Latest / Silicon & Shale Podcast / Episode 6: The Grid Wants What the Grid Wants — Power Crunches, AI Battery Breakthroughs, and Why Your Frac Fleet Can't Get Electrons
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: So they're telling me the substation can't handle it.
- 0:03SPEAKER_00: The substation that was supposed to handle it.
- 0:06SPEAKER_00: The one that was built to handle it.
- 0:08And this completion engineer is looking at me like I've got two
- 0:11heads because I'm
- 0:12SPEAKER_00: asking how long the delay is.
- 0:13SPEAKER_00: And he goes, well, Derek, that depends on the utility.
- 0:16SPEAKER_00: And I'm like, yes, son, I know it depends on the utility.
- 0:19That's why I'm asking you,
- 0:20because you're supposed to know what the utility said.
- 0:23SPEAKER_01: Wait, which operator?
- 0:24SPEAKER_01: Was this...
- 0:25SPEAKER_00: It doesn't matter which operator.
- 0:26SPEAKER_00: Could have been any of them.
- 0:28SPEAKER_00: Point is,
- 0:29SPEAKER_00: we're sitting on a pad that's ready to frack,
- 0:31SPEAKER_00: equipment staged,
- 0:32SPEAKER_00: crew on standby,
- 0:34and the whole thing grinds to a halt because there's not enough
- 0:37power coming in
- 0:37SPEAKER_00: from the grid to run the electric frack fleet.
- 0:40SPEAKER_01: Man, that substation story?
- 0:43It's exactly why the stat I saw this week has been living
- 0:45rent-free in my head.
- 0:48SPEAKER_01: U.S.
- 0:48SPEAKER_01: electricity demand was basically flat for something like a decade, right?
- 0:53SPEAKER_01: Like cheap natural gas, flat industrial demand, the whole thing.
- 0:57And then data centers happened,
- 1:01like a surger in data center construction.
- 1:04And that surge is now competing with electric frack fleets and
- 1:07EV charging and heat
- 1:08SPEAKER_01: pumps all at the same time.
- 1:09SPEAKER_01: And the grid is just, it's not ready.
- 1:12SPEAKER_00: The grid is not ready.
- 1:14And nobody in this industry wants to be the one to say it out
- 1:17loud because we are
- 1:18SPEAKER_00: the fossil fuel.
- 1:20SPEAKER_00: Guys,
- 1:21SPEAKER_00: we're the ones who are supposed to be providing the electrons,
- 1:23SPEAKER_00: and now we can't get the electrons to our own equipment.
- 1:27SPEAKER_01: It's almost poetic.
- 1:28SPEAKER_00: It's not poetic, Pac.
- 1:29SPEAKER_00: It's a standby bill.
- 1:31SPEAKER_01: Okay, fair.
- 1:32SPEAKER_01: Less poetic, more expensive.
- 1:34SPEAKER_00: A lot more expensive.
- 1:35SPEAKER_00: Chapri, show intro.
- 1:37SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Silicon and Shale, where the oil patch meets the algorithm.
- 1:42SPEAKER_00: Week of March 26, 2026.
- 1:44SPEAKER_00: I'm Derek.
- 1:45SPEAKER_01: And I'm Packer.
- 1:46And this week we are going deep on the grid crunch that nobody
- 1:50in E&P wants to talk about.
- 1:52SPEAKER_01: What AI labs are actually building for enterprise right now.
- 1:55SPEAKER_01: And I mean actually building, not vaporware.
- 1:59And we've got a collision zone idea this week that honestly
- 2:02kept me up until about
- 2:03SPEAKER_01: 2 a.m.,
- 2:04SPEAKER_01: which is just my normal schedule at this point.
- 2:07SPEAKER_00: You say that every week.
- 2:08SPEAKER_01: Because it's true every week.
- 2:10SPEAKER_01: Let's go.
- 2:11SPEAKER_01: Azirabaries?
- 2:14SPEAKER_01: E.N.P.
- 2:16SPEAKER_01: Deep Dive.
- 2:17SPEAKER_00: All right,
- 2:18so let's actually dig into this power problem because I think
- 2:20it's bigger than
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: people are admitting.
- 2:22SPEAKER_01: Way bigger.
- 2:24And it connects to something we touched on last week with the
- 2:27Middle East disruption scenarios.
- 2:30SPEAKER_01: Like,
- 2:30SPEAKER_01: when you start running $200 a barrel oil hypotheticals in Asia,
- 2:34SPEAKER_01: part of what breaks isn't just the supply chain.
- 2:37It's that every alternative energy build-out requires massive
- 2:40grid infrastructure,
- 2:41SPEAKER_01: and that infrastructure is already strained.
- 2:44SPEAKER_00: Right,
- 2:44SPEAKER_00: and what I keep coming back to is,
- 2:46SPEAKER_00: the problem isn't just the supply of electricity,
- 2:49SPEAKER_00: it's the timing of the infrastructure.
- 2:52SPEAKER_00: Data centers are going up fast,
- 2:54SPEAKER_00: like,
- 2:54SPEAKER_00: faster than anyone planned for,
- 2:57SPEAKER_00: and those things aren't small asks on the grid.
- 2:59SPEAKER_01: The energy gang had a good breakdown of this.
- 3:02The era of flat demand and relatively cheap natural gas through
- 3:05the 2010s basically
- 3:07SPEAKER_01: meant utilities had no urgency to build out.
- 3:10SPEAKER_01: Nobody was screaming for more capacity.
- 3:12SPEAKER_01: And now you've got electrification,
- 3:14SPEAKER_01: you've got data centers,
- 3:15SPEAKER_01: you've got EV adoption,
- 3:17SPEAKER_01: all landing at the same time.
- 3:18SPEAKER_00: And you've got electric frack fleets.
- 3:21SPEAKER_01: Which is the one nobody's talking about in the data center conversation.
- 3:24SPEAKER_00: Nobody outside this industry, anyway.
- 3:27Because from where I'm sitting,
- 3:28we made this big push toward EFRAC,
- 3:30and I get it.
- 3:31SPEAKER_00: Cleaner, quieter, more efficient in a lot of ways.
- 3:35But the assumption was always that we'd have grid access or
- 3:38on-site power,
- 3:40SPEAKER_00: and now that's not a guarantee.
- 3:41SPEAKER_01: How common is it?
- 3:42SPEAKER_01: The standby situation you were describing?
- 3:45SPEAKER_00: More common than the press releases suggest.
- 3:48SPEAKER_00: I'll tell you what.
- 3:49SPEAKER_00: I was talking to a friend who works completions out in the Anadarko,
- 3:53SPEAKER_00: and he said they had a job last fall where they'd planned for grid power,
- 3:56SPEAKER_00: got to the location,
- 3:58SPEAKER_00: and the utility had rescheduled the interconnect three times.
- 4:01SPEAKER_00: Three times.
- 4:02SPEAKER_00: They ended up running diesel because they couldn't wait anymore.
- 4:05SPEAKER_01: Which defeats the whole point.
- 4:07SPEAKER_00: Which defeats the whole point.
- 4:09SPEAKER_00: And you know what?
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: That standby crew time,
- 4:11SPEAKER_00: that diesel burn,
- 4:13SPEAKER_00: that's not showing up in anybody's efficiency slide deck.
- 4:16SPEAKER_00: It just gets buried in AFE overruns.
- 4:19SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 4:19So there's a data problem hiding inside an energy problem
- 4:23wearing an E&P questions hat.
- 4:25SPEAKER_00: I saw what you did there.
- 4:26SPEAKER_01: Old habits.
- 4:27SPEAKER_00: But yeah.
- 4:29SPEAKER_00: Look,
- 4:30the fundamental issue is that the grid wasn't designed for this
- 4:33concentration of
- 4:34SPEAKER_00: demand,
- 4:35and oil and gas has always kind of assumed the grid was someone
- 4:38else's problem.
- 4:39SPEAKER_00: We produce the gas,
- 4:41SPEAKER_00: we generate the power at the well site,
- 4:43SPEAKER_00: or we run diesel and the grid is for,
- 4:45SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 4:45SPEAKER_00: the cities.
- 4:46SPEAKER_01: And now SLB's out here with pressure pumping technology.
- 4:50SPM Oil & Gas is building continuous pumping systems with
- 4:54linear pressure control,
- 4:56SPEAKER_01: all of which runs on electricity.
- 4:59And the demand is spiking exactly when grid capacity is the
- 5:02most constrained it's
- 5:03SPEAKER_01: been in decades.
- 5:04And that Tyler Rice interview from SPM made a good point about
- 5:07how far the
- 5:08SPEAKER_00: technologies come on the pressure control side.
- 5:10That's genuinely impressive engineering,
- 5:13but all of it assumes you've got power.
- 5:15It's like building a really fast car and then discovering
- 5:18there's no road.
- 5:19Or the road's a mud bog,
- 5:21which speaking of...
- 5:22Is this a Courthouse Chronicles moment?
- 5:24SPEAKER_00: This is absolutely a Courthouse Chronicles moment.
- 5:27SPEAKER_00: So, Kingfisher County.
- 5:30SPEAKER_00: Couple years back,
- 5:31I'm up there running a title on a section that had changed
- 5:34hands something like six
- 5:35SPEAKER_00: times in eight years,
- 5:37SPEAKER_00: which in Kingfisher is not unusual.
- 5:40SPEAKER_00: That county's had some active trading in the western part especially.
- 5:43SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 5:44SPEAKER_00: And one of the conveyances,
- 5:46SPEAKER_00: this is maybe 2019-2020,
- 5:48SPEAKER_00: included a surface easement for a power line.
- 5:52SPEAKER_00: Not unusual.
- 5:53Utility company wanted to run a line across the corner of a
- 5:56quarter section to
- 5:57SPEAKER_00: serve a pump station.
- 5:59SPEAKER_00: Fine.
- 6:00SPEAKER_00: Routine.
- 6:01SPEAKER_00: Easement recorded.
- 6:02SPEAKER_00: Life goes on.
- 6:04SPEAKER_00: But...
- 6:04SPEAKER_00: But the pump station got electrified,
- 6:06SPEAKER_00: the whole setup got modernized,
- 6:09SPEAKER_00: and then the operator,
- 6:10SPEAKER_00: different operator by then,
- 6:12SPEAKER_00: third or fourth generation of ownership...
- 6:14The operator decided they wanted to run electric-powered
- 6:17surface equipment over a
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: much larger footprint.
- 6:20SPEAKER_00: And they went back to that same easement.
- 6:22SPEAKER_00: And the easement was written for,
- 6:24SPEAKER_00: I kid you not,
- 6:25SPEAKER_00: a single-phase distribution line not to exceed 50 kilovolt amperes.
- 6:30SPEAKER_01: Oh, no.
- 6:30SPEAKER_00: Oh, yes.
- 6:31SPEAKER_00: Because in 2019,
- 6:33nobody was thinking about running three-phase power to support
- 6:36automated well-site
- 6:37SPEAKER_00: equipment.
- 6:38SPEAKER_00: Nobody was thinking about that.
- 6:40SPEAKER_01: So the easement is useless.
- 6:41The easement covers a garden hose worth of electricity and they
- 6:44need a fire hose.
- 6:46SPEAKER_01: And now they have to, what, renegotiate the surface?
- 6:49Go back to the surface owner,
- 6:51who by now is the third generation heir to the original
- 6:53landowner.
- 6:55SPEAKER_00: Negotiate a new easement,
- 6:56SPEAKER_00: get it recorded,
- 6:57SPEAKER_00: get the utility to actually plan and build the upgraded infrastructure.
- 7:01SPEAKER_00: We're talking a year, maybe more.
- 7:04SPEAKER_01: Added to the list of things AI can't fix but could have flagged.
- 7:07Could have flagged in two seconds if someone had been running
- 7:10any kind of analysis
- 7:11on whether the existing easements were fit for purpose given
- 7:14where electrification
- 7:15SPEAKER_00: was heading.
- 7:16SPEAKER_01: Which is... Okay, that's actually a real gap.
- 7:20SPEAKER_01: Like,
- 7:20I don't think anyone's systematically reviewing surface
- 7:23agreements for adequacy
- 7:25SPEAKER_01: given the electric infrastructure build-out.
- 7:27SPEAKER_00: Nobody.
- 7:28SPEAKER_00: It's all backward-looking.
- 7:30SPEAKER_00: You're reviewing what you have,
- 7:31SPEAKER_00: not asking whether what you have is enough for what you're about to do.
- 7:35SPEAKER_01: That's the problem, though, right?
- 7:37SPEAKER_01: It requires predicting where technology's going.
- 7:40SPEAKER_01: And landmen,
- 7:41SPEAKER_01: no offense,
- 7:42aren't historically the let's model future electrification
- 7:45scenarios crowd.
- 7:46SPEAKER_00: I'm deeply offended and also completely agree.
- 7:50SPEAKER_00: Look, we're trained to document what's there, not forecast what's needed.
- 7:53SPEAKER_00: That's a different skill set.
- 7:55SPEAKER_01: Which is where this becomes interesting.
- 7:57Because if you had a system that could read your existing
- 8:00surface agreements and
- 8:01flag the ones that were written to specs that won't support
- 8:04modern electrified
- 8:04SPEAKER_01: operations...
- 8:06I'd have caught that Kingfisher easement in about 20 minutes
- 8:09instead of the three
- 8:10SPEAKER_00: days it took me to untangle it.
- 8:11SPEAKER_01: Three days?
- 8:12There was also a question about whether a road easement
- 8:15overlapped with the power
- 8:16SPEAKER_00: corridor,
- 8:17SPEAKER_00: and that led to a whole other title chain that,
- 8:20SPEAKER_00: you know what,
- 8:21SPEAKER_00: that's a different story.
- 8:22SPEAKER_01: We're going to need a whole Courthouse Chronicles spinoff at this rate.
- 8:25SPEAKER_00: The fax machine is still warm, that's all I'll say.
- 8:28SPEAKER_01: Okay, so the grid crunch is real.
- 8:31SPEAKER_01: It's affecting completions timelines.
- 8:33SPEAKER_01: It's creating surface rights issues that nobody anticipated.
- 8:37SPEAKER_01: What's the operator move right now?
- 8:39SPEAKER_01: Like, this week, what do you actually do?
- 8:41SPEAKER_00: Honestly,
- 8:42you audit your surface agreements before you finalize your
- 8:45completion design,
- 8:47SPEAKER_00: not after.
- 8:47And you get your land department talking to your completions
- 8:50team before the AFE
- 8:51SPEAKER_00: gets signed,
- 8:52SPEAKER_00: not after the equipment shows up.
- 8:54SPEAKER_01: Which sounds obvious.
- 8:56SPEAKER_00: It sounds obvious, and it happens approximately never.
- 8:58SPEAKER_01: Never.
- 8:59SPEAKER_00: Look,
- 9:00SPEAKER_00: the completions team is thinking about stages and fluid volumes,
- 9:03SPEAKER_00: and the land department is thinking about lease maintenance.
- 9:06SPEAKER_00: And those conversations happen in different rooms on different weeks.
- 9:10SPEAKER_00: And somehow nobody asks,
- 9:11SPEAKER_00: hey,
- 9:12does our surface agreement support the power requirements for
- 9:15the frack fleet we
- 9:16SPEAKER_00: just contracted?
- 9:17SPEAKER_01: And that's a coordination failure, not a technology failure.
- 9:21SPEAKER_00: It is.
- 9:22SPEAKER_00: But technology could force the coordination.
- 9:25SPEAKER_00: That's the thing.
- 9:26SPEAKER_00: If the information's connected, the question gets asked automatically.
- 9:29SPEAKER_01: We'll come back to that in the collision zone because I have thoughts.
- 9:33SPEAKER_00: You always have thoughts.
- 9:34SPEAKER_01: It's literally my job.
- 9:36SPEAKER_00: Okay, before we get there, the geopolitics piece.
- 9:40Because last week we were talking about the scenarios coming
- 9:42out of the Middle
- 9:43SPEAKER_00: East,
- 9:43SPEAKER_00: the Qatar LNG situation,
- 9:45SPEAKER_00: and I don't want to just let that hang.
- 9:47SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 9:48SPEAKER_01: And the honest answer is that the scenario analysis from crude realities,
- 9:53SPEAKER_01: the $200 oil hypothetical,
- 9:55SPEAKER_01: the prolonged Hormuz disruption,
- 9:58that stuff isn't science fiction anymore in the way it felt
- 10:01like 18 months ago.
- 10:02SPEAKER_00: It felt like a thought experiment.
- 10:04SPEAKER_00: Now it feels like a planning document.
- 10:07SPEAKER_01: which changes how operators should be thinking about their hedging,
- 10:10SPEAKER_01: their supply chains,
- 10:11SPEAKER_01: their power alternatives,
- 10:13SPEAKER_01: everything.
- 10:13And here's what I keep coming back to from the IEA forecasting
- 10:16failures we talked
- 10:17SPEAKER_00: about last week.
- 10:19SPEAKER_00: The models missed,
- 10:20SPEAKER_00: the models have been missing,
- 10:22and operators have been making capital decisions based on
- 10:25forecasts that were
- 10:26SPEAKER_00: structurally wrong.
- 10:27SPEAKER_01: Because the models didn't account for the speed of demand change.
- 10:31Data centers,
- 10:32electrification,
- 10:33all of it came faster than the IEA thought.
- 10:36And now you've got operators who locked in certain capital
- 10:39programs based on price
- 10:40SPEAKER_00: scenarios that assumed a certain demand curve,
- 10:43SPEAKER_00: and that curve's changed.
- 10:45SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's the data problem wearing a geopolitics hat.
- 10:49SPEAKER_01: The inputs were wrong, so the outputs were wrong.
- 10:52SPEAKER_00: Every time.
- 10:53SPEAKER_01: The one consistent thing about energy forecasting.
- 10:56SPEAKER_00: I've been in this business 30 years.
- 10:58SPEAKER_00: The forecast is always wrong.
- 11:00SPEAKER_00: The question is which direction and by how much.
- 11:03SPEAKER_01: Which is not nothing.
- 11:04SPEAKER_01: The direction matters a lot.
- 11:06SPEAKER_00: It matters a lot.
- 11:08Being wrong by $20 to the upside versus the downside is the
- 11:11difference between a
- 11:12SPEAKER_00: great year and a bankruptcy.
- 11:14SPEAKER_00: Firu, AI Deep Dive.
- 11:16SPEAKER_01: Okay, AI Deep Dive.
- 11:20SPEAKER_01: And I want to start with something from GTC 2026.
- 11:24Because there was stuff coming out of that conference that I
- 11:27think is genuinely
- 11:28SPEAKER_01: relevant to this industry and not just tech bro excitement.
- 11:31SPEAKER_00: NVIDIA's GTC, the Jensen Huang thing.
- 11:34SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 11:35SPEAKER_01: But specifically,
- 11:37SPEAKER_01: Carrie Briskey,
- 11:38SPEAKER_01: who's their VP of Generative AI Software for Enterprise,
- 11:41was talking about the Nemetron 3 model family and where
- 11:45Enterprise AI is actually
- 11:47SPEAKER_01: heading.
- 11:48SPEAKER_01: And the through line for me was the multi-agent piece.
- 11:51SPEAKER_01: Like, the idea that you don't have one AI assistant doing one thing.
- 11:56SPEAKER_01: You have a fleet of specialized agents that can collaborate.
- 11:59SPEAKER_00: Okay, so like a team of robot assistants.
- 12:01SPEAKER_01: Kind of.
- 12:02SPEAKER_01: But more structured than that.
- 12:04SPEAKER_01: Each agent has a specific job.
- 12:06SPEAKER_01: One might be reading and summarizing documents.
- 12:09SPEAKER_01: One might be checking against a database.
- 12:12SPEAKER_01: One might be flagging anomalies.
- 12:14SPEAKER_01: And they hand off to each other.
- 12:16SPEAKER_00: What happens when one of them gets it wrong?
- 12:18SPEAKER_01: That's the right question.
- 12:20SPEAKER_01: And the honest answer is...
- 12:23The systems are getting better at catching each other's errors,
- 12:25but it's not foolproof.
- 12:27SPEAKER_01: The human-in-the-loop question is still unresolved.
- 12:30SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 12:31SPEAKER_00: Because in a courthouse context, I don't care how smart your agent is.
- 12:35SPEAKER_00: If it misreads a grantor-grantee index entry and you miss a prior lien,
- 12:39SPEAKER_00: you've got a clout on title,
- 12:41SPEAKER_00: and the AI got it wrong is not a defense.
- 12:44SPEAKER_01: No, it really isn't.
- 12:45SPEAKER_01: And the people building these systems know that?
- 12:48SPEAKER_01: The responsible ones, anyway.
- 12:50SPEAKER_00: How do you tell the responsible ones from the ones selling snake oil?
- 12:53SPEAKER_01: Honestly?
- 12:55SPEAKER_01: Ask them what their failure modes are.
- 12:57If they can't tell you how the system breaks,
- 12:59they don't understand the system well enough.
- 13:01SPEAKER_00: That's, yeah, that's a good filter, actually.
- 13:04SPEAKER_01: The AI adoption work coming out of companies like ProArch?
- 13:08SPEAKER_01: Jim Spignardo was talking about this.
- 13:10SPEAKER_01: The gap isn't usually the technology.
- 13:13It's that organizations buy the license and then don't know
- 13:16what to do with it.
- 13:17SPEAKER_01: They skip the step where you define what success actually looks like.
- 13:21How is that different from when every operator bought that one
- 13:23land management
- 13:24SPEAKER_00: software in 2015 and then never actually configured it properly?
- 13:28SPEAKER_01: It's exactly the same.
- 13:30SPEAKER_01: Same failure mode.
- 13:32SPEAKER_01: New technology.
- 13:33SPEAKER_01: Same organizational inertia.
- 13:35SPEAKER_00: The fax machine is still warm, just in a different font.
- 13:39SPEAKER_01: But here's where it's different this time.
- 13:41SPEAKER_01: And I mean genuinely different.
- 13:43SPEAKER_01: The cost of entry has collapsed.
- 13:45SPEAKER_01: Like,
- 13:45the stuff that would have required a six-month implementation
- 13:48and a custom dev team
- 13:50SPEAKER_01: 18 months ago,
- 13:51SPEAKER_01: you can stand up in a week now.
- 13:53SPEAKER_00: Okay, but that also means the stuff that shouldn't get built gets built.
- 13:58SPEAKER_00: Because the barrier's low.
- 13:59SPEAKER_01: That's fair.
- 14:00SPEAKER_01: Speed cuts both ways.
- 14:01SPEAKER_00: I've seen it happen with LAN software.
- 14:04SPEAKER_00: Tool gets built fast,
- 14:05SPEAKER_00: gets deployed fast,
- 14:07and then someone discovers it doesn't handle Oklahoma's split
- 14:10estate rules,
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: right?
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: And suddenly you've got 300 leases with wrong decimal interests.
- 14:15SPEAKER_01: Which is a nightmare.
- 14:17SPEAKER_01: Okay,
- 14:18SPEAKER_01: so the Andre Karpathy stuff that came out of the No Priors episode,
- 14:21SPEAKER_01: this auto research project,
- 14:23SPEAKER_01: that's interesting for a slightly different reason.
- 14:26SPEAKER_00: Explain it to me like I just drove six hours from a courthouse basement.
- 14:30SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 14:31SPEAKER_01: So the basic idea is,
- 14:33SPEAKER_01: what if an AI system could design its own experiments,
- 14:36SPEAKER_01: run them,
- 14:37SPEAKER_01: learn from the results,
- 14:39SPEAKER_01: and then use those results to improve itself?
- 14:41SPEAKER_01: Without a human in the loop.
- 14:43SPEAKER_00: That sounds terrifying.
- 14:45SPEAKER_01: For general AI development, maybe.
- 14:47SPEAKER_01: For specific bounded industrial applications?
- 14:51SPEAKER_01: I think it's fascinating.
- 14:52SPEAKER_00: What's the bounded version look like?
- 14:54SPEAKER_01: Imagine,
- 14:56SPEAKER_01: and I'm staying high level here,
- 14:58imagine a system that's been trained on production data from a
- 15:01thousand wells,
- 15:02SPEAKER_01: and instead of a human engineer deciding which parameters to test next,
- 15:06SPEAKER_01: the system suggests its own experiments.
- 15:10SPEAKER_01: Try this choke setting.
- 15:11SPEAKER_01: Try this injection schedule.
- 15:13SPEAKER_01: Runs it virtually.
- 15:15SPEAKER_01: Learns.
- 15:16SPEAKER_01: Refines.
- 15:17SPEAKER_00: Production optimization.
- 15:18Production optimization on steroids without waiting for a human
- 15:22to cycle through hypotheses.
- 15:24SPEAKER_00: Okay, on the fully autonomous to fax machine scale.
- 15:28SPEAKER_01: I'd say that's a six right now.
- 15:30SPEAKER_01: The capability is getting there.
- 15:31SPEAKER_01: The trust isn't.
- 15:33SPEAKER_00: Six is optimistic.
- 15:34SPEAKER_00: I'd say five.
- 15:35SPEAKER_01: Split the difference.
- 15:36SPEAKER_01: Five and a half.
- 15:37SPEAKER_00: Done.
- 15:38SPEAKER_01: But look, the trajectory is undeniable.
- 15:41SPEAKER_01: Like, even 12 months ago, this was more theoretical.
- 15:44SPEAKER_01: Now there are actual implementations in controlled environments.
- 15:48SPEAKER_00: What I want to know is,
- 15:49SPEAKER_00: who's liable when the experiment goes wrong,
- 15:52SPEAKER_00: when the AI-designed optimization program blows out a tubing string?
- 15:56SPEAKER_01: That is the question nobody has a clean answer to yet.
- 15:59SPEAKER_00: Nobody.
- 16:00SPEAKER_00: And in oil and gas, liability lives in paper.
- 16:04SPEAKER_00: It lives in documented decision chains.
- 16:07If the AI made the call,
- 16:09you'd better have a paper trail of how the AI made the call.
- 16:12SPEAKER_01: Which is actually an argument for better AI logging, not less AI.
- 16:16SPEAKER_00: Hmm, yeah, okay, that's a fair point.
- 16:18SPEAKER_01: The augmented reality piece is interesting, too.
- 16:21SPEAKER_01: The Cognitive Spark work with AR and AI in remote environments.
- 16:25Ted Pardee was talking about using AR for training and safety
- 16:28in environments where
- 16:29SPEAKER_01: you can't easily get a senior expert on site.
- 16:32That one I actually find compelling because I've been on
- 16:35locations where the most
- 16:36experienced guy is four states away on another job and you've
- 16:39got a young hand
- 16:40SPEAKER_00: making decisions in real time.
- 16:42And if he's got an AR headset that's overlaying guidance from
- 16:45an AI that's seen
- 16:46SPEAKER_01: 10,000 similar situations.
- 16:48SPEAKER_00: That's the experienced hand being there without being there.
- 16:51SPEAKER_01: Right?
- 16:52SPEAKER_01: It's not replacing expertise.
- 16:54SPEAKER_01: It's distributing it.
- 16:56SPEAKER_00: Okay, that one I'll take.
- 16:57SPEAKER_00: That one makes sense to me.
- 16:59SPEAKER_01: Mark it.
- 17:00SPEAKER_01: Derek impressed.
- 17:01SPEAKER_00: Don't write it down.
- 17:02SPEAKER_01: I'm literally writing it down.
- 17:04SPEAKER_00: The AI writing thing,
- 17:05there was something in the Hard Fork episode about LLMs and
- 17:08creative writing that I
- 17:09SPEAKER_00: thought was interesting,
- 17:10SPEAKER_00: which is that even the best language models struggle with voice.
- 17:14SPEAKER_00: Like they can write competently, but they can't write distinctively.
- 17:17SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 17:18SPEAKER_00: Jasmine Sun's piece on this.
- 17:20SPEAKER_00: And I think that maps to something I've seen in the title opinion world.
- 17:24SPEAKER_00: AI can write a competent summary of what it found in a title chain,
- 17:28SPEAKER_00: but it can't tell you what the smell of a bad chain is.
- 17:31SPEAKER_00: It can't tell you that this particular pattern of conveyances,
- 17:34SPEAKER_00: while technically defensible on paper,
- 17:37SPEAKER_00: suggests a chain that somebody constructed to obscure something.
- 17:41SPEAKER_01: Pattern recognition from experience.
- 17:43SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 17:44That's 30 years of walking into courthouses and reading between
- 17:47the lines.
- 17:48Okay,
- 17:48but,
- 17:49and I say this with love,
- 17:51that knowledge is currently trapped in your head.
- 17:53SPEAKER_01: What if it wasn't?
- 17:56SPEAKER_00: That's, I mean, that's the question, isn't it?
- 17:59SPEAKER_01: That's the question.
- 18:00SPEAKER_00: One bad PDF scan from retirement pack.
- 18:03SPEAKER_00: One bad PDF scan.
- 18:05SPEAKER_00: Throttered the collision zone.
- 18:07SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 18:08SPEAKER_01: Collision zone.
- 18:09SPEAKER_01: I've been thinking about this all week, and I want to set it up right.
- 18:12SPEAKER_00: Let's hear it.
- 18:13SPEAKER_01: So we've got this grid power problem in E&P.
- 18:17SPEAKER_01: Operators are committing to electric frack fleets,
- 18:19SPEAKER_01: electric surface equipment,
- 18:21SPEAKER_01: modernized pumping systems,
- 18:23SPEAKER_01: all of which is real and happening and good.
- 18:26SPEAKER_01: But the surface rights infrastructure,
- 18:28SPEAKER_01: the easements,
- 18:29SPEAKER_01: the access agreements,
- 18:30the power corridor documentation is lagging behind by years in
- 18:34some cases.
- 18:36SPEAKER_00: The Kingfisher situation.
- 18:37SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 18:38SPEAKER_01: Every operator has a version of that Kingfisher situation.
- 18:41SPEAKER_01: Right now,
- 18:42sitting in a filing cabinet somewhere or buried in a land
- 18:45management system that
- 18:46SPEAKER_01: was last updated when everyone was still worried about Y2K.
- 18:50SPEAKER_00: The ones that have land management systems.
- 18:52SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 18:53SPEAKER_01: Some of them are literally still on paper.
- 18:55Or on a shared drive that one guy manages and nobody else can
- 18:58find anything in.
- 19:00SPEAKER_01: So here's the collision.
- 19:02You've got AI that can now read,
- 19:04understand,
- 19:05and analyze huge volumes of legal documents.
- 19:08And you've got this growing gap between what your surface
- 19:10agreements authorize and
- 19:12SPEAKER_01: what your modern operations require.
- 19:14SPEAKER_00: You're talking about a surface rights adequacy audit.
- 19:18SPEAKER_01: A proactive one.
- 19:19SPEAKER_01: Not, something went wrong, let's figure out why.
- 19:23SPEAKER_01: But here are the operations we're planning over the next three years.
- 19:27Let's understand where our existing surface rights will be
- 19:29insufficient before
- 19:30SPEAKER_01: we're standing on a pad with equipment we can't power.
- 19:32SPEAKER_00: Okay, I love the concept.
- 19:34SPEAKER_00: Here's where it gets hard.
- 19:36SPEAKER_01: Hit me.
- 19:37SPEAKER_00: The documents aren't uniform.
- 19:39An easement from 1987 in Kingfisher County is written in
- 19:42different language than an
- 19:43SPEAKER_00: easement from 2004 in Grady County.
- 19:46SPEAKER_00: The legal standards differ by county,
- 19:49SPEAKER_00: sometimes by township,
- 19:51SPEAKER_00: and the descriptions of what's authorized are creative,
- 19:54SPEAKER_00: let's say.
- 19:56I've seen an easement that granted the right to transport
- 19:59petroleum substances and
- 20:00SPEAKER_00: associated fluids by whatever mechanical means may be appropriate.
- 20:04Which is great for a surface landman who wants flexibility and
- 20:08terrible for anyone
- 20:09SPEAKER_00: trying to determine 50 years later whether that covers a CO2 pipeline.
- 20:13SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 20:14SPEAKER_01: But that's actually a problem we can really get our arms around now.
- 20:17SPEAKER_01: It's not just theory anymore.
- 20:20SPEAKER_01: The ability to read ambiguous legal language,
- 20:22SPEAKER_01: understand the context it was written in,
- 20:25SPEAKER_01: compare it to a standard of what's needed for a specific operation.
- 20:29SPEAKER_01: That's within reach.
- 20:30SPEAKER_00: What's the standard?
- 20:31SPEAKER_00: Who sets it?
- 20:33What's needed for a specific operation that requires knowing
- 20:37what the operation is.
- 20:38SPEAKER_01: Which is where it gets interesting.
- 20:41Because you're starting to see completions design and land
- 20:43information actually
- 20:44SPEAKER_01: living in the same systems at some operators.
- 20:47SPEAKER_00: Not many.
- 20:48SPEAKER_01: Not many.
- 20:49SPEAKER_01: But some.
- 20:51SPEAKER_01: And when they do, that's when you can actually ask the question.
- 20:54Given that we're planning a six-well pad with an electric frack
- 20:57fleet pulling X
- 20:58SPEAKER_01: megawatts,
- 20:59SPEAKER_01: do our existing surface agreements support that?
- 21:02SPEAKER_00: And the system would flag the ones that don't.
- 21:04SPEAKER_01: And rank them by risk.
- 21:07SPEAKER_01: Like, here are the five agreements that are almost certainly inadequate.
- 21:12SPEAKER_01: Here are the 20 that might be depending on how you read the language.
- 21:16SPEAKER_01: Here are the 100 that are fine.
- 21:18SPEAKER_00: That's... Okay, that's actually useful.
- 21:21SPEAKER_00: Because right now,
- 21:22SPEAKER_00: that review happens manually,
- 21:24SPEAKER_00: it happens late,
- 21:25SPEAKER_00: and it happens because something went wrong.
- 21:27SPEAKER_00: It's reactive.
- 21:28SPEAKER_01: Always reactive.
- 21:29SPEAKER_00: I've done those reviews.
- 21:31SPEAKER_00: You get a call from a completion superintendent who's upset,
- 21:34and then you spend two weeks in a records room figuring out
- 21:37whether the surface
- 21:38SPEAKER_00: owner has a legitimate complaint.
- 21:40SPEAKER_01: And two weeks is being generous.
- 21:42SPEAKER_00: Two weeks is being generous.
- 21:44And the whole time the well's either sitting or the
- 21:46relationship with the surface
- 21:47SPEAKER_00: owner is souring.
- 21:48SPEAKER_01: So flip it.
- 21:49SPEAKER_01: Run the review before the well's drilled,
- 21:52SPEAKER_01: before the pad's designed,
- 21:53SPEAKER_01: before you're committed to an equipment configuration.
- 21:56You'd need the operations plan to have enough detail early
- 21:59enough for the review to
- 22:00SPEAKER_00: be meaningful.
- 22:01SPEAKER_01: Which is the coordination problem.
- 22:03SPEAKER_01: But it's solvable if the right information is connected.
- 22:06SPEAKER_00: Here's my other concern.
- 22:08SPEAKER_00: The system flags a gap, an easement that's insufficient.
- 22:12SPEAKER_00: Who negotiates the fix?
- 22:14SPEAKER_01: That's still a human.
- 22:15SPEAKER_00: That's still me.
- 22:16SPEAKER_01: That's still Derek.
- 22:17SPEAKER_01: But Derek now has three months of lead time instead of three days.
- 22:21SPEAKER_00: That's... yeah.
- 22:23Three months is a very different conversation with a surface
- 22:26owner than three days.
- 22:27SPEAKER_01: Three days is, we need this signed by Friday or we're in trouble.
- 22:31SPEAKER_01: Three months is, we're planning operations in this area.
- 22:35SPEAKER_01: We'd like to work with you on updating our access agreements.
- 22:37SPEAKER_00: Night and day.
- 22:39The surface owner relationship is completely different when
- 22:42you're not desperate.
- 22:43SPEAKER_01: And operators who can do that consistently,
- 22:45who can approach surface owners from a position of planning
- 22:48instead of panic,
- 22:50SPEAKER_01: Those operators have better reputations,
- 22:52SPEAKER_01: better relationships,
- 22:53SPEAKER_01: better outcomes on the next negotiation.
- 22:56SPEAKER_00: I know operators where certain families will not sign anything with them,
- 23:00SPEAKER_00: won't pick up the phone.
- 23:01SPEAKER_00: Because of exactly that,
- 23:03they only hear from the operator when there's a crisis and they
- 23:05need something
- 23:06SPEAKER_00: signed fast.
- 23:07And that's a business liability that doesn't show up on
- 23:09anyone's balance sheet.
- 23:11SPEAKER_00: It shows up in lease bonus negotiations.
- 23:14SPEAKER_00: It shows up in damage settlements.
- 23:16It shows up in the next time you need surface access and the
- 23:19family's lawyer is
- 23:20SPEAKER_00: already primed to say no.
- 23:22So the ROI on doing this right isn't just avoiding the standby
- 23:25bill on the completion day.
- 23:26It's the entire surface-owner relationship over the lifetime of
- 23:30the acreage.
- 23:31SPEAKER_00: Which, on a good position, is 20-30 years of operations.
- 23:35And you've just made every one of those interactions a little
- 23:37less adversarial
- 23:38SPEAKER_01: because you came to the table prepared instead of desperate.
- 23:41SPEAKER_00: I'll tell you what,
- 23:42that's a pitch I could make to any operator because every land
- 23:45manager I know has
- 23:46SPEAKER_00: at least one surface owner they're scared to call.
- 23:49SPEAKER_01: Every single one.
- 23:51SPEAKER_00: And if the system can help you get ahead of those conversations,
- 23:54SPEAKER_00: flag the relationships that are at risk,
- 23:56SPEAKER_00: flag the agreements that need updating,
- 23:59SPEAKER_00: give you the lead time to approach it like a partner instead of a crisis,
- 24:03SPEAKER_00: that changes things.
- 24:04SPEAKER_01: Yes, exactly.
- 24:05SPEAKER_01: That's the whole game right there.
- 24:08SPEAKER_00: Add it to the list.
- 24:09SPEAKER_01: Oh, it's on the list.
- 24:11SPEAKER_01: It's like right at the top of the list.
- 24:13SPEAKER_00: The build list?
- 24:14SPEAKER_00: The build list.
- 24:15SPEAKER_00: What number are we at?
- 24:16SPEAKER_01: Honestly, I've lost count.
- 24:18SPEAKER_01: It's a scrollable list now, not a numbered list.
- 24:22SPEAKER_00: Lord.
- 24:22SPEAKER_01: And if you're listening to this thinking,
- 24:24SPEAKER_01: I actually need that built for my operation,
- 24:27SPEAKER_01: reach out.
- 24:28SPEAKER_01: SiliconNJLEggMail.com.
- 24:31SPEAKER_01: We build this stuff.
- 24:32SPEAKER_00: We do.
- 24:33SPEAKER_00: That's not hypothetical.
- 24:34SPEAKER_00: That's the actual thing we do.
- 24:37SPEAKER_00: Fraki.
- 24:38SPEAKER_00: Field report.
- 24:39SPEAKER_00: I'll write field report.
- 24:40SPEAKER_00: Zooming out.
- 24:42What does all of this actually mean for somebody working in the
- 24:45field right now?
- 24:46SPEAKER_00: Not in the future, not in the hypothetical, this week.
- 24:49SPEAKER_01: I'll start with what I think is overhyped.
- 24:52SPEAKER_01: Because I think it's important to be honest about that.
- 24:54SPEAKER_00: Please.
- 24:55SPEAKER_01: The AI is going to replace your land department narrative.
- 24:58SPEAKER_01: That's overhyped.
- 25:00SPEAKER_01: Not because AI can't do impressive things with documents.
- 25:03SPEAKER_01: It can.
- 25:05But because the gap between impressive demo and reliable
- 25:08production system you can
- 25:09SPEAKER_01: stake a title opinion on is still significant.
- 25:12SPEAKER_00: Very significant.
- 25:13SPEAKER_01: And the failure modes matter.
- 25:15If a general productivity app gives you wrong information,
- 25:18you send a bad email.
- 25:20SPEAKER_01: If a title review tool gives you wrong information,
- 25:23SPEAKER_01: you've got a defective title and potentially a lawsuit.
- 25:26SPEAKER_00: The stakes are not the same.
- 25:28SPEAKER_00: They are not the same.
- 25:29SPEAKER_01: So what's actually changing your day-to-day this year?
- 25:32SPEAKER_01: Honestly, I think it's the coordination tools.
- 25:37SPEAKER_01: The ability to connect information that's been living in silos.
- 25:40SPEAKER_01: Operations data talking to land data.
- 25:43SPEAKER_01: Completions plans talking to surface rights inventories.
- 25:47SPEAKER_00: And the thing is, that's not even AI in the fancy sense.
- 25:50SPEAKER_00: That's just connecting the spreadsheets.
- 25:53SPEAKER_01: Okay, but that's actually hard.
- 25:55SPEAKER_01: People underestimate how hard that is organizationally.
- 25:58SPEAKER_01: The technical part is the easy part.
- 26:00Getting the completions team and the LAN team to agree on a
- 26:03shared data standard is
- 26:04SPEAKER_01: like herding cats in a thunderstorm.
- 26:06SPEAKER_00: I've been in those meetings.
- 26:08SPEAKER_00: Painful.
- 26:09SPEAKER_01: But when it works,
- 26:10SPEAKER_01: when it actually works,
- 26:12SPEAKER_01: that's where you start to get the proactive stuff we were talking about.
- 26:15The,
- 26:16here's what we're planning,
- 26:17does our surface position support it question.
- 26:20SPEAKER_00: The field observation I'll share,
- 26:22SPEAKER_00: and this is something I've been seeing more of in the last six months,
- 26:25is operators starting to ask their land departments
- 26:27forward-looking questions.
- 26:30SPEAKER_00: Not just clear me to drill this location,
- 26:32but what do we need to do in the next six months to be ready to
- 26:35operate on this
- 26:36SPEAKER_00: acreage the way we want to operate?
- 26:38SPEAKER_01: That's a different posture.
- 26:40SPEAKER_00: It's a completely different posture,
- 26:42and it requires the land department to actually understand the
- 26:45operations plan,
- 26:47which historically they didn't have visibility into until it
- 26:50was too late to be
- 26:50SPEAKER_00: useful.
- 26:51SPEAKER_01: Which goes back to the coordination problem.
- 26:53The land team needs to be in the room when the operations plan
- 26:57is being made,
- 26:57not after.
- 26:59SPEAKER_00: And increasingly, the good operators are doing that.
- 27:02SPEAKER_00: The ones who are figuring this out,
- 27:04SPEAKER_00: they've got land people in early-stage planning conversations.
- 27:08SPEAKER_00: They're not a back-office function.
- 27:09SPEAKER_00: They're a front-end input.
- 27:11SPEAKER_01: That's genuinely a shift.
- 27:13SPEAKER_01: That would have been unusual five years ago.
- 27:15SPEAKER_00: Very unusual.
- 27:16SPEAKER_00: You were lucky if the land manager got the AFE before the rig showed up.
- 27:20SPEAKER_01: Okay, concrete takeaway for this week.
- 27:24SPEAKER_01: If you're an operator, look at your next three completions.
- 27:27SPEAKER_01: Pull the surface agreements for those locations.
- 27:30Ask whether the power access described in those agreements is
- 27:33adequate for the
- 27:34SPEAKER_01: equipment you're actually planning to run.
- 27:36And if you can't answer that question in an afternoon,
- 27:39you've got a data problem.
- 27:41SPEAKER_01: A data problem wearing an energy questions hat.
- 27:43SPEAKER_00: There it is.
- 27:44And if any of this applies to your operation and you want to
- 27:47talk it through...
- 27:48SPEAKER_01: silicone and shaleeggmail.com.
- 27:52SPEAKER_01: We're talking to operators every week.
- 27:56SPEAKER_00: You know what I keep coming back to from this whole conversation?
- 28:00SPEAKER_01: The grid thing.
- 28:01SPEAKER_00: The grid thing.
- 28:03We spent 20 years as an industry telling the world that oil and
- 28:06gas provides the
- 28:07SPEAKER_00: energy,
- 28:08and now our own equipment can't get enough energy from the grid
- 28:11to run properly.
- 28:13SPEAKER_00: That's a story I did not see coming.
- 28:15SPEAKER_01: Honestly, neither did the IEA.
- 28:17SPEAKER_00: Nobody did.
- 28:18SPEAKER_00: I mean, to be fair... Nobody who mattered did.
- 28:21SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 28:22SPEAKER_01: Fair.
- 28:22SPEAKER_01: And the thing is, the solution isn't go back to Diesel.
- 28:28SPEAKER_01: The solution is getting ahead of it.
- 28:31SPEAKER_01: Planning for it.
- 28:32SPEAKER_01: Which is kind of the whole theme of this episode.
- 28:35SPEAKER_00: Planning for it.
- 28:36With the right information connected in the right way early
- 28:39enough to actually do
- 28:40SPEAKER_00: something about it.
- 28:42Which is either really boring or really profound,
- 28:44depending on how you look at it.
- 28:46SPEAKER_00: Or both, which is basically this whole show.
- 28:48SPEAKER_01: Oh,
- 28:49SPEAKER_01: and hey,
- 28:50SPEAKER_01: if your company sells to operators,
- 28:52SPEAKER_01: landmen,
- 28:53or anyone in the energy space and you want to get in front of
- 28:55the people who
- 28:56SPEAKER_01: actually make buying decisions,
- 28:58SPEAKER_01: we're taking sponsors.
- 29:00SPEAKER_01: Silicone and SheaLightIgmail.com.
- 29:04We'll use your product before we talk about it,
- 29:06which is more than most podcasts will say.
- 29:08SPEAKER_00: That's actually true.
- 29:09SPEAKER_00: We will.
- 29:10SPEAKER_00: I will personally put it through a courthouse test.
- 29:13If it survives Derek in a courthouse basement with no cell
- 29:16signal,
- 29:17it survives anything.
- 29:18SPEAKER_00: That's the certification program.
- 29:20SPEAKER_01: I'm building the certification criteria.
- 29:22SPEAKER_01: It's going on the list.
- 29:24SPEAKER_01: Midnight project number.
- 29:26SPEAKER_01: Honestly, I don't know what number we're on.
- 29:28SPEAKER_00: You've lost count.
- 29:29SPEAKER_01: I've definitely lost count.
- 29:31SPEAKER_01: All right, I've got something I need to go finish before... Go.
- 29:35SPEAKER_01: Before somebody wakes up and notices I haven't... Go, Pac.
- 29:38SPEAKER_00: We'll see everybody next week.
- 29:40SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, go.