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NFL Week 8 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Hello, Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume
0:13
Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, your co host, chief
0:17
Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. At the Action Network,
0:20
Speaker 1: we do everything we can to make you smarter about betting, research,
0:25
Speaker 1: data analysis, stories, picks from our wide, wide panel of experts,
0:33
Speaker 1: which includes our good friend, my bff, my companion, my compadre,
0:39
Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter co host, What's up brother, Good morning,
0:46
Speaker 1: my friend, Good morning to you. I saw you yesterday.
0:49
Speaker 1: We had our first annual Halloween cookie decorating contest for
0:57
Speaker 1: the Action Network. This is why I love this company.
0:59
Speaker 1: We had a cookie decorating contest yesterday. So interesting. In
1:02
Speaker 1: the four years we've had the business, almost four years
1:04
Speaker 1: we've had the business, there are a lot of people
1:06
Speaker 1: who are younger, a lot of people who were just
1:08
Speaker 1: getting married, a lot of people who have since gotten
1:10
Speaker 1: married and now like people who are starting to have kids.
1:13
Speaker 1: So on the call, there were a bunch of folks
1:16
Speaker 1: that some people brought their husbands and wise, some people
1:20
Speaker 1: brought their kids and they were decorating and whatever. And
1:22
Speaker 1: then and then there was Simon Bachelor, Simon joining the
1:29
Speaker 1: cookie decorating party to celebrate Halloween instead of the party tonight,
1:35
Speaker 1: which is the virtual make your own cocktail. Everybody who
1:38
Speaker 1: signed up was sent like this premium make your own
1:42
Speaker 1: cocktail kit. Simon joined the cookie decorating. I mean, I'll
1:46
Speaker 1: never pass an opportunity cookies, Chad, So I knew that
1:49
Speaker 1: if I could signed up the cookie challenge, I'd get
1:51
Speaker 1: cookies mailed to me. And that's exactly what happened. So
1:53
Speaker 1: it was a win win for the record. I would
1:56
Speaker 1: I would also go to the drinking I would have
1:58
Speaker 1: done the cooking either way. Today as my son's fifteenth birthday,
2:01
Speaker 1: we got some big plans. We got the bulls. Next
2:03
Speaker 1: tonight we have a huge, huge show, and I will
2:06
Speaker 1: tell you right now, we will do as we always
2:09
Speaker 1: do on this show. We will narrow down the slate.
2:13
Speaker 1: We will focus on the games that we started to
2:15
Speaker 1: think we loved. On Tuesday. We will talk about our
2:17
Speaker 1: Survivor pick. We will talk about our money line parlay
2:19
Speaker 1: pick um. We will get too sharp calls, the calls
2:23
Speaker 1: from professional betters that you've gotten in the past forty
2:25
Speaker 1: hours where they either love or hate your picks. We
2:29
Speaker 1: will probably have to get to big balls because we
2:31
Speaker 1: had Simon says the other day, which was the Colts.
2:37
Speaker 1: We had a foxhold that was the Saints. But I
2:40
Speaker 1: don't want a Dilly Daly man like I want to
2:42
Speaker 1: get into it because I made some notes this morning.
2:45
Speaker 1: I had four games written down that I freaking loved, loved.
2:51
Speaker 1: Oh god, what were the I So let's get into it.
2:56
Speaker 1: I didn't love it, but I do want us to
2:58
Speaker 1: get back to it. The new were Jets ten point
3:01
Speaker 1: underdogs at the Bengals. I think it's I think the
3:04
Speaker 1: Jets of the right side. I'm not sure it's a
3:06
Speaker 1: final five like we talked about, that's a that's a
3:08
Speaker 1: pro game where if it was Zack Wilson, we would
3:11
Speaker 1: have loved this number. We would have taken Jets money line.
3:14
Speaker 1: This is such a good trap game for the Cincinnati team.
3:18
Speaker 1: But now it's not. It's I mean, we could be
3:21
Speaker 1: way off, like how do we know what this kid white?
3:23
Speaker 1: It's gonna be the quarterback for the Jets. But mathematically
3:26
Speaker 1: there are no real reasons to be backing this Jets team. Um,
3:30
Speaker 1: the number is good. Other than that, it's it's kind
3:33
Speaker 1: of like an unknown so that there's just too much
3:34
Speaker 1: variance for me to really feel confident betting this number
3:37
Speaker 1: for a lot of people. Mike White might be rated
3:41
Speaker 1: the saint as Zack Wilson, it might not be a downgrade.
3:43
Speaker 1: So what you're really betting in this game is and
3:46
Speaker 1: Stucky and Raybond. Stucky and Chris Raybond talked about this
3:49
Speaker 1: in the Action That Were a podcast earlier. Today. You're
3:52
Speaker 1: getting a Jets team that a couple of weeks ago
3:54
Speaker 1: would have been a one point underdog in this game,
3:57
Speaker 1: but now, all of a sudden, the Bengals because of
4:00
Speaker 1: what they did against the Ravens and because they they're
4:03
Speaker 1: streaking a little bit, they're flying high. Just a massive
4:07
Speaker 1: potential overcorrection in the market. I look into what the
4:10
Speaker 1: number was that was preseason, the number you're talking about,
4:13
Speaker 1: and then last week I believe it was three and
4:14
Speaker 1: a half, four and a half when Zach Wilson was
4:16
Speaker 1: supposed to be the quarterback. So, again, like you just said,
4:19
Speaker 1: is Zach Wilson really reverse worth seven points? Is that
4:22
Speaker 1: why there were so much movement? Or is it because
4:24
Speaker 1: the bank will just blew out the Ravens. So like
4:26
Speaker 1: you're just talking about that, it's way too much movement
4:28
Speaker 1: for a team that you know, what, have they're really
4:31
Speaker 1: done to make it that big other than yeah, we
4:35
Speaker 1: were just unsure about this quarterback position. All right. Then
4:38
Speaker 1: we got to talk about the next game because the
4:41
Speaker 1: Colts opened as one and a half point underdogs. We
4:45
Speaker 1: said it was the Simon says bet might be one
4:47
Speaker 1: of your biggest bets of the week. Matt Mitchell has
4:50
Speaker 1: said that he has since made it one of the
4:52
Speaker 1: biggest bets of his life on the on the Colts. Uh,
4:56
Speaker 1: and he bet him on the money line, you were
4:58
Speaker 1: way ahead of the market. Now the line is Cults
5:03
Speaker 1: minus two. Yeah. Anytime you are ahead of a three
5:07
Speaker 1: and a half point movement off no injury news and
5:09
Speaker 1: nothing else, you feel pretty damn good like you're a
5:12
Speaker 1: way ahead of the market, which again we talked about.
5:14
Speaker 1: I told people to stop what they're doing, pull over
5:17
Speaker 1: and make this bet because I knew pros are gonna
5:19
Speaker 1: come in really heavy on it, especially all the different
5:21
Speaker 1: professionals I talked to. We all kind of matched up
5:24
Speaker 1: and loved this matchup. But man, that's crazy movement. Three
5:28
Speaker 1: and a half points. That's that's a big deal for
5:30
Speaker 1: sports books to move it that much when all the money,
5:33
Speaker 1: all the tickets are still coming in on the Titans
5:36
Speaker 1: and they're moving against it. So yeah, a lot of
5:39
Speaker 1: signals there. Um, I'm feeling a little too confident. That's
5:42
Speaker 1: the problem. Now. It's like, Wow, I nailed this. If
5:44
Speaker 1: this gets a three three and a half with the Titans,
5:47
Speaker 1: I'll have to come back on the other side. But
5:49
Speaker 1: for right now, it's still a good number to me.
5:50
Speaker 1: As long as it stays below two and a half
5:52
Speaker 1: and it stays at two, that's that's good value for
5:54
Speaker 1: the Colts. Yeah, this is a This is a pros
5:57
Speaker 1: Joe's game in every sense of the word. Massive ticket
6:01
Speaker 1: discrepancy of the tickets coming in on the Titans, of
6:07
Speaker 1: the money coming in the Colts. That tells you that
6:09
Speaker 1: the professional bettors have come in on the Colts. It's
6:12
Speaker 1: why it has moved so much. Before we get any further,
6:17
Speaker 1: I forgot to bring in sharp calls. So we've talked
6:19
Speaker 1: about the Colts. We love the Colts. We loved them
6:21
Speaker 1: a plus one and a half. We're still going to
6:22
Speaker 1: be on them. If it gets any higher, we've got
6:24
Speaker 1: to reconsider it. Let's talk about the sharp calls you've
6:27
Speaker 1: got this week. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Maybe the
6:40
Speaker 1: guys were a little more timid this week after last weekend.
6:43
Speaker 1: Last weekend, you loved the Packers, and they were calling
6:46
Speaker 1: you saying no, no, we're on Washington football team, and
6:49
Speaker 1: you stuck with the Packers. The line moved to get
6:51
Speaker 1: moved in the opposite direction. It moved with the Washington
6:53
Speaker 1: football team, and we nailed it. We were spot on. Yeah,
6:57
Speaker 1: that's that's the rare case where it's like this one
7:00
Speaker 1: just keeps covering. This other team sucks and they just
7:02
Speaker 1: can't figure out how to cover. It was kind of
7:04
Speaker 1: as simple as that, and I thought it was a
7:06
Speaker 1: good number. I headed at ten. It was still nine
7:08
Speaker 1: and a half, like closing. I never had any fear
7:11
Speaker 1: of that number. But this week it's kind of the
7:13
Speaker 1: same thing. I would say. Multiple guys called me about
7:16
Speaker 1: them really liking the Patriots. They really love the Patriots.
7:18
Speaker 1: Its massive with the Chargers and they've come in and
7:20
Speaker 1: they've got that number down. Nothing's change. I still think
7:23
Speaker 1: the Chargers is the right side. I still think you're
7:24
Speaker 1: getting a good number on that. And the other one
7:26
Speaker 1: they've kind of had me waivering now is Miami. They
7:28
Speaker 1: love Miami. They love Miami a fourteen. They loved it
7:31
Speaker 1: off short fourteen and a half. Some books it's down
7:33
Speaker 1: to thirteen a half. I believe Fando it's down to
7:35
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm overlooking
7:38
Speaker 1: um this Miami team, but I just can't go to
7:40
Speaker 1: the fact that Bills dominate Miami and they domin him
7:43
Speaker 1: at home. People forget last year, the final week of
7:46
Speaker 1: the season, the Bills were going to arrest their starters
7:49
Speaker 1: and Miami was playing for a playoff spot. I believe
7:51
Speaker 1: they hung fifty points up on Miami. It just seems
7:54
Speaker 1: like match up wise, this Bills team just matches up
7:56
Speaker 1: really well. This Miami's team. I get what the guys
7:59
Speaker 1: are saying, this is Miami's you know, throw it all
8:02
Speaker 1: against this one team, this is for their whole season.
8:05
Speaker 1: But I feel like, after it's such a good game
8:07
Speaker 1: by two it last week, I kind of still want
8:09
Speaker 1: to fade him this week going on the road playing
8:11
Speaker 1: it up in Buffalo, So you know, I get what
8:14
Speaker 1: they're coming from, but nothing's changing me from that standpoint,
8:17
Speaker 1: and the final one. They they hate that. I'm just
8:23
Speaker 1: so confident this Giants team. They think this is a
8:26
Speaker 1: great bounce back week for the Chiefs, and we're gonna
8:28
Speaker 1: talk with the Chiefs. That's probably up in our Survivor pick.
8:31
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm overthinking this. I feel like that
8:33
Speaker 1: this is the right side to take with the Giants,
8:35
Speaker 1: and I was shocked to hear that so many of
8:36
Speaker 1: them are cool taking this Chief's team at home. I
8:40
Speaker 1: get the reason. It's a primetime game to get right game.
8:43
Speaker 1: The Giants are coming off a huge win. But ten points,
8:46
Speaker 1: ten a half points, that's way too many points for
8:48
Speaker 1: this Chief's team. So we'll see how it chicks out. Chat.
8:51
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's gonna be one of our five,
8:53
Speaker 1: but I feel confident in that number. And I think
8:56
Speaker 1: you're getting a good deal here with the Giants on
8:58
Speaker 1: the road. All right, well, we're gonna put Those are
9:00
Speaker 1: all games that we're probably gonna want to talk about,
9:01
Speaker 1: except for probably the the Dolphins. Like I'm with you,
9:05
Speaker 1: one thing to note. During the Sean McDermott era, they've
9:10
Speaker 1: beaten the Dolphins by an average of something like twenty
9:13
Speaker 1: points a game. I don't even know that, And I'm
9:16
Speaker 1: with you. I think there's times where you wanna fade
9:20
Speaker 1: the huge favorite looks smart taking the big dog. I
9:25
Speaker 1: don't know that this Dolphins team has the talent or
9:29
Speaker 1: the confidence going against the team like the Bills that
9:33
Speaker 1: is coming off of by the other game which I'm
9:36
Speaker 1: feeling less confident about is the top five Bears plus
9:39
Speaker 1: three and a half. Yeah, it makes sense you take
9:43
Speaker 1: the Bears in this spot, but I don't know if
9:46
Speaker 1: I like I want to put on it. It's mainly
9:51
Speaker 1: because of Hicks and macjuries. Um, if they're hurt on
9:54
Speaker 1: that d line. Of the same reason I told you
9:56
Speaker 1: I really like Tampa last week. I like Tampa's matchup
10:00
Speaker 1: with this team, and I just the Bears that too
10:02
Speaker 1: many injuries on that front line to be able to
10:03
Speaker 1: stop the run. And Hicks is an absolute game changer.
10:07
Speaker 1: I know Mac gets all the love Hicks. He might
10:10
Speaker 1: be better than Mac honestly, and you can look at
10:12
Speaker 1: statistically what he does for this team. So yeah, Chad,
10:16
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna fight you on that. I do like
10:18
Speaker 1: the Bears. It feels like the smart side here, But yeah,
10:20
Speaker 1: I got other games I like way more than this one.
10:22
Speaker 1: So with the injuries adding up now for this Bears team,
10:25
Speaker 1: I got no issue passing on this one. Yeah, that
10:28
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with you about Hicks. I'm not sure
10:30
Speaker 1: he's like as impactful as Khalil Mack just because one
10:33
Speaker 1: of the reasons he can be so impactful is because
10:36
Speaker 1: Khalil Mack takes up some requires so much attention, right,
10:39
Speaker 1: And so you've got a guy like Hicks who's incredibly
10:42
Speaker 1: talented and incredibly powerful on the defensive line, but there
10:46
Speaker 1: are times where he's getting better blocking matchups because he's
10:50
Speaker 1: got Khalila Mack on the outside who's requiring more attention.
10:53
Speaker 1: We're gonna pass on that one. The game you mentioned
10:56
Speaker 1: in sharp Calls, Chargers opened at six again the Patriots
11:01
Speaker 1: when we talked about it on Tuesday, they were at
11:03
Speaker 1: five and a half. So the wise guys that started
11:04
Speaker 1: coming in the past that game right now is down
11:09
Speaker 1: to four and a half four and a half. There's
11:13
Speaker 1: a lot of talk about how much professional betters, as
11:15
Speaker 1: you mentioned, love the Patriots. They love them defensively, they
11:18
Speaker 1: love them on special teams. They don't like how much
11:21
Speaker 1: the Chargers have been living in dime by third and
11:24
Speaker 1: fourth down conversions which totally bit them against the Ravens,
11:27
Speaker 1: which you and I capitalized on because we agreed that
11:30
Speaker 1: was gonna be a regression spot. But I'm with you, man.
11:34
Speaker 1: I look at the Chargers at four and a half,
11:36
Speaker 1: I'm like, are you freaking kidding me? And we talked
11:39
Speaker 1: all the time. I hate that, always go back to it,
11:41
Speaker 1: but I just love the stock market. This is the
11:43
Speaker 1: same exact thing people are buying at the highest point now.
11:46
Speaker 1: The Patriots are coming off what they put up fifty
11:49
Speaker 1: one points last week against this Jets team, playing the
11:52
Speaker 1: team the last time people saw them got blown out
11:54
Speaker 1: by the Ravens. I love it. I feel like them,
11:57
Speaker 1: especially them coming off a bye at home, giving them
12:00
Speaker 1: extra time to prepare for this team. The Patriots are
12:03
Speaker 1: just bad um in certain ways. But the best thing
12:07
Speaker 1: that Patriots do is run the ball. So that's why
12:09
Speaker 1: I think the professionals are coming in because they're saying, okay,
12:12
Speaker 1: they'king about a run the ball against the Chargers defense.
12:14
Speaker 1: Give Mac short fields of work with which we've seen it.
12:17
Speaker 1: Mac Jones is really good at three to five guard passes.
12:20
Speaker 1: That's where he thrives. Like these short, quick throws. He
12:23
Speaker 1: is really good at him. He gets him out quick
12:24
Speaker 1: and he gets first downs that way. But I have
12:27
Speaker 1: to look at it this that, Okay, the Patriots haven't
12:31
Speaker 1: been anyone good. They're there have only been bad teams.
12:34
Speaker 1: Like they beat Houston and they beat the Jets twice, Like,
12:38
Speaker 1: what are we doing here? I'm trying to keep it simple,
12:40
Speaker 1: stupid and this is one of those opportunities where you
12:43
Speaker 1: just take the charges and you live and die with
12:44
Speaker 1: what the results are. It's it's just an overinflated team
12:47
Speaker 1: right now in the Patriots. Yeah, it's it's fascinating to
12:52
Speaker 1: hear the conversation about Mac Jones best quarterback drafted when
12:59
Speaker 1: he's not really doing anything, he's not winning them games.
13:03
Speaker 1: They look good. I'll give it to him. He does.
13:05
Speaker 1: Look he didn't beat the Bucks. He looks good by
13:08
Speaker 1: the way. He looks good in comparison, meaning he's not
13:11
Speaker 1: making the mistakes. He's got great protection and there Josh
13:14
Speaker 1: McDaniels is given a great game plan because he's not
13:17
Speaker 1: asking him to throw it downfield. You look at what
13:20
Speaker 1: the other quarterbacks are having to do, Trevor Lawrence justin fields,
13:23
Speaker 1: Zack Wilson, like Trey Lance, who's not even on the field.
13:26
Speaker 1: Like those guys, They're being asked to do different things.
13:30
Speaker 1: There's a reason that pat for the Patriots for the
13:32
Speaker 1: fifte pick. Okay Obo said they had town on that team.
13:35
Speaker 1: They spend money off season add to talent, and he
13:38
Speaker 1: was like a fifth year senior. So Mac again, he's
13:41
Speaker 1: looked good right now. This is it Like Mack isn't
13:44
Speaker 1: going to get that much better than what he is
13:46
Speaker 1: right now. He's kind of That's why he was a
13:48
Speaker 1: fifth pick. His upside was very limited. But on the
13:51
Speaker 1: low side, it's limited to this guy is just a solid,
13:53
Speaker 1: good quarterback. I think that's that's what people are getting
13:56
Speaker 1: right now. But yeah, like the hype around him again,
14:00
Speaker 1: he's beaten the three teams he's beaten, I won't fallt him.
14:04
Speaker 1: He looked good against Dallas, he played well, I guess
14:06
Speaker 1: against the Buccaneers. But at the same time, it's I
14:10
Speaker 1: feel like it's more about Belichick and this team that
14:12
Speaker 1: keeps them in this game. So I I just if
14:15
Speaker 1: you're if you're betting a rookie quarterback on the road
14:18
Speaker 1: here like that comeback the head against Houston, that's not
14:21
Speaker 1: gonna happen against the Chargers. The Chargers are light years
14:24
Speaker 1: better team than that Houston team. So if he gets
14:26
Speaker 1: down by two touchdowns of Herbert. I just cannot see
14:30
Speaker 1: this kid coming back. Chargers not as good defensively as
14:34
Speaker 1: I would like them to be, especially against the run,
14:37
Speaker 1: which is the one thing the Patriots can do. They're
14:39
Speaker 1: awful against the run, they really are, but they're really
14:42
Speaker 1: good against the past, honestly. So we're just going with it.
14:45
Speaker 1: We're saying four and a half is the right number. Yeah,
14:47
Speaker 1: if that's what it is, and if that's what it
14:48
Speaker 1: is and that our top five, I would put it
14:50
Speaker 1: in there. But we'll keep putting alonger because there are
14:53
Speaker 1: other other games that we do love well. The other
14:55
Speaker 1: game that is just gross. Sometimes betting means doing bad things.
15:01
Speaker 1: This is truly disgusting, gross bets, gross profits. But the
15:06
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks with Gino Smith are probably a bottom five
15:12
Speaker 1: team and they're playing the Jacksonville Jaguars and there are
15:16
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites. And I will say
15:18
Speaker 1: the same thing we said a couple of weeks ago.
15:21
Speaker 1: The Jaguars can stop the run, the Jaguars can run
15:24
Speaker 1: the ball, and they have a better quarterback. Everything you
15:27
Speaker 1: just said is why I we talked on Tuesday. Three
15:30
Speaker 1: and a half. You're giving me two ugly dogs. I'm
15:33
Speaker 1: gonna take the three and a half with the uglier
15:35
Speaker 1: team and the Jaguars in the sense that this is
15:38
Speaker 1: a field goal game where it's two and a half.
15:39
Speaker 1: I think it's down to three and most books now,
15:42
Speaker 1: so hopefully you can still get the three and a
15:44
Speaker 1: half of your with us and you like this Jaguars team.
15:46
Speaker 1: But yeah, coming off a bye week, I do like
15:49
Speaker 1: what the Seats are trying to do with Gino. But
15:51
Speaker 1: he is bad. I just rewatched that game from Monday
15:54
Speaker 1: night again bad, Like he makes the stupidest throws. He
15:57
Speaker 1: still throws off his back foot into average He's just
16:01
Speaker 1: he's just not a smart quarterback. And say what you
16:03
Speaker 1: want about Trevor Lawrence. My favorite thing to see from
16:06
Speaker 1: the young quarterbacks is if they're throwing an interception, they
16:09
Speaker 1: come back and they just go right back to it.
16:11
Speaker 1: Like Mac Jones last Weekgainst Dallas, he threw that picks six,
16:14
Speaker 1: he went right back at it. That's I love seeing
16:16
Speaker 1: that from a quarterback. To me, that's bigger than anything
16:19
Speaker 1: else they can really do. So with Trevor Lawrence, I've
16:22
Speaker 1: seen it where he's throwing your receptions, he's done. He's
16:23
Speaker 1: doing stupid stuff. He doesn't let it affect him. He
16:26
Speaker 1: comes right back and he keeps throwing it downfield. So
16:29
Speaker 1: you're gonna mean one offense like a complete high powered offense.
16:32
Speaker 1: I feel like the Jaguars offensively are way above the
16:35
Speaker 1: Seahawks team. Defensively, they're both awful. I really that Seahawks
16:40
Speaker 1: game against No. Orleans that was more than New Orleans
16:42
Speaker 1: just couldn't capitalize on opportunities. They kept getting in the
16:44
Speaker 1: red zone and getting stopped. I actually think the Jaguars
16:48
Speaker 1: and put up points in this matchup. So if you're
16:50
Speaker 1: still out there to be able to get the three
16:52
Speaker 1: and a half of this Jaguars team, I really like
16:53
Speaker 1: that number pros Joe's tickets on Seattle sixty one of
16:59
Speaker 1: the money. That's crazy me that many people are still
17:02
Speaker 1: bet in the Seahawks even after watching that game. I mean,
17:04
Speaker 1: I guess the Jags are that bad, but that's that's
17:07
Speaker 1: pretty crazy. I think it's really about the Jags being
17:09
Speaker 1: that bad. And look, there's a lot of there's Look
17:11
Speaker 1: there's a lot of people in the market, Like there's
17:13
Speaker 1: new people in the market that are seeing the Seahawks
17:16
Speaker 1: and maybe they saw the Seahawks play really well or
17:21
Speaker 1: play well enough. You know, they played well back to
17:24
Speaker 1: back weeks, so that that's what they're betting on right there.
17:27
Speaker 1: And the pros are doing what they always do. They're
17:30
Speaker 1: betting the worst team in football getting the hook and
17:32
Speaker 1: you can still get three and a half in certain places.
17:35
Speaker 1: I'm with you, though, love the Jackson here. If we
17:39
Speaker 1: can get it three and a half, all the better. Um.
17:42
Speaker 1: Speaking of the team the Seahawks played, the New Orleans
17:47
Speaker 1: Saints are currently it might be the six buddy, it's
17:53
Speaker 1: definitely at five and a half. It's growing up. All
17:56
Speaker 1: the tickets on the Tampa Bay Bucks. Let's ends game.
18:00
Speaker 1: We we both loved it at four and a half.
18:02
Speaker 1: And now what's move in the other way always a
18:04
Speaker 1: little scary because I mean, that's that's not public money
18:07
Speaker 1: moving that number, that's professional money coming and moving that number.
18:10
Speaker 1: But I feel like we're still getting a grade number.
18:13
Speaker 1: I'm still gonna be taking the Saints money line. Thank
18:15
Speaker 1: you for the pros betting this up, giving me more
18:17
Speaker 1: value on the money line. You have to do it, people.
18:20
Speaker 1: This is one of many traps being laid this week.
18:23
Speaker 1: And again, Tommy terrific. We talked about his road, his
18:27
Speaker 1: road and home splits, very big difference of Tommy on
18:30
Speaker 1: the road than at home. So Saints, I get it,
18:33
Speaker 1: they've been bad, but the best thing they can do
18:37
Speaker 1: is kind of move the ball through the air. And
18:40
Speaker 1: we have a team that has linebackers that can't cover
18:42
Speaker 1: running backs, so that's a huge advantage to Kamara and
18:44
Speaker 1: at the wide receiver position against this really banged up
18:48
Speaker 1: buck secondary. You have to like the value you're getting
18:50
Speaker 1: on the Saints here. So even if we're just begging
18:52
Speaker 1: for a back door, the same thing we did with
18:54
Speaker 1: the Eagles and they played the Buccan Years, I'm always
18:56
Speaker 1: gonna feel like we have a chance for that back
18:58
Speaker 1: door just because the Bucking Years. They they are really good,
19:03
Speaker 1: there's no doubt about that, but they aren't kind of
19:06
Speaker 1: like this one of these teams that really has enough
19:10
Speaker 1: on the side of the defense to really be fair
19:12
Speaker 1: by this many points. So last week was a matchup
19:14
Speaker 1: thing with them in the Bears. This week and the
19:16
Speaker 1: same thing. The Saints have always matched up well this
19:18
Speaker 1: Buckaneers team, and I saw some crazy stat could be
19:21
Speaker 1: made up. I could get full by internet here, but
19:23
Speaker 1: it makes sense when you really think about it. Tampa
19:25
Speaker 1: Bay has never been favorite by this many points in
19:28
Speaker 1: the Orleans. Even in the year they won the Super Bowl,
19:31
Speaker 1: they got swept by New Orleans both times. Okay, so
19:34
Speaker 1: it is interesting looking back at the history that the
19:36
Speaker 1: Saints have always played so well. I guess this sucking
19:39
Speaker 1: team at home and they've never been a big underdog
19:41
Speaker 1: like this. So we we have to take these points
19:44
Speaker 1: where we're literally riding with history here. Uh, Simon, of
19:47
Speaker 1: course you can believe it if it's on the internet.
19:50
Speaker 1: Everything on the internet is true. I think that's how
19:52
Speaker 1: it works. Right. Are you ready to get to the
19:54
Speaker 1: game of the week. We're talking about the Dallas Cowboys
19:58
Speaker 1: visiting the Minnesota Vikings. Line has moved up since we
20:05
Speaker 1: talked about it on Tuesday. Everybody loves them cowboys. How
20:10
Speaker 1: about them cowboys? Actually in New Jersey because me and
20:14
Speaker 1: my friends it's removed the other way. We bet it
20:17
Speaker 1: down from two and a half, it's down to one
20:18
Speaker 1: and a half on Fandel now in New Jersey. Wow,
20:21
Speaker 1: mover of lines over here, you know, do you want
20:24
Speaker 1: to listen? You move lines. That's what you do. My job,
20:27
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, line mover the Vikings at two and a
20:32
Speaker 1: half outside of Simon Hunter's jurisdiction. Read your little stats, Chad,
20:37
Speaker 1: go ahead, do your do your stat thing. Hey, this
20:41
Speaker 1: is another prose Joe's game, right. We got eighty percent
20:43
Speaker 1: Jesus Christ eight percent of the bets coming in and
20:47
Speaker 1: the Cowboys about sixty of the money coming in on
20:50
Speaker 1: the Vikings and the fact that in most places this
20:52
Speaker 1: line has moved up. That's something special, right, So UM
20:57
Speaker 1: fast Number one Brandon Anderson, who is a massive Vikings fan.
21:02
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson UH senior writer for The Action Network. UM.
21:09
Speaker 1: He hosts podcast on Action the Action Network Football podcast
21:14
Speaker 1: with the Action Network podcast about the NFL with Raheem Palmer.
21:19
Speaker 1: He is a massive Vikings fan. I love his story
21:22
Speaker 1: every week where he sort of gives his leans for
21:24
Speaker 1: every game. He sent me something after listening to our
21:27
Speaker 1: podcast on Tuesday going into bet Labs, which is that
21:30
Speaker 1: you know super secret system we have that everybody has
21:33
Speaker 1: access to millions and millions of data points. You just
21:36
Speaker 1: got to subscribe, basically, it said Mike Zimmer. For the
21:40
Speaker 1: first part of his career to two thousand nineteen, amazing
21:43
Speaker 1: at Home against the spread, past two seasons, a bit
21:47
Speaker 1: of a money loser. So I think there's a lot
21:50
Speaker 1: of ways to interpret data. There's a lot of ways
21:52
Speaker 1: to interpret that. How do you interpreted, Simon? And I
21:55
Speaker 1: didn't say anything. I'll let you guys post these things
21:57
Speaker 1: in our slack channel. Just wait for this moment. I
22:00
Speaker 1: wonder what happened last year that the home field advantage
22:03
Speaker 1: kind of took a dip from Minnesota? Was it that
22:05
Speaker 1: there was no fans in the stadium? Chad? Do you
22:08
Speaker 1: think that's one of the reasons. Yeah, I do so
22:12
Speaker 1: when I saw you post that's that, I'm with him. Yeah,
22:14
Speaker 1: he's he's kind of slipped her last two years. Just
22:17
Speaker 1: throw it out. The whole reason that stadium is so
22:20
Speaker 1: hard that you can't hear anything. The way they built it,
22:23
Speaker 1: it's one of the loudest stadiums. They got the Viking
22:25
Speaker 1: hornblowing on third downs. It's madness in there when the
22:28
Speaker 1: fans are in there. So yeah, I threw that out
22:31
Speaker 1: just because it doesn't really mean much. This is one
22:33
Speaker 1: of these teams that rely on the fans. It's like
22:35
Speaker 1: the Colts. The Colts need fans and net indoor stadium
22:38
Speaker 1: to be really loud. It's different when they're pumping in
22:41
Speaker 1: loud music or whatever they're doing last year. So yeah,
22:44
Speaker 1: I'm with him. That's a fair criticism to say he's
22:47
Speaker 1: he slipped the last two years with the home field advantage.
22:50
Speaker 1: Well this year it's been back to what it was.
22:52
Speaker 1: They had the Seahawks at home, they killed him, they
22:55
Speaker 1: blew them up. So that's that's a fair argument. But
22:58
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna stick to what I believe in
23:00
Speaker 1: with this With this Vikings team, and we've seen it
23:02
Speaker 1: time and time again. Dallas is really good. They're incredible.
23:07
Speaker 1: There's a reason the public is coming in so heavy
23:09
Speaker 1: on this number, but they're not looking at my little
23:12
Speaker 1: numbers where Doc hasn't been pressured that much. Now he's
23:15
Speaker 1: going up against the team of the Vikings that want
23:16
Speaker 1: to highest pressure rates in all football. Okay, so they
23:19
Speaker 1: get after the quarterback, they might not get home, they
23:21
Speaker 1: might not get the sacks. They're moving the quarterbacks off
23:24
Speaker 1: their spots and that is great. Mobile it's coming off
23:27
Speaker 1: a calf injury that he was literally in a walking
23:30
Speaker 1: boot during their bye week. So just looking at it
23:33
Speaker 1: on paper, I understand what these people are saying, why
23:36
Speaker 1: they want to just take Dallas and they're six and
23:37
Speaker 1: oh against the spread. I can't fault them for that.
23:40
Speaker 1: I talk at the time. My my main goal is
23:42
Speaker 1: to find where is there gonna be regression? Where is
23:45
Speaker 1: it going to these teams gonna come back to the
23:47
Speaker 1: meeting because they're not going seventeen and against the spread.
23:50
Speaker 1: It's never happened. I mean, a great year for them
23:52
Speaker 1: be eleven and six or something like that against the spread.
23:55
Speaker 1: That's an incredible season. So they're gonna trip up some places.
23:59
Speaker 1: This is just a really really good spot for this
24:02
Speaker 1: Kings team, coming off of by at home. Everyone's loving
24:05
Speaker 1: this Dallas team. The Dallas teams feeling themselves. They get
24:09
Speaker 1: humbled by this Flkings team. And again this is gonna
24:12
Speaker 1: come down to matchups. We'll see what's gonna happen here.
24:15
Speaker 1: You have to sense regression for this Dallas defense. They're
24:17
Speaker 1: not gonna have pick sixes every other game for touchdowns.
24:20
Speaker 1: It's just not feasible. So I do think you're getting
24:23
Speaker 1: good value still if you can get Minnesota plus two
24:25
Speaker 1: and a half, take that number of throwing a teaser,
24:27
Speaker 1: that's just a really good number. Two Have you made
24:30
Speaker 1: all my points from a how I set you up
24:36
Speaker 1: knowing that that stat from last year, from from from
24:40
Speaker 1: two past two years included a year at home where
24:44
Speaker 1: there are no fans in the stands and there was
24:45
Speaker 1: no home field advantage, and included a year the past
24:49
Speaker 1: this season and last season, so two seasons in which
24:52
Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer has kind of been rebuilding the defense on
24:54
Speaker 1: the fly. They played better last three weeks, totally, man,
24:57
Speaker 1: look at that, Look at it this way, look at
24:59
Speaker 1: it this way. It turns out the Vikings are what
25:01
Speaker 1: there's three and three. Two of their losses to the
25:03
Speaker 1: Cardinals and the Bengals in flukey circumstances in which they
25:06
Speaker 1: could have won. We always talk about like, look at
25:09
Speaker 1: the little place. We talked about it last week with
25:12
Speaker 1: the Ravens. The Ravens were a couple of little fluky
25:14
Speaker 1: plays away from being a five team, not a team
25:17
Speaker 1: that was leading the a f C North. And that's
25:19
Speaker 1: why we like the Bengals. Um the Chargers were flukey
25:24
Speaker 1: fourth down conversions away from not looking as dominant as
25:27
Speaker 1: they have been. That's the way, like, that's why we
25:29
Speaker 1: liked the Ravens against the Charges last week. It turns
25:32
Speaker 1: out the Vikings have lost to the two best teams
25:35
Speaker 1: in the NFL potentially in the Bengals and the Cardinals
25:38
Speaker 1: and the Browns. One that's they're only lost at home.
25:41
Speaker 1: I think they lost four to seven. Yes, he started
25:44
Speaker 1: the game, they drove the field for a touchdown, and
25:46
Speaker 1: then Kirk Kirk did like that's the only fear with
25:48
Speaker 1: this game. And you're betting on Kirk where he might
25:50
Speaker 1: open the game up with the seven points and then
25:52
Speaker 1: do nothing for three and a half quarters. So that
25:55
Speaker 1: is always the fear. But you have to believe in
25:56
Speaker 1: this defense. And like you just said, Zama at home,
25:59
Speaker 1: I just have to keep riding that trend. Bottom line,
26:01
Speaker 1: we love the Vikings here. Smash Smash is that you
26:10
Speaker 1: was my Viking song? Oh my god? Did you like it? She? Yeah,
26:16
Speaker 1: that was That was intimidating Minnesota Vikings. And it's one
26:24
Speaker 1: of those things. Look at you, look at you. And
26:32
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28:27
Speaker 1: Now let's get back to the show. I think we
28:30
Speaker 1: do have to make this next one our big balls better.
28:35
Speaker 1: The week Giants visit in the Chiefs plus ten get
28:42
Speaker 1: a little flak from the wise guys on this and
28:45
Speaker 1: what they're saying. I get. The only time the Chiefs
28:47
Speaker 1: have looked really good at the dominant this year is
28:49
Speaker 1: playing in the NFC East. They beat the crap out
28:51
Speaker 1: of Washington, They beat the crap out of the Eagles.
28:53
Speaker 1: That's fair. Now they're getting this Giants team after a
28:56
Speaker 1: big one at home. That's just so many points, so
28:59
Speaker 1: many points for such a bad defense, and we've seen it.
29:02
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones has been running the ball more. The Chiefs
29:04
Speaker 1: team is bad against running quarterbacks. We saw them are
29:07
Speaker 1: tear them up. Obviously, Daniel Jones isn't anything compartable lamar,
29:11
Speaker 1: but he's slippery like that that read option he does
29:13
Speaker 1: when he gets outside that tackle on the left or
29:16
Speaker 1: the right. Once he gets out there into space, he's
29:18
Speaker 1: pretty quick. So ten points. Again, I'm not gonna make
29:23
Speaker 1: a big deal of it because it's like I could
29:25
Speaker 1: look like an idiot come next week when they lose
29:27
Speaker 1: by twenty. But something ay right with this Chiefs team.
29:30
Speaker 1: So I I liked it at ten and a half,
29:33
Speaker 1: still like it at ten. As only the stays above
29:35
Speaker 1: the nine, I'm happy to take this number. I did
29:38
Speaker 1: have it rated at nine, So yeah, it's it's gonna
29:42
Speaker 1: be weird because this is definitely probably gonna be our
29:44
Speaker 1: survivor picking the Chiefs like this is the only real
29:46
Speaker 1: week you can use them left. But man, this is uh,
29:50
Speaker 1: this is a literally a must win game for this
29:52
Speaker 1: Chiefs team. We can all look like idiots every week.
29:56
Speaker 1: That's just the way of my lefe. Yeah, we can
29:58
Speaker 1: look like idiots every day in front of everybody, front
30:01
Speaker 1: of the people. We love. It's just part of life
30:04
Speaker 1: to me. We are we are looking at six games
30:07
Speaker 1: that we will narrow down to five. Four Sunday Colts, Jags, Saints, Vikings, Chargers, Giants,
30:17
Speaker 1: and like, you know, I like to have at least
30:19
Speaker 1: one favorite in there, so we'll try to force one
30:21
Speaker 1: in there. It is a Charger, Charger. The Chargers are
30:23
Speaker 1: a favorite. That's that's what we end up on. So
30:26
Speaker 1: be it, but that that could change obviously comes some day.
30:29
Speaker 1: I love this lineup, like I felt so confident coming
30:32
Speaker 1: into you know. I like to do my Thursdays and
30:34
Speaker 1: get up early. Well I don't get up early, but
30:38
Speaker 1: I am up at my normal time, but I cleared
30:41
Speaker 1: my schedule in those first two hours of the day.
30:44
Speaker 1: I'm like eight to ten. I'm just focused on our
30:47
Speaker 1: picks research deep dive. I finished my work this morning
30:52
Speaker 1: and thought, I got four games that I know I love,
30:56
Speaker 1: and Chargers and Giants. We just added I really love
30:59
Speaker 1: the Chargers right now too. Yeah, we need a five
31:02
Speaker 1: and o a week. We're so close. We're so close, dude,
31:05
Speaker 1: you just gotta hang out. We just gotta hang out.
31:08
Speaker 1: We gotta keep keep grinding. We're gonna get there. Three
31:11
Speaker 1: and two the past two weeks, the Survivor Pool pick
31:14
Speaker 1: of the week. Let's talk about Survivor for a second,
31:23
Speaker 1: because you said Chiefs the other the other games I
31:26
Speaker 1: was thinking about obviously the Bills. Um, uh, those were
31:31
Speaker 1: two that I was that I was deeply considering. I
31:34
Speaker 1: also for a minute, for a minute, I thought about
31:37
Speaker 1: the Chargers. No, that's that's crazy. The Bills. One um
31:41
Speaker 1: pulled the Bill schedule right now. I think we're having
31:43
Speaker 1: a couple opportunities with them. So listen, this Bills have
31:47
Speaker 1: Miami this week. Next week they're at the Jaguars, Then
31:50
Speaker 1: they're at the Jets, So the two different weeks we'll
31:53
Speaker 1: beout taking there. Unfortunately, the end of the season with
31:56
Speaker 1: the Jets at home, so if they're locked up there
32:00
Speaker 1: and see by then they might just be sitting guys.
32:02
Speaker 1: We might not be able to use them that final week.
32:04
Speaker 1: So it's looking like we need to use them either
32:06
Speaker 1: next week or the week after. Where we talked about
32:09
Speaker 1: this Kansas City Chiefs team, they're in a hard division,
32:13
Speaker 1: Like obviously the easiest matchup they'll have is with Denver.
32:17
Speaker 1: I don't know, it's always little sketchy with them in Denver,
32:19
Speaker 1: so pull up their schedule right now. They have the
32:21
Speaker 1: Giants this week, then they go Green Bay Vegas, Dallas
32:25
Speaker 1: by week Denver Vegas. Yeah, all these games are just tough.
32:29
Speaker 1: So this is it. We probably had to take the
32:32
Speaker 1: Chiefs this week. This is literally the only easy matchup
32:34
Speaker 1: for them for pretty much the rest of the year.
32:36
Speaker 1: All right, well we'll go with the Chiefs then. And
32:38
Speaker 1: that's the scariest part is I feel like everyone's gonna
32:40
Speaker 1: take this Chiefs and this is like such a week.
32:42
Speaker 1: That's do I looked it up. We actually have a thousand,
32:45
Speaker 1: five hundred people left in our contest. Survivor not bad again.
32:49
Speaker 1: First place gets a million dollars. We're going for it,
32:52
Speaker 1: and we're going for it. So I am worried because
32:55
Speaker 1: I know everyone's gonna be taking the Chiefs, but it
32:57
Speaker 1: just we have no other option. This is such a
33:00
Speaker 1: I think everyone's going to take the Bills, you think so, yeah, yeah,
33:03
Speaker 1: that that could happen. Actually, I wouldn't hate that either,
33:06
Speaker 1: because we just talked about it that of all the
33:08
Speaker 1: teams that could pull up the upset again, Houston maybe
33:11
Speaker 1: they could with if Tarag's back, that could be their
33:13
Speaker 1: big thing, but I don't know. It's I'm cool with
33:17
Speaker 1: saving the bills for another week or two from Let's
33:19
Speaker 1: go with the Chiefs, all right, let's talk about our
33:21
Speaker 1: money line round robin play. Yeah, I can throw one out.
33:25
Speaker 1: So if you would not listen to me last week,
33:28
Speaker 1: or no, if you listen to me on the show,
33:29
Speaker 1: you had the Colts in there with the Bengals, with Tennessee,
33:32
Speaker 1: you had a good, good week. Unfortunately, was an idiot
33:36
Speaker 1: and I didn't do that. So this week going back
33:39
Speaker 1: to the well we we love home dogs, no, no surprise,
33:44
Speaker 1: so the culture no longer and underdogs. I won't throw
33:46
Speaker 1: them in there anymore. I did have them in there
33:48
Speaker 1: earlier in the week. If you want to ride with
33:51
Speaker 1: I'm still in the Packers tonight, still in the Packers
33:53
Speaker 1: plus six and a half, still in their money line tonight.
33:56
Speaker 1: If anyone wants to ride with that one. If not,
33:58
Speaker 1: we could throw it out. Let's go through like the
34:00
Speaker 1: Jaguars on the money line, like the Saints on the
34:03
Speaker 1: money line, like the Vikings on the money line. I
34:06
Speaker 1: am gonna wait and see if it's Trod Taylor Pcent
34:10
Speaker 1: will have the Texans in on my money line. Parlay again.
34:13
Speaker 1: Wait and see, he just came back to practice today.
34:16
Speaker 1: He is a difference maker for that offense and round
34:20
Speaker 1: it out with some other ugly dogs. People don't like it,
34:24
Speaker 1: but I'm still gonna take the Panthers money line. It's
34:27
Speaker 1: I just have to do it against the Falcons um
34:30
Speaker 1: and you know, if they're looking for a six one
34:32
Speaker 1: to throw in there, don't hate, don't hate the football team.
34:35
Speaker 1: They've they've been unlucky last couple of weeks. It feels
34:38
Speaker 1: like all the teams that really do for a win
34:40
Speaker 1: against Tobracos team that just seems like they're completely falling apart.
34:43
Speaker 1: With Eddy Bridgewater being banged up, it just does not
34:46
Speaker 1: see him right over there. And I think Bond Miller
34:48
Speaker 1: is out as well for this game. So if you're
34:50
Speaker 1: looking for a six one to throw in, you don't
34:52
Speaker 1: want to put Green Bay in tonight. Got's not gonna
34:54
Speaker 1: issue taking Washington in this, all right, Saints, Vike's Jags, Panthers,
35:00
Speaker 1: Washington football team for the money line parlay just gross,
35:06
Speaker 1: that's terrible. I don't know that I hit the three
35:08
Speaker 1: out of four, three out of seven weeks though, So
35:11
Speaker 1: it's it's been a nice run for us with these
35:13
Speaker 1: all right, we've done it. We've never done the slate.
35:15
Speaker 1: We've gotten a down to about six that will choose
35:18
Speaker 1: five from on Sunday. We've talked about Survivor Go Chiefs.
35:21
Speaker 1: We've talked about moneyline Parlor. We've meet our big balls
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Speaker 1: better the week we covered the sharp Calls. I think
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Speaker 1: we nailed it. I think we totally nailed everything. We
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Speaker 1: want to do today and don't forget. We update everything
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Speaker 1: on Sunday morning and we do a show eleven am.
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Speaker 1: Convinced me where we will run through all the games
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Speaker 1: and talked about the say things really change. You are
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Speaker 1: such a media professional. I would have forgotten all of
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Speaker 1: that you did. You did, I noticed totally we forgot it.
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Speaker 1: Well done, Simon Hunter. This has been the favorites from
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Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network. I'm Chatmillman, He's Simon Hunter. Join
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Speaker 1: us Sunday morning at Action Network HQ eleven a m Eastern.
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Speaker 1: All the things you need to get ready for the day,
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Speaker 1: none of the freaking fluff, nothing sentimental. Just watch it
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Speaker 1: and get smarter by listening to us. Download the podcast
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Speaker 1: from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get podcasts. Don't forget
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