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Quick Take: Sweet 16 Breakdown + Predictions · Height Differential

0:00
Before we get into the matchups, we did this little draft what, 2
0:04
weeks before the tournament? Yep, the draft went you Duke, me
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Michigan, me Florida, you UConn, you Arizona, me Houston, me
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Illinois, You Sparty use Gonzaga, me Iowa State who is in
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better position. You've lost one team with
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Gonzaga. I've lost one team with Florida.
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We're both guaranteed to lose one team in the next round
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because we play each other. I've got.
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And. I've got Michigan State playing
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UConn and you've got Houston and Illinois, so we're definitely
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going guaranteed to lose 1 in the next round.
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I'll be honest, I I don't know if Illinois defends enough.
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I think 4 of my five teams that are alive can win it all.
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I look at yours, I think 2 can win it all.
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I think Duke and Zone I, I don't think Yukon can win it all right
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now. I'm I don't think Sparty can win
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it all. Well, the Duke and Yukon are
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also in the same region, so one of them can't win it.
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Well, I mean. I hear.
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I see your point, yes. Do you agree?
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Based on the remaining team, based on the remaining teams, we
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both lost one. We're both going to lose another
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1, I think, I don't want to admit it, but your your
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remaining teams I think are a little bit better than mine.
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I do have Michigan winning the title over Houston in the
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championship game. So both of those are on your
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roster well. And here's the funny.
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Thing, I mean, last last we got, I had what, Michigan over Duke
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in the rematch? You'll change your mind in two
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days anyway, so it doesn't matter.
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Like all this, all this is irrelevant.
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You got to go to the paper to figure out what his real picks
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are, people. I mean you, you, you dive in a
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little more on the matchups and then, you know, after thinking
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about it. What you do is you prepare.
2:01
For the show Wednesday. You prepare for the show and be
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prepared when you go on air. I didn't have ready to go.
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You pick the. The pairings were announced on
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Sunday night and we went right into the thing on Monday.
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I finally. That's all day.
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It's one whole day. I had to work.
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We had to. Get.
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But here, Here is The funny thing.
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You picked Michigan to win it all, which is on my team.
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I picked Arizona to win it all, which is on your team.
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The crazy thing is that Arizona was the 5th selection in our
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draft just two weeks before the tournament.
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That is crazy. And I would have picked them at
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3, but I decided to go Florida just because they were playing
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so well. That was a tough decision for
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me. And then you went UConn over
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Arizona at 4:00, but you ended up getting them at 5:00.
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Well, I had back-to-back picks and yeah, I could have taken
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Arizona. I don't know.
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I I like your team currently a little bit more than mine, but
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it's not over, not over yet. All right, getting into this
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week, Duke, St. Johns, MI State, UConn.
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What you got? Well, after the Sienna game I
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was a little bit down. Make sure you do a disclaimer
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that you didn't know we were going to have to pick these
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games and that you'll change your mind in 2 days.
3:19
No, I'm not changing my mind yet.
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I'm not changing my mind on this.
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I mean, I was a little bit down on Duke after the performance
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against Sienna, but they bounced back.
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It took him a while to pull away from TCU, but they did, and they
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absolutely hammered him in the last 10 minutes so they look
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like Duke again. Finally, I'm picking Duke.
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Give me the Duke Blue Devils over St.
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John's. And this stays consistent with
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your bracket. It does.
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And then I picked St. John's in my bracket and, and
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I'm sticking with that. Pitino's going to make them play
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the game his way. And I think Zubi can match with
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with Cameron Boozer down low. I think they that's.
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Going to be a match up. That's going to be a match up
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right there. I think they are going to
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absolutely just try to pressure Kaden Boozer all game and, and
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to see if he can handle that pressure.
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I think Saint John's is just the way they're playing right now.
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They've got confidence after hitting that game winner.
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They're they're, they're going to try to dominate the paint.
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They're going to try to create turnovers.
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Duke turned it over a lot against TCUI know it didn't
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matter because they they, they really, that game wasn't close,
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but they had 17 giveaways in that game.
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And something like that is going to make Rick Pitino's eyes kind
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of light up and look, like I said last week, you got to take
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chances in your bracket. You got to pick some upsets.
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I think this is an opportunity for one and and I'm rolling.
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It's it's an opportunity for one, yeah.
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I mean, this, this would would get you a huge boost if you can,
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if you pull this one off. I don't know if edge 4 can set a
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foul trouble. I mean, it could be a game of
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who who's in foul trouble, really.
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Edge 4 gets Boozer in foul trouble, Advantage of Saint
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John's if it goes the other way and As for us to sit on the
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bench for most of the first half, advantage Duke.
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Well, and dude, it's and it's Saint John shoots the three
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ball, but Bryce Hopkins said six threes like you did last week
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against Kansas. They don't, they normally don't
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shoot it very well. They're not a very good shooting
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team, are they? Shot 30 threes against Kansas.
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I think there was. If their season high was as
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close to it, I wouldn't expect them to shoot that many on.
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And Duke can defend each one of the better defensive teams in
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the contract. Duke can get after it on the
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defensive end. Yeah, and they want to slow.
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They want to slow it down, limit your possessions.
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That was a big reason why they beat Michigan.
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They held Michigan to like 6062 possessions, which is one of the
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lowest amount of possessions that Michigan's had this year.
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They're going to try to do the same game thing against Saint
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John. St.
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John's doesn't normally get limited in possessions like
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that. I this is one of the obvious.
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There are all these games are going to be great, but I'm
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really looking forward to that game on Friday night.
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Michigan State, UConn. I believe you were rolling UConn
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originally. You were rolling Michigan State,
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OK. Yeah, might have been rolling
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UConn originally, but in in the official bracket I.
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Can't keep up? I've got Michigan State and I'm
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going to keep. So I'm going to stay with that
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pick in Michigan State with Fears and Carr.
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Carr can play like he did against Louisville then.
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I mean, he was just a man amongst boys.
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I mean, he was unbelievable on Saturday.
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But we'll we'll go Michigan State.
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We'll keep it consistent. Yeah, I, I went UConn.
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I'm I'm still going to go UConn. It was good to see Silas Demery
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back in the lineup after sitting out there first round matchup.
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UConn has not been shooting the ball well from deep.
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I think they're going to have to do that to, to beat Michigan
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State. It's going to be the, the Cooper
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territory match up down low, I think is going to be really
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important. I mean, Michigan State just
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wants to make this game ugly, right?
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And turn it into a slugfest. And, and that's what Tom is
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those teams always try to do. But I, I think it'll all come
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down to can you limit fears? Can you keep him getting in the
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paint to create opportunities for others?
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And Michigan State's going to just pack that pack that defense
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and make your shit over top of it.
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And UConn has not been doing a great job of shooting threes,
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but I think maybe they'll get that done on on Friday and and
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get get the win over over Sparty.
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But God, like the fight, like I know we already mentioned, but
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just those four coaches and we've been talking about it
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forever, but this, this looks like it could be a Final Four.
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Oh yeah, those four teams right there.
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Absolutely. Then in in the South, you've got
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Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, Houston, 3 Big 10 teams, Iowa,
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Nebraska have already played twice this year.
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They split Iowa won at home 57 to 52.
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And just what? That's a absolute rock fight.
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And then Nebraska. That's why the Holyburg slapped
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the the kids phone when that was a lot.
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Yeah, phone slapping incident. And then Nebraska returned the
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favor of winning at home, 84 to 75.
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And overtime, who you got in game #3.
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Going with the let's go with the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
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Keep riding, keep riding that that train, that momentum, big
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win over there. They look actually, they look
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really good against Vanderbilt. I mean, I know Iowa look good
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against Florida and the way Florida was playing too.
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But give me, give me the Nebraska Cornhuskers to pull
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that one out. I'm going Nebraska too.
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They were one of the hottest teams in the country.
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You starting off 20 and O and I think they're kind of getting in
9:05
that groove again. Bennett starts will be the best
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player in the court, but I just think overall Nebraska has a
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better team. But like we still have to
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remember that Iowa was 10 and 10 in Big 10 play and to me that
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matters. They turn it over a lot.
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But you look at how good the Big 10 is with the amount of teams
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they've got still alive, I mean, 10 and 10, the Big 10 isn't as
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bad as it sounds. No, you're right.
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And I think that's a fairpoint. In both of the matchups, Iowa
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has really struggled turning the ball over against Nebraska's
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defense. They turn it over 20% of the
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time in game, 126% of the time in Game 2.
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I think they'll do that again and and that's why I give the
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nod to Nebraska this next game. Houston, IL, like everybody
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talks about, thinks about Houston is just such a good
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defensive team. Illinois, a lot of their metrics
10:01
say they are the best offensive team in the country.
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When you're got a team that's of the caliber defense like Houston
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and the offense like Illinois, who do you take in that one?
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Tough one. I'm going with the offense of
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Houston in this one. They just seem like they're
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playing some one of some of their best basketball of the
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year. Like they like that game against
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Arizona in the conference in the conference tournament was it was
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a great one. I think they're they're they're
10:33
playing probably they're one of the best 3 four teams left in
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the tournament. And I don't think Illinois is
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that Illinois good. I just don't think that they're
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great on the level that Houston is right now.
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Jimmy Houston where, you know, I mean, they're favored by 3 1/2.
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So it's going to be a close game, but I'm going to Houston.
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I'm going to Houston too and like both these teams are great
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rebounding teams as well. I just think that Houston's got
11:00
a chip on their shoulder get as close as they did last year.
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I I think their defense is going to keep them in the game.
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Illinois is going to have to shoot it well.
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Keaton Waggler is going to have to get he's going to have to
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find ways to get in, get into the lane and create for Jake
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Davis and those other guys to to make some threes.
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But I Kingston Fleming's dude and Emmanuel starp and use on
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like I I'm leaning that way. I, I, I can't go against Calvin
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Sampson here. I do think Illinois is really,
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really good, but I I got to lead Houston.
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Yeah, and Houston's coming off. I mean, they've got the
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experience of, of making it all the way to the to the to the end
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last year. They're also playing at home.
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And they are playing at home that I think that's also a huge
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factor that they can't be overlooked, yes.
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Moving to the other side, you've got Arizona, Arkansas, Texas,
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Purdue, Arizona, Arkansas. There's a lot of pros.
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There's a lot of pros in this game.
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A lot of pros on that one. I'm going Arizona, even though I
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really do like Arkansas. Arkansas's playing their best
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basketball this season. I mean, a Cuff is just a star,
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absolute star. And if Brazil's knocking down
12:14
the threes and, and he's playing the way he's been playing, this
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could be right for the upset. But Arizona's been just
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consistently good all season. They've beaten tremendous teams
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along the way. What they've lost what, twice?
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Give me. Give me the Wildcats.
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I think if you match these teams talent for talent, it's very
12:32
close. But I think at some point,
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Arkansas, who really is only going 60, I think it has to
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catch up with them. And I think when you're playing
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a team who right now I think is playing better than anybody else
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in the country, I think this is the game where it catches up
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with you. Arkansas struggles tremendously
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in in transition defense. And that's something that
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Arizona I think is going to take advantage of.
13:02
Now, if a cuff goes up and has 3540, could Arkansas pull this
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game out? Absolutely, 100% and he's going
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to get help like you talked about it.
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Brazil's been good. I think Ewan is is AX factor in
13:16
in this game. Billy Richmond is the all SEC
13:18
defender. But I mean, then on the other
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side you've got you've got Jayden Bradley and Bradenbury's
13:26
and Co Pete like it's there's a reason why I picked Arizona to
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win at all. And there's a lot of teams that
13:34
are left in the Sweet 16 that I would pick Arkansas to beat, and
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they're just matched up against one that I don't think they're
13:40
going to be. Now.
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Like I said, Acuff could go off for 45 and figure out a way to
13:44
win it by himself. It's it's possible?
13:48
I, I look at the Purdue Texas match up, I think it's a bad
13:50
match up for Texas and I think I don't.
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Think it's going to be close either.
13:55
I mean, especially the way that Purdue's playing, if Kaufman ran
13:57
and Rayden Smith and Fletcher lawyer and they're if they're
14:01
going to keep playing the way that they've been playing, this
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isn't going to be a close game. I think Texas, they, they barely
14:07
escaped in that playing game. They played a bad BYU team in my
14:11
opinion, and then a Gonzaga team that I thought was underrated
14:15
and they turned out to be overrated.
14:17
I know they were banged. Up.
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They're missing their best. Player like the best player I
14:20
understand, but I think it comes to an end for Texas and I think
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it comes to an end double digits.
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Here, here's what here's all I'm going to say about this game.
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And This is why Texas barely got in the tournament.
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Texas ranks 334 nationally against top five competition
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defensively so. Yeah, that's going.
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To come back that good and the way that Purdue is just playing
14:45
offensively and dude, Braden Smith has not shot the ball well
14:48
in the first two rounds, I think he's going to shoot a lot better
14:51
moving forward. Yeah, didn't even make a three
14:53
in his last game. Give me Purdue all day.
14:58
Going double digits, I think the 6 1/2 is what I see on here
15:01
right now. Yeah, I would take him to cover,
15:03
yeah. I think that that's probably
15:05
accurate. Then we get to the Midwest.
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Michigan, Alabama, Tennessee, Iowa State.
15:16
Who you got? I mean, if Alabama wants to play
15:20
that, shoot the ball and play the way that they did the other
15:22
day, then they're going to give Michigan a game.
15:24
But Yaxel Lindenburg is just a absolute monster.
15:30
Donald, he's the he's the, he's the best player to me in the
15:32
country, even better than Boozer.
15:35
So give me Michigan to win this game.
15:38
But I think this is going to be, it's a bit closer than I think
15:42
most people would expect, but give me Michigan.
15:45
I I don't know how Alabama guards Michigan and I don't know
15:48
how they rebound. But if they shoot it, they can
15:50
shoot it. They're going to try to
15:52
outscore. We just got to try to outscore.
15:55
That's the only thing that they can do.
15:57
They physicality wise they cannot stand toe for toe with
16:01
with Michigan and Alabama has struggled against teams that out
16:05
physical them like Arizona and Florida.
16:09
They get they they got out rebounded by what 11 Plus they
16:15
get out rebounded. Purdue out rebounded Alabama by
16:18
24. I think Michigan will try to do
16:21
the same. Now look, if Alabama goes off
16:23
and hits 19 threes like they get against Texas Tech, then yeah,
16:28
they've got a chance. But I don't see that happening
16:30
in in back-to-back games. I mean, that's how Wisconsin
16:32
beat Michigan early in the season was by just getting hot
16:35
from three in South score. You're going to have to outscore
16:38
him. Like, this game's going to have
16:39
to be in the 80s nineties for Alabama to have a chance.
16:44
Probably in the 90s. Yeah, first they they've got at
16:47
least at 15 threes, I think to even be in the game and they had
16:51
19 yesterday. So will they continue that?
16:55
I mean, Phylon's one of the best players in in this less than
16:58
this tournament. So not like you don't have
17:01
dudes. It's just Michigan has more
17:03
dudes and they're bigger and they're stronger and they'll
17:05
guard and they'll rebound and Alabama doesn't want to do any
17:08
of those things. And then the last one,
17:13
Tennessee, Iowa State, I this this is could be another tough
17:20
one. I'm lean in Iowa State because
17:23
that's who I have in my bracket. I'm sticking with my bracket.
17:25
Who you got? Yeah, I'm going to go Iowa State
17:28
as well. I was impressed with the way
17:31
that they defended against Kentucky.
17:32
And we all know that they can they can shoot the ball.
17:37
I mean, yeah, I mean, their their best player went down
17:40
against Tennessee State on Friday, but they can bounce back
17:46
and and didn't show, I mean, a lot of signs of that affecting
17:49
them against Kentucky. So I think they'll be fine.
17:52
Give me Iowa State. Dude, I just think this Iowa
17:55
State team is they've been ready for this.
17:58
They've got a lot of the guys that were there last year.
18:01
Tay Tayman, Lipsy's been there all four years.
18:03
He's from that area, He's motivated.
18:06
But that match up, Lipsy and Gillespie is going to be
18:08
awesome. And then the Nate Amen and Milan
18:12
Monsilovich. Milan Monsilovich Like if if
18:15
you're playing video games and just banging threes, dude, how
18:18
fun would that be just to constantly hit threes with him
18:20
and yell his name at your buddy when you're just shredding?
18:23
Him. We all know Carl would do that.
18:25
On March Madness would be awesome.
18:28
Here's the one thing that maybe could lean into Iowa State's
18:32
favor is the fact that Tennessee is the best offensive rebounding
18:37
team in the country. And in all of Ohio State's
18:41
losses, their their defense has given up a 31 percent or higher
18:46
offensive rebound rate which could keep Tennessee in the
18:49
game. I, I just think that this, this
18:52
Iowa State's prime for this moment and we'll, we'll get past
18:55
the Tennessee team that has the talent but has been up and down
18:59
all year and they had an up weekend last weekend.
19:03
I expect them to take a little downturn this week.
19:06
It's especially against an Iowa State team that I think is ready
19:08
for the moment. Has there been an update on the
19:10
Joshua Joshua Jefferson? Is he?
19:13
Out, out. He's not.
19:14
He's not going to play. I don't.
19:15
I think there's very small chance it didn't look good.
19:20
I mean, he wasn't even putting any weight on it.
19:23
He was in a boot and yeah, I mean, yeah, no, I still think
19:27
that they can win with it. I mean, he's our best player.
19:30
It's it does suck. But yeah, I think I think they
19:32
can still win this game. I don't know if they can get
19:34
past Michigan without him. I.
19:35
Mean they just beat a Kentucky team that beat Tennessee twice.
19:40
Well, what did I just say about Tennessee?
19:45
But they're up and down. Like you just don't know what
19:46
you're going to get and you're like, oh, they turn the corner
19:49
and then they blow a 10 point lead and lose late, late.
19:52
That's just what they do. And Rick Barnes has got these
19:57
four straight sweet sixteens, but they've never been to the
19:59
Final Four and they ain't getting past Iowa State and and
20:03
Michigan to get there. This is this ain't the year for
20:06
their first. Final four, not the year.
20:10
What What game are you looking forward to the most this week?
20:15
This week I, it's got to be the Duke St.
20:17
John's game, I think with Pitino and and Shire.
20:23
I we talked about it. We, we've already gone over.
20:27
I still have Duke, but don't doubt Rick Pitino in March, man.
20:31
He's he's, he's done it before and he's on his way to doing it
20:35
again. And you know, you weren't you
20:38
went Rick. I'll go Cal.
20:40
And I'm really looking forward to the Arizona, Arkansas game.
20:44
This this game has more pros than than any other game that's
20:47
left in this tournament. And I don't think Arkansas is
20:51
going to win, but just watching that many pros go at it, it is
20:57
it. It should be fun, but Kentucky
21:00
and Louisville not in it, but Rick, Rick and Cal are.
21:03
So it's just. I'm putting Illinois, Houston is
21:06
my honorable mention. Yeah, well, in a lot like
21:10
Michigan State, U Conn like. That one's all right.
21:14
It's. Going to be fun this weekend.