Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Ethereum ETF in 10 Days?🔥Crypto Market Update
Transcript
- 0:08A lot happening with ethereum today, and of course some people maybe have somehow
- 0:13figured out when this eth ETF is going to launch. We'll break it down
- 0:16for you along with a little bit more around the markets from a macro standpoint.
- 0:20You guys don't want to miss it. My name is Paul Baron,
- 0:22Welcome back in the tech path. Let's get started. I do want to
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- 1:19you a ten percent off. Well, you know, everybody's been asking about
- 1:23this, and it has occurred. The Republicans have now come in and the
- 1:27House GOP leaders are declaring Biden unfit and alleging a cover up of his mental
- 1:34state. This is a big statement from the Republicans in a way that could
- 1:41move the markets a little bit. We may see a little bit of this
- 1:45in terms of how this may affect markets in general, including the S and
- 1:48P five hundred. But I think a lot of people are probably saying,
- 1:49well, how does this affect probly market? And if you look right here,
- 1:55Joe Biden right now, this is looking at the six hour up lightly
- 2:00actually and then rose a little bit so, and this of course is whether
- 2:05or not he's going to make the nominee ballot in November. We'll see how
- 2:09this plays out, but political scenarios are definitely in play right now. I
- 2:15think both sides are definitely at bay. Right now, we're going to get
- 2:20into a few tweets right here. This is a summary of the Chair Palell's
- 2:23testimony. A couple of things. I think most of this is stuff you
- 2:28guys have probably seen, but I want to kind of make a few notes
- 2:30here. He didn't support the confidence around inflation, so the cuts are probably
- 2:37not going to happen for as we've been talking about, probably untill later in
- 2:39the year. Not appropriate. Needs greater confidence on inflation heading to two.
- 2:44I think at once they go sub three, then maybe we have a possibility
- 2:47of it rates too late could be unduly weakened the coomy. That's a big
- 2:52concern that I think even Chair Palala is kind of the riding the fence on
- 2:57the US economy is expanding at a solid pace. I'm still in disagreement with
- 3:01that one because I feel like we are seeing much more impact on the economic
- 3:07front than what even Chair Pala is talking about here. Labor market conditions have
- 3:12cooled but remain very strong. Again. I think jobs are still cooling much
- 3:16more than maybe some people have expected, and inflation Elevated inflation is not the
- 3:23only risk we face. They're looking at more of a economic meltdown. And
- 3:28I think this is the concern that many people have is with continued high rates,
- 3:32does it unduly put pressure on small business for growth? And that's the
- 3:37number one job creator in the United States is small business. So this is
- 3:42where I think we are right now. We're in a very precarious state where
- 3:46small business is now starting to get impacted. And how this plays out through
- 3:50summer because remember a lot of these small businesses, summer months are their bread
- 3:54and butter, So you're going to find out pretty quickly how well the economy
- 3:59is doing, especially around retail sales other things that are happening. German government
- 4:03has now left with twenty two eight hundred and bitcoins, so listen, they're
- 4:06running out, so pretty soon eventually that's going to be off the table.
- 4:12We might see some movement positively from bitcoin and start to see some inflows I
- 4:16think on bitcoin. We'll take a look at the chart as well. The
- 4:20eth etf applicants filed their updated s one. You've got everybody in here,
- 4:25all the you know, all the key players, Fidelity, van Agt,
- 4:29Franklin, twenty one, Grayscale, black Rock, you know, all the
- 4:32typical players. They understand what's up, and they understand what's going on,
- 4:36and that is ETH is going to explode when this ETF hits. I just
- 4:41feel it. There's just too much there. Now, Garassi gets into a
- 4:45couple of theories behind this. I might be in agreement with this, and
- 4:50he said that Gray Scale just announced as set a record July eighteenth for the
- 4:56initial creation and distribution of the Ethereum Mini Trust, and the E will contribute
- 5:01ten percent of its ETH to its Mini trust. Why do you do that?
- 5:05Well, you know, is there something coming in that could be possibly
- 5:11affecting that many trust? Well, this would be an ETHTF. You look
- 5:15at the Ethereum Trust right here, eth and continuing to fly up. So
- 5:21still in a good position overall. And I do want to get to a
- 5:26few clips because the clips will give us a little more insight onto not only
- 5:30where the potential is for this ETF, but what to expect once it does
- 5:36get here. Here's Garassie take a look. Yeah, it's really interesting because
- 5:41if you look at the spot price of ether, it's actually down over twenty
- 5:45percent since those nineteen by four's were proved. On these spotty three ETFs we're
- 5:48talking about I think that just shows some general weakness in the markets right now,
- 5:55and as I think about spot etheror ETF's coming to market and what the
- 5:59demand might look like and how that might impact the spot price of ether.
- 6:03If you look right now, the underlying spot ether market is about one third
- 6:08the size of the spot bitcoin market, and I think that's a decent proxy
- 6:13for what to expect from spot ether ETF. So about a third of the
- 6:16demand of bitcoin ETFs. If that happens, we would still be talking about
- 6:21one of the most successful ETF launches, Zephyr. Yeah. So even with
- 6:27that, and again one third would be significant, That is enough I think
- 6:30to move the market significantly. Now does it have the kind of impact that
- 6:34the Bitcoin ETF happened. I think that starts to play in when people start
- 6:40to understand and what I'm talking about there is asset managers start to understand what
- 6:44is going on with ethereum in general and the potential for it. Because the
- 6:47opportunity is what is the potential of it, people start researching a lot more.
- 6:51I think asset managers will start asking a lot more questions, and I
- 6:56think that's when things get a little bit more involved. And also very positive
- 7:00for this. Now, there was another clip here with Matt Hogan and Garassian
- 7:03and they were talking about, you know, how much in the way of
- 7:06changes did you have to make for the ETF when it would launch? So
- 7:11what kind of things would they have to do to be able to deal with
- 7:14the ETF launch in itself? Take a look, how much do you need?
- 7:16How much did you need to amend your application? And when do you
- 7:21think approval might be likely? Yeah, great questions, Bob. I can't
- 7:25speak beyond what's in the filing, but I think if you look, the
- 7:28amendments from the previous one were relatively limited, and that tells us that we're
- 7:32getting closer to the finish line. I think what you're hearing about this week
- 7:36or next that makes sense to me. This has been a very fast process.
- 7:41Remember, only two months ago, no one thought we were going to
- 7:44see these ETFs. Now it seems likely we will and we'll see what the
- 7:46response is. So, just for me, we're not familiar with this.
- 7:49The fact that you're the amendments, that you had the SEC filed comments in
- 7:55response to your S one and you now filed amended comments, the fact that
- 8:00the changes you had to make were minimal is a good sign, right for
- 8:03people to understand this process. That's right. It's like a fine tuning process.
- 8:07Sometimes it takes one amendment for the Bitcoin ETFs, I think it took
- 8:09six amendments. We're on amendment two or three on ethereum. But it we're
- 8:15getting to the end of the road, is what it looks like based on
- 8:18the scale of the changes. You can't guarantee anything. You could get a
- 8:20curveball at any point, but it feels like we're getting to the sharp end
- 8:24of the point, all right, So that's good If they are in the
- 8:30alliance of saying okay, there changes are getting less or less critical. That
- 8:35usually will mean that you're going to see the trigger occur. The trigger meaning
- 8:39marketing. And when we start seeing that marketing start to flow out, you
- 8:43know that next step is an approval. I think again back to the point
- 8:48of where these asset managers will start to understand a lot more about ETH as
- 8:52a whole in terms of an investment class and really start to change some minds
- 8:56out there. Further thing into this is you look at whether or not eth
- 9:01versus bitcoin, because this is the scenario that I think a lot of this
- 9:03is what's happening out there. At least when asset manager I talked to is
- 9:07they always wait that you know, it's the eath versus Bitcoin, What mix
- 9:11do they put in for their clients? All that kind of stuff, because
- 9:13now they're playing this and you could also look at that from a Steake Deeth
- 9:18position as well. Now, Vanak mats Egel, we're going to have him
- 9:22on the show this week talking about the Salona ETF potential coming in from Vanak,
- 9:26but he had some interesting, you know, observations. Take a look.
- 9:31Also want to kind of double down here on the question between the Theoryum
- 9:35and Solana, because if you were one of the few issuers that maybe offering
- 9:39both ETFs, how do you talk to clients about it? They are direct
- 9:43competitors, well, I mean, fiduciaries want to pick the asset that they
- 9:48think is going to go up the most and then take a bet. So
- 9:50this is the largest capital markets in the world. We're in the business of
- 9:54designing intelligent investment products and letting our clients choose. We've put out a lot
- 9:58of research on why we think that Solana may end up as the blockchain with
- 10:03the largest market share. But let's let the clients decide. And I would
- 10:07note that the SEC, you know, all of these ethereum ETF applicants are
- 10:13you know, have filed now they have live filings, but it is not
- 10:16too late for the SEC to do the right thing and revert to its traditional
- 10:20first come, first serve process towards approving these ETFs. And under that framework,
- 10:26you know Vanak would go first. All right, So my mistake there,
- 10:31he's talking about the sole scenario. I've got one more clip on with
- 10:35Karrossi and Huggan about the ETHTF, and I want to play that out because
- 10:39then we'll kind of get into the alignment on Salona, because I think many
- 10:43people are asking that. So let's go to that clip real quick. Staking
- 10:46allows you to make money essentially off of your investment. The SEC specifically excluded
- 10:52that. Why did they exclude it? I think it's an added complication and
- 10:56the SEC itself may have some concerns around whether staked ETF qualifies as a security
- 11:01or not. But if you look at the ethereum market, more than two
- 11:05thirds of all eth out there is unstaked. Most people investing just want to
- 11:11get exposure to this asset. Which is up thousands of percent over the last
- 11:15five years. The staking would be icing on the cake, you know.
- 11:18And of course ethereum is essentially smart contracts too, and it's a different technology
- 11:24really than bitcoin that I find that personally. I know we haven't talked about
- 11:26that, but I find ethereum far more interesting than bitcoin as an intellectual concept.
- 11:31I think a lot of people do, and I think that's going to
- 11:33drive demand. When people say bitcoin, they think digital goal. When they
- 11:37say Ethereum, they think tokenization, they think stable coins, they think defive.
- 11:41If you want to invest in those things, if you want to invest
- 11:46in the growth of tokenization, Ethereum is like the picks and shovels play.
- 11:50It underpins all of it. You can't have tokenization today without ethereum, you
- 11:54can't have a robust stable coin market. And I think that is going to
- 11:58appease may excited me because DeFi is much more exciting to me than the idea
- 12:05of a new currency created x nilo out of nothing. Essentially, because with
- 12:11smart contracts now you have the possibility to do real estate transactions, you could
- 12:15do stock settlement, you send money to a friend in England, you can
- 12:18do almost anything with that that is exciting because that essentially utilizes the blockchain concept.
- 12:26All right, So let's just be clear, guys, the CNBC Matt
- 12:28Hogan, most likely this is a paid spot. Those are talking points of
- 12:35what I would think would be an ETF company, and you do have to
- 12:39consider those things. But to his point, he hits on all the right
- 12:43talking points for an investor, which is what these asset manager are going to
- 12:46be doing, and they're saying, hey, you know, the theory is
- 12:48a little bit more interesting. Here's the reasons why. Obviously people understand,
- 12:52especially now I think people in the emerging class of investors what I mean by
- 12:58that gen ZiLs to a certain extent, and that is what this might mean
- 13:01in terms of DeFi in terms of things like staking, but also just the
- 13:05ecosystem in general. A lot of strength there, which makes me still very
- 13:09bullish on how this plays out for the eth ETF. Now, going back
- 13:13over to van k and what they're doing with Solana, Salana ETF BO boosts
- 13:20again, and this of course was coming in right here after the CBO officially
- 13:24filed for a Slana ETF with the SEC. So we saw a little bit
- 13:28of movement here price went up a little bit. You can kind of see
- 13:31the crypto community expecting a possible major bullish breakout for Solana. I'd love to
- 13:35get you guys as feedback. Right now. Sala has been kind of,
- 13:39you know, wavering a little bit. Yes, we've seen slight growth.
- 13:41We'll look at the charts as well. But I'm kind of curious, so
- 13:43you bullish on Solana right now as eth with the current state of eth having
- 13:50the ETF right there literally at the cradle of happening, let me know in
- 13:56the comments, make sure and drop in some questions over on in the comments.
- 14:00I'll try to get some of those, and also smash the like button.
- 14:03If you like these live streams and you like keeping up this way,
- 14:05let us know, just hit that like button. It does help share the
- 14:09news. Twenty one shares van Ac first to launch Slona ETF products now seeking
- 14:13market approval after the CBOE has officially filed the nineteenth before. So this was
- 14:18all good. Rob Morocco, who's the global ahead of ETPED listening to or
- 14:24CBOE. Slana is one of the most traded cryptocurrencies after Bitcoin and ether,
- 14:28and the interest continues to grow. I think they may be surprised even more
- 14:31so when they start to really understand the Salana ecosystem is only going to get
- 14:37explored even more and more. And I think now you're going to get a
- 14:39lot of people in this that are trying to figure out this technology could really
- 14:45you know, revolutionize you know, what we know as the investment utilities that
- 14:50are out there. If a friendly cryptocurrency candidate is elected, everybody's looking at
- 14:54Trump of course, being in that position right now, the changes in the
- 14:58SEC commissioner might bring more beneficial conditions and I would have to agree. And
- 15:03you know, when you look at from the top of the show, where
- 15:07you've got the Republicans and the GOP really pushing hard to get Biden out of
- 15:11the position, this may be a bad thing for the Republicans because if Biden
- 15:16does not make it to the ballots, what does that look like now?
- 15:20It could it be Kamala Harris and a newly assigned vice president, Because that's
- 15:26what would happen if Biden were unfit for office. Kamala Harris would become a
- 15:31president and a newly assigned VP would go into position that could change things up
- 15:37pretty dramatically. So you just don't know. It's the unknown that I get
- 15:41a little bit concerned around, especially now because there's been so much work by
- 15:46us the crypto community. Coinbase, I know, has been doing a ton
- 15:50and I think in general the lawmakers have started to understand this and we could
- 15:54lose a little bit of steam going into this. Here's Eric bal Shutata talking
- 16:00about looks like Salona ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid March
- 16:03twenty twenty five. Yeah, but between now and then, the most important
- 16:07date is November. Interesting date because that is when we'll know if Trump is
- 16:15in the White House, and if he is, anything's possible. According to
- 16:18Balshonas, I think there is some big key things going on for sure.
- 16:22All right, guys, we've got a couple more clips here. I want
- 16:25to get to. This is Matt Siegel talking about eth and Saul and Soul
- 16:30whether or not they're direct competitors or would these kind of compliment each other as
- 16:33an ETF Take a look. I also want to kind of double down here
- 16:37on the question between the Theoryum and Solana, because if you were one of
- 16:40the few issuers that may be offering both ETFs, how do you talk to
- 16:44clients. All right, we'd already played that clip. The one I want
- 16:47to go to is the Yellen clip, which was her talking about the bill.
- 16:52Let's go to that one or the Fit twenty one bill. Let's go
- 16:55to that one. Real quick Fit twenty one. I want to thank you.
- 16:57I want to thank Undersecretary Lang for the work you did on looking at
- 17:03our digital assets regulatory framework, which we worked on mightily over the last year
- 17:07on a bipartisan basis. I particularly want to thank the White House for the
- 17:11Statement of Administration Policy which says that you're eager to work with Congress on developing
- 17:17legislation for digital assets to ensure a comprehensive and balanced regulatory framework. You continue
- 17:22to commit for the balance of this Congress to work with the Committee and in
- 17:27the Senate to achieve a regulatory framework for digital assets. Yes, very much
- 17:33so. I'm happy to make that commitment, and we have worked productively together.
- 17:38It would be nice to see this reach a good conclusion. The clip
- 17:47that we almost didn't put in the show today and then the research team kind
- 17:51of got it in and said, wait a minute, this is crazy.
- 17:53This is Yellen agreeing to aligning with what fit twenty one really means. And
- 18:00I think this is a huge step in the right direction. This could be
- 18:03a complete pivot, maybe even from the administration. I'm just wondering, because
- 18:07remember, we have a couple of other things happening. You've got the SAB
- 18:11one twenty one coming back through the House, whether that gets passed or not.
- 18:15You also have the roundtable happening this is tomorrow. And could we end
- 18:18up with something maybe on the other side of this that is a little different
- 18:22in terms of the Biden White House and their position on crypto. I don't
- 18:26know. There's just a lot happening here, and when you put that in,
- 18:30you know, in combination with some other things that are happening, like
- 18:34this right here, which is this is mister Chinceler. We're announcing today that
- 18:40policy Director Heather sklaven Corzo, she's going to be leaving the agency, and
- 18:45this is Corey Klamer is going to be appointed to the policy director. But
- 18:48she's leaving a couple of points here. She's going over to a new public
- 18:55policy firm called Mindset DC. So I just I don't know who Mindset represents,
- 19:00but likelihood is they have a number of clients in the financial services interests
- 19:04very interesting, including crypto focus. You got Paxo's paradigm in there. What's
- 19:11going on here? She changing teams here? Is that appear to be or
- 19:15are they looking for the exits right now as things start to heat up here
- 19:19for the market in terms of the sec and whether or not most of those
- 19:26I think administration are even going to be in play come November. Terred also
- 19:30came in with this element right here, which I think is interesting. I
- 19:34don't know. This is a Democratic staffer, so take it with a grain
- 19:38of salt. But mainly what they're saying is that the SAB one twenty one
- 19:44is going to get a new pathway through this House bill called fifty seven to
- 19:47forty one. This is a new thing around custodial assets. It's being offered
- 19:52up by French Hill and Mike Flood. So this would essentially include a writer.
- 19:57There's some things there that would Mainly, what they're talking about is kind
- 20:00of encompassing what SAB one twenty one was trying to do and rewriting it in
- 20:03a way to address the accounting treatment of digital assets, which is what the
- 20:07banks were trying to get to. So a lot of changes happening. As
- 20:11I said, very interesting political plays that are coming about. So you guys
- 20:17need to pay attention out there right now, especially with who you're voting for,
- 20:22understand what their position is. If you're a single issue voter like me,
- 20:26and that is, innovation equals crypto equals profit for most people, and
- 20:30or if you're in the SMP and you're looking at Nvidia and any of the
- 20:34AI moves or meta, you're looking for innovation. That's the whole point,
- 20:40and technology typically is leading that. So that's the way I vote. It's
- 20:44that simple. History has been made. Crypto is in the official GOP platform.
- 20:48This was another big breaking element. Republicans will end a Democrat's unlawful of
- 20:53an American crypto crackdown, opposed the creation of central bank digital currencies, and
- 20:59we'll defend the right so mind bitcoin and ensure every American has the right to
- 21:02self custody their digital assets. All of these are amazing statements. I just
- 21:08don't know if I can trust a government to do this, but if they
- 21:14do, this is coming in on the PDF right now, such a well
- 21:18designed pdf right here of the GOP platform. I'll go down to page nine,
- 21:25and in page nine it's hidden down here a little bit, but there
- 21:29it is right there, Crypto. Let me kind of zoom on a little
- 21:30bit right there, it's right there. Champion innovation, and I agree with
- 21:36that is if we're going to win in any of these emerging markets, if
- 21:41we're going to win in the evolution of a I blockchain, what we'll see
- 21:45in the way of Web three and really the next generation of payment systems and
- 21:48financial markets, these are the markets and the technologies that are going to do
- 21:52it. So I agree that they are on the right track. Let's hope
- 21:56that that is going to be the case. Other things coming in You've got
- 22:00Paul Greywall coming in here. Major American political party has declared its official platform
- 22:07is commit to self custody, and I think we need to get that from
- 22:11both parties, and all the Democratic Party would have to do is just the
- 22:15same thing. It would just be so easy for this to be a bipartisan
- 22:19potential that would possibly sway millions of voters, millions of voters. That's what
- 22:26I don't understand for sure. So lots happening out there. For sure,
- 22:30We're going to get into some of the charts and we are going to get
- 22:33into some questions and also the poll. Let's take a look at the poll
- 22:38real quick. All right, what do we have here when ethereum ETF less
- 22:44than ten days? Fifty two percent voice a tied heat here because the eighteenth
- 22:48seems to be that magical according to Garossi, it seems to be a magical
- 22:52time for the ETF. If I look at ethereum right now, and we're
- 23:00going to go over to the chart a little bit, and we'll let our
- 23:03sentiment our MSI is now available on Trading View, which you guys, if
- 23:07you're a part of the diamond circle in the MSI group or in our mastermind
- 23:11group you have, we'll be having access to these indicators right there. So
- 23:17right now, trading Semi seven sentiment right now still holding positive on overall four
- 23:22ethereum and it's still holding on the upside overall, which is right at about
- 23:27third three. And I'm on the AM. I on the daily here,
- 23:30let me see if I let me pop out real quick, I'm on the
- 23:33hourly. Let me go to the daily because on the daily, I think
- 23:36it's a little bit more negative. We'll jump down on that. Take a
- 23:38look at it. Don't forget to drop some questions in. Yeah, still
- 23:42on the negative. So we're watching this closely. I'm watching eighth closely.
- 23:47If it does go, you know, right now our numbers are in that
- 23:51thirty eight to thirty nine in terms of a pop on eth once the ETF
- 23:56starts to move. Let's go to a couple of questions. XRP have earned
- 23:59the to become an ETF, Yeah, that's for sure. And here's a
- 24:04scorpus thing. Ada was his biggest mistaken crypto. You know, as bad
- 24:08as it is for Cardinal, there was a lot of times when Cardono was
- 24:14a very high perform I won't say high performing, but well, yeah it
- 24:18was. It was a high performing investment. You know. Sure there's been
- 24:22challenges with with the ecosystem all those I get it, but you know,
- 24:26maybe just it's not it's play this time around. In terms of a bull
- 24:30market, what do we have here? Giovanni says, my account twenty five
- 24:34k went up to sixty K, didn't sell. Now it's a twenty thoughts,
- 24:37maybe I should give it up. I don't know. I'm still in
- 24:41a very bullish theme right now with where the markets are, whether it's bitcoin
- 24:47ethereum, all the blue chips in general. If you're looking at Solana,
- 24:52you know, I mean this is still a very bullish trend right now,
- 24:56money flow right now on bitcoin still exiting the market for sure. Do you
- 25:00truly think Trump will be good for crypto? As bad as I hate to
- 25:06say it, I think it will be. Now. He's going to be
- 25:08bad for a lot of other things, but for innovation. This is a
- 25:12business guy. I know, business guys are maybe not the best to run
- 25:18governments because many people believe that there's a lot more things beside that. But
- 25:22when it comes to business, and if you have a business guy, then
- 25:26innovation is always going to be the forefront. You want to be number one,
- 25:30you want to have the Silicon Valley of whatever it is. And I
- 25:33think that's his you know, that's his framework. That's the way he thinks.
- 25:37Change hard for I love you, but you will eat your words.
- 25:41Okay, thank you, Rob. We'll see Jeff Wolf, says Solana etf.
- 25:47Timeline thoughts, well, right now, it's March twenty twenty five,
- 25:49was the date. So if we get something earlier than that, all bets
- 25:53are off. I look to November and we could see a lot of action,
- 25:57definitely. De Godfather says, so, so that's why they're dumping all
- 26:02before the launch of the ETFs. So it could be. You know,
- 26:04there's there is some theory on that of why we're seeing some of the dump
- 26:08is they're repositioning against something else that's happening meeting. Guess what, there's an
- 26:12ETHTF looming here. For sure, the age of utility coins is coming.
- 26:18I might agree with that Web Republic because we've talked about this before of seeing
- 26:22some potentials there around. You know, more and more things we're going to
- 26:26see going on blockchain for sure. You know, utilities could be a big
- 26:30one. What we got here. Lovely Dream says, Wow, fifty to
- 26:33fifty split on today's survey. Yeah, I know, right for a fifty
- 26:37to fifty what is it still holding a fifty to fifty guys, let's see
- 26:41fifty nine? Yeah? Wow, huh, Well there you go. Big
- 26:45surprise will be the greyscale cuts its feet of thirty basis points instead of keeping
- 26:51the high fee. That would be a big surprise. New CEO incoming,
- 26:55you know, that could be it. But remember that it's difficult to change
- 26:59your ways. You've had the whole apple pie, you know, and I
- 27:03think that's grayscale. They've had access to such revenue and profits that it's tough
- 27:08to change your rates if you still have a marketplace for that, because you
- 27:12know, sometimes it's all about you know, not quantity, but the quality
- 27:17of that investor. So a lot of that playing out. If you guys
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- 27:52Baron. I'll catch you next time right here on Techpath four