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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from Sassfin
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Securities in Johannesburg.
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David, we're not going to moan about Trump's attempted market manipulation by
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saying that
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China is going to have these tariffs on them because of rare earths and then
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suddenly he's the hero when there's a deal.
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We won't do that until later.
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Now I've done it, we may as well do it.
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Why does he do that?
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He wants to pretend to be the hero, fixing something that he broke, which is so
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irritating.
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You know, I think if we go back the whole year, it's been Trump on, Trump off, you
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know, Trump on, Trump off.
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It's been so difficult to read.
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And, you know, the latest story, I mean, you know, the 100% tariffs on
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China's withholding rare earths and magnets, you know, now that's reversed.
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That's not going to happen.
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You don't know from one day to the next.
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Even though he's flying around in his big, beautiful plane and stopping off in China.
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I mean, well, I think where is he in Malaysia at the moment?
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He's going off to Japan. He's even going to probably meet Kim again in North Korea.
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So he loves it.
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This is what he enjoys.
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He enjoys people loving him or coming to see him or being forced to see him.
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he's, So this is Trump at his best.
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But I mean, from a market point of view, I think the fact that he is trying to make
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peace with Xi and China,
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and hopefully they've got some kind of framework for a deal.
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I think markets are getting a little excited today.
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But where does it go next week?
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I have no idea.
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We've still got lockdown.
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You know what?
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We've still got lockdown in the United States.
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There's no further negotiation there.
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I don't know what's happened.
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I don't know the latest news.
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So, I mean, you know, we've negotiated this whole year.
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The fact that we're up where we are at the moment,
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it's quite remarkable against the news and the on and offs of Mr.
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Trump throughout the last 10 months.
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Anyway, today is one of those positive days.
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Yes, it is.
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I mean, it's also when you, if you were just a person that,
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looked at graphs and you didn't turn on the news and you looked at the graphs of
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various securities,
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various asset classes of 2025, you would say, goodness me, it's been a fantastic
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year.
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It just keeps on going up.
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There was that one very brief three-day blip in April, but you would say, well,
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that's perfectly normal.
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That's what happened.
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And that's what it is, David.
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Take away Trump.
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Take away the news.
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Take away the noise.
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take away the emotion which i get caught up with then it's just been a fantastic
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year hasn't it
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yeah it is i i is it justified you know you can't you can't look at markets from
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that point of view
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money there seems to be or appears to be a lot of liquidity that is finding its way
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into money and
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i have no doubt with gold coming under a bit of pressure that money will now shift
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back into the market i'm not sure it's going to go
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into bitcoin or something like that but it finds a place.
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And, you know, the stories,
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there's still quite a few stories that are abounding.
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AI is not over.
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More and more money is being spent in it.
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I'm looking at air travel.
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Money is being spent in air travel.
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You know, money is being spent all over the place.
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So businesses are not being put off by Mr.
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Trump, by his tariffs, by lockdown.
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down by any or shut down you know by any of those issues and i think businessmen i
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i think they're exhausted and they just
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get on with okay you know let's let's sit behind the desk and run our businesses i
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don't know i can't explain it in in
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any other way but
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um i think to have to have gone through this year and to have um you know followed
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the headlines uh it's been exhausting
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and that we We are where we are.
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I just kind of lift my eyebrows and say, okay.
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I'll take it.
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Thank you very much.
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It's almost as though, from what you've just said, it's almost as though you feel
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as though when you speak to your clients,
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you've got to justify their portfolios doing well, even though you can't really.
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I suppose you can say, well, people like Trump and people like the fact that he's
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going to be a force on the US
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Federal Reserve.
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And maybe Besant goes in as the Fed chair, and that means interest rates.
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are going to be kept at reasonable levels in his eyes for the rest of his tenure.
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I don't know.
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Maybe that's it.
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Maybe it's just cheap money, David.
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It could be.
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Because I don't think anybody knows.
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Besant did announce the five candidates for Fed chair.
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Oh, yes.
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I don't think there's any surprise in any of them.
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But...
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Lindsay, to be fair, I don't think anybody has got a grasp of the US economy.
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I don't think there's anybody that's got a grasp of tariffs, you know, of what this
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means down the line.
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I don't think there's anybody who can come out with a model and talk confidently that
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this is what lies ahead.
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No one understands the job market.
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Everything seems to be guessing.
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You know, I think even the Fed, I doubt whether they've got any models that that.
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in a point in the right direction.
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And you can hear it when Powell talks.
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You know, there's no clear confidence in what he's saying.
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You know, he is data dependent.
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So I'm saying at the end, we look, we wait for results to come through.
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We look at the company and we rely on what management say about what lies ahead.
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You know, that's our best guideline.
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There's a lot of debate about the future of AI, you know, that where the money
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spent
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now will ever get a decent return.
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I think that's with any industry.
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So there's a lot of uncertainty you have to kind of negotiate if you're managing
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other people's money.
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And you just do it the best you can.
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And you're doing that.
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So, yeah, just carry on.
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Carry on until otherwise advised, Shapiro.
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That's my advice to you for what it's worth.
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And just speaking of AI, I have to tell you my AI journey, and I was a bit anti
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it.
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but now I'm not hooked on it, but it is a useful tool.
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It's now talking to me.
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It's now having a conversation with me because I'll put something in and it'll
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say, oh, I see what you're doing, Lindsay.
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You were looking back at this a week ago and now you're applying it to this because
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I put in Rip Van Winkle,
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which is a story of,
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it's an American story of this character.
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who fell asleep for 20 years, and they thought I was trying to apply it to Trump
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or somebody.
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Wasn't it?
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Who wrote the book?
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I have no idea.
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Famous American author.
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Are you putting me in difficult territory?
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I know the story, sure.
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It wasn't Mark Twain.
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No, no.
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It wasn't him, the Mark Twain.
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I can ask AI quickly.
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Yeah, who was the author of Van Winkle?
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Otherwise, it'll drive me mad for the rest of this interview.
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It's the last thing.
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And while you're doing that, David, I'll read a couple of prices here, because the
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gold price is about to break down through 4000.
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It's 4001.88 at the moment.
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And it's going to change its big figure.
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And that's a massive move.
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That's a 10% fall from the high.
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There it goes.
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It's just broken through 4000, which is a big move, two and two thirds percent
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today.
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I won't dwell on that.
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The oil price is up 0.3.
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It's important.
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I think, you know, why it's important.
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Washington Irving.
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Washington Irving, that's right.
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Yes.
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Rup van Winkle.
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Yeah.
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Why it's important is that I tell you my fear.
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My fear was that if gold fell, you know,
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it would fall in conjunction with other markets or it would drag down other
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markets because there isn't a liquidity
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association, you know.
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punters going into gold and Bitcoin and into the market, you know, that
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speculative urge.
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So I must admit, I was a little cautious or fearful that if gold started to sell
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off,
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that it would spread through to the other markets.
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But I think the fact that the US market is picking up that Trump is doing these deals
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is actually attracting money away from gold, you know, call it the safe haven if
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you want to,
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into equity market.
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There is another theory as well, David, and people say, well, gold's going first
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because gold is a very illiquid market compared to,
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say, the bond market or to AI stocks or any stock in the S&P 500 or in ETF.
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So they're saying what happens is that people position themselves in gold first
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because they know if there's some sort of movement elsewhere,
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it'll be difficult to get out of gold relative to the other asset classes.
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That's just a theory.
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I don't believe it in this case.
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I don't think it's valid in this case.
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None of us know.
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Markets are so complex today that it's almost impossible to understand the flows
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and some of the movements
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that we're seeing.
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But I must be honest, I was a bit concerned that if gold went,
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that it might follow through to other markets.
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For the meantime, that's not happening.
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It's not for now anyway.
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No.
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2.6% weaker.
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Copper price, watch that one.
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That's not going anywhere but up at the moment, up another 1% at $5.14 per pound.
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US 10-year treasury yield didn't like being below 4%.
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It's 4.03%.
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S&P 500, another record high.
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68.87, the December futures, up nearly 1%, quite extraordinary.
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South African 10-year bond, 8.90%, still nice and steady.
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David, the JSC, please tell me about pick and pay, because pick and pay another
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7.25% down, I think.
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You know, the results came out today, and it was a half-year result.
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The problem is that their exposure to Boxer actually masks what's happening
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underneath.
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So when you take out Boxer, you still have a company that is under a lot of pressure.
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I don't think, you know, Sean Summers is quite open about where they are.
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and the amount of work that they have to do.
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But, I mean, it does, it's a lot of weakness there.
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There's a slight improvement in terms, you know, they sold off boxes, so they got
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more cash,
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and that's helping their margins.
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You know, with more cash, it reduces their interest payments.
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Also, there was a little more volume sales.
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But, I mean, it still remains a very weak, unprofitable business,
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as things are.
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And I say unprofitable because...
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you know, on a trading basis, the pick and pays out of them is still in loss.
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It's, you know, it's still negative.
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So a lot of work to be done.
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And I think the markets are just getting wise to it.
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If you look at pick and pays, market cap and you take out Boxer, you actually,
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there's a negative one billion value on the pick and pay business, you know,
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outside of Boxer. Yes.
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So this is still not one that you've been actually very, not vocal,
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but you've been firm on your stance towards pick and pay.
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And it's essentially, it's a dog to you.
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It's a dog.
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And you don't say that.
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I say that.
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I know Sean Summers would say the same thing.
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He wouldn't put it in that manner because he's trying to turn it around.
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But it's going to take a long time to correct the issues that dragged
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it down over the years.
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You can't just do it straight away.
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And you've also got a very strong shop-life, checkers, Woolworths, even Spa
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coming back.
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So it's not like the, and Walmart are also getting into the action again.
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That's what I was going to say to you.
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I saw something over the weekend, and it was to do with a very, very influential
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global investor.
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And he said South Africa is going to go, in his opinion, from zero to hero.
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It says it takes a long time for capital to come back into a country that has been
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under the cosh,
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so to speak.
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But South Africa has now got a relatively stable government, ESCOM, he said.
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It was hugely important to him when he looked at South Africa, which he's
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apparently investing in.
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And you see the bond market, I can see why.
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Could be true.
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And then in the same article, I sort of skipped over it, David, because I was
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watching a football match, as usual.
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And it says something about Walmart coming in.
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Is it going to be Walmart branded stores?
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That's what I understand.
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Yes.
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Well, remember, they were part of Macro.
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Yes.
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They bought Macro.
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And so all they're doing now is...
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rebranding and using the Walmart brand and perhaps getting closer to the market.
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You know, this hasn't been a superb investment on their part.
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No.
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Lindsay, there's still a lot to do here.
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You know, I think people, it's easy to say we're coming off a low base.
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The government's more stable.
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One doesn't get that sense.
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I don't think there's a will to turn things around here.
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And that's the big worry.
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In order to turn the economy around, you have to lay a proper foundation.
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And there's still too much politics involved to do that.
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And there's no money.
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And the reason you've got no money is that you've got a massive unemployment rate.
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So whatever money we make,
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we've got to feed those unemployed people and clothe them and send them to hospital,
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have hospitals for them.
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So as long as you have that massive burden, and remember, you've got high debt
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as well,
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there's very little to reinvest.
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The only way to reinvest and build up, you need...
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private capital.
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So you've got to entice investment.
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But politically, they're not prepared to do that.
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They want to do it according to their rules.
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So I just sit on the sidelines and say, okay, that's all very nice.
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But for the meantime, there's plenty of other places around the world to invest.
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And I must draw your attention to Mr.
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Trump.
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As much as you dislike him, he's not coming to Africa.
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He's going to Malaysia, he's going to Indonesia, he's going to Japan, he's going
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to Korea, you know, he's going to China, India.
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He's still got three years, so he might pop over.
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He's very popular in certain African countries.
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I think he's incredibly popular in Nigeria.
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No, he is in Nigeria, but in South Africa, no, his persona non grata.
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So the point I'm making is South Africa has to make itself attractive.
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if you want Mr.
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Trump to come here.
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You know, he's sending wants.
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I mean, the G20.
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And it's actually almost comical to see how they're trying to give Joburg a paint
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of coat, you know,
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and saying, okay, listen.
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A coat of paint, you mean?
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These are the roads, you know.
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You can only drive on these roads.
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Don't go anywhere else.
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So I'm saying they should take the G20 up Louis Botha Avenue, or Louis Botha Avenue
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to pronounce it correctly.
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You know, from Alexandra to through to Hilbra.
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That will be an education for the G20.
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Is that still bad?
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I mean, I used to drive down Louisville quite a bit.
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But then towards the end, I started to get a little bit nervous about hijackings and
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things like that.
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But also the potholes and the traffic and stuff.
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Is it still quite bad?
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The worst.
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You've got to dodge the taxis, you know, who make up their own rules.
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driving cars that are not roadworthy, whatever it is.
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You know, so it's like going to a carnival and going through, you know,
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you have to negotiate your way through to the other end to get the prize.
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So you're saying that if I wanted to go to the Radium Beer Hall for a beer and a
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plate of prawns,
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I couldn't park down that side road, find a parking space, find a chap to give some
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money to.
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you know, watch my car.
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You can't do that anymore.
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Live with the memory.
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Really?
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And there was a pizza place just down the road as well called Ebuco.
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It used to have a lot of character.
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I mean, Radiant Beer Hall was an iconic place.
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It's still there, isn't it?
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Yeah, I'm not sure you'd risk it today.
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Oh dear.
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David, so pick and pay off the list.
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And it just shows you how influential the miners are at the moment, because we've
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got gold fields down 8%,
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DRD Gold and Harmony are both getting walloped, Anglo Gold as well.
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And that's just the top few, there must be more beneath.
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And the indices are down quite heavily, the all share that is, despite the fact
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that we've got
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NASPERS and ProSys.
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are both up over 3%.
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So the mine is really giving the JSC a bit of a pounding today.
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Yeah.
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Well, if you look at gold fields, they're down 10%.
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Durban Deep, you know, almost 8.5%.
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Harmony, so 7.8%.
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So this is a big sell-off.
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This is a very, very strong sell-off, which is offsetting.
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So, Lindsay, from a mining point of view, you know, the resource index is down
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almost 6%.
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6% is a big move.
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That's huge.
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And that's...
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taken down by the gold and platinum miners.
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This is a large sell-off, and it builds on itself because it's a geared market.
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There's a lot of borrowing against this.
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And once you're squeezed, once there's a margin squeeze, boy, you get out as fast
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as you can,
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margin call.
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So I think it's not a day that everybody it's a day that people anticipated but
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just hoped
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that they didn't see it.
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$39.92 now, the gold price.
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That's a big move.
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Nearly 3% weaker, 4% down for silver, but copper still holding up there.
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Okay, David, so it's a bad day on the JSC because of the miners, because of the
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influence of the commodity stocks,
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but a good day everywhere else.
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And you've got to say it, Mr.
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Trump seems to be well-liked in Malaysia, and I think he'll get on with the new
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Japanese prime minister.
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Yes, she's a nationalist.
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She's far right and a nationalist as well, as you say.
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So she's going to spend on defence.
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So she's, you know, she says the right things.
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And that's, you know, he likes that.
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So he seems to have got on very well in their conversation.
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But this is Trump.
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You know, this is, he loves it.
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He loves the adoration that people give him.
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And I think simply because he's American.
19:29
Nobody wants to upset him.
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No nation wants to upset him.
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Because as Mr.
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Carney saw with that advert, that Ronald Reagan advert, you know, just another 10%.
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You know, it's like your mother used to do that.
19:42
Lindsay, go to your room for five minutes.
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He's like, yeah, Mark.
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Okay, we're going to make that 10 minutes.
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And you argue back, and then it's 20 minutes.
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That's Trump, you know, at his best.
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That's a slightly outlandish example you used there, David.
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I was an angel as a child, but anyway.
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Were you?
20:00
Oh, yeah.
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Like a mother.
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You know how mothers are.
20:01
Yes, I do.
20:04
What about South America while we're on it and before we talk about football?
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South America is interesting.
20:09
Sorry, the Argentinian election went Trump's way.
20:13
He'd backed, what's his name, the funny one with the sideburns.
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Engelbert Humperdinck.
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Yeah, we could call him Engelbert Humperdinck, but he's more of a rock star
20:21
than a crooner.
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So I don't think we should call him Engelbert.
20:27
But the Argentinian bond market has soared today.
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I would have to say that even with Trump's backing, I'd be a seller of those bonds
20:37
because they've never paid.
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They've never paid back bondholders.
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In the history, in modern history, in post-war history,
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Argentina is guaranteed to default on its bonds.
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You've got to be very brave to deal in Argentinian bonds.
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And I think that's been the record over, I don't know, 2025, ever since Eva Perón,
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you know.
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So it's odd.
20:59
It's such a beautiful country.
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Yes.
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That's an incredible country, you know.
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And, you know, when you watch the rugby teams, when you watch the football teams,
21:09
when you watch the Messi's and everything,
21:11
it's just so odd that this is a very sophisticated city, sophisticated people.
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And yet, financially, it's just a mess.
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And it has been.
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And I'm surprised that they still actually survive.
21:26
But it's not an area that I would, it's not the kind of market that I would dare
21:32
go into.
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In fact, I'm very nervous of any emerging market.
21:38
I might not include India as an emerging market or China.
21:41
You know what I mean?
21:43
Those are big, big dynamic economies.
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But for South America or even for South Africa, for Africa,
21:52
I'm very careful.
21:54
Okay, David, thanks for all that.
21:56
Lots to digest and the market's just carrying on and we discussed that at the
22:02
beginning.
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Don't worry why it's going up.
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It's going up and be happy with that.
22:06
David, Arsenal, four points clear at the top.
22:09
People saying that it's their title to lose now, but we know history dictates
22:15
that they will lose it.
22:17
They've lost it before.
22:17
Do you remember that time when they were clear at Christmas?
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Yes.
22:20
And they blew it completely.
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Do you think it'll happen again?
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I take each game as it comes.
22:27
And as long as they can prevent the injury, they are deeply reliant on the
22:33
back four,
22:34
and especially the two centre-backs.
22:37
Although they have got a reserve, I worry about them.
22:41
They can't play every game.
22:43
It's just unfair.
22:45
But at the end also, if you look at the kind of goals they're scoring, actually
22:52
yesterday was a super goal.
22:54
It really was a well-worked goal.
22:55
I like Eze, don't you?
22:59
Don't you like him?
23:00
I think he's a fantastic player.
23:01
And also, yes, when he's interviewed, he's always got a smile on his face.
23:05
He's a nice man.
23:06
And he speaks well.
23:07
He seems a very, very nice chap.
23:11
And, you know, it just depends.
23:13
It's a long season still to go.
23:17
The beauty about this season is that you can find Sunderland beating Chelsea.
23:22
I mean, and beating them.
23:24
It wasn't like a lucky goal that bounced off someone's head.
23:28
And, you know, Aston Villa beating Man City.
23:34
So I think anybody can win.
23:36
You dare not go into a game, you know, full of confidence.
23:41
And that's the problem is that you've got to play every game seriously,
23:45
which can cause injuries.
23:48
I suppose it's every squad themselves, but still.
23:51
for a team fragile like Arsenal. I mean, were they doing well?
23:57
Who knows?
23:58
Spurs are looking okay.
23:59
What has happened to Liverpool, by the way?
24:01
Because I noticed today in one of my football emails that I get, it said
24:08
replacement for Arnaud Slott.
24:10
I mean, they're already talking about him leaving at the end of the season if
24:15
Liverpool don't regain, retain their title.
24:17
Such nonsense, of course.
24:19
You know, the funny thing is, and I loved Diaz.
24:20
I thought he was great.
24:22
I loved, you know, I liked, what's his name, Alexander Arnold.
24:29
I thought he was great, you know.
24:32
And there were certain people there that made it.
24:34
Mac Allister's nowhere to be seen.
24:37
Remember they had, oh, the German, he retired, he went, he came back.
24:41
I'm missing his name.
24:44
What German retired and came back?
24:47
Which one?
24:48
Remember he went to Real Madrid or something like that.
24:51
Oh, God.
24:51
With a G.
24:52
Now I've gone blank now.
24:54
Anyway, you know who I'm talking about.
24:56
And I think they're just missing those people.
25:00
And poor old Salah's nowhere to be seen.
25:04
He's just not being fed the same kind of long balls.
25:06
He scored a nice goal.
25:07
He scored a nice goal against Brentford. Yeah, no, too late.
25:14
Too late.
25:15
Yeah, too late.
25:16
90th minute.
25:17
Uh, not Graven.
25:19
I can't remember his name.
25:20
Doesn't matter.
25:21
But anyway, their recruitment policy hasn't been good.
25:24
You don't buy Etet Sique, the out-and-out striker, and also Alexander Izak, an
25:30
out-and-out striker.
25:32
He's nowhere.
25:34
They're nowhere.
25:36
They don't have to play with each other.
25:38
One comes on, one comes off.
25:40
It's ridiculous what's going on there.
25:42
No, I know.
25:44
And also, talking about Diaz.
25:46
See how well he's doing at Bayern Munich.
25:48
He's a great player and he's a great loss to Liverpool.
25:50
I loved it.
25:52
He was a lovely player.
25:54
He was a good man.
25:56
You know what I mean?
25:58
I enjoyed him.
26:00
He caused havoc.
26:02
And what's happening is that you just have to play a long ball against Liverpool.
26:04
You saw them floundering with those long balls into the area.
26:06
And they were throw-ins.
26:08
They weren't even corners.
26:10
That's so.
26:12
Anyway.
26:14
I quite enjoy it, watching Liverpool flounder.
26:16
Me too.
26:18
Okay, David.
26:20
Always end on a negative note.
26:22
I love that.
26:24
But I agree with you.
26:26
David, thank you very much for your time.
26:28
We'll speak again next Tuesday.
26:30
No Thursday this week.
26:32
Okay.
26:34
David Shapiro is from...
26:36
Good luck.
26:38
Yes, thank you.
26:40
David Shapiro is from Assessment Securities.
26:42
That was Shapiro World.
26:44
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26:46
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26:48
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