Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Conference Championships

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NFL Gambling Recap | Conference Championships · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Is exciting.
0:18
Speaker 1: Today's our Championship weekend recap episode. I am Chad Milman.
0:25
Speaker 1: I am joined by my bff, my companion, my compadre,
0:28
Speaker 1: my co host, professional vetter Simon Hunter Eto so Imon.
0:34
Speaker 2: Hi, Chad.
0:36
Speaker 1: I'm giggling not because things went well for us. You
0:41
Speaker 1: love the Ravens. I was afraid to bet against Patrick Mahomes.
0:44
Speaker 1: Thank god. I loved the Niners at minus six and
0:48
Speaker 1: a half. You were all in on the Lions. I
0:50
Speaker 1: got back door. You were right on that one. We
0:54
Speaker 1: got a lot to break down. I'm giggling because even
0:57
Speaker 1: though I had a middling day, I had nine Ers
1:00
Speaker 1: Chiefs at twenty two to one to make the Super Bowl.
1:04
Speaker 2: Wow, what ahead.
1:06
Speaker 1: Before the season began?
1:08
Speaker 2: And I would all that's crazy.
1:13
Speaker 1: I would all to data from our very own Evan Abrams,
1:19
Speaker 1: who reminded us before the season began that now it's
1:24
Speaker 1: ten of the eleven. The past eleven Super Bowl combatants
1:32
Speaker 1: had odds of twelve to one or less to make
1:37
Speaker 1: it to the Super Bowl when the season began. So
1:40
Speaker 1: I basically just bet the five teams that had those
1:43
Speaker 1: odds to play each other in our own little round
1:45
Speaker 1: robin and nine ers Chiefs was twenty two to one.
1:51
Speaker 2: There you go.
1:52
Speaker 1: Crazy, so I don't care we lost so much. As
2:01
Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
2:04
Speaker 1: sixty five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do you ordinary.
2:07
Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with
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Speaker 1: never ordinary at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty
2:27
Speaker 1: one or older and present in Colorado, IIOAH, New Jersey, Louisiana, Ohio, Virginia,
2:32
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
2:35
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
2:38
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right, before we get
2:43
Speaker 1: going forever. When I was doing the podcast behind the Bets,
2:49
Speaker 1: the original sports betting podcast that we started at ESPN
2:54
Speaker 1: when it was me and Scooch hosting bookmaker Bob Scucci,
2:58
Speaker 1: who I had covered and profiled in my book The
3:01
Speaker 1: Odds twenty five years ago, and then when he was
3:05
Speaker 1: at the Stardust and then he became the headbook maker
3:07
Speaker 1: at the Orleans. We used to do a contest called
3:10
Speaker 1: the get Your Prop Up in Vegas Contest, and listeners
3:15
Speaker 1: could submit their ideas for props, and it's the one
3:21
Speaker 1: that scooched like the best you put up on the
3:22
Speaker 1: big board at the Orleans. We'd take a picture and
3:26
Speaker 1: somebody will have played bookmaker for a day and Scooch
3:30
Speaker 1: and his team would have been taking real action on
3:33
Speaker 1: a prop that one of our listeners had sent in.
3:36
Speaker 1: Our good friends at bet three six ' five are
3:40
Speaker 1: willing to take a listener's prop. They are willing to
3:44
Speaker 1: take action on a prop bet for the Super Bowl
3:48
Speaker 1: that one of our listeners sends in. Here's how it
3:53
Speaker 1: has to work. It has to be something actionable, it
3:57
Speaker 1: has to be something objective. It has to be something quantifiable.
4:02
Speaker 1: For example, one year, Matt Mitchell, when the Eagles were
4:05
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl, submitted, who will have more whether
4:10
Speaker 1: it'll be will the Eagles score more points than there
4:13
Speaker 1: are steps on the that Rocky ran up in the
4:18
Speaker 1: movie Rocky, right, So that's something that we can count.
4:22
Speaker 1: That's something that he called it the Rocky prop. That
4:24
Speaker 1: is something that bookmakers will get excited about because it
4:28
Speaker 1: has a cool title. So you have to think of
4:30
Speaker 1: something that can be counted that is objective and quantifiable.
4:36
Speaker 1: But it's got to have a fun title. If they
4:39
Speaker 1: don't have a fun title, people aren't going to pay attention.
4:41
Speaker 1: Email podcasts at Action network dot com. Matt Mitchell will
4:47
Speaker 1: see all of those. I'll remind you about everybody at
4:50
Speaker 1: the end of the show. All right, our big balls,
4:53
Speaker 1: Simon says, was Kansas City at Baltimore, Baltimore minus three
4:56
Speaker 1: and a half. The entire professional betting universe was on
5:00
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Everybody was convinced. The line moved from three
5:03
Speaker 1: to three and a half to four to four and
5:04
Speaker 1: a half. Some places got as high as five. As
5:06
Speaker 1: we did. Convince me this morning, Simon, look, I said,
5:13
Speaker 1: I was afraid to bet against Patrick Mahomes. I tried
5:15
Speaker 1: to find all the ways to bet on the Ravens
5:18
Speaker 1: without actually betting on the Ravens. Other than the under
5:22
Speaker 1: none of them really worked. But this was the ultimate
5:27
Speaker 1: head versus emotion game. Right, Everything about the way things
5:31
Speaker 1: had gone said to us, play the Ravens. But it's
5:34
Speaker 1: hard to pull the trigger on that bet against Patrick Mahomes.
5:38
Speaker 1: And last week we were trying to decide Lamar Jackson
5:43
Speaker 1: over the hump. Has Patrick Mahomes finally got a team
5:47
Speaker 1: that isn't good enough And I think we see that
5:51
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes can pretty much do anything and Lamar Jackson
5:55
Speaker 1: this was self destruction across the board.
5:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, part of it feels like the Chiefs played possum
6:03
Speaker 2: the whole regular season, and a part of it feels
6:06
Speaker 2: like the Ravens had their worst game in two seasons.
6:09
Speaker 2: Like if you look statistically, they haven't had that bad
6:11
Speaker 2: of a game in over two years. So yeah, yeah,
6:16
Speaker 2: that's gambling on a sport that has a one game, winner,
6:20
Speaker 2: take all kind of game like Mahomes and that offense
6:26
Speaker 2: drove the field, scored two touchdown the back to back possessions,
6:29
Speaker 2: and then did nothing for the next three quarters and
6:32
Speaker 2: they won and it wasn't even close. They won by
6:35
Speaker 2: double digits. So it's it's football. Like we talk all
6:39
Speaker 2: the time, Tom Brady Belichick, there was something special there.
6:43
Speaker 2: Clearly we're in the middle of this Mahomes Andy Reid
6:46
Speaker 2: run and it's incredible, like they did just enough to
6:50
Speaker 2: beat the Bills. And same with Ravens today. It's like,
6:54
Speaker 2: as much as we want to say that it's all
6:57
Speaker 2: about Mahomes, it was like it's that little more playoff Lamar, like,
7:02
Speaker 2: I can't believe I fell for it after one game
7:04
Speaker 2: against Houston where it's like, that's my whole thing with
7:07
Speaker 2: him is I just don't trust him in the playoffs
7:09
Speaker 2: and total meltdown by him the offensive coordinator in harball,
7:14
Speaker 2: Like you said, hardball skates. I don't know how he
7:17
Speaker 2: keeps skating when he keeps having these kind of meltdowns
7:19
Speaker 2: with the team. It's like you don't know what to
7:22
Speaker 2: say to this guy to get him out of his
7:24
Speaker 2: own head. Like once Lamar starts snowballing in these playoffs,
7:27
Speaker 2: he can't pull himself out. It's crazy, like all the
7:31
Speaker 2: players are there and everything that could have went wrong
7:34
Speaker 2: went wrong for the Ravens and the on other side
7:36
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs just cool Colm, collective. I mean, they
7:39
Speaker 2: showed nothing like Adrey literally hit his playbook that whole
7:42
Speaker 2: second half. He was like, I don't need to do anything.
7:45
Speaker 2: These Ravens are just beating themselves here. So yeah, Kelsey,
7:49
Speaker 2: what was it ten catches at one hundred yards.
7:51
Speaker 1: At eleven catches in the game. Well, look, we talked
7:56
Speaker 1: about this, right, Like, we thought, are the Chiefs that
8:01
Speaker 1: have played well the past three, four or five weeks?
8:05
Speaker 1: Are they playing bad defenses? Are they getting good spots?
8:09
Speaker 1: We actually had the conversation, how do we know that
8:12
Speaker 1: this isn't a team that has turned it around after
8:15
Speaker 1: getting receivers trained up for the past sixteen weeks and
8:20
Speaker 1: then finally gets them in the right spot. How do
8:23
Speaker 1: we know Travis Kelcey isn't going to get to be
8:26
Speaker 1: his old self. And this defense is a scoring defense
8:31
Speaker 1: is insane. I mean they just they swarm and they
8:35
Speaker 1: cover and their pass rush is so good at so
8:39
Speaker 1: many times, and they're just they're smart. What they're doing
8:42
Speaker 1: is historic as a scoring defense.
8:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's like the opportunities are there, Like the
8:52
Speaker 2: Ravens could run the ball. I think you know, Gus
8:57
Speaker 2: Edwards had a big run in that first quarter. Maybe
9:00
Speaker 2: it's just like he feed him the balls, I.
9:04
Speaker 1: Guess said was over forty and a half. They gave
9:05
Speaker 1: him the ball once in the first quarter. He gained
9:08
Speaker 1: fifteen yards. He had two more carries, And I was
9:12
Speaker 1: paying attention because I'm like, this doesn't make any sense, no,
9:15
Speaker 1: that this is a running team in bad weather against
9:20
Speaker 1: a terrible run defense, and they weren't even pretending to
9:26
Speaker 1: run the ball, like they had their third down back
9:29
Speaker 1: and Justice hill in on nearly every play. So then
9:32
Speaker 1: I went back and counted they ran the ball the
9:35
Speaker 1: running backs eight times the entire game. They weren't even
9:39
Speaker 1: like running the RPOs. It was honestly irresponsible. I like
9:44
Speaker 1: that as good as Todd Munkin was all year. The
9:48
Speaker 1: way he called that game is fireable.
9:51
Speaker 2: Hey panicked. I mean, that's there's no doubt if you
9:54
Speaker 2: go through that what you just talked about, it's like
9:57
Speaker 2: this is someone that got overwhelmed by the moment and
9:59
Speaker 2: the had what essentially looks like a panic at that
10:02
Speaker 2: because it's like he had an outbody experience. He's been
10:05
Speaker 2: the same way the entire year, called it the same
10:08
Speaker 2: way all season, and all of a sudden, now he
10:12
Speaker 2: goes away from that, like it's just just bizarre, but
10:16
Speaker 2: we talk all the time. It's it's the Mahomes effect,
10:19
Speaker 2: Like that's at the bottom of all this where we're
10:22
Speaker 2: talking about. I told you he was a model breaker,
10:24
Speaker 2: just like Tom Brady. You're on the other sideline, you
10:28
Speaker 2: are Lamar Jackson. You're looking across the field and Todd
10:31
Speaker 2: for this matter, and you're looking at Mahomes and you're thinking,
10:34
Speaker 2: I need to do more. I need to force the
10:36
Speaker 2: ball more. And it's like it's like its own type
10:38
Speaker 2: of defense. It's crazy. I really can't believe it. Where
10:42
Speaker 2: it's like the Ravens had the defense, they were matchup wise,
10:46
Speaker 2: it was all there, Like even as that game went along,
10:48
Speaker 2: once the defense settled down, they played well, the Ravens defense.
10:52
Speaker 2: I mean Kyle Hamilton, best player in the game, like
10:54
Speaker 2: that guy every stop they needed, Yeah, like incredible, how
10:58
Speaker 2: good he was so just heartbreaking. Where the Ravens had
11:01
Speaker 2: all the pieces, it was all there, and like you said,
11:04
Speaker 2: the OC failed them and Lamar failed them, Like Lamar
11:07
Speaker 2: just man, like he's gonna have to wear this. And
11:11
Speaker 2: it's another reason, I mean you joked, we didn't. I
11:14
Speaker 2: didn't put a single bet on their future for Super Bowl.
11:16
Speaker 2: I don't think you did either.
11:17
Speaker 1: I didn't so sure that I didn't, by the way,
11:20
Speaker 1: I almost always do.
11:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, but we both I think we talked in the summer.
11:23
Speaker 2: It was just like, I can't trust Lamar in the playoffs.
11:26
Speaker 2: If it's Joe Burrow or Mahomes, I can't trust him.
11:29
Speaker 2: And then somehow I became a fucking idiot and I
11:32
Speaker 2: didn't bet on my homes a four and a half
11:34
Speaker 2: and it's like, I just don't I can't believe we
11:36
Speaker 2: didn't take the four and a half where we both
11:38
Speaker 2: said it to each other where it's like this number's
11:40
Speaker 2: gutten too big? What can we do? And I joked
11:43
Speaker 2: with you. I had bookmakers texting me being like you
11:45
Speaker 2: want to take the chiefs and like, you know, I'm
11:47
Speaker 2: puffing my chest out now. I'm good with the three
11:49
Speaker 2: and a half three. I don't need to do anything.
11:51
Speaker 2: And it's like, man, that that Mahomes number. What a
11:55
Speaker 2: winner for the books.
11:57
Speaker 1: Yeah, I listen. I take no pride in saying that
12:02
Speaker 1: I didn't bet against Mahomes because I also wasn't courageous
12:06
Speaker 1: enough to bet on Mahomes. I just sort of decided
12:09
Speaker 1: to let it skate. You mentioned Kyle Hamilton one series.
12:14
Speaker 1: This was Kyle Hamilton, same series, three straight plays, deep
12:19
Speaker 1: coverage pass defense, stopped a guy at the line of
12:24
Speaker 1: scrimmage on a screen, blitzed Mahomes and rushed him in
12:29
Speaker 1: one of the few times he was unsuccessful in the
12:32
Speaker 1: first half. That's one series for Kyle Hamilton. Meanwhile, we
12:37
Speaker 1: talked about this defense and we talk about it doing
12:42
Speaker 1: historic things. In the first fifteen minutes of this game,
12:48
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes was eleven for eleven and had the third
12:54
Speaker 1: longest drive of his career and also, by the way,
12:58
Speaker 1: in this game, had a play that lasted nine point
13:02
Speaker 1: seven eight seconds the fourth he was just scrambling around,
13:06
Speaker 1: finally found Kelsey to convert a first down, fourth longest
13:10
Speaker 1: play in the NFL this season. Jim Natz made a
13:13
Speaker 1: great point. He goes at the Olympics this summer, there
13:17
Speaker 1: will be people who run the one hundred yard dash
13:20
Speaker 1: in less time then that play took Patrick Mahomes to make.
13:26
Speaker 1: He's a fucking code breaker. It's just like there's something
13:30
Speaker 1: about the dude. He's the dude.
13:32
Speaker 2: It's like, yeah, just and he makes is again as
13:36
Speaker 2: lucky as they are. He makes his luck happen where
13:39
Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, that play with Kelsey, you know there's
13:42
Speaker 2: only there's no I don't know who else can make
13:45
Speaker 2: that where they're falling down they throw it the only
13:48
Speaker 2: spot that Kelsey catching Kelsey Shoelace grabs it right like
13:51
Speaker 2: he like pulled it into himself. And it's just like
13:55
Speaker 2: you said, that's a Hall of Famer to a hall
13:57
Speaker 2: of famer that came out. The moment wasn't too big
14:00
Speaker 2: for them, just just incredible. Where you know this this
14:07
Speaker 2: Mahomes team is scary in the sense that he's doing
14:11
Speaker 2: it with such I mean not no talent, but like
14:14
Speaker 2: their best offensive lineman was out, like the wost thing
14:17
Speaker 2: is crazy that they just keep winning. It keeps plugging
14:21
Speaker 2: along here in these games. So yeah, like that we
14:25
Speaker 2: got to own it, got to wear it. But luckily
14:29
Speaker 2: the under came through. But yeah, the Ravens first half
14:32
Speaker 2: dumb bet, Ravens full game, dumb bet. It's just it
14:35
Speaker 2: was never in doubt if you took the Chiefs. They
14:37
Speaker 2: controlled it from the first nap all the way on.
14:38
Speaker 2: I think right three and out for the Ravens, Mahomes
14:41
Speaker 2: gets the ball, drives the field. Anyone anyone sitting there
14:44
Speaker 2: on the Ravens ticket already felt like a loser. They're like,
14:46
Speaker 2: all right, but pretty much debt, like, unless they drive
14:50
Speaker 2: the field here and get seven, we're dead. And the
14:52
Speaker 2: exact opposite happened. They kicked again, Mahomes gets the ball,
14:55
Speaker 2: drives the field and just totally took the air out
14:58
Speaker 2: of that Ravens stadium. So yeah, kudos to everyone that
15:02
Speaker 2: message us and listened to us, and they said, I
15:04
Speaker 2: took that lesson. You told us never bet against my
15:06
Speaker 2: om's the dog. You are the smarter betters than me
15:08
Speaker 2: and Chad.
15:09
Speaker 1: Today Ravens completely self destructed. They just did. They were
15:13
Speaker 1: deer in the headlights. Were not ready for prime time.
15:16
Speaker 1: What a difference in how the game was coached?
15:19
Speaker 2: Does that not fall in the head coach?
15:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah it does.
15:22
Speaker 2: It does. It has to.
15:24
Speaker 1: What a difference between how the teams were prepared, how
15:27
Speaker 1: the team's played like this.
15:29
Speaker 2: We have a whole off season, but you think Belichick
15:31
Speaker 2: lets his team come in at home and have that
15:33
Speaker 2: kind of game. It's just it's just hard for me
15:36
Speaker 2: to wrap my head around that hardball is going to
15:38
Speaker 2: keep skating after these brutal losses.
15:41
Speaker 1: Multiple personal fouls on the final drive in the first
15:43
Speaker 1: half to pat the chiefs and field goal position. Dumb
15:46
Speaker 1: get the extra three like a personal foul on the
15:50
Speaker 1: final drive to get them closer to ceiling. It like
15:54
Speaker 1: this was a poorly coached team, poorly prepared team, bad
15:58
Speaker 1: play calls. This team was not ready for the moment.
16:01
Speaker 1: Lamar has not been ready for the moment. We will
16:04
Speaker 1: remember this next season when they get to the playoffs
16:07
Speaker 1: and we are telling ourselves, no, this is different because
16:10
Speaker 1: this team is so dominant. Look, the truth is the
16:12
Speaker 1: Ravens we did not. Nobody felt like they were a
16:15
Speaker 1: dominant team all year. They consistently won against good teams,
16:19
Speaker 1: but they weren't like the juggernaut team of years past,
16:21
Speaker 1: where you feel like it's automatic. This team is better
16:25
Speaker 1: than anybody else. We made a mistake. We're gonna own it,
16:27
Speaker 1: We're gonna wear it. We're gonna I mean I did.
16:29
Speaker 2: I'll be honest, I did drink the kool Lader. It's
16:31
Speaker 2: like if Lamar showed up in the playoffs, I was like, Okay,
16:34
Speaker 2: now they have the offense because they have the defense.
16:36
Speaker 2: Like you saw that defense. They got playmakers all across
16:39
Speaker 2: the board, it was just kill Lamar take that next step,
16:42
Speaker 2: and I feel like an idiot, like I drank the
16:44
Speaker 2: kool aid because he played so well in that second
16:47
Speaker 2: half against Houston, I should have known. It's like, just
16:50
Speaker 2: because he beat up on a Houston team that was
16:52
Speaker 2: a year early doesn't mean that he figured it all out,
16:54
Speaker 2: and clearly he hasn't.
16:59
Speaker 1: The next game gut wrenching personally. I almost hedged and
17:06
Speaker 1: bet the Lions on the money line before the game
17:08
Speaker 1: because I had this ticket where I was gonna make
17:12
Speaker 1: a decent amount of money on the matchup of the
17:15
Speaker 1: Niners in Chiefs, which I now knew. I had half
17:18
Speaker 1: the matchup set at twenty two to one, and I
17:21
Speaker 1: was thinking about waste to hedge in those fifteen minutes
17:24
Speaker 1: between the games, and then I was like, fuck it,
17:28
Speaker 1: Niners are gonna win this game. So I didn't bet anything.
17:32
Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden, I'm like, are you
17:33
Speaker 1: kidding me that I didn't hedge this, And the whole
17:36
Speaker 1: time I'm thinking the Niners are not out of this game,
17:40
Speaker 1: like they've still got their shots. And this ended up
17:44
Speaker 1: being a crazy game. The Lions had most the most
17:46
Speaker 1: rush yards in the first half ever against the Shanahan team,
17:50
Speaker 1: the Niners defense could not step anything Detroit did, and
17:53
Speaker 1: then the second half goes Niners field goal, fourth down stop,
17:59
Speaker 1: deflected fifty one yard pass, two plays later, touchdown, Lions fumble,
18:04
Speaker 1: Niners touchdown. Josh Reynolds dropped a perfect pass to keep
18:08
Speaker 1: the drive going. Then the Lions can't feel the punt
18:12
Speaker 1: to back the Niners up to the two. Then a
18:15
Speaker 1: field goal for the Niners, then a turnover and downs,
18:18
Speaker 1: then a touchdown for the Niners. Twenty seven straight points.
18:22
Speaker 1: They're up by ten, and then they give up the
18:24
Speaker 1: back door and that felt like a kick in the dick.
18:30
Speaker 2: I don't know. I would say you'd have to just
18:32
Speaker 2: be happy even be invited to the party. I mean
18:34
Speaker 2: pretty insane. You had a chance to cover a minus
18:37
Speaker 2: six and a half and you're down seventeen at half,
18:41
Speaker 2: and yeah, like Campbell again, well it'll be debated all offseason.
18:47
Speaker 2: This is why we love talking football because it's like
18:49
Speaker 2: so it's so opinion based. In little games like this,
18:52
Speaker 2: there's a million little things you can really give shit
18:55
Speaker 2: to Campbell for the biggest one to me is the
19:00
Speaker 2: drive the field to start the game, start the second half,
19:02
Speaker 2: they kick a field goal, so your defense did their
19:04
Speaker 2: job again, you get the ball back, you drive the
19:06
Speaker 2: field and I know it's not his fault. The he
19:09
Speaker 2: dropped that ball, right, That wasn't the greatest pass. He
19:11
Speaker 2: should have caught it. But it's like, you know, things
19:14
Speaker 2: happen there.
19:14
Speaker 1: You talk about Josh Reynolds in that conversion, Yes.
19:16
Speaker 2: Talking about Reynolds there, but the Campbell part of it,
19:19
Speaker 2: it's like, why not take the three again? You take
19:22
Speaker 2: the three, you're once again, you're up seventeen, which is
19:24
Speaker 2: such a mental thing. Instead he drops it. Now the
19:28
Speaker 2: team's down fourteen with the momentum, and that was the
19:31
Speaker 2: momentum flipper. Like then you have the stupid IU play
19:33
Speaker 2: off the helmet and that's game like football. I mean
19:38
Speaker 2: we say it a million times, that Giants team, if
19:40
Speaker 2: they play that Patriots team one hundred times, how many
19:43
Speaker 2: times do they actually win it? Right? And it's all
19:45
Speaker 2: about that helmet catch where it's like that momentum flipped
19:48
Speaker 2: right as soon as that Tyree caught the ball on
19:50
Speaker 2: his helmet, it flipped. Same thing here with you catches
19:54
Speaker 2: that ball. Every guy in the forty nine ers is
19:57
Speaker 2: like we're feeling it, and you saw the Lion's sidelines
19:59
Speaker 2: just deflated, like they're like, oh my god. So now
20:02
Speaker 2: they get a touchdown. Now it's seven. And like you said,
20:05
Speaker 2: Campbell puts the rookie in. I don't fault them for
20:08
Speaker 2: putting the rookie in, but by fault them for putting
20:10
Speaker 2: the rookie in and running up the middle where Montgomery
20:12
Speaker 2: is getting big chunks up the middle, why not give
20:15
Speaker 2: it to him up the middle. So it was like,
20:17
Speaker 2: you know, Ben Johnson trying to be too smart. All
20:19
Speaker 2: of it brutal, but at the same time, how many
20:23
Speaker 2: more chances did the Lions have? They still could have
20:26
Speaker 2: won that game in multiple different ways, and they just
20:29
Speaker 2: kept couldn't stop helping themselves. So I'm sick for Lions fans.
20:34
Speaker 2: I mean, I think we both feel. It's like, you know,
20:38
Speaker 2: every fan base suffers, they them and the Browns got
20:41
Speaker 2: to be one and two for the most suffering. Like
20:43
Speaker 2: the type of teasing they got y just brutal, Like
20:48
Speaker 2: that was like if someone that had the money line
20:50
Speaker 2: the Lions. Not that I'm counting my money, but it
20:53
Speaker 2: was just like, I mean, we're good here, like this
20:56
Speaker 2: is the best case. It could play out right now
20:59
Speaker 2: and really fell apart. But shout out to our sponsors
21:02
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Speaker 1: Bet three six five. All season is long has had
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Speaker 1: automatically cash is crazy. Nice magical number for sure. Good
21:32
Speaker 1: for Shanahan, good for this team to have two games
21:36
Speaker 1: in a row where in high pressure situations.
21:40
Speaker 2: Yeah they come back.
21:41
Speaker 1: They have come back, and it's so interesting, like brock
21:47
Speaker 1: Purty does not look like Patrick Mahomes when he's making
21:50
Speaker 1: a comeback like this. But Brock Perty's in his first
21:55
Speaker 1: full season of starting and he's got his team in
21:58
Speaker 1: the super Bowl and he's not. They're not in the
22:00
Speaker 1: super Bowl because he was managing the game. They're in
22:04
Speaker 1: the super Bowl because he was making plays like he
22:07
Speaker 1: made a similar to play Lamar Jackson on that Za
22:10
Speaker 1: Flowers touchdown, had a guy come over the top, grab
22:14
Speaker 1: him by the back of the shirt. He was able
22:15
Speaker 1: to get out of it. Throw that ball to z Flowers.
22:18
Speaker 1: Rock Party had a similar play. He had guys on
22:22
Speaker 1: his back, spun out of it, looked like he was
22:25
Speaker 1: throwing it away and threw a dime to use check
22:28
Speaker 1: on the sideline. Who made a beautiful catch, you know
22:30
Speaker 1: with toe tapping on the sideline. Yeah, and that kept it.
22:33
Speaker 1: That was the beginning of a drive to keep a
22:36
Speaker 1: drive going.
22:37
Speaker 2: And.
22:39
Speaker 1: Garoppolo wasn't making those plays right, Like, this is something
22:43
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan. We don't want to love rock Purty, but
22:45
Speaker 1: I love Rock Party. It's not pretty, but he's purty.
22:50
Speaker 2: Yeah, we like Purdy. I think it's more that forty
22:53
Speaker 2: nine ers fans want to puff their chest down and
22:54
Speaker 2: be like, say, Perty's top five, and it's just hard
22:58
Speaker 2: to say that with Purdy. Where it's like, is it
23:01
Speaker 2: the system, is it the players? Is it Party? And
23:03
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, I think me and
23:04
Speaker 2: you all everyone agrees it's both Like he is not
23:08
Speaker 2: the He's never gonna be the best guy in the league, right,
23:10
Speaker 2: he never will never have those physical attributes, but over time,
23:14
Speaker 2: who knows like he could end up being a Drew
23:16
Speaker 2: Brees type. But right now, what I like from Party
23:20
Speaker 2: in this game was that he did not have it today.
23:22
Speaker 2: He did not have it throwing throwing wise, he was
23:25
Speaker 2: making bad reads and in that second half, whatever they
23:28
Speaker 2: said to him, they said, dude, the whole middle of
23:30
Speaker 2: the field is open if you want to pull it
23:32
Speaker 2: down and run. Pull it down and run. I feel
23:34
Speaker 2: like that changed everything the second half where it's like
23:36
Speaker 2: the defense was dropping so far back into coverage, he
23:40
Speaker 2: was getting pressure on him. He was thinking, you know what,
23:42
Speaker 2: I make one or two guys miss year, I got
23:43
Speaker 2: no one else up the field. And on top of that,
23:46
Speaker 2: he was making dudes miss Like I can't believe it,
23:48
Speaker 2: but PERTI was putting moves on dudes. Dudes are diving
23:50
Speaker 2: all around him and he's picking up and after ten
23:52
Speaker 2: to fifteen yards or so. Yeah, incredible game by Purty,
23:56
Speaker 2: back to back incredible games. And if you're a four
23:59
Speaker 2: nine ers fan, like, yeah, this is the dream, Like
24:01
Speaker 2: you've gone through the dark days of Nick Mollins and
24:05
Speaker 2: lining yourself about Jimmy Garoppolo. You found a legit gem
24:10
Speaker 2: who has two comeback playoff wins. Now like Chad just said,
24:13
Speaker 2: in his first season starting and you found him at
24:15
Speaker 2: the last pick in the seventh round. So just this,
24:18
Speaker 2: sky's the limit for this team now, like this is
24:20
Speaker 2: also the start of another team that could be beginning
24:22
Speaker 2: of a dynasty, right, we could get used to seeing
24:24
Speaker 2: this matchup with the forty nine ers and the Chiefs,
24:26
Speaker 2: cause it's like, you know, both great, both great front offices,
24:30
Speaker 2: both have great quarterbacks, and now both have great coaches.
24:34
Speaker 2: Where it's like, you know, what was it four or
24:37
Speaker 2: five years ago? We had the zac same matchup and
24:39
Speaker 2: Garoppolo could not make the throws, so you know, the
24:42
Speaker 2: forty Niners should have won it. He couldn't make the throws.
24:45
Speaker 1: Had the guy? Had the guy? Yeah, I had the guy,
24:49
Speaker 1: had the guy and it was just outside his hands.
24:52
Speaker 1: He had him wide open middle of the field for
24:54
Speaker 1: the game when he touchdown. Had the guy.
24:56
Speaker 2: Every every sky I talked to, everyone I talked to
24:58
Speaker 2: inside Football said, Kyle was cursing Garoppolo's name that whole offseason,
25:03
Speaker 2: and what do you do? He went out the next
25:05
Speaker 2: year or two years later, went to the draft, win
25:08
Speaker 2: got his guy with a third pick overall, and it
25:10
Speaker 2: didn't work with that obviously, but with the Pretty thing,
25:13
Speaker 2: it has worked. So it's like Shanahan knew he needed
25:15
Speaker 2: to make a change, like he knew Garoppolo got him there,
25:18
Speaker 2: and like same thing with the Rams getting off golf.
25:21
Speaker 2: It was like these these coaches put themselves out there
25:23
Speaker 2: and it's all about them believing the quarterback, and clearly
25:27
Speaker 2: he believes him pretty like he's even if you watch
25:30
Speaker 2: his second half, I know the turn of Rocks to
25:31
Speaker 2: helping the aukelm catch, but like he really wasn't changing
25:35
Speaker 2: the game plan. They came out. I think they fed
25:37
Speaker 2: the ball to m McCaffrey like he stayed in himself, Shannon,
25:39
Speaker 2: which I'll give him props for. It's like he didn't
25:41
Speaker 2: freak out to start, just having Pretty throw it three
25:44
Speaker 2: straight times every drop back. So yeah, right now I
25:48
Speaker 2: get it for fans feeling good and we're about to
25:50
Speaker 2: dive into this world series, I mean the Super Bowl
25:53
Speaker 2: to talk about it for the next two weeks, But
25:54
Speaker 2: it's like, man, how many times could this four nineers
25:57
Speaker 2: team get away with the Chad like back to back
26:00
Speaker 2: come back wins? I think we all see they are
26:04
Speaker 2: They're not like we talked about. We talk about these
26:07
Speaker 2: great one seeds. They're not an unbelievably dominant one seed, right,
26:11
Speaker 2: they do have some elements them to be attacked on.
26:14
Speaker 2: So I can't wait to break down the next two
26:16
Speaker 2: weeks of this game, just because I don't think it's
26:18
Speaker 2: as clean cut as people think, where it's like, oh, well,
26:21
Speaker 2: you're getting the forty nine ers under a field goal,
26:22
Speaker 2: just take the forty nine ers. I don't think it's
26:24
Speaker 2: that simple.
26:25
Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The
26:27
Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't
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Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. All right, do a little housekeeping
26:37
Speaker 1: recap here, not great, Simon says in Big Balls Baltimore
26:41
Speaker 1: on his three and a half executive decision san Francisco
26:43
Speaker 1: minus seven Ron, Robin Baltimore or San Francisco Simon. I
26:49
Speaker 1: know it's playoff time. Book life is full of distractions
26:53
Speaker 1: right now in your world, but that's still not a
26:57
Speaker 1: good excuse for forgetting the fastest growing ticket in the
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27:58
Speaker 1: We got ourselves a matchup. We got the Can City
28:00
Speaker 1: Chiefs and the San Francisco forty nine ers. The line
28:04
Speaker 1: opened at niners minus three. It immediately moved to two
28:09
Speaker 1: and a half. I would not be surprised if while
28:12
Speaker 1: we've been talking it moved down to two. Simon on,
28:15
Speaker 1: you got the three I was not fast enough. I
28:17
Speaker 1: got the two and a half betting on the Chiefs.
28:20
Speaker 1: As Tony Romo said on the broadcast, if I'm a bookmaker,
28:24
Speaker 1: I don't know how I make Patrick Mahomes an underdog ever.
28:29
Speaker 1: Right now. Patrick Mahomes including three game including the playoffs,
28:35
Speaker 1: the past two games in the playoffs ten one and
28:39
Speaker 1: one in his career as an underdog, three and zero
28:45
Speaker 1: straight up as an underdog, including one super Bowl victory
28:51
Speaker 1: the last two playoff games. As Stucky emailed Matt Mitchell
28:56
Speaker 1: or Matt Treber NFL editor, It's gonna be a boring
29:00
Speaker 1: two weeks because no one's going to bet against Patrick
29:02
Speaker 1: Mahomes ever again.
29:05
Speaker 2: Yeah uh, And I'd piggyback on. The Funny thing is
29:08
Speaker 2: like I was talking to another pro earlier in the week,
29:11
Speaker 2: and you know, I was trying to hear his side
29:13
Speaker 2: of why he likes the Chiefs, and he basically just
29:16
Speaker 2: kept it very simple. And he was one of the
29:20
Speaker 2: people that bet heavy on Mahomes against Tom Brady in
29:22
Speaker 2: that Super Bowl when he lost, and unlike most people
29:25
Speaker 2: that'd be burned by that, he couldn't have been more
29:28
Speaker 2: in love with Mahomes after that game. Because of how
29:30
Speaker 2: Mahomes played and how he just never died. So he's
29:33
Speaker 2: just been getting fat betting Mahomes and these playoffs these
29:37
Speaker 2: last couple of years, and even this year. He kept
29:40
Speaker 2: saying it's different in the playoffs, and I kept saying him,
29:42
Speaker 2: They're not a different team. This is the exact same thing.
29:44
Speaker 2: But I'm telling you, they played possible. They had to
29:47
Speaker 2: have played possible. They played us like a bunch of fools,
29:50
Speaker 2: just because you said the offense looks so easy right now,
29:53
Speaker 2: Like Mahomes feels like you said that. Ravens opening first
29:57
Speaker 2: two drives, like he did whatever he wanted, like he
29:59
Speaker 2: was just in such a zone. I mean, he's got
30:01
Speaker 2: bodies flying all around him. He's so unshook, he's so
30:04
Speaker 2: calm in the pocket, just stepping on his toes, stepping around.
30:07
Speaker 2: It's crazy. So yeah, two of the biggest public books
30:12
Speaker 2: in America right now plus two and a half. Go
30:15
Speaker 2: grab it, Like this isn't going up? Is it really
30:17
Speaker 2: gonna go back to three? No, the professionals we're gonna
30:19
Speaker 2: slam that. That's why it's no longer a three. The
30:22
Speaker 2: two and a half won't last. I mean, I haven't
30:26
Speaker 2: modeled it out, But I know my model is gonna
30:28
Speaker 2: like the forty nine ers. But he just said it
30:30
Speaker 2: last week, like fuck the models. I'm sick of the model.
30:32
Speaker 2: Tell me to go against my homes, I don't care.
30:35
Speaker 2: So I'm almost positive it's gonna be minus one, minus
30:37
Speaker 2: one and a half the forty nine ers. I'm gonna
30:40
Speaker 2: love the Chiefs here in this spot just because of
30:43
Speaker 2: what everything we talked about. And the biggest one will
30:45
Speaker 2: be when the pressure is the tightest, when everything is
30:48
Speaker 2: going wrong, who is the coolest, dude? It's my homes.
30:51
Speaker 2: And the super Bowl is that times a thousand, Like
30:55
Speaker 2: everyone talks about it if you've never been to it before.
30:58
Speaker 2: It's different than the playoffs, it's different than everything else.
31:00
Speaker 2: It's its own little world, especially during that halftime of
31:03
Speaker 2: thirty minutes. Like you imagine party sitting in there with
31:06
Speaker 2: a ten to seven lead at halftime for thirty minutes,
31:09
Speaker 2: thinking the'se like thirty minutes away from being a super
31:11
Speaker 2: Bowl champion. It's just it's all gonna point to mahomes.
31:13
Speaker 2: So I'm pissed. Like you said, I wanted the three
31:16
Speaker 2: to pop again just because I only got a penny
31:19
Speaker 2: down chat like those those look ahead lines. The books
31:21
Speaker 2: are taking nothing on it. So yeah, I'm hitting as
31:24
Speaker 2: many two and a halfs as I can right now.
31:26
Speaker 2: Just because you just said, I don't see this going
31:28
Speaker 2: back up to three. I can only see this going
31:30
Speaker 2: down the public. The pros, everyone got burned on that
31:34
Speaker 2: Raven's bet, and they're just like me and you, We're
31:37
Speaker 2: just terrified of betting against Mahomes. So yeah, the rest
31:40
Speaker 2: of our lives are gonna be pretty easy. Chad Mahome
31:42
Speaker 2: is the dog. You already know we're betting. I'm done,
31:45
Speaker 2: I'm done going against it.
31:47
Speaker 1: Is it amazing? Even last year we were like having
31:50
Speaker 1: the biggest debates about Patrick Mahomes and are we gonna
31:55
Speaker 1: bet Patrick Mahomes as an underdog against the Eagles? And
31:59
Speaker 1: we went with Eagles. And it's like, teams get tight,
32:05
Speaker 1: Teams got tight against Tom Brady.
32:07
Speaker 2: They know I'm seeing a couple of ones now, a
32:09
Speaker 2: couple of ones already popping people. Really, this is yeah,
32:12
Speaker 2: this is running. As soon as we get off this call,
32:15
Speaker 2: I'm about to make fifty calls. I'm gonna have to
32:16
Speaker 2: keep trying to get these two and a half so
32:18
Speaker 2: I can But it's it's they're disappearing. It's like everyone's
32:22
Speaker 2: in the same boat. Like I'd rather lose. I rather
32:25
Speaker 2: lose on betting on the homes than lose betting on
32:28
Speaker 2: brock Party. And that's that's just basically gonna get now.
32:31
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna talk about the total here. That's gonna
32:33
Speaker 2: be my favorite thing to talk about this week.
32:35
Speaker 1: This total.
32:36
Speaker 2: I love. I love the early total. They opened it
32:38
Speaker 2: at forty seven and a half. Again, we're not gonna
32:41
Speaker 2: spend too much time on it here, but people already
32:44
Speaker 2: know the way I'm thinking under. It's it's just fun
32:47
Speaker 2: taking Super Bowl under, especially when you have one of
32:50
Speaker 2: the better defenses in the Chiefs Spags, one of the
32:53
Speaker 2: better minds in football, going up against Shanahan. Like, I
32:55
Speaker 2: just love everything about it. So yeah, just it's gonna
32:58
Speaker 2: be fun breaking this down for the next two weeks.
33:00
Speaker 2: It's it's definitely not a dud again, Lions fans, I
33:03
Speaker 2: cry for you. It's just brutal. The more I think
33:07
Speaker 2: about it, I can't believe the Lions aren't the ones.
33:09
Speaker 2: But yeah, the the best two teams in the playoffs
33:12
Speaker 2: definitely deserve to be here the most. No doubt chiefs
33:16
Speaker 2: forty nine ers so well deserved. So yeah, can wait
33:20
Speaker 2: to break down these two teams.
33:22
Speaker 1: By the way, you're saying under forty seven, I am
33:27
Speaker 1: seeing in some classes under forty nine, right, so.
33:34
Speaker 2: I'm seeing two books forty nine, But I don't know
33:36
Speaker 2: if that's our app glichen Okay, it could be running up.
33:39
Speaker 2: It could be running up. I would love that. But
33:42
Speaker 2: I'm seeing most books forty seven and a half.
33:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think you might be right.
33:46
Speaker 2: We might again if that's what it opened at. That
33:48
Speaker 2: makes sense. The pros came in and hit the under.
33:50
Speaker 2: I just I haven't. I haven't hit it yet, but
33:52
Speaker 2: I'll definitely be on the under. Hoping if a lot
33:56
Speaker 2: of books are forty nine, that'd be amazing to get
33:58
Speaker 2: the fifty, but happy to take the under of forty nine.
34:01
Speaker 1: Now now I'm seeing forty seven and a half.
34:05
Speaker 2: D K.
34:06
Speaker 1: One of the books was at was at forty nine,
34:11
Speaker 1: but I think it's quickly moved.
34:14
Speaker 2: It's already down to forty seven and a half. I
34:15
Speaker 2: just opened that book.
34:16
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think the most important thing that we
34:21
Speaker 1: can try to discuss here is that Taylor Swift has
34:27
Speaker 1: a concert in Japan on Saturday, February tenth. It will
34:34
Speaker 1: end around one am Saturday night, Japan time, which means
34:40
Speaker 1: that she will be able to get to the Super
34:43
Speaker 1: Bowl in time on Sunday.
34:48
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, she'll be there.
34:52
Speaker 1: I mean she's going to be there.
34:54
Speaker 2: We're talking about millionaires in their first world problems like that.
34:58
Speaker 2: That girl's going to be there. I'm not worried about it.
35:01
Speaker 2: But yeah, this is the football, The football's dream is happening.
35:05
Speaker 2: They got Taylor's swift in the super Bowl.
35:08
Speaker 1: It's the best. Super excited about that, Super excited about
35:15
Speaker 1: this game. We're gonna have a lot to say about it.
35:18
Speaker 2: Two weeks.
35:19
Speaker 1: You got two weeks. We'll be back at it on Tuesday.
35:21
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36:11
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