Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Futures and the Return of Scooch!

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NFL Futures and the Return of Scooch! · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network. Guy,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I'm Chad Millman in it is a special, special day
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: because we are so close to the NFL season starting,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: because everyone is in training camp, because people are being
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: carted off the field, because players are holding out, because
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: lineups are changing as we speak, Odds are changing as
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: we speak. Season wind totals are changing as we speak,
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: which means the only reason this podcast exists so I
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: can get Bob Scucci on the phone. And after a
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: hundred twenty days, Bob Scoocie, we have a new producer
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: who might not know that we have playing music for Scoot,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: so uh I will. We're just gonna leave that here
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: and he can throw it in at the end. Scooch,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Bookmaker to the world. Remember that your bookmaker to the
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: world from New Orleans and all the board giving books
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: all over the country. It's been so long, I almost forgot.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: It's good to be back, though. I forgot you had
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: playing music too. I forgot actually how to even introduce you.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: It's been that long. Uh Well, part of the problem,
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Scooch is, um you have a huge new job within
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: the Boyd Gaming Corporation. You're incredibly busy. In fact, I'm
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: giving a gift to all podcast listeners right now because
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: this is going to be the tightest most up to
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: speed podcast they could possibly have about wind totals and
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: futures because you got a hard stop in less than
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: twenty minutes. Yeah, part of the new job comes with
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: a territory. I don't want to waste a minute with
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: jibber jabber scooch right now this very second. Tell me
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: the top five liabilities for future odds at the Boyd
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Gamings properties. Top five starting with the Raiders. Uh. There
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: we get crushed on the Raiders. They're down the thirty
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: to one and probably they should be a lot higher,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: but we're just moving off of the liability on that.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: And we've seen that the last few years since they
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: made the announcement that they're going to be coming to Vegas.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: So there's a lot of kind of local support for them. Uh,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: just a lot of Raider fans, guys coming from California.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: That's number one. Uh. Number two is probably not a
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: surprise to anybody, the Cardinals that we opened at two
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: to one. We're down to eighty to one on the Cardinals.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: But you know, a lot of a lot of hype
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: surrounding Murray and uh new coaching staff and you know,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: a new offense. So not a big surprise there as well. Uh.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Oddly the Broncos are number three for US. Um we
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: opened them up at hundred to one or down to
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: fifty to one. Uh. We do get a lot of
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: public support for the Broncos here here in Vegas, so uh,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: not a big surprise, but just a little surprise. The
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: next one is actually the Browns, which we have undervalue
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: to my opinion at eight to one. You know they
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: should be they should be a lot higher. But again
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: we're just the money is moving it down and then
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: we'll probably adjust that back up. And was that one more?
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: We have one more? My We're actually pretty good on
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: the on the restaurant, so those are our top um.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: I would probably say it's kind of a toss up.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: I'll throw the Lions in there only because uh that's
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: one of our liabilities. But I mean I didn't even
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: move to move the odds on them, So those are
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: our top Here's what's interesting to me about all that.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Raiders make sense, local market, Broncos a little strange, Cardinals
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: and Browns. What the funk are people thinking? Honest to god? Yeah, yeah,
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I get it. And we see the same thing in
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: the season the season win totals with with with both
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: teams as well, and I think just all the height
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: uh surrounding Kyler, Murray and Kingsbury and it's gonna just
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: revolutionize the offense. And uh, you know, we only have
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: them at five wins season wins, and but people just
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: have these high aspirations, uh for for a guy that
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: hasn't you know, played a regular season down in the NFL. Uh.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: So it's a lot of public hepe the Browns I
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: get because they kind of overperformed last year and coming
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: off of two years ago when they were horrendous and
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: just the big transition and of the team. Uh, people
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: are rooting for the Browns. So you know, part of
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: it is that they actually think that they're gonna do
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: pretty well. But I think part of it is just
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: they're kind of feelings that they want the Browns to succeed.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: They want to see the Browns in the playoffs, they
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: want to see the Browns win. So for that one,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: I understand. Also, yeah, what do you have the Browns
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: at nine nine and a half? Yeah, nine and a
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: half nine and a half. Are you kidding me? Yeah?
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: And so the sharp guys obviously are betting it under
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: what we have the under a minus of dollar and
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: but just the overwhelming public support to to win tain
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: games in that division. It's, uh, you know, it's fun
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: to watch. I feel like the biggest value might be
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: on the Steelers to win the division. Yeah. Absolutely. I
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: mean you're looking at the you know, the Bengals and
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the and the Ravens, and nobody is expecting anything from them. So, uh,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: I agree with you there. I think I think that's
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: a pretty good bet. What do you have the Steelers
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: to win the division at right now? Uh? There minus
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: dollar twenty. The Steelers to win the division are minus
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: a dollar twenty. So what are the Browns like minus
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: two twenty? Uh they are minus The Browns are minus one,
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: eighty Ravens are probably minus one. Fifty Steelers are minus
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: one that all the Ravens are plus plus Yeah, okay,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: um yeah, give me the Steelers. Give me the Steelers
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: all day in that scenario. Sure, what do you have
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: the Steelers season win total at? I think we have
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: them at the nine and a half. Also, uh, where
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: are they are we have them at nine? We opened,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: We opened, We opened nine over dollar fifty. They got
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: bet down a little bit, but the public is kind
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: of supporting them over nine wins. Interesting. Yeah, this nine
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: right now, but but the public's on the oder and
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the Sharp guys were on the under at nine and
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: a half early. It's so interesting how these things developed,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: right because there has been NonStop talk about Kyler Murray.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: And I do think that Kyler Murray is a direct
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: result of Baker Mayfield and the success he had last
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: year running the offense being a little bit of a
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: gun slinger, being able to move in the pocket, uh,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: coming in as a rookie. Offenses designed sort of in
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: a more sophisticated way at the collegiate level, and Kyler Murray,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: in a lot of ways, not personality, but potentially in style,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: represents what could be based on what Baker Mayfield was.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: And I think there's just way too much hype. Like
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: I believe in Kyler Murray is a fantasy guy. You
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: listen to all the Action Network Fantasy podcast and they're amazing.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Go download them. Action Network podcasts um Chris RayBan, Shaun Corner,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and Matthew Freedman like our three guys who do it,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: love love love Kyler Murray. I do not think Kyler
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Murly Kyler Murray list the Cardinals team into six wins
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: this year. Yeah, I agree with with the whole assessment
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: in that he's probably much more ready than most quarterbacks
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: coming into the NFL, working with a with a coach
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: like Kingsbury was a quarterbacks coach and and probably has
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: a leg up. And then you hear guys like Larry
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Fitzgerald saying that he's probably the most ready of any
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: quarterback I've seen ever enter the league. So that kind
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: of adds to the hype. But the reality is for
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback to come into this league and there's
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: still you know, the size. I mean, he's only five
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: ten and no matter how good he is, and he
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: can kind of make the comparisons to Russell Wilson. Uh,
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: you know, that's a tall stretch. That's a big stretch
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: to to ask for a guy to come in and
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: make that big of a difference in terms of a
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: few extra winds on the season to total. So the
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: other one I'm not getting. So the Browns and Cardinals
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: just feel often me and people are being silly. The
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Broncos is a weird one to me. To me, that
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: feels like a wise guy play. And let me tell
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: you why. I think they are betting on the Broncos defense,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: and I think their way overestimating the Broncos defense at
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: a time when they have no quarterback. Do not, do not,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: do not tell me that they've solved their quarterback situation.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: So am I wrong? I don't think you're wrong on that. No,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: I think you're kind of right on the money. You
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: know why? Why is that? I think like a wise guy?
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I forgot? So you've been so long, you know I
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: forgot just because you know, or a wise guy you are?
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: You walked right into that. I did. Yeah, I did.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: If I'm investing my money, which I already have in
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: a couple of different places. I bought the Indianapolis Colts
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: at eighteen to one. Where do you have the cults
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: right now to win the whole thing? Yeah? We have
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: met twelve to one. See, I got a little bit
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: of a discount on that. I did a good job.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Did early? Have you gotten wise guy money in the Colts? Uh?
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: Not really? No, I think kind of the words out
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit on on them. To in terms of
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: like the public, uh with with Luck being injured the
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: last few years and realizing that he's still one of
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the best quarterbacks in the league. Um, they're not getting
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: a huge public support there, but they're getting some public support.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: And I think we kind of beat him to the
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: punch with with kind of low odds on that. We
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: have the regular season win total at nine and a half,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: which is really high. But but I think in that
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: division where I think you're going to see the other
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: teams kind of progressing a little bit. I think a
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Colts have been on the improved last couple of years, so, um,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: to expect ten wins out of that out of them
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: is not a stretch. The other team that I was
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: high on to win their conference, the Dallas Cowboys, attend
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: to one. Obviously, this was before Ezekiel Elliott decided to
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: hold out and go on vacation in Mexico, before Jerry
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Jones decided to say you don't even need a running
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: back to winning the NFL. UM some nice negotiating postures
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: going on between Zeke and Jerry Jones. Do you adjust
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys odds at all for conference or Super Bowl
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: based on someone like Ezekiel Elliott. Is he a big
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: enough factor in how you're determining point spreads, future odds, etcetera?
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: A little bit, um not a great deal in terms
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: of the futures um. Certainly if we know that he's
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: going to miss the entire season, and that makes uh
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: much bigger difference than if we know he's out for
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: a couple of games as a holdout. Uh So, so
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: it depends. But certainly someone of his magnitude of changes
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: the offense changes the dynamics a little bit and definitely
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: makes the difference of probably about a half a game
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: to a game on the season win total. So, uh,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: definitely adjustments we've we've actually seen. You know, we opened
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys regular season win total at eight and a
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: half and we had more individual bets on the over
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys than any other team on the board for us,
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: and uh, most of that is just kind of public action.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: We know the kind of support the Cowboys have across
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: the country, so it's not a huge surprise that we
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: would get so many bets. Some of them were pretty
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: nice sized bets, and we actually moved the season win
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: total up from eight and a half to nine. And
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: we're actually at nine over a quarter and haven't seen
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: any any TakeBack from the sharp guys on the under yet.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: But having said that, I think the numbers right. I mean,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: they might win nine nine games and we lose a
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: little money, but uh, I think they're they're more likely
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: to be an eight and eight team. Give me right now,
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: you've given me top five liabilities for board gaming, give
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: me the top five wise Guy future odds plays future odds.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: That's a that's a tough one. I mean they're they're
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: kind of all over all. Right, hold on, hold on,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: hold on. Would it be easier to give me top
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: five wise Guy season win total plays? Yeah, so give
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: me that. Yeah. So let's see. One of them would
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: be the the Dolphins over four and a half. Probably
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: not going to be uh kind of popular plays, but
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: that's how they roll. Wise guys don't do popular. I'll
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: tell you one is the Chargers over nine and a half. Um,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: we really got a couple of big bets on the
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: Chargers over nine and a half on that a lot
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: of support and those are those were sharp plays. Um,
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I like it. We have the Bills under under six
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: and a half and plus money on that one. That's
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: a probably our next biggest one. And actually the Bears
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: under nine and a half is another sharp play. Love
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: love love that. I love the Bears under it. Here's
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: the problem, Scooch, As a long time passionate public Bears fan,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: I don't like the hype. Not a fan of how
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: much the Bears future total future aids have dropped, not
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: a fan of the Mitch Drubisky is the right value
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: for season m v P hype. This team has a
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: great defense, there's no doubt about it, but all of
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: a sudden they are playing in a much different position.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: They are the hunted, right, And I thought that last
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: year Matt Nagy made a lot of mistakes in the
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: way he managed the game, and it did not come
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: down to them missing a forty three year o field goal,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: and that's why they lost the season. That should have
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: been a twenty year field goal if he had managed
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the game properly and put the ball in the right
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: places and called the right players. So that's true. Agree
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: with that. I worry about them there. Yeah, and that division,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: I mean we expect the We expect the Packers too,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: and and the Vikings both to be, if not the
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: same as last year, better than last year. So U tough,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: tough division to get ten wins. UM. I also, look,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins thing is just stupid, like they're a team
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: in disarray. They'll be lucky to get three wins. UM.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: The Bills is interesting. I like that, uh playing against
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: the public. They're way too many people going in on
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen as sort of the Tim Tebow Uh and
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: timt about regressed quite a bit in the second year
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: when defense is figured out what to do with them.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: The Chargers over nine and a half, you're basically saying
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: you like the Los Angeles Chargers to win the a
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: f C West exactly. And there's a lot of those
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: same people that feel like the Chiefs are going to
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: be taking a little bit of a step back. I mean,
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: they're still obviously going to make the playoffs, but they're
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: just relying to school pull too much on on Tyreek Hill,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: and you know, we don't know what's gonna happen there. Um.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: You know, I do think that it's gonna be a
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: tight race between the two of them. But the Chargers
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: are you know, they're they're healthy this year, they've been
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: fighting injuries and and if they stay healthy, Uh, I
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: think they could win that division. Scooch, I know you
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: gotta bounce. I feel like this was the most efficient, thoughtful,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: twenty minutes walk your Dog podcast that anybody could possibly
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: get to figure out who the wise guys like and
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: where your liabilities are so what they can avoid. You're
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: gonna be coming back all season, Budy. We've already confirmed,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: but you can't. No no takebacks. I got you. I
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: had to ease my way in with a little, short,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: efficient podcast. I like it all right, brother, I'll talk
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: to you later. Hey, thanks a lot. Chat. Thanks man.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: There you having, folks. Bob Scucci back on the Scooch Pod,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: back on his own podcast, and we have missed him
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: desperately bringing so much good football information. He'll be back
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: every single week as we get into the NFL season.
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: This has been the favorites from the Action Network. Downloaded
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: Apple podcast rate review, subscribe, get it at radio dot com,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: slash the Action Network, where anywhere else you download your podcasts.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: Until next time, I love you,