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Daily Market Podcast Nov 4 · M6 Capital Daily Market Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning.
• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: This is Chris Myers of Williams 6 Capital Management with our daily market letter on Wednesday morning, November 4th.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Walking in this morning, December corn is up a quarter at 442 and three quarters.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: January beans are down five and three quarters at 11.97 and a quarter.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: December meal is down 20 cents, and December crude is down another dollar ninety at 94.20 this morning.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: As far as corn news goes, USDA will issue its next monthly crop production report next Tuesday, November 10th at 11 a.m.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Central Time.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Yesterday, two companies that do farmer surveys released their latest U.S.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: corn estimates.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: Stone X put the U.S.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: corn yield at 183.1 bushels per acre, and SP Global, which is the old Informa or the old Sparks companies, put the yield at 181.0.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_00: The last estimate from USDA was 181.2.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: So these yields would be equal to something a little bigger.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Our data that we collect from university and seed company trials would place the yield between 181 to 182.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: So a big crop gets bigger.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_00: This is much bigger than what we were all worried about in early August.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: Yesterday, South Korea actually bought corn from the U.S.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: off the PNW, Pacific Northwest, for the first time in two months.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: We are told that after this massive break in U.S.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: corn prices, our corn is now competitive to South Korea and Taiwan in the northern Pacific, but not Southern Asian destinations, at least not yet.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: Argentine corn remains the cheapest corn to go to Europe, North Africa, and Southeast Asian destinations.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Peace talks are scheduled in Abu Dhabi, November 10th and 11th between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: One of the key topics will be ocean shipping.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: The market will be watching closely to see if there are any chances of increased corn exports from Ukraine andor wheat exports from Russia.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, CBOT corn is lacking overall direction on its own.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: The last couple of days, it has followed outside markets like crude oil lower, or it's been following soybeans lower.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: I'm still in the camp that rallies should be sold.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: We have had such a massive price break, it will become harder to push this market lower right now.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: However, more grain exports out of Russia and Ukraine, that could actually do the job to push us lower.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: But who knows how that's going to go.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, crops in South America are in good shape, but they have a long, long way to go.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_00: As far as soybean news this morning, the break in crude oil has hit soybean oil the hardest.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: This morning, CBOT soybean oil is trading the lowest price.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: It has traded since early March.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, stocks of palm oil have increased to huge levels in Malaysia, and the Malaysian government is entertaining removing some of their export taxes to help get rid of these excessive stocks.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: That would be bearish for global vegetable prices.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: As for the U.S.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: soybean yield, yesterday Stone X put the yield at 54.1 bushels per acre.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: SP Global put the yield at 53.5.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: Both are up from USDA's yield of 53.1 bushels per acre last month.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: So this record large U.S.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: crop looks to be getting even bigger.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Speculators continue to exit position long positions in CBOT swybeans and swabby meal.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: It seems like the path to least resistance for CBOT soybeans in the near term is steady to slightly lower.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_00: Longer term, the swivel market will be closely watching weather in South America.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Today, that weather is mostly okay.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: As far as weather forecasts go for the U.S., we're on the tail end of the system going across the corn belt.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to slow down harvest for several days.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: Next week looks to be wide open yet again.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: So harvest should pick back up next week and should uh have no issues going forward.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: As far as weather in South America, the state of Paraná in southern Brazil is uh is the focus again.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: And matter of fact, the next 10 days, there are parts of Paraná that have got uh north of five inches of rain supposed to be coming to them.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_00: So Paraná is still too wet.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: Uh farmers have gotten most of their planning done.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: Um I still would like to see less rain there in Paranot.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: The rest of Brazil and Argentina seem like they've got decent moisture um and even into Paraguay.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: So m for most of South America, weather is okay today.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's it for today.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be back tomorrow.