Latest / Toadstool Sports / Brewers/Braves MLB + WNBA Best Bets Wednesday 8/6/25

Transcript

Brewers/Braves MLB + WNBA Best Bets Wednesday 8/6/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Inside I want to kill myself. We are on OWN
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: never seen anything like this.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Own four that have not had a good season.
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: slump continues.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached a new peak.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat man, I
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: don't know what is going on with the bruins.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Arch epe is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what day is anymore. I don't even
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Man, back with you after the worst day that I
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: could possibly have, Back with you as I always am.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: yesterday did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: To the slump, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: point other than potentially.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: End it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. This is
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: better off dead. Wednesday, August sixth, losing day on the
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: show yesterday?
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what else is new? Right? Uh?
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: One in one it was a slight loss. The under
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: in the Giants Pittsburgh game did not get there. Burrows
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: did not hold up his end of the bargain. The
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Giants scored eight runs, I believe, in one, eight to one.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: Obviously the Giants pitching staff held up there end of
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: the deal, but that was a little And then we
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: did get a winner on the first five inning under
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: in Red's Cubs. That was one to one after five minutes.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: I think it was no score going into the fifth
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: as well. I believe the game the full game went
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: under as well. I'm pretty sure I think it was
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: a six to one finals.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: That is that what it was.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: I don't even remember anymore, man, I don't know anything.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: Five to one Cincinnati with the win yesterday. Cubs not
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: doing particularly well in that series. Really, I'm gonna give
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: up three plays today, man, I think I have two
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: anti public sides. One is a full game, one's the
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: first five, and then I have a first five.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Total as well. So a lot going on.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: In baseball today. We could jump into it. Man, We're
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: gonna get into the rundown here.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: We'll get to it. We do have one WNBA.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Game up first year, which is potentially a zigzag spot
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: here between Vegas and Golden State. Here the Pacific Coast
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: time zone teams. Basically here, these two teams just played
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: each other, and these teams are battling right now for
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: basically getting into the playoffs. Vegas is just a half
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: game ahead of Golden State right now after beating Golden
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: State one hundred and one to seventy one last time out.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: So Golden State could be in a little bit of
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: a bounce back spot here. Man.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: You know, I always point out there's such thing as
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: the zig zag spot when one team has kind of
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: an outlier result like this. I believe Golden State was
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: dealing with some injuries here too. Although we know that
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: Caleb Thornton is out for the season, so she's not
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: going to be back. But Vegas was up to an
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: eight and a half point favorite in this game, I
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: think due to some injuries on the Golden State side,
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: and Vegas just took a two of them. Man, Golden
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: State was terrible shooting in this game. They actually won
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: the turnover battle and still lost the game. They only
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: shot thirty four point two percent from the field, Vegas
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: forty five percent from three, So those are some kind
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: of outlier percentages.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: So it would kind of be looking for some regression here,
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: back to some sort of mean here.
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: Vegas is going to be a five and a half
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: point favorite this game, which is actually down from six
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: and a half. So it let's like some of the
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: money is agreeing with me on Golden State here in
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: the Zigzags. But I think Golden State will have the
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: adjustments to make it again. We'll see some statistical regression there.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: It does look like you have to worry about some
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: other potential injuries here with Golden State, mostly Hayes. We
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: don't know if she's gonna play or not. I don't
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: know how crucial that is because I.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Don't really follow WNBA.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: The one issue I would have with Golden State though,
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: that they are turning home from a road trip, so
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: you know, I always point out when teams were turning
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: from road trips they have to get back to doing
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: stuff at home. Could be a little bit of a distraction.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Golden State did also lose a three game win streak
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: with that loss to Vegas, so that could potentially hang
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: you over a little bit too. So I don't quite
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: want to get there at the Golden State side here,
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: but that is still the way that I would lean
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: here in the bounce backslash zigzag spot and Vegas, Yeah,
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: they are starting a road trip, so I guess they
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: are in the more positive scheduling spot as far as
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: the scheduling besides the fact that it is a quick
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: revenge spot for Golden State. But yeah, I still lean
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: to the revenge being more of a factor than anything else.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: So both teams actually do need to show up there,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: so I think the return home spot from Golden State
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: is not as crucial as it may seem. Baseball, we
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: got afternoon baseball here. It's Wednesday, so some teams are
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: traveling not playing tomorrow. Baltimore at Philadelphia, first game up
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: at twelve thirty five PM Eastern. Philadelphia is about to
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: sweep Baltimore, potentially outscoring them in the series eighteen to three.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: With a shoutout yesterday, I mean Baltimore not playing well. Obviously,
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia has a bigger series up next against Texas, although
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: it's another interleague series. But it is possible that Philadelphia
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: just kind of overlooks Baltimore here. Baltimore, their bullpen is
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: bad man, so I would give the bullpen edge to
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia here.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Not a lot of bullpen.
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: Usage from either team yesterday, but Philadelphia has got the
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: better bats and the better bullpen at this point here.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I kind of want to lean to Baltimore.
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: Having the better starter here, though, Trevor Rodgers, maybe I'm
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: finally a believer, even though I pointed out how his stats.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Earlier in his career weren't really that good with.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: The Marlins as Triple A stats were not very good
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: this year, either, But somehow he's pitching well in the majors.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: The one point four to four ERA point seventy five
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: whip and it doesn't get much better than that. He
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: is a little bit worse on the road two point
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: EIGHTYRA is still quite good coming off a really crazy
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: eight inning performance. We only give up one run at
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Wrigley Field against a very potent Cubs lineup, had eight strikeouts,
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: no walks, four hits a lot in the game, and
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: his team still lost the game because they didn't even score.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: So a hard luck loss for Trevor Rodgers there.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: He's given up two or fewer on runs in every
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: start except for one since he's been up in the majors,
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: which is another pretty ridiculous stat.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: He's pitching really well, man.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: He's given up one run over the last fifteen innings
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: and only five hits and has thirteen strikeouts in one
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: walk in that span. So he is pitching well Philadelphia. Yes,
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: they're a really good lineup. His numbers against Philadelphia are okay.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia has actually seen quite a bit.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Of him because he was in their division for a while.
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: One hundred and seven at bats thirty to sixteen strike
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio is not very good. That's too many walks,
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: but he has held them to two fifty two average,
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: although at slightly high seven to sixty one ohps. But overall,
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Rogers does not do that terribly against Philadelphia, especially given
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: that Philadelphia is a good offense. Sarah Stock the ss
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: yeah hhss. She's an enemy of Pearl Davis. I don't
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: know what Pearl is doing attacking man. I mean, Sarah
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: is obviously the way better looking of those two women.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: Pearly she just intentionally like rage baits though, really so whatever. Yeah,
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: congratulations to Sarah. I don't know who her fiance is,
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: although he's obviously lucky. Ron your Suarez is starting for
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia here. I went six to EIGHTYRA one point one
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: to three WHIP on the season. Obviously, he has good numbers.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: He's been worse at home, though, four point one point
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: one ERA at home, so he's definitely been more beatable
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: at home. He started to slide a little bit over
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the last month, walking more guys, allowing some runs in there.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Last couple of starts.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: He was pretty good again, though, with thirteen strikeouts one
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: walk over the last twelve and two thirds innings, allowing
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: four and runs total and eleven hits against the Yankees
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: and Detroit combined. Here pitched pretty well in those two starts,
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: so he's pitching a bit better again. He's stepping down
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: in class to face this bad Baltimore line up twenty
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: five bats against him. In his history two forty average
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: seven to thirty six ohps. So Suarez does have a
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: bit of the better matchup numbers, but I actually think
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching matchup is somewhat close here. So yeah,
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: because of that, Philadelphia they do have the edge in
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: the game because they have the bullpen edge and the
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: hitting edge. But given the situation, I kind of slightly
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: lean against Philadelphia, especially where the price is now. They're
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: up for minus one fifty four to minus one seventy
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: by the way, pregame, finally they fixed their sportsbook integration
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: and we could see the numbers on this screen again,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: which I like this screen better than the wage. You're
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: talk one of those sometimes they show different numbers too,
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: But I think we have more books that we're dealing
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: with here, and more sharp books that we're dealing with
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: here on pre game, So.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I've always liked these numbers a little bit more.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: Seventy eight percent of tickets eighty four percent of the
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: cash on Philly looks like there is real money coming
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: in on Philly. Not sure that I would agree with that, though,
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: given the situation, I think they might just somewhat overlook
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: Baltimore here to be honest, although Suarez probably does have
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup because Rogers
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: is familiar to Philly. The under is getting action as well,
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: down from me and a half to eight juice to
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: the under, seventy eight percent of tickets ninety percent of
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. Given the both pictures, I
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: don't know if they're both totally trustworthy, and I don't
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: like the bullpens at all, so I would not be
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: looking at an under here. If you do want the under,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: I would say probably first five innings, just to take
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: the bullpens out it, although they are at least rested.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: But that's certainly not gonna be something I will get
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: involved in. Pittsburgh finishing their series against San Francisco. Pittsburgh
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: won the season opener and then lost eight to one yesterday.
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: As I said, unfortunately that game did not go under
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: for us on the show here.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has the slightly.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: Worst bullpenal though both these bullpens are actually not too bad.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh used two relief pitchers yesterday.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: San Francisco also used two, so not very heavy bullpen
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: you suggest today, hard, what's up man? I might be
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: a little bit hard here, I don't know. Robbie Ray
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: is pitching for San Francisco. Here in San Francisco, I
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: would say has the better offense as well. Even though
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: these teams offenses are both struggling, they're both bad. Robbie Ray,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: though having a good season for the Giants two point
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: eight five VRRA, one point one two whip, he has
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: been a little bit worse on the road three point
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: one six roadra.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Here he's pitching well again. Recently.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: He gave up one on run last time out against
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: the Mets in a start where he faced the Mets
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: a second straight time, and he actually did better in
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: the second start after he had walked a lot of guys.
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: His walk rate was pretty high over the previous four starts.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Starting to maybe get that under control again. Is he
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: had six strikeouts one walk in that one run seven
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: to eighty performance against the Mets, only give up four runs.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: Might be back in form here. He's stepping down in
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: class to face Pittsburgh. Problem is Pittsburgh actually has good
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: numbers against him in their careers, even though only five
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: of their hitters have seen him before forty five at bats,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: fourteen to thirteen, strike out, walk, ratio is really ugly,
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: way too many walks, three point fifty six average a
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: lot of one thousand and thirty three ohps. So Robbie Ray
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: does not have good numbers against Pittsburgh. So I would
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: probably say that his you know, his recent performance against
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: the Mets and his season stats kind of outweigh the
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: matchup stats there.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: But the matchup sets don't look that great for him. There.
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: The best pitcher in all of baseball or on a
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: specific team all of baseball, I mean, it's got to
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: be school ball. Andrew Heeny is pitching for Pittsburgh. Four
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: point eight to ninety RA one point three to one
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: whip not good numbers on the season for him. He's
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: been better at home though, three point two five ERA
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: significantly better at home. He's been struggling recently though, man,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's only really had one good start over
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: the last month or so, which was a five inning
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: shutout against Arizona.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Arizona pretty good lineup.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: Although Arizona had kind of started to sell off right
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: before the trade deadline.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Overall, his numbers not great, though.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: He just had a rough outing at Course Field where
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: he only went three and a third gave up three
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: on runs seven hits, only had one strikeout one walk.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: I know it's tough to pitch in elevations sometimes, but
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: still not a good sign that he is pitching that poorly.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: Recently.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: His numbers are bad against the Giants at seventy at
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: bets seventeen to three, strikeout walk raceio is good, but
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: three twenty nine average nine to fifty one ohps not
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: good at all. So I'm still gonna give Ray the
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: upper hand there and that starting pitching matchup, so I
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: will give the edge to San Francisco.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: They are taking the money.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: They're off for minus one forty five to minus one
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: forty eight, seventy eight percent of tickets eighty eight percent
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: of the cash. Looks like a little bit too much
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: of a price to lay, though, Like do you really
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: want to lay a price like that with Ray with
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: his matchup numbers not being that good on the road
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh, I would say probably not. And even though
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: the bullpens are good, I could see the argument for
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: the over here. The total has kind of moved up
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: from eight juice to the under to straight eight fifty
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: three percent of tickets and seventy three percent of couch
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: on the over.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: Both pitchers have.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: Bad matchup numbers man and maybe that cascades into the
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: bullpen's having to be used more in this game could
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: also go over in the first five innings if you
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: want to just focus on the starting pitching matchup.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Who would have thought.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: There'd be a situation where you want to uh, you
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: want to like, where you want to focus on Pittsburgh's
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: bulp and actually being good Like Who whatever thought that
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: would be the case.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: I was trying to find the words in my head.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: A you cover album?
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: Maybe, I mean, I have so many covers that I've done.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: I don't know how I would choose. I do have,
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: I do have a Spotify feed with them. I'm putting
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: everything I put up on Twitter for the covers up
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: on the Spotify feed. Now that's at the fifteen dollars
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: level on the Patreon Cleveland Mets I will get back
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: to That's gonna be a play for me. We'll have
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: time to get back to that. That game's on until
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: one ten pm Eastern Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit won the
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: first game of the series, lost the second game of
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: the series. Both final lot of scores are six to three.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: Detroit has the better bullpen at this point. I mean,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Minnesota sold some guys off at the trade deadline. Minnesota
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: used one additional reliever yesterday too, So give Detroit the
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: bullpen age.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Detroit's pretty good at home. They have the better hitting
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: as well.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: Undecided is what it says for Minnesota here, but that's
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: actually not true. Ole is going to be making the
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: start for the Twins here, Twins putting him in the
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: rotation after they adult. Who do they deal with Chris
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: Paddock Pierson Ole. He's only made a two starts so
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: far in his.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Major league career.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: I believe these were both starts. Minnesota lost both starts.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: He did pretty poorly against the Red Sox, gave up
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: four runs and three innings. Last time out against a
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: weaker Cleveland lineup, he did better, three went three innings,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: one ear and run allowed. Old not going deep into
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: games though, so I would expect he probably won't go
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: deep into this game as well. Ol was putting up
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: pretty good numbers at Triple A, which is why they
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: called him up. I think his era was in the
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: twos and he had a sub one whip. Old does
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: not throw hard, but he kind of has a decent
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: array of pitches, although he mostly does fastball change up,
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: so he's mostly kind of a location and speed.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: Changing type of guy.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know how that will really totally translate to
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: the majors though, so we will see.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: But he only throws in the low nineties.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: Although it's not all about velocity here, but overall he
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: hasn't done totally well yet. Obviously he might have a
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: little bit of an edge though, because Detroit has never
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: faced him before, so when a lineup hasn't faced a
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: pitcher before, sometimes they don't do as well. Although of
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: course the Red Sox handled him fine. Jack Flaherty, I
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: would give him the upper hand of the pitching matchup,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: to be honest. He's been pitching better recently, although his
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: season numbers are not good. Four point three six ERA,
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: one point two to five WHIP not great numbers, but
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: he's better at home three point three eighty RA at home.
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: Last couple of starts.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: He only give up one run combined across the last
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: twelve innings against Toronto and Philly, so that's a good sign.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: Those are two decent lineups. Had fourteen strikeouts and four
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: walks over that span. His walk rate had gone up
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: a little bit over the last few starts, but well,
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: prior to those two starts, I guess it stayed up
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: with three against Philly. But still he is pitching decently,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: at least recently, with a thirty seven to nine strike
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: out walk race show a last month, which isn't that
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: bad really either. Three point five to five VRA that month,
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: more than three on runs in any start going all
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: the way back to late June, so he's in decent
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: form right now.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: In Minnesota.
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: Not a good lineup, Flherty is decent against them on
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: twenty three at bats. It's not a big sample size,
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: eight strikeouts, three walks, two seventeen average. He does not
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: allow a lot of hits to them, but a little
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: bit of power, so the ops is a little bit
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: high at seven eighty six. Larnac and Vazquez each have
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: a home run off of him. But I would still
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: kind of trust Flerty.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: In this game more than Old.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: You don't know what you're gonna get out of Old,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: and I guess once it was announced that Old was
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: going to pitch Detroit, the line went up on Detroit
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: ol getting very disrespected in the market here. Detroit up
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: for minus one thirty five to minus one eighty two,
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: eighty four percent of tickets ninety eight percent of the
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: cash coming in on Detroit. I think it's too much
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: of a price to lay with Detroit at this point, though,
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: so I would probably not do that. The under looks
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: like it's taking some money, with fifty three percent of
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: tickets on the over, fifty four percent of the cash
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: on the under. Total went up though, from seven and
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: a half to eight. I would not want to factor
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: in Minnesota's bullpen into that. If you did go under,
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: and you wanted to go with the old unfamiliarity aspect
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: of this and Flawherty pitching well against Minnesota, more or less,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: I would go under first five if I did that.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: In that game.
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: But that's not a game I'm interested in either. Cincinnati
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: at the Cubs. The Cubs are on the verge of
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: getting swept here, but it's not like Cincinnati's gonna overlook
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: the Cubs at Wrigley, Man. So even though the Cubs
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: might have a little bit of extra motivation because they
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: don't want to get swept here, they might be up
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: against it here Man, because Cincinnati, I think, certainly wants
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: to sweep the Cubs here. Cubs obviously do have the
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: better offense. I would say they have the better bullpen
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: as well. Cincinnati not a lot of bullpen usage for
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: them yesterday though Cubs had a little bit more usage,
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: but not a lot either, So Cubs probably still a
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: little bit of a bullpen edge. But I think there's
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: a pretty serious starting pitching edge for Cincinnati. Here is
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: their best pitchers pitching here, Andrew Abbott two point one
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: five vs.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: One point one to one whip on the season.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: He's been only slightly worse on the road to the
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: two point two eight eras out that was, yeah, so
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: he's good either way.
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Man. He's continuing to pitch fairly well.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: Three point one to eighty RA over the last month,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: although he did walk too many guys twenty to eleven
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: strike out walk race show. Mostly the last two outings
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: he had eight walks and eight strike ups, so that
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: does worry me a little bit. But he did only
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: allow three on runs combined over the eleven and a
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: third innings, so I don't know if we should be
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: that worried about him. He did have the All Star
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: Game mixed in there, which might have been a little
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: bit of a distraction. Yes, I know the five walks
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: against Atlanta is a little bit concerning, but I think
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: he might turn it back around. Man. I mean, he's
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: been really solid almost the entire year, really along very
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: few runs on a.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Very consistent basis.
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: He has good numbers against the Cubs for the most
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: part too, and sixty seven at bats twelve nine strike
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio is not that great, but he's tell
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: him to a low two twenty four batting average six
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: eighty nine oh ps is pretty low too, especially giving
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: out good the Cubs offenses stacks. What's up man, Thanks
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: for hanging out everybody. Kate Horton is pitching for the Cubs.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: I think he is the worst of the tune. We'll
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: see if Horton hears a boo or two in this game.
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: A three point four to two ERA is pretty good.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: One point two to nine whip a little bit less respectable.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: He is really good.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: At home though so far one point eight five ERA
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: at home. He is still pitching fairly well, I would say.
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, he hasn't allowed to run at his last
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: three starts against Boston White Sox and Baltimore White Sox
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: and Baltimore not as impressive. I mean, those offenses aren't
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: that good. He did still walk three guys in two
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: of those three starts though, so his strikeout walk numbers
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: are not very good over that span. I believe that's
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: a ten to seven strike out walk ratio, so getting
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: a little bit lucky, I would say, not allowing any runs.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: That although he was hard to hit, he didn't allow
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: a lot of hits over that span, so the walks
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: are a little bit of an issue. The Reds, actually,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: you have basically never seen him before.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Only Hayes has seen him before.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: He's zero for two of the strikeouts, so it is
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: possible Horton has a little bit of an edge just
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: because he's unfamiliar to their hitters. I still mean to Cincinnati,
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: they're taking the money, though, clubs down for minus one
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: thirty five to minus one thirty fifty tickets seventy five
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash coming in on. Cincinnati might want
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: to limit it to first five innings. You could probably
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: still get them as an underdog in the first five
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: That's probably what I would do, and just focus on
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching matchup. The under is getting money as well.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: It's seven and a half now, juice to the under.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Of course, I have to stop clicking on that shit.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: Sixty one percent of tickets eighty three percent of the
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: cash on the under, so the money is coming in
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: on the under in that game.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: And again because.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: Horton is at least unfamiliar and hasn't a lot a
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: lot of hits or runs recently, I would say, yeah,
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, there are some arguments I could see for
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: an under there.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Uh so do with all that information what you will.
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: As I always say, Yankees at Texas, Texas is on
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: the verge of sweeping the Yankees, so obviously I'm just
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: kind of enjoying it. I'm just kind of basking in it.
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: Texas obviously has the better bullpen. The Yankees bullpen blew
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: it yet again in Texas because he evolved, I think
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: got them really deep yesterday. He penetrated the game deep man.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: Texas only used one reliever for nine pitches yesterday, So
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: not only does Texas have the better bullpen, but they're
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: way more rested as the Yankees again used a bunch
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: of relievers for relievers, So you got to give Texas
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: the bullpen edge in this game. Again, Yankees probably have
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching edge in this game, though they obviously
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: have the way better offense over Texas. Carlos Redone pitching
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: for the Yankees. Good numbers on the season, three point
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: three four ERA, one point six whip. Worse on the
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: road though, three point six seventy R on the road,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: and he's been worse recently. He started to really kind
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: of struggle, man, having some pretty bad starts over the
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: last couple of months. His last few starts, he went
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: five and a third or fewer innings in all three starts,
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: gave up multiple runs in every start, and gave up
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: five walks a piece in two of the three starts.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: That's not a good sign. Radon is kind of out
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: of form right now. Man.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Even though he had nine strikeouts last time out, the
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: fact that he didn't even make it five innings, he
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: allowed four earned runs, gave up five walks against Miami.
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: That's not a good sign, man.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, maybe you can give him a pass for
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: not pitching that well against Matt's Toronto Philly. I mean
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: those are decent offenses he pitched, yeah, I mean fairly
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: poorly I would say, in those three starts. But having
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: an even worse start against the Marlins. That's not a
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: good sign.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: He does have pretty good numbers against the Rangers, though
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: their offense is pretty weak eighty two at bats twenty
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: two to five, strike a walk ratio two twenty average
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: six thirty oh ps. He got a weigh like a
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: big matchup sample there against his recent performance, So I
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: don't know which one you want to go with. I mean,
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: I kind of weigh recent performance a little bit more heavily.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: But we'll see.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: He might actually have a good start for once here.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: I think he is the better pitcher generally over Jack Lighter,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: who struggles with walks himself. Four point one ERA, pretty high,
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: one point three to two whip. I don't like his whip.
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: He is better at home three point six six ERA.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: I believe he's playing against his cousin here right because
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: Mark Lighter Junior, I believe is in the Yankees bullpen here.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Jack Lighter also did not go five innings, and his
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: most recent start against Seattle at Seattle's pitcher friendly park,
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: he threw away too many pitches, he walked three guys.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: Didn't allow a lot of runs. So that's the one thing.
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: Even though he's walking a lot of guys last month
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: twenty five to thirteen strike a walk ratio not a
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: good sign. I mean, you can't keep putting guys on
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: base like that. But he's not allowing a lot of hits,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: not allowing a ton of hard contact. Still had a
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: three point four to three ERA over the past month,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: and he hasn't allowed more than three ron runs since
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: mid June and then he starts, so he is still
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: limiting the damage at least, and his numbers are actually
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: good against the Yankees, but it's a very small sample size.
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: By the way, I forgot to mention Aaron Judge he'd
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: come back in yesterday's game, although I think he had
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: no hits yesterday. But he is back now, so obviously
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: that helps the Yankees lineup.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: Jack Lighter.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: Thirteen at bats against the Yankees, Judge has one of
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: only two hits that they have against him one fifty
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: four average, allowed four to forty five ops, so that's,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: you know, something to keep it doing. Keep in mind
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: their Lighter does have good numbers against the Yankees, been
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: in a very small sample size. I still think the
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: Yankees have the starting pitching edge. I think the bullpen
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: edge goes to Texas. Like I said, the total in
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: this game has dropped from eight and a half to eight,
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: so some money coming in initially, pushing that total down
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: eighty one percent of tickets eighty three percent of the
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: cash on the over.
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: But I would say this is more of a market
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: indicator on the under.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: For me, the stronger indicator is on the Yankees though
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: for minus one twenty three to minus one, thirty sixty
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty six percent of the cash.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: Coming in on the Yankees, they are trying to avoid
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: the sweep.
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: I would say, you might want to go Yankees first
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: five inning if you do that. I do think Redone
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: probably does have the upper hand over lighter, so I
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: would lean Yankees first five. But I don't think I
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: would want to go full game because of the bullpen
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: edge that shifts to Texas later in the game, even
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: though the Yankees hitting is better. So don't have much
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: to read on the total there. I mean, I could
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: see some arguments for a first five inning under. I
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: don't know that I want to do full game just
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: because the Yankees not very good. I could see both
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: pitchers maybe getting their teams, you know, five innings through
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: five innings in this game without a lying a whole lot.
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: But we'll see stacks.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: What you want to do is you want to have
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: an account at every book that's available to you, because
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: you want to be able to shop lines. You want
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: to be able to have every single book possible available
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: because you need to find the best numbers.
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: That's really the way to do it.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you want to be like totally serious
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: about it at least, But I have accounts at everything
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: in Massachusetts. We have DraftKings, Fan, Duel, Caesars, MGM, ESPN,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: BET is available now, and what's the other one?
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: I'm missing one I can't remember. I forget I could
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: tell you.
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: But for like many many years, I was doing offshore,
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: and I don't know if that's going to be something
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: I shouldn't be talking about, but offshore was definitely something man,
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: because I mean, you couldn't bet in the States, accepting
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: like Vegas and in very specific places for a while.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: And now it's you know, a state by state thing.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: But when you could not bet, and I still have
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: accounts at some of the offshores. Bookmaker is one of
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: the best off shores. They're still around. Five Dimes was
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: one of them, but they got basically destroyed by the FBI, so.
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: You can't use them anymore.
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: They will not allow any US customers anymore, which is
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: bs because you can still VPN into their site.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: What else did I have?
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: Bet Online is another one where you could do it online,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: which I don't even know if that one is considered
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: to be offshore or not out at this wain. Bovada
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure is still available. I think I still
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: have an account there as well, which they're more of
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: a square book where if you are gonna play underdogs
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: you can kind of find better lines at Bovada. I
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: haven't looked at their site in a while though, because
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: I haven't been betting for a couple months now too,
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: so I don't know Bovada is one of them as well.
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: There was just bet which was an online one as
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: well as far as the legal ones, it depends on
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: what state you're in, though, like you might have different
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: books than what we do in Massachusetts. I think we
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: have five or six. I think I was missing one,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: but I can't remember which one. I forgot to mention.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: We've had a couple of clothes as well. We had
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: Barstool and Win both closed, so I don't know anyway, Yeah,
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: Toronto at Colorado here, Toronto's on the verge of a
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: sweep of Colorado, which is not really saying much. Toronto
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: scored double digit runs in both games, twenty five runs
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: in the series.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: Toronto up next.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: They do have the Dodgers, So Toronto, it's possible they
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: overlook Colorado here, man, because they've just totally dominated. They
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: might be looking ahead a little bit to this LA series.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: Here. Toronto has the better bullpen obviously, and the better offense. Toronto.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: Not a ton of bullpen you suggest today at Colorado,
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: not really a ton either. But you gotta give on
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: to the edge pretty much across the board here, starting
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: pitching edge as well. Kevin Goussman pitching for Toronto here.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: Three point nine to nine ERA, one point one.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: Whip, really nice whip.
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: On the season, he's been a little bit better on
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: the road to three point seven to two ERA.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: On the road, he's in pretty good form.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: He didn't allow more than three on runs in any
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: start in all of July, and then also the last
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: start in June, he didn't last start out, he gave
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: up five runs and six innings against k C, which
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: is not a good sign. But he did have five
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: strikeouts and no walks allowed two on them runs, so
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: I think that was a little bit of an unlucky
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: start for him. So I'm not ready to say he's
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: in bad form. I don't know how he's gonna adjust
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: to the atmosphere of Course Field, though, But overall his
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: numbers are decent against Colorado. They actually hit for contact
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: against him, but they haven't hit for power against him.
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: In forty nine at bats. Seventeen to three strikeout walk
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: ratio is really good for Goussman.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: But he's a lot of two.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: Eighty six average, which is kind of high, but a
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: fairly low six fifty three oh ps. So overall, I
• 29:58
  Speaker 2: think Goussman okay against Colorado. He's going up against Kyle Freeland,
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: who hasn't been that great five point two six ERA
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: one point five whip. He's been worse at home in
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: Course Field, I mean, it's a tough environment.
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: Although he's allowed more home runs on the road, he.
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: Has way more innings pitched on the road five point
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: nine to eighty ra at home. He actually has been
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: okay over the last month, though he's allowed three or
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: fewer earned runs in all but one start where he
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: allowed four runs, all on solo home runs to baltimorech
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: is bizarre. Four point three to ninety ray with that
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: man not great. Fifteen to eight strike a walk race
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: is not great either. He had no strikeouts no walks
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: in a shortened three inning performance last time out against Cleveland,
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: although overall he has been holding opponents bats down a
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: little bit, which is at least something to say about
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Freeland as numbers are okay against Toronto in the past,
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: and thirty eight at bats eight to two strike a
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: walk race here two sixty three average six forty two ops.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: Freeland has been okay against Toronto, so I actually would
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: lean to an under in this game.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: The total has already flit from eleven and a half
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: juice to the over to eleven and a half juice
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: to the under.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: We see these crazy.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: High totals, of course, field just because of I mean,
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: that's the way it's been this year. But Colorado really
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: doesn't have a good offense at all. Eighty percent of
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: the tickets on the over, but eighty three percent of
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under, so looks like a real
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: pros versus Joe scenario going on on the total, I
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: would agree with that.
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you really.
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: Want Colorado's bullpend a factor into your under there, so
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: you could go first five innings under as well, I
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: wouldn't mind that. And Toronto's just way too heavy of
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: a favorite up to minus two to ten. They have
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: the public ticket percentage on them as well, and the
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: cash looks similar as well. But I would say it's
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's a professional side with the Toronto side,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: Needless to say, I think that's way too much of
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: a price to lay. Even though yes they do have
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: the advantage across the board there, they might overlook Colorado,
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: as I said in that spot, So I don't.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: Know that I would want to jump into Colorado.
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: Because Toronto does have like basically the matchup edge pretty
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: much in every category, but under verse five might be
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: the best way to attack that game. Pennsylvania. Yeah, they
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: have a lot of books in Pennsylvania. I'm pretty sure.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, I mean, look at.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: What books are available.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, depending on again, how serious you want to
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: be at doing it. I mean I would I would
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: have accounts available at every book available.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: Man, That's what I would do.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: Even if you don't load money into them all right away,
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: and you can always on the these books, you can
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: always load money in like right away if you really
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: need to. Tampa at Anaheim. Here these teams have split
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: the series so far, Anaheim winning Game one, losing Game two.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: Sorry to Andrew and his wife, the Anaheim fan. Tampa
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: has the better bullpen. I mean, there's no question about that.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: Anaheim's bullpen is one of the worst. UH bullpen usage
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: fairly similar in both directions. I mean, Tampa used one
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: extra reliever, Jacks, but through one pitch yesterday, so if
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: they want him, he's probably available today. Boz pitching for Tampa,
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: and I actually think he's probably the better of these
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: two starters over Anderson, even though his ERA is not
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: as good four point seven to nine ERA, one point
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: three to three whip. I understand those numbers are not good,
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: but he's been way better on the road. He doesn't
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: pitch well at Steinbrenner Field Man, Tampa's temporary home. He's
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: gotten lit up there for thirteen of the twenty home
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: runs he's allowed on the season, all at home. He
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: has a way better ra in the road two point
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: nine to seven. So if you're looking at back Boz,
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: it makes more sense to do so on the road.
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: Tampa has lost all of his last six starts, which
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: is not a great sign. But he actually really only
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: got bombed kind of in one start against the White Sox,
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: which is hard to explain, but he did have a
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: thirty to nine strike out walk ratio over the month
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: of July eight to two strike out walk ratio this month,
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: So farm one start against the Dodgers, he gave it
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: five runs in five innings, but I mean it is
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: the Dodgers, and that was a home start for Boz
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: as well. Dodgers obviously they're an elite lineup, so I'm
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: not gonna give Boz a lot of crap for that.
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: White Sox one was a bad indicator. He has walked
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: at exactly two in his last five outings as well,
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: which isn't great, but at least that's some consistency. Anaheim's
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: lineup is a step down from the Dodgers. I mean,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: they're a pretty mediocre lineup. Boz only sixteen at bats
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: against them, not a huge sample side, they only have
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: two hits against him, though no extra base hits, three strikeouts,
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: three walks, not a great ratio for him, but he's
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: pretty much held them down one twenty five average, three
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: eighty eight ohps. So I think Boz does look like
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: he has good matchup numbers against Anaheim, Tyler Anderson.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: I am not about to trust this guy at all, man.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, his numbers looked good early in the season,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: but I told you he was gonna regress.
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: He's not good.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Four point four to nine ERA, one point three to
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: nine whip on the season. He's definitely seeing that regression now.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: He has been better at home though, three point four
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: to seven homey ra over his last couple of starts.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, not totally impressive really, although he's not a
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: lot more than four earned runs and any start going
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: all the way back to mid June. Last month of
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: mediocre numbers at best four point three to ninety o race,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: seventeen to eleven strike out walk ratio is really bad,
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: walking multiple guys in all but one outing where he
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: didn't even make it five innings against Seattle. Last time out,
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: he faced the White Sox and he gave up three
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: home runs, which is not a great sign. Did limit
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: them to four runs. I mean, there's still not a
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: great offense. White Sox. We're hitting pretty well against lefties,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: though I believe in Anderson is a lefty, so he
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: did give up some bombs in that game, partially probably
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: for that reason, but I'm not ready to trust Anderson,
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: but he does actually have good numbers against Tampa and
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: forty five at bats six to one, strike out walk
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: ratio two twenty two average five to fifty ops. Overall,
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: I'm still gonna lean to Tampa though. I think Tampa
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: has the better bullpen, and they definitely have the better bullpen,
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: but I believe they also have the better starting.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: Pitcher here, so that's what I'm going with there.
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: Tampa would be the lean in that game full game,
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: because you want the bullpen advantage to help you out
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: as well. The offense on Tampa's probably a little bit weaker,
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: but not by that much.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: They initially flipped from plus one of four to minus one.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: Fifteen, so they flipped to the favorite, although it looks
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: like they, I guess basically since that happened, fifty seven
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets fifty four percent of the cash on Tampa,
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: so they're looking like kind of a public road favorite
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: now with less of the cash on them. But I
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, I mean, I'm not sure that initial
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: move was actually a false move. I would lean to
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: Tampa in that game if I was gonna do anything
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: with that game.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: So in like twenty twenty two, gambling became no longer outlawed.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: Basically it was outlawed at the federal level, but there
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: were like some localities that were able to get around that.
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's all nepotism and stuff like that.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Man like Vegas always was allowed to do it because
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: Vegas is run by the mob. So it's basically like
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: you know, like wink wink, basically nudge nudge, like we
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: can do this year. And basically, you know, Native American
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: like reservations had their own laws so they were able
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: to get around it that way. And then gambling actually
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: opened up, So I'm specifically talking about sports betting because
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: gambling opened up. There were different laws against gambling in general.
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: So gambling actually opened up like sooner than that, like
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: you could have that was already state by state because
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: I know Massachusetts had one casino for a while and
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: then I know it was one of the ballot questions
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: a while back, like should they allow up to three
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: casinos in the state or something, you know. So I
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: voted yes on that because whatever. Yeah, so the amount
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: of casinos was a state by state, but you couldn't
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: have a sports book. You couldn't have sports gambling until
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. Then the sports books opened.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: So it's completely.
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: Different, man, Although we're basically fucked after the BBB goes
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: live in twenty twenty six, because the provision from Mike Crappo,
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: Senator from Idaho basically makes a professional sports betting completely
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: untenable unless something changes, man. Because the way that it
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: works right now, I've explained this on the show before.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: You're allowed to deduct all of your gambling losses right now,
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: so you don't have to pay taxes on any of
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: your losses, which obviously makes sense. Why should you have
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: to pay taxes on your fucking losses. You have to
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: pay taxes on your winnings. But the way that it
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: works is you declare them as kind of like a
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: separate line item. And if you were a guy that
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: like has millions of dollars on the line every year
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: and you do that to win, you know, maybe two
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: hundred thousand or something like that on the year, say
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: you say you had like you know, say you won
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: two point two million on the on the year, right,
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: but you lost two million, right, so you actually netted
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: two hundred thousand, and that was like your income on
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: the year. Right, you're a professional better right now, you
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: would pay taxes on the two hundred thousand that you won. Okay, yeah,
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: we know. I mean I still hate that, but that's
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: obviously how it works right now. But with this change
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: coming in, you only are allowed to deduct ninety percent
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: of your losses, so you would actually have to pay taxes.
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: On ten percent of your two million.
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: Losses as well, So you would have to be tacks
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: as if you had won four hundred thousands instead of
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: two hundred thousand in that case.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: So think about how ridiculous that is.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: So in some cases it could eliminate your entire winnings
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: on the year, which is absolute bullshit. And margins when
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: you're professionally betting a razor thin man, like in sports betting,
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: you win, you want to win like about fifty four
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: percent of your bets basically get the minus one ten price.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: To overcome that minus one ten viigue that you have
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: to pay, you have to pay eleven to win ten, so.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: You have to win fifty four percent basically.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: Then if you and that's hard to do, and if
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: you have to somehow win like fifty seven percent instead
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: just to actually start profiting, it becomes pretty much impossible.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: So it's absolutely ridiculous.
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: Jamne, what's up, man, Let's keep going with the baseball
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: here man. Uh gonna be a long video this morning.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: I am afraid Saint Louis at Dodgers. Actually we're in
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: the bottom half now. At least Dodgers lost the first
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: game of the series, won yesterday twelve to six. I
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: still don't like the Dodgers' bullpend here, man, I mean
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: they used a lot of relievers yesterday too. They use
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: five relievers, although they used Vessia for one pitch or
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: he's probably available again. Saint Louis used four relievers as well.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis remember did sell off a couple of their
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: relievers at the trade deadline, to including ELLESLEYE I believe
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: is his name their closer. So overall, I still say
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: LA has the worst of the two bullpens, but it's
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: not by that much. Both bullpens don't look like they're
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: in a great rest spot. Here starting pitching. Libratres pitching
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: for the Cardinals. He's having a decent year three point
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: nine six ERA, one point two eight whip, a little
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: bit high on the whip. He's been better on the
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: road three point five to two road ERA. Not pitching
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: well recently though, last month six point five seven e RA,
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: seven to seven strike out walk ratio.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: One start this month he failed to make.
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: It five innings at San Diego, which is a pitcher
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: friendly park. Yeah, the defense let him down. He'll have
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: three unearned runs and one earned run, but he still
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: walked two guys only struck out one. Not a great sign,
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: Libra tore. It doesn't look like he's in great form
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: right now. Numbers against the Dodgers. We know the Dodgers
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: have the better offense here significantly twenty at bats, not
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: a ton of at bats, but the Dodgers have hit
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: him well five to four strike out walker ratio, three
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: to fifty batting average and eight fifty eight ops. So
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: Libratry not good numbers against the Dodgers. Yes, it is stupid.
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: I don't do anything with soccer really. I mean I
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: know some guys around here that do. They focus on soccer.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: I know there is money to be made there. A
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: lot of US betters don't really focus on soccer. I don't.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is just too much in soccer, man,
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: Like I would feel like I would have to handicap,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: like all the different European soccer leagues and all that crap,
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: and like I can't do that.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: I know some guys that do do it, and there's
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: money to be made, like I said, but I don't
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: do it. I only do the US sports, all the
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: major sports, including college football and college basketball. Shoeo Tani
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: is pitching for the Dodgers here, so he's in the
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: starting rotation. They keep ramping him up a little bit.
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: Two point four ERA, one point two to seven whip.
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: His whip is a little high right now, a little
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: bit worse at home so far two point five to
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: seven e RA at home. I hasn't gone more than
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: three innings yet, but he's thrown more pitches every single outing,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: so they're basically every single outing, so they're ramping them
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: up a little bit.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Start by starting.
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: They're working him back into being a full time starter here.
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna happen yet, but at some point he's
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: probably gonna go at least four innings in some game.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it'll be now or not, but
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: he did give up two hour runs last time. I
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: did three innies against Cincinnati. Didn't have a great start there. Overall,
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: he's still pitching pretty well, though, and that was tough
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: at Great American Ballpark, So I think you can give
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: Otani a little bit of a pass for that. He's
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: pitching pretty well, and in a small twelve at bat
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: sample size against the other Cardinals, he sell him to
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: a two fifty average eight zero strikeout walk ratiown a
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: little bit high eight thirty three oh ps, mostly because
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: Gorman has a home run off him, But I'm not
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: gonna take that much away from such a small sample size.
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: I think Otani has the upper hand over Libra Torre,
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: but Otani probably gonna be out of the game fairly early,
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: and you have to deal with the Dodgers' bullpen, So
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: this makes it a pretty difficult game to handicap man.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: Dodgers.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, they still have the upper hand, but they're
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: gonna be a big favorite here. They're down for minus
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: one ninety five to one ninety three to ninety percent tickets,
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: ninety five percent of cash.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I really want to deal with
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: any of that.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: Money seems to have come in a little bit towards
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: the over, up from eight and a half juice to
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: the over to nine and a half juice to the
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: under seventy one percent tickets and seventy five percent of
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: the cash.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: On the over.
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: I could see that, because, I mean, Libra Torre doesn't
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: look like he's gonna do well here. With Otani probably
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: exiting early, You're gonna deal with the Dodgers' bullpen. You're
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: gonna deal with that Saint Louis bullpen as well. That's
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: not very good. So I would not disagree with an
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: over in that game. But it's already up to nine
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: and a half. So he missed, you know, getting the better,
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: uh of the key number of nine there, because again
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: the four to four tie being broken exactly, nine runs
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: is a key number in Bay and you want to
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: get on the best side that you can of those totals,
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: man of seven to nine and eleven in baseball, if
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: you can, Houston Miami, I'm gonna give out a play
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: on that once. So we'll get back to that. A's
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: at Washington. I was dead wrong about yesterday's game, and
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: I thought the early part of that game would be
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: an undeur and I'm pretty sure it was not. The
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: whole game was massively high scoring, A's winning the game
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: sixteen to seven. The A's side was a decent play
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: if people did that. With several Reno doing well on
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: the road, he outpitched Gore big time. I mean, this
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: is a series where it's just two teams that are
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: completely dead. These teams sold off some of their better
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers. Both of these bullpens are atrocious. These are
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: the two worst bullpens in all of baseball. Both offenses
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: are not that terrible, especially the A's. Jeffrey Springs pitching
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: for the A's, I think he does have an advantage
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: in the starting pitching matchup. He has actually not been
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: bad for one point one to seven whip on the season,
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: basically the same home and away, surprisingly because the A's
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: home stadium is very hit her friendly. Over the past month,
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: he's been quite good with a three point seven to
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: one ERA twenty seven to six strikeout walk ratio. One
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: rough start against Cleveland, and other than that, he left
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: three or few earned runs and all the rest of them,
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: and that actually goes all the way back to the
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: end of May. Last two starts he went six innings
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: in each of them, along three total earned runs, six
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: hits in the twelve innings, had twelve strikeouts and two walks.
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: He is in good form right now, man, And that
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: was against Houston and Seattle, so those are not exactly pushovers.
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: Oakland or As have won five of his last six
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: starts all this past month, and they've actually won seven
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: of his last nine starts, I believe, is what that is.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: So Springs is pitching pretty well. Knats have not seen
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: a whole lot of.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: Only ten at bats, although they have a three hundred
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: average against him in a one two hundred oh bs
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: because DeJong and Low each have a home run off him.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: But I'm gonna lean to Springs actually having a decent
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: performance in this game. And I think he's the only
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: part of the pitching. I don't even know what the
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: world I'm looking for is, but he's the only part
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: of the pitching involved in this game that I would
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: actually uh lean on potentially actually pitching well. Cade Cavali
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: is listed as the starter for the Washington side. I
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: don't know what's gonna happen with this guy. Man, he's
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: twenty six. I went back and I looked at what
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: he was doing in the miners this year, and it
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: was not good. His el in the minors this year
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: was in the fives, like mid fives. I think in
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: his whip was like one point four or five. So
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: I don't really know what his pitching arsenal looks like,
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: but those numbers were like, there's no way I could
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: play on this guy, because a lot of times I'll see, Oh,
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: this guy's gonna be unfamiliar to the opposing hitters, so
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: we should play on him, right, Well, I don't think
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: so in this case, man, because again his numbers are
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: awful in the minors. He's not pitching the major since
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. He's probably been dealing with injuries. But
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: he didn't really have a good goal of it. Although
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: he only made one appearance and it wasn't a good
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: one and four and a third and he's pitching give
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: of seven or runs and whatever start that was. Although
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: he does have an unfamiliar ac these hitters almost certainly
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: have never seen Kovali before. I mean, I think I
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: looked earlier, and that is the case, I think there's
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: no sense in really wasting time looking there. I would
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: give Springs the upper hand and the starting pitching matchup,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: so I would go. I would lean towards the A's
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: in this game as well, but they are laying a
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: price on the road. I mean, who would think the
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: A's would be a road favored although they're actually better
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: on the road than they are in their crappy temporary
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: home stadium. I could see the over being good to
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: go in this game as well, because I think both
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: bullpens definitely could get blown up here, so I think
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: later in the game at least you'd see runs, probably
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: to enough of a degree that it might be able
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: to get over that total.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: It's not a very high total.
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: It's down from nine to eight and a half, actually
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: nine juice to the over to eight and a half
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: juice to the over, So money's actually coming in on
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: the under. And I don't really agree with that seventy
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the over seventy five percent of
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: cash on the under. I guess it's just because Cavali
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: is unfamiliar to the opposing hitters.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: I don't even know.
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: How long it's gonna last in this game, man, But
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: perhaps probably the best way to look it is still
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: the A side, and maybe even in just the first
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: five innings, so you don't even have to worry about
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: their bullpenal.
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: Though both bullpens are.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: So bad, it's not really a disadvantage for the A's. Really,
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: A's are up for minus one twenty one thirty two
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: on the money line though, seventy one percent tickets ninety
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them, so you are paying
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: a price for the A's.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: If you like them.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: But that I think that it's uh that it is
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: the correct side there. My Boston Red Sox are looking
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: to sweep Kansas City. They've won seven.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: Games in a row.
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox have winning behind Garrett Crochet yesterday, another
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: pretty good start from him yesterday, Red Sox. I don't
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: know if they're going to overlook Case here though, because
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: Case is still kind of in the wildcard hunt Hero
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: though maybe the Red Sox might take their foot off
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: the gas a little bit because they've owned the series
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: pretty much and they do have San Diego up next
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: to though that is an interleague game, interleague series, so
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know if that's really gonna set up a
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: look ahead spot for the Red Sox. Here I give
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox the bullpen edge slightly overall.
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: The only is cheer real pitchers.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: Yes, today, their bullpen rest scenario is actually pretty good.
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is a little bit worse, so the Red
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: Sox have a bullpen rest edge as well. Thanks Garret Crochet. Obviously,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: Michael Walker pitching for Kansas City.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: He's having a pretty good season.
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: Three point three eighty RA, one point one six whip
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: worse on the road, though four point one area on
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: the road not great. He's pitched well over the last
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: four starts, allowing exactly one on run in all four
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: of those starts. Pretty good strike out walk ratio really,
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: although he didn't have He only had one strikeout against Miami,
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: but other than that he said five strikeouts a piece
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: on the other three starts. Over his last three starts,
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: he does have an eleven to two strike a walk ratio,
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: which is pretty good as well. He had a three
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: point one ERA in July, even though he only had
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: a fifteen to nine strike a walk ratio. He actually
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: settled down and didn't walk as many guys over the
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: last three starts. Like I said, he became not a
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: walk huh. But his numbers are not good against the
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: Red Side. In thirty one at bats. Red Sox have
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: a pretty good offense, especially at home, two ninety batting
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: average off a walk on eight eighty two ohps. Red
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: Sox have done fairly well against him, so they may
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: be able to hit him here. Dustin May is gonna
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: be making his Red Sox debut, which I'm not thrilled about. Man.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: I don't like either Dodger pitcher that the Red Sox acquired. Bueller.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think Bueller is ever gonna come
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: back from his injuries. May it might be the same thing, man,
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, they both dealt with injuries earlier in their
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: career and it kind of derailed their career.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know that we're.
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: Gonna get anything good out of May here. Man his career,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, his season numbers are not very good. Four
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: point eight five ERA, one point three to five whip.
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: He was better at home though, significantly, but that was
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: what the Dodgers remember, but a.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: Three ERA at home.
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: But I'm worried because his seven point zho nine road
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: era was bad. And we're talking about Fenway Park here.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: Fenway Park is a pretty hitter friendly park. Oddly enough,
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: he actually his last start actually was in Fenway Park.
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: He pitched against the Red Sox, and now he's gonna
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: be four of them in the same park. He went
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: five innings in that game, allowed four on runs, did
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: have five strikeouts and no walks though, so that actually
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: wasn't a terrible performance from him all over the past month,
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: twenty two to eight strike out walk ratio is actually
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: not terrible, but five point four to eightyr ra is
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: not good. He hasn't allowed that many hits though, so
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: maybe he's gotten somewhat unlucky over that span. But his
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio is really bad in the month before that,
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: although it was actually good the month before that. So
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: it's almost like he's alternating good and bad months, which
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: you mean, he's in a good month here, but I
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: don't know what's gonna happen here.
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: Man, his numbers against the Royals, even though the Royals.
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: Are a bad offense Man, obviously the Red Sox have
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: a huge offensive edge here in this game. Many has
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: been terrible against the Royals and twenty four at bats
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: four to seventeen batting average allowed in oneenty two, twenty
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: six obs.
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: That's unbelievably bad.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: Four strikeouts and five walks against a weak lineup like
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: this having numbers that bad, that's insane. And he actually
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: gets kind of bombed by Yeaz, who I guess is
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: now on the Royal and not the Giants. Yeahs coming
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: to the home of his father here Carl Yastremsky's kid
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: or grandkid, right, grandkid? I think Mike Yastremsky. He's got
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: eleven at baske against May, five hits against. I mean
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: he has seen him because they were both in the
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: same division for so long.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: Double in two walks the home runs off.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: But I'm not ready to get behind Dustin May here
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: Man in a either in a non gay way or
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: a gay way, I don't want to do either. The
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: money seems to be strongly coming in on the Kansas
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: City side. I don't really disagree with it, although if
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: you were gonna go Kansas City, I would go first
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: five innings on this one and just go with Waka
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: to outpitch May. But both of their matchup numbers don't
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: look like they're very good here Man. But maybe Waka
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: does have somewhat of the upper hand in the starting pitching.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: I don't think Kansas City has the bullpen edge though
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: seventy five percent of tickets on the Red Sox sixty
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: two percent of the cash though on Kansas City Red
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Sox dropped for minus one fifty minus one thirty six,
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: So the market Reid is saying Kansas City and it's
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: saying under. As the toll dropped from nine and a
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: half twos to the under down to eight and a
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: half through the key number of nine seventy eight percent
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the over seventy six percent of the
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: couch on the Under.
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: I do not agree with that.
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: I think both starting pitchers could potentially do pretty poorly here,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: so I would actually be more inclined to lean towards
• 53:16
  Speaker 2: an over here, even though I know Kansas City's offense
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: isn't that good, but against May they might be able
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: to do damage. So that's kind of the way that
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: I would lean in that game. I'm Milwaukee in Atlanta,
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: I'll skip because I have a play on that one too,
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: and that's actually on FS one. Of course, ESPN never
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: shows baseball anymore except on Sunday nights.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: Man it's so stupid.
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: ESPN is basically turning into MTV. It's turning into like
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: a reality show. It's ridiculous. I don't even know what
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: we're gonna get from ESPN at this point. Man, it's
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: just so stupid. But MLB Network showing most of these
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: baseball games that are televised, and Fox Sports getting that
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee and Braves game White Sox at Seattle. I was
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: wrong about this game being low scoring. Yesterday. Seattle won
• 53:57
  Speaker 2: the game yesterday. That's the only game of the series
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: so far. Seattle has the better bullpen here against the
• 54:03
  Speaker 2: White Sox only use two relief pitchers yesterday. Whoops, I
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: clicked on Detroit. White Sox used three. But you gotta
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: give the bullpen edge and the hitting to Seattle, even
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: though the White Socks have hit a little bit better
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: as of late.
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: Seattle did win eight to three yesterday.
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: Seattle probably has the better starting pitcher too, but you're
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: gonna pay a huge price if you want Seattle here.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: Johnathan Cannon pitching for all the White Sox not doing
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: very well four point seven to seven ERA, one point
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: four to one whip. He's worse on the road four
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: point nine to four road e ram really bad over
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: his last two starts along eleven and runs and ten
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: to third innings. That's not good. Fourteen hits allowed, strikeout
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: rate was okay, twelve to three strike a walk ratio
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: White Sox had actually won five starts in a row.
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: Is a free loss to Philadelphia, which maybe you give
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: him a pass for those two starts because Philadelphia is
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: a difficult offensive face in Tampa Bay's stadium where he
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: pitched the game before that is just a weird stadium
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: and this is a much more pitcher from stadium. Cannon
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: actually has decent numbers against Seattle. They haven't seen a
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: ton of him in twenty at bats, only one extra
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: RaSE hit a double from Canzoni, two hundred batting average,
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: a lot of four eighty eight ohps. So Cannon actually
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: does have good numbers against Seattle five to one strike
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: a walk ratio as well. So it is possible Cannon
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: does alright here. But if you're gonna trust one of
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: the starters, it's got to be Kirby.
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: For Seattle.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: Four point one three era one point one to three
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: whip is really good, indicating that his ERA should be
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: better than it is. He's better at home three point
• 55:31
  Speaker 2: four to three ERA. He's been good recently too, allowing
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: no more than four and runs than any start. After
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: his first start of the season, which he had a
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: late start to the season because he was injured, He's
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: fitched pretty well this whole time. Man three point zero
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: seventy RA over the last month, thirty three to nine
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: strike at walk ratio there against the White Sox. Decent
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: numbers as well, very small fifteen at bats sample size
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: though Jokes is three for three with a double often,
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: but other than that, they have not done a lot
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: of damage against him at all. Seven strikeouts, one walk,
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: to sixty seven batting average and six.
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Forty six ops. I would definitely trust Curbing more.
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: I think Seattle kind of has the edge across the board,
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: but they're up to minus two fifty now and they
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: have eighty eight percent of tickets and only seventy two
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: percent of cash. The money seems to be disagreeing with
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: Seattle here, maybe just because of the price, although I
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: would not want to really fade Seattle just given that
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: I think they have the matchup edge here. The money
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: looks like it's on the under mostly as well, although
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: the total went up a little bit from seven and
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: a half juice to the under seven and a half.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Very low total. I mean, it's Seattle.
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: It is a picture friendly part, but the oddsmaker is
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: kind of expecting this to be more of a pitching duel.
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: Here eighty one percent of tickets and only sixty nine
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over, so the money
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: seems to be indicating on the under. As far as
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: the cash percentages are concerned. I mean, I, like I said,
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: I could potentially see Cannon doing okay, so the starting
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: pitchers could do okay. I don't know if I'd really
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: want to factor the White Sox bullpen into an under here,
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: but if you go under first five, you're probably looking
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: at three and a half, which is again I don't
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: really love doing that either, So that's gonna be a
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: stay away from me. San Diego at Arizona. Arizona won
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: the first game of the series, even though it was
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: a return home spots. That kind of surprised me a
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: little bit. And then San Diego won yesterday ten to
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: five in eleven innings, So they scored five runs in
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: the top of the eleventh inning or whatever.
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the eleventh inning.
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: San Diego used all but one of their relief pitchers yesterday.
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: It only Met Suey did not pitch, which is crazy,
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: crazy extra inning game, and so San Diego's bullpen pretty tax,
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: I would say after that game yesterday, Arizona's bullpen overall
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: is the way worse of the two bullpens, and they
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: used most of their relievers as.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: Well, so they really only have two relievers.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: That are not that are on the active Ross didn't
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: pitch yesterday with Beaks former Red Sox player Beaks and
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: Backers and the only two. So the bullpen situation really
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: looks bad for both teams. Here Beaks, by the way,
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: I mean think I talked about this on the show.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: Before him, I.
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: Was at his major league debut. He was on the
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: Boston Red Sox. Wasn't a good debut, pitch poorly. I
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: was at that game at Famway Park, and I don't
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: remember who the opponent was.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: He didn't pitch well.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Red Sox lost the game. Whatever it was, what it was,
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: I want to say it was Detroit. I might have
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: that wrong. Maybe it wasn't Detroit. But I was with
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: one of my friends who was up from Houston. We
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: went to the Red Sox game. You know, we hit
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: some of the bars we were up to hit, like
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: some of the breweries and stuff.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: We went and we did karaoke.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: I believe the night after the Red Sox game that
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: we went to and we did karaoke.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: With beaks parents.
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: His parents are in town to watch his major league
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: debut and they were like karaoke fiend's basically. His mother especially,
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: was actually really good at karaoke. It was a scene. Man,
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: it was awesome. So we hung out with them a bit.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: Uh So, Yeah, I got to hang out and do
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: karaokeo Jalen Beek's parents.
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: Weird story there, the toad lore there anyway.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't like either bullpen in this game. Starting pitching,
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: it has to be in favor of San Diego here, man.
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: San Diego does have the better bultpen overall as well.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: You might have to give the offensive ench to San
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: Diego at this point, do because Arizona traded away some
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: of their better hitters, so their offense is definitely a
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: little bit weaker. Nestor Cortes is pitcher for San Diego
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: and he was on the Yankees last year. I believe
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: he was on Milwaukee at some point, and I think
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: he got hurt, and I think he must have gotten
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: traded to the Padres. I think this is his San
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: Diego debut.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure.
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: I think he was on Milwaukee this season when he
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: had these bad numbers. I think he only made two
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: starts way back in April. I think for the Brewers
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: ninety RA one point seven to five whip not good.
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: His the RA on the road was thirty six, which
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: is not good. This is a hitter friendly park here. Yeah,
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: so I think he was on Milwaukee at this point.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: He gave up eight runs in his debut, five home
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: runs and two winnings to the Yankees in the Bronx,
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: five walks to just a miserable start from Cortes.
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: In his former home.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: He got lit up man, but then he had a
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: much better performance against Cincinnati's six innings shoutout, one hit aloud,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: six strikeouts, two walks, and then he went on the
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: injured list and he's been gone since then. So what
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: are we gonna get out of Cortes here? I don't know, man,
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: I don't know if he's gonna be on a pitch
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: count again. He is pitching in a hitter front of
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: the park. But he actually has good numbers against the
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: Diamondbacks in his career thirty eight at bass, nine strikeouts,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: no walks, two eleven batting average five hundred oh ps.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: So Cortes does actually do pretty well against the d Backs,
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: so he might actually be ready to go here. And
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: I prefer him over Anthony D. Sclafani, who I think
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: is more of a relief pitcher.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: As it says right here.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: He's an RP four point nine to win, ERA one
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: point two to nine, five point five to sixty ray
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: at home not good, and he doesn't go deep into games. Man,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: He's gone at most four innings in any of his outings,
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: so we're probably gonna expect three or four innings out
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: of him in this game. I would guess hasn't been
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: that good his last out and he walked three guys.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: Can give up four runs against the A's and two
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: and a third. That was at that A's ridiculous stadium.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: But his walks have been an issue over the last
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: few outings of his two so multiple walks and three
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: of the last four outings. I'm not ready to think
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: that Dais Sclafani is going to do anything good.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: His numbers against San Diego are not good either, in
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: eighty seven at bats to eighty seven batting average eight
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: forty four oh ps. So I don't like that at all.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna lean to San Diego in this one. They're
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: sitting at minus one forty two though, so that you're
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: paying a price for them on the road seventy three
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets, only seventy percent of the cash on them,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: so they are a public road favorite, which is usually
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: not something you want to do. Because San Diego basically
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: is no relief pitchers that are not used. I would maybe,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: uh say san Diego in the first five innings, Arizona's
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: bullpen probably gets involved earlier, would be my guess, and
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: then you should probably have san Diego with the upper
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: hand early in the game. So if you do go
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: San Diego, I think that's probably what I would do.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: San Diego some hew play them in the first five,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: or you could look to go San Diego over their
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: team total, man, because I lean to an over in
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: this game too. I's sitting at nine and a half,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: a little bit less juice on the under all though
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: ninety one percent tickets only seventy four percent of the
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: cash on the over.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: But with the bullpen situation.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: These teams are in, I think the over would make sense,
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: and I don't know if you can really trust either
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: starter or necessarily. I think Arizona is almost more certain
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: to get beat up blown up in this game, so
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: I think San Diego again over their team total might
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: make sense.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: In that one.
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: We're at the hour mark and decent timing. I guess
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: we'll go to the best bets segment. I'm giving up
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: three plays here today, man, I like them, and the
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: first one up is the total and it's the first
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: five inning under in Cleveland and the Mets. This is
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: an afternoon game here. I don't love either bullpen, so
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: I'm taking the bullpen's out of the equation. They're both
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 2: mediocre bullpens, so they're decently rested. So if you wanted
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: to go full game under on this, I think that's
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: also okay. Although I found a four you know me,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: I don't like going three and a half in the
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: first five, so under four I founded a decent price
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: out there, and I think Caesar's in Massachusetts. But if
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: you have to go under three and a half, I
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: might actually recommend going full game under the seven and
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: a half at whatever price.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: I know seven and a half sees really low.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: From Mets game, but neither offense is that good, Man,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: So part of the handicap. Cleveland's offense is not very good.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: The Mets offense has been struggling, even though they do
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: have talented hitters, so that's part of the handicap here.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: The bullpends again, if you did want to leave them in,
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: I don't hate it, but the Mets ddu's four relief
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday, so I'd prefer to just keep them out
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 2: of the equation and focus on the starting pitching, which
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: actually looks under conducive to me.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: Gavin Williams is pitching for Cleveland. He's at least not.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: Giving up a lot of runs three point three to
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: three ERA in the season. His whip is a concern
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: one point three to five. I know that's not great.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: He's worse on the road four point zero three ERA.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: I know that's not great either, but he's been fairly
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: decent recently.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate has gone up as walk rate has
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: been a little bit less bad, walking two or fewer
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: in his last three starts. He's going to least six
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: innings in the last three starts, going nineteen innings over
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: the over that span, giving up only thirteen hits, three
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: earned runs total, had five walks, but he also had
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: twenty two strikeouts over that span, so that's actually a
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: decent sign.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: He's in better form right now. Man, he's fooling hitters.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: He was walking too many guys a bunch of the
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: starts before that, but he's kind of shifted into being
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: in decent form here.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: I know.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: The last two starts were against Kansas City and Minnesota,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: not great.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: He did really well against the A's.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: The A's are a strikeout happy bunch, but he did
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: have eleven strikeouts against him, and they do hit well,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: and he held him in a one earned run and
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: four hits, so it's a good sign. I think Williams
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: is kind of a decent form right now, and the
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: Mets have almost no history against him, so I think
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 2: he might have an extra edge here because the Mets
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: haven't seen him.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: They only have six at bats against him.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: Jon Soto does have a home run off him, but
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: that's the only hit the Mets have off him, and
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: Mullins has walked, but they only have a one sixty
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: seven average against some all the one thousand and forty
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: two oh ps because of the Sodo bomb and the
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: walks there. But whatever, it's such a small sample size
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: and most of the Mets haven't.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: Seen it before him.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: So in this matchup, I'm actually gonna trust Williams, and
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: I'm actually gonna trust a guy who I don't love
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: to trust David Peterson for the Mets two point eight
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: three e RA, though obviously is a very good ERA
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: one point two to four whip isn't even that horrendous either,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: But I haven't liked him because his whip has been
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: too high over the last couple of seasons. But he
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: continues to just get it done man, and get a
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: lot of ground ball outs and whatever.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: I'm just not gonna fight.
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: And I think I played an under the last time
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: he pitched, and it was a correct winner, so we'll
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: do it again. He's been better at home two ERA
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: at homer. He's only allowed two home runs all season.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: He has not been hit by the long ball almost
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: at all. He hasn't a lot of home run. Oh no,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: he didn't allow home run his last outing. Oh no, wait,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: I'm looking the columns shifted. Man, it's stroke brainingg and
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say, I don't think he's a lot
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: of home run a while. That's true, he hasn't a
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: lot of home run in five straight starts. Not it's
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: the start against Milwaukee back on July third, so he's
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: not doing that last or actually four straight starts start
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: because the All Star Game was in there.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: But in every one.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: Of his starts since the start of July, he's gone
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: at least six innings, and every single one of them
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: he's allowed two or fewer earned runs. And every single
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: one of them he's pitching pretty well. Man, even though
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: he's eighteen to seven strike a walk ratio last month
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: wasn't that good. Including this month, it's twenty two to nine.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: Now it's not awful. I mean his strikeout rate, he's
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: not really a strikeout guy. Again, he's a ground ball pitcher.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: I think to a large extent, one point five ray
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 2: last month.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: This is really good.
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: Even you got to expect some regression from him. But again,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: he just continues to not allow runs. Man, So allowing
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: two or fewer earned runs in every start going all
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: the way back to the beginning of July as well,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: so he's in good.
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: Form right now, and Cleveland has never.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: Faced Peterson before, so he might have a little bit
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: of an advantage there again, because the hitters have to
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: try to figure the pitcher out an adjust man, so
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: I think the starting pitchers that should do have an
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: unfamiliarity edge here on both sides. So we're going under
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: first five innings Cleveland and.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: The Mets.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: Total drop from eight down to seven and a half
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: juice to the over, So you can probably still get
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: a pretty decent number on the under seven and a
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: half if you did want to go full games sixty
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: seven percent of tickets and only fifty five percent of
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. But I still think the
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: under is the right way to go here, man, even
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: though it looks like the cash percentage is disagreeing with it.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: I don't see the public coming into a game like
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: this is going, oh, I want to play the under
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: or under this low total in a game with the Mets.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: I don't really think that's accurate. So I believe Action
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: Network is in disagreement. Actually, Action Network is in disagreement
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 2: with the pregame numbers in all three of my plays.
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: So Action Network, we'll see how great they are.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: Because I'm going with the pregame numbers more and the
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: pregame numbers are on my side and two out of
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: the three, whereas Action Network is only on my side
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: one out of the three, I think, And speaking of sides,
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: that's what we have going on in the other two
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: plays I'm gonna give out here. One of them is
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: what am I doing here?
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: Houston? Miami?
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: We're gonna go Miami money line minus one twelve. And
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: I know I've been saying Miami can't keep winning games. Man,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: They're not as good as their record even looks, even
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: though they're below five hundred. But Miami they're just playing
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: fairly competitive baseball.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: They're on a nice hot streak a couple of times here,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: winning what was that like, nine of eleven games there
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: until they came into this series. But I think they
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: were in kind of a letdown spot in the first
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: game of the Houston series here after they swept the Yankees.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think they were feeling pretty high about themselves.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: They've lost both games.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: Of the series now, but I think the tide kind
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: of shifts back to Miami here, and I think the
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: public's gonna look at this and say, wait a minute,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: how is Miami a favorite against the Astros, who have
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: one of the better records in the American League. Miami
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: below five hundred, and they're below five hundred at home too,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: But the Astros are definitely not as good on the road.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: They're only slightly above five hundred on the road. But
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers are obviously telling you something lining Miami is
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 2: a favorite here, like why would they be a favorite
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: against the team with the way better records? So obviously
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: the oddsmakers know the public's gonna perceive value on the
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: Houston side and want to come in and take them
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: as the underdog. And I think that's not the other
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: way to look at this game, man. So I obviously
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: the osmakers are not throwing money away here.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: Houston.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: I think they're in a bad situational spot. I mean,
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 2: they are on the verge of a sweet beer, so
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: they might take Miami a little bit lightly. Not only that,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: but look at what they have up next over the weekend.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: They get tomorrow off and then they have to go
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: to the Bronx and they have a huge series against
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, which might be like a playoff preview type
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: of series. There, so they might be looking ahead. Man,
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: that is a big series against the Yankees, so that
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: doesn't look good. And as far as the bullpens are concerned,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: I told you yesterday, Houston basically went with a bullpend
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: game yesterday.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: Blue Ball blue Ball.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: Wound up being the starter there and maybe he blue
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: balled his fans a little bit there, although they did
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: get the job done. I guess so maybe not. But
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: a lot of relief pitchers came into the game yesterday
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 2: for Houston. Man, they used five relief pitchers. Even though
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: generally I would say their bullpen is obviously the better
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: of the bullpens, I mean, their second overall in Whip
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 2: and they have a really low bullpen era. Miami's is
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: mediocre their middle of the pack here, They're not awful.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: But because of the bullpen usage, Marlins only used two
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: relief pitchers yesterday, and one of them was Baozo, who's
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: a long relief man. So basically the best Marlins relievers,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: even though I think they might have traded some away,
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: I actually think the bullpen edge is kind of erased
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: because Houston used so much of their bullpen. Yes, this
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: is an angle I do kind of look at where
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: you have a huge bullpen rest disparity in the game,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: so I think that favors Miami. I'm going full game
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: partially for that reason, but also because of the situation,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: and I'm going with the starting pitching matchup here.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: This is a really.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 2: Weird starting pitching matchup. Spencer Arraghetty is pitching for Houston.
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: He's making his return five point five to nine ERA
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: this season. Very limited playing time so far, though, but
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: his ERA wasn't good. His whip was good point nine
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: to three. But if you look at what he did
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: last year, which was his debut season, I do think
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: he's talented. I think he has some talent here, but
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: he struggled last year.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: He had a very high strikeout rate, but he was wild.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: He had well over one strike up for anybody. He
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: had a ton of walks. He had a really high
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: whip one point four to one despite not all that
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: many hits, so his walks were really a problem four
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: point five three ERA last year. He does have good
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: stuff and he can strike out guys at the major
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: league level, so that does translate, and that shouldn't mean
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: he's gonna get better. But in his first game after
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: a long stint on the IL, the DL whatever. I
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: don't know how well he's gonna do here.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: His walks have been a problem again this year. Five
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 2: walks and nine to two thirds innings, eight strikeouts, only
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: line four hits. That's all pretty good, but six ironed runs.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: Got bombed by a pretty bad Minnesota line up on
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: the road, and his only road appearance five earned runs
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: and three and two thirds walked three as well, well,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: also striking out three. So he had a good appearance
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 2: with the Mats prior to that. But it's not a
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: good sign. Man. If you get blown up by the
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: Twins on the road, that's not good. Rag Getty up
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: against Miami, I guess that Miami probably hasn't seen him before.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: Let me see, I did look earlier today, only wag
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: him and has seen him before.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: He's zero for three off him.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Eric Getty, he might have a little bit
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: of an upper hand here just because Miami's never seen
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 2: him before. But I'm gonna go against it anyway, man,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with this situational player.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: I think rag Getty might take a little while to
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: get into form here.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: We don't know how long he's gonna last in this game,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: and then if Houston's overworked bull pass to come into
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: this game, it might not be the greatest situation for them.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: He's going to go up against Jansen Junk, who has
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: actually been fairly decent three point eight six ERA, one
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 2: point one whip. He has been worse at home though,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: four point three four ERA. But even so, he was
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: pitching alright until you give up six runs in his
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: last start. But it wasn't against the Yankees. They're a
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: good offense. Obviously, he kind of got unlucky in that
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: game because he gave up six hits one walk for
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: strikeouts in five innings. The peripherals in that matchup didn't
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: look that bad. He's really not walking a lot of
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: guys man last month eighteen to three strike at walk ratio.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: He's allowed more than four and runs only twice this year,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: and you go back to late June to find a
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: start where he actually did that two point seven ninety
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: R last month, he's doing okay, and Houston only his
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: twelve at bats against him, and they haven't done very
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: well one sixty seven average three ninety seven ops. I
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: know it's a very small sample size, but he kind
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: of has an unfamiliarity aspect to himself as well here
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: in this game. So all that being said, I'm gonna
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: go with Miami in this game. Man, it looks like
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 2: the money is agreeing with it and kind of going
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: against the public. They're up for minus one oh five
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 2: to minus one eleven, fifty three percent of tickets, fifty
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: five percent of the cash coming in on Miami, so
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: I think they do have the cash, even though Action
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 2: Network is seeing the opposite.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: But we're gonna go with Miami in that one, man.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: And then to finish this off, we're gonna go with
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: another anti public home team that looks like they shouldn't
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: be a favorite because their record is so bad, and
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 2: that's the Braves. But this one, I'm gonna limit it
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: to first five because I think Milwaukee does have the
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: better bullpen at this point. Yes, Milwaukee has the better offense,
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: and yes, by the way, obviously Houston has the better
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 2: offense over Miami too, But again, I like pitching more
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: than I like hitting, and in Atlanta here, yes, we'll
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 2: leave the bullpens out in this one because Atlanta's bullpen
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 2: is very mediocre. I mean, they're kind of in the
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: bottom of the middle of the pack, bottom middle class,
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: whereas obviously Milwaukee They're bullpen isn't pitching really well as
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: of late, and the bullpen rest in this game isn't
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 2: really an advantage one way or the other. Atlanta only
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 2: these two relief pitchers yesterday, Milwaukee on these three, so
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 2: I think Milwaukee does still have a bullpen advantage in
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: this game. But we're gonna go first five innings here
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: and just focus on the starting pitching, where I actually
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: think Atlanta has a big starting pitching edge. So we're
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: going first five innings on the run line minus a
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: half run. You could go money line, but you have
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: to lay about minus one forty I think for them
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 2: in the first five innings because the odds makers know
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's biggest edge is in the first five innings. So
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: the first five inning line on Atlanta is actually more
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: expensive than.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: The full game.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: Full game for one twenty five to minus one twenty seven,
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: seventy four percent of tickets, only fifty seven percent of
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: the cash on Milwaukee. The public is only going to
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: come in on Milwaukee, man, I mean, think about what's.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: Going on here.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: And yes, I know Atlanta doesn't have a whole lot
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: to play for at this point. But look at this, man,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: how could Atlanta be a favorite here when the Brewers
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: have I think, maybe the best record in baseball now,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: And I do think the Brewers might actually win it
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: all this year. Man, the way that they've been playing recently,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: the Braves have a terrible record. I know. The professional money,
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: as I keep saying, tends to come in on the
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: Braves every single day thinking, well, the Braves are just
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: not as bad as their record looks, and the Braves
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: keep losing. And I did actually go with Milwaukee in
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: the first game of the years and it was a
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: close call, but they did get there despite only getting
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: three hits in the game. And yes, I know the
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: Brewers also have a pretty good record on the road,
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: Braves not even good at home. I understand all that,
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: but it's only first five innings. I think this is
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: a lopsided starting pitching matchup, actually in favor of Atlanta
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: with their one good healthy starter, because Atlanta's starting rotation
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: is decimated by injuries. Man, so their only remaining good
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: starter is pitching for them today. As a sale of Smith,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: Shaver Schwellenbach. They're all hurt Grant Holmes is also hurt
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: so and Lanta is completely decimated. Man, But Milwaukee, they're
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: on the verge of a sweet beer. And I know
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: we're jumping in front of a train where Milwaukee's won
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: five games in a row, but I think Milwaukee's actually
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: in a bad situation here too. So if you wanted
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: to go Atlanta full game, I would still agree with it.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: I mean, Milwaukee next weekend series against and the Mets
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: are pretty likely to get into the playoffs, I would say,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: so that could be a playoff preview game as well.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: We know Milwaukee got eliminated by the Mets from the
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: playoffs last year, so that's a big series for the
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 2: Mets coming up there, so they might overlook at Land
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 2: after beating them both games of the series so far.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: And I'm not sold on jose Kintana man for the Brewers.
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 2: I know he is a good era three point five era,
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: but he's actually the worst of the Brewers starters at
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: this point. Man, their starting rotation is so good now
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 2: and now with Logan Henderson looking like he might be
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: really good as well, this is a really good Brewer rotation.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: Kitana is actually the lesser of all of them. One
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: point three to five whip is not good. His whip
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 2: is too high. He is an aging veteran man. He
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: is smart.
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: He knows.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: He knows how to locate his pitches. Man, he knows
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: how to use his pitches effectively. He's not a hard thrower.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 2: He's mostly kind of a junk, you know, off speed guy.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 2: He's been better on the road to two point four
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: to nine ERA in the road.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: I get that.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: I know Milwaukee's offense is also better on the road,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: but I still don't trust Quintana man four point zero
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 2: three ERA. Last month he started to slide a little bit.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: He's only gone five innings in each of his last
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: couple outings against Miami and Washington, who aren't like lead offenses,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: and he only had a six to four strike a
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: walk ratio over that span. He's also allowed five home
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: runs over the last three starts, which is not a
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: great sign either. So he's not in the greatest of
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 2: form right now, really, man, So I think he is fadable.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 2: The Braves actually hit him well, they've seen a lot
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: of him one hundred and four at bats. I mean,
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: he's been around for a while. He was on the
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: Mets for a while, Braves know him. Twenty two to
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: twelve strike a walk ratio is not great for Kintana
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: three twenty seven batting average for the Braves against him
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: nine to eighty three ops, So the Braves have really
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: good hitting numbers against him. Man in six home runs
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 2: as well. If you want to look for player Pops,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: I'll bes or however you pronounce his name, has an
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: eight for sixteen eight for sixteen line off him with
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: three home runs, two doubles, a walk, and two strike cuts,
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: so he does really well against him. And Ozuna is
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: eleven for twenty six with a home run and three
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: walks off him, so maybe hits plus runs withss arrbis
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 2: with those two guys with the Braves, hitters actually do
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: well against Kintana. And like I said, the Braves had
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: their one trustworthy starter on them mount here with Spencer
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: stride or three point seven to one ERA.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: One point two to whip.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: He's better at home three point oh seven e RA.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: So we're fading one split and playing the other split.
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: And yes, I know his walk rate has been too high.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 2: I get it, two or more walks in the last
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: four outings. Yeah, but he's allowed three or fewer runs
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: in every start going all the way back to the
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: beginning of June his first start in June, so he
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: is pitching effectively. He's a really high strikeout pitcher. I
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: don't mean he's high on drugs. I don't mean he's
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: a doc ellis throwing games on LSD, throwing no hitters
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 2: on LSD. But he has a high strikeout rate thirty
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 2: five strikeouts in twenty eight and two thirds over the
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: last month. Twelve walks, Yes, again, I understand that's too
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: many walks. Five home runs isn't that great either, But
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: he's not really that hittable. He is still a good
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: pitcher man. He obviously has real good strikeout ability, and
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: the Brewers are actually really unfamiliar with him. Only two
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: of their hitters, Vaughn and Yelich, have ever seen him before.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: Yelich has the only hit offf him. They're one for
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: six off them, with no extra base hits, no walks,
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 2: three strikeouts, one sixty seven average, three thirty three ohs.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: So Strider not only is the better of the two
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: pitchers here, but he has a big time unfamiliarity edge.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: Over Milwaukee's bats as well. So We're to do it.
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: We're gonna fade the public here, you know. I like
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: seeing a market read like this. Man, we have the
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: public all coming in on a road underdog. So the
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: anti public side is a home favorite. I mean, that's
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: one of the best things that you can do, is play.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: A home favorite.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: And I understand usually when you get a home favorite
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: like that, you're playing on a good team. I do
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: understand the Braves are not a good team at this point,
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: but I do still agree that in general they have
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: more talent that what their record shows.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: And this is their best starter on the mound right now.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: I'm met out of.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 2: Their starters who are actually active. So we're gonna go
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 2: with it, Atlanta Braves.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: Oh I am sure.
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: I was gonna say, I'm I sharing my screen. I
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 2: am I Streamyard changed the UI, so I'm like.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: What the fuck? So yeah, Braves will be the play
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: of them. That's gonna do it. Man. So once again,
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: first five inning under four in Indians.
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: Match, we're going full game Miami Marlins money line, and
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: we're going first five inning run line Atlanta. That does
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: mean Atlanta has to be winning after the first five.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: You wanna go run line? I mean, sure, but it
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: is more of a price. This is the way to
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 2: get a much more advantageous price. I think they do
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: have to be winning though if it's tied, that bet
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: will lose if it's tied at the end of five.
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: But I think we can get that one done. That's
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: gonna do it for today.
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 2: Man, Learn a tone on Twitter, and learn a tone
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: on Instagram where I post the better off Dead best
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: bets in shorter form. What else we got obviously better
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: off Dead, YouTube, Spotify, Apple, all the audio stuff, man,
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 2: So give it a listen, give it a watch, help
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 2: me out rate, you know, subscribe, interact, let's get the
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 2: YouTube monetized finally, man, that would be very helpful. Hopefully
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: people like my content, even though it's just me autistically talking,
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: and hopefully you have the bets start turning in around
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: and doing better.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: Man. You're gonna have a lot of.
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: Losers when you're betting, like grinding like this, man. But again,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: the goal is about fifty three to fifty four percent
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: right now, so you are gonna have a lot of
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: losing plays in there. But that's just the name of
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: the game. Man, So you'll seem really stupid at times.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: But you need more wins than losses, and that's what
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: I've done over almost two decades at this point, so
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: let's keep it up. That's gonna do it. Covered in
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 2: you because my yuke project that's on YouTube. I did
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 2: just release an album of ukulele originals for Low lead
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: to Diaries. It is her birthday today, so happy birthday
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 2: to her. Hopefully she likes the album there it is.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: There are some really really.
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: Stupid songs that I wrote for that album, man, so
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: we'll see what people think about that. I might put
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: it out on the YouTube channel as well. I don't know,
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 2: but I do have a patre on patreon dot com,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: slash learn to toad and the benefits are at the
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: higher levels you get a Spotify feed with the yuke
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: stuff that I put on Twitter, and highest level you
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: get prioritized yuke requests. That's gonna do it once again.
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: Everybody have a good day today, Happy Wednesday and peace