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Earthquake Warning: The Seconds That Could Save Your Life · The Alerting Authority

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: When an earthquake strikes, sometimes just a few seconds of warning can save a life.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: Today, we're going back into the Alerting Authority archives for an early conversation about earthquake early warnings, how they work, why those precious seconds matter, and how effective alerts can give people time to take action.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: The technology continues to evolve, but the mission has not changed.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Get the right warning to the right people at the right time.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Here's our original conversation on earthquake early warnings.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_02: Hi, I'm Jeanette Sutton.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_01: And I am Eddie Bertola.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_02: And we welcome you to another episode of the Alerting Authority.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_02: And as always, we encourage you to subscribe, follow, listen, and most importantly, participate in these podcasts.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_02: We want your questions, concerns, ideas, problems, pain points, and your success stories so we as alerting authorities can better do our jobs and make our communities safer.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: As many of you know, I am from California.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: I was uh born and raised there.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: I recently moved to Arkansas.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um I loved being in California.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: I loved my work there with the California Highway Patrol and doing the different things I got to do.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um and I love being out in Arkansas.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_01: One thing in Arkansas is I'm getting used to tornadoes, right?
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: Didn't have to deal with that.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: But in California, we had earthquakes.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: And I feel like we had quite a few to the point where I think I was near DC when they had the earthquake on the eastern side of the United States.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know, did you feel that earthquake?
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: Were you impacted?
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think I was here yet.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_02: Um, that was the one where it was the uh the Washington monument shook and there was some damage to the top of the monument.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_01: I guess I it's funny.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: I was I think I was consulting still at the time with iPaws.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: And I I heard people talk about it.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: They're just like, oh, you know, we had this earthquake, and I I remember reading about it, going like it's almost that that crocodile dundee, like, that's not a knife, where I was like, oh, that's not an earthquake.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: Like, really?
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: That that's what you guys are talking about.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but for everybody on the eastern side of the United States, it was a really big deal.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um, with that said, in California, there are definitely earthquakes, but there is a really cool feature that has come out over the last few years and become uh more commonplace.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: It was definitely socialized very well, and that is the USGS um, well, I say their ability to provide alerts and information about earthquakes in advance.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know, Jeanette, do you have any insider knowledge on this program or kind of what it does?
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_02: I do.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_02: I want to preface it by saying I also grew up in California, uh, stuff in California.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_02: So I have lived through some of those big shaking experiences, which are quite scary, um, especially if you don't know what's happening and you feel everything moving around you.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_02: It's it's a very unusual feeling.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_02: Um, some people describe it as being disorienting.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_02: You feel like you are having a little bit of vertigo until you recognize that things around you are moving as well as your inner ear.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_02: It the the parts about um earthquakes that are really the most dangerous most of the time are things falling off of walls or off of um high places.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_02: And so the safest place you can be in an earthquake, and I know this from having grown up in California, is underneath a table or a secure piece of furniture that protects you from things that are falling off of the walls.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_02: And that is ingrained in my head because we used to do um earthquake drills when I was uh a kid in Southern California.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_02: But more recently, the USGS with collaborators created something called Shake Alert.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_02: And ShakeAlert is um it's a system of monitors up and down California, Oregon, and Washington that is uh detecting the motion of the ground.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_02: Um there are P waves and S waves, and it's detecting the earliest motion and very quickly modeling the magnitude and the direction of the movement of the earth so that once they've modeled that information and can identify where the shaking is going to be felt and how severe it might be, they can issue a warning.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_02: And those messages are issued as shake alert powered warnings, earthquake early warnings, and they trigger apps and the wireless emergency alert system.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_02: So people in California and Oregon and Washington can receive a Wii A when the shaking is stronger than 4.5 magnitude.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_02: They can also receive a message through the My Shake app, which was developed by Berkeley, um, Cal Berkeley.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_02: And um, so they receive a different kind of message through that app.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_02: And then um the Google Android system has also tapped into um the My Shake or the Shake Alert system to receive that information, which will trigger people's cell phones if you have an Android device.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so you can receive an earthquake early warning that way.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_02: And there are other apps that are also plugged into uh ShakeAlert, um, such as systems that will open the bay doors for fire departments, because um sometimes fire doors will be closed and not opened when there's severe shaking.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_02: Um, would stop trains, stop the BART system in uh California or the San Francisco Bay Area, um, stop elevators so they don't stop in between floors and people get trapped.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_02: So it triggers a lot of really useful um infrastructure and communications um to people who are at great risk.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_02: That's a long way of answering your question, but uh with my with my limited knowledge of how the system works, I think that you ever I have to say this is one of those.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna take a break, and I'm just gonna do a little comment to say if you did not know Jeanette is incredibly smart, there you go.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_01: That is your thing.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: I did not give her a script.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: This is her just talking about what she knows about it.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_01: And she is this this is why she's here.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_01: Um, she knows this stuff.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: And as as you were talking, I'm just thinking to myself, I'm like, yes, yes, like that's it.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: Perfect.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_01: It was that's amazing.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_01: Have I told you you're smart?
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_02: Uh thanks.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_02: Well, um, I have been funded by the U.S.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_02: Geological Survey to do research on Shake Alert for a couple of different projects.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_02: Once when I was at the University of Kentucky in the communication department, we did some experiments where we tested people's ability to take action in response to the earthquake early warning messages.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_02: Um, really fascinating to do that in a lab.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and then uh more recently, um, doing research on how people um uh understand um hmm, what was the second one?
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_02: I've received three rounds of funding from USGS, and sometimes it gets a little confusing.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_02: I'll just say the most recent one was on um over alerting, which we can talk about for hours.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and it's one of those, and if someone is available to give you round four of research, you're like, hey, you know.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: Um but like honestly, with all that said, there's a lot of good information.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: And one thing that we've talked about in other episodes, we'll talk about more is jargon.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: And if you just say shake alert, well, there's a lot of people that may have different ideas on what that is.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but what you gave right there is very comprehensive and it explains really what it is and probably why there's been a lot of buy-in in California for people wanting to subscribe to the the My Shake app that Cal Berkeley did.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: And just there's, you know, it it definitely touches a lot of people because earthquakes, if you have never been in one, um, they can be very, very scary.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_01: Um, especially if you are in a building that's tall or around a building that's tall.
• 8:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I mean, really, you could be in many places, and it's it's just a very unsettling feeling because you there's no prep time, really.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_02: Not at all.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_02: And that's one of the really amazing things when I think of the earthquake early warning system that has been created by USGS.
• 9:10
  SPEAKER_02: I think of this as just some of the most amazing technology.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_02: They are monitoring and detecting and modeling within fractions of a second so that people who are some distance away from the epicenter of the shaking can receive up to 30 seconds or more of time before the shaking actually arrives.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_02: The closer you are to the epicenter, the less likely you're going to have a significant amount of time to receive that message, interpret it, and take action.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_02: Um and some people won't receive a message at all because they are right on top of the state, the shaking where it starts.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_02: Um and so each of those different uh populations that are receiving those messages at different points in time have they need different levels of public education ahead of time so they know how to act when they receive that message.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_02: But you know, when we look across the United States, other parts of the country do not have shake alert.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_02: The investment, uh financial investment has been made in the areas that are the most seismologically active.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but we do have other parts of the country that also have some significant risk.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_02: In the center of the United States, around Memphis, Tennessee, significant risk.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_02: Um, unlikely to happen, but if it did happen, it would be pretty devastating.
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_02: Um, we also know that in places like uh Oklahoma, there's no um uh uh induced uh earthquakes due to the um the drilling and the return of the wastewater into the ground, um, which causes earthquake, um, which is a newer phenomenon.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_02: Um and of course, there's there's no earthquake detection monitoring activity going on there.
• 11:03
  SPEAKER_01: Well, you just literally pinpointed Oklahoma and then Memphis, Tennessee, and I live right in between those two places.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_01: Like draw a line, and I'm I'm right there.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_01: So now I now I'm interested even more because maybe I need it where I am with all the different things that are happening.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_02: It's it's an incredibly expensive system, not just to to put all of the the um detection equipment into the ground, but then the ongoing monitoring of everything.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_02: Um and uh another fun fact because I I got to spend some time talking with the the creators of the Google system, they are using the phone's seismometers within the phones to detect the initial shaking.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and then as enough phones pick up the movement of the earth, they can initiate um an alert to those who are farther away.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_02: And so your Android phones that are operating in other countries are also getting earthquake early warnings.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 12:09
  SPEAKER_01: So are you are you plugging Android phones?
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_01: Is that what you're doing?
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_02: Or just I I'm not.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_02: I just find it just fascinating that the technology is there.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and people are so creative in figuring out how to develop things that are really useful to the safety of humans.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_02: And I just I applaud, you know, the companies that do this corporate social responsibility activity.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_02: Like Google doesn't make any money off of doing earthquake early warnings, but they invested the time and the energy, and you know, they could be saving lives with their alerts, which I think is just amazing.
• 12:54
  SPEAKER_01: So good job, Google, and let's step it up, Apple.
• 12:57
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: I have an iPhone, help save me, Apple.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_01: Do what, do what they're doing.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um so what one thing I wanted to talk about was there was a earthquake warning that went out, or a shake alert that went out recently in California.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_01: This caused a little bit of stir.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: Um, because you know, was there an earthquake or was there not?
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, there were discussion.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_01: And and I don't necessarily want to get into the, hey, it was sent out and it was false and all these different things, but it it was sent out, and there are different ways that it was sent out.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: And I want to take this time with with you and with everybody listening to talk about let's say it was an errand alert, it wasn't true.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: What does it look like?
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_01: What's the what should we do in that situation to let people know that there is not a threat?
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: But if you can, I I'm gonna basically put on the screen the uh script or what was sent out through the wireless emergency alert.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: You said it very well.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_01: There were multiple um dissemination methods for this information.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_01: And we'll we'll talk about the WIA first, and then we can move into the other ones.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm gonna throw it on the screen here.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: See how we'll see how it looks, right?
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, and if I need to make it any bigger so we can read it, I will do that right now.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: So this information is taken straight from um the PBS Warren site, and you can look it up.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_01: It's from December 4th, and um you know, we have you know when it was sent and the information.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: The reason that it has a later time was because of updates.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: But this is the the message.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_01: So for 90 and 360 character messages, um it says earthquake detected, exclamation point, drop, cover, hold on, protect yourself, hyphen USGS shake alert.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um and I don't think we talked about this in the beginning, but um this doesn't come from a person.
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_01: Right?
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: It does not this is done through that system that you were talking about.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_01: Um there's not an alert originator that is sitting there at a computer typing this out.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_01: Um the time elements involved are so short that it is done.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, do we get into the AI debate?
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_01: Do is it just the software?
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_01: What are your thoughts?
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_02: Uh perhaps there's some AI happening in there.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but it's the the systems are incredibly fast.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_02: And this very brief message is issued um literally within seconds, um, giving people in some cases those few seconds that they need to take action.
• 15:56
  SPEAKER_02: And in some cases it can be much longer.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_02: Um and and the message is is really, really brief.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: Well, how much time do you have to actually look at the message and read it, right?
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: We're talking seconds.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it could be just a second or two or three.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_02: Um but you know, like any message that gives you these kinds of instructions that are very, very brief and don't provide a lot of description about how to do it, you do need to have a little bit of education ahead of time to understand that drop means drop to the ground because the earth is moving and you will fall if you try to walk while the earth is shaking.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_02: I really seriously, it's like a wave underneath your feet.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_02: It's very difficult to walk.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_02: Um, cover means to cover your head and neck so you get underneath a sturdy table or other piece of furniture and protect your yourself from things falling on you.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_02: And um, and if you can't because you're in a a wheelchair or in a bed, then you put something over your head and neck so you cover yourself.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_02: And then hold on means to hold on to that furniture so that it doesn't move away from you.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_02: You're bracing yourself.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and uh unfortunately, some people did um decipher hold on as like mentally brace yourself, hold on, wait.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_02: You know, it's it's not about holding on to the furniture.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_02: It's it's like a more of a consciousness of being aware of it, and um, which is actually what most people do is they just stop and they wait.
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_02: So the following of those instructions of dropping and covering and holding on, it's one of the reasons that um California and and other parts of the around the world participate in something called the the the shakeout drill, which is held every fall of to practice how to do these things, uh, the drop, cover, and hold on.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_02: And um it, you know, there's had a lot of uptake around the world, but it really requires practice to know exactly what to do when you receive one of those messages.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and it's important for anybody, if if you don't live in this part of the United States, that's okay.
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: You have natural disasters or other hazards that can happen that that may be more frequent in your specific geography.
• 18:28
  SPEAKER_01: And just like people practice for this, you need to practice for that particular hazard, you know, that is uh that has a greater likelihood of hitting where you are.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: Um, just as Jeanette said, I remember going through these drills.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_01: It was a part of growing up.
• 18:44
  SPEAKER_01: And it happened with enough frequency that I felt like I actually could respond and understood what was being asked.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um and I'm grateful that you know the messages in these circumstances are very short, they're to the point, because I just need to read it and then move forward.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_01: Now, again, this is the Wii A, um, just one of the ways.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_01: And this is, I'm gonna move the picture here.
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: Um what you're looking at right now, if you're watching this on YouTube, is it's a picture of the state of California, and then it has two different polygons that are right next to each other.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_01: And one polygon, there they're right along the state line on the eastern side of the Sierra Nevada, and then the second one is a little bit further west, but still essentially a curve.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_01: And what this one illustrates is, and there were two separate messages that um were activated.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_01: The first one was to the area closest to the epicenter, and the one that was just within a few seconds after was the second layer a little further away.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: And so both of these areas received that wireless emergency alert.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_01: And it's just an example.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_01: Again, if you are listening on the radio, I would encourage you please um look at PBS Warren to see how this is done and how they layer their delivery.
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um and so it's just good information.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: Any thoughts on that?
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_02: It again is it's amazing to me that we have the technology to be able to do this within moments of modeling potential areas of impact or potential areas that could be experiencing shaking.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and it's this these areas that received this these alerts is quite extensive.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_02: There was a very large population that was within the polygon that was drawn.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but we also know from reports from the public afterwards that some people, as far as the Bay Area, received the alert.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_02: And even down in Santa Cruz and up in Fresno, so it it traveled well beyond the boundaries of the polygon.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and a lot of people were made aware of this potential shaking event.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and which is a whole other topic that I hope we get to in a different podcast is um the wireless emergency alert system, you can set up a polygon to restrict who receives it, right?
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_01: To outline this is the area I want to send it to.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: It works perfectly in theory.
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: Right?
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_01: In the real world, there are a lot of different um variables that play into how effective those polygons are.
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: And depending on cell towers, depending on terrain and and how those cell towers are working, that area that you have selected as your polygon may not be as true as what is actually used.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so it's one of those things, according to the latest rules for the wireless emergency alert and guidelines, um, we're supposed to be Within one tenth of a mile of those lines to have that little buffer zone.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_01: But in my experience, it has gone well beyond a different time.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_01: And often that's just because there are a lot of hands in the cookie jar, if you will.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_01: There are so many stakeholders that are a part of this to make it work that if one of those different stakeholders is having an issue or makes an adjustment or whatever it might be, the whole thing is impacted.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_01: So again, in theory, that's exactly, you know, the map that you see is exactly where it was supposed to be.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_01: But in reality, it definitely expands beyond that.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: So this is the wireless emergency alert, though.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: This this was sent out.
• 22:44
  SPEAKER_01: Um and so everybody prepared.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: With that said, there was another one, and I'll pull it up right here.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_01: Um you mentioned the Shake Alert app that was created by Cal Berkeley and apparently has a really big following, which is fantastic.
• 23:00
  SPEAKER_01: Um, this is considered an opt-in system.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_01: This is something someone has to download.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: They have to put, you know, where they live.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_01: This is, you know, if you want them to know your location, you're giving information to request a notification.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_01: That's different than that wireless emergency alert, right?
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_01: When you hit that button, we we send it out to all devices or WIA capable devices within that certain geographic area that we've targeted, unless people have opted out.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so it is a pretty high um rate of people receiving it.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_01: And then you have this again, the opt-in.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_01: One thing that is different is you actually have a lot of people that have it.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_01: There are so many companies out there that sell opt-in notification systems.
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_01: And when they push it out to a city or a community, the opt-in rates are anywhere from, you know, 6%, I've seen a 3%, up to about a 17% as some of the averages.
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: And so you're never quite sure who's going to get it.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: With the Shake Alert, and I don't know if it was Cal Berkeley that that led this part as well, um, but I know there's been multiple municipalities and other government entities that that are pushing this for notifications.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: So a lot of people have it.
• 24:21
  SPEAKER_02: And yeah, so this is the Cal Berkeley app is called My Shake.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_02: And there's so many different names.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so I just want to make sure that we we clarify a little bit because the USGS system is called Shake Alert.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_02: And that's the monitoring and detection system that pushes out the information for Wii's to issue the wireless emergency alerts and for MyShake to issue their alert through their opt-in system.
• 24:52
  SPEAKER_02: So, and there are other apps that have other similar names.
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and and it's easy to get them confused.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_01: No, and thank you for that clarification.
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_01: This, what you're looking at on the screen, is what went out in the My Shake app.
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_01: And it went out to um individuals that lived within the area that they prescribed.
• 25:15
  SPEAKER_01: And this is um actually a screenshot of someone who got it in the Bay Area of California.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're not familiar with the area, think San Francisco, the city, and there's the bay, it's all the communities around the bay.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_01: Um and it says earthquake, drop, cover, hold.
• 25:32
  SPEAKER_01: And again, this message was not clicked, and so it's just a screenshot of what appears.
• 25:39
  SPEAKER_01: Then it says Mag, I guess for magnitude 5.9 EQ earthquake in Lyon County, Nevada, USA, on 12.4, 2025, at 8.06 a.m.
• 25:53
  SPEAKER_01: Pacific Standard Time.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_02: And this one provides more information.
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously, they're giving you the initial um, the initial estimated uh magnitude of 5.9, which is a pretty, pretty good size earthquake.
• 26:07
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and it also tells where the epicenter is um uh in in Nevada.
• 26:14
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know the details of how MyShake intersects with the Shake Alert data and what additional uh modeling is taking place that allows them to connect all of that information together.
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but it does provide a little bit more information for people who are receiving that message.
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_02: So if you are in San Francisco and you see that the epicenter is in Lyon County, Nevada, and you put in from you put all the clues together quickly enough, you might say, well, that's pretty far away.
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think I'm gonna feel this.
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_02: Or you receive the message in if you've been trained to drop cover and hold on, then you'll take that action.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, 100%.
• 26:54
  SPEAKER_01: And and again, with this podcast today, I mean, we're talking about different ways that it went out.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_01: The part I want to focus on now is I think that that key element.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: So this earthquake, come to find out, actually never happened.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_01: This particular one.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_01: And and I'm not gonna get into you know all the whys because I think they're still doing investigations and everything else.
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_01: But the point is that it was a false alarm.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: The question is then, how do you let your community know that there is no longer a threat and that they can resume everything, you know, as normal?
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_01: And so the the last screen I want to share is what the USGS Shake Alert, so that program, not the app, right?
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_01: The program pushed out this on Twitter.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: And it it basically says, you know, ShakeAlert confirms that the earthquake alerts that were delivered on, um, I'm sorry, delivered at 8.06 a.m.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_01: are canceled.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_01: There was no M, so magnitude 5.9 earthquake near Carson City, Nevada.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: We're currently looking into why the alerts are issued or were issued.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_01: We'll provide more information when we learn more, and then it um tags a few different organizations.
• 28:15
  SPEAKER_01: Um but the time element, Jeanette, what are your thoughts on this?
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: Because I think we can go into another couple examples.
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_01: So it was an 806 activation or roundabout, and then this is the notification that no, you're okay.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_02: Well, the screenshot that you have says 1045 a.m.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_02: And I don't know if that was when the sh the the message was posted to X at 1045 a.m., which was well over two hours after the initial earthquake alert, or if that was the time when you got the screenshot, when you took the screenshot.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_02: Regardless, if it was I just got the screenshot about an hour ago.
• 29:03
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_02: So if this was um issued at 10 45 a.m., that was a that was quite a while after the initial message.
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um I think we have some historical events that we can call upon to give us some insight into what people need and are looking for when they experience a false alert and they don't understand how the system works, or they're frankly terrified of the threat that they've just been warned about.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and I think the one in all of my research on alerts and warnings, the most memorable warning, the most memorable wireless emergency alert that people always remind me of, they just have to say one word.
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_02: They say, Hawaii, because that is the one that really opened people's eyes to the power of iPAUS.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_02: And especially when it was perceived as being um totally real to those people who were on the ground in Hawaii and just incredibly dangerous um when it's not managed in a way that continues to keep public trust.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_01: No, and and for those that may not know about that one, it was a ballistic missile notification that and it really said a ballistic missile was inbound to Hawaii and to take shelter.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_01: The line that was put in there that I think was the most impactful was it said, you know, this is not a drill.
• 30:49
  SPEAKER_01: And it's almost one of those if you were in Hawaii at that time, you will remember that moment, I think, for the rest of your life.
• 30:58
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I have talked to many people who were there.
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I've talked to the people responsible for the message.
• 31:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um it it is it is lasting.
• 31:07
  SPEAKER_01: Um and I, again, I think it has provided us with so much um good since then because we're talking about this more.
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_01: We've developed the program more.
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it's there's more funding, um, there's more research that has been done.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_01: And and so while it was not a good incident, um, I believe that there's been a lot of benefits that have come from it.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_01: And one of the things that was a big part of it was and I'm guessing, I believe it's around 40 minutes or so from the time the message went out in Hawaii until the time that someone from the source, right?
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_01: Not just people were talking about it, essentially said, No, you're okay.
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_01: There is no missile.
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_01: Is that about right?
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_02: Mm-hmm.
• 31:56
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_02: Um we we did research on that too.
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_02: Um working with my uh my colleague who's now the University of Delaware, um, Sarah DeYoung was the first author on a on a paper that we did where we um we asked people who experienced who lived through that alert what it was like.
• 32:16
  SPEAKER_02: And they talked about how for 38 minutes, those who really believed that it was an a live, inbound missile, um, they were terrified.
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_02: And it took all that time for them before they received that second message that said that it was a false alert.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and I can't remember the actual language if it said false alert.
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but essentially saying that there was no missile inbound.
• 32:49
  SPEAKER_02: And those who were spending their last moments of what they believed were their lives, um, they could finally breathe a sigh of relief because the they had certainty that they were going to live um past those moments that they thought they had left.
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and I I appreciate you mentioning that it took that long from the source for the source to give out the information.
• 33:15
  SPEAKER_01: There were narratives popping up all around of people saying, well, it's probably not true.
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_01: And but when you get this message, this type of alert from a credible source, you need that source to come back and tell you, okay, there is no hazard or there there is no danger.
• 33:32
  SPEAKER_01: Um and that's what took a while.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 33:37
  SPEAKER_02: And, you know, people were posting on X.
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_02: In fact, the one of the senators, maybe both of the senators from Hawaii, had said this is not real.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_02: And people were figuring out that it couldn't be real because there weren't, there wasn't military scrambling to to uh address this inbound missile.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_02: So the people were figuring it out, but but not everyone has that kind of expertise to put all of the clues together when when they received that initial very frightening message.
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but the the fact that it, that the those other messages were going out over a different channel and from a different source, that made a difference.
• 34:15
  SPEAKER_02: People needed to receive that second message through the same channel that they received that initial alert through.
• 34:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so it was that second WIA that went out that was the one that really clarified what was happening.
• 34:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, for Hawaii, I mean, having those, you know, other voices there to help calm people down, I think is a benefit.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um, where I live now, um, our litmus test is the Waffle House.
• 34:40
  SPEAKER_01: If Waffle House is open, we're okay.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_01: Um, if Waffle House actually closes, you know there's something coming and it's big.
• 34:49
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I mean, it can be, I mean, you'd think we're in trouble, but then you see people there eating their pancakes and waffles, and you're just like, okay, we're all right.
• 34:58
  SPEAKER_01: Um so for the earthquake.
• 35:01
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, you know, that's funny.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_02: Our first guest on our podcast, Craig Fugate, he called that the Waffle House Index.
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_02: And that there's different levels of services that Waffle House provides depending on how how uh critically affected the Waffle House infrastructure is.
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_02: So um you can actually build up your plans based upon a Waffle House index in some places.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I hope we tag them in this.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_01: I would love to talk to somebody from Waffle House to be like, okay, help me.
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_01: And you know what?
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_01: I will do the podcast from a Waffle House.
• 35:41
  SPEAKER_01: Um That sounds like fun.
• 35:43
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: If you're not from the area where they have a Waffle House, it you go, you've got to experience it.
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um so going to the earthquake, right?
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_01: Because now circling back, this this ended up being a false alert.
• 35:59
  SPEAKER_01: So it took a while to let people know, again, from that source, that you know, it this there is no hazard.
• 36:10
  SPEAKER_01: And I think one of the lessons for me from this, again, is not bashing on the um the shake alert system because I truly think it's it's it's amazing.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_01: And it really has the potential to save a lot of people and to give you even those few seconds in a situation when you don't have much time.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's not a tornado, it's not a hurricane, you can't see it forecast for days.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um, there is no uh minor eruptions of a volcano where you know we're predicting this.
• 36:41
  SPEAKER_01: It it really is um such a quick onset.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_01: And so the program is is really good, and I'm looking forward to it continuing to develop.
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um with that said, uh one of the lessons is if there is a false, if there's false information for anything that goes out, as an alerting authority, you need to be prepared to push out a subsequent message letting people know that you know something was wrong, whether it was the information it shouldn't have gone out, the area you may not be involved in, whatever it may be, you need to be prepared to let the community know whether you know something is incorrect or just that it that it's okay.
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_01: What are your thoughts, Jeanette?
• 37:27
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I have lots of thoughts as usual.
• 37:31
  SPEAKER_02: Um USGS knew that they would that there would be false alerts with this system.
• 37:38
  SPEAKER_02: Um they had identified that as a potential years prior to the system really getting launched.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_02: In fact, there is a paper um that I helped with um that writes about post-alert messaging for earthquake early warnings.
• 37:57
  SPEAKER_02: And Sarah McBride was the first author on that.
• 37:59
  SPEAKER_02: And she worked for USGS for many years and now she's um in California.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_02: I think she's with uh the Seismological Safety Commission, maybe.
• 38:09
  SPEAKER_02: I'll have to look that up and then tag her in this.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, but Sarah's work on that was really, really important to identifying the potential points of failure, such as an alert that is issued when it shouldn't have been for different reasons.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and we've seen this before.
• 38:28
  SPEAKER_02: We saw it in uh 2020 in uh Ridgecrest, California, um, where uh an alert was issued to that the town of Ridgecrest.
• 38:40
  SPEAKER_02: And the the frightening thing is that the year before, that same town experienced really significant shaking.
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_02: And so when they got this alert, people believed that they were going to experience another earthquake.
• 38:51
  SPEAKER_02: Um and the follow-up message is really important for helping people who don't understand how the system works, such as earthquake early warnings.
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and I mention not understanding how the system works, in particular in relation to earthquake early warnings, because for those people we interviewed in Ridgecrest, some people waited for 30 and 40 minutes, thinking that earthquake early warning is not a detection system, it's a prediction system.
• 39:24
  SPEAKER_02: And we cannot predict earthquakes.
• 39:27
  SPEAKER_02: We detect the initial motion and from there build a model of the magnitude of the shaking that people will feel.
• 39:34
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but it means also that it's going to happen within a few seconds, within a minute or so, not 30 and 40 minutes later.
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_02: And so for those people in Rich Crest who went outside and waited and thought that that they were going to experience shaking eventually, they needed that message to tell them this was a false alert.
• 39:56
  SPEAKER_02: You are presently not in danger.
• 39:59
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you can return to your homes.
• 40:03
  SPEAKER_02: They needed something.
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_02: Now I know that in my conversations with seismologists, it's very difficult for them to ever ensure, reassure people that they are not in danger from shaking, because at any moment there could be shaking.
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and so it is a very fine line of walking, uh, whether or not you say you are safe or that there is no presently not a danger detected.
• 40:37
  SPEAKER_02: And that's kind of wordsmithing in some ways.
• 40:40
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but we know that what people needed in order to be to feel like they were able to go back into their homes was they needed to know that the alarm was false and that they were presently safe.
• 40:54
  SPEAKER_02: Um and it's the same kind of information people needed in Hawaii.
• 40:59
  SPEAKER_02: They needed to know that they were safe, um, and uh to be told that they can return to what they were doing and that they weren't gonna die that day.
• 41:08
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's I think that's that's the overall lesson is, and and we've talked about it before, is you need to communicate with your community, and it's that that post alert.
• 41:20
  SPEAKER_01: And again, whether it's you to correct information that shouldn't have gone out or just to let people know the hazard is over.
• 41:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you can return, you can do whatever it is.
• 41:30
  SPEAKER_01: Allow people the opportunity to kind of calm down, to to let that adrenaline settle, to, to reset, whatever they need to do.
• 41:40
  SPEAKER_01: And I think this uh earthquake uh alert that went out was just something good to highlight because even with systems like this, um, there should be something that can go out.
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_01: And and let's say if I'm a local authority um for alerting, I I have the ability to, you know, if I find out it is not correct or anything else or that we can return, um, can push it out.
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um but again, if I'm a local alerting authority, I can only do it to a certain area.
• 42:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um and so you you want everybody who received that initial message to also get that follow-up message.
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 42:18
  SPEAKER_02: You know, we've we've talked with with um counties in the Bay Area about um whether or not they should be pushing out a message through their opt-in systems to to ver to clarify Wii as that have been issued, um, whether they should be using WIA to tell people so that it's more widespread and getting the message to the same people who received the initial message.
• 42:43
  SPEAKER_02: Um I think there's a lot of concerns about over-alerting.
• 42:46
  SPEAKER_02: Um and also uh I think that there's uh some organizations simply haven't prepared for uh following up on these kinds of messages that are issued.
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_02: Um we have research that can help people to design their post alert messages now.
• 43:08
  SPEAKER_02: Um that paper was recently published in the Natural Hazards Review, and it's called the Post Alert Lexicon.
• 43:15
  SPEAKER_02: And it gives people the contents that they need for writing those post alert messages or messages that can go out after a hazard has ended to help people to understand that they are safe.
• 43:29
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and it's that it that post alert lexicon is now available on the warn room.
• 43:36
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I hope that people will will take a look at it, download it, make use of it, write their templates so that they have that information at their fingertips when they need it.
• 43:45
  SPEAKER_02: Um and uh, you know, waiting for two hours after the initial alert has gone out is a little, a little too long for people who are wondering whether what happened.
• 43:58
  SPEAKER_02: And maybe it's You can't say what happened, but you can with pretty certain uh a great deal of certainty say that uh that alert that went out you're not in danger of an earthquake at this time, uh given the way that the earthquake early warning system works, that the alerts are issued within seconds and the shaking should occur within minutes after that alert is has been sent.
• 44:28
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're sitting listening to this, if you're watching all that, you know, wherever you are, and you're thinking to yourself, do I have those templates ready?
• 44:38
  SPEAKER_01: Am I prepared?
• 44:39
  SPEAKER_01: Have I been through exercises where we've tested this?
• 44:43
  SPEAKER_01: This is another thing I just would love to plug is, and Jeanette, I'm gonna pass it back to you.
• 44:48
  SPEAKER_01: What are their resources?
• 44:50
  SPEAKER_01: What can they do and where can they go to get help?
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_02: So we we've been developing resources for a long time.
• 44:57
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, the first place that people can go, if they want to read the research, is they can go to the warnroom.com where they can get the post alert lexicon and the supplemental materials that have all the templates in it.
• 45:09
  SPEAKER_02: Um, they can get the warning lexicon, uh, which will give them the templates for writing initial alerts as well.
• 45:16
  SPEAKER_02: Um if they want to uh get training and assistance with their messaging, they can uh uh send us an email through the warn room or through the alerting authority.
• 45:30
  SPEAKER_02: We have been providing trainings, um, message reviews and audits, um, helping to prepare templates and edit templates and give people feedback on message consistency and message structure and the use of jargon.
• 45:46
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and also thinking through those strategies that are really important for when you're going to issue messages, making your policies around what kinds of hazards you might issue messages for, thinking through some of those sticky situations of coordinating with your neighbors and under what context would you use different channels to issue messages.
• 46:08
  SPEAKER_02: Those are all things that the alerting authority can help with and thinking through those problems and highlighting them so that you can think about them before you need to make the decision on the spot.
• 46:19
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and we've been really blessed to have been able to work with many different organizations, alerting authorities, agencies.
• 46:25
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and we know there's a lot more out there that um we can help.
• 46:29
  SPEAKER_01: And so it's just that other invite.
• 46:31
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us if you have a question.
• 46:33
  SPEAKER_01: And and that's really where it starts is just what do you think about this?
• 46:37
  SPEAKER_01: Or can you help with whatever it may be?
• 46:40
  SPEAKER_01: And we're I think we're pretty responsive.
• 46:44
  SPEAKER_01: Just let us know and we'll take it from there.
• 46:47
  SPEAKER_01: But thank you for talking about this today.
• 46:50
  SPEAKER_01: Um, I know again, you've had a lot of experience in this, and um I mean it's it very much uh is a part of our lives.
• 46:58
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, especially if you live out on the West Coast, and I know we just mentioned California, but really, you know, for Oregon, Washington, Alaska, all the different states um that are a part of this program, I am, I do think that the lessons learned in it are going to um be used for other programs for advanced or early detection and warning that we can get for other things.
• 47:22
  SPEAKER_01: So I look forward to hearing more and the research that will be done with all the information.
• 47:29
  SPEAKER_01: But that's that's it for today.
• 47:30
  SPEAKER_01: I said I'm glad that you were here with us, everybody.
• 47:33
  SPEAKER_01: Um we are the alerting authority, and we are here because we know every second has a story.
• 47:40
  SPEAKER_01: And you got to hear some of ours today, and we hope to you know talk to you later and please comment so that we can help share your story too.