Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - ⚠️GET READY: This Week’ Stock Market Game Plan + Stock Market News 28 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - ⚠️GET READY: This Week’ Stock Market Game Plan + Stock Market News 28 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix and, of course, winston, here in its full life force.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Stage.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Today is a tremendously important Monday, and I'll tell you why.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Because so far, for the last couple of weeks, the market has been completely preoccupied by tariff talk.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: There's also recession talk, but what ultimately drives the stock market is not what Trump says or what the Fed says or any of that nonsense.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: It's whether the big companies, the ones that matter, deliver good earnings and optimistic guidance.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: That's ultimately what it's all about, and this is the week where some of the really big boys bring their earnings out, and I want to walk you through those.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: So we're going to kick off here with SoFi, paypal, starbucks, meta, microsoft, robinhood, amazon, apple, airbnb and some of the oil majors.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: And if that doesn't keep you busy enough, then let me share my screen with you for you, so that you can see what I'm looking at here, because after that, we've all got some tremendously important key dates for this week.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: I'm talking the kind of data that really moves the market, and you need to understand that.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I hope you write it down so you walk away from this in the next few minutes as one of the best informed investors out there.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: We also have a Trump and Fed update.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: That's really important and weird.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: I've got the wrong banner here, oh, interesting.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Let me see why that's happening here.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: So I'm getting distracted with my little setup here.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Why does that happen?
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'll change it.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: What is also really important is that I'm actually bullish for now, not for the long term.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: So that's a weird situation you can find yourself in is you're bullish right now, but you're concerned about the longer term, and the week this week really will possibly flip my opinion on that.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: So I also want to give you the reasons why I'm bullish, because I think there's a lot of money to be made right now.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I literally set up about 20 buy orders this morning, and there's a but, though, and the but is an important warning that most people are going to miss that If we get another like couple of green days, everyone's going to be back in la la la.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking everything is going to go up forever, and then they're going to lose their shirt again.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: I want to make sure that isn't you, and then we also will do a big juicy Q&A, so let me.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: There was a hymns ad, was there?
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Okay, interesting, all right, so let me walk you through.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: First of all, these earnings.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: These are all the earnings this week.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Now we're not going to go through all of them, because I think that would be silly, so I've selected what I deem to be the most important, the muy importante ones.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: What's Spanish for most, somebody must know?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Sofi, paypal, and look at Starbucks, why?
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Because it tells us a lot about the consumer Microsoft and Meta.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: And Robinhood.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Because Robinhood again tells us a lot about the consumer Amazon and Apple.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Well, because Robinhood again tells us a lot about the consumer Amazon and Apple.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Well, because they're the biggest things out there.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: And then Airbnb tells us quite a lot about the economy, and then we'll also look at we'll round it off with a little bit of oil which is Exxon and Chevron.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So, if you want to understand these stocks and what's happening this week, we're going to keep doing that here.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: So, mass or mucho?
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Okay, there isn't a mucho mass, there probably is right.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to figure out if I've heard that before.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much for that.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: So, all right, so we're going to kick off a SoFi here.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I've pulled it open in Trade Vision, which is the app that we built to give you guys the best data points, and you understand and you'll see me use this in live action.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I've put a couple of sort of Kandinsky-esque lines on there to make this look like art, but the first thing I wanted you to see is you can actually see in here the earnings forecast.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: So it says here Q1 earnings expectations upcoming earnings on April 29th we're expecting earnings per share to be at $0.03 and revenue at $743 million, which is up very, very significantly.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Now what happens if you don't hit those numbers?
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Well, all hell breaks loose.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: So actually, as a company, you want to exceed the numbers.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: You also want to slightly exceed the numbers Los más importantes.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Thank you, chupa.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: I see I'm learning Spanish.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I'm doing this.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: This is very useful.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: I did speak very little Spanish.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: It was mostly, you know, asking for drinks.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I used to spend quite a lot of my summers in Madrid, which is one of those amazing cities, one of probably the funnest parties in the world.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: I'm sure the South Americans will disagree, but from a European perspective at least.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: So what do we see here?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Okay, a couple of lines, and let me just delete all the lines.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, just so it is clean and clear.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So what have I got open here?
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I've got two indicators open a 50-day and 150-day.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: That's all I've got.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: By the way, guys, everybody who's asked for for custom indicators in Trade Vision, you now have them.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Now, it looks to me like you can't see my full screen, can you?
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: That pesky banner is a little large.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's make it a little bit smaller here.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's a little bit better, so you can see.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Here down here, you can toggle those on.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: You can set your own now, like you can literally do whatever you want with them, whatever period you want, whatever color you want.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: It is up to you.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: And yes, I'm saying investor, I'm not even saying trader.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: So that's your 50-day moving average line, the yellow one, and then, in purple, you've got your 150-day moving average line.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: You need to have those on a chart, otherwise you don't know what the heck you're doing, why.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Well, generally speaking, we want to buy, get a more neutral color here.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: Generally speaking, we need to.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: We want to buy when we're above them.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: So the 50 is here, right, so we're above that one.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: We're this morning at least, we're above the 150, now that I like to close above the 150.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: But this is a very, very, very nice recovery value, right, very nice.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Bounce up here and look at the volume.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Look at the volume.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: The volume is increasing as we're going up.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: There's some real strength in this.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Fintech is back, yay, so this is very good.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Now the next question, of course, you're going to have as well.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: So far, how much is it going to move by?
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: So, on the right here, you click on options and that takes you into the deep, dark recesses of the options world.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: But there is one thing in here that everybody again should understand Stock investors, stock traders, options traders, a lot of you and it's that blue box here.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: And can you see how that actually now says expected move.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: That's the blue box, that's the expected move.
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: So if I extend that blue box onto the chart and we're going to do that as a feature, by the way, because I think it'd be a little cleaner for everybody else to what am I doing?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: I wanted a.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Am I allowed a line?
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's basically saying to you the stock market in its infinite wisdom, by friday this week, is saying that the stock is either going to go up to 1479 or it's going to drop down to 1165.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: So that is what it's telling you.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: Is that useful?
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Yes, can you make money out of that Actually, yes, yes, you can.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, you can set up range bound trades or the opposite of that.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to walk you through options trades here right now, but it gives you quite a good indicator of like what's the market expecting here.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: On good earnings, we're expected to go to about just under 15.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: On terrible earnings, we're expected to go to about 1165.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: You now know more than 99.9% of the stock market, because hardly anybody understands that.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Right, and Scott, you're completely right.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Um, if I use the word one standard deviation though, I lose about 90 percent of the audience instantly.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: But yes, that's what the calculation is under that.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: So it's based on really what the options market expects it is.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: It's real hard.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Data is not something that I sort of conjure up in the.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: You know the comforts of my uh den here.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Not even Winston made that up.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: There he is, he's looking, winston.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Hey, he's actually awake, good boy, all right, so.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: So let's go back to that lovely chart then and let's look at the next one.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Okay, so we're going to look at PayPal here, paypal, as I call it.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: There we go, and again, you know, you can use trade vision down there If you actually want to understand the rules that make me want to buy and sell these stocks and the actual levels I buy and sell them at, and why.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Then again, I'll teach you that completely for free.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: But in the interest of not making this video 15 minutes longer than it needs to be, I put that in a separate video for you, which is 15 minutes long and which you can watch completely for free at felixfenceorg get free.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: You might be thinking well, how does this guy know it?
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Why should I listen to you?
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Well, you shouldn't, but you see, I learned this from a bunch of retired and bank bankers, traders, guys who worked in chicago, in new york, and had done this 20, 30, 40 years.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: These rules have been around since the 70s.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: People have been making money pretty reliably with really solid risk management since the 70s and they never thought they'd share it with people.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Why not?
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Well, I guess they were just too busy making making making money themselves.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: So if you want to actually learn that, then, as I say, check it out because it's really important.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: It literally changes your life completely.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Now quite a few of you guys in in here in the chat I've seen you talking um.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Are you guys finding the rules that you learn from me.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Guys.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Useful if you find them useful, right, right, useful in the chat to all the newbies who are like I don't want to go and watch a 15-minute masterclass, I don't have 15 minutes.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Well, for the rest of your life you could be making a heck of a lot more money than you're making right now.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Maybe you'd find the 15 minutes right.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So now Scott says save my chicken and the bacon, right.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: So, okay, paypal, right.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: What are we expecting?
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: We're expecting here earnings per share of $1.16,.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Revenue of 7.85 billion.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Look at how many useful there.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Isn't that amazing?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Isn't that amazing?
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: That actually makes me incredibly happy, because that's the whole point here.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: So I actually give you stuff that's really, really, really useful, because that's the whole point here.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: So I actually give you stuff that's really, really, really useful.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: So if we look at yeah, so if you guys haven't gone to felix friends at all, get free yet you are clearly missing out, because there's about 100 people who are writing useful in the chat here.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Thanks for the hearts as well.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: So what are we expecting for paypal?
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Well, there is very little positive to say on the chart, because this is a falling knife falling, falling, falling knife and the only thing you could say if you were an eternal optimist.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: I am actually an eternal optimist.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I try not to let it get in the way of me making money in the market.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: That is to likely the near-term bottom Now.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Are we going to retest that bottom on tomorrow, tuesday?
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: No, by the way, for you guys who are playing this back later you can skip through I'll try to put timestamps in for the different stocks, so that blue zone there you're basically expecting to go up or down $5.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: That's really the easiest way that I could possibly phrase this plus minus $5.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It's not that big a deal, but it's also kind of a big deal because it's kind of 8% move for a stock that big.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: It is important.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Now, if we go back to 60, we still are not hitting the low of lows.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: If we go back to 71 up here, we're basically hitting that high there, right?
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: So you can kind of see how the market works, the entire stock market, all the guys who are coming up with these numbers, which is the entire options market, which is about 85% of the market.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: They are looking at the same chart and they're looking at the same rules that I keep yabbering on about, and if you learn them, your life will get a heck of a lot better.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: That's my promise.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: And honestly, you will just never have big losses again.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: It's really avoidable.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: It's really, really avoidable to have big losses.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: So, okay, that's so far in paper, paul right?
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Is that somewhat useful to you guys?
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Starbucks let's look at Starbucks and I like Starbucks because it tells me quite a lot about the American consumer.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: When the American consumer stops driving in some sort of enormous gas guzzling thing that you call a car, I call it sort of a I guess you call it a truck, don't you?
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: And you get yourself a cup of coffee, because making coffee at home is just wrong, isn't it?
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Then the economy is in trouble.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Now Starbucks has also been particularly horrendously managed here, and the usefuls are still coming in, which is cool.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: So we had that flat zone there and what did we do?
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: We bounced about 20 times against this purple line, which is the 150-day moving average line, and that screamed sell.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: That's what that said about 20 times.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: And then, when you guys just stopped, just still hadn't done it, let's just give them a gap down, and then that was another sell.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: And then let's give them a second gap down, and that was sort of the real thing, but generally speaking, bad things.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: That was the early warning signal.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: The real early warning signal was actually up here.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: It was one to about 25, 26, 27, to get the heck out of this right now.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Well, there is a little bit of optimism being established in good old starbucks because we're seeing well, seeing something like this sort of a little bit of an uptrend Now.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Fly in the ointment, fly in the soup, even in your coffee.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like someone spats in your coffee because the volume is going down.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So no one's freaking buying this thing, no one's excited, no one's front running earnings.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: And you know what?
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Somebody always knows something, right.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: So I like to actually look at earnings the day before and look at, hey, what's, what's, what's everyone doing?
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: Because there's usually somebody who knows something, uh.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: But at the moment this is just very, very low expectations, I'd say, and that could be a good thing for starbucks.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: You know we're expecting literally minus 26 percent earnings.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: So they might beat that.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping that they'll beat that, but at the moment it doesn't have a lot of oomph in it.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: It's a bit of a flaccid stock Now going into Wednesday.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Why is Tom Lee predicting a 10-day stock market rally?
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but he's a permabull and he has an ETF to sell.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: It's probably more helpful if the market's going up, but I'm not saying he's got his heart in the wrong place.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: By the way, I think he's probably got good intentions.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: I'm sure he's got good intentions, I'm nothing against him.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: But what I'm saying is what was I saying?
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Well, I think one reason to be optimistic is good old Google.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Google had pretty low expectations for earnings and they really, really knocked it out of the park.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: So that has us feeling optimistic.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: That the other big boys, the other grown-ups well, the grown-ups and the little girls, the other big boys, the other grown-ups well, the grown-ups and the little girls, the other grown-ups.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: I was, of course, in no way, shape or form, referring to anybody related to Microsoft there.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: I just had a random thought.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: I just want to clarify that one.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: The other grown-ups are hopefully going to do the same thing.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Right Now, as you can see here, we've already moved up a little bit in line with Google.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: So we've made it a little bit harder for Bill's little play thing, microsoft I don't know what else you're thinking of and therefore it's a little tougher for Microsoft to deliver the way we expect them to.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: They're reporting on Wednesday 28th, by the way, not on, as we're saying here, the 30th.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: I'll see that we.
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Okay, it's actually correct in here.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: As we're saying here, the 30th.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: I'll see.
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Okay, it's actually correct in here, it's just showing up in the wrong.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: No, it is correct Wednesday 30th.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, cool.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: So what are the expectations?
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look in the news.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: This is all in Trade trade vision.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: By the way, microsoft has set a report uh, expected 3.23, which, uh, and revenue growth driven by azure.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: So basically, we expect azure to do pretty well.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: Um, that's pretty much it.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: Is it a little tougher for them?
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Well, yes and no.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: So there is definitely a bit of a, you know, irresistible resistance line here, which I'm going to make red for you, if I'm allowed.
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: Apparently not, it says no to red.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean?
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Well, it just means that we've hit pretty much the current price point here, actually four times even, and those things create resistance right Now.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: What also creates resistance is where the actual market's positioned.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: So the market's positioned at $400.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: So for Microsoft to knock it out of the park and break through $400, and we have the expected range of trading by the end of the week.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: By the way and I'm going to put a lot more lines in this, just make this into a really fun chart we're expecting the stock to go basically plus 20 or minus 20.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: Fairly big range, not massive, but fairly big range.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Now, if they come in with good earnings and we go above $400, I tell you we're in for a party, and I think that's probably what good old Tom is talking about.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: That Microsoft reporting good numbers will after hours on Wednesday.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: It'll give us an amazing rally on Thursday, unless Amazon really screws it up, which seems unlikely.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: If Microsoft does well, amazon probably will too.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Now the next one on the list here is good old Meta, and that has not had well.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: It's gone up a little bit, but not that much.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: It's still pretty close to the sort of misery lines it's gapping up this morning, which is definitely a positive at 5.57.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: But can you see the enormous gap still to the moving average lines up here?
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: They at like 600.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: So we still have to go up an extra 50 to to get anywhere.
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: For that very reason, the market is pricing in this huge, huge, even expected range.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: So the market's saying we're either from where we are right now.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: We're either going to go up about 45 dollars or, if they disappoint, we're going to literally find ourselves back in the low 500s, sort of 510.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: So you can see why this matters, right?
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: So we're expecting a monstrous move 10 or so for for for meta here.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: So again, the key numbers you can look them up in here.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: What we expect we expect it's also in the news bit here on the key drivers are somewhere, isn't it?
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: No, but it's down here.
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: So we're expecting $5.22, which is only a 10% year-on-year growth, which isn't really all that much.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: So it shouldn't be that hard.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: I think.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: Given that Google's come in with such good ads numbers, you'd expect Meta to come in with similarly good numbers.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: I'm feeling pretty good about Meta.
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: It's more some of the other guys that I'm worried about.
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: Now, what about Robinhood?
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Well, robinhood makes.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: How do they make money?
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: Anybody know how they actually make money.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Robinhood makes money basically on transaction fees.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: So it's a fee-based system.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: Now you say, well, hang on, hang on, they don't charge any fees.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: How do they make any money?
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Well, they basically sell your trades and your data to a lovely organization called Citadel, which is run by the kindest, most charitable, most marvelous people in the world it's all about children's charities and kittens around there and they then front run your trades.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Actually, sorry, that was a misspoke they obviously don't do that.
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: They execute your trades in the in the, in your best interest.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: That's the story.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: So they make money when you guys trade a lot, which is why the app encourages you to trade a lot and it looks a little bit like just a little too fun for a for an investment app.
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: I I would argue.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: But you know they're doing a good job on the on the, on the ui side, sure?
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: So they've had a tough time when markets go down, because people typically don't want to trade or buy things.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: It doesn't feel good when the market's going down, which is ironic because that's the exact moment when you probably should.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: So I know they are spinning out into all sorts of other new products, but we're expecting to come in with 34 cent earnings per share here, which is 45% up on the year.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: Now the expected range on this little bugger is pretty significant.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: So it's in that sort of a zone.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: So we're going to go up or down about $4 or $5 when they report earnings, up or down, depending on how good.
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: This is now.
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: We are exact the mundo at the resistance line here at 50.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Now we're trying to break through that this morning.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: Hopefully we'll manage that.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: There is something in these sort of double bottom things.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Ideally the second bottom would be higher than the first.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: There is a mini third bottom here which is a little higher, but they can be quite powerful setups for an actual rally, because you've shaken everybody out.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Like let me highlight that for you you shook everybody out here, right or even here.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: Then you did a little rally.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: You shook out out here, right or even here.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Then you did a little rally.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: You shook out people again.
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: You did a little rally and then there was very little to shake out.
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: That was left and that's what sets you potentially up for a really, really explosive growth.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: So actually I like the setup.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: I think this is actually really quite a bullish setup from Robinhood here.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: As long as the earnings are decent, I think this thing is going to go back to all-time highs.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: That's kind of what I think.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: Well, I don't know where all-time highs were, at least recent recent highs, which is 66 or something like that.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean you should run out and buy the bloody thing, of course, for me it's just one teeny, weeny position, it is not, you know.
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Uh, it won't really affect me if it goes up or down.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Very much felix for prime minister of canada.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: Good god, um, don't wish that upon me please.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: I like my freedom.
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: I woke up today.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Actually, I woke up quite early today.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: I woke up at 8 30.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: I had an alarm alarm rang today, which never happens, uh, because I had.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: I went to get my teeth cleaned.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Um, there's a really lovely dentist.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: So did that.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Went for brunch at the beautiful five-star hotel, sat there.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: A driver picked me up, drove me home.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: I got with Winston for a bit when is he?
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Here he is and then set up about 20 buy orders and mailed you guys or pinged you guys in the coaching community, my view for the week and the long term, and all my buys and all my entry points and all my exit points and all my stops and everything else.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: And that's been the day really, and it's been rather pleasurable.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: And now I get to go through my favorite thing to do, which is look at charts.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: So life's good being, prime minister, sounds horrible, pope.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm not a Catholic, so that's never going to happen.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: I do like the infallible part, though I think that's pretty good.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Like, no matter what you come up with, you just say I know, but I'm infallible, I'm right, that sounds like a fun thing.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: We shouldn't take the piss out of the Pope.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: So, amazon, bill Gates yes, not quite the same character.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: Amazon, amazon, amazon, amazon.
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: Well, classic kind of long-term kind of down move here, right, something like that.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: We've been going down pretty hard on this one.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: Why, well, china tariffs?
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: They do sell most of the imported cheap plastic that is sold in the US, and a lot of that, of course, is related to well, it comes from other countries, and the thought, therefore, is the Amazon business is over Now.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: The retail business of Amazon isn't actually where the money is made.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: It's got horrible margins.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: Estimates are something like 3% or 4%, maybe a little bit more, not a lot.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: They really make their money with two things, and those two things are anybody, anybody AWS yes, cloud.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: They also make their money with ads.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Yes, the ads business is bigger than YouTube.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: It's a pretty significant thing.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: And then, of course, the retail business has allowed them to get everybody to pay them regularly through things like Prime and all that kind of stuff.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: There are a lot of other businesses that are sort of adjacent to this, but this is kind of where the money comes from.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: It doesn't come from you ordering loo.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Roll on Amazon.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: I saw that the price of plastic woven kitchen towels are going up from $1.20 to $3.30 or something on Shein or Sheen or whatever you pronounce it.
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Real tragedy, shane or Sheen, whatever you pronounce it Real tragedy.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Apparently, also, stick-on foot nails, toenails, are going up about 100% in price, which must be just, I mean, a real shocker to American women and some men probably.
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, does this stuff really matter?
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Do we need $5 jeans?
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: No, I don't think we do.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: But anyway, that's just my point of view.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: So Amazon, I think it's a tremendous business at a tremendous price point and we're trading right now at September prices, at June prices, at April prices.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: So am I liking this?
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Yes, but there is a but.
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: The chart still looks pretty negative.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: We haven't reclaimed the 50-day moving average line or even the 150, and in this latest rally there's been very little volume, so not looking particularly good.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: So the real key for amazon's earnings isn't actually the numbers, it's uh, it's actually upcoming earnings.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Projected earnings per share 1.37153 billion in revenue likely to drive, based on AWS newcomers.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Really, all we care about is AWS.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: The AWS numbers are out of this world and George says not my nails, it really what matters is what's their guidance?
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: Are they saying, look, ai, cloud demand is out of the fucking world and we're therefore going to do really, really well and we're excited about everything else?
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: And e-commerce is going to do tremendously well because people are still going to buy stuff and, okay, if we go into a recession, we'll make a little bit less money on that front, but who cares?
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Which is kind of what I'm hoping they're going to say.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Or are they saying there is a lot of uncertainty in the market and we're worried about the recession and the US consumer and tariffs?
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: It's an ongoing uncertainty, in which case the stock tanks.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: And if it tanks, how far will it tank?
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Well, according to the marvels that we call the options market because we've got that data in here See that little blue box here the expected move, that's it.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: That's where the stock is going to go by the end of this week.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: So it's either going to go up ten dollars, so it's going to go down ten dollars.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: It's about.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: That's about right, isn't it?
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: Something like that?
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: So, basically, plus minus, give or take $10, is the market's expectation for Amazon this week, which is pretty good because it's not like a huge move.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: Is it a little bit more than that?
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: No, it's about.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's a little bit more than that.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: So reasonable expectation for Amazon, I think, which is quite good.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: But that's going to be the real test.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: I think Apple I think everybody expects Apple to come out with the.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: We don't know what the heck we're doing here.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: We haven't actually known since the last chap we had, who nuts out a brain died.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Since then we've just sort of been selling the same phone in different colors and we hope nobody would notice.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: But now all the Apple phone users here are going to go really angry, aren't you?
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: But it's kind of true though, isn't it?
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: They haven't really innovated at all.
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: So what have we got here?
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Horrible downtrend.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: The only good thing is that the low was pretty low and we're fairly far above that, so we're probably not going to revisit that.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: I think we might revisit here the sort of 190 low if the earnings come in terrible On the upside.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: I'd say we're not going to make it through this level here at about 220 that's my guess based on the chart and they are hopefully going to tell us a little bit more about their supply chain.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: So they're planning to move all iphone manufacturing to india by 2026.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: And that's offensive nowadays, isn't it?
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: But people then have a sense of humor, which I also think is offensive.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: So ring the bell.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Oh no, I can't ring the bell.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Winston's camera is hanging off the bell, so I can't ring the bell.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: The new bell hasn't arrived yet.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: If I ring this, it's going to fall on Winston's head, so we're not going to do that, are we, winston?
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: So we look at the live market in just a second, guys.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: So yeah, apple is a big one, but I think expectations are so low it's hard for them to miss.
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: That's kind of what I would say.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: And then, running through very briefly, airbnb We'll have a quick look at the oil majors as the market's about to open and it's going to get incredibly.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: My god, are we gonna do it?
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Airbnb don't even know what the ticker is.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Um, there we go.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Airbnb are, yeah, not a pretty chart.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: It actually looks almost as horrible as the the apple chart.
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: See, that's the trend a little bit of a recovery here.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: Volume is is in the doghouse and we're below all the key moving average lines, which is just horrendous.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: So so we're expecting massive, massive, massive up or down, by earnings about $20 up or down.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: So that's pretty crazy for a stock, that big right.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: That's like 18% up or down.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: So definitely a madhouse.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Why do I want to walk you through the pain of oil majors?
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Because it actually matters.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: It tells us quite a lot about the economy and everything else.
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: They are below their moving average lines.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: They have pretty good support down here at all these lows at about 105 or thereabouts, and then on the way up there's also pretty strong resistance here at about 112.
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't expect huge moves there from the oil majors.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: But I'm going to listen in, or at least read a summary of it here inside Trade Vision, because it's going to tell me quite a lot about the economy and how tariffs are shaping everything up.
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: When is the last time you traded earnings?
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Felix, 1926, I'd like to say German, trying to be funny.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: I know that's offensive in itself, isn't it?
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: Exactly, I completely agree with you on that one.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: So is the market now open?
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Yup, it is.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: Shall, we have a quick look.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Let's have a very quick glance at the heat map.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: And then I wanted to also walk you through the biggest events of the week.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: How are we going to get through it all?
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Today, free market looked like this Tesla up, meta up, nvidia down Amazon up everything else.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Flat, flat, flat, flat.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: Which is not terrible, by the way, because futures this morning look pretty dicey and they've actually turned green.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: Vix is coming down again, which is wonderful, because that's really the one thing.
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: Again, if you're only going to watch one thing today, one thing for the rest of the week, one thing for the rest of the week, one thing for the rest of the month, it is the ticker v I x.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: It's your best friend.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: It tells you whether or not the market is panicking.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Actually, we're up a little bit.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: We're at one percent, we're at 25 that we can kind of live with.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: 25.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Um, we'd like it to go, obviously, towards the 20 zone, but 25 is not as horrific as the 35 where we have been.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: You used to trade earnings a year and a half ago, john.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: No, I know you're right, I know you're right.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Well, it's just earnings.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: For some reason, the market has gotten a lot more volatile, so you get these very unpredictable earnings.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: I think this is another very unpredictable earnings.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: So you get earnings coming in and a massive like $2 trillion stock goes up or down 20% and you're like this is not meant to happen.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: So I like to make my money in a really boring manner.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: I don't like the excitement of it, so I love trading earnings.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: It's one of the greatest trades really ever because it's just, it's really wonderful.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: It gives you a nice little edge and if you do a lot of them, you can make a lot of money.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: But it hasn't really.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: It's just been too unpredictable.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: So Trump adds to the unpredictability.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Basically, vix is too high.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: It's profitable in theory, but it's a 50-50 job right now.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Right, so it's still funny, okay, good.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: And if you're not, if you're not, if you're not entertained, then I would be terribly offended and I will, you know, kick you out.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: That's what people say, right?
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: You know someone makes a joke and they go that's not funny, it's like it's just, you don't find it funny.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: They're like no, it's not funny, it's offensive.