Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

Transcript

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All system's gone clear. You lift up.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: What is going on everybody. Hope everybody having a great week.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: If you're not having a great week, you probably will
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: be because Saturday UFC three twenty eight one of the
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: best cards of the year. I did say that for
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: UFC three twenty seven, and I mean it absolutely lived
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: up to the hype. So if this card lives up
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: to the hype, it is going to be phenomenal for DFS.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Thirteen fights, two five round fights, two title fights, that
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: equals nominal, phenomenal prize pools, massive two hundred thousand to
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: first in the flag Ship. I am super pumped for
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: this week. Comes out Jamaiah Sean Strickland to Sewer, Tyra,
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: Joshua Van and a whole lot of great fights top
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: to bottom. Said to talk through him with you, Big Marley,
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: how's your week going with your thoughts on this card?
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's going well. Great card. I think it's gonna
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: be a tricky DFS card. I think a lot of
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: the ownership is gonna be focused in uh in the
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: top half of this card, But I'm excited for it.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: Both title fights are gonna be good ones, and really
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: the Tyra Van fight. This might be the first mini
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: fights of these guys because they're so young. They're gonna
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: be at the top of that division for so long.
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: So I'm looking forward to this one. But chamaiav is
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: gonna smash.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Tamaia's gonna smash. I do agree with that. Some
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: BS stuff though. Kicking his knee, kicking his leg. I
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: don't know if you saw that at the face offs
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: not too long ago. Yeah, it gave him when they
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: faced off, give him like a teed kick, except got
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: him in the leg. And yeah, I mean it could
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: have easily buckled his knee and towards ACL or something.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: It looks like it is fine. The line has not
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: moved since then. But that's some BS stuff. YSM. What's
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: going on? Always in here? Best card of the year,
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: I agree. I thought UFC three twenty seven was great.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: That Hulk It Blades fight, It's hard to beat that
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: top to bottom. That card was phenomenal. But this card
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: looks great as well. We got Cameron in here, Michael
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: Peterson here as well. Appreciate everyone hanging out again. All
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: we ask as always is the like button and the
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: subscribe button. It helps us out A ton broad slate
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: overview for me again, two five run fights obviously gonna
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: get a ton of ownership, is chamayah, And then the
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Tyra Van fight is going to be very popular. I'd
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: think that Van will be more popular than Tyra when
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: it's all said and done. Let me check quick if
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: we have it that way. We do have it that way.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Big Marley does as well, and that's just because of
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: the range that he's in. In that seventy five hundred range,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: it's a lot easier to find pivots near the eight
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: high eight k's low nine k's than it is the
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: low seven k's. Thirteen fights are expected to finish as well,
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: just like excuse me last week, I believe so ten
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: of thirteen fights expected to finish two five round fights.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: That means a lot of big scores is needed, is
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: how I'm looking at this. Yeah. Press conference was definitely hype. Yeah,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: I mean Tomaja is an absolute junkyard dog. Definitely excited
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: to watch this one on Saturday. Top to bottom though,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Langley in here, hope you're doing well. Any broadside overview
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: for you, Big Marley before we go fight by fight.
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the two title fights in the mid
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: range just soak up a lot of ownership. So if
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: you can get outside of that, you're already getting different,
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: I think. But looking forward to talking it.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: Out with you. Yeah, I mean, just like he was
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: talking about the mid range too. Just gonna go top
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: to bottom. This is a stone we're sharing over here.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: This does get color coded and completely filled in tomorrow.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Got to be a premium member for that. Projections, Ownership,
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: Core Report, Fan Duel DraftKings cash on there as well.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Slate Plan breaking down every single fight and the Slate
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: overview fight rankings Big Marley does you can see right here.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: He has break downs and his prediction in each round
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: and how the fight goes. Tier rankings breaks down mid
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: upper tier, mid tier, lower tier. We also do have
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: an education video More Education MMA, Big Miley and I
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: talk for about an hour and a half all things
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: related to MMA dfs, answer questions that people had as well.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: I'll just quick throw over to our homepage shipinnation dot
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  Speaker 2: it very easy to build multiple lineups, which I definitely
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: recommend if you are playing the high varian sports of
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: a DFS like we are. What I was gonna say
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: is a lot of wrestlers on this card. Jamaiah five
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: point two, nine, Tyre over three, John Brady over three,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Dawson Rebeccy over three, Sabatini over for Suster KaiB over
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: two and a half, Clayton Carpenter about two. So a
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: lot of wrestlers throughout this ten of the thirteen expected
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: to finish a loaded mid tier two five rounders. We
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: are definitely going to need some big boy scores. We're
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: definitely gonna need some dogs. Though. We play a salary
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: based game, and that is a great segue to kick
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: off the first fight of the night. Jose Echoa minus
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: one seventy five taking on Clayton Carpenter plus one fifth fifty.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: This is one of the three fights expected to go
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: the distance at minus one seventy Achoa plus two thirty five.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Inside the distance Carpenter plus four hundred. This is the
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: fight to start it off for me where I prefer
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: the dog in Clayton Carpenter. I think Achoa, the twenty
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: five year old, will want to strike. I think Clayton
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Carpenter a solid, well rounded fighter, but his easiest pass,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: easiest path, excuse me, is to wrestle and get it
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: to the mat. Seventy four hundred at plus one fifty
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: that wants to wrestle, sign me up for sure. Right
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: in that Joshua Van range seventy five hundred, He's seventy
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: four hundred. A lot of ownership will go to Van,
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: so I think his ownership will be in check. Clayton Carpenter,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: one of my favorite lower tier dogs, is started off.
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: I hope he wins, and I hope he wins a
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: wrestling based I mean, obviously you want to finish, but
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: that's not the most likely outcome. I will take any
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: wrestling base decision win right now at seventy four hundred,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: So he's my preferred fit play to start it off.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: How do you see this fight going?
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, it's going to be probably striker versus wrestler,
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: where if Carpenter wins, he's probably gonna put up a
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: decent score. So he is a solid play at seventy
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: four hundred dollars. But for me, I think my way
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: is gonna be this is my fight to get a
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: little bit different. I do like Ochoa. I think he's
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: gonna be aggressive. He'll probably get taken down a couple times.
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: But he'll be throwing up submissions. I think he could
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: possibly get one, but he could also get back to
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: his feet and really hurt Carpenter at some point in
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: this fight. So if Ochoa can get a finish in
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: the first or second round, ideally the first round, I
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: think he can get different because he won't be owned.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: Nobody's gonna go to him when they're gonna be going
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: to Chamaya Tyra trying to get up to a Tiba.
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: There's just so many other people that they're gonna go
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: to over a Choa. So I think that he is
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: just the nastier fighter of the two, and I like
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: him to get a TKO at some point. So Ochoa's
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: gonna be my probably number one way on this card
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: of getting different. I think the rest of the card
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: I pretty much am eating a lot of chalk. So
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: I like Carpenter as well. He makes a lot of
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: sense for DFS, but the owner will be there for Carboner.
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: I don't think it'll be there for Ochoa. So he's
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: my way to get.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: Different, all right. I can't argue. I like what I
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: see from this guy. Definitely is aggressive a good striker.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: Why I struggled with it is yeah, eighty eight hundred,
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: Like he's plus six fifty in round one. That is
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: not a great round one prop, especially when you're comparing
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: to others and there's possible like if you told me
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: it got a round two knockout, I would definitely play some.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: But there's plenty of round two knockouts for him. That's
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: not optimal on this card where he scores ninety and
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: ninety's probably not enough at eighty eight hundred, which is
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: why it's a concern. But like you said, he's going
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: to be low owned. He is most definitely a pivot
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: in this upper tier. In chalk your lineup, so when
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: you are playing a Tyro or Van a Chamaiah, like
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: if you start your lineup Chamaya van, which is the
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: most popular way I think people are gonna start atoa
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: is a way you can get different right here, So
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: I don't hate it. I will have some in my
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: pool plus two thirty five inside the distance. When you
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: look at that versus his ownership, he's more likely to
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: finish than his ownership will show. But again, at all
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: finishes I do not think will be optimal. Corey in
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: the house. What's going on? Any chance fading Chamaiva is optimal,
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: thinking King Green seventeen. We'll get there. We will definitely
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: get there. When we talk about Chamaiv and Strickland when
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: it is all said and done, Yeah, there you go,
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: no worries at all, you read my mind. Yeah. First
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: fight of the night though, solid one for bing Marley
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: in his opinion for Ochoa low own play. I will
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: have a little bit Carpenter though, one of my favorite
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: dogs on this slate. In the lower tier. Let's get
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: to the second highest price and the second biggest favorite
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: on the card, Chamaya's buddy Banks Sir suster Kai of
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: minus six fifty taking undred plus four seventy five minus
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: two hundred for this fight to finish, suster Kai of
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty five inside the distance Santos plus six
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: fifty Suser Kai of open minus one forty inside the
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: distance now minus one fifty five. Suster kaive in round
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: one open plus two to twenty five now plus two fifteen.
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: My problem is, at the end of the day, he's
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: ninety six hundred and Tamaiav's ninety five hundred and and
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna play a bunch of Chamayev. So it's hard
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: for me to play suser Kayev, and I do not
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: like double spend teams. I do not like the gaudier Chamayev.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: I don't like Susir Kayev Chimayev. I don't think there's
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: enough value on this card, and I think the high
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: eight K low nine K range has enough upside and
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: it's own right where like a King Green, like Corey
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: sat or Pat Sabatine, he could outscore suster Kayev in
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: a vacuum, so I don't see myself getting too much
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: of him. Jordan Santos is pretty tough too, but he's
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: still minus six point fifty, and if he puts up
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: one eighteen one seventeen at relatively low ownership, you would
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: take that. So I'm curious to hear your take, but
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: I have a feeling I know it. With only a
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: two star on this one.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's really more of a one star
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: for me because I know I'm not gonna play Susir Kaiev.
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: The only reason to play him is to get different
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: because he's right in between Chamayev and Atiba, so there's
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: gonna be no ownership on his side, and if he
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: goes out there gets a quick win bonus I mean
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: that's probably the only way to get on the optimal
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: lineup is a quick win bonus, because I don't see
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, that's something like that could happen. Yeah,
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: but yeah, I guess that's what you're playing for, and
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: you're just getting different by playing Suster Kayev Santo's sixty
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: six hundred. If he really affords you everything else, maybe
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: he can get there in a decision if not, many
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: underdogs come through. But I'm just gonna fade this fight.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: Hope that Suster Kayev scores ninety points and that's just
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: not gonna cut it.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: You don't think what would you said? His taste down
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: prop at a half one and a half like plus mine, yeah, but.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: Probably like one.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you don't think he wrestles.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: Dad, I just think he's just a way better striker,
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: No real need to wrestle.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: All right, Yeah, regardless, I don't like him too much
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: at ninety six hundred. There's other ways I'm going to
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: get different him being one hundred more than Jamaiah, Like
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: if so, he's way more interesting. If people are watching
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: the show and just say like you're like all aboard
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: the Strickland chain train and you're not going to play
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: much to Jamaiah. Then that's when, like Susser Kai becomes
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: a very solid play. I mean, he's minus six fifty
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: he opened, as you can see. I put these odds up.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: On Tuesday, he was minus five to fifty, So he's
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: taken a dollar so far since then. It's inside the distance.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: Prop is taking money more likely than not. I think
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: he scored ninety five plus with like one hundred and
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: eighteen point upside. So the problem is if we I
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: think TAMAIAV dominates, Big Barley thinks CHAMAIAV dominates, He's coming
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: off like a two hundred and forty two DK point
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: per for him. And so if you're thinking jamaya does not,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: he does. He can do half of that and still
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: do well. But if you do think Jamayav does wrestle
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: and dominates and you're putting like one hundred and twenty
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: in for him, it's really hard to make a one
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: B one pivot in that same range, and at ninety
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: six hundred, you need a big boy score if Jamayah
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: does do that. So yeah, and Jordan Santos, like I
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: like plenty of other dogs on this card, talked about Carpenter,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: we'll talk about William Gomi's a very low score copy
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: love Jim Miller sixty nine hundred. Like, give me all
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: those guys over Santos had big underdogs stay us. So
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: not a fight I like one bit either. You said
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: it could be a one star I do not hate that,
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: And yeah.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, if you are picking Strickland to win or
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: error in your DFS lineups, then Susus Kaye definitely makes
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: a lot more sense in that case. But all my
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: lineups are gonna come pretty loaded with CHAMAIAV this week.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but I did want to make that caveat because
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: people that are there's gonna be some people out there
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: that think Strickland wins or at least more likely to
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: win than his money line shows, or they're just gonna
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: play this for a fight fade that CHAMAIAV scores or wins,
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: and maybe a first round submission at one oh two.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: And if you have any of those as an outcome,
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: then Susir Kaiev does become more appealing. For sure. Let's
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: get to a fight that I'm excited for, and I'm
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: gonna be overweight too for DFS. Pat Sabatini minus two
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: ten taking on William Gomi's plus one ten. This fight
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: is Or Sabatini minus two ten William Gomi's plus one eighty.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: This fight is plus one ten to finish Pat Sabatini
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: plus one seventy five inside the distance William Gomi's plus
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: four sixty. So the line has gone in the wrong
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: way in terms of the fight to finish was minus
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: one ten on Tuesday, now plus one ten. But that
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: being said, a I agree with the line movement the
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: overtaking money. William Gomies is probably the most boring fighter
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: in the UFC. All the dude likes to do is
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: stick and move. And when I say move like it's
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: like run around the cage and not be touched and
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: being a really boring fight. But with that being said,
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: why I'm playing this fight is Pat Sabatini is a
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: very good DFS player four point four to eight takedowns
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: per fifteen minutes. He wants to wrestle, and all he
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: wants to do is wrestle. His UFC wins in terms
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: of DraftKings scoring, seven of his eight wins have scored
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: ninety plus and five of those has scored over one hundred.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Whether it's a decision whether it's a finish. He has
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: one hundred plus point upside, And to make it even
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: more appealing, Gomis is a striker, so I'm looking at
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: this as wrestler versus striker. Definitely have interest in the
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: wrestler at nine K. I rarely play Gomes in dfs,
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: but I will play some this week, and it mainly
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: has to do with he's seventy two hundred. If we
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: have a lot of favorites win and Gomey scores seventy
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: and seventy five and wins, that might be enough to
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: be optimal. And then to make things even more appealing,
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: Sabatini's chin is not good. Three of his five five
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: losses by knockout. If he can't wrestle in this fight
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: and it has to stand on the feet, Gomey's is
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: live to get a knockout in this one, so I'm
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: gonna be overweight probably both sides. I prefer Sabateeni due
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: to the wrestling, but one of the few fights that
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: I'm actually gonna be on the William Gomes train and
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: place on that seventy two hundred. What do you think
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: in this one?
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: I just agree with everything you said, I prefer Sabatini.
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: He's the one with the ceiling in this fight. He's
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: gonna try and get takedowns. He could get a submission
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: in any round. But I think if Sabatein he wins,
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: he's probably gonna put up a pretty big score, but
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: he has to get takedowns if he can't get takedowns,
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: which are also gonna be hard to do because Gomey's
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: all he's going to be trying to do is avoid action,
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: just running away from Sabatini and then picking some shots
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: when he can. But if it's on the feet, he's
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: gonna be winning. He's just not gonna be scoring unless
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: he's getting that knockout. So uh, I'm fine playing a
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: little bit of him if I am IMMA mean, there's
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: other underdogs if I'm if I'm on limited lineups this week,
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: but Sabatini's one of the favorites that you really can't
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: pass up because he is nine K could put up
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty points in a decision. So I
• 16:24
  Speaker 3: like Sabatini. It's just a Gomy's a bad matchup for
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: DFS players because he's gonna make it tough for Sabatini
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: to score the way he usually can. But yeah, Sabaentini's
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: my pish.
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean with you and I see at locks
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: that for sure. I was surprised to see this fight
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: open minus one fifteen to finish, uh, because it's a
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: William Gomes fight. But yeah, that a sense changed. Now
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: plus money for it to finish. We'll get to the
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: next fight. Marco Tulio and Roman copulof Tuyo minus one
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: ninety Copulav plus one sixty five. This fight's minus won
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: sixty to finish. Tulio plus one zho five inside of
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: this since Copulov plus four hundred, another fight where the
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: over is taking money on Tuesday was minus one eighty
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish now minus one sixty. I'll
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: let you go first on this one since I've taken
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: the last couple. What are your thoughts?
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: Oh man? All right? So I'm interested in both sides
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: of this fight a little bit, but I have it
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: as a two star because I'm picking Tulio to win,
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: and if he doesn't wrestle heavily, then I just don't
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: know how he scores enough points to outscore Chamaiah of
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: a Tiva a Sabatini even and there's other guys that
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: can outscore him too, So I need Tulio to come
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: out here and either wrestle heavily or knock copy Love out,
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: which I really wouldn't rely on because I think copy
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: Lov is the better striker of the two. Tulio is
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: just the more aggress more aggressible striker, the one probably
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: pushing forward. But I don't think he's scoring many points
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: in a striking match against copy Lov, so I don't
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna get too much of this fight, and
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: for me, it's gonna be probably copy Lov is just
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: who is who I'm able to afford in my lineup,
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: says seventy three hundred. I know I'm gonna have Chamaia
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: have been there. There's other favorites I like as well.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: If seventy three hundred dollars is what I need for
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: a cheap underdog, I think copy Lov could win a
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: decision and score around ten x, but he could also
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: get a knockout and score over ninety points, so I
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: think copy Lov is probably my preferred play. Tulio is
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: just a more well rounded fighter, and he's my pick
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: to win.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Do you think any there's any takedowns in this fight
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: from either side.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Tulio should be landing takedowns. I would
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: say his at least one and a half, all.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: Right, I mean Kapilov has good takedown defense eighty eight
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: percent fluffy only one three for fourteen, which is why
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: I ask, but he is I think Tulio will be
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: the more willing wrestler in this one. I agree, Like
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: it's Kachko is my preferred play because he can knock
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: out anyone, but it's mainly he's seventy three hundred. Like,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: if this fight goes to decision, which is not supposed to,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: but it's two primary strikers. If it does go to
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: the decision, sixty sixty five could be enough from Copulav
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: even though I wouldn't love it, but for Tulio, like
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be the same ownership as a Choah. It
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: sounds like you like more, but Tulio is a much
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: better inside the distance prop plus one oh five versus
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: plus two thirty five for a Choa. And if we're
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: just going based on round one props, round one, he's
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: plus three to fifty plus three fifty is twenty two percent.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: We haven't projected below twenty two percent right now. And
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: if you again, maybe a knockout in a minute and
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: thirty seconds with one knockdown that scores one oh three,
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: maybe that's not optimal, but at ownership, I would definitely
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: sign up for that. So when you're just looking at
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: round one twenty two percent his ownership less than that,
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: that will make me have some interest in the Tulio side,
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: especially when I am playing the Van Tyro fight and
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: then Chamayav Chalk Chalk, and again a lot of that
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: will be Chamaya Van. If you are playing Tulio for
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: eighty nine hundred, then maybe I will be looking at
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: some Tulio to mix in the to get a little different.
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: I struggled to pick between Tulio and a cho as
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: my preferred play. I ended up siding Tulio because of
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: that round one prop. But it's definitely close, and I
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: think because Carpenter could like if Carpenter wrestles in the
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: first fight, a Choa spends it off his back and
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: then Knox Mountain round two not going to get there.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: I don't think Copulav wrestles, but I still prefer cocklaw
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: for the savings and again a lot of my teams
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: will have Chamaya. That's why I do need dogs on
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: this card. But Tulio is one plus one oh five
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: inside the distance, the fight's still minus one sixty to finish.
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: I will be playing some Marco Tulio. Appreciate everyone hanging
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: out forty watching live right now. I know many watch
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: on playback. We do this on Thursday night, but yeah,
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: appreciate everyone hanging out. Sg H said, who are your
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: favorite DK cash plays? I don't want to give everything
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: away since we do have MMA Cash or the Core Report.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: We do have cast plays on there. But what I'll
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: say is focus on these two five round fights. Usually
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: that is something that you want to do in the
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: cast streets. But you do get half the lineup in
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: the cash uh half my cash lineup in the Core
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: report right here for fan duel and for DraftKings. Let's
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: go to the next fight on the card. Some old
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: vets thirty seven year old Jared Gordon and forty two
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: year old Jim Miller. Jared Gordon finds himself as a
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: two minus two ninety favorite plus two forty five for
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: Jim Miller on the way back. Second of three fights
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: expect to go the distance at plus one thirty five
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: Gordon plus two twenty five inside the distance Miller plus
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: four to twenty five Gordon in round one plus six hundred.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: It's tough for me to get to too much Jared Gordon.
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: A lot of that has to do with again, if
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: I'm playing Chimayav, he's ninety three hundred dollars as Gordon.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: That's a big price tag for a fight that's expected
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: to go the distance. I prefer Jim Miller if having
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: to choose in this one, because a he'll fight for
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: your dollar, and I could see this being a close
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: decision when it's all said and done. He has some
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: sneaky power, obviously very good jiu jitsu. It mainly comes
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: down to he's sixty nine hundred dollars. He'll fight for
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: my dollar, and that's enough at saty nine hundred to
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: mix in a little bit when I'm playing a bunch
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: of Chamaiah. But yeah, I'm curious to hear how much
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Jared Gordon you think you'll have?
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, another fight I think I'm gonna avoid. I usually
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: do like Gordon because I like his pace that he
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: comes with on the feet and then I also like
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: his wrestling pace too. He's a guy who can get
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: five plus takedowns and really any given fight. But in
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: this fight, Miller is a dangerous submission guy. I feel
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: like his best chance of beating Gordon will be locking
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: up some sort of choke. So I don't know how
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: much Gordon is gonna go out there and wrestle if
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: the striking is going his way, which I think he
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: will be the higher volume striker, the one one of
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: the minutes on the feet. Maybe get clipped there too,
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: and that would be his worry. But I just think
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: that most of this fight plays out on the feet,
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: and at ninety three hundred dollars, that's a tough price
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: to pay for a striking match, so I'll be avoiding it.
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: You did make some sense with Miller. I mean, if
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: that's what you need, ninety sixty nine hundred, he could
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: finish Gordon. But I just don't see him wining minutes.
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: I mean, this guy's like for he's about to turn
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: forty three years old, man, I just think his days
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: of winning minutes are over. So if he doesn't get
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: a submission, I think it's a wrap for him. So
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna pass on this fight. You hope that
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Gordon scores.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: Eighty Yeah, I mean I ideally would want that as well.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: But for me, like I said, I do not love
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: too many cheap underdogs on this slate. So if I'm
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: looking at the cheap as Ozzi da sixty four, hundred,
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: Santos sixty six, Seawn Strickland sixty seven, and then we
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: get Jim Miller, like I don't, I might have zero Strickland,
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Santos or Diaz. And if that's the case, then Jim
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: Miller's the next one up who I would be fine with.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: And I do think we'll get to Jeremy Stevens in
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: a little bit at seven yes, seven k. Like Jeremy
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: Stevens might be like nineteen eighteen percent, Jim Miller might
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: be eight percent. So if you're building a whole Chalky
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: lineup and you just go Stevens down to Jim Miller,
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: could be the difference between like a twenty person dupe
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: and a solo shippers. Crazy as that sounds, I do
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: think people will gravitate more towards Stevens as the cheapest option.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: And said, Jim Miller will fight for my money. I
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: know he's about to be forty three. But the dude's
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: been doing this for a long long time. Still got
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: a little tread on the tires, I think. So I'm
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: going to be cheering for a Jim Miller winning this one,
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: and I will not have much Jared Gordon Jersey too.
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: Miller trying to get a win. I'm sure he would
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: retire if he gets win out there in Jersey.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: That'd be cool, That'd be cool, for sure. I'm rooting
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: for Jim Miller for sure. Easy guy to root for,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: no doubt about that. Let's get to one of my
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: favorite fights on the card, a mid tier fight, Grant
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: Dawson Emmatayos Rebeccy Dawson minus won sixty five Rebeccy plus
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: one forty five minus one ten. For this fight to finish,
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: Rebeccy the underdog better inside the distance profit plus one
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: eighty while Dawson is plus three fifty. As you can
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: see on the stone, I mean a lot of green
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: and the takedown the and for both of these guys.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: You can also see on Tuesday, Grant Dawson was minus
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: one eighty two favorite now a minus one sixty five
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: Rebeccy taking some money, Dawson's gonna want to wrestle. How
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: do you see this fight going.
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: I like this fight. Dawson's gonna try and wrestle on
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: when he does. He's a high paced wrestler. I think
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: he's gotta put up a big score if he wins,
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: and he could put up six plus takedowns in this
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: fight and have ten minutes of top control at eighty
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: three hundred. So I definitely like Dawson a lot, But
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: at the same time, if I can't afford him, I'm
• 25:36
  Speaker 3: okay going down to Rebeccy and just kind of hoping
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: that he blasts Dawson because Dawson just can't hang with Rebeccy.
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: Maybe volume wise, he can kick out throwout kicks long
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: enough until the takedowns are there, But if the takedowns
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: are not there, Rebeccy's gonna knock out Dawson at some point.
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: So I see a big score coming either way in
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: this one, more likely from Dawson, so he is my
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: preferred play. But on a car, I'm hunting for underdogs.
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: I'm not against going down to Rebeccy, And same thing
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: you mentioned from the Miller and Stevens that the whole
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: dupe thing. If you really like a Dawson lineup, maybe
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: just duplicated, throw a Rebeccy lineup in there too. That
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: take it from fifty dupes down to you know, four.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: Or five for sure, and I'm definitely fine doing that.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: So this would probably be, I mean, outside of Tyra Van,
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: I think my favorite fight on the card. Like I'm
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: not saying the Strickland Tamaya because I'm not really picking Strickland,
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: but of course that you can add that one in.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: But after that, when we're talking both sides, like you
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: can just see it in the wrestling department, Rebeccy at
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: seventy nine hundred is plus one eighty inside. The distance
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: is phenomenal, and I do think that we see both
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: Sean Brady and Grant Dawson get quite a bit of
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: ownership eighty three hundred and eighty four hundred with their
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: wrestling upside. So I think Rebeccy offers you leverage and
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: plenty of upside. So if I'm not playing Grant Dawson,
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: I mean I probably want to play Rebeccy and leave
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: four hundred to leave a couple hundred bucks. This will
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: probably be a five star fight for me, I absolutely
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: love this one. Favorite fight in the mid tier, one
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: of my favorite fights to target on the card. I
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: will definitely be hoping this fight is optimal. Let's keep
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: it rolling. Next fight on the cart a phenomenal real
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: life fight. I'm excited for this one, yarslov i'mos have
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: taken on Joel Evro Alvarez most minus one seventy Elvrez
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: plus one forty five minus one fifteen for this fight
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: to finish, Alvarez the underdog better inside the distance profit
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: plus two to twenty five amos. If plus two point fifty,
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: I'll let you take this one away. I'm very excited
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: for this one.
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's similar to the Dawson Rebecca one. That's those
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: are my next two favorite a side from the title fights.
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: They're right there in the mid range. Both guys are dangerous.
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: Amasov is gonna be the way better wrestler. He's gonna
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: dictate where this fight takes place, but he is gonna
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: want to wrestle, and nobody really wants to wrestle Alvarez
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: because he's one of the most dangerous submission guys really
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: in the UFC. So I'm excited to see how that
• 28:01
  Speaker 3: plays out. I think that Alvarez came into the UFC
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: as really a more of a pure submission guy. Now
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: he's a dangerous striker. I don't think Amazov is gonna
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: want to strike with him. Alvarez is dangerous there. He
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: could finish him anywhere, So I'm fine with both sides
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: of this one. Amazov is going to be our minute winner,
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: the guy who could put up one hundred and twenty
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: five points in the decision, but Alvarez could get a
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: finish in any second, in any round, So I'm fine
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: with both sides. I really don't even know who I
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: I bet. I picked Alvarez because he's the underdog, but
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: I went back and forth on this fight so many times.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: This was my toughest fight to call, so I guess
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: since he's only seventy seven hundred, Alvarez my preferred play.
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: Alvarez is my preferred play too. I just think the
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: dude's a beast, so seeing him the underdog, I'm almost
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: always picking him. Obviously, Serukian made him an absolute mess,
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: but he's eight hundred dollars cheaper on the car that
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: I need. Underdogs is really what it came down to,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: but I'm really excited for this one, Like this is
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: most of you looks like a complete monster. I will
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: be playing some as well. Why I like the Rebeccy
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Dawson fight Moore and I think I like Sean Brady
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Buckley Moore as well is these two might just be
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: such good real life fighters where it kind of negates
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: itself and the fact of being like a high paced
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: war fun DFS fight. If it's on the feet, like
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: they can both be trading and landing, but if it
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: goes to decision, unless it's just a pure wrestling dominance
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: on one side, it very well might not score. So
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: I think I have this number three in terms of
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: mid tier fights. For sure Dawson, Rebeccy I like more,
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: and I for sure Sean Brady Moore. And then when
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: we get there as well, like if Buckley has the
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: same performance as Morales last fight, he can easily get
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: a knockout. So this fight is number three in the
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: mid tier for me, but I like it. There's no
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: doubt I'm more excited for in real life than DFS,
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: but I will be playing in seventy seven hundred. Alvarez
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: is definitely appealing for me. All right, We'll keep it
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: rolling again. Appreciate every hanging out Again. All we ask
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: is the like button subscribe button helps us out a ton.
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: I see your question, almah Bic. We will talk about
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: that when we get to that fight. I'm curiously you
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: are big Marley's thoughts. I have some thoughts myself, but
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: we will talk about that when we get there. In
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: six fights, we are going to the biggest favorites by
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: a mile on this card at Tiba Gotti a minus
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: eighteen hundred, Osman Diaz Ozzi Diaz plus nine hundred minus
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: one thousand for this fight to finish, Gottia minus seven
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: to fifty inside the distance, Diaz plus nine hundred, Gottia
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: minus two hundred in round one open minus one sixty five.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: I'll throw it right to you, and I'm wondering if
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: you have Sometimes you have like the first minute props
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: on there. I'm wondering if you do have that.
• 30:45
  Speaker 3: I didn't look it up. I can try as we
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: go along, but yeah, for this one, it's just going
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: to be can you afford a tiba, especially if you're
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: come in with a pre loaded chamayav lineup. I don't
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: know that i'll be able to haven't built enough lineups.
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: I know the one lineup that I did build, I
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: wasn't able to afford him. I'm not gonna go to
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: any ds. His way to win would just be to
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: survive early and then land more strikes throughout the next
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: two rounds. But for me, it's gonna be a te
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: baw or pass. You are going to need that first
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: minute knockout though, for him to be on the optimal lineup,
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: I would imagine because he's not gonna be looking to wrestle.
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: He's also not going to be crazy volume in a
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: fifteen minute fight, So we're gonna need a sixty second
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: or less knockout. Let me see if I can find
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: it real fast. If you're a how about if you're
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: playing one hundred and fifty line up, how many a
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: tea buddy, you think you'll be able to get.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: To thirteen percent?
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: Thirteen? That's that's not bad again, quarterback, I'm not gonna
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: have one hundred and fifty this week.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: I'm totally guessing on that. One thing I want to
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: say when you're looking that up is a card ice shift.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: Last year, UH, with the Sirukian card, there was a
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: ninety eight hundred dollar. I'd have to look at the
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: exact price. I think it was ninety eight hundred that
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: did get the first minute bonus and put up one
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: twenty six. And I want to say the next highest
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: scorer was like one thirteen, and he still was not
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: optimal and really wasn't even close. So not even all
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: first minute bonus wins are guaranteed to be optimal on
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: this card, which is another extra layer to mention.
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: Uh so fight ins in first sixty seconds is plus
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: four hundred. Almost all that equity is going to be
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: for a Tiva. But that's plus four hundred and twenty percent.
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: Twenty percent. Man. The thing is like on this card,
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: if Tramayav gets one hundred and forty and outscores Ativa's
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: first minute, like it's it's really tough, so twenty percent.
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: So I think I feel good about thirteen percent.
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I would rather pay up for him
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: than go to susir Kaya.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: Have to be honest, I agree.
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: I still know that I'll be able to get to
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: either one of them. I know I'm not gonna have
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty on this card. I'm not going
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: to have much time during the day if anything happened
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: to change my lineup. So I'm gonna be real limited
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: on my lineups this week, So I just don't know
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: that I'll be able to get to him.
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: That makes sense, I'm gonna man, I think thirteen percent
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: sounds pretty solid for me. I think I would be
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: fine being around there. But again, not all first minute
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: bonus twenty percent. If he gets one hundred and twenty seven,
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: you take it, there's no doubt about that. But I
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: do think he more than likely comes in overall. Now, again,
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: if you're on the chama or on the song Sean
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: Strickland Side or the CHAMAIAV just comes out there, gets
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: one takedown, gets a quick first round submission, and Tamaiah
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: doesn't get like the one hundred and twenty plus, then at
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Tiba becomes a lot more appealing in my opinion. So
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: we're both on the same page. We're kind of tipping
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: our hand. We think Jamiah puts up a nuke in
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: this one where you absolutely need him at ninety five hundred,
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: then it's a little harder. I don't love the ninety
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: eight hundred and ninety five hundred dollars spends especially because
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: when you do that, almost everyone's then going to go
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: to Joshua Van and then people are gonna go to
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: the Dawson Rebeccy fight and then maybe Alvarez or Buckley
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: or I think it goes. You go to the same
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: path as a lot of people. So if you are
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: doing that, maybe that's when you play a Jim Miller
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: or a Stevens or a go Me's. I guess won't
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: be too too popular. So I just want everyone to
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: be cautious. We'll talk about it at the end again.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: But when you start your lines with Chamayav and Van,
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: I think you have to you have to be cautious
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: about the rest of your teams. If you're going to
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Tiba Van, then I think you can do a Teva
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Van Chamayah then I think you maybe just I don't know,
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: maybe that's different enough. Let's see what we have. What
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: we have A Tiba's ownership that quick thirty two percent.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: If that is the case, I will definitely be way
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: way lower on than that. But maybe a lot of
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: Chamayav teams are fade Chamayav teams go and plug in
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: a Teaba to start. Maybe I can see that it's
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: a fun card. There's a lot of different routes to go.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: Two five rounders always makes it fun, and thirteen fights
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: adds a two five rounders adds a different dimension. Thirteen
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: fights usually spreads itself out a good amount anyway, So
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: I'm excited for this one. I'm pumped, but I will
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: hope a Tiba wins. I hope he wins, not in
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: the first minute, and I hope he scores like one
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: oh six and that is not gonna be enough at
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: ninety eight hundred more than likely. All Right, we'll keep
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: it rolling. I'm excited for this fight. King Green taking
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: on Jeremy Stevens. Wow, so this line moved a lot.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: I looked this morning. It was minus holy cows, minus
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: three fifty this morning. Now it's minus four to twenty.
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing taking on Jeremy Stevens plus three twenty minus
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: won ten for this fight to finish, Green plus one
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: eighty five inside this in Stevens plus three forty. So
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: you can see when I did these odds on Tuesday
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: it was minus three twenty five. It's almost a whole
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: dollar King Green has taken in this one. The fight
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: open plus one hundred to finish Now it's minus one ten,
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: so the under is taking money, but the favorite in
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: King Green's inside the distance has gone the wrong way
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: open plus one sixty now plus one eighty five. Or
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: Stevens the underdog open plus four sixty five inside the
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: distance now plus three forty. I think Stevens. I love
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: watching Jeremi Stevens fights, and I love watching King Green fights.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: King Green will keep you apping and throwing jabs and
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: punches at the hip, whereas Jeremy Stevens hits like a truck.
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Is this the fight King Green goes and tries to
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: wrestle and mix it in a little bit, or do
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: you think he just wants to show he's the better
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: striker and we get absolute war on the feet.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah. I would imagine he's gonna go out there and
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: look to strike. He would only look to wrestle if
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: he eats a big shot, more of a recovery mode
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: type of deal. That's how I see it going down.
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: But if you go out there and beat Stevens in
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: a striking match in New Jersey, I think you're looking
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: at fifty K, hundred K, whatever it is these days.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: So i'd imagine that's what Bobby Green is looking to
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: do help pay off that new strip club just bought.
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: But Stevens, you're just playing him for the knockout chance.
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's one of the baddest dudes that's that's
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: really ever been in the UFC. But he's also lost,
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: I think more than anybody that ever lost in the UFC.
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: He's got a losing record overall in the UFC, had
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: like thirty something fights he hasn't had. He hasn't won
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: since before I had kids, man, so it's been a
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: long time. But a knockout, he's gonna score well. But
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: I don't think I'm gonna take my chances on that
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: with limited lineups. Mmm, I would take my chances on
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: some Stevens lineups, but ten or less, I just can't
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: get there. I think there's other underdogs who have a
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: better chance of winning minutes, and that's just not gonna
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: be Stevens Green. I think he is the tempting DFS
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: play because he won't get too much ownership because he
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: is ninety two hundred dollars. But he can put up
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: really good volume in a fifteen minute fight even and
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: he could also maybe get a knockdown in there as well.
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: Stevens is tough, he'll get back up, and you mentioned
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: he could wrestle if he wants to. He's just a
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: better all around fighter in this one. So Green is
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: another way I'm looking at possibly getting different on this card.
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: He's my big to one.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely playing King Green. I think he yeah, my
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: favorite pivot, or at least one of them. You're a
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: Choa is Mike king Green. Now, I do think King
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: Green will be higher owned than a Choa, and especially
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: seeing him now minus four to twenty, I almost hate
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: to see that. I liked him more when he was
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: minus three twenty five because I think ownership was going
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: to be lower. Regardless, I'm still playing it though, because
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: if he finishes, that's just icing on the cake. But
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: he can land Towerner significant strikes in a fifteen minute fight.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: He could go out there and just wrestle, or he
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: can dump them down. Stevens get back up, strike a lot,
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: dump them down. I think Mason Jones had eight takedowns
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: against Stevens last time out. There's just multiple paths for
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: King Green to be optimal in this fight. And if
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: he does just strike the whole time, that gives Jeremy
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: Stevens the chance to land, to knock him out, to
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: land on the chin. King Green has been knocked out
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: multiple time times. Stevens hits like a truck. But I
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: am worried, so I kind of now that I see
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: the line movement for the whole dollar, I don't think
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: Stevens is gonna be like the twenty percent and then
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: Jim Miller seven. So I want to retract my statement
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: a little bit. This is really recent line movement. The
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: twenty it was minus four hundred, now minus four twenty.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: Someone like hit it during the show almost yeah, literally
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: ten minutes ago that line moved twenty more cents. So unfortunately,
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: the more it moves, the more people will go King
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: Green because Tamaia King Green ninety five, ninety two and
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: then you jam mid tier and one lower tier is
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: very viable. So I'm definitely gonna play it, but I'm
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: gonna keep a close eye on line movement projected ownership
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: because I could see people getting to him. Even with
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: the subpar inside the distance prop, he can score one
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: oh eight in a decision win due to some wrestling
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: and a lot of volume. So I'm gonna play this
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: fight I'm very excited for this one in real life
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: for sure. YEP. I definitely agree with you, Corey. Phenomenal,
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: phenomenal fight all right again, appreciate everyone hanging out like
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: button helps us out a ton Subscribe button as well.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the cart a very good one. Sean
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: Brady and Joe Woke and Buckley minus one fifty five
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: is Brady Buckley plus one thirty five minus one thirty
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish, both guys are plus two
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: twenty inside the distance. A little money has came in
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: on Buckley, not too much since Tuesday. The over has
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: taken a little bit of money as well. Sean Brady
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: always good dfs play three point five to three takedowns
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: per fifteen minutes, taking on Buckley with some big boy power.
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: Buckley did just fight a wrestler and usman though, and
• 40:41
  Speaker 2: had no answers. Brady will definitely try and do that
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: same game plan. However, he is coming off a knockout
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: loss to Michael Morales, who stayed at distance, was an
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: absolute sniper, knocked him out. I think Buckley is gonna
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: try and implement that same game plan. Keep it at distance,
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: use your length, use your jab, try and knock him
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: out and put some hands on him. Do you see
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: it going that same way? And who do you think
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: wins out?
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's gonna be just one or the other.
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: Either Brady wrestles heavily and puts up a big score
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: or he gets knocked out and Buckley puts up a
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: decent score himself. So I think this is a really
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: good fight to target. I think they'll worry and this
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: one will be Brady wins the first half, gets knocked
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: out in the third round or something like that, and
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: Buckley puts up fifty in it with a knockout. But
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna be targeting this one heavily. Brady is
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: my preferred play. I think the wrestling will be there
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: and hopefully the channel hold up.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: I agree, I'm gonna go. I like the chn Brady
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: side too. With that being said, I think it's similar
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: to the Dawson Rebeccy fight, where I do think Sean
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: Brady is higher own. People will look at the game logs,
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: they will know how much he can wrestle, and I
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: don't love the idea of just going Brady down to
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: Buckley and leaving six hundred it's viable, but because salary's
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: pretty tight on this card, I think I'm more likely
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: to upgrade somewhere. But I mean, Buckley has one hundred
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: plus point upside. Let me check round one props on
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: both pretty much the same. Brady plus five hundred Buckley
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: plus five to fifty, so very similar, even though Brady
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: finds himself as a favor. But even if this fight
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: goes the distance, Sean Brady can put up one hundred
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: and twenty. I almost always pick Sean Brady. I'm going
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: to do it again, but I think the game theory
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: play Buckley at seventy eight hundred plus two twenty to
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: finish and leverage off of Sean Brady is pretty pretty interesting,
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: all right, keep it rolling. Three fights left. The only
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: heavyweight fight on this card is don't think it gets
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: too much ownership is there? As it is the last
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: fight that we're talking about that's expected to go the distance,
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: it's actually the most likely to go the distance on
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: the card. Alexander Volkov minus one fifty, Waldough Cortez Acosta
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: plus one thirty plus one fifty five for this fight
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: to finish, Bolkop plus two ay five inside the distance
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: a Coasta plus three eighty five. How do you see
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: this fight going down?
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is actually gonna be a fifteen minute,
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: fairly technical striking match between two heavyways, So I'm just
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: gonna avoid it with limited lineups. That is, with M
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: and me, I'd be okay sprinkling either guy in Volkov
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: more to get different. I don't think the ownership will
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: be on Volkov, but he is the more likely wrestler.
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: He could get a knockout. A Coast is interesting because
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: he's an underdog on cars what we really need underdogs
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: on He could get a knockout. He could also win
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: minutes in this one, and maybe it is like a
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: change into the guard type of deal. But he isn't
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: that young himself, so I'm just not too interested in
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: the fight because I'm picking Volkov to win. But for DFS,
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: I think my preferred play would probably be to save
• 43:44
  Speaker 3: the money go to a Coasta because I know that'll
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: help me get up to the Chamayas that I know
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to get to.
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: One hundred percent agree. I don't love this fight. I
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: don't love the upside of it, but a Coast is
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: definitely might prefer play for being one k cheaper, but
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: also the line movement on Tuesday minus was Volkov. Now
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: he's minus one fifty, so twenty five cents has came
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: on the Coasta side. It might only keep moving as well,
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: so for his price, the money line's good inside the
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: distances if he but I mean, I guess if that
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: means like he's gonna get a lot more ownership because
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: of it. I still wouldn't love it much because I
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: agree with you. I think it just stays on the feet.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: A Coasta can win minutes. You see lands Moore volume,
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: Volkov's tough to put away. I think, like you said
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: it right away, a technical, fifteen minutes striking match, and
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: if that is the case, it probably busts. But I
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: mean I'd rather hold. I'd rather have a Coast on
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: my teams than I would Volkov for one k less
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: and maybe sixty five, maybe seventies enough, or maybe he
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: gets a knockdown, maybe finishes the fight. It's heavyweights he can.
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: The bigger they are, the harder they fall. You see
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: Volkov at six seven, I will be cheering for a
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: Coast to I will not have much Volkov at all,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: But I don't love the upside in this fight. It's
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: mainly the price take and the money line that is
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: drawing me. We have two fights left on the card.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: Just want to share again. If you are I mean,
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: if you skip the beginning and you're checking this out
• 45:08
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• 45:10
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  Speaker 2: you or it gets you discord. It also gets you.
• 45:49
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• 45:52
  Speaker 2: sweating out fights. A great community for sure, and if
• 45:55
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• 45:57
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• 46:01
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• 46:05
  Speaker 2: You cannot beat that. Projections, ownership, the stone will be
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: filled in sight plan, tier rankings, everything you need, including
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: an education video more education where Big Marley and I
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: broke down different strategies for cash for tournaments. Our styles.
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: Answer questions can also find us in the discord. All right,
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: two fights left absolutely two phenomenal fights, two title fights.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: In this one we are talking about the flyweight Championship.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: Was supposed to be at UFC three twenty seven. Joshua
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: Van had a minor injury, so it gets rebooked for
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: this weekend. He finds himself as a plus one forty
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: dog taken onto suer Tyra, who's plus one minus one
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: sixty minus one ninety for this fight. To finish, Tyra
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: plus one twenty inside the distance, Van plus two sixty five.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: I don't think you can get any more grappler versus
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: striker in this one. I'm not trying to disc Tyra's striking.
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: His light kicks has improved, but when Van's on the feet.
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: He throws a whole lot of volume, and we know
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: Tyra on the mat is nasty, he floats, good backtaker.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: He will be trying to get this fight to the
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: mat for sure. You have five, you have more stars
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: on the Van side, so it looks like you're going
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: with the dog in this one. I'll let you break
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: it down first.
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, going with the dog because I just think he
• 47:23
  Speaker 3: should be a little bit closer to pick him. I
• 47:25
  Speaker 3: don't think Tyra can hang with Van on the feet,
• 47:28
  Speaker 3: especially over the course of twenty five minutes. That Van
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: is gonna be too much. He is the slicker striker.
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: I think he'll be the more dangerous striker, and that
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: volume is just He's not gonna hang with that volume
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: for sure. So Tyra's gonna have to grapple. If he does,
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: I think he could get a submission. I mean really
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: in any round. But if he's grappling early, I think
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: he's more likely to slow down. Late Van I don't
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: think will slow down. But also Van's only been grappling
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: like a couple of years in his lifetime, so I
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: think Tyra is gonna have a big edge in those
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: first couple of round. Could be over before Van even
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: gets a chance to get off. But man, Van's is
• 48:06
  Speaker 3: so tricky. I think he's gonna be able to get up.
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: He's gonna make it tough for Tyra, and I just
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: think eventually Tyra might start to slow down and Van
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: the volume is gonna be there, and I think he
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: could get a stopage at some point put up one
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: hundred plus at seventy five hundred, So Vans might preferred play.
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: I'd say most of my lineups are gonna start Van
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: Shamaia and I gotta figure it out from there.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: You definitely gotta get different from there. If those are
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: your first two again, I think those are the two
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: highest owned on the card. I wanted to pick Joshua
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: Van because of the line as when I first looked
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: at the fight and I thought I was gonna But
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: the more I dove in, I just I mean, Van's
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: been taking down at least once in five of his
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: ten fights, and if Tyra gets you down, it literally
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: might just take one, which is the word. He's so
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: good on top, he's so good for the back tick.
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: I just think the Chalky route plus one eighty five
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: by submission now plus one night. I mean that's what
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: I'm picking to happen. I think Tyra does get it
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: to the mat, and when he does, I don't think
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: Van's gonna have an answer. Like you said, he's only
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: been grappling for a couple years. That's that's not good
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: when to sue Tyra's on your back or when he's
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: floating on top. There's levels to the game, and I
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: am very worried Tyra does get him down pretty early,
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: and when he does, he's Uh. I think Van's in
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: for a world of trouble. I'm probably gonna be underweight Van.
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: Now I want to ask you this, Are you gonna
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: have one hundred percent of this fight? And if if not,
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: how does it fail? Or even if you are, I
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: guess how does it fail?
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: I mean I am with limited lineups. If I was
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: making one hundred and fifty, I wouldn't make it a rule,
• 49:43
  Speaker 3: but I think I would have their projections high enough
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: to where it would get me close enough to almost
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: all in. How does it fail? Maybe a first round
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: Tyro's emission and it's just doesn't score enough points, or
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: Tyra dominates the first two rounds gets knocked down the third,
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: something like that.
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the round one submissions a little harder
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: for me because it's only eighty seven hundred, But maybe
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: like Patsa Ateenie scored ninety one or something like that
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: in a first round win, which probably wouldn't be enough.
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: I think the more likely outcome, like you said, is
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: Van or yeah, like or Van dominates rounds round one,
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: or Tyer can't get a takedown and then Tyra gets
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: an early round two takedown and gets a submission. I
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: don't think that does it. If Tyra absolutely dominates the
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: first two rounds and Van gets a third round knockout,
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: but then still, I mean, it's seventy five hundred, you're
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: probably taking that. So I do think it probably has
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: to be Van winning round one and pretty convincingly, maybe
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: even the first two rounds, and then Tyro in the
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: third round getting the takedown on the submission or something.
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not making it a rule just because of how
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: chalky it will be, but I'm probably gonna have one
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: hundred percent. Are you more likely to fade this fight
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: or the Chamaya fight?
• 51:07
  Speaker 3: This fight because I know I'm gonna have Chamaiah it.
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: All, I think i'd be more likely to fade the
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: Chamaya fight, hoping he scores one oh five or one
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: hundred like gets that first round win, and ninety five
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: hundred isn't enough. I'm gonna have a lot of it
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: for sure. They don't have to find ways to get different.
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: But it's a really tough one to get away from
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: class of styles. Five rounds to work only eighty seven
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: hundred seventy five hundred. That's a couple hundred dollars miss
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: priced on both sides. Over three takedowns for tyro Per
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: fifteen over eight significant strikes four van It's a great
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: fight to target for DFUS. There's no denying that, thankfully,
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: though we do have thirteen fights, so you can find
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: pivots in there. Whether it's a choa low owned copy love,
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: I don't even know after that, this fight's Chalky Stevens
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: maybe a little bit. This vulk of a coast to fight,
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: even though I don't love it. You can always leave
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: money on the table though at sometimes like a ten
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: dup team maybe should be a twenty dukee team and
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: it's still plus rois. You don't have to fully try
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: and find the solo shippers played somewhat of the best
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: plays a lineup you think will win and then make
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: one pivot, leave a little money, and yeah, get different.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: That way is how I see it. Prizes are massive
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: this week. If you're chopping first place with twenty or less,
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: I promise you will be happy, especially in the flag ship.
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: All right, it's main event time. Again. I appreciate everyone
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: hanging out with us through the whole thing. We have
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: a phenomenal fight. Tom's out Chamaia of minus six hundred
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: taken on Sewn Strickland plus four twenty five. This is
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: for the middleweight strap minus two point fifty for this fight.
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: To finish, Tamaya of minus two hundred inside the distance
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: Seawan Strickland plus seven seventy five chamaiavan round one plus
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: two fifty and to be honest, I think the worst
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: case for Chamaiah backers is a round one finish. More
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: than likely if it's one takedown and domination and then submission.
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: I think that is the most likely outcome Chamayah fails
• 52:59
  Speaker 2: in the one. The longer the fight goes, the more
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: you almost want. Because we just saw Tamayah score two
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: hundred and forty two DraftKings points in a twenty five
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: minute decision win over tree Kiss that is insane, insane numbers.
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: That's morob and there is pretty much no one else
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: after that. I mean, yeah, I don't see how Sean
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: Strickland does it. Like the Tamayah's out of this world.
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: I've never picked against him, said future chant from the
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: get go, back when he was fighting during the COVID
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: time overseason Abu Dhabi, when he fought on Saturday and
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: then Wednesday, I believe it was or something crazy like
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: that against Porker and then Reese mcketh, like the dude
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: was special, was so obvious from the get go. Gilbert
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: Burns arguably beat him, was really close to beating him.
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: So no one is untouchable. But I mean, yeah, how
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: how does how does Strickland win? Is my question because
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: we already know your jam yet, So how does he win?
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: Is my first question? And then we got to get
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: to these two. Any chance fading Hamzad is optimal? And
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: then is locking him in one fifty a dumb idea
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: or a sharp idea? And then I'll answer these questions
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: in my opinion.
• 54:08
  Speaker 3: Oh well, I'm not the greatest one to fifty players,
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: so I'm not the best to answer. But if I
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: was one fifty in like the Mini Max four hundred
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: and fifty dollars, I would lock him in.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: Because you treat that Let me interrupt, and you're saying
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: that because you treat it as more of a single
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: entry where that's less dollar amount in your like for you,
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: whereas if you're yes, less like, so that's a big
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: reward thing.
• 54:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but let's say it's the twenty five. Let's say
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: it's your one fifty, because you know what I mean,
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: four hundred and fifty dollars to some people might be
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: a lot more of their DFS bank role. So big
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: Marley is saying, if it's if if that one fifty
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: max is like a normal amount of money or not
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: crazy amount of money, is more likely to do it
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: if it's something that's pretty significant where you usually die
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: diversify because it is a relatively good amount of money.
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: It sounds like you wouldn't do it. Is that a
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: correct assessment?
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, if I was doing one fifty in the twenty.
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: Twenty five, I wouldn't make a rule twenty five seven
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: hundred and fifty week.
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, so even even more, I wouldn't make a
• 55:17
  Speaker 3: rule but at the same time, I would have CHAMAIAV
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: just plugged in for probably twenty more points than anybody
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: else on this card. And the only way I don't
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: get that type of deal would be, uh that the
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: salary just doesn't fit. I wout imagine, which I'd be
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: okay not have, And if that's the case, I just
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: have nobody priced yeah, over ninety four hundred. That'd be
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: the only reason I'd want to not have Chamaiyah. But
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: nobody can touch Jamayav's ceiling. I don't think this is
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: the type of fight where CHAMAIAV gets a takedown locks
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: up for rear naked choke. I think he's gonna want
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: to hurt Strickland. I think he's right, he'd rather have
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: the ref rip him off of Strickland rather than choke
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: him out in the first couple of minutes. So I
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: think we're gonna put up over one hundred and ten,
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: which is probably gonna be enough, but I would imagine
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be over one hundred and twenty or one
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: hundred and thirty. He's nasty, I mean, nobody, nobody's gonna
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: beat Chamaiev. I don't think. But the way Strickland would
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: would just be to weather a massive early storm, tire
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: him out and get a late knockout.
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: I agree with a lot of that, So let me
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: let me go down. Is you never lock? What is
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: that dumber? Sharp? I wouldn't call it dumb, but it's not.
• 56:31
  Speaker 2: It's definitely not something I would do. For what Big
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: Marley said, and kind of like this is one ten
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: enough to make the winning lineup, I would put it
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: as like a sixty forty chance that it does. But
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: I think his ownership comes in over sixty percent. So
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: if I knew he would score one hundred and ten,
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: I would be well underweight. I maybe have twenty percent Jamaiah,
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: because then when you win when he's not optimal, it's
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: a lot more likely that it's five dupes or less,
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: Whereas if CHAMAIAV is the winning lineup, it's gonna be
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: a lot harder to do that, especially when I'm not
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: making these other crazy stands. So if I know it's
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: one hundred and ten, I am gonna be way underweight.
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: If I know for sure it's gonna be one hundred
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: and ten, and you're saying is that optimal or not?
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: I think it's sixty forty yes, or something like that
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: one oh five, Like I I'm not taking one oh
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: five on this card at ninety five hundred, So is
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: it dumb? Not dumb? I would not say it's sharp,
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: though I do not see the best players in the world,
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: the Sheets of the world, who's always in our discord,
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: you can get his thoughts. He almost never locks people.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: I do not think Sheets will be locking Chamaya this week.
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: Whoever you think the best players in the MMA streets
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: are that one fifty, I do not see them hitting
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: the lock button on Chimaya. Of so I do not
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: think it is the best way to do it. But
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna say it's dumb because I know fights
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: take like we have. I mean, he very well might
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: and if he does even score one ten or one fifteen,
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: and you do lock it, even if if it's not optimal,
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: which would be a little sad, if you're locking it
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: like you're raising your min cash equity on a lot
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: of your lineups, right there, any chance fading CHIMAIAV is optimal.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: And that also it comes down to all right, the
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: people priced below or Susir Kaiap. If you think Susir
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: Kayap gets one fifteen, if you think King Green is
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: scoring over one hundred, if you really like Merco Tulio
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: or Jared Gordon, and not only depends on what Chamayav does,
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: it depends on what those other high eight K, high
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: nine K or nine K fighters do. If you really
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: like the King Green's, the Ochoa's, the suster Kaive's, the Sabatini's,
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: the Tulios, then it is easier to fade Chimaiev. If
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: you do not like them too much and you think
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: they all score less than one hundred or right around there,
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: it makes it more difficult to fade Chimayev. So you
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: also have to think about that. For me, I like
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: uh Pat Sabatini's upside a lot. I think Tulio has passed,
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: but I don't love it, and I like Kativa quite
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: a bit. But man, that three hundred more than Chamaia
• 59:05
  Speaker 2: makes it makes it difficult. It's the king Greens and
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: the Sabatinis are my two favorite after obviously Tyra is
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: already a given, and then that mid tier the Sean Brady,
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: the Grant Dawson's. But because they're so different price than
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: Jamaiyav like, you can play them with Chamaiev, so you
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: can't really compare them in a vacuum. In my opinion,
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: hard of picture jamaiav winning lineup that's dupe lessant time
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: ten times without leaving a thousand and salary. Yes, but no,
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: because I mean, if you play Jim Miller, or you
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: play Asi Diaz, or you play Alexander Volk or Alexander
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: Volkanov Volkanov see Alexander Volkov, or you play Jose Achoa,
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: or it's a suster kaye of Chimayav team, it's roster construction.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: Ways that you can do it, and they'll be solo,
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: they'll be lineups that without any dupes that do play
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: Chamayav and Van. If you play Jamaiavan Van the two
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: Chalkys fighters, you can still make a lineup that will
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: not be duped. But then after that and not even
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: leave that much money. But after that you are playing
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: again an Ozzy Diaz, maybe as Jeremy Stevens and a
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: Jim Miller, and you're going to stars and scrubs no
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: one wants to do. You can do it, but it's
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: gonna be uncomfortable, and that's where ownership definitely comes into play.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: MMA projections. You get our projections and ownership cumulative ownership,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 2: but also just the individual ownership on one or two guys.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: If you're playing two sub ten percent or two sub
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: fifteen percent fighters, leave two hundred dollars. You can play
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: chamayav and Van two of the Chalky options and do
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: it that way. So yeah, it's possible. It's just you
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: gotta get a little uncomfortable in some spots. And that's
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: kind of also where it comes back to, where like
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: instead of playing I mean Ozzy Diaz and a Jim
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: Miller or just Ozzy das period and having a solo shipper,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: I'd almost rather have fifteen dupes with some of my
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: friends and not play Asidas because I just don't think
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: the odds are a lot better that way. So sometimes
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: higher dup lineups still will sim out better and be
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: better because they have a more likely chance to win.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: But in a very high variant sport, I always will
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: never complain about a solo team because when you win,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: how much do you win? Or I got a shout
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: out to my guy Ian McGill. Sometimes you don't only
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: take first by yourself or yeah, you take first by
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: yourself three different times with that same lineup. Legendary stuff there,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: but I also don't recommend doing that, and I've told
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: Ian that as well. But when it works, it definitely
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: is nice and absolutely legendary. That's an over an hour
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: talking some UFC at three twenty eight, five pm Eastern
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: in New Jersey, Live crowd, big cage, two title fights,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: thirteen real fights, Fingers cross, everyone makes way because if so,
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 2: we are in for a tree two hundred thousand up
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: top in the flagship. Always love talking fights with you,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: Big Marley. Final thoughts before you get on out here,
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: not man.
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: Hopefully it's a good one. Hopefully it's a profitable one.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: Good luck to you title, good luck to everybody listening.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: Let's ship it.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it. Indeed, hope to see people in the
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: MMA discord again. Shipping Nation dot com. You can find
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: all of our different packages, whether it's all access, whether
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: it's five days for nineteen dollars, or the single sport
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: MMA package. We would love to have you. I hope
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: we see some Shipping Nation logos up top when it's
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: all said and done. Enjoy the fights this weekend. Be
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: safe for Big Marley. I'm titled town. Good luck.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: Then, still Mother, anything misty, and there was any este
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: most a man still mother, any mons man's doll,