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MONDAY BEST BETS | College Basketball Conference Tournaments & NHL & NBA | 3/2/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN
0:06
Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
0:08
Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
0:12
Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
0:15
Speaker 1: even know what to tell you above that I just
0:18
Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
0:21
Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two straight losses,
0:26
Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Own four that have
0:30
Speaker 1: not had a good season. Man with bookends the slump
0:35
Speaker 1: that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've reached a
0:38
Speaker 1: new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my Bruins hack Man,
0:43
Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
0:45
Speaker 1: arch epe is that what it is? I don't even
0:47
Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
0:51
Speaker 1: I don't know what day is anymore. But I don't
0:54
Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
0:56
Speaker 1: after the worst stay that I could possibly have with you,
1:00
Speaker 1: as I always am until I die at least oh
1:04
Speaker 1: and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not go well for me.
1:08
Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
1:12
Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
1:14
Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. Slump yesterdays, the slump discontinus,
1:19
Speaker 1: the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't
1:24
Speaker 1: even know what I should do at this point, other
1:26
Speaker 1: than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's towed
1:35
Speaker 1: back with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Monday, March second.
1:40
Speaker 1: Thanks to everybody whohung out for the first of probably
1:43
Speaker 1: a few conference tournament breakdown videos. It was the earliest
1:49
Speaker 1: of all the conference tournaments that I talked about. I
1:51
Speaker 1: talked about a bunch of them, so we've talked probably
1:54
Speaker 1: about a third of them already and in that video
1:57
Speaker 1: last night. So uh yeah, just giving some future ideas there.
2:02
Speaker 1: Two and three on the show yesterday. I'm not happy
2:04
Speaker 1: about that. Did find a three in Indiana out there.
2:07
Speaker 1: Didn't even matter. They lost. It wasn't close. That was bad.
2:12
Speaker 1: Illinois State did get there with the win. It was
2:14
Speaker 1: a close game, but they won at the end. I
2:16
Speaker 1: watched the end of that game. It was a it
2:19
Speaker 1: was a fun finish to the game. But we got
2:21
Speaker 1: the win with that against the Belmont team. It didn't
2:24
Speaker 1: need it Winnipeg blew it. Good start to the game.
2:28
Speaker 1: They were up one nothing and then never scored again.
2:31
Speaker 1: Hella book was good. Uh, they just could not get
2:34
Speaker 1: it done. It was a close game and they lost
2:36
Speaker 1: in overtime. I'm sick of these overtime losses in hockey.
2:41
Speaker 1: We should just bet the team to win in regulations
2:44
Speaker 1: that it pushes. Yeah, the Brooklyn Nets, they did cover. Uh,
2:50
Speaker 1: so we got that one right. And then the Orlando
2:53
Speaker 1: Magic absolutely blew it. Dude. It was the Orlando Tragic
2:58
Speaker 1: as they had a horrific second half in that game.
3:01
Speaker 1: I think they might have been winning outright at halftime
3:03
Speaker 1: or something. They were in that game. Yeah, I'm pretty
3:05
Speaker 1: sure they were winning by possibly even double digits in
3:08
Speaker 1: that game into the third period, third perio, third quarter.
3:12
Speaker 1: I don't know how they didn't even cover in that game.
3:15
Speaker 1: It was one of the worst second halfs that you'll
3:17
Speaker 1: ever see. So thank you to the Orlando Magic for
3:20
Speaker 1: that first half. Play would have won. Pisses me off.
3:25
Speaker 1: It was a sandwich spot, so I thought it made sense.
3:28
Speaker 1: Move on to today, I'm gonna give out one college
3:31
Speaker 1: basketball play. I'll give out a couple of opinions in
3:34
Speaker 1: college basketball. I'm gonna have an NBA play even though
3:39
Speaker 1: it's kind of concerning, but I'm gonna do it anyway.
3:43
Speaker 1: And the market is completely disagreeing with my college basketball place.
3:46
Speaker 1: It wasn't that awesome. If you want me to talk
3:48
Speaker 1: about some of these other games, I will. This is
3:50
Speaker 1: gonna be a quick show. I think today I gotta
3:52
Speaker 1: get out of here fairly shortly as well. Probably we'll
3:55
Speaker 1: have some TV games to talk about here where we
3:57
Speaker 1: have one conference tournament game. Maybe I'll talk about it
4:00
Speaker 1: at the very end. And yeah, it's a lot of
4:04
Speaker 1: MEAC Southland Conference today. There are two really big games today.
4:08
Speaker 1: There's a little bit of big Sky action as well.
4:11
Speaker 1: I'll talk about a few of the games, but I'm
4:14
Speaker 1: gonna make it quick. Best bets happening right now, man,
4:18
Speaker 1: for a first game we're going to talk about the
4:26
Speaker 1: market's not agree with me on this. We're gonna take
4:28
Speaker 1: NC State plus the ten. It's mostly nine and a
4:32
Speaker 1: half out there right now. This is a fade of
4:34
Speaker 1: Duke number one Duke at seven pm on ESPN. First
4:39
Speaker 1: of all, I think NC State the game just matters
4:42
Speaker 1: more to them, and you're getting them as a huge
4:44
Speaker 1: home underdog here and in a spot where I think
4:47
Speaker 1: you're gonna get that effort from a huge underdog, you know,
4:49
Speaker 1: I like to look that way. NC State is falling
4:53
Speaker 1: towards the bubble of the tournament right now. This would
4:55
Speaker 1: be a massive win if they could get it. Plus,
4:57
Speaker 1: they consider themselves to be the little brother in state
5:00
Speaker 1: of North Carolina, and Duke did already lose to their
5:04
Speaker 1: other on North Carolina rival on the road, so there
5:07
Speaker 1: is precedent for them losing to a North Carolina rival.
5:12
Speaker 1: I haven't brought up ken Bomb. Hang on, let me
5:14
Speaker 1: do it. Duke is indeed the number one team in
5:17
Speaker 1: the country according to ken Bomb. They're pretty lucky, though
5:19
Speaker 1: in the top one hundred. They play slow. He's got
5:23
Speaker 1: in c State actually worse than North Carolina now slightly
5:27
Speaker 1: outside of the top thirty, but pretty balanced, way less lucky.
5:33
Speaker 1: So he is telling you the've underperformed a bit, whereas
5:35
Speaker 1: Duke is overperformed a bit. NC State's kind of in
5:38
Speaker 1: the bottom, close to the bottom one hundred in luck
5:42
Speaker 1: and they play fast where his Duke plays slow. So
5:44
Speaker 1: if Ency State is somehow able to speed this game up,
5:49
Speaker 1: they might be able to throw Duke out of the
5:50
Speaker 1: style that they want. But even if Duke slows the
5:53
Speaker 1: game down, you're asking a slow based team to win
5:56
Speaker 1: by double digits on the road. And I know I've
5:59
Speaker 1: faded due spots like this with some success and with
6:02
Speaker 1: some failure. But we're gonna do it here. The success
6:06
Speaker 1: was with pitt and the failure was with Notre Dame.
6:09
Speaker 1: NC State, by the way, is better than both those teams,
6:11
Speaker 1: although they're not getting as many points, but the spot
6:14
Speaker 1: for Duke is horrible. Dude, Duke basically just sealed the
6:18
Speaker 1: acc pretty much, although it's not completely over yet, but
6:22
Speaker 1: they gave themselves a two game padding over Virginia by
6:25
Speaker 1: beating Virginia, who is the next closest team to them,
6:29
Speaker 1: And you know a lot of people were talking about
6:30
Speaker 1: how that was gonna be a test for Duke, a
6:33
Speaker 1: close game whatever. They slaughtered Virginia. Now they go on
6:37
Speaker 1: the road and they play NC State and they finish
6:39
Speaker 1: the season with North Carolina, who beat them and that
6:44
Speaker 1: was their last loss and their only loss in conference play,
6:47
Speaker 1: and it's their huge rival. Yeah, you think they're gonna
6:50
Speaker 1: have their eye looking ahead to that North Carolina game
6:53
Speaker 1: in revenge because I think they will. That's a massive,
6:56
Speaker 1: massive game. So yeah, this is a sandwich spot. NC
7:00
Speaker 1: State probably in need of a bit of something here.
7:04
Speaker 1: They've lost four of the last five games. And by
7:07
Speaker 1: the way, these teams just played a common opponent. Well,
7:11
Speaker 1: Duke did the game before Virginia. Duke wiped the floor
7:14
Speaker 1: with Notre Dame on the road. So people are gonna
7:17
Speaker 1: look at that and say, oh my god, Duke beat
7:19
Speaker 1: Notre Dame by like forty points on the road, and
7:22
Speaker 1: NC State lost to Notre Dame on the road. Owned
7:26
Speaker 1: by the way, NC State lost to Virginia the game
7:29
Speaker 1: before that as well, by almost thirty points. So the
7:32
Speaker 1: same two opponents. These two teams both just played the
7:34
Speaker 1: same two opponents. NC State lost to both of them,
7:38
Speaker 1: and Duke easily handled both of them. So what do
7:42
Speaker 1: you think the public is gonna do? That's why I
7:45
Speaker 1: don't think these numbers are accurate at all. Sixty five
7:48
Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on NC State, ninety three percent
7:50
Speaker 1: of the cash on Duke. There's no way, there is
7:53
Speaker 1: no way that the majority of tickets are gonna be
7:55
Speaker 1: on NC State in this game. Absolutely not. We're gonna
7:59
Speaker 1: play NC State here. It looks pretty easy to play Duke.
8:02
Speaker 1: To be honest, in this game, nobody's gonna want to
8:04
Speaker 1: play n C State here. But they're back at home.
8:08
Speaker 1: The last time they were at home, they absolutely destroyed UNC.
8:13
Speaker 1: They've been better at home. I mean, if you look
8:15
Speaker 1: at their home streak here, they had a one point
8:17
Speaker 1: loss at home to Miami, which I believe they lost
8:20
Speaker 1: is a favorite. But that's a tough game, tough opponent.
8:23
Speaker 1: It was a competitive game. You know, they beat Virginia
8:26
Speaker 1: Tech here. They beat Syracuse by a lot, and they
8:30
Speaker 1: did lose to Virginia That that's you know, Virginia's good.
8:33
Speaker 1: And they lost to Georgia Tech, which is a really
8:36
Speaker 1: bad loss. But NC State has been better at home.
8:39
Speaker 1: I don't think I need to be labor this anymore.
8:41
Speaker 1: We're gonna take n C State plus the points. Tyson,
8:45
Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Ken Bum's numbers are
8:51
Speaker 1: not a scam. Your eyes are a scam. Ohio State's
8:54
Speaker 1: not that good. Louisville had a horrible shooting game. Louisville
8:59
Speaker 1: shot like thirty some percent from the field in that game. Uh,
9:02
Speaker 1: they're a massive variance team. Them beating Duke was a
9:08
Speaker 1: complete Fluke They're gonna get absolutely demolished by Duke in
9:12
Speaker 1: the season finale. I'm gonna recommend laying the points with
9:16
Speaker 1: Duke in the season finale. Duke's gonna beat them by
9:18
Speaker 1: probably at least twenty in the finale. Yeah, I'm not
9:25
Speaker 1: buying it at all. North Carolina is gonna be a
9:27
Speaker 1: prime candidate to lose in the first round of the
9:30
Speaker 1: NCAA Tournament. No, ken bum dude, he's not doing it
9:38
Speaker 1: like his analytics are doing it like he doesn't have
9:42
Speaker 1: any bias in that at all. That's what the numbers say.
9:45
Speaker 1: And do you think the numbers are wrong? The numbers
9:47
Speaker 1: are telling you that the top teams in the country
9:50
Speaker 1: are Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Houston, Iowa State. Are
9:54
Speaker 1: you really gonna you're gonna disagree with that? No? North
9:58
Speaker 1: Carolina is not as as good as people think they are.
10:01
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. They're the thirty first best offense, the fortieth
10:04
Speaker 1: best defense, and yet he somehow has them twenty eighth overall.
10:08
Speaker 1: I don't even know how he has them twenty eighth
10:10
Speaker 1: when they don't crack the top thirty in offense or defense. No,
10:15
Speaker 1: they're a massively overrated team. They're one of the most
10:17
Speaker 1: overrated teams. The most overrated team is Miami Ohio. I'm
10:22
Speaker 1: telling you right now, if you want opportunities in the
10:24
Speaker 1: tournament playing, you know, betting, doing stuff in your bracket,
10:29
Speaker 1: Bounce North Carolina, Bounce Miami Ohio. That's what we're gonna do.
10:34
Speaker 1: That's what I'm gonna do in my bracket. Yeah. Well,
10:38
Speaker 1: Virginia sucks. Virginia. Every time they've stepped up in class
10:42
Speaker 1: to play a team, they've lost the game. So I
10:44
Speaker 1: don't understand, like, yeah, they've dude, They've had one of
10:49
Speaker 1: the easiest schedules Virginia. They also play really slow, so
10:53
Speaker 1: they're very susceptible to losing because they're in way too
10:56
Speaker 1: many close games. But Virginia is not as good as
10:59
Speaker 1: people think that they are. Ken Bum's got them seventeenth again.
11:04
Speaker 1: They face a really weak schedule too, although Kenbom has
11:07
Speaker 1: them seventy second, but that's still the weakest schedule out
11:10
Speaker 1: of all of the teams ahead of them in ken
11:13
Speaker 1: BOM's rankings except for Gonzaga, So that's still not a
11:17
Speaker 1: good sign. All Right, I'm gonna skip the Horizon Tournament.
11:22
Speaker 1: Game for now CBS Sports at seven point thirty has
11:26
Speaker 1: MacNeice and Nichols in the Southland Conference. They're finishing up
11:30
Speaker 1: the regular season. MacNeice just had a scare against New
11:34
Speaker 1: Orleans Man. That was a bad game for MacNeice. They
11:37
Speaker 1: were big favorites in that one and they almost lost
11:39
Speaker 1: the game. So, you know, I talk about that when
11:41
Speaker 1: a team almost loses the game as a huge favor
11:44
Speaker 1: a lot of times they will bounce back with a
11:47
Speaker 1: better effort. Although MacNeice did already crush Nichols at home
11:51
Speaker 1: by whatever, that was twenty six points or something. Nichols
11:55
Speaker 1: this is their final home game though, so they're gonna
11:57
Speaker 1: step up for it against one of the best teams
11:59
Speaker 1: in the com for it's and they're at home, and
12:02
Speaker 1: it's on TV. You know, so final home game, you're
12:06
Speaker 1: usually gonna get an effort out of that team. They're
12:09
Speaker 1: on TV, which they usually don't get to do. So
12:11
Speaker 1: it is a big deal for Nickels. So do I
12:14
Speaker 1: want MacNeice in this game? No? I do not. They're
12:19
Speaker 1: down from eleven and a half point favorite to an
12:21
Speaker 1: eleven point favorite. MacNeice does kind of get themselves in
12:25
Speaker 1: a lot of lower scoring games too. They're known for
12:28
Speaker 1: forcing their opponents into extremely long possession lengths, so laying
12:33
Speaker 1: points with them on the road like this in a
12:34
Speaker 1: spot like this not really something I would be interested
12:37
Speaker 1: in it at all, even though the one positive they
12:40
Speaker 1: have is they didn't look good in their last game,
12:42
Speaker 1: but I'd probably still need to taking the points in
12:44
Speaker 1: that game. But I don't want anything to do with it.
12:47
Speaker 1: Selthy's Louisiana at New Orleans is a very interesting scenario.
12:52
Speaker 1: And you know what, hmm, this one is close to
12:56
Speaker 1: being a play for me. It's just that ken bum
12:59
Speaker 1: has New New Orleans has the number on this at
13:01
Speaker 1: like ten, and the number in actuality is at seven
13:06
Speaker 1: and a half. So I don't know if they're injuries
13:07
Speaker 1: or what. It's a low total here, but this spot
13:11
Speaker 1: to me screams south East Louisiana. I almost want to
13:14
Speaker 1: put it on my card for multiple reasons. One is,
13:18
Speaker 1: Southeast Louisiana is eliminated from the Southland Conference tournament. They're
13:23
Speaker 1: in last place. They can't get out of last place
13:26
Speaker 1: based on the tiebreakers or whatever, so this is their
13:28
Speaker 1: last game. They're not playing again after this. New Orleans,
13:33
Speaker 1: I believe already beat them as well. Let me see
13:35
Speaker 1: where's that? Yeah, New Orleans already beat them at Southeast
13:39
Speaker 1: Louisiana by three, So there's a revenge mode of here
13:43
Speaker 1: for Southeast Louisiana, and New Orleans is coming off almost
13:47
Speaker 1: beating MacNeice, which is a massive performance from them, Like
13:51
Speaker 1: how did they get back up off the mat after that?
13:52
Speaker 1: The only thing is it is their final home game,
13:55
Speaker 1: so they might get up for that reason, But I
13:57
Speaker 1: think that was really their super Bowl, though they went
14:00
Speaker 1: all out against MacNeice and fell short. Now New Orleans
14:03
Speaker 1: is a team that they don't have to worry about
14:06
Speaker 1: whether or not they're gonna make the conference tournament, although
14:09
Speaker 1: they do have a chance to get one of the
14:11
Speaker 1: top four seeds in the tournament, but I don't know
14:14
Speaker 1: how much that really matters to them. Plus, they might
14:18
Speaker 1: presume that Nichols is gonna lose to MacNeice, and if
14:21
Speaker 1: that's the case, then I think they're gonna get one
14:23
Speaker 1: of the at least one of the top five seeds
14:25
Speaker 1: if that happens. But yeah, this is one where yeah
14:30
Speaker 1: Soulthea's Louisiana makes a lot of sense in this one.
14:34
Speaker 1: Where's the number the number one up from seven to
14:37
Speaker 1: seven and a half year. It's just the ken bum
14:41
Speaker 1: has this number so far off from that. He's got
14:46
Speaker 1: Southeast and Louisiana pretty unlucky though they're in like the
14:49
Speaker 1: bottom one hundred of luck. They play slow, they're at
14:52
Speaker 1: least capable defensively. They're actually the better defense, believe it
14:57
Speaker 1: or not. New Orleans is the much better offense. New
14:59
Speaker 1: Orleans tries to fast, which maybe they'll do because they're
15:02
Speaker 1: at home, and that wouldn't be good for Southeast Louisiana.
15:06
Speaker 1: New Orleans is very lucky though sixty third in the
15:09
Speaker 1: country in luck. I kind of want to do it, man,
15:13
Speaker 1: I mean, this spot makes a lot of sense to
15:15
Speaker 1: take Southeastern Louisiana very very tempting to do it, and
15:21
Speaker 1: we might get a better number on this if we
15:22
Speaker 1: let the number go higher. This is like one rare
15:25
Speaker 1: scenario where I would actually fade a home team in
15:28
Speaker 1: their in their home finale, and I guess, well, the
15:31
Speaker 1: other thing is like, yeah, it's your final home game,
15:34
Speaker 1: you know, Like how many people are really are really
15:37
Speaker 1: gonna show up for that when it's New Orleans against
15:39
Speaker 1: Southeastern Louisiana, Like, are they gonna draw a huge crowd
15:44
Speaker 1: for that, I'm guessing probably not. Southeast Louisiana probably actually
15:49
Speaker 1: considers itself to be a little brother in the state
15:52
Speaker 1: of Louisiana as well. Let me see, I kind of
15:57
Speaker 1: want to do it, man, Like, everything lines up for
15:59
Speaker 1: this except for the number. And I know the numbers.
16:02
Speaker 1: The number is one of the most important things I know.
16:05
Speaker 1: But the oddsmakers are just throwing up a bad number intentionally,
16:10
Speaker 1: especially when they know that New Orleans is probably gonna
16:15
Speaker 1: be somewhat of a public side here, although probably the
16:17
Speaker 1: public isn't gonna get that involved. But yeah, we have
16:19
Speaker 1: a revenge mode of here. It is. Yeah, let's let's
16:23
Speaker 1: do it. Fuck it, We're gonna go. Southeast Louisiana plus
16:31
Speaker 1: seven and a half is what it is right now.
16:33
Speaker 1: Might be able to get a better number on that though,
16:35
Speaker 1: but yeah, we're gonna do it. I have no shame. Baby.
16:40
Speaker 1: Hopefully they can ugly this thing up and slow the
16:43
Speaker 1: game down. It is at least easier for the lesser
16:45
Speaker 1: team to slow the game down, and it's not a
16:48
Speaker 1: high total. Now. The other thing I should mention in
16:51
Speaker 1: this conference is two other teams are gonna get eliminated
16:55
Speaker 1: from the Southland Conference or maybe three will, So that's
16:59
Speaker 1: something to really can an eye on today with Lamar
17:01
Speaker 1: Incarnate Word, Houston, Christian East, Texas A, and M, they're
17:05
Speaker 1: all trying to avoid getting knocked out of the conference
17:08
Speaker 1: tournament because three of I think at least two of
17:12
Speaker 1: those teams are not making the conference tournament after today,
17:15
Speaker 1: and I think they're all playing today, So that is
17:17
Speaker 1: something to keep in mind as well. I'm not really
17:19
Speaker 1: gonna go into detail with those games because I don't
17:21
Speaker 1: really find a whole lot going on in those games
17:24
Speaker 1: as far as handicapping them, but that is something to
17:27
Speaker 1: be aware of that those teams might have more motivation
17:30
Speaker 1: than you know, teams that are in the middle of
17:32
Speaker 1: the conference or even teams that are at the top
17:34
Speaker 1: of the conference, you know, especially like Real Grande Valley
17:39
Speaker 1: A and mc Real Grande Valleys almost locked into the
17:42
Speaker 1: three at this point, you know, so, but yet Lamar
17:46
Speaker 1: Incarnate Word, Houston, Christian East Texas A, and M are
17:48
Speaker 1: all are all fighting for their lives to make the
17:51
Speaker 1: conference tournament in that conference right now because they don't
17:55
Speaker 1: all make it all right, And then Montana Northern Colorad
18:00
Speaker 1: is probably the best Big Sky game tonight. Montana is
18:04
Speaker 1: in fourth place right now. Northern Colorado's in sixth, but
18:07
Speaker 1: they're a legit team man. As I said, we haven't
18:10
Speaker 1: talked about this conference tournament yet because the bracket is
18:13
Speaker 1: not set up yet, but Northern Colorado is gonna be
18:15
Speaker 1: a real interesting one. They're gonna be one of the
18:18
Speaker 1: lower seeds, but they have a really good chance to
18:20
Speaker 1: make a run. Montana just had a huge win over
18:23
Speaker 1: Portland State in their final home game. That's the top
18:26
Speaker 1: team in the conference, so they could be in a
18:28
Speaker 1: letdown spot here, and they already beat Northern Colorado by
18:32
Speaker 1: nine early in conference play at home. This is gonna
18:36
Speaker 1: be Northern Colorado's final home game. They just beat Idaho,
18:40
Speaker 1: which is you know, nobody really cares about that. Last
18:43
Speaker 1: time they were at home, they barely beat Northern Arizona,
18:46
Speaker 1: but you can kind of see why because they were
18:48
Speaker 1: coming off a win over Portland State themselves, So I
18:50
Speaker 1: think they were kind of in a letdown spot there.
18:53
Speaker 1: And people are gonna look at this and see Northern
18:55
Speaker 1: Colorado laying six and a half and probably think that's
18:58
Speaker 1: pretty big, because why would a team it's below the
19:00
Speaker 1: other team in the conference standings be laying points like that,
19:04
Speaker 1: although they do have the better overall record. But the
19:06
Speaker 1: oudsbakers are telling you Northern Colorado is actually the better
19:09
Speaker 1: team here, and I would lean that way as well.
19:13
Speaker 1: They're minus six right now, but I would lay it
19:15
Speaker 1: with Northern Colorado in that game if I was gonna
19:18
Speaker 1: play it. ESPN and the doubleheader at nine PM. Number
19:22
Speaker 1: four Iowa State, Number two, Arizona. This is a good game, man,
19:26
Speaker 1: This game is I considered putting this game on my card.
19:30
Speaker 1: Iowa States coming up a pretty bad loss. Shocking loss
19:34
Speaker 1: actually to Texas Tech. Texas Tech with no JT toppin
19:38
Speaker 1: maybe and maybe that's not a problem. I mean, I
19:41
Speaker 1: think Texas Tech was probably hitting a lot of threes
19:43
Speaker 1: in that game though, so there is some variants there.
19:46
Speaker 1: But Iowa State just lost at home as a huge favorite.
19:49
Speaker 1: And you know what I always say when a team
19:51
Speaker 1: loses is a big favorite at home, a lot of
19:54
Speaker 1: times you'll get a much better effort out of them
19:56
Speaker 1: in the next game. It's not gonna be easy going
19:58
Speaker 1: to Arizona for Arizona his final home game, and this
20:03
Speaker 1: is gonna be a game where the crowd is gonna
20:05
Speaker 1: be crazy because you know it's the final home game
20:08
Speaker 1: and they're the number two team in the country according
20:10
Speaker 1: to the rankings, so you know the crowd is gonna
20:12
Speaker 1: show up for this. But Arizona's coming off of a
20:14
Speaker 1: huge win over Kansas. I gave you guys that on Saturday.
20:19
Speaker 1: They wound up winning by thirteen, so I'm or no
20:22
Speaker 1: what they want up winning by twenty three? What I
20:24
Speaker 1: thought it was like seventeen twenty three. That's crazy. I
20:27
Speaker 1: can't even do math anymore. Anyway, that was a huge
20:30
Speaker 1: win because Kansas was the team that ended Arizona's undefeated season,
20:35
Speaker 1: so that was a monster win for Arizona. And by
20:37
Speaker 1: the way, Texas Tech they have wins over Duke, Arizona
20:42
Speaker 1: and Iowa State. That is crazy that Texas Tech has
20:45
Speaker 1: been absolute giant killers. Man, and dude, I'm sick of
20:50
Speaker 1: the like all the people that do the brackets, like, oh,
20:52
Speaker 1: I'm gonna drop Texas Tech to like a five seed
20:55
Speaker 1: just because JT. Tobin is out. And now they go
20:58
Speaker 1: on the road and they beat i Was State and
21:00
Speaker 1: they're making a case to be like a three seed.
21:03
Speaker 1: Oh my god, Texas AC will be a pretty high
21:07
Speaker 1: variant team though Arizona though that was a huge win.
21:11
Speaker 1: But they're not gonna, you know, they're not gonna come
21:14
Speaker 1: in and you know, have a bad effort in a
21:16
Speaker 1: game against Iowa State at home, though, you know what
21:18
Speaker 1: I mean. So I like Iowa State in this game
21:21
Speaker 1: in the bounce back spot in Arizona. I worry that
21:24
Speaker 1: they're playing two monster games in a row at home,
21:27
Speaker 1: and beating the team that ended your undefeated season is
21:29
Speaker 1: a monster win. So I would lean towards taking the
21:32
Speaker 1: points of Iowa State here, But this one's not on
21:35
Speaker 1: my card, and the money looks like it's not agreeing
21:37
Speaker 1: with me, although it's not agreeing with me on the
21:39
Speaker 1: Duke game either, which that one shocks me. And I
21:41
Speaker 1: think we'll see that market turnaround the market on this game.
21:45
Speaker 1: I don't know which way it's gonna go, to be honest,
21:47
Speaker 1: Arizona is a seven and a half point favorite, sixty
21:50
Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets around Iowa State, sixty eight percent
21:53
Speaker 1: of the cash on Arizona. Do with that information what
21:57
Speaker 1: you want, I do lean to Iowa State. And then
21:59
Speaker 1: there's a bit of an interesting scenario with Idaho in
22:02
Speaker 1: the Big Sky. They're the only team that cannot change
22:06
Speaker 1: their seeding. I believe today in the Big Sky they're
22:11
Speaker 1: locked into the seven seed in the Big Sky Tournament,
22:15
Speaker 1: which kind of makes sense because the three teams below
22:18
Speaker 1: them are all significantly below them. But they cannot get
22:22
Speaker 1: past Northern Colorado. I guess they don't have the tiebreaker, yes,
22:26
Speaker 1: because they lost to them twice, including in their most
22:29
Speaker 1: recent games. So Idaho doesn't really have a whole lot
22:33
Speaker 1: to play for here. They're playing Eastern Washington. They actually
22:37
Speaker 1: already beat Eastern Washington at home by three. It's Eastern
22:40
Speaker 1: Washington's final home game. Eastern Washington is a lot better
22:44
Speaker 1: than their overall record looks. They've actually pulled into their
22:48
Speaker 1: one game away from first place in the Big Sky.
22:50
Speaker 1: Believe it or not, Eastern Washington is the hottest team
22:53
Speaker 1: in this conference. Man. They've won whatever this is, eight
22:56
Speaker 1: games in a row. They're on fire right now. I
23:00
Speaker 1: would not want to step in front of that train.
23:01
Speaker 1: They're at home for their final home game in revenge
23:04
Speaker 1: against an Idaho team that cannot advance or drop based
23:08
Speaker 1: on winning this game, so Idaho pretty much doesn't have
23:11
Speaker 1: anything to play for here. I might be looking ahead
23:14
Speaker 1: to the conference tournament already, Eastern Washington could potentially get
23:19
Speaker 1: the one seed, I think, which is insane to think about.
23:23
Speaker 1: I think they could definitely at least get the two
23:26
Speaker 1: depending on what Montana State does. So there is motivation
23:29
Speaker 1: here for Eastern Washington for multiple reasons. So I do
23:32
Speaker 1: like Eastern Washington in this game. People might look at
23:36
Speaker 1: it and see the overall records and be like, why
23:38
Speaker 1: would I want to lay points with Eastern Washington here,
23:40
Speaker 1: although they have the better Big Sky record, But like
23:44
Speaker 1: that alone should tell you, well, Eastern Washington must have
23:46
Speaker 1: had a really difficult out of conference schedule and they've
23:50
Speaker 1: been better in the Big Sky for it, and that
23:52
Speaker 1: is true, So they're gonna be an interesting team in
23:56
Speaker 1: that tournament as well. They'rew up to a three point favorite,
23:59
Speaker 1: seventy six percent under the cash on them, fifty to
24:01
Speaker 1: fifty on the tickets, So the market looks like it
24:04
Speaker 1: agrees with me on that one. Not on my card,
24:07
Speaker 1: but I would only play Eastern Washington in that game,
24:09
Speaker 1: and I think I just made a pretty strong case
24:12
Speaker 1: for it. All right, let's go to the NHL. Oh no, wait,
24:17
Speaker 1: I forgot the conference tournament. Oh my god, March Madness
24:21
Speaker 1: officially starts man in my opinion, with the conference tournaments,
24:25
Speaker 1: and we have the first conference tournament game tonight, the
24:28
Speaker 1: eleven versus ten seed matchup in the Horizon League. Whoever
24:32
Speaker 1: wins this game will have to play Right State, who
24:35
Speaker 1: is the one seed, and it is I you ind
24:39
Speaker 1: at Cleveland State. The game is gonna be at Cleveland State.
24:44
Speaker 1: Cleveland State they are the better team, but I think
24:47
Speaker 1: Cleveland State's a bit fraudulent, Like they've made that one
24:51
Speaker 1: run in the middle of the season where they won
24:53
Speaker 1: five games in a row, and they actually did beat
24:56
Speaker 1: Right State and Oakland, who are two of the best
24:58
Speaker 1: teams in the conference. But I just don't know if
25:00
Speaker 1: I buy it because they haven't won since then, although
25:03
Speaker 1: you'll see IU Indy is on a really really bad
25:05
Speaker 1: run as well. Uh. These teams played each other twice already,
25:10
Speaker 1: I believe, and they split the season series, with Cleveland
25:13
Speaker 1: State winning the first game at home, which is where
25:17
Speaker 1: they are tonight, and they lost the second game by
25:20
Speaker 1: eight on the road. If you dig into the box
25:22
Speaker 1: scores though, which I did, Cleveland State was actually like
25:27
Speaker 1: definitively the better team in the first game and then
25:29
Speaker 1: in the second game. It was actually close statistically, so
25:33
Speaker 1: that is interesting that it kind of does seem like
25:35
Speaker 1: Cleveland State might be the better team, but the oddsmakers
25:39
Speaker 1: are not telling you that Cleveland State's dropped from two
25:41
Speaker 1: to one and a half year. The oddsmakers believe it
25:43
Speaker 1: or not telling you iupuy is the better team. And
25:47
Speaker 1: I know I've been bashing Cleveland State most of the
25:49
Speaker 1: year because they are bad. Ken Bom does actually have
25:53
Speaker 1: them eight ranking spots lower than I you Indie, and
25:57
Speaker 1: they're the luckier team at one oh six in luck
26:00
Speaker 1: Indy is at two to eighty first in lock. Uh.
26:03
Speaker 1: Both teams are absolutely horrible defensively. They're both in the
26:07
Speaker 1: bottom twenty in the country defensively. Cleveland State is the
26:10
Speaker 1: third worst team defensively, and both teams play fast. IU Indy,
26:15
Speaker 1: we know, plays at an absolute absurd pace, fourth in
26:19
Speaker 1: the country. Cleveland State is seventy fifth. So you know
26:23
Speaker 1: what that basically equates to you, right, So I'm not
26:26
Speaker 1: gonna disagree with IU Indy in this one, although I
26:28
Speaker 1: wouldn't trust them at all really based on their previous matchups,
26:32
Speaker 1: it would not shock me if either whichever team wins
26:35
Speaker 1: this game is not gonna shock me. But what I
26:37
Speaker 1: do think is the way to look at the way
26:39
Speaker 1: to look at this game, I do think is the over.
26:42
Speaker 1: But the total drop from one seventy four and a
26:44
Speaker 1: half to one sixty nine. Uh, so you're getting a
26:47
Speaker 1: better number on this. But like, like, what do you
26:49
Speaker 1: think you should do when you have a game where
26:51
Speaker 1: two teams can't play defense at all and they both
26:54
Speaker 1: play really fast? Like, yeah, to me, that seems like
26:57
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a lot of it's gonna equate to
26:59
Speaker 1: a lot of points. Here. My concern would be that
27:02
Speaker 1: it is a tournament game, and in tournament games like this,
27:05
Speaker 1: you know, sometimes you will see the teams not want
27:08
Speaker 1: to take quite as many risks. You will see the
27:10
Speaker 1: teams maybe focus a bit more on deepfense because it
27:13
Speaker 1: kind of becomes, you know, that type of thing like
27:16
Speaker 1: a playoff atmosphere does lend itself to more intense defense.
27:19
Speaker 1: That would be my one real concern with this. But
27:22
Speaker 1: I think the best way to play this game is
27:24
Speaker 1: the over, to be honest, Like, to me, it just
27:26
Speaker 1: seems like it's gonna be a game that's gonna get
27:29
Speaker 1: over that total. So that's how I look at that game.
27:32
Speaker 1: If we look at the other games in the series
27:34
Speaker 1: as far as the total, the first game got up
27:37
Speaker 1: to one hundred and eighty five. The one at Cleveland
27:41
Speaker 1: State hit one hundred and eighty five, and the total
27:44
Speaker 1: in that game was one seventy two and a half
27:46
Speaker 1: and it went way over. And now we're looking at
27:48
Speaker 1: one sixty nine here in the same venue. And then
27:51
Speaker 1: at IU Indy. Surprisingly the game wasn't as high scoring
27:55
Speaker 1: in that one. The game landed at what is that
28:00
Speaker 1: is that one fifty six? Like that seems crazy low,
28:06
Speaker 1: especially given that IU Indy is the even faster team.
28:09
Speaker 1: It's really shocking that this game landed in the one fifties.
28:12
Speaker 1: And the total in this one was actually lower at
28:14
Speaker 1: one sixty nine and a half, which that surprises me
28:16
Speaker 1: as well because IU Indie is even faster, so I
28:19
Speaker 1: would have expected the total to be higher. It's kind
28:23
Speaker 1: of crazy that the total in that game went under,
28:26
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean over would be the way I
28:28
Speaker 1: would look at that game. Man, All right, let's go
28:32
Speaker 1: to NHL. Here we have six games. I think we
28:37
Speaker 1: have a pretty short NHL card and NBA card or board.
28:41
Speaker 1: I have one NBA game that I don't really love.
28:44
Speaker 1: NHL Network has a double header. There is one afternoon
28:47
Speaker 1: game at two pm Eastern between Detroit and Nashville. Detroit's
28:51
Speaker 1: coming off kind of a blowout loss to Carolina. They
28:54
Speaker 1: are continuing a road trip here, but they did have
28:58
Speaker 1: yesterday off another to Nashville. They might be looking to
29:01
Speaker 1: bounce back here. They do a Vegas on deck, But
29:04
Speaker 1: after you lose five to two, I think you're probably
29:06
Speaker 1: gonna show up with effort. For Nashville, they just had
29:09
Speaker 1: a much tougher game. Actually, they went to overtime against Dallas,
29:13
Speaker 1: so they're gonna have to put in a huge effort
29:15
Speaker 1: multiple games in a row, and they're traveling back from Dallas.
29:18
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna overlook Detroit because Detroit's been good,
29:22
Speaker 1: but that was a huge game where they almost pulled
29:24
Speaker 1: off the upset against Dallas. So I don't know what
29:27
Speaker 1: National is gonna have left in the tank after that.
29:30
Speaker 1: I would probably lean to Detroit here, but the money
29:32
Speaker 1: is not agreeing with me. They're up to minus one
29:34
Speaker 1: to twelve as a road favorite here. Ninety three percent
29:37
Speaker 1: of the tickets and seventy seven percent of the cash
29:39
Speaker 1: on them but yeah, I would probably lean to Detroit myself.
29:45
Speaker 1: And the second game of the NHL Network doubleheader later
29:48
Speaker 1: at seven PM is Columbus at the New York Rangers.
29:52
Speaker 1: Columbus did just lose again to the Islanders, unfortunately, because
29:56
Speaker 1: that was one of my losses. They took the Islanders
29:59
Speaker 1: to overtime. That was a pretty big game, So I
30:01
Speaker 1: don't know if Columbus might be a little bit hungover
30:04
Speaker 1: coming off of that having to go to the Rangers.
30:06
Speaker 1: Although we know the Rangers are a horrific home team,
30:09
Speaker 1: but they did just get a home win. They came
30:11
Speaker 1: back from I think they were down two to nothing
30:14
Speaker 1: maybe in the game against Pittsburgh. It was at least
30:16
Speaker 1: one nothing Pittsburgh and the Rangers won the game in
30:19
Speaker 1: a shootout. But they're staying at home. That was two
30:22
Speaker 1: days ago as well. They broke a losing streak. Even
30:26
Speaker 1: though the Rangers are absolutely atrocious at home, I think
30:29
Speaker 1: the spot is better for the Rangers. That's the way
30:31
Speaker 1: I would lean in this one Columbus. Hilariously, Columbus is
30:35
Speaker 1: a road favorite. That's how bad the Rangers are at home,
30:38
Speaker 1: and just in general, Columbus down for minus one thirty
30:42
Speaker 1: minus one twenty five seventy five percent of tickets ninety
30:45
Speaker 1: one percent of the cash though on the Rangers, So
30:49
Speaker 1: the money looks like it is agreeing with me on
30:50
Speaker 1: that one. On the Rangers Philadelphia at Toronto Philadelphia just
30:55
Speaker 1: beating my boss and Bruins. Unfortunately, now they're going up
30:59
Speaker 1: to Toronto. You know, maybe not the greatest spot for them,
31:03
Speaker 1: going to play a struggling Toronto team here. Toronto hasn't
31:07
Speaker 1: won since before the Olympic break, I believe, yeah, that
31:11
Speaker 1: is correct. They've lost all three games out of the break,
31:13
Speaker 1: but two of them were in Florida against Tampa and Florida.
31:17
Speaker 1: I mean, you don't expect Toronto to win those games.
31:20
Speaker 1: And then they came back home maybe in a bit
31:22
Speaker 1: of a hangover spot. A third game in four days
31:25
Speaker 1: that's not easy. But now maybe after getting smashed at
31:28
Speaker 1: home by Ottawa, maybe this is the spot where Toronto
31:31
Speaker 1: does come with a bit more effort here. I would
31:33
Speaker 1: probably lean to Toronto in this one. Not strong on it,
31:37
Speaker 1: and the money's totally disagreeing with me, and I don't
31:39
Speaker 1: really get that either. Toronto eighty nine percent of the tickets.
31:43
Speaker 1: That makes no sense to me. I don't know what
31:45
Speaker 1: public better is gonna come in and play Toronto here,
31:48
Speaker 1: Like you know what I mean? As a favorite the
31:51
Speaker 1: team with the worst record, it doesn't make any sense.
31:53
Speaker 1: Although they are actually pretty decent at home, they're better
31:56
Speaker 1: at home than the Flyers are on the road. So
32:00
Speaker 1: the home road splits two favorite Toronto in this game
32:02
Speaker 1: as well. The cash on Philly don't. I don't buy that.
32:07
Speaker 1: I lean to Toronto in that game, but you know,
32:10
Speaker 1: not a really strong opinion for me, dirty sock. What's up?
32:14
Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out? Dallas at Vancouver. Dallas is on
32:22
Speaker 1: a run here. They've won multiple games in a row.
32:24
Speaker 1: I think they've won every game. Yeah, they've won every games.
32:26
Speaker 1: It's the Olympic break and then some. They've won eight
32:29
Speaker 1: games in a row, I think, but mostly against US
32:32
Speaker 1: some pretty weak teams. The one really good team they
32:35
Speaker 1: beat in there was Vegas. Now they're starting a road trip,
32:39
Speaker 1: but they're coming off questionable performance, let's say against Nashville.
32:45
Speaker 1: Starting a road trip with momentum usually that's a good thing. Uh.
32:49
Speaker 1: They don't have a big game until Friday when they
32:51
Speaker 1: play Colorado. So after a close call against Nashville, going
32:55
Speaker 1: out on the road. Maybe you will get an effort
32:57
Speaker 1: out of them against Vancouver here, even though Vancouver is horrible,
33:02
Speaker 1: Vancouver is probably gonna, at least I would assume, put
33:06
Speaker 1: in some effort against a good team. Uh, they've lost
33:08
Speaker 1: every game since prior to the break. They're probably the
33:12
Speaker 1: worst team in hockey. But I think they'll at least
33:14
Speaker 1: probably give you an effort in this game. But I
33:17
Speaker 1: don't know if i'd really want to fade Dallas in
33:19
Speaker 1: a spot that's not negative for them, Dallas up for
33:22
Speaker 1: minus one seventy eight to minus one eighty seven. Don't
33:25
Speaker 1: really see the percentages on this yet. Dallas will be
33:27
Speaker 1: a public side, you know. If Dallas is clearly the
33:33
Speaker 1: better team and if they show up, I mean they
33:35
Speaker 1: should win the game, then it becomes a matter of like,
33:39
Speaker 1: you know, how do you want to if you want
33:40
Speaker 1: to play that game at all, how do you want
33:41
Speaker 1: to play it on the Dallas side? You know what
33:44
Speaker 1: I mean? You could go Vancouver under their team total
33:47
Speaker 1: because the overall game has a pretty low total at
33:50
Speaker 1: six juice to the under basically, so maybe that is
33:53
Speaker 1: the way to do it. And I think you're gonna
33:56
Speaker 1: get at and during net again for Dallas there, but
33:58
Speaker 1: I don't know because he played the last game but
34:00
Speaker 1: didn't play the prior game. Carolina is at Seattle. Carolina
34:08
Speaker 1: coming off a couple of big wins against Tampa Bay
34:10
Speaker 1: and Detroit. Those are really nice wins, so they could
34:13
Speaker 1: be in a letdown spot here. Now they are starting
34:16
Speaker 1: a road trip, and a lot of times when you
34:18
Speaker 1: start a road trip you will be focused to get
34:20
Speaker 1: it off on the right foot. But coming off of
34:22
Speaker 1: those two huge wins and having to travel across country
34:25
Speaker 1: as an East Coast team, not having to play your
34:28
Speaker 1: first game in a long time on the West Coast
34:31
Speaker 1: late night, which, as I tell you, it affects these
34:34
Speaker 1: East Coast teams biological clocks. Man. They getting messed up
34:37
Speaker 1: having to play a late night game like this a
34:39
Speaker 1: lot of the time, the first game like this. Now,
34:42
Speaker 1: if they had Edmonton next instead of two games from
34:45
Speaker 1: now on Friday, I'd probably give you Seattle as a
34:48
Speaker 1: play here, because I think this is a sandwich spot
34:52
Speaker 1: the Carolina. It would be a sandwich spot that Carolina
34:55
Speaker 1: is in. I think at the very least they are
34:57
Speaker 1: in a letdown spot here, though I probably would lean
34:59
Speaker 1: to Seattle here Seattle is coming up a win over Vancouver,
35:03
Speaker 1: which I think is good because it'll just give them
35:05
Speaker 1: some confidence back. It was their first win since returning
35:09
Speaker 1: from the Olympic break. I think you know you're gonna
35:11
Speaker 1: get an effort out of them, at least when they
35:13
Speaker 1: know they have a good team like Carolina coming in.
35:15
Speaker 1: Carolina already dropped for minus one ninety to minus one seventy.
35:19
Speaker 1: Don't see the percentages yet on this, but I would
35:21
Speaker 1: look towards Seattle and that one maybe make like a
35:25
Speaker 1: do something with like part of the bet on the
35:27
Speaker 1: puck line and part of it on the money line,
35:29
Speaker 1: something like that. And then we have Colorado at the Kings. Now,
35:33
Speaker 1: one thing about the Kings is they just fired their coach.
35:36
Speaker 1: They fired Hiller so and they I think it seemed
35:40
Speaker 1: like they brought somebody in to make their interim coach.
35:43
Speaker 1: And you know, I talk about this all the time,
35:45
Speaker 1: the fire coach phenomenon. A lot of times you'll get
35:48
Speaker 1: a really good effort out of the team after they
35:50
Speaker 1: fire their coach because a lot of times the team
35:53
Speaker 1: just doesn't like the coach, they're not responding to the coach.
35:56
Speaker 1: But also the players want to prove that they're not
35:58
Speaker 1: the problem. The coach was the problem. What is interesting though,
36:01
Speaker 1: is they fired him after a win. They had a
36:04
Speaker 1: five game losing streak, and then they won against a
36:06
Speaker 1: bad Calgary team, but they still got a win in
36:09
Speaker 1: a shutout, and that like that's when they fired him.
36:13
Speaker 1: That's kind of crazy, But I think you will get
36:16
Speaker 1: an effort out of la here man. You're gonna get
36:18
Speaker 1: the fire coach spark here. And they're playing Colorado, so
36:22
Speaker 1: you probably know you're gonna get an effort out of them.
36:24
Speaker 1: And they just ended a five game losing streak, so
36:27
Speaker 1: that does end that losing momentum for them. Looking at
36:30
Speaker 1: that losing streak, by the way, like I don't know
36:33
Speaker 1: why they would fire their coach, Like they lost to
36:35
Speaker 1: Carolina Vegas twice in Edmonton, although they got absolutely killed
36:39
Speaker 1: by Edmonton eight to one, but still sometimes you have
36:42
Speaker 1: a really bad game, dude, and that in that streak.
36:47
Speaker 1: I just don't know if that's like worthy of firing
36:50
Speaker 1: your coach over The only team they lost to in
36:52
Speaker 1: that stretch that was bad was Seattle, and that was
36:55
Speaker 1: coming off a game where they played Carolina at an overtime,
36:58
Speaker 1: and I probably gave Seattle out as a player, knowing
37:01
Speaker 1: how I think because that was a major sandwich spot.
37:04
Speaker 1: So I don't think you can blame the coach for
37:06
Speaker 1: a lot of that, man, But I do think you'll
37:08
Speaker 1: get an effort out of the Kings here. Colorado's coming
37:11
Speaker 1: off an easy win over Chicago. They are starting a
37:16
Speaker 1: road trip here, so usually, yeah, you do get effort
37:18
Speaker 1: out of a team when they're starting a road trip.
37:21
Speaker 1: But they are gonna play Anaheim, Dallas, and Minnesota all
37:24
Speaker 1: up next, and they might focus more on those teams
37:27
Speaker 1: than on the Kings, who haven't been playing well. The
37:30
Speaker 1: Kings are not good at home, though, so that is
37:32
Speaker 1: another concern that I have. Maybe it'll be different under
37:34
Speaker 1: the new coach, but they've been really bad at home.
37:37
Speaker 1: I call them the Rangers West the Rangers West Coast
37:42
Speaker 1: because they're that bad at home. Nine thirteen and seven.
37:46
Speaker 1: Colorado's quite good on the road, seventeen six and five.
37:49
Speaker 1: They're good anywhere. So do I want to actually do it, No,
37:53
Speaker 1: but I will lean to LA in some capacity here.
37:56
Speaker 1: Although they have sixty two percent of the tickets, eighty
37:59
Speaker 1: percent of the Colorado who we're up to minus one
38:02
Speaker 1: seventy five. There's no way that I buy that. There's
38:05
Speaker 1: no way that I buy that there's a public ticket
38:08
Speaker 1: count on the Kings in this game. But in the
38:11
Speaker 1: fire coach phenomenon, whatever, I would have to lean their way.
38:14
Speaker 1: Make it like a puck line money line split type
38:17
Speaker 1: of scenario in that one. All right, NBA, there are
38:22
Speaker 1: four NBA games today. None of them are that compelling. Really.
38:27
Speaker 1: Houston at Washington, Yeah, that's a great one. Houston is
38:31
Speaker 1: coming up a loss to Miami. Kind of a tough game.
38:35
Speaker 1: They did lose by ten, though they do have Golden
38:37
Speaker 1: State on deck, so there is a possibility they just
38:39
Speaker 1: don't take Washington seriously. So then it becomes a matter
38:42
Speaker 1: of how much of an effort when you get out
38:44
Speaker 1: of Washington. They did cover from me in their last game.
38:47
Speaker 1: I gave you guys a winner on that against Toronto
38:50
Speaker 1: two days ago. They are staying at home, and at
38:52
Speaker 1: least they gave you an effort against a decent team.
38:55
Speaker 1: So at least it looks like Washington is not totally
38:59
Speaker 1: packing it in yet. I would probably need to taking
39:02
Speaker 1: the points of the Wizards here. It's not very strong.
39:05
Speaker 1: Rockets are down from sixteen to fifteen and a half,
39:08
Speaker 1: seventy three percent of the tickets and sixty five percent
39:10
Speaker 1: of the cash on them, So the market Reid is
39:13
Speaker 1: saying the Wizards. I'll agree with taking the points of
39:16
Speaker 1: the Wizards, but I don't find it to be that strong.
39:20
Speaker 1: My boss's Celtics are at Milwaukee and they're playing on
39:24
Speaker 1: a back to back. Pretty tricky spot for the Celtics here.
39:28
Speaker 1: They just had a nice win over Philadelphia yesterday. They
39:31
Speaker 1: pretty much destroyed Philadelphia and it seems like the Celtics
39:34
Speaker 1: have a different star player every game, which is good
39:37
Speaker 1: because it's like that next man up mentality. This is
39:40
Speaker 1: why the Celtics are good, man, and why Joe Mizzoula
39:43
Speaker 1: is good. Their best player in yesterday's game was Niemius
39:47
Speaker 1: Caida with a twenty and ten performance, actually twenty seven
39:52
Speaker 1: to seventeen. Crazy performance from him yesterday. That probably means
39:56
Speaker 1: Embiid wasn't playing. If a big man dominant for the
40:00
Speaker 1: Celtics like that, what do you know? That's right? And
40:02
Speaker 1: Bed did not play, So there you go for the
40:06
Speaker 1: Sixers yesterday. Now the Celtics are coming off of that.
40:09
Speaker 1: That was a decent win, although they were a huge favorite,
40:13
Speaker 1: but the Sixers have an okay record. Celtics do have
40:16
Speaker 1: the much hyped Charlotte Hornets on deck, and a single
40:19
Speaker 1: game road trip to Milwaukee with no Yiannis on a
40:23
Speaker 1: back to back does seem odd. So I don't love
40:26
Speaker 1: the Celtics in the spot. Milwaukee has been playing with
40:29
Speaker 1: effort man and they've lost their last two games and
40:32
Speaker 1: blowouts though, But before that they'd won five of their
40:34
Speaker 1: last six games until they got blown out by the Knicks,
40:37
Speaker 1: and then they got blown out by a really bad
40:39
Speaker 1: Chicago team. That was yesterday. So they're traveling back from Chicago,
40:43
Speaker 1: but it's only Chicago to Milwaukee in their case, and
40:47
Speaker 1: they got absolutely drilled in that game. So the only
40:50
Speaker 1: way I could lean in this game is Milwaukee plus
40:52
Speaker 1: the points. Unfortunately, Celtics up from seven to seven and
40:56
Speaker 1: a half here seventy nine percent take at sixty two
40:59
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on them. So I like the
41:01
Speaker 1: home dogs in these games today. Man, the market is
41:05
Speaker 1: agreeing with every home underdog in the NBA today, and
41:08
Speaker 1: I might as well. The next game up, I certainly do.
41:17
Speaker 1: This is gonna be my NBA play. I know this
41:19
Speaker 1: is bad. We're gonna take the Utah Jazz plus twelve
41:23
Speaker 1: against Denver. I think the spot is pretty bad for
41:26
Speaker 1: Denver here Man. Denver, they're coming off two monster, well
41:31
Speaker 1: really three big games back last Wednesday, they beat the
41:35
Speaker 1: Celtics by margin, then they took Oklahoma City two overtime
41:40
Speaker 1: and almost beat them on Friday. Then they came back
41:43
Speaker 1: home and I did tell you I liked Minnesota yesterday,
41:46
Speaker 1: but that was still a big game for both teams. Man.
41:49
Speaker 1: I know they lost by nine, but that was a
41:52
Speaker 1: huge game. And now they're coming off with that run
41:54
Speaker 1: of games on a back to back, a third game
41:57
Speaker 1: in four days, all in different cities. It's actually a
41:59
Speaker 1: four game in six days with travel between every game,
42:04
Speaker 1: and they have a huge Amazon Prime game against the
42:07
Speaker 1: Lakers on deck, and then they have the Knicks, Oklahoma
42:10
Speaker 1: City again, Houston, San Antonio, and the Lakers again. So
42:14
Speaker 1: their next whatever that is six games are all monster
42:18
Speaker 1: monster games, way bigger than this game against Utah. So yeah,
42:23
Speaker 1: I think this is gonna be a bad spot for
42:25
Speaker 1: Denver here Man. I know Denver is good on the road,
42:27
Speaker 1: They're actually not that good of a home team, but
42:30
Speaker 1: Utah is better at home than on the road. So
42:33
Speaker 1: at least we have kind of that in our back
42:35
Speaker 1: pocket at least, and we're not asking them to win,
42:37
Speaker 1: of course, they just need to cover a huge number here.
42:40
Speaker 1: I know Utah is injured, Marketing is out. I get it.
42:44
Speaker 1: Denver might be getting Aaron Gordon back for this game,
42:47
Speaker 1: but if they do, I think that might just mess
42:49
Speaker 1: up their rotation, you know what I mean. So Denver
42:52
Speaker 1: they got some injuries here as well. Man, so both
42:54
Speaker 1: teams dealing with some injuries here. Although I know Marketing
42:57
Speaker 1: is a significant injury for Utah and Jackson isn't gonna
43:01
Speaker 1: play at all for them this year, unfortunate because they
43:04
Speaker 1: traded for him. But in a spot like this, I
43:07
Speaker 1: think you know you're gonna see Utah's guys step up
43:10
Speaker 1: for this one. In my opinion, I think it's a
43:12
Speaker 1: game they will get up for against Denver. The spot
43:14
Speaker 1: is horrible for Denver. Utah has rest, by the way,
43:18
Speaker 1: and they did just lose to the Pelicans, which is
43:20
Speaker 1: pretty embarrassing. They lost two straight games at home to
43:23
Speaker 1: the Pelicans. So I think in a spot like this,
43:26
Speaker 1: I think you might get an effort for once. It's
43:28
Speaker 1: like you don't want to lose every game on the
43:30
Speaker 1: home stand here. I mean, come on, man, I don't
43:33
Speaker 1: think Utah is quite in tank mode yet. Man. You
43:36
Speaker 1: can kind of tell based on these results, because you know,
43:39
Speaker 1: they didn't get blown out really in those games, so
43:41
Speaker 1: it's not like they're just like completely packing it. And
43:44
Speaker 1: I know their coach was like benching some of their
43:46
Speaker 1: best players late in the game. Whatever. But this is
43:49
Speaker 1: a game where it's a spot play. Nuggets are down
43:52
Speaker 1: for twelve to eleven and a half here. They're highly public.
43:55
Speaker 1: They're the most public side in the NBA today, eighty
43:58
Speaker 1: nine percent of the tickets but only seventy center the cash.
44:00
Speaker 1: So we're gonna fade the Nuggets here. Man, We're gonna
44:04
Speaker 1: take the Jazz. And you know what that means. You
44:07
Speaker 1: know what we're gonna do. Who do I rote for?
44:09
Speaker 1: What am I to look for? Utah? We're gonna root
44:16
Speaker 1: for Utah in that one, all right? And then now
44:20
Speaker 1: the final game is Clippers at Warriors on Peacock and
44:24
Speaker 1: NBC Network at ten PM, or that Celtics and Milwaukee
44:28
Speaker 1: game is on NBA TV. By the way, how fun.
44:34
Speaker 1: The Clippers are coming off a blowout win over the Pelicans,
44:37
Speaker 1: which I don't think they're really gonna care much about that.
44:38
Speaker 1: But what's good for the Clippers is an end of
44:41
Speaker 1: three game losing streak, so I think they will have momentum.
44:44
Speaker 1: But they're on a back to back. They do have
44:46
Speaker 1: to travel up the coast now to play Golden State,
44:49
Speaker 1: so back to back with travel not exactly the best spot.
44:52
Speaker 1: Although they had a decent amount of rest prior to
44:55
Speaker 1: the New Orleans game, and really playing New Orleans is
44:57
Speaker 1: basically like having a bye anyway, so I'm not too
45:00
Speaker 1: concerned by the rest here for the Clippers. Golden State
45:05
Speaker 1: is coming up of a blowout loss to the Lakers
45:09
Speaker 1: and they are staying at home, so the travel spot
45:12
Speaker 1: is a little bit better there. For Golden State, they're
45:14
Speaker 1: still without Curry. It looks like Curry is going to
45:16
Speaker 1: be out for at least another week. The money is
45:19
Speaker 1: saying the Warriors here. I just don't have a strong
45:21
Speaker 1: opinion on it. Clippers flip from a one point dodge
45:24
Speaker 1: to one app point favorite, and to me, I would
45:27
Speaker 1: think that the public would not really want the Clippers
45:29
Speaker 1: here because again, they still have a bad record and
45:32
Speaker 1: the Clippers are bad on the road. Though, are the
45:34
Speaker 1: Clippers thirteen and eighteen on the road, Golden State nineteen
45:38
Speaker 1: and twelve at home. So Golden State is better at home.
45:40
Speaker 1: Although I know Clippers are better now than they were
45:43
Speaker 1: early in the season. Golden State doesn't have Curry right now.
45:46
Speaker 1: I get all that, but I'm kind of surprised that
45:49
Speaker 1: the public is on the Clippers as much as they are.
45:52
Speaker 1: Maybe it's just because they know Curry is out sixty
45:55
Speaker 1: percent of the tickets around the Clippers eighty two percent
45:57
Speaker 1: of the cash on the Warriors, you know, based on
46:00
Speaker 1: the home road splits. I guess I'm not gonna disagree
46:03
Speaker 1: with the Warriors there when I don't really have much else,
46:06
Speaker 1: you know, much else as far as the situation it's
46:09
Speaker 1: concerned to really look at in this game, I guess
46:11
Speaker 1: I won't disagree with that. But all right, that's gonna
46:15
Speaker 1: do it. Man. So we're gonna wind up with three
46:17
Speaker 1: plays today a college basketball we're on all underdogs. We're
46:21
Speaker 1: taking NC State plus the points. Try to get ten
46:25
Speaker 1: on that. Although it's not football, so ten is not
46:27
Speaker 1: a key number. Southeast and Louisiana plus the points there
46:32
Speaker 1: in a very very odd spot that you usually will
46:35
Speaker 1: not find something like that and then Utah the Jazz
46:40
Speaker 1: plus the points. Let's get back on the winning sides today. Man,
46:43
Speaker 1: I don't feel great about these plays really, and I
46:47
Speaker 1: don't know why the market is disagreeing with me on
46:49
Speaker 1: NC State, but this is how it sets up for me.
46:52
Speaker 1: This is what we're gonna do. That's gonna do it
46:54
Speaker 1: for me. Let's enjoy the beginning of March madness. Man,
46:58
Speaker 1: that game might be fun to watch. Games where both
47:01
Speaker 1: teams are defenseless are pretty entertaining usually, So we'll get
47:07
Speaker 1: that game with Cleveland State and I U p U
47:10
Speaker 1: I to kick off the Horizon Tournament. All right, that's
47:13
Speaker 1: gonna do it, man. I appreciate it everybody. I'll be
47:16
Speaker 1: back for tomorrow and then probably my next because I'm
47:20
Speaker 1: gonna do probably I think three of the shows like
47:23
Speaker 1: I did last night, breaking down the futures market. In
47:26
Speaker 1: the conference tournaments. I think the first the earliest conference
47:31
Speaker 1: tournaments start for a conference tournament that I didn't have
47:34
Speaker 1: a bracket yet for as far as you know last
47:37
Speaker 1: night when I did the show, I think it is
47:38
Speaker 1: probably on the fifth. So I might come back on
47:41
Speaker 1: Wednesday and do another one of those shows. We'll see
47:44
Speaker 1: and then of course next week the big conference tournament's
47:47
Speaker 1: all happened, So things are happening. It's gonna do it
47:52
Speaker 1: for now. I forgot to do my plugs on last
47:55
Speaker 1: night's show. I'll learn a tone and on Twitter you
47:57
Speaker 1: can subscribe to me there. Every little little bit helps, man,
48:00
Speaker 1: So I appreciate all that I learned to tone on
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48:07
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48:13
Speaker 1: I need to change my room or so I gotta
48:16
Speaker 1: do something different here man. But yes, like subscribe, give
48:20
Speaker 1: me good replies here, listen on audio and review on
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Speaker 1: audio Apple Spotify. That helps me out as well, covering
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Speaker 1: you because my yuke channel on YouTube, so like subscribe
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Speaker 1: give me replies there as well. Patreon dot com learn
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Speaker 1: to toe to. Every little bit helps man, Like I said,
48:38
Speaker 1: so you get some bonus stuff there. Some requests that
48:41
Speaker 1: I know I haven't done too many. I've done at
48:43
Speaker 1: least one request for everybody that's requested stuff, so you
48:47
Speaker 1: know I'm gonna try to do more. But check that
48:49
Speaker 1: out as well. And then Loser Casts will be back
48:52
Speaker 1: tomorrow with a new episode, and I got to figure
48:54
Speaker 1: out a loser to choose for this week. There's always something, man,
48:58
Speaker 1: there's always something going on. I'll figure something out that's
49:01
Speaker 1: gonna do it. Thanks guys, I appreciate it. Let's have
49:04
Speaker 1: a winning day. Peace,