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Shane Solly: Harbour Asset Management spokesperson on the market response to the US strikes on Iran · Best of Business

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from news Talk zed Be
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  Speaker 2: Shane Solly Harbor Asset Managements with I Say Shane, Hello Heather. So,
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  Speaker 2: how have the capital markets reacted to the bombing.
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  Speaker 3: Well, pretty muted reaction really the to the weekends events.
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  Speaker 3: We've actually seen global shear market index futures. This is
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  Speaker 3: where markets think about what may happen in the future.
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  Speaker 3: When markets opened up in the Northern Hemisphere, actually they
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  Speaker 3: gripped and then their rebounder. So the UIs shear market
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  Speaker 3: market's telling us loaning me down point two percent, so
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  Speaker 3: pretty cautious response. Specially saw a lot of the Middle
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  Speaker 3: Eastern shear markets up over Sunday. US dollars pretty flat,
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  Speaker 3: US bond's pretty flat. Oil spiked up five percent today
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  Speaker 3: and then ended pretty much not up very much at all,
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  Speaker 3: and they're locally. We've seen our dollar down a little
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  Speaker 3: bit against the US sor at fifty nine to twenty
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  Speaker 3: ten year New Zeale gum bond rape steady at four
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  Speaker 3: point six percent, New Zealand share market down just zero
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  Speaker 3: point three percent, and the other OSSI she mark got
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  Speaker 3: down zero point four percent, so pretty resilient.
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  Speaker 2: Really, what do you think the market's going to do now?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a tough one. We need to be pretty
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  Speaker 3: careful about drawing too many conclusions about what happened in
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  Speaker 3: the weekends. We're going to see markets remaining chopping, and
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  Speaker 3: it depends a bit on whether these attacks actually stimulate
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  Speaker 3: a widening war, particularly this disruptive retaliation. So the conflict
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  Speaker 3: is actually quite contained, like Ukraine and to some degree
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  Speaker 3: like we saw in the Iraq War in two thousand
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  Speaker 3: and three. The key thing here here that is the
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  Speaker 3: Straits of all means getting closed by the Iranians. They've
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  Speaker 3: talked about a lot since nineteen seventy nine when the
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  Speaker 3: Islamic Republic came into voice. They've never done it. There's
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  Speaker 3: a bit of speculation out there that if they closed
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  Speaker 3: the straits down or cut even back to fifty percent
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  Speaker 3: capacity for a week or two, we'd see Brent will
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  Speaker 3: potentially spike up about one hundred dollars years a barrel.
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  Speaker 3: That compares with sort of mid seventies at the moment.
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  Speaker 3: And then there's an expectation that OPEC would actually open
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  Speaker 3: up the taps. There's plenty of capacity there. So look,
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  Speaker 3: I think you know, markets do tend to recover from
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  Speaker 3: these events unless there's a clear escalation. We should expect
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  Speaker 3: markets to think this is probably the worst case, and
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  Speaker 3: maybe we have this higher all price, not too much higher,
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  Speaker 3: but a little bit higher and a bit of disruption,
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  Speaker 3: but really the market keeps going through.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Shane, listen, thanks for talking us through it. Appreciate
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  Speaker 2: it as always. Talked to you next week, Shane Soley,
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  Speaker 2: Harbor Asset Management.
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