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The Global Order Is Collapsing. (Why They Are Buying Bitcoin) | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:03
  One of the leading indicators for global instability just hit
• 0:06
  an all time high. The World Uncertainty Index, a
• 0:09
  metric known for tracking vibes across the globe, is at its
• 0:12
  highest point in all of recorded history.
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  Higher than COVID, higher than the global financial crisis,
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  higher than even 911. But what makes this time
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  different than any of those? Why is it now that we're seeing
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  this parabolic surge in discomfort and confusion?
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  Today, I'm going to go through the three biggest data points of
• 0:28
  this week that show us what's actually going on.
• 0:30
  The Bitcoin accumulation race is heating up.
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  And after this episode, you'll start to understand why Bitcoin
• 0:35
  isn't just another option. It might be the solution.
• 0:38
  Emotions. This is beyond Bitcoin.
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  Let's dive in. Today, we're going to unpack 3
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  forces quietly reshaping the global system.
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  First, a sovereign Bitcoin accumulation race may be already
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  underway. Second, according to Ray Dalio,
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  the post 1945 global order is fracturing into financial power
• 1:03
  struggles. And 3rd, according to Kathy
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  Wood, AI driven deflation is about to collide with a debt
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  based monetary system. At the moment, these are just
• 1:12
  threads that span across Bitcoin Twitter.
• 1:14
  Most people are looking at them like they're just talking
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  points, but really these are more like structural shifts.
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  And if they're converging in the way the data suggests, we are
• 1:22
  not entering volatility, we're entering redesign, probably by
• 1:26
  AII. Think there will be a global
• 1:30
  arms race for Bitcoin within the next two or three years?
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  Countries like the United States are establishing strategic
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  Bitcoin reserves. Countries that are aligned with
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  us, like the UAE, are acquiring cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin.
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  Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital recently said, as you
• 1:48
  just saw, I think there will be a global arms race for Bitcoin
• 1:52
  within the next two or three years.
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  He mentioned sovereign reserves. He mentioned aligned nations
• 1:57
  like the UAE accumulating. Now add that to a clip from Jack
• 2:00
  Dorsey where he describes Bitcoin as an alternative
• 2:03
  savings account. It has a 16 year track record.
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  It's volatile short term, but predictable long term because
• 2:09
  it's math. I think a lot of companies are
• 2:11
  doing it like you can. You can consider Bitcoin to be
• 2:15
  an alternative savings account. You can consider it to be like
• 2:18
  gold, where it's shown a track record over 16 years of just
• 2:23
  going up. It has its ups and downs and
• 2:26
  people say it's volatile, but like if you look at the long
• 2:29
  range, if you go to your stocks app and you look at all, you see
• 2:33
  the every four years, it does the same thing.
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  And it just consistently goes up fairly predictably because it's
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  math. And I think companies have
• 2:42
  understood that. And they're like, this is a
• 2:44
  hedge against the dollar. I know the dollars I keep in the
• 2:47
  bank are losing value. So instead of having that, why
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  don't I have Bitcoin that's gaining in value?
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  Notice something here. Corporations are not buying
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  Bitcoin because they're emotional.
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  They're buying it because they distrust the erosion of Fiat.
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  Sovereigns are not considering Bitcoin because it's trendy.
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  They're considering it because Fiat brings existential risk.
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  But another giant beam in the structural fire that is Fiat is
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  the inevitable deflationary pressures coming our way in a
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  debt based system that could turn more into scorched earth.
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  Kathy Wood recently made a point that caught many people off
• 3:20
  guard. She argued that the bigger macro
• 3:23
  risk ahead isn't inflation, it's deflation.
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  Specifically good deflation. Take a look.
• 3:29
  Inflation and deflation, one of the things that's interesting to
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  me is I've been talking about, you know, deflation is a bigger
• 3:34
  risk. I see you tweeting about it.
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  So you're, you know, in spirit we are locked in this together.
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  What is your read on why deflation is a bigger risk?
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  So it's a risk and an opportunity.
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  So there's a bad deflation and good deflation.
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  If you look at the tradition, the government measures, they
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  will tell you today we're kind of stuck in this 2 to 3% range.
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  If you look at a more modern indicator, trueflation, I, I
• 4:06
  think you feature it as well. Anthony, I don't know if I
• 4:10
  should call you Pomp or or Anthony, but anyway.
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  Call me a Kathy fanboy. Oh you're funny, thank you.
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  So Trueflation is down to 0.8% and so it too was stuck in that
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  2 to 3% range. It is resolving to the downside
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  and I think it's going to go negative.
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  Good deflation is associated with technologically enabled
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  innovation and you know, the AI boom is massively deflationary.
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  The the AI training costs are dropping 75% per year AI
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  inference cost. So what it costs when you query
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  ChatGPT or grok? What it costs to answer that?
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  That's dropping 85 to, if you believe DeepSeek, 98%.
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  Technological deflation, Falling AI training costs, Falling
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  inference costs, mass productivity acceleration.
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  If AI dramatically lowers the cost of producing goods and
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  services, prices fall. We've heard Jeff Booth talk
• 5:24
  about this more than ChatGPT can count.
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  So yes, let's go, let's, let's go into that.
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  Yes, Jeff, let's go into it. This is actually good for
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  consumers. But there is a problem that
• 5:32
  Kathy explains. Our entire monetary system is
• 5:35
  built on debt. Debt requires nominal growth,
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  which requires an expanding money supply, which leads to
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  inflationary wins. Don't you just love those
• 5:43
  inflationary wins blowing through your hair?
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  Deflation, even good deflation, tightens leverage.
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  It exposes fragility. And in a high debt system like
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  ours, falling prices increase the real burden of debt.
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  Wait, why is that? Is it because when goods and
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  services cost less, corporate margins are smaller, yet they
• 6:02
  have to service ever growing debt obligations?
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  And when that happens, historically central banks print
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  money, moolah dala dala bills y'all government step in and
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  political tensions rise. But that's not what's happening
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  right now though, right? Oh, it is happening right now.
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  Now connect that with the recent 400 page tweet that Ray Dalio
• 6:23
  dropped on Valentine's Day. In this incredibly long and
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  wildly popular tweet, Dalio covers late stage empire, high
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  debt, rising wealth gap, technological acceleration, AI,
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  internal pressure, external competition, and a bunch of
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  other buzzwords that would probably end up on your LinkedIn
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  profile and a wonderful little sign off signaling the decline
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  of the United States. Happy Valentine's Day.
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  Dalio summarized something he's been studying for decades.
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  He examined the rise and fall of the Dutch Empire and the
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  Guilder, the British Empire and the pound, the United States and
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  the Dollar, and Chinese dynasties going back to the year
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  600. What he found wasn't randomness,
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  it was patternness. Empires tend to rise over
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  roughly A-250 year cycle. They rise through education,
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  innovation, productivity, trade, dominance, and most importantly,
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  reserve currency status. That prosperity breeds leverage,
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  leverage breeds bubbles burst, money printing follows, wealth
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  gaps widen, internal conflict rises, external rivalry grows
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  stronger, and eventually the order breaks.
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  Dalio calls this Stage 6, the disorder phase.
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  He recently posted that the post 1945 world order has effectively
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  broken down, not in a dramatic fashion, but structurally.
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  And if that sounds a little bit like the collapse of Rome when
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  armies stop taking orders from the state, well, I mean, kind of
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  is. You know, consider this.
• 7:45
  The World Uncertainty Index just printed 105,000, whatever that
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  means, the highest rating in history.
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  Higher than the global financial crisis, higher than COVID,
• 7:54
  higher than 911. Wow.
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  We are not in a calm period. We are in a transition period.
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  And transitions are rarely peaceful.
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  Recently, a clip circulated of IMF and World Bank discussions
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  about Global Asset Registry, the language of striking.
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  Take a look. Actually have a beautiful
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  opportunity in front of us with the United States being such an
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  unmitigated disaster as it currently is.
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  OK, so there is the opportunity and within that opportunity, I
• 8:25
  would suggest three things. The first one, we have to have a
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  global asset registry. We have to know who has the
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  freaking money, and if they don't want you to know that they
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  have the money or how much money they have, chances are they got
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  it from somewhere they shouldn't have gotten it from and they're
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  spending it on some they should be spending it around.
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  So #1A global asset registry #2 we have to facilitate an
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  international conversation about what is enough and that if there
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  is a number that is enough, there is a number that is too
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  much. We believe that money becomes
• 9:02
  power. And when power threatens your
• 9:04
  democracy, you have to take away power.
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  And the only way to take away that power is by taking away the
• 9:08
  money. And the only way to take away
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  the money is taxation. So #3 forgive progressivity,
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  alright? Forgive progressivity.
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  Unless by progressivity you mean taxation that makes people less
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  rich. This is not about a 2% wealth
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  tax when somebody's getting a higher return than that.
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  This is about taxation in order to preserve human freedom, to
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  preserve the. That is some we need to know who
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  has the money, you have the money.
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  The argument was framed around democracy and fairness, but
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  structurally, this is really about visibility.
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  When our systems strain, they increase control.
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  Dalio's work shows that during transition periods, capital
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  controls increase, market restrictions rise, tax regimes
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  harden, asset seizures become politically justifiable.
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  Too much. Who determines who has too much?
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  My guess is that would be probably Sam Altman.
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  Again, not as conspiracy. This is a pattern.
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  An empire is a body, and when a body declines, it uses every
• 10:17
  last resource it can to stay alive.
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  And who do you think are the resources, the blood cells of
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  this empire's body? Yes, King, you and me, when
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  trust erodes, visibility expands.
• 10:27
  Now pause here because this is where things get personal.
• 10:29
  And Speaking of rising uncertainty and systematic
• 10:31
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• 10:34
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• 10:37
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  paranoia, it's preparation. Now back to the macro picture.
• 11:17
  While uncertainty spikes and policy discussions intensify,
• 11:21
  something else is happening quietly.
• 11:23
  MicroStrategy Strategy Strategy Strategy just acquired another
• 11:28
  2486 Bitcoin. Total holdings now exceed
• 11:31
  717,000 Bitcoin. Now why is Michael Saylor buying
• 11:35
  month after month, quarter after quarter, regardless of the
• 11:38
  price? Well, probably because neutral
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  reserve assets like Bitcoin become strategic when trust is
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  destroyed. And when Dalio describes reserve
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  currency transitions, he notes as confidence declines in one
• 11:49
  system, alternatives rise in another.
• 11:52
  They're settled at 1st and then they go so fast Samson Mao
• 11:55
  probably can't keep up in a rocket ship.
• 11:57
  If this macro convergence is resonating with you, if you're
• 11:59
  realizing this isn't about price charts but structural shifts,
• 12:02
  you should seriously consider speaking with professionals who
• 12:05
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• 12:07
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• 12:32
  Now let's bring this all together.
• 12:34
  We have AI driven deflation, compressing margins and
• 12:37
  destabilizing debt. A late stage reserve currency
• 12:40
  cycle under strain. Rising internal wealth tension,
• 12:45
  external geopolitical fragmentation, Discussions of
• 12:48
  capital visibility and registry record, global uncertainty.
• 12:54
  Oh yeah, corporate Bitcoin accumulation.
• 12:56
  Oh yeah, sovereign reserve positioning.
• 12:59
  Oh yeah. These are not independent
• 13:02
  variables. They are converging.
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  And when systems transition, neutral sediment layers become
• 13:07
  attractive not because they promised profit, but because
• 13:11
  they reduce counterparty exposure.
• 13:12
  Michael Seller said simply to his comment to Ray Dalio.
• 13:15
  If you believe the world orders breaking down own the asset with
• 13:18
  no counterparty. Bitcoin is not an anti
• 13:21
  government statement, it's a neutral party protocol.
• 13:24
  In a world of increasing control, neutrality becomes
• 13:27
  scarce and scarcity is what really matters.
• 13:31
  Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and deflation because
• 13:38
  the chaotic part of this is and, and it's ripping through the
• 13:43
  markets now a lot of a lot of traditional industries and, and,
• 13:49
  and companies, you know, being brought the whole SAS space, the
• 13:53
  disaster, as they're calling it. We think there is merit to that
• 13:59
  particular one, but I think you're going to see disruption
• 14:03
  all over the place because the five innovation platforms that I
• 14:08
  mentioned are going to disrupt the existing world order.
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  And what does that mean if these technologies are so
• 14:15
  inflationary? It's going to be tough for the
• 14:18
  traditional world that's gotten used to sort of the, you know,
• 14:21
  the the 2 to 3% inflation to adjust.
• 14:28
  Particularly they'll have to embrace some of these
• 14:30
  technologies faster than expected so that you know, the
• 14:34
  idea of counterparty risk I think is beginning to surface.
• 14:40
  We've we've seen it with first brands, we've seen, you know,
• 14:43
  private equity and private credit especially is where there
• 14:46
  have been a lot of excesses SAS they, they are too exposed to
• 14:51
  that. You know, are we going to see
• 14:53
  counterparty risk manifest more broadly?
• 14:57
  If so, Bitcoin doesn't have that problem.
• 15:01
  And so it is a good hedge against deflation as well as
• 15:06
  inflation. Before we close, a quick note.
• 15:09
  If you want to connect with serious thinkers in the Bitcoin
• 15:11
  space like myself, then you need to check out Club Orange.
• 15:14
  Formerly known as the Orange Pill app, it's now Club
• 15:16
  orange.org. It's a community built around
• 15:19
  long term Bitcoin strategy, macro analysis and intelligent
• 15:22
  discussion. Also, we meet for coffee from
• 15:24
  time to time. You can connect with me directly
• 15:26
  there at Oceans. That's OSH in again, that's club
• 15:30
  orange.org. Because navigating transitions
• 15:33
  requires conversation. We are not witnessing chaos.
• 15:35
  We are witnessing compression, technological acceleration,
• 15:39
  monetary strain, geopolitical realignment.
• 15:42
  In that environment, Bitcoin is not a speculative meme.
• 15:45
  It is an opt out system built on math rather than trust.
• 15:49
  And when trust becomes volatile, math becomes attractive.
• 15:53
  It's the first time math becomes attractive when trust becomes
• 15:56
  volatile. If you found value in this
• 15:57
  breakdown, make sure you subscribe to the simply Bitcoin
• 16:00
  channel. Drop us a like, leave us a
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  comment, tell us what you think. Also, don't forget to hit that
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  notification bell. And if you want to reach out to
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  me directly, I'm on X at run dance Bitcoin.
• 16:10
  That's RUNDANC dance Bitcoin Bitcoin I'm oceans.
• 16:16
  This is beyond Bitcoin. Until next time.