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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 10 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by a bet
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: three six Vibe. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, live from
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: my Tommy John home studio. I'm joined as always by
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: my co host Mike Companion, Mike Badra, my BFF Professional
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Better Simon Hunter, Elosaimon.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: Hello, Chad. How are we doing?
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Dude? I feel like I'm excited for the show because
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: by the end of yesterday, you know, the rhythm is
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: like Monday, we're digging in deep. Tuesday, we're talking about everything.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: But by the end of Wednesday, I've done a lot
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: more research, as have you. By about five o'clock yesterday afternoon,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I just felt like the whole puzzle came together and
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: I had such clarity on every game, and you can
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: see what I put into the app already, Like I
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: put in a bunch of picks yesterday based on how
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: lines were moving and where I thought they were going
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: to go, and what I was seeing in betting percentages
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: and some of the matchup research I had done. I
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: slacked you and Mitch this morning and I'm like, I'm
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: not mushing it. I don't care. I feel strong and
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I feel powerful. That's how I feel.
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: I love the confidence.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Week ten Best Bets Episodes. Simon
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: and I will narrow down our five picks in the
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: presented by Bet three sixty five. Sign up now still
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: wins some weekly prizes Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot Com. We
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: will get into our foxhul We'll give out our Tommy
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: John big Ball's bet of the week. We'll discuss Simon's
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: biggest bets are boosted money line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: Round Robin, and so much more. Bets are rolling in,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: lines are moving, Decisions need to be made. As our
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: volume podcasts, Boss Colin Coward like to say.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: There's a sea of money out there.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet
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  Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. A bet
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  Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older and
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  Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
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  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off. In
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. All right, it is Thursday,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: and like we to do like we'd like to do
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: on Thursday. We'll hear how the wise guys are responding
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: to our Tuesday conversation. We move lines, and the wise
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: guys like to tell us what we're doing right, what
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: we're doing wrong. Simon, it's time four sharp calls.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain range telephone range.
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: Somebody's saying, maybe what you do man, Let's go the
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: biggest disagreement off the top chat.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: I like the rams. The professionals love Miami.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: I'm so glad you said that. And we're like, we're
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: gonna go deeper into that one it's when I was
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: doing my notes yesterday, it was the one like I
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: couldn't wait, it's clear fox Like we can say right
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: now if we're doing that, it's a foxle because I
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: knew the wise guys. Love this game? Go ahead?
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I love it because it's giving me a better number.
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: One of Rams seam I love, so I'm happy for it. Uh,
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: they got the value. I guess at two and a half.
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: That was a good number to them. That was a
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: key number for them. I get the movement and the
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: bed for them, but I just view it as these
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: are two totally different teams going to totally different directions.
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: The Rams last week couldn't have played any worse, but
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: Stafford showed up in a big spot with a big throw,
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: and that's another reason I love them.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: This game.
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: It's just it's really about Stafford and yeah a game
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: like you said, we're gonna dive into it, so I
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: don't want to spoil too much. But man, was I
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: like calling everyone figured out what the hell is going
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: on here? Why is this number moving so much? So
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: that was definitely a shocker. After our show Tuesday, I
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: don't know what I was doing, but I remember I
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: checked up the app, the Action app again, all of
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: a sudden, I saw that it was down to two
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: and then I saw was moving to.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: One and a half. I was like, WHOA, is someone
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: hurt that I missed something?
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: So that was definitely a game that was pretty shock
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: and all the movement on that money on for that
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: Rams and Miami game.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: The next one is the Jets. We talked about.
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: I didn't even know what's going on here the professionals
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: of the Jets. So that's a game we might have
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: to take. I've been I've kind of been talked into
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: the Jets here in this spot at this number. So
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: that's again I'm looking forward to talking to Cowboys. We
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: loved and a half. Still a couple sevens out there.
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: The professionals love that number, especially because a J. Brown
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: might not play. We know how bad that offense is
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: without him. Hurts is banged up, right. He didn't practice
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: this week. Devonte Smith didn't practice either, So there is
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: reason to take this big number with this Cowboys team,
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: even though it is no doubt about it. Cooper rush
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: behind this bad offensive line. So that's that's gonna be
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: a fun game to break down again.
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: When you loved the Colts. Professionals love it. We saw
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: that touch three, three and a half of a couple
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: of books. Now it's back up to four. Still love it.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: If you can get the four right. We talk all
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: the time about key numbers.
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: That seems like that's gonna be a game that's gonna
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: either land right on three or right on four. Right,
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: that feels like a really tough game, especially for a
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: desperate's Colts team. But yeah, that was not that shock
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: and the last one a game I really liked.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: You really like the Saints.
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: No shock here, right, the pros versus shows and this
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: is this matchup. It's kind of the same thing with
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: this Houston and Detroit game, even though we're on Detroit.
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: That's just exact same thing as this one.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: It's all professionals on the dog Home Dog, and it's
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: all the public coming on this really team shocked to
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: no One. So I was hoping this would go up.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: We've seen a couple force pop with this Saints number.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: That would be great for us.
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: I would love to get more value here, just because
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: we both agree this Saints team is banged up.
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: They are not that good.
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: We're really just playing the spot in the number here,
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: So any more value we can get on this number,
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: I feel more confident about it. But at the end
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: of the day, it's it's a nice spot to be
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: to be fading this Falcons team on a home divisional dog.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: So here's what I love. The Jets to me were
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: the Jets were the swing state of this of this
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: particular slate to me, whereas like, bye, you know, we
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: were wishy washy on it.
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: I know, read on it. Honestly, I made Cardinals a favorite.
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: I thought they were the right side. But yeah, I
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: was definitely wrong on that.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: We We're going to go deeper, and by by the
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: end of yesterday, I'm like, I feel like I like
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: the Jets here. So I'm glad we're going to have
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: a conversation about it. The first game up. Let's get
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: into the slate. This was your signmon, says game the
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers at two and a half plus two and
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: a half against Washington. It moved from three to two
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: and a half. As you predicted.
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: We all talked too much. Sharp dues can just see
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: it because sharp dues don't care what you say anyway.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: They just watching. You know what I mean.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised it wasn't part of the sharp
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: calls Rundown. I'm a little worried about it because I
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: love the Steelers. Here it's a public dog. But what
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I do like with this game is forty eight hours
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: ago it was the money was sort of split. Now
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: there's a preponderance of money on the Steelers, and there's
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: more money on the Steelers than there is tickets. So
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: like when we look in the action app, we see
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: the betting ticket percentage difference and we see the money
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: percentage difference, sixty one percent of the bets are on
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: the Steelers, So that's the public is the bets. Sixty
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the money is on the Steelers. So
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: what that tells me is that while all of that
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: sixty seven percent captures the public betting market, there's also
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a lyft because the wise guys
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: came in, which is why the line moved from three
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: to two and a half.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: Simon, there are twenty seven teams in Pro football and
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: then there are the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I didn't throw it in there just because it's
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: not a game that like it's consent, Like all the
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: pros are betting right. I've talked to multiple groups and
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: it just seems like it's it's us and a couple
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: other guys that like this spot where a couple of
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: people are like, I'm either on Washington or I'm not
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: bet this at all, because Washington has been good to
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: the betters, right, Like most pros you talk to, you know,
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: they love this Washington team, just like we talked about
• 8:53
  Speaker 4: we love Washington too.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: But at some point we have to sell at this value.
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: And you know, right now, Jane Daniels, who's five and
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: oh is a favorite against the spread, and straight.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: Up like, come on now, that's it's when does it
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: go the other way?
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: This is insane. I don't think we've seen anything like this.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: I mean, everyone know better than me. I can't remember
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: the last time seeing a rookie do this. Maybe Roethlisberger
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: or someone rain him like that. But to be five
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: and oh from the start of the season like he
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: started game one of the year. It's not like Perdy
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: coming in late in the season on to a great team.
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: This is a guy uplifting this team this season to
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: be five and oh against the spread. You know, eventually
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: the value is gonna be too much, so I agree
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: with you. I was shocked this wasn't a more professional,
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: better heavy thing, But like you just said, the money
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: says otherwise. Seems like there is a lot of professional
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: money coming in.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: So I still like it.
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: But you, like you just said, you probably gonna have
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: to take this at two and a half in the contest, brother,
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: I mean, that's where it's going to be at.
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: And it's like, I really like it still, but a
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: few have other games you like more.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I totally get it, But right now it's the top
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: five for me.
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: I get there.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: It's really going to be the Jets on the outside,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: and we'll see if we there for me. But what's
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: interesting about the Commanders is, and I understand why there's
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: a sentiment to bet on Jayden Daniels we've passed through,
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: similar to CJ. Stroud last year, that all right, his
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: performance is fluky into his performance is real, and he's
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: made what was supposed to be a terrible offensive line
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: look better. He's made mediocre talent outside of Terry McLaurin
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: look better. What's really interesting to me is the Marshawn
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Latimer trade. Not that this is something that moves the
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: line or gives them any more of an advantage against
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: the Steelers team that you know they're outside talent as
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: George Pickens and now Mike Williams. It's because the Commanders
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: are recognizing the new reality of the NFL, which is,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: you've got a high performing rookie on a rookie contract.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: This could be their window. Like the Lions are clearly
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: best in the NFC, but after that, the Eagles, they're
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: competing with the Commanders. The Niners they've been struggling, so
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: the Commanders see like in the standings, they got a
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: shot and they got a quarterback whose window is wide open.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: You go and get the best available talent. Like to me,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: that speaks to their confidence, which also is you know
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: you said the other day you love this commander's team.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: It's hard not to love him for that.
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah, but at the end of the day, like we
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: both love Pittsburgh and it's all about Tomlin and him
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: being twenty six and six straight up against rookie quarterbacks,
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: like he just shines in this exact spot and it's
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: a rare opportunity. It's Tomlin as a dog against a
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: rookie quarterback, so it's I can't pass on it.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Tomlin is a road dog sixty one percent against the spread,
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: most profitable coach in the NFL the past twenty years.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I also think, and I said this on Tuesday, this
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: is the best defense the Commanders have faced. The best
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: the Steelers stats or mediocre, but TJ. Watt, Alex high
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Smith on the edges playing together there, that's easily the
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: best combination. Jayden Danley's face.
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, they're basically not that this game will decide them
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: win the division, but they literally have this game and
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: then they play the Egos in a short week like
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: they could in the next two games basically lock up
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: the division in a playoff spot.
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: If they can perform.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: In these spots, and it's the toughest spot you can
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: possibly imagine. You're going against Tomlin, then you're going against
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: the Eagles on the road. It's it's pretty I mean,
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: we've had high praise for Jane Daniels. I know people
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: talked about MVP. This is literally where he can make
• 12:35
  Speaker 4: himself actual into the MVP conversation. He wins back to
• 12:38
  Speaker 4: back these type of games, and what we perceive is
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: I think he's gonna lose both of them, just incredibly
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: tough spots. It's just this feels like a big, big
• 12:47
  Speaker 4: deal of the tone setter for Washington for the rest
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: of the season.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: These next two games.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Chad Milman will be taking his son Owen to his
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: first NFL game Eagles Commanders next Thursday night.
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: That's sick. That's good.
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: Cool is that?
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: How cool is that?
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: We have a he just turned eighteen. We're going to
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Nix Bowls at MSG Wednesday night. Take the train down
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: in Philly late Thursday, go to dinner with my kid
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: who's in Philly at Drexel. Then we go to the game,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: and then we get up the next morning going to
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: visit University of Maryland and that night going to the
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Maryland Marquette basketball game. Three games, three nights, blowing it out,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: super friend style.
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: Look at you that and your kid miss school? I
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: think the like time I ever miss school is and
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: I was gonna suspended. So prop Steve for being a
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: cool dad.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Dude. It's it's he's a senior in high school. He's
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: applied to all the colleges, like three days, not gonna matter.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Buffalo at in three days to go see three premier
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: sporting events. You gotta do it.
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: Now I'm jealous.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Buffalo at Indianapolis. We just talked about it. This was
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: your second shot, for Simon says, and on Tuesday we
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: were still digging into it. I don't think we had
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: the same confidence you pegged it as Simon says. Really,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I think we looked at it as a by low
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Sell high. We were selling high on the road fa
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: that coming off the last second division win, that puts
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: them in the driver's seat for their division. Basically in November.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: You know, Josh Allen is odds on for MVP. Their
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds are improving. We're buying low on a
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: team that looked really bad against the Vikings in prime time.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: But this line actually got up to four and a
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: half and then it's like it got to four and
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: a half and it was streaking down the second it hit. Yeah,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: four and a half, Like bet three six five is
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: at four, but a lot of places are at three
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: and a half. I now not only like it as
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: a by low Sell high. I like the matchup too.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's playing into your thinking here.
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: Love the matchup and all the other bs off field, right,
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: all those stuff we always talk about the look ahead
• 14:58
  Speaker 4: spot that the Chiefs coming up. I mean, this is
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: like we just talked about the Washington decide in this season.
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: This is like this little run here will decide if
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: the Bills can get that one seed. Right, they got
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: the Colts here, then the Chiefs, then a bye, then
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: they have.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: Forty nine ers rams Detroit. I mean, talk about.
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: An insane, brutal run here, a little stretch for this
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: Bills team. And me and you talk about like this
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: Bill's team. We think they're really good. We've seen them
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: struggle this season against teams that are kind of at
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: the same level as them.
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: Man. That's what this to me will really decide here
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: is are the Colts an actual playoff team or do
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: what we see to start the year was kind of
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: fluking a lot of luck with them because you said
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: it right, they're four and zero. I guess it's spread
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: at home this year.
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: And me and you have been a lot on the
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: I've been on those games and that we always felt
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: like we got away with one, especially that week one
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: against Houston with Anthony Richardson.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: So we we love this spot.
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: It's also this the the whole thing of Flacco is
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: not as bad as he was in that previous game,
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: like that was the worst start we've seen by Flaco
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: in the last two years, including you know what he's
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: obviously doing with that Browns team last year, and looking
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: at the matchup with this Bills team. You can't attack
• 16:03
  Speaker 4: the middlefield. You can run it down their throat if
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: you can establish it, and that's what the Colts.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: Want to do there.
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: That's that's literally what their identity is built around. This
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: team is the basically right down your throat. Once you
• 16:12
  Speaker 4: have the safety step up, they just take deep shots.
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: And we've seen that even Anthony Richardson now Joe Flacko
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: is happy to run that same exact type of offense
• 16:20
  Speaker 4: where it's like, okay, bring the safeties down to stop
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: the run. That's when we'll attack these teams deep and offensively.
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: Obviously we're scared of this Bills team. You know they're
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: going to be able to move the ball. It's ken
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: the Colts keep up with them offensively. I think that
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: can in this matchup. So another game, me and you
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: were just really playing the number. I think this number
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: should be three. It's four to three and a half.
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: We're happy to still take the four if you can
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: find it so.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: Uh you mentioned the offense for the Bills. The strength
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: of the Bills is their rushing game, and Ian Coleman
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: is going to be out. Amari Cooper's you know, has
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: not been playing, so their ability to throw the ball
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: is a little bit diminished. But the one thing that
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: I do think the Colts have been getting better at
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: is stopping the run. Right since Buckner came back. We've
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: seen Stuart Grover Stewart, like how dominant he was against
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs the other night. I do think I'm not
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, but this past weekend he played really
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: well against the Vikings. I do think that's an opportunity
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: for them. And on the flip side, you just mentioned
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: it like the Colts running game offensively, that's their strength.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: Like they are fourth and one yards per play, fourth
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: in rushes of ten plus yards, eighth in rush yards
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: over expected, the number one ranked offensive line for run
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: blocking according to Pro Football Focus. The Bill's rush d
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: is just not very good. So a lot of matchup
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: stuff in addition to the spot, in addition to the
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: public perception, like all the things that we like to
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: bet from public perception to number to match up, our
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: lining up here, I can see this definitely making the contest.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: By the way, By the way, road favorites with a
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: winning percentage of seventy five or more seventy five percent
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: or more the past decade forty three percent against the spread.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: That said, let's not forget this season road favorites are
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: what are they sixteen games over five hundred against the
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: spread this season, best ever the past five weeks forty
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: six twenty nine and one against the spread road favorites.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: So our favorites overall, so like the trends are valuable
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: for historical context, has not been a play this year,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: which has been part of our struggles.
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: It's been brutal, but it's like I always say that
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: I don't want to overadjust because it's like once we do,
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: that's when it comes back around the other side. And
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: that's that's something I tried doing last week and it
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: clearly didn't work. So I'm just trying to stick to
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: it where it's like, can't overadjust, They'll come back around.
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: It's just been a little bit of a fluky year
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: with everything that's going on.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: I think it's worth explaining the idea of adjustment. I
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to make Matt Mitchell's head pop off, because
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: I know he wants us to keep moving. But I've
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: seen like some of these comments, and I do go
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: and like rewatch the shows and I will see the
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: comments in the YouTube channel on that shed No, and
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: like we get stuff on Twitter, and so people are
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: asking like why aren't you adjusting and things like that,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: So bookmakers don't overadjust like you can't and your power rating,
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: just explain for like sixty seconds why it's a bad
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: idea to overadjust based on four weeks six week sample
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: sizes of data.
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: I do say, you do want to adjust, but what
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: you're saying about overadjusting is just your basically just totally
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: throwing out everything you believe in you work on to
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: go with what's happening right now. And we always talk about,
• 20:09
  Speaker 4: like the thing that makes the professionals is better is
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: different than the public better is they don't overreact to
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: small samples. Right, You don't overreact to just you know,
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: three four bad weeks, which is very rare if it happens.
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: I can't totally throw out what's gotten me to where
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: I'm at in life.
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: I'm betting and I can't just throw away all the
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: data numbers.
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: I always use to try to adjust it now, Like
• 20:29
  Speaker 4: I mean you talked years ago, the spread offense totally
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: changed the NFL. I was ahead of it, right, I
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: was using a college model to do professional betting, and
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: it was a big adjustment. Where like you know, guys
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: who have only strictly bet NFL, they need to adjust
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: to the spread coming into the NFL. Like that was
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: a huge change from twenty ten to say twenty seventeen,
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: twenty eighteen. Then we saw the read option came in,
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: which is again you had to adjust your model to
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: these running quarterbacks are running these read options.
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: So that stuff I do.
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: Make adjustment to to the the home field mean you
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: talked about, I made adjustment to that. I moved it
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: down for most guys had it at three. Some teams
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: I only have them at one and a half for
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: home field advantage, like good teams, I make them two points.
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: That's a big adjustment. Us just blindly betting these road
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: favorites because they've been covering too.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: That's too much of an over adjustment.
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: So that to me is the biggest thing of we
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: agree with it. Maybe it's I don't put as much
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: on some of these lines. But it's like like the
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: Rams last week that honestly before that wouldn't have been
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: one of my bigger bets. Right the Rams are on
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: the road in a divisional game against a desperate Seahawks team,
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: But I adjusted this year being like, Okay, this shouldn't
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: just be minus one half, this should be three because
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: these road teams have been performing better divisionally. But on
• 21:44
  Speaker 4: the flip side, you have games like the Saints, which
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: was a total miss right against Carolina, where it's like,
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: that's where I did over adjust that number. I should
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: have made it six and a half. I made it
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: seven and a half. So I was like, Okay, I
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: like this number for the Saints team that was way off.
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: So that's been the biggest issue with me is I'm trying,
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: like you talked about earlier the year, the divisional home
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: dogs have not been hitting like they have before me
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: in the past, and it's been hard not to overadjust
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: to that because it's what's happening this season. I'm not
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: trying to just that basically what happened off the previous years.
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: I am trying to bring into the.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: New data of like, Okay, my old way of thinking
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: is not what it used to be. I need to
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: adjust to what the market is doing right now.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: I'm glad you mentioned home divisional or divisional dogs. I'm
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: glad you mentioned road favorites. We do have a road
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: favorite that we're going to talk about. I love it.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: We talked about it on Tuesday. I love it even more.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: We'll get to that. The next bed up is a
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: divisional game Denver Kansas City. Kansas City is an eight
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: point favorite. We end in hod a bit on Tuesday
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: because of how bad the Broncos looked against the Ravens.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: And excuse me, I feel like we were a little
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: bit bummed because the line was at nine and a
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: half on Sunday when we first talked about it. We
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: were hoping it would get to and I think because
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: of that, we missed a little bit of the take
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: a bite at the nine and a half. This is
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: a Pros Joe's game. The Pros are on the Broncos,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: the Joe's are on the Chiefs. It went from eight
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: and a half down to eight yesterday. It was actually
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half. I bet at eight and
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: a half. It's in the Action Network AAP. It's now
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: at eight. I like the Broncos here. I'm not afraid
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: of it in any way.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: I'm not either. I've come around on it because I
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: was with you.
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: I honestly wanted to be on the Chiefs here, but
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: because I do think the Hopkins addition, it's it's a
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: big deal to this team, like he is. Clearly, once
• 23:41
  Speaker 4: he builds a rhythm with Mahomes, that's gonna be a
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: game shot.
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: Because right now him and Kelsey are peaking like that.
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: Since Rice has got injured every week, Kelsey has just
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: gotten better and more comfortable than Mahomes. You can really
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: tell that, like whatever happened earlier the year, he clearly
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: came not I don't want to say out of shape
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: into the season, but it wasn't the else we all knew,
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: and we all thought it was the age thing. Now
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: we've seen him in good shape, it's it was not
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: an age thing. I mean, Kelsey is back to being
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: a top three tight end. So that that s hesitation
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: of me is that I don't know if the books
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: have adjusted enough to this. I mean, you talked about
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: that bon Nicks was just I don't want to say
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: unlucky against the Ravens, but it kind of felt like
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: they were right, like all the little things that could
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: have gone wrong went wrong for them, and the public
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: racted over too too much to it.
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: So at eight and a half trot, I would would
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: take it. But it's down to seven and a half
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: in a lot of books now.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, I think it'll be interesting in
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: the contest.
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: Right, And at what point do I want to take
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: the Chiefs, Like if this touch is seven, I'd much
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: rather have more money on the Chiefs of the seven.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: I would the BRONC was eight and a half just.
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: Because we did see last week they looked like a
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: young team that had beaten up on bad teams and
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: once they once they played a veteran good team, they
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: did get dominated. I mean, Lamar he could have done
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: whatever he wanted against that defense, Like once he figured
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: them out, it was it was totally over for them.
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: So that's why I'm happy this is not giving one
• 25:01
  Speaker 4: of our five and we don't have to because I'm
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: I did bet the BRONC was eight and a half,
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: But if it does get to seven, that's where all
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: my money will be on this Chiefs team.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: When I was looking at our five, this was this
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: is either last one in or first one out to me,
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: and the Jets are sort of the the replacement.
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd rather the Jets on them.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: I will say Division favorites plus seven seven or more
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: covering it just a forty nine percent clip the past
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: twenty years. We know Mahomes record as a favorite of
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: more than three.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: Short rest too this week short.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Rest more than three tweaked ankle. I was watching some
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: video yesterday, Like at the end of that game, he
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: was really limping. He you know, he was barely moving
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: on that ankle. I know he says it'll be fine,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: he'll be ready. But I also like teams coming off
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: a blowout plus points fifty seven percent against spread the
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: following week, a lot of a lot of trends and
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of on field stuff to favor the Broncos.
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the Broncos, don't. Evan just had a good note
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: in our app. It's like, and they're off ot in
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: a short week.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: It's yeah, that's what I mean.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Man, I had to think of Broncos, don't I.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: Yes, Like I would not be betting the Chiefs here
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: at all. Look, the Chiefs. The Chiefs are dominant. They've
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: won what fourteen fifteen in a row. But they win
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: their games by five or six points per game. You know,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: they're methodical. They are not throwing the ball downfield twenty
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: plus yards explosive plays. That's just not their game. And
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: I agree with you with DeAndre Hopkins. They're a different
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: team with him playing, but he's not an explosive downfield receiver.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: What he is is one more outlet who knows how
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: to play in space and find the pocket to give
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes a target.
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: So he's got like top five hands in the league.
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: Though like that that makes a difference maker for Mahomes.
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: He's got a guy throw it to him. He'll catch anything, right,
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: that's great.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: But to me, the way they're going to utilize that
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: ten yards down the field, ten yards down the field,
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: it's third and eight, there're DeAndre Hopkins for fourteen yards. Right,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: It's not like they're gonna have short drives that end
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: in seven points and they're going to score eight times
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: in a row.
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: So we'll see.
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: Because again, the Hopkins thing was he had this play
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: in that game where he was coming back, he saw
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: Mahomes scrambling and he knew.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: To turn it upfield. And that was his second game
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: on that team, Chad.
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: That's that's like crazy, crazy good, Like I can't believe
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: how good Hopkins is still that he saw Mahomes going
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: out and he left his round and was like, I'm
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: just gonna go deep because Mahomes will give me a chance,
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: and he did. He threw it, perfect ball up, perfect catch.
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: So yeah, that's just that's my view of it. Like,
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: you're right, I'm thinking long term here. I got to
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: just think this week and obviously the Broncos is the
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: play this week.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Simon, just time. Are you ready? It is time for
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: big balls. Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: Great games start with great underwear and Tommy John makes
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: the greatest guy. We need all the support we can
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: get to hold our very big balls on this bet.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints plus three and a half at home
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: against the Atlanta Falcons. Look the line move from three
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: to four. It touched four. I grabbed it at four yesterday.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: I had already bettered at three and a half. It's
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: not a huge surprise that it got up to four
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: and then went back down to three and a half
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: At three sixty five there are fours out there if
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: people want to look for them. This is the biggest
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: luck side of the week in our luck rankings, which
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: you know love Derek Carr. He's lost four games this year,
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: you know, he missed three games during their seven game
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: losing streak. Three of those games they lost to the
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: Chiefs by thirteen. Other than that, they've lost by three points,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: two points, one point. Obviously, one of those games was
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: against the Falcons. Well, this is a team that was
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: so embarrassed against the Panthers. Their most popular player, Cam
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Jordan apologized, apologized, But we're taking the Saints like it's
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: one of those games where it it actually makes no
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: sense to me not to take the Saints.
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: But it's a game you hate yourself because you have
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: to take it. That's how I feel about it.
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: Whereas I don't even you know what I actually don't.
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on this week. I'm loaded
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: up on different kinds of steroids for this cough that
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: I've had for three weeks, and so maybe I'm just
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: feeling more energetic than usual, or maybe you know, seeing
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: the light. Not once have I been afraid to bet
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: the Saints team.
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: Yeah, my only fear of it is just if this
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: turns into a track meet, we're done though, because now
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: we have Derek Carr throwing to backup receivers, Like I
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: really hope a lot of A's back we need him.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: For He's He's definitely not planning, no never, So.
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is just we're we're trusting the number, trusting
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: the spot. But yeah, like matchup wise, when I was
• 30:28
  Speaker 4: diving into a chat, it's not ideal. Honestly, the biggest
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: takeaway to me is that Elena doesn't get pressure. Derek
• 30:34
  Speaker 4: Carr is great when he's not getting pressured. You can
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: run the ball against obviously Stilanta front.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: The fear for me is just that, you know, they
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: just got rid of their best corner on this New
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: Orleans team, and now we're getting Drake London, who's been
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: great this year.
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: So that's like the movement to me is interesting that
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: it even got up.
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: To four because it just shows that there is some
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: professional money on the Atlanta side, where I thought this
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: was going to be a total pros game where it's
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: gonna be all professional money on the Saints. So like
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: you just said that people out there, you don't need
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: a rush to get This is the reason I didn't
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: make this. Simon says either, it's like you don't need
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: a rush got to three and a half. I still
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: think it could go back up to four to four
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: and a half by game time. But this is what
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: me and Chad love to do, like this exact team
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: Like this is like the Lily. The bias of low
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: on this Saints team. They've lost seven straight games, but
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: against a Falcons team that has a big leading in
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: the division, everyone thinks of the best team this division,
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: where I still think the Bucks even though they lost
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: them twice, like if they were healthy, this would have
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: been their division.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: Right. The Bucks clearly were the.
• 31:36
  Speaker 4: Better team this year, but they just haven't had the
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: luck this Atlanta team has. So I'm happy to sell
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: on this Atlanta team, especially this number in this matchup
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: Saints at home, Historically, this is a good spot to
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: take them. And now the factor in the fact they
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: fired their coach, who seems like most of the guys
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: in the team absolutely hated That's just what I've read online,
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: So usually this is a nice spot for us.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: Evan had in his article.
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: I think it's twenty two seventeen against the spread teams
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: after firing their head coach. So we'll take that number
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: at plus three and a half.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: You're not wrong about Derek Carr, like he looks like
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: a decent quarterback if you look just at the stats.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: But as very famous her ferd resident and American treasurer
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Mark Twain once said, there are three kinds of lies, lies,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: damned lies, and statistics. Derek Carr gains a lot of yards,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: does not win a lot of games. That makes his
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: whole career a facade. So we're betting on a guy
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: we hate to bet on, but it's exactly what we
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: have to do in our Big Balls bet of the Week.
• 32:55
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• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All Right, we talked
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: about road favorites, San Francisco six point road favorite at
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. As I sort of did more and more
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: work on this game yesterday, I just loved it more
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: and more love the Niners here. It was at five
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: and a half yesterday. I betted at five and a half.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: It's in the app. I still like it at six.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: I actually don't know if it'll get back to five
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: and a half. Like the public had been betting on
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: the box. It was one of these weird pros Joe's
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: games where the public was betting the box, probably because
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: of how they played against the Chiefs and thinking about
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: the Niner struggles. But the wise guys have been coming
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: in on San Francisco Simon. I got a lot of
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: reasons I like it, but I want to hear your
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: take before I dig into them.
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and actually a few professionals I talked to they
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: take they've taken the Bucks. If you like the Bucks,
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: they've taken them first half. They think that's the spout
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: to take this team because you basically have a four
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: nights team coming off of buy into this matchup where
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: you know this might be McCaffrey's first start of the year.
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: All of it is just if that's where you want
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: to attack this foreigners team, try to attack the first
• 34:29
  Speaker 4: half because you just nailed it. Like, this is the
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: same scenario the Chiefs, Right, it's a team on a
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: short week. They played into overtime, then they had to
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: fly back home to play this match up against a
• 34:38
  Speaker 4: team off.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: Of bye week.
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: So it's like five and a half chat, this is
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: our five. We get five and a half in contest.
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: We put it in and McCaffrey is cleared and he's
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: gonna play, no doubt a not.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: I'd take it. If McCaffrey is.
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: Out again for this game, I wouldn't honestly put this
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: in our contest and this this wouldn't be one of
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: my bigger bets. Like that's how important I think he
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: is to this offense. Because you know, as good as
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: the other guys have done, we always talk McCaffrey is
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: such a difference maker. Even the other day I was
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: watching highlights from them from last season. It was like
• 35:06
  Speaker 4: every time they needed a big play, he was there.
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: Anytime they needed a first down carry for five or
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: six runs to give pretty a short field, he would
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: do it. So I can't wait to have them back.
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: It's obviously a game change of this foty nine ers team,
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: and he nailed it five and a half. People try
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: to find that number, grab it. If he does get clear,
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: this goes up to what six and a half seven
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: If McCaffrey's cleared before kickoff.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: I don't actually know. Like, to me, every indication is
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: that he's playing, and so I wonder if that's already
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: priced into the line a little bit. I mean, it
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: did get up to six and a half, it came
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: back down to six and then five and a half
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit yesterday, so there's some buy it back.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: But to me, it might get back to six and
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: a half on Sunday when people who are you know
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: you and I live in a world where we're tracking
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: this from Sunday to Sunday, we forget that there's the
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: majority of the betting community is not really paying attention
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: to this until Sunday morning at eleven am Eastern, and
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: so it could get some heavy aggressive action when they
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: realize Christian McCaffrey is playing. Like if he is playing
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: and he's fresh against a run defense that is twenty
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: ninth in success rate, which, for those who don't know
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: it basically calculates how much yardage a team gains on
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: each down, so that they gain twenty percent of the
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: yardage they need for a first down on first down
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: forty percent on second down. Like it scales up. The
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: bucks D is terrible at success rate. The bucks D
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: is terrible at lineyards twenty seventh in line yards, which
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: means their D line basically gives up a lot of
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: rushing yards and without getting any contact on the running back.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: So I like McCaffrey against this defense. Over the past
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: two decades, road fades off of a by covered a
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: sixty percent clip. By the way, that number, that number
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: is seventy when the spread is five and a half
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: or higher.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: So when you've got a good team coming off a
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: bye as a favorite, they overperform because they're a good
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: team coming off a bye. So good spot for us here.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: I feel like this is going to be in the contest.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: I do think we'll get five and a half. I
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: haven't looked at the numbers yet, but.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, say now you've convinced me.
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: Now, if we can get the five and a half
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: and then Sunday McCaffrey is playing, this is a guaranteed
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: to be one of our five.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, and I think like it hasn't been
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: at six and a half enough that it'll be at
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: six and a half in the contest, so I think
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: we'll get a good number there. Uh, this is to me,
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: this is a this is the inter and out game.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: New York Jets plus one at Arizona at bet three
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: six five. I will say most places have the Jets
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: as a one point favorite. We had a long Jet
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: chat about the Jets on Tuesday. They were dogs at
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: like one and a half, so we missed that. But
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: over the course of twenty four hours yesterday, I just
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: decided the Jets with the side I get. Everything made
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: sense to me, even as like a one point favorite.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: I know we hate betting against the line flip, but
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: we did it. You know we've done it. We did
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: with the Rams last week. I just think the Cardinals
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: are streaky. They've gotten the right teams in the right spots.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: The Jets have had pen days. I think they're the
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: better team.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I do.
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: I told you ive Arizona is slightly better, graded higher
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: and I do the Jets right now. I'm my model,
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: but as the human my view of it's kind of
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: the same thing. Like thrown out all the model and
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: everything out. Like you just talked about, I feel like
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: the Jets on paper and just visually are the better team.
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: They've just been unlucky this season where Arizona has been lucky.
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: That's why obviously they have so many more wins.
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: And this is another telling line where I was way
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: off on it and maybe I haven't adjusted enough to
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: devant the Adams coming over. Right, that's obviously a big
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: deal to this team. And we'll see how Rogers does now.
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: Back to back weeks. You know, he was banged up
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: coming to that game. He got a little more banged
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: up on Thursday. I saw you an interview the other day.
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: He said he's fine, he's feeling great. I mean, that's
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: just football talks. We really don't know. But yeah, looking
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: at this matchup on paper, there should be a great
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: matchup for the Jets.
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: Offensive.
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: The question is defensively a team that struggles against the run.
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: That seems like that's Arizona's identity this year, right, they
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: kind of just been running the ball down team's threats.
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: I mean Kyler Murray, he might be second or third
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: in the league right now, and rushing for quarterbacks He's
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: been great running the ball as well, so there are
• 39:43
  Speaker 4: obviously his ways for Arizon to attack it. But you
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: just nailed It's like, isn't this peak Arizona? Haven't they
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: just been on this insane around these last couple of
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: weeks where they've won a bunch of close games and
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: they just blew out that Bears team on the at home.
• 39:56
  Speaker 4: Now this is the letdown spot, right, Like, isn't this
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: where they kind of have that where the Jets they
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: can't afford it. They're probably the most one of the
• 40:02
  Speaker 4: most desperate teams in football right now. They know every
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: week is basically a playoff game, so we can ride
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: it with the pros.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: We can bet it.
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: I honestly have a small bet on this so far.
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: Like you just said, it was really about being the
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: plus one. It was like, okay, I'll grab the plus
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: one now before it does flip. It hasn't even moved
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: since I bet it yesterday. Like it's still you can
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: still get the plus one out there if you want it.
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: But like Chad said, most books now have the Jets
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: as a favorite.
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: All right, well it's on the list. We got six
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: games on the list right now. PHILLYO Dallas. Dallas is
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: a seven point dog right now. This was my exec decision.
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: When it was at seven and a half, I had four.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: I was interested in heading into Tuesday Dallas, New Orleans,
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: Denver and the Jets, And at the time I chose
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys largely because of the number, and being at
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: seven and a half was like my own little version
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: of Simon says. The Jets were just confusing us Saints.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: We're only at three of the Broncos. We still kind
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: of hoped it would go up. So I grabbed Dallas
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half. It's moved to seven. I'm
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: hopeful Micah Parsons plays. Gotten every indication that he will.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: AJ Brown I think is going to play. You had
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: mentioned AJ Brown. He practiced yesterday, looked fine.
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: So I.
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: To me, this is a spot we're playing. The number
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: got the half point. I don't think this is a
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: contest play. I don't know that we'll get seven and
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: a half in the contest. It's a hook and their
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: spot is a bigger division job.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we talked. Hurts has struggled on the road in
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: his career. He struggled as a big favorite as an
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: Eagles fan, I don't think we've ever won in.
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: Dallas with Hurts as a quarterback. I could be wrong,
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: is that right, Evan? I'm not sure, but I don't
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: think he's ever won in Dallas. And that's obviously Dallas
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: have some great teams, and they're not a great team
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: right now. But there's something to do that in these
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: divisional games. And you said though the base it's just
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: playing the number seven and a half is just too
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: much for this Eagles team that just keeps letting teams
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: get back in the game, doesn't matter if the team's
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: good or bad. They find a way to kind of
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: shoot themselves on the foot and let these teams come
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: back in. And looking at this matchup, obviously Eagles across
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: the board are a much better team.
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it Hurts is over three in his career.
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: In Dallas, but at seven and a half, I don't
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: mind taking the number. I bet this number six and
• 42:33
  Speaker 4: a half no play for me, would not put in
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: the contest.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: I agree one hundred percent it's going to be. I
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: don't have this making our final five right now. We'll
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: see what we get in the contest. If it's seven
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: and a half, it might make it a harder conversation,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: it would.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: Like I'd much rather put the Rams or Detroit over this.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Uh good, you know what. I'm glad because I don't
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: want to. I don't want to put it on the
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: line with the Cowboys. I like the seven and a
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: half number. I'm glad to have made it an exact
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: decision and made it it will be.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: Our divisional dog in the Saints. We don't need two
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: of them exactly.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: All Right, you just mentioned Detroit three and a half
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: point favorite over Houston. Yeah, I don't know. I like
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: this game. Worries me. I know we were talking a
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: lot about Detroit on Tuesday. From a betting point of view,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: it's really got to be at three. I think we
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: need to show some discipline here. Nicocollins is eligible to
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: come back. Wow, he didn't practice yesterday, but they did
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: run him through all these physical tests. They had him
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: running twenty miles per hour on a treadmill. That's deep
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: research right there. That's what I'm bringing to the podcast, Okay,
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: spending my time trying to figure out our key player
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: is going to play, bringing it to our audience. Will
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Anderson did not practice. We both know this was a
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: different team against the Jets. As soon as he went out,
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: they were winning, and then they lost. As I keep
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: looking at this game, my biggest fear for betting the
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Lions in this game is their rush defense stopping Joe Mixon,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: who's just he's playing pissed four straight games one hundred
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: yards in a touchdown ever since he came back from
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: an injury. If Nico is back and Joe Mixon is
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: doing what he does against a middling Lions rush defense,
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: that feels like a recipe for pain if we're betting
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: the Lions.
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah, but this also feels like when you talk a
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: lot of time trying to catch a falling knife. It's like,
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: we know Detroit's gonna get burned eventually, Like they can't
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: keep up the space. But we had two straight weeks
• 44:41
  Speaker 4: of their offense putting up what two hundred and fifty
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: yards against Tennessee.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: They're special teams at for him.
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: Last week, same thing, they put up like two fifty
• 44:48
  Speaker 4: seven or two hundred and fifty fifty six, I forget
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: what it was exactly, but they shirted offensively, their defense
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: showed up, and defensively, they've been one of the best
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: teams on third and fourth downs in the like they've
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: really shut teams down, even after they aiden Hutchison injury.
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: You know, their defense is being able to attack this
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: Houston team, like you just said, like they have a
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: bad offensive line. Yes, their biggest weakness is gonna be
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: against the run. But if there's no Nico Collins, why
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: would they not stack the box if they know that's
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: what they're going to need to do here with Houston.
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: So Detroit breaks all the rules like golf, We've never
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: seen anything like this. How he basically every week is
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: the public favorite, biggest public bet, and he just covers.
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: And it's not just because of him, it's the whole
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: team right now, they're just playing at such a high levels.
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: So your hesitation is warranted. I want to be under
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: I wanted to be on Houston and coming into this
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: it's like another week of trying to fade this Detroit team.
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: But I think last week was just a much better
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: spot and that is where I wanted to do it.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: And this one it's like I told you, I got
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: this line a little higher. I think there's value three
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: If you're scared off, you don't want to put it,
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: and I get it. But yeah, I actually still like
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: Detroit at this number in the spot, and it's really
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: like you just said, we'll no Will Anderson, no Nico Collins.
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: This will become one of my bigger bets.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: Sunday Football is a physical, violent game, physical travels. Right.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: The reason why we've loved the Lions all year is
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: because we love their offensive line, like it's just something
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: that it's not. Offensive lines are not streaky. No, the
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: way quarterbacks are, the way receivers are, the way running
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: backs can be. Offensive lines are consistent. That's what you're
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: betting on. I think that's why we fall in love
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: with the Lions and why we back them in certain spots,
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: even when that was sort of chalky. I think there's
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: too much running against their defensive line as a run
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: stopping team to make me super super comfortable. Miami at
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Rams, It's time to explain yourself, mitter Hunter.
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: What do you mean by that? Why do I like
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: the Rams?
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: Like this is a This is a pros Joe's game,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: and we are decidedly on the public team. The number
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: has moved aggressively in the direction of the Dolphins. Maybe
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: one of the biggest moves of the week. You know,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: other than Denver in Seattle, Denver and Kansas City which
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: moved from nine and a half down to seven and
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: a half, there haven't been games unless there have been
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: injuries that have had massive moves like this.
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: So what you're thinking, Yeah, and clearly there's professional but
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: a result. I just do not simply believe in this
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: Rams team.
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: They bought heavy on them against that Vikings team, a
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: spot I loved the following week against the Seahawks.
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: They were not on our side. They were all in
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: the Seahawks. I mean that number went.
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: From two to two and a half all the way
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: back on a one to one and a half. I
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: kickoff like money came in very late on that Seahawks
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: team looked like it was a.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: Pretty good read.
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: Right Stafford did not have a good game, and then
• 47:50
  Speaker 4: we got to pick six from Gino and then insane
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: overtime touchdown to get us that cover. So we know
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: fortunately were But I look at this Rams team, it's
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: just aren't they the better team. I don't really get
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: the line movement here where it's like I get it
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: too as desperate, the Rams not gonna be as desperate
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: as Miami team coming off the divisional game. But Evan
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: has a bunch of trends at point two, it's actually
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: nice to play this Rams team after that divisional game.
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: McVeigh eleven and seven against the spread after playing divisional
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: games after a win, and uh, you know this is
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: another matchup of this. This Miami's defense is terrible. Like,
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: who like Ramsy's gonna shut down Cooper Cupp or Pooka.
• 48:31
  Speaker 4: I don't think so, Like, I don't think he's the
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: same guy we think of in the past. And we
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: know their run defense has struggled as well. So maybe
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: the review of it is this is a shootout and
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: that's why they took the two and a half, and
• 48:42
  Speaker 4: it's like Miami's gonna be able to stay in this game.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: But I still think their offense is off.
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: And yeah, two had that great last drive against the Bills,
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: but overall in that game, didn't really feel like that
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: was the Miami team of old, right. That feels like
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: they were lucky to be in that game against the Bills.
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: So I have no issues here, but there's clearly a
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: blind spudyer or I just maybe love this Rams team
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: too much and that the professionals are making a good
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: read here on taking the Rams, I mean taking Miami,
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: especially at plus two and a half.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Simon, you and I.
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: We're in the foxhole, you know me, regardless of what's
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team,
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: I'm with you on the Rams. I love the Rams.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: I like the Rams not because of Cooper Cup and
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: Pookin Naku and Matthew Stafford. I love him because of
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: Kyrin Williams. And I love him because Sean McVay runs
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: so much motion and at the end of the day,
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: he's a coach who just wants to run the ball
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: up the middle. And in Kyrien Williams, he's got a
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: guy who's gaining four or five six years per carry
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: against They mind the Dolphins defense that isn't very good.
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: And to your point about the Dolphins offense against the Bills,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: that was a Devin h And drive that won them,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: that got them into that game and tied them in
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: that game against the Bill. So I like everything you're
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: saying here. I like it even more that we're getting
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: a much lower.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: Number getting grave value now in the Rams of this.
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: Great value on the Rams like, I could see the
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: Rams making it in here into the contest for sure.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: I could see them getting in there for me over Detroit,
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: possibly over the Broncos. If the line is seven and
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: a half. We'll see, we'll see. That's exciting. I felt
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: good about all of them today, though I really did.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Each week Simon, we give out a two team money
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: line underdog parlay Bet three sixty five boost the odds
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: and highlights it on their site all week and long
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: under both game pages. And remember, both games will be
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: eligible for bet three six five's early payout promo, where
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: your money line pick gets marked as a win if
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: your team takes a seventeen point lead, even if they lose.
• 50:47
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• 50:52
  Speaker 1: you want to bet this, bet it at bet three
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: sixty five. This week's boosted parlay is Steelers and Colts.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: Find the boost under either the Steelers or Colts game
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: pages on bet three sixty five. Let's talk about our
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: money line underdog round Robin h there will come up
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: pay day, Holla, lou Yo, wanna pay day.
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: There will come up.
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: Payday someday some day there will come up payday.
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: Holla, lou Yo, wanna payday? I will come up payday
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: some day.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: These are my entries. Tell me if you feel differently ready,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: Steelers yep, Saints yep, Colts yeah, Texans mm hmmm, I'm
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: gonna disagree. Gimme, gimme, gimme.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: How do we not go? I mean, I know this
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: is we just talked about it, but how do we
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: not go?
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Cowboys interesting?
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: I want to go with a big one. We've seen
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: some of these big spreads come through. It feels like
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: this is the type.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: Of game that no one sees coming.
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: And the Eagles pope of upset right now in the
• 52:14
  Speaker 4: Action Network ap less than nine percent of the money,
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: and the bets right now in the Cowboys money line.
• 52:20
  Speaker 4: So this is definitely no one's gonna be joining us
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: here unless they listen to this show.
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Who's your fifth?
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: I want to do the Jags. That's clearly gone now
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: that Mac Jones is going to be the starter.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: I had it on the list off because of Trevor.
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for those.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Who don't know, Trevor Lawrence is out. It's gonna be
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: Mac Jones starting for the Jags against the Vikings.
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: I want to do the Panthers, but I talked about
• 52:46
  Speaker 4: I don't do international games on the dog, so that
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: that's unfortunate because that number is now up to two
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: plus two forty on their money line, the Carolina Panthers,
• 52:53
  Speaker 4: which is insane that it's got up that high.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: I'm taking the cheap way out, chat. I was gonna
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: throw the jetson.
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: I mean right now they're minus they're even money basically,
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: and that can that technically works for a money line
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: around Robin all right, I.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: Can take I was gonna say, we can do the
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: Jets or like we could also do the Dolphins, but.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: No, don't do it to me.
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: One the biggest one is if the Cowboys come through.
• 53:15
  Speaker 4: That would be you basically just need to go two
• 53:18
  Speaker 4: for three on this thing to get money, because that's
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: how big of a dog right now the Cowboys.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: Are all right, who are your biggest bets right now?
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah, right off the top, Pittsburgh plus three if you
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: can still find it, love it.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Obviously, the Giants at five and a half.
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: It's gone. So now that's not gonna be one of
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: my bigger bets. It's up to six and a half.
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: Colts right now. Them in Pittsburgh. I would say my
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: two biggest lines on waiting on Detroit. That's gonna be
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: my bigger bets, depending on who's healthy for Houston.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: Rams will probably get up there because it is the
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: money night game.
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: And then obviously we just talked about it, this forty
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: nine Ers team at five and a half, six even
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: McCaffrey gets cleared and he's good to go. Even had
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: six and a half, I would still be pritting this
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: pretty heavy on Sunday.
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: So as long as it's below seven for that forty
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: nine Ers game, I really love that matchup this week.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: Biggest bets Colts, Steelers, Rams, waiting on Detroit, waiting on
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: San Francisco. When all hope is lost, all that's left
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: is relief.
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: Let's play Scoots Roulette.
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: Simon, you're six and three and Scoot Roulette. I am
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: not who is your cruelette pick? I have two listed
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: in the script. I am hoping you don't choose either
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: of those. I will choose the opposite if you do.
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, I want to go Colts or Pittsburgh, but
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: I feel like I need to trust my brethren on
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: my big miss this week, and I'll go with the
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: Jets minus one or plus one whatever.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: Wow, you're getting bullied into a scoot Rulette pick.
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: Well, I want I want to give out something that
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: I already haven't given out. So I'm hoping people maybe
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: this pushes them over the edge to take this Jets
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: number here and trust the professionals.
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: My choices were between San Francisco and the Colts, and
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: I'm going with the Colts. I mean, I'm I'm going
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: with the Niners. I'm going with the Niners. The only
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: reason I said Colts is because that's the first team
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: name that I saw when I was in the script.
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: And I'm going with the Niners. All right, scoot Roulette,
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: you're on the Jets. I'm on the Niners. Before we
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: get out of here, let's bring in Director of Research
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. Make us feel better about everything we've said.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Please the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.
• 55:41
  Speaker 5: You guys going back and forth on which picture, liking
• 55:44
  Speaker 5: which picture throwing away? This is just going to be
• 55:45
  Speaker 5: so much fun. But on the tip of the tongue
• 55:47
  Speaker 5: right now is Mac Jones. So I did look up
• 55:50
  Speaker 5: a few things as I was kind of doing things
• 55:51
  Speaker 5: on my own here. Mac Jones three and fifteen against
• 55:55
  Speaker 5: the spread as an underdog, and his last eighteen starts.
• 55:57
  Speaker 5: Now that line is up to about six and a
• 55:59
  Speaker 5: half right now now, and I was trying to get
• 56:01
  Speaker 5: a good comp from Mac Jones. So since twenty twenty two,
• 56:04
  Speaker 5: he has the EPA per play of Josh Dobbs, he
• 56:07
  Speaker 5: has the completion percentage over expected of Bryce Young, and
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: he has the success rate of HAYLEB Williams. I'm sorry,
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: but that is actually what it is, and I apologize
• 56:17
  Speaker 5: for that.
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: Okay, let's go into the funeral.
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: That was a low blow.
• 56:21
  Speaker 5: I honestly, when I saw it on the screen, I
• 56:23
  Speaker 5: was like, oh, well, this is exactly what has to happen.
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: But I apologize Tomlin as a dog. We understand that,
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: we've heard that millions of times. I took another layer
• 56:30
  Speaker 5: into it, which I thought was kind of interesting.
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: Lets the greatest of all time, look at you work.
• 56:35
  Speaker 5: So how does he do against stopping elite offenses? He
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: is twenty one fifteen and one against the spread, fifty
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: eight percent versus opponents, averaging twenty eight plus points per game.
• 56:44
  Speaker 5: When he's a dog in that spot, he's fourteen and
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: seven against the number and because I was curious, even
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: without Big Ben, that's still four to two and one
• 56:51
  Speaker 5: against the spread, because I know a lot of those
• 56:53
  Speaker 5: numbers are juiced because of it. So kind of interesting.
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: You guys have been flip flopping back and forth a
• 56:59
  Speaker 5: little bit with that Eagle Dallas line, a little scared
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: of what's going on if you do land on Dallas.
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: This is probably the reason why you'll get the cover.
• 57:06
  Speaker 5: So last two seasons, when Philly is a favorite and
• 57:09
  Speaker 5: leads by ten plus points at any point in the game,
• 57:12
  Speaker 5: they are still just five six and two against the spread.
• 57:16
  Speaker 3: They are the only team in the NFL below five
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: hundred ats in that spot after leading by ten plus
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: points as a favorite, So something usually happens. They make
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: a dumb mistake, Dallas gets back in the game, see
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: what happens, and I'll leave you with one more. This
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: is simply just a numbers play at four because I
• 57:33
  Speaker 3: knew you guys were interested in Indy. Trying to figure
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: out a reason why Indy might cover this game isn't
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: exactly easy when they don't do a lot of the
• 57:41
  Speaker 3: things right that Buffalo does. But let's just put it
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: this way. INDI's played eleven straight games decided by one score.
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: INDI's played sixteen straight home games where the line is
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: under four either way, so three or less either side,
• 57:56
  Speaker 3: sixteen straight. They've played six in a row at home
• 57:58
  Speaker 3: one score of sixteen one score, so at four it's
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: a very, very valuable number. I don't think there's anyone's
• 58:06
  Speaker 3: going to tell you differently, and I know Chad's going
• 58:08
  Speaker 3: to be like, this doesn't matter, but I did find
• 58:10
  Speaker 3: it interesting. Historically, Indy isn't the easiest place to play
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: for good teams sixty six plus plus win percentage going
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: into Indy culture thirty fifteen and one against the spread
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: last twenty years and three and oh against the spread
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: last three seasons, so kind of working both ways. Difficult
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: place to play, that's a situation for us.
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, I'm gonna take it because it's confirmation biased,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: but really historical context for teams.
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: Who cares correct correct. But I liked it, and I
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: added it, and I knew I get that feedback, and
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: I love it.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: Everything about that Eagles stat just says, wow, is Nick
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: Sirianni a terrible, terrible in game coach? That is that
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: is that that's honestly what we're betting on. We hate
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy. We don't think he's very good either, and
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: he doesn't have any players right now. But we're really
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: betting against Nick Siriani being able to make the right
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: decisions as the game goes on if they have a
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: big lead. As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented
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• 59:54
  Speaker 1: and I will return with our next episode of The
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: Favorites on the Action Network. You two page Sunday night,
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: seven thirty Eastern to recap NFL Week ten. Download us
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