Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 8/31/26: U.S. Resumes Iran Strikes, Top Generals Rebel, Trump To Steal Venezuela Oil, NBC Crew Attacked By Settlers

Transcript

8/31/26: U.S. Resumes Iran Strikes, Top Generals Rebel, Trump To Steal Venezuela Oil, NBC Crew Attacked By Settlers · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Sagar and Crystal here.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,
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• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody. Happy Monday. Have an amazing show for
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Good to have you back.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Thank you.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: It's nice to be back. I was telling you I
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: was having this, like, stress dream that I was back
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: on the show, and I didn't know what was going on,
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: and I was unprepared. And I said she'd be fine anyways.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: I could probably bullshit my way through it. In any case,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: we have a lot to get to this morning. Iran
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: and the U.S. back to trading strikes, so that is
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: highly significant. We'll break down what happened and what the
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: fallout will be. Pete Hegseth has apparently hired a bot
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: army at the Pentagon, and we are getting significant leaks
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: about opposition from top brass in the Pentagon to continuing
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: the Iran war. Trump is announcing we are officially now
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: stealing Venezuela's oil. Rory, our great friend who is an
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: expert on the oil markets, is going to break down
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: what exactly this is all going to mean. Calci and
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Polymarket took a big L at a circuit court with
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: a circuit court ruling going against them, saying that states do,
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: in fact, have the right to regulate these gambling markets.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Milo Yiannopoulos arrested and deported by ICE seemingly at the
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: behest of Laura Loomer. We've got a mugshot. We've got
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: a lot to talk about there. And it appears that
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: rogue AI agents established multiple what are being described as civilizations.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: This is all part of that hugging face hack where
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: you had. Hundreds, actually thousands of agents collaborating together, hundreds
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: collaborating together to go on this outside crime spree. We're
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: learning a lot more about this, and it is truly shocking.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: It's something we all have got to pay a lot
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: of attention to.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: 100%. Dorkash Patel, who we're going to try and get
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: on the show, wrote this incredible write-up about it. I
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: covered some of the details. We're not technical people, so
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: we have to rely on the people involved. who are,
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: and he described it in such a way that it
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: really does merit coming back to. I mean, one of
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: the chilling words of Dworkash was, this will be the
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: last one that I'll be able to understand.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: He's like, this may not be the last warning shot,
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: but it's the last one I'll be able to personally understand.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: Exactly.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: And so, you know, really worth paying attention, not just
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: what he said, but also the reaction to some of
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: it from... the AI industry. Thank you to everybody who
• 2:31
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• 2:34
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  Speaker 1: please share an episode with a friend. It helps other
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  Speaker 1: people find the show. But let's go ahead and turn
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: then to the latest situation with Iran. Let's put A1
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: up here on the screen. Very in the middle of
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: the day. Yesterday, some news, pretty extraordinary news. Earlier today,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: the United States forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Islamic Revolutionary Guard forces were observed preparing to launch rockets
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. So let's
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: put A1B on the screen just to show you how
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the U.S. is twisting itself into knots. CENTCOM says... Iran's
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed in a recent statement strikes
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: by U.S. forces from the IRGC were, quote, an act
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: of aggression. This claim is absolutely false. U.S. forces took limited,
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: precise action against the IRGC, mind-laying forces posing an imminent
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: threat in the Strait of Hormuz. In essence, Iran created
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: the threat. And the U.S. military eliminated it to protect
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: civilian mariners, commercial shipping, and the free flow of global commerce.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: So it is not an act of aggression. It was
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: an act of defense, actually.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: I'm sure if a foreign power struck on our territory,
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: we would look at it exactly the same.
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: Oh, this is not an act of aggression. This is fine.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: It's a limited, precise operation. But to put it in perspective,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: these are the first U.S. strikes in a number of days.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: I think 30 days has been about a month. I
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: saw the claim. It depends how you count it in
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: terms of what qualifies as U.S. or U.S.-backed or not.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: 30 days on the official announcement from CENTCOM. The additional
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: part of it is that oil is back over $ 90
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: a barrel. It comes of last week, Trump claimed that
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: there were no more sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. However,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: clearly that claim was never verified either by CENTCOM or
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: by any other independent body that analyzes these types of things.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: And then finally, it does show at the end of
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: the six-month mark, which officially happened on August 28th, that
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: they are still right back to where they were in
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the very beginning, trying to get oil through, still bombing
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: various radar installation targets or other sea mine laying business,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: and all of it comes down to the Battle of Hormuz,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: a problem which literally did not exist on the day
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: that the war was launched itself, just to show its
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: own humiliation and failure ritual.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: The fact that they felt enough pressure and unease, the U.S. did,
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: to go forward with these strikes, I think is also
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: an indication that a lot of what they've been claiming about, oh,
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: the street is open, we're doing great, all this oil
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: is getting through, no problem, was not fully accurate, I
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: would read into this. The Iranians did respond. Now, it
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: appears to me that they've responded in quite a limited way.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: They fired missiles towards Jordan for sure. There's some debate.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: UAE is claiming that they didn't target another of our
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: bases in the UAE just south of Dubai. Iran is
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: claiming that they did target them separately. UAE is claiming
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: that they intercepted an Iranian drone near their territory. So
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: in any case, it looks like Iran targeted both Jordan
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: and the UAE. In terms of Jordan, the U.S. is saying, oh,
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: we intercepted all of their missiles. However, ABC News does
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: have a report claiming that some missiles did find their targets. Regardless,
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: whichever is the case, we certainly expended a lot of
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: those precious missile interceptors, which, of course, we have been
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: talking about the way that that stockpile has already been dwindling.
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: So in any case, I think as best we can
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: read into this situation, Sagar, it appears that both the U.S.,
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: and Iran tried to keep this to be a limited engagement. Now,
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: what that means on both sides is really, I think.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: Quite up for debate.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Right. Put A3 on the screen while I'm talking so
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: people can see exactly how many of the interceptors were fired.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: You can actually see right there some of the Iranian
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: missiles that were coming in, some of the Patriot missiles
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: as well that were sent to intercept them. Remember, our
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: missiles costing $ 4 million apiece. You're also right, and I
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: parsed some of the language. The language was, quote, nearly
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: all of the missiles were intercepted, which obviously they knew, quote,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: nearly all of them would be intercepted. But that's why
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: it only takes one in order to do a decent
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: amount of damage. And that's exactly what's happened. Let's put
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: A2 also from the IRGC just to try and parse it. So, look,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: it's very bellicose. They say the action was strategic, fatal
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: mistake by the Trump administration, a mistake that will shift
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: the balance against its architects and have significant consequences. The
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: enemy will pay the consequences. of this flawed calculation, both
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: economic and military spheres. But right now, I mean, to
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: be honest, they do seem pretty locked in to this
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: kind of wait tit for tat strategy. I don't really
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: understand it because I don't think it's really working to
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: their benefit. We're going to talk to Rory in a
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: few minutes. But by his independent analysis, there is more
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz. And it's not
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: a lot. It's not 20 million barrels, 25 million per day,
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: which is what it used to be. It's $ 10 million,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: which is enough to float the Gulf countries. It's enough
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to give some of the money or some claim of
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: legitimacy to the U.S. operations, the multiple billions of dollars.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: And they're slowly starting to lose their grip where they
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: kept it dramatically down in the very beginnings of the war.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: At the same time, we know, at least for certain,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: there's no oil getting or there's no money coming into Iran,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: like there's not even remotely. And we've seen lines, this
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: is independent analysis from the Financial Times and others, on
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: the ground in Tehran saying, look, gas lines are starting
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: to be seen all over the city, fuel rationing, hyperinflation.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying that they're close to crumbling whatsoever, but
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: I'm saying the effect is beginning to be seen. So
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: how much longer are they going to sit there and
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: take that. Their own internal strategy at this point, it
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: doesn't make a lot of sense. It seems to make
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: sense for them to escalate the war dramatically, although they
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: may be waiting another month or two. They could be
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: stockpiling as of right now and hope to launch some
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: sort of October midterm surprise to try and kill Republican chances.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: in the midterms, that's very possible as well.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, let me, to that point, let me read
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: a little bit of Trita Parsi's analysis, both regards to
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: this recent round of strikes and more broadly, his view
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: of the war.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: This is A3C.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: He says the most likely scenario is neither immediate escalation
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: nor a post-midterm return to talks. Rather, in the scenario,
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: the Trump's administration's newfound confidence proves warranted The combination of
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: new sanctions and growing traffic through the southern quarter of
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: the strait has created a new reality in which Iran
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: is hurting more than the U.S., and its trajectory is
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: becoming increasingly but not dramatically negative. Iran will therefore be
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: weaker in a few months and in a less favorable
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: diplomatic and military position. While this will incentivize Iran to counter-escalate,
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: Tehran may choose to delay its response and wait for
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: a more opportune moment. If Washington wants to keep things
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: quiet until the midterms, Tehran may conclude that the He
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: goes on to say.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Its response to tankers in the street, Iranian officials say
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: both publicly and privately they expect the U.S. and Israel
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: to resume the war after the midterms regardless of the
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: impact of the D-Day sanctions. Regional diplomats have largely reached
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: the same conclusion. If sanctions weaken Iran over time while
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: the global economy recovers and adjusts, a prolonged pause will
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: work against Tehran. Iran may therefore decide to escalate dramatically.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: taking full advantage of Trump's perceived vulnerability in the run-up
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: to the election. So that is one possible explanation for
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: why they're keeping things limited now, why they're sort of
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: just taking the economic pain right now, even though, yes,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: over time, it will cause more pain to them. Yes,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: over time, the U.S. has been able to get more
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: and more oil and eat away at their control over
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz. They may be waiting for a
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: particular moment shortly before the midterms to strike. in order
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: to maximize that political damage. That's what Trita thinks, and
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: that's what a lot of others.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Think as well. It would absolutely make sense, especially when
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: you're fighting an asymmetric conflict. Meanwhile, they also have the
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: military problem. The United States does on its side. Let's
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: put A4, and let's move on to this part, because
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: it's absolutely shocking. And up on the screen, military leaders
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: are warning Pete Hegseth against extending Iran war operations. So basically,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: it's kind of a complicated bureaucratic process, but the basics
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: of it are that several military leaders have formally advised
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Pete Hegseth that prolonged large-scale operations against Iran are unsustainable
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: and risk weakening their ability to confront threats elsewhere. Basically,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: the way that it works is that there is a
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense orders book. And in August 14th, the
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: edition of the orders book which were the details that
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: were able to be leaked here to the Washington Post.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: It's produced twice monthly. It gives the worldwide availability of U.S. warships, aircraft, personnel,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: and weapons. This was a highly classified document, obviously, because
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: it keeps an actual ledger of where things are and
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: what they're being used for. It reflects, then, the Secretary
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: and the President's priorities. for force. Inside of that order's book,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: there was a idea that many of the forces currently
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: deployed to the Middle East, some 50,000 Americans that are
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: currently engaged in operations against Iran or supporting them, would
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: be extended sometime into 2027. The leaders of U.S. European Command,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Pacific Command, and Southern Command, along with the Navy's top admiral,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: responded with what is characterized as a, quote, non-concur, meaning
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: that they disagree with with the secretary's order to extend
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: their forces, but will execute it nevertheless. This is actually
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: quite extraordinary. So non-concurs are painted by the Pentagon as routine.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: That is absolutely not true. But they also, for it
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: to be leaked immediately within two weeks so that they
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: are trying to sound the alarm. Really though, I don't
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: want to cover anybody in too much heroism. The truth is,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: this is the ultimate historical cover your ass. As in,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: when the history book is written, and the archives all
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: get open. You could say, oh, well, the admiral said
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: not to do it, and this so-and-so said not to
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: do it. They are trying to put on paper for
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: the future. European command's not stupid. They can see Putin.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: While you were talking, we covered that story about Putin. Obviously,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: we covered the tactical nuke situation, how he's salivating. He's like, oh,
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: no interceptors, huh? A lot of interesting things can start happening,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: let's say, in the city of Lviv and all of
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: these other outposts right on the edge of NATO. Pacific Command,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: they've been sounding the alarm ever since we stripped the
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: fads out of Korea. They were screwed going into this war,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: let alone coming out of it. And so Southern Command
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: as well, responsible for Latin America and for Venezuela operations,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: They see Trump announce a Pentagon deal to try and
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: steal Venezuelan oil. And he's like, well, he's like, could
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: go bad in the future. Stealing Latin American oil always
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: works out definitely very well in the long run and
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: definitely doesn't invite any blowback or other potential consequences. consequences
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: in the region. So all of them can read the
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: news and they know exactly how many weapons they have
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: at their disposal versus what's being used in Iran. And
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: they say, hey, I think this is a really, really
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: bad idea. But nonetheless, not just to put it on paper,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: but then to obviously strategically leak it and try and
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: send the alarm. I have never seen this amount of
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: coordinated response from the Pentagon to try to keep America
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: out of war. It's always the opposite. My whole lifetime
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: has been the opposite.
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: That's so true.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: It tells you exactly how bad things are.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: Usually they leak to try to corner a president in
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: military action so that, oh, you're going to look weak
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: now because the military is saying we need to do
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: X and Y and Z. To have them coming out
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: and being like, we can't do this anymore.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: This is really bad.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: And the way they characterize it, someone who is familiar
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: with the assessment says, said that the overall characterization was
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: that it has been too much for too long.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Too much for too long.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Now that we're over the six-month mark here with regard
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: to Iran. And I have to go back to just
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: the action from last night. I mean, we burned through
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: over 100, very likely, Patriot interceptors in this little, hey,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: let's strike this island and take out these launchers that
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: we're going to, you know, put drones inside of the Strait.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: We burned a significant portion of our remaining... Patriot missile
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: interceptor stockpile. So, and this was just for a very
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: limited engagement. If we go back to war, how is
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: this going to work out? It makes no logical sense.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, they are going to be able to hit
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: their targets more and more and more often. And in fact,
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: some of the speculation is that once again, Iran with
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: this limited engagement yesterday was using up some of their
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: older missiles to try to once again burn through our
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: stockpile so that we are more vulnerable when and if
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: we do go back to more significant hostilities. So it
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: is dramatic for what it says. It also is dramatic for,
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: you know, the fact this is a stunning leak. And
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: I think the White House reaction to it also, soccer
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: says a lot about how upset they are that any
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: of this information got out there. And, you know, they
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: feel that it really undercuts their position vis-a-vis the war.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously it should. Let's put a five on the screen.
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Sean Parnell, the chief spokesperson for over at the Pentagon.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: You guys are going to love this one. Publishing highly
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: classified assessments from the Secretary's order book is a crime. Wrong,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: not true. It is a betrayal of the force, and
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: much of what they're publishing is inaccurate. Okay, prove it.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: He says, of course, we demand candid military advice. Non-concurs
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: our standard. Not true whatsoever. The secretary sees them constantly.
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: Maybe this secretary does.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe this one. That's how you run a real military.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: We are in great shape around the world. This story
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: isn't about readiness. It's TDS and PDS.
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: Wait, what is PDS?
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Pete Hegseth derangement. They hate President Trump and Secretary Hegseth.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: more than they love America. Okay, so it's non-concursor standard.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: So actually, you just confirmed the entire story. Thank you, Mr. Parnell.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: By the way, who are some of the esteemed colleagues
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: of Mr. Parnell? I covered some of this previously with
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: a data Republican who is otherwise known as Jessica Pounds.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: She publishes these unhinged, unreadable screeds on Twitter. It seems
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: that many of her brethren on the social media platform
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: known as X have also been hired secretly by the Pentagon.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: Let's put their response up here on the screen. Both
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: of them went after the reporters, Tara Copp and Dan Lamothe,
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: longtime Pentagon correspondents. They were veterans whenever I began my career,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: just to give you an example. Mr. Lamothe, she says
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: that a Republican for-general's analysis is not the important point here. Actually,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: it is. The article says the information came from the
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: August 14th order book. As the article explains, it is
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: classified and lays out worldwide availability. This is one of
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: the most serious leaks I have ever seen. You are
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: using this to score partisan points against Hegseth. You and
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: your mill Twitter journalist sphere spent a whole week hammering
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: a Doge-affiliated analyst for refusing to leak sensitive documents, accusing
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: her of violating ethics. She's speaking about herself. She did,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: in fact, do that, by the way, because she's such
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: an idiot. She didn't realize she was being handed a scoop,
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: literally on a silver platter. Another one of these gentlemen...
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: I guess, is infantry dort. He says, another day, another
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: piece undermining our countrymen in hopes they are killed so
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: you can get another headline. That's what he says in
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: terms of just publishing, again, information, which I can virtually
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: guarantee you came from the highest levels. of the Pentagon.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: What is MilTwitter? Is it military or millennial? No, MilTwitter
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: is military, yeah. Just don't go down that road, trust me.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: You want nothing to do with it. You're the biggest
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: dorks you'll ever find in your entire life, myself included.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Let's go to a seven then. And it turns out,
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: as we found out with Miss Miss Pounds, that many
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: of these people to who I just showed you are
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: actually being paid or were at some point paid or
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: at the very least were special government employees by the Pentagon.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: And so it turns out that that's Pete Hexeth has
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: scoured the internet for either anonymous or, in some cases,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: I'll be fair, people who post under their own name,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: and gave them a Pentagon-affiliated email and roll inside of
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: his building, which none of these people disclosed. Absolutely shocking,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: including Kurt Schlichter, Rob Maness. You have... Thomas Anderson. Thomas Anderson,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: otherwise known as Cynical Publius, for those who are not familiar.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: You have Data Republican, otherwise known as Jessica Pounds, and
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: you also have Infantry Dort, who I don't have his
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: name here right in front of me, but I believe
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: is actually an active duty military officer inside of the Pentagon.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: And so these people are either, you know, active duty
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: or special government employees. That's why I said earlier, uh,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: some may have been paid some, you don't technically have
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: to be paid if you're SGE, but they did receive
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: a government emails. I mean, look, that's fine. You can
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: do whatever you want. Uh, but you know, you should
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: probably disclose it. If you're going to be out there
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: talking about webs of deep States and going after, uh, I,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: I put up Jessica pounds, his previous attack on journalists
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: or they're for lack, not disclosing anything. They're funding. It's
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: like you literally work for the federal government and you
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: don't tell anybody.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: Works for the Pentagon and compiled some database of people
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: who are DSA affiliated. So you could track what Americans
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: are affiliated with DSA. I mean, this is deeply disturbed.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's really one of those things you can't
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: even imagine happening in other administrations. We're using tax money.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: to pay secret paid shills like this bot army inside
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: of the Pentagon to pump up the.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense. It is so incredibly wild.
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: And, you know, some of these people, what's his name,
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: Kurt Schlichter or whatever, continue to write for town hall.
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: None of them disclosed any of this was going on.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: The Jessica Pounds lady, she was one of those. Remember
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: when they kicked down all of the real journalists at
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: the Pentagon and that you have to sign this like
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: loyalty pledge, basically, that you're not going to do anything
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: they don't want you to do. which is not what
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: journalism is. Anyway, she's one of the ones that's like, yes, me,
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I sign up for that. And the next thing you know,
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: they're like, great, we're going to actually hire you and
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: put you on the payroll to do this as your job.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: And none of this is made public. Completely, completely insane.
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: It also shows you their mindset. Like they're so Twitter
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: brained that they think that the whole war of public
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: opinion is happening on these online spaces and on Twitter
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: in particular. So anyone that had like a decent following
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: that was in or adjacent to a military sphere that
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: they thought could shill for them in anything approaching an
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: effective manner, they're like, all right, come on board. We'll
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: get you actually in-house. We will make you a government,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: special government employee or expert. and let you do this
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: as your whole thing.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. And by the way, just to prevent any of
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: them coming. So you said payroll. We should try to
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: use this as an expression because many have denied that
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: they're actually being paid. But if you have a government email,
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: If you have a government email as an SG, whether
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: you're getting paid or not, you work for the federal government.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Like Jared Kushner, he doesn't work for the government. He
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: works for the government. Elon, he didn't work for the government.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: He worked for the government. We can understand that.
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: And you are clearly being rewarded with access and scoops,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: just like this dumbass Jessica Pounce who couldn't even recognize
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: what was being handed to her and had her whole
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: little meltdown. But that is part of the payment, of
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: the reward. Exactly. Is you get access and you get
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: to be on the inside and you get to know
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: things that the public doesn't know. And that increases your profile,
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: your social media cloud, et cetera.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: Exactly. All right. So we have Rory standing by. Let's
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: get to it. All right.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: Joining us now to break down all of the things,
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: all of the many things happening in the oil market
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: here abroad, Venezuela, Iran, et cetera, is Rory Johnston. He
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: is an oil market researcher and founder of CommodityContext.com.
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: Great to see you, Rory.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: Good to see you, man.
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: Thanks for having me back.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: So let's start off with what exactly is happening in
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz. We can go ahead and put
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: this up on the screen. There's a dispute between tanker trackers,
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: which is saying that over the past seven full days,
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: crude oil exports departing the U.S. Navy blockade line averaged
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: 6.7 million barrels per day. There's a dispute between them,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: between a Goldman analysis, and also between what the president
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: and the U.S. administration are claiming in terms of barrels
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. What is your
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: best understanding of what is happening here?
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: So my numbers are very similar to tanker trackers, and
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: they're very, very good at what they do.
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: They're very, very manual.
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: They both use AIS, which is the satellite-derived signals that
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: we see on maps that we've all become very used
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: to over this crisis, and supplementing that with a lot
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: of idiosyncratic and satellite imagery to kind of fill in
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: the gaps, of which there are many right now. I
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: think the important thing to stress here is that there is,
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: you know, there is a considerable amount of volume going
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: through the Strait.
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: I think that's the first thing.
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: I think, you know, the debate has basically become, is
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: the Strait open or closed?
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: And it is very much both.
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: I also see somewhere between six and seven million barrels
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: a day of oil regularly exiting the Strait, which is
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: about a third of where it stood pre-war. But mixed
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: with some of these offsets is probably around, let's say,
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: half of pre-war levels total coming into the Middle East.
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: that is substantially higher than it was even a couple
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: months ago, but is still obviously nowhere near enough to
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: actually solve the crisis facing the oil market. And on
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: this basis, if this persists, let's say, you know, shambles
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: on for another couple months like this, we're just going
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: to keep leeching out global inventories because it just simply
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: isn't enough oil and oil markets are going to continue
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: to tighten.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah. So, Rory, one of the things that I've been
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: fascinated by is the White House has basically just tried
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: to do a mission accomplished on a straight. Let's put
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: a A-10 up here on the screen. Actually, they quite
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: literally did. Mission accomplished. But in this case, this was
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: kind of an infamous story, if you ask me. I'm
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: curious for your reaction. Barack Ravid and Axios reporting, quote,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: that sucker is open. U.S. gains the upper hand in
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: the battle for Hormuz. I mean, various levels have been
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: reported by the military. In some cases, you know, they're
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: saying 10 million barrels per day. They often give out
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: numbers which average potentially even higher than that. What do
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: you make of many of these claims at the highest
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: level to many of these reporters? Quote, that sucker is open.
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's go through the numbers.
• 25:44
  Speaker 4: And I think it's important to understand why there is
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: disagreement in the first place. Normally, in normal times, when
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: there's not a war and the Strait of Hormuz is
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: totally open, virtually all shipping, with the exception of maybe
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: some dark Iranian transits, are transiting in the open, broadcasting
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: their AIS.
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: We can count them very easily. We've got a lot
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: of good indicators.
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: In the current environment, when everyone has their AIS off,
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: this is what we're calling transiting dark, typically you can't
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: confirm the transit has occurred until after that ship re,
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: you know, turns its ass back on, typically, you know,
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: further into the Arabian Sea or towards Asia. And that's
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: when you can kind of figure out, okay, if it's
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: there now, and you kind of back cast where it
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: was going to be, that is essentially what's happening. And
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: I think they're, again, they're, you know, the numbers we're
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: getting from the White House are indicative, but not helpful.
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: And I think in classic White House form, they're picking
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: weird fights that I think are damaging their credibility. And
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: what could have been if they had just said, Six
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: or seven million barrels a day getting out.
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: Way more than before. Still not enough, but we're making progress.
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: Myself and other analysts have been like, yep, you know,
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: that's roughly correct. It is likely true that Hormuz, you know,
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: that Iran is beginning to lose some control of the
• 26:54
  Speaker 4: Strait of the Hormuz. and the US position militarily is
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: improving on this logistical point. But instead they said 9 million,
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: then 10 million, just high enough to make tanker trackers
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: and other analysts like myself say like, okay, this is
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: probably exaggeration, this probably isn't true. And they got lost
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: in the debate instead of actually celebrating the progress that
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: the US military and the US Navy has actually legitimately made,
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: which is impressive given the current context.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: Got it.
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: Lastly on this topic, Rory, so we've been covering these
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: new strikes back and forth between Iran and the U.S.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Very noteworthy to me that the U.S. decided to strike
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Larrak Island. They said that Iran was preparing to launch
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: new drones in the Strait of Hormuz. What do you
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: make of that in the context of the oil markets
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: and the reality of what's going on in the Strait
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: of Hormuz?
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: I think one of the interesting questions right now in
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: the debate that's currently happening is essentially, is Iran letting
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: this seven-ish million barrels a day of oil transit the
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz, or are they being prevented from stopping it?
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: And what the U.S.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Navy or U.S.
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: Military is claiming, CENTCOM, is saying that basically they've destroyed
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: rocket launchers, missile launchers, drone launchers, and radar, all the
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: things that would have been used to threaten this shipping
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: in the first place. Under that interpretation, Iran basically can't
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: do much more than it is currently doing, which supports
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: this argument that that Iran is losing control of the strait.
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: We'll see whether or not they can continue, whether or
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: not that remains the status quo. But right now it
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: does look like, you know, whether or not Iran likes
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: it or not, we're getting, you know, the U.S. Navy
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: is getting seven-ish million barrels a day through, which is
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: enough to keep oil markets from kind of erupting violently,
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: even if it's still not enough to actually, you know,
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: close the gap and realign supply and demand. But I
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: do think that if this continues, you know, this is
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: eroding Iran's kind of, you know, time-dependent weapon here. that
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: for a long time, I and many other analysts believe
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: that time was on Iran's side. I still think in
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: a longer term sense, that's true, but it might be
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: too long now. And I think that Iran, if this continues,
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: is going to need to attempt to re-scare traffic and
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: commercial shipping through the strait in order to get those
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: numbers back down. But now it's essentially a tug of
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: war between those two points.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the general analysis of almost every strategist that
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: I've seen on this, is that they have to try
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: and reassert some control, especially as they continue To be squeezed.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: So we originally also wanted to talk to you about Venezuela.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Let's put B1 up here on the screen. Details of
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: this are genuinely crazy. They say inside Trump's plan to
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: give the Pentagon a stake in Venezuela's oil riches, the
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: deal caps months of secretive negotiations, which gives the U.S.
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: rights to some of the world's largest proven oil reserves.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: And it appears this involves the United States government taking
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: a stake in this company, some sketchy, aligned businessmen who
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: are there on the ground. They're claiming he. proven reserves
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: and billions of dollars being invested. What do we know
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: about this, Rory, and how real actually is any of it?
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: It's still really, really hard to tell.
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: First of all, all of this is going to be
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: caveated by this is obviously, as you noted, very crazy.
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: And I think At this stage, all we really know
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: for sure is what we're being told by the White
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: House and by the Delsey administration in Caracas. So everything
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: I'm going to say, take with a massive.
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: Dollop of salt. But first on this reserve point.
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: So the numbers that we're hearing in this deal is
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: that the fields in question that had these rights have
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: been given to have a combined proven oil reserve or
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: associated as the president, as the Venezuelan president said. oil
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: reserves of 65 billion barrels. That is a huge amount
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: of oil and larger than the United States total proven
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: national oil reserves. This is the actual total amount of
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: economically and technologically accessible oil in the ground. That said,
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: that number, you know, Venezuela has always claimed an enormous
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: 300 plus billion barrels putting at the very, very top
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: of the global leaderboard of these proven reserves. Yet despite
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: this massive stockpile or geologic bounty of They've never really,
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: or at least recently, have not managed to produce much
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: more than a million barrels a day. They need much
• 30:50
  Speaker 4: more capital, much more expertise. This is where the United
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: States comes in. But they've never been able to produce
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: anywhere near the level that those reserves would indicate. So
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: the important thing is not the reserve base, even though
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: that's the big number that Trump's going to talk about.
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: The importance is how can they actually get these fields
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: into producing order again?
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: Now, this is where the.
• 31:09
  Speaker 4: Deal we've seen so far, imagine something like $ 100 billion
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: of investment poured into these fields. Yes, if that actually happened,
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: that would make a huge difference and would dramatically increase production.
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: And that is where the Venezuelan government could see this,
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: you know, 200 plus billion dollars of additional tax revenue
• 31:25
  Speaker 4: coming in.
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: But this is still extraordinarily early days.
• 31:28
  Speaker 4: And I honestly fear for the White House here, like
• 31:31
  Speaker 4: let's let's steel man their position at the beginning that
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: I actually think, well, the legality was, let's just say, charitably,
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: extraordinarily tenuous of the of the removal of Nicolas Maduro
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: earlier this year.
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: I think history would have been relatively kind in hindsight
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: to it.
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: I think no one was a fan of Maduro and
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: the trajectory of Venezuela was improved after his departure.
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: But I think reinjecting this.
• 31:54
  Speaker 4: Very clearly like neo-colonial language around Washington seizing resources in
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: a extraordinarily, you know, resource nationalist economy in Latin America,
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: just is the ultimate thing, like the thing that would
• 32:06
  Speaker 4: just so easily spoil what could have otherwise been a
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: promising trajectory.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, and to your point, if we put B2
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: up on the screen, unsurprisingly, you have basically every side
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: of the political debate in Venezuelan politics being like, I'm sorry, what?
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: What are we doing with the U.S.? And it also
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: appears to even violate the Venezuelan constitution, which demands Venezuelan
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: sovereignty and national possession of their own reserves. So not
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: popular thus far in terms of the reaction from Venezuela.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: But I also wanted to ask you, Rory, You had
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: a bunch of big oil companies that the Trump administration
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: wanted to come in and do this investment themselves.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: This weird, you.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: Know, we're going to take a stake and do this
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: deal with the sketchy businessman thing only came about because
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: all of the big oil and gas companies said, we're
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: taking a pass.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: We don't want to do this.
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: We don't think that this will ultimately work out to
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: be profitable for us. So why would we think it's
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: going to go better for the U.S. government than it
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: would for like ExxonMobil?
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: An excellent question.
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: I do think, and to be charitable here, there has
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: been progress. Chevron, which has been the country for, you know,
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: this entire time, has announced additional investment. It did look,
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: we were starting to produce more in Venezuela. There was
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: a beginning of a turnaround. But I would argue that,
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: you know, apparently it wasn't going nearly fast enough to
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: validate the White House's narrative around a Venezuelan turnaround of
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: the industry. And that's where I think this comes from. Again,
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: I think that if left alone, I actually think it
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: would have gradually improved and we would have seen over
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: the next five, 10 years a real turn. But this
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: kind of impatient, abnormal injection of politics and policy. and again,
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: imperialism into this discussion is just the fastest way to
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: start scaring off anyone else. I think there's going to
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: be very, like many, many questions after Trump leaves office
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: about what was exactly agreed to by whom, who got
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: what kickbacks, et cetera. I have no doubt this is
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: going to be tied up in hearings for years to come.
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: And I think any country that any company that wants
• 34:12
  Speaker 4: to get involved in Venezuela is going to want to
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: steer clear of this kind of complication.
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: I think they've got enough going on.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: So the other question here was about Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: We can put B4 up here on the screen. Again,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: this is just why it's useful to speak to an
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: expert on this. Trump obviously sees some political danger. A
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: lot of people have heard about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: Trump says, one of the things I'm going to do
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: with the Venezuelan oil is fill up the Strategic National Reserves,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: which because of sleepy Joe Biden had been virtually emptied.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: The topping out process will begin very shortly and is
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: a gift from Venezuela to To the people of the
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: United States. So, Rory, first of all, where does the
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: reserve actually stand? Should we be worried about it? Is
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: there even enough here to top up the petroleum reserve? Like,
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: you know, fact check the various levels of what's going on.
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: Okay, so I think this is where the word reserve
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: is important because, again, in the initial tweets, Trump talked
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: about doubling the U.S.
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: Reserves.
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: That makes it sound like it's the actual proven reserves,
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: the amount of oil essentially the United States can claim
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: as its own. This is talking about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: which is a different pool of produced oil, not oil
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: that hasn't been produced. This is produced oil that was
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: pumped out of the ground and then repumped into salt
• 35:25
  Speaker 4: caverns owned by the U.S.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: Federal government.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: This was a policy response coming out of the energy
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: shocks in the 1970s. At its peak, at its maximum capacity,
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: it can hold more than 700 million barrels, following, to
• 35:37
  Speaker 4: Trump's point, the release of oil in the 2022 post-Russian
• 35:42
  Speaker 4: invasion of Ukraine crisis. And now Trump's release has brought
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: that reserve below 300 million barrels. No doubt the reserve
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: needs topping up. The challenge here is essentially that virtually
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: all of the oil, all of the oil in the
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: reserve is either light, or medium crude. There is no
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: really heavy, sour crude in the caverns of the type
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: that Venezuela is like.
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: It's the same reason I'm in Canada.
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: Lots of people talk about filling up the SPR with
• 36:07
  Speaker 4: Canadian dill bit or diluted bitumen. Very similar grade to
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: what Venezuela exports. The challenge is that everyone I've talked to,
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: the engineers, basically say that it's not suitable for cavern
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: injection because of the fact that it's diluted. And essentially,
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: that combined liquid, that oil, that basically lighter oil and
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: heavy oil, will separate in the caverns and make it
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: difficult to work with. That's not to say that it
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: can't in the future ever be used, but in the
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: current configuration of the caverns, you would need to reestablish
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: Venezuela's upgraders, which are essentially partial refineries. That could maybe
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: get you there, but that's already going to require tens
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: of billions of dollars of repair, and it doesn't look
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: like that's happening anytime soon. So I would say I
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: do not expect Venezuelan heavy oil to enter the US
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: SPR anytime soon.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Gotcha.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: So put it all together, Rory, both what we talked
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: about with regard to the Strait of Hormuz and this
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: new Venezuela announcement. What do you think the near-term prospects
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: for the oil markets look like going forward?
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: But I would say, based on this news, and I
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: agree that it sounds very flashy, I would say it
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: changes literally nothing for this year. I think that January,
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: the removal of Nicolas Maduro, the removal of sanctions, that
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: whole episode.
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: That was a big change. This is essentially chapter two
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: of that, and nothing is really changing materially with the plot.
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: It is essentially changing some of the main characters, some
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: of the tone, but the story is still that you're
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: going to require tens of billions of dollars and five
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: to ten years to in order to actually see real turnarounds.
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: At this stage, whether or not the US government owns
• 37:40
  Speaker 4: a piece of that, as odd as it could be,
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: is not going to change that materially.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: Gotcha.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: Last thing for you, Rory, is just general about the
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: bigger geopolitical situation. It seemed my analysis, based on all
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: of your guys' reading, was the big X factor for
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: why things didn't go totally crazy over the last six
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: months was Chinese imports falling to a level which we
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: all didn't think Have we seen movement in the Chinese
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: market or any interest in or any change in Beijing's thinking?
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: How long can they keep their level of imports where
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: they are? And if they do dial them up, what
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: will prices begin to look like?
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: Yeah, so you're absolutely right. That is the piece that
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: I certainly did not expect. For context, China's crude oil
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: imports fell by roughly five or more than five million
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: barrels a day, 40 to 45 percent of its total
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: pre-war crude oil import volumes. Massive, massive swing. That bottomed
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: in June. We saw a bump back up, essentially capturing
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: some of that massive exit flow to Hormuz following the
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: signing of the Islamabad MOU between U.S.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: And Iran.
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: They've fallen back down, but not quite as low as
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: they got in June. Say if before was a 5.5
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: million barrel a day cut of imports, now they're maybe at, say, four,
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: three and a half to four. Most of that incremental,
• 38:56
  Speaker 4: you know, use of crude is actually going into re-exports
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: of refined products. China had banned or at least extremely
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: restricted the exports of refined products, a huge issue given
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: that right now, while crude markets are tight, refined markets,
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: particularly for diesel, are much, much, much tighter.
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: China is slowly easing back into that.
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: And what we hope to see is that they jack
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: up those exports from, say, a million barrels a day
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: of products right now up to two million barrels a
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: day of products, which is what we saw when they
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: leapt in to help satisfy some of that deficit in
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: the market in 2022 and 2023.
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: That, I think, is the next upside. But yes, that
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: would ease.
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: Diesel prices and crack spreads, but at the cost of
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: tightening oil. So it's really the whole thing is still
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: kind of a problem.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: Gotcha. Makes sense.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: All right, Rory, thank you so much. We always appreciate
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: your insight.
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Really invaluable.
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: Thanks for having me this morning, guys.
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: Shocking news out of the West Bank, where an NBC
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: News crew and a Palestinian women were beaten by illegal
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: Israeli settlers. Let's take a look at the NBC News
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: report on what happened.
• 39:56
  Speaker 5: We were interviewing a Palestinian woman yesterday named Aida Ahmed Abdullah.
• 40:00
  Speaker 5: Her home in the West Bank, now occupied by Israeli settlers.
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: She says she dies a hundred times a day watching
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: this scene. As Aida took us closer to her home,
• 40:10
  Speaker 5: masked young men in a gray car with Israeli license
• 40:13
  Speaker 5: plates armed with sticks and stones rushed on the scene.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: Whoa, whoa!
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: They smashed our car windshield, hit our crew with clubs,
• 40:23
  Speaker 5: and beat Aida unconscious.
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: Are you okay?
• 40:26
  Speaker 5: Are you okay? We were able to get her to
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: an ambulance, and our team was treated for minor injuries.
• 40:34
  Speaker 5: The attack comes amid a surge of settler violence across
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: the West Bank in recent weeks. So far this year,
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: 76 Palestinians have been killed by settlers, according to the
• 40:44
  Speaker 5: United Nations, among them 18 children. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,
• 40:49
  Speaker 5: who's been accused of turning a blind eye to the violence,
• 40:52
  Speaker 5: released a statement yesterday, accusing the settlers of breaking the
• 40:55
  Speaker 5: law and damaging Israel's standing.
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: In the world.
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: Horrifying images there, that Palestinian woman beaten, unconscious, all for
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: the crime of just trying to access her own home.
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: Because this involves American.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: Journalists, you had some perfunctory- Right, it's a big story.
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: Criticism from the Netanyahu government, but analysts who are experienced
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: with this and how this all works say, This wouldn't
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: happen if you did not have the consent of the
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: Israeli government. Oftentimes these settlers work not just with the
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: IDF sort of turning a blind eye, but actively in
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: conjunction with the IDF. You've had some of the areas
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: where settlers have been attacking and besieging towns in the
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: West Bank. You've had a special military zone declared. And
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: then it only applies to the Palestinians. They're the only
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: ones whose restrictions are, movements are restricted. And the settlers
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: are still allowed to menace and roam at will. So
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: just the latest example of absolute horror there, as they
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: point out in the story saga, you've had 76 Palestinians
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: who were murdered by these people just this year. And
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: then they expect us to believe that, oh, this is
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: just some one-off, this is just some rogue, evildoers, some
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: bad apples, but this isn't representative of Israeli society when
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: obviously it is. It's representative of Israeli society and government policy.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Well, let's put the story on the screen, C3, because
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: you can actually see this in some of the actual statements. So,
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: for example, from Netanyahu, they say the criminal acts of
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: violence committed by a handful of rioters who violate the
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: law cause enormous injustice to the law-abiding settler public and
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: hinder the IDF in fulfilling its mission and harm Israel's
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: standing internationally. in the world.
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: I love how it has nothing to do with, and
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: by the way, Palestinians are getting murdered. It's all, oh,
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: we're worried about the good standing and credibility of the
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: settler community.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Well, what's crazy too is they say that they haven't
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: even really said beyond this perfunctory statement that they will
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: apprehend the perpetrators and bring them to justice. They will
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: not tolerate vigilantism. by any kind of anybody, anyone. But
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: it's just obviously not true because there have been riots
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: up and down the entire West Bank now for over
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: a year. There have been a number of American citizens
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: who have been targeted and have been beaten. We interviewed
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: one of those gentlemen who's literally had to fly back.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's basically camping out in his house being like,
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: come and take it, I guess. And he's a U.S. citizen.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: It's the only reason he has even a modicum of protection,
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: even that may not be enough to actually save his life.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: I think what always leaps out to me about these
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: is the same perfunctory, especially from the United States side,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: people being like, I support Israel, but these settlers are
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: out of control. Look, it's part of their government policy
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: at this point. And from what I can tell, the
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: vast majority of their population just supports it. I mean,
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: being honest in terms of, I mean, if our government
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: was doing something like this, there's just no way that
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: people would be sitting back. At least in my opinion,
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: that people will be sitting back and be like, oh, yeah,
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: this is totally normal and is OK, you know, in
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: terms of tax dollars and more. And in this case, actually,
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: literally is our tax dollars even going to these freaks.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: So it really leaps out. Well, the other thing I
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: think we have to highlight here is how Netanyahu speaks
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: in Hebrew. There was a more recent debate where he
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: was bragging about how great he was. inside of Israel
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: and speaking in Hebrew. So guys, let's go ahead and
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: put C6 on the screen. I'll read from some of
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: the subtitles. This is from Netanyahu, again, speaking in Hebrew.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: And one of the things, here he's talking about Iran.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: He says, it took me a long time to get
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: our security establishment to deal with Iran itself It was
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: also a long time to bring the United States to
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: this understanding. I was able to do that because I
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: had close to a thousand hours on American television. Another
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: thing that he says in Hebrew, again, is he talks
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: about Lebanon. He talks about Gaza. He talks about Syria.
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: Let me read you this direct quote. If my opponents win,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: they will leave Lebanon. They will leave Gaza. They will
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: leave Syria. They will establish a Palestinian state. It won't
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: just be a Palestinian state. It will be a Palestinian
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: state backed by major powers. That will be the end
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: of Israel. We will go into free fall. So bragging
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: about his permanent occupation of Syria, of Gaza, of Lebanon, right?
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, does anybody dispute the borders of Lebanon outside
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: of Israel? No one. Same with Syria. Even the U.S.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: government doesn't. Say, oh, actually, you know, based on our
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: reading of Balfour Declaration, Lebanon belongs entirely to the state
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: of Israel. But this is what the guy says out loud. Yeah, no,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: that's absolutely right.
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: I love Ryan's point on this that, you know, we're
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: always asked whether Israel has a right to exist as
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: a state. And it's like Israel doesn't even act like
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: a state. A state is supposed to have fixed borders
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: and laws that apply equally across the territory. They have
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: neither of those things. So do they even consider themselves
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: a state? Because they don't act like that. They act
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: like some rogue terror regime and menacing all of their
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: neighbors and a good portion of— close to a majority of
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: their citizens. Let me just put this up on the
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: screen for a C4. This is from our former U.S.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: ambassador just to see the incredible level of propaganda that
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: is truly unbelievable that they continue to try to push.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Again, this was a U.S. government official here.
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: He says, here's the other side of the settler violence,
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: which he puts in quotes. Headlines from yesterday. The Jews
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: seem to have been attacked on Shabbat, so the Palestinians
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: could get ahead of the media. When the Jews push back,
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: the cameras start to roll. If you think this was
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: not encouraged and even caused by the 45 Democratic senators
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: publicly condemning settler violence, you don't understand the Middle East. Again,
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: political vacuums generally are not filled well. Time for one more.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Jewish state.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: So he's blaming the Democratic senators who, you know, put
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: out some perfunctory statement condemning settler violence for the now
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: 76 Palestinians who have been murdered.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Completely insane.
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: And there's actually a lot of documentation that what happens
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: is after religious services, these illegal settlers will then go
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: out and take advantage of the fact that you are
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: likely to have a lower police and military response on
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: those days.
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: To go out and menace.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: So that is why a lot of the attacks begin
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: on the Jewish holy day, because it's not because the
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: Palestinians are starting a fight. It's because that is the
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: opportune time that the settlers have found to go out
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: and begin their pogroms and their campaigns of terror. We
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: did want to bring you some positive news here on
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: the U.S. front in terms of the administration's authoritarian free
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: count over quote-unquote anti-Semitism. There's been a major court win
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: in the fight for free speech and against those trumped
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: up charges of anti-Semitism. Let's go and put this up
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: on the screen. This was thanks to our friends over
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: at FIRE. Federal court rules that the statutes the Trump
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: administration used in its speech based deportation scheme are unconstitutional.
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: So you will remember in some of the most prominent instances,
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: Mahmoud Khalil, Ramiza Ozturk, Moshe Mondavi in particular, that the
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: administration was arguing that they could deport them simply because
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: they had said things in Ramiza Ozturk's case written in
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: op-ed that they found to be detrimental to national security. Completely,
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: you know, wild, unprecedented in terms of the use of power.
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: So this court found that, no, even if you are
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: not a citizen, if you are in the U.S., you
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: have a First Amendment right and you cannot be deported
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: just because you say something that the U.S. government does
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: not like. Now, this will I'm sure they'll continue to appeal.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: This will continue to make its way up through the
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: court system. But very, very significant ruling here. I'll just
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: read you from a little bit. of what the judge wrote.
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: Judge Noel Wise of the U.S. District Court for the
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: Northern District of California said that, quote, in the U.S.,
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: freedom of speech belongs to the people. It is not
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: the governments to take. Foundational to America's enduring democracy are
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: our freedoms of speech and the press embodied in the
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: First Amendment. In the U.S., free speech, including the freedom
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: to criticize the government and its leaders, is not a
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: sign of our democracy's fragility. It is evidence of its strength.
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: That strength is diminished when members of our society, citizens
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: and non-citizens alike, must self-censor and behave or suffer the
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: government's retaliation. So this ruling is not directly in regards
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: to the cases of the three individuals I mentioned previously,
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: Mahmoud Khalil Ramizaz Turk and Moshe Mandaoui, However, it is
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: going to have major implications for those cases going forward.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: So significant win here for FIRE and in general for
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: free speech.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: I think that this ruling obviously is obviously an important ruling.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Props to FIRE for doing it. Very few wanted to.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: It extends a reading of the First Amendment specifically so
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: that not only over legal visa holders, but restricts the
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: government's ability to restrain it in any way over both
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: legal and obviously U.S. citizens. I think it's important also,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: especially at a time where you have all of this
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: craziness with the Pentagon hiring these influencers who are then
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: attacking the journalists. I mean, the head of the Pentagon
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: is literally out there, the spokesperson we talked about, saying
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: publishing this is a crime. I mean, that's crazy. He's
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: saying you were what Pentagon papers didn't happen ever before
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: in the Supreme Court.
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: Trump is also saying that he's going to report criminal
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: Kristen Walker to the FCC because she said not all
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: of his endorsements were endorsed candidates were winning, which.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: Is empirically actually true. That's quite literally true. If you
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: look at the at his track record, I think beyond that, actually, though,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: in terms of the Israel exception to free speech on
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: the right is one where I even saw their reaction
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: to this. They're all just like, oh, well, this means
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: we're going to have to work around the court. We're
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: going to try and keep these people out. They are
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: so hyper-dedicated to restricting the debate that it's important to
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: have the court on the side of free speech in
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: this particular case because it highlights resources and what they expend.
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: We saw that, the video of Ozturk. getting arrested. Look,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: the lady didn't break the law. She came here, you know,
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: she was doing a student visa. I read her op-ed.
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: It was anodyne at best. It wasn't even easy to find.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Do you remember? It was on like a tough student website.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: It was like a student newspaper op-ed calling for divestment.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: That's it. No one gives a shit. Like, no offense.
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: But like maybe on... your campus. Beyond that, nobody would
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: have heard this lady's name if you hadn't gotten arrested
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: or on the street. You spent a team of agents
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: to do so. Khalil, the same thing. He's like the
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: most mild-mannered dude, you know, who was out there and
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: would constantly, he was like going to Shabbat dinners. They
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: turned these people into national symbols and made them look
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: much more reasonable than any of the unhinged Zionists who
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: were even on the side in the first place. So
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: the fact is that the ruling is good, but all
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: of it is in service basically to this government and
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: trying to restrict the debate around this. And ultimately, I
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: think that's why, you know, not only the court decision
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: is very important, but the fact is, is that you've
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: got American reporters and team who are out there getting
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: beaten while they're doing interviews with 56 year old lady.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, these are old ladies that are out there
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: doing nothing and they're getting beaten on camera. And then
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: it draws like the most mild mannered, you know, criticism
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: from here in the West with no change in our policy.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: That's what it's all about. Period. Yeah.
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: And the Israelis will do what they think they can
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: get away with. And what they found is they can
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: get away with a lot, whether it was under Biden
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: and certainly now under Trump. Trump said this morning, or
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: maybe this was from an interview yesterday, that Israel wouldn't
• 52:41
  Speaker 2: exist if he wasn't president. So everybody do with that
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: information what you will. All right, Sagar, we've also got
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: an update from the courts on the betting market.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: Let's do it.