Latest / The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson / Iran Revolution-Why this is Different...Trump is not Obama

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Iran Revolution-Why this is Different...Trump is not Obama · The 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson

0:01
Speaker 1: Welcome. It is Verdict with Center Ted Cruz. It is
0:03
Speaker 1: so nice to have you with us and Centaer. We've
0:05
Speaker 1: got a big show today. First off, Iran and President
0:09
Speaker 1: Trump's speaking out in a very bold way.
0:11
Speaker 2: Well, this week is momentous and that millions of Iranians
0:14
Speaker 2: continue to stand up and fight to overthrow the Ayahtola,
0:18
Speaker 2: to overthrow the Mullahs, the radical Islamist who have dominated
0:21
Speaker 2: that country for five decades. And President Trump has come
0:25
Speaker 2: out unequivocally in support of the protesters. And just this
0:28
Speaker 2: week he came out and said it is time for
0:31
Speaker 2: a new government in Iran. The Ayahtola needs to go.
0:34
Speaker 2: That is enormously consequential. We're going to break down why
0:38
Speaker 2: he said, what he did, what it means, and what's
0:40
Speaker 2: going to happen next.
0:41
Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is an important story. I want to
0:44
Speaker 1: also reminds you about an incredible organization, our friends at
0:47
Speaker 1: Compassion International. Right now, somewhere in the world, a kid
0:52
Speaker 1: you've never met is writing you a letter. They're telling
0:55
Speaker 1: you about their day, their dreams, the goal they scored,
0:59
Speaker 1: the tests they passed, the new friend they made at school.
1:03
Speaker 1: Maybe they're drawing you even a picture maybe they've asked
1:06
Speaker 1: you about your family, your favorite color, what makes you laugh.
1:10
Speaker 1: They're wondering who you are, this person who cares enough
1:13
Speaker 1: to be part of their story. And you you're not
1:17
Speaker 1: just sending money, You're writing back. You're showing up month
1:21
Speaker 1: after month, letter after letter. You're celebrating their victories, encouraging
1:26
Speaker 1: them through challenges, and reminding them that they truly matter. Now,
1:31
Speaker 1: this isn't a transaction, It's an incredible relationship that spans
1:35
Speaker 1: continence and changes everything for both of you. That is
1:39
Speaker 1: where Compassion International connects you directly with one child, real letters,
1:45
Speaker 1: real relationships, and real change. Because poverty isn't solved with
1:49
Speaker 1: donations alone. It's solved by showing up impact the world,
1:54
Speaker 1: one child at a time, and learn how at Compassion
1:58
Speaker 1: dot com. That's Compassion dot com. All right. So, Center
2:03
Speaker 1: Sunday Morning, I was watching CBS like Sunday Morning, their
2:07
Speaker 1: show it with Jane Pawley, and they were reminding people
2:10
Speaker 1: that Tuesday is one year since President Trump will be
2:14
Speaker 1: in office, and they were talking about this and they
2:17
Speaker 1: were also comparing it, saying that Donald Trump has gone
2:21
Speaker 1: so rogue on the world stage now, and they had
2:24
Speaker 1: a historian on to say, well, most countries don't make
2:28
Speaker 1: it to two hundred and fifty years with a democracy
2:31
Speaker 1: and freedom, and so they were clearly implying that this
2:35
Speaker 1: is that two hundred and fifty year anniversary. We probably
2:37
Speaker 1: won't make it there by July because Donald Trump's gone
2:40
Speaker 1: so rogue. And I laugh because I'm like, this guy
2:43
Speaker 1: is so clearly transparent and what he wants to do
2:47
Speaker 1: and what the voters told him to do. Iran as
2:49
Speaker 1: another example of that, you don't have to guess. He
2:51
Speaker 1: has said what our state admission is.
2:55
Speaker 2: Well, I got to say. Your first mistake is what
2:57
Speaker 2: on earth will you doing watching CBS this morning? I
3:01
Speaker 2: was on, I was on Maria Bartiromo, but apparently I'm
3:05
Speaker 2: Chop Liver and so you weren't interested in watching me.
3:09
Speaker 2: You instead wanted.
3:10
Speaker 1: To commies were peddling out there.
3:14
Speaker 2: Look, you wanted to listen to COMMI historians lie and
3:17
Speaker 2: say democracy died the day the American people elected Donald Trump.
3:21
Speaker 2: By the way, they think democracy died any time the
3:24
Speaker 2: voters don't elect left wing radical democrats. You know, it
3:29
Speaker 2: reminds me of a Nigo Montoya and the Princess Bride
3:31
Speaker 2: when it comes to democracy, you keep on using that word.
3:34
Speaker 2: I do not think it means what you think it means.
3:36
Speaker 2: Like their definition of democracy is not what you actually
3:42
Speaker 2: would get looking in the dictionary, which is the people voting.
3:45
Speaker 2: And actually pure democracy is the people voting and choosing
3:48
Speaker 2: the policies that will govern their country. We don't have
3:51
Speaker 2: a pure democracy. We have a republic. What is a republic.
3:54
Speaker 2: A republic is where the people vote to elect their representatives.
3:59
Speaker 2: So the people are not voting on should our top
4:01
Speaker 2: marginal tax rate be thirty six percent or fifty percent
4:06
Speaker 2: or ten percent. That would be direct democracy, but instead
4:11
Speaker 2: we have You could call it a democratic republic because
4:14
Speaker 2: it is a republic where democracy operates to elect our representatives.
4:18
Speaker 2: But when people use democracy capital d they usually mean
4:25
Speaker 2: that the voters get to decide. But that's not how
4:28
Speaker 2: democrats use it, that's not how the media use it. Instead,
4:32
Speaker 2: what they mean by democracy is socialists and Marxists are
4:37
Speaker 2: in power, and by the way, they're perfectly happy to
4:39
Speaker 2: ignore the voters if it keeps them in power. Let's
4:44
Speaker 2: focus on I ran for a moment because listen, and
4:48
Speaker 2: we've talked about this on the pod in the last
4:50
Speaker 2: couple of weeks. I really do think we're in a
4:53
Speaker 2: momentous moment like unlike anything we have seen since the
4:59
Speaker 2: late nineteen in the eighties, the early nineteen nineties. We're
5:02
Speaker 2: in a moment where three of the most viciously anti
5:07
Speaker 2: American regimes across the planet, Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba. In
5:13
Speaker 2: the next six months, we could see all three of
5:16
Speaker 2: those regimes fall, and we could also see free and
5:20
Speaker 2: fair elections and all three of them. And if that happens,
5:24
Speaker 2: I think there is a real possibility that they will
5:26
Speaker 2: elect democratically elect going back to big D democracy. The voters,
5:31
Speaker 2: I believe there's a real possibility will elect leaders who
5:35
Speaker 2: will defend free markets, defend freedom, and critically stop waging
5:40
Speaker 2: war on America and make the choice to be friends
5:43
Speaker 2: with America. If that happens, it will be the most
5:47
Speaker 2: consequential change on the global stage since the fall of
5:52
Speaker 2: the Berlin Wall, since Ronald Reagan and America won the
5:56
Speaker 2: Cold War. And we did that without firing a shot.
5:58
Speaker 2: That changed the entire globe, and we could see in
6:01
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six a change. Every bit is significant. Now,
6:05
Speaker 2: let me be clear, there are a thousand ways for
6:09
Speaker 2: things to go wrong in Iran, in Venezuela, in Cuba.
6:14
Speaker 2: So and what we do know for certainty is it
6:16
Speaker 2: will not be smooth and without challenges. We know that
6:19
Speaker 2: to an absolute certainty. Expect the unexpected. That being said,
6:25
Speaker 2: President Trump came out this week and he explicitly said
6:28
Speaker 2: it is time for a new government in Iran. He
6:32
Speaker 2: had never said that before, throughout the first term, throughout
6:35
Speaker 2: this term until right now, he had explicitly not gone
6:39
Speaker 2: so far as to embrace quote regime change. Now, Ben,
6:43
Speaker 2: you'll remember what was it six seven months ago when
6:46
Speaker 2: I did Tucker Carlson Show. He started by peripatetically freaking
6:51
Speaker 2: out and saying, my god, Cruz, you're for regime change
6:55
Speaker 2: in Iran. And he had a heart attack, and then
6:57
Speaker 2: he began laughing maniacally, which he does a lot. The
7:02
Speaker 2: odd thing is, I think any rational American should be
7:07
Speaker 2: wont to see regime change. If you ask yourself, is
7:11
Speaker 2: America better off if the leader of Iran is not
7:16
Speaker 2: a crazy religious nut, an Islamist radical who chance death
7:22
Speaker 2: to America, to kill, who chance death to America, who
7:27
Speaker 2: murders and tortures his own people. Who is the biggest
7:30
Speaker 2: funder of terrorism on planet Earth, who provides more than
7:33
Speaker 2: ninety percent of the funding to Hamas, who provides more
7:35
Speaker 2: than ninety percent of the funding to Hesbela, who is
7:38
Speaker 2: responsible for killing hundreds, if not thousands, of Americans. Like unequivocally,
7:45
Speaker 2: America would be better off if the Ayatola was no
7:49
Speaker 2: longer the leader of Iran. Now, part of the reason
7:53
Speaker 2: why the words regime change have a stigma connected to them,
7:57
Speaker 2: it is many remembered the Iraq War, Remember the George W.
8:01
Speaker 2: Bush administration, where regime change justified sending hundreds of thousands
8:06
Speaker 2: of American troops to spend years fighting in a distant war.
8:09
Speaker 2: And they don't want to see that. And by the way,
8:11
Speaker 2: I don't want to see that. I think the Iraq
8:13
Speaker 2: War was a mistake. I have said that for a
8:16
Speaker 2: long long time. So when I say I support regime change,
8:20
Speaker 2: it doesn't mean I want to send hundreds of thousands
8:21
Speaker 2: of American troops onto the ground in Iran. What it
8:25
Speaker 2: means is it is unequivocally in our interest to see
8:29
Speaker 2: the Iatola fall. I think the Iatola's fall ought to
8:33
Speaker 2: be driven primarily by the Iranian people, and it's why
8:36
Speaker 2: this uprising is so consequential because it is Iranians who
8:41
Speaker 2: are risking their lives to overturn this regime, this dictatorship.
8:47
Speaker 2: But President Trump, I think is doing a good job
8:50
Speaker 2: of number one, making clear that America stands with the people,
8:55
Speaker 2: stands with the protesters, and threatening accountability and what is
8:59
Speaker 2: accountability look like like. He has made clear to the
9:01
Speaker 2: government of Iran if you just sit there and begin
9:05
Speaker 2: massacring the protesters, there will be real consequences. He hasn't
9:09
Speaker 2: specified what they are, but the clear implication is the
9:12
Speaker 2: consequences will be military and nature. That deterrence, by the way,
9:17
Speaker 2: military and nature is not send hundreds of thousands of
9:21
Speaker 2: troops to the ground, but it may well be bombed
9:23
Speaker 2: the crap out of something like there is And hopefully
9:28
Speaker 2: that is a.
9:29
Speaker 1: They are remembering the ran nuclear sites that we just
9:32
Speaker 1: hit doing the impossible mission. Yep. And I do think
9:35
Speaker 1: that's part of terms calculus, Like if you don't believe me,
9:38
Speaker 1: just go look at your nuclear sites. Don't don't don't
9:40
Speaker 1: test me here. Don't think I won't do this right?
9:45
Speaker 2: And look, you combine President Trump taking out the Iranian
9:49
Speaker 2: nuclear facilities, and you combine it with the raid and
9:52
Speaker 2: arrest on Maduro, two incredibly audacious national security steps massively
9:58
Speaker 2: improve the national security of America. Both were incredible successes.
10:02
Speaker 2: And in Iran, Israel has already taken out their air defenses.
10:05
Speaker 2: Their air defenses are essentially non existence.
10:08
Speaker 1: Now.
10:09
Speaker 2: Any time you engage in military action there is a risk.
10:11
Speaker 2: I mean, we could have casualties, but Iran is in
10:16
Speaker 2: a markedly wicked, weakened position, and so that threat is consequential.
10:22
Speaker 2: I also hope and I believe, and I don't have
10:24
Speaker 2: any classified information on this, so I'm not revealing anything,
10:27
Speaker 2: but I hope and believe there's quite a bit that
10:30
Speaker 2: is happening under the surface that we're not seeing in
10:33
Speaker 2: terms of covert activities. I hope we're doing everything humanly
10:36
Speaker 2: possible to help and support the protesters so that they
10:40
Speaker 2: can overthrow the government, not us, but them. But we
10:43
Speaker 2: can be contrasted to what happened when Barack Obama was president,
10:52
Speaker 2: and I want to actually I want to compare the
10:54
Speaker 2: two and give you that contrast. So there was an
10:58
Speaker 2: article in Tablet magazine several days ago, and it's called
11:03
Speaker 2: is this Time Different? In Iran? By an author named
11:07
Speaker 2: Peter throw and here's what he said. I want to
11:10
Speaker 2: read this at some length because I think it's really
11:12
Speaker 2: quite interesting and profound. In two thousand and nine, what
11:16
Speaker 2: shocked me about President Barack Obama's lack of support for
11:19
Speaker 2: the Green Movement protesters in Iran was the failure to
11:22
Speaker 2: launch of the Commander in Chief's colossal ego. Here were
11:26
Speaker 2: thousands of young Iranians filling the streets of Tehran to
11:29
Speaker 2: appeal to him, even with a wistful pawn on his name. Obama,
11:35
Speaker 2: Bama Bashid Obama be with us. Anyone in government at
11:40
Speaker 2: the time knew that the Chicago un lacked nothing in
11:43
Speaker 2: the way of ruthlessness, though he tended to save it
11:45
Speaker 2: for republicans of the non Islamic variety. He applied the
11:50
Speaker 2: word enemy to the GOP, but never to the Mullahs.
11:55
Speaker 2: If righteous anger at the regime's murder of dissidence didn't
11:58
Speaker 2: meet the threshold for Chicago rules, I thought surely vanity
12:01
Speaker 2: might do the job. But opening to Iran had been
12:05
Speaker 2: an early theme of his presidency. That same year, with
12:08
Speaker 2: a mushy Persian New Year message and a secret letter
12:12
Speaker 2: to Supreme Leader Ali Kameni of whom he knew little. Quote.
12:17
Speaker 2: Despite his title of Supreme Leader, Kameni's authority wasn't absolute.
12:21
Speaker 2: Obama preposterously intoned in his memoir of Promised Land in
12:25
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, quote, he had to confer with a powerful
12:28
Speaker 2: council of clerics, the Guardian's council. Referring to the clerics,
12:33
Speaker 2: journalist Kareem Sajjapur observed that their average age is deceased.
12:40
Speaker 2: Obama continued, that's pretty funny. Obama continued, quote, my first
12:45
Speaker 2: impulse was to express strong support for the demonstrators, Obama
12:49
Speaker 2: records further in that memoir. But when I gathered my
12:52
Speaker 2: national security team, are Iran experts advised against such a move.
12:58
Speaker 2: According to them, any statement for me would likely backfire.
13:01
Speaker 2: Activists inside Iran fear that supportive statements from the US
13:05
Speaker 2: government would be seized upon to discredit their movement.
13:09
Speaker 1: That's amazing.
13:11
Speaker 2: The latter statement was ridiculous on its face, as the
13:13
Speaker 2: demonstrators were openly pleading for outside support and from him specifically.
13:19
Speaker 2: He may have been ignorant about how Ronald Reagan's harsh
13:22
Speaker 2: anti Moscow rhetoric boosted the morale of imprisoned dissidence like
13:26
Speaker 2: Datan Sharansky. But what of that national security team? Obama
13:32
Speaker 2: does not name them, but his administration would become known
13:35
Speaker 2: for high level sentimentalists towards Iran, Rob Malley, Samantha Power,
13:39
Speaker 2: Philip Gordon, sahir Naurazadree, and the diplomatic weaklings who would
13:45
Speaker 2: negotiate the nuclear deal. So Obama issued a series of
13:50
Speaker 2: statements that he himself would describe as quote bland, bureaucratic,
13:56
Speaker 2: and passive. Bitter that quote, I had to listen to
14:00
Speaker 2: Republicans how that I was coddling a murderous regime. Actually
14:05
Speaker 2: he was six years away from truly coddling it. Our
14:08
Speaker 2: cerebral leader lamented that as president, quote, my heart was
14:12
Speaker 2: now chained to strategic considerations and tactical analysis, my conviction
14:16
Speaker 2: subject to counterintuitive arguments that in the most powerful office
14:20
Speaker 2: on Earth, I had less freedom to say what I
14:23
Speaker 2: meant and act on what I felt than I had
14:26
Speaker 2: as a senator. In other words, what passed for his
14:29
Speaker 2: convictions were easily defeated by an America bad briefing from
14:35
Speaker 2: his subordinates. Now it goes on to say, numbers are
14:40
Speaker 2: still inexact, but Tehran's thugs made about four thousand arrests
14:44
Speaker 2: and killed hundreds to quell the two thousand and nine demonstration.
14:48
Speaker 2: The Green Movements leaders were jailed globally, dissidents of all stripes,
14:51
Speaker 2: and even Madonna and U two spoke out in favor
14:55
Speaker 2: of Iranian democracy. By the way, where are Madonna and
14:57
Speaker 2: you two right now? That's an interesting question. Was it
15:00
Speaker 2: a bitter pill for a cool cat like Obama not
15:04
Speaker 2: to be in that club? I suspect not, as he
15:07
Speaker 2: harbored some sentimentality towards the Islamic Republic, having stated in
15:12
Speaker 2: his first letter to its leader, as well as in
15:14
Speaker 2: his tape video message on the occasion of Norah's the
15:18
Speaker 2: Persian New Year, that he sought normalization with the state
15:22
Speaker 2: sponsor of terror, a long step beyond better hope, hoping
15:26
Speaker 2: for better relations with a Ran someday, as you might
15:29
Speaker 2: do in a holiday.
15:30
Speaker 1: Greeting, Sinta, I just gotta stop. And I do love
15:33
Speaker 1: the revisionist history from Barack Obama. He's like, hey, I
15:37
Speaker 1: wanted to stay with the people at Iran, but my
15:39
Speaker 1: team told me not to. So therefore that's why I
15:43
Speaker 1: didn't do it. Leaders lead like straight up. Leaders lead,
15:46
Speaker 1: You lead that you're at the front of the ship.
15:48
Speaker 1: You're in charge. It's it's supposed to be your foreign policy.
15:52
Speaker 1: And then you look at what he actually did with
15:54
Speaker 1: Iran and you understand he was aiding in a betting
15:57
Speaker 1: and helping them stay on top in Iran. Like, let's
16:01
Speaker 1: just be clear, we sent them money. Yeah.
16:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look to understand leader's lead. And by the way
16:08
Speaker 2: Obama was leading. Obama was leading. There is there's practically
16:12
Speaker 2: not an Islamist on planet Earth that he didn't coddle,
16:15
Speaker 2: embrace and send money.
16:16
Speaker 1: True, it was right right when he got elected. Remember
16:19
Speaker 1: it was all about the buzzom world in a reset.
16:22
Speaker 2: And by the way, when he was brand new in office,
16:24
Speaker 2: he flew to as president, he flew to Cairo, to
16:27
Speaker 2: the University of Cairo, and he gave a speech where
16:28
Speaker 2: he said Iran has a right and he used the
16:31
Speaker 2: word right to nuclear weapons nuclear technology. Actually didn't say weapons,
16:35
Speaker 2: he said nuclear technology technology. That was absurd. And so
16:39
Speaker 2: his claiming to be reluctant, I think is a brazen lie.
16:43
Speaker 2: This is his ideology. And by the way, it came
16:46
Speaker 2: to full flower under the Biden White House. And I
16:48
Speaker 2: think the history for a lot of folks that may
16:51
Speaker 2: not remember what was happening. Look, two thousand and nine
16:53
Speaker 2: was sixteen seventeen years ago, was a long time ago. Yeah,
16:58
Speaker 2: let me jump forward because the question then is okay,
17:01
Speaker 2: what's different now? And let me jump forward to this article.
17:04
Speaker 2: I think it's a really insightful article. So, after two
17:08
Speaker 2: weeks of the largest nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the
17:12
Speaker 2: Islamic Revolution, what has changed and why? It has nothing
17:16
Speaker 2: to do with negotiating tables and lots to do with battlespace. First,
17:22
Speaker 2: let's note that this month's huge anti regime demonstrations in
17:25
Speaker 2: more than one hundred Iranian cities were not ignited by
17:30
Speaker 2: a single big domestic event like a blatantly stolen election
17:34
Speaker 2: or the murder of an innocent young woman. The Iranian
17:36
Speaker 2: real has been crashing, passed a million to the dollar.
17:40
Speaker 2: Let me say that again, one pasted one million to
17:45
Speaker 2: a dollar. That's their exchange rate for weeks, and inflation
17:49
Speaker 2: reached the point where the Tehran Bazaar was losing money
17:54
Speaker 2: on every transaction, so it closed everything else.
18:00
Speaker 1: Every transaction. Just imagine having a story and everything you're
18:03
Speaker 1: selling you're losing money on how would you stay in business.
18:05
Speaker 1: That's why they closed down.
18:06
Speaker 2: It's incredible because hyperinflation. If the value of the rial
18:10
Speaker 2: falls day after day after day, you sell something for
18:14
Speaker 2: five million real and then the next day that five
18:17
Speaker 2: million real is worth a fraction of what it was
18:18
Speaker 2: worth the day before. That's why they closed. Something else
18:22
Speaker 2: drove the following events such as the South Pars energy
18:25
Speaker 2: strike and reported military affections. The battle space started shaping
18:31
Speaker 2: up six years ago this month under Trump, with the
18:34
Speaker 2: US killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps kud's forced
18:38
Speaker 2: commander Kassam Salamani, the second most powerful man in Iran,
18:43
Speaker 2: by US drones at Baghdad Airport. He had just arrived
18:47
Speaker 2: from Damascus, where he was briefing former Syrian president Bashar
18:50
Speaker 2: al Assad on a plan to attack the US embassy
18:55
Speaker 2: in Baghdad as it had been done in Tehran in
18:58
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy nine. Iran's Iraqi katspaw Abu Madi al Mahandis
19:05
Speaker 2: and ten senior Iranian briefers and bodyguards were also killed
19:10
Speaker 2: in the strike. After twenty years a Bush, Obama and
19:15
Speaker 2: Biden kid gloves, Tehran was legitimately frightened, and then after
19:23
Speaker 2: the Tehran directed atrocity against Israel in October twenty twenty three,
19:28
Speaker 2: Israel killed Yaha Sinwar, mohammadif Hasrand, Nosrala, Ibrahima kil Hashim
19:36
Speaker 2: Safedin and Ismail Haniya, added IRGC safehouse in Tehran and
19:43
Speaker 2: almost one hundred more in Lebanon and Gaza. Deprived of
19:48
Speaker 2: its decapitated Hezbela Pratorian guard, the Syrian bath Party didn't
19:54
Speaker 2: trust its own people any more than the Bolavarian Maduro
20:00
Speaker 2: trusted Venezuelans more than Cubans. The criminal Assad family fled
20:05
Speaker 2: to Moscow. Then last summer, the Israelian US air forces
20:10
Speaker 2: wiped out much of the Iranian military's general staff and
20:13
Speaker 2: key nuclear sites. The pro Tehran, Moscow and Beijing dominoes
20:19
Speaker 2: continue to fall. With the capture of Nicholas Maduro, the
20:23
Speaker 2: massacre of his Cuban protection detail, the seizure of Russian
20:27
Speaker 2: ghost ships, and the spread of Starlik terminals in Iran,
20:32
Speaker 2: Iranians have seen the regime and its backers exposed and
20:35
Speaker 2: humiliated by an American administration, and they were quick to
20:39
Speaker 2: exploit this roll of the dice. Unlike Prohamas nihilists from
20:45
Speaker 2: Berkeley to Dublin. They have hit their streets in millions
20:50
Speaker 2: without a single kefia or aluja Akbar, motivated by American
20:57
Speaker 2: successes against their regime and its effeckless backers. At the
21:03
Speaker 2: time of writing, the regime has turned off the Internet
21:07
Speaker 2: and all landlines, and Kameni has engaged emerged from a
21:11
Speaker 2: two day silence to express defiance. This is no surprise
21:16
Speaker 2: to anyone who knows that Kameni's greatest fear is moderation
21:21
Speaker 2: that causes the regime to bend and then break, as
21:25
Speaker 2: expressed in Alex Vatanka's The Battle of the Iyatolas in Iran,
21:30
Speaker 2: Kameni became obsessed with the prospect of an Iranian Gorbachev
21:36
Speaker 2: who would impose reforms and usher in a USSR style collapse.
21:42
Speaker 2: The more so because this was addressed by Tom Friedman,
21:45
Speaker 2: a Jewish American journalist, in a nineteen ninety six column
21:49
Speaker 2: titled Waiting for Iyatola Gorbachev after he visited Iran that
21:56
Speaker 2: pressed all of the leader's buttons, his defiance to continue
22:02
Speaker 2: as long as he is alive or in power, which
22:06
Speaker 2: may not be long, and listen to this because he
22:09
Speaker 2: faces two threats. The one in front of him is
22:13
Speaker 2: the unpredictable Donald Trump, who has already shed Iranian blood
22:17
Speaker 2: and has promised to rescue the Iranian people. The one
22:21
Speaker 2: behind him is the IRGC, which holds all the firepower
22:26
Speaker 2: in Iran, and which knows, as Mohammed am Dinijad do,
22:31
Speaker 2: that the Mallahs are despised by nearly the entire population.
22:37
Speaker 2: They are unlikely to lay down their guns or give
22:40
Speaker 2: up the forty percent of the Iranian economy they control.
22:43
Speaker 2: They are led by Ahmed Vahiti and internationally sanctioned terrorists.
22:49
Speaker 2: Quote terrorists are acts was a wise saying of one
22:54
Speaker 2: of my counter terrorist colleagues at the CIA. She didn't
22:58
Speaker 2: just mean that terror plots ruined our weekends and sleep schedules.
23:02
Speaker 2: She meant that terrorists are psychopathic, disloyal, and venal creatures
23:07
Speaker 2: who could and did mistreated each other and turn against
23:10
Speaker 2: each other. The top ranks of the IRGC are full
23:14
Speaker 2: of them, and this is the final point what might
23:18
Speaker 2: lead the IRGC to sideline or overthrow Kameeni and his
23:22
Speaker 2: weak president Masud Pezeshkian. Two kinds of strike, an anti
23:30
Speaker 2: regime blow from the United States or the labor variety
23:34
Speaker 2: that would shut down Iranians Iran's energy sector if both occur,
23:41
Speaker 2: my money is on a coup and goodbye Mullahs. And
23:46
Speaker 2: this is from Peter Thurreau, spent twenty years in the
23:49
Speaker 2: US government and the CIA. I got to say, look,
23:52
Speaker 2: I appreciated that that article because it provides a level
23:56
Speaker 2: of context and detail, drawing a real difference between what
24:02
Speaker 2: happens when you have a weak pro Islamist president like
24:05
Speaker 2: Barack Obama or for that matter, Joe Biden in the
24:08
Speaker 2: White House versus a strong pro America president like Donald Trump,
24:12
Speaker 2: and I think the terrain is totally different, which is why,
24:15
Speaker 2: by the way, Trump is saying to the protesters, keep
24:19
Speaker 2: a list of the names of any soldiers who are
24:21
Speaker 2: committing atrocities, because there is going to be accountability. That
24:25
Speaker 2: carrot and stick is really powerful for deterring that kind
24:28
Speaker 2: of horrific action.
24:30
Speaker 1: You know, there's part of this article, and I think
24:32
Speaker 1: we should talk about this for a moment, because there
24:36
Speaker 1: is I had at dinner the other night with some
24:38
Speaker 1: oil executives and they were frustrated a little bit because
24:40
Speaker 1: the price of oil has come down, and one of
24:43
Speaker 1: the people at the table was also White House, and
24:46
Speaker 1: they said, what you don't understand is that our energy
24:50
Speaker 1: inpendent's policy is also a national security policy because when
24:54
Speaker 1: you take away the money that is to the leadership
24:56
Speaker 1: in Iran, to Vladimir Putin in Russia. Venezuela is another
25:01
Speaker 1: example of this, right, then what the money that they
25:06
Speaker 1: need to survive and to hold on to power and
25:09
Speaker 1: to pay their forces to keep them in power and
25:11
Speaker 1: to go after their citizens just completely disappears. That is
25:16
Speaker 1: part of I think what Donald Trump, and it was
25:18
Speaker 1: very interesting to hear this kind of back and forth.
25:20
Speaker 1: There's like, hey, I'm sorry that the price of per
25:22
Speaker 1: barrel is not where you want it, but it's helping
25:25
Speaker 1: American families a lower gas prices, and it's a national
25:28
Speaker 1: security thing for us as well. And it's allowing some
25:31
Speaker 1: of these horrible people in the world to start tetering
25:34
Speaker 1: a little bit because they don't have the cash flow
25:36
Speaker 1: they had two three four years ago under democratic leadership.
25:40
Speaker 2: I think that's right. There's also a balance that President
25:43
Speaker 2: Trump and the Trump administration are trying to strike, which
25:46
Speaker 2: is we've seen the price of oil drop dramatically from
25:49
Speaker 2: one hundred bucks a barrel to down just around sixty
25:52
Speaker 2: bucks of barrel, a little bit lower. That has weakened
25:56
Speaker 2: almost every bad guy in the world. That is weak
25:58
Speaker 2: in Russia, that is week in Deran, that is weak
26:01
Speaker 2: in Venezuela, and Maduro because it is I guess God
26:05
Speaker 2: has a sense of humor in that that many of
26:07
Speaker 2: the worst players on planet Earth depend upon oil revenues.
26:12
Speaker 2: There are in many ways Petro tyrants. Now Duro's not
26:15
Speaker 2: Maduro is innate number two, five seven.
26:18
Speaker 1: Whatever, But he used sticking out with p Diddy.
26:23
Speaker 2: But I'll say this, Look, there is a balance because
26:27
Speaker 2: from a US national security interest, Look, oil and gas
26:30
Speaker 2: and energy are powerful weapons against our enemies and to
26:34
Speaker 2: buttress America. But you don't want to slash the price
26:38
Speaker 2: of oil so dramatically that you devastate US producers. And
26:43
Speaker 2: as you know, I talked to I represent Texas, I
26:45
Speaker 2: talk to a lot of US producers, and I will say,
26:49
Speaker 2: at down around sixty seventy dollars a barrel, you see
26:53
Speaker 2: what we've got now, which is gas prices at about
26:56
Speaker 2: two three bucks a gallon, depending on what part of
26:58
Speaker 2: the country you're in. Now, if you're in California, there's
27:00
Speaker 2: still four five bucks a gallon.
27:01
Speaker 1: But that's that's on you for a living in California
27:03
Speaker 1: voting for those nut jobs.
27:04
Speaker 2: But again that's Davenew some of the Democrats fault. But
27:07
Speaker 2: here here in Texas, you fill up your tank, it's
27:09
Speaker 2: you know, somewhere between two and three bucks typically is
27:11
Speaker 2: what you're paying right now. I think that's a sweet
27:15
Speaker 2: spot is sixty to seventy dollars. Where it get lowers
27:18
Speaker 2: under Biden, when we had one hundred dollars oil, you
27:21
Speaker 2: were seeing four five, six seven dollars a gallon a gasoline.
27:24
Speaker 2: That really hurts consumers.
27:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, I say, crushing middle and lower class families even
27:29
Speaker 1: more than anybody else.
27:30
Speaker 2: I will say this, if you see oil prices plummet,
27:34
Speaker 2: so let's say they drop from the sixties down to
27:37
Speaker 2: say the forties.
27:37
Speaker 1: Are below, it hurts that lot of people.
27:40
Speaker 2: That's when it starts doing real damage, in particular to
27:43
Speaker 2: the independent producers, the small guys in West Texas and
27:49
Speaker 2: the Permian. That's when you see drilling basically stop. And
27:52
Speaker 2: by the way, the majors will be fine. The x
27:54
Speaker 2: on mobiles, the Chevrons, I mean, look, those are companies
27:58
Speaker 2: that literally have more revenue assets than most countries on
28:02
Speaker 2: planet Earth. They're that massive, So the majors will survive
28:06
Speaker 2: a drop. But what happens if we see forty dollars oil,
28:10
Speaker 2: You'll see bankruptcy bankruptcies throughout the Permian basin of the
28:15
Speaker 2: small producers. And when those guys go away, those are
28:18
Speaker 2: the guys driving production. And what it does is it
28:23
Speaker 2: weakens America's ability to produce oil and makes us more
28:27
Speaker 2: dependent on foreign adversary. So I think what President Trump
28:30
Speaker 2: of the administration is trying to do is stay in
28:32
Speaker 2: a sweet spot where oil is low enough that our
28:35
Speaker 2: enemies are weakened, but not so low that we're devastating
28:39
Speaker 2: us small businesses. And I think they're doing a pretty
28:42
Speaker 2: good job of trying to balance those two factors well.
28:45
Speaker 1: And I was talking to some small refineries and that
28:48
Speaker 1: was exactly their concern center was, Hey, these small refineries
28:52
Speaker 1: that keep these small towns going, that employ a lot
28:54
Speaker 1: of people. They want to make sure that they're okay
28:57
Speaker 1: as well. And like you said, that's where this administration
28:59
Speaker 1: came and asked away both ends of this, because you
29:02
Speaker 1: don't want to hurt mom and pops. You don't want
29:04
Speaker 1: to hurt the small ones like you said, the big
29:05
Speaker 1: ones will be okay, but these small refineries that literally
29:10
Speaker 1: power these small towns where they are, you don't want
29:13
Speaker 1: them to get hurt either.
29:14
Speaker 2: Yeah. And look, in the last several weeks, with everything
29:17
Speaker 2: happening in Iran, everything happening in Venezuela, I've been reaching
29:20
Speaker 2: out to energy leaders, primarily in Texas. So I've had
29:23
Speaker 2: conversations with the CEO of Chevron and the CEO of Valero,
29:27
Speaker 2: the biggest refiner in America, and I've had conversations with
29:30
Speaker 2: a number of smaller e E and P expiration and
29:33
Speaker 2: production independence in West Texas, and they've expressed optimism. Number
29:42
Speaker 2: one in terms of Venezuela. Venezuela, as we've talked about,
29:45
Speaker 2: has the highest proven reserves of oil in the world.
29:48
Speaker 2: No country has more. But the Venezuelan infrastructure is completely collapsed.
29:54
Speaker 2: Communism is not capable of producing what they should and
29:58
Speaker 2: so Venezuela right now is producing about a million barrels
30:02
Speaker 2: a day, which is a fraction of what their capacity is.
30:05
Speaker 2: I will say I I asked one of the major CEOs,
30:08
Speaker 2: I said, okay, what would the time frame be to
30:11
Speaker 2: take Venezuela from one million barrels a day to three
30:15
Speaker 2: million barrels a day. And the response was ten years.
30:19
Speaker 2: That it doesn't happen over like, it would take tens
30:24
Speaker 2: of billions of dollars of investment, and perhaps north of
30:27
Speaker 2: one hundred billion dollars. Now you would recoup that, but
30:30
Speaker 2: the infrastructure has so degraded. And I said, all right,
30:34
Speaker 2: so ten years to go from one million a day
30:36
Speaker 2: to three million a day, how about just from one
30:38
Speaker 2: to two And the answer was five to seven years.
30:42
Speaker 2: So the first millions, it's.
30:45
Speaker 1: An infrastrucstruct it's just straight up infrastructure.
30:48
Speaker 2: Right, and you could keep going up from there. I
30:50
Speaker 2: also am talking to refiners. So so Venezuela produces what
30:56
Speaker 2: is called heavy sour crude, which is a different sort
31:00
Speaker 2: of crude than in West Texas, they produce what's called
31:03
Speaker 2: light sweet crude. You refine them very very differently. Now,
31:07
Speaker 2: it so happens that the refineries that were built to
31:10
Speaker 2: handle heavy sour crude are along the Gulf coast. They're
31:13
Speaker 2: in Texas and Louisiana, and so we've got the capacity.
31:17
Speaker 2: I've been told that the Gulf coast refineries could almost
31:20
Speaker 2: overnight refine an additional two hundred and fifty thousand barrels
31:25
Speaker 2: of the heavy crude from Venezuela. Now, interestingly enough, when
31:29
Speaker 2: I've asked the refiners, okay, what would the trade off be,
31:31
Speaker 2: what would the impact be? Say for West Texas producers,
31:35
Speaker 2: the refiners at least were not that concerned about it,
31:37
Speaker 2: and they said, look, the other producers of heavy crude
31:41
Speaker 2: are Canada and so the Tarsans in Alberta. And I said,
31:45
Speaker 2: look more Venezuelan crude would impact Canada and actually Mexico.
31:50
Speaker 2: Mexico also produces similar crude to what Venezuela and Canada produce.
31:55
Speaker 2: And so that in terms of the impact, those are
31:59
Speaker 2: the trade offs. Those that's the kind of decision making
32:02
Speaker 2: the Trump administration is engaged in right now.
32:05
Speaker 1: It's a new year, twenty twenty six. You've probably heard
32:08
Speaker 1: the name bitcoin and cryptocurrency. So the question so many
32:11
Speaker 1: people have is is it safe? And is it something
32:14
Speaker 1: that I should be invested in. It's a question I
32:17
Speaker 1: want to get answered for you today in joining me
32:19
Speaker 1: now to talk about that. As a co founder of
32:21
Speaker 1: Bitcoin Ira Chris Klin, Chris, I appreciate you being here,
32:26
Speaker 1: and it is pretty cool to see what's happened in
32:28
Speaker 1: the crypto space. It has become normal. It now can
32:31
Speaker 1: be a part of your IRA. The federal government has
32:34
Speaker 1: changed the rules. They're accepting cryptocurrency like it's a stock.
32:38
Speaker 3: Yes, absolutely, and it's really driven itself into a mainstream space.
32:42
Speaker 3: I remember a decade ago when we first started bitcoin
32:45
Speaker 3: IRA and everybody was like, are you crazy kid, You're
32:48
Speaker 3: putting bitcoin in retirement accounts? Is this even possible? And
32:51
Speaker 3: you fast forward to where we're at today, where countries
32:54
Speaker 3: are building stockpiles, corporations are building stockpiles. Strategy, for example,
32:58
Speaker 3: is pretty much its entire business models on this. It's
33:00
Speaker 3: a piece of diversification that every major player in the
33:04
Speaker 3: space and economics is looking at, and so should too,
33:07
Speaker 3: the individual sovereignty of the average American looking to put
33:09
Speaker 3: it inside of their retirement.
33:10
Speaker 1: You guys actually have a really cool stat that you
33:12
Speaker 1: told me about at dinner, and that is that your
33:15
Speaker 1: clients seventy five percent were born before nineteen seventy six.
33:20
Speaker 1: So the idea that you may be missed out on
33:22
Speaker 1: this or if you're a little older, it's a young
33:24
Speaker 1: man's game and crypto that is also just not true.
33:27
Speaker 3: That's definitely one of the myths I wanted to come
33:29
Speaker 3: to bunk with you in your audience, isn't this isn't
33:32
Speaker 3: our grandfather's economy and grandfathers are buying bitcoin and putting
33:36
Speaker 3: it inside of their retirement for long term holdings, especially
33:38
Speaker 3: now that they're thinking about inheritance and handing some of
33:40
Speaker 3: these things down. But yeah, that was actually shocking to me.
33:43
Speaker 3: We've discovered that in twenty eighteen that seventy five percent
33:46
Speaker 3: of them were older than my parents' generation. And what
33:50
Speaker 3: we found from surveying all of them was this is
33:52
Speaker 3: something that they think is new age and that I
33:54
Speaker 3: think almost every American, especially older ones, has a genuine
33:57
Speaker 3: concern of watching what's happened to the US over the
34:00
Speaker 3: last four or five decades. And there's always been gold
34:03
Speaker 3: and silver's a potential hedge, land, real estate, these scarce
34:06
Speaker 3: assets and bitcoin. While it may seem oh, that's digital
34:09
Speaker 3: and it's different, it's scarce. There's only twenty one million
34:12
Speaker 3: assets of bitcoin that will ever be mined. Nineteen and
34:14
Speaker 3: a half million have been mined so far, and you
34:17
Speaker 3: and I actually won't live our kids will probably live
34:19
Speaker 3: to see the last one get mined. This is something
34:21
Speaker 3: you know, we're in a world of abundance since I
34:23
Speaker 3: was born in nineteen eighty five. It's abundance. We just
34:25
Speaker 3: printed and printed and printed more. This is a moment
34:27
Speaker 3: in time where we may be able to revert back
34:29
Speaker 3: to scarcity, and there'll be a day we're just saying
34:31
Speaker 3: I have one Bitcoin will be life changing.
34:33
Speaker 1: Chris. I hope a lot of people that are watching this,
34:35
Speaker 1: you guys, will go and find out more. It is
34:37
Speaker 1: amazing what you can do in your retirement account now,
34:41
Speaker 1: just like your other investments with bitcoin cryptocurrency. Find out
34:45
Speaker 1: more right now at bitcoinira dot com, slash ben that's
34:49
Speaker 1: bitcoin ira dot com, slash ben and see what cryptocurrency
34:55
Speaker 1: can do for your portfolio. I want to ask you
34:57
Speaker 1: one final question before we wrap here. We talked a
35:00
Speaker 1: lot about Venezuela in the last couple of shows. We
35:02
Speaker 1: kind of know the state of play there. We talked
35:06
Speaker 1: a lot about it Ran today. Can you give us
35:09
Speaker 1: for everyone listening just a quick update on what's happening
35:12
Speaker 1: in Cuba. We've mentioned it several times of how things
35:16
Speaker 1: could be teetering there. Give a little bit of an
35:18
Speaker 1: update for people that so they understand what's happening on
35:21
Speaker 1: the ground there as we wrap things up.
35:22
Speaker 2: So, look, the Cuban regime has been a communist dictatorship
35:26
Speaker 2: since nineteen fifty nine. As you know, that for me
35:29
Speaker 2: is not some abstract statement because my family was directly
35:33
Speaker 2: involved in him. My dad was a kid. He was
35:35
Speaker 2: fourteen when he began fighting in the Cuban Revolution. And
35:40
Speaker 2: to this day, my dad turns eighty seven in March,
35:43
Speaker 2: and he told me, he said, look the revolution. He said,
35:47
Speaker 2: it was fourteen and fifteen year old boys who he said,
35:50
Speaker 2: we're too stupid to know any better. And as you know,
35:54
Speaker 2: you know my dad. Well, but when I want to
35:56
Speaker 2: give my father grief, I'll call my dad a communist gorilla.
36:01
Speaker 2: He gets very mad.
36:03
Speaker 1: I have him feeling that. So during game night, when
36:05
Speaker 1: you guys are playing games, I just I feel like
36:07
Speaker 1: that's one of that's gonna get used the most.
36:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he will say I was not a communist.
36:11
Speaker 2: I was never a communist. He was a kid and
36:14
Speaker 2: they were fighting against Batista, who was a dictator. He
36:18
Speaker 2: was corrupt, and Batista's thugs through my father in prison
36:24
Speaker 2: and they tortured him. And so when my dad came
36:26
Speaker 2: to America, he was fleeing Batista, and he came to
36:28
Speaker 2: Texas at eighteen with nothing, and he couldn't speak English.
36:32
Speaker 2: He came seeking freedom. His younger sister is my Theosnia,
36:37
Speaker 2: and might theos Sonia. I adore my theos Sonia. I
36:39
Speaker 2: call her my Theoloka. She's my crazy aunt. She is
36:42
Speaker 2: a fireball. She was there in fifty nine when Castro
36:47
Speaker 2: took over, and the young people, the Cubans didn't realize
36:51
Speaker 2: Castro was a communist. They just thought it was a
36:54
Speaker 2: people's revolution against Batista. He took over and he clared
36:57
Speaker 2: he was a communist. He began firing squads, he began
37:01
Speaker 2: executing anyone who disagreed with him against seizing people's lands.
37:05
Speaker 2: And and my Theosagnia fought in the counter revolution. Was
37:09
Speaker 2: that there was a whole counter revolution of the people
37:12
Speaker 2: trying to fight back. And my theoso Onia ended up
37:14
Speaker 2: being thrown in prison and tortured by Castro's goons. So
37:20
Speaker 2: I take it very personally when it comes to communism,
37:22
Speaker 2: it strikes very close to home. If you look at
37:26
Speaker 2: the history of Cuba, starting early on from when Castro
37:29
Speaker 2: took over and made Cuba a communist dictatorship, for decades,
37:34
Speaker 2: Cuba was effectively a satellite state of the Soviet Union,
37:38
Speaker 2: remember the whole Cuban Mission missile crisis under JFK, and
37:41
Speaker 2: the Soviets provided them a financial lifeline. Look, if you're
37:45
Speaker 2: a communist, you destroy the economy. That happens all across
37:50
Speaker 2: the world. Communism is a great way to destroy jobs
37:53
Speaker 2: and make your people incredibly poor. Cuba went from it
37:57
Speaker 2: was the number one sugar producer in all of Latin America,
38:00
Speaker 2: and they just destroyed the sugar industry and everything else
38:03
Speaker 2: and brought massive poverty to Cuba. They survived because the
38:07
Speaker 2: Soviet Union sent them money, and they sent them money
38:10
Speaker 2: because the Soviets wanted a military satellite just ninety miles
38:14
Speaker 2: off the coast of America. Now, when we won the
38:18
Speaker 2: Cold War, when the Soviet Union collapsed, suddenly that financial
38:22
Speaker 2: lifeline disappeared. And what happened was Venezuela stepped into the
38:27
Speaker 2: breach and you had Huo Chavez and then later Maduro,
38:30
Speaker 2: both communist dictators who destroyed the economy in Venezuela, just
38:35
Speaker 2: like Castro had in Cuba. Chavez and Maduro did the
38:39
Speaker 2: same thing in Venezuela and Venezuela had a corrupt bargain
38:43
Speaker 2: where they were sent oil which they had a ton of,
38:46
Speaker 2: and they would send money, which they had a lot of,
38:48
Speaker 2: in exchange for selling the oil, and what they would
38:51
Speaker 2: get back is is enforcers in thugs. There was a
38:54
Speaker 2: reason Morduro's entire protection detail were Cuban guards. And you
38:59
Speaker 2: know in the article I just ran, it talked about
39:01
Speaker 2: how one of the reasons is Maduro didn't trust Venezuelans
39:05
Speaker 2: because he was such a terrible leader that he was
39:07
Speaker 2: afraid Venezuelans would turn on him, which is why he
39:09
Speaker 2: used Cuban enforcers instead. Well, with Venezuela, with Maduro having
39:16
Speaker 2: been arrested, no longer in power, Venezuela is no longer
39:19
Speaker 2: sending oil and no longer sending money to Cuba, and
39:22
Speaker 2: the Cuban economy is in freefall, just like the Iranian
39:25
Speaker 2: economy is in freefall. The regime is incredibly precarious. And
39:29
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what's keeping it alive right now, which
39:31
Speaker 2: is Mexico is still sending oil to Cuba. And my
39:35
Speaker 2: hope is the Trump administration is going to lean on
39:38
Speaker 2: Mexico to stop that oil going to Cuba. I think
39:42
Speaker 2: that may be the single most important piece to nudge
39:47
Speaker 2: Cuba beyond the tipping point, much like Iran is, and
39:50
Speaker 2: I think the communist dictatorship is terrified that they will
39:55
Speaker 2: lose control.
39:56
Speaker 1: Now.
39:57
Speaker 2: The counterbalance to that is the Cuban regime has a
40:02
Speaker 2: massive oppressive machinery that has been in place for decades,
40:08
Speaker 2: and that machinery can be really brutal, and so I
40:12
Speaker 2: think the vulnerability right now is that when people face
40:18
Speaker 2: a collapsing economy, they get angry and they can turn
40:22
Speaker 2: on their leaders. And so I think the Trump administration,
40:25
Speaker 2: I think President Trump is encouraging that. But it is
40:28
Speaker 2: the economic factor, more than anything that I think is
40:31
Speaker 2: putting the regime in a massively fragile position.
40:35
Speaker 1: It's gonna be very interesting to see what happens in
40:36
Speaker 1: the days and weeks ahead on this, because, like you said,
40:39
Speaker 1: it's teetering at the moment. How long can you teeter
40:42
Speaker 1: before the people also rise up, which is what we've
40:45
Speaker 1: seen in Venezuela. It's also what we've seen certainly day
40:48
Speaker 1: to day in Iran. And the question is what happens
40:51
Speaker 1: X and Cuba. We're going to cover it all here
40:53
Speaker 1: don't forget. We do this show Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
40:56
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41:02
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41:16
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