Latest / Construcción Plural - Radio Trend Topic / Construcción Plural - Programa 1128
Transcript
- 0:01Plural construction, the renowned journalistic program of political analysis and current in its twentieth
- 0:07season, with the leadership of Fernando Mauri and a team of prestigious analysts listen
- 0:15to it on radio train topic. For example, you know how much a
- 0:20kilo of meat is worth. Today I have the shopping. I don'
- 0:24t know everything. You know how much they take a minimum ticket. You
- 0:28don' t know how much minimum retirement is. No, and you know,
- 0:35I' m not telling you to see. You don' t know
- 0:37because you' re in the big lines or because you' re not,
- 0:41because I look at the numbers added. Yeah, then like the weird thing
- 0:44about numbers of course. I, then look in aggregate terms, so I
- 0:47don' t look at the particular small numbers, that is, because that
- 0:53' s already where having the sensitivity of people also friends, but good afternoons
- 1:00for aggregate numbers and how they walk here We are in prural construction, closing
- 1:03the week. Finally we were not yesterday for an operational change and so we
- 1:07still started earlier an exceptional program. We' re soloists and a half-
- 1:11long. I' ve already invited us to greet our correspondents in North America.
- 1:15After me talking, interviewing María Castiliones, directors of six economic advisers and
- 1:19finally, with the great Uaime around four o' clock in the afternoon,
- 1:25Don Juan has returned. They tell me it' s good. It was
- 1:29by your side an important journey motivated by Rivery, some historic feat. So
- 1:34good. They say River invited him to meet. I' m not going
- 1:38to abound because I don' t get into anyone' s privacy that'
- 1:40s good. It is a pleasure, after the passage of Mr Soraice,
- 1:42to have him again to friend Juan this fan acerry c to Lorenzo Go the
- 1:47jokes that I make Jo River, to have him there again in the technical
- 1:51operation and the important hand that gives us to change the name has, because
- 1:55there is the shirt similar to that of San Lorenzo. It' s the
- 1:56boat, not that of San Lorenzo and the ambient bar. This is very
- 2:00good for having it. I have Gustavo Frari Iwalfui on a line, I
- 2:02think, while I tell them that the dollar is still going down. The
- 2:05Blue thousand already under the barrier of the thousand is nine hundred ninety- three
- 2:09and counted with like is in one thousand fifty- five. Title at this
- 2:14hour the three of the Tari Infobae, which always our reference in general to
- 2:17put us in cars of the news of the average. Late began the meeting
- 2:21at Casa Rosada of pose and Francos with the Governors together for the change.
- 2:25What could be the impact on everyday life of the shift in time to what
- 2:29Europe does twice a year? He just did last weekend and then he'
- 2:32ll be back in October and in Argentina. This was set aside and in
- 2:36the possibility that it will happen again, the President will travel this afternoon Ushuaia
- 2:40to meet Laura Richard Son, head of the Southern Command. There are tensions,
- 2:46geopolitics Russia, China, the base in neu China, in Neucée,
- 2:49etcetera, etcetera. Increased gas, how much will each user pay for the
- 2:53bill after the new one goes, after the explosive alsa that comes in the
- 2:58super adjustment in terms of gas, which is everyday today. The Government sent
- 3:01out a project to punish the doutrination in schools. The FM supported the change
- 3:06in the retirement formula and called on the government to negotiate reforms. And here
- 3:12I came with the evening titles. Don Gustavo Farrari Bolfson, my friend.
- 3:15Good afternoon, hello. Thank you, Fernando, very good afternoon. I
- 3:23' m not having breakfast, but I' m listening to you all that
- 3:29news and deed that you commented on and the question is I remember the words
- 3:37of former candidates Sergio Masa, who said that dollar was up to 1,
- 3:39500 at this time of year. It doesn' t seem that way.
- 3:44So, my second question is who was right? I don' t think
- 3:51I' ve also seen her on very busy social networks, Doña Malena,
- 3:55a bit of a voice in her husband' s frustration or marriage. But
- 4:00the question that I am facing these scenarios is whether really the criticism, which
- 4:10is very valid, is still to an unknown model or different or really to
- 4:17measures that are beyond the adjustments that were also warned beforehand. If you'
- 4:25re going to make such a thing as, but it represents that new unknown
- 4:32model. No, I mean, the President said they' re gonna be
- 4:38really strong months. The months are really being very hard for many sectors,
- 4:43but at the same time, I believe that, after many years, there
- 4:49is still a certain model of hope and credibility to what you are saying.
- 4:57It' s a honeymoon that I don' t know how long it'
- 5:05s going to last, but it' s obviously on its way. In
- 5:08other words, nothing that was not announced is being done, and it seems
- 5:12that the people or the electoral support they had, are accompanying that until it
- 5:17lasts. I don' t know, but today, the numbers, the
- 5:23moments, the adjustments, the same parity, the hope of reaching a box
- 5:31figure to lift the trap, etcetera. All this follows in his footsteps and
- 5:40I believe that what is at present the Chief of Staff with the Minister of
- 5:43the Interior chatting, with the Governors, is a dialogue on two different models
- 5:51that they have not understood either to apply in their respective provinces. Beyond its
- 5:58ideological concept, if the moon and it lasts, we do not agree.
- 6:09I think serious analysts are going to shut it down. A little while with
- 6:12Way has also told me a friend like a Carlos Fara. The thing is
- 6:15a little bit my little girl. There is a minor drip and perhaps in
- 6:18the middle of this adjustment is very minor. But some points to me but
- 6:21it is true that it has the support of half of society, not of
- 6:25the sixties, as some exaggerate, is undoubtedly a handicap. One of his
- 6:29advantages with the dystopian appearance of him as emerging on the political stage is that
- 6:33there is no opposition or a divided position, crawling as to where he goes
- 6:40if I secreted it and an announcement of a forthcoming strike that is so discredited
- 6:44with one of the great visible faces as that of the irreferential Pablo Moyano.
- 6:49It represents part of the opposition. Well, obviously, that too, in
- 6:54a sense, was to run Miley not exactly this one. Besides, I
- 7:00don' t know if I don' t want to take them as a
- 7:09claim, but without the institutional recognition that they are. He is giving to
- 7:11certain sectors that had been quite marginalized. In this case, the armed forces
- 7:18and we always returned to this same situation had their time, a very cruel
- 7:28time, very unfortunate. But a country has to deal with armed forces.
- 7:34Perhaps after forty years of it he proposed the rapprochement of society with force.
- 7:42Hey, you understand it' s been 50 years. It' s just
- 7:46that there are other officers acting. I say it is so necessary to talk
- 7:49today about reconciliation, when it comes. Decades have passed, generations have passed,
- 7:54the armed forces have fully integrated into democracy. Let' s say you
- 7:59' re a yary to remove that. Or there is a denial, in
- 8:01part, a denial of what you can create or take Malvinas as gesta when
- 8:05a drunken general, like a good tarb, was beaten. The point is
- 8:11that this sort of contradiction and demand, and, as you say after fifty
- 8:20years, is obviously necessary on both sides. I believe that neither side made
- 8:26its critical art and continued living from the nostalgia of having been and the pain
- 8:31of no longer being as tango says, so, for certain sectors they were
- 8:37also called those on the other side of the sidewalk. I do not want
- 8:45to describe his ideologically good, who also had their responsibility in such strong disagreements
- 8:52that the Argentine policy had for them continued to use it as a flag and
- 9:00that flag was still stuck in the heart of the army of the armed forces
- 9:07as an institution. Not then this one, if you tell me, is
- 9:13necessary a claim after fifty years. I wouldn' t tell you the institution
- 9:20at the time is anything either. Those statements in his time as General Balsa,
- 9:26he never had mea culpa. They didn' t have it either.
- 9:31Let' s say Montone Soler and all. On the contrary. We are
- 9:37the worst thing that we are paying tributes or reliving even literary tributes to those
- 9:46disagreements. Not because they want to leave alive a story that, as you
- 9:52say, for a person today of fifty years or forty, is part of
- 10:00a nostalgia, to see the fact that now comes out the music book that
- 10:05I really want to read with some passion, is part of saying to see
- 10:11who remembers you of Father Mejicas, some nostalgic and of seventy- so many
- 10:18years or of eighty years not, that is to say you ask a boy,
- 10:22Father Mujica and that I will say no idea how neither was lost,
- 10:30nor can it be film Nish mccanna to the bass. All those were not
- 10:33heroes or villains of their time, but they need to write their story today
- 10:39so that there will be a document that remembers it. We are talking about
- 10:43the book of colleague ferio, we do not reato clarify so exactly and then,
- 10:48on the side of the armed forces, well, there is also the
- 10:52figure of viguela, of viola, as you say, of a drunk,
- 10:54like Gal Tena. This decision was made by a project that, curiously,
- 11:01as well as the extremes come together, designed as it is verified in the
- 11:07books at the time Vandercoits, a project designed in the isma by quanteros and
- 11:13sold to Rear Admiral Anaya, who at that time was the head of the
- 11:18armed forces of the navy. So, this one, it was a waterer.
- 11:26The project, the Falklands invasion project, is verified. It was a
- 11:31project designed by quanteros of vindication aha ok ok then that was sold so to
- 11:41speak, convinced yes, within that macabre relationship that leftist groups had, let
- 11:46' s say with certain sectors of the armed forces, specifically the navy.
- 11:52So, to see also today who remembers gall and we have let' s
- 12:01say we cry or live the memory. Let' s say of many boys
- 12:07who sent them to fight for a national cause that, obviously, is still
- 12:13our flag, but it was a very sad moment. So, I think
- 12:18that at some point, in this sort of attitude, perhaps of the president
- 12:26of my law, to claim certain attitudes, certain moments, that is also
- 12:33to say to see we start from scratch and we see to him the value
- 12:39that each of the inscriptions of the homeland have to have, because we talked
- 12:45about it about two or three programs ago I don' t remember today we
- 12:52have an institution that, in case we really would need it, they don
- 12:58' t have even five hours to face anyone, let alone tell an army
- 13:07in hiding how subversion, subversion, narco its version can be. You don
- 13:11' t think that, Luis, the armed forces want to play a maximum
- 13:15role, an important role in the struggle, something that resists in the profa
- 13:18force more and I have exhibited this is Villaruel village, a good role more
- 13:24important. They' ll propose to have the is that they look to see.
- 13:26The problem isn' t whether or not I should. I would say
- 13:31constitutionally not what happens that the case is and I know it very well from
- 13:37the experience of Mexico. Theoretically, no, but well, you don'
- 13:43t have security forces prepared to deal with that scourge either. Let' s
- 13:48say what the nufcll traffic means and you have today the groups of the carters
- 13:56with weapons more sophisticated than the armed forces themselves. Then you can' t
- 14:03send what we used to call the gray fox, you remember, he was
- 14:07the guard on the corner. All he had was the wooden stick or the
- 14:11whistle. By fighting all that kind of armed shock force to the teeth and
- 14:20with equipment, let' s say first generation, then the issue is beyond.
- 14:30Whether you' re prepared or not, it' s the experience that,
- 14:37according to the army' s argument, is to see us go into
- 14:43the fight against subversion with a decree of a constitutional government and at the moment
- 14:54we say they had to defend us. I' m going to say a
- 14:56very place term. They opened up from shrimp, no, and they never
- 15:03backed us. I think what happens is that there are the crimes, the
- 15:05proven ones, the milestones, He is humanity that I said they committed.
- 15:09Well, okay, bad at that, well, but it' s okay
- 15:11what I' m going to is next, as far as it goes.
- 15:13I get into it with popular support and then with a popular backing today that
- 15:22later, because, obviously, in a war there that' s what plants
- 15:24Villaruel, that' s what completes villains, and I' m living it.
- 15:28But in this country, I mean, the excesses and the army,
- 15:33and it has had two or three, curiously confrontations with the President when they
- 15:39came out to have those who call here the Chapito the son of CHAPO and
- 15:45at twenty four in a military operation, and at twenty- four hours the
- 15:48Government released him then, as they told the President to see not to do
- 15:54papers or we have the support or we do not have the support then.
- 16:03That' s the problem. If you are fulfilling, you know very well,
- 16:07or military. I do my orders, I mean, I don'
- 16:12t think, I do my orders, well, but if I even do
- 16:18you how far am I going to get my back? But at the same
- 16:21time, as far as I' m going to have not only the backup,
- 16:29but let' s say the park, not the weapons, the ammunition,
- 16:34etcetera, to face all that. And we don' t have it
- 16:37there. And we' re there watching these two planes from Denmark for the
- 16:42air force that are from the United States, and so on. Or to
- 16:45see what is being negotiated with Mrs East who is coming today from command south
- 16:52here. It' s a good control problem. America' s great fear
- 16:56of fear today is the big issue of the day for them, it'
- 17:02s the whole issue. Let' s say of the heavy drugs that are
- 17:07entering the United States from kitchens in Latin America rim gone, we had it
- 17:12on our border today with Bolivia, which are already in let' s say
- 17:18in Cordoba, the famous This Ecuadorian lady that they caught. And, on
- 17:22the other hand, the issue of migrants. We do not have Argentine migrants
- 17:27in large caravans, but from the South, from Chile, from Brazil,
- 17:33there are very strong migratory flows. So, really, in this strategic alliance
- 17:41that the President intends to make with the United States, how all that is
- 17:47recomposed. I don' t know what you know. I wanted to talk
- 17:52to you about that bet. In foreign policy it does not bring us an
- 17:56almost carnal relationship of mena, an alignment too much in the Western world,
- 18:02not only with the United States, but also with Israel, country. I
- 18:04think that in general, let' s say this, one can share supports
- 18:11and so on, but it' s hard to support the murder. I
- 18:14say this by my word, not yours the killer the President has, as
- 18:17is neteniajo the incursion he has made after the terrorist acts of Jamas in Gasa
- 18:22and so on. I don' t say well, we' re not
- 18:26nearly in carnal relationships, as we talk so much about menem and too much
- 18:30alignment beyond the western, and that should be our thing. Let' s
- 18:33say with the United States we' re playing that card too hard. You
- 18:34don' t think so. I think it' s very possible and I
- 18:40agree with you. Now I' m also thinking about Millake' s President
- 18:45' s head, who said so from day one. I mean, on
- 18:49the one hand I have a political relationship and on the other hand, within
- 18:53my liberalism, I leave open the commercial relationship, for example, in the
- 18:59case of China, of other markets that perhaps ideologically are not so close to
- 19:07their thinking. He says I don' t get involved as a political alliance,
- 19:11but I leave the door to continue trade relations and I don' t
- 19:18know if Group x or G wants to continue trading with China, and that
- 19:23brings us well- being, brings us money and all welcome. That'
- 19:26s where he marks the separation and perhaps identifies his liberal thinking. No,
- 19:32I' m going for this sidewalk now within the liberal idea. If you
- 19:37want to do business or see the guy in the corner, with the Chinese
- 19:44from the corner to zero, I' m not going to slow you down.
- 19:49It' s all of a sudden that I think that where it'
- 19:56s getting more complicated is some strategic alignments that the past administration had made,
- 20:04which we say for the Chinese must be fulfilled. No, then maybe that
- 20:07' s the thing. We' ll have to disarm, perhaps with a
- 20:11lot of diplomatic intelligence. There in Mexico, this saying I don' t
- 20:21know is news. Let' s just say it' s already so naturalized.
- 20:22He sent me to you I heard it from you. Then I had
- 20:25a little impact. Here' s already a murder in the middle of a
- 20:27campaign, not someone' s looking at you. No numbers. I'
- 20:33m gonna use words. Let' s say from the press that they have
- 20:41concentrated, which is for the first time in history, as though it is
- 20:45the most important election for the number of charges that are being chosen from all
- 20:52of Mexico' s history. In addition, many call them the narco-
- 20:55election, because of the very strong presence of organized crime or drug trafficking in
- 21:00the influence of the electoral processes, indeed, of the Official Party on Thursday.
- 21:11This type of thing is presented more in the mayors' offices in the
- 21:18municipalities, because they are the places where they have the greatest territorial and business
- 21:22control. We' ve been talking about it for so many years. With
- 21:29you practically the agreements are I need control of treasury, public works, police
- 21:37and when I say I' m talking to you about the cartel leader'
- 21:42s negotiation with any of the candidates, and there are pacts that are fulfilled
- 21:48and there are pacts that cannot be fulfilled, and there are the consequences.
- 21:52Evidently, that kind of non- gunned arms politics has not worked. I
- 21:59think it' s gonna feel. It' s going to be a very,
- 22:07very, very dangerous choice, but with a lot of virulence, not
- 22:12verbal, but this kind of group and which I think is part of the
- 22:21strategy that we could be electoral, of the political structures, that is,
- 22:27in the face of what happened contrary to what happened in our country. The
- 22:30fewer people go out to vote, the more we' re going to handle
- 22:38the apparatuses and the political spaces and points. Not that he has the greatest
- 22:41capacity to mobilize political structures is going to be the winner of each district.
- 22:49There is no will for massive change, as was the Milay phenomenon, for
- 22:53example, that people leave everywhere to vote. It' s not sober bligatory
- 23:00here in Mexico. And what percentage that when voting half a standard fifty percent,
- 23:04because about, more or less you look at a place example very close
- 23:07to me, like Plaza del Carmen, you have an average twenty- three
- 23:12percent of standard. Because while you have people, how could we be registered
- 23:22in that district? The figure here, the identity card is a form.
- 23:30It' s the only credential you have for everything. So the fact if
- 23:34you come to a tourist city to look for a job, you have to
- 23:41have an address in that place, then you change your address, but that
- 23:45doesn' t make you feel that it creates an electoral obligation. Not then
- 23:52do you suddenly have a pattern I' m going to put three hundred thousand
- 23:56people and they vote for you only twenty thousand because the others, let'
- 24:03s say, have so many records, but their minds are nomads of that
- 24:08city. No, but there' s a little involvement. Eye wasn'
- 24:15t like that in López Obrador' s election, because we have a guy
- 24:22who really was. That' s why I say every time they' re
- 24:26more like Millay, he didn' t drag. Let' s say a
- 24:30political message situation, a hope, whatever you want to call it, and
- 24:37that choice had a high level of participation when I say you speak sixty percent.
- 24:41Not to say, but you think that none, that is, if
- 24:48there were here, will go to the other no President of the Republic would
- 24:52have arrived in the first round peña grandchild won with thirty- two percent of
- 24:56ballots and so on the previous one and Lopez and Andrés Manuel I think he
- 25:07won with forty- four. And well I keep this sentence that is already
- 25:15circulating in networks that we just published in Mexico there is no will to change,
- 25:21as happened in Argentinas. What you come to confirm is c between two
- 25:23women is going to win. Morena' s official candidate in the June election,
- 25:27not June two, June two will win. I don' t mean
- 25:34to raze, but it' s there. It' s a sung triumph.
- 25:36It' s not a triumph sung today. Maybe it' s not
- 25:42them calling her message. Let' s build the second floor of the transformation.
- 25:47It is a very capital message because when López Obrador was mayor of the
- 25:52city and he generated a second floor on the main access roads of Mexico City,
- 25:59as I tell you today that access north to Pilar or access east to
- 26:03Mar de Plata was made a second high- speed floor. Yeah, not
- 26:08against the wind and tide the guy did, he made a poll, he
- 26:12said he accepted it, and there' s the slogan for this campaign.
- 26:17Let' s deconstruct the second floor of the fourth transformation. The only thing
- 26:22I leave in doubt is that leaders have no heirs. Yes, Claudia,
- 26:30the next presentation will perhaps be the president of the political space, but it
- 26:37is not López Obrador. If we have talked about it and it will be
- 26:42a complicated management, not exactly, and we have also talked about it,
- 26:49what alignment of international policy it adopts, including with Argentina. This more charismatic
- 26:53López Obrador leadership has already come out. If there is a more mature r
- 27:00with Argentina, perhaps no more or less accurate person. Okay. The chancellor
- 27:08of the Lycia bars in which she is an economist to meet, was at
- 27:14the forefront in many years. It was destroyed last week by asking for the
- 27:21same petro scheme of the diplomatic exculpation and Andrés Manuel himself stopped it. I
- 27:29mean, they' re so similar, I think even in their reactions they
- 27:37' re the same. I mean, Trump was the enemy, but it
- 27:44was the best relationship that Andrés Manuel had with Trump and he doesn' t
- 27:49have it with baden not clear, yeah, yeah, well, so let
- 27:56' s hope that good. Not that relations between countries are bad at all,
- 28:00but that good can be consolidated further. Inside there are very strong commercial
- 28:03relations. You haven' t written two. Yeah. Yeah, yeah,
- 28:07yeah. And the one to see and the influence or migration of Argentines is
- 28:15increasing more and more, is no more. At this moment I am here
- 28:22in a cafeteria and you would say two of the people who are serving this
- 28:29are this countryman Méstoria or since at what level already to reflect at what level
- 28:34of inflation we are in Mexico, for example, today poverty indicator. Well,
- 28:40poverty rates in a historically poor country must be about thirty- five percent,
- 28:48but in low- lying alsa they stagnate that no, not low,
- 28:52no, not low part in part, let' s say the manueles angre
- 28:55distribunista policy is in va. It wasn' t low. Poverty has gone
- 29:02down. No. As soon as the dollar has gone down in front of
- 29:07what the dollar said, I think it is in its lowest historical floor,
- 29:12at least in the last fifteen years that I have lived in this country.
- 29:18A little plus four and five not as much as five percent, thirty-
- 29:22four years no A A no no no. Yes, yes, yes,
- 29:26you don' t see On some topics of the popular basic basket, no
- 29:32and you realize, that is, on certain basic products that you buy.
- 29:37Perhaps in the case of one living alone, there are things that do not
- 29:41pay attention. But in things that you, who are recurring, you already
- 29:45see them a little bit of one or two pesos up, no, although
- 29:52you also see it down, it' s not that they went up and
- 29:56no longer lower them. There are some things that you really suddenly don'
- 30:02t see going down well, very well. Well Angus we see on Wednesday
- 30:07that comes the same da of the sixteen thirty- five of Argentina, always
- 30:11two hours less in Mexico, that you are fourteen thirty- five until thirty
- 30:15hour. We have to see if the President changes our schedule, our President,
- 30:18well, not bread for the other. Let' s not wait,
- 30:22either. Not good lotus, either. Well, we' ll see the
- 30:26pierpo that comes at sixteen thirty. Buenos Aires, Thank you, hug,
- 30:27thanks for the space. See you later, please, Gustavo Ferreri and Volve
- 30:30are our co- responsible there in North America. Speaking of Argentina, we
- 30:34started and then continued with Mexico on June 2. He reminded me well in
- 30:37the elections, where it is sung, he reconfirms us. So many analysts
- 30:41of her who know the country of the North a lot that the next president
- 30:45will be Claudia. I didn' t get the last name James band,
- 30:49which is the one after the charisma of Amblo, will be his successor.
- 30:52But as Gustavo rightly said, it is clear in Mexico, more than many
- 30:56countries that the leaderships do not have well. Some of Gustavo' s considerations
- 31:03are already on social networks. As I told you on Twitter, we already
- 31:10have this issue that there is no will for change in Mexico and what spoke
- 31:12at first not Miguel' s moon with miles and hard. We don'
- 31:17t know how long, but for now it' s still in the midst
- 31:18of adjustments and hopes. It was said by our columnist, our correspondent,
- 31:22Gustavo Farrari, Golfo Son and it is already on the social network. I
- 31:26like to keep saying pay, jasperito and Twitter and not xás trends in Argentina,
- 31:30at least the particular issues I follow. Liliana Franco, the journalist,
- 31:37because she spoke about education. Yesterday public education, education pays more in the
- 31:41nation and they are hit by macri increases to five hundred percent. We'
- 31:45re talking about gas, probably medical school, the same thing I just referred
- 31:48to about the liena. Franco Adorni, the presidential star also made that they
- 31:52will try to avoid indoctrination, will band together an educational reform. I think
- 31:56we mentioned something about infoba and at the beginning of the program capo de ser.
- 32:00Toto Rassell is the companion driver of this weakened and Mercedes in the formula
- 32:05one this with middle Lewie Hamilton, Japanese teachers good the great prize of Japan,
- 32:15which is what comes from tonight, the first training at twenty- three
- 32:15in thirty, Argentina and so on. That' s where it' s
- 32:21happening today. Well, I' m leaving now with my friend Juan to
- 32:24see how we' re going. We' ll pause in a little while,
- 32:28we' ll be contacting Maria Castellón when she goes out to give college
- 32:34classes and at four o' clock in the afternoon about that time. More
- 32:36less, we will be closing the program in dialogue with our collomnist, political
- 32:40consultant Hugo Aimes well to the pause with Juan and already we return field day
- 33:06of the Institute of Promotion of the Argentina Vaccination Meat in currents Meat of Nega
- 33:12to the world Thursday 11 April. Establishment palmite Provincial Route eighty- five to
- 33:15thirty- two kilometers of crossing with Provincial Route forty Mercedes free entrance, limited
- 33:22quotas. Asociación Brasfort Argentina collaborates. The inta reports in inscription in triple p
- 33:29com or at eleven, forty- four, fifteen, eight, one,
- 33:34eight nine. We remind you that you can find us on social networks,
- 33:42on our website, where we extend our journalistic work. We found ourselves on
- 33:45Twitter, under Nick Arroba, on Instagram. Fer M two thousand twenty-
- 33:51two. Fermen de Fermaury two thousand twenty- two and as always where we
- 33:55upload audios of the program analysis of columnists specialists our huas s s s s
- 36:01s o s n free of this experience so yes, very well, very
- 36:42well. Fifteen and thirty- six, very nice, twenty- two degrees
- 36:45now here in Federal Capital, and they come like this in the next few
- 36:49days going down a little bit towards Monday or Tuesday. That maximum of twenty,
- 36:51twenty- one minimum cooler. No more dengue. The papillos that the
- 36:53government is making of the matter are not the vaccinations or vaccinations that serve us
- 36:59the most to prepare them in the north of the country. But nothing.
- 37:02The Minister of Education, the Minito de Salud, if he is responsible for
- 37:06health, to be tonight apparently the subject and said it or the boatman Adorney,
- 37:09but the government making water and there he wanted to appear. Just like
- 37:13he hit Miley. It gives you the line of exploitation beyond the moon of
- 37:16lying that I was talking about for ariy Voolmonson and for us to be my
- 37:20tannita. He beat him for the tacher on the occasion of the Falklands,
- 37:23the model and the other day Aquitilog and now hit him for the issue of
- 37:30dengue, which says he erases himself completely before the epidefy that well, obviously
- 37:35it is political, has no re- election in his district, which is
- 37:39the correct thing is pre- candidate to the President. In good, but
- 37:40that' s how little an open opposition or criticism of Miley poses within the
- 37:45suffering actors to this government that seeks to distract, that seek to peep recently
- 37:52in Millay and but it is not an anti- corruption discourse against the caste
- 37:55in an international forum organized by him, the great specialist in the matter,
- 38:00who is José Luis Manzano was a spretadist in corruption. The former Minister of
- 38:05the Interior and Member of Parliament read interesting and thought- provoking. Never,
- 38:10as was Inda omereniac In her colleague, never as now, did we as
- 38:15humanity have more access to information or more possibilities and platforms to debate all the
- 38:25issues. However, what should have enriched us in matter of thought says Inde
- 38:30Pomereniacs Come was niex forgiveness pomera nek forgiveness, pomeranet forgiveness difficult episode is what
- 38:37should have enriched us in matter of thought It froze in the narrowness of binarism.
- 38:44The black white bias, there are no nuances that are in the middle.
- 38:47That is why the one who opposed quinnerism in the case of one or
- 38:52criticized now cannot be a means. I say that I tell you that there
- 38:55is a change, that has to complement its change, but that not necessarily.
- 38:58The only change is this one of me We' re here, or
- 39:02we' re there, says Pomera a niec. We all think that the
- 39:07reason is on our side and that we also have with the topic networks,
- 39:09not that we follow, or the networks also in the subject of algorithms give
- 39:15us the reason, they enclose the networks in the same circle of people who
- 39:20think just like us. We all think that reason is at our side and
- 39:22no one cares or feels it necessary to deepen the exchange of ideas. Then,
- 39:28messing with this concept of Inde Pomeraniec that, as never before in humanity,
- 39:32we had so many, we had so many possibilities and platforms to debate.
- 39:36And yet, we each keep their eyes on one side and on the
- 39:39other, and we don' t go to the middle, but we get
- 39:43a little fancied. And this has to have been the subject of algorithms for
- 39:46which we follow or are a little bit. So, in any of these
- 39:51many social networks, I had promised to dialogue with María Castillone and director of
- 39:54six economic sections, so we will fulfill it and that also meet us good
- 40:00afternoon day. Fernando, Greetings. How are you? What are you?
- 40:02Fernando? How you doing so well. Thank you for being the good guy
- 40:10to see what happens to the Monetary Fund, Caputo' s trip, the
- 40:15needs say fifteen zero million dollars to get out of the stocks calmly and not
- 40:22forced, devaluing pressures from the Fund itself seem to be once again, pressures
- 40:27from exporters' field oil evaluators in the face of a fairly low exchange rate.
- 40:31You' ll tell me if you think he' s late or not.
- 40:35Today we have, for example, the Blue, at the limit of
- 40:37almost three digits of nine thousand. I counted on like one thousand fifty-
- 40:40nine and the dollar mepsi in three digits nine hundred ninety- eight. Okay.
- 40:45I' m gonna start at the end of your question. It'
- 40:49s impossible if you want to shun the Dale Dale Bank Fund, if it
- 40:52' s going to be plotted. It started on December 13, the day
- 40:57that that leap was defined, the official exchange rate that was ridiculously low at
- 41:01that time, at three hundred and fifty pesos with a regime of eight hundred
- 41:07make two cortiso monthly, knowing, obviously, that jump that was higher that
- 41:10out there was estimated at the beginning, but with a mattress, obviously,
- 41:15because any change of price relative releases of price controls plus illustration defining it was
- 41:22obvious that we were going to solarly, initially of alfiltration. So, obviously
- 41:24there was a look there that was going to eat inflation, the official exchange
- 41:30rate gain. That, no doubt as time goes by. Obviously, that
- 41:36' s impacting and it' s within what would be the forecast when you
- 41:40saw the monetary scheme, the reality is that my inflation is doing the same
- 41:46or I' d say something less than out there what was expected at the
- 41:51beginning, at least in our case, not too far away, but something
- 41:57smaller and we' re expecting inflation. It' s good March that they
- 42:00didn' t close two comma seven at the Gran Buenos Aires level. April
- 42:04could be close to twelve with the increase the age taripaso, but maybe inside
- 42:07it could be a little lower. That' s going to help, but
- 42:13obviously they were very high inflations and for male, as anticipated a few moments
- 42:15of the setting may be much lower. We open it in a comfortable digit.
- 42:20That' s not what' s good news. Pursue or nine by
- 42:22the way May. Now I take out the number eight, nine percent on
- 42:24plus that cold, something like that could be less than eight. It could
- 42:29also be less than eight because when you look at the ad, you'
- 42:32re already running that eight coma eight or a little above the last eight four
- 42:37weeks. And if we get out that in May you' re not going
- 42:40to practically cut off tariff increases more than a little bit of a raise and
- 42:45a month' s inflation in some books, well, that' s good
- 42:47news. Let' s say the hand is that in Abri was going to
- 42:52win well, obviously the strong impact of the gas sum, which was very
- 42:54late, but which is a very very significant jump. Not said this,
- 43:00obviously in inflation, being more than two more inflation if you want the world
- 43:02will be zero and a half phone, a two and a half points changi.
- 43:07Obviously, the equation gives you that you' re going into dollars.
- 43:12Now still this type of champion, considering that not in the exported, receives
- 43:16twenty percent of the financial dollar. It' s an acceptable exchange rate.
- 43:22It' s the best, it' s not likely to depend on the
- 43:27sector, but it' s not a sustainable exchange rate. In fact,
- 43:30it is fifteen percent above what was the real exchange rate that there was,
- 43:34especially in two thousand seventeen years, that we were already without sepo, from
- 43:37the beginning two thousand sixteen without dry and where the colony was growing, obviously,
- 43:44when one who knew also generated challenges that rate change so low. The
- 43:50day eight funding was cut off and no more at the end of April two
- 43:52thousand and eighteen we had a problem. Now is a critical moment, real
- 43:57exchange rate. We do not have it good relative international prices lower than last
- 44:04year on corn leaves, but they are good prices and above all an important
- 44:08issue, or two more important ones. The first is that the gap today
- 44:12is low and you consider the ivuestro country. If you evaluate them you would
- 44:17be with a problem with the financiers, they would not stay below the officer,
- 44:22something rare not and have such a postponed gap and a Central Bank that
- 44:28keeps buying every good day that marks that, ultimately, you should not be
- 44:32so in a hurry to correct, why? Moreover, because correcting the official
- 44:37exchange rate, we know, has an effect on inflation. It' s
- 44:39not that it explains inflation, because, ultimately, it doesn' t apply
- 44:43to the girl, the money, but the short term, the price of
- 44:46fuels, the basic energy, the base in mouth husband, the oil,
- 44:52foods that are have an important component. So if you jump the gold as
- 44:53an officer, you would have a jump or an increase back in price and
- 44:59also in the ugly expectations of a society that today knowing a desperation and the
- 45:04illustration that we had very high and that is enormously acting on its male goat,
- 45:07then you would not gain too much by evaluating and you have a lot
- 45:12to take. As for expectations, in terms of late price corrections, with
- 45:15which we saw a discreet assessment scenario if we see that, as soon as
- 45:21the balance is normalized, the Central Bank and weights are raised and still have,
- 45:24and especially with the Fijian anchor, the government does not generate defiles,
- 45:29that is to say that it does not have to issue new weights, although
- 45:34you are issued many still kept from the old eficiits. You could go freeing
- 45:40the Dry And there you go with your first part of the question. Well,
- 45:45what it takes to free the brain, you really couldn' t release
- 45:49it to the stocks. Today, the problem you have has a Central Bank
- 45:51that still has negative reserves. Although he corrected a lot, you still have
- 45:57many pesos withheld. That brings you to a central bank, which doesn'
- 46:00t have too much room to deal with any strong demand to go from peso
- 46:07to dollar. So it seems to me that, prudently because of that,
- 46:12given the huge inflation and the injection of the economy, the government is not
- 46:17wanting to get out kind so fast we are jumping. I think that in
- 46:20a few months we' ll be releasing what we don' t know that
- 46:22if you go, you' ll give it all or part. And the
- 46:25question is, you need a disbursement to the fund to go and say I
- 46:30don' t know if, in the end, what the government is saying
- 46:34Some days says yes, another says no. It' s not true,
- 46:36it' s just that it could have some certain standards, as it did
- 46:39in its time for I when it maxi pain, kind that actually had contingent
- 46:44funds to give a signal of greater central long strength that were never used at
- 46:47the time' s end. People fight from the good bottom. It could
- 46:52be monetary, it could be private, it could be private with support from
- 46:54the Fund. We don' t know, or it could happen and come
- 47:00out that one or for a few months. Product that continues with this process
- 47:01of strengthening the Central Bank. Don' t open the heat. Today you
- 47:07get money for this from private, dive banks. It does not yet seem
- 47:15to me that to the extent that the government that shows its ambition and I
- 47:19believe that there is a tool that could help a lot if it is concrete,
- 47:23that is to sanction the famous May Agreement or with the ten points to
- 47:27the May Pact, and that obviously requires some agreement with the basic law.
- 47:31That I think is the road map that you have to look at to see
- 47:35the times in terms of the evolution of all this, because it is important
- 47:38the basic law, because because it gives the government more tools for the justification
- 47:42to be done in a slightly more orderly way and, moreover, without other
- 47:45ingredients that take away costs from the private sector. As for regulation and talking
- 47:50about the chapter of labor reform, we have to see if it is incorporated
- 47:52into the basic law and if it is passed, which would allow us to
- 47:57give more signs for invasion and to abandon that is something that is obviously a
- 48:01key step towards a recovery of the economy. And there if the bow would
- 48:07open the type so that investments can enter by covid There are many sectors that
- 48:12there is some investment, they have, but great ducation there is not,
- 48:15because today the one that does not enter dollars, if it can not take
- 48:19it out later, then that would be like the end of a process where
- 48:23I think that priority is first to achieve the wanted fiscal and to lower inflation
- 48:29or at least the thick administration and to be like having a digit in a
- 48:36sustainable way and then the institutional legs to be able to give tools, to
- 48:39be able to open the dry and that the economy can, beyond bouncing,
- 48:45start to grow in a way a little bit of a more sustainable, anchored
- 48:52in areas that Argentina today has of enormous, enormous opportunity and that the world
- 48:58is looking at, but that is also waiting for additional geniuses to be able
- 49:04to put them out in Argentina to see many vectors of what you were talking
- 49:07about one of the many we see some that we have a little time with
- 49:09this type of foreign investment change. We' re not expensive. It'
- 49:12s convenient for a foreign investor. We' re talking about real economy more
- 49:15than you finance. Investing in Argentina. Okay. I believe that the problem
- 49:19today is not whether it is so much the exchange rate, because there are
- 49:21sectors that are still super attractive, energy, in fact, cowy, but
- 49:28those that have some special regime, where they are guaranteed, let' s
- 49:35say, availability of foreign exchange. Invertion' s already looking perfect. The
- 49:37very relevant and legacies investment by PS that is mixed, no, but that
- 49:40coordinate national states but also private companies. I don' t think it'
- 49:45s such a cost problem. I' m in terms of exchange rate.
- 49:50If you have the problem of labor contingency, contingencies, gambling arrangements and,
- 49:54as I said before, a regime where you had the dollars, you have,
- 49:58in fact, I would use to say transfer of inter company loans that
- 50:04you cannot cancel. So that' s all you get in the short run.
- 50:08Today is affecting you enormously. It seems to me that the exchange rate
- 50:13in fact you do not have to end the real exchange rate you can determine
- 50:16in the very short term and in Argentina I had almost nothing. In fact,
- 50:20the last map evaluation lasted a month because inflation ate it, because it
- 50:23didn' t have this it seemed yes, in passing you said inflation is
- 50:30to see or ask. It is only or centrally a monetary issue. What
- 50:37in taking inflation, tame taxation, depends centrally or practically only on your view
- 50:45of the monetary. And I' d tell you the money. But first
- 50:52the fiscal, because the fiscal today what humanity slept. Yes, I mean,
- 50:55first if you, if you don' t give a sign that you
- 51:01' re going to spend what you have, you' re not going to.
- 51:02You have to ask me more from the Central Bank, more than you
- 51:07claim you live them, in fact, more when it came up as a
- 51:10mesc economy, said we have to finance one more gossip with the Central Bank,
- 51:15and it did it indirectly in a brutal way. So I don'
- 51:17t have cheribdoxcal today that I don' t have credibility, that I'
- 51:22ve failed and that, besides, I' m off the mark. Then
- 51:23it won' t be credible. That' s why I' m telling
- 51:25you, the gypsy leg is nailed. The second currency is necessary condition,
- 51:30because, in addition to the problem of new luxuries, I have a stock
- 51:34problem of that which I am issuing in the past, which are held in
- 51:38the easy space, then it keeps coming out. The central snoring balance is
- 51:43very important and today what is being seen is that the monetary base, that
- 51:47is, the pestos, where the lumps did not change, be equal nominally.
- 51:51But you still have to figure it out. Part of the weights you
- 51:53have saved. You' re helping him because you haven' t found out
- 51:59a little lower. Another part, you took it out with the bonds or
- 52:01real ones that were pinsos that you had kept from debts to importers. But
- 52:06since you didn' t give him dollars, you gave him, you told
- 52:09him that I still don' t authorize you to deposit the dollars and those
- 52:15deposits ended up at the Central Bank. They generate those interests for you.
- 52:17You haven' t finished it yet so it doesn' t finish lowering the
- 52:22sentenceal expectation and in the short time you obviously have these price corrections that in
- 52:28the short term are inflation. As long as you wouldn' t match it
- 52:30monetaryly. Those leaps of relative facts later are not eternalized, let' s
- 52:35say, not fascinated in time, because you can' t validate it cononitarianly.
- 52:38I mean, it' s monetary. Above all, obviously, as
- 52:42you were told May, you have a direct effect of the change of portions
- 52:46of Tarifa and the spending of the law you are going to give two points
- 52:52seconds, but you are not going to take it out in time. In
- 52:52fact, many prices of the economy today especially where you have it. They
- 52:58were very high, even with regard to costs, because it was very difficult
- 53:01to spend for the dams. Yeah, and here it was going to happen
- 53:05with the kind of financial truck, what was going to happen to the officer,
- 53:07what was going to happen spuriously and sumo if there were to be price
- 53:12controls. Let' s say so many, so many uncertainties, that there
- 53:15are many prices left ais we are seeing today in our survey, that is,
- 53:20in march. There were nominal reductions in prices of electrodo- mexicos,
- 53:24of quite significant electronic products, so much so that our neither went down during
- 53:30March year. It also has to do with the touch- up not in
- 53:34many cases it does not have to be about this clear, about snuffing as
- 53:45it is, as it has to see, obviously, that it is not
- 53:49a single thing, but I did not see that it said yes, yes,
- 53:53yes, yes, just the flow that the economy is also like hour
- 53:57we have much less like the normal one. We had an excess of consumption,
- 54:00but for the bad reasons that it is people ran out and guando you
- 54:05would see ho do all the weights in the series, yes, take out
- 54:09the pieces pre- emptively and also demand dollars in their moments of height that
- 54:13today they are selling. Not all because it does not reach them the tasting,
- 54:16but they used the management of what is called the flow, the short
- 54:20- term stop, instead of healing it in fishbook, in the animal investment
- 54:22fund that we made another one giving a saving box with high insation and not
- 54:27knowing what was going to happen. They don' t love me, they
- 54:29bought dollars I buy learning, but they weren' t savings dollars, long
- 54:32coffees in dollars and short- term management, because in the face of uncertainty
- 54:37we were going to know what was going to fire all that people the typical,
- 54:42they were about sure, of course, just like why the hours we
- 54:44see it so low. The lu almost again at the edge of the three
- 54:45digits reached one thousand two hundred, one thousand two fifty at the end of
- 54:50January. For putting up a case. I can' t also talk about
- 54:52the opposite of liqui, but I can put the most popular, the blue,
- 54:54because the blues nothing but a thousand. Whether we say it or not,
- 54:58I don' t know if it' s anything else, but I
- 55:02mean, yeah, well I' d say it' s a combination of
- 55:02coastline. There is a component that has to do with expectations, but that
- 55:07said before as at that time many people of bandós dollars as refuge, as
- 55:12always happens in values and was totally say when one adjusted because infrachico, change
- 55:17of panic. The opposite is happening today, if not, for if the
- 55:23government maintains the one we gave gristal, if not, inflation is falling,
- 55:28if not. But we' ve stayed a bit changed and so goes the
- 55:30center bank is buying dollars and in the short term horo has senses that winning
- 55:34the left, even if it gains little weight. I prefer an interesting house,
- 55:37but there are people, there are some who also and there is a
- 55:40lot of sale to say, many economic people taking out dollars offers. I
- 55:44' ll change your wallets, just like sometimes to change Cartira and others,
- 55:49because it' s like I tell you, they used it for liquidity management
- 55:52shelter. You have a combination of sa. There aren' t so many
- 55:55asking for dollars in the financiers the same thing happens, and besides, it
- 56:00' s bloodthirsty. He' s fed too because there' s 20%.
- 56:01Well, you' ve long been a part of the export. I
- 56:05love the financier who feeds. We lack the financial as well and there is
- 56:09interest today to enter Argentina partial because, as I say, to set dry,
- 56:15but there is some of that also then today this is happening and it
- 56:19does not seem that that scenario will change in the short term. No,
- 56:22and in fact, the argument is if you' re going to see the
- 56:28fpo completely. You have demand for dollars or you have yes and some believe
- 56:30in Chepara I' m able to tell my parent that I' m staying.
- 56:35I stay in prison knowing that I can go to the dollar when I
- 56:38want to invest in Argentina and something not that gives me profitability can also happen,
- 56:43that is, that can enter dollars you can get out. As we
- 56:45say, it is not that it is obvious that you should systematically raise financial
- 56:51donation at some point, if there is inflation, nominally it should correct.
- 56:54Yeah, not in the short run, either. We see him going and
- 57:00towards something very high, because besides, now he' s coming is sonally
- 57:04a season throws. That' s what we started with. You told me
- 57:07that not by expectations and so on, the government shouldn' t. Now
- 57:10I' m talking to you at the beginning, and I' m saying,
- 57:13you see. Everywhere the pressures. Let' s say it will be.
- 57:15Of course, there is also a bit of some background documents. The
- 57:19government is going to resist There' s going to be a good harvest.
- 57:22In spite of this, let' s say or as someone told me an
- 57:28economist has passed, they will liquidate by starting the minimum and they will wait
- 57:30a little bit for clarification it will gradually liquidate the exporters, already the thick
- 57:35harvest from the next few weeks looks in February. It seemed more difficult today
- 57:40every time we see or people screen or people are believing more than the government
- 57:45what they say will not be, that will heal. For now this scheme
- 57:50and that is not governed, because when one believes that this is going to
- 57:54happen, you see it in the futures and are settling in a scenario of
- 57:59no short- term evaluation with which pressures will always exist, because they will
- 58:02always want a case hello. And it' s all obvious. I think
- 58:07they' re getting more and more plumbing. We' re going to talk
- 58:09about it especially well. He' s already normalizing six payments at the impo
- 58:13stations slowly, and he' s still buying you I need it. So
- 58:16it seems to us today he makes a prize to make this joint, not
- 58:22like they' re Distinguished a lot of things. The payment of important is
- 58:23being regularized, María is being regularized the import pau. By some critics say
- 58:28good the centennial did buy more than ten zero million, but the reserves were
- 58:31fortified good round number not between five and six thousand because it continues to kick
- 58:37payment importers. Which he was most criticized for. The government is doing the
- 58:40same thing Blah, blah. There is a rule that they imposed on that
- 58:4513th of December which implied that it is now true. There' s no
- 58:49uncertainty. There are many products you get paid in about thirty days. There
- 58:52are others who pay in posts on two or three things. That' s
- 58:54why I' m saying just now. Now we' re being organized,
- 58:55which has felt like you' re going to get into it like the system.
- 58:59The ruin has already begun to work and on the new wheel. So,
- 59:02there' s no kicking about that. But the rule itself consisted of
- 59:07kicking because you had it. I do in fours of those imports. But
- 59:09it is very different from juice in the previous period, where there was total
- 59:14discretion not in payment first the first time that even six months were parted and
- 59:16forced to walk six months all payments and then, in reality, there was
- 59:20a lot of discretion, with different legal obstacles, concreteness and corruption, and
- 59:25corruption also correction. As well as not, besides that, you ended it
- 59:29by putting in some prices at the end of the day, that is,
- 59:31it doesn' t benefit you anything because you liquidate less import dollars, but
- 59:36the dollars you saved, why you didn' t evaluate it. Then he
- 59:38didn' t pay more for the import. You ended up paying it,
- 59:40because they transferred it to you anyway they don' t use dollars, but
- 59:45they didn' t transfer you the financial cost of not being able to pay
- 59:51the import, the cost of the comma. All those costs put us in
- 59:52the grounds, which was very, very, very bad and fisso. What
- 59:55is there today you have a prís. It is finishing normalizing now because they
- 1:00:01will reach the deadline of the last quota here is what they pay in four
- 1:00:06few, for which reason the doubt of the measure that advances the time.
- 1:00:09More payments are started to be recorded, because everything comes into effect. We
- 1:00:14' re going to start selling dollars to the central fungus and for now it
- 1:00:17' s not happening. The strong liquiation and it has not yet started,
- 1:00:21but a lot of movement is being seen to change towards the ports. What
- 1:00:25we' re seeing is that white also, after a lousy harvest last year,
- 1:00:29there are some who need to liquidate, also with which I would relativize
- 1:00:32that. I think obviously, some people who have one can wait and speculate,
- 1:00:40but they' ll be names. There' s not much of it
- 1:00:43today. It' s not the stuff we' re going through. Surely
- 1:00:45in this or when ok good three or four short feet and I already run
- 1:00:50the next interview, when the FM seems to run left in quotation marks.
- 1:00:54The government asks for more social restraint, not about a plant to goals and
- 1:01:00so on, What does it sound like, let' s say short by
- 1:01:04itself. When I tell him, he did it all the time. Like
- 1:01:07this. This salvanteria is not the first that they do, in fact,
- 1:01:10in the program with masses, with the same, with more on fulfillment,
- 1:01:17nothing. Today was an extension. It has been social, caring for the
- 1:01:20social, caring for social sustainability. And this, I believe, are quotation
- 1:01:23marks that were added after several failures in programs of raised by the Government of
- 1:01:29the Monetary Fund both the last experience where it did not raise us the day,
- 1:01:32but that ended badly by the fiscal demand that there were in two thousand
- 1:01:37eighteen two thousand, but that there were not let us say did not raise
- 1:01:42our heads, that ended complicated, as in the two thousand one. The
- 1:01:44memory of two thousand one, where it ended directly, did not give us
- 1:01:46the last disbursement and that triggered the end. They see it as a new
- 1:01:52political correction, so to speak, international guaco. Let' s just say
- 1:01:57I see it exactly as that and if you look at it numbers and I
- 1:02:00do time for the government. The opening of the, the cost elbow took
- 1:02:02care of some expenses. In fact, the universal child allowance, the food
- 1:02:07card, and now the two thousand ten, rose sharply and increased it much
- 1:02:12more than inflation. Or the coverage was increased with respect to the basic basket
- 1:02:15and plans to sustain it and the retirements after a terrible equation, but pro
- 1:02:21product of having maintained the formula the previous government this denebu reverses more from now
- 1:02:27on. That is to say, the two March of April you recover in
- 1:02:30real terms and in the next year you recover less, but it continues to
- 1:02:34recover and at the end of the year it continues like this. Christmas and
- 1:02:35in our base scenario, retirement is not going to be nine percent in real
- 1:02:37terms above December last year. Obviously, it is a very low level,
- 1:02:42but it is good to try to correct it on a street or at the
- 1:02:46level of December last year. Nine percent of yes, exactly or not.
- 1:02:52This is this being using the formula. It is not the illustration with inflation,
- 1:02:58a scenario of moderate moderation. Our moderately low room will be given because
- 1:03:02the formula. Let' s say a ball with this one and then squealing
- 1:03:07the picture that doesn' t tell you the same formula no, so you
- 1:03:10managed to reverse the fall of November December. Let' s say quickly,
- 1:03:16especially that of the first, that of January, February, after that of
- 1:03:20December, already measured that the months pass and the season of little going down
- 1:03:24are recovering you do not see a level clearly, but that is another discussion
- 1:03:29that I believe goes within a comprehensive reform. There' s no formula.
- 1:03:32You don' t have to figure it out. The good formula of eight
- 1:03:36percent you warned in principle. Obviously we took care of the word for May
- 1:03:42that you were in economic advisors. When? How long? You' d
- 1:03:45get a plausible, acceptable, two three percent by the end of the year.
- 1:03:49Let' s say to I don' t know it seems difficult,
- 1:03:54it seems without going to two at the end of this year that the subject
- 1:03:57is highlighted by many colleagues. Yours is good. Okay, I put it
- 1:03:58down a digit, it' s eight other great good is what had mass,
- 1:04:01of course say, no area closure back or but beyond all that,
- 1:04:03I say how you get down after that improved one digit. Ah the government
- 1:04:08is going to be a great act to celebrate the digit. But it actually
- 1:04:11opens up that there is something plausible going on the two and the three,
- 1:04:14by the time we get to that moment, in theory let' s say
- 1:04:17by expectations yes, look here at two things, but it' s not
- 1:04:18the same thing. Eight freezing everything and delaying variables that having corrected. No,
- 1:04:25but, well, let' s agree that eight is still what you
- 1:04:28said you' re still very high for the people' s golfer, which
- 1:04:31is very important, but it' s not the same as the dinente at
- 1:04:34the head of the future expectation. No, no, it' s not
- 1:04:35okay. But that' s fine, but you have to contemporate there with
- 1:04:40income. Not because if there are, of course, several trains, we
- 1:04:43don' t have our pockets or talk. Likewise there are effectors, or
- 1:04:46there are some books that are already having palintharias that are accompanying him quite well
- 1:04:50in another very bad meth, always in the subtracted vas with the autonomous treasures.
- 1:04:56The Government is also putting in place not so much liberalism. There it
- 1:04:59is by setting limits or stepping on some parity. You have Malá, I
- 1:05:01don' t like the character. You have Moyano complaining that he is not
- 1:05:04approved by the agreement that he signs that he should pull. I think those
- 1:05:08are bad during the day. I think that' s kind of not very
- 1:05:11transitory. I don' t see it as a permanent look, no,
- 1:05:14but good beyond day. At this point, we saw very likely inflation,
- 1:05:18or I don' t know if very likely, but likely. If inflation
- 1:05:23can be at perhaps four percent per month in the last months of the year.
- 1:05:28It' s not two, but it' s a much better number.
- 1:05:31That' s why we shut you down this year and what estimate we
- 1:05:34probably have is good coming. This obviously goes to us, having twenty-
- 1:05:38five twenty, this whole chain that carries administration of about one hundred sixty-
- 1:05:43three, hundreds sixty- one hundred sixty- five percent. There are some
- 1:05:46colleagues of ours who are still above that who are reviewing the discharge that for
- 1:05:50next year. We' re already seeing, as I tell you, starting
- 1:05:54communication for four percent a month and then it depends on how firm the policy
- 1:05:59we' ve come out of. And obviously, we all leave what we
- 1:06:01see. But I think the modern world is faster today. Corrections are taking
- 1:06:06place faster and I think it has to do with the fact that the experiences
- 1:06:09of high inflation were not so recent. Everything we economists studied, experiences followed
- 1:06:13in a world with less technology, and technology that helps not who corrections can
- 1:06:17be launched faster up, unfortunately, also down. Not said this, next
- 1:06:24year as if to be. Inflation between fifty forty percent will still depend it
- 1:06:30' s too soon to say no, but I think you' re going
- 1:06:34to be maybe mid- year next year. There' s that goal that
- 1:06:38you set the two- and- a- three percent monthly may be,
- 1:06:45but well then bring it down from there to a goal like no, having
- 1:06:46the failure of capable promicins that takes us longer. No, but I'
- 1:06:50m not telling you such high illustration experiences. There' s nothing but the
- 1:06:56mid- 1990s. Let' s say, there' s a lot of
- 1:07:00time back from our neighbors that they learned about this thing that we' re
- 1:07:01learning. Hopefully, we' re learning from rules that we don' t
- 1:07:05have that more than ideology played to lower inflation and leave the central target is
- 1:07:11that with hands- free to deal with that, I hope it requires just
- 1:07:16with tax dusca and a lot of other rules that Argentina is discussing now.
- 1:07:20Not so I say. Having said that, I know, we have no
- 1:07:25recent experience. Well, this capable and experience and technology is one that'
- 1:07:28s a little faster. But, but history shows that that' s not
- 1:07:30so fast to solve. Do not gdar inflations and five percent per year more
- 1:07:36difficult to fall from twenty a year or fifteen years to five that maybe from
- 1:07:42two hundred made understand that to fifty is more. We' d say thank
- 1:07:49you so much for having a long talk. Thank you, thank you,
- 1:07:51not a taste at all. Maria Chillen and director of that and economic theorists
- 1:07:56here in popular construction, is obviously director of system like Camiletecornei, which is
- 1:08:00part of our body of columnists, also sometimes comes out, Sometimes you go
- 1:08:02out, Sometimes we send audio recorded. Okay, let' s talk the
- 1:08:06show to the fiancées after four o' clock in the afternoon. Or there
- 1:08:09was a little aime and I touch them twenty- five because I have to
- 1:08:14fly out to look for Don A Valentina Mauri from his fourth degree division to
- 1:08:20see well, said Maria Casti, optimistic lion, forty fifty percent inclement prones
- 1:08:25coming. By the middle of next year, we can be in a cough
- 1:08:30three percent more plausible, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, et
- 1:08:33cetera. Well, let' s see if I have Don nuby on line
- 1:08:38less minutely and say hello, yes, don cool me good afternoon, how
- 1:08:43are you doing? Okay. Thank you for giving us a taste a taste
- 1:08:47once again good to see how Kislov' s positioning, which inexorably has to
- 1:08:55be pre- candidate President, has no reflection in province. I see him
- 1:09:00positioning as well as the few of oppositional frontality and with some skill. I
- 1:09:05would say marking the Atacher on the theme of April 2, Milaye' s
- 1:09:09taste for the Tatcher. And now I' m going to go out with
- 1:09:13the issue also to criticize the government for the issue that, as it released,
- 1:09:15for example, for the issue of dengue the forehead that if it is
- 1:09:24a governor of the province of Buenos Aires. That' s always a problem.
- 1:09:28I' m not saying,' cause he' s got enough trouble
- 1:09:34to solve. Okay, it' s the only figure there is. Peronism
- 1:09:39can show that it is known nationally. But, well, it seems to
- 1:09:47me that we have to wait, because he' s his story, it
- 1:09:54' s a very close story to Cristina and let' s say that today
- 1:10:03she' s quite Cristina seems quite questioned by the historic electoral of Peronism.
- 1:10:04I don' t think we need to see how it develops. Let'
- 1:10:09s say it was clear, it was the confrontation that he has with maximum.
- 1:10:14Let' s say how he plays Criptis. He' s the one
- 1:10:18who talked about going to another song. I don' t remember that last
- 1:10:20year and that' s why it would also be yes yes, he talked
- 1:10:25about another song, playing another song and I think he' s getting it.
- 1:10:30Let' s say what Peronism is. Let' s not say in
- 1:10:33the good sense that he is part of it and not that he is someone
- 1:10:38who because he studied and had Marxist formation. I don' t know.
- 1:10:43There' s no evolution in the governor, but well he' s a
- 1:10:48young man. We have to wait for him. The thing is, you
- 1:10:50seem too early to talk about running. I fell for what I wanted to
- 1:10:57see. I wanted to mark it more than that schism. Bly is going
- 1:11:00to be an opponent, that there are very few lust voices there are three
- 1:11:02or four you. It seems that in the firmament that come out to question
- 1:11:06harshly to my law let' s say at some point lu already weeps note,
- 1:11:11but they are negotiating. The erasers are in need. But I say
- 1:11:14there are few figures that good, Cristina, exposing with some letter, but
- 1:11:17that go straight they beat you a figure that, in theory and you will
- 1:11:21tell me also now, is quite popular. Or you keep a certain honeymoon
- 1:11:26like the President' s, so head- on against him. Let'
- 1:11:30s say I think we' re going through a logical process. It takes
- 1:11:33four months of government, three months and long, not long, because we
- 1:11:40' re going to take you away, nothing, fifteen, three months and
- 1:11:45fifteen days. You can' t say no here, and it seems to
- 1:11:49me that the level of expectation it generates is logical. But I would also
- 1:11:58like to make it clear that this expectation only reaches. It doesn' t
- 1:12:04reach his or her own voters. Not that it' s very clear,
- 1:12:11because the level of expectation. If you measure a question or think that things
- 1:12:15are going to be here a year from now and there' s a forty
- 1:12:19- seven percent that says better, things are going to be better, it
- 1:12:24' s more, if I want you to reach people who say good things
- 1:12:27are okay. We' re three hundred and fifty, but he took out
- 1:12:30fifty- six percent of you, I mean, he has to give you
- 1:12:32fifty, the best of cases, fifty- six, of course, means
- 1:12:36that he doesn' t get to generate expectation in his own voters as a
- 1:12:41whole, not something that' s a little strange. Let' s say
- 1:12:45if you look at the history of the Presidents, of the last presidents in
- 1:12:49the one in Argentina, you happen to face it. Never, never gets
- 1:12:53caught, never faced an adjustment like this also says one also collateralizes with that
- 1:12:57not that of which it has lost is the reading, but much, lost
- 1:13:00little in function of the mega adjustment that it is making unpublished in the history
- 1:13:03of Argentina. I could practically say one who lost little in quotes to see
- 1:13:10the people who voted for it. If you start to try in the middle
- 1:13:15of the social process, you voted it assuming that he was going to have
- 1:13:25between one and two years of difficulty in governing previous studies. We had qualitative
- 1:13:33studies that people said we have to give two years to my law because it
- 1:13:39is going to have caste, it is going to have populism, it is
- 1:13:42going to oppose everything that is traditional. Well, then he assumes in that
- 1:13:49context, in a concept that has to be understood in Argentina. I'
- 1:13:59d like to think about it in these terms. When the card was the
- 1:14:02backbone of the Peronist movement and the Argentine society was supposed to fight against the
- 1:14:12powers, it was because the formalized workers were the majority now the informal workers
- 1:14:19are the majority and it is the truth that Milay largely represents those informal workers
- 1:14:30who are more than the formal ones, who are the ones who have felt
- 1:14:35totally unprotected by the State. And then there they quickly engage with the speech
- 1:14:42of my law and the speech of freedom. I can' t say it
- 1:14:45' s freedom, it would be quick and hard- working rap hands and
- 1:14:47so on. That. According to that there were figures. Yeah, well,
- 1:14:49well, yeah, yeah, to pose them easily. Well, he
- 1:14:53also spent eight million against six million. Somehow. Now the pre tip is
- 1:15:02all that electorate of my law, not because then we have the Master'
- 1:15:08s degree that was added up later, but let' s say that Milen
- 1:15:13who is the most rebellious, the most anti- state, the one who
- 1:15:17can love him tells all the politicians, not even Bacry, trajemono. Let
- 1:15:23' s just say the one you' re telling Miley is you take the
- 1:15:28stone out of the shoe, that is, it gets me down. General
- 1:15:31inflation. There is the economics that the dollar does not go up with the,
- 1:15:38with the insecurity and until I can develop the question is if that does
- 1:15:43not happen, what happens then in three months. That can' t be
- 1:15:47valued by anyone, because the beginning, people are blamed by the previous government.
- 1:15:54So the question I would ask myself is good, now, with three
- 1:15:58hundred percent of the gas, with three with three hundred percent, also of
- 1:16:01the light, with this a state that is with economic recession, with lower
- 1:16:10consumption, well, how much longer will it take people to say, your
- 1:16:16time ended, my waiting time ended. We don' t know that today.
- 1:16:21If we know or six months, we came six months, let'
- 1:16:26s say well, one year two, as I said, no, that
- 1:16:29' s right, let' s say there' s fifty percent of the
- 1:16:32population that says up to six months and there' s another forty- seven
- 1:16:36or so that says tea. I give between six months and this and whatever
- 1:16:43it takes, not between nine, nine months and whatever it takes, then.
- 1:16:48That' s split in two. The subject. That' s why
- 1:16:53the question is to what extent we say it. This idea that the dollar
- 1:16:59is stable and inflation is low, which is what is generating the process of
- 1:17:02expectations, then it is not actually reversed. But finally, in the end
- 1:17:11I can' t buy. You can' t produce no without getting work,
- 1:17:17so that' s the problem my law is in right now. That
- 1:17:21' s why we said it. That' s a hurry if I see
- 1:17:26him He' s already changed the situation with regard to the last time we
- 1:17:30talked. If when you start to delve into what the governors have to do
- 1:17:34with the actor of May, you have to film it as that in my
- 1:17:39law or to realize. It must be signed in a similar way. Accept
- 1:17:43suggestion from governors and there are clear people not. It doesn' t make
- 1:17:47you think so. If you look, accept suggestion from the governors. You
- 1:17:53have to accept of all laws Not my law. Fifty percent tell you no,
- 1:17:57there' s one like that no, and there' s a thirty
- 1:18:00that says no one directly has to reject it. And if you hear and
- 1:18:05do a plebiscite to give full powers to look and people also say that you
- 1:18:12don' t even go before a thousand LII. I want to say that
- 1:18:15we are with a President who has half an expectation, but who cannot do
- 1:18:18everything they want, not only because the political leadership puts him, but let
- 1:18:27' s say, in the legislatures, in the national legislature, but also
- 1:18:31because the people say that I am not willing to have them be neron or
- 1:18:40you are not surprised, or that we are my little girl who has dropped
- 1:18:45five or six points, because she still waits for a despite the plenary or
- 1:18:48the very strong adjustment, because good are the first months. Kuta people,
- 1:18:49people can wait six months or what we said doesn' t surprise him.
- 1:18:53Both the level of approval, which is not the sixties, and some media
- 1:18:57or colleagues, or management, manipulate. I' ve got it at 45
- 1:19:01points. The personal image of him if he is at fifty- three points,
- 1:19:06fifty- five points, as we always say, always more in personal
- 1:19:12personal images, but always the personal image of any President is more at ten
- 1:19:19points, more than the discharge. That if you look at Christina Kifner,
- 1:19:25I saw a selection, but it had positive image balance in the personal,
- 1:19:29but in the image, but the management didn' t have it. Then
- 1:19:32one thing should not be confused with or frank when a question at the lens
- 1:19:39level that the government has, does not reach the fifty points, that is,
- 1:19:42at forty and something the level of acid. What happens is that people
- 1:19:44don' t finish defining themselves if that decent positor or there are things I
- 1:19:50don' t like, but I still don' t define myself as an
- 1:19:55opponent, because it doesn' t have what to say either. There'
- 1:19:57s none. We see again, back to what you started with your dialogues.
- 1:20:01No opponents, no positor speech. I would say these things that began
- 1:20:08to raise this and silf and which company to propose lustro. It' s
- 1:20:13the logical things that have to contradict. I say the triad he has there
- 1:20:20when he says we defend freedom, life and in a third thing, he
- 1:20:28defends that I don' t remember and say and that' s contradictory,
- 1:20:35let' s say dens and almost advance is the contradiction with painting life to
- 1:20:40the forgiveness of the third, the other is private property. If what you
- 1:20:42' re going to have is a policy for everyone to lose their dollars.
- 1:20:45You' re learning against each other' s private property. It does not
- 1:20:50mean that it seems to me that we see that the opposition still did not
- 1:20:55realize where it has to stop the situation. But it is not discursive discussion,
- 1:21:03not because the other question of waiting for the times of society, that
- 1:21:11system. That' s what some people say, what Cristina Fernández says,
- 1:21:13I say it' s not easy to be an opponent today at this tide,
- 1:21:16where at least we' re my little girl, it' s not
- 1:21:19easy where to stand, it' s not easy to obstruct or not approve
- 1:21:24or something like that. Some governors, some people say more if I give
- 1:21:28you the law, so you have no more excuse and then if we give
- 1:21:30you the law it' s fiscal order. That' s how he doesn
- 1:21:33' t have any more excuses. Can' t you use us any more
- 1:21:35as an excuse that you' re going wrong or don' t take it
- 1:21:36out? He can' t use us puchinmool anymore to say and they saw
- 1:21:40it was because they didn' t leave me and blah, blah, blah.
- 1:21:42I mean, it' s not easy either. I don' t
- 1:21:45mean to defend Loredo' s, Judge and all unpresentable, but sometimes I
- 1:21:49say it' s not easy to stand up and be a critical opponent.
- 1:21:51No. Therefore, it seems to me that the opposition what you have to
- 1:21:56think is where the proposal of the country, what you can do and from
- 1:22:01there structure an opposition that people already feel a proposed chick, was that people
- 1:22:09feel that they can reflect on it. No, that' s not what
- 1:22:15happens It' s very not to see, as we' re talking about
- 1:22:18the few months, so that applies the position. I say with what I
- 1:22:20counted the devastated land that generated the Miley phenomenon, the division of together by
- 1:22:25change, defeated Peronism and so on. That' s how it is,
- 1:22:30too, as it says. And well, Fernando, it' s normal
- 1:22:31for Lee to be my little timer, and more or less, it'
- 1:22:34s also normal for the opposition not to be rearmed or armed at all.
- 1:22:39Let' s say no, no, no, that' s absolute,
- 1:22:44that' s clear. No. Likewise an opposition say when Alberto arrived,
- 1:22:47when Alberto won, it was clear, let' s say opposite. It
- 1:22:50was so dark. No, but it was a different scenario because the opposition
- 1:22:55went pretty well. After the glaring break, the pace improved a lot that
- 1:22:59took as a lost five to zero by golea in step and ended up powering
- 1:23:02three to two. If she doesn' t turn to the other one.
- 1:23:04No. No, we' re not going to hear much, a lot
- 1:23:10of legislator and two blocks in Congress Let' s say the Boca River,
- 1:23:14the bipartisan, biqualitionism remained. Now all that' s been wiped out.
- 1:23:15Let' s say one. So or maybe we can be thinking about a
- 1:23:17situation where Cristina wins Alfonso or the eighty- three. In that yes,
- 1:23:24or in the two thousand eleven let' s say where Cristina wins, but
- 1:23:28besides nothing, she didn' t also win in the first round and remember
- 1:23:33that Miley didn' t win in the first round. That' s why
- 1:23:35we were lost. But it' s true, let' s say across
- 1:23:38the street. It is difficult to articulate a discourse when it is not understood
- 1:23:43is what the main opponent says wrong, which should be Peronism. The first
- 1:23:47thing that has to be answered is where I want to go why I would
- 1:23:54answer you, what it did wrong Now Yes, you insist on thinking that
- 1:23:58you did everything right, thinking about the same country that I thought before and
- 1:24:03with that you will not be able to move forward. And feronism still thinks
- 1:24:05he did everything right. No. It seems to me that what I see
- 1:24:11is a strong question. Not only Alberto a Fernández, because Alberto' s
- 1:24:16client was always there, he was always very questioned, but also Cristina.
- 1:24:20It' s not what we' re seeing. The renión tempts him the
- 1:24:25maximum, throws Guzmán the guilty Guzman of the first part. I mean,
- 1:24:30they' re still in an intern. I' m telling you how to
- 1:24:32say it wasn' t Alberto, no, but it was Alberto with Guzmán
- 1:24:34no. But then he came more and got better. It doesn' t
- 1:24:36go on as in the internal rancill to argue, but I' m already
- 1:24:44listening to Ferrares who says che let' s stop with this that Cristina handles
- 1:24:45everything. Navarro saying let' s stop Cristina handling everything. No, then
- 1:24:50it seems to me that there. I hear a joke in fran that says
- 1:24:55a similar thing. I hear in governor of the pampas he tells you one
- 1:24:59thing to analyze Cristina' s robol. And well, because objectively we have
- 1:25:06to analyze it. Finally, it was Cristina who decided to have subsec go
- 1:25:11up if Bulu so decided that the President should be Alberto. It was Peronism.
- 1:25:17It will not be overcome while what happens is good, It remains the
- 1:25:21first minority within Peronism, that is, But, on the other hand,
- 1:25:25it will not be super or as long as it remains under the influence of
- 1:25:28Cristina Fernández. Now, someone who can stop you, there' s someone
- 1:25:30who can brown you today or tomorrow jar cries or whatever it was today looks
- 1:25:34difficult. No. That' s why I say if from within, good
- 1:25:38species postkis nerism. He does as he pleases, but I say he can
- 1:25:43perhaps maneuver something Munieque was something, but neither can he see anything overcoming or
- 1:25:49post- Cisnerism from an antagonism, speaking always within Peronism. I say no,
- 1:25:53but it' s a long process. It' s general, it
- 1:25:56seems very good total is going to make you a long process, unless you
- 1:26:00start making mistakes. Miley, in economic terms, who makes the opposition is
- 1:26:08calm and forced to get you together. Let' s just say that we
- 1:26:14don' t know. I don' t think I' m opening an
- 1:26:17interesting process for today. We are seeing the emergence of prestigious economists of liberalism
- 1:26:28to begin questioning the policy of economic adjustment. Then there we are already starting
- 1:26:35to give the first few. Yes, yes, the first problems. Yeah,
- 1:26:42totally a taste, as usual. Thank you so much, please,
- 1:26:45for a hug. Open leftover lu Waimek in plural construction. Well we had
- 1:26:48plenty and a half long to recover yesterday' s absence. Thank you Silvia,
- 1:26:51carbajarlo for the preproduction to Juan that we recover with the putting in the
- 1:26:56air. See you here Tuesday, as usual, starting the week. I
- 1:26:59leave them a few minutes before they rest a good weekend for tut bye bye.
- 1:27:13Plural construction led by Fernando Mauri by Radio Trentopic