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NFL Week 3 Gambling Picks, Don't Overthink It, Do or Die For Some · Three For The Money

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after a two -day free trial. I did see something
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that the cost for the premium membership is going
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up So definitely hop on their current price before
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the the new price gets in and you'll be locked
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in to to whatever pricing that is so Yeah, do
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that Okay. So anyway, it is now week three in
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the NFL season to recap I guess my record from
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last week. I did end up going four and five if
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you count All the picks I gave out on on Twitter
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because I didn't give out a Monday night pick
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I Don't think anyone did but I'm counting that
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too. So at four and five not terrible Better
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than Saturday where I think I won two bets out
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of like eight So that was not fun But I did a
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little bit better on Saturday night on Sunday
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and then and then Monday Monday was fun. Monday
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was good Lost my surefire I Thought the Chiefs
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could really stop Danny Dimes but they I mean,
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I mean they won the game so they did whatever
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they needed to do but Don't know. I feel like
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that game shouldn't have gone into overtime Just
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look at just looking at that matchup Obviously
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it did need to go to overtime because that's
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how the game played. Anyway, I'm getting ahead
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of myself here. Chris. How are you? I'm alright.
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I did had a pretty rough weekend. I think I went
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six and ten Thursday to Monday. I mean it was
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just Bad one, I sure fire those. That was good.
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2 -0 on those on the season. I just had some
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really bad luck with injuries. I mean, Jackson
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Dar, I bet Giants plus six and a half. Jackson
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Dar gets hurt, possibly out for the season. Bet
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Manders plus three and a half. Jan Daniels gets
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hurt, possibly out for the season. I bet Bears
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minus five and a half. Worst injury of them all.
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Kayla Williams, I mean, just carted off just
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in a teary. mess, brutal, brutal injury. You
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might not ever play football again. So, yeah,
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it's just really rough all around. But you know,
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ready to bounce back this weekend. What's so
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funny, Sean? Nothing. Terrible. He's laughing
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about Kayla. Hey, that's a serious injury, man.
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I thought he was like dying. Yeah, like the the.
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The source that came out about his injury, for
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people that don't know why I'm laughing, is that
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he had just a hamstring injury. Just a regular
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old hamstring injury. But he got carted off the
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field. He tore his ACL, MCL, groin, Achilles.
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It did look like, when he was carted off the
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field, he may never play football again. That
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was the vibe. I was like, oh no. This guy...
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What a terrible terrible thing to happen it honestly
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like first thought was like Luke Keighley when
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he got card off like the last game his life and
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he was just Weeping and just like yeah. Thank
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you to the fans. I mean, that's exactly what
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Kevin Williams was doing but yeah, I think I'm
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gonna play on Monday, but But yeah brutal not
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a good week ready to bounce back though Sean
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had she too Yeah, so ups and downs for sure Thursday
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it did pretty well. I think on Sunday I went
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like five and nine I Bet the whole NFL board
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again if you didn't see on Twitter Because I
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went 14 and four on Saturday Shout out the trend
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center not a not a single thought of my own But
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from the Trends Center, just a complete shout
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out. And then last night, I went up 15 units
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just on Devonte Adams alone. I did not share
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this in the group chat. If you didn't see the
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Twitter, I gave out Devonte Adams any time touchdown
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and Devonte Adams two touchdowns. Well, on DraftKings,
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they're Thing is different the way that you bet
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like any time first and then second. It's usually
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like first First is first like first touchdown
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is first any time is in the middle and then Two
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is on the right Correct yes So on draft Kings
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first was in the middle so I accidentally Bet
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Davante Adams first touchdown boosted it 50 %
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to 825 Put half a unit on it 110 units like Fucking
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go crazy. Yeah, when you said you went up 15
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units I was like I was like I'm not gonna question
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you but I'm no mathematician I don't say and
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you put a half unit on a plus 500 But I also
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Devont like drafting or fan duel was doing a
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player to catch a pass and on the first drive
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And they they had a boost for that. I boosted
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Vonte on that as well and that was like plus
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120 something so Devante Adams I'd like need
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to buy a Jersey or a hat or donate to your charity.
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Something go to Taco Bell. I did that today,
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so there you go. I did round up this time. I
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usually I usually don't round up, but it goes
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right to Devante. Alright, we're good. So shout
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out Devante Adam. See you. when me he pretty
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much saved my I was already having a pretty good
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weekend, but Sunday kind of kicked me in the
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teeth a little bit, but We're back. You got a
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hope who can stay sir Yeah, I mean like if you
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if you think about it like Stafford is such a
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creature of habit that he's always gonna go to
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his like most like his best receiver Like that
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year him and Cooper Cup were like, but buddies
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He didn't have anybody else but Cooper Cup who
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else was on the other side van Jefferson Like
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I'm pretty sure that was like the only other
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guy they signed that guy from the Bears I forget
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his name or at the moment but our only reason
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I really remember is because I bet him to score
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And that in his first game with the Rams I think
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it was on Thursday night or first of night football
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or something like that and he didn't even Stafford
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even look his direction. I remember being pissed
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off. You're saying Matt Stafford's a racist.
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He like there's a Cooper cup in that Skoronsky
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fucker. Yeah. Yeah. It was, I mean, was a, was
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Higbee on that team? Higbee still on the Rams,
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right? He'd be still on the Rams. He's one of
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like the 20 tight ends they got. Yeah. They do
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have a lot of tight ends. Oh yeah. Like, I mean,
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when, when Pook is out, you just hammer Devante
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like. On any line that you like and it's probably
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gonna hit oh Yeah Okay, well there it is unless
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you had more Well, I was just gonna say last
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year when puka was out Devante had three touchdowns
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So I mean it was just like the he's a creature
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of habit like he's just gonna go back to Devante
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again so boys Where my dog's at? Okay, well there
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it is. That's week two. We're all doing okay.
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All right, we're still here and we're still gonna
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gamble. Gambling on week three. Let's get into
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it. First game on the bill. Chargers at the bills.
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Didn't plan that intentional I Didn't plan that
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bills our home favorites by by seven points currently
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over under is fifty and a half The bills look
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like the best team in the NFL And the Chargers
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look like complete dogshit. I I think I heard
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something that like the Chargers have like the
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the third hardest schedule in the past 10 years
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or something. And they have the number two hardest
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schedule this year, which I feel like that math
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is not math thing. But anyway, who's to say?
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I mean, they started out their season against
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the Cardinals and the Raiders. Yeah. And they
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lost and they lost their season coming up. Like
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Will's right. It is a fucking gauntlet. Yeah,
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these were like the first two games were like,
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got only kind of like to guaranteed. Yeah, I
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mean, they lost but like the two like must win
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games, or your frauds games. So they have a gauntlet
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coming up here. So. But yeah, chargers can't
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really put anything together right now. The bills,
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it seems like they have everything put together.
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I mean, their defense isn't that great. But you
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know what, that's kind of been the the story.
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It's been the Josh Allen show. Maybe it's recency
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bias, but it just feels like Josh Allen is doing
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more than last year and the previous years. I
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don't know if that's true, but they've scored
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a lot of points. And for that reason, I'm gonna
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go the over over 50 and a half. It feels very
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high because the bills can score so many points
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and like the chargers where they're at in the
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season right now with the roster that they have
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and uh all the money they've put into coaching
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and shit this is kind of like if the chargers
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don't figure shit out on offense right now they're
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done they're done for the season they need to
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figure some shit out they're not going to be
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able to stop the bills and the bills aren't going
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to be able to stop the Chargers unless they figure
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it out. So I like the over over 50 and a half.
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It's high. I think this game could be pretty
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fun. I don't know. That's what I got. Chris,
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what do you think? I mean, yeah, this is the
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gut check of all gut check games for the Chargers.
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So I'm going to take him plus seven. Sort of
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a similar mindset to the Sunday Night Football.
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We're just like the Chiefs look unstoppable.
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The Colts look like dog shit. It's never that
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easy. I feel like it's kind of the same mindset
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here. I mean, the Chargers have to, I mean, ideally
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you would want to win this game. That's probably
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not going to happen, but they got to at least
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be competitive because they have looked like
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just dog water through first two weeks against
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a bad team. I mean, Raiders 2 -0, maybe they're
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not that bad, but I don't think they're that
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good. But yeah, I think, yeah, Buffalo's defense.
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Fine not great. I think Herbert kind of needs
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to show out and Yeah, there's some a lot of good
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stats for this game Harbaugh in his career as
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an FL head coach is 16 and 5 straight up and
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15 and 6 against the spread and the coaching
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in the Eastern time zone So he's he's had California
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teams both stints in the NFL. He's done good
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on the East Coast There's also a billion trends
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on trendsetter for this one my favorite one It's
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called NFL away underdogs flow against the spread.
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It's got 10 parameters, but it is one 29, 67
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and three all time. Um, seven and three in the
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last 10. So sort of a plug your nose game, uh,
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chargers, keep it close. They absolutely have
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to. So chargers plus Sean, what you got? Um,
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I, I agree with you, Chris. Um, I kind of want
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to take the chargers full -time spread. I'm going
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with the Chargers first half plus four and a
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half. This is the time that I think the Chargers
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maybe can turn it around, at least cover in this
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game. But I mean, damn dude, they've been six
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point favorites or more in the first two games,
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lost in both outright to Cardinals and Raiders
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as we said. I just kinda like this one to stay
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close early on. I'm gonna play it safe. Also,
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I come with a stat for the fellas. Justin Herbert
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is 24 and 8 against the first half spread as
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an underdog in his career, including 8 and 1
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over the last three seasons. Like that. How long
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has he been? This is 6 years? Damn. Where's the
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time go? I know. He was just a bowl of it. He
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was a 2 -0 wasn't he? Seen the same draft class
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as 2 -0? I feel like 2 -0 has been in the league
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forever. I could be wrong with that, but I thought,
15:13
I thought he was. Who's to say? We can figure
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that out later. 2020. Yeah, that was when it
15:24
was him, 2 -0 and Burrow, wasn't it? Yep. Yeah.
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We're to a Herbert Love, Jalen Hertz. Second
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round. Damn you Jalen Hertz. There it is. Okay,
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moving on. Next game, Bengals at the Steelers.
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Steelers home dogs by three and a half points
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over unders 42 and a half. Chris, I'm gonna let
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you take the lead on this one. All right. I'm
15:56
going to lay it with the Bengals, minus three
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and a half. I think they are just better, significantly
16:00
better in pretty much every aspect of this game.
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Pittsburgh offense is dead. The Corps of Aaron
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Rodgers cannot throw the football. It's borderline
16:09
elder abuse what they're doing to this guy back
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there. He's been sacked six times already in
16:15
the season four last week. I think Cincinnati
16:18
will be able to get after him. Pittsburgh's defense
16:22
is fine, but I mean, Cincinnati has weapons.
16:25
They've faced this defense a billion times. They
16:27
know they can beat them. I know this road, divisional
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favorites, especially three and a half, usually
16:35
doesn't pay off. I just, the Steelers are so
16:39
bad. I don't think there's any saving them, honestly.
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And I mean, this ain't Mike Tomlin's Steelers.
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He used to be taken as home dogs, free money.
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I think that, I mean, they're just terrible.
16:53
Bengals, I think, probably by touchdown, but
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I'll take my third and a half. Will, what are
16:57
you thinking? I think the exact same thing. I
17:00
think the Steelers probably have the worst offense
17:02
in the league, which is saying something coming
17:08
from a Titans fan. But they were like last game
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they scored. They didn't even score a touchdown,
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did they? They scored like two field goals. I
17:20
mean, the total went under comfortably because
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I had that as my surefire, but I don't think
17:25
this one. 26. Yeah. Score is 26. Or maybe they
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did score a touchdown. I just didn't know. It's
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too close, I believe. Yeah. I know it's week
17:36
two and I'm still in that not trying to overreact
17:41
mode, but the Steelers look like absolute dogshit.
17:44
The Bengals. put it together defensively. They
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they're like, not bad, not bad, not bad. So I,
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I agree with Chris, I like the Bengals minus
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three and a half here. Steelers look so bad.
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That's really all I got. It's not like the charger
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would like to charges look like shit too. But
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like there's Things there like you know, Justin
18:15
Herbert is expectations. You know they have talent
18:18
on that offense. I where is it like where are
18:22
like points going to be coming from with this
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Pittsburgh like DK is only as good as the guy
18:27
who's thrown in the football and I mean old man
18:30
Rogers. It's sad at this point. So yeah, didn't
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mean to jump ahead of Sean, but I was just wanting
18:35
to throw that in there in terms of not overreacting.
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I don't wanna overreact, but this looks like
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the worst football team ever made. I don't wanna
18:48
overreact, but this team is dog shit. It got
18:52
me pretty good. This team sucks so bad. Sorry,
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Sean, go ahead. It's okay. I think we've been
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famously against the Bengals for a few weeks
19:03
this season. But you know, as well as I do, when
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the Bengals get rolling, they're gonna keep rolling.
19:12
I'm going to also be back in the Bengals at minus
19:15
three and a half here. A little stat from our
19:18
friends at the Trends Center. When the Bengals
19:21
are favored on the road, they are 32, 12, and
19:25
two against the spread. And that is all time.
19:30
That's historically. So they weren't favored
19:33
on the road all that often until Joey B got there.
19:38
So I'm just going to follow the numbers and keep
19:41
rolling with the Bengals. Ready to roll ready
19:45
to roll. Okay next game Vikings at the Bucks
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the Bucks are home dogs currently by one and
19:53
a half points the over -under is 42 and a half
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Sean I'll let you take the lead on this Okay
20:00
Going with the Vikings Minus one and a half until
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the Bucks can prove me. Otherwise, I'm pretty
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much done betting on them to do anything but
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lose straight up or against a spread. In this
20:15
case, both. Will, what do you have? I understand
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your thought process. However, I'm going the
20:27
exact opposite. I'm betting on the Bucks because
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even though like, let's see, the Panthers have
20:35
a win and the Saints have a win now. Their division
20:41
is kind of wide open still But if they lose this
20:45
game, I think that it's kind of done for that
20:48
similar to the Chargers I don't think I think
20:51
they might be saying bye to their coach and Because
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I don't know if you guys remember but like last
20:59
season they went on a super big hot streak and
21:01
then they just crashed and burned like the last
21:04
eight games of the season and They're still on
21:08
that losing streak They are at home And I'm like,
21:12
you know, I don't know fuck it. Let's take bucks
21:15
money line There was only there only one point
21:17
one at one and a half point dogs If you don't
21:21
win this game, I think you got to say goodbye
21:23
to the coach or you got to say goodbye to someone
21:26
You already got to say goodbye to your season
21:28
because if you don't win this game you're done
21:31
Now I'm trying not to overreact but that is how
21:36
I feel I don't know. Anyway, it's only money.
21:38
Chris, what do you think? I like it. I never
21:42
really thought I'd say this in a game with that
21:45
features Baker Mayfield, but I'm taking under
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forty two and a half. Both of these offenses,
21:49
I mean, Tampa in particular, just uninspiring.
21:54
They can't really do anything. I know Minnesota,
21:58
they've had to roll with Carson Wentz pretty
22:00
much the entire season. Kyler got hurt really
22:03
early on and he's supposed to be coming back
22:04
for this game. But I mean, it's Kyler Murray.
22:09
Like, even if they win this game, I don't think
22:12
they're going to be lighting up the score. Tampa
22:15
Bay's defense is fine. But I think they can keep
22:18
Kyler in check, especially like they can pretty
22:21
much only throw the football like they can't.
22:23
I know Kyler can run, but their running game
22:25
has not been great. So I think this game is going
22:28
to kind of suck and it pains me to say that in
22:31
game with Baker, but there is a fantastic trend
22:34
from the transfer on this since 1990 Minnesota
22:38
games, weeks one through three with totals over
22:41
35, the unders 47, 20 and one eight and two in
22:46
the last 10. So I'll be taking under 42 and a
22:50
half. There it is. Okay. All right. Moving on.
22:55
Uh, next game. in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It's
23:02
the Ravens at the Cowboys. Well, it's a neutral
23:06
side game. It's in Brazil. The Cowboys are three
23:10
point underdogs, quotes at home, over unders
23:14
52 and a half. Chris, did you know that this
23:19
game was in Brazil? I did not. That changes things.
23:25
I don't really know how. was like reading stuff
23:28
about this guy was like, wait, this games in
23:29
Brazil. How did I miss that? Also, they haven't
23:35
said nobody has said that at all. It hasn't been
23:38
marketed. Well, yeah, I'll say that. And like
23:41
they don't. They're not supposed to put these
23:43
like in the middle of an NFL Sunday. Supposed
23:46
to put these at like, you know, before the games
23:48
are start going or I mean, it's like, you know,
23:51
it's still kind of like our time zone. So like
23:54
they could do it like They could make it like
23:56
a like a night game But they didn't So we're
24:03
in the afternoon But alright so To recap from
24:10
last week. So the Ravens lost to the Saints They
24:15
got all their shit shucked up and then the Cowboys
24:21
Sort of beat the shit out of out of the Manders
24:25
Jayden Daniels goes down with another injury,
24:28
similar injury to the one he had last year. We'll
24:32
see what happens with that. But the Cowboys,
24:37
they also lost two defensive starters in that
24:40
last game with the Manders. Let's see here. I'm
24:45
going to take the Ravens minus three in this
24:49
spot. I did find the stat. On this trend center
24:53
app, uh, I forgot about this Uh, but it's it's
24:57
something that we've mentioned here on the show
24:59
previously But lamar straight up is 25 and six
25:04
against nfc opponents Now i'm not taking them
25:07
to go straight up. I'm taking them to cover the
25:09
spread here, but I feel like three points It's
25:13
not going to be too bad. It's not going to be
25:14
too hard. Uh, it's it's like This is the only
25:18
way that I see this game kind of going because
25:22
I thought about the total and it's like, okay,
25:25
both of these offense, both the offenses have
25:28
scored have scored pretty decently throughout
25:32
this, this, this current season here, but it's
25:36
a it's it's in Brazil. I don't like that. But
25:40
then on on one hand, probably going to be a similar
25:44
time zone, so it's probably not gonna be too
25:45
much of a change, which bodes well for the over.
25:48
But at the same time, it's you're still traveling.
25:51
You're still still jet lagged because you're
25:53
just been on a plane for so long. I don't know
25:56
how long the flight is but But like long plane
26:01
rides kind of suck, I don't know I'm just a regular
26:05
guy anyway and the Cowboys like I mentioned they
26:09
did they did lose two defensive starters and
26:12
I think that this is a pretty good bounce back
26:14
spot for the Ravens All right. I've said too
26:17
much Sean. What do you think about this game?
26:21
I'm going with another first half bet I haven't
26:25
taken a total yet today. So Let's have fun in
26:29
Rio first half over 26 and a half This total
26:34
opened at 50 and a half. It's now up to 52 and
26:37
a half moving pretty fast So once again, I'm
26:42
gonna play a little safe by having fun in the
26:44
first half but in the first five weeks regular
26:49
season international series games the over is
26:55
13 and 6 if you didn't know I do now and the
27:05
Cowboys are 7 and 0 to the first half overs as
27:10
an underdog in the last two seasons so give me
27:15
the over that kind of for in the first half,
27:19
you get it over 26 and a half. Chris, what do
27:23
you got? I mean, I have over 52 and a half written
27:27
down back when I thought this was being played
27:29
in Arlington. I like that stat you just read
27:34
in the two seconds of Googling I did while Will
27:37
was talking. I saw Rio has experienced like record
27:41
amounts of rainfall in the last six weeks. So
27:44
I have to do a little digging on maybe some field
27:46
conditions. But, um, uh, as of now, fuck it.
27:53
I'll, I'll say over 52 and a half for now, but
27:55
yeah, check the Twitter for final pick, but yeah.
27:59
I'm glad you brought that to my attention as
28:01
well. Um, definitely check the Twitter for, for
28:04
that, for minus on that. The headline said like
28:07
no concerns over a field condition, but who knows?
28:12
That was like an, I think it was like a NFL.
28:15
Spokesperson or whatever said that so you mean
28:17
you mean the deep state? Yeah, exactly So I don't
28:21
know So tentatively right now over but we will
28:27
definitely do some more research on that There
28:30
it is big football making us think things that
28:34
they want us to think I Don't know because we
28:38
have to wait and see anyway next game Sunday
28:43
night Football the Rams at the Broncos at Broncos
28:47
home dogs by two and a half points over under
28:49
45 and a half The Rams kind of beat the shit
28:54
out of the Giants Because the Giants lost Jackson
29:00
dart and like the league neighbors Maybe or like
29:03
half the game or like the full game. Did he come
29:05
back? He came back, but he didn't really he didn't
29:08
do anything I don't know if that's really because
29:10
of his injury because Jamis Winston seemingly
29:12
forgot how to play football. I think it's the
29:16
latter. But but yes, so Rams look look amazing.
29:24
Obviously, teams that play against Jamis Winston
29:26
typically do. Where's I going with that? I don't
29:32
know. The Broncos won a football game, they beat
29:36
the Jags. 20 to 13. So, did you have the Jags?
29:43
I did have the Jags. The Jags had that game.
29:47
They had it. What happened? They had that game
29:50
wrapped up in a fucking bow. Trevor Lawrence
29:53
pissed on his leg. They just gave it away. You
29:57
can have it. It's exactly what Trevor Lawrence
30:00
said. So you can have it. the Denver Broncos
30:07
woke up. So yeah, Broncos look competent. It's
30:17
still week two, it's still early. We're still
30:19
figuring out who these teams are. I don't know,
30:23
I think the Broncos might be kind of like a fuck
30:24
shit team where like, I feel like if they get
30:27
a lot of bounces here and there, like they're,
30:30
they're just gonna find their way into the playoffs
30:33
somehow. That's just what it feels like to me.
30:38
I know it's a very specific feeling But hey,
30:41
who's to say? Chris I'll let you take this one.
30:46
All right This does kind of feel like an overreaction
30:50
line kind of feels ready, but I'm just gonna
30:52
take Rams minus two and a half I Don't really
30:55
have faith in Denver. They Look very bad this
31:00
season over against Kansas City And like Sean
31:03
said, they should have lost to Jacksonville until
31:06
Trevor Lawrence just gave that game away. So
31:09
I don't really have faith in Denver. Harvey and
31:12
Dobbins both banged up, so it could be all in
31:14
Bo next to win this game. And that can be terrifying
31:18
against really good defense like the Rams. So
31:21
I think this will be close in the first half.
31:24
I think obviously it's two and a half point spread,
31:26
but I just have more faith in the Rams as a whole,
31:29
as opposed to the Broncos. offense that when
31:33
it's not really clicking, they look lost. And
31:37
another trend from, from twin center, trend center
31:41
since 2023, NFC road favorites with a money line
31:46
of less than 200 and a total of 43 or more or
31:48
43 and 15 against the spread. So give me the
31:53
RAM. I mean, they, Rams look really fucking good.
31:55
So Rams must tune out against the Broncos. Sean,
31:57
what are you taking? I'm going with another total
32:01
keeping it simple for Sunday night football under
32:04
45 and a half It is the third is the Rams third
32:10
straight primetime game think about All has gone
32:16
under All the Rams have to do I know Australia
32:21
Forget about it. They got there that day forget
32:25
about it. But like all it seems like all the
32:28
Rams have to do Is to score enough points to
32:32
where the other team just gives up or it's just
32:34
like we can't win this game So the Rams can hang
32:40
30 on you and you can put up seven and you're
32:43
like, hey We tried I Don't know. That's like
32:48
like my mindset about this game because I mean,
32:52
I really don't have faith in the Broncos either
32:54
but Yeah Rams just They might be they might be
33:03
phenomenal. They might be a phenomenal football
33:04
team. I think that Australia game is going to
33:08
in the. Depths of the season when we look back,
33:11
I think it will be very much an outlier, kind
33:14
of just based on what McVeigh said. I think they
33:16
kind of approach that game with like scrap it.
33:20
I don't we do not care. Yeah, I think it was
33:22
a divisional game which is crazy, but yeah, yeah.
33:27
I just, they're whole like, even like after the
33:30
loss and they get back, it never like, I know
33:33
you can say like, oh, week one loss, whatever,
33:35
but they just seem like McVay, which is like
33:37
making jokes about, I was like, yeah, blame that
33:39
idiot coach who made it, who made us get there
33:41
two hours before the game started. They're just
33:45
very, I don't know. It just seems like they treated
33:47
that game like, Hey, whatever happens happens.
33:50
Let's just get back here and focus on the rest
33:51
of the season. Yeah. Not a bad play going under.
33:58
Will I Am also on the Rams minus two and a half
34:03
here. I also have a trend from the trend center
34:05
app early season NFL interconference clashes
34:10
with playoff teams 41 15 and oh against the spread
34:17
eight and two in the last ten that's on the Rams
34:19
So I'm gonna take the Rams. It's a very similar
34:23
number to Chris's stat there So Yeah, I mean
34:29
Rams just look really good There's there's really
34:33
not much. It's hard. It's hard to put money on
34:35
the Broncos right now. It's tough to do it So
34:38
I'm not gonna All right, there it is, there's
34:42
the main NFL slate we're talking about today
34:45
But now we have everyone's favorite segment and
34:47
that is the surefire double unit guaranteed not
34:50
to lose plays of the week I mean, I guess I'll
34:54
go first here It is the first game that we talked
34:57
about. I love this play. It's the over 50 and
35:01
a half in Chargers bills Chargers may have like
35:05
they kind of need to have the ability to put
35:07
it together offensively But if they don't the
35:11
bills can get us to where we need to go I think
35:14
the bills have scored like over 30 points in
35:18
Each of their last wins if I'm not mistaken Don't
35:24
even remember week one. It's been so long I don't
35:27
know it feels like if the charges to score 14
35:29
points like they have the last two weeks The
35:32
bills can get us the rest of the way there, and
35:34
I know that's a big number 50 minus 14 that's
35:40
36 Yeah, the bills could do that yeah, of course
35:44
double unit guaranteed not to lose play of the
35:47
week bills chargers over 50 and a half Let's
35:51
go Sean What is your surefire? All right It's
35:58
a game we've already talked about First I do
36:03
like the under in this game will you ready to
36:08
change your pick? The Bucks are currently on
36:14
an 11 game against the spread losing streak tied
36:18
for the longest against the spread losing streak
36:23
with the 1983 -84 Houston Oilers. Shout out.
36:31
Baker Mayfield has also tied for the longest
36:35
QB against the spread skid at 11. Todd Bowles
36:41
is also on the longest coaching against the spread
36:46
losing streak. The Bucks are 1 -11 -1. Against
36:53
the spread in their second straight home game
36:57
over the last five seasons and Also oh and four
37:04
against the spread in week three So so you want
37:09
me to talk money line instead of against the
37:10
spread. Is it the Bucks money line? Is that what
37:13
you're saying? I Mean underdogs they would have
37:18
to they would also All right. On top of that,
37:27
teams coming off a game against Ben Johnson are
37:31
14 and three and one straight up over the last
37:37
five seasons. That's interesting. Well, I mean,
37:45
Ben Johnson's like a pretty good fucking head
37:46
coach. So it's like. So it bounces back. Next
37:52
guy. Yeah. Well, I mean they they won against
37:56
Ben Johnson So it's not a bounce back spot oh
38:03
Wait was the stat when you win against Ben Johnson
38:06
or when no coming off just just coming off of
38:10
a face -off against Ben Johnson The Bears yeah
38:15
essentially over the past two seasons That's
38:23
pretty much it, it's Vikings minus one and a
38:26
half. Double unit guarantee not to lose. I mean,
38:32
I'll put it in the parlay. I got no problem doing
38:35
that. It's playing both sides. Yeah, so I win.
38:45
Maybe, hopefully. I mean, there's three legs
38:50
to this thing. I'm just, I'm just saying like,
38:56
Sean, are you going to throw it to Chris? Chris.
38:59
Yeah. I was obviously sitting over here. Chris,
39:04
what is your surefire guaranteed double unit
39:06
on to lose play? I'm happy you asked. I am two
39:10
and O on these things on the young season. So
39:13
to get it to three and O, we're going to go back
39:15
to a team. and a spot that I took a lot of also
39:20
a fair amount with surefires last season is the
39:22
Seattle Seahawks minus seven against the Washington
39:25
Manders on the road. Marcus Mario to get in the
39:29
nod as the starting quarterback for the foreseeable
39:31
future. He started eight games for the Manders
39:35
last season. He went two and six straight up
39:38
in those games. Only two of those losses were
39:40
by less than seven points. I've said this ad
39:46
nauseam. It felt like every time the Seahawks
39:48
were on the road, I took them last year. It's
39:49
because Mike McDonald's 1872 against the spread
39:52
on the road in his career. And also another juicy
39:56
little nugget I found on trend center. The Seahawks
39:59
are 26 and 11 against the spread in the last
40:03
37 years in week three. Pretty damn good. So
40:09
I'm gonna lay the touchdown with the Seahawks
40:11
on the road. Sam Darnold might be coming back.
40:14
If not, Drew Locke is slinging it. So I'll take
40:17
them against the hapless Manders minus seven.
40:20
Double unit guaranteed not to lose. Sam Darnold
40:24
injured his ass. Was it his ass? It's like a
40:30
deep tissue bruise in his in his glute region.
40:37
Is the scientific is the scientific term so he
40:42
he injured his ass pulled his ass Yes, he pulled
40:49
his ass so there that there it is there's a but
40:51
there's a parlay Chargers bills over fifty and
40:54
a half Vikings minus one and a half and the Seahawks
40:57
minus seven. I Don't see how this doesn't win
41:01
But alright Next thing We got our extra plays.
41:08
I only got two extra plays for this week. I am
41:13
riding Pat's unders until the cows come home.
41:19
Pat's Jags under 45 and a half. The Jags, I mean,
41:24
they haven't. I mean, they've they've done enough
41:27
to win games, but like they haven't really scored
41:30
a ton. Well, they they scored enough to win against
41:34
the Browns, which we're still Figuring it out
41:38
if the Browns are like not as bad as what we
41:41
think they are Because they want against the
41:44
Bucks, but are the Bucks bad who's to say? Anyway,
41:48
and then I have the Lions minus six and a half
41:50
against the Jets. I Think I think the Lions need
41:54
to flex a little bit. I think they need to pump
41:58
some iron and destroy a Bad team that needs to
42:03
be back where they belong in the bottom Below
42:06
500 Chris. What are your extra plays? Only actually
42:11
I've got three but I agree with you on the first
42:14
one Patriots Jags under 45 and a half or everything
42:16
you said New England's offense is just just Can't
42:21
generate explosive plays. I think the Jags are
42:23
just good enough to get by there's gonna be an
42:25
ugly game under 45 and a half And then skip ahead
42:28
to Monday Night Football Eagles Bears under 42
42:31
and a half Phillies offense has not really looked
42:35
too good against two of the worst defenses in
42:38
the league. So I have a hard time believing they're
42:40
going to magically turn it on against a Bears
42:42
defense. That's pretty good. Don't really know
42:47
for sure who's playing quarterback for the Bears.
42:50
Caleb Williams, I think it's technically questionable,
42:52
but I think he should play. I know the jokes
42:56
we threw at him earlier, but I think he will
42:57
play. But if he doesn't, Tyson Badgett is in
43:00
concussion protocol. So I don't, if Caleb Williams
43:04
can't go. And Badger can't, I mean, he's going
43:06
to sign somebody off the street. Um, so. Oh,
43:11
it is? Yeah. Isn't he like 50? He's not young.
43:18
I thought he was older when he played for the
43:21
Vikings, like 10 years ago. Yeah. Wow. Okay.
43:26
Well, he's a KCK. All right. Well, under 42 and
43:32
a half. I love that one. Also, Munda not under.
43:37
And the last one, Panthers minus two and a half
43:40
against the Browns. The Browns beat the Bucks.
43:45
Awesome. It was a lightning delay. Things got
43:47
weird. Also, the Bucks might not be very good.
43:52
So, Panthers minus two and a half against. It's
43:53
Cleveland's home opener. I don't really know
43:56
if home field advantage. if you can take it into
43:58
that much of an account when the fans are seemingly
44:02
actively rooting against the quarterback. So
44:06
I do with that what you will also the Browns
44:09
over the last five years off a win are eight
44:11
and 17 against the spread. So Panthers minus
44:14
two and a half. They just humiliated the Falcons.
44:18
So I like them to win this one. Yeah, I mean,
44:22
their defense was god awful in that first game,
44:24
but the offense has been humming. I'm adding
44:28
that. I really liking this Panthers team. They're,
44:34
they're fun. Yeah, this is a fun team. So yeah,
44:37
that's the card. Um, Sean, what you got you betting
44:41
that you spread the board again? Uh, we'll see
44:44
how Saturday goes, but I mean, the road to two
44:49
72 is not out of the question. I mean, I'm two
44:54
17th out of the way. two what is that math one
45:00
ninth i'm one ninth of the way already there
45:03
so i mean yeah yeah yeah that works yeah there's
45:11
there's been two weeks there's 18 weeks yes one
45:15
nine yep yep common denominators yep um yeah
45:20
um i don't know right now um i've got three Hatch
45:26
Jags, we're all in the grants under 45 and a
45:28
half I have Seahawks manders over 40 and a half
45:34
written down That Seahawks over burn me last
45:37
week But Seahawks Road Warriors They'll put up
45:42
points Plus I mean Marcus getting the start Sling
45:46
it I guess He's good for some points. I guess
45:50
but it could be a pick six still points Still
45:55
gets points on the board. And then I got Texans
45:58
Colts under 42 and a half divisional game. Both
46:03
these teams just might not be very good. I mean,
46:07
just I know that the Colts just hung 30, but
46:11
like, I don't really think that she's playing
46:14
all that well on defense, to be honest, but Texas
46:18
have a much better defense than the Chiefs do.
46:21
So, but could be a tight race. Could be a race
46:25
to 14, so give me the under 42 and a half. I
46:31
feel like I just got up at the board, so I don't
46:34
know. I have to see how Saturday goes. That's
46:36
the only way this works. If I have a good Saturday,
46:40
it's the only way I'm going to bet the NFL board.
46:45
But you got three responsibly, of course, yeah.
46:49
But the Panthers minus two and a half and then
46:51
I'll just win it back on Monday again like I
46:54
did. Yeah. The past two Mondays. It's that easy?
46:59
Sometimes. Sometimes it is, yeah. Whenever I
47:05
think that, it blows up in my face. Most of the
47:09
time, it's not that easy. Sometimes it is. Sometimes
47:17
it is that easy. Sometimes it is. You play with
47:20
the cards, you're dealt. Sometimes the cards,
47:23
you're dealt. Pretty good Sometimes not It's
47:30
also true Okay, all right, let's The bit is over.
47:36
Let's let's move on. Okay. So how do we feel?
47:41
about The Titans Because That game it ended and
47:51
Sure, I wanted to jump off a bridge but also
47:57
Felt felt kind of like progress, you know, like
48:02
it I just need like I needed I needed like an
48:05
hour I was like, alright We got we got two picks
48:09
in the game Not bad. Not bad at all Almost one
48:16
obviously didn't I Don't know feels like feels
48:21
like we're making progress Or maybe the Eagles
48:24
not as good. I don't know. Sean, what do you
48:29
think? I was gonna say, I was gonna say, like,
48:35
I know it's week two, we're trying not to shit
48:36
our pants. But when does the discussion of the
48:41
Eagles just might be mid? Like, come into conversation.
48:48
Last year they I think they're all because they
48:52
look Very mid like they don't look like, you
48:56
know Super Bowl champions right now. I know it's
49:00
week two but like At one point The Titans were
49:07
like projected to win that game Yes of Ken Ward
49:11
didn't get sacked. Yeah, they probably do. Yeah
49:16
So I mean I mean, you can't put Jalen Hurts in
49:21
the two minute drill with like no timeouts. You
49:27
just can't do it. And you can't have a secondary
49:30
like us against that type of situation. Excuse
49:35
you, Chris. No, no, it genuinely is. This chair
49:41
is like the most rickety fucking. thing Oh If
49:49
I ripped ass I would own it because that would
49:51
be hilarious especially like that that would
49:52
be hilarious No, that was the chair. Unfortunately,
49:56
I can try to drum one up But I mean like seriously
50:06
though like Eagles just might be like mid like
50:12
They might they they'll probably make the playoffs
50:14
but I don't know Yeah, if it feels like the offense
50:22
is still very much trying to figure out their
50:25
identity because like it still feels like they
50:28
want to be just kind of hard -nosed run -the
50:30
-ball kind of team, but I mean Saquon, I mean
50:34
he didn't have the best year last year That's
50:37
what but I don't know maybe I don't want to say
50:39
he's on the back side of his career But it could
50:41
be just he's starting to wind down. I don't really
50:44
have too many backups behind him who are like
50:46
bell cows. I Don't know. I think the Eagles offense
50:51
is pretty mid. But I mean, yeah Titans definitely
50:54
positives to take away. I like cam looked a lot
50:56
better offensive line was overall better This
51:02
defense is just awful It's like even if cam plays
51:09
very very well this season I don't know how we
51:12
went too many football games with this secondary.
51:14
It was Every single play it felt like other than
51:20
those two picks which honestly it's called spade
51:23
of spade were just very bad throws one of them
51:26
was forced because I think it was Jeff was getting
51:28
pressure on him, but They were they were bad
51:32
throws. It wasn't like DBs were making spectacular
51:34
plays the It felt like every single catch was
51:39
nobody was within five yards of a receiver. And
51:43
that was just very frustrating to know that every
51:46
time Hertz dropped back was probably going to
51:49
be an easy completion. So, I don't know, definitely
51:52
some positive stick away, but just... This defense
51:57
is just awful and it's really disheartening considering
52:00
how much money we spent and how good of a coordinator
52:03
or defensive coach Robert Sala is Nah that loss
52:09
that it definitely sucked But yeah after an hour
52:12
I was like, you know what I Don't feel as just
52:16
hopeless as last week and that's our thing about
52:20
the defense against like you know, I'm never
52:21
mind I'm pissed off again. So, yeah And like,
52:28
we can sit here and call the Eagles mid all we
52:32
want, but this was still an improvement. Like,
52:40
whether they're mid or good or not, like, this
52:44
was still a better effort, a better showing in
52:49
a hotter game. They were saying it was like 150
52:53
degrees on the field. They were, they were showing
52:56
on the TV, putting water on cleats to stop it
53:00
from melting. That's insane. Yeah. That's kind
53:06
of a workplace hazard. I was thinking that too.
53:08
Like when they were talking about like 155, that's
53:10
not like, Oh, ha ha. It's hot. And it's like,
53:12
how are people standing? Yeah. Like Sirianni
53:21
had to get an IV. The coach had to get an IV.
53:26
No. Soft. Yeah. Saul was wearing a hoodie too.
53:31
That was. I saw that. Bananas. I think, I think
53:35
that's good though. I think that means he's kind
53:36
of crazy. Oh, he is. He is a psycho. But. You're
53:43
always. That's not safe. Psychos are always better.
53:46
Well, maybe even maybe they'll rub off on this
53:49
dogshit defense at some point Yeah, and you know,
53:53
we got a lot a lot of young players too. So I
53:57
Think that's a factor as well. But hey, I don't
54:00
feel terrible. I don't I don't feel terrible
54:02
I don't feel great. But how do we feel a little
54:05
bit better? None of us bet it but how do we feel
54:07
about the tits this week James? I have to look
54:17
into that, I guess. I don't know. I will say,
54:22
just going back to Sunday, just for a quick second,
54:27
I had felt excitement from the Titans that I
54:32
had not felt in a long time. When Elic Aomanner
54:38
hurdled that guy, I literally jumped up from
54:42
my couch and was like... Like it was it was almost
54:46
like that year during covid when the titans played
54:53
the bills on tuesday night or wednesday night
54:55
and the famous derek henry stiff arm against
54:59
that bitch josh norman um i mean like i was i
55:04
i just like got up like out of instinct it was
55:09
just like I hadn't, I haven't done that in a
55:19
Titans game and I don't know how long. Like that
55:23
was like my first thought after I did it. I was
55:25
like, I don't remember the last time the Titans
55:28
made me feel this way. What is this feeling?
55:32
I will say in that sense, there is some improvement
55:37
that they're, they're making football fun for
55:42
me. Yeah. I had a like watching that game. I
55:46
mean obviously lost defense with ship and overall
55:50
I mean compared to last week ten out of ten like
55:54
last week. I was just I didn't crack a smile
55:57
the entire game but Sunday it was like okay.
56:02
This is like a football team that could maybe
56:06
win some games, but yeah in like third and 18
56:11
And then the target spheres just rips off a 20
56:14
yard run out of fucking nowhere. It's just like,
56:18
where the fuck is this? Where has this been?
56:21
Yeah, I was thinking that was like him. Sorry,
56:25
Tajay. That was he he owned. He he got back in
56:30
my good graces on Sunday. He played very well.
56:33
That was awesome. Yeah, I still want him on the
56:38
team. he actually like did his job and like caught
56:43
some balls too like yeah as a receiving back
56:46
like he he did that he doesn't have bricks for
56:50
him he showed that he can catch a ball pretty
56:54
big crazy pretty pretty big news guys hell yeah
57:00
i don't know like i was talking with my my boss
57:03
today and he was like And I haven't talked, he's
57:07
been out for like two weeks, but I told him how
57:12
we went to the Jets game and he was like, oh,
57:16
at least you didn't go to that Eagles game. And
57:18
I was like, I would have rather gone to the Eagles
57:20
game. He's like, why? And I was like, it's not
57:24
as, that Jets game was just an embarrassment.
57:30
At least we were like somewhat competent in the
57:33
Eagles. Like, we almost won that game. He's like,
57:39
yeah, you still lost. I'm like, great. Like,
57:42
yeah, I know. Like, that's what we do. Suck my
57:46
ass. That's nothing. Oh, we lost. Oh, we do that
57:50
all the time. I'm numb at this point. Yeah. I
57:57
don't know. He was trying to say that the Eagles
58:00
loss was... Worse than the Jets and I was like
58:04
there's absolutely no way that's true. There's
58:09
no way I Think he was factoring in the hope because
58:14
you know, it's he's not he's not a type of thing
58:18
Well, no, he was he was factoring secondhand
58:22
hope That he thought that you felt what you did.
58:27
I did fucking idiot can't believe I got it's
58:33
the I can't help I can't help it I can't help
58:36
which gets completely natural I can't help it
58:39
like I can't like I even said in the group chat
58:42
I'm like I'm trying not to get excited I'm trying
58:45
but like we have the we have a realistic possibility
58:50
of winning this football game right now and the
58:55
Chris was like I'm very excited and I was like
58:57
you know what I mean I am I mean, like. Yeah,
59:03
I mean, I was I was excited, but I was like something.
59:06
This is nothing good comes from this. So I knew
59:13
I knew what was going to happen, like part of
59:15
me knew what was going to happen, but fuck it.
59:19
Let's feel some joy. I actually like felt something.
59:25
Which is different, you know? different than
59:29
the last three years have been. It's just feeling
59:34
like shit all the time. Well, like, I mean, that's
59:37
what it is. That's being a Titans fan is at least
59:40
two years. I'll tell you like how my brain works
59:46
during like sporting events, especially like
59:48
teams that I like. When I'm watching them on
59:52
TV, if I'm in the stands, there's nothing I can
59:55
do. But if I feel like I'm at home, and I like
1:00:01
get nervous and I'll like start like getting
1:00:03
up and like pacing around and like just standing
1:00:06
you know cross -armed watching the TV and they
1:00:09
make a bad play and I'm like oh fuck I gotta
1:00:11
sit down they were doing much better than when
1:00:13
I was sitting down like that's how my brain works
1:00:18
and I know you can relate on some small instance
1:00:22
where it's just like fuck all right we just got
1:00:25
to chill out like just sit back down take a deep
1:00:27
breath It's fine. Oh, yeah. I mean there were
1:00:31
multiple instances in that game where I was standing
1:00:33
like a foot from my TV arms crossed like come
1:00:36
on gotta get like big third down here. I Didn't
1:00:39
budge from like just comparing it to the Jets
1:00:42
game I didn't budge from my seat other than to
1:00:44
go like take a piss the entire time because I
1:00:47
was like there is like what am I? Getting excited
1:00:50
like there's nothing to be excited about. So
1:00:53
yes, like And while most of the time when I was
1:00:56
standing up that close to the TV, I would end
1:00:58
up getting pissed off. It's still, it's good
1:01:01
to feel something. Yes. That is, I just, it's,
1:01:08
it feels, it feels good, but it also like, God,
1:01:15
what a sad, sad existence we have. Like just,
1:01:18
just to feel something is just got the bottom
1:01:23
of the barrel of a NFL. Sports fan like I mean
1:01:28
I Mean that if you're a Chiefs fan You can go
1:01:35
smoke a whole goddamn brisket on your Smoker
1:01:40
while the Chiefs play an entire football game
1:01:43
and you're like, oh, they're gonna win You know
1:01:45
what? I mean, like it's just like you don't really
1:01:47
have to really think about it Us it's like every
1:01:52
single week is a battle to just Be competent
1:01:58
just just to not fuck Yeah Yeah, and it's like
1:02:07
the same guy Who's watching the Chiefs if the
1:02:11
Chiefs lose? He's like no, I will we'll just
1:02:14
win the next one Yeah, and it's just like oh
1:02:19
it's only one game and it's like Brother we've
1:02:23
only got like 17 of these things Like every,
1:02:26
every, if this isn't the MLB, this isn't the
1:02:28
NHL, this isn't the NBA, like these games matter.
1:02:32
I only got one game this week. Yeah. We get 18
1:02:38
weeks of this plus four weeks in postseason.
1:02:41
And that's it. And then we die. And most of us
1:02:45
don't make it to the postseason. We die. Yeah,
1:02:49
we die in week 18. Sometimes we die before week
1:02:57
18 because we are mathematically eliminated Yeah,
1:03:02
I Thought we died last week I Mean, I think we're
1:03:09
still dead in the water. Oh, yeah, we're not
1:03:11
gonna do anything significant, but it's just
1:03:13
good to know we're not gonna get Railroaded every
1:03:16
game honestly think about it if you think about
1:03:20
it the Colts haven't won a game and The Texans
1:03:24
haven't won a game The Jags have only won one
1:03:27
game and the Colts and the Texans are playing
1:03:29
each other this week So only one of them is going
1:03:32
to win a game this week and the Jags I mean,
1:03:35
I Think that's a jazz up against the Patriots
1:03:38
jazz get defending AFC champions Colts Texans
1:03:44
fight themselves. We hit Jamis This is gonna
1:03:49
be see this is exactly this is exactly what's
1:03:55
wrong with the titans this is exactly what's
1:03:57
wrong with us like we're like all these scenarios
1:04:01
it's like but we get james it's like oh cool
1:04:04
oh he's gonna throw for 450 and three touchdowns
1:04:07
probably but if not and we win after week three
1:04:14
we will be tied for first division Last time
1:04:17
we played Jamus was like I think his like three
1:04:20
interception game Yeah, pretty sure you like
1:04:25
I Don't think he was on the books though. I think
1:04:28
it was the if it's the game. I'm thinking of
1:04:31
it's the bucks, but I Saying James three, you
1:04:35
know, like the nobody threads the needle like
1:04:38
Jamus. Yeah, that was yeah. Okay, okay And yeah
1:04:45
that that was That must have been How's that
1:04:52
that game? I mean he's been a backup pretty much
1:04:55
the entire time since Yeah It's been it was a
1:05:00
long time ago. Oh Wow eight years. It's probably
1:05:05
eight years. I mean No, it's probably I don't
1:05:11
know it doesn't matter long time my toe about
1:05:22
to eat this dub over james's dome did you see
1:05:30
his press conference no with me oh god um i think
1:05:38
it was today where he was like let me see if
1:05:43
i can find the quote yep james winston on being
1:05:47
the giant starter I gathered the guys and said
1:05:51
if one man has one crab leg, he's a mere mortal
1:05:55
But if that same man has 53 crab legs, he's an
1:05:59
unstoppable force He said he that's not like
1:06:06
I listened to the video like I I heard him say
1:06:08
those things from his mouth he said crab legs
1:06:11
Yes, that thing those things he famously stole
1:06:15
in college We're gonna lose by 50. We're gonna
1:06:19
lose by 50. That's a Jamus. That's, no, I don't
1:06:24
like that at all. That's a Jamus quote and I
1:06:29
don't want, I don't want Jamus feeling good before
1:06:32
he plays my team. Is this AI? Did AI get me?
1:06:38
Uh oh. Uh oh. I thought you said you heard him
1:06:44
say this. I know it's a video of him saying it,
1:06:47
but it looks. Oh shit, this is AI. It looks fucking
1:06:53
real guys. It's not even. It looks fucking real.
1:06:58
We all kind of got good. I mean, at least I.
1:07:02
That's some shit he would say though. Exactly.
1:07:03
That's what I was going to say. I took your word
1:07:05
for it. Was not even going to second guess that.
1:07:11
James is a wacky guy. I damn it. I'm glad this
1:07:15
at the end. Yeah, yeah. God. God. All right.
1:07:22
I'm gonna end it. Okay. Thank you so much for
1:07:25
listening. Thank you so much for watching. Really
1:07:27
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twitter. They're also a great follow that They
1:08:03
throw out picks like every day. Um Be sure to
1:08:07
check our twitter. Um on game days for updated
1:08:13
picks. I will be locking in my picks Thursday
1:08:17
because I'll be going out of town on Friday.
1:08:21
And I can't remember if they have a sportsbook
1:08:24
over there or if I can use my phone bedding over
1:08:27
there. So I'll be logging in mine a little bit
1:08:31
further in advance. So my lines might be a little
1:08:33
bit different. You go to Iowa? Yeah. Don't mean
1:08:37
to dox ya, but I'm pretty sure they have like
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online like all the normal apps, I think It's
1:08:47
gonna like seen it or that the casino is far
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away From where we are But anyway Follow us for
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