Latest / Toadstool Sports / Cubs/Reds MLB + NFL + NCAAF + WNBA Playoffs Best Bets Thursday 9/18/25
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:06Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:09Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:12Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five.
- 0:15Speaker 2: I don't even know.
- 0:16Speaker 1: What to tell you about that.
- 0:18Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
- 0:20Speaker 2: never seen anything like this.
- 0:22Speaker 1: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
- 0:26Speaker 1: good day at all. Own four that have not had
- 0:31Speaker 1: a good season. Man with wookends slump that I'm on,
- 0:36Speaker 1: and the slump continues, I've reached a new peak. Actually,
- 0:41Speaker 1: I'm going to burn my browins hat man, I don't
- 0:43Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins. March eight?
- 0:46Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
- 0:48Speaker 1: March ninth? I think who even knows? Man, I don't
- 0:52Speaker 1: know what day is anymore. I don't even know what
- 0:54Speaker 1: data is anymore. Man, back with you after the worst
- 0:58Speaker 1: day that I could possibly have, Back with you as
- 1:01Speaker 1: I always am until I die at least oh and two.
- 1:05Speaker 2: Yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
- 1:08Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:12Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this I don't know what to
- 1:14Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. Slump, The slump discontinues,
- 1:19Speaker 1: the slump continues.
- 1:21Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:23Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
- 1:26Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up, Everboddy? It's
- 1:34Speaker 1: sowed back with you that are off dead. Thursday, September eighteenth,
- 1:41Speaker 1: lose the track of the datus Man. Everything's a plorer.
- 1:43Speaker 1: I don't even know what's going on. Probably gonna lose
- 1:45Speaker 1: my house, you know all that shit. Uh. We've been
- 1:49Speaker 1: winning on the show recently, though. Two and one yesterday
- 1:52Speaker 1: not bad. Mets did not get there, so that was
- 1:56Speaker 1: the one loser. Unfortunately, it was a moneyline favorite, but
- 1:59Speaker 1: I'll able to get there with the other two, so
- 2:01Speaker 1: it was a winning day Kansas City. We got the
- 2:04Speaker 1: win with that one, and we had the under in
- 2:08Speaker 1: Philadelphia and Dodgers for the first five innings. The full
- 2:10Speaker 1: game also went under. Snell really good performance from him
- 2:15Speaker 1: and Lozardo was good enough kept us in. All three
- 2:18Speaker 1: runs in that game were scored in the first five innings,
- 2:20Speaker 1: but we had the under four it still went under
- 2:23Speaker 1: in the first five. Full game was an easy under
- 2:26Speaker 1: actually kind of surprising to me because the bullpens, as
- 2:30Speaker 1: I pointed out on the show, are not very good.
- 2:32Speaker 1: We'll move on to today. Today it's a Thursday, so
- 2:35Speaker 1: we have a lot of different sports in action, but
- 2:36Speaker 1: it's a short card in every sport for the most part.
- 2:40Speaker 1: I'm gonna have one play on the entire thing, and
- 2:42Speaker 1: it's in baseball. As you know, odds are would be
- 2:47Speaker 1: in baseball because there are I think are ten baseball
- 2:49Speaker 1: games and there are fewer of every other sport here.
- 2:53Speaker 1: But we could dive right into it. Man, it's time
- 2:56Speaker 1: for the breakdown. Let's do it all right, Let's get
- 3:04Speaker 1: right into it. We do have WNBA playoffs here. This
- 3:08Speaker 1: is gonna be game three of two different series here
- 3:10Speaker 1: that are both tied one to one. Indiana and Atlanta
- 3:15Speaker 1: is the first game up as this series shifts back
- 3:17Speaker 1: to Atlanta.
- 3:17Speaker 2: The home team has won both games.
- 3:20Speaker 1: Indiana was able to tie the series, even though again
- 3:23Speaker 1: they don't have Caitlin Clark, they don't have Sylvie Cunningham,
- 3:26Speaker 1: and they won rather easily at home seventy seven to sixty.
- 3:31Speaker 1: But if you look at this game, I think it
- 3:33Speaker 1: was a bit of a statistical anomaly im and in
- 3:35Speaker 1: Indiana did shoot fairly ridiculous from three point range forty
- 3:39Speaker 1: two point one percent.
- 3:41Speaker 2: That's probably not gonna happen again.
- 3:42Speaker 1: They actually lost the turnover battle and still won, which
- 3:45Speaker 1: is really ridiculous. I mean that indicates there was something
- 3:48Speaker 1: else going on. And yes, they did dominate the rebound battle.
- 3:51Speaker 1: But Atlanta had a very very bad shooting game thirty
- 3:54Speaker 1: seven point nine percent from the floor twenty six point
- 3:58Speaker 1: three percent for three, So you're probably not gonna see
- 4:00Speaker 1: most of that happening again in this one, probably. Uh.
- 4:04Speaker 1: I mean, if Indiana came and win the turnover battle
- 4:07Speaker 1: at home, that doesn't bode well for them back on
- 4:09Speaker 1: the road. Uh, Indiana, excuse me, Atlanta should win this game.
- 4:14Speaker 1: I mean they're up against a shorthanded Indiana Indiana team.
- 4:17Speaker 1: I think this is the end of the road for
- 4:19Speaker 1: Indiana here. It's just a matter of Isn'tlanta gonna cover?
- 4:23Speaker 1: They're up from six and a half to seven here,
- 4:25Speaker 1: so you're actually getting a little bit of a shorter
- 4:27Speaker 1: number than you out in game one. Atlanta was like
- 4:29Speaker 1: seven to seven and a half in game one, so
- 4:31Speaker 1: it's it's close fifty percent of tickets around Atlanta fifty
- 4:35Speaker 1: percent of the couch on Indiana, though the money seems
- 4:37Speaker 1: to be kind of coming back and taking the underdog
- 4:40Speaker 1: here not gonna be a play for me. Uh, I
- 4:44Speaker 1: would slightly lead to Atlanta just because I think the
- 4:47Speaker 1: stats in the last game kind of indicate that you
- 4:49Speaker 1: should see some regression progression back to some sort of
- 4:52Speaker 1: mean here and then like, there's no way Atlanta shoots
- 4:55Speaker 1: this that poorly again here, probably no way Indiana shoots
- 4:59Speaker 1: that well from three points range again, So will Atlanta
- 5:02Speaker 1: cover though, I mean I think the win uh covering
- 5:05Speaker 1: maybe a different story, but I mean, I think my
- 5:08Speaker 1: guess is I would slightly lean to Atlanta in that game,
- 5:11Speaker 1: and so I actually disagree with the we're the cash
- 5:15Speaker 1: percentages on that one right now. And then Seattle at Vegas.
- 5:17Speaker 1: This is a one to one series as well. The
- 5:20Speaker 1: home team won each game here. I gave out Seattle
- 5:23Speaker 1: as a play in game two after Vegas just blasted
- 5:26Speaker 1: them in game one. And you know, when you have
- 5:28Speaker 1: a team scoring over one hundred is ridiculous. And then
- 5:31Speaker 1: WNBA it was almost a thirty point wins. Do you know,
- 5:34Speaker 1: like there was some statistical anomalies in that game, like
- 5:37Speaker 1: Vegas just shot out in their minds in that game.
- 5:39Speaker 1: So I came back and I said, probably you're gonna
- 5:42Speaker 1: see Seattle like progress back to some sort of mean here.
- 5:46Speaker 1: Seattle there's still a pretty tough team. So and that happened.
- 5:50Speaker 1: But it did take a big comeback from Seattle. So
- 5:53Speaker 1: it was a big effort from Seattle. There they're able
- 5:56Speaker 1: to get the win. I do not think they're gonna
- 5:58Speaker 1: win this game. Back at Vege, I guess, but if
- 6:01Speaker 1: you do like Vegas, you're laying a price here. As
- 6:03Speaker 1: I pointed out game two of this series, Vegas was
- 6:07Speaker 1: laying like five and a half on the road there,
- 6:09Speaker 1: but if you look at game one, they're only laying
- 6:12Speaker 1: five and a half at home in game one. So
- 6:14Speaker 1: I was like, how is the price the same on
- 6:17Speaker 1: the road, So it made no sense. It looked like
- 6:19Speaker 1: there was some pretty significant line value on Seattle in
- 6:22Speaker 1: game two as well, so pretty much had to do
- 6:24Speaker 1: it like the zigzag. Plus, the line hadn't moved at all.
- 6:27Speaker 1: But now the books seemingly have readjusted and they have
- 6:31Speaker 1: shifted this line significantly towards Vegas here as we can
- 6:35Speaker 1: see they're up to from eight to eight and a
- 6:37Speaker 1: half now, which that is more in line with what
- 6:40Speaker 1: the line was when they played in Seattle, but it
- 6:43Speaker 1: is significantly higher than it was in Game one. Don't
- 6:46Speaker 1: really think there's any line value on it. Vegas as
- 6:48Speaker 1: public ninety five percent tickets, ninety eight percent of the
- 6:50Speaker 1: cash on them. I think they should win this game.
- 6:54Speaker 1: They are also pretty good at home. Will they cover
- 6:58Speaker 1: It's a different story. I mean. The one thing that
- 7:01Speaker 1: Vegas has going against them though, is that they just
- 7:03Speaker 1: lost a huge win streak. Remember Vegas came into the
- 7:06Speaker 1: playoffs on like a ridiculous win streak fifteen sixteen games.
- 7:10Speaker 1: You know, I talk about when a team loses a
- 7:11Speaker 1: win streak that's that long, sometimes they're not used to that, like,
- 7:15Speaker 1: oh wait a minute, what is this we just lost?
- 7:17Speaker 1: Like they're not used to like bouncing back from that
- 7:19Speaker 1: anymore because they haven't lost in so long. So that
- 7:22Speaker 1: actually could be a little bit of a disadvantage for
- 7:26Speaker 1: Vegas coming into this, like how do they respond to
- 7:28Speaker 1: losing for the first time and who knows how long? So,
- 7:32Speaker 1: I mean, there are some arguments to be had, maybe
- 7:35Speaker 1: for the Seattle side here, I do think Vegas will win, though,
- 7:38Speaker 1: I mean, obviously I have them as my champion to
- 7:41Speaker 1: my bracket. If they lose this game, they're actually out
- 7:43Speaker 1: of the playoffs. I mean, these playoffs are a bit fickle,
- 7:47Speaker 1: but yes, I mean it's WNBA generally. I think the
- 7:50Speaker 1: home favorites are pretty much gonna win most of the time.
- 7:54Speaker 1: But we will see. And again, covering is a different story.
- 8:00Speaker 1: I actually think Atlanta probably is the better of the
- 8:02Speaker 1: two plays between them and Vegas, to be honest, as
- 8:05Speaker 1: far as laying the laying the points spread there, there's
- 8:08Speaker 1: definitely not as much value at all on the Vegas side.
- 8:12Speaker 1: If we dig into this box score real quick. With
- 8:14Speaker 1: the Vegas Seattle game, I mean, Vegas definitely crashed out.
- 8:18Speaker 1: As you can see, they're winning almost the entire game.
- 8:20Speaker 1: So was my play on Seattle wrong? I mean, I
- 8:23Speaker 1: still think it was the right move to make, but
- 8:26Speaker 1: Seattle did shoot out in their minds, so they shot well,
- 8:29Speaker 1: fifty percent from three is ridiculous, Like that's not gonna
- 8:32Speaker 1: happen again. So I do think that type of number
- 8:35Speaker 1: is gonna regress a bit. So that's not really a
- 8:38Speaker 1: good sign for Seattle coming into this one. Going into
- 8:42Speaker 1: that game, I pointed out the free throw disparity. Vegas
- 8:45Speaker 1: still had way more free throw attempts. So Vegas is
- 8:49Speaker 1: just still dominating on the inside. I mean Asia Wilson,
- 8:52Speaker 1: like she just gets to the line all the time, basically,
- 8:55Speaker 1: and there's like almost nothing you can really do about it.
- 8:57Speaker 1: So that might be another thing that might happen in
- 9:01Speaker 1: this game here in Vegas. I mean, it's basically, looking
- 9:05Speaker 1: at what happened in the first two games, it's like
- 9:08Speaker 1: it's almost a certainty the Vegas is gonna get way
- 9:11Speaker 1: more fruit throw a temps again in this one. So
- 9:13Speaker 1: I thought they wouldn't get as many on the road,
- 9:16Speaker 1: but they still did. But at least we got the
- 9:18Speaker 1: win on that one. Let's move on. I will move
- 9:21Speaker 1: on to Major League Baseball here. Most of the series
- 9:26Speaker 1: today are finishing, but we do have a couple of
- 9:28Speaker 1: new series as well. Cleveland is at Detroit and crazy
- 9:32Speaker 1: Cleveland won another game yesterday, so Detroit they seem to
- 9:36Speaker 1: be kind of on cruise control here, But after losing
- 9:40Speaker 1: twice and getting shut out to Cleveland, you gotta think
- 9:42Speaker 1: Detroit's gonna show up focused again here at some point,
- 9:45Speaker 1: because I think they really just have kind of been
- 9:48Speaker 1: coasting for a while because they had such a big
- 9:50Speaker 1: lead in the division. Now Cleveland is right on their ass,
- 9:53Speaker 1: and I don't like that because as a Red Sox fan,
- 9:56Speaker 1: Cleveland is threatening in the wildcard race. They're ahead of
- 9:59Speaker 1: Texas now. It's just absolutely outrageous to see Cleveland a
- 10:04Speaker 1: team that's sold off of the trade deadline. They had
- 10:07Speaker 1: guys that were gambling on the games that got suspended,
- 10:10Speaker 1: including their closer. But maybe the fact that those guys
- 10:13Speaker 1: got suspended maybe refocus them or something. This Cleveland team
- 10:17Speaker 1: is still a terrible offense. They're still not a good team.
- 10:20Speaker 1: They have a negative run differential. It's just all of
- 10:22Speaker 1: it's kind of ridiculous, man, Like, I don't think anybody
- 10:25Speaker 1: expected them to be here, but now that they are,
- 10:28Speaker 1: they're certainly motivated to keep playing, although I think Detroit
- 10:30Speaker 1: will be motivated in this particular game too. I mean,
- 10:34Speaker 1: it's this has just been embarrassing, man, and they want
- 10:36Speaker 1: to make sure they win this division. At the very least.
- 10:39Speaker 1: They still have I think some chances to win. I'm
- 10:43Speaker 1: only looking at the wild card standing serio. I think
- 10:45Speaker 1: they still have some chances to have the best record too,
- 10:47Speaker 1: they're not that far behind. Well, they were like four
- 10:51Speaker 1: games on Toronto, so maybe it's a little bit out
- 10:53Speaker 1: of reach, but I mean still technically possible. Plus, I
- 10:58Speaker 1: mean I think they want to get the better, the
- 10:59Speaker 1: best seating that they can as far as the home
- 11:02Speaker 1: advantage is concerned, and with a team like Detroit, they
- 11:05Speaker 1: are way better at home. Despite what we've seen in
- 11:08Speaker 1: this series, Cleveland does have the better bullpen, but they
- 11:12Speaker 1: did use most of their bullpen arms yesterday that they
- 11:15Speaker 1: have available, so maybe a little bit of a disadvantage
- 11:19Speaker 1: to them here. Detroit did use a lot of the
- 11:21Speaker 1: air leavers too though, so probably you give Cleveland the
- 11:24Speaker 1: bullpen edge. Still, Detroit has the better offense, and that
- 11:29Speaker 1: is not even questioned, not even questionable Cleveland's offense. Cleveland's
- 11:33Speaker 1: offense is what's questionable. They're terrible. This starting pitching matchup
- 11:38Speaker 1: would have been a really interesting one last year because
- 11:40Speaker 1: it would be like the two aces tannered by before.
- 11:44Speaker 1: Cleveland has definitely fallen off a bit though, though he's
- 11:47Speaker 1: been better again recently. I mean, his numbers are now
- 11:50Speaker 1: kind of mediocre on the season, four point four to
- 11:53Speaker 1: four ERA, one point two to four whip. He is
- 11:55Speaker 1: worse on the road though, five point four to two
- 11:57Speaker 1: roady RA. He's coming up basically an elite performance against
- 12:02Speaker 1: the White Sox. I know it's a terrible lineup, but
- 12:04Speaker 1: you have a complete game, shutout with ten strikeouts, no walks,
- 12:08Speaker 1: only two hits against anybody. That's impressive. Man, that's domination.
- 12:13Speaker 1: So his two starts this month have been really good.
- 12:15Speaker 1: He has a one point one five VRA. One of
- 12:17Speaker 1: them was at Tampa Bay, which that's not an easy
- 12:20Speaker 1: place to pitch either. It's a very hitter friendly stadium there.
- 12:25Speaker 1: He's got a thirteen to one strike a walk race
- 12:27Speaker 1: year this month as well. Last month he was really
- 12:30Speaker 1: bad though he had a ton of walks. His ERA
- 12:32Speaker 1: was above six, so it's like, which Biby is gonna
- 12:35Speaker 1: show up here. He's definitely a good form right now though. Man,
- 12:39Speaker 1: he didn't really overextend himself too much in that White
- 12:41Speaker 1: Sox game. Of though. He is coming off a complete game,
- 12:44Speaker 1: so maybe he will be in a little bit of
- 12:45Speaker 1: a let down spot, but I don't really think you
- 12:47Speaker 1: could possibly be in a letdown spot when you're fighting
- 12:49Speaker 1: for a playoff spot potentially and you're up against the
- 12:52Speaker 1: team it's leading your division against Detroit, though he doesn't
- 12:55Speaker 1: do particularly well against them. In one hundred and twenty
- 12:57Speaker 1: six career at bats, thirty to ten strike a walk,
- 13:00Speaker 1: racio is pretty solid, but two eighty six batting average
- 13:03Speaker 1: allowed seven to seventy two ops, so he hasn't been
- 13:06Speaker 1: that good against Detroit, and it makes it worse for
- 13:10Speaker 1: him that he's having to go up against Tarik school Ball,
- 13:13Speaker 1: who obviously is having a cy Young worthy season and
- 13:16Speaker 1: two point two six ERA point eighty six whip is
- 13:20Speaker 1: ridiculous over the amount of innings that he's pitched. One
- 13:23Speaker 1: issue with Schoolble maybe is he gonna be able to
- 13:28Speaker 1: pitch in this game after what happened in his last game,
- 13:30Speaker 1: Because he left his last game with soreness or something
- 13:33Speaker 1: like that, so he had to leave the game. We
- 13:36Speaker 1: weren't sure if he was gonna make his next start.
- 13:38Speaker 1: He is, so I guess he is good to go
- 13:40Speaker 1: because these are meaningful games here, so I don't I
- 13:42Speaker 1: don't think they'd put him out there. Plus, you don't
- 13:44Speaker 1: want to risk getting the best pitcher in baseball basically
- 13:47Speaker 1: injured right before you go into the playoffs. I mean,
- 13:50Speaker 1: you can't have that you need him for the playoffs. Playoffs,
- 13:54Speaker 1: so my guess is, yeah, he must be good to go.
- 13:58Speaker 1: Must have not been very serious. It was yeah, like
- 14:01Speaker 1: soreness in his side. Whatever that was. I thought it
- 14:03Speaker 1: might be like a strained obleaku or something. I don't know.
- 14:06Speaker 1: A school is also better at home. Two point one
- 14:08Speaker 1: seven e ra at home. That start last time out
- 14:11Speaker 1: was at Miami. Didn't do well. He gave it four
- 14:13Speaker 1: and runs and three and a third.
- 14:16Speaker 2: Maybe it was kind of a blip.
- 14:17Speaker 1: I mean he gave up a couple of home runs there,
- 14:19Speaker 1: still didn't walk anybody, had a couple of strikeouts. The
- 14:23Speaker 1: prior start, he shut out the White Sox for seven innings,
- 14:27Speaker 1: gave up two earn runs, so that White Sox team
- 14:30Speaker 1: not a very good hitting team. Schoobl actually had two
- 14:33Speaker 1: shoutouts in a row, and actually three of his prior
- 14:36Speaker 1: four starts were all shutouts, with the only one that
- 14:39Speaker 1: wasn't being a start at the A's Stadium, which is
- 14:41Speaker 1: a terrible stadium to pitch him. And he only allowed
- 14:44Speaker 1: one earn run in that one, a lot of unearned
- 14:46Speaker 1: runs with bad fielding behind him. So I think that
- 14:49Speaker 1: last start of his was a blip. You know, he
- 14:52Speaker 1: had some issues with his side whatever. I think he
- 14:54Speaker 1: should be able to bounce back here. He's facing a
- 14:57Speaker 1: weak offense again here in Cleveland, and he he does
- 15:00Speaker 1: have good numbers against them, one hundred and eighteen at bats.
- 15:02Speaker 1: He has a ridiculous forty to four strikeout walk ratio
- 15:05Speaker 1: against them, two oh three batting average allowed in five
- 15:10Speaker 1: oh one ops. To me, I mean, this seems to
- 15:14Speaker 1: be it seems to be a game that detri It's like,
- 15:17Speaker 1: basically Detroit should win this game. Man. They're a huge favorite.
- 15:21Speaker 1: Though for minus two hundreds of minus two oh five.
- 15:23Speaker 1: I mean, I think you're just always gonna pay too
- 15:26Speaker 1: much for schooble game for the most part. So I
- 15:29Speaker 1: just don't think you could really do it at that price,
- 15:31Speaker 1: even though I do think that Detroit probably will win
- 15:34Speaker 1: this game. Ninety percent of tickets ninety seven percent of
- 15:36Speaker 1: the cash on Detroit, so they are getting some of
- 15:39Speaker 1: the cash. Cleveland is up or excuse the totals up
- 15:43Speaker 1: from seven to seven with juice on the over, fifty
- 15:46Speaker 1: six percent of tickets, fifty eight percent of the cash
- 15:48Speaker 1: on the over, so the money coming in on the over.
- 15:50Speaker 1: It's a low total because it is Schooble on the mound.
- 15:55Speaker 1: I mean, there's not a lot of leeway there. I
- 15:58Speaker 1: think Biby is the more risk give the two starters
- 16:01Speaker 1: obviously here though, so I'm not quite sure I believe
- 16:05Speaker 1: in the over though, if Scooble is good enough to go,
- 16:07Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I quite agree with that. I
- 16:10Speaker 1: might even argue for Cleveland to go under their under
- 16:14Speaker 1: their total here in this one, man, I mean that
- 16:16Speaker 1: might be a way to look a Cleveland team total
- 16:18Speaker 1: under because Schooble does dominate them typically in their offense
- 16:21Speaker 1: is really not that good des where it's bullpen is
- 16:25Speaker 1: in okay is shape. I mean, they're an okay bullpen.
- 16:28Speaker 1: So maybe or maybe you even go like something like
- 16:31Speaker 1: if you can find a prop on like Schooble earn
- 16:33Speaker 1: runs allowed, go under that and then you don't not
- 16:35Speaker 1: to worry about the defense giving it up behind. To me, either,
- 16:38Speaker 1: there's something like that might be a worth a look,
- 16:40Speaker 1: or maybe even just Cleveland team total under in the
- 16:43Speaker 1: first five innings something like that. These games are after
- 16:47Speaker 1: noon games. By the way, It's a lot of after
- 16:48Speaker 1: noon games today because it's basically getaway day for a
- 16:51Speaker 1: lot of these teams. The night games are mostly going
- 16:54Speaker 1: to be a new series that are starting. The afternoon
- 16:57Speaker 1: games are all series that are finishing up. San Diego
- 17:01Speaker 1: at the Mets. This is a big series with wildcard implications.
- 17:04Speaker 1: I know, I have the Mets yesterday. I still think
- 17:06Speaker 1: the Mets should be the more motivated team here. I mean,
- 17:09Speaker 1: San Diego pretty much has a wildcard spot wrapped up.
- 17:13Speaker 1: The Mets are in the last wildcard spots, still on
- 17:15Speaker 1: their way behind San Diego. San Diego does still have
- 17:18Speaker 1: some motivation because they are still in the hunt for
- 17:20Speaker 1: their division. But the Mets, I mean, they're really they're
- 17:24Speaker 1: trying to get this last wildcard spot. Man, it is close.
- 17:27Speaker 1: The Mets are better than the record, but indicate though,
- 17:30Speaker 1: I mean, they just have these weird like laps as,
- 17:32Speaker 1: these weird, bizarre long losing streaks. I don't know what
- 17:35Speaker 1: it is, man, They've split the first two games of
- 17:38Speaker 1: the series these two teams have. San Diego does obviously
- 17:42Speaker 1: have the better of these two bullpens, although the Mets
- 17:44Speaker 1: bullpen isn't terrible. The usage somewhat similar, though the Mets
- 17:48Speaker 1: had two days or didn't use anybody prior to yesterday.
- 17:51Speaker 1: So Mets actually have a little bit more rests in
- 17:54Speaker 1: their bullpen, but San Diego's is the better bullpen. Mets
- 17:57Speaker 1: have the better offense here more significantly. And then look
- 18:01Speaker 1: at the starting pitching on the surface. I mean, you
- 18:04Speaker 1: have a guy who I don't trust pitching for San Diego.
- 18:08Speaker 1: Walks way too many guys up against a young rookie
- 18:11Speaker 1: with a lot of talent, and you know me, I
- 18:12Speaker 1: tend to want to lean to that young rookie, but
- 18:15Speaker 1: looking at these numbers, I mean, I just don't really
- 18:17Speaker 1: think that I could do it, man.
- 18:18Speaker 2: I mean it just seems way too risking San Diego.
- 18:22Speaker 1: That is Randy Vazquez pitching for San Diego, who I'm
- 18:25Speaker 1: talking about here. Pretty good era on the season three
- 18:28Speaker 1: point seven two, but his whip is high one point
- 18:31Speaker 1: three to five. And this guy, he's had really high
- 18:33Speaker 1: walk numbers, man like, not even just this year, but
- 18:36Speaker 1: I think throughout his career, I just don't trust him
- 18:38Speaker 1: because he puts too many guys on base. Even though
- 18:40Speaker 1: he does show glimpses of being good at times, he's
- 18:43Speaker 1: not as good on the road. Of course, away from
- 18:45Speaker 1: that San Diego pitcher friendly Park four point h five
- 18:48Speaker 1: VR on the road. That's not very good. He's been
- 18:53Speaker 1: pretty good recently, though he missed some time. I guess
- 18:57Speaker 1: at the end of August seems like he's missed a
- 18:58Speaker 1: little bit of time this year, came back, and then
- 19:01Speaker 1: in September he's been good with a one point five
- 19:03Speaker 1: y R, twelve strikeouts, and very shockingly no walks. But
- 19:08Speaker 1: maybe we have to dial it back a little bit
- 19:10Speaker 1: because both starts are against the Colorado Rockies, who were
- 19:14Speaker 1: one of the worst offenses in baseball. Though granted, one
- 19:16Speaker 1: of the starts was at Colorado, so that's not an
- 19:19Speaker 1: easy place to pitch really, but maybe you do have
- 19:22Speaker 1: to dial it back a little bit because Colorado is
- 19:24Speaker 1: just such a bad offense. The Mets are a much
- 19:26Speaker 1: much better offense. But the Mets have not seen a
- 19:29Speaker 1: lot of vaskaz so that worries me a bit. They
- 19:32Speaker 1: only have three hitters I've ever seen him, and the
- 19:34Speaker 1: only hit that they have off of him it is
- 19:36Speaker 1: a home run from Soto. But those three guys are
- 19:39Speaker 1: only one for nine offen with five strikeouts and no walks,
- 19:42Speaker 1: so Vazquez is a bit unfamiliar to them. Although I
- 19:46Speaker 1: again still don't think he's that good, and I think
- 19:48Speaker 1: the Mets could capitalize on this, even though their offense
- 19:51Speaker 1: has kind of been slumping again recently. The slump has
- 19:54Speaker 1: been continuing. The Mets have Jonah Toong pitching, talented rookie man,
- 20:01Speaker 1: but he's he's struggled in his last two out because
- 20:04Speaker 1: he's made three starts in his major league career. I
- 20:07Speaker 1: think I was on maybe the under in the first
- 20:10Speaker 1: game that he pitched, and I think it pushed on
- 20:13Speaker 1: the total, and he hasn't been good since then. Man,
- 20:15Speaker 1: he has an eight point four to nine y RRA
- 20:17Speaker 1: and one point seven to one WHIP and maybe they
- 20:20Speaker 1: brought him up too soon. I don't know, because he
- 20:21Speaker 1: is definitely still a talented dude. He throws hard, as
- 20:24Speaker 1: like kind of a weird arm or not really weird
- 20:27Speaker 1: arm angle necessarily, but a weird like just weird mechanics,
- 20:31Speaker 1: weird wind up like he looks like Tim LINSKM, so
- 20:34Speaker 1: he's gonna get himself hurt and throw his back out
- 20:36Speaker 1: at some point. But he's gotten worse in each start,
- 20:39Speaker 1: which is not good. His first start was against Miami.
- 20:41Speaker 1: He had six strikeouts, no walks, give up one er,
- 20:44Speaker 1: and run in five innings.
- 20:46Speaker 2: Actually the under that I had was the second.
- 20:48Speaker 1: Start of his excuse me, so I don't think I
- 20:51Speaker 1: was on that first one this or maybe I was
- 20:54Speaker 1: actually on the under and it was lost. I don't remember.
- 20:57Speaker 2: Maybe I was the second one.
- 20:58Speaker 1: I had the under, and I think it which was
- 21:01Speaker 1: at Great America Ballpark at Cincinnati, so it's a difficult
- 21:04Speaker 1: place to pitch. He allowed four and runs and six
- 21:07Speaker 1: innings in that one, but he did walk four guys,
- 21:10Speaker 1: which is a bit concerning.
- 21:12Speaker 2: Gave up three on runs, but it is a home
- 21:14Speaker 2: run produce a park.
- 21:15Speaker 1: Then his last start, he just got absolutely bombed by
- 21:18Speaker 1: a very bad Texas offense, So I don't really get
- 21:22Speaker 1: it man. He gave up six arned runs in the
- 21:24Speaker 1: first inning, didn't even make it out of the first
- 21:25Speaker 1: inning at three walks, four hits allowed. So I worry
- 21:30Speaker 1: about tong Man, even though of course san Diego has
- 21:32Speaker 1: never seen it before. But if he doesn't even pitch
- 21:33Speaker 1: well against Texas, like, do we trust him to pitch
- 21:37Speaker 1: against San Diego here? Though they're not a very good
- 21:39Speaker 1: offense either, they are better than Texas offensively, so I
- 21:43Speaker 1: don't know. I worry about that man. So the money
- 21:47Speaker 1: is coming in on the Mets. It looks kind of
- 21:49Speaker 1: like yesterday's market read, almost similar to the market read
- 21:52Speaker 1: the day before that too. Sixty nine percent of tickets
- 21:54Speaker 1: are on San Diego. Public does not really like the Mets,
- 21:57Speaker 1: especially they see San Diego as an underdog, and San
- 22:00Speaker 1: Diego has the better record, so that's something the public
- 22:02Speaker 1: will jump on. The money line has moved all the
- 22:05Speaker 1: way from mis one point fifteen to minus one twenty
- 22:07Speaker 1: eight on the Mets. The Mets are a heavier favorite
- 22:10Speaker 1: than they were yesterday. I don't quite get it. It
- 22:14Speaker 1: is interesting. I think I would actually probably lead to
- 22:18Speaker 1: an over in this game. I mean, I just don't
- 22:20Speaker 1: trust either starting pitcher. The total is at nine, which
- 22:23Speaker 1: is fairly high, so the oddsmaker is kind of telling
- 22:25Speaker 1: you something with how high that total is. Uh, sixty
- 22:28Speaker 1: six percent of tickets eight and nine percent of cash
- 22:30Speaker 1: on the over. So the money looks like it is
- 22:32Speaker 1: kind of coming in on the over in that one.
- 22:35Speaker 1: And I know San Diego's bullpen is good, but they're
- 22:38Speaker 1: a little bit unrested right now, so it is certainly
- 22:42Speaker 1: possible the over gets there. I mean, of course, the game,
- 22:45Speaker 1: both games of the series have also gone over, so
- 22:47Speaker 1: it's not like we're going out on a limb there,
- 22:49Speaker 1: though the public will probably also be looking towards an
- 22:52Speaker 1: over and that one if they're playing the total Toronto
- 22:54Speaker 1: at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay got the win yesterday and
- 22:57Speaker 1: that actually broke a lost streak. They lost. There's two
- 23:00Speaker 1: games of this series, both by one run, and then
- 23:02Speaker 1: they got a one run win yesterday, so every game
- 23:05Speaker 1: the series has been close decided by one run. I've
- 23:08Speaker 1: been telling you Tampa Bay, They're not really as bad
- 23:10Speaker 1: as a record looks.
- 23:11Speaker 2: They're definitely still competitive.
- 23:13Speaker 1: They will show up in a series like this against
- 23:15Speaker 1: the division leader Toronto. Toronto's still trying to make sure
- 23:19Speaker 1: that they hang onto the division here, which might be
- 23:21Speaker 1: in question. Toronto did just lose a six game win streak,
- 23:24Speaker 1: and you know I talk about this, when a team
- 23:26Speaker 1: loses a win streak, it can hang them over into
- 23:28Speaker 1: the next game. Man, and Tampa Bay ended losing momentum
- 23:31Speaker 1: for themselves, so that might carry over to this game.
- 23:35Speaker 1: Tampa It is a weird stadium to have to play in.
- 23:37Speaker 1: It's Cinnburnner Field Yankees Triple A stadium, but I think
- 23:42Speaker 1: it's a little bit better for a team like Toronto,
- 23:44Speaker 1: like a team in the AL East, because they play
- 23:47Speaker 1: in Yankee Stadium every year, so it's a very similar
- 23:50Speaker 1: stadium to that, So that might help out the ALE
- 23:52Speaker 1: East opponents a little bit when they have to go
- 23:54Speaker 1: to the stadium here. Tampa does have the better bullpen
- 23:58Speaker 1: of the two. I still don't really totally trust Toronto's bullpen,
- 24:01Speaker 1: although they're pretty rest somewhat rested after yesterday. Toronto us
- 24:04Speaker 1: a lot of relievers on Tuesday, but yesterday they only
- 24:07Speaker 1: used two. Tampa Bay also when we used to though
- 24:10Speaker 1: Tampa has the more rested bopen over the last couple
- 24:13Speaker 1: of days. Coming into this one, Tampa without a whole
- 24:16Speaker 1: lot left to play for it. But a series like
- 24:18Speaker 1: this again with Toronto in your house, you will get
- 24:21Speaker 1: up for it. We got Chris Bassett pitching for Toronto.
- 24:25Speaker 1: Decent season for him. Three point ninety IRA one point
- 24:28Speaker 1: three whip is a little bit higher than I'd like
- 24:30Speaker 1: to see you though. I think he's regressed a little
- 24:33Speaker 1: bit as the season has gone on. He's not quite
- 24:34Speaker 1: as good as he has been throughout the season. He's
- 24:37Speaker 1: not good on the road. Five point four to two
- 24:39Speaker 1: ROADIRA and pitching in this stadium might be a bit
- 24:41Speaker 1: of an issue. He'sn't good this month for the most part,
- 24:45Speaker 1: one point six ninety ra. He's allowed two or fewer
- 24:47Speaker 1: earned runs and five starts in a row going back
- 24:50Speaker 1: into last month, fifteen to six strike a walk ratios alright,
- 24:55Speaker 1: not great. This month he is pitching pretty well, though,
- 24:58Speaker 1: and that includes star It's at Cincinnati and at the Yankees,
- 25:02Speaker 1: so difficult places to pitch. And again, he just pitched
- 25:04Speaker 1: at Yankee Stadium, so he'll be a little bit more
- 25:06Speaker 1: used to pitching in a stadium like this. Although the
- 25:10Speaker 1: last time he pitched at Tampa, he did pitch at
- 25:12Speaker 1: this stadium in May, and he didn't do well. Give
- 25:14Speaker 1: up five and runs in four innings, so that wasn't
- 25:17Speaker 1: good for him. Nine hits, two walks, It could have
- 25:19Speaker 1: been even worse with all the guys he put on
- 25:22Speaker 1: base two strikeouts. That's not necessarily a great sign against
- 25:26Speaker 1: Tampa's offense. Bassett does not have good numbers historically. He's
- 25:29Speaker 1: seventy three at bats nineteen to four strike a walker
- 25:31Speaker 1: issue is good, but three to one batting average allowed uh
- 25:35Speaker 1: three oh one definitely high. In eight eighty six ops,
- 25:39Speaker 1: so he has not been very good against Tampa in
- 25:41Speaker 1: his history. He's gonna be facing Shane Boz for Tampa,
- 25:46Speaker 1: who does not have good numbers this year five point
- 25:49Speaker 1: one five ERA and one point three to seven whipp
- 25:51Speaker 1: although I keep pointing out that I think he is
- 25:53Speaker 1: a bit better than his numbers. Look as far as
- 25:54Speaker 1: like his strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is really high.
- 25:58Speaker 1: He's really struggling in this stadium though, so I don't
- 26:00Speaker 1: really know if he's really backable at home, man, especially
- 26:04Speaker 1: against Toronto offense. Toronto's offense is very good, even without Bashett,
- 26:09Speaker 1: they are definitely the better offense here.
- 26:11Speaker 2: Boz has struggled to pitch in this stadium.
- 26:13Speaker 1: Man. He's been a lot better on the road six
- 26:15Speaker 1: point two eighty RA at home. That's been kind of
- 26:18Speaker 1: wrecking his season numbers a bit. He's just giving up
- 26:20Speaker 1: a ton of home runs in this stadium. It is
- 26:23Speaker 1: difficult to pitch here. He did streak together three pretty
- 26:28Speaker 1: good starts in a row, but two of them were
- 26:29Speaker 1: against Cleveland, one was against Seattle, and then he didn't
- 26:33Speaker 1: have a good one last time out against the Cubs
- 26:35Speaker 1: on the road, give up five and runs and two
- 26:37Speaker 1: and a third innings walked three guys five strike ups.
- 26:40Speaker 1: That wasn't very good. So again, he kind of has
- 26:43Speaker 1: had a BOS like month. Six nineteen to six strike
- 26:48Speaker 1: a walk ratio is not bad, but four point seven
- 26:50Speaker 1: to three ERA, so he's given up some runs, even
- 26:53Speaker 1: though his command numbers kind of indicate that he should
- 26:55Speaker 1: be better than this. Ra wise. Interesting to note his
- 27:00Speaker 1: two decent starts this month are actually both at home,
- 27:02Speaker 1: where he's usually worse, and his bad start was actually
- 27:04Speaker 1: on the road, so that is interesting to point out.
- 27:07Speaker 1: His numbers are pretty good against Toronto and sixty one
- 27:10Speaker 1: at bats seventeen to three strikeout walk race here two
- 27:13Speaker 1: thirty average allowed six twenty six oh ps, So it
- 27:17Speaker 1: is still possible Boss pitches well here. But the money
- 27:19Speaker 1: looks like it's coming in on Toronto. Fifty three percent
- 27:22Speaker 1: of tickets, ninety four percent of the cash on them,
- 27:24Speaker 1: So the cash percentage is on Toronto is a minus
- 27:26Speaker 1: one twenty five road favorite. I mean, so yeah, it
- 27:32Speaker 1: does look like the money's coming in on them, even
- 27:33Speaker 1: though I somewhat disagree with the Toronto side here. I
- 27:36Speaker 1: mean I would have a slight lead to Tampa here,
- 27:38Speaker 1: and I.
- 27:38Speaker 2: Kind of lead to the over.
- 27:40Speaker 1: The total looks like it's basically kind of hanging around
- 27:43Speaker 1: where it was eight and a half eight. It's eight
- 27:46Speaker 1: juice to the over at some places, I guess that's
- 27:48Speaker 1: not really a significant move at all, though seventy six
- 27:51Speaker 1: percent of the tickets ninety six percent of the cash
- 27:53Speaker 1: on the over.
- 27:55Speaker 2: The over might make sense here.
- 27:56Speaker 1: Mid Bassett not good on the road, not good against
- 27:59Speaker 1: Tampa Boss, it was typically not good in this stadium.
- 28:02Speaker 1: Toronto could certainly hit, so an over could possibly make
- 28:06Speaker 1: sense in that one. A's at Boston. My bust In
- 28:10Speaker 1: Red Sox, I'm worried about this man. Two games back
- 28:14Speaker 1: of the Yankees. They're hanging on to the last wildcard
- 28:16Speaker 1: spot right now. They did win yesterday five to four,
- 28:19Speaker 1: in a comeback. They were losing four to two. Gi
- 28:21Speaker 1: Alito not good yesterday. I mean, on the surface, this
- 28:25Speaker 1: looks like the Red Sox should win this game, but
- 28:28Speaker 1: I'm not so sure about that. The Red Sox do
- 28:30Speaker 1: have the better bullpen, but they use a lot of
- 28:32Speaker 1: their bullpen arms. Yesterday they use seven relievers, and it
- 28:36Speaker 1: looks like they're basically only carrying eight. So I'm definitely
- 28:39Speaker 1: worried about that four of their relief pitchers pitched a
- 28:43Speaker 1: second day in a row. Two That is bad, dude,
- 28:46Speaker 1: So I don't like that. Even though the A's bullpen
- 28:48Speaker 1: is the worst bullpen, the A's didn't do that with
- 28:51Speaker 1: any of their relievers. They used fewer relievers yesterday and
- 28:53Speaker 1: they haven't used any for two days in a row.
- 28:56Speaker 1: Kind of negates the Red Sox bullpen edge a little
- 28:58Speaker 1: bit here, though they do have the way better bullpend. Generally,
- 29:01Speaker 1: the A's have the better offense, although the Red Sox
- 29:05Speaker 1: offense is pretty good. J T. Ginn is pitching for
- 29:08Speaker 1: the A's and he hasn't been that great four point
- 29:10Speaker 1: six' NINE era one point three to four, whit but
- 29:13Speaker 1: he is way better on the road three point one SIX.
- 29:16Speaker 1: Era he struggles again in That a's. Stadium it's A
- 29:19Speaker 1: TRIPLE a stadium In sacramento that they play and it's
- 29:21Speaker 1: very hitter, friendly so he's actually way better on the.
- 29:24Speaker 1: Road this. Month he has a point nine to SIX.
- 29:27Speaker 1: Era he's only allowed one run this month eleven to.
- 29:30Speaker 1: Four strike out walk issue isn't that. Good he walked
- 29:32Speaker 1: four guys in his last outing that wasn't. Home but
- 29:34Speaker 1: of course the walks don't really have anything to do
- 29:36Speaker 1: with how home run conduces the ballpark. Is that's maybe
- 29:40Speaker 1: not a great sign for, again but he was decent
- 29:43Speaker 1: over those last two. Starts he wasn't good last month
- 29:45Speaker 1: at all, though seven point two to four e raw
- 29:48Speaker 1: though he did have a really high strikeout right thirty four,
- 29:50Speaker 1: strikeouts but thirteen, walks a lot of. Walks he only
- 29:53Speaker 1: made it five innings in about half his, start so
- 29:56Speaker 1: and he's not going that deep into these games. Either
- 29:58Speaker 1: so if he doesn't go deep, yere the bullpen has
- 30:00Speaker 1: to come into. Play that's kind of What i'm hoping
- 30:03Speaker 1: for as A Red sox, fan you, know because The a's,
- 30:06Speaker 1: BULLPEN i, mean that's who you want to face because
- 30:08Speaker 1: they're not that.
- 30:09Speaker 2: Good, again The Red sox are very unfamiliar with.
- 30:12Speaker 1: Them Only law has ever faced him be where he's
- 30:14Speaker 1: one for two with a, single no, strikeouts no. Walks
- 30:18Speaker 1: again might have a little bit of an edge, here
- 30:20Speaker 1: AS i talk about when a picture is unfamiliar to
- 30:22Speaker 1: the opposing, hitters that tends to be an. Advantage you
- 30:24Speaker 1: could say the same thing About tong by The way
- 30:26Speaker 1: Against San, diego WHICH i forgot to kind of point out.
- 30:29Speaker 1: There but when you have a guy that's just not that,
- 30:31Speaker 1: good you kind of have to gauge how much is
- 30:34Speaker 1: that unfamiliarity gonna help them, out because it is still
- 30:37Speaker 1: a thing where like the opposing offense Is ken struggle
- 30:40Speaker 1: a bit trying to figure that guy. Out But tong,
- 30:42Speaker 1: again he hasn't really fooled guys in his last couple
- 30:45Speaker 1: Out he's gain has been around for a, bit so
- 30:47Speaker 1: there is game footage on him at, least and he's
- 30:50Speaker 1: not a terrific. Picture he's going up Against Brian, bao
- 30:53Speaker 1: whom the advanced analytics guys still don't like. Him he
- 30:57Speaker 1: has bitch, better but he's been getting worse again and
- 31:00Speaker 1: over the last few. Starts three point two Five era
- 31:03Speaker 1: is obviously solid one point two Two whip is not
- 31:06Speaker 1: that bad. Either he is the guy that puts too
- 31:08Speaker 1: many guys on, base though still he walks too many.
- 31:10Speaker 1: Guys did go through a stretch of a couple of
- 31:12Speaker 1: months where he was actually really pretty, good but the
- 31:15Speaker 1: last month he hasn't been as. Good he's a little
- 31:17Speaker 1: bit worse at. Home three point Four. Era at, home
- 31:20Speaker 1: LIKE i, SAID i, mean last couple of months he
- 31:22Speaker 1: actually became pretty. Good his walk rate was way down
- 31:26Speaker 1: In july And, august but this month he's been bad.
- 31:29Speaker 1: Again five point six THREE ra across three, starts ten
- 31:32Speaker 1: to seven strike a walk race. Here that's, bad. Dude
- 31:35Speaker 1: so he's putting too many guys on base via the walk.
- 31:38Speaker 1: AGAIN i, know last two starts were difficult Opponents arizona
- 31:41Speaker 1: and The. Yankees he typically had done pretty well against The.
- 31:44Speaker 1: Yankees he had just pretty much dominated The yankees on
- 31:48Speaker 1: the road not that long. Ago but maybe The, yankees
- 31:50Speaker 1: with recent familiarity against, him hit him a little bit,
- 31:53Speaker 1: better but they were already familiar with.
- 31:54Speaker 2: Him SO i don't.
- 31:55Speaker 1: KNOW i just Think bao is out of form right.
- 31:57Speaker 1: NOW i don't like. It and his numbers against The
- 31:59Speaker 1: a's are pretty. Bad and thirty eight career at bats
- 32:02Speaker 1: thirteen to three strike a walk ratio is, good but
- 32:04Speaker 1: three forty two batting average allowed one and one twenty
- 32:07Speaker 1: seven oh ps that's pretty. Bad four home runs allowed
- 32:12Speaker 1: in that, span that's not. Good Blaed a to them
- 32:14Speaker 1: runs off. Him but the one thing you could say
- 32:17Speaker 1: About bao, though is that all those numbers were from past,
- 32:20Speaker 1: season SO i don't think he's face to as this,
- 32:23Speaker 1: year so there is at least, that like The Red
- 32:25Speaker 1: sox face to a is not that long. Ago But
- 32:28Speaker 1: beao didn't pitch in that road series against. Him i'm
- 32:30Speaker 1: pretty sure So BeO is better this season than he
- 32:33Speaker 1: has been in the. Past the very least of those
- 32:35Speaker 1: numbers that The a's have put up against him were
- 32:37Speaker 1: in the past when he was, Worse so got to
- 32:40Speaker 1: take all that into. Account The Red sox are very public,
- 32:43Speaker 1: though ninety four percent, tickets ninety nine percent of the.
- 32:45Speaker 1: Cash of, course they're still fighting to stay in the
- 32:47Speaker 1: playoff race there The a's are out of, it so
- 32:50Speaker 1: they're just playing out the. Stretch but this is the
- 32:52Speaker 1: type of series they will show up. FOR i, mean
- 32:54Speaker 1: you're playing Against boston At Fenway, park, man so you
- 32:57Speaker 1: will show up with motivation for. That Red sox dropped
- 33:01Speaker 1: for minus one sixty five to minus one fifty on
- 33:03Speaker 1: the money, line ninety four percent of, tickets ninety nine
- 33:05Speaker 1: percent of the cash on, them so they are very.
- 33:08Speaker 1: Public the over is also, public ninety two percent of
- 33:11Speaker 1: the tickets and ninety percent of the. Cash total has
- 33:13Speaker 1: gone up from nine to. Nine juice to the over,
- 33:15Speaker 1: though so it's strongly juiced the, over it's headed towards
- 33:18Speaker 1: nine and a. HALF i, MEAN i don't really disagree
- 33:22Speaker 1: with an, over to be, HONEST i could see both
- 33:24Speaker 1: pitchers kind of struggling in this, one And Red sox
- 33:27Speaker 1: bullpen isn't. Rested The a's bullpen is not, good so
- 33:29Speaker 1: this could definitely be an. Over, obviously you prefer over
- 33:34Speaker 1: nine rather than nine and a. Half nine is a
- 33:36Speaker 1: key number as far as the over is, Concerned as
- 33:39Speaker 1: far as the totals are, CONCERNED i should, say because
- 33:42Speaker 1: nine is what breaks the four to four, tie so
- 33:45Speaker 1: gotta keep all that in. Mind seattle At Kansas, City Kansas,
- 33:49Speaker 1: CITY i mean they're.
- 33:49Speaker 2: Sitting at five hundred.
- 33:50Speaker 1: There it's pretty unlikely that they're gonna make the playoffs
- 33:53Speaker 1: at this, point BUT i mean they're playing at home Against.
- 33:56Speaker 1: Seattle they still have. MOTIVATION i think Having Cole reagan's
- 33:59Speaker 1: pitching yesterday did motivate them a. Bit he did all,
- 34:02Speaker 1: RIGHT i, think And Kansas city was actually able to
- 34:06Speaker 1: score some runs for, once which helped us. Out BECAUSE
- 34:09Speaker 1: i gave Out Kansas city as a play on the.
- 34:10Speaker 1: Show Kansas city did get the. Win seattle lost a win,
- 34:15Speaker 1: streak SO i told, you, Man i'm the streak. BUSTER
- 34:18Speaker 1: i told you, THAT i don't THINK i tried to
- 34:20Speaker 1: play Against seattle that entire. STRETCH i don't. Think and
- 34:23Speaker 1: then they had won ten games in a row and
- 34:25Speaker 1: then they finally. Lost when you know WHAT i always,
- 34:27Speaker 1: say when a team loses a win streak like, that
- 34:30Speaker 1: they're not really used to, that and sometimes they can
- 34:32Speaker 1: hang them over into the next. Game so that might
- 34:35Speaker 1: worry About seattle a little. Bit seattle's still trying to
- 34:37Speaker 1: fight for the. Division they fell Behind houston. Again houston
- 34:42Speaker 1: just Beat texas again, yesterday So seattle's Behind houston. Again
- 34:45Speaker 1: So seattle's now back in one of the wildcard. Spots
- 34:49Speaker 1: they're probably gonna make the, playoffs but they have reason
- 34:52Speaker 1: to show up, anyway right because they're trying to make
- 34:55Speaker 1: sure they make a wildcard. Spot they could win the,
- 34:57Speaker 1: division which would be more, helpful especially FOR Sa they're
- 35:00Speaker 1: definitely better at, home but that's one of the issues.
- 35:03Speaker 1: Here same With San diego and on This mets. Series
- 35:06Speaker 1: by the, way The mets are way better at. Home
- 35:08Speaker 1: San diego's bad on the. Road San diego And seattle
- 35:11Speaker 1: both have pitcher friendly, parks so they tend to just
- 35:14Speaker 1: not do as well on the. Road seattle's not as
- 35:15Speaker 1: good on the, road even THOUGH i Know Kansas city
- 35:17Speaker 1: is also a pitcher friendly. Park both these bullpens are pretty.
- 35:21Speaker 2: Good In Seattle Kansas.
- 35:23Speaker 1: City Kansas city a lot of bullpen, usage though over
- 35:25Speaker 1: the last couple of, days including, Yesterday seattle used a
- 35:29Speaker 1: bit less of their bullpen, Yesterday SO i Think seattle
- 35:32Speaker 1: might actually get a little bit of a bullpen edge
- 35:34Speaker 1: from that because the bullpens are. Close as far as
- 35:37Speaker 1: how good they, Are seattle has the way better offense
- 35:41Speaker 1: on the. Surface you might say That seattle has the
- 35:43Speaker 1: better pitcher on the Mon Luis. Castillo he's pretty consistent.
- 35:47Speaker 1: Usually he's been pretty good this year three point seven
- 35:50Speaker 1: to SIX era one point two to five. Whip he's
- 35:52Speaker 1: way worse on the road, though five point zero nine
- 35:55Speaker 1: road Y. Ra maybe that won't carry over to a
- 35:57Speaker 1: game like this where it's a more picture friendly. Park
- 36:00Speaker 1: he's been pretty good this month three point nine FOUR
- 36:03Speaker 1: era sixteen to three strike a walk. Ratio after he
- 36:07Speaker 1: didn't do well At Tampa, bay, which AS i keep pointing,
- 36:09Speaker 1: out hitter friendly. Ballpark he did well in his last
- 36:12Speaker 1: two starts six innings each Against atlanta And anaheim give
- 36:15Speaker 1: a one on run in each of, them not like
- 36:17Speaker 1: the most prolific offense is, there but not the worst,
- 36:19Speaker 1: Either so he's in decent form again right. Now and
- 36:22Speaker 1: of Course Kansas city is not a prolific offense. Either
- 36:25Speaker 1: he has done well against them in the past and
- 36:27Speaker 1: ninety two at bats seventeen to six strike a walk
- 36:29Speaker 1: ratio two oh seven average allowed six fourteen. Ops so
- 36:34Speaker 1: he's done pretty well Against Kansas city in the, past
- 36:37Speaker 1: so he might pitch well here going up Against Stephen,
- 36:40Speaker 1: kolek WHO i do think he definitely has less of
- 36:42Speaker 1: a track. Record. Man his numbers have been pretty good
- 36:45Speaker 1: this year, though between pitching With San diego And Kansas
- 36:48Speaker 1: city three point seven to ONE era one point two.
- 36:51Speaker 1: Whip he's been way worse at, home which makes no,
- 36:54Speaker 1: sense and that was mostly With San Diego San diego
- 36:56Speaker 1: Pitcher Friendly, park and he was awful. THERE i don't
- 36:59Speaker 1: even understand what six point five FIVE, era but maybe
- 37:03Speaker 1: we don't have. To we shouldn't read into that too,
- 37:05Speaker 1: MUCH i don't, think because he's made two of his
- 37:09Speaker 1: three starts With Kansas city have been at home and
- 37:11Speaker 1: they were both, good so he appears to be pretty
- 37:15Speaker 1: good pitching in this. Park With Kansas. City he does
- 37:18Speaker 1: have an eleven to two strike up walk ratio across three,
- 37:21Speaker 1: starts up two or fewer earned, runs and all of
- 37:23Speaker 1: them gone six or more, innings and all of them
- 37:26Speaker 1: first one was Against, detroit so they're a decent. Offense
- 37:29Speaker 1: minnesota And cleveland of the other two though not great,
- 37:31Speaker 1: offenses but did. Well he's done well so far With Kansas,
- 37:36Speaker 1: city but he is having a step up in class
- 37:38Speaker 1: to face This mariners, offense which is obviously better than
- 37:42Speaker 1: those other offenses he's. Faced they have twenty three at
- 37:45Speaker 1: bats against, them which is not a huge, sample but
- 37:47Speaker 1: he hasn't done that well against them six to, three
- 37:49Speaker 1: strike out walk, ratio THREE h four average, allowed one
- 37:52Speaker 1: thousand and eighty. Ops SO i do think the lean
- 37:57Speaker 1: Is seattle in this. GAME i think they have a
- 37:59Speaker 1: slight bowl pen edge because of the usage over the
- 38:01Speaker 1: last couple of. Days AND i do Think castillo is
- 38:04Speaker 1: more trustworthy and he has the better matchup numbers over
- 38:08Speaker 1: a Cole ec ALTHOUGH i Know castillo is not typically
- 38:10Speaker 1: as good on the, road but in a situation like,
- 38:13Speaker 1: this again's a weak offense in what he is a
- 38:15Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park and he typically does well against that.
- 38:17Speaker 1: OFFENSE i think he will do okay in this. Game
- 38:20Speaker 1: to the money line did flip from plus one one
- 38:23Speaker 1: to eighteen to minus one nine, Teams So seattle taking
- 38:26Speaker 1: the money, there flipping them from an underdog to a.
- 38:29Speaker 1: Favorite that is something you should look. At they have
- 38:32Speaker 1: ninety one percent of the tickets, though so you know
- 38:34Speaker 1: the public is going to be On. Seattle LIKE i, said,
- 38:36Speaker 1: yesterday the public was On, seattle but yesterday the money
- 38:38Speaker 1: was coming in on The. Royals today it is. Not
- 38:41Speaker 1: we've seen ninety two percent of the cash On, seattle
- 38:44Speaker 1: so it looks like Maybe seattle has the public and
- 38:46Speaker 1: professional money all on the same, side which does mean
- 38:51Speaker 1: the books are gonna probably need them to lose the
- 38:53Speaker 1: game if they want if they want to win money
- 38:55Speaker 1: on this, one but that's probably part of the reason
- 38:58Speaker 1: why they've had to move the line. There but, YEAH
- 39:01Speaker 1: i would not disagree with The seattle side and that,
- 39:04Speaker 1: one although again one of the other THINGS i do
- 39:06Speaker 1: worry about again is The seattle's in that spot where
- 39:08Speaker 1: they lost a long wind streak and it could hang
- 39:10Speaker 1: them over into this one and they are still not
- 39:13Speaker 1: that good on the. Road Kansas city is a little
- 39:14Speaker 1: bit better at. Home so all things to keep in,
- 39:17Speaker 1: mind it's not gonna be a play for. Me, stacks
- 39:20Speaker 1: what's up, Man thanks for hanging. Out good morning as.
- 39:22Speaker 1: WELL i Know i'm early this, morning but hopefully people
- 39:26Speaker 1: will catch it and then you, know people will watch
- 39:28Speaker 1: it on a little bit of a.
- 39:29Speaker 2: DELAY i couldn't, sleep got up.
- 39:31Speaker 1: Early you, know things going On miami At colorado and
- 39:36Speaker 1: this is just an, ugly ugly. Series colorado has lost
- 39:41Speaker 1: four games in a. Row they've lost both games in
- 39:43Speaker 1: this series so, far ALTHOUGH i mean one of the
- 39:47Speaker 1: games is. CLOSE i mean it's not like they're getting
- 39:49Speaker 1: absolutely wrecked in this series or anything like. THAT i
- 39:52Speaker 1: don't love either bullpen at. All colorado's is the worst
- 39:54Speaker 1: of the two, bullpends, though and they had a little
- 39:56Speaker 1: bit more usage. Yesterday So miami does have a bullpen,
- 39:59Speaker 1: advantage even though the bullpen is still not very. Good
- 40:02Speaker 1: miami has a better, offense even though their offense is
- 40:05Speaker 1: really not that good. Either probably you gotta argue That
- 40:10Speaker 1: miami has a better starter as. Well With sandy Al.
- 40:12Speaker 1: Contra he's a guy who's one of those guys who
- 40:15Speaker 1: Had Tommy john surgery and hasn't really become what he
- 40:18Speaker 1: once was or he used to be actually really. Good
- 40:21Speaker 1: this season has not been good for. Him he hasn't
- 40:23Speaker 1: been good for a couple of seasons now five point
- 40:26Speaker 1: five to THREE, era one point two to nine. Whips
- 40:28Speaker 1: his whip is actually getting a little bit. Better HIS
- 40:30Speaker 1: era has been getting better too. Though he's actually pitching better,
- 40:33Speaker 1: recently although he hasn't been good on the road seven
- 40:35Speaker 1: point twenty four roadier and that might not be good
- 40:38Speaker 1: considering he's pitching in Corps field. HERE i know The
- 40:41Speaker 1: rockies offense isn't, good but they're better at, home and
- 40:44Speaker 1: that is a difficult place to pitch sometimes because of the.
- 40:47Speaker 1: Elevation although you are looking at El contra is not
- 40:51Speaker 1: really a guy that gives up a ton of fly.
- 40:53Speaker 2: BALLS i don't think.
- 40:54Speaker 1: So he's not one of those extreme fly ball pitchers
- 40:57Speaker 1: where those guys can be worse off pitching a stadium like.
- 41:00Speaker 1: This and he has been good over the last for
- 41:04Speaker 1: most of the last, month, basically he did have a
- 41:06Speaker 1: three point six to nine E ra In, august started
- 41:09Speaker 1: pitching well in his most of his recent. Starts he's
- 41:12Speaker 1: given up two or fewer earned runs in five of
- 41:15Speaker 1: his last six outings and allowed four in the one
- 41:19Speaker 1: that he allowed on more than, two which is Against,
- 41:21Speaker 1: philadelphia who is a good. Offense had a thirty eight
- 41:24Speaker 1: to ten strike a walk ratio last, month so his
- 41:26Speaker 1: command was on. Point this month it continues to be
- 41:29Speaker 1: twelve to one even those the ra's four point one
- 41:32Speaker 1: five because of that one start Against. Philly he bounced
- 41:35Speaker 1: back and did pretty well Against, detroit really well and seven,
- 41:38Speaker 1: innings two earned, runs a lot of eight, strikeouts no,
- 41:41Speaker 1: walk although both of those games were at, home so
- 41:44Speaker 1: he's been better at. Home he's gonna have to pitch
- 41:46Speaker 1: A corse, here but he does have good numbers Against
- 41:48Speaker 1: colorado in the past and thirty eight at bats seven to,
- 41:51Speaker 1: one strike a walk, ratio two to eleven batting average
- 41:54Speaker 1: five seventy three oh, ps so he's been good Against
- 41:57Speaker 1: colorado in the. Past he is in pretty good form right,
- 42:01Speaker 1: now so he may pitch well. Here, jeffrey what's? Up?
- 42:04Speaker 1: Man Saint louis flipped as. Well that was a, Yeah,
- 42:09Speaker 1: Cincinnati cincinnati got To cincinnati get the. Win i'm gonna
- 42:13Speaker 1: talk About cincinnati at the end of the baseball, segment
- 42:16Speaker 1: because that's gonna be the game WHERE i have my
- 42:18Speaker 1: best bet. Today but if you got to win On,
- 42:20Speaker 1: cincinnati that is. Good so at least my senses were
- 42:25Speaker 1: right on that. One if that Was if that was the,
- 42:26Speaker 1: CASE i can check real. Quick yeah that's. True they
- 42:29Speaker 1: got the. Win Brady, Singer i'm pretty sure is the
- 42:31Speaker 1: pitcher in that? One? Yeah there you. Go. Man oh,
- 42:34Speaker 1: yeah so that was that was a good one. There
- 42:36Speaker 1: sometimes the market reworks, OUT i would say more often
- 42:40Speaker 1: it works out more often than it. Doesn't although you
- 42:43Speaker 1: know you're Not you're not gonna win at an extremely high.
- 42:46Speaker 1: Rate just in this business in, general you just have
- 42:48Speaker 1: to win enough to, profit you, know that's the name
- 42:50Speaker 1: of the. Game it's a. Grind so you are gonna
- 42:53Speaker 1: take some losses here and, there a good amount of,
- 42:56Speaker 1: losses so you just need to, win you, know more
- 42:58Speaker 1: than you lose and not to overcome the price that
- 43:02Speaker 1: you have to pay for the. Bets so, basically you
- 43:04Speaker 1: have to win like fifty three to fifty four percent
- 43:06Speaker 1: when you're laying minus one ten on something over though
- 43:08Speaker 1: perst in baseball it's a little bit different because baseball
- 43:11Speaker 1: is a money line. Sport so when you're, laying you
- 43:13Speaker 1: know something more than minus one, ten you have to win.
- 43:15Speaker 1: More you have to win a higher percentage of those.
- 43:18Speaker 1: Ones colorado has ten Or gordon pitching in this. One
- 43:22Speaker 1: not good numbers on the, season six point one FOUR,
- 43:24Speaker 1: era one point five. Whip he's actually been better in
- 43:27Speaker 1: course field, though five point FOUR era at, home, interestingly
- 43:32Speaker 1: and he's actually been pretty good. Recently colorado has actually
- 43:35Speaker 1: won five his last six. Outings he's given up three
- 43:38Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs in those five. Outings the only
- 43:41Speaker 1: one that he lost was one at home though Against San.
- 43:44Speaker 1: Diego BUT i mean half of those starts were at
- 43:47Speaker 1: home and he pitched well and all the other, ones
- 43:49Speaker 1: so interestingly, enough he's been pretty. Good twenty six to
- 43:53Speaker 1: six strike a walk ratio last, month even though he
- 43:55Speaker 1: had a seven point one TWO, era did have two
- 43:58Speaker 1: really bad starts to start the month a month Against
- 44:01Speaker 1: toronto And, arizona and then settled way. Down he's pitching
- 44:05Speaker 1: better right now man fourteen to two strike a walk
- 44:07Speaker 1: ratio this, month but six point five TWO era because
- 44:11Speaker 1: of that one bad start Against San. Diego BUT i
- 44:13Speaker 1: think he's better than he appears on the. Surface at,
- 44:15Speaker 1: least And miami has actually never faced him, before So
- 44:19Speaker 1: gordon actually has a bit of an unfamiliarity at, year
- 44:22Speaker 1: and he's actually in pretty good form right, now so
- 44:24Speaker 1: the unfamiliarity might help him out against this. Lineup they
- 44:27Speaker 1: might struggle to figure him out a little. Bit so
- 44:29Speaker 1: it may it might seem a little bit odd, here
- 44:31Speaker 1: BUT i actually think an under may be worth a look,
- 44:34Speaker 1: here ALTHOUGH i would only do it in the first
- 44:36Speaker 1: five innings BECAUSE i don't think you want any part
- 44:38Speaker 1: of these. Bullpens the totals at ten and a, half
- 44:41Speaker 1: it has flipped from being juice to the, over to
- 44:43Speaker 1: juice to the. Under uh sixty three percent tickets on
- 44:46Speaker 1: the over ninety three percent of the cash on the,
- 44:47Speaker 1: under so money seems to be back in the under.
- 44:50Speaker 1: AGAIN i would do it in the first five, innings,
- 44:52Speaker 1: THOUGH i think both starting pitchers could potentially get, there
- 44:55Speaker 1: and you'll get a big number on and probably like
- 44:57Speaker 1: five and a half something like. That Uh so something
- 45:01Speaker 1: may be worth a look in that. Game the money
- 45:03Speaker 1: is also coming out Of. Miami i'm not quite so
- 45:05Speaker 1: sure about. That one fifty nine percent of tickets are On.
- 45:07Speaker 1: Colorado how the hell Is colorado public against. ANYBODY i,
- 45:11Speaker 1: mean that doesn't even make. SENSE i don't even know
- 45:13Speaker 1: if that number is. Accurate eighty four percent of the
- 45:16Speaker 1: cash On, miami and THAT i, Buy BUT i don't
- 45:18Speaker 1: really buy that the public is On colorado to some.
- 45:21Speaker 1: Extent that just doesn't make any sense to. Me But
- 45:25Speaker 1: miami is also a huge. FAVORITE i, Mean colorado is
- 45:28Speaker 1: just that. Bad they get no respect in the marketplace at.
- 45:32Speaker 1: All miami's down for my just one seventy miles one sixty.
- 45:35Speaker 1: SEVEN i, mean who Is miami, though to really lay
- 45:38Speaker 1: a price like that against any. TEAM i, mean to,
- 45:40Speaker 1: me that price just seems too, Extravagant, LIKE i don't
- 45:43Speaker 1: know why you would want to lay a price like
- 45:45Speaker 1: that In.
- 45:45Speaker 2: Miami, YEAH i, MEAN i think the.
- 45:49Speaker 1: First five unders is the thing for me that would
- 45:51Speaker 1: maybe be worth a look in that game a little
- 45:53Speaker 1: bit dangerous of, course fields still, Though Cubs, Reds i'm
- 45:56Speaker 1: gonna give out a play on that. One and at
- 45:58Speaker 1: least it's a game with implication Against it's a game
- 46:01Speaker 1: that people.
- 46:01Speaker 2: Might actually care.
- 46:02Speaker 1: About BUT i don't really care about, That, Like i'm
- 46:05Speaker 1: just looking for WHAT i think is the best, Spot
- 46:06Speaker 1: LIKE i don't care if it's in some garbage game or.
- 46:09Speaker 1: Not The yankees And baltimore once again to these night.
- 46:11Speaker 1: Games we're mostly gonna be dealing with games that are new.
- 46:15Speaker 1: Series only one of them is a continuing, series which
- 46:17Speaker 1: is The Anaheim Milwaukee. One yankees just won again Against minnesota,
- 46:22Speaker 1: yesterday and now they're traveling To.
- 46:23Speaker 2: Baltimore baltimore.
- 46:27Speaker 1: Returning over from a road, trip and they went To
- 46:28Speaker 1: toronto And. Chicago they got swept At toronto and then
- 46:31Speaker 1: they swept The White Sox.
- 46:34Speaker 2: Baltimore this has just been the.
- 46:35Speaker 1: Sweeps, basically they Swept San diego not that long, ago
- 46:38Speaker 1: they almost swept The, dodgers which, YEAH i, MEAN i
- 46:43Speaker 1: don't know what else to say about any of. That
- 46:44Speaker 1: then they Swept, pittsburgh got swept By, toronto and then
- 46:47Speaker 1: swept The White. Sox it's just kind of. Ridiculous baltimore
- 46:50Speaker 1: just continues to dominate The White. SOX i, mean it's
- 46:52Speaker 1: just crazy that they just seem to have The White
- 46:55Speaker 1: sox number. Completely Now baltimore is returning over from a road,
- 46:58Speaker 1: trip AND i talk about that as being a distracted
- 47:01Speaker 1: spot because you have to get back to family, life
- 47:03Speaker 1: especially when you're a team that's going nowhere Like, baltimore
- 47:06Speaker 1: but it's a home game against The, yankees SO i
- 47:10Speaker 1: think that it might be a spot where they might
- 47:12Speaker 1: actually still show up for a game like this against The.
- 47:14Speaker 1: YANKEES i, mean you have a chance to maybe try
- 47:16Speaker 1: to spoil The yankee season a little. Bit it's The,
- 47:18Speaker 1: yankees you. KNOW i think you're gonna be focused just
- 47:21Speaker 1: because of, that and you're facing their ace, today SO
- 47:24Speaker 1: i think it will be a focused spot For baltimore,
- 47:26Speaker 1: still even though maybe some slight distractions in. There yankees
- 47:30Speaker 1: still need to keep winning as, well, though because they're
- 47:32Speaker 1: fighting for a playoff spot right, now for the wild
- 47:34Speaker 1: card and potentially for a Division for the division, Here
- 47:38Speaker 1: yankees obviously have the way better. Offense both bullpens. STINKS
- 47:41Speaker 1: i don't even know which bullpen is actually the better
- 47:43Speaker 1: one at this point or the less. BAD i guess The.
- 47:47Speaker 1: Yankees it's very slight. THOUGH i mean you can see
- 47:50Speaker 1: it right. Here The yankees have a four point five
- 47:52Speaker 1: to seven bullpenny array for the for the people listening
- 47:55Speaker 1: on audio. Later baltimore's is four point five. Nine that's
- 47:58Speaker 1: their bullpeny array in the. Season so it's very very.
- 48:00Speaker 1: Close both of these bullpens. Suck Yankees wolpin has been
- 48:04Speaker 1: pretty bad. Recently they use a decent amount of it
- 48:07Speaker 1: the last couple of. Days baltimore's running with a thin
- 48:09Speaker 1: bullpen though they're only running with seven bullpen. Arms they
- 48:12Speaker 1: used that many of them. Yesterday but it's not a
- 48:15Speaker 1: good bullpend, Though honey either, side so something to take
- 48:18Speaker 1: into account. Here yankees do have a starting pitching edge
- 48:21Speaker 1: With max free and on them. Out he's obviously the
- 48:23Speaker 1: better of these two. Pitchers good season for, him three
- 48:26Speaker 1: point zero THREE, era one point one to THREE. Whip
- 48:29Speaker 1: he is not as good on the road, though three
- 48:31Speaker 1: point five to one ROAD. Era this month he's been.
- 48:35Speaker 1: Decent two point seven to NINETY ra is good fifteen
- 48:37Speaker 1: to six strikeout walker issue is not as, good but
- 48:40Speaker 1: he's picked up wins in all three. Outings he's allowed
- 48:42Speaker 1: three or four earned runs and five straight starts against
- 48:46Speaker 1: mostly pretty capable offenses, too The Red sox Twice Toronto,
- 48:50Speaker 1: houston so he is in good for him again for
- 48:52Speaker 1: the most, part going up Against, baltimore who is not
- 48:57Speaker 1: as good of an. Offense he's done well against them
- 48:59Speaker 1: in THE pa fifty eight at bats seventeen to six
- 49:02Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio is not, terrific but two twenty
- 49:04Speaker 1: four batting average allowed six oh seven, ops so he's
- 49:08Speaker 1: generally done well against. Them not really SOMETHING i really
- 49:11Speaker 1: want to. Fade he's going up against Cade, povich who
- 49:15Speaker 1: is a young guy who should have some, talent but
- 49:17Speaker 1: it just hasn't panned, out at least not yet For.
- 49:19Speaker 1: Baltimore he's got a five point zero FIVE era one
- 49:22Speaker 1: point four.
- 49:23Speaker 2: Or five whip not. Good that is a bad.
- 49:24Speaker 1: Whip can't put that many guys on base. MAN i
- 49:28Speaker 1: believe he was injured for a little bit of the,
- 49:30Speaker 1: season but hasn't been very. Good he hasn't been good at.
- 49:33Speaker 1: Home five point six EIGHT era at, home that's pretty.
- 49:36Speaker 1: Bad he missed like about a month and a half
- 49:40Speaker 1: and then came back In august and he was decent
- 49:43Speaker 1: really In. August so the thirty two to nine strike
- 49:45Speaker 1: a walk ratio four point seven to EIGHTY, ra that
- 49:47Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio was. Good this, month he hasn't
- 49:50Speaker 1: really been as good, though nine to five strike up
- 49:52Speaker 1: walk ratio Against San diego And. Pittsburgh not good offenses,
- 49:56Speaker 1: really and At San diego it's a picture friendly, park
- 49:59Speaker 1: so it's not really press of what he did in
- 50:01Speaker 1: those two, starts put up a five point zero sixty
- 50:03Speaker 1: ra walked away too many. Guys, YEAH i Mean povich
- 50:07Speaker 1: is not really pitching that well right. Now The yankees
- 50:10Speaker 1: have seen him before only twenty eight at, bats so
- 50:14Speaker 1: it's not a huge sample. Size he has a really
- 50:16Speaker 1: awful strikeout walk ratio against him two, strikeouts eight.
- 50:19Speaker 2: Walks that is.
- 50:20Speaker 1: TERRIBLE i sell him to two fifty batting averagually one
- 50:24Speaker 1: twenty four oh ps because of the eight, walks a
- 50:27Speaker 1: double and three home runs a lot of the two
- 50:29Speaker 1: of them are From judge Or he's two for two
- 50:32Speaker 1: with two home runs and three walks off, Him so
- 50:34Speaker 1: got to pitch around that guy if You're. Povich but,
- 50:37Speaker 1: YEAH i MEAN i don't really have any faith in
- 50:39Speaker 1: The orioles in that, game to be, honest even though
- 50:42Speaker 1: they might show up and try to win that. GAME
- 50:46Speaker 1: i don't think there's much of a way you could
- 50:48Speaker 1: really play The yankees, either though they're up for minus
- 50:50Speaker 1: one seventy to minus one to ninety, three heavy road.
- 50:53Speaker 1: FAVORITE i, mean you're always.
- 50:54Speaker 2: Paying attacks with The yankees.
- 50:55Speaker 1: Are almost always very rare that you're, not and With
- 50:58Speaker 1: freed on the.
- 50:58Speaker 2: Mound you know that gonna juice the lineup.
- 51:01Speaker 1: Even further on. Them sixty percent of, tickets eighty eight
- 51:04Speaker 1: percent of the cash on The, yankees though the money
- 51:06Speaker 1: is coming in on The yankee side as. WELL i
- 51:10Speaker 1: don't really love, it, man and very heavily public over as,
- 51:14Speaker 1: well ninety three percent of tickets on the, over but
- 51:16Speaker 1: ninety two percent of the. Cash so it looks like
- 51:19Speaker 1: could be potentially an under, game the total dropping a
- 51:21Speaker 1: little bit going in reverse line movement fashion against where
- 51:25Speaker 1: the public is down to nine juice to the. UNDER
- 51:29Speaker 1: i don't THINK i would really trust an under at, all,
- 51:31Speaker 1: though if you're gonna do an, under you have to
- 51:33Speaker 1: do it in the first five, innings because both bullpens,
- 51:36Speaker 1: stink AND i don't think you can really Trust povic,
- 51:38Speaker 1: Either SO i don't really see That anahei At. Milwaukee
- 51:42Speaker 1: milwaukee did win. Again you say they won both games
- 51:45Speaker 1: of this series nine to. Two brewers having some issues right, now,
- 51:49Speaker 1: Man as you can see, Here kintana just had to
- 51:51Speaker 1: go on the injury. List, miguil their, closer looks.
- 51:54Speaker 2: Like he might not come.
- 51:55Speaker 1: Back that's not good for the team that has the
- 51:57Speaker 1: best record in baseball, Man I'm. Milwaukee they're still hanging
- 52:01Speaker 1: on to the division lead right. Now they still don't
- 52:04Speaker 1: have the division completely wrapped, up although it's pretty likely
- 52:07Speaker 1: they're going to clinch the division pretty. Soon five game
- 52:11Speaker 1: lead over The, cubs but not a whole lot left
- 52:13Speaker 1: in the. Season. Here they got a little bit of
- 52:15Speaker 1: momentum right. Now but, again they are Playing anaheim for
- 52:18Speaker 1: the third straight, time having beaten them, easily and after
- 52:21Speaker 1: this they have a divisional series Against Saint louis starting.
- 52:25Speaker 1: TOMORROW i Know Saint louis isn't really that good, though
- 52:27Speaker 1: so is that a look ahead spot For?
- 52:30Speaker 2: MILWAUKEE i don't.
- 52:31Speaker 1: Know, MAYBE i mean it is still a divisional. Series
- 52:33Speaker 1: they might not really give a shit About anaheim in this.
- 52:36Speaker 1: Game milwaukee does have the better bullpen of these. Two
- 52:40Speaker 1: even without. McGill they only use a few relievers Yesterday
- 52:44Speaker 1: anaheim used only. Two But anaheim's bullpen they're thin in
- 52:49Speaker 1: their bullpen right. Now they're just not a good. Bullpen
- 52:51Speaker 1: So milwaukee does have the better. Bullpen they do have
- 52:53Speaker 1: the better offense, too even though it's not quite as
- 52:55Speaker 1: good at. Home you Say kouchi is pitching For anaheim,
- 52:58Speaker 1: here he hasn't really been that good. Man four point
- 53:02Speaker 1: eight one point four to six whip is. Terrible he
- 53:05Speaker 1: puts way too many guys on. Base he's been bad
- 53:07Speaker 1: on the. Road five point one six roadyra hasn't been
- 53:11Speaker 1: good at all this month eight point five SIX, era
- 53:15Speaker 1: ten to six strike a walk ratio that is. Bad
- 53:17Speaker 1: he's given up five or more in runs and three
- 53:19Speaker 1: of his last four. OUTINGS i know he was better
- 53:21Speaker 1: in his last outing At seattle held him in one
- 53:23Speaker 1: and run pitcher friendly park. There i'm not gonna put
- 53:26Speaker 1: that much weight into that because his recent form has
- 53:29Speaker 1: been really. Bad, otherwise his numbers against The brewers surprisingly
- 53:34Speaker 1: are good though in forty five at bats one seventy
- 53:37Speaker 1: eight average allowed five to seventy two o. Ps except
- 53:39Speaker 1: his strike a walk ratio is terrible against them thirteen,
- 53:42Speaker 1: strikeouts ten. Walks so, Again kakuchi walks way too many guys,
- 53:46Speaker 1: Man SO i don't know if he's really trustworthy. Here
- 53:48Speaker 1: he's going on Against Quinn, priester who is having a good,
- 53:52Speaker 1: season probably better than what he actually. Is three point
- 53:55Speaker 1: two five r one point two to three whip For.
- 53:57Speaker 1: Milwaukee he isn't as good at home, though three point
- 54:02Speaker 1: seventy Five. Homera it's not, bad but he's still not
- 54:04Speaker 1: as good at. Home he's still maintaining this ridiculous. Streak.
- 54:08Speaker 1: NOW i think we're now up to what is. This
- 54:11Speaker 1: it's like seventeen or eighteen games in a row that
- 54:14Speaker 1: he's appeared and Then milwaukee's won all of, them and
- 54:17Speaker 1: he started all BUT i think three of, them and
- 54:19Speaker 1: those three where he didn't start it that he had
- 54:21Speaker 1: an opener in front of. Him then he came in
- 54:22Speaker 1: and basically had a starter's workload coming in after an
- 54:26Speaker 1: opener pitch the first. Inning it is a ridiculous streak
- 54:29Speaker 1: that he's. On, man he's allowed two or fewer in
- 54:33Speaker 1: runs and all but three of those OUTINGS i, THINK i,
- 54:36Speaker 1: mean that's just that's pretty, insane to be. Honest and
- 54:40Speaker 1: it's only allowed more than a three in runs twice
- 54:43Speaker 1: and more than four and runs in one of. Those
- 54:46Speaker 1: so he is doing well right. Now anaheim does not
- 54:49Speaker 1: have a whole lot of history Against only two of
- 54:50Speaker 1: their hitters have ever seen him but before A dell
- 54:52Speaker 1: and O'hop ohapa has been, hurt BUT i guess he's.
- 54:55Speaker 2: Back adele has been dealing.
- 54:58Speaker 1: With VERTIGO i don't know what's and obvious watching people
- 55:02Speaker 1: fall off roofs or. WHAT i have no, idea but
- 55:04Speaker 1: the two of them have actually done okay Against priests
- 55:07Speaker 1: during the past five at. Bats they're three for five,
- 55:09Speaker 1: often but with no extra base, hits no, strikeouts no,
- 55:12Speaker 1: walks ONE, rbi so not a whole lot you can
- 55:16Speaker 1: really take away from. THAT i do Think priests probably
- 55:18Speaker 1: does still have the edge in this, game THOUGH i
- 55:20Speaker 1: Think milwaukee does pretty much have the edge across the. Board,
- 55:23Speaker 1: ACTUALLY i think they have the better, bullpen, offense and starting,
- 55:26Speaker 1: pitcher even if it's not that. Significant they're a big,
- 55:29Speaker 1: favorite though they're off minus one seventy five to minus
- 55:31Speaker 1: one eighty. Five AND i do keep talking about How
- 55:32Speaker 1: anaheim is not even as good as their record. Looks
- 55:35Speaker 1: they're they have a really bad run. Differential fifty percent
- 55:38Speaker 1: of tickets are On, anaheim eighty four percent of the
- 55:41Speaker 1: cash On. MILWAUKEE i don't understand How anaheim would be
- 55:45Speaker 1: public in any way in this game like that doesn't
- 55:47Speaker 1: make any sense to. ME i, MEAN i could see
- 55:49Speaker 1: maybe the professionals being on The milwaukee side to some,
- 55:52Speaker 1: extent but it just seems ridiculous That anaheim would be
- 55:55Speaker 1: taking public. MONEY i don't think that could really be the.
- 55:57Speaker 1: CASE i, mean you, COULD i, guess look to A
- 56:02Speaker 1: milwaukee run line in this, one but that's a little bit.
- 56:04Speaker 1: WORRIOUSOME i know they easily did it the last two games,
- 56:08Speaker 1: though but again you're asking them to cover that when
- 56:11Speaker 1: they might not bat in the ninth, inning which AGAIN
- 56:13Speaker 1: i know they didn't bat in the ninth inning the
- 56:14Speaker 1: last couple of, days and they still did. It but,
- 56:18Speaker 1: yeah it's a little bit. Risky SO i THINK i
- 56:19Speaker 1: WILL i will stay away from that one as. Well
- 56:23Speaker 1: San francisco at The, dodgers this is a new. Series
- 56:27Speaker 1: The dodgers are staying at. Home they're coming up a
- 56:29Speaker 1: big series over Against. Philadelphia though or they did win
- 56:32Speaker 1: the last game yesterday five to, nothing a salvage the
- 56:34Speaker 1: rest of that. Series The dodgers still trying to make
- 56:37Speaker 1: sure that they win this. Division San diego's close to.
- 56:40Speaker 1: Them you, know this is the type of series That
- 56:42Speaker 1: San francisco will show up, for even though they're probably
- 56:44Speaker 1: out of it at this. Point San francisco did just
- 56:46Speaker 1: break a four game losing streak Beating. Arizona So San
- 56:51Speaker 1: francisco is in a decent situational spot in my opinion.
- 56:55Speaker 1: Here when you break a lost streak like, that sometimes
- 56:58Speaker 1: it gives you some new. MOMENTUM i know they're, traveling
- 57:01Speaker 1: but it's just From arizona To la not a huge
- 57:03Speaker 1: travel spot. There And la did just beat them In
- 57:06Speaker 1: San francisco two out of three and kind of embarrassed
- 57:09Speaker 1: them in the last two. Games SO i, mean as
- 57:12Speaker 1: If San francisco needs more motivation to show up against The,
- 57:14Speaker 1: dodgers they have a little bit more because it's a
- 57:16Speaker 1: little bit of quick road revenge. Here So San francisco
- 57:19Speaker 1: is probably gonna be, motivated although again so will The,
- 57:23Speaker 1: dodgers but they are coming up of a big series
- 57:24Speaker 1: Against philly where they won that last game against, them
- 57:27Speaker 1: so possible letdown spot, maybe even though this is still
- 57:30Speaker 1: a pretty big divisional. Series San francisco has the better
- 57:33Speaker 1: of the two. Bullpens they didn't use too much of it,
- 57:37Speaker 1: yesterday even though the usage is heavy over the last
- 57:39Speaker 1: couple of, days but their bullpen is still better than
- 57:42Speaker 1: The dodgers'. Bullpen dodgers' bullpen's. Bad their usag just heavy
- 57:45Speaker 1: the last couple of days, too and they'll not as heavy.
- 57:47Speaker 1: YESTERDAY i got to Give San francisco to the bullpen.
- 57:49Speaker 1: Edge dodgers obviously have an offensive. Edge they are the
- 57:52Speaker 1: much better, offense especially at. Home starting pitching on the
- 57:56Speaker 1: surface looks like it would be an under type of.
- 57:58Speaker 1: Game we have two good starting, pitchers But i'm not
- 58:00Speaker 1: quite sure about. That Logan webb is pitching for The.
- 58:03Speaker 1: Giants he's been good as. Usual three point three FOUR
- 58:07Speaker 1: era one point two to six whip is a little bit. High,
- 58:09Speaker 1: uh not quite as good on the road three point
- 58:12Speaker 1: five to four ROAD era hasn't really been that good this,
- 58:15Speaker 1: Month so that's something to keep an eye. On, like
- 58:18Speaker 1: is he actually wearing down a little bit at the
- 58:20Speaker 1: end of the season.
- 58:20Speaker 2: Here you wouldn't.
- 58:21Speaker 1: Think, so because he's just used to throwing a lot of.
- 58:24Speaker 1: INNINGS i mean that his that's his. Thing he throws
- 58:26Speaker 1: a lot of. Innings but this month he hasn't been as.
- 58:29Speaker 1: Good in three, starts five point four E ra nineteen
- 58:31Speaker 1: to six strike a walk right shows. Okay he's a
- 58:34Speaker 1: lot a lot of hits, though and most of the
- 58:37Speaker 1: damage came in his last start against The. Dodgers so
- 58:40Speaker 1: The dodgers hit him around for six ironed. Runs on
- 58:42Speaker 1: ten hits in four and he's pitched five strikeouts is,
- 58:45Speaker 1: fine but two walks not. Good he's just not good
- 58:49Speaker 1: against The dodgers. Man so The, dodgers they're familiar with,
- 58:51Speaker 1: them they know his, game and they hit him well,
- 58:53Speaker 1: usually so he might not do well here. Either two
- 58:57Speaker 1: hundred and twenty nine at bats for The dodgers against,
- 58:59Speaker 1: him very familiar with. Him forty two to twenty four
- 59:02Speaker 1: strike up walk ratio is not very good for. Him
- 59:04Speaker 1: three thirty six average allowed in nine to thirty nine ohps,
- 59:07Speaker 1: web he's not very good against The dodgers, man even
- 59:10Speaker 1: though he is good, generally this is a bad matchup for.
- 59:13Speaker 1: Him he's going up Against Yoshinobu, yamamoto who is the
- 59:17Speaker 1: better of the two pitchers. Anyway two point six SIX
- 59:20Speaker 1: era for, him oh excuse a point nine to eight
- 59:23Speaker 1: whip good numbers on the. Season he's actually a little
- 59:26Speaker 1: bit worse at home three point THREE. Era but he's
- 59:30Speaker 1: totally on point right. Now. Man his last three, outings
- 59:32Speaker 1: he's gone seven more innings in each of. Them he's
- 59:35Speaker 1: allowed one on run in each of, them and he
- 59:36Speaker 1: has ten strikeouts in each of them for a thirty
- 59:39Speaker 1: to three strikeout walk. Ratio that's, Man he's really really
- 59:43Speaker 1: in a good form right. Now and his last start
- 59:45Speaker 1: was Against sarrancisco and he one hit them through seven
- 59:47Speaker 1: innings in one of those outings THAT i just, mentioned
- 59:51Speaker 1: with one walk in that particular. One AND i know
- 59:54Speaker 1: that Means San francisco is recently familiar with, them but
- 59:56Speaker 1: they had already faced him before and they just have
- 59:58Speaker 1: not done well Against he's pretty much dominated.
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: Them in sixty six at.
- 1:00:02Speaker 1: Bats he has twenty two, strikeouts seven walks against, them
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: one fifty two average allowed five oh six. Ops SO
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: i think you have to give You ama mode of
- 1:00:11Speaker 1: the starting pitching edge in this. One. MAN i don't
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: think The dodgers have a bullpen. Edge SO i could
- 1:00:16Speaker 1: see maybe looking towards The dodgers first five inning run
- 1:00:19Speaker 1: line and then at least obviously the bat and all
- 1:00:21Speaker 1: of those, INNINGS i might be able to find about
- 1:00:23Speaker 1: a minus half run line in that one enough to
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: pay too much. For that might be the way THAT
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: i would lean in the, game because it looks like
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: it's just such a matchup. Disparity even THOUGH i do
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: Think web is generally, GOOD i just don't think this
- 1:00:33Speaker 1: is a good matchup for. Him, yeah The dodgers are public,
- 1:00:36Speaker 1: though ninety six percent tickets nine to nine percent of
- 1:00:39Speaker 1: the cash coming in on, them so they're. Public looks
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: like maybe they're getting the money as. Well they rough
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: of minus one fifty five to minus one sixty uh,
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: so So i'm going to consider. There and then money
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: is coming in on the under a little. Bit it's
- 1:00:51Speaker 1: gone down from eight to seven and a half on the,
- 1:00:53Speaker 1: total eighty six percent of tickets and eighty four percent
- 1:00:56Speaker 1: of the cash on the. Over so it looks like
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: the cash is coming in so than the ticket percentage
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: on the, over so money on the. Under but, again
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: web doesn't match up. Well AND i don't think you
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: trust The dodgers' bullpen, Either SO i don't really want
- 1:01:09Speaker 1: to look towards a total really in any fashion in this. Game,
- 1:01:12Speaker 1: AGAIN i think it would Be dodgers' first five innings
- 1:01:14Speaker 1: run line really be the only way to play. That
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: let's get to the best. Bets we'll do it now
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: because my best bet is on a baseball, game And
- 1:01:23Speaker 1: i'm gonna kind of break one of my rules. Here
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: i'm gonna go with The Cincinnati reds money line minus
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: one twenty if you want to go with this first five,
- 1:01:30Speaker 1: innings BECAUSE i think their biggest edge in this game
- 1:01:32Speaker 1: is with the starting pitching, matchup because yes they're playing The.
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: Cubs The cubs have a better, Bullpen so if you
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: want to go first five, innings you could do, that
- 1:01:41Speaker 1: but you have to pay more for the first five
- 1:01:43Speaker 1: innings For. Cincinnati So i'm opting to go with the
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: cheaper price and hoping that our starting pitching will be
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: enough of advantage and it kind of carries into the
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: bullpens and that we get you, know The cubs bullpen
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: has to come into the game earlier and, such and
- 1:01:55Speaker 1: then that kind of just carries through the rest of the.
- 1:01:57Speaker 1: Game sometimes that's the way That i'll. GO i, KNOW
- 1:02:00Speaker 1: i basically did that With Kansas. City, Yes Kansas city's
- 1:02:03Speaker 1: bullpen is better Than, cincinnatis but if you look at the,
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: BULLPENS i, mean it's not too much of a disparity.
- 1:02:09Speaker 1: Here The cubs are twelfth than. Bullpen he are at
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: three point seventy, Five cincinnati's at eighteenth and four point h.
- 1:02:15Speaker 1: Nine it's not too much, Different So i'm okay with
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: doing it this. Way cubs have had heavy bullpen used
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: to d the last couple of, days so that's something
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: to keep in mind. Too other their bullpen isn't exactly
- 1:02:26Speaker 1: totally rested. Here The reds actually have a somewhat more rested,
- 1:02:30Speaker 1: bullpen so that might be a better sign. Here AND i,
- 1:02:34Speaker 1: know AS i, Said i'm breaking one of my rules
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: because this is typically a spot where it wouldn't be
- 1:02:39Speaker 1: that good of a. Spot cincinnatis are turning on from
- 1:02:41Speaker 1: a long road, trip AND i usually worn against playing
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: teams are turning on from road. TRIPS i know it's
- 1:02:46Speaker 1: usually a bad. Spot you've been away from. Home they've
- 1:02:48Speaker 1: been away for a long. Time they went out To
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: San diego The, a's but they did come back to this.
- 1:02:54Speaker 1: Region they were back In Saint, louis so the last
- 1:02:56Speaker 1: leg of this trip wasn't that. Bad they did play
- 1:02:59Speaker 1: At Saint louis, yesterday SO i know they're traveling back
- 1:03:01Speaker 1: home From Saint louis today or from yet they did last.
- 1:03:05Speaker 2: NIGHT i assume they're.
- 1:03:06Speaker 1: Able to win the series Against Saint, louis so they
- 1:03:08Speaker 1: kind of reverse course after a bad series at The.
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: A's so they do have some. Momentum but a lot
- 1:03:14Speaker 1: of this is about is going to be about the motivation, here.
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: Man well it always, is and you know that's part
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: of the reason for. That and that's basically what you're talking.
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: About when you have that home return home distraction, spot
- 1:03:24Speaker 1: a team has to get back to home, life family, life.
- 1:03:26Speaker 1: Whatever that tends to be a. Distraction it kind of
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: reduces their. Motivation but you, know The, CUBS i, mean
- 1:03:32Speaker 1: excuse The reds can't afford to be distracted. Here. Man
- 1:03:34Speaker 1: The cubs are coming into their. Place it's a big
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: divisional series. Here The cubs are ahead of them in the.
- 1:03:40Speaker 1: Division you, know The reds have to show off for,
- 1:03:43Speaker 1: this and The reds are sitting at five, hundred which
- 1:03:45Speaker 1: is a little bit more of a mental. Motivator when
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: you're sitting at five, hundred you don't want to fall
- 1:03:49Speaker 1: back below five. Hundred and of, course the biggest motivator
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: here is That cincinnati is still in the Wildcard, hodge
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: so they they want wins. Man SO i don't think
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: this is a, game but they're going to be distracted
- 1:03:59Speaker 1: on the return on home. Spot even THOUGH i know
- 1:04:01Speaker 1: it's a little bit risky to jump on a team
- 1:04:03Speaker 1: that's running on from a road, TRIP i get. It
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: USUALLY i would say don't do, it BUT i think
- 1:04:09Speaker 1: the matchup is good, here AND i think there are
- 1:04:10Speaker 1: some motivational angles to fade The cubs here because they
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: just clinched a playoff. Spot, man The, cubs they might
- 1:04:16Speaker 1: be feeling pretty high on themselves right. Now they just Swept.
- 1:04:19Speaker 1: Pittsburgh they're traveling as, well though it's only From pittsburgh To,
- 1:04:22Speaker 1: cincinnati so not a huge travel spot for them. Either,
- 1:04:26Speaker 1: WELL i mean it's a bigger travel spot For. CINCINNATI
- 1:04:28Speaker 1: i should say it's not a huge travel spot for The,
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: cubs so that shouldn't really affect. Them but they did
- 1:04:32Speaker 1: just clinch a playoff spot, man and The cubs pretty,
- 1:04:35Speaker 1: MUCH i think they pretty much know at this.
- 1:04:37Speaker 2: Point they can't catch The milwaukee highly.
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: Unlikely SO i think The cubs kind of, know, yeah
- 1:04:42Speaker 1: we're in one of the wildcard. Spots SO i think
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: they probably celebrated a little bit because they clinched a playoff,
- 1:04:46Speaker 1: spot and sometimes that can give you a little bit
- 1:04:48Speaker 1: of a let down in the next.
- 1:04:50Speaker 2: Game SO i don't think it's a.
- 1:04:51Speaker 1: Great motivational spot for The cubs. Here and then we're
- 1:04:54Speaker 1: gonna look at the starting pitching. Matchup this game is On. Fox.
- 1:04:58Speaker 1: Yeah luckily the game THAT i like over the last
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: couple of days have actually been like bigger, games so
- 1:05:03Speaker 1: some of them are. Televised you also get The yankees
- 1:05:06Speaker 1: In baltimore On. FOX i don't know why people would
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: want to watch. That In San, Francisco la is kind
- 1:05:11Speaker 1: of a more interesting matchup that one's ON Mlb. Network,
- 1:05:17Speaker 1: yeah so The cubs celebrated live ON Mlb network on
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: A tv and that's good to. Know thank You jeffrey
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: for pointing that. Out so that does kind of indicate
- 1:05:24Speaker 1: that there might be more of a. Letdown so that's
- 1:05:26Speaker 1: something you want to look. At. Man like with my,
- 1:05:28Speaker 1: football you remember last week with My miami Play miami
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: Of florida last week in college. Football if you watch
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: my football, stuff one of the THINGS i was talking
- 1:05:37Speaker 1: about was how they were playing Against South florida And South.
- 1:05:40Speaker 1: Florida even though normally they'd want to be focused for
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: a game Against, miami they celebrated to the max when
- 1:05:45Speaker 1: they Beat. Florida it was just such a monumental win for.
- 1:05:48Speaker 1: THEM i don't think they'd ever Beaten florida. Before In
- 1:05:50Speaker 1: florida is still the big boy in that, state regardless
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: of whether or not they're actually that good this. Year
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: so And i'm gonna be talking about those teams, again
- 1:05:58Speaker 1: most likely for one of my actual plays this. Week
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: so be on the lookout for The College football, show
- 1:06:03Speaker 1: which will that would be A friday night talking about
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: The saturday. Games but, anyway, yeah like that was the
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: Situation South. Florida they just over celebrate to the. Max
- 1:06:12Speaker 1: i'm not saying The cubs did that, year but The,
- 1:06:14Speaker 1: cubs as you, said did. Celebrate SO i think it
- 1:06:16Speaker 1: could be a little bit of a letdown spot for that.
- 1:06:18Speaker 1: Reason and of course a big part of this handicap
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: is the starting pitching. Matchup we're gonna Fade Colin ray
- 1:06:24Speaker 1: here for The. Cubs he's a pretty mediocre, pitcher which
- 1:06:27Speaker 1: has been the case throughout his. Career he actually was
- 1:06:30Speaker 1: pitching In japan for a while because things didn't really
- 1:06:33Speaker 1: pan out in the. Majors he went To, japan kind
- 1:06:36Speaker 1: of changed some, things pitched there for a, while came
- 1:06:38Speaker 1: back to the. Majors he's been serviceable this. Year four
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: point two to THREE, era one point three to one,
- 1:06:45Speaker 1: whip not great. Numbers he's a little bit worse on
- 1:06:48Speaker 1: the road four point four to SEVENTY, ra and of
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: course this is a hitter friendly ballpark man In. Cincinnati
- 1:06:56Speaker 1: he's been mediocre over the last month to four point
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: THREE rara this, MONTH i should, say in three. Starts
- 1:07:02Speaker 1: he hasn't a lot more than three on runs in
- 1:07:04Speaker 1: any of his, starts but hasn't gone more than five
- 1:07:06Speaker 1: and a third innings in any of.
- 1:07:07Speaker 2: Them he's not been going deep into.
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: Games he hasn't gone more than five and two thirds
- 1:07:11Speaker 1: Since august ninth against a pretty Weak Saint louis, lineup
- 1:07:15Speaker 1: and to find the last time he did that prior
- 1:07:17Speaker 1: to that Was july tenth Against, minnesota another week. Lineup
- 1:07:21Speaker 1: so he's not really lasting long into games at this.
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: POINT i know he does have a fourteen to three
- 1:07:25Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio this, month which isn't, bad but
- 1:07:30Speaker 1: he's not totally on point right, now not going too
- 1:07:32Speaker 1: deep into these. Games SO i think we're we should
- 1:07:34Speaker 1: get a deep routing out Of cincinnati's starter, here who
- 1:07:37Speaker 1: is the much younger starter and probably the fresher, one
- 1:07:40Speaker 1: not just not fresh as then he's, naughty although maybe he.
- 1:07:44Speaker 1: IS i think we'll get the deeper performance out of
- 1:07:47Speaker 1: him that doesn't sound the deeper performance will penetrate this game. More,
- 1:07:53Speaker 1: Man oh my, God i'm losing my mind. Here but,
- 1:07:57Speaker 1: YEAH i think that's what we'll get out Of, cincinnati
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: which we'll talk. About But ray Against cincinnati part of this.
- 1:08:02Speaker 1: Handicap his numbers are not good Against cincinnati in the.
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: Past they have a lot of familiarity with. Them one
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: hundred and seventeen at, bats twenty six to eight strike
- 1:08:09Speaker 1: a walk ratio isn't bad for, him but he's a
- 1:08:11Speaker 1: lot of three thirty three average and a very high
- 1:08:14Speaker 1: nine to ninety one. Ohps they have three, doubles three,
- 1:08:16Speaker 1: triples and eight home runs off. Him Dal La cruz
- 1:08:20Speaker 1: pretty much dominates, him seven for sixteen with two of them,
- 1:08:23Speaker 1: runs seven RBIs and a. Walk benson is seven for
- 1:08:26Speaker 1: fifteen with a home run off. Him SO i don't
- 1:08:29Speaker 1: mention the player props that much anymore Because i'm not
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: really a props. Guy but give some props where there
- 1:08:35Speaker 1: DUE i guess you could maybe look for some hitting props.
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: THERE i always recommend hits plus runs plus RBIs because that,
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: way if you get a, walk you can still at
- 1:08:43Speaker 1: least potentially get AN rbi or a run out of
- 1:08:46Speaker 1: that rather than going with total, bases which walks basically
- 1:08:49Speaker 1: eliminate the bat, completely so you get nothing out of
- 1:08:53Speaker 1: it if they. Walk but, anyway, yeah So ray does
- 1:08:57Speaker 1: not of good numbers Against. Cincinnati on the other, side
- 1:09:00Speaker 1: AS i, said we have a, YOUNGER i, think more
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: talented pitcher With Hunter korean on the mount for The,
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: reds even THOUGH i know he goes out there on
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: the mountain and he starts like puking all over the place,
- 1:09:10Speaker 1: sometimes And i'm not too worried about. That he's got
- 1:09:12Speaker 1: a three point oh ONE era this, season a point
- 1:09:15Speaker 1: nine to nine. WHIP a whip below one is very very. Good,
- 1:09:17Speaker 1: obviously he's been better at, home even though this is
- 1:09:21Speaker 1: a pitcher friendly park or excerusly this is a hitter friendly,
- 1:09:23Speaker 1: park whatever the case, is he's better at home one
- 1:09:27Speaker 1: point six NINETY ra this, year and his home run
- 1:09:30Speaker 1: rate is actually way worse than the. Road he's allowed
- 1:09:32Speaker 1: twice as many home runs on the road as he
- 1:09:35Speaker 1: has at home this, season and it's in way fewer
- 1:09:37Speaker 1: innings on the, Road SO i don't know how you
- 1:09:40Speaker 1: can figure. That but he's been way better at this.
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: Ballpark so keep somebody to keep in mind there he
- 1:09:45Speaker 1: had a bad start last time, out but that was
- 1:09:47Speaker 1: at The a's, stadium and you know a lot of
- 1:09:49Speaker 1: times the guy will struggle out there in that. Stadium
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: it's just a weird stadium to pitch In TRIPLE a.
- 1:09:54Speaker 1: STADIUM i know it's a good lineup at The. A's
- 1:09:57Speaker 1: The cubs lineup is good. Too Uh, So, yeah The
- 1:09:59Speaker 1: cubs abviously do have the better offense here out of these.
- 1:10:01Speaker 1: Two but, yeah The cubs were good, offense but they're
- 1:10:06Speaker 1: actually worse than The a's offense at this. POINT i
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: know it's by a slight, amount but, Still cubs offense
- 1:10:11Speaker 1: actually hasn't been as good. Recently SO i think The
- 1:10:14Speaker 1: a's lineup in that environment was a little bit trickier
- 1:10:17Speaker 1: For green than this one will. Be this is more
- 1:10:19Speaker 1: a situation that he's used to and he. Faced look
- 1:10:21Speaker 1: at what he faced before. That he faced a couple
- 1:10:23Speaker 1: of good offenses before. Then it did really well Against
- 1:10:26Speaker 1: toronto and The mets at. Home by the, way both
- 1:10:28Speaker 1: those starts were at, home and he held them each
- 1:10:30Speaker 1: to one aarn run in six and a third and seven.
- 1:10:32Speaker 1: Innings so facings a good offense at, home he did better,
- 1:10:36Speaker 1: so and he also shut out The phillies at home
- 1:10:40Speaker 1: the previous. Time he faced a good offense before, that
- 1:10:42Speaker 1: so he's been doing well against good offense at. HOME
- 1:10:45Speaker 1: i know he had kind of a mediocre start at
- 1:10:47Speaker 1: home against The cubs back In, may only last of
- 1:10:49Speaker 1: four innings tour and, runs allowed two strikeouts to. Walks
- 1:10:52Speaker 1: it wasn't a horrible performance out of, him, THOUGH i
- 1:10:56Speaker 1: think he might do better here though he's the better
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: pitcher and against The cubs, generally he actually does have good,
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: numbers as you can see. Here for the most, part they're.
- 1:11:03Speaker 1: Good he's allowed too much, power but his numbers are pretty.
- 1:11:06Speaker 1: Good in eighty nine at, BATS i know they're familiar with.
- 1:11:08Speaker 1: Him he's helping to a very low two to h
- 1:11:10Speaker 1: two batting. AVERAGE i know the seven eighty four ops
- 1:11:12Speaker 1: is a little bit. HIGH i worry about that a
- 1:11:14Speaker 1: little bit because he has allowed six home runs to.
- 1:11:17Speaker 1: THEM a lot of it Is suzuki doing a lot
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: of that damage seven to fifteen with two of them.
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: Runs for the most, part they don't really have other
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: guys who put up like great numbers against. Him turner
- 1:11:28Speaker 1: in eight at bats has a decent batting average against.
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: Them but other than, that nobody else has really hit
- 1:11:32Speaker 1: him that, well So i'm not as concerned about. That
- 1:11:34Speaker 1: twenty eight to eleven strike out walk ratio is not the,
- 1:11:38Speaker 1: best but it's still pretty. GOOD i, mean, Overall Hunter
- 1:11:40Speaker 1: green very good pitcher, though, man so we're gonna roll
- 1:11:43Speaker 1: with him in this. One by the, way he does
- 1:11:45Speaker 1: have a twenty two to seven strike at walk ra
- 1:11:47Speaker 1: shuer this, month which is pretty solid to a very
- 1:11:49Speaker 1: high strikeout. Rate, again had double digit strikeouts last time
- 1:11:52Speaker 1: he was in this stadium in that one, hit seven
- 1:11:55Speaker 1: inning performance against The mets four point zero TWO era this,
- 1:11:58Speaker 1: month and that's despite that had bad start last time
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: out against The. A's he's back home here where he's.
- 1:12:04Speaker 1: Better so we're gonna roll with. That will go With
- 1:12:05Speaker 1: Hunter green in that. One that'll be Uh cincinnati minus
- 1:12:10Speaker 1: won twenty money line on that. One you Want rockies And,
- 1:12:15Speaker 1: REDS i don't know IF i would.
- 1:12:17Speaker 2: WANT i don't THINK i would want to touch The.
- 1:12:19Speaker 1: Rockies, Man Oh, god that seems Too rocky to. ME i,
- 1:12:23Speaker 1: Mean Tanner gordon has been better, Recently that's that is.
- 1:12:26Speaker 1: True he does have unfamiliarity Against. MIAMI i really don't
- 1:12:29Speaker 1: trust The rockies BULLPEND i mean, YEAH i mean it
- 1:12:33Speaker 1: is a game Where miami might not totally pay attention to,
- 1:12:36Speaker 1: Them so there is that maybe, SITUATIONALLY i could see something.
- 1:12:39Speaker 1: There maybe Potentially miami is fatable, there BUT i really
- 1:12:43Speaker 1: wouldn't want to do, it. Man of, Course well you know.
- 1:12:45Speaker 1: ME i, MEAN i just do straight. BETTING i think
- 1:12:47Speaker 1: The reds is the, better the better lookout of those. Two.
- 1:12:51Speaker 1: Though of, course now THAT i say that it's gonna
- 1:12:52Speaker 1: the opposite is gonna wind up. Happening let's talk about
- 1:12:56Speaker 1: football and then we'll get out of. Here we do
- 1:12:57Speaker 1: have one college football game THAT i really don't. Think
- 1:13:00Speaker 1: it's very. INTERESTING i, MEAN i don't know who's going
- 1:13:02Speaker 1: to tune into this. Game it's also competing with The
- 1:13:04Speaker 1: thursday NIGHT. Nfl we Have rice At. Charlotte, baby great
- 1:13:09Speaker 1: great matchup, here matchup of Heavyweights rice And.
- 1:13:12Speaker 2: Charlotte oh my.
- 1:13:13Speaker 1: God these two. TEAMS i think this is a conference.
- 1:13:17Speaker 1: Game these two teams are both in The American Athletic.
- 1:13:20Speaker 1: Conference maybe it's just called The American, now whatever it.
- 1:13:22Speaker 1: Is money is coming in On. Charlotte fifty percent of
- 1:13:27Speaker 1: tickets are On, rice sixty four percent of the cash On.
- 1:13:29Speaker 1: Charlotte the total the numbers dropped from four and a
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: half to two and a, half so some significant movement
- 1:13:34Speaker 1: coming in Playing charlotte as the home. Mounder, driney it
- 1:13:36Speaker 1: just seems like every week the professionals are just Playing,
- 1:13:39Speaker 1: charlotte And i'm not really totally sure. Why because the
- 1:13:43Speaker 1: professionals came in and they wanted to Take charlotte against
- 1:13:46Speaker 1: App state and Against North, carolina And charlotte pretty much
- 1:13:49Speaker 1: got embarrassed in both of those. Games their offense. Sucks
- 1:13:52Speaker 1: and then last time out they barely Beat, monmouth who's
- 1:13:55Speaker 1: AN fcs. Team charlotte was only two and a half
- 1:13:58Speaker 1: pay favorite in that game At holmes and they actually.
- 1:14:01Speaker 1: COVERED i think Mod but is actually not that bad
- 1:14:03Speaker 1: of AN fcs, Team BUT i think they're actually fairly
- 1:14:07Speaker 1: good for AN fcs. Team but, Still, Charlotte i'm not. Impressed.
- 1:14:09Speaker 1: Man this game is gonna be ON espn if you
- 1:14:12Speaker 1: want to watch. It BUT i just don't REALLY i
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: don't see the, angle, MAN i Mean, Rice they're not
- 1:14:17Speaker 1: a good offense, either though they only put up fourteen
- 1:14:20Speaker 1: points Against Louisiana La. Fayette La fayette is a. Team
- 1:14:24Speaker 1: Now here's the. Thing rice runs the ball a lot
- 1:14:27Speaker 1: because they actually started to implementing the triple, option And
- 1:14:30Speaker 1: Louisiana lafayette there is a run heavy attack as, well
- 1:14:34Speaker 1: so that's probably why that game was solo. Scoring both
- 1:14:37Speaker 1: teams just constantly run the. Ball and Then, rice you,
- 1:14:40Speaker 1: know against their in city rival Of houston there Because
- 1:14:44Speaker 1: rice is In, houston they just couldn't even compete, there
- 1:14:48Speaker 1: And houston's jacent but still In houston decent, defense But
- 1:14:52Speaker 1: rice only put up nine points. There and Then rice
- 1:14:54Speaker 1: finally was able to, score but it was Against Prairie
- 1:14:57Speaker 1: VIEW a AND m last time, out AN fcs THAT
- 1:15:00Speaker 1: i don't think is a very good. One so neither
- 1:15:02Speaker 1: of these teams are impressive at. All man both teams
- 1:15:05Speaker 1: have been really bad. Offensively rice is a triple option.
- 1:15:08Speaker 1: Attack now Will charlotte be prepared for the triple? OPTION
- 1:15:12Speaker 1: i would say yes. Probably rice is new to running
- 1:15:16Speaker 1: the triple. OPTIONS i don't know how effective their triple
- 1:15:18Speaker 1: option really is at this point because it's a new system.
- 1:15:21Speaker 1: THERE i don't even know if they have the personnel
- 1:15:23Speaker 1: for it. Yet Like, RICE i think they brought it
- 1:15:24Speaker 1: in a new coach who's running, it and he probably
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: doesn't even have his like triple option personnel. Yet this
- 1:15:29Speaker 1: is a struggling offense man For. Rice charlotte should be
- 1:15:33Speaker 1: able to defend against, it, though just because they, KNOW i,
- 1:15:36Speaker 1: MEAN i know they're not a good, team but they
- 1:15:38Speaker 1: know how to defend the triple option because they do
- 1:15:39Speaker 1: Face navy at LEAST i think they Face navy the
- 1:15:42Speaker 1: last two. Years navy And ARMY i think are both
- 1:15:44Speaker 1: in this, conference Although CHARLOTTE i think his only Face
- 1:15:47Speaker 1: navy the last couple of. Years But navy has a
- 1:15:49Speaker 1: better option attack than Arm even THOUGH i know they're
- 1:15:52Speaker 1: running kind of the wing te there, now it's still
- 1:15:54Speaker 1: kind of a variant of the. Option So charlotte has
- 1:15:58Speaker 1: seen this type of offense. Before rice doesn't run it particularly,
- 1:16:01Speaker 1: well SO i do Think charlotte should be able to
- 1:16:03Speaker 1: defend against. IT i think what you're looking at here
- 1:16:06Speaker 1: is two terrible. Offenses SO i actually think the under
- 1:16:08Speaker 1: is probably the way to look at The this is
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: gonna be a hideous, game. Dude total is very low
- 1:16:13Speaker 1: for a college. Game it'sat for forty three and alfter
- 1:16:15Speaker 1: forty two, already so you have lost some. Value forty
- 1:16:18Speaker 1: one is also a key. Number though we see fifty
- 1:16:20Speaker 1: nine percent of take it sixty seven percent of the
- 1:16:21Speaker 1: cash on the, over so the cash percent is kind
- 1:16:24Speaker 1: of on the. Over but, YEAH i, MEAN i think
- 1:16:27Speaker 1: under is probably the better way to look at that.
- 1:16:29Speaker 1: Game these offenses are just. Bad they're just, pitiful AND
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: i do Think charlotte can at least hold That rice
- 1:16:35Speaker 1: offense and. CHECK i don't think either defense is really
- 1:16:37Speaker 1: that good, either BUT i, MEAN i just don't know
- 1:16:40Speaker 1: what these offenses are even particularly capable. Of and you, Know,
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: rice just the way that they run their. Offense they
- 1:16:45Speaker 1: just don't score a, lot which is also probably why
- 1:16:48Speaker 1: the money's coming in Towards, charlotte WHICH i guess if
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: you're thinking the game is gonna be lower, scoring it
- 1:16:52Speaker 1: does kind of make sense of the. UNDERDOG i guess
- 1:16:54Speaker 1: we'll kind of be able to cover that number because
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: the points are all worth. More and it makes even more.
- 1:17:00Speaker 2: Since when it's a home.
- 1:17:01Speaker 1: Underdog the home underdogs have not worked out too well
- 1:17:04Speaker 1: in THE, nfl though we don't have one, tonight but
- 1:17:07Speaker 1: the books have kind of adjusted to. THAT i, mean
- 1:17:09Speaker 1: the whole, underdogs especially in, primetime used to be this huge,
- 1:17:12Speaker 1: phenomenon AND i KNOW i lost a moment The raiders
- 1:17:15Speaker 1: this past WEEKCAUSE i thought it was a good spot
- 1:17:16Speaker 1: for The. Raiders but even if that line was where
- 1:17:19Speaker 1: like it would have been like probably five five and
- 1:17:22Speaker 1: a half maybe like a few years ago in THE, nfl,
- 1:17:24Speaker 1: like the books have definitely had to adjust to accommodate
- 1:17:27Speaker 1: for how good those home underdogs are in, primetime which
- 1:17:30Speaker 1: IS i guess part of the reason why a lot
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: of THESE nfl favorites are, Covering but that's not the entire,
- 1:17:34Speaker 1: reason because even where the line would have been a
- 1:17:37Speaker 1: few years, ago The chargers still would have wound up
- 1:17:40Speaker 1: covering that. Number SO i don't know what the fuck
- 1:17:41Speaker 1: is going on with THE. Nfl. Man there are a
- 1:17:43Speaker 1: lot of favorites covering in THE, nfl which helps the,
- 1:17:47Speaker 1: public and it's not that helpful to the. Books so
- 1:17:49Speaker 1: will a favorite cover? TONIGHT i don't. Know we're talking
- 1:17:51Speaker 1: about a big favorite here THE Nfl Thursday night. Game
- 1:17:55Speaker 1: is it's a divisional, matchup, baby It's Dolphins, bills whichlast
- 1:18:00Speaker 1: couple of years this would have been a pretty tempting
- 1:18:02Speaker 1: matchup to, watch and now it's, LIKE i don't know
- 1:18:04Speaker 1: if it is because The. Dolphins hey, MAN i, mean
- 1:18:06Speaker 1: it's two of Versus Josh. Allen, right everybody wants to watch,
- 1:18:09Speaker 1: That but The dolphins have been so bad recently that
- 1:18:12Speaker 1: it seems like maybe nobody wants to watch this game The,
- 1:18:14Speaker 1: Bills whereas the last couple of, years The bills would
- 1:18:18Speaker 1: have only been like maybe around a touchdown favorite in this,
- 1:18:21Speaker 1: game maybe another up from ten and a half to
- 1:18:23Speaker 1: twelve year because The dolphins look so bad to start the.
- 1:18:27Speaker 1: Season SO i don't know if that line's totally, justified
- 1:18:30Speaker 1: to be. Honest eighty six percent tickets eighty one percent
- 1:18:32Speaker 1: of the. Cash so the public is on The bills
- 1:18:34Speaker 1: laying a big number only eighty one percent of the.
- 1:18:38Speaker 1: Cash does the money kind of disagreeing with The bill's side?
- 1:18:41Speaker 1: There it's A thursday night game, too, MAN i think
- 1:18:45Speaker 1: it's a little bit more difficult to lay a number like.
- 1:18:46Speaker 1: THIS a lot of The thursday night games tend to
- 1:18:48Speaker 1: be lower. Scoring the totals up from forty eight and
- 1:18:52Speaker 1: a half to. FIFTY i, mean it could hit fifty
- 1:18:54Speaker 1: one maybe because the public's probably gonna taken over. HERE
- 1:18:57Speaker 1: i mean they see two of Versus Josh. ALLEN i
- 1:18:59Speaker 1: mean they see what The bills have done. Recently The
- 1:19:01Speaker 1: bills have put.
- 1:19:01Speaker 2: Up a shit ton of.
- 1:19:02Speaker 1: Points they put up forty something Against, baltimore then whatever
- 1:19:06Speaker 1: they put up last week against The jets at least.
- 1:19:08Speaker 1: Thirty so the public is gonna look at that and
- 1:19:11Speaker 1: think this game is gonna go way over the total
- 1:19:13Speaker 1: up that up against The, dolphins who The dolphins could
- 1:19:16Speaker 1: score a. Bit they at least scored last week Against New,
- 1:19:18Speaker 1: England SO i think the public will come in on the,
- 1:19:21Speaker 1: Over so you might actually be able to get a
- 1:19:23Speaker 1: fifty one if you want the, Under AND i think
- 1:19:24Speaker 1: the under might be worth a look in this. One
- 1:19:27Speaker 1: sixty five percent tickets on the, over only sixty two
- 1:19:29Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the. Under on the quick turnaround, time,
- 1:19:32Speaker 1: man that tends to affect the offenses more than the.
- 1:19:34Speaker 1: Defenses and when it's a divisional, matchup that actually tends
- 1:19:38Speaker 1: to be the case where you actually do see the
- 1:19:40Speaker 1: unders start coming in because with the less prep time
- 1:19:43Speaker 1: a lot of, times well a lot of times the
- 1:19:45Speaker 1: defense can't prep for it in. Time with the short prep,
- 1:19:48Speaker 1: Time but when it's divisional opponents like, this they already
- 1:19:51Speaker 1: know these offenses pretty, well like The dolphins are already
- 1:19:54Speaker 1: used to traveling To buffalo and, whatever so the defenses
- 1:19:58Speaker 1: are more like already ready to go on the short
- 1:20:01Speaker 1: turn around time when it's opponents that just know each
- 1:20:03Speaker 1: other really. Well SO i think it could be an under,
- 1:20:06Speaker 1: here could be an ugly. GAME a lot of These
- 1:20:08Speaker 1: thursday games do tend to go under for those. Reasons.
- 1:20:10Speaker 1: ANYWAY i think the ones where you see more of
- 1:20:12Speaker 1: the over conducive matchups or teams games where the teams
- 1:20:16Speaker 1: are just not familiar with each. OTHER i ALSO i
- 1:20:18Speaker 1: do lean to The dolphins plus the points. Here, AGAIN
- 1:20:23Speaker 1: i think the line is just too high against The,
- 1:20:24Speaker 1: bills AND i don't really want to risk. It i'm
- 1:20:26Speaker 1: certainly not gonna give out a play on. This The,
- 1:20:28Speaker 1: DOLPHINS i don't think you can really trust. Them but The, dolphins,
- 1:20:31Speaker 1: again they are familiar with The. Bills they have not
- 1:20:34Speaker 1: been this big of an underdog really against The bills
- 1:20:36Speaker 1: since basically When tool was hurt in that playoff game
- 1:20:39Speaker 1: where they had to use what was their backup that
- 1:20:42Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks name he's still in THE, Nfl Skyler. Thompson
- 1:20:47Speaker 1: he's still in THE nfl, somewhere and The, dolphins by the,
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: way almost won that game out.
- 1:20:50Speaker 2: Right they covered in that, game which is kind of.
- 1:20:53Speaker 1: Ridiculous that was the last TIME i think The dolphins
- 1:20:55Speaker 1: were a double digit underdog against The. BILLS i could
- 1:20:58Speaker 1: be wrong about. That The bills did win both matchups last,
- 1:21:02Speaker 1: year though at least the one At MIAMI i think
- 1:21:04Speaker 1: was a bit.
- 1:21:05Speaker 2: Close SO i THINK i had The bills in that.
- 1:21:07Speaker 1: GAME i don't remember what the situation, was BUT i
- 1:21:09Speaker 1: think The bills are one of my plays that week
- 1:21:10Speaker 1: in that. One so it, is, though double revenge For
- 1:21:13Speaker 1: miami because they lost to The bills both times last.
- 1:21:16Speaker 1: Year miami probably will show up for this because it
- 1:21:18Speaker 1: is The. Bills The bills have been the dominant team
- 1:21:20Speaker 1: in the division for years, now and The dolphins their,
- 1:21:25Speaker 1: Coach mike, McDaniel his career is basically on the line right.
- 1:21:28Speaker 1: Now Man, like if they come in and they get
- 1:21:31Speaker 1: totally embarrassed, here he might get, fired like on the,
- 1:21:33Speaker 1: spot even THOUGH i know they're not expected to beat The,
- 1:21:35Speaker 1: bills but the way things are going with The, DOLPHINS
- 1:21:38Speaker 1: i think he's a pretty bad, coach to be. Honest
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: he's JUST i think he's a. MORON i, mean it's,
- 1:21:43Speaker 1: funny it's funny to watch. Him it allows for some
- 1:21:45Speaker 1: like pretty hilarious soundbites out of, Him but he's not
- 1:21:48Speaker 1: a good. COACH i think he's gonna get fired at some. Point,
- 1:21:52Speaker 1: man it might be sooner than. LATER i don't really
- 1:21:55Speaker 1: think that. OBVIOUSLY i don't think The dolphins are gonna
- 1:21:57Speaker 1: win this game, outright BUT i think they might be
- 1:21:59Speaker 1: able to hang in this, numb especially if it winds
- 1:22:01Speaker 1: up being a bit of a lower scoring. Game The
- 1:22:03Speaker 1: dolphins need to be able to establish the, run. Man
- 1:22:05Speaker 1: they have to be able to do, it and they
- 1:22:07Speaker 1: haven't been able to do it this. Season, LIKE i,
- 1:22:10Speaker 1: mean A chan is a decent running, back but they
- 1:22:12Speaker 1: mostly use them kind of in the passing, Game so
- 1:22:14Speaker 1: The dolphins don't really do a lot of. Running they
- 1:22:16Speaker 1: mostly do short passing and all this. Bullshit they're gonna
- 1:22:20Speaker 1: need to try to run the ball against The bills
- 1:22:21Speaker 1: because the only way they're gonna be able to hang
- 1:22:23Speaker 1: in this game is if they keep The bills offense
- 1:22:26Speaker 1: off the field for decent stretches in the. Games The
- 1:22:29Speaker 1: dolphins are gonna have to play possession offense here to do.
- 1:22:31Speaker 1: THAT i think they can do. THAT i, mean they
- 1:22:34Speaker 1: still have some pretty talented offensive. Players it just seems,
- 1:22:37Speaker 1: LIKE i, mean Like Tyrek hill is a head, Case
- 1:22:40Speaker 1: tua is not really that. GOOD i, MEAN i don't, know.
- 1:22:42Speaker 1: Man so, yeah it's it's a weird game for. SURE
- 1:22:46Speaker 1: i MEAN i don't love. It and The, dolphins of
- 1:22:47Speaker 1: course they're traveling up To, buffalo BUT i mean we're In. September,
- 1:22:51Speaker 1: Man it's not gonna be that cold at this, game
- 1:22:53Speaker 1: so like the weather's not gonna be a. Factory normally, say, Oh,
- 1:22:56Speaker 1: miami they're a warm weather. Team they don't play well
- 1:22:58Speaker 1: in the, cold which is actually, true but this is
- 1:23:00Speaker 1: not gonna be one of those. GAMES i, mean what's
- 1:23:03Speaker 1: the temperature gonna be in this? Game we see where's the, weather,
- 1:23:05Speaker 1: Baby it's gonna be sixty eight, Degrees SO i mean
- 1:23:08Speaker 1: we're talking About september, Here so that's not gonna be
- 1:23:10Speaker 1: a problem From. Miami so that it's actually a little
- 1:23:16Speaker 1: bit helpful That miami gets to play At buffalo this
- 1:23:18Speaker 1: early in the season because a lot of times they.
- 1:23:20Speaker 1: Don't and we did see, Well miami did have an
- 1:23:23Speaker 1: advantage a couple of years. AGO i Remember miami got
- 1:23:25Speaker 1: to play during the early part of the season at
- 1:23:28Speaker 1: home Against buffalo in the, heat AND i think that
- 1:23:31Speaker 1: that Effected buffalo. Negatively but if The dolphins have to
- 1:23:35Speaker 1: you know What i'm, Saying if The dolphins have to
- 1:23:36Speaker 1: Play buffalo during the cold weather in the, winter that's
- 1:23:39Speaker 1: a really bad spot for The.
- 1:23:40Speaker 2: Dolphins so they actually luck.
- 1:23:42Speaker 1: Out they get to play The bills in, good like
- 1:23:44Speaker 1: decently warm weather, Here so that's actually something where maybe
- 1:23:48Speaker 1: The dolphins will be able To, yeah like The dolphins
- 1:23:50Speaker 1: at least they're not gonna have that negative effect of
- 1:23:52Speaker 1: the cold. Here so those are my thoughts on that.
- 1:23:55Speaker 1: GAME i, mean it's it is what it, is what it.
- 1:23:57Speaker 1: IS i mean slightly into The dolphins plus to pay
- 1:24:00Speaker 1: and the under in that, game but it's not Something
- 1:24:02Speaker 1: i'm at all going crazy. ABOUT i don't want to
- 1:24:04Speaker 1: touch that game at. All the public is probably gonna
- 1:24:08Speaker 1: be looking towards AND i heard some professionals talking about
- 1:24:10Speaker 1: Maybe buffalo over their team total Because miami's defense has been,
- 1:24:14Speaker 1: really really, bad and yes they are really. Bad buffalo's
- 1:24:16Speaker 1: put up a lot of points last couple of. Weeks
- 1:24:18Speaker 1: i'd be maybe a little bit hesitant on. That if
- 1:24:20Speaker 1: it's gonna wind up being kind of a slower, game
- 1:24:22Speaker 1: maybe you won't See buffalo getting to. It but it's
- 1:24:25Speaker 1: a really high team, Total like it's one of the
- 1:24:27Speaker 1: highest team totals you'll ever. SEE i think it's like.
- 1:24:30Speaker 2: THIRTY i mean that's. Ridiculous it's so.
- 1:24:33Speaker 1: Ridiculous team total is usually, LIKE i don't, know like
- 1:24:37Speaker 1: a normal team total for a favorite you're probably gonna
- 1:24:40Speaker 1: see like in the low to mid twenties maybe and.
- 1:24:44Speaker 1: THIRTY i, mean it's just insane to see a team
- 1:24:46Speaker 1: total of that. Degree SO i mean it seems risky to.
- 1:24:49Speaker 1: ME i, mean they might not make it. There they,
- 1:24:51Speaker 1: might but they might not make it. There so those
- 1:24:54Speaker 1: are my. Thoughts the only play is The Cincinnati reds
- 1:24:56Speaker 1: minus won. Twenty going against our typical desire to. Fade
- 1:25:01Speaker 1: teams are turning off from a. Road, TROY i think
- 1:25:03Speaker 1: this is a rare situation WHERE.
- 1:25:05Speaker 2: I actually like bucking that. Trend so we're gonna do.
- 1:25:09Speaker 1: It thanks guys for hanging. Out Stacks. Jeffrey learn it
- 1:25:13Speaker 1: tone On twitter From, me learned it tone On. Instagram
- 1:25:16Speaker 1: better Off, Dead, like subscribe to the channel, here let's
- 1:25:18Speaker 1: get this thing. Monetized you can listen on an audio
- 1:25:22Speaker 1: that helps me out as. Well, Spotify apple you can
- 1:25:25Speaker 1: give me a good review over there as. Well that
- 1:25:27Speaker 1: would be helpful as. WELL i appreciate all that covered in.
- 1:25:31Speaker 1: You because my ukulele channel on, YouTube i'm THINKING i
- 1:25:34Speaker 1: do have to start doing like yuke just streams WHERE
- 1:25:38Speaker 1: i kind of hang, OUT i talk to people, about you,
- 1:25:39Speaker 1: know current events without getting my channel nuked of, course
- 1:25:43Speaker 1: and you, know and just dick around with the, yuke you,
- 1:25:45Speaker 1: know and maybe take request basically like what as but
- 1:25:49Speaker 1: does with this keyboard and What i've done When i've
- 1:25:51Speaker 1: been on his. Show So i'm THINKING i might do.
- 1:25:52Speaker 1: That chuse the day of the week And i'll probably be,
- 1:25:55Speaker 1: like Maybe i'll do it Like tuesday. NIGHTS i don't,
- 1:25:57Speaker 1: KNOW i don't know if people think that makes, sense
- 1:26:00Speaker 1: if they're into, it Maybe i'll do that Because tuesday
- 1:26:02Speaker 1: tends to be like a day where there's not a
- 1:26:05Speaker 1: lot of sports going, on so The wednesday you kind
- 1:26:07Speaker 1: of have to. Handicapped but baseball season is about to,
- 1:26:09Speaker 1: end so there's not gonna be a whole lot to
- 1:26:11Speaker 1: Do tuesday Into. Wednesday so, yeah, anyway, yeah that's gonna do,
- 1:26:17Speaker 1: IT i. Think and Then patreon dot com sas learn To,
- 1:26:19Speaker 1: toe we do have The spotify yuke, feed which I've
- 1:26:22Speaker 1: i'm trying to keep up, today AND i sell them
- 1:26:23Speaker 1: like four or five you covers behind on that and then,
- 1:26:27Speaker 1: YEAH i MEAN i think that's that's about. It don't
- 1:26:30Speaker 1: nuke the, yuke that's. Right, YEAH i like. It uh uh,
- 1:26:35Speaker 1: yeah covered in, yuka you know it's MY i mean
- 1:26:37Speaker 1: that's BECAUSE i used to WHEN i used to. DRINK
- 1:26:39Speaker 1: i used to do drunk ukulele, cover so the old
- 1:26:43Speaker 1: fat toed back. THERE i had hair AND i was
- 1:26:46Speaker 1: fat or back. Then you cause my old covers of
- 1:26:49Speaker 1: the air from like a decade, ago you can maybe
- 1:26:51Speaker 1: see HOW i. ADAPTED i had old ukuleles back. Then
- 1:26:54Speaker 1: maybe HOPEFULLY i have improved since, then even THOUGH i
- 1:26:56Speaker 1: kind of just learned ukuleleia on my. OWN i was
- 1:26:59Speaker 1: like thirty one on or. Whatever JUST i don't play it.
- 1:27:02Speaker 1: CORRECTLY i just stick around with. It but you can
- 1:27:04Speaker 1: find those old yuke covers on that channel as. Well but,
- 1:27:08Speaker 1: YEAH i called it covered in yuke BECAUSE i was
- 1:27:10Speaker 1: drunk and it sounds like covered in. Puke if people
- 1:27:13Speaker 1: don't get the, JOKE i don't know how obvious it,
- 1:27:14Speaker 1: is but, yeah there might be like a nuke pun
- 1:27:18Speaker 1: to make there. Too, yeah, besides don't nuke the. Yuke but,
- 1:27:21Speaker 1: UH i don't. KNOW i gotta think about. It Duke yu,
- 1:27:26Speaker 1: come you can call me. THAT i guess for. Now
- 1:27:28Speaker 1: that's gonna do, it. Though everybody have a Good. Thursday
- 1:27:31Speaker 1: peace out for, now And i'll be back. Well tomorrow.
- 1:27:34Speaker 1: Morning we'll talk about The friday card and Then friday.
- 1:27:36Speaker 1: Night tomorrow night is gonna be The College Football show.
- 1:27:39Speaker 2: WHERE i talk About.
- 1:27:40Speaker 1: Saturday there ARE i think a couple of college football
- 1:27:42Speaker 1: games tomorrow, night which We'll i'll talk about on the
- 1:27:45Speaker 1: morning show. TOMORROW i don't think it's anything that. Entry
- 1:27:48Speaker 1: it might be just. ONE i think It's tulsa In Oklahoma. State, Look,
- 1:27:52Speaker 1: god nobody's even. PEOPLE i Forgot Oklahoma state was even a.
- 1:27:55Speaker 1: Team that's how far they've. Fallen, man that. PROGRAM i
- 1:27:59Speaker 1: don't know what what's going on with that. Program they
- 1:28:01Speaker 1: used to be very very strong in the Old big,
- 1:28:04Speaker 1: twelve and now they're still in The big twelve and
- 1:28:06Speaker 1: they're just absolutely. Forgettable it's. Crazy but we'll talk about that.
- 1:28:09Speaker 1: Tomorrow that's gonna do it for. Now Happy, thursday everybody
- 1:28:13Speaker 1: in peace for, now