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NFL Mock Drafting with FantasyLawGuy · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's a little bit different, a little bit different.
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  Speaker 1: This time we are presented by our brand new presenting sponsors,
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  Speaker 1: our friends at BET three sixty five. We're super cited
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: about that. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion Michael Padre a man, I miss
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: so much while I was out last week Professional Better
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Eto, So I'm in.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: Hello, hotcha. I still can't believe we still have what
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: four or five months till week one this offseason. Buddy
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: is Dragon right now?
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Listen it is Dragon a little bit. But we do
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: have like the final stages of full on drama heading
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: into the Draft, which is a week and a half away.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: We got a full week of podcasts devoted to the draft.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: You and I You are brilliant when it comes to
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: the Draft. I have a ton of opinions about the Draft.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Our guest today is a draft expert, Nick Garrisco, better
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: known as Fantasy log Guy. Listeners can find his stuff
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: at fantasylog guy dot com. You may be asking yourself,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: why are we having a guy who's known as fantasylog
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Guy on the podcast to talk about a mock draft.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: But Nick is a longtime NFL mock draft expert. His
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: final NFL mock drafts have finished within the top ten,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the top six, most accurate in three the past four years,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: is judged by Mock Draft Database. We're going to bring
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Nick on in a sec. He's got a fascinating story.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: We talked about it before he came on the podcast.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: He's going to explain to us how he ended up
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: doing this and where he's doing this podcast from. Before
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: we get to Nick. All Right, you guys know, you
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: guys know how much I love game time. Right, I've
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: talked about it so much on this podcast. Not only
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  Speaker 1: do I love it, true story, I was out last week.
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  Speaker 1: by the way, as a reminder, the Favorites podcast is
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  Speaker 1: proudly presented by BET three six five, the world's favorite
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  Speaker 1: sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code action to get
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• 3:50
  Speaker 1: gambler Simon, We freaking love the draft. Should we bring
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Nick in?
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: Let's do it?
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: Nick? Welcome man, Thank you so much. This is honestly
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: an honor to be on the show today. I really
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: appreciate you having me.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Well, you should be honored. So let me tell you something,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: let me ask you something. Actually, i feel like I'm
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: still getting my wits about me being back on the
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: podcast off of vacation. I'm flipping words. I'm almost like
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: I'm a puppy. I'm a little too excited about about
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: three sixty five. I'm too excited that we're, you know,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: flying on our own right now. Simon. It's it's making
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: me a little anxious. But people can't see this yet,
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: but they will see the video. Nick is wearing a tie.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: He looks great. Tell people, Nick, right now, where you
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: are broadcasting from.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: I'm broadcasting from a classroom at Saint Paul's School in Covington, Louisiana.
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: It is a freshman classroom.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: And what are you teaching there?
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: I'm teaching English one in journalism, and I'm teaching law
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: next year.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Fantasy Law Guy. Explain to people why a English teacher
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: in louis on this podcast talking about the draft, calling
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: himself Fantasy La Guy.
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: Well, I am an attorney in Louisiana and I graduated
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: from Tulane law school. I think one of those diplomas
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: there in the back is tu Lane Law School. I
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: graduated undergrad at LSU, so I'm pretty local to Louisiana
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: and I was an attorney for about five or six
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: years before I decided to transition into teaching. I wasn't
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: getting a lot of job fulfillment and personal satisfaction from
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: being a lawyer, and I thought that I could get
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: that being a teacher, and so far.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: So good.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: I pretty much knew the moment that I stepped into
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: the classroom and started instruction, I pretty much knew that
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: this was kind of my calling. I was going to
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: do it for the rest of my life. As far
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: as as far as the brand name goes, yeah, I guess.
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: I guess now it's you know, not as applicable being
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: Fantasy law Guy, But that was just kind of something
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: I branded myself with, and it's fantasylow Guide dot com
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: is where you can find information. I really I'm a huge,
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: huge nerd about fantasy football drafts and about the NFL draft,
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: particularly mocking the NFL Draft Round one, and it's something
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: I've been doing every August and every April. And so
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: I started tracking it about a decade ago on an
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: Excel sheet, started looking at comparing it to other mock drafts,
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: seeing if it was seeing if I really could stand
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: with the experts who actually do this for a living,
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: which I do not. I don't get paid for this.
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: But over time I've started submitting my mock drafts to
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: different websites like mock draft database dot com, and these
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: websites have kind of really just been getting popular in
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: the last couple of years. They're kind of taking off.
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: There's different ones other than the Huggle Report now. I
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: think Fantasy Pros does one.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: I think mock draft Database is the one that I
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: know and love, and they've been tracking me for about
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: four or five years now, and the results obviously have
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: been pretty promising. So I'm just going to continue to
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: do it. It's something I love doing, and I spend
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: any available second in March and April I can on
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: trying to predict where players are going to go, gathering
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: all types of pieces of intel information, everything possible, just
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: to try to make those predictions.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: All Right, Well, look it's been working out, like we said,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: incredibly accurate according to the third party rankings. I admire
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: the fact you're a teacher as the father of a
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: sixteen year old sophomore in high school boy who just
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: spent spring break with him and his buddies. These guys
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: can take disengagement and disinterest and quietude to an art form. So, uh,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I wish you all the luck in the world teaching
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: them English.
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: I appreciate that. Yeah, apathy is the biggest issue uh
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: here as well. I always want the students to apply
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: themselves and try as hard as they possibly can. But
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: but but yeah, I'm ready to talk NFL draft. Appreciate
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: all the words.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: So is Simon Simon right now the biggest the biggest
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: conversation in the draft, Bryce Young or CJ. Stroud? Give
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: me your take. We talked about this on our daily show,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Green Dot Daily.
• 8:37
  Speaker 3: Give me your.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Take on what's happening at the top of the draft
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: board right now with those two players.
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: Well, chat, it looks like I'm about the lose six
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: figures by the looks of it. Looks like Bryce Young
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: is the guy. I've talked to a lot of people,
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: a lot of really smart pros. They're just I think
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: they're not not that just following along with what's going on.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: But two weeks ago, Mortensen, who works for you Span
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: put out a mock draft where he had Bryce Sean
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: going one to Carolina and say, we had heard a
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: couple of people say that stuff. This was the first
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: really big name on a big platform like ESPAM putting
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: that out there. And what do we see the next morning?
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Bryce she Young was I think minus one twenty five
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: and then CJ was plus say one fifty to be
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: their first pick. Now, fast forward two weeks later, Bryce
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Young Chad is minus one thousand to be the first
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: pick overall, and CJ isn't even favorite anymore to be
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: the second pick. I mean, we just saw Will Levis
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: and another book just moved him to be the favorite
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: to be the second pick. It's madness. So we talk
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: all the time, Chad.
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: This is.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: There's a reason books don't take big money on the draft. Right,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: they're gonna they're gonna take a position where they don't
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: want to get hurt by the draft. And we've seen it. Hell,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: you've seen it. Have we switched sponsors here, there's our
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: old sponsor used to have I want to say two
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: hundred draft props right, I would say even three weeks
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: before the draft, they two hundred draft props. Those days
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: are gone. I mean, if you're lucky, there's maybe two
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: or three books now that have a ride of like
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: a wide range of different draft props. Things have just changed.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: So right now the way that you know most people
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: are mocking it is Bryce Shung will be the number
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: one pick. I mean if he's minus a thousand. The
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: books are clearly taking a stand right now. And this
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: is all based off once again, people in media who
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: we can say what we want. Their job is to
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: get viewership. Like in the end, at the end of
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: the day, Adam Schefter's job isn't need to be right
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: about the draft right. You can go through his phrasing,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: how he words things. He'll never take a complete stand,
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: he goes. I'm hearing sources say he'll never say this
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: is definitely going to happen. So I love it, Like
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: to me, this is what I live for chat the drama,
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: And we already talked about earlier today. This could be
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: one of the biggest poker moves of the off season.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: If Carolina, if their guy is CJ, but they know
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Houston wants Bryce Young, why wouldn't the GM Why went
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the owner? Why want the head coach said, well, we
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: like Bryce Young. We're gonna take Bryce Young, we have
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: him his highest greatd player, and try to get Houston
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: a trade up to that number one pick. So the
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: drama is crazy. Right now. We've seen a guy I love,
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson go from being the third best odds of
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: being the first pick overall to now this guy might
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: not even be a top ten pick anymore. And we're
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: seeing a guy like Will Levis, who you know, most
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: people thought maybe he'd go to the Colts at the
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: fourth pick. Now he might be the second pick. Chat.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: So see me as someone that likes to fade the
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: public and bet against the normal betters. I'm either gonna
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: win a ton of money betting some crazy odds and
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: crazy quarterbacks, or I'm gonna lose a ton of money
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: because this draft will be born as hell and schefters
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: dead on that say, oh it is Bryce Young, and
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: then Houston truly is an interest in any other quarterback.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: They just wonder Bryce maybe they will take a d
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: end or a d tackle. I mean, who really knows.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: So I love that we're having on guys talking to
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: draft year, because to me, we already talked about chat
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: This feels like the Baker the Sam Donald, the Josh
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Allen draft. We have three quarterbacks, all good, all have big,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: big red flags. Who the hell knows is really good
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: to be number one pick? I mean, Sam Darnald, no joke.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: People forget this. He was minus seven hundred the day
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: before the draft. You woke up the next morning Baker
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: Mayfield minus two hundred. That happened literally in a day
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: on Wednesday, Thursday before the draft. So to me, it
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: feels like Bryce Young's the pick. Everyone's saying it is.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: We've heard the owner of Carolina say that's what we wants.
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: Did we really know?
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: No?
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: Because no guys coming out and putting their foot down
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: sand it really is. So you know, Nick here, he's
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: gonna have a way clear view on this, and I
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: will I would love to hear his view on what
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: this top ten will be. Obviously I'll go through his
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: picks here. But you sit here right now, Nick, do
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: you think it is Bryce Young definitely going to be
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: the number one pick.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: I do think that it's going to be Bryce Young.
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: But I wouldn't have thought that even a couple of
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: days ago, especially a week ago. I like you thought
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: that the tea leaves were pointing to C. D. Shroud
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: being the selection at number one. There were videos that
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: were done by C. D. Shroud on underdog dot com.
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: I mean sorry by the offensive coordinator for Carolina who
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: who pointed to Stroud as his favorite quarterback in the
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: draft that was done on underdog dot Com. A lot
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: of people were looking at the height similarities between Frank
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: Wright and his quarterbacks. The only thing that was really
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: clear was that Carolina was going to take a quarterback
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: at pick one when they made this move, But the
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: books really jumped on C. J. Stroud immediately. However, while
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: I do agree that there is a reason for Carolina
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: to take advantage of basically the draft's worst kept secret,
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: which is that Houston loves Bryce Young, I do agree
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: that this could be the world's greatest smoke screen, and
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: they have every incentive to do it. And I also
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: find it very suspicious that this leak wasn't just a
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: Chris Mortenson like every media puntent local and national, was
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: all of a sudden, within a span of two days,
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: all of a sudden, Hey, they're definitely they're taking Bryce Young.
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: Bryce Young's the guy. The leak seems a little loud.
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: In my opinion, it's kind of sketchy. But like you said,
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: minus a thousand is almost a certainty, so I'm really starting.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: In fact, I just changed. I just made that finals.
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: I was holding out hope like you were, that I
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: was going to be stroud. I think it was easier
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: for mocking purposes. But I just recently pulled the plug
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: and changed surprice Young at number one, probably about forty
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: eight hours ago. I would say, and look, this is
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: why it's an evolving document, and this is why or
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: the mock drafting is and yeah, this could be a
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield situation. It could be like I think in
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: the NBA draft there was controversy at number one and
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: paula Bench era. It wasn't it wasn't figured out until
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: I don't know, the night before, maybe the morning of.
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: So this has happened, especially as sports betting the drafts
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: have become more popularized about the States, and especially here
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: in Louisiana, which had just became legal. Last year was
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: the first draft where we were allowed to bet on
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: the draft. However, right now I'm assuming that the draft
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: starts at two, and I'm mocking accordingly. But to your point, Simon,
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to be shocked despite the number the
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: minus you know a thousand, that Bryce Young is going
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: to be the be the betting odds for the first pick.
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to be totally stunned. If it is CJ. Stroud,
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: I'd be surprised, but I don't think we should rule
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: it out to this point, especially because I believe CJ.
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: Stroud has a visit with Carolina coming up this week,
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: and I bet you you know, if it's in the
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: NFL's best interest, I bet you we hear some stuff like,
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: oh well, c J. Straud is giving them something to
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: think about now, and I can just kind of see
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: that playing out this week. But we'll see as of Young,
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: as of Young. As of now, I have Bryce Young
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: mocked one, but again, I just changed it that in
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: the last forty eight hours.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: How often, Nick, will you change your mock.
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: Draft every day? Not to cut you off, but there's
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: something I'm really passionate about. I think that a lot
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: of websites do kind of a disservice, or a lot
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: of experts kind of do a disservice by only putting
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: out like one mock every you know, two weeks or
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: whatever it is. Really I am. I am grinding every
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: day on this so every bit of information, like the
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: Simon knows this better than anyone. The draft market is
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: extremely fragile. Like one little report by anyone, not even
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: a credential media MEMBERI or somebody who just has a
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: lot of followers can put out there, oh I've heard this,
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: and they will take down the bet or they will
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: shift the odds dramatically. I mean Vegas Refund, for example,
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: posted something about Joey Porter's over last night and I
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: think Caesars took it down within minutes. I mean, so
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: people are having a massive influence, not even just reporters
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: and like schefters of the world, but other people. It's
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: an extremely fragile market, and that the point is that
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: different data points in different facts, different connections, all of
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: the puzzle pieces being overturned, are are leading to certain
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: answers here or leading to better chances to get these
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: answers and to project them or correctly identify which teams
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: are interested in which players. Some of it's fake, some
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: of it's real. But my point is I'm grinding on
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: this stuff every single day. I mean, it is not
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: uncommon it's actually very common. Like last night, I was
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: looking at the arm length of Bengals defensive linemen that
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: they've drafted in the last couple of rounds to see
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: if it disqualified a guy like Elijah Cansy from being
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: taken at picked twenty nine. So I picked twenty eight.
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: Excuse me?
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: So yeah, this stuff. People are figuring out information, they're
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: figuring out connections, and that is having an influence on
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: the odds and all. This is to say that I'm
• 18:29
  Speaker 3: updating my mock regularly, probably several times a day, especially now,
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: like every day until the MOTT until I post eventually
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: my final mark, which will be you know, probably whenever
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: mock draft database requires me to submit, which will be
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: probably be like I don't know, I think it was
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: last year, was like three or four hours before the draft.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: So Nick mentioned Vegas Refund also known as Luke Swayne,
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: who is a member of the Action Network team. He
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: was with us all season long on Action Ireland. He
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: was with me and Simon on the Favorites pod talking
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: about the draft. He is a mover and an influencer
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: when it comes to draft markets, and they've been doing
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: an Action Draft podcast on the Action Network podcast Network
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Nick will be joining Luke on Monday on the Action
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: Network Pod for our final Action Network NFL mock Draft episode. Simon,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: you and I have been through this before. We went
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: through it with the Trey Lance and Mac Jones stuff,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: and you came out ahead on that. It was a big,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: big win for you, and you just mentioned you could
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: be down significantly. Are you laying off? Are you hedging?
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: Like?
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: How are you? How are you managing your outlay? When
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: rumors like this are swirling?
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: I feel like I'm just gonna take it on the chin.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: It was just a bad read by me. I just
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: the Bryce Shining thing will never make sense to me.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: If Bryce Shrong ran a four three forty, I would
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: have been like, Okay, this kid makes sense to be
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: the number one pick. But he's not like Kyler Murray.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: Kyler Murray is I mean, Kyler Murray is twenty three
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: pounds heavier than this kid was Andy ran a sub
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: four four forty. It's like, Ray Young is not that
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: kind of athlete. The kid is just arguably when the
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: smartest football players ever, And like, I get it, that's
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: a huge strength. But I just never saw a team again.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: It's such a big deal. I can't stress it enough.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: It's we talk all the time chat. There's what ten
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: of these guys in the league. It's just it's really
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: hard to find a starter in the league. It's really
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: hard to find a Jalen Hurts. It's not that hard
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: to find Ryan Tannehill. Like that Tannehills happened all the time.
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: Any of these guys could be another Ryan Tannell, the
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: guy that, yeah, he's good, he can win, he can
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: make some plays when he has the right players around him,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: but he's he that superstar level player. And I just
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: never ever saw that with Bryce Young here, Like I
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: get it where these people are coming from. This kid's
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: this kid's ceiling is incredible. But to me, that was
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: a bad read. Buy in me, and then I let
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: the books dictate it too much. Like like we were
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: just talking about Elier. When CJ became minus one ninety
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: or to minus two hundred, I was like, Okay, this
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: is the move. This makes sense now, like this number
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: will keep going up, this is who they're gonna want.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: But that, once again, that was based off of nothing.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: That was just my own opinion what I'm hearing from people.
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: So That's the toughest part of this year is Schefter
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: has a deal with different people. Right Schefter could be
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: working he could be close agent friends with whoever Bryce
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Young's agent, or he could be working with the Panthers.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to get this information out there so the
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: Texans do make a move. That's the hardest part of
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: this year. And that's why the books they just don't
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: take the money. Chat Like, even though I wanted to
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: get out of my position, it would be so much
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: work to get a ton of money down on Bryce
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Young to be their first pick. It wouldn't be worth it, Honestly,
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: it would just would not be worth enough, not only
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: how much I have to pay in taxes, how much
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: I had to pay all my runners to get money
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: in It just would not be worth this point, so
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: bad read by me definitely gonna look like I'm gonna
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: take on the chin. But I'm a psycho, like I
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: already bet more on CJ to be the first pick.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Still so kind of digging my feet in a little
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: bit about it. I'm trying not to be too stubborn
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: about it. But from everything I hear Chad as we
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: sit here on Tuesday, A week and two days before
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: the draft. It seems like it really is a poker
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: play by Carolina about Bryce Young. But the owner does
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: like Bryce Young. Tapper likes Bryce Young. And at the
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: end of the day, I told you I've been in
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: these war rooms now, I've worked with NFL teams. It
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: don't matter. You literally give your opinion to this guy
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: who's writing the checks and he's the one that makes
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: the decision. And we see all the time how stupid
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: that is. If your owner is the one that's making
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: decision about the quarterback, that's a huge negative red flag.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: And again go back to my Eagles team. That's a
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: great example of the Eagles already had Carson Wentz and
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: how he went to the owner and said, listen, I'm
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: taking this kut Hurts in the second round because I
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: think he is the upside of Russell Wilson. The owner
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: didn't bat to night and you go, well, already got
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: my star franchise quarterback and Carson Wentz. No, he let
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: his general manager do his job. So that's my fear here.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: It's a new owner on Carolina. This guy wants to
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: make a splash. So yeah, Chat, I would say, seing nervous.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. I've been dreading all week. Every
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: morning I wake up, I'll check the odds and it
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: keeps getting higher. Like you say, he's up to minus
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: a thousand. It's just like, all right, gotta swallow my product.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Take on the chin. Here. Just a terrible, terrible read
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: by me thinking that a quarterback who weighs less than
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: one eighty and playing weight that doesn't run a four
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: to four forty would be the first pick. But these
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: are the times we're living in. I mean, the general
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: manager on the Carolina Panthers talked about how he was
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: there when they drafted Russell Wilson to the Seahawks. Okay,
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: they're just completely different players. Russell Wilson weighed forty five pounds.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: One of the kids, Russell Wilson's playing wave right now
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: is two forty. This kid, Bright Shawn, will never be
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: playing wit at two forty. He's one eighty right now.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: If he's lucky, he'll put on thirty pounds in his
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: NFL career. So I'm losing my mind because I just
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: don't see it, Chad. But once again, you could tell
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: I'm bitter. I'm very bitter about which money about to
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: lose here, So it is tough to swallow it, but
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: I gotta do it. I just had a horrible read
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: on how all these teams would evaluate these quarterbacks. I
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: just not see Bryce Young being in one pick. But
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: once again, he's minus one thousand to be in n
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: one pick.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: All right, so we mentioned Anthony Richardson at least, Simon
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: you did. Bet three sixty five has great draft markets
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: out right now, including Anthony Richardson and his position to
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: be draft over under. Right now, they've got it at
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: three and a half. The over looks like it's minus
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: two eighty the under. I'm reading this right. Sometimes it's
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: hard for me to see everything. Matt Mitchell, tell me
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: if I'm doing it wrong. Plus two hundred, Nick, where
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: do you have Anthony Richardson? Right now?
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: There's always a possibility of a trade up the Texans,
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: assuming let's work on the assumption that Bryce Young is
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: going to be the pick at number one. I don't
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: think it's over yet, but I think for the purposes
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: of this discussion, we'll assume that Young is going to
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: be taken number one. Well, that means that the Texans
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: at pick two are either going to take the quarterback
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: two on their board because we know they love Bryce
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: Young and that the rumor is around the league that
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: they may value Will Levis. Now, do they value them
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: enough to take them at pick two? I'm not really sure.
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: They also have that twelve pick that they could kind
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: of use to move up if Levis were to slide.
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: I'm not really sure what the Texans are going to do.
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: But what I am sure and what Lance Zerline, who's
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: one of the more valuable I don't want to call
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: him that he is valuable, but one of the best
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: insiders for a team. It's his connection with the Texans, trusted,
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: reliable source, and he has stated that several times that
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: the Texans are looking now, assuming Bryce show is going
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: to be the pick, the Texans are now looking to
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: move out of that pick now. So yeah, pick two
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: potentially being shopped and that kind of kills Arizona's market
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: because Arizona's been shopping to pick it.
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: Picked three.
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: So then you get to the Colt to pick four,
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: who may not have as much incentive to move up
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: for a quarterback. I think that Anthony Richmond is definitely
• 26:32
  Speaker 3: a consideration for the Colts. He could go to Ford
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: in Indianapolis. He could certainly go to the Raiders at seven,
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: even in a trade up or not. And the team
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: that I'm looking at to move up for either Richardson
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: or Stroud if Shroud were to fall is the Titans
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: at eleven. I don't think they're going to sit back
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: there at eleven and wait, they don't have a ton
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: of draft capital. But I think if Richardson or Stroud
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: falls to that I don't know, five six, seven area.
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: I do think that the Titans would want to move
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: up in front of Atlanta because I think Atlanta may
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: take Stroud if he's there. So the Titans are kind
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: of a team that I think would my best bet
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: on probably being aggressive to trade up for a quarterback there,
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: whether it's Stroud or Richardson.
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: So you take, you take Guner in the three.
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: You know I'm gonna leave. I'm gonna leave. I have
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: some bets that I like, I don't that's not a bet.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: I haven't bet on any of the quarterback numbers yet.
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: I'm still trying to. I've been shocked, and I don't
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: know if you have, Simon, but I've been shocked at
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: the lack of rumored interests matching quarterbacks to teams. Usually
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: it's a red flag, as in, like, hey, maybe the
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: teams don't love the quarterbacks like Richardson and Levis as
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: much as the media perceives as much as media wants
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: them to go high. Usually with quarterbacks, there are all
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: kinds of rooms. The Raiders are in love with this guy. Oh,
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: the Colts love Anthony Richardson. I'm not seeing a lot
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: of that. I've seen some of it, but I'm not
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: seeing a ton of that this year for some reason,
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: and I don't know. To me, it's kind of made
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: me hesitant to bet the quarterback market at this point.
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: If I had to say, I'd probably say the over
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: on what it was at three point five. Yeah, I
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: think the Colts may sit there. Take them at four.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: I think the Titans may move up, and I think
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: the the Raiders potentially with Anthony Richardson, we could see
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: that as well. But I think the Titans are one
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: of the better bets there. So you just said.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: You you haven't bet the quarterback markets. That are other
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: bets you like better? What are some of the bets
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: you like better?
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: I think I don't. I haven't put nearly as much
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: money on it, as Simon over here, definitely not near
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: the high stakes that he is. But but JSN first
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: receiver off the board, I think that that's not the bet.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: To be clear, his over underprop is twelve point five,
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: and to me, that is pretty aggressive. It's pretty embitious
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: to say that he's going to be a top twelve pick.
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: I think the reason the number exists is because of
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: Houston's pick at twelve. Except based on everything, Zerline, I'll
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: bring it up again is saying is that the only
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: way let's say Houston needs a quarterback, so one of
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: those two picks that they have picked two and twelve
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: could be a quarterback. Another pick is probably going to
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: be a defensive lineman. The only way Houston I think
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: takes JSN the receiver out of a high state is
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: that is if they take defensive lineman first. Let's say
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: Will Anderson, they Brys Young goes one, they take Will
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: Anderson two, and they're like, Okay, let's pun on quarterback
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: this year, which is not of the ram of possibility.
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: But even then it's not a sure thing they would
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: draft Jackson smith Njiguitt number twelve. I don't see the
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: Titans doing at eleven. I don't see him going in
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: the top ten. This is a slot receiver primarily who
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: didn't have a particularly fast forty I think it was
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: four or five to two. We'll call that average, I guess.
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: And then he missed. He played sixty snaps last year
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: for Ohio State. He barely played the hamstring maintenance all
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: year long, and he's had one season of college production.
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: Teams typically do not draft slot slot receivers with those
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: type of measurables and that one year of production, with
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: an injury history, they don't draft him in the top twelve.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: And a lot of people are saying, oh, you know,
• 30:34
  Speaker 3: he could be the next Keenan Allen or Justin Jefferson. Well,
• 30:37
  Speaker 3: even keen that could be great, that could be true,
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: But even Keenan Allen was a third round pick because
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: of injury concerns, and even Justin jeffersone was picked twenty two.
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: Obviously Jefferson should have been taken higher, but it speaks
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: to the team's hesitancy toward drafting a receiver whose primary
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: roles in the slot. So already you need a team
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: that really value use the slot receiver position. And then
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: doesn't have a great, great speed, and again andrey history,
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: there are a bunch of reasons why Jackson Smith DIGIGGBA
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: could be a really good pro. But he does not
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: fit the profile of a top twelve pick at all.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: And that's why I would bet the over on twelve
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: point five. I see his range being closer to and
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: it doesn't sound like a big deal, but I see
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: his range being closer to fourteen or fifteen. I think
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: the Patriots are in on him. I think the Packers
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: are in on JSN. But it wouldn't surprise me to
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: go further. It wouldn't surprise me at all if teams
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: just don't view this receiver class as anything like last year's.
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: And it wouldn't shock me if JSN goes closer to
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: Seattle's pick at like pick twenty. Again, I have him
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: mocked at fourteen to New England, so it's not a
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: massive disparity between his twelve point five over under. But
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: when you have a twelve point five prop, I'm just
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: trying to look at the teams that I don't think
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: anyone's trading up for this guy because of the concerns
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: that I just laid out. But if you have twelve
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: point five prop I'm looking at teams you were going
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: to take him before pick twelve. The only team I'm
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: seeing is the Texans, and they just have bigger concerns quarterback.
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: And then Dimiko Ryans first year coach, you have to
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: believe he's going to want a defender with one of
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: those picks. Like I just I have a very tough
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: time believing that the Texans aren't going to take a
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: defensive player with one of those two picks, whether it's
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: pick two or pick twelve, seeing as Demiko Ryans is
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: a defensive minded coach and former player for the Texans,
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: former linebacker. All Right, So.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: That's an interesting one because the wide receiver market has
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: been something that a lot of people have been talking about,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: especially with JSN sort of where he's going to fit
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: in this draft. If you were to run through right
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: now as of Tuesday, April, what is today April eighteen, eighteenth.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Four twenties and two days bruh.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: Four twenties and two days before we get crazy, what
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: is your top fifteen?
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: Top fifteen players that I think just in no particular,
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: in a particular order and no particular are players that
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: I think are going in order. In order, well, that's
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: tough because I'm still waiting out the trades. But right now,
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: on my mock draft, I think I think I have
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: the Texans taking Will Anderson too. After Bryce Young goes
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: to Carolina, I think Tyree Wilson to the Cardinals at three.
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: Now here's the thing. I don't mock trades, so in reality,
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: I think one of these quarterbacks are gonna go at
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: least one are going to go higher because of a trade.
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: But right now I'm not really in the business of
• 33:55
  Speaker 3: mockting trade because it's too speculative at this point. I
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: think the water will clear or be less muddy about
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: a week from now. However, both the cornerbacks, I think
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: I've Gonzales going to the Raiders at seven. They could
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: also go offensive line. Witherspoon going to Detroit at six.
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: He's a really really good fit there, and I believe
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: he's the betting favorite to go six five star. I'm
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: working in a jumble to order. I'm just kind of
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: thinking about all the big time the top ten prospects
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: here Seattle. I'm not really buying their interest in a
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: quarterback at all, and same for Detroit at six. Seattle.
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: I have them taking either Tyree Wilson or Jalen Carter. Obviously,
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: if Will Anderson's there, I think they'll take him as well.
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: Defensive ends Nolan Smith, Lucas van Ness probably top fifteen picks.
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: Nolan Smith probably might go a little higher Atlanta. I
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: would say Nolan Smith's range is between Atlanta at eight
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: and maybe pick nineteen there. Same for van Ness, probably
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: eight to nineteen. Jalen Carter I have going to either
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: the Seahawks at five, the Bears at nine, or the
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: Eagles at ten. Those are the three teams I've kind
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: of zoomed in on for Jalen Carter and could see
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: Bajohn Robinson in there, could see js and at fourteen
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: or fifteen. I think I have him gone to the
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: Patriots right now. I don't think any other receiver will
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: be taken in the top fifteen. But then you have
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: the offensive tackle market. You have Paris Johnson Junior could
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: go as early as I believe, to the Chicago Bears
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: at nine. They could also take Progerick Jones out of Georgia.
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: They could take Peter Skuransky. They're in definite need of
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: a left or right tackle. Depending on what they want
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: to do with Braxton there, and I think that Darnelle
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: Wright also going to play for the top fifteen. There's
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: a lot of tackle needy teams and those four offensive
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: tackles are a good bet to go with at least
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: in the top sixteen, I would say. And again I
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: know this is jumbled up. But then the lastly, the
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: two corners that I think may hit the top fIF
• 36:00
  Speaker 3: team but probably closer to probably closer to the seventeen
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: eighteen to twenty two ranger Deontay Banks and Joey Porter Junior.
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: Those are I think I've covered all the players there
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: who I'm expected are expected to go. I kind of
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: view it as a top excluding the quarterbacks, probably a
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: top sixteen right there. Excluding quarterbacks, you add four more
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: and now we're at top twenty. So those four quarterbacks
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: going to the top twenty, and all the players I
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: just mentioned, I believe I reeled off sixteen players. I
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: kind of see that, as you know, some players will
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: go a little bit later. Obviously, players always fall. Those
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: are the twenty players that I feel very comfortable with
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: mocking in round one, And a lot of these websites
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: will grade accuracy on if you miss out on a
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: first round or at all. Those are players that I
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: can say, not for one hundred percent certainty, because you
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: always have medical rumors or whatever that can change everything.
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: But but I can say right now I feel confident
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: that those players, the twenty that I just listed, the
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: four quarterbacks and the sixteen other players will go in
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: Round one.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: It's crazy to hear about just all these teams that
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: you know, just teams I would pass on quarterbacks where
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: I couldn't. I'll never get over the fact that the
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: Falcons took pits over Justin Fields. Even I mean me
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: and chat talking naism about it, I couldn't get over
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: the fact that it was being mocked out. That's another bet.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: I lost a ton of money on. I bet a
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: decent amount that Justin Fields would have been drafted by
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: Atlanta because it just made sense. Same thing with the
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Seahawks here, Like the Seahawks, if CJ does slip or
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson does slip, I just I don't see how
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: the Seahawks don't make the move. Like I love the
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: Geno Smith story, that was all fun and good. He'll
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: never be a top five guy, and that's the whole
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: reason you draft these quarterbacks. You're drafting for a top
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: five guy, You're drafting for an upside. I love justin
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: fields like a young spark to come into a team
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: on a cheap contract. Man, that's heartbreaking here, and all
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: these teams just pass on quarterbacks like this, but just really,
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: really quick. I want to get your take on this,
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: just because my guy Vegas refund hooked it up. I
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: bet at twenty five to one and twenty one Zay
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Flowers to be the number one pick for wide receivers.
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: We've seen his odds go way way up after he's
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: had a couple of workouts. I'd love to hear your
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: view on it. You think there's ston any kind of
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: value right now in bed three sixty five to bet
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: him at plus four hundred to be their first pick,
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: because we've seen the number come down, right it's he
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: was at ten to one a week ago. Now he's
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: down to four to one. Is there still any value
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: there on Zay Flowers in your opinion?
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: I think there's some value. I have a tough time
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: believing that JSN is going to get past both the
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: Patriots at fourteen and the Packers at fifteen. Jay Flowers
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: benefit even though he is undersaize at five nine, five
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: to ten and whatever he came out at. He's an
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: outside receiver, so teams are going to value that. He
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: also has the ability to play in the slot. A
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: team that I have been looking at for Zay Flowers
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: a lot, I personally leaves a Flowers is going to
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: fall into that rain that twenty two I want to say.
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, you're looking at the Seahawks who need a
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: slot receiver at twenty and he kind of fits the profile.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: I think Josh Norris did a really good job explaining
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: how the Seahawks have not signed anyone to overtake Marquis Goodwin,
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: who was a pretty good I think he played over
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: four hundredsnas for the Seahawks last year and it was
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: a great role player for them. They've not signed anyone
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: to take that role. Jay Flowers could be the guy
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: there also, Jordan Addison, I think, but going to the Seahawks,
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: going to the Chargers at twenty one, the Vikings at
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: twenty three, that's kind of the range I'm expecting Zay
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: Flowers to fall into. Would it shock me if Zay
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: Flowers went ahead of Jackson Smith nidigmuad. No, absolutely not.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: I think that. I don't know. It's not something that
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: I bet, but it is. Yeah, he is trending up.
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: I totally agree with you. And not only is Jay
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: Flowers trending up, Simon, you may have noticed other receivers
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: who were projected to be picked prior to day Flowers,
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: or at least near them, like Quentin Johnson, have been
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: trending downwards. I think teams and this isn't players rising
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: on the team's boards. It's the media figuring out more
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: how the NFL really views these guys. As more boards
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: are made last week and going into this week, Quinn
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: Johnston is now viewed to be pick twenty five and
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: above or pick twenty five, pick thirty one at Kansas City.
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: So in fact, that was a bet I made. Is
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: that a matching team to player? I think Quentin Johnston
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: to Kansas City, I think I got it like plus
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: like three thousand odds, which I thought was generous, but
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: just because of their need for receiver. But anyway, No,
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: I think other receivers as they're trending downward, Jay Flowers
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: has been going upwards. So yeah, I like the bet.
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: It's not what I made personally, but I like that
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: you have some skin in the game there, because, yeah,
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: for all the reason I stated about JSN, I do
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: think some teams like the Patriots and Packers will like
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: him a lot. But if he falls past fourteen fifteen,
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: those would be the teams I would be scared off
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: if I were you when they were on the clock.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: I don't think Washington is going to take a receiver
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: at sixteen. I don't think Pittsburgh is going to take
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: a receiver. They have offensive tackle and cornerback issues that's
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: been o where all their visits are. Detroit at eighteen
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: probably defensive side of the ball. If I had to
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: say Tampa Bay at nineteen too, mini offensive tackle concerns.
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: They already have good receivers anyway. So now you're at Seattle.
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: Seattle could definitely take Zay Flowers over JSN. So yeah,
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: I envisioned the scenario again. I have JSN going I
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: think fourteen to my mott, and Flowers going either to
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: Seattle at twenty or I think Minnesota at twenty three.
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I could see it.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: We've got another pot of draft coming up on Thursday.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Is going to be on the pod with Vegas Refund
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: on Action Network Podcasts on Monday each draft season. Folks,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: we cannot get enough of the draft conversation. I really
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: want CJ. Shroud to go number one just because I
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: want Simon to win, because I root for my friends too.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: I want Nick to have the most accurate mock draft
• 42:24
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