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Trump Goes Birther on Haley · Pod Save America

• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Welcome to pod save america i'm john favreau i'm dan
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: pfeiffer we're back dan for our first uh our first
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: friday show I don't know if you heard the end
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: of Tommy and Lovett's show on Wednesday, but Lovett said,
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: will John and Dan be back?
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: I guess they'll be back.
• 0:35
  Speaker 3: It's a great question. It's confusing.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: It's a Friday show, but we're recording this on Thursday,
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: which is why for three years you guys called the
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Tuesday pod Monday pod publicly, confusing everyone.
• 0:44
  Speaker 4: I know.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I know. It's Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday. Everyone remember, Tuesday, Wednesday,
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Friday for listeners. For us, we're going to have to
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: think about, you know, we have a whole different recording schedule.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: All right, on today's show, Ron DeSantis says he's staying
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: in the race, but his campaign doesn't seem so sure.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris kick their reelect into high gear.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump orders MAGA Mike Johnson not to cut a
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: deal on border security. And later, we'll be joined by
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire Public Radio's Josh Rogers for a preview of
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Tuesday's primary. First, let's talk about the state of the
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: race in New Hampshire, where Nikki Haley is looking to
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: score a major upset against Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, a
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: man who's been judged a rapist by a jury of
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: his peers, and is still facing 91 felony counts for
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: committing fraud, stealing classified secrets, and trying to overturn the
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: last election so he could remain in power. Charges he's
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: fighting with the legal defense that presidents are allowed to
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: commit as many crimes as they'd like, even if they, quote,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: cross the line. According to the five... This is the
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: guy who's in the lead. Nikki Haley is just trying
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: to score major upset against this guy, the adjudicated rapist.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: 91 felony counts he's facing. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Trump is at 47% in New Hampshire, but with Nikki
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Haley just 13 points behind, nipping at his heels with 34%.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: It's no more Mr. Nice Guy. In Portsmouth on Wednesday,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Trump let loose a few bird brains, his favorite name
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: for Nikki Haley. He called attention to her Indian first name, Nimarata,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: photoshopped a picture of her face on Hillary Clinton's body,
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: and delivered another gracious, disciplined speech like the one we
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: saw in Iowa on Monday night.
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: A vote for Nikki Haley this Tuesday is a vote
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: for Joe Biden and a Democrat Congress. The people behind
• 2:34
  Speaker 5: Nikki Haley are pro-amnesty, they're pro-China, they're pro-open borders. You know,
• 2:38
  Speaker 5: she wants open borders. Non-liquid gold, you know where it was?
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Iowa.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: It's called corn. They have, it's non-liquid. That's my take.
• 2:46
  Speaker 5: You have more non-liquid gold. That's a nickname in its
• 2:50
  Speaker 5: own way.
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: But we came up with a new word for a.
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: New couple of words for corn. I said, well, is
• 2:55
  Speaker 5: that a hard test? It can be hard. I said, look,
• 2:57
  Speaker 5: I got to take it because I got to shut
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: it up. And I took it and I aced it.
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: And let me tell you, you know, they always show
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: you the first one, like a giraffe, a tiger, this
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: or that, a whale.
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: Which one is the whale?
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: OK. And that goes on for three or four. And
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: then it gets harder and.
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: Harder and harder.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Of course, that's Trump talking about taking a dementia test,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: which I think he should ask for a refund. That
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: is just... Anyway, that's the guy that, you know, half
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: the country says they want at the helm. You know,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: that's the kind of mental acumen that allows him to
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: just make sure that the economy is humming on all cylinders.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: That's what we love about him. So, Dan... Call her
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: me skeptical that Nikki Haley is going to be able
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: to pull off an upset now that Trump's going all
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: in on the attack that she's a Hillary loving globalist
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: establishment rhino shill with a funny name who wink wink
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: might not have even been born here. But what do
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: you think?
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: I feel like you're leading the witness with this question.
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: I share your skepticism. I'm not entirely.
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: Sure that Nikki Haley is trying to win at this point.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: I am mystified by what she is doing. She's doing
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: one event or so a day in New Hampshire. She's
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: really not taking questions. She's not barnstorming. She has five
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: days left in her presidential campaign if she does not
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: win New Hampshire. And she's not doing any of the
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: things that someone in that position would do. She's not
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: really fighting back. She's not laying out the stakes.
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: She's not. I mean, this would be the time in a.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: Campaign where you would campaign around the clock. Maybe you
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: would sleep for four hours a night.
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: You'd be up. You'd be at diners in the morning.
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: Then you would go here. You'd be on a bus tour.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: You'd do all these things. She's doing like one event
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: a day.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: It is the most bizarre thing I have ever seen.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Did you see that she flew back to South Carolina
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Tuesday night because her father is 90 and was in
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the hospital? So she wanted to visit her father. I
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: guess he's okay. He was having cancer treatments in the hospital.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: So she loses that night, day. I guess she was
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: back on the trail Wednesday. She's been going everywhere with
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: Chris Sununu, the governor of New Hampshire. She did have
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: this to say about Trump's latest attack on Nikki Haley. Just,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: you know, a vote for Nikki Haley is a vote
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: for Democrats. Let's listen.
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: Trump says things.
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: Americans aren't stupid to just believe what he says.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: The reality is who lost the House for us? Who
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: lost the Senate?
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: Who lost the White House? Donald Trump, Donald.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Trump, Donald Trump. Nikki Haley will win every single one
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: of those back for us.
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: I've proven that.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Has she?
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I was going to say.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: When did she prove that?
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: She's not wrong about Trump, that's for sure. But yeah,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: even there, I don't sense the urgency. I'm not sure
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: what she's trying to do here.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: I think she's trying to land the plane where she
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: can end this campaign with some measure of dignity without
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: upsetting Trump to the point at which she has been
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: completely evicted from the party going forward.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: I have a different take, which is that she is
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: trying to win, but she is, at her core, a
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: cautious politician. who is very afraid to rock the boat.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: And so she's like, I don't want to take questions
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: because then I had the, you know, what was the
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: cause of the civil war? They really stumped me with
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: that one. So I don't want another situation where I
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: get a tough question and it takes me off my message.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: But also, I don't know if I should hit Trump.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know what my message is. I don't want
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: to piss off the right. I don't want to piss
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: off the moderate. So maybe I'll just crouch down in
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: my position and that'll be enough to win.
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: But I mean, that's insane. Yes, I think she is
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: an overly cautious politician. And let's even say she has
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: decided that because she was stumped by the most basic
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: question on a sixth grade history exam, that she's decided
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: that maybe she shouldn't take questions anymore. So do 15
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: events a day not taking questions.
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: Don't do one. I mean, there is just the electability.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: Message that she is offering now. maybe could have worked
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: if she was building a case for it over time.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: But she has not done that. She has not leaned
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: into it. And even then, she does not say the
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: thing you have to say if you want to deliver
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: an electability message, which is, if you nominate Donald Trump,
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: he will lose to Joe Biden. That's the thing you
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: have to say, but she won't say that because that
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: will anger, I don't know if she cares if it
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: angers Trump personally, but it'll anger some people in the party.
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: She thinks Donald Trump's probably going to beat her. She
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: doesn't want that hanging over her. And here's the problem
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: with waiting on the selectability message. You and I have
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: been talking about Republicans offering an electability message on Trump
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: for a year. It's possible we were always wrong. And
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: Republicans made it, including Nikki Haley, made it worse for
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: themselves by never really being able to admit that Joe
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: Biden legitimately won the election. But right now, she's doing
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: this message. She decided this is what she's going to use.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: In the YouGov poll that came out this week, they
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: asked people, regardless of who you support, who do you
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: think will win the elections? 84% of Republicans think Donald
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Trump's going to win the election. They are not afraid
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: he's going to lose. And so you need a different message.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: I think that she made.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: What do you think that message would be? I don't
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: even know what that would be. If I didn't go
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: with the electability one, I don't know what I would do.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: There's no message you can come up with today that
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: is going to solve this problem. You needed this message
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: for a year. If she had done, I'm not saying
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: she could have won. That's not the argument I'm making.
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: But you build an argument up over time, particularly for
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: someone like Donald Trump, who is incredibly well-known and incredibly
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: well-liked by the voters you need. The change message that
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: she was offering in her concession slash victory slash I
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: got third place, but it wasn't a terrible third place
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: speech in Iowa, was a message that could have been
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: at the foundation of a more successful campaign than the
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: one she's running. But she didn't really do that. And
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: I do think there was one massive strategic blunder she made.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: And that was she should never have gone to Iowa.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: All the chips are in New Hampshire. She wins New Hampshire,
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: she has a shot. The world can debate if it's
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: a 2% shot or a 20% shot, but she stays
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: alive to fight another day. So instead of staying in
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: New Hampshire and competing where she had to win, she
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: went to Iowa, took time going to Iowa, and tried
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: to possibly beat Ron DeSantis for second. And even if
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: she had done that, she still would have lost by
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: 30 points. The idea that that was going to somehow
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: give her momentum, it was a fundamental blunder when she
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: should have just stayed in New Hampshire and given herself
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: a shot to actually win that. And look, we've only
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: seen a couple of polls. Maybe she will win New Hampshire.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: I would be surprised by that outcome. But she has
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: not maximized her chances by running a good campaign or
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: being a particularly good candidate, frankly.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I don't have a strong opinion on this. I'm not
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: sure it would have mattered if she had skipped Iowa
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: and stayed in New Hampshire. There would have just been
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: more pressure on her to win New Hampshire, but she
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: needed to win it anyway. And then you know, she
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: would have maybe gotten even lower in Iowa if she
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: wouldn't campaign there, or maybe she wouldn't have. I don't
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: think it fucking matters either way.
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: She was coming in third in Iowa under all scenarios, right?
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, I don't, yeah, I just
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: don't know that it would have mattered. I do think,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: I looked into the New Hampshire polls. It just seems
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: like she's, even these polls where she's down by like
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: double digits to Donald Trump, 10 points, 13 points, whatever.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: She's definitely gaining in these polls. The challenge for her
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: is that Trump is gaining as well, and that with
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Vivek out and DeSantis fading, those voters, as we've been
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: saying for a while, they're not going to Haley, they're
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: going to Trump. And so he's gaining just like she's gaining.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: She is winning moderates, winning the undeclared vote, which could
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: be a big portion of the electorate on Tuesday. She's
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: winning liberals, obviously, winning college-educated voters. It just doesn't seem
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: like in the polls that she's winning those groups by
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: enough or that there are enough of them to counteract
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Trump's strength with conservatives, Republicans and non-college voters. And she
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: could expand the electorate and there are enough undeclared voters
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: in New Hampshire for her to win. But that would
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: require giving people a reason to come out to vote
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: for or.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: Going to meet them by doing events. I mean, there
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: are enough independent voters. In 2012, you need to pick
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: to try to give yourself a baseline that you have
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: to pick a year in which there was only a
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Republican primary. But in 2012, I think it was 49%
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: of the electorate was independents. And one of the things
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: that's interesting, we look at all these polls, is she
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: down seven, down 20, is what the estimate of the
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: independent share of the electorate is in that poll, right?
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: The CNN poll, when she was down seven, it was
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: about half. It was probably like 44%, I think. So
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: there are enough voters there, but you can't get their
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: own independents alone. You have to win a slice of
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: Republicans and then overwhelmingly the independents. And she's kind of
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: doing neither right now.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: And the Trump people, of course, know that she's trying
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: to appeal to undeclared voters, moderates, independents. And so they
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: have an ad that they are running on MSNBC, of
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: all places, about Nikki Haley. Let's take a listen.
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: Social Security, Medicare, how would you manage the entitlements? We
• 12:13
  Speaker 4: say the rules have changed.
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: We changed retirement age to reflect life expectancy.
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: What we do know is 65 is way too low,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: and we need to increase that.
• 12:22
  Speaker 6: Haley's plan cuts Social Security benefits for 82% of Americans.
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: Trump will never let that happen. I'm Donald J. Trump,
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: and I approve this message.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Ouch. It's really a twofer because, you know, you run
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: that out on MSNBC. Liberals and moderates don't like that.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: There's probably a bunch of conservatives that don't like that either.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Because in this Republican Party, you have the working class
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: voters who get really excited about sort of the cultural
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: racial issues and not as much about economics and actually
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: probably like their Social Security benefits.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, outside of Paul Ryan's living room, you probably
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: can't find a person who thinks that cutting Social Security
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: and Medicare is a great idea politically or personally.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: So, yeah.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's, I think, ironic that MSNBC wouldn't air
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: Trump's victory speech, but we'll take his money for his ads.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: But that's a conversation for another day.
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: It's a.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Air the speeches. CNN, MSNBC, air the fucking speeches. It's
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: driving me nuts.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: Just us furiously trying to find C-SPAN on the cable
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: box on Monday night so we can catch.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: Well, it's not for us even. It's just like Americans
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: need to be reminded of why they hated Donald Trump
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: so much. What are we doing? Anyway, go.
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: It's crazy. But yeah, it's smart.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: They recognize that they can drive down her vote share
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: even a tiny bit with independents. You know, how many
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: New Hampshire independents watch MSNBC if you do the math
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: based on a national basis? You know, it's not that many,
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: but not that many also matters.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: A couple of my aunts. I think they're MSNBC viewers.
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: That's right.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: Were they heading out to catch Haley at the Puritan
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: back room?
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: That's right.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: There you go. Yeah, they're going to have some chicken
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: fingers in the business. It does seem like that the
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: Trump people don't just want to beat her in New Hampshire.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: They want to beat her so badly that she drops
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: out before South Carolina. It seems like they're going for
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: the kill here on her and DeSantis. They want to
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: end this thing after New Hampshire, which they might.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: I saw a story today somewhere that said Trump people
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: targeting Super Tuesday to end the primary.
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: I was like, really?
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: That seems like the worst case scenario for him at
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: current trajectory. How is this thing still going after South Carolina?
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: Unless somehow Haley beats him in South Carolina, which seems
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: quite hard to imagine given her performance in Iowa, which
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: is moderate compared to South Carolina in terms of the electorate.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, she's going to get that boost coming in a
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: close second in New Hampshire. You see that, like, Chris Sununu,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: governor of New Hampshire, last month was saying, like, guarantee
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: that Nikki Haley is going to win New Hampshire. And, like,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: this week he was like, um, I mean, a strong
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: second is all we ever really hope for here.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, which tells you everything about their internal polling.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: I know. So we also got to talk about our
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: boy Tiny D, who finished 30 points behind Trump in Iowa,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: didn't win a single county. DeSantis is now apparently skipping
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire, where he's only at 5% in the polls.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: And his never-backed-down super PAC is, in fact, backing down
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: by laying off a bunch of staff. So DeSantis is
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: telling reporters he's staying in the race through March. I
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: don't actually see that happening. Do you?
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's really an existential question. Is he still
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: in the race right now? I mean, no one's thinking
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: about him. His obituary's been written. He's not in debates anymore.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: No one's really talking about them.
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, I mean, I guess.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: It's really a sixth sense ending here.
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: You know, I've thought really long and hard about bringing
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: the sixth sense up because you really.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: You didn't want a spoiler? Is that what it was?
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I was trying– Or you just think it's dating the references?
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: I don't mind, like– Look, I know my age. I
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: don't mind dating my references at all. But I was
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: sort of like, what is the– The statute of limitations
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: on spoiling a movie. And there's no way to make
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: the joke without spoiling one of the greatest twists.
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: Well, you know what?
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: We did it. That was not a spoil. We just
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: sort of... We did it. So, did you read Mark
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Caputo's story in The Messenger about how Trump crushed DeSantis?
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: It's this great, like... It's the type of story that's
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: written after this candidate drops out. But it's sort of
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: a pre-obituary. And it's just got... I have rarely seen
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: so many... consultants and campaign staff throw the candidate under
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: the bus before the campaign has even ended?
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: I have some thoughts on the story.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: One, I have rarely seen a reporter who, write a
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: piece with more obvious dripping disdain for the subject than
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: Mark Caputo clearly has for Ron DeSantis.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: That's true.
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: It was not subtle in any way, shape, or form
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: how he felt about him. And one of the tells
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: was that in this piece where he quotes, he basically
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: talks to anyone who has ever worked for or known
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis to get them to crap on Ron DeSantis.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: But then the lead quote in the story is just
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: from Chris LaCivita, Trump's campaign guy now, just dumping on
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis. Like totally unnecessary, did not need it to
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: be done. It just like leave the story with him
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: just basically destroying DeSantis in print. It was just, it
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: was a wild story. Second thing I'd say about the
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: story is fascinating story, very well written, full of interesting things.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: And while the details were new, I was surprised by
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: none of it, which shows what a horrendous campaign that
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: DeSantis ran. His campaign was leaking all this stuff. He
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: had obituaries written about his campaign every two months for years.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: And so when we got to this, I was not
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: at all surprised by it. I was like, yeah, none
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: of that's shocking. It makes complete sense. Some of those
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: anecdotes we kind of knew various versions of because the
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: only people who hated Ron DeSantis more than the people
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: of Iowa and New Hampshire were his staff, who have
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: been crapping on him to reporters the whole time.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: And the consultants who were at least being paid well.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: But we have one consultant that said no one tells
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: him he's wrong. Another consultant said, you know, he ignored
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: calls early to stay more focused on the economy and
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: sound more positive. He was told by advisers, DeSantis was
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: told by his advisers, that interactions with voters were crucial
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: and that he needed to seem more relatable to voters.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: DeSantis's response, quote, people don't care about that stuff. He
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: was told by his pollster that the six-week ban, abortion ban,
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: would be quite bad and not popular. He disagreed. Uh,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: one consultant said the Twitter launch was disaster. Remember the
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: Twitter launch? Remember with, uh, with his ex launch with
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Elon Musk and the, uh, and the besties and the
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: all in pod. They were, uh, remember that? That was fun. Uh,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: it's going to be the, it's gonna be the podcast election, Dan.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: It's going to be, that's what they think. Uh, They
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: told him to stop talking about Florida so much. And
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: then the consultant said, whoever advised him to go on
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Christian TV and say he wanted to have dinner with
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: Jesus should be fired. This campaign is like an Irish
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: wake waiting for the body to drop.
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah. That's the best line.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: That was just my favorite. I love that line. I
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: love that line. I have heard rumors that he's actually
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: having conversations about whether to stay in, despite what he's saying.
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: Pause. Pause. You've heard rumors?
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I have some sources.
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: Are you doing reporting now?
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: I am doing reporting, yeah, just accidentally. Accidental reporting. Accidental
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: reporting from text conversations.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: I'm sure he's thinking of how to wind this thing down.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely.
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: I think it seems like they're not going to have
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: the money. There was apparently an NBC story, there was
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: a call with donors where they said, we think we'll
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: probably be able to raise the money to stay until
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: South Carolina.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: Not a chance there's not a not a person.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Is saying that you think you think you might be
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: able to raise the money to stay into South Carolina
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: you probably can't raise the money to stay into South
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: Carolina who's gonna give that campaign money.
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: Right now that is the one thing you always know
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: when a campaign ever says I think we can raise
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: the money they definitely cannot It's over. It has been
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: over for months. It probably never started, to be fair.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: And everyone has known it. It has been– it's just–
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: even Ron DeSantis seems to have known it because he
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: had such joy at coming in second. And I'm using
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: joy in the most Ron DeSantis version of that, which
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: is he just seemed to briefly stop hating himself and.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: The smile just turned, the corners of his mouth just
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: turned up just a little. It was just like a.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: Relief that something not absolutely horrendous happened on the way out.
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: And it just says everything that that not horrendous thing
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: was losing by 30 points, not more. So, I mean,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: it is a, there are probably some object lessons that
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: we can talk about, about why his campaign was such
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: a disaster and what it says about politics. But there's
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: no question it was an absolute disaster.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: Some of you might be wondering why we've just been
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: so long talking about Ron DeSantis. And look, it's going
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: to be a long and brutal campaign. There's going to
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: be a lot of tough days. I wanted to dance
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: on his grave for a little bit. I had fun.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know about you. I think we deserve that, Dan.
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: The listeners deserve that.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. Yeah, they do. Yeah, this is fan service.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: I don't think there's anyone out there complaining about this.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: A few quick housekeeping notes. Dan, great second episode of
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: The Polar Coaster. I listened this week. I was catching
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: up on all my podcasts from when I was on
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: parental leave. You talked to Sarah Longwell, one of our favorites,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: to answer the question, can any Republican beat Trump?
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: Spoiler. Listen before Tuesday.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: But you should be listening to all the Polar Coaster episodes.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: You should be subscribing to Friends of the Pod so
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: you can get this fantastic content. It's Dan talking to
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: some of the smartest people in polling, some of the
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: smartest strategists. It's a fantastic show. It's a subscriber-exclusive series,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: so make sure to head to cricket.com slash friends to
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: get first access to new episodes and more. Anything else
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: you'd like to add, Dan, or did I plug that?
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: I thought you did a great job. But as we
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: always say, if you're someone like us who is going
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: to live and die with every one of these polls,
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: you want to know what's happening, you want to dig deep,
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: you're a junkie. If you're a polling junkie, this show's
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: for you.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: There you go. There you go. Also, we are officially
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: in an election year, which means it's time to get
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: psyched up with some fresh Vote Save America gear. Grab
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: a new tee for your next volunteer shift or a
• 22:38
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• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Plus 100% of profits from the Vote Save America collection
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: go straight towards supporting Vote Save America and grassroots organizations
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: that are helping Americans get the tools they need to
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: make a difference. Head to crooked.com slash store to shop now.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Before we move on, it looks like the Biden campaign
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: is finally kicking into high gear. They're running their first
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: ads in South Carolina ahead of the primary there on
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: February 3rd, the first primary that counts for Democrats. And
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: the campaign also announced that President Biden, the First Lady,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Vice President Harris, and the second gentleman will be holding
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: a rally focused on abortion rights in Northern Virginia on Tuesday,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: the day of the New Hampshire primary and the day
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: after the anniversary of Roe v. Wade. What's your take
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: on the thinking behind the timing, location... focus of this event?
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: I think it is smart to have a display of
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: political strength and enthusiasm on the day of the New
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: Hampshire primary. There are no delegates at stake. Biden is
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: not on the ballot, but there are Democrats organizing a
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden write-in campaign. Dean Phillips is a person who
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: still exists, and he's running up there. Marianne Williamson, believe
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: it or not, is still on the ballot up there.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: And usually, mostly polling ahead of Dean Phillips, wherever they
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: do polling.
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: Yes, that is true. I'm not entirely sure she's campaigning.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: I haven't heard anything about that, but she is on
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: the ballot. So there is going to be some coverage
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: of how Joe Biden does in that primary. And so
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: let's get some... And Trump's also going to likely have
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: a triumphant New Hampshire rally. And so it's time to
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: start getting images of Biden out there at the same
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: time to deliver his message and have a contrast message
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: to Trump and the Republicans.
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: Goes along there.
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: I'm assuming the location is because it's in Virginia and
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: close to the White House.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: What do you think about all four of them doing
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: it together?
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: Look, they're nothing harder than getting attention. And so they
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: are out there doing everything they possibly can to get
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: this very challenging media environment, this diminished press corps to
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: turn around and cover them and give it attention. And
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: so This is one of those tools in the toolbox
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: that you can use is get them all together. It
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: makes it seem different than just the normal Joe Biden
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: rally that does not get the attention that a Trump
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: rally does for reasons that are entirely unfair and very troubling,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: but are a fact. If they just announced that Joe
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Biden was going to be speaking on abortion in Virginia
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: on Tuesday, I'm not sure we would spend as much
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: time talking about it as them saying all four. They
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: are sending a signal to us in the press and
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: everyone else that this is a big deal, so pay attention.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: And we will.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: You think they're going to do it at night to
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: like counter program whatever happens with the New Hampshire results?
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: Should they do it at night? Does it matter?
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't think it matters that much.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: I would hope that they would try to, I mean,
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: he's the president of the United States. So if he
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: holds a big rally with, you know, the vice president
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: and their partners at night, the night of the New
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: Hampshire primary, you would hope that all the networks would
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: cut to that and show some footage from it.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, you would, but man, the Iowa ratings for
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: the cable networks were so depressingly low that I'm not
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: entirely sure it's worth it.
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: No, I think it's I totally agree with focusing on
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: kicking off the general election, focusing on abortion, especially around
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: the anniversary of Roe v. Wade. That's really smart. I
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: do have a question for you. I mentioned earlier that
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Trump said today that presidents must have complete and total
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: immunity from prosecution for any crime they commit in office,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: which is an even more extreme version of the argument
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: his lawyers have made in court. They said presidents can
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: be prosecuted. if they've been impeached, which also seems silly.
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: I feel like it's important for voters to know that
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: the guy they may elect thinks he has the legal
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: right to have them all killed. Is that just crazy,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: or is that not kitchen table enough for voters?
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: Until you get the price of eggs below a certain level,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: you cannot discuss this.
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: No, I think it is part of the argument.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: And yes, I agree. And how you make the argument matters.
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: I was looking at this when Trump's lawyers suggested that
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: he could send SEAL Team 6 to kill his political
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: opponent and not be prosecuted for it in court a.
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Few weeks ago. An infuriating classic already.
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: And so I went back and looked at polling and
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: message testing on it. And there was some message testing
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: that our friends at Navigator did about Trump's first original indictment.
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: And Saying that no one should be above the law,
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: even presidents, is a very, very powerful argument. And so
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: Trump arguing that he should be above the law is,
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: I think, an argument that can and should be made
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: in this campaign.
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: And maybe Biden will make it on Tuesday. I don't know.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: You know what I bet another powerful argument is? I
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: bet people don't like the idea of the person they
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: elect president being able to kill them. I don't know.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: I'd throw that one in a poll. I bet it
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: would go, I bet it would test pretty high.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, the thing is, it's definitely not popular to
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: want the president to kill you, but it's going to
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: be more popular than you think.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: Well, here's the thing is, I'm sure people are going
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: to test like, do you care about the president or
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: the politicians in general arresting or indicting political opponents? And
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: because no one really likes politicians anyway, I'm sure that
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: would not be that popular. But I do think that
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: the way to frame this is, Donald Trump is basically
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: out there saying, I can do anything I want to
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: people who disagree with me. Can be Joe Biden, can
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: be Joe Schmo. You know, like he thinks he is
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: above the law and can use the powers of the
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: presidency to do anything he wants. And if you do
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: not agree with him, even if you did work, look
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: at the way Donald Trump has treated the people who
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: work for him, the people who are his loyalists. It's
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: not even like he loves Republicans and hates Democrats. If
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: you cross Donald Trump at all, he's coming for you.
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: And now he thinks he is completely above the law
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: and can do whatever the fuck he wants. Infinite crimes.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: That's what Donald Trump thinks he deserves.
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: I would make that case.
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: He tried to murder his vice president.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: Just as one relevant example. So I would get on that.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: And I realize it's tough, too, because I'm sure the
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: Biden folks don't want to comment on the cases. I
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: know they have to be careful of that. But I
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: think when Donald Trump is truthing all kinds of crazy
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: shit that is outside the what's happening in the courtroom.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: And I think that's very much fair game.
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: Can I say one more thing about this before you
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: go on? We had our New Year's resolution episode a
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: few weeks ago. And one of my New Year's resolutions
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: was to improve my attention span. And then about 10
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: days after that, I set up Twitter alerts for this
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: bot that sends you, that posts on Twitter, Trump's truth
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: social posts.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah. You set up an alert for that?
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: Well, John, this is my job and I take it seriously.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: I follow that account. I'm so glad someone finally did
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: it because trying to find the truth on truth social
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: is a pain in the ass.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: Well, my takeaway from that, other than the possible damage
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: I'm doing to my brain from it, is people need
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: to know what's happening on there.
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: It's wild.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah. MSNBC, CNN, this is what I'm saying.
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: It's not being covered.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: No, it's not being covered.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Now that Trump is essentially the presumptive nominee of the
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: Republican Party, every one of those true socials should be
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: covered as his tweets were covered in- 20 from 2015
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: till the day he was kicked off Twitter the first time.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be sleepwalking into a second Trump term
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: because no one wanted to platform him.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: We all, we are all sleepwalking on it. It was just,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: it was like Jamie Dimon the other day talking about
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: how Trump's probably going to win.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: And yeah, I mean, just like all the.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: He's going to get a huge tax cut. So I'm
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: sure he wants that.
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's, it's just people should file shit. I'm
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: not saying people, you don't have to go on true social,
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: check out this Twitter account, See what's happening there. If
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: you're a reporter, report on it, because voters should know
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: that it is crazier than ever and that it's not
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: coming through in the coverage.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Believe it or not, there's still a loose attempt at
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: governing happening in Washington right now. It looks like Congress
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: just barely avoided a government shutdown by passing yet another
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: temporary funding bill that's going to give them until March
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: 1st and March 8th to fully fund the government. That's
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: going to be a fun week. State of the Union
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: March 7th and then a government funding deadline on March 8th.
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: Good times. Meanwhile, all four congressional leaders met with Biden
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: on Wednesday to see if they could agree on an
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan in exchange for
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: stricter border and immigration policies. Win-win all around. Democrats left
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: the meeting saying they were optimistic about a deal. Some
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: of the reporting was a little less positive. And this
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: is what we heard from Speaker Mike Johnson on Laura
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Ingraham's show.
• 31:46
  Speaker 7: The president actually just got off the phone with me
• 31:50
  Speaker 7: right before the show, and he said he has spoken
• 31:52
  Speaker 7: to you about this deal and that he is against it,
• 31:56
  Speaker 7: and he urged you to be against this deal. He
• 31:59
  Speaker 7: was extremely, President Trump was extremely adamant about that. Your
• 32:04
  Speaker 7: reaction to that, given the fact that, look, he already,
• 32:07
  Speaker 7: he knows how to do this enforcement stuff. You don't
• 32:09
  Speaker 7: need some new bill coming out of the Senate to
• 32:13
  Speaker 7: get the border enforced.
• 32:15
  Speaker 6: Yeah, President Trump is not wrong. He and I have
• 32:16
  Speaker 6: been talking about this pretty frequently. I talked to him
• 32:20
  Speaker 6: night before last about the same subject. We don't have
• 32:23
  Speaker 6: the text of whatever the Senate has cooked up yet.
• 32:26
  Speaker 6: And so we have to reserve judgment, I think, to
• 32:28
  Speaker 6: see what comes out of it.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Dad says no. Sorry. Boss says I can't do it.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: And you know what? He doesn't... Bills out of Congress?
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: He doesn't need any laws. He's got total and complete immunity.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: This guy is a dictator. He's going to come into office.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: He's going to fix the border. He's going to need Congress.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: He's probably going to dissolve Congress by the time he
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: gets there. Trump followed up with a... I'm sure you know.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Who am I telling you? I'm not
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: telling you anything you don't know. You've got the alert.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: Trump followed up with a truth where he did say...
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: He admitted that he told Mike Johnson not to cut
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: a deal unless it was perfect. We haven't talked about
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: this in a while, but what do you think the
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: chances are something gets done at this point? And then
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: how do you think Biden and the Democrats should handle
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: the politics around this?
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, there is always a chance that Trump and
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: Mike Johnson's statement simply just creates more negotiating leverage for
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: the Republicans. So I think this is going to work
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: in two steps. I think that the Senate Republicans and
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: the White House and the Senate Democrats are thinking about
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: this separate and apart from the House. They're going to
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: get the best deal they can from both people's perspective.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: And then they're just going to hope something good happens
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: in the House. That seems unlikely, I would say, that
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: that happens. It doesn't seem great. And someone once said
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: to me that there are two kinds of politics in
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: the Congress. There's micropolitics and macropolitics. And the micropolitics are
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: the politics of how you keep your speakership, how you
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: move up in leadership, how you keep the caucus happy.
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: And then the macropolitics are how you win control of
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: the House, what's going to happen in the midterms, electionist,
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: national political trends. This is both micro and macropolitics for
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: Mike Johnson because the micropolitics are he's already– he's got
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: a– he just passed the CR, which he said he
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: was not going to do. He stuck with the Senate
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: with the deal he cut with Chuck Schumer, which he
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: said he was not going to do. He has a
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: majority of basically zero right now. He's got no margin
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: for error. Only one person can knock him out. And
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: so he's obviously going to have to– it seems impossible
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: in that scenario if he's going to cut some sort
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: of border deal that does not make the Freedom Caucus happy.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: Like you can upset the Freedom Caucus on government funding
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: or debt ceiling of the United States maybe once or twice,
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: but you can never upset them on immigration. That's the
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: one thing that you cannot do. And so that seems unlikely.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: From a macro perspective, it seems very clear that Republicans
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: would rather have a crisis at the border for the
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: election than solve the problem. And that's definitely what Trump
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: is thinking. If Trump was thinking in terms of being
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: a president, then it would be great to get this
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: off his plate. He doesn't have to deal with it.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: And be confident that he and Fox News can lie
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: enough about the crisis at the border to keep all
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: the politics of it and then have a solution waiting
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: for him. But he plans on running on a crisis
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: at the border, and he doesn't want to give Biden
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: any chance to cut a deal that he could then
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: say he did something good for the border. And so
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: with that in mind, it seems unlikely something's going to happen.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: And some of the Senate Republicans that have been negotiating
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: this deal have said that they'll never get a deal
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: like this under Trump, because even if Trump wins and
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Republicans have the Senate, they're not going to have 60
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: votes in the Senate. And so why would Democrats ever
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: decide to do a deal on the border when Trump
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: is president and Republicans control Congress? And so you've got
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: a lot of Republicans... John Thune, Lindsey Graham, all these
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: people saying like, hey, take this deal. This is the
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: best deal we're going to get. But like you said,
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Trump and Mike Johnson and the MAGA folks, they want
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: the issue. And if I were Biden and this thing
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: falls apart in the House, I might go out there
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: and say, look, I want to fix the border. I
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: think it's a problem. But the speaker and Donald Trump
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: and the MAGA wing of the party have basically forbid
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: Republicans from working with us to fix the problem because
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: they care more about winning the next election. They don't
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: care about fixing the problem. And that's exactly the problem
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: with the Republican Party right now, is that there is
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: an extreme faction that doesn't want to solve problems, that
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: just wants to play games.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: That is 100% right.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: Get this deal. Help get this deal across the finish line.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: Talk about the deal. Announce the deal. Talk about the
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: deal in the State of the Union. And then hammer,
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: if the Republicans are really not going to, if the
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: House Republicans are really not going to do anything, hammer
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: the living shit out of them for refusing to solve
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: the problem. And do that from now until November. And
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: then when you're on a debate stage with Donald Trump-
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: a moment that makes my blood pressure spike.
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: That's a moment, right?
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: We had a deal to deal with this problem. And
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: then because you cared more about winning this election than
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: helping the American people, you called up the House Republicans
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: and told them not to do the deal, even though
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: it was a bipartisan deal with the support of blah, blah, blah.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: There's a way to do this. The best thing for
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: everyone would be to get a deal and get it
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: done and because you get to help on the border,
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: Ukraine funding, Israel funding, the natural disaster funding, all of
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: those things. But if the House Republicans block it, make
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: them pay for it because it will help you against Trump.
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: And I think, and look, Biden, it's the issue he
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: pulls the worst on is immigration and the border. And this,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think it solves the problem for him, but
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: this is what he can say about immigration for now
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: for an entire campaign, which is one of the great vulnerabilities.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: And it happens to be not only the truth, but
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: what Republicans have been doing for decades, which is every
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: time we get close to comprehensive immigration reform that would
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: give a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and strengthen
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: border security, it's Republicans that end up tanking the deal
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: because they would rather demagogue the issue. And I think
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: voters will get that.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: We should stipulate. We don't know exactly what's going to
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: end up in this deal. I'm positive it's going to
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: have a lot of things that we don't like in
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: it and are probably not great policy. and would very
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: much in a different world with a different Senate, if
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: we different house have a much better deal. But also
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: Biden is operating in divided government, right? With a 50,
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: with a Senate with no margin of error and ability,
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: he's trying to do a whole bunch of things. So
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: the deal is going to not be awesome, but if
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: Republicans are going, if it's going to be a bipartisan deal,
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: Republicans are going to block it. We should make them
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: pay for doing that.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Well, and this is why I think it's even less
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: likely that something gets done because this is one where
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: even if Mike Johnson is for some reason, decided to
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: put the deal on the floor. Unlike some of these
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: government funding bills, I don't know that their Democratic votes
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: are there to save him, because I think there's going
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: to be a lot of stuff in this bill that
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: progressives don't like. I think Jayapal said that like 100
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: members of the Progressive Caucus are going to vote against
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: a deal. They don't know the details yet of what
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: the deal would be, but at least the outlines of
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: what they're hearing. And, you know, I'm not sure they
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: should vote for it, right? though I'd have to see
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: what the final details are. But so like, I don't, that's,
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: it just seems very unlikely that this gets done. Another
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: big win for Washington. Okay, when we come back, Dan
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: talks to New Hampshire Public Radio's Josh Rogers about what
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: the primary is looking like on the ground in the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: Granite State.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: The New Hampshire primary is this coming Tuesday, and there
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: are now just three Republicans left standing. Joining us to
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: talk all things Granite State is New Hampshire Public Radio.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: senior political reporter Josh Rogers. He's one of the smartest,
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: most experienced reporters in the state.
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: Welcome to the pod, Josh.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: Good to be here.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: Give us a little picture of what it's like on
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: the ground. The folks who were in Iowa told me
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: that it didn't really feel like a typical Iowa caucus.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: It felt more subdued.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: They saw less activity from the campaigns. What's it like
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: in New Hampshire? Does this feel like a normal New
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Hampshire primary or something different?
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: It definitely is more subdued. I mean, today, five days
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: before the primary, one campaign event involving a significant candidate,
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: Nikki Haley, had a morning event. That's it. Dean Phillips
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: is going to be at Dartmouth this evening with Andrew Yang.
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: But it's kind of sleepy. And, you know, it's been
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: that way for some time. I mean, Haley's been trying
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: to marshal support and not doing terribly many events and
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: not taking questions from crowds, not really engaging. with the
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: media and the way that people in New Hampshire say
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: is important, whether or not it still is, you know,
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: who's to know.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: Is there anything you attribute that to? I mean, this
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: is do or die for Nikki Haley. If she doesn't
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: beat Trump here, it's hard to see in other places
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: where she does it. So why are people not campaigning
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: at the same level?
• 40:36
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: I mean, she has been obviously trying to build a
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: coalition that could beat former President Trump here. And it's
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: a tough go when you are not the most popular
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: candidate within your own party. And so, you know, the
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: fact that President Biden's not running means that independent voters,
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: undeclared as they're called here, who can vote in either
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: primary are, you know, probably likely to vote in higher
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: numbers on the Republican side. But building your campaign around
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: appealing to those people, and that's kind of what she
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: has to do by necessity in New Hampshire, given Trump's
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: continued apparent grip on the party base, it's hard. And,
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: you know, she's had Governor Sununu by her side and
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: He had been for weeks saying, oh, you know, Trump
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: is done. New Hampshire is going to– we'll take him out.
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: I mean now he's indicating that a second place would
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: be good here. So it's– we'll see. I mean voters
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: can surprise you but you don't feel a huge amount
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: of momentum. I mean Haley certainly had been building momentum.
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: I was out talking to voters yesterday and there are
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: plenty of people who will vote for her. But whether
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: or not she can catch Trump, we'll see.
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: When you go to a Nikki Haley event, who do
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: you see there? Because I know anyone who covers financial policy,
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: you see a lot of the same faces at all
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: these events. Are these established Republican activists? Are they independents
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: you don't normally see? What is that attendance like?
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: It's a mix.
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: I mean, there certainly are a fair number of Republicans,
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: kind of the card-carrying variety, who are not necessarily wild
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: about Donald Trump returning to the White House. But You
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: see some of those people at her events. You see
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: some curiosity seekers. You see some Democrats even who don't
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: want Trump to get reelected or checking out his strongest
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: rival in New Hampshire, at least. But again, in order
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: for her to catch Trump, it does seem that she's
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: going to have to mobilize people who are atypical primary voters.
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: And that's tough. I mean, they've got AFP action out
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: knocking doors. I mean, they believe that the turnout for
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: the Republican primary is going to be record setting. They
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: ought to hope it is if they want Nikki Haley
• 42:45
  Speaker 4: to keep this tight and maybe even win. But there
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: are people checking Nikki Haley out, but she gives a
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: very disciplined, almost rote campaign speech at this point. So
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: if you have seen her before and you're not totally
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: on board, you're not going to see much new And so,
• 43:01
  Speaker 4: you know, I do personally wonder where she may have–
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: whether she may have kind of crested in terms of
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: her popularity some time ago. And the fact that you've
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: had Trump here every other day, you know, really going
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: after her at this point probably doesn't help her with
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: sort of Republican activists.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: Now, DeSantis has been a little– It's not entirely clear
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: what his plan is. He said he was going to
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: South Carolina after Iowa, but then I think he's off
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: the air in Iowa, at least DeSantis' allies are, but
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: he's been there.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: A couple of times. What is the nature?
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: Is he trying to compete there? What's he doing? I
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: don't get the sense he is. He's not spending any
• 43:40
  Speaker 4: money here. His trajectory has been downward for some time.
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: When this race first started, there were some polls in
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: New Hampshire that that showed him beating Trump. And it's just,
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: you know, he's just sort of deflated. He hasn't really
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: connected with voters here. There are some conservatives who like him,
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: but he's not good on the campaign trail. You know,
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: there have been management issues with his campaign and his finances. But,
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: you know, the case he's been making that I'm a
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: Trump-like candidate who is actually delivered is not something that's
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: galvanized the voters he needs.
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: In Iowa, there was a lot of talk, at least
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: before the caucus, that unlike 2016, Trump had professionalized his operation.
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: He had precinct captains in every precinct. They're all wearing
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: these gold MAGA hats to stand out. How does his
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: 2024 New Hampshire campaign compare to the 2016 version?
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, that remains a little opaque to me personally.
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, I've been assured by the campaign that this
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: is really a top-notch improvement and that they were you know,
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: really just running on like, as the state campaign chairman
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: told me the other day, raw energy. And now they
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: believe they've channeled it and they do have a more
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: granular organization and that there are town chairs and county
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: chairs and, you know, they're all in communication. You know,
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: that's remained largely opaque to me. I mean, he had,
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: you know, Trump is campaigning here a lot in the
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: closing days, but he hasn't been here heck of a lot.
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: He has these massive rallies. It draws, you know, fans
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: from across New England. And, but, you know, it does,
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: I am told that they are more organized. They have had,
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: they have the resources. They've had more time. I mean,
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: whether or not he needs to be organized is another question.
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm not seeing any indications that it's going
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: to be really about, you know, flipping the switch on
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: some sort of turnout operation for him. Yeah, I guess
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: the support seems to be there. And More than simply
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: the support seems to be there. There is not kind
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: of the autoimmune response that his rivals hoped would kind
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: of trigger activists to ditch him. That's just not happened.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: You said the Haley folks are claiming there's going to
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: be quote-unquote record turnout. Is that what you expect if
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: you hear anything from state officials about what they're thinking?
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think they're thinking that the Republican turnout
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: could be high given the nature of this election. And
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: it is weird with Trump running. I mean, there is,
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: you know, he attracts people and he repels people. And
• 46:09
  Speaker 4: some of that repulsion will actually attract participation in the
• 46:14
  Speaker 4: Republican primary. So I don't know for sure. I mean, the,
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: you know, I was out there talking to voters in
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: Rockingham County, which is a place where Republicans, you know,
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: tend to rack up a lot of votes yesterday. And
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: you know, I heard as much sort of dyspepsia about the,
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: the coming general election that people see between Trump and
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: Biden as much as engagement in this primary. I mean,
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: I did talk to a fellow who said, you know,
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: he was on the fence, whether he was going to
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: vote to Santa or Trump. And, you know, I talked
• 46:43
  Speaker 4: to plenty of people who complained about their mailboxes being
• 46:46
  Speaker 4: clogged with Nikki Haley mailers, um, and some enthusiasm for
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: her as well. But, uh, there's, there is a sense
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: and we'll see if it's true that, that, you know,
• 46:57
  Speaker 4: there's not going to be much suspense in this on Tuesday.
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: I mean, maybe Haley gets close. I mean, maybe, I mean,
• 47:02
  Speaker 4: it's not impossible that she wins. I mean, given the electorate,
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: but it seems like a stretch. It feels like a stretch. And, um,
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: you know, she doesn't really seem to be going for it.
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: I mean, you know, this is a New Hampshire primary
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: where there will not have been a debate in the
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: entire week between Iowa and New Hampshire. Um, And you
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: don't feel it out there on the streets. Whether or
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: not you need to feel it on the streets, I
• 47:25
  Speaker 4: don't know. There may be ways to mobilize voters that
• 47:28
  Speaker 4: are happening and will be effective. There should be a
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: decent turnout.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that was the big question in Iowa. There are
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: a lot of people were saying, we're not feeling it
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: in the streets. It doesn't feel like 2020 or 2016
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: or 2008 or whatever. But the thought was maybe it's
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: happening digitally, but then turnout was– down 40%.
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: The weather was pretty rough too.
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: This will be a little test of whether the New
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: Hampshire turnout will be an interesting test of whether that
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: was the weather or there was really a disengagement for
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: whatever reason, because Trump's going to win or that'll be
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: a question. Let's talk a little bit about the Democratic side.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: I want to ask you about, there was a lot
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: of thought when the DNC changed the New Hampshire primary
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: and took its delegates away. that that would have a
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: real impact on President Biden in the general election? Are
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: you hearing a lot of blowback towards President Biden over that?
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: I mean, some in the most kind of parochial manner
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: imaginable that, you know, he took away our primary, how
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: could we possibly support him? But, you know, it's hard
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: to know. I mean, I think that, you know, the
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: Biden folks perhaps rightfully make the calculation that the specter
• 48:36
  Speaker 4: of Trump will motivate people to turn out in a
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: way that might be more pronounced than anything they could
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: gin up on their own. But, you know, they have,
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: you know, regardless of the fact that he's not on
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: the ballot here, they have, you know, coincidentally, clearly sent
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: up a number of cabinet officials in the last few
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: weeks to, you know, sort of tout things that have
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: happened in New Hampshire on Biden's watch. The Right in
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: Biden campaign is, you know, bringing in people from across
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: the country, either via Zoom and Skype and the like, or,
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: With real events, I attended an organizing event with Massachusetts
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: Governor Maura Healey, and I will say I was surprised
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: at the number of people who were there, as were
• 49:14
  Speaker 4: you know, party officials who were there. But, you know,
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: we'll see. Like, this is not, New Hampshire is not,
• 49:21
  Speaker 4: you know, it's been a good state for Democrats in
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: general elections. I mean, the last Republican to win here
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: was George W. Bush the first time. And so, it's
• 49:33
  Speaker 4: a state that, you know, Democrats have done pretty well in. But,
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: you know, there are some people who are worried that
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: the trickle-down effect of a lack of organization early. And
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: that's one of the motivations of the Biden people. And
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: they also have this motivation that if New Hampshire folks
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: prove that they are really dedicated to President Biden and
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: to participation and to doing their civic duty, that perhaps
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: the TNC might end up reversing course in the future,
• 49:59
  Speaker 4: which strikes me as far-fetched. But that's what they're telling themselves.
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: And they're saying, New Hampshire are you know, we'll have
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: a story to tell about what happened here. So we'll see.
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, a lot of these folks, you know, the
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: New Hampshire primary is kind of a baby boomer thing
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: in some ways. Like you think about the politicians who
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: their families, you know, the Sununu's, you know, Jean Shaheen,
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: you know, those people in some ways made by their
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: participation in the New Hampshire primary. And for people of
• 50:26
  Speaker 4: that generation, you know, this is a very big deal.
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: One thing I've been trying to figure out whether people
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: who aren't really intimately involved and may even have a
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: financial stake in the primary being first here, how much
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: they care. And it's unclear to me how many people
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: who aren't really involved in politics much care about this.
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: Talk to me a little bit about what Dean Phillips
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: is trying to accomplish up in New Hampshire, even though
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: there are no delegates that he can win there.
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: Well, I mean, he said he's trying to, you know,
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: send a message. And when he, you know, he, I mean,
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: his name does come up. He's been campaigning. I mean,
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: sometimes it's a little pathetic, the lack of response he's getting.
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, but, and, you know, maybe he'd be getting
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: a more of a response if he was, you know,
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: arguing more on a more policy grounds or some sort
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: of like ideological basis why he should be running. I mean,
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: just like arguing about the citing polls that suggest that,
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: you know, President Biden could be weak in November, you know,
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: doesn't seem to be moving people. I mean, you know,
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I mean, you know, Dean Phillips's personal story.
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: I mean, he seems, I don't know. Like when I
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: first met him, I was like, oh, he would be
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: a fine board member for New Hampshire Public Radio. I
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: didn't say, oh, there's a president kind of thing. And,
• 51:41
  Speaker 4: you know, he's out there trying, but it's, you know,
• 51:44
  Speaker 4: it's odd.
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: There's been this, there've been some national stories about an
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: effort among some liberal donors and activists to try to
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: get people to write ceasefire articles. on the ballot in
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: protest of what's happening in Gaza. Have you heard anything
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: about that on the ground in New Hampshire?
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I've heard about it. I have not
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: spoken with enough people to know how much. I mean,
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: the person behind this is a man named Andrew Walensky.
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: He ran for governor a couple years ago. He's a
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: sort of liberal lawyer and activist. And he was a
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: Sanders supporter. He's trying to do this. I haven't done
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: reporting to know how much there is there. But You know,
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: it is an interesting wrinkle. I mean, one thing that
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: our election officials are gearing up for is like how
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: to count the projected number of write-in ballots in a
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: timely fashion. And the Secretary of State has said, oh,
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: you know, Republican results will be allowed to be announced
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: before Democrat results if the counting goes long. I mean,
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: they believe they can count all these things. And I
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: don't know whether, you know, the ceasefire thing will complicate that.
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: In any way.
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: But, you know, it's also hard to know what the
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: perception needs to be for what sort of number does
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: Biden need to get? I mean, you know, obviously, people
• 52:54
  Speaker 4: like to invoke, you know, LBJ and Eugene McCarthy. But,
• 52:57
  Speaker 4: you know, the right and Biden people say, oh, you know,
• 52:59
  Speaker 4: all he needs to do is win. And this is
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: about pointing us towards November, as much as it is,
• 53:05
  Speaker 4: you know, what happens here, particularly given that there will
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: be no delegates awarded per the DNC.
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: Well, as someone who is scheduled to record a podcast
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: after the race is called, I'm glad to know that
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: there's a chance they're not going to let the write-in
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: campaign slow down the calling of the Republican results. Josh,
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us, and we hope to
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: talk to you again soon.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: Good luck.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: Thanks to Josh Rogers for joining us today. Everyone have
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: a fantastic weekend, and we'll talk to you next week. Bye, everyone.
• 53:39
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