Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 13 Lines with Scooch and Chad

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NFL Week 13 Lines with Scooch and Chad · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: M H. Welcome to the Favorites Podcast. I am Chad
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Milman from the Action Network. It is Wednesday, which can
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: only mean one day. We are going to bring it
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: in the bookmaker to the world from Boyd Gaming and
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: the Orleans, every Boyd Gaming outpost around the country. And
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: there's a surprise for everybody on the other side of
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: the intro music, So don't change the channel. The greatest
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: joy of my day is being able to look at
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Bob Scucci in the eyes as his intro music is played.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: I'm fairly certain he's tearing up a little bit. No,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: that's just you know, it's hot in here, so like
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: glasses again, you need some windows, some window wipers for
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: your glasses. Bob Scucci is live and in person in
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: New York. It's great to see a buddy, great to
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: be here, great to finally see the digs here. And yeah,
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: we've upgraded I could yeah from the last time I
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: was here. This is great, really nice. And you get
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: to look at the hipster mats to meet your guys
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: in person the podcast. It's very exciting. I'm glad you're
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: here in New York. I'm sorry that it's too cold
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: for you. Man I know, how do people live in this?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: It's not right. Today is like a decent day, decent
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: and the west today, Yeah, but it's the wind. It's
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: just I took too long walks today. Man. You can't
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: sit out in the courtyard smoking cigars. You do not
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: have that option here. You got to be indoors. You
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: will not be outside again for six months if you
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: live in New York. I was, you know, I was
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: waiting for you outside the building. I felt like ends
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: out of the Baker from the Godfather. He's waiting outside
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the hospital. Put the collar up, put your hands in
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: your pockets, like you have a gun. Do you wanna
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: do you wanna tell people why you were waiting outside
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: instead of coming up to the eleventh floor. Man, Because
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: I hate elevators? What is that about? You get stuck
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: in one of those? Have you been stuck in elevate?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Been stuck in an elevator when a long time ago
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: in San Francisco and it was just had to be
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: the smallest elevator. You couldn't you couldn't sit down in it.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: It was one of those old hotels, those boutique hotels,
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: and it fits maybe three people standing, and it just
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: it got got stuck and I'm and then it got
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: dark and just a horrible experience. How long were you
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: in there? It felt like days it was. It was
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: probably about maybe thirty minutes. Sorry for you. Yeah, so
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: when you told me you're on the eleventh floor, yeah,
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: you just responded, oh ship. And these elevators aren't so big,
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: by the way. These elevators are small and ancient. Hey,
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: last week was Thanksgiving, so you got you know, destroyed
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving Day because all the favorites covered. Uh Phil
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: and Tiger was the next day. And the numbers that
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Bleacher Report is talking about, I feel like really big
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: numbers they're talking about, you know, you know huge. I
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: think they said something like, I don't know sto streams
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: at one point for the match, Um, what kind of
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: activity did you see? Betting activity or or just interest
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: in it? Both? Yeah, the I mean the interest was tremendous.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I mean everybody was kind of waiting for it, and
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: you know they picked you know, the day after Thanksgiving,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: which is a great spot, great time for it, kind
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: of in between a lot of the other action. But
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: as you know, the problem with the feed created an issue.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: You know, we knew right away we weren't getting the
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: feed when we just see the black screen, and you know,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: we're calling the distributors and everything. So people were getting anxious,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: and some people were kind of leaving the casinos because
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: they wanted to see it. They wanted to see the
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: beginning of it. They wanted to see it from the start.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: They yeah, they didn't want to wait and miss something
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: good at the beginning. So they all started scrambling to
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: find somewhere where they knew that it would be on.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: And of course we got it up in time for
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: the start of it, but a lot of people didn't
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: didn't know that. But on the wagering side, remember it
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: was up for a long time, so we we got
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  Speaker 1: quite a bit of uh of action on it, you know,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: more than any other kind of similar type of UH.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: I mean the last time there was something of this
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: magnitude with Tiger, just one on one with the Sergio Garcia.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: We we drew quite a bit on that one, too,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: but but this one was bigger. Um. Well, we'll see
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: the golf numbers, you know, the way that the gaming
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: numbers in the VET are broken out. Um, we could
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: kind of decipher and segment out that other category because
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: they don't list it in just golf. Golf is part
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: of you know, tennis and miscellaneous. So we'll see if
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: there's a spike in November for that other category and
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: just how much, and then we can kind of deduce
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: how much was bet on it. Why don't they break
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: out NFL from college football? Because it's how do you
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: do it? Has always been the question, like you better
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Let's say you bet a hundred dollar parlay and you've
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: got an NFL team, college team, and let's say a
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: third team NHL. Is it thirty three dollars on each?
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  Speaker 1: Is it a hundred on the first team, a hundred
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: on the last team. It's it's really difficult, and and
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: a lot of the systems that people use are are
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: all different, so you're getting different reporting from property to
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: property based on what kind of platform they have. UM.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I feel like this past weekend in the NFL things
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: started to turn themselves back into normalcy. You saw the
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Bills win as big dogs, You saw the Broncos win,
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: you saw, um what else happened? Favorites covered some big
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: double digit favorites, So that covered the Chargers Chargers Ravens
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: against the Raiders, the three big, biggest points, breads, the
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: double digit favorites all covered. The only saving grace for
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: us really two games the Broncos, uh covering winning against
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: the Steelers, and uh the Dolphins covered the Dolphins because
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins. That would have been better if they if
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: they won the game outright for us, because just to
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: kill some teaser. Has been great weekend for UCE. I mean,
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: it could have been a lot worse, particularly how it
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: let up with if if not for the brilliant bookmaking
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: you did. And I keep saying that, you know, some
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: of our best bookmaking. We lose some of the best
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: editing I've ever done. We're on the stories where we
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: got sued, and like, you really gotta look at it
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: from the perspective of we could have been sued for
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: so much more. You know, so if I hadn't been
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: on my editing game that day, right, Okay, you know
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I heard it many times at the gaming I'm here
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: for the for the ice Sports Betting Conference, and I
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: heard all the bookmakers there. Tomorrow I'm speaking twice. Okay,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I'll try to look for you there. I'll be in
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: the green room. I'm not sure if you can get
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: in there. Yeah, make sure you get plenty of pancake.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: You know they're taking pictures. Speaking twice, okay. I saw
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: there were so many bookmakers, both from Europe, Nevada, Jersey,
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  Speaker 1: and all saying the same thing that a lot of
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: the loss is out of your control, but it doesn't
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: mean it's bad bookmaking. So they didn't go quite as
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: far as I did, saying that sometimes it's your best
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: bookmaking when you lose. But I wanted, I wanted to
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: get up on on stage and just kind of throw
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: that one in, and I, well, you know, I'm speaking
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: twice tomorrow, and so I feel like I'm going to
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: have the opportunity at some point to reference that losses
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: could be worse if bookmakers like Bob Scucci weren't so
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: good at their job. Make sure you attribute. You know,
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: that's something that journalists learned, right, You always have attribute, Okay,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I you know, I give attribution words to I don't
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: need to play jarized stuff, especially gems like that. Um
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: speaking of bookmaking, I feel like the New Orleans Saints
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: as seven or seven and a half point dogs at
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: home or on the road against the Cowboys. I immediately
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: saw that number, and as much as I hate betting
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: on the Cowboys. I saw that and thought, oh boy,
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  Speaker 1: this is gonna be a tough decision. Well, this feels
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: like the last four times that the Saints played. It's
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: like deja vu all over again. How many times do
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: we put up a gigantic number Saints on the road
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  Speaker 1: and and I feel that the right play is the
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: home dog, and they just keep covering and covering and covering.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Don't cover by much. I mean the Falcons game, I
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: mean they were right there within striking distance, But every
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: week it's it's the same thing with the Saints. So, uh,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: apparently we haven't lost enough on the Saints, so we're
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: gonna gonna number again. But I mean we we So
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: we put up behind number eight and a half, they
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: right away they take the eight and a half. It's
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: down seven and a half. And we know it's the
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: same pattern that you know the public is gonna be
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: on the Saints at about a ten to one clip
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: and the sharp guys will take the other side. But
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: you know, how much do you take on? So if
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I go back, if I go back to eight eight
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  Speaker 1: and a half, how much do I take on the Cowboys?
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  Speaker 1: And then finally have the cow, you know, the dog
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  Speaker 1: cover and then give away what would have been a
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: good win. So we're not gonna do that. We're gonna
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: we're gonna write it out. And just the other thing
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about in one of the two
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: times I speak at the conference tomorrow is um that bookmakers,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: they're betters like you don't necessarily want to be even
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: like you want to have a little bit of it.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: You want to have some action. No, well, first of all,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: it's a myth to have perfect two way action. You'll
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: never get it. It's impossible. Especially the part that that
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: they always miss when they talk about two way action
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: is two way action at the same number. It's no good.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: If you get, you know, a ton of money at
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: minus seven and a half and a ton of money
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: at plus eight and a half and have it land
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: on eight, what good is your two way action? But
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: but you don't even want to try and get two
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: way action because the best that you're gonna do is
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: win a very small margin. And that's not the goal
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: of the bookmaker. You know that the goal is to
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: win as much as you can and and increase those margins.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: You know you're not gonna you're not gonna do it
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: trying to get two way action on every game. My
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: goal is a better you think would be to win
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: as much as I can. It's not. It's to have
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: as much fun as I can. Well, that's that's rare
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: among a lot, especially among the professional betters. You don't
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: see too many professional betters just like laughing it up
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: and saying, I'm just having I'm just Yeah, I win
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: some money, but I'm here for the drinks and the atmosphere. Yeah,
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: doesn't like to spend the afternoon inhaling at a sports book. Yeah,
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: it's the best, it really is. Please give me that
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: well vodka and the second hand smoke and a side
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: of a nickel on the bears. Yeah that sounds like
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: that our clientele. Yeah, that's so funny. That's so funny. Um. Alright,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: So the wise guys were taking the Cowboys when it
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: was a big number. They're not taking it when it's
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: a smaller number. And you're gonna end up having to
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: eat something on Sunday when this line goes back up. Yeah,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: but we'll I guarantee you we'll be the first one
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: to go up. I mean, we'll first one to go
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: to eight. First one to go to another because you're scared,
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: because we're quick to react aggressive like a cat. Like
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: a cat. That's what I think about when I think
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: of you, cat like reflexes. All right, well, here's an
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: interesting one. Baltimore Ravens. They opened his two and a
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: half point favorites. The Atlanta Falcons are now one point favorites.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: A lot of money coming in on Atlanta. I liked
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: Atlanta in this game. I liked Atlanta. Um. I hate
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: saying because I hate the Falcons. Hate it. Yeah, what
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: am I gonna do here? I hate the Falcons too
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: after last week and they couldn't Oh my god, yeah,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: so frustrating. I hate the Falcons. I mean this is
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: the spot form. I mean at home, they should just
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: win this game and getting you know, getting points. I
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: could see the value. But uh, look at look at
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: the Ravens numbers each week increasing. Uh you know, the
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: the lines I'm talking about, the lines are getting bigger
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: and bigger when the rains the Ravens are playing. Um,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: you look back at the Ravens Saints game and and
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: and how credible does that game look? Where it was
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: only a one point uh margin where they came up short. Um, so,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: so now looking back at how good the Saints are,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: that that really was a quality to loss. Uh and uh,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: you know with Lamar Jackson, the guys like Ezekiel Elliott,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: you know he's got about the same amount of USh
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: is in Yark just you look at his stats. So
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: it's like having having an extra thread out there how
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: far back when you look. So you can look now
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: and say the Ravens were a quality loss, but at
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: the time of the Saints were a quality loss. At
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: the time, we were also not necessarily given the Saints
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: a ton of credit for that win because if you remember,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: we really thought that the Ravens was was a play
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: that day at home getting ye. So, but every week
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: I mean that the Saints they keep like, like I said,
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: we're not We're not going to learn our lesson. We're
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: going to put up another number here that the public
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: is gonna lay and just just ride it out from
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: here on out. You didn't really answer my question, how
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: far back are we gonna look for every team or
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: just for the generally, like, what's your Well, if you
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: look at like I'm not going to go back to
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: Week one Saints, right, the Saints lost to the Bucks
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: in week one. You're not looking at week one and
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: being like, well, you know what, I think the Box
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: are better than we thought. Like the Saints were a
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: different team. I'm looking at key games, key games were
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: both teams feel I mean like where you feel like
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: this is a key game in the season. You look
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: to the schedule and there's just certain games where you're
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: looking for those key matchups, like like Rams and Chiefs.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: You're looking for those games. Uh so, you know we're
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: not going to go back to necessarily to to week
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: one or two. No one gives the Bucks credit at
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: this point for beating the Saints. No, no, and and
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: and the Texans. I mean, we're not going to look
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: back to how they I mean they started oh in three, right,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: that's your team. I love this team. I love this team.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: I think the biggest problem with this team is that
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson holds the ball for way too long in
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: the pockets to learn them and that is going to
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: be a fatal flaw. Like you know, you can always tell,
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: like when teams losing the playoffs, they lose for the
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: things that sort of made them snake bit throughout the year.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: And you watch that game last night and so many
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: times just on Watson was holding the ball for too long,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: and like they're really talented teams, so to get away
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: with it. But um, you know, I also say, like
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: I look at that a f C conference right now,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: and obviously the Patriots are great, the Chiefs are great.
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: But I don't know that the Steelers are any better
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: than the Texans. Like I think the Texans might be
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the third best team in the conference. Yeah, you know,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: people kind of look to their their schedule and say, okay,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: well they didn't play anybody. But when you have that
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: many wins, eight wins in a row, you kid in
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: the NFL, I don't care who you're playing, that tells
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: you it's a good team. It's a discipline team. They're
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: great defense, and the key is the defense. Those guys
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: stay healthy. Clowney J. J. Watt, those guys stay healthy. Merciless.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: You know what he is? What is He's im merciless? Merciless?
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Really is he? Why are you such a hack? I
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: knew where you were going. I wasn't gonna go there,
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: go there. Yeah, I wouldn't do that is such a cliche. Alright,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I expected just to walk away from
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: the whole conversation. I think you're gonna come back. Um,
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: all right, Arizona is a fourteen point dog to the
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: reeling Green Bay Packers. This Cardinals team is strange because
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: there was a stint in the middle of the year
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: when Josh Rosen was taking over Sam Bradford, and then
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: the first couple of games after where it looked like
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: he can move the ball, and then all of a
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: sudden they seem to have forgotten what they were doing
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: and they can't do anything. But the Packers are bad,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: and so what do I do with a fourteen point spread?
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, as a hand as a professional handicapper, you're
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: supposed to take it, but you know it hasn't been
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: really panning out the last a few weeks, so don't
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: want to do that. Some of the bad teams you
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: just have to at one point stay away from. So
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: you look back to, you know, the the year of
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: the Browns just law to every game and we kept saying,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: you know, you have to keep playing them. This is
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: they're getting ten points and they're at home. You have
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: to play them. And they're getting fourteen at home and
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: you have to play them, and they're so you have
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: to stay with those things, as painful as it as
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: it is as a professional handicapper, but you know it
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: is painful. I mean, look at the Raiders. You look
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: at them, and you say, how can I keep betting
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: these teams? And I don't care how many points I'm
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I'm getting? But but yeah, this is talk about an
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: inflated line. It's deliberately inflated, knowing that the casual fan
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: is just gonna lay big points. That's it's a bet
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: against Arizona. It's not necessarily saying that the Packers are invincible.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: It's just that the Cardinals are that bad. So we're
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: gonna make this line incredibly high. That the line really
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: shouldn't be this high. I'm not gonna bet it. Well,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: we're gonna We're okay, don't like it? Don't like it?
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: Also like the Rams ten point favorites on the road
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: against the Lions. Yeah, and and here's a Rams team
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: that conversely, you know, you look at how the Saints
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: keep covering, covering covering. The Rams haven't been real strong
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: covering a lot of these spreads. And obviously the record
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: just straight up is is great. But I mean, these
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: big numbers is not in their wheelhouse. I mean they're
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: not running and because the defense and we talked about it,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: they're letting team score points. So you know, Detroit, I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: think Detroit scores scores a ton of points on them.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: So I might bet this game. This might be one. Huh. Oh, boy,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: Chad is making a bet. Oh. I get to see
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: what you actually do here. I'm covering them. Say now,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: I'm in the studio. I get to see the secret.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: All right, you cannot see what I'm doing. I'm taking
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: my steam filled glasses and just covering them un barely
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: hot hair, is it not? Man, I don't know what
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: you mean that my ears are hot? Then I'm not
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: even wearing headphones. They turning red. Mmm. I know how
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: you guys deal with it. The freezing outside, it's hot inside.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: Mines plus ten minus one, fifteen. At one particular book
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at, yeah, came down, came down, and probably
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: it was eleven at one point. Yeah yeah, yeah, you
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: missed a bad number there, and then you missed missed
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: the best of the number. Well, let me check another spot,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: see what's happening there. But I think my point is
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: you kind of in the middle of that conversation where
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: I first looked at it and thought of Matt Patricia.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Then you made me reconsider my position go against that
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: defense that pours defense. It's not a great defense, No,
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: it's you know, I thought it was a lot better
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: than what it turned out to be. They have nobody
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: like Aaron Donald is the only guy who can do
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: anything on that defensive line. Marcus Peters is awful disappointment
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: all the way around. Um hold on, I'm looking at
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: one more place right now, and I'm going to check
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: in with the guys getting the same number. Okay, just
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: checking in. It's not really professional to do that, scooch.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm not making a bet right now. Let's
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: take it back. Reverse it. You know Hamilton's that, Just
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: reverse it, go from helpless and to satisfied. Have you
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: guys seen Hamilton's rewind? Come on, I am not going
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: to allegedly make a bet. That's the sound that it makes.
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: Uh Denver minus four and a half half at Cincinnati?
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: Is Andy Dalton playing? Are you comfortable posting a line
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: in this game right now? They don't. That's why I'm
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: going to call the Remember I'm not in the hub
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: right now now, So you're calling right now. I'll do
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: play by play right now. Scooches with me in the studio.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: He has multiple cell phones and he's asking what do
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: we got in the Bengals. He's talking to his office
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: and and uh, what it is Dalton playing? Or what
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: do we have? Yes, the talk was playing. He's getting
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: an answer. He's sipping his coffee, he's smiling. This is
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: a big mike. Yeah, it's commenting in the mic. Okay,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: so that's yeah, yeah, we got we got him out,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: got him out. So you got him out and you
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: got the Bengals at plus four and a half, which
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: means to me, like there's like minimal impact on Andy
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Dalton being out. They might have been three and a
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: half pretty much. So like all this to me, Thanks, Kevin,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: stay in the line, standing the line, Kevin, don't hang up.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: We need you, We need some action, Kevin. Um, here's
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: what this game is saying to me. No, Andy Dalton,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: huge action disability, like you get the Is that a huge,
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: huge Ackson? It's like huge Ackson as I suspected for
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: the Browns game. Being on the sideline for the Bengals
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: game should downgrade the Bengals. Um and then Hugh Jackson
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: being on the side for the Bengals in the Browns
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: game being on the side for the Broncos game. I
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: think the cost of huge action should be three points.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: We went the other way, Like, if this game was
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be maybe Bengals minus one and a half, now
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: it's minus four and a half without Dalton, should probably
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: be seven and a half with Hugh Jackson. Wow, that's
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: that's quite the Can you imagine, Like the guy couldn't
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: even like, yeah, that was your big that was your
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: big angle last week, didn't bet it, which was stupid.
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: We should have a section on just regrets. Yeah, oh
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: that'd be good. Yeah, yeah, Like I have a lot
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: of regrets in my life. You know, girl in high school,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: you know, things could have gone differently, didn't work out. Yeah,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: I've been lucky in that regard the girl in high
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: school not betting the Browns. That's that's like, you know
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: the two things. Yeah, yeah, I agree. But now in
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: this case, you want to go higher than four and
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: a half, that's that's a little too much. Team stinks, stinkola. Yeah,
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: like you can put this team, you can take half
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: the players off the field for the Broncos. I might
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: actually go let me see. Hold on, we're calling Kevin, Kevin,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: he's going to five? What what what's the what's the
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: ticket count on it? Yeah? Wow? Are there you once
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: you go to five? Stand in the line, Kevin Stanley. Okay,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: but he said, we're not getting huge Action on the game. Huh,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: I got no, I got I got I got it.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: Things are the jokes are so much funnier when you
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: have to explain them are In case everybody listening missed it,
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: Scoot said we're not getting huge Jackson on the game,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: but he disguised it as huge action, little double tondrepressive,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: But I got it. I'm going to pass on this one.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think I can put money on Jeff Friscoll.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: That's the Bengals backup quarterback. Uh Houston minus five and
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: a half against Cleveland. Cleveland is getting a little bit
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: too much credit for beating the Bengals. This game should
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: be seven. You get Kevin on the phone, are we
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: make this? You change this number? Yeah? We're When I
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: hang on one second, Kevin, what do we at on on? Houston?
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: Why don't you put Kevin on speaker? Yeah? Yeah, I
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: might put you on speaker here in a minute. But
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: maybe Kevin should just be in the podcast. I think
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: we're going all right. I don't need you to be
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: a mouthpiece. Well I'm not. I can't see how many
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: I can't see how many tickets we have on the game.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: From Kevin on speaker phone, don't light he said he
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: doesn't want to be on the on the show. He's
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: doing other things. He's multi tasking. Don't be a coward. Okay,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: you don't want to be on the show, do you? Oh?
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know about Kevin. Just be on the show.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: No you don't. Yeah, all right, we embarrass him every week. Okay,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: so you're moving the game. What are you moving to to?
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: I wish you hadn't done that because now other books
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: might move it. And I kind of want to bet
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Houston at minus five, and it's the risk you run.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: You know, you're a player. Here's the thing. Here's the
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: thing right now, Um that game. Nobody's here in the
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: podcast yet, although you moved it, that's true. That's hold on,
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: hold on, I can't find that game. Where's that game?
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, we just talked about Houston. We talked about
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: how good they are and I agree, and I agree
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: with you. They are pretty good. Yeah, they're really good.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: I think they're Like, although the flip side does that
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: mean why can't I find this game? I don't know.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Um the flip side is, are they
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: overvalued Houston? I don't think so. I like, like we said,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I think they're not getting probably enough credit because of
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: the strength of schedule, of the lack of strength of
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: their their schedule. But you remember how high everyone was
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: on this team before Deshaun Watson got hurt last year,
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: and it's as high as they were on them then
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: they're they're not quite as high on them anymore. But
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: that's the same team. That's the team that they thought.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: That's what I mean. They're better than that, and yet
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: people just forgot how much they were supporting them last year. So,
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: uh no, I think, by the way, you were late
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: getting a six. It's six all over town right now.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: When we went to six and a half, shut up, Kevin,
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Kevin did we go to six and a half? Six
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: and a half? All right? Now? It's a want it
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: in here? He just moved at a full point. Look
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: at that. You know what we do here? We influence
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: people do you think they think that the wise guys
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: will take it at six and a half? I'll find
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: out in a minute. I'll check back with you think
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: there'll be a flood. Why don't you just tell Kevin
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: if like something happens, just yell, yeah, hey if we
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: if we get any bets on Cleveland, let me know
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: is the phone are the phone's lighting up yet? Not yet?
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: All right? Thanks? Kevin doesn't like you? Kevin's getting piste. Yeah,
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: he is not a show pony to be tried it
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: out for your amusement. Um, okay, Buffalo at Miami Dolphins
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: minus five? What do you do with this Buffalo team?
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: That's the thing. I think you bet against him this
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: weekend because who they go back and forth? Because I
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: think they go back and forth, different game on the road, Tanna,
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: I had a really good game last week. Um, I
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: think Dolphins is anything less than a touchdown is probably
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: the play. Well, he is less than a touchdown, So
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: that's what I'm saying. Yeah, I think we're gonna get
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of that. I'm I'm gonna gonna check the
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: check real quick. Kevin take account there? Yeah? Wow, pretty close?
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: And what what are we at okay, all right, thanks scretch.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: We have like eight five games left. You're gonna need
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: to put Kevin on speakers so we don't have to
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: interrupt every time I have a question that you can't answer.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: All right, I we went to five and a half
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: on the game, and but the ticket accounts dead even
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: on that, just dead even. You're gonna end up going higher.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: IM telling you right now. You know five is that
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: no man's land? So yeah, yeah, it's people are gonna
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: lay that five. They'rena lay that five and a half.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: You're gonna get stuck into a spot where you're gonna
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: end up at six, six and a half. I think
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: the sharp guys are gonna take it. Yeah, it's too many.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not. You don't see two. You don't see a five,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: five and a half go up to seven very often.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Usually see it come down if a team isn't if
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: we don't make them close to seven to begin with,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: barring an injury, I see it going down. Lay it now,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: don't patronize me or lay it later. No, I don't
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: believe it as much. I don't feel its strong. Indianapolis
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: is a four point favorite on the road against the
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: once mighty Jacksonville Jaguars. Uh, if I'm looking at this right,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: this line open to two and a half, it's been
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: bed up to four. Our wise guys betting the Colts
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: that heavily, just because Cody Kessler and learned for Net
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: are out. So and boy, you know the last few weeks,
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: you know, it's been Colts, Colts, Colts. The public has
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: been riding them. And we talked about it early on
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: in the season. Uh, we want once luck gets going
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: and this team, uh you know, gets their sea legs
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: under them and in which they have, and you're seeing
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: those pointspreads getting bigger and bigger each week. Uh. They
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: fell short last week against against the Dolphins, which kind
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: of saved our bacon a little it. But uh but no,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: this this Colts team is just fast becoming that that
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: public team again. So um yeah. And and they're done
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: with Jacksonville. I mean, the public is just done with that.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: I want nothing to do with them. Personnel changes doesn't matter.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: That's not gonna sway any anyone into into having anything
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: to do with them. So it's just gonna be all
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: all Colts. It's such an interesting team, like they've lost
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: what seven in a row, they started three and one. Um,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: the wheels fell off against the Chiefs like that was
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: sort of the end of the road for them. They
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: gave up a crapload of points. Blake Portals started looking
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: like Blake ports. They had four or five chances in
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: the red zone. I remember this game very specifically, blew
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: them all. Blake Bortles through an interception in the red
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: zone off of an offensive lineman's helmet and that was it. Yeah,
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: now then it was over. Y Um. They couldn't recover
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: from that. No, I mean there's a team that just
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: relied on their defense. I mean, look at how far
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: they went last year. And they were just saying that
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Bortles was just you know, he was so close. They
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: were going to work on his arm because that's why
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: he's slinging it off guy's helmets, because he's like three
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: quarters almost throwing the throwing the ball side arm. They
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: were gonna work with him and that was going to
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: be the difference maker, and uh just went went the
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: other way. He just regressed. I believe they call that
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: an arm slot. So you got the technical terms, you know,
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: maybe making, but it's the truth. So yeah, this this
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: like that time in the podcast where you made up
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: the fact that, uh, the Saints were gonna trade for
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Eli Apple and they were in competition with the Eagles,
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: and then it just had just happy right, Yeah, get lucky.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Sometimes you just throw stuff out there, and you know,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: sometimes it happens. Have the wise guys waiting on this game.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah they're on the cold. I feel like I missed
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: the best of the number on that. Yeah you're done there,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Carolina three and a half at Tampa Bay. Wow, Yeah right.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: I think I think the numbers right there. Um, the public,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: the public has been on Panthers the last couple of weeks,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: but that's with real short numbers. Laying anything more than
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: a field goal, they get a little they get a
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: little nervous. Um. So in this one, I think we're
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: gonna get pretty good, pretty good two way, probably just
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: a little heavier on the on the Panthers. I look
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: at these numbers lately, and normally I've got like a
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: really good read on which side I want to go with,
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: and I just this week is tough. I feel like
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at sort of an unsolved puzzle where the
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: pieces are missing, do you know what I mean? I
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: don't know what to do in this Carolina game. No,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: that's a that's a tough one. That's why I said,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: I think we got the number right. So when it's
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: tough to really pick what side, uh that you like?
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: That means it's a pretty good According to the Action
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: Network gap, the free Action Network gap, sixty of the
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on Tampa Bay. Means the wise
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: guys are betting the Tampa Bay because the ticket account
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: is on Carolina, And that makes sense. Wise guys are
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: just betting the home dog, you know, getting getting a
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: little value at three and a half. Yeah, I guess so.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: But that's gonna be pretty much a corner TV game.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: All right. This next one, man, oh my god, you
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: are going to be sucking air on this game. Do
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: you know what came? I'm talking about Kansas City, Kansas
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: City point favorite on the Road Raiders. So let me
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: just tell you that people in Las Vegas they love
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: the Raiders the last couple of years for a couple
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: of reasons, one of them being that they're coming to
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: Las Vegas and they love him this year too. Only
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: they love him this year because they bet against him
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: every week and they win money every week. It's just
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: an automatic. They bet against the Raiders. It's you know,
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: local TV coverage, that's what they talk about, talk about
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: the Raiders, talk about the Raider games. Just one of
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: the games will be shown on TV, and it's just
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: bet against him. We can't make these points spreads high enough.
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: This one is another one. Like we talked about early,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: You have to just bet the Raiders. You have to
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: take them as a as a professional handicapper. How many
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: professional better do you think are taking the Raiders right now? Kevin? Oh,
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: let me put them on you're there? How many professional
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: betters have taken the Raiders at plus fifteen? They took
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: fifteen and a half. Professional betters took fifteen and a
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: half right as we opened it. As soon as as
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: soon as we opened it, got it. If you're a
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: professional better, you have to take the Raiders. I can't
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: wait to rename this podcast The Favorites with Chatt and Kevin.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Did Kevin hear that he's right here? Does Kevin listen
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: to the podcast? Does he know you're on a podcast? Kevin?
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Do you know that I do a podcast? Already already
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: mentioned a few times? Does Kevin know who I am?
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: Does he know I'm famous? Do you know who this
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: guy is? Just from the podcast, I'm muting you all right,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: So we know that there's at least one professional better
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: who took it a fifteen and a half and nobody
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: of fifteen New York Jets plus eight on the road
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: at Tennessee. They showed up on Sunday for a while.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: If we if we could count the score after three quarters,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: classid Josh McCown game good enough for three quarters? Yeah?
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: Uh you know, I ironically I missed the end of it,
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: and I just you know, I had to call in
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: just to see how much we uh we lost, and
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: they said, uh, you know, the Jets were right there
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: at the end and they could have scored and they
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: came up short. I missed that, but thanks for telling me.
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: That just makes me feel so much better. Yeah. So,
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: but I just looked at the final score and that's all.
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: It's all you need to right the right side is said, Um,
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: I I think this line. I mean that the public
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: isn't necessarily going to lay that that big number. I
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: think we'll get some pretty good two way at that number.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: There's still a lot of Jet supporters out there, just
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: the general public. I mean, um, I don't think the
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Wise guys have laid uh have weighed in on this
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: one yet? To check with Kevin real quick, Kevin Wise guys,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: the Jets, the Wise guys weigh in on this one.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: If they took nine right away? It took nine? Yeah, okay,
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: all right, thank you? Yep, yeah, yeah, it's a big
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: it's a big number. It's it's a little too big.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: I mean it's it's on the high side. But no
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: one's bett eight. No one's Betton plus eight. No, No,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna bet that game. No, not allegedly betting
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: anything yet. Uh. Seattle minus nine and a half at
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: home against San Francisco. Boy, the Seahawks are just impressive.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: They're gonna yeah, they're gonna lay this one. And even
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: even when the Seahawks lose, they still draw some support
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: from the public betters the next week. It's not that
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: it's not like the public has been fickle with them.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: They've been on them as as underdogs, as favorites. Uh.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: They just ride it out with this team. So this
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: is gonna be another um, another game whether the public
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: is going to be on the on the Seahawks. So
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: we're deaf lee on the high side here. Um, if
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: you're if you're professional handicapper, you know you don't lay
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: that number. You take it. But they're not taking it.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: Not yet. We're gonna have to inch up on this
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: one a little bit. But we're good right now. No,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: do we still do we had through the horn, I
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: didn't have the headphone. We've done the horn. Yea, we're
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: doing that alright. Uh, here's the game. I like might
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: have to allegedly bet this New England minus five against Minnesota.
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: I like the vikings here. Well, yeah, everyone, did you
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: know we we went really hot on the high side
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: here and they took the Vikings right away? What did
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: you open? A? Wow? See I can't knowing the seven
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: was out there. I can't bet minus five plus five? Yeah,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: because you missed it. I missed on principal. You can't.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: You can't take it. Suck. Well, we'll still we'll still
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: get plenty of patriot mind. This will creep back up,
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: but you won't get that. You won't get seven. Where
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: do you think I'll get it at you'll get you'll
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: get six six and a half. Maybe I'll take six
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: and a half, you'll take six and a half. I
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: would do that. Um, But you know, a lot of
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of value on this one. I mean, I
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: hate saying it, but you know how many times have
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: we gone against the Patriots. You go against the Patriots.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: But this weekend I was on the Patriots that like
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: minus a hundred and I still won the bet, you
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? Yeah, and like they didn't they
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: didn't play well even and still covered. I still covered.
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: But now you're gonna go against them. Well, I think
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's a better team than the Jet Yeah, yeah, for sure.
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: Kirk Coffins Cousins is having just a ridiculous, ridiculously good year. Um.
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: And I think their defense is really good and I
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: think the Patriots defense is not so good. I think
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: you're right. I'm waiting, though, I'm waiting even there right now. Yeah,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: sixty what well of the money is on Minnesota seventy
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: three of the tickets around New England. That's that's why
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I said the public will drive that number up. The
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: bigger money is going to be on the on the
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: Vikings because we deliberately went on the high side. I'm
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: gonna hold that powder. The late move is the correct move.
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: So if the late move ends up being uh, the
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: line goes up to six and a half and stays there.
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Does that mean the right move is to bet on
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: the Patriots manus five? I mean if you just do
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: some analysis and you look at a lot of those
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: moves on Sunday morning, the two hours before kickoff, most
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: of the time those are the that's the right side.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: I'm going to do some analysis on that. We would
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: actually network have something called bet labs and um actually
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: networks where I work, and um we've out a free
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: app you can download it and uh bet labs like
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: has access to all this data over the past twenty
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: years where we can analyze everything like from whether patterns
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: to point spreads to you know, home and away all
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. How far back it's pretty good? Yeah, yeah, yeah, Um,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: you don't want to go too far back. You want
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: it to be real, you want to be relevant. No,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: I get it. Uh So I'm gonna do a little
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: The late move is I'm going to create a late move.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: Is the correct move system? How do teams do in
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the last two hours? How do bets in the last
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: two hours do moving in one direction or the other? Okay, Um,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you how it goes because you might want
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: to just break it down a little bit more. I'm
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: just thinking about this half A point may not make it.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: It has to be a significant move for it to be.
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: What's defined significant, I think more than I think probably
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: more than a point point in a half unless it's
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: unless it's like at three. I mean, like we talked
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: about before, going from three to three and a half,
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: it's probably more more significant than going from eleven and
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: a half to I can test it in the host
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: of the ways. I can be like, gimme line moves
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: in the last two hours before kickoff. How do teams
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: do when the line moves from three to three and
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: a half? And then how do I how do teams
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: do when they moves from five to seven? You know
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: that's what you should do. What is Kevin? Think? Kevin?
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: Okay with that? Kevin? You're there? Think you like that?
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: You like that analysis. He's working, He's Kevin's busy. He's
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: treating it honestly, he's treating the podcast the way you
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: treat the podcast. Thanks Kevin. Uh Los Angeles Chargers plus
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: three and a half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Pittsburgh.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: This is that hook. That hook is like bait. It
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: is trying to to to capture itself in my cheek,
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: the professional better has to take the three and a half.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: We are just like last week, that was the game
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: that's that bailed this out was against the Broncos and
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: we needed them just to save our day. Uh, this
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: will be a little bit different case. It will be
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: the late game, which is always a much bigger game
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: for us. It's the bailout game. And so we know
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: that there's gonna be plenty of Parley money on on
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh. But when you have two real good teams
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: and one of them is getting more than three points,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: the same segment of the general public, they flip it
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: and they bet they take the Yeah. Yeah, so any
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: any big game now, you know when the Yankees and
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are always if they're both good and one
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: of them is getting plus a dollar fifty, they'll take
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: the dog. It doesn't matter who will. Is that because
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: the public getting smarter? Yeah yeah, and they they look
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: the public is looking at value now which they've never
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: done before. So in national championship games, college now championship games, automatically,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: if a team was laying three and a half four points,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: we'd get money on the favorite. Now it's like, Okay,
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: well Clemson's playing Alabama, why don't They're both good enough
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: to get here. I'm taking the dog with points, you know,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: and they have a probably good a good shot to
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: win the game. Out Right, We're getting more of that
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: than we've ever gone before. I'm not saying it's still
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: more than the people that are laying the favorite, but
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: we're getting more dog money in big games than we've
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: ever gotten in the past. You know why, people are
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: getting smarter because of the shows like like yours. It's
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: only taken about seven years, but finally yeah. Yeah. The
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: last game of the night is the Monday and night
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: The Eagles are six and a half point favorites. Yeah,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: this is this is a tough one Monday night game. Uh,
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: talking about people laying favorites. Any time you're you're close
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: to those key numbers threes and sevens, if you're at
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: six and a half, we know the public is gonna
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: lay that number. Um, so we're gonna we're gonna end
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: up needing the Redskins on this one. Um, Philly's disappointed
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: most of the betters most of the most of the year. Um,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: so that's kind of slowed them down a little bit.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: But on a Monday night game, laying laying six and
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: a half, where they're gonna be. They're gonna be all
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: over the Eagles on this one. So I think the
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: wise guys will probably take Washington. So if anything, this
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: line comes down, uh, you know what it's time for
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: I think. So how you're doing scoutule that last week,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Matt for well, I know who? I had the Falcons
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving? You lost? Yeah, Chad had the Steelers, but
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: on Sunday he decided he wanted the Broncos. So can
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: I change it? What? Oh? You know what? On Thursday
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: when I woke up, I really wanted to Saint right,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah I did. So you can change it if you want,
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: go with what your heart does tells you. I'm gonna Hey, Kevin,
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: I want you to think about this. Look at the schedule,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: and if I had to put a gun in your
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: head to play one game, I want that game. Hold on,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: hold on, don't tell me. Hold on, Let's play some music.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: Let's play some scuture that We're the best produced podcast
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: on the airwaves. Like if there were a podcast award
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: for how the host manages the traffic on the show,
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: I feel like I would totally win that award. Don't
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: you think so professional? Is Kevin answering? What's happening? We read? Yeah,
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: we're ready, Kevin? Who do you got the King Vikings? Wow?
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Plus five? I think we're at five and five and
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: a half? Whatnot? Are you getting a good number? Oh yeah,
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: we're the only five and a half out there. There
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: you go, halfs, there you go. I like it. I
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: like it a lot, alright, I like, uh, nice job, Kevin.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: He killed it today. I'm gonna take the Detroit Rock
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: City Lions plus ten. I guess the Los Angeles Rams.
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: I do like it too. That is some sharp betting, folks.
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Action Network. You
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: can download our free app. You can listen to the
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: podcast from Apple podcast and Radio dot com or wherever
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. I am Chad Millman. We podcast Monday,
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Wednesday and Friday, and listen to me on Friday when
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: black Jack Fletcher joins the show to talk about our
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: five picks for the Westgate Las Vegas Puper Contest. Lean
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: one point four million dollars m