Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 31 - 4/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 31 - 4/25/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 31 of the All
0:23
Systems Go Sports betting podcast, powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Appelbaum.
0:32
What's going on everyone? Happy
0:34
Thursday. Thursday, but more importantly, happy
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NFL Draft Day. That's right, the draft is finally
0:40
here, so a lot of the hay is in the barn, but I
0:43
actually do have a bunch of updates for you on some
0:46
plays that we've already made. Knock
0:47
on wood, we're looking pretty good with some CLV
0:50
here. I just added two more prop
0:52
bets. One is a bit of a hedge with
0:53
some plus money, and another is a little bit of
0:56
a source play from my buddy and colleague, Michael
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Lombardi, getting some intel on a quarterback. It
1:01
might not be the one that you're thinking about. We're
1:04
going to talk a lot of NFL draft, which again, is
1:07
going to be a lot of fun here. I
1:08
also have one bet in particular to monitor. I'm
1:11
leaning on one guy, but I want the late movement to
1:14
be in my direction. Today is a great day to finalize
1:17
our card, look at what we've bet, how lines have
1:20
moved, and hopefully have a big night here for the NFL
1:22
Draft. Also, I do have a couple bets
1:24
for you guys in terms of sweats for tonight. No
1:27
Major League Baseball, there's a bunch of daygames
1:30
that I'm sweating right now currently, but I do have
1:32
three bets for you, and they're all player props.
1:34
So I have two NHL player
1:36
props for you guys tonight in the NHL postseason. I
1:39
do have one NBA player prop, which is a great
1:42
rhythm edge, which is a guy that we like because
1:44
he cashed for us a few days ago, and we're going
1:46
right back to the well for tonight. So
1:48
a lot of NFL Draft talk, bunch of player props here,
1:51
we're going to talk about it all on episode 31 of
1:54
the All Systems Go Pod on a big NFL Draft Day, big
1:58
Thursday. Now, looking back toward last
2:00
night, 3 -3 minus 0 .82 units. Now
2:04
we did have a really good winner with the Thai Dome,
2:06
I keep saying Thai Dome, that's his dad. You
2:08
know you're getting old when you think about a
2:09
player's dad, but Max Dome over 1 .5 shots on goal,
2:13
ended up with 5, so it's great to see that hit.
2:15
Also, I was very happy sitting
2:18
with my dad watching the game, rooting on the
2:20
Bruins. They got down 1 -0, roared back,
2:23
and ended up winning the game 4 -2, so it's great
2:24
to watch that with my dad, who is my hero, he's my
2:29
role model. He made me a Bruins fan, so
2:30
it was very special for us to watch the Bruins game
2:33
together. So really enjoyed that. We
2:35
also got the Reds and the Brewers, both came through
2:37
for us, but unfortunately the Jays and the Guardians
2:40
lost, and Peyton Prichard, what the heck man, Peyton
2:43
Prichard, over 10 .5 points in rebounds, and I want to
2:46
say, let me double check from yesterday, he was
2:49
projected to get 13 .8 from Rhythm, and Peyton Prichard,
2:53
he played 20 minutes, he didn't take a single shot.
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Oh, 0 -0 field goal, didn't
2:58
take a single shot, he had 1 rebound, so that's about
3:01
as bad as it gets there. Peyton
3:02
Prichard, you were on my no bet list here moving
3:04
forward, but it goes to show you the Celtics, just
3:06
when you think they're putting it all together,
3:08
they're finally understanding, never to take
3:10
your foot off the gas, they lose as a 14 .5 point
3:13
favorite yesterday to Jimmy Butler. So
3:17
I don't know if anyone took the money line there,
3:18
what was it, plus 8 .50 with Miami, obviously I
3:21
didn't, but me and my dad decided to DVR the Bruins
3:24
game, watch that first, then watch the Celtics game
3:27
after, and actually anyone who DVR's this, it was
3:30
kind of annoying because you know how they have the
3:32
ticker on the bottom of the TV, well right when we
3:34
finished the Bruins game, we flip over to start the
3:37
Celtics game, and in between flipping channels on
3:39
the bottom of the ticker, we saw that the Celtics
3:41
lost, 111 to 101, so me and my dad, it was late,
3:46
today's his birthday actually, so we're going
3:48
out to dinner here tonight, but we saw the score and
3:52
were like, do we really want to watch the Celtics
3:53
lose? No, screw it, so not only did
3:56
the Celts not show up, but Prichard in particular
3:58
didn't show up either, so what are you going to do?
4:01
But either way guys, to me,
4:03
it's a special day, it's all about the NFL draft,
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we have a lot of bets here that I'm going to
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update you on, bets that we've already made, where
4:09
they stand now, as well as two more, then of course
4:12
we'll finish up here with a couple prop bets, where
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in the NHL shots on goal, I don't know, we might be
4:18
getting an edge here, so I'm excited to break it
4:20
all down to you today on episode 31 of the All
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Systems Go Pod. Now, let's dive right in,
4:25
because I want to talk NFL draft, because today
4:27
obviously it's a culmination of, if you're like me and
4:30
you're monitoring these numbers for quite a while,
4:32
this is literally weeks, months of looking at
4:35
numbers and trying to make good bets, and really it
4:38
all comes to fruition here for tonight. So
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I want to talk about bets we've made, where we bet
4:43
them, where they are currently, and then add on
4:45
a couple more. So let's start off with the
4:47
updated numbers here for pick one, two and three.
4:50
Now we know Caleb Williams,
4:52
fated, complete, no such thing as a locker or
4:54
guarantee in sports betting, but that's about as much
4:56
of a lock as you can be. Caleb
4:58
Williams minus 20 ,000, now at DraftKings through the
5:01
first overall pick. Now Jayden Daniels, up to minus
5:04
a thousand to be the second overall pick, you're
5:07
expecting him to go to the commanders. Now
5:10
number three, we do have Drake May minus 300, J .J.
5:13
McCarthy is plus 180. So
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I'm feeling pretty good about Williams won Daniels
5:18
too, but you know, you would expect it to be May
5:20
at minus 300. J .J. McCarthy,
5:22
obviously, if the Patriots keep their pick, do you
5:25
take McCarthy? There's a lot of rumors that, and
5:28
again, I'm based in New England here, I'm a
5:29
Bostonian, so a lot of tea leaves saying that the Pats
5:34
love McCarthy, but you're hearing that maybe they
5:36
trade down and maybe have to trade back up and get
5:39
McCarthy at five or seven or ten or something like
5:42
that. So still expect May to go
5:44
third here. Now why am I mentioning this?
5:46
Because we did bet earlier this
5:48
week or maybe it was last week, an exacta. So
5:51
one Williams, two Daniels, three May, we got minus
5:54
145. It is now on Draft Day minus
5:58
250. So we're looking good right
6:00
there. Next bet that we talked about,
6:02
Brock Bowers, the big tight end from Georgia. Bet
6:06
him under 12 .5, so he has to go drafted one through
6:10
12 at minus 140. Now it's minus 250. So
6:14
we're looking good with Brock Bowers. Michael
6:16
Penex under 32 .5. Basically,
6:18
he has to be a first round pick. Got
6:20
that at a very nice minus 120. Now
6:23
it's minus 370. So good CLV with Penex.
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Murphy, the big defensive tackle on
6:29
the line here for the Longhorns under 14 .5. Draft
6:33
position got that at minus 150. Now
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it's 13 .5. So it's fallen down a full
6:38
spot here and it's 13 .5 under minus 175. So
6:42
we really got some good CLV on that one. Now
6:45
Turner, first defensive lineman or Edge got that
6:48
at plus 100. It's now minus 115. So
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whole point here, I want to take a small break
6:54
here. You know, up if you didn't
6:56
like, for example, all the ones I mentioned, if you
6:59
bet it already, this is all great news to you
7:02
because you're beating the closing line. It
7:04
tells us that we made a good bet at a good number
7:06
and the lines are coming in our direction. If
7:08
you haven't bet it yet, it becomes a kind of a
7:11
personal decision for you. Like
7:12
I'll give you an example. Are
7:14
you going to play Michael Penex under 32 .5 right now
7:17
if you missed it when we talked about it minus 120
7:19
and now it's minus 370? Probably
7:22
not. I hope it cashes. It
7:23
looks like it will, but you're laying a 370 when
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it opened, when we got it at minus 120. So
7:28
if you want to lay off, I totally get it. For
7:30
example, though, Turner, first defensive lineman or
7:33
Edge, we got plus 100. Now it's minus 115. So
7:36
that would be a bet that's worth making for me because
7:38
you're only missing 15 cents. That's
7:40
still a pretty good number. So
7:42
always remember what you have in pocket and versus
7:46
if you didn't bet it yet, is there still value? You
7:48
should always ask yourself that, especially when it
7:50
comes to these prop bets that the juice can really
7:52
move one way or the other drastically in one
7:54
direction, especially as news leaks out, information
7:57
leaks out day of, there's not much speculation
8:00
anymore. Now kind of the solid leaks
8:02
here are pretty legit. Keep on cruising. We
8:06
also talked, I believe it was yesterday or the day
8:08
before Quinyan Mitchell, first cornerback. I
8:11
got him at minus 140. I have a source that tells
8:13
me that he will be the first corner selected from
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Toledo. He's now minus 155 to be first
8:19
corner. So that's good 15 cents of
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movement in our direction minus 155. That
8:23
still feels like a bettable number. First
8:26
running back, Brooks, I believe also from Texas got
8:30
him plus 110. Now it's minus 105. So
8:33
also good news moving in our direction and minus
8:35
105. That's a number that still
8:37
probably has some value. Now
8:38
first linebacker, Junior Coulson, I got him at plus
8:41
125. He's now plus 100. So
8:44
feeling pretty good about that one. That
8:45
one still has some value. We
8:47
also talked Amarius Mims, the big offensive tackle,
8:50
the lineman from Georgia, under 22 and a half at
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minus 160. It's now 21 and a half under
8:56
minus 150. So again, judgment called the
8:59
juices less, but he fell a full position. You'd
9:01
hate to see Mims land at 22 where under 22 and a
9:04
half caches, you get a late under 21 and a half,
9:07
even though you get better juice, you lose. So
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that's, I'm going to leave that up to you, but
9:10
hopefully, again, if you've listened to this pod,
9:12
you've jumped on these numbers, hopefully, when we
9:14
talked about it. Here's another great one with some
9:16
movement. Terry and Arnold versus Jared
9:20
Verce from Florida State, who will be drafted first.
9:23
We got Arnold on, I believe
9:25
yesterday's pod at minus 160. Now
9:27
it's minus 200. So you love to see it. And
9:30
I'll just be honest with you guys, I don't really
9:32
go more than minus 200 with these prop bets. If
9:34
it's more than that, yeah, you feel like you're going
9:37
to cash it, but again, it's low limits. You're
9:39
risking a unit, you're getting less than a half
9:41
unit back. That's my cutoff usually minus
9:43
200. So what do we mention there
9:45
1234567891010 bets where we're looking pretty good
9:51
fingers crossed, where we're getting closing line value.
9:53
Now I'm going to give you a
9:55
bet that isn't looking good anymore. So
9:57
it's kind of gone the other way, but I found a
9:59
way to kind of hedge this bet. So
10:01
the bet here is the second offensive linemen selected.
10:04
And what we've seen here, in
10:07
terms of second offensive linemen cycle, let's start
10:09
first. And who's going first Joe all
10:11
most likely Joe all he's minus 250 to be the first
10:14
overall selection. But here's where I think you
10:17
should maybe consider making a second bet if you
10:19
already bet, uh, foo aga like me. So
10:23
what am I getting at second offensive linemen
10:26
selected? At the time, I want to say
10:28
it was last week, I got foo aga at plus 210. He
10:32
is now plus 300. So the line's going away for
10:35
me. That's not good. But
10:37
here's the thing, JC Latham, who has made a
10:40
really big leap here over the last 24 to 48 hours
10:42
to be the second offensive linemen selected, he is now
10:45
plus 150. So what I did is I bet
10:48
Latham to go second offensive linemen selected
10:51
and I took that plus 150. So
10:53
here's the thing, we need it to be either Latham or
10:56
foo aga, but as long as one of those guys cash, we
10:59
are going to make some money here. Like
11:01
for example, if Latham goes second overall, we'll lose
11:05
a unit on foo aga, but we'll gain 1 .5 units on
11:08
Latham. So we'll still profit a half
11:10
unit. Now, if this theme on Latham is
11:13
wrong and foo aga hits, we'll get 2 .1 units. We'll
11:16
lose our one unit on Latham, but we'll still
11:18
make, you know, 1 .1 units. So
11:21
this is a bit of a hedge. I
11:22
want to guarantee a profit. I
11:24
want to guarantee some plus money. And
11:25
if you look at these over unders, joe all I believe
11:28
is seven and a half under juiced up quite a bit.
11:30
Latham, I think is 10 and a half
11:32
foo aga is like 13. So this is kind of how
11:35
sometimes even if a line goes away from you and
11:38
you're starting to get a little nervous, there's an
11:40
opportunity here if you get plus money, like if Latham
11:42
was, you know, minus 120, I'd probably just say, you
11:46
know, screw it, I'll just ride out and see if I get
11:48
lucky with foo aga. But as long as we're getting
11:50
plus money on two guys, and it's decent plus money
11:53
plus 150 plus 210, you know, as long as one of
11:56
them hits, we're good. Now, on the off chance that
11:59
both of them lose, then we're screwed. We
12:01
lose two units. But again, joe all expected to
12:03
go on Latham with a lot of steam. So
12:06
I'm going to go and add one more bet on Latham, a
12:09
bit of a hedge, bit of a protection play here, JC
12:12
Latham, second O -Lionman selected at plus 150.
12:16
Remember, of course, also that
12:18
different books have different numbers. So
12:20
you may find a better number with all these bets
12:22
that I talked about, as long as you can shop shop
12:24
around and get the best number. Now,
12:27
the one bet I added today, which is a totally new bet
12:29
for me, is Bonix. Now, Bonix, I want to give a
12:35
shout out to my guy, Michael Lombardi, who is
12:37
very dialed in. I used to work with Michael
12:39
Lombardi on the Lombardi line when I first started
12:41
at Vecen. But Michael Lombardi mentioned
12:44
in the newsletter for Vecen .com that he's hearing six
12:47
quarterbacks in round one, including Bonix, to go on
12:50
the first round. Now, Bonix, if you go back
12:52
about a week or so, I believe he was 32 and a
12:55
half over minus 250. It was a pretty hefty price
12:59
here that he goes, basically doesn't get
13:01
drafted round one somewhere around two over 32 and a
13:04
half. Well, Bonix over the last about
13:06
24 hours has moved bigly in terms of juice. So
13:10
Bonix went from juiced up over 32 and a half to now
13:14
under 32 and a half at minus 125. So
13:18
are we getting plus money on the under? No,
13:20
but minus 125 is not a bad juice price. Lombardi's
13:24
got Intel, he's going to be a first round pick. And
13:26
also you are hearing maybe the Rams obviously have
13:29
Stafford, but there's Stafford is getting older
13:33
and Bonix is old rookie, I think he's 24 years old. I
13:37
believe he set the record for most starts in the in
13:40
college here. But Bonix to go in the first
13:42
round, I placed that bet under 32 and a half at
13:45
minus 125. And if you look at in terms
13:48
of, let's see the position totals, the quarterbacks,
13:53
which I believe it's been so long, I want to say I
13:56
took over 40 over four and a half at minus 175. It's
14:01
now over four and a half at minus 500. So
14:04
whether it's five or six doesn't matter, you still
14:06
cash over four and a half. But
14:07
just goes to show you that hopefully the steam on
14:09
Bonix is legit. So I did add Bonix under 32
14:13
and a half at minus 125. Now,
14:16
today, to me, it's really important, even if you're
14:19
listening to this pot and you haven't done it yet,
14:20
go to your sports book screenshot a lot of this
14:22
stuff, just look for late steam. Because
14:25
remember, the closer we get to the draft, and more and
14:28
more info leaks out. But also pretty soon, these
14:31
markets are going to close. So
14:33
you'll be just sitting on your, your computer, your
14:35
laptop, your tablet, whatever, you'll be looking
14:37
at over under draft position, then boom, they
14:39
start to evaporate, they start to come off the
14:41
board, because they're moving too much. Now,
14:45
to me, screenshot it, you know, see what happens now
14:48
through the afternoon. But I'll give you one more to
14:50
monitor. One that I've been looking at
14:52
and going back on fourth on is the safety first
14:57
safety selected. Now right now, Tyler Newbin is
15:00
plus 125, he's the favorite. Javan
15:03
Bullard is plus 225. Jaden Hicks is plus 400. And
15:06
then pretty much everyone else is, you know, pretty,
15:08
pretty much far off there. I'm
15:10
intrigued by Newbin. He's a favorite, I would expect
15:12
for a reason. Bullard is right behind him. This
15:16
is a bet that I haven't made yet, but I want to
15:17
see basically if Newbin goes from plus 125, down
15:21
to plus 100 flips to minus 120, minus 150. What
15:25
I'm getting at is I haven't bet it yet. This
15:27
would be a perfect example of how to take advantage
15:29
of line movement on draft day. So,
15:31
you know, if you want to bookmark it, you want to
15:33
see how it moves or think about this way, Newbin's
15:35
plus 125. Javan Bullard's plus 225. What
15:39
if Bullard gets down to plus 150 plus 100? He
15:42
could leapfrog Newbin. Whole point being is let's let's
15:45
identify that late movement and go with that sharp
15:47
steam. So Newbin, Bullard, Hicks,
15:50
again, that's that's a market that still has some
15:53
pretty good opportunities there on the day of now.
15:56
I'll give you one last one. I
15:56
wanted to mention this one too. But
15:58
if you look at the tight end, the second tight end
16:02
selected right now, Ben Sinot or Sinot is plus
16:05
140, the favorite Theo Johnson's plus 250,
16:09
Jotaevion Sanders is plus 310. This
16:11
is what I like to look at markets where everyone's a
16:13
plus money number. And then you follow the late
16:15
movement and go with, you know, who sees that that
16:18
line moving their favor. So Sinot's the favor plus 140.
16:22
What if he gets down to plus
16:23
100, flips to minus 120? Okay,
16:25
we'll play Sinot, or maybe Theo Johnson plus 250 gets
16:29
closer to even money. Boom, we'll play that late
16:31
movement. So whole point being is all
16:34
these draft bets that I mentioned to you, I got 12
16:36
picks tonight guys, I'm locked and loaded. But
16:39
if there are markets that you haven't bet yet, you're
16:41
still looking for value, second tight end, first
16:43
safety, those are the two to monitor today and
16:46
hopefully take advantage before these lines move too
16:48
much. So there you have it, the
16:50
draft baby, locked and loaded. If
16:52
you noticed, I like betting drafts. I
16:53
think it's a great opportunity to build your
16:55
bankroll. But now let's look forward
16:57
tonight. We got some sweats here
16:58
tonight that we can hopefully take advantage of.
17:00
And I want to go first to the
17:03
NHL market, because I don't want to jinx it. We've
17:07
cashed a couple shots on goal in a row. Nishushkin,
17:10
as well as Domi last night. And
17:12
I'm using the same thought process, looking for juiced
17:15
up props, looking for hopefully good box scores
17:18
or kind of trends in one direction or the other. And
17:21
I found two of them for you tonight. Now
17:23
there's only two games. We have the Panthers and Tampa
17:25
Bay Lightning, Panthers are up 2 -0, and Carolina in
17:28
the Islanders, Carolina is up 2 -0. So
17:30
let's start off with that early one, 7 o 'clock
17:32
Florida Tampa Bay. I am taking a shot on Sam
17:37
Reinhart over two and a half shots on goal. I
17:40
got that at minus 160. So it's a little juicy here.
17:43
But I think it's juiced up for
17:44
a reason. Now, if you haven't noticed, Sam
17:46
Reinhart had a great year, 57 goals, 37 assists, he
17:51
had 94 points. Remember, he was with Buffalo for a
17:54
while, went to Florida, absolutely is just
17:56
skyrocketed and been great since he came to Florida.
17:59
I think he's won second most
18:00
goals behind Matthews, 69. Nice.
18:05
But anyway, Sam Reinhart over two and a half shots
18:07
on goal. Number one, it's juiced up over
18:09
minus 160. Tells us there's liability over.
18:12
Let's look at the box score. In
18:13
game one, he had five shots. In
18:16
game two, he had six shots. He
18:20
has gone over two and a half shots on goal. So
18:22
he's had three shots or more in 11 of his last 12
18:25
games. So dating back through the end
18:28
of regular season into the postseason, 11 -1 to the
18:31
over two and a half is last 12. It
18:33
doesn't hurt that he skates on the first line with
18:36
both Barkov and Tarasenko. Hopefully
18:38
a lot of opportunities offensively for Sam
18:41
Reinhart. And if you look at his time
18:43
on ice, that's important too because we want to bet
18:45
if we're in the sport or the field or whatever, on
18:51
like a guy like Prichard last night who let us
18:53
down, well, he only got 20 minutes. Like
18:54
what's important here is that Sam Reinhart is one
18:57
of the top minutes per game, guys, for Florida. In
19:01
game one, he had 22 minutes and 42 seconds of
19:03
ice time. In game two, he had 24
19:05
minutes and 36 seconds of ice time. So
19:10
he's gone over two and a half, 11 of his last 12.
19:12
He gets a ton of ice time.
19:14
He's averaged five and a half
19:16
shots through two games. I think there's an opportunity
19:18
here to back Sam Reinhart of Florida over two and a
19:22
half shots on goal. I got that at minus 160.
19:26
Next up for you, Carolina and
19:29
the Islanders. As I mentioned, desperate spot
19:31
for the Islanders, they're down 0 -2. And
19:33
we're going to focus on another guy shots on goal,
19:36
the captain. I think he's the captain, Bo
19:38
Horvat. Bo Horvat over two and a half
19:41
shots on goal. So we need three or more from
19:44
Bo Horvat. Now this is juiced up over
19:46
minus 130, so it's not quite as expensive as the
19:49
Reinhart bet. But in game one, Bo Horvat had
19:53
five shots on goal. In game two, he had three
19:56
shots on goal. So he's averaged four per
20:00
game. Now we just need three from
20:01
him tonight. But he's gone over two and a
20:03
half shots on goal, four and oh, his last four
20:06
games, eight and two, his last 10 games. I
20:10
would also imagine, you know, a desperation type
20:12
situation for the Islanders down 0 -2, pucks on net.
20:16
Hopefully you get a lot of offensive
20:18
time here in a desperation spot. You
20:21
can't go down 0 -3. So I'm really hoping that's a
20:24
bit of a boost offensively. But
20:25
also, just like Reinhart, he skates on the first
20:27
line with Sezekus and Barzal. And
20:30
he averages a ton of time on ice. Game
20:32
one, he had 21 minutes and 29 seconds. Game
20:35
two, 19 minutes, 24 seconds. This
20:37
is a guy that's gone over two and a half shots on
20:39
goal. Again, eight of his last 10, four
20:42
and oh, his last four juiced up over desperation
20:44
spot. I'm going Bo Horvat over two
20:48
and a half shots on goal. So
20:50
Reinhart over two and a half, Horvat over two and
20:53
a half. Now to finish up the pod on a
20:55
big NFL Draft Day, we're going back to the well
20:58
with Mr. Reliable, Max Struz. Our
21:02
guy, Max Struz. So this is a Cleveland,
21:06
Orlando Magic game tonight. Did
21:07
notice some movement toward the Magic. They
21:09
went dog to fave. They were, I believe, getting a
21:12
point at the open. Or maybe they're, yeah, they're
21:14
plus one. Now they're minus two and a
21:16
half. So sharp move is going toward
21:17
the Magic. It looks like there may be
21:19
some over money in this game. The
21:20
total open at like 200. Now
21:22
it's 201 and a half. But I'm going to stick with
21:25
the prop bet situation here. And
21:27
I'm going to go with Max Struz over 13 and a half
21:30
points and rebounds. Now it's juiced up over minus
21:33
140. So liability to the over. Now
21:36
rhythm is projecting 17 .4 combined points and
21:40
rebounds. You will remember that Struz
21:43
did go over this number. When
21:44
we played him was it game one or game two? I
21:46
forget which one. But it was around the same
21:49
number. He finished with 16. Now
21:51
ironically, game one, he had seven points, nine
21:53
rebounds. Game two, he had seven points,
21:55
nine rebounds. So both games, he had combined
21:57
16 points and rebounds. Plays
22:00
a lot of minutes, 37 minutes in game two, 33
22:02
minutes in game one. So hopefully he's out there
22:05
for quite a bit so he can accrue these stats to go
22:08
over. Now he's gone over this number
22:10
in four of his last five games. And
22:12
he's seven and three to the over in his last 10.
22:15
So this is a guy that cashed
22:16
us earlier in the series. By
22:19
the way, we are looking pretty good with our cabs
22:21
series price. We got it at minus, I want
22:24
to say minus 190. We pull it up here because
22:27
it's got to be minus 500. Let
22:29
me double check NBA. Let's go to series bets. We
22:34
have the cabs minus 700. So
22:36
boom, we're looking good on that one. And
22:38
also our Bruins. Bruins, huge, just a huge win from
22:42
the Bruins last night. But the Bruins got minus 125.
22:46
I'm looking this up now. They
22:48
got to be a, I don't know, minus 200 now up two
22:50
to one in the series. Let's
22:52
see the Bruins are minus 275. So
22:54
we're looking good on both of those right now. But
22:57
anyway, guys, Max Truce, Mr. Reliable.
22:59
See if we can do it again for us over 13 and a half
23:02
points and rebounds at minus 140. So
23:04
Struce over 13 and a half points and rebounds, Horvath
23:07
over two and a half shots on goal, Reinhardt over two
23:09
and a half shots on goal. Those
23:10
are our three bets for tonight. And
23:13
that's fine with me because it's all about the NFL
23:15
draft. Let's see if we can take
23:17
advantage and see if our hard work at monitoring
23:19
these numbers pays off. Hopefully
23:21
it will tonight. So that about does it episode
23:24
31 now in the books for the All Systems Go pod.
23:28
But reminder, a little
23:29
housekeeping, I always want to end the pod with a
23:31
couple thoughts, notes, a couple, a couple questions
23:33
that I can ask of you to help me out. The
23:35
first one is, can you please help me to grow the
23:38
All Systems Go sports betting podcast? The
23:40
easiest thing you can do, tell a friend, recommend
23:42
it. When it gets tweeted out from
23:45
my account and the All Systems Go Twitter account,
23:47
can you give it a like? Can
23:48
you give it a retweet? Kind
23:50
of improve the engagement. That
23:51
would be great. But really what I'd love for
23:53
you to do and what I'm asking you to do is give
23:55
it a five star review. Only
23:57
takes a second or two, but Spotify or iTunes, give it
24:00
five stars that really helps us to rise up the
24:02
charts and get more exposure and get a better
24:04
ranking. So if you want to give it
24:06
five stars, that would make my day. Then
24:08
of course, if you enjoy the All Systems Go pod,
24:11
maybe it's helped you to think through betting a
24:13
little differently, looking at line movement, trying to
24:16
put your bias at the door, bet based on what the
24:18
market is doing, learn to read the market, but with
24:20
your head and not your heart, maybe you're looking
24:22
more at line movement system matches, bets splits,
24:25
your flat betting, you're not parlaying, you're
24:28
tracking your bets, whatever the case may be, if this
24:30
pod has helped you at all in your sports betting
24:32
journey to make some money and become a sharper
24:34
better, then there's one more thing I ask of you.
24:37
Can you go buy my book? You
24:38
got 23 bucks, hopefully, or 20 extra bucks in your
24:41
pocket. Go to Amazon .com, type in the
24:43
everything guide to sports betting, pick one up for
24:46
you or for a friend. It would mean a lot to me,
24:47
guys. It's got everything I've learned
24:49
in the industry. Since I started working in 2011,
24:53
I can't believe it's it's now what 13, 14 year
24:55
veteran in the sports betting industry. But
24:58
anyway, how lines are set, how and why they move, how
25:00
to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how
25:03
to place a bet in person or online, how to shop for
25:05
the best line, how to set up a bankroll management
25:07
plan. It's all included in my book,
25:09
The Everything Guide to Sports Betting. So
25:10
if you want to just support the team or give
25:12
it as a gift, you got no freaking clue to what to
25:15
get your dad for Father's Day or somebody's birthday
25:18
or going away party, who knows. But
25:21
if they're in a newly legalized market or maybe
25:24
they just bet on sports, want to learn more about
25:26
sports betting, don't know where to begin. It's
25:28
a very simple, easy gift to give. And
25:30
you're going to learn more about sports betting,
25:32
hopefully, and become a sharper better. So
25:33
buy my book, The Everything Guide to Sports Betting,
25:35
support the team. And when I see you at the
25:37
book, not my book, but the book, the sports book, I'm
25:40
going to buy you a beer and sign the sign the book
25:42
for you. But that about does it guys.
25:45
As I mentioned another pod
25:46
here in the books reminder, whether I see you at the
25:49
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island,
25:51
the Brook in New Hampshire, Fox Woods or Mohegan Sun
25:54
down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
25:56
Ridge Park, Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of
25:59
the woods in Massachusetts, or of course out in the
26:02
desert where the true grinders get down where
26:04
Billy Walter sends his number runners, where the
26:06
lowest juice possible is found at the South Point,
26:08
Swinton Sharp, Contrarian plays jumping in the
26:10
stadium, swim pool when you cash a big ticket at
26:13
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to
26:15
me. You're going to show me a few
26:16
tickets from last night. Show
26:18
me a Max Domi over one and a half shots on gold
26:21
ticket. Show me a Reds ticket. Show
26:22
me a Brewer's ticket, whatever you do, take that
26:25
Payton Prichard ticket, rip it up and don't throw it
26:28
in the trash, recycle it. But
26:29
man, Prichard, what a no show. What
26:31
a no show by the Celtics. 14 and a half point
26:33
favorite and you lose with no Jimmy Butler. This
26:36
is what I worry about this team. I
26:38
don't know. What's the, what are the odds on
26:40
the Denver Nuggets to win the title? I
26:41
think that's the play. The Celtics never learn, super
26:44
talented and just continue to let you down. But
26:46
hey, what are you going to do? At
26:47
least they got the Bruins last night. But
26:49
that about does it everybody. My
26:51
parting words as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian,
26:54
bet against the public, place yourself on the side
26:56
of the house, always be with the smart money, never
26:58
against it. Will smart money win every time?
27:01
Of course not. If
27:01
you haven't realized yet, sports betting is hard and
27:04
ain't easy, but that makes you kind of realize and
27:07
give you perspective when you're struggling, that
27:09
you're in a tough market and just keep grinding.
27:11
When you're doing well, it gives
27:12
you confidence that we can win in a very tough
27:14
market. And if we can find that sweet
27:16
spot, which is against the public, with the house,
27:19
with the pros, flat, bet, avoid par, lays and get
27:21
some closing line value. If we can do that, we're
27:24
going to be successful sports betters. So
27:26
enjoy the sweats tonight guys. Say
27:27
a prayer for our NFL draft prop bets. Let's
27:30
see if we can cash them tickets and come back
27:31
tomorrow for episode 32 of the All Systems Go pod,
27:36
which I think is going to be a few biting plays for
27:38
you. And if I didn't mention before,
27:40
I'm going to be gone all weekend to my buddy's
27:42
bachelor party. We rented a cabin up in New
27:45
Hampshire and we will be betting on a lot of
27:48
sports, grilling, thrilling, chilling. It's
27:51
going to be great. But we are, I don't know if
27:53
it's pay per viewer or we'll get it for free, but
27:55
if it's pay per viewer, we're paying for it. We're
27:57
all chipping in. We've got eight of us guys and
28:00
I don't know, we're all each put in 10 bucks, but
28:02
we're going to have a lot of UFC sweats at the cabin
28:05
this weekend. So I'll have a few for you
28:07
guys. I'm sure on the pod tomorrow,
28:08
but either way guys, have a great Thursday. Good
28:10
luck. I'll see you tomorrow for
28:12
episode 32 of the All Systems Go pod. Have
28:15
a great night guys and enjoy the draft. Good
28:17
luck.