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2023 Crop Tour Day 4 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_02: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_02: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_02: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_02: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_02: Let's get started.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: Today is August 10th, and I've got Jace and Corey here today for the day four crop tour summary of 2023.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_02: Jace, what did you see today and uh kind of where did we travel?
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so we started in the western side of Indiana in Lafayette, and we went zigzagged our way across the I guess you could say the northern side of Illinois and made our way to Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I guess the theme for today was just that the whole almost all the crops there, they had a dry start and that held back yields a little bit, but they looked to be finishing strong.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, pretty good overview there as we started in northwest Indiana.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: For the majority, uh Indiana had a fantastic crop as we finished that off.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_02: So I will give that uh yield tonight here.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_02: Indiana, we came out with a 196, which would be a record yield by about a bushel.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_02: So that was a really nice crop that we saw in Indiana this year.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_02: Not much holding that back.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_02: I I thought that was a little bit better than what some of the uh other expectations were for the state.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: I couldn't find much to hold it back.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_02: Uh not as much early drought concern, so I thought uh expectation-wise, it uh the conditions were a little bit better than what some of the other states like Illinois or Eastern Iowa were from what we saw.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: So the uh yield update and final for Indiana at 196 there.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_02: And then as we worked our way into Illinois, uh that continuing trend of middle of June, uh beginning of July, really hot weather, uh really had farmers discouraged, I know.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and then we started to find some rains a little bit more frequent.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_02: Tempts cooled off here a little bit now, really finishing out pretty decent.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_02: And we noticed that as we stopped at Biddle's farm there in uh western Illinois, something we've stopped at for many years, and uh really what we noticed was last year we expected really, really good crops out of the area records, and they did get it.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_02: But one of the things that went along with it was that finishing touch.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_02: It finished really well.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_02: And in eastern Iowa we noticed it it finished better than expected too there.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_02: And I mean it was pretty much perfect crops in that part of the world last year, too.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_02: So one thing we know is that the end of the year, that trend of uh a little bit better weather at the beginning of August on, and really finishing out fill and uh adding to the crop really mattered last year, and I think we're getting a lot of that right now in the corn belt with rainfalling nearly everywhere that we've gone so far within the last week.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_02: Uh getting ideal weather conditions.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's gonna be really important going forward.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_02: So uh what did you see, Corey, out of some of the states that we traveled through uh today?
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: Um, one of the main things that I saw was it was really hard to see the early dryness, the damage that it caused, and it was pretty easily hid by the recent rains, and so you couldn't really tell, it was very inconsistent, and sometimes there'd be random ears that were just not really fully developed, and they would just throw the yield off of that field, and it was just very hard to get an accurate yield for the county when you had those yields spread out or those ears spread in there.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_02: That's such a yeah, that's a a great statement there.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_02: I would uh agree with.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_02: We said that a lot today.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_02: It was just a really hard uh route to try to judge today with inconsistency a little bit here and there, nothing major where you had huge areas of bad crops, but I mean uh you'd throw an ear in there out of the sample, after about ten of them, you'd throw in a bad ear, and it it made it really hard to judge.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_02: The grass was green, the crop didn't look too bad from the road.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_02: You get in there and the sample was a little disappointing.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_02: It'd have a little tip back on there, or maybe there was a a smidge of firing up on the bottom of the crop, but it had been halted by the recent rains, and it's not really getting any worse.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_02: So that made it really difficult to judge some of the crop through northern Illinois today, and uh, I think that'll be maybe a trend to follow uh further on in uh the August Wasd Airport and September to really see how this crop finishes out and what kind of damage was done early on in Illinois because it without getting in the fields, it's gonna be a difficult one to judge.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_02: So when we uh come up with the uh Illinois yield here at uh 203, that that yield was pretty difficult to come up with.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_02: Uh I had a tough time with that record at 214.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_02: And uh looking at some of the other ranges, I mean, all the way from the mid-180s to the low 200s, uh there's a lot of variability in the Illinois number.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_02: It's changing pretty rapidly.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's improved conditions.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_02: If you would have asked a lot of people what the Illinois yield was going to do a month ago, it would be significantly lower than what we're doing today with how we're finishing this crop off.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_02: And not saying that's not, you know, 13 bushel off of a record or anything like that, because it is.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_02: Um it's a little bit better than maybe what some of the expectations are today, and uh mainly just because of how that crop is finishing out.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_02: So that's one of the bigger uh variables I think that we're gonna be following, obviously, uh, with Illinois carrying a pretty big stick in crop production for the United States with just under 15% of the total corn production grown.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_02: Uh that's gonna that's gonna matter a lot by the end of this uh end of this uh week here with Friday coming out with a Wazd Airport.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_02: So that'll be something to keep in mind and uh really follow going forward.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_02: But those were the yield updates we had today.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_02: Uh finishing thoughts, we're gonna wrap up with Iowa tomorrow, kind of go through uh uh Eastern Side, do a couple farmer visits, and then wrap through the middle of uh through Kassooth County there, and then uh end up back home tomorrow afternoon.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_02: So we'll wrap up our results, give you guys our final yield estimate tomorrow, and uh we'll see you next time.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_02: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_02: Please reach out to us at professional eggmarketing.com.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_02: Check out our other podcast as well, Professional Egg Marketing.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_02: It's released every Friday.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_02: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_02: See you next time.