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Best Bets for Week 14 College Football's Biggest Rivalries! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:01
Hello everybody, Welcome to Targeting Winners.
0:03
Eight week is upon us week everyone.
0:06
Best week of the year, I think even better than Championship
0:08
week. Joining me as always, we have
0:11
Pete from El Pico de Mexico. Pedro, how are you?
0:16
Now it's the week of the game. I'm nervous and excited at the
0:19
same time. Happy to be here.
0:22
Nice. Darren, Upstate New York, How
0:25
are you? Cold.
0:29
It's 85° and sunny here. Yeah, I was going.
0:30
To say you 2 wouldn't understand it's cold here but doing good.
0:35
Daughter came home from college yesterday.
0:36
Son should be here shortly and you know.
0:40
Work tomorrow is the best weekend of the year I think,
0:42
isn't it? What's that?
0:43
This is the best weekend of the year, isn't it?
0:45
I mean Thanksgiving, just like endless amounts of food and then
0:48
endless amounts of football. Awesome week, Awesome week.
0:52
Yeah, and the schedule's certainly way better than it was
0:55
last week, so. Last week of garbage.
0:56
It's a great week. Yeah, the couch is dreading my
1:00
imprint of my my Turkish. It's gonna be it's gonna be
1:04
parked there for like 9 hours. So it's.
1:07
Speaking of Speaking of garbage, you know, as we're recording
1:11
this, yeah, Bowling Green and UMass are are on television.
1:15
I I thought you were talking about my record last week, which
1:16
is O and three. Which is Corbin bro you.
1:19
You carried the show in 2024 man.
1:21
There will be no Pedro slander on today's video.
1:25
There, it's your current push here man, it's all you.
1:26
Guys know and you're going to bring up that game, I would have
1:28
made a bronze butt cheeks for that game, I mean.
1:34
Bowling Green and UMass do not deserve anything, even bronze.
1:36
It should be rusted, molded, you know?
1:41
Yeah, it's 21 nothing already as we speak in the second quarter.
1:45
Second quarter. Oh jeez.
1:47
Yeah. It's absolutely right.
1:50
Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan game, at least there's,
1:52
you know, Western Michigan wins. They're in the Mac title game.
1:55
So at least there's there's something on the line there.
1:59
Something. Yeah.
2:00
Wait for the Mac. To go out with a bang there
2:01
just. We love it though.
2:04
We. We.
2:05
Yeah, we do love it. That game I'd rather record
2:09
since we're getting ready for Turkey Day, so I'd rather be
2:13
doing that. Yeah, that's why we're doing
2:14
this and not watching Bowling Green.
2:15
You. We're fans, but we're.
2:20
Fans, even we. Have even we have limits?
2:23
Right. But you know what's sad?
2:28
The second we're done here, it's probably going to take me like
2:30
half hour to upload the video, so I'll probably be.
2:33
You'll be watching. You'll be watching.
2:35
Yeah, who are we kidding, Darren?
2:37
We're not kidding. I admit it.
2:39
Hi my name is Darren and I have a problem I.
2:44
Think we're all in that that boat here Hi Darren, how are you
2:47
I'm. Fine, my name is Darren.
2:50
I've been watching Bowling Green for 1/4 and A.
2:54
Half. Very unfortunate.
2:57
That's kind of like the guy that got kicked out of Guns and Roses
2:59
for doing too much drugs. Like that's that's that's the.
3:02
Problem. That's a real problem.
3:04
If you watch too much college football for this show, man, I
3:07
don't know. I am high on Mac football.
3:10
Guilt is charged. All right, so, well, we just do
3:16
the scramble and see what game we're going to do first or let's
3:19
do it. Yeah, let's roll.
3:25
What do we got here? Oh, Texas AM.
3:28
God. Is this an important game, Tim?
3:31
I haven't been. Not at all.
3:33
OK, I didn't. Think so?
3:36
Three massive future bets. 28 Nothing by the way.
3:41
Oh my God, Holy Green just scored again while we were
3:44
talking. Of course they did.
3:45
They'll probably score again the next. 2 minutes, they'll
3:47
probably score again before we're done with this game so.
3:51
The total is 43 1/2, so I'm just wondering if you know if they'll
3:54
hit this by halftime because they're well on their way.
3:58
Well, everything on the line in Austin, TX this week.
4:03
Texas does have a very good defense, you know, top three in
4:09
success rate and something in top ten in havoc.
4:13
I was noticing that's a that's a category I but I guess so Texas
4:17
is good at stopping consistent running games.
4:20
They're not so consistent with the chunk plays.
4:26
Fireworks I think are going to happen for this game.
4:29
The over under I believe is 51. I think I have them at 51.
4:34
I have I'm taking the over here. God, I'm room for A&M.
4:39
It's on the road. That's what scares me.
4:41
It's also a Friday game and I hate Friday games.
4:44
But yeah, I like Texas A and MI like that.
4:47
Taking that over is my official bet.
4:50
I believe the line was minus. What was it 6 1/2 for that one,
4:54
but 2 1/2? Let's let's under a few roll.
4:57
Yeah, but yeah, on the road Friday.
5:01
That all scares me. I like the over here hoping for
5:05
a big Marcel Reed game to end the year.
5:09
This is one of the games I was banking on when I made that
5:11
Heisman bet. They had Notre Dame in the
5:13
front, Texas in the back end, and hopefully he gets invited to
5:19
the Heisman ceremony in a couple weeks and hopefully this went
5:24
out of I think A&M might be in the game anyway, I think now.
5:30
If they if they lose, there's a scenario where.
5:32
They're not. Yeah, there is one wild
5:34
scenario, the Finebaum effect. Maybe we'll keep them out, but
5:39
yeah, so let's just hope, keep it on the field, keep it in
5:41
their own hands, hope they win the game.
5:43
But I'm batting over here. What are you guys thinking?
5:45
Scared to death. I, I, I'm just going to say I'm,
5:50
I'm pulling for you. But something just tells me,
5:54
man, this is not going to be easy.
5:56
I I can't put my finger on it. Yeah, the football.
6:04
Guys don't want me to have a nice thing that's.
6:06
It's not even that. It's just like, you know, I
6:08
talked about this when I when I gave out the the A&M South
6:12
Carolina over a few weeks ago. Which A&M defense is going to
6:16
show up? If the one that showed up
6:18
against Arkansas or South Carolina shows up, yeah, you're
6:21
over battle hit like midway through the third quarter and
6:24
I'd be worried about losing the game because Texas's defense
6:27
always seems to show up. So A&M is going to have to going
6:32
to have to show up here. But yeah, this game scares me.
6:34
I I wouldn't touch the aside on this one if I had to.
6:38
Theater. Yeah, I've got to say what I
6:41
said when I talked about Texas playing Georgia earlier this
6:44
year, which is stark. Cannot seem to scheme against
6:50
good teams. And so I like your bet here.
6:53
I actually like your team here because I think I think Texas is
6:58
going to have a problem with this team.
6:59
I do, I, I even at home, I think they're going to have a problem
7:02
with this team. I, I would not be surprised at
7:04
all if A&M went in there and beat them period, outright money
7:08
line beat them. I would not be surprised.
7:10
I think this Texas team has fundamental flaws when it comes
7:15
to playing good teams that can slow their offense down and can
7:22
get them into a slugfest, a close slugfest.
7:25
And I think that's what's going to happen here.
7:26
You have a close slugfest and I think that's going to be a
7:28
problem for Texas. So love the bet, love your team
7:32
here. I think this is this is ripe for
7:35
the picking for them. And as I said a couple weeks ago
7:38
as well, I think that this Texas thing is spiralling downhill.
7:42
And I think Sarc's time at Texas is coming to an end relatively
7:45
soon. And I think this is going to be
7:47
a nail in that coffin. So, and, and for somebody who
7:50
was speaking positively about Texas a year ago, that should
7:54
say something. So man, good bet.
7:57
I love it. I'm with you man.
7:59
All right, I don't know if that makes me feel good or not.
8:03
I don't know if it should either, but I'm with you.
8:06
Oh man, oh man, oh man, oh man. Let's see if we can find one of
8:10
someone here. I was here.
8:10
How about this one here? LSU taking on Oklahoma, Oklahoma
8:16
6, four and one against the spread.
8:17
LSU three and eight against the spread.
8:20
Who? Which one you guys put this one
8:22
in? We both have something on this
8:24
one. No, go ahead, Pete.
8:27
I'll go first. So I have clearly a total guy.
8:30
36 1/2 to me feels low. Not that either one of these
8:35
teams has been a scoring juggernaut, but 36 1/2 is a low
8:40
number. You know, I, I'm not expecting
8:42
some kind of scoring fest, but if you think about a like a
8:46
score or something like 24 to 13, you know, 20 to 17, which is
8:52
entirely possible in this case and something that we very
8:56
expected in this case, you know, that's an over, right?
8:59
I mean, to me, this, this paints over all day long.
9:02
I'd be afraid to bet the under on this thing 'cause this feels
9:05
like a backdoor cover on that over all day.
9:08
So to me, this is this is a soft over it.
9:10
It's an over. But you know, with just the way
9:13
these teams have been playing at this is like even just kind of a
9:16
mild game gets you there. It doesn't really take very much
9:20
to get there. Garbage time score, something of
9:23
that nature. If you look across Oklahoma's,
9:27
you know, even just throughout the year, averaging somewhere
9:30
around 24 points a game, which is what I would expect them to
9:32
get here. It just plays into this number
9:35
really nicely. So unless something goes really
9:39
weird and sideways, you know, I mean, look at the weather.
9:44
I mean 55° perfectly fine. Yeah, a little windy, but that's
9:47
that's OK, right. I'm not looking for a, you know,
9:50
a kind of a aired out fest here or something of that nature.
9:52
So I think it plays in perfectly nicely.
9:55
I mean, this game fits really nicely into an over here.
9:58
So I got 1 unit on the over of 36 1/2 and I I think this is a
10:02
really nice number. I really strongly considered a 2
10:05
unit play on this but I'm always doing doing a one unit.
10:08
So anyway that's my thoughts. One unit 36 1/2 over Darren
10:12
Floor is yours. As soon as you said 24 to 13, I
10:16
was completely on board because I am laying the 10 with Oklahoma
10:20
here. And yes, it does scare me with a
10:22
total of only 36 1/2 to lay 10. But you look at LSU two and one
10:27
since Kelly got fired. Nussmeyer probably gonna come
10:30
out on the first injury report tomorrow as questionable,
10:33
probably go to doubtful. I don't think he's suiting up at
10:36
all. And even if he was close to
10:39
healthy, why would you put him out there against this defense?
10:41
I mean, 41 sacks, their top five in the country, defensive
10:46
success rate, early downs and 3rd and 4th downs.
10:49
If you feeling frisky, I would take a look at maybe an Oklahoma
10:54
anytime defensive touchdown here and another reason I think
10:58
they're going to cover. I think in the second-half
10:59
Oklahoma is going to pull away here and and hit Pete's over
11:03
Oklahoma on design QB runs. They're the 12th most successful
11:06
team in the country. LSU at stopping those particular
11:10
plays. They are bad 75th in the country
11:14
so that they're not going to keep Matir down.
11:16
So if you can play player props. I'm not against the John Matir
11:20
over his rushing total either. I'm in New York.
11:22
I have no idea what that is, but if you're in a state that has
11:25
it, they give that a look as well.
11:28
You know, you get to Week 14. Motivation's a big thing.
11:30
I'm not really sure what LSU is playing for here.
11:33
They're seven and four. They're going to some mid level
11:35
bowl regardless. They don't really seem to be
11:38
playing for this interim coach. I mean, the most they've done is
11:40
23 points against Arkansas, who as we know, has one of the worst
11:43
defenses in the SEC, if not all of college football.
11:47
You know, nine against Bama, 13 against Western Kentucky last
11:50
week. I mean, this is an offense
11:52
that's struggling with Van Buren at the helm.
11:54
Oklahoma, everything to play for.
11:56
Currently looking at probably around an 8 seed in the latest
11:59
rankings. You know, they put an ass
12:01
whooping on the Tigers here. They're going to guarantee
12:03
themselves a home game in the first round.
12:04
So I'm looking for Oklahoma at home.
12:07
I'm assuming it's senior day. Last home game of the season. 24
12:11
to 13, maybe even a little bit low.
12:15
Yeah, I think if if Matir seems every game he's getting a touch
12:18
healthier and a little bit better completion percentage.
12:22
Not great last week, but he did run for 60 yards.
12:24
I expect him to to eclipse that total here.
12:27
I'm looking for something maybe like 31 to 13.
12:30
I I think Oklahoma's going to roll here.
12:32
So yeah, I do have one unit play Oklahoma Lane, the 10.
12:35
Love it. Yeah, they both sound good.
12:38
I mean, I don't know why most of my would even suit up at this
12:40
point. I mean, no, you don't want to
12:42
risk, you know, an elbow injury or anything like that, so.
12:47
Yeah, they didn't put him out there against Western Kentucky.
12:49
He's not coming out. He's not playing.
12:51
For this, you should be a top five pick.
12:53
Why? Why hurt yourself?
12:54
There's no reason to do that. So all right, well, let's just
12:58
keep this fun rolling. This is one of my favorite
13:00
games. I've been to this game once and
13:04
yeah, it's always a tight one. I saw in Madison.
13:08
So we got Wisconsin taking on Gophers 26° in snow.
13:14
Is there anything better for that game than that?
13:16
So this is going to be glorious. 3-7 and one against the spread
13:22
from Minnesota, Six and five for Wisconsin.
13:24
I believe this is Pete's one of yours.
13:26
Take the floor, Sir, of. Course it is.
13:28
This is like right in my wheelhouse.
13:30
This is Big 10 football in November.
13:32
Snow is flying Paul Bunyan's Axe game.
13:36
Two tunes. That I bet all year long.
13:40
Under, under, under individually.
13:42
You put them on the field together.
13:45
Oh, come on, This is an under all day long.
13:48
I, I considered a three unit play on this thing.
13:51
I'm only doing one 'cause I don't trust myself at this
13:53
point, 'cause that three-year has been so strange all over the
13:56
place. I don't trust anything at this
13:57
point. But I mean, honestly, I would
13:59
probably give a kidney for this thing.
14:01
This is an under all day long this year.
14:03
Who the hell knows. But I mean, these two teams, I
14:07
don't know how this doesn't go under.
14:09
Wisconsin can't score if you scored for them at times.
14:13
Minnesota is an under it. It's almost on meme at this
14:16
point, like Wisconsin, sorry, Minnesota under meme.
14:20
I mean, that's what it is. I mean, this is like a maybe a
14:23
2720 to 17 game, maybe maybe a 20 to 13 game.
14:28
I mean, it's going to be something like that.
14:29
I mean, this game is traditionally a snowy, not
14:33
slugfest, right? That's what they do.
14:36
So that's what it's going to be. That's what it always has been,
14:39
has been. That's what it's going to be.
14:41
And so that 37 1/2 is a, is a pipe dream.
14:44
I I don't know how they get to that number unless something
14:46
absolutely weird happens. Yeah, it could get to that
14:49
number. If it's so snowy that there's
14:51
just fumble all over the place and people are running back
14:55
fumbles like some kind of just oddball weird game, Fine, right.
14:59
We I have no control over that, that that's just weird.
15:00
But I mean, if it's if it's just a normal game where there's
15:03
running the ball and it's snowy, you know, it's going to be 20 to
15:06
13. It's an under all day long.
15:09
I don't even know what to say all about say about it because
15:11
these two teams are just screaming under.
15:13
So yeah, I I mean, I'm doing a one unit.
15:16
I really should do a 2 unit on this, but I didn't actually set
15:18
it up that way. So I'm just going to stay the
15:20
way I have this set up. 1 unit under 37 1/2 Darren.
15:26
This game makes Bowling Green UMass look like a New Year's Day
15:30
bowl. I I'm not sure I would watch
15:32
this if this was the only thing on television.
15:36
I would I would take Wisconsin the money line here if I if I
15:40
was going money line sprinkle because getting a point and a
15:42
half probably isn't going to come into play.
15:45
But Wisconsin's. Yeah, you know, ever since they
15:47
said, oh, we're going to keep fickle, they've been playing a
15:50
little bit better. But yeah, I even if I had money
15:54
on this, I'm not sure I would watch it.
15:56
I would just God, no. Yeah, ugly.
16:00
No, I can't No, I I literally want to go watch Bowling Green
16:03
and UMass because this, by the way, it's 28 to 7.
16:06
You think these? Two, my friend, you have a
16:07
problem. You have a serious problem.
16:09
You think these two teams are going to sniff 35 points in six
16:11
quarters, much less the two that Bowling Green and.
16:14
UMass Live updates this is. No.
16:17
I can't. I can't watch this.
16:20
I Yeah, I would rather watch Bowling Green, UMass.
16:22
This should be a total of like 27.
16:24
This is no, can't, can't. Interesting.
16:27
The winner of this game will take the lead in the series 64
16:31
to 63 and eight ties, so that's a pretty interesting.
16:36
It's a shame. That the prize aren't a thing
16:37
anymore because this screams like 10-10 and that's it.
16:40
It does it. Really.
16:42
Does it really? Does.
16:43
I mean God. That that number is ridiculously
16:48
high. To me it's like there's.
16:50
No, you're saying you like be on here.
16:52
That's how you really. I would I may sign off here and
16:55
bet that myself because terrible.
17:02
All right, who we got here we have oh, this is one of mine.
17:07
Hello. So all right, Utah, this is a
17:13
pretty interesting game. If if Texas Tech.
17:15
I believe if they were to lose and Utah wins and there is a way
17:24
they could back their way into this title game, I believe has
17:27
something to do with points scored in the division or
17:30
something like that with some weird divisional record or
17:35
something. I believe that's what I was
17:37
reading anyway. I'm sure it's wrong, but either
17:39
way, I like this. This is going to be a high
17:42
scoring game. Both teams like to swing it
17:44
around. Dan Pierce seems to be getting
17:47
better. He's been kind of asked at the
17:49
early part of the season, Utah, they're laying the 12 1/2.
17:53
And if I was going to bet on that, I would probably lay that
17:57
as well with some confidence. They're pretty, pretty
17:59
efficient. Kansas is, you know, Kansas.
18:04
So so I'm thinking this thing is going to be over pretty fast.
18:09
So I think it's 60 1/2. That's one of the higher overs
18:14
that I bet. I'm not really that concerned.
18:17
I'm thinking it's going to be, you know, something like a 4537
18:22
kind of thing. It's just going to be one of
18:23
those fireworks constantly. A couple big plays.
18:28
You know, Utah, you know, they score in bulk here.
18:30
They they might even get a defensive touchdown, a little
18:32
scoop and score action. So I am looking at this.
18:35
I like Utah, hopefully they some way somehow and get me a buyout
18:41
off of Hard Rock. But I'm not sure it's going to
18:43
happen. I think it's a pretty long shot,
18:45
but I like the over here 60 1/2 with Utah and Kansas.
18:52
What do you think? Yeah, I can't.
18:55
I can't argue that. I mean, I, I playing totals
18:58
mostly. I mean, I think I'll probably go
18:59
over as well. The weather's not really going
19:01
to be a factor. So it should play into both
19:03
these teams scoring. I, I would, I would expect a lot
19:05
of scoring here. So that's not that high of a
19:08
number for two teams that tend to score a lot.
19:10
So yeah, I mean, I didn't dig too deeply into this, but my gut
19:14
would say that's that roughly 60 number.
19:17
Yeah, I would probably lean over.
19:19
Yeah, I mean, didn't Utah play in a game I had a total of 90
19:23
last week, like 5147 or something like that?
19:27
They obviously have no problem scoring and no problem
19:30
preventing, you know, another team from putting up 50 point.
19:33
I mean, yeah, this. I agree with this too.
19:35
As soon as you started talking, I couldn't remember what you
19:37
played, but I was like, I hope you took over because I think
19:40
that's where I would lead. So we're all on the same page,
19:42
which means 2413 Utah. Yeah, 1910, here we go.
19:47
Yeah, not even close. So, and has there been another
19:52
score in the Bowling Green game here, Darren?
19:55
Allow me to check while we're I. Mean it must be by.
19:59
It's 28 to 7. So yes, UMass has put a
20:03
touchdown on the board. We're at 35 and counting right
20:06
the two-minute warning in the second quarter.
20:10
Ample time to go vomit. 2 minute time out.
20:13
You can't call it 2 minute warning.
20:14
It's not the NFL. I'm sorry, view has been upheld.
20:18
It's not confirmed anymore. It's upheld.
20:20
So yes, I forgot the rule. My bed.
20:24
So now we got Iowa, Nebraska. Oh, it's gonna be another cold
20:28
120 mile an hour winds. This is another one of mine and
20:31
you know that. It is.
20:33
Another two teams, especially Iowa, who I always bet under,
20:36
and Nebraska since, well, obviously I also also been going
20:40
under on them. Yeah.
20:43
So questionable weather, windy day 39 1/2, the number that I
20:50
got when I when I play this. Yeah.
20:53
I mean, this is another game that's screaming under to me.
20:58
Iowa's defense still remains pretty good.
21:01
And Iowa, early in the season, they were scoring.
21:04
That seems to have tailed out a little bit.
21:07
Yeah. I mean, this is another game
21:08
that screen that that speaks to a like a 20 to 1721 to 1723 to
21:13
14 kind of game, all of which are safely under.
21:17
So this is just another game that I actually considered a 2
21:20
unit play on this under it just these it's oddly these two big
21:24
10 games this week. Both of these kind of fit the
21:27
profile of what I love for under games.
21:31
So both of them right clear, clear to me under.
21:34
So I'll probably lose them both the way this way this this year
21:37
is going. But I mean to me this is like a
21:39
absolute perfect profile of an under for me.
21:43
So one unit under 39 and a. Half.
21:46
I agree these two quarterbacks have been cheeks.
21:50
I was watching some of the Nebraska Penn State game.
21:52
I don't know who that QB from Nebraska is, but they've got
21:54
some problems when he's running the offense and handicapping.
21:58
Note, going into the offseason, any time a highly touted FCS guy
22:01
comes to an FBS program, it does not matter because Gronowski's
22:05
been ass ever since he stepped foot in Iowa.
22:07
So yeah, this would this screams another like 2117.
22:12
I it's God, when did the Big 10 become so unwatchable?
22:16
What the hell? Well, we have another Big 10
22:18
game coming up that is going to be incredibly wild, but these
22:21
first two ain't it. No wonder, oh gosh, wonder if
22:26
people have an opinion on that game.
22:28
So that's. What we vomit already?
22:29
I have salt and vinegar chips nearby for when he.
22:31
Gets salt. So we're going to do this game
22:36
here. We got Boston College and.
22:37
They get uglier. So funny you bring that up about
22:47
this game. For this game I'm going to bring
22:49
up a couple extra graphics we have.
22:51
This game falls in for the snooze fest of the week.
22:54
This game is going to be absolutely terrible.
22:57
I will not be watching. I did bet but I'm not going to
22:59
watch. Hardly did any research on his
23:02
bet at all. Folks, I just want to let you
23:04
know this game is also I'm going to do bet the money line here.
23:09
I got Syracuse at plus 130 on this.
23:14
Yeah, it's a money line sprinkle.
23:15
Here we are. I mean, I'm thinking Boston
23:18
College the night before. They're definitely going to
23:20
break curfew and go to the turning stone.
23:22
They're going to be at the blackjack table.
23:23
They'll be shooting craps on the roulette wheels.
23:25
They're going to be doing anything other than getting
23:27
ready for this game. It's the last place they want to
23:29
be is Syracuse. So I mean, they rather, you
23:32
know, so, you know, I I think this is just going to be one of
23:36
those go through the motion games.
23:37
I like Syracuse at home, just kids being, you know, they're,
23:43
they are kids. I know they're getting paid, but
23:44
you know, they're still young and dumb and they're going to be
23:46
like, hey, this game totally. They know the game's going to
23:49
suck too. I think just going to run out to
23:51
the turning Stone or whatever strip club is there or whatever
23:54
and just have a night of it. And just kind of like Varsity
23:58
Blues. They show they come up the next
23:59
day and just get their asses kicked.
24:00
So this is what I'm expecting. No statistical data to back this
24:05
up whatsoever other than they're young, they're stuck in Syracuse
24:09
around Thanksgiving, and they'd rather not be there after.
24:13
I believe there are one in 10. AM I I read that right?
24:16
Or two in nine at least. So yeah, I like Syracuse here.
24:21
Money line. Any thoughts on this?
24:23
This. I think the Bowling Green game
24:24
is better than this one. Bowling Green.
24:27
Game has been better than like three of the five games we've
24:29
covered already. I didn't spend 10 seconds of my
24:32
life looking at this. I didn't.
24:34
You're the right game this weekend, so I'm out.
24:36
I don't. Know, I mean your analysis is I
24:38
don't know if they'd be. At the strip club then watching
24:44
this stupid I would. Too.
24:46
But yeah, I don't know if anybody watched Syracuse last
24:49
week. They played the fighting Marcus
24:50
Freeman's. Yeah, Notre Dame had 21 points
24:54
on the board before the offense even got out on the field.
24:58
They had 35 points after the offense was on the field for 36
25:02
seconds. I mean, Syracuse is starting a
25:05
lacrosse player at quarterback that that tells you all you need
25:08
to know. And Boston College actually was
25:10
playing well early in the season.
25:13
If Syracuse covers here for Tim, I think Bill O'Brien gets fired
25:16
Sunday morning. Yeah, for sure.
25:20
Couldn't happen to a better guy. He's.
25:21
Agreed SO. All right.
25:26
Can we find a game that doesn't suck because.
25:28
Literally the. Most depressing show we've ever
25:32
done, I mean. This is.
25:34
Like a week 13 schedule. I'm going to start crying this
25:39
one. Look at that that that that the
25:41
cat is chasing the. Yeah, and ironically, Tim set
25:44
that up perfectly because this is my only other bed of the day.
25:47
I laid a unit. Missouri laying 2 1/2 over
25:50
Arkansas here couple weeks ago. You guys may remembered I bet on
25:54
Missouri to cover the seven over Mississippi State.
25:57
And my analysis was simple. Just run the friggin ball
26:00
because Mississippi State has the worst rush defense in the
26:02
SEC. Well, guess who's got the second
26:05
worst rush defense in the SEC? You are correct, Arkansas.
26:09
So Ahmad Hardy, you had 300 yards two weeks ago, it's
26:13
Mississippi State 200. Distinct possibility here.
26:19
And Privula came back. He went from doubtful to
26:22
questionable to playing. Don't know why he would throw
26:25
him out there against the Sooners, but at least he's got a
26:27
game back under his belt. That's only going to help be a
26:29
little more balanced here. But I don't even know why you
26:32
have this guy throw 15 passes. Hardy is going to feast here.
26:36
Missouri's defense actually just played really, really well this
26:38
year. I may repeat that was your only
26:39
concern when you bet their win total, But they've been playing
26:42
lights out. Yeah, I I just don't see how
26:45
Arkansas is going to stay close. 2 1/2 seems like a a gift, and
26:49
it is heavily juiced. All the books were like -115 -,
26:53
118, something like that. But I'd rather do that than let
26:56
this get to 3. But this is a this is a Ahmad
26:59
Hardy game, man. There, there's no reason to
27:01
throw this ball more than 15 times.
27:04
Arkansas came. Lamad Hardy, that's for sure.
27:07
Yeah, I mean, this is this was almost a 2 unit play for me as
27:10
well, but something just yeah, something just told me.
27:14
Do you know what? Just stick to one.
27:17
But yeah, I I don't see how Missouri doesn't win this one by
27:19
at least 10. I mean, Arkansas's defense is
27:21
terrible. Agree 100% that that defense is
27:24
awful. They're they're going to run all
27:26
of that defense. So 100% on board.
27:29
Nice. Yeah, I agree.
27:32
That's all. I think we're doomed again.
27:34
I think not much We. Can do well you know I got a
27:37
couple stats that I can throw in if.
27:38
You want. More more intense and just run
27:41
the friggin ball early. Down success rate.
27:44
The Missouri offense is 40th in the country.
27:46
Arkansas's defense is 127th. What does that mean?
27:48
Third of those shorts, if you even get to 3rd down at all.
27:51
Third and 4th down, Success rate.
27:53
Missouri offense 23rd in the country.
27:55
Arkansas's defense 123rd in the country.
27:57
Missouri should not leave the field without scoring A
27:59
touchdown, at least on five drives here.
28:01
This. I mean, Arkansas cannot stop
28:03
anybody. And it makes sense.
28:05
You suck on 1st and 2nd down. Of course you're going to suck
28:07
on 3rd down because teams are looking at third and one third
28:09
and two as opposed to 3rd and eight or third and 9.
28:12
I don't know what I'm odd Hardy's yardage prop is, but
28:14
it's probably high and it's probably juice to the over.
28:18
I would play it. This is a.
28:20
Feast all day long. Great, great bet all day long.
28:23
I mean, and see, he only got 57 yards against Oklahoma last
28:25
week. Yeah, he's, yeah, he's hitting
28:28
200 I think. That number is way short.
28:31
That number is way short. I thought so too.
28:33
I was just like do I want to do 2 units on this?
28:35
And I'm like Nope, something something is telling me not to
28:37
but let's run the ball man. That's it.
28:40
Simple analysis. Right.
28:44
All right. These last two are technically
28:46
with Pete. This is where the Pete's boy
28:48
Rich Rod here, I got this. A series is tied with West
28:51
Virginia, Texas Tech seven to seven be 45°, which it's about
28:57
25 to 30° less than it would be in Texas.
29:00
The line is 24 1/2 I believe. I'm going with your boy this
29:05
time, Pete. First thing you got to remember,
29:08
Big 12 dumpster fires, all kinds of craziness can happen.
29:12
They're going to be at home. It's going to be 25 to 30°
29:15
colder. They seem to be playing a little
29:17
bit better since the trash game that we saw them back in
29:20
October. They've come come around.
29:23
They seem to be able to score a lot.
29:25
Got what is the over under on this one?
29:28
Can you? Is that 60 I should have you
29:31
have? 53 1/2 up on the top, is that
29:34
correct? Oh.
29:36
Wow. I don't that's correct.
29:37
I don't I got to pull it. Yeah, that's what I'm saying
29:40
too. That's what I'm saying too.
29:42
That's a. Low.
29:42
That's a low number. That is low.
29:45
Stand about that too. I might do a 2 unit play on the
29:48
over while we're sitting here talking, but I know I I saw the
29:52
24 1/2. I was thinking, you know, I
29:55
would love for West Virginia to win this game, but I don't think
29:58
they're going to win this game, but I think they're going to
30:00
keep it closer, a lot closer than that.
30:02
I mean, my initial thought was like, you know, 31, you know,
30:06
3121, something like that. So maybe even 3117.
30:10
So I like West Virginia with the the 24 1/2 here.
30:13
Rich Rod, hopefully he comes through for me.
30:15
And Pete, what do you think about your boy here?
30:19
I love my boy here. I mean, they're they're probably
30:21
not going to win this game. I mean they they don't have.
30:23
Talent. It'd be nice.
30:25
To your point, right, are they going to score a couple
30:27
touchdowns at home? Yeah, they are, right.
30:29
So that over is really sweet and compelling, right.
30:32
So love that bear. I love that over there because
30:35
because of that, because, yeah, Texas Tech is going to score.
30:38
Rich Rod is going to is going to fire back.
30:40
He's going to pull out his bag of tricks like he does.
30:42
And they've been playing better. They're going to score a couple
30:45
touchdowns. Heck, they may score 3 at home.
30:47
Yeah, they may still, they may still lose by 20 or something
30:50
that that could very easily happen.
30:51
But that over is very tasty and the more fun thing, talk about
30:56
my boys. Wait till that portal opens
30:58
pretty soon here and see what my boy brings in there 'cause it's
31:01
going to be really interesting going forward.
31:02
But love that bet that over. It's really enticing.
31:05
If you're going to play that 2 unit and I might join you on
31:08
that, that's pretty interesting. I looked at this game and my
31:13
first thought was this game screams backdoor West Virginia
31:16
cover. I just see Texas Tech rolling
31:20
up, getting their, you know, clinching their spot in the Big
31:22
12 title game, getting up like 4113.
31:25
Here comes West Virginia with like a minute and a half to go,
31:27
just getting some nonsense. Touchdown to.
31:29
Make it 4120. I it just as soon as I saw
31:33
that's the first thing that hopped in my mind.
31:35
Backdoor cover. Love that, right?
31:38
That third touchdown late in the game?
31:40
Exactly Texas Tech. 'S got like 11 fans playing
31:43
deep. This just screams backdoor
31:45
cover. Tim hasn't had a nice backdoor
31:48
cover win in a while, so I. Think I'm one and three with
31:50
backdoor covers here I. Think you're about to hit two
31:53
and three man because this game just screams 1.
31:56
Well, I mean Texas Tech. Pulls away.
31:57
If they're playing the Big 12 title game, nobody of importance
32:00
is going to be out there on the field.
32:01
Nope, absolutely not. I do want to let you know I did
32:04
just bet 2 units on the over on that game as well.
32:06
So I don't I really shouldn't have my phone this close because
32:10
I'm liable to put a bet in at any given time.
32:13
But yes, I did bet on the over here 53 1/2 total and I.
32:19
Got to update the slide. Well, I'm not right.
32:22
You know, we can do. We'll still use the one that we
32:26
have. Is that the end of the at the
32:28
end of the show? I'll add.
32:29
In I'll get paid enough for this.
32:30
Yeah, Secretary's week. You better Take Me Out to lunch.
32:33
Bastard, I will buy you flowers. That's fine too, by the way.
32:36
It's 28 to 14. The over is only a point and a
32:43
half away from hitting, so they've already outscored
32:49
anything that Iowa and Nebraska are going to do this week
32:52
because they're not. Even both games combined.
32:54
It's combined. All right, well, we got one game
32:58
left. I don't know if anyone would be
33:00
watching this, the little game. I don't know if anyone's heard
33:04
of this rivalry. This is Ohio State going to
33:09
Michigan, 30° and snow. Another perfect day for this
33:13
game at its usual time slot. We're talking Saturday, we're
33:17
talking noon, we're talking hate week.
33:19
And the hate doesn't get much bigger than this one.
33:22
Ohio State 91 and one against the spread this year, and
33:26
Michigan is four and seven. I think Pete had a ban on this,
33:31
is that correct? I'm already angry.
33:33
Yeah. Jesus Christ, I I am sitting on
33:39
2 schools of thought here. Of course it's the the hated,
33:42
the hated team, which I would like to pummel every single time
33:47
we play them. So of course I would love to see
33:49
them slaughter them. We're not going to that that I
33:55
just do not. I don't see that in the cards,
33:56
right. Our offense has not been good
33:58
enough. Our defense has been there and
34:00
not so I don't I don't think we can beat them like we have the
34:05
past number of years here. I I, I, I think we're ripe for
34:08
the losing. That said, it's at home.
34:12
It's snowy. This game traditionally has been
34:15
a slugfest, so I expect it to remain close regardless of other
34:22
issues that are in play here. So 10, I actually got 10 1/2.
34:27
That little hook was really interesting to me, which is why
34:31
I jumped on it. So I took Michigan and the 10
34:34
1/2. And as everybody knows who
34:36
listens to this thing, I only play totals.
34:40
This is an exception because it's Michigan, because it's this
34:43
game, right? So why I'm playing something
34:45
different? I, I am a bit nervous for this
34:49
game. I'm playing this game only
34:50
because it's a hunch only because it's Michigan, only
34:53
because it's this game only, all because all those other reasons,
34:55
right? I didn't need to do a bunch of
34:57
research 'cause I know these teams do well, I'm a little, I
35:01
am a little concerned about this game.
35:03
I'm a little concerned that it could come off the rails.
35:05
And that's the other school of thought with me, 'cause I spent
35:08
time in the last couple of weeks and actually more than that,
35:11
talking about my dislike of our coaching staff at the moment and
35:15
my displeasure with the the fact that Underwood has not been
35:19
developed the way I think you should have been.
35:21
So I would like to see them be ushered out and see a new
35:25
coaching staff be brought in. So, I mean, would I cry a river
35:31
if they got pummeled here, other than the fact that being
35:34
pummeled by the Buckeyes is the worst thing that could possibly
35:37
happen to you as a whole? So that is the issue, right?
35:41
Like I, if I knew, if I knew it would get him fired, I would
35:49
swallow the pill and I'd be fine.
35:53
If I knew for sure that it would get him fired, I'd say, you know
35:56
what? Beat us by 40, kill us at home.
36:00
But I don't even know that would be the case.
36:02
We could still maybe lose by a bunch and he wouldn't get fired,
36:05
which would be bad, right? So, because I don't know that,
36:11
of course I want us to be competitive.
36:13
Shit, I'd love us to win here. I don't think we're capable.
36:17
I honestly don't. I don't think we are the
36:19
offensive capability to win this game.
36:22
I think our defense will hold us in there, but I think eventually
36:26
they'll get back against the wall 'cause our offense doesn't
36:28
have the ability to sustain drives.
36:30
So our defense will get tired, right?
36:32
And that's what's going to happen.
36:34
They're going to break down, they're going to get tired.
36:36
That's going to be a problem. Do I think we can keep it within
36:40
1010 1/2? I hope so.
36:43
So that's why I'm making this bet because I this is a, this is
36:45
a hope and dream bet. I hope so.
36:47
But I would not be surprised if we lost by more than this.
36:50
So I wouldn't suggest anybody else follow me on this bet.
36:53
This is a hope and dream bet. So I'm taking Michigan and the
36:57
10 1/2 here. Obviously I'm watching this
37:00
thing because this game means a lot to me every year, but we're
37:04
due for a loss anyway. So I'm not going to cry over if
37:07
we lose like a normal game, we lose like by 10 or 12 or 15 or
37:12
something. Fine, I'm not going to cry over
37:14
we're due a loss. Hell, they should have beat us
37:16
last year, right? So we're due a loss.
37:18
I'm perfectly fine with that. So I don't know.
37:22
So yeah, I'm I'm placing 1 unit 10 1/2 taking Michigan.
37:26
I am very unsure about this, but yeah, I I would love in my back,
37:33
back of my head to see a massacre and I'd love to see a
37:36
new coaching staff, but I'm not sure it's going to happen.
37:40
So that those are my thoughts. So my actual bet is Michigan
37:44
taking the 10 1/2 one unit. I'm moving on.
37:48
I would love nothing more than Michigan to win this game, if
37:52
for no other reason, see Dave Gordon, we get on there and just
37:54
troll Ohio State like he always does.
37:56
He gets puts on that that Michigan crown and everything.
37:58
He's like, can't beat Michigan. So.
38:02
But yeah, in this rivalry, I'm always Michigan.
38:06
So it's been that way forever. I don't think I've ever rooted
38:09
for Ohio State. I think I rooted.
38:10
I rooted from when they played Miami 20 years ago in that title
38:13
game when Miami got screwed and it was awesome.
38:16
But other than that, you know, I'm always against Ohio State.
38:20
So yeah, I hope it works out for you.
38:22
I think it can. I think this game's going to be
38:23
a lot. If it's if Michigan doesn't win
38:25
outright, it's I think it's going to be a closer game, maybe
38:29
by three or four points. So yeah, I like to bet Darren,
38:32
what do you think? Yeah, I mean, at 10 1/2, I would
38:35
be on Michigan as well. I mean, Pete, do you know the
38:37
status of the running backs from Michigan?
38:40
Hanes and. I don't they have.
38:42
They have been very secretive like that.
38:44
This week is like this. Whole.
38:46
Strategic BS thing where nobody says anything so you would you
38:52
wouldn't know. You'll never know.
38:54
Yeah. I mean, I kind of was leaning
38:55
the under here. I think 44 1/2 is a little too
38:58
high. I thought his name.
38:59
OK, yeah, I thought if those Michigan running backs are
39:01
healthy, I I don't see a scenario where they're going to
39:04
try and let Bryce Underwood win this game by chucking 25 passes.
39:09
The Ohio State defense could probably feast, but you know
39:12
what? So could Michigans.
39:13
I mean, I, you know, you don't know the status of Jeremiah
39:16
Smith and Carnell Tate either. I mean, it's just, it almost
39:20
feels like you're going in blind, you know, whichever way
39:22
you roll. But yeah, I just, I just think
39:27
the defenses are going to dominate here, which why the 10
39:29
1/2? That little bit of hook like
39:30
pizza that that's huge. I I don't think this game gets
39:35
over the 44 1/2 of if I had to go anywhere, I would go under
39:40
here. I mean, I would try and wait
39:41
until, you know, see who's healthy first, but I'm on the
39:46
other. Which is odd that I that I
39:48
didn't that I went away from the total on this game 'cause
39:50
honestly this would be an under for me.
39:52
But I was like, that book was so enticing to me.
39:55
So I don't know, but I. Agree with you absolutely.
39:57
How to play the numbers man, I mean.
40:00
If it snows like hell and it could snow like hell, that'd be
40:03
great. That's the best thing that could
40:04
happen for this game. Let.
40:05
Exactly. Well, all right, boys, let's
40:11
move in. Let's start.
40:12
Hit the RPO segment. Darren, take us through it.
40:15
All right, your only Thanksgiving Day, Navy.
40:18
Your only Thanksgiving Day game, I should say, for college Navy
40:20
getting 5 1/2 at Memphis, total of 58 1/2 ten.
40:24
We'll start with you. Any thoughts?
40:27
If I bet on anything, I like the over here, but I like with the
40:32
offenses look, especially with Memphis.
40:33
So I would lean towards the over.
40:36
Pete. I don't hate the Navy.
40:38
Plus 5 1/2 here. I think Horvath plays.
40:42
I agree with that. If he does, I think Navy 5 1/2
40:44
is an excellent play for Thursday night.
40:47
Ole Miss Lane Kiffin, where are you going to be Saturday
40:52
afternoon? Right now, laying Steven in the
40:54
Egg Bowl against Mississippi State.
40:57
Total of 62 1/2. Pete, we'll start with you
41:00
because I know both you guys love you some Ole Miss.
41:03
Oh, he goes out with a bang. He scores 1000 points.
41:05
I lay those points all day long. Tim, I know it's a pass because
41:11
it's Lane Kiffin, but I'll give you the chance to.
41:13
Lane Kiffin equals pass possible money line Sprinkle here.
41:17
Let's interesting. All right, Georgia lying almost
41:23
2 touchdowns against Georgia Tech total 59 1/2.
41:26
This game is in Atlanta. I believe these teams went what,
41:29
8 overtimes last year? Georgia seems to be round into
41:33
form 13 1/2. Is that too high?
41:35
I think it might be. Tim, what are you doing?
41:40
If I were to bet this Georgia -13 1/2 Georgia Tech's been not
41:46
the the Tech we've they've been at the early part of the season.
41:49
So I like Georgia here, cover on that. 8.
41:54
Yeah, Georgia, I mean, the logic speaks to lighting the points,
41:58
but man, these teams, teams play close.
42:00
So I would think about taking those points just because these
42:02
teams tend to play close. Yeah, I agree with you, Miami.
42:08
Are we going to have another Mario Cristobal moment here?
42:12
Laying 7 at Pittsburgh? Total of 50 1/2.
42:15
Pete, what do you think? I'm not a pit believer.
42:17
I think Miami's going to fire Mama.
42:19
Honestly I would live with 7. Yeah.
42:23
I am upset that this game is being played at noon and not at
42:26
7:30 at night. The high is going to be 36 at
42:30
night. I think the high was somewhere
42:32
around 28. I was hoping for 9°.
42:34
With freezing rain. There is a chance Miami could
42:38
still make the playoffs we're talking about.
42:39
I'm hoping it puts the dagger in it and ends it.
42:43
So yeah, I'm hoping it's somehow the forecast for tonight creeps
42:48
up into the day, gets into the 20s somehow, and Pittsburgh
42:52
takes it out. But I like the over 15 1/2 looks
42:55
nice. Yeah, I went back and forth on
42:57
this game. Like Pete said, this is a game
42:59
Miami really should roll if they want to get in.
43:01
They need a big win here because it's also a game where Crystal
43:05
Ball could totally F his team's CFP chances.
43:09
Neither outcome would surprise me, so I am running out the door
43:13
of my local sports book and not even touching this one.
43:16
Clemson getting three points at South Carolina, Total of 46 1/2.
43:22
Jane, I know you love love you some Dabo Sweeney.
43:25
I do, and like he did a few weeks ago with Louisville, I
43:29
think he could dabo this up a little bit.
43:32
I think he could go in there and win.
43:34
I would take Clemson in the three.
43:35
They might actually win outright.
43:37
Yeah, money line sprinkle for me.
43:39
I'd take Clemson, Pete. You know what?
43:42
Why not South Carolina at home? Kentucky the inspired Kentucky
43:47
Wildcats getting three at Louisville, total of 46 1/2.
43:50
Louisville's been a dumpster fire.
43:52
There are a lot of people, a lot of starters not playing this
43:55
game for them. Because of that, I would take
43:57
the three with Kentucky Pete. Same.
44:01
I mean, I typically like this Louisville team, but with that,
44:03
with that issue, yeah, no. Yeah, because of everybody with
44:06
all the starters, I would just pass on it all together and
44:09
leave it alone because even with the the over under, you know, it
44:13
looks sort of over, but you never know what's going to
44:14
happen with who's going to be playing.
44:15
So I'll just pass on it all together.
44:18
The Ducks laying 7 at Washington, total of 51 1/2.
44:21
Jim, what do you got? Oh love me some Washington.
44:24
Take the over. Oregon equals over 51 1/2 Take
44:28
the over. Wait.
44:30
I mean agree over over and this is great, but watch out for
44:32
Washington at home and they can be dangerous.
44:35
Yep, it's an underrated home field advantage they have.
44:37
And I looked at that and then I, I double checked DraftKings.
44:39
I'm like, did I put 51 1/2? Is that correct?
44:42
It was correct. I think this is low as well.
44:45
Here's my oh God damn it, I'll make another bet.
44:52
The poppy of Mafia rolling into Tennessee, their last chance of
44:55
trying to make a case for the committee getting 2 1/2 at
44:58
Tennessee, total of 65 1/2. Pete, what do you think?
45:02
Man, I think they're going to try to make a case here.
45:04
So I like that 2 1/2. I like to see them give it a go.
45:07
So it'll be interesting. It'll be close, Jim.
45:09
Yeah, I'm. Going to stick with Pavia Mafia
45:13
just because last week was Senior Day and Theo Vaughn went
45:17
out on the field with Diego, Pavia's mom.
45:20
That's great. Just because of that, I love me
45:25
some Miranda about here. I take the 2 1/2.
45:27
Yeah, I don't trust either team here.
45:30
I'm not. I wouldn't touch this one and
45:32
the Iron Bowl where crazy stuff happens, the kick 6 and all
45:37
kinds of nonsense. Alabama laying 6 at Auburn.
45:40
Ashton Daniels announced today as the starter for Auburn so
45:44
they can protect Deuce. Knight ran for like 800 yards
45:47
against Mercer last week, but he will not be playing.
45:50
It'll be back to Ashton Daniels. Tim.
45:52
Oh, Tim's still betting. Pete, what do you?
45:55
Think Nah Bama all day. Yeah, I, I, I agree.
45:59
I just, you know, they, I think if they, I believe they win and
46:04
they're in the SEC title game. So I don't think they're going
46:09
to leave anything to chance here.
46:10
I think if they get the chance to roll, they are going to roll.
46:13
Yes, I agree. Alabama.
46:15
OK, we're in agreement a lot this week.
46:17
This show sucked. Oh thanks, that kind of sucks
46:25
too. That's like the only time you've
46:27
had it this year. Stop complaining.
46:28
Hell is that guy? Oh jeez, you should be fired.
46:34
I be rip your picks down there. All right, well, here's my
46:37
losing picks for the week. So on Friday, Iowa, Nebraska
46:41
under 39 1/2. I mean, so that one, Wisconsin
46:44
and Minnesota under 37 1/2, as I mentioned, those are two.
46:48
Absolutely perfect unders to me. LSU, Oklahoma over 36 1/2 and
46:55
then the game Michigan over Ohio State taking that 10 1/2 points.
47:00
Those are my best for the week. Right, I've got Texas A&M and
47:04
Texas over 51 1/2. I also have Utah and Kansas over
47:09
60 1/2. I have West Virginia plus 24 1/2
47:14
against Texas Tech and I also put in a 2 unit play of over 53
47:18
1/2 for that game. I have Syracuse money line plus
47:22
130 over Boston College and as of 15 seconds ago I have the
47:27
Oregon Washington. 2 units over, 51 1/2 Oregon equals over.
47:36
I've heard. This week.
47:37
And I'm disappointed in myself. Tim, are you making like a 7th
47:40
or 8th bet or should I just RIP my 2 off while you?
47:44
No, I'm good. I'm, I think I'm good.
47:45
I'm going to throw my phone across the room.
47:48
There you go, that'll save. You.
47:50
All right, I'm taking the Sooners despite the low total of
47:53
36 1/2. I think the offense comes
47:56
together. Here I am laying the 10, taking
47:58
them to cover against LSU and Missouri.
48:02
I'm on Hardy -2 1/2 over Arkansas.
48:05
Run the ball, That's it. Run the ball.
48:08
Run the damn ball the damn ball All right, everybody that's
48:12
going to wrap up this episode of hate week here for targeting
48:16
winners. Thank you for watching.
48:18
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48:33
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48:37
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48:40
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