Latest / Bull Market Conversations with Fexingo: Rallies, Momentum, and Riding Market Strength / How SpaceX Is Rewriting the IPO Playbook in 2026
Transcript
- Lucas: So there was a headline this week that really got me thinking: 'SpaceX may emerge as ultimate blueprint for new wave of mega-cap IPOs.' And I think that's actually understating what's happening. Luna: Understating? SpaceX is still private. It's worth something like two hundred billion dollars, maybe more, and it's not even listed. How is that an IPO blueprint? Lucas: Exactly. That's the point. The blueprint isn't about going public the traditional way. It's about realizing you don't have to. Or, if you do, you get to write your own rules. SpaceX has raised something like twelve billion dollars in private rounds, and its employees have been cashing out via secondary sales for years. The company has effectively created a private market for its own stock, with almost none of the disclosure requirements of a public listing. Luna: Right, but that works when you're SpaceX. You have a visionary founder, a clear mission, and investors who are willing to wait decades. Most companies can't do that. Lucas: No question. But the interesting thing is that the bull market we're in right now is actually reinforcing that model. Look at the S&P 500 at 7,483, the Nasdaq at 25,833. We're at record levels. The cost of capital for high-quality private companies is incredibly low. Why would you subject yourself to quarterly earnings calls and activist investors if you don't have to? Luna: But isn't there a trade-off? Public markets give you a currency for acquisitions, liquidity for employees, and a broader investor base. SpaceX is using secondary markets to address the liquidity piece, but what about M&A? Lucas: SpaceX has been acquiring companies too, like that small satellite communications firm last year. They just use cash or private stock. And honestly, the companies they're buying probably prefer SpaceX equity to a public company's stock. There's a premium on being associated with Musk's vision. Luna: That's true. But let's talk about the companies that have gone public recently. Palantir, for instance. It went public via direct listing in 2020, and it's been a wild ride. Up fourteen and a half percent just this week to a hundred and twenty-nine dollars. Lucas: Right, Palantir is a great counterexample. They chose a direct listing to avoid the lock-up period and the underwriting fees. But once they were public, they faced immense pressure from short sellers, activist investors, and the constant scrutiny of earnings. Their stock has been incredibly volatile. Luna: And yet, they've raised capital through public offerings when they needed it. They also use stock-based compensation to attract talent. Would they have been better off staying private like SpaceX? Lucas: I think it depends on what you value. SpaceX is likely worth more now than it would be if it were public, because private markets can tolerate longer-term bets. Public markets are punishing companies that aren't profitable, even in a bull market. Look at CrowdStrike, up nearly eleven percent this week to a hundred and ninety-four dollars, but it's profitable. Datadog, up eight and a half percent, also profitable. The market rewards earnings. Luna: So the SpaceX model works for companies that don't need public market capital and can afford to stay private. But for most companies, especially those that need to grow quickly, the IPO is still the best route. Lucas: I think the bigger shift is that companies now have a choice. Twenty years ago, if you wanted to raise serious money, you had to go public. Now, with private equity, sovereign wealth funds, and secondary markets, you can raise billions without ever filing an S-1. Luna: That's true. And the bull market is flooding private companies with capital. The Fed funds rate is at three point six three percent, still relatively low, so money is cheap. Lucas: Exactly. And that's why you see companies like Stripe and SpaceX staying private for so long. They can raise at higher and higher valuations without the hassle of being public. But eventually, even they will have to face the music. Employees want liquidity, early investors want exits, and the SEC is starting to scrutinize the secondary market more closely. Luna: So the question is: will SpaceX ever go public? And if it does, will it be a traditional IPO or something else? Lucas: I think when SpaceX does go public, it will be on its own terms. Maybe a direct listing, maybe a SPAC, though that's less likely now. But it will be one of the biggest events in market history. The valuation could be three hundred billion or more. Luna: That would dwarf any IPO we've seen. And it would set a precedent for other mega-cap private companies. Lucas: Honestly, if you found this conversation valuable and it's worth a coffee to you, that's the link: buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. Just a small way to keep the show ad-free and independent. Luna: Yeah, it really helps us keep doing deep dives like this. We appreciate it. Lucas: So back to the blueprint. I think what SpaceX is really showing is that the IPO is no longer the only path to scale. And in a bull market, that flexibility is incredibly valuable. Luna: But it also creates a two-tier system. The companies that can access private capital have an advantage, while smaller companies still need the public markets. That could lead to a concentration of wealth and power. Lucas: That's a real concern. The bull market is already widening the gap between haves and have-nots. The top ten stocks in the S&P 500 account for a huge percentage of the index's gains. Private markets could amplify that. Luna: So what's the takeaway for our listeners? If you're an investor, should you be worried that the best companies are staying private? Lucas: I think you have to find other ways to get exposure. Some of those private companies have secondary markets where you can buy shares, but it's risky and illiquid. Alternatively, you can invest in the funds that back these companies, like venture capital or growth equity funds. Luna: But those are often only available to accredited investors. The public market is still the most democratic way to invest. Lucas: True. And that's why the IPO is not going away. But the SpaceX blueprint is forcing us to rethink what it means to be a public company. Maybe we need to update our rules to make being public more attractive again. Luna: Like what? Lower reporting requirements? More flexibility on quarterly guidance? Lucas: Exactly. The JOBS Act already did some of that for emerging growth companies. But maybe we need to go further. Because if the best companies stay private, the public market becomes a market for lemons. Luna: That's a strong way to put it. But you see it already: the companies that go public are often the ones that couldn't raise enough private capital. That's not a great signal. Lucas: Right. And in this bull market, the public market is actually rewarding quality. Look at the growth stocks that are doing well: Datadog, CrowdStrike, Palantir. They're all delivering results. So maybe the market is self-correcting. Luna: Let's bring it back to SpaceX. Do you think they'll ever go public? And if so, when? Lucas: I think they will eventually, but not until they have a more predictable revenue stream. Starlink is helping, but it's still early. Maybe after they have a successful Mars mission, which is probably a decade away. By then, the public market might look very different. Luna: And by then, the IPO playbook might be completely rewritten. Lucas: That's the bet SpaceX is making. And so far, it's paying off.