Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Banks Just told Big Clients: Sell Everything, Buy THIS Instead + Stock Market News 25 June 2024

Transcript

Banks Just told Big Clients: Sell Everything, Buy THIS Instead + Stock Market News 25 June 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: that might help.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Okay, I appreciate that the battery had died, hence this wire.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: So thanks very much for letting me know.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Guys, lip reading not one of your skill sets yet.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: So, okay, let's start at the top here.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Nvidia is rebounding, which, of course, is glorious news, and, having said that, every trading desk on Wall Street yesterday flashed sell signals across the board as institutions were unloading, and I'll show you exactly what that looks like, because we can see the institutional trades and there is one opportunity of all opportunities.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I think I've actually just made a video with that.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: That's part of it.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I'm going to walk you through it, because I think that opportunity is one of the best things I've seen since, like, I don't know sliced bread, so stick around.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I'll walk you through that, as well as all the most important things for you to make money this week.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: And if you want to really make some money this week, then come and join me in literally 11 hours where I will try to teach a couple of hundred people how I trade my three-step rules-based system.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Beginners can do it, they don't need to know anything about anything, and we made $7,300 so far on a $30,000 teaching portfolio that I run, and you don't need to do much.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: That's the beautiful thing.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: It's for the lazy.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: So I'm thinking of renaming the channel the Lazy Trader, which Winston would kind of appreciate.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: He's pretty lazy too when he's not hiking.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: But what really surprised me yesterday, of course, but you know, I get the trend alerts from Trade Vision.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Last chance today, by the way, to get yourself the two trade alerts per day for free upgrade If you just got to sign up for the premium Trade Vision tier, and it's a month trial.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: It's a risk-free endeavor.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: But to see Nvidia on there, I was like okay.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: And ASML and Intel and a few other semiconductor guys, I was like okay, okay, was this the end of the run-up?
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: And we did warn a little bit about that, didn't we?
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: But there's also some interesting stuff that does go up when the market hits.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: A snack like Ferrari, for example, berkshire, you know, flight to safety swoop looking quite nice there as well.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: So it's good to get these.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: We scan through 2000 something companies every day, so you don't have to.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: So what are we looking at here?
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: We're looking at NVIDIA once again being no longer the largest company in the world.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Here we're looking at Nvidia once again being no longer the largest company in the world lost the three trillion value.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Where do you live?
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Healthy Tech Guy asks that's a nice title.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Healthy Tech Guy, I'm in Hong Kong right now.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I'm sort of between here and southern France and London usually, but I'm probably in Hong Kong for the majority of the year.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: And this is what happened.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: This is where we are right now.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: So if I zoom in a little bit on this, if I'm allowed, there we go.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: So what have you got?
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: You've got the stock chart right.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: We're here right now.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: That's where we are right.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: That's where we are right now.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: That blue little dotted line there and what does the chart show me?
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: On the side here, you see that little red bar there that I'm highlighting.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: That was support and I told you that yesterday.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: This is inside Trade Vision, so you can get yourself a month free access to that.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: So that was the support.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: And guess what that looks like?
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: It's holding and you can break below support level.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: They still hold, they can still bounce up.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: And then where does the resistance kick in?
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: The resistance kicks in at 130.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: So 130 supports at 120, and then 135 and then 140.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Those are your resistance points on the way up.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Which are these green lines here?
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: That's basically the way it works.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So nice to see the rebound this morning, of course, about halfway through yesterday's sell-off.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: So that's definitely a positive.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: And there is something, though, that's a little bit eerie, and that's if the S&P 500 was like 500 companies equally weighted, so they would all have 0.2% part of the S&P, we would be down here and we would be at the same level that we were last at in.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Microsoft's done some weird upgrade to this thing, which totally sucks Microsoft, the king of selling average products.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: We're basically here at 2008, 2009 levels, which isn't really a great period in the stock market, if you remember.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: So it's a little bit of a concern there, but there is a reason for it, I think, before we get to the next story, and that's this Big high interest rates mean that small companies can't invest, can't invest, can't compete, whereas the big guys have got for cash flow lots of money, so they're actually making money out of those cash piles that they have, whereas the small competition can't really get in because they're going to borrow at like eight 9%.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: So it's one of those environments where interest rates are relatively high and it's massively benefiting the big stocks, the big companies.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: So again, you might be thinking well, if you were a big company like Microsoft, would you lobby for higher interest rates?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: I would.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I certainly would.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Um, king, king, king.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: You made another mistake, buying at the wrong time again.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Really, somebody should put some handcuffs on your trading.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: This, to me, is the opportunity of a lifetime, and I should probably make a video on that, saying it's the opportunity of a lifetime, shouldn't I?
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: I think that'd be a good idea.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Should we do that in Winston?
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I think he's left the room.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Terz appetite Now.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Terzapatide is, of course, something you're completely familiar with, and I'm sure you had a nice discussion this morning with your family over terzapatide over breakfast.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Maybe you had some terzapatide for breakfast.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: No, what is it?
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: It's basically a fat loss drug, right?
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: So this is LLY coming out with a fantastic result under their phase three trial, which is the last step before you get FDA approval, and it means there is an illness which I didn't know was a thing, sleep apnea or something like that.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Basically, people, largely people who are large, overweight, horizontally expansive when they sleep, some of them have this problem where their breathing stops, which must be horrible and terrifying.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: So they wear like these kind of mask devices to make sure that there is pressure in their lungs and so on, and they stay alive.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Now this thing here sleep apnea apparently gets massively reduced by 60 odd percent by taking LLY's fat loss drug, probably because you lose weight and therefore you no longer have the condition that actually leads to the other health condition.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: But it's brilliant and I love and loathe what the fat loss people are doing, because King Godada's asleep apnea I assume he's on the large side of life probably, right, tesla as well Okay, great.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: So what are they doing?
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: They're basically medicalizing obesity, right?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: So they're saying it's not your fault, it's not about eating too much or having some sort of mental trauma thing that makes you eat a lot because you're stressed or sad or traumatized or something.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: No, it's a medical condition and all of these conditions have nothing to do with being overweight.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: They're just individually treatable and therefore they're getting FDA approval for all of these.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So it just means that everybody who's overweight is going to get prescribed with these drugs from LLY and from Novo Nordisk.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: So it's exceptionally smart and exceptionally devious and insanely profitable.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: So you can say, okay, I don't like pharma, I don't like pharma people.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I think pharma people are like the bottom feeders of this earth, but well, except when I need antibiotics, but in that case I love them, but most of the time they are.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: So what are the charts looking like?
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: This is LLY here today and it's had a pretty good run up.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: We had this really nice run up here.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: We had a consolidation.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: So this is like a up phase.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: This is basically a consolidation phase with another up phase.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: At some point you're going to get consolidation.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the market positioning right now it's sitting at $1,000, all those call options and I think that's probably institutions I would suggest this is going to go to $1,000.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: That's kind of where I see it.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: So I think it could be a nice trade.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: We're going to run up and we've been in this uptrend for some time here.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: So sometimes you might think, oh, we're a bit late to it, but you know all green there in the background.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a winner.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: But of course, this is just my view.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: You know no financial advice and so on.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Nvo chart looks very similar.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Actually, they had a little bit more of a well run up a little bit longer, a bit more of a contraction.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Now we got a nice little run up here and again flying through the roof.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Because it's not NVO's trial, but they all make the same stuff.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Basically, um can correct again okay, now you, you don't get sleep apnea.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: It's not really a disease on its own, it's a.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: It's a.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: It's a very unfortunate symptom.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Consequence of being usually severely obese takes a toll on your body, so your body kind of wants to give up.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: That's basically what it is.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: So if you lose the weight, all these things go away.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Right, all the heart problems, all that kind of stuff goes away.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Um, a lot of immunity issues as well.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: So they are basically fixing one thing, but they're being very, very smart by divvying the pie up and therefore telling doctors that they should prescribe it to absolutely everybody who walks through their door who is on the large side.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: So I think that's an opportunity.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: We might set up a little bit of a trade on that as well today.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Plus, I think that's an opportunity.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: We might set up a little bit of a trade on that as well today.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Plus, I think the other trade I'll probably do today will be I'll go long on the VIX again, the fear index.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Presidential debates coming up and so on.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Typically the VIX going into November or going into any presidential election.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Well, it goes up.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: We found the trade already, we took profits on it, so we're just going to do it again.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: And trade already, we took profits on it, so we're just going to do it again.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: And you're completely right.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Nvo also announced they're building another factory in the US.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I can't remember how big it is, but it's a big deal so big.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, the pharma lobby won.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: I was literally in a doctor's office last week in the Philippines and there was a calendar on the wall and it said obesity is an illness.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Let's treat it like one.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: And I smiled because it's not.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: It's not an illness.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: It's the result of putting in more calories than you burn.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: It's as simple as that.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: Now, the causes of that might be trauma, sadness, stress, you know some other thing, but it's not an illness.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: It's just you eat more than you burn.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: It's a simple calculation.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: But they have one and it is.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Now it's going to officially be an illness and people who are obese will be.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: You know, like in the UK, for example.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Right, how many people are on disability in the UK?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Some insane number, millions of people.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: A lot of them are just obese and then they just get certified with being disabled and therefore they get certain benefits.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: So it's a bit of a scam really the whole thing.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: But you know that's how pharma works.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: But look at this here's a chart that you haven't seen for a while.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: If but look at this, here's a chart that you haven't seen for a while.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: If you want to slap someone in the face with this this morning, what are we looking at here?
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: We're looking at the market capitalization concentration of the top 10 largest stocks.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: So how much of the market is the top 10 stocks?
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: And right now it's 75%.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: When was the last time this is now?
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: When was the last time we were at such levels?
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: 1929, I think that was the Great Depression.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: So, not to freak anybody out here or anything, as I say, I think there's a reason for it.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: It's A, it's this lobbying, it's corruption, it's high interest rates and it's just scale right.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Scale pays.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: You can't compete in AI, for example, unless you've got a couple of hundred billion dollars lying around, because you need data centers and you need to buy absurd numbers of GPUs and so on.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: So there are just industries that get more concentrated and concentrated, and concentrated, and I was using ChatGPT today.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Man, it's getting really, really good.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: And then, if you listen to some of the, there's an essay.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I was reading on it today.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I might do a video on that of just like where this is going.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: The thought is that within three years, ai might be so good that it can do what an AI software developer does today.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: So what an AI engineer is doing today, ai might be so good that it can do what an AI software developer does today.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: So what an AI engineer is doing today, ai might be able to do in just three years.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: So the speed and adoption is insane.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: It just means this knowledge is going to be in the biggest companies in the world.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: So are the biggest companies going to get bigger?
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: Is the world going to get more unfair?
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Is it going to become more uneven and the rich will get richer and the poor will be relatively poorer?
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: So that's just the reality.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, and it doesn't really matter who you vote for coming up, they'll tell you whatever they want you to hear.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Anyway, like you know, we are in a recession.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: By the way, guys, there is a recession here.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: The conference board indicator is at minus 14.6.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: It's never been at 14.6 without being in a recession.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: We had a recession here, as you can see by the red bars there.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: We had a recession here.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: We had a recession in the 70s.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: We're in a recession, but they're not going to tell you.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: So that's okay.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: All you got to do focus on yourself that's really it and help your fellow men and women, and four-legged friends especially they need it more than anybody and learn to make money from your money.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: It's a skill I learned too late in life.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: If there's one thing I could have learned liked to have learned earlier it'd be how to make money from my money.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: My parents didn't know, I still don't think they do, and therefore I had nobody ready to teach me.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: Economics, didn't teach me working for a corporate student didn't teach me working in a bank, didn't teach me the beginning of that.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how we do this little miraculous feat here making $7,308 on a $30,000 teaching portfolio and you want to know the rules the rules and automations and how we do this in like three hours a week, you can do this while and automations and how we do this in like three hours a week.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: You can do this while you're working.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: You can do this when you're busy, you have six children, nine golden retrievers chewing at your ankles.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: You can still do this.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: And I'm not promising you the results, obviously.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying like the system, the strategies.