Latest / Simply Bitcoin / The Debasement Trade! | Did JPMorgan Just Call for $500K Bitcoin? | Simply Originals

Transcript

The Debasement Trade! | Did JPMorgan Just Call for $500K Bitcoin? | Simply Originals · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  Are you not entertained? Bitcoin is ripping in those
• 0:04
  clowns over at JP Morgan. Maybe on to something Just in
• 0:08
  per CNBC, the strategy favoring gold and Bitcoin now has a name.
• 0:13
  JP Morgan analysts are calling it the debasement trade.
• 0:18
  Well, that's fancy. We just call it saving our
• 0:21
  money. But it doesn't stop there.
• 0:23
  Even Morgan Stanley is starting to figure out what happened in
• 0:26
  1971. They're referring to Bitcoin as
• 0:30
  digital gold. And CNBC is saying the
• 0:33
  government shutdown and Bitcoin going ballistic has cemented its
• 0:38
  safe haven status. What is the debasement trade?
• 0:41
  What is happening and where are we headed?
• 0:44
  Specifically, what would it take to send coined to 500K?
• 0:48
  Strap in, it's go time baby. Let's go.
• 0:56
  So what the hell is the debasement trade?
• 0:59
  We'll go ahead and tee up the narrator.
• 1:01
  The dollar was indeed crashing. Honestly, if you could sum up
• 1:06
  the debasement trade in one image, it's this.
• 1:09
  But if you're like me and your mom was pounding Tylenol like
• 1:12
  Skittles when you were in the womb, that just won't cut it.
• 1:15
  We need charts, we need context, we need chaos.
• 1:18
  So let's get to it. The S&P 500 is up 40% in just
• 1:23
  six months. Gold is knocking on $4000 an
• 1:26
  ounce, and Bitcoin, it just hit a record 125 KA $2.5 trillion
• 1:32
  market cap. Meanwhile, the US dollar is set
• 1:35
  for its worst year since 1973. So are markets really that
• 1:39
  strong or is the dollar just disintegrating?
• 1:43
  Gold. 40 record highs this year worth over 26 trillion.
• 1:47
  That's 10X the market cap of Bitcoin.
• 1:50
  Silver 2.7 trillion, up 60% year to date.
• 1:54
  And together gold, silver and Bitcoin are now top ten global
• 1:58
  assets. Normally these are safe havens,
• 2:00
  stuff that goes up when stocks fall.
• 2:03
  But guess what? The S&P 500 added 16 trillion in
• 2:07
  market cap. The NASDAQ 100 has been up for
• 2:09
  six straight months. That's something that's only
• 2:12
  happened 6 times since 1986. And the Magnificent 7?
• 2:17
  They're spending over 100 billion a quarter in CapEx,
• 2:20
  fueling the AI revolution. So why the hell are safe havens
• 2:24
  pumping with risk assets? That's right, gold is now moving
• 2:28
  91% In Sync with the stock market.
• 2:32
  I don't know if that's a flight to safety anymore.
• 2:34
  It's more like complete flight from the dollar.
• 2:38
  Inflation's rebounding. Labor markets are softening.
• 2:41
  So what's the Fed doing? Cutting rates?
• 2:43
  the US dollar is down 10% year to date.
• 2:46
  It's worst since the Nixon shock.
• 2:49
  It's lost 40% of its purchasing power since 2000.
• 2:53
  And for the first time since the 1990's, the Fed is cutting into
• 2:57
  3% plus core PCE inflation. We're not in Kansas anymore.
• 3:02
  Assets are pricing in a new era of monetary policy, one where
• 3:06
  the Fed has completely lost control.
• 3:08
  When safe havens, risk assets, real estate, and inflation all
• 3:12
  rise together, it's not growth, it's debasement.
• 3:16
  What you're watching isn't a trade, it's a migration from
• 3:20
  inside money to outside money. Gold and Bitcoin aren't
• 3:23
  speculative bets. They're a superior savings
• 3:26
  technology. And this right now is the sound
• 3:30
  money renaissance. Even CNBC says it The so-called
• 3:33
  debasement trade has gained traction amid rising debts and
• 3:37
  political instability, prompting a retreat from Fiat assets.
• 3:41
  Hey, look who that is. Well, come on, you know what
• 3:44
  that means, Mohammed. Better.
• 3:46
  Buy some Bitcoin, Mohammed. Take a look at this Since 2020,
• 3:50
  here's how assets have performed in U.S. dollars.
• 3:53
  The NASDAQ is up 165%, the S&P up 102%.
• 3:59
  Home prices are up 56%. Now in gold, the NASDAQ is up
• 4:03
  7%, the S&P is down 18%, and home prices are down 37%.
• 4:10
  Now let's do Bitcoin. The NASDAQ is down 78%, the S&P
• 4:15
  is down 84%, and home prices are they're down 87%.
• 4:21
  In other words, the rally only exists in a debasing currency.
• 4:25
  When priced in real money. It's all melting ice cubes and
• 4:29
  the Fed just reignited the wealth gap.
• 4:31
  Nuke. The bottom 50% of Americans hold
• 4:33
  just 2.5% of total wealth. Asset owners.
• 4:37
  They're winning big. Everyone else getting absolutely
• 4:40
  crushed by inflation. Take a look at this since
• 4:43
  ChatGPT dropped in 2022. Job openings plummeted, stocks
• 4:48
  exploded, loaded productivity for machines, inflation for
• 4:52
  humans. We are in a generational shift
• 4:55
  and Bitcoin is the escape hat. So as the US debt knocks on $38
• 4:59
  trillion door, adding 6 billion a day, it's clear this isn't a
• 5:05
  rally, it's a currency event. And you can see why Michael
• 5:08
  Saylor's grinning like a Bond villain.
• 5:10
  MicroStrategy just reported 3.9 billion in fair value Bitcoin
• 5:14
  gains for Q3. And get this for every 10K move.
• 5:18
  And Bitcoin price sailor racks up roughly 6 billion in
• 5:22
  unrealized gains and it looks like Jerome Powell's about to
• 5:30
  give us a PAMP and the bears their own life support.
• 5:34
  And that brings us to today's massive news from Morgan Stanley
• 5:37
  because when even the legacy giants start talking Bitcoin is
• 5:40
  digital gold, you know it's not a trade.
• 5:43
  It's literally a monetary revolution.
• 5:46
  Send it. This is the moment the Institute
• 5:49
  firewall finally cracks Morgan Stanley's Global Investment
• 5:52
  Committee. The same crew that used to call
• 5:54
  Bitcoin too volatile, too speculative, unmodelable, just
• 5:59
  formalized Bitcoin into portfolio theory.
• 6:02
  Everyone's focused on that 2 to 4% allocation, but that number
• 6:06
  doesn't matter. It's not about size, it's about
• 6:08
  inclusion. Once bitcoins inside official
• 6:12
  risk models, it's no longer an outsider.
• 6:15
  It becomes part of the system. Step 1 Portfolio folio
• 6:19
  canonization. By listing Bitcoin next to gold,
• 6:22
  they've redefined conservative. Every wealth manager under
• 6:26
  Morgan Stanley now has fiduciary cover to hold Bitcoin.
• 6:30
  Step 2. The belief loop across 1.3
• 6:33
  trillion in client assets. That's 26 to 52 billion of
• 6:36
  potential flows. That drives price, that
• 6:39
  validates the model, and it forces replication.
• 6:43
  That's how adoption becomes inevitable.
• 6:46
  Step 3, narrative legitimacy. When a tier one bank calls
• 6:49
  Bitcoin digital gold, the meme graduates from rebellion to
• 6:53
  orthodoxy. So who wins in the global race
• 6:56
  to acquire sound money as governments debase themselves
• 6:59
  into oblivion? Where is it all going to take
• 7:02
  Bitcoin? Max Keiser and Peter Dunworth
• 7:04
  are about to paint the walls with your brains.
• 7:06
  And what I'm saying is, you're not bullish enough.
• 7:09
  But before we bring it home, look at our likes 3 or 4 times
• 7:13
  maybe. I pump those numbers up.
• 7:15
  Those are rookie numbers in this racket.
• 7:16
  Let's take a quick second for our sponsors who keep this show
• 7:19
  on the air over at the Bitcoin way.
• 7:21
  If your wealth lives in their system, it's not yours, it's
• 7:24
  theirs. That's why we scream Bitcoin.
• 7:26
  That's why you self custody and that's why you call our friends
• 7:29
  over at the Bitcoin way. They'll walk you through multi
• 7:32
  sig self custody, privacy, how to run a node and the tools that
• 7:35
  keep you sovereign when the Fiat system pulls the plug.
• 7:38
  Don't wait till it's too late. Book a free 30 minute console
• 7:40
  today using that link in the show notes.
• 7:43
  Need cash but don't want to sell your Bitcoin?
• 7:45
  Leaden is the global leader in Bitcoin backed loans, issuing
• 7:49
  over 9 billion in loans since 2018 and they were the first to
• 7:52
  offer proof of reserves. With Leaden, you get custody
• 7:55
  loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more.
• 7:59
  Visit learn dot leaden dot IO slash simply to learn more and
• 8:03
  get 25 basis points off your first loan.
• 8:05
  Mentioned one way to deal with this is obviously raising
• 8:08
  interest rates to to to tackle inflation.
• 8:10
  An obvious move. But what is the answer to this
• 8:13
  problem? And what can the US Treasury and
• 8:16
  the Fed do right now to deal with this looming crisis?
• 8:22
  Well, yeah, raising rates is what Paul Volcker did in 1980
• 8:26
  when the debt to GDP ratio had was out of that was a
• 8:30
  possibility and it worked after a massive debt raising of
• 8:35
  interest rates into the 1819%, right.
• 8:38
  But the debt to GDP ratio right now is is you know, 10 times at
• 8:43
  least higher. So that's actually not going to
• 8:46
  work. There is no solution.
• 8:50
  That's why people are running into Bitcoin.
• 8:53
  That's why bitcoins worth over a trillion dollars now, why it's
• 8:56
  going to $10 trillion now is that people are running for the
• 8:58
  hills. They're getting out of Dodge.
• 9:01
  They're dumping their U.S. Treasury bonds, they're dumping
• 9:03
  whatever they can, and they're putting it into Bitcoin.
• 9:06
  And so Bitcoin, we're going to see Bitcoin be the major winner
• 9:10
  in this sovereign debt collapse globally.
• 9:12
  That's how you get to 2, three, $400,000 per Bitcoin.
• 9:15
  Everybody knows it now. Paul Tudor Jones, Stan
• 9:18
  Druckenmiller, Michael Saylor over at MicroStrategy.
• 9:22
  They're all openly talking about a speculative attack against the
• 9:25
  central banks. Borrow at that cheap rate, buy
• 9:27
  Bitcoin and let them die. That's what's going on.
• 9:31
  And Janet Yellen for one, expects these interest or these
• 9:35
  inflation levels rather to persist until mid 2022.
• 9:39
  Do you think that's an accurate forecast, or could we see these
• 9:42
  problems that persist into the years after that?
• 9:46
  You know, last year Janet Yellen said the biggest problem was
• 9:48
  deflation. Then they said, oh, you know
• 9:51
  what? It's actually inflation.
• 9:52
  Then they said the inflation was transitory.
• 9:54
  Now they're saying the inflation is going to be around for a few
• 9:57
  years. We're at the beginning of a
• 9:58
  multi year secular inflation that will last quite a quite a
• 10:02
  bit of time. We we are leaving a 40 year bull
• 10:08
  market in bonds. It started when Volcker finished
• 10:11
  his job back in 1980 and Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher
• 10:15
  came to office. And we've had 40 years of lower
• 10:17
  interest rates. Well, that's now finished.
• 10:19
  We're going to have now multi year period of rising interest
• 10:22
  rates. It's going to be worse than the
• 10:23
  1970s. We're going to see major
• 10:25
  defaults across the corporate world.
• 10:28
  We're going to see sovereign defaults and we're going to see
• 10:31
  more countries like El Salvador start to make Bitcoin legal
• 10:35
  tender to get out. And they're openly mocking the
• 10:37
  IMF. El Salvador is openly mocking
• 10:40
  the IMF on Twitter saying we're now we're buying Bitcoin, haha.
• 10:44
  And it's we're in a completely new era, a new world, a new
• 10:48
  global standard as Rand Paul, a senator in in America, has
• 10:54
  called on Bitcoin to be the new global monetary standard, not
• 10:58
  the dollar, not gold. Bitcoin now.
• 11:02
  If you think if you think that was bullish, check out this clip
• 11:06
  from Peter Dunworth. Looking forward, I think it's
• 11:09
  fair to assume that we're going to have half the return over the
• 11:12
  next 10 years, given the fact that we now have a whole host of
• 11:16
  tailwinds coming over the next 10 years.
• 11:18
  We have regulatory approval, government endorsement, a bond
• 11:22
  market that's Hungary for for yield.
• 11:24
  I can talk to you know what what that looks like by by way of
• 11:27
  flows, but that basically moves moves US100X over the next 10
• 11:33
  years and then work within spitting distance of 1000 X from
• 11:36
  there. That's only another 10X from
• 11:38
  where we are. And so I look at this and think
• 11:41
  the use case for Bitcoin to solve a huge amount of our
• 11:45
  problems, monetary and financial fiscal problems within the
• 11:49
  governments is so understated right now that once people
• 11:54
  comprehend how we can use this tool to solve a lot of our
• 11:57
  problems, we're going to see an immense amount of capital,
• 12:01
  capital flows into this. And and I look at all around,
• 12:05
  you know, the use cases, the primary use cases that I see
• 12:09
  that will lead us to that thousand X return.
• 12:13
  The number one that I look at is we're going to see Bitcoin used
• 12:16
  as pristine collateral to effectively recapitalize our
• 12:19
  entire financial markets. The the big thing that I look at
• 12:23
  here is is that we have had Wall Street speculate with Main St.
• 12:27
  consequence and Bitcoin is the first asset commodity, whatever
• 12:32
  you want to call it, that divorces Wall Street speculation
• 12:36
  from Main St. Consequence.
• 12:37
  What does that mean? This means that Wall Street can
• 12:40
  put an infinite amount of value and the government can put an
• 12:43
  infinite amount of value into this asset.
• 12:45
  It can go up exponentially. It can go up 1000 X from here,
• 12:48
  10,000 X. It doesn't matter because the
• 12:50
  problem that that the governments are going to solve
• 12:53
  by doing that is it's going to divorce Wall Street speculation
• 12:57
  from Main St. consequence. Up until this point in history,
• 13:00
  we haven't had a way of doing that.
• 13:02
  And there are bigger, I guess, implications for doing that that
• 13:06
  lead to, I guess, peace, prosperity, you know, the
• 13:08
  removal of the need for war. But most importantly, this is a
• 13:12
  way to recapitalize our banking system.
• 13:15
  And when the government can print an infinite amount of
• 13:17
  money, Bitcoin can store an infinite amount of value.
• 13:20
  And so I think it's very realistic for us to see 1000 X
• 13:23
  return in Bitcoin over the next 20 years, 1000.
• 13:26
  X over the next 20 years. Call a doctor.
• 13:30
  It's been longer than four hours.
• 13:32
  I can't feel my toes. All right, but now,
• 13:35
  hypothetically, what would it take for Bitcoin to hit 500 K?
• 13:39
  Today, we're sitting around 125 K That's a market cap of
• 13:43
  approximately 2.7 trillion. To hit 500 K, Bitcoin needs to
• 13:48
  climb to roughly 9.8 trillion. That's a 7 1/2 trillion dollar
• 13:54
  gap. Sounds pretty massive, right?
• 13:56
  But multiplier effect, you don't need 7.5 trillion in new money
• 14:02
  to get there. Bitcoin trades on the margin.
• 14:05
  Most coins never move. Price is set by the thin float.
• 14:09
  Historically, every dollar of inflow can move Bitcoin's market
• 14:12
  cap 10 to $20 plus because of that brutal scarcity.
• 14:16
  Like we said, something something multiplier effect.
• 14:20
  I don't entirely know what it means, but if we do use a
• 14:23
  conservative 1 to 10 ratio, we'd only need approximately about
• 14:27
  750 billion real inflows, an aggressive ratio, maybe 375
• 14:32
  billion. To put that in perspective.
• 14:35
  Global equities, 110 trillion, Global bonds, 130 trillion,
• 14:40
  gold, 15 trillion. It only takes a few drops from
• 14:44
  those oceans of capital, a few little percentage points
• 14:48
  reallocated, and bitcoins blasting off to half a million.
• 14:52
  Scarcity, illiquidity, belief, that's the rocket fuel of the
• 14:56
  debasement trade. What do you guys think the
• 14:59
  basement trade or just a saving money?
• 15:02
  Let us know down below and get those tickets to mining Disrupt
• 15:06
  2025. See the future of Bitcoin mining
• 15:09
  up close in Dallas, TX November 11th through the 13th.
• 15:12
  The biggest names in the industry, cutting edge rigs,
• 15:15
  Bitcoin and AI integration. The signal you won't get
• 15:18
  anywhere else. Grab your tickets today and use
• 15:21
  promo code Simply Bitcoin for 20% off and we'll see you there.
• 15:25
  Hope you guys enjoyed this one. Don't forget to like subscribe
• 15:27
  and give us a PAMP and set those notifications for the best in
• 15:30
  Bitcoin news delivered to you daily.
• 15:33
  Sophie Dante oceans to get a lot of great stuff coming your way.
• 15:36
  So stay tuned. Love you guys, see you
• 15:38
  Wednesday. If you.
• 15:41
  Prefer to go down with the ship.