Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Super Bowl LVIII Betting Preview

Transcript

Super Bowl LVIII Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: is the first of our Super Bowl preview episodes. I
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: We've got the San Francisco forty nine ers and the
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. We've got Kyle Shanahan trying to heal
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: those festering old Super Bowl wounds. Twice a coach in
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the Super Bowl as a coordinator and then as a
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: head coach giving up huge leads. Don't forget he was
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: the coach of the coordinator for the Falcons when they
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: blew that massive lead to Tom Brady and the Patriots.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: He's got a quarterback who can finally execute the entirety
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: of his brilliant offensive scheme. Oh, he's got to beat
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Andy Reid. Probably on a track to be top three
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: all time NFL coach Patrick Mahomes the entirety of the
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Taylor Swift universe. He is not battling one team in
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: this game. He is battling all time greatness. In this game,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: an offense that is dominated all season long is favored
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: against the quarterback who may already only have one legacy.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: He is chasing Tom Brady. We are going to kick
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: off the hype machine. Also later in the show, we
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: will shout out some of the best listeners submissions we've
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: received so far in our Bet three six ' five
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: super Bowl prop contest. If you want a chance to
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: see your custom made Super Bowl prop bet posted on
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five, stay tuned for details in the show. Man.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: That is a wind up from my bff, my co host,
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: my companion, Mike Capadre. Professional better signon under you know, Simon.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: Chad super Bowl weeks. Baby, So good to be.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Here, dude, you are so famous. This podcast has gotten
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: so big. Tell everybody what just happened to you in
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: your tiny, tiny island of Hawaii.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: I'll try to make it a quick story, but I
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: basically I'm a psychopath and me chat finish for our show. Sunday,
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: I go right into super Bowl mode and you know,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: start working on the phone, start watching film, and I
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: basically just pull an all nighter. It's just I'm a
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: creature of habit. I've done it all season. I like
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: to stay up through Sunday night into Monday, and then
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: I'll eat an unhealthy amount of food that midday Monday,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: and then I'll just sleep until you see me right now.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: So I literally stay up and then I just sleep
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: from midday Monday until seven am five am depends on
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: our showtime Tuesday. And I always order a big meal,
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: and obviously I don't drive because I'm not an idiot.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: I know how many people be get injured, drive and
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: sleep deprived. I always ordered delivery. So when I order
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: on my name name on the site, it's Simon H.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: So I ordered food and apparently this guy is a
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: fan of our show. Saw this order for Simon H.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: And he lives in Mawe. So he put it together
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: and he pulled up and he saw my car with
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: new Jersey license plate. So I told Chat it was funny.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: When he came up, my door's open and like letting
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: the wind in. Instead of knocking, he just said my name,
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: which again is normal because it's on the back. So
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: I just popped out because I'm obviously who is not
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: excited for their food delivery. There's a few better feelings
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: they can finally get in your food. And turns out
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: he's a fan of me and Chat and our show
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: couldn't have been a nicer guy.
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: You know.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: Of course remembered a couple of my bad beats, a
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: couple of my bad bets on the Jets and Panthers,
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: and wanted to bring that up and why we wanted
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: to bet them so bad this season. But was also
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: just crazy, nice guy and just pretty surreal how big
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: this show has gotten. So I want to give a
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: shout to our guy, Brian. He's a scuba diver master
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: instructor here in MAUI Google him, hit him up. I mean,
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: he seemed like a really cool dude, and he gave
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: me a business card and on here it says he's
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: certified dives and he does turtle dives, he does kayak dives,
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: he does shipwreck dives. He does it all so really
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: cool dude, and he's living all our dream chat. He
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: just hangs out, dives in Hawaii and bets on football.
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: Not a bad life.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: December third, twenty three, that is the day that we
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: decided to bet both the Jets and the Panthers on
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the same day. I will never forget it. Shout out
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: to all our fans in the great state of Hawaii.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's just fantastic, not scary at all. Simon.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Over the next two weeks, we will determine once and
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: for all, have we learned our lesson when it comes
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: to betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. As a
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. That's
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: why you get more boosts with them than with anyone else.
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  Speaker 1: Every day they power up the odds on hundreds of
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• 5:33
  Speaker 1: out the boost and see why it's never ordinary at
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: and present in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply, and don't forget every episode
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: of The Favorites Live on You two. For those enjoying,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. You to page. Look, there's one game.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: It's not being played for another ten days, and right
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: now the Kansas City Chiefs are one and a half
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: point underdogs to the San Francisco forty nine Ers. Here's
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: a little reminder of how far we've come in terms
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: of coverage of betting in the media. During the championship game,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Tony Romo started talking about how if he's a bookmaker,
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: there's no way he's ever making Patrick Mahomes an underdog.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: And yet the Chiefs opened at two and a half.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: At three. For about four minutes, you got the three.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I did not went down to two and a half,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: then two, then one and a half, Like it's basically
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: at one and a half. In holding, I've been doing research.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: You've been doing research for the past thirty six hours.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: We definitely do it differently. I haven't stayed up all night,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: eating one meal and then gone back to bed. I
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: can't see any reason why I wouldn't want to bet
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: Obviously, there's a lot that goes into it. First time,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: we start by saying I've heard a lot of people
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: complaining about this season. I don't know if you've heard
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: this people complaining that this season wasn't that fun and
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: kind of a boring season because it ended up being
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: forty nine Ers versus Chiefs. Come on, man, I feel
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: like this was such a great season. We had a
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: Puka and Nakua come out of nowhere, break all these
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: rookie receiving records. That was pretty amazing. CJ. Stroud, pretty
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: amazing rookie season. The fact that we had the Browns
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: and the Lions in the playoffs and people were kind
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: of scared of them was pretty amazing. I felt like
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: it was a great season. And the perspective of, yes,
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: does it suck that we're having a rematch from five
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: years ago instead of having the Lions versus the Chiefs. Yeah,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: we all wanted the Lions there. I agree with that part.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: But I love Super Bowls like people getting bogged down
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: because it's the same old teams that are always in there.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: It's annoying to me. So, like you just talked about
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: the public everyone pros. I just felt like when that
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: we talked Sunday night, it was like, Okay, the money's
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: gonna come on the Chiefs. Even though the Chiefs didn't
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: play the perfect game. The Mahomes factor is just so
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: above anything else the forty Niners could have done. I
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: believe you know, if the Fortyniners would have blown out
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: and rolled the Lions, I still could see this number
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: moving the way it had. But the fact that the
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers back to back weeks are getting thrown
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: on by Jordan Love and thrown on by golf, it
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: makes sense, right this number would come down. I'm looking
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: our app right now. All the money, all the bets
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: jet are on the Chiefs, and you know, I talked
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: to a couple of professionals. They were happy to wait
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: it out. They like the forty nine ers. They'll let
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: the money come in and they'll wait and they'll come
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: on the other side. And a couple of them that
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: bit the bullet and made the bet on the forty
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: nine ers. So the keeps bouncing now from one and
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: a half to two, and it makes sense. It's like,
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: if you have a model, the forty nine ers are
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: going to be the better team. They have the more
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: complete team. And me and Chad both know why that is.
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: One team is spending twenty five percent of their money
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: on one quarterback. The other team has a seventh round,
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: last pick in the draft. Rookie contract, what does he
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: make a nine hundred k a year? Perty Like, it's
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: it's Apple's oranges, right, Like every everyone's gonna have it
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: constructed that the forty Niners are the better team. No
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: one's disagreeing with that. If you're a forty Niners fan,
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: that's that's what you're believing in this game. It's like
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: you have the better team. But me and Chad joked
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: about it, it's it's not that hard. We're getting Mahomes,
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: the dog. Mahomes is the X factor. He's the best player.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: So what I've done watching the film, I really what
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: I was looking for in the film is what is
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: wrong with this forty nine Ers secondary? And I do
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: think Baltimore kind of the blueprint on what to do
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: against the secondary of forty nine ers. If you watched
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: since that game, different teams have attacked in the same way,
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: which is it's not so much running just downfield, it's
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: running downfield and cutting back into the middle. So they've
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: they pretty much have found I mean, any team can
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: look at it that. It's like these guys like Fred Warner,
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: he steps up right he's really been protecting it against
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: the runner of the tight end. The middle of that
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: open field. They don't have the best safeties this FORRTNAS team,
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Like the middle of that open field has been opened.
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: That's why these teams have been able to move the ball.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: So it's there are things where I can get where
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: It's like, I'm not just blindly betting the Chiefs here.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: There is logic and reasoning behind it. And the biggest
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: one is that and just all the love we're gonna
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: I mean we haven't even talked much about it, but
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: Spags like everything he's done for that defense of the Chiefs,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: it's like that's the game changer, isn't it, Like isn't
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: that the difference in this matchup where it's like we're
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: giving this guy two weeks now to prepare for party.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: In this offense, I think they're gonna be able to
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: get stopped. Like when I think of this Chiefs defense
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: and getting stops, I like that advantage really really do
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: for them. And offensively, we talked about it, it's my
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: homes like he's gotten more comfortable with their offensive weapons
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: and whenever he needs a play, Andy has in his
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: back pocket, Like it feels like on third down plays,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: they're just saving different plays and different looks for Kelsey
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: that just get him open. And he's obviously been a
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: totally different player of this playoffs. And I just don't know,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: if you know, we saw Colle Hamilton, the best cover
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: safety in football that touchdown to Kelsey. Everyone that saw
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: that touchdown said, that's Hall of Fame players right there.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: It was a perfect ball in the perfect spot against
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: perfect coverage against Colle Hamilton.
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: No one.
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: There is not a single player on that forty nine
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: Ers defense again cover like Kyla Hamilton against Kelsey. So
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: there's just so many different little advantages towards this Chiefs
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: team that it makes you feel comfortable taking them despite
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers having the overwhelmingly better roster.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: All Right, he said something really interesting, and we're gonna
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: we're gonna go so deep into this game. But the
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: idea that this was not a fun season, I don't
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: disagree with. It was actually a pretty agonizing season. There
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: was there was so much bad football. There were so
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: many teams that couldn't execute. There were so many bad
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: calls by the refs on procedural plays right, so many
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: linemen down field, so much illegal like shifts, so many
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: things that they decided to focus on this year that
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: just slowed the play down, made people lose momentum. It's
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: like it was honestly at times excruciating to watch these
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: games this year. Like a, I know that the ratings
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: are through the fucking roof right now, but this was
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: not as good a product as it has been in
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: the past to me, Like it was at times unwatchable.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: So I understand what people are saying, and look, if
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: you're a better as we are, and a lot of
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: betters who have experience are used to playing where are
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: used to betting on the underdogs, those are a shitty
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: year for bettan underdogs right Like it was a huge
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: year for betting favorites. Favorites continued to cash this year.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Favorites were covering in an epic rape. Just not a
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: great year for doing that for our side of the ball,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: so to speak. Can't argue with anything you're saying about
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: the Niners will go much much deeper into this, but
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: you know, like I think the key thing here is
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: we were all over the Ravens against the Chiefs because
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: we felt like it was a better team in the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: right situation to finally get over the hump. And that
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: is a lot of the logic on this Niners team
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: as well. And You've said it, I've said it, everyone
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: is saying it. I think it's more true now than ever.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is a cheat code. He is in pervious
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: to pressure. He steps up in the pocket to find
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: a guy and get the ball exactly where it needs
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: to go. He steps up in the pocket to gain
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: the fifteen yards he needs to get the first down
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: on third and long. Those are backbreaking, emotionally draining plays.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: And you can look at every part of this game
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: which we're all going to and that is worth so
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: much more. Like if you think about Patrick Mahomes, he's
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: far and away. We're at the most point to get
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: the point spread than any other quarterback in the NFL.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Like I would think there is a ten to twelve
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: point difference between Patrick Mahomes and the backup for the
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. That's how important this guy is when
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: it comes to the points spread.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I don't know if it's that extreme, but
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: I mean it's close. Just again because Spags and that defense,
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: it's like that has quietly been their identity all season. Right,
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: the fact that we knew go into that game. I
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: think what was that stat It was like they're geting
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: up seventeen points per game. Yeah, obviously that Chiefs defense,
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: like Mahomes has never had this, He's never had this
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: type of defense. And you know, obviously a major blow
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: to them. I believe one of their best pass rushers
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: towards acl Yeah, they guy which trip sacked Lamar. Big
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: deal to that team, of course. But they're also a
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: team of like next man up, right, that's what they
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: feel like, the kind of team of like you know,
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: they're a bunch of faceless guys. Right, it's really Chris
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: Jones in the middle and then a bunch of guys
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: around them, and they've really made it work. We talked
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: their secondary one of the best in the league all season.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Their biggest weakness is the run. And that's what again
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: me and you bet what we bet was true. Right,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: The Ravens could run the ball against them, they chose
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: not to. Ravens could defend them for the most part,
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: like they were matchups that did favor the Ravens. It
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: was just all scheme in Mahomes that just dominate that
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: like we talked about it on Sunday, It's like the
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: Ravens for some reason, whatever that Mahomes effect is, it
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: affected them so much they completely abandon who they were,
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: their total identity in the entire season, and just put
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: the ball totally Lamar's hands and just had throw at
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: thirty forty times and let's see if we can win this,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: which on his best day would have been in a
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: crazy idea, but it wasn't. It was like one of
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: his worst games he's ever played, and they were trying
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: to make him force throw. So the blueprint is there
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: for this forty NURS team like run the ball and
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: McCaffrey ball control. It's over. But what have we seen
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: these last couple of weeks. They've come out slow, Chat,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: They've come out slow, They've gone behind, and they had
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: a miracle comeback against the really young team in Green Bay,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: and they had an incredible comeback against a bad secondary
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: in the Lions. They're not going to have that here.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just it's a totally different situation of
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: party can be young and growing and becoming a better
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: player every week in this game with all this pressure,
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: how is Purtty going to handle this mentally because these
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: last two weeks he has been an incredible season VET
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: where it's like he the moment's not been too big
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: for Purdy. He's come back in two back to back
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: games and one you know, not all on him, right,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: Like a lot of that stuff was McCaffrey making big
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: runs and guys getting wide open, But like I talked
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: about last week, he was desperate in that game, and
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: he played desperate and it really worked for him where
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: it's like he was pulling it down and running something
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: we hadn't seen all season. And it wasn't just like,
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: oh he was getting luck in these runs. If you
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: watch it, he had an incredible vision on those plays.
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: He was making the right reads, setting guys up downfield
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: to make a cut on them. It was like, who
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: is this guy? We have not seen that from Party
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: in his career. So if he plays that way, I mean,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: the foy nin Ers definitely have a chance.
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: If he's playing that style, I just how can I
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: cap that? It's it's really flaky. We've never seen pretty
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: play that way before, so it's it's hard for me
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: to really bank on that. Where me and you, like
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: back in my homescrewers, I feel like we know exactly
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: what we're getting. Even at one and a half, I'm
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: still comfortable taking that number ism a dog. But I
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: think you just said it where it's like, shouldn't we
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: just take the money line at this point if it
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: gets up to plus one twenty plus one, ten, and
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: that you want to take the two, which we talk
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: all the time. Two is such a key number, you
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: might as well take the money line. But it's just
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: I feel comfortable with Mahomes knowing that if this game
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: is close and it's in the fourth quarter and we
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: have Mahomes a dog and he is the ball, don't
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: you mean don't we feel like we're going to cover
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: this number? Chats where I can't say the same. I
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: don't have that confidence. You know, Party's played great these
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: last two weeks. I think it says more about those
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: defense he's played where this Chiefs defense and Spags all
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: the different looks are going to give him. I just
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: don't have the faith in it where I just don't
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: think we'll be able to do what he did the
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: last couple of weeks against the defense. So it's it's
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: hard to go against Party because this is one of
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: my favorite stories ever. Right, a seventh round, last pick
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: in the draft making it to a super Bowl in
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: his first year. I mean, it is a story like
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: it really is inspirational. But we gotta I gotta play
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: Myhomes here. I gotta play Mahomes as a dog.
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: So listen, you mentioned the Chiefs defense a couple of times,
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: and I do want to talk about the under in
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: this game, because that was a bet that we talked
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit about on Sunday night.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: I can't believe that in a move though that we
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: that we might like even more than the side. The
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: last thing I'll say about Mahomes and again we will
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: we will dig much deeper into this game. Uh as
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: the weeks go on. Not only is he impervious to pressure,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: but he puts so much pressure on the opposing team.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: We have just seen for three straight weeks the three
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: best offenses in the NFL crack and completely change their
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: game plans because of what Patrick Mahomes was doing or
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: what they believed he could do. On the other side.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: That is an advantage that Andy Reid knows he has,
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: and I think it also plays into why the totals
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: have been so low have the scoring has been so
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: low for the Chiefs. But first, Simon, can you name
• 20:07
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• 20:11
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 20:12
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• 20:15
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• 20:18
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• 20:26
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• 21:02
  Speaker 3: That's summer all here with John Matten and all that
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: build up and all of this soup law John, is
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: it as big as it seems? I think it's bigger
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: than it seems. It's not just getting here today, but
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: it's winning today. And I think that the biggest gap
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: in sports is a difference between the winner and the
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: loser of the super Bowl. The winner your world champion.
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: They can never take it away from you, You'll never
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: forget it. The loser, they just get thrown back in
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: the pile.
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: All right, Forty seven and a half is the total.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night, you mentioned you liked the under. I like
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: the under as well. I played the under. I've got
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: a lot of stats and details, but before I dig
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: into those, give me some of your logic.
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's same as last year fan the show. Last year,
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: it's if I take a position on a total, I
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: go all in, so first quarter last year over first half,
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: over third quarter, over fourth quarter over game over, like,
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: I go all in on those kind of bets. I'll
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: be doing the same year with the under. I just
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: love the under. And there's a bunch of different reasons,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: but the biggest one will just be what Chad talked about,
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: where I believe not only will the Chiefs defense get stops.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: I'm still not fully convinced. I know it's crazy on
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: Mahomes getting touchdowns in the red zone. But it's like
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: I could still see them getting threes. So if I
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: feel like the safest side will be rock pretty playing tight,
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: settling for field goals, the Chiefs offense could get a
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: little you know. I don't want to say, I don't
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: want to say they'll struggle, but I could see this
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: forty on our team being finally giving up tons of
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: yards in the middle of the field, but then really
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: counting on it's getting stops in the red zone. That
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: will be the key to them to this game. So
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: not shocked that the number has come down. I believe
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: a couple of books opened at forty nine forty eight
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: and a half. It went right down. I think by
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: the time we even did our show Sunday it was
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: down to forty seven and a half.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah it was. If it was at forty nine and
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: forty eight, it was there for milliseconds.
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: Never saw it, so we only saw the forty seven
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: and a half. It's been holding there a week now
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: despite all the pros just hitting the under again. Public
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: money mean chat talk all the time, all the money,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: all the public bets will come in from Saturday morning
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: till midday Sunday, that's when the then again that's Chad
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: just said it. That's eleven days, ten days from now.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: So if you're looking the app yes, the early money,
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: it tends to be professional money. You don't mind locking
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: their money up for the next couple of weeks. They're
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: just trying to get the best of the number. That's
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: what it is right now. So the early money, obviously
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: Chiefs early money on the under you're gonna hit us
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: all the trends in the stats. My basic thinking for
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: it is just I have faith in this Chiefs defense,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: and I think the forty aers could get tight, and
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: Sam goes with the Chiefs offense where it's like I'm
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: a buyer. I'm a buyer in mahomes and if he
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: needs to get seven, he can get it. I'm just
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: not a buyer, and then be consistent. I still think
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: they will set out for three. That's just who they've
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: been this season. So the fact that it is at
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: a key number though, forty seven and a half, that's
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: why I wanted people to grab it now, just because
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: if it does go down, you're gonna miss out again.
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: Forty seven a half. It's shocking, but it's a key number.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: It lands there more than you would believe. So just
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: in case it does drop down to forty six, which
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: I don't think I will. I do think a public
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: will coming on the over and I'll go back up.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: We'll be'll get better value just grabbing the forty seven
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: and a half now. I'll make a bigger bet later
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: in the week if it does go up.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: Obviously, these are the number two and number three scoring
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: defenses in the league, just after the Ravens the Chiefs
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: this season, and this is really you know, it's been
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: so long since Patrick Mahomes had a defense that could
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: play to his caliber, and we've seen this season what
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: an impact that has had. And they're just not getting
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: credit for it in the marketplace because people still think
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: of it as Patrick Mahomes and a high scoring offense.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: But the truth is they're not that high scoring of
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: an offense. And they gave up, forget about offense for
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: a second, more than twenty one points just three times
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: all year. The most they gave up was twenty seven
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: against the Packers. One of those times was in the playoffs,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: they gave up twenty four to the Bills. They had
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: four games in which they didn't give up double digits,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: So they had more games in which they didn't give
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: up double digits than they did in which they gave
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: up more than three touchdowns. Like that's insane. And then
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: look at the playoffs. They just dominated three of the
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: best offenses in the league during the playoffs, the Ravens
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: number one rush offense in the league, the Bills, one
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: of the highest scoring quarterbacks in the league. Fifty freaking
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: touchdowns for Josh Allen Miami Dolphins, no matter the circumstances,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: no matter how bad it was in Kansas City, this
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: was a record setting offense on par with what the
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Greatest Show on Turf was doing for the Rams in
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the late nineties early two thousands. The second half adjustments
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: on offense and defense have been masterful. They've given up
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: ten second half points in those three playoff games. That's it,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: three and a third points a game in the second
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: half in the playoffs. And Andy Reid they just play
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: a different game in the second half. And he's always
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: done this, which is why the under is a good
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: play for the Chiefs. Now, of course, the more we
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: talk about how convinced we are, it's Mahomes in the under.
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be like seventy five seventy with Brock Purty
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: throwing for one thousand yards.
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: No, don't let them scourge you. That's just how super
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: Bowl Week is, where it's like you're literally beating yourself
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: up for two weeks about making these plays, where it's like, yeah,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: the doubt eventual will creep in, where it's like, am
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: I disconvinced on this side again? Last year, I was
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: an idiot that took the egos against my homes and
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: it was like, they're the better team on paper, they're
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: the best team and end up coming down to a
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: coin flip Chiefs one by three. But I mean, that's
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: that's kind of how it goes. Just the season before,
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: we talked about usually teams that win and win cover.
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: We did have a team cover and not win. Obviously
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: in the Bengals a couple of years was it two,
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: three years ago, they had the four and a half.
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: I believe that what they missed an extra point something
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: weird were landed on three with the Ravens. So just
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: a brutal beat, especially then where people had the three
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: and a half. Rams. Yeah, Rams, yes, you're right, your Rams.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: It's it is a thing. Where we talk all the
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: time about like you know, you're gonna hear a lot
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: of noise this week. That's why I try to make
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: take my position early on where even again we'll do
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: sharp calls next week. The amount of calls I got
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: after our show being like, you know, the forty nine
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: ers are the better team, and I just have to
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: smack them back and be like, you know, Mahomes is
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: the cheat code. And that's that's really the big thing
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: here where it's like we all know the Fighters are
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: the better team. We all can do simple math, and
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: we've all seen the product they put on the field,
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Like they got the big dogs, They got everything they
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: need on that team. It's just the most important position,
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: right the quarterback position. And we've seen time and time again,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: unless you have an incredible dominant thing, right say, the
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: Foynaire has had this incredible dominant front line, that would
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: change my opinion on this. If they had our front
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: four that was incredible against the run and really good
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: at getting pressure, this wild change my opinion. They're not.
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: The forty nine ers are just not that dominant of
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: our front line as we expect them to be this season.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: So you know, if you want to look back on
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: the type of defenses that give Mahomes trouble. This really
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: isn't the defense this time with defense is not that
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: style for the forty nine ers. So again, Chad, I
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: get where you're coming from, like the doubt will creep in,
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: but I'm locked in right now. And this Chiefs and
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: the under.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Well, look, that was something You're right. There's too much
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: time to talk about these games, just way too much time.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: I thought it was really interesting. Both games. They talked
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: about how the Ravens and the Niners like to play
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of zone and they those are not the
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: kind of matchups the well against those two teams, you're
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: gonna play zone. Against the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes is just
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: gonna pick you apart all day and if someone's not open,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: he's just gonna run. That's it. And so that is fascinating.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: But here is the thing you really got to think about.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: When you have someone as special as Mahomes, when what
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: you are witnessing is breaking the bounds of convention, does
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: that have more influence in how you account for the
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: circumstances and outcome of anything. Right, we're watching the equival
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: of Picasso of Shakespeare of the people who did this
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: in ways that set entirely new dynamics for everything. Right,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: So he's the freaking Beatles rolled into one. Like he's
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: setting the standard that is different, and so you have
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: to account for that. It can't be Well, the Niners
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: got a better team. So we think that the model
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: says this. Mahomes is a model breaker. He just is.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, you keep getting back to the human element
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: of it. Of if the fid and are down by
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: seven and they're looking across the field of the Mahomes
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: and they know even if they drive their field and
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: tie it up, they still have left too much time
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: for Mahomes get down the field and kick a three.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: Like that's just pure mental warfare, and that's what they're
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: so good at. I mean, even though I know it's
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: the corniest thing ever, them screwing with a kicker and
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: Tucker on the Ravens. It's like, guys need that kind
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: of stuff right in their own head, Like Mahomes. I
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: know it sounds stupid, but he took it as disrespect.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: How did you start that Ravens game? Chat? What was
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: that eleven for eleven against the yeah defense? So that's
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: what I mean, it's like the littlest light. These kind
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: of guys, like the Michael Jordan type, just take it
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: to a whole other level. And that's what makes these
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: guys so great. So, yeah, the books making Mahomes a
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: dog again, Chad, we don't even need we don't even
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: need anyone say anything. Mahomes already knows that people doubt
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: them again. So I think Evan had an amazing stat
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: first time. This would be the first time in his career.
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: He's been a dog three straight weeks. So the way
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: the numbers trending, it's going up, it looks like Mahomes
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: is going to close the dog. So it's it's historical
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: and I feel like a fool for not taking advantage
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: of it. So I'm not gonna miss out on this one.
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna take him in the super Bowl. Especially now
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: you can get the two Why would you not go
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: grab that or grab the money line.
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: You can catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: For those enjoying that on YouTube, don't forget to give
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: All right, reminder, we've got the bet three sixty five.
• 32:03
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• 32:09
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• 32:13
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• 32:17
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• 32:21
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  Speaker 1: will get there bet posted by Bet three sixty five
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  Speaker 1: plus some Action Network prizes and a chance, not a guarantee,
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  Speaker 1: a chance to join us on the podcast. First, you'll
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: have to be vetted by Matt Mitchell. So here's an
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: example of a couple of a couple that have come
• 32:49
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• 32:52
  Speaker 1: the other day, it has to be quantifiable, it has
• 32:57
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• 33:00
  Speaker 1: be graded by bookmakers off of the information and data
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: that is available and calculated in the game. So here's
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: an example minute Rice over under sixty and a half
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  Speaker 1: receiving yards for she Rice cute title. I like that.
• 33:17
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• 33:19
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• 33:23
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• 33:34
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• 33:41
  Speaker 1: or Taylor Swift Swift Album of the Year Grammys Interesting.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: I like it. I don't like that. I can't settle
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: it all at the same time, shake it off. Travis
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Kelsey to lose a fumble and anytime touchdown. See now
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: we're getting somewhere irrelevant. Yard Brock Party passyards versus Draft
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: persist position two hundred and sixty two. So okay, gold
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Rush Brock Party and Mahomes forty nine plus rushing yards. Look, guys,
• 34:15
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• 34:20
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• 34:32
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• 34:35
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