Latest / Best of Business / Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management expert on the market reactions to the Iran conflict

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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management expert on the market reactions to the Iran conflict · Best of Business

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News talks'd be follow
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  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio
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  Speaker 1: not feather Dupe to see how James Solly Harbor asset
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  Speaker 1: Management is with US high Shane, Mate, how have the
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  Speaker 1: markets reacted to this?
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  Speaker 2: It's dinner roller case. So we're early on. We saw
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  Speaker 2: a risk off move, so people were unwilling to take
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  Speaker 2: it on risk in reaction to what's spaping over the weekend.
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  Speaker 2: Then around two o'clock Newson time, we had a rumor
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  Speaker 2: that around security for Lauren Journey is reported to announced
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  Speaker 2: that AURN was seeking nuclear talks with viewers. President Trump said,
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  Speaker 2: that's nice. We're open to being pragmatic with any in sanctions.
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  Speaker 2: And then about five o'clocks on time, Lauren Janey said, no,
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  Speaker 2: that's wrong, the wrong. Our own is not heading there. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: we've got a rollercase to oil price. That probably the
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  Speaker 2: key one. The Brent crude price up for which is
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  Speaker 2: about six percent up to seventy seven dollars fifty a
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  Speaker 2: barrel that can be usible. It's twelve month average has
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  Speaker 2: been around sixty six sixty seven. Five year average twenty bucks,
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  Speaker 2: so you know we have seen a bit of a
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  Speaker 2: price increase. The opiq plus of come out and said
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  Speaker 2: they're going to pump to helpful a gat goal price
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  Speaker 2: up one point three percent, sixty eight bucks to five
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  Speaker 2: three four sevens and forty seven ounce with people of
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  Speaker 2: them for safety. Interesting one whither is the US shear market.
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  Speaker 2: It's obviously open open tonight, so it's not open yet,
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  Speaker 2: but the futures are picking the market will be down
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  Speaker 2: around zero point nine er percent, just under one percent.
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  Speaker 2: Market was pretty weak last week on the basis people
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  Speaker 2: worry about a risk credit rests and then potential Iranian
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  Speaker 2: military conflicts. So maybe some of the people you were
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  Speaker 2: just talking about earlier on and certainly locally, we've seen
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  Speaker 2: our interest rates rather the stable and designed dollar a
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  Speaker 2: little bit down to fifty nine to seventy four against
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  Speaker 2: the US. He's a marker down half a percent, but
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  Speaker 2: a weakness and earboss main frack contact. So yet, roll
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  Speaker 2: of Caster, do.
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  Speaker 1: You think the capital markets will remain volatile?
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  Speaker 2: Look, the debate for capital markets very much sends on
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  Speaker 2: where there. It's a short, swift campaign about bringing Iran
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  Speaker 2: to negotiating table and landing on a long term nuclear deal.
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  Speaker 2: Or a more sustained campaign to bring about regime change.
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  Speaker 2: We can only really look back at what we've seen
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  Speaker 2: in previous similar events, the Gulf War, Arak War, Russians
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  Speaker 2: of a Ukraine, the Reason Israel around twelve their war,
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  Speaker 2: and across all four episodes, we saw the worst case
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  Speaker 2: scenarios priced them pretty quickly. My markets, particularly in oil
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  Speaker 2: and then that's generally been unwound. Is that geopolitical risk
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  Speaker 2: premium once we understand the scope and duration of the conflict.
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  Speaker 2: We know this is different when they're all different, but
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  Speaker 2: human behavior is not different, and markets tend to reflect
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  Speaker 2: the same, So you tend to see the worst reactionly
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  Speaker 2: on and over time. You know, week or two we
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  Speaker 2: might see some of the spike and headlines on wine.
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  Speaker 1: Now on the reporting season, we saw that wind up
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  Speaker 1: on Friday. What are your key takeaways from this?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, the New Zealand company reporting season was actually
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  Speaker 2: pretty good. We had more results beats versus consensus expectations,
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  Speaker 2: the misses that we've seen more upgrades than downgrades. It
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  Speaker 2: saw some great results from companies like Fishing and Pipeal
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  Speaker 2: Healthcare A two. The Oussy Bank sayings in whispect that
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  Speaker 2: are duel listed they will performed pretty well. We sat
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  Speaker 2: a little bit of weakness and Fletcher's you boss vulcan
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  Speaker 2: spark chorus, but you know we have we are seeing
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  Speaker 2: a better trend and these trends are being driven by
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  Speaker 2: cost control. You know, it's not quite company specific strategies
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  Speaker 2: to try and and proved profitably rather than a strong
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  Speaker 2: economic tale when your companies were quite saying that mixed
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  Speaker 2: in New zeal economy, it's not consistent and quite a
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  Speaker 2: few companies talking about continue with costs out programs. So
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  Speaker 2: buildings results are good. Economy, it's still a bit next.
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  Speaker 1: Good stuff, San, thanks for running us through. Appreciate it,
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  Speaker 1: Mat Shane Sally Harbor Resset Management. For more from news
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