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SpaceX's Mars Mission: Trump's Triumph or Musk's Gambit? · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:01
  Hey, everybody. Welcome back to the Elon Musk
• 0:04
  Podcast. This is a show where we discuss
• 0:07
  the critical crossroads that shape SpaceX, Tesla X, The
• 0:11
  Boring Company and Neurolink. I'm your host, Will Walden.
• 0:16
  So it looks like Elon Musk might finally get the green light to
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  really speed up development of the Starship rocket.
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  Can you imagine what it would be like to see humans actually set
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  foot on the Red Planet during your own lifetime?
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  Now the election of Donald Trump is the 45th President of the
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  United States is expected to have far reaching consequences
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  for the American space program, particularly the plans of SpaceX
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  and Elon Musk to send humans to Mars.
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  And according to four individuals familiar with the
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  emerging space policy agenda of the incoming administration,
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  NASA's Artemis program, which aims to use Spacex's Starship
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  rocket to return astronauts to the moon as a stepping stone for
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  future Mars missions, is likely to shift its focus more directly
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  toward the Red Planet. Under Trump's leadership, this
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  could involve targeting uncrewed missions to Mars within the
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  current decade, a goal that is not only more challenging than
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  concentrating efforts on the moon, but also carries greater
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  risks and potentially higher costs.
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  The Musk, who has been an outspoken supporter of Trump and
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  even danced on stage wearing an Occupy Mars T-shirt at a
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  campaign rally in October, has successfully elevated the
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  importance of space policy during this unusual period of
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  presidential transition. Now, the billionaire
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  entrepreneur also heads electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla and
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  brain chip startup Neurolink contributed $119,000,000 to
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  Trump's White House bid. In September, just weeks after
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  Musk publicly endorsed Trump, the former president told
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  reporters that the moon served as a launching pad for his
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  ultimate objective of reaching Mars.
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  Now, Doug Navarro, which is a space industry consultant who
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  previously LED NASA's Human Exploration Unit during Trump's
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  first term, stated at a minimum, we're going to get a more
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  realistic Mars plan. You'll see Mars being set as an
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  objective. This sentiment suggests that the
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  Trump administration is likely to prioritize a more direct
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  approach to Mars exploration, potentially accelerating the
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  timeline for sending humans to the Red Planet.
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  However, it is important to note the plans could still evolve as
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  the Trump transition team takes shape in the coming weeks.
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  The sources cautioned that the specifics of the space policy
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  may be subject to change as new advisors and officials are
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  appointed to key positions within the administration.
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  One of the primary factors that could facilitate Spacex's
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  ambitions under a Trump presidency is the expected
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  reduction in regulatory hurdles. Musk, who has made cutting
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  government regulation and streamlining bureaucracy a core
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  tenet of his support for Trump, is likely to push for changes at
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  the Federal Aviation Administration's Commercial
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  Space Office. The FAA's oversight of private
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  rocket launches has been a source of frustration for Musk
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  as it has slowed down the development of Spacex's Starship
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  rocket in Boca Chica star base. Texas Now.
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  The FAA did not immediately responded to a request from us
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  for comment on this matter. Though now under the Trump
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  administration, NASA is also expected to favor fixed price
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  space contracts, the greater responsibility on private
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  companies, while scaling back over budget programs that have
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  stained the Artemis budget. Now, the shift in contracting
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  approach could have significant implications for the SLS rocket,
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  the Space Launch System rocket. Now, it's currently the only
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  rocket owned by NASA, and the development of the SLS, led by
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  Boeing and Northrop Grumman since 2011, has cost roughly $24
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  billion to date. While canceling the SLS program
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  would be challenging due to the potential loss of thousands of
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  jobs and the increased reliance on SpaceX, the Trump
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  administration may seek to restructure or streamline the
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  program to better align with its space policy priorities.
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  Boeing and Northrop did not immediately respond to any of
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  our requests for comment on this matter as well.
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  Everyone's keeping their lips sealed now.
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  Musk's timeline to reach Mars, which he outlined in September,
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  includes landing a Starship on the Red Planet by 2026 and
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  launching a crude mission just four years later.
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  Although Trump has mentioned discussing these ideas with Musk
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  at campaign rallies, many industry experts view this time
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  land as overly optimistic and improbable.
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  Now, Scott Pace, who served as the top space policy official
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  during Trump's first term, commented on the feasibility of
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  Musk's plans, stating is it possible for Eli to put a
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  Starship on the surface of Mars and a one way mission by the end
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  of Trump's term? Absolutely.
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  He certainly could do that. Is that a manned mission on
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  Mars? No.
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  You have to walk before you run. Now, despite the challenges and
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  uncertainty surrounding SpaceX is Mars plans, the company
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  remains a major contractor for the US government.
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  SpaceX has been awarded billions of dollars in contracts to
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  launch satellites and provide other services, such as
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  constructing a network of spy satellites.
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  Now, NASA has also specifically allocated around $4 billion for
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  the development of Starship, which the space agency intends
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  to use as a lunar Lander. The HLS, you know, Starship
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  rocket is central to Musk's vision of transforming humanity
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  into a multi planetary species. And by drastically reducing the
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  cost of launching people and equipment into space, Musk hopes
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  that the massive rocket will enable the establishment of a
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  self-sustaining colony on Mars. However, the development of
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  Starship has come at a significant financial cost for
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  SpaceX, with estimates suggesting that the project is
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  currently absorbing more cash than it generates.
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  Tim Farrar, the president of TMF Associates, which is a firm that
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  analyzes the satellite industry, noted that despite the
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  substantial investment, the promise of Starship is something
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  that is pretty important for SpaceX in terms of convincing
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  investors to keep pouring money in at ever increasing
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  valuations. And while the potential benefits
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  of Starship are compelling, its development has not been without
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  environmental concerns. The Boca Chica launch site,
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  located in Texas, is situated in the midst of state federally
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  protected wetlands. Biologists have documented
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  evidence that the noise and heat generated by launches have a
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  detrimental impact on the eggs of nesting birds.
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  Furthermore, documents from the Environmental Protection Agency
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  or the EPA, and an application submitted to Texas regulators
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  indicate that each launch discharges 10s of thousands of
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  gallons of water contaminated with chemicals from the launch
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  into the surrounding environment.
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  Now, of course, SpaceX has denied the charges about the
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  discharge water that it poses any serious harm and maintains
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  that it is irresponsible environmental steward.
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  In a statement released in September, the company asserted
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  the narrative that we operate free of or in defiance of
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  environmental regulation is demonstrably false.
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  SpaceX is committed to minimizing impact and enhancing
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  the surrounding environment where possible.
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  However, environmental groups have expressed their
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  disagreement with Spacex's assessment.
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  The Center for Biological Diversity and local
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  environmental organizations are currently suing the FAA for
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  failing to conduct a comprehensive environmental
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  impact statement before permitting SpaceX to launch
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  Starship even once from the Boca Chica site.
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  Now, Jared Margolis, who's a senior lawyer leading the
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  lawsuit, suggests that if regulators take a more lenient
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  approach under a new Trump administration, the courts may
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  assume a more prominent role in enforcing environmental
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  regulations, they said. We're not afraid of confronting
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  the Trump administration. We're not afraid of making sure
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  that environmental laws are being complied with.
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  That's what we do now. The potential for increased
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  environmental oversight through the courts underscores the
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  complex web of factors that could influence the trajectory
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  of Spacex's Mars plans under Trump.
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  Now, while the expected regulation reductions and
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  hurdles are A and a more direct focus on Mars with NASA's
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  Artemis program could provide a boost to Musk's plans, the
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  environmental concerns surrounding the Boca Chica
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  launch site in the ongoing legal challenges could pose
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  significant obstacles in the future.
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  Moreover, the feasibility of Musk's timeline for reaching
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  Mars remains a point of contention among industry
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  experts. The technical challenge
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  associated with safety landing and spacecraft landing on the
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  Red Planet with people on board and establishing a sustainable
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  human presence are immense, and many view Musk's projections as
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  overly optimistic now. The prospect of a renewed focus
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  on Mars exploration under the Trump administration has
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  generated excitement and anticipation, however, is
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  critical to approach these ambitious plans with a measure
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  of caution and realism. The exploration of Mars is an
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  enormously complex and very expensive endeavor that will
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  require sustained political support, robust funding, and
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  close collaboration among various stakeholders, including
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  government agencies like the FAA, NASA, etcetera.
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  Also there we're going to be working with private industries
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  and international partners to get there.
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  And as the Trump administration takes shape in the coming weeks
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  and months, the specifics of its space agenda will become
• 9:52
  clearer. The appointment of key officials
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  and advisors, as well as the allocation of funds and
• 9:57
  resources and the establishment of priorities, will provide a
• 10:00
  more definitive picture of how the administration intends to
• 10:04
  support and shape the future of American space exploration,
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  including the plans of Elon Musk and SpaceX to send humans on
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  Mars. Now, regardless of politics, the
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  dream of human exploration of Mars continues to capture all of
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  our imaginations. The prospect of establishing a
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  permanent human presence on another world is a monumental
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  milestone in the history of our species and holds the promise of
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  expanding our understanding of the universe in our place within
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  it. Hey, thank you so much for
• 10:47
  listening today. I really do appreciate your
• 10:49
  support. If you could take a second and
• 10:50
  hit the subscribe or the follow button on whatever podcast
• 10:53
  platform that you're listening on right now, I greatly
• 10:56
  appreciate it. It helps out the show
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  tremendously and you'll never miss an episode.
• 11:01
  And each episode is about 10 minutes or less to get you
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  caught up quickly. And please, if you want to
• 11:07
  support the show even more, go to patreon.com/stagezero and
• 11:13
  please take care of yourselves and each other and I'll see you
• 11:16
  tomorrow.