Latest / Trend Watch / Episode 36: Harris Taps Walz, Trump Pledges Social Security Reform, & UK Riots

Transcript

Episode 36: Harris Taps Walz, Trump Pledges Social Security Reform, & UK Riots · Trend Watch

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: Ready to take a deeper look at where history, politics, and economics all intersect?
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Well, then you've come to the right place.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Each week,
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: here's where we pull back the headlines and focus on the big trends,
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: the stuff that actually shapes our future.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Through the noise, we focus on the signal.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: I'm your host, Neil Howe, and this is TrendWatch.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Today is August 7th, 2024, and this is Trend Watch.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back, everybody.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: As usual, I have on my fellow analyst, Christian Ford.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: So, Christian, how was your week?
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_01: It's been pretty good, Neil, but I have to say I don't have much to report, you know.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: It's just been a quiet, humid, hazy summer here in D.C.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: I think someone needs a vacation.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: One's coming up.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: I always dread the sound of millennials just too busy at work.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: You know, that's almost more frightening than the opposite.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's get right into it.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: We don't have any farewells today, so we're going to plunge right in.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: I do want to remind all the listeners,
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: if you like the podcast,
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_00: please share it with your friends,
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: family,
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: repost it on social media.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: And Christian,
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: I think we should take a moment right up here at front to clarify to listeners that
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: this podcast isn't all we do on Substack.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: We also do a lot of other things on Demography Unplugged.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: We do demography and we do economics.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: We do generational stuff.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: That's right, Neil.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_01: You know, I always tell our listeners to check out our written pieces.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: And this week we did a new By the Numbers where we look at a bunch of
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_01: recent demographic data and news.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: And we looked at how overdose deaths in the United States are declining,
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_01: some new fertility numbers,
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: and pretty interesting stuff.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_01: So I would suggest everyone goes and checks it out.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: And we got it right on Germany.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, we predicted the decline in their fertility.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: Declining TFR in Germany, we kind of had that on.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: So
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's get right into today's podcast.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: We have a lot to talk about, as always, and I'm just reviewing down our big stories.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: I suppose one of the biggest, Kamala Harris has chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: I guess you'd say an early wave Xer, born in 1964, to be her vice presidential candidate.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Donald Trump,
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: in a surprise move for a Republican candidate,
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: has proposed making Social Security benefits tax-free.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_00: Missouri Congresswoman Cori Bush, a member of the Progressive Squad, I guess that's a bigger...
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_00: a new and improved and larger member of the squad,
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: was defeated in a Democratic primary by a more mainstream candidate.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to cover that.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: And finally, domestically here, a federal judge in the D.C.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: District Court has ruled that Google's success in making itself the sole search
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: engine on most online platforms constitutes a monopolistic practice.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: internationally violent anti-immigrant protests have spread across Britain and I
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: guess they they're they're they're they're still out there right I guess that
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: hasn't been held yet so we're gonna get Christian to introduce that a little bit
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: the first f-16s arrive in Ukraine amid growing concern over the cumulative gains of
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: Russia's summer offensive
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_00: Hamas has chosen Yahya Sinwar as its political leader after the death of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: And finally,
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: in Bangladesh,
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: this is something we've been covering,
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_00: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has fled the country after widespread protests.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: So what's going to happen to Bangladesh?
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: So all of those things coming up.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: And I guess we start with you, Christian, as always, with the market news.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: All right, Neil, the S&P closed down today 0.77% and over the last five market days is down 5.85%.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: As for the global Dow, you know, that actually did a little bit better than the S&P.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_01: It closed up today 0.52% and over the last five market days is down 5.15%.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: As for the VIX,
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: that closed today at 28.2%,
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: which is,
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: significantly higher than the beginning of the week,
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: but a little bit down from its peak,
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: about two days ago.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: As for the 10-year treasury,
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_01: that is at 3.955%,
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: which is down eight basis points over the last five days.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's been really an incredible week in the markets.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: The S&P is down 8.2% from its peak on July 16th, right?
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: So we are, what, 1.8% above a correction, an official correction?
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: Should we go in that direction?
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: Lots of articles now about how, gee, maybe the Fed blew it, you know, if...
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: At least it would have had better cover if they had cut earlier in their last meeting.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: People are talking about an emergency meeting by the Fed.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: But I think if, well, obviously, if markets go down another 10 points, yeah, you're going to see that.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think the Fed put on the markets is definitely what it's all about.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: People may talk about, well, the Fed certainly talks about inflation and employment issues.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: But I can assure you they are looking at markets and nothing would would make a
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: emergency meeting of the Fed in a,
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: 100 basis point cut in the Fed funds rate more certain than a huge decline in the market.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: Wouldn't you say, Christian?
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Isn't that a fair bet?
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: So they they they know they know why they're there.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: So there's that.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: Again, for those of you who may be here for the first time, we talked about this last time.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: We are going to be doing an About the Indicators show later in this month.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: But it really is interesting how this all got started,
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: not just by the unwinding of the carry trade in Japan.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, Arun was borrowing in these very low interest markets.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: Low interest yen.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: And so Wall Street had to unwind that really fast.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's part of what triggered the beginning of this at the end of last week,
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: along with the unemployment.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: Well, the the employment and unemployment report that we heard last week.
• 7:04
  SPEAKER_00: And as well as the very bad manufacturing PMI numbers that we saw as well, right?
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: And we talked a little bit about that.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: Also, manufacturing new orders of durable goods down double digits year over year all of a sudden, right?
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: So we're going to talk a lot more about that.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: People are talking about...
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: a new hard landing.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: And whether or not a new hard landing is what we're going to face is definitely
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: going to be one of the topics on our all about the indicators,
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: looking at which long term,
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: medium term and short term indicators are blinking and which are not.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: And how that has changed over the last one to three months.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: So we will be doing that and stay tuned for that.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: What about any other kind of economic indicators?
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think anything showed up domestically, right?
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: But maybe something happened abroad.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: we had a few from our last podcast,
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: but I'm sure everyone's heard,
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: the non-farm payrolls for July fell from 179,000 to 114,000.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_01: The unemployment rate for July rose from 4.1% to 4.3%.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: As for global, we did have some July PMIs from China, the Caixin.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: Manufacturing fell to 49.8%.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: That's its first fall, Neil, since October 2023.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_01: and as for services that rose to 52.1 that actually marks 19 months of growth in
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: china right right yes i i i forgot that we hadn't actually covered the nfp right so
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: yeah a lot of numbers out in that um
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: When did that come out on on Thursday?
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think it was Thursday.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: OK.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: OK.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's obviously a big part of what we're now looking at employment.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_00: So that's domestic.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: That is international.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: I guess you just want to launch into your main story.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_01: Kamala Harris has chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her VP pick.
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_01: Walz is a former teacher, high school football coach, National Guardman, and six-term congressman.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: He rose to prominence after he responded to J.D.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_01: Vance's, quote, childless cat ladies.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: comment by calling Vance and Trump weird.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_01: The Harris campaign hopes that Walt's Midwest background will connect with rural
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: working class voters and that his progressive policies will also,
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: placate the left side of the party.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_01: Many analysts had expected Harris to choose Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, but in the end, he lost out.