. They're a really deep team. When
1:30:07
Speaker 2: they go to the bench in the third and fourth
1:30:09
Speaker 2: quarter and put in the backup quarterback, they're still going
1:30:12
Speaker 2: to put up points. I don't want to lay on
1:30:14
Speaker 2: a lot of points, but I've had this thing of
1:30:15
Speaker 2: early in the season just continuing to take USC and
1:30:18
Speaker 2: in these games in which they try to make a statement,
1:30:20
Speaker 2: put up a big splashy number against terrible, how do
1:30:23
Speaker 2: they get away with just constantly scheduling cupcakes? I mean,
1:30:28
Speaker 2: most teams put in at least one good non-con non-conference game,
1:30:32
Speaker 2: but USC and they don't even have, I don't think
1:30:34
Speaker 2: they have later in the season, the Notre Dame game anymore.
1:30:37
Speaker 2: So their non-conference games is just three terrible teams to
1:30:40
Speaker 2: start the season. And I guess they're trying to get
1:30:43
Speaker 2: momentum to going into the, uh, start of the year.
1:30:45
Speaker 2: I don't know if you've taken a look at that
1:30:47
Speaker 2: game or not, but I think USC is going to
1:30:49
Speaker 2: get into the fifties and I don't think Louisiana will
1:30:51
Speaker 2: score much.
1:30:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, we, we had a, so the first week USC
1:30:56
Speaker 3: played San Jose state, they were way at 28 to
1:30:59
Speaker 3: zero a half and then allowed some points and only.
1:31:03
Speaker 2: One by 16.
1:31:03
Speaker 3: So last week we took USC in the first half,
1:31:06
Speaker 3: they were favored by 13 and a half against Fresno.
1:31:09
Speaker 3: Cause we figured they'd come out strong in the first half.
1:31:12
Speaker 3: want to bury a team and get way ahead. And
1:31:13
Speaker 3: they were up 28, zero at halftime. So we won
1:31:15
Speaker 3: that game, but then they kept the pressure on. They
1:31:18
Speaker 3: won 39 to zero, gave up only 116 total yards
1:31:21
Speaker 3: to Fresno.
1:31:22
Speaker 2: And Fresno is not a terrible team.
1:31:25
Speaker 3: No, they're not. They don't have a good offense, but
1:31:26
Speaker 3: they've got to, their offense is not going to be
1:31:29
Speaker 3: good this year, but their defense is one of the better,
1:31:31
Speaker 3: one of the decent mid-major type defenses. And that is 39, zero.
1:31:35
Speaker 3: So if they keep the pressure on, unlike they did
1:31:39
Speaker 3: the first game, I think they'll cover the 31. I
1:31:42
Speaker 3: would agree they'll get 40-plus at least. I can't see
1:31:46
Speaker 3: Louisiana Lafayette scoring more than two touchdowns. So I think
1:31:49
Speaker 3: you've got a decent play there. I think after what
1:31:51
Speaker 3: happened the first game, they'll just keep rolling with the
1:31:53
Speaker 3: offense and score a lot of points and cover this game.
1:31:55
Speaker 2: I agree. Yeah, if Texas was an underdog against Ohio State,
1:31:59
Speaker 2: I would have used Texas. But that spread at one
1:32:02
Speaker 2: and a half, I could easily see whichever team winning
1:32:04
Speaker 2: this game by only a point, so I stayed away.
1:32:06
Speaker 2: from that one. And I've just made this vow that
1:32:09
Speaker 2: I will never pick an NFL game in week one
1:32:11
Speaker 2: because week one is impossible for anyone to understand. So
1:32:14
Speaker 2: to quickly recap the picks, I didn't write anything down here.
1:32:18
Speaker 2: I can do what I think. I only have to
1:32:19
Speaker 2: remember three of them anymore. Jason said, take the Giants
1:32:22
Speaker 2: to either beat the Cowboys or lose by less than three.
1:32:26
Speaker 2: Mike needs Army to beat South Florida by four or more.
1:32:30
Speaker 2: And I'm taking one of those huge favorites, which used
1:32:33
Speaker 2: to be something people did all the time, but They're
1:32:36
Speaker 2: just situations now, and I think NIL makes the chances
1:32:39
Speaker 2: for these wipeouts even greater. And also, this whole thing
1:32:43
Speaker 2: where teams get extra points now in the college football
1:32:49
Speaker 2: ratings and the polls by slaughtering teams gives you an
1:32:51
Speaker 2: incentive to murder a team rather than put a bunch
1:32:55
Speaker 2: of subs in. And, you know, USC starts conference games
1:32:58
Speaker 2: next week. I just think that they're going to put
1:33:00
Speaker 2: a pasting on Louisiana, so I need them to win
1:33:03
Speaker 2: by 31 points. or more points. We'll talk to Mike
1:33:07
Speaker 2: next week. That's it for this weekend's podcast. Talk to
1:33:10
Speaker 2: you again on Monday.
1:33:14
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