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Iran War Enters a Dangerous New Phase as Trump Pushes for a Deal While U.N. Experts Raise War-Crimes Allegations · USA Daily News

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The war involving the United States and Iran is entering
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: a particularly consequential phase, with military pressure, diplomatic maneuvering, economic disruption,
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: and growing international scrutiny all unfolding at the same time.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: The latest reporting from CBS News describes a conflict that
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: has now continued for more than six months. While President
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump is again saying that Iran wants to reach
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: a deal even as Iranian officials continue to reject the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: idea of an agreement on the terms Washington has been presenting.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: At the same time, a U.N.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Commissioned panel of human rights experts has said there are
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: reasonable grounds to believe that two U.S. strikes in Iran
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: amounted to war crimes, a finding that Washington has not
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: accepted and that U.S. Central Command has previously rejected in
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: broader terms. Those allegations concern two strikes carried out on
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: February 28, the opening day of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: against Iran. One involved the Shajareh Teyebeh Primary School in Minab,
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: where a strike killed large numbers of civilians. while the
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: second involved a strike in Lammard that hit an identifiable
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: sports complex and residential area. The UN-backed mission said at
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: least 178 civilians were killed in the two incidents and
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: argued that there were reasonable grounds to believe the attacks
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: were indiscriminate. The finding is an allegation by an independent
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: international fact-finding body rather than a criminal conviction or judicial judgment.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: and the report also contains findings regarding severe abuses by
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Iranian authorities during their own crackdown.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: The U.S.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Military has repeatedly maintained that it does not intentionally target civilians,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: and preliminary American assessments previously cited by CBS indicated that
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: the Minab school may have been struck accidentally after outdated
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: intelligence reportedly led forces to believe the location remained associated
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: with a military installation. That disagreement over what happened in
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Minib now sits inside a much larger conflict that has
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: produced consequences across the Middle East and far beyond the battlefield. Trump,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: speaking in North Carolina on Wednesday, said he hoped the
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: war was nearing its end and repeated his assertion that
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Iran wants to make a deal. Iranian officials, however, have
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: continued to say that Tehran will not accept an agreement
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: unless Washington addresses conditions that include the U.S. blockade, military presence,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: and other issues tied to the collapse of an earlier memorandum.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: The dispute over those conditions is one reason diplomatic progress
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: has remained elusive. A memorandum signed in June had raised
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: hopes for de-escalation, but the arrangement broke down after the
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: two sides disagreed over implementation, particularly around access through the
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Strait of Hormuz and the continuation of the U.S.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: Naval blockade.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Iran has since insisted that reopening the strategically vital waterway
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: requires an agreement that addresses its demands, while Trump has
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: resisted giving Tehran what his administration considers excessive leverage over
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: international shipping. The result is a stalemate in which the
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: president speaks publicly about negotiations while the military confrontation continues
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: and Iran maintains that Washington must change its approach before
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: meaningful talks can resume. The consequences are increasingly economic. Gasoline
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: and diesel prices in the United States have surged. with
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: CBS reporting a national gasoline average of $ 4. 44 per gallon
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: on September 17 and diesel reaching $ 6. 40, a record according.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: To the cited data.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: The pressure is particularly serious for trucking, agriculture, manufacturing, and
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: businesses that depend heavily on diesel to transport goods. The
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Congressional Budget Office has estimated that U.S. combat operations against
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: Iran had already cost the Defense Department roughly $ 38 billion
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: through August 1, with additional monthly costs potentially reaching about
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: $ 2 billion if combat activity remained at the lower levels
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: seen earlier in the summer and about $ 3 billion if
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: the conflict intensified. CBO also warned that disruptions to oil
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and shipping
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: interruptions around the Red Sea were creating inflationary pressure in
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: the U.S.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Economy.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Those economic effects are arriving at the same time as
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the White House argues that pressure on Iran is necessary.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: To achieve strategic objectives.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: The war is therefore no longer just a military contest
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: between two governments. It is affecting global energy flows, regional allies,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: international diplomacy, American consumers, and the credibility of competing narratives
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: about what the conflict has achieved. Iran says it is
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: resisting a campaign intended to force major political concessions. Washington
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: says the pressure is designed to constrain Iran and prevent
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: it from obtaining strategic capabilities that the administration considers unacceptable.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: The humanitarian and legal dimensions of the conflict have become
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: impossible to separate from the diplomatic debate, especially after the
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: UN-commissioned fact-finding mission publicly raised allegations that the United States
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: may have committed war crimes in two February strikes. The
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: wording of the finding is important. The panel did not
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: announce a criminal conviction, nor does it possess the authority
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: to sentence U.S.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Military personnel.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Instead, It said there were reasonable grounds to believe the
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: United States committed the war crime of launching indiscriminate attacks
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: that caused civilian deaths or injuries and damaged civilian objects.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: The mission identified a strike on the Shijare Teyebe Primary
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: School in Minab as one of the central cases. Earlier
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: reporting had already established that the school was hit on
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: February 28 and that a very large number.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: Of civilians were killed.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: The UN-backed experts said the school strike and another attack
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: in Lammer together resulted in at least 178 civilian deaths.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: The second incident involved precision strike missiles that dispersed tungsten
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: pellets over an area containing an identifiable sports complex and
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: residential buildings. The panel said the two strikes raised serious
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: concerns about whether sufficient precautions had been taken to distinguish
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: military targets from civilians. American officials have offered a different
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: account of the Minib incident, and U.S. Central Command has
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: repeatedly stated that American forces do not intentionally target civilians.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: CBS previously reported that a preliminary U.S. assessment suggested the
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: school may have been hit because American intelligence was outdated
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: and incorrectly indicated that the area was still connected to
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: a military installation. That explanation, if supported by the full evidence,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: would imply an intelligence and targeting failure rather than an
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: intentional attack on children. But under international humanitarian law, the
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: absence of an asserted intention to harm civilians does not
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: automatically resolve every legal question. The critical issues can include
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: whether the target was properly identified, whether precautions were taken,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: whether the expected civilian harm was proportionate to the anticipated
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: military advantage, and whether the attack was directed against a
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: legitimate military objective.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: Those are precisely the.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: Kinds of questions international investigators are examining. The disagreement, therefore,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: cannot be reduced to whether Washington or Tehran simply accepts
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: the finding. It is a matter that may continue through
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: additional investigations, evidence gathering, and legal debate. The same UN
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: mission also made serious findings concerning Iranian state forces. It
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: said killings by Iranian security forces occurred on what it
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: described as a staggering scale, and linked those actions to
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: a wider crackdown on protests inside Iran. That parallel finding
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: is important because it demonstrates that the mission's review was
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: not limited to alleged American conduct. The investigators examined multiple
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: sides of the conflict and raised concerns about violations by
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: both U.S. and Iranian actors. Iranian authorities have disputed outside
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: accusations and have historically argued that violence inside the country
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: is linked to terrorism, foreign interference, or threats to national security.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: The wider international conversation is therefore extremely polarized. but the
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: legal standards involved remain separate from political rhetoric. One allegation
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: does not cancel out another. If an American strike violated
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: international humanitarian law, that issue would have to be considered
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: on its own merits. If Iranian security forces committed unlawful
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: killings or other abuses, those claims would likewise require independent examination.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: The war is generating a large volume of information, much
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: of it politically contested, which makes verification particularly important. Civilian
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: casualties can become central to propaganda efforts on both sides,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: while military organizations often release limited information for operational and
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: security reasons. That creates an environment where early reports can
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: be incomplete or revised. The UN panel's conclusions, therefore, represent
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: an important piece of international documentation, but not the end
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: of the factual or legal process. Washington has not embraced
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: the findings, and the White House and U.S. military had
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: not immediately issued a detailed response to the report according
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: to the CBS update.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: The issue could.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Nevertheless have long-term implications because allegations involving attacks on civilian
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: facilities can influence diplomatic relations, military planning, and future legal proceedings.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: They can also affect public opinion in countries supporting one
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: side or the other. For the United States, accusations of
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: war crimes are especially consequential because Washington routinely emphasizes adherence
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: to international rules and the protection of civilians during military operations.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: The diplomatic dimension of the war is being defined by
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: a contradiction that has become increasingly difficult to ignore. President
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Trump says Iran wants a deal. But Iranian officials continue
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: to say that meaningful negotiations cannot resume unless Washington changes
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: key elements of its policy. Trump has repeatedly stated that
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: pressure will eventually force Tehran into an agreement, and his
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: comments on Wednesday suggested that he believes the conflict may
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: finally be approaching its end. He said he hoped the
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: United States was moving toward the conclusion of the war,
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: signaling at least publicly that diplomacy remains an option. But
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: statements from Tehran indicate that the two sides still disagree
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: over the basic conditions for such a settlement. Iran has
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: insisted that the United States must address the blockade around
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, as well as
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: other military and economic issues, before the country would accept
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: another agreement. Washington has resisted granting Iran control over the
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: waterway or arrangements that the Trump administration believes could allow
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Tehran to dictate the movement of commercial shipping. That disagreement
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: is central because the Strait of Hormuz is one of
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: the most strategically important maritime passages in the world. The
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: waterway connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: and provides a route through which enormous quantities of global
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: oil and gas shipments normally pass. The disruption of that
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: traffic has become one of the most visible economic consequences
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: of the war. Iran has attempted to control who can
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: pass and under what conditions, while the United States has
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: imposed a blockade on commercial ships entering or leaving Iranian
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: ports and has used military assets to monitor and influence
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: maritime movements. CBS reported that U.S. Central Command said the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: blockade had redirected 104 vessels as of September 17. Trump
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: publicly highlighted that figure while praising the military and asserting
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: that no ship going to Iran had successfully broken the blockade. Iran, meanwhile,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: has maintained that it has a right to control the
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: passage through waters under its influence and has sought a
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: separate agreement regarding shipping. The two positions are difficult to
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: reconcile because they involve not just commercial navigation but sovereign
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: authority and military control. The collapse of the June memorandum
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: illustrates the problem. The agreement briefly created the possibility of
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: a ceasefire and reopening of the waterway, but disputes over
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: implementation soon destroyed the arrangement. Iran accused the United States
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: of violating the agreement by keeping its naval blockade in place,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: while Washington viewed Tehran's actions around maritime traffic as evidence
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: that Iran was not prepared to cooperate on American terms.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Once the memorandum collapsed, the conflict returned to a pattern
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: in which military pressure continued while diplomatic channels remained limited.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Yet diplomacy has not disappeared entirely. The United States has
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: approved visas for Iran's president and foreign minister to attend
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: the upcoming UN General Assembly high-level meetings in New York,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: despite the ongoing war. The State Department said the approval
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: was consistent with America's obligations as host of the United
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: Nations while imposing travel restrictions and limits on purchases. That
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: decision is notable because it keeps an official Iranian delegation
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: within reach of American diplomatic institutions at a moment when
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: direct negotiations.
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: Over the war are stalled.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: It creates at least one international setting in which representatives
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: from both countries can be present, even if no breakthrough
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: is currently visible. China is also positioning itself as a
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: possible mediator. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with U.S.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the Middle East situation,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: according to Chinese state media, just days before Trump is
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington. Beijing
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: has increasingly presented itself as a potential bridge between countries
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: involved in the conflict. although the strategic competition between China
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: and the United States complicates that role. The administration is
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: also planning meetings with Gulf leaders during the UN General
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: Assembly to discuss post-war strategy. Those conversations are likely to
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: involve not only Iran, but also regional security, oil flows,
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: and the future of maritime routes. Gulf countries have been
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: directly affected by Iranian missile and drone attacks during the war,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: while many also host American military forces. Saudi Arabia, in particular,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: has faced attacks on infrastructure and shipping routes. The possibility
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: of a diplomatic settlement therefore affects much more than Tehran
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: and Washington. One of the clearest signs that the war
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: is becoming a global economic problem is the surge in
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: fuel prices and the continuing disruption of the energy routes
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: that connect the Persian Gulf and Red Sea to the
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: rest of the world. CBS reported that U.S. gasoline prices
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: climbed to a national average of $ 4. 44 per gallon on
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: September 17, while diesel reached a record $ 6.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: 40.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Those numbers matter because diesel is not simply a transportation
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: fuel for individual motorists. It is fundamental to the movement
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: of food, agricultural products, construction materials, manufactured goods, and countless
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: other commodities. Trucks rely on diesel. Farmers use diesel-powered equipment.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Delivery networks depend on it. Commercial fleets consume it. When
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: diesel prices rise rapidly, higher costs can eventually work their
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: way into the prices of goods and services across the economy.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Gasoline has a more visible impact on consumers, but diesel
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: can produce a deeper supply chain effect because freight transportation
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: is woven into nearly every part of the American economy.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: The current price shock is connected to the broader conflict
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: because oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: disrupted while shipping through the Red Sea has also faced
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: heightened threats. The Congressional Budget Office has explicitly identified those
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: disruptions as a major source of the conflict's economic impact.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: CBO estimated that reduced shipments of oil and natural gas
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: through the Strait of Hormuz and intensified disruptions to Red
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: Sea shipping were contributing to inflationary pressure in the United States.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: The agency calculated that higher energy costs added 2.3 percentage
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: points to the annualized rate of overall PCE inflation in
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: the second quarter of 2026, when PCE inflation stood at 5.3%.
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: That is a substantial effect, although CBO expects the direct
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: energy contribution to diminish if energy prices decline. The danger
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: is that the initial shock can spread gradually into other sectors.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Higher fuel costs increase transportation expenses. Transportation costs affect wholesalers.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Wholesalers pass costs to retailers. Businesses then weigh whether to
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: absorb those increases or raise prices. Some companies may cut margins,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: delay hiring, or reduce investment instead. This is how an
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: external energy shock can become a broader economic problem. The
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: conflict is also putting pressure on government finances. CBO estimates
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: that the Defense Department had spent approximately $ 38 billion on
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: the conflict through August 1. That estimate includes ammunition replacement,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: equipment losses, increased flying hours, operations, and higher fuel costs.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: It does not include every government expense associated with the war.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: And the agency emphasizes that there is considerable uncertainty around
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: the calculations, because the Department of Defense did not provide
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: all the information requested by CBO. Nevertheless, the scale of
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: the estimate shows how quickly a prolonged military campaign can
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: become expensive. CBO also estimated that if the level of
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: fighting remained similar to the relatively quieter conditions experienced in
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: May and June, another month of conflict could cost about
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: $ 2 billion. If the intensity rose to the level experienced
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: in July, monthly costs could increase to.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: Roughly $ 3 billion.
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: Those figures would rise further if the conflict escalated beyond
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: those levels. The energy disruption creates another cost because higher
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: inflation can push interest rates higher. CBO said Treasury interest
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: rates could remain above previous projections because of the war's
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: inflationary effects. That means the consequences of the conflict can
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: flow into federal borrowing costs as well. When interest rates rise,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: the Treasury may eventually pay more to refinance debt. Businesses
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: pay more for credit. Households pay more for mortgages and
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: consumer loans. Investors adjust valuations. The entire financial environment can shift.
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: This makes the Strait of Hormuz more than a military chokepoint.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: It is a financial pressure point. Any sustained interruption affects
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: the price of crude oil, tanker availability, insurance costs, and
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: the willingness of commercial carriers to operate in exposed waters.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: The Red Sea adds a second vulnerability because the Bab
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: el-Mandeb Strait is another major shipping route. CBS reported that
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: fighting in Yemen had intensified and that Houthi forces were
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: pushing to expand their control along the western coast toward
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: the Bab el-Mandeb. That raises the possibility that two critical
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: maritime corridors could remain under pressure at the same time.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: The economic implications are global. Europe, Asia, Africa, and the
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: Americas all depend on the movement of energy and manufactured
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: goods through interconnected shipping networks. A disruption in one region
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: can force vessels to reroute, increasing travel distances and fuel
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: consumption and creating bottlenecks elsewhere. shipping companies may also increase
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: insurance rates when risks rise. The military dimension of the
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: conflict remains active even as political leaders talk about negotiations
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: and recent incidents involving American drones. Commercial vessels and regional
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: bases demonstrate how easily the war could become more dangerous. U.S.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: officials told CBS News that Iranian forces had brought down
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: at least two American MQs one unmanned aircraft in recent days.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: The exact locations were not disclosed, and officials did not
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: publicly identify the precise variant involved.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: The U.S.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Military has operated multiple MQ-1 systems, including the Predator and
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the larger Gray Eagle, both of which can perform intelligence, surveillance,
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: and reconnaissance missions and can also carry weapons. Their usefulness
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: in the region is considerable because remotely piloted aircraft can
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: remain over an area for long periods, monitor shipping routes,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: track military activity, and provide intelligence. Their loss, therefore, represents
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: more than the destruction of individual aircraft. It indicates that
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: Iranian air defenses or other military capabilities remain capable of
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: challenging American assets after months of warfare. The downing of
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: drones also creates a potential escalation problem because unmanned aircraft
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: often operate in contested spaces where the boundary between surveillance
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: and combat becomes difficult to distinguish from the perspective of
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: an opponent. Iran may view such operations as evidence of
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: continuing American military pressure, while the United States may regard
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: them as routine intelligence missions necessary to protect its forces
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: and shipping interests. That difference in perception can create conditions
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: in which relatively small incidents become triggers for larger responses.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: The maritime environment is even more sensitive. CBS reported an
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz late Thursday,
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: with the maritime security organization UK Maritime Trade Operations saying
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: the crew was safe. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps separately
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: claimed that it had struck a ship making what it
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: called an illegal passage, although it was unclear whether that
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: claim referred to the same incident. The uncertainty matters because
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: commercial shipping relies on clear rules and reliable information. If
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: vessel operators do not know which ships are at risk,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: which routes are approved, or how military forces will interpret
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: their movements, they may avoid the waterway altogether. That avoidance
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: increases shipping costs and can put further pressure on global
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: energy markets. Iran has been demanding that commercial ships seek
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: permission and follow regime-approved routes through the strait. The United States, meanwhile,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: says it is using military forces to monitor the waterway
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: and redirect ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. Each side
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: is therefore asserting a degree of control that the other
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: side rejects. the possibility of miscalculation is significant. A captain
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: navigating a commercial tanker does not have the same information
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: as a naval commander. A drone operator may interpret radar
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: activity differently from an Iranian air defense unit. A military
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: convoy may regard a particular route as necessary for security
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: while Iran sees the same movement as a violation of
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: its authority. In a heavily militarized waterway, those conflicting interpretations
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: can generate rapid escalation. The war is also creating pressure
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: beyond Iran's immediate borders. Saudi Arabia has come under drone
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: threats associated with Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, while the
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: United States has increased security cooperation with regional allies. The
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: Houthi expansion along Yemen's Red Sea coast has become especially
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: important because the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, like Hormuz, is a
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: vital shipping choke point. CBS reported that more than 100,000
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: people had been displaced in Yemen during the first two
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: weeks of September, including tens of thousands of children, as
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: fighting intensified between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Reuters later reported similar developments, describing a growing humanitarian crisis
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: and continuing attacks between the Houthis and Saudi forces. The
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: conflict in Yemen is therefore not simply a separate civil war.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: It is becoming increasingly linked to the larger U.S.-Iran confrontation
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: because the Houthis are aligned with Tehran and because the
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: group's military activities can affect regional trade routes. Saudi Arabia
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: has also suffered civilian consequences. Its civil defense agency said
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: one person was killed by debris from an intercepted Houthi
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: drone in Taif Governorate, while two others were injured. Saudi
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: officials had accused the Houthis of targeting Mecca, although the
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Houthis denied that allegation and Iran supported their denial. These
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: conflicting accounts are another example of the information environment surrounding
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: the war. Claims can emerge quickly, while independent verification may
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: take longer. The conflict is also reshaping relations between the
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: United States and its allies, and the latest developments show
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: that countries caught between Washington— Tehran and the wider regional
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: crisis are increasingly trying to protect their own interests without
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: being pulled deeper into the war. South Korea provides a
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: clear example. President Lee Jae-myung said his country would not
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: deploy troops to intervene in the conflict, even though Seoul
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: has been examining ways to protect commercial shipping and merchant
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: vessels in areas affected by the war. His statement followed
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: reports that South Korea was considering deploying forces to the
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: Strait of Hormuz a possibility that raised questions about whether
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: an American ally might become more directly involved. Lee emphasized
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: that South Korea would continue a policy of non-involvement and
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: non-intervention while carrying out only the minimum necessary activities to
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: protect its ships and oil routes. That position illustrates a
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: broader strategic dilemma. U.S. allies may have strong reasons to
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: cooperate with Washington, especially when their own energy supplies and
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: commercial shipping are threatened, but military participation carries risks that
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: governments must evaluate independently. South Korea has an alliance with
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: the United States, yet it also has economic interests tied
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: to Asian trade and energy supplies. Direct involvement in the
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: war could expose South Korean personnel to Iranian attacks or
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: retaliation from Iranian-aligned groups. It could also complicate Seoul's other
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: foreign policy priorities. The same challenge is facing Gulf states.
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia hosts American military forces but has simultaneously been
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: directly targeted by Iranian-aligned Houthi attacks. Riyadh wants the United
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: States to maintain regional security, but it also needs to
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: protect its own population, oil infrastructure, and shipping routes. The
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: recent drone incident in Taif, which Saudi officials said killed
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: a Yemeni national when debris fell after an interception, demonstrates
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: how the danger can reach civilian areas even when a
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: missile or drone is successfully stopped. Saudi Arabia is also
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: dealing with another major strategic issue, the control of the
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Bab al-Mandeb region by Houthi forces. If the Houthis maintain
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: their grip on the Red Sea coast, they could influence
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: an important maritime route that connects the Indian Ocean to
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal. That creates an overlap
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: between the security problems around Hormuz and the Red Sea.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: The United States is therefore trying to manage multiple maritime
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: challenges simultaneously, which increases demands on military resources and regional partnerships.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: The decision by South Korea not to intervene militarily also
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: shows that Washington may not receive all the support it wants.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: Trump has complained publicly about the limited assistance offered by
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: other countries and has singled out U.S. allies for not
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: doing enough. But the behavior of allied governments is determined
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: by more than American requests. They must consider their own populations.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: military capabilities, and domestic political environments. NATO members and Asian
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: allies may support US security objectives while still drawing a
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: line at direct combat. This creates a layered coalition in
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: which countries provide different kinds of assistance rather than all
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: participating in the same way. Some may provide intelligence. Others
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: may protect commercial vessels. Others may contribute logistics, air defense capabilities,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: or humanitarian assistance. Still others may remain formally outside the fighting.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: The United Nations adds another layer. Despite the war, the
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: United States has agreed to admit senior Iranian officials to
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: New York for the UN General Assembly. Iran's President Massoud
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: Pazeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi are among those approved
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: to attend, with restrictions on movement and purchases. The fact
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: that Iranian leaders will be physically present in the United
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: States while the two countries remain at war is extraordinary,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: but also illustrates why international institutions still matter during conflict.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Diplomatic forums provide opportunities for direct contact, indirect negotiations and
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: communication through other governments. China is also exploring a diplomatic role.
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: Wang Yi's call with Marco Rubio, just days before Trump
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: and Xi are due to meet, demonstrates how the conflict
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: is becoming part of the broader U.S.-China relationship. China has
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: presented itself as a possible mediator, but Beijing also has
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: strategic interests of its own. It wants regional instability contained
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: because disruptions threaten global trade and energy supplies, while at
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: the same time it has long-standing ties with Iran and
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: increasing competition with the United States. Washington, meanwhile, is watching
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Beijing closely because of allegations that China may have provided
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Iran with satellite imagery related to American military positions. The
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: war is also generating increasing pressure inside Iran itself. where
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: government officials are acknowledging the economic hardship caused by the conflict, sanctions,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: and the disruption of trade. Iran's Vice President Mohammad Reza
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Arif publicly apologized to the population for the worsening cost
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: of living, saying that household incomes, particularly for wage earners,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: are no longer keeping pace with expenses. His remarks were
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: notable because they represented a rare admission from a senior
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Iranian official that ordinary families are being squeezed by rapidly
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: rising prices. He described inflation as a serious problem and
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: warned that there were no quick fixes. That statement provides
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: a window into the domestic consequences of the war from
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Iran's perspective. Tehran is not only dealing with airstrikes and
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: military pressure, it is also confronting the effects of sanctions,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: restrictions on trade, disrupted oil exports, and a naval blockade
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: that limits the movement of goods. Economic warfare can be
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: difficult to see on television compared with missile launches, but
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: over time it can be just as consequential. When imports
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: become more expensive or difficult to obtain, businesses can experience shortages.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: When transportation routes are disrupted, basic goods become harder to move.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: When currency values weaken and inflation accelerates, wages can lose
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: purchasing power. And when uncertainty becomes widespread, companies may delay
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: investment and households may cut consumption. Araf's statement suggests that
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: those pressures are being felt broadly among Iranian wage earners.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: The Trump administration has openly embraced economic pressure as one
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: of the tools it believes can force Tehran to accept
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: a deal. Trump has repeatedly argued that the combination of
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: military pressure and economic isolation will eventually make Iran surrender
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: or agree to Washington's terms. Iran has so far resisted
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: that expectation. Its government continues to present the war as
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: a conflict over sovereignty and national survival, and officials have
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: refused to accept the basic conditions Washington has demanded. That
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: resistance has an economic cost, but Tehran appears to believe
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: that conceding under pressure could have even greater strategic consequences.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: The domestic debate within Iran is difficult to measure because
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: the government controls much of the official information environment and
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: because the war creates strong incentives for patriotic messaging. Yet
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: the Vice President's admission of economic hardship suggests that the
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: authorities' no public pressure is real. That matters because wars
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: can be sustained through military capability only if political systems
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: can withstand economic strain and public frustration. The Iranian government
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: is therefore facing a complex challenge. It must maintain military resistance,
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: manage inflation, keep essential goods moving, and convince its population
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: that the sacrifices of the war are justified. At the
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: same time, it is trying to preserve enough leverage to
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: negotiate without appearing to capitulate to American demands. That balancing
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: act is made harder by the Strait of Hormuz situation.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: Keeping the waterway under restrictive conditions may provide Tehran with
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: strategic leverage and but it also risks hurting Iran's own
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: economy and alienating countries whose trade depends on passage. The
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: same pressure affects Gulf states, but Iran has to consider
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: it from the perspective of a country already under sanctions.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: If its access to energy markets becomes more restricted, its
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: fiscal position could deteriorate further. The United States faces a
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: parallel but different economic challenge. American consumers are paying more
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: at the pump, farmers are paying more for fuel and fertilizer,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: businesses are paying higher transportation costs, and the federal government
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: is spending billions more on combat operations. The result is
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: an unusual situation in which both sides can claim to
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: be applying economic pressure while both societies absorb substantial costs.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: The difference lies in how each government evaluates those costs
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: and what political objectives it believes they will produce. For Washington,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: higher economic costs may be considered acceptable if they force
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: Iran into a strategic settlement. For Tehran, enduring those costs
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: may be considered necessary if the alternative is an agreement
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: viewed as surrender. This creates a war of endurance as
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: much as a war of military capabilities. The longer the
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: conflict lasts, the more important public resilience becomes. In Iran,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: rising prices can increase pressure on the government. In the
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: United States, rising gasoline and diesel prices can change public
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: attitudes toward the war. The CBS reports interview with a
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: North Carolina farmer who initially supported the conflict but now
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: says he feels misled illustrates this dynamic. Yemen has become
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: another major front in the expanding regional crisis, and the
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: latest developments there show how the Iran war is affecting
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: countries far beyond the original battlefield. According to UNICEF figures
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: cited by CBS News, more than 104,000 people were displaced
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: in Yemen during the first two weeks of September alone,
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: including more than 57,000 children. Those figures are especially significant
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: because Yemen was already suffering from one of the world's
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: most serious humanitarian crises— before the latest escalation. The renewed
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: fighting between Iran-backed Houthi forces and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: has created a new wave of displacement while also increasing
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: the strategic importance of the country's coastline. Houthi fighters have
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: seized additional territory along the western coast, including the key
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: coastal city of Mocha, and have been pushing towards strategically
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: important positions overlooking the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. That waterway is
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: essential to global trade because it connects the Red Sea
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: with the Gulf of Aden and, ultimately, the Indian Ocean.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Ships using the Suez Canal route often pass through the
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Bab el-Mandeb, meaning that instability there can affect trade between Asia, Europe,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: and the Middle East. The Houthis' expanding control of the coastline, therefore,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: gives Iran-aligned forces another potential lever over global shipping. The
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: group has said that certain tanker traffic can remain safe
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: while also warning or attacking Saudi-linked vessels, and Saudi officials
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: have expressed concern that Houthi statements about safe navigation may
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: be intended to buy time for military preparations. Those competing
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: claims illustrate how maritime security has become deeply entangled with
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: military strategy. Control of the coastline can be used not
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: only to launch attacks, but also to influence which ships
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: feel safe enough to travel. That can have economic consequences
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: even when no commercial vessel is actually struck.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: If insurers classify a.
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: Route as dangerous, premiums rise. If shipping companies reroute vessels
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: around the Cape of Good Hope, journeys become longer and
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: more expensive. If carriers reduce service, supply chains can tighten.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: The effect is especially significant when the same broader war
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: is already disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: pressure on two major maritime corridors simultaneously creates a systemic
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: risk for global commerce. The economic impact is not theoretical.
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: The Congressional Budget Office has already identified Red Sea shipping
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: disruptions as part of the conflict's inflationary effect on the
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: United States. Yemen therefore matters not only because of humanitarian
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: suffering but because the country has become a strategic component
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: of the global energy and trade system. The humanitarian consequences
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: are equally severe. UNICEF said more than 100,000 people had
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: been forced from their homes within just two weeks, with
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: children making up more than half of those displaced. Many
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: families reportedly fled with few possessions, adding another layer of
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: instability to communities that have already endured years of conflict.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: food insecurity, and disrupted schooling. More displacement means greater demand
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: for shelters, food, medicine, and sanitation services. It also increases
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: the risk that children will lose access to education and
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: that families will remain displaced for months or years. Those
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: consequences can continue even after the immediate fighting stops. The
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: longer the conflict persists the harder it becomes for displaced
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: populations to return safely and rebuild their homes. The military
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: developments in Yemen are also directly connected to Saudi Arabia.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: Saudi-backed government forces are fighting to regain territory, while Riyadh
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: is conducting airstrikes and attempting to prevent the Houthis from
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: consolidating control over the Red Sea coast. Saudi officials recently
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: said that one person was killed when debris from an
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: intercepted Houthi drone fell in Taif province, and that two
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: others were injured. Separately, Saudi Arabia accused the Houthis of
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: launching a drone toward Mecca, an allegation the Houthis denied.
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: Iran supported the Houthi denial and suggested that the Saudi
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: accusation could be part of a false flag operation, while
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Saudi officials maintained that the drone had been intercepted. Because
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: the claims were not independently established in the reporting, the
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: prudent conclusion is that the incident remains contested. What is
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: not contested is the broader pattern of escalation. The Houthis
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: are increasingly active, Saudi Arabia is responding militarily, and civilians
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: are being affected. This regional extension makes a U.S.-Iran settlement
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: more difficult because Tehran's influence is not limited to its
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: own territory. Iranian-aligned groups operate in multiple countries, and their
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: actions can continue shaping events even if direct U.S.-Iran fighting decreases.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: The United Nations has now become one of the central
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: arenas in which the Iran war is being contested diplomatically,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: legally and politically, and events at the organization this week
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: show how divided the international community remains. One of the
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: most significant developments was Russia and China's veto of a
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: resolution that would have extended the mandate of UN experts
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: responsible for monitoring sanctions on Iran. The sanctions were reimposed
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: under the snapback mechanism associated with the 2015 nuclear agreement
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: after Western governments accused Tehran of violating its nuclear commitments.
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: Iran has rejected those accusations and has argued that Western
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: powers have used the nuclear issue to justify broader political pressure.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: The United States wanted the independent monitoring mandate extended for
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: another year. but the proposal failed because Russia and China
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: voted against it. This is significant because independent monitoring provides
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: a mechanism for documenting sanctions violations and reporting what happens
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: after sanctions are imposed. Without that mechanism, governments will have
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: fewer internationally recognized tools for verifying compliance. Supporters of the
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: panel argue that monitoring is necessary, because sanctions can only
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: be effective when violations can be identified and documented. Russia
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: and China have criticized what they view as Western efforts
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: to use the Security Council to impose or preserve sanctions
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: without adequate diplomatic consensus. Their veto demonstrates that the Iran
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: conflict has created a wider geopolitical division in which Moscow
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: and Beijing increasingly challenge Washington and its European partners. That
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: split extends beyond sanctions. China is also presenting itself as
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: a possible mediator in the war, while Russia continues to
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: coordinate with Iran on diplomatic issues. The upcoming meeting between
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping adds another dimension. Washington
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: wants Beijing to use its influence in ways that support
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: regional stability and discourage Iran from exploiting economic relationships to
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: evade American pressure. Beijing wants to maintain its relationship with
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: Tehran and protect global trade while also avoiding a wider
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: war that could damage its own economy. The two interests
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: overlap enough to permit conversations but not enough to guarantee agreement.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: The UN General Assembly creates another unusual diplomatic setting. The
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: United States has granted visas to senior Iranian officials, including
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: President Massoud Pazeshkin and Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi, so they
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: can attend the high-level UN meetings in New York. The
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: decision is especially notable because the two countries remain at
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: war and direct bilateral.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: Negotiations have stalled.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: Yet the US government is bound by its obligations as
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: host of the United Nations, and officials said the Iranian
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: delegation would attend under travel restrictions and reduced purchasing privileges.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: This means that within days, representatives of Washington and Tehran
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: may occupy the same international environment even while their militaries
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: continue operating against each other. Whether that proximity produces any
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: diplomatic movement remains unknown, but it creates channels for private
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: conversations that would be difficult to establish otherwise. Trump is
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: also expected to meet with leaders from Persian Gulf countries
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: during the UN General Assembly. According to reporting cited by CBS,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: discussions are expected to focus on a post-war strategy even
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: though there is no clear indication that a new agreement
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: with Iran is close. The Gulf governments have been under
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: pressure for months because Iranian missiles and drones have struck
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: targets across the region. They host American military bases and
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: rely heavily on secure oil and shipping routes. At the
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: same time, they have strong economic incentives to prevent an
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: indefinite war. The Gulf states, therefore, have to balance support
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: for U.S. security objectives against the need to keep their
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: economies functioning. Saudi Arabia's decision to move ahead with the
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: purchase of 48 American F-35A fighter jets illustrates one part
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: of that calculation. The State Department said the proposed $ 24. 3
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: billion sale would strengthen Saudi Arabia's ability to deter current
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: and future threats and improve cooperation with U.S.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: Forces.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Such a major weapons purchase signals that regional governments are
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: preparing for the possibility that the security environment will remain
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: dangerous even if direct fighting ends. The legal controversy over
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: possible war crimes adds yet another dimension to the international debate.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: The UN-backed fact-finding mission's findings regarding U.S. strikes have placed
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: Washington under scrutiny at the same organization where American diplomats
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: are attempting to coordinate sanctions and regional strategy. Iranian officials
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: are likely to use the report to reinforce their narrative
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: that the United States is responsible for civilian sufferings. The
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: latest picture of the Iran war is therefore one of
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: simultaneous pressure and uncertainty, with no single development yet strong
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: enough to determine how the conflict will end. President Donald
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Trump says Iran wants a deal and has expressed hope
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: that the war is approaching its final stage, but Iranian
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: officials continue to reject an agreement unless Washington addresses core
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: issues surrounding the blockade— military presence and.
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: The Strait of Hormuz.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: The United States continues military operations and maritime enforcement, while
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Iranian forces remain capable of challenging American assets, including by
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: downing unmanned aircraft. The Houthi movement in Yemen is expanding
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: its territorial control and helping to create another security crisis
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Saudi Arabia is strengthening its
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: defenses and and moving toward a major purchase of American
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: F-35 fighter jets. South Korea is declining to intervene militarily
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: even while preparing to protect its commercial shipping. Russia and
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: China are challenging U.S.-backed sanctions monitoring at the United Nations.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Senior Iranian officials are preparing to attend the UN General
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: Assembly in New York under restrictions imposed by Washington. And
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: an international fact-finding panel has raised allegations that two U.S.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: strikes in Iran may constitute war crimes, while also accusing
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: Iranian authorities of serious abuses inside Iran. Taken together, those
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: developments show that the conflict has become a system of
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: interconnected military, economic, and diplomatic struggles rather than a straightforward
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: confrontation between two armed forces. The possibility of negotiations remains
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: real because both sides continue to communicate through public statements.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: and indirect channels, but a path toward settlement has not
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: yet been established. The June memorandum demonstrated how quickly a
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: potential agreement can collapse when both sides interpret the obligations differently.
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: Iran believed the United States violated the arrangement by maintaining
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: its blockade. Washington believed Iranian behavior around maritime traffic undermined
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: the agreement. The resulting mistrust now colors every new proposal.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: For a deal to succeed, both governments would need to
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: find terms that address the central concerns without creating the
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: appearance of surrender. That is especially difficult because both leaders
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: are operating under political pressure at home. Trump faces rising
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: gasoline and diesel prices, the cost of military operations, and
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: public debates over the purpose and duration of the war.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Iranian leaders face high inflation, economic hardship, and the continuing
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: challenge of maintaining public support under sanctions and military pressure.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Each side, therefore, has incentives to claim that it is
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: holding firm while portraying the other as responsible for prolonging
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: the conflict. The economic data show why the pressure matters.
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: Gasoline in the United States has reached roughly $ 4. 44 per gallon.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Diesel has reached $ 6. 40. And CBO estimates that the Pentagon's
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: direct costs had already reached approximately $ 38 billion.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: By August 1.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: Those numbers do not determine foreign policy, but they show
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: that war has measurable financial consequences. CBO has also warned
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: that energy disruptions are increasing inflationary pressure and raising borrowing costs.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: In Iran, senior officials are publicly acknowledging that household incomes
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: are failing to keep pace with living expenses. Yemen is
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: experiencing a new wave of displacement involving more than 100,000
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: people in a matter of weeks. These are not abstract
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: strategic calculations. They are concrete costs borne by families, businesses, soldiers, refugees,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: and governments. The international legal dimension adds another serious concern.
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: The UN commissioned panels finding that there are reasonable grounds
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: to believe the United States committed war crimes in two
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: strikes does not by itself establish criminal liability, but it
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: creates a formal international record that could influence future investigations
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: and diplomatic discussions. The United States has rejected the broader
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: idea that its forces intentionally target civilians, and previous American
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: assessments have suggested that the Minab school strike may have
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: resulted from an intelligence failure. Those differing accounts will remain
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: part of the record until more evidence is available. The
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: same standard should apply to other disputed incidents throughout the war.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Allegations involving Iranian attacks, Houthi operations, or civilian casualties are
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: should be treated as claims until independently substantiated. The complexity
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: of the conflict makes careful distinctions especially important because misinformation
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: can spread faster than verified evidence. The future of the
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: war may also depend heavily on maritime developments. If the
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, the economic pressure will continue.