Latest / Balance of Power / Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Europe and Trump, Key Sectors to Watch
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- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.
- 0:09Speaker 2: This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse on the Balance
- 0:13Speaker 2: of Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence
- 0:17Speaker 2: Senior Policy Analyst and friend of the show Nathan Dean
- 0:20Speaker 2: shares his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital.
- 0:24Speaker 2: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from
- 0:27Speaker 2: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's
- 0:30Speaker 2: Nathan Dean.
- 0:32Speaker 1: Good morning and good afternoon, everybody. My name is Nathan Dean.
- 0:35Speaker 3: I'm a senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence here in
- 0:38Speaker 3: the Washington, D.C.
- 0:38Speaker 1: Bureau.
- 0:39Speaker 3: I want to say thank you for joining us. Sorry,
- 0:41Speaker 3: I'm a little jet-lagged at the moment. I have had
- 0:43Speaker 3: my coffee. Thank you for joining us at the BI
- 0:46Speaker 3: Washington Policy Pulse. And also, thank you to those of
- 0:49Speaker 3: you who are coming in and listening to us via
- 0:52Speaker 3: the Balance of Power podcast.
- 0:53Speaker 1: We always appreciate your listening.
- 0:56Speaker 3: Today is October 19th at 10.02 a.m. The election is
- 1:01Speaker 3: almost two weeks away. And that's where I want to
- 1:03Speaker 3: start at the moment. I'm going to pull up WSL
- 1:06Speaker 3: Election Go. I'm going to share my screen in a second.
- 1:09Speaker 3: And we're going to show you what the latest are
- 1:11Speaker 3: in terms of. the prediction markets. So what we have
- 1:16Speaker 3: right here is we have all of the CalSheet data
- 1:20Speaker 3: that is coming in, and you can see that the
- 1:22Speaker 3: number really hasn't changed all that much. Will the Democrats
- 1:26Speaker 3: sweep both the House and the Senate at 62%? That
- 1:28Speaker 3: actually should tie up with what the Senate is seeing
- 1:31Speaker 3: at 62%.
- 1:33Speaker 1: The House is at 90%.
- 1:33Speaker 3: Now, we've seen this number high, this 62% number on
- 1:37Speaker 3: the Democratic side as high as 64%. We've seen it
- 1:39Speaker 3: as low as 61%. But we have not seen this
- 1:42Speaker 3: number tighten be after the U.S. Labor Day holiday. And
- 1:46Speaker 3: that's generally where a lot of folks, including myself, would
- 1:49Speaker 3: actually anticipate this number to tie up and get a
- 1:52Speaker 3: little bit better for the Republican Party. Now, if we
- 1:54Speaker 3: look at what's happening here in the Senate races, you
- 1:56Speaker 3: can see here in Alaska, former Representative Mary Palo Alto
- 2:00Speaker 3: has got a 74 percent chance. We can go down
- 2:03Speaker 3: to Georgia where Senator Ossoff is at a 95 percent chance.
- 2:07Speaker 3: But then some of the interesting races that are really
- 2:09Speaker 3: looking at it, and as a reminder, if the Democrats
- 2:11Speaker 3: are going to take the Senate, they have to net
- 2:12Speaker 3: four seats. It really comes down to Iowa, the Republicans leading, Kansas,
- 2:17Speaker 3: where the Republican is leading, Maine, where Susan Collins is
- 2:20Speaker 3: actually behind, and Michigan, where Abdulaziz Saeed is up at 69%.
- 2:25Speaker 1: Now, for the Democrats to have any chance, it's this
- 2:27Speaker 1: race right here.
- 2:28Speaker 3: Now, is Susan Collins at 40% compared to Troy Jackson
- 2:33Speaker 3: at 60%?
- 2:34Speaker 1: I think this is actually fairly tighter.
- 2:35Speaker 3: In fact, I spoke with a couple of individuals from
- 2:38Speaker 3: Maine over the weekend, and they think.
- 2:39Speaker 1: Back home, this is just anecdotal.
- 2:42Speaker 3: There's no scientific reasoning behind this, but they think anecdotally
- 2:45Speaker 3: this is actually closer to a 50-50. I know a
- 2:48Speaker 3: lot of folks are interested in what's going on in Texas.
- 2:51Speaker 3: Representative James Tallarico has a 62 percent chance. So if
- 2:54Speaker 3: you look at the prediction markets, it suggests that the
- 2:56Speaker 3: Democrats are going to have a decent shot of taking
- 2:58Speaker 3: the Senate. So what is President Trump going to do
- 3:01Speaker 3: in regards to that this week? Well, he's going to
- 3:04Speaker 3: go on the road. As a reminder, Congress doesn't come
- 3:06Speaker 3: back until after the election on November 9th. So President
- 3:09Speaker 3: Trump is going to go to Kansas today to actually
- 3:12Speaker 3: stump for Senator Marshall. And then he's going to go
- 3:15Speaker 3: to North Carolina on Tuesday, which is really interesting because
- 3:18Speaker 3: Democrats and Republicans have both pulled money out of the
- 3:21Speaker 3: North Carolina race, where former Governor Roy Cooper has a
- 3:24Speaker 3: tremendous lead in the Senate. And also I would just
- 3:28Speaker 3: note is that President Trump, before he gets on the
- 3:30Speaker 3: campaign trail, does have an executive order signing today at
- 3:33Speaker 3: 11 a.m. I don't know what that executive order is about.
- 3:37Speaker 3: Most likely than not, it's going to announce a study.
- 3:39Speaker 3: Or just as a reminder, most executive orders are symbolic
- 3:43Speaker 3: in nature. We aren't really seeing a lot of stuff
- 3:46Speaker 3: coming out from the White House.
- 3:47Speaker 1: One of the biggest.
- 3:48Speaker 3: Questions we got from Europe last week is that, is
- 3:50Speaker 3: President Trump, can he do anything to address affordability ahead
- 3:54Speaker 3: of the U.S.
- 3:55Speaker 1: Midterms?
- 3:56Speaker 3: And our response to that was, it's probably too late.
- 4:00Speaker 3: because we even saw an executive order just last week
- 4:02Speaker 3: in the energy sector essentially waiving limits for certain types
- 4:05Speaker 3: of diesel to be used on the road. Our energy
- 4:08Speaker 3: analysts looked at it, didn't really think it was all
- 4:10Speaker 3: that big of a deal. And regardless, what the price
- 4:12Speaker 3: of diesel is around $ 6. 50, sorry, $ 6.
- 4:16Speaker 1: 50, even if.
- 4:18Speaker 3: You were to get a dollar decrease off of diesel,
- 4:20Speaker 3: let's just say President Trump can waive a metric one,
- 4:22Speaker 3: get that buck off, the American consumer is not going
- 4:25Speaker 3: to really feel it all that much. So, you know,
- 4:28Speaker 3: one of the things is I just got this question
- 4:30Speaker 3: this morning from a client. Do I think the Democrats
- 4:32Speaker 3: are going to take the House of Representatives?
- 4:34Speaker 1: Absolutely, yes.
- 4:35Speaker 3: Do I think the Democrats are going to take the Senate?
- 4:37Speaker 3: It's probably closer to a 50-50 than it is at
- 4:38Speaker 3: the 60% that the calcium market has. And then that
- 4:43Speaker 3: begs the question from the client was, well, if the
- 4:45Speaker 3: Democrats do take the House, are they going to impeach
- 4:47Speaker 3: the president? It should be noted that not this past Sunday,
- 4:50Speaker 3: but a couple Sundays ago, the would-be Speaker of the House,
- 4:53Speaker 3: Hakeem Jeffries, had a call with Representatives Raskin and Garcia.
- 4:57Speaker 3: They are the ranking members of the House Judiciary and
- 4:59Speaker 3: Oversight Committees. And I'm paraphrasing here. The idea is, are
- 5:02Speaker 3: they going to impeach the president? They came up with
- 5:04Speaker 3: the answer, no. They came up with the answer of,
- 5:06Speaker 3: we'd rather go after cabinet officials. I'm thinking the Secretary
- 5:08Speaker 3: of Defense, Pete Hegseth, is probably somebody that they're looking at,
- 5:12Speaker 3: and they're also looking at this idea of corporate corruption.
- 5:15Speaker 1: So the next thing I want to share is I'm
- 5:16Speaker 1: going to share.
- 5:17Speaker 3: My screen again, and I'm going to bring you just
- 5:19Speaker 3: our presentation that we used in Europe. And I apologize
- 5:24Speaker 3: that I don't know how to get the screen viewer
- 5:28Speaker 3: to actually operate with Zoom off the top of my head,
- 5:31Speaker 3: so I'm not even going to try. But this is
- 5:33Speaker 3: a presentation that we gave last week in London, Zurich,
- 5:35Speaker 3: and Milan, and just want to give you a couple
- 5:38Speaker 3: of highlights. So on the congressional side, we just talked
- 5:41Speaker 3: about Democrats. There was a significant number of questions coming
- 5:45Speaker 3: about the government funding shutdown versus a debt ceiling. And
- 5:48Speaker 3: strangely enough, a lot of the questions that we got
- 5:51Speaker 3: were actually more geared towards the government shutdown as opposed
- 5:56Speaker 3: to the debt ceiling. Now, the government shutdown, obviously, if
- 5:59Speaker 3: you don't appropriate the money for the U.S. government, the
- 6:03Speaker 3: government shuts down or you have what's called a partial
- 6:05Speaker 3: shutdown where only certain aspects of the government shuts down.
- 6:08Speaker 1: From an equity perspective, it's not that big of a deal.
- 6:12Speaker 3: What our message to clients was is that it's the
- 6:15Speaker 3: debt ceiling that is a big deal. And that's a
- 6:18Speaker 3: great segue for me to tell you about a plan
- 6:20Speaker 3: that the Republicans are putting together for the lame duck period.
- 6:23Speaker 3: The idea here is that the Republicans pass a reconciliation bill.
- 6:27Speaker 3: So let's just presume that the Democrats take the House
- 6:30Speaker 3: on November 3rd. The Democrats take the House. When they
- 6:35Speaker 3: come back on November 9th, the Republicans immediately get into
- 6:38Speaker 3: a reconciliation bill. Now, as a reminder, reconciliation bills are
- 6:41Speaker 3: ways that you can avoid the filibuster. So this is
- 6:43Speaker 3: how the one big, beautiful bill passed. President Trump's tax cuts,
- 6:46Speaker 3: the Inflation Reduction Act, Obamacare, it was all via reconciliation.
- 6:50Speaker 3: So the Republicans would come back here and they would say, OK,
- 6:53Speaker 3: we've lost the House. So what are we going to do?
- 6:55Speaker 3: We are now going to go into session and we're
- 6:58Speaker 3: going to try and get a bill done to protect
- 7:01Speaker 3: President Trump from this debt ceiling drama. Our chief rates
- 7:04Speaker 3: strategist thinks that the X date for this will be
- 7:06Speaker 3: July through September of next year. But we need to
- 7:09Speaker 3: protect President Trump because the last thing President Trump needs
- 7:12Speaker 3: is a debt ceiling drama in the last two years
- 7:15Speaker 3: of his presidency. So you will have a reconciliation bill
- 7:18Speaker 3: that will extend the debt limit by, I think it's
- 7:19Speaker 3: about $ 4 to $ 6 trillion. You would have about $ 75
- 7:23Speaker 3: billion worth of defense aid for the conflict in Iran.
- 7:26Speaker 3: And you have about $ 20 billion worth of farm aid.
- 7:28Speaker 3: All that being said, I'm at a 30% chance that
- 7:30Speaker 3: this bill would pass. I've seen statements from Senator Lummis
- 7:33Speaker 3: and Senator Tillis, who are both retiring on the Republican side,
- 7:37Speaker 3: saying that they're not going to vote for any bill
- 7:38Speaker 3: to increase the debt ceiling. And as I've said on
- 7:40Speaker 3: this call before, lame ducks are lame, and there's usually
- 7:43Speaker 3: high expectations for lame ducks, but in reality, not that
- 7:46Speaker 3: much actually gets done. I mean, it's kind of bad
- 7:50Speaker 3: to be an individual who's lost your seat. I mean—
- 7:53Speaker 3: One of the things is that they kick you out
- 7:54Speaker 3: of your office almost instantly. I mean, they kick you
- 7:57Speaker 3: out of your office. Your staffers have to work out
- 7:59Speaker 3: of temp housing. And you come back. You've lost your seat.
- 8:03Speaker 3: You're no longer in a job. You don't want to
- 8:05Speaker 3: be here. You want to go home. And so that's
- 8:07Speaker 3: usually what happens in a lame duck period. We talked
- 8:09Speaker 3: on the Senate side, nothing really there. But this was
- 8:13Speaker 3: one of the big questions we got was from Europe was,
- 8:15Speaker 3: is President Trump a lame duck? And the thing here is,
- 8:17Speaker 3: is that I have four different ways over here on
- 8:20Speaker 3: the left-hand side for you to be able to see
- 8:22Speaker 3: how President Trump implements policy. And our message to clients
- 8:25Speaker 3: was two things. One, when it looks at the first two,
- 8:28Speaker 3: the executive orders and the bully pulpits, President Trump still
- 8:32Speaker 3: has a significant amount of power when it comes to
- 8:34Speaker 3: geopolitics and also to tariffs. And those are the two
- 8:37Speaker 3: things that President Trump is going to rely upon in
- 8:40Speaker 3: the second half of his presidency, in his second term,
- 8:43Speaker 3: when the folks on Capitol Hill begin to say, look,
- 8:46Speaker 3: I'm not interested in working with you. I'm not going
- 8:48Speaker 3: to stick my neck out if you're not going to be.
- 8:50Speaker 1: Here in two years.
- 8:51Speaker 3: And we are already beginning to see signs that the
- 8:53Speaker 3: Republican Party are beginning to a little bit of a
- 8:56Speaker 3: of fractions out there. I mean, it goes a little
- 8:58Speaker 3: bit beyond President Trump's, them saying to the president, Mr. President,
- 9:03Speaker 3: we don't want you to campaign for us right now.
- 9:06Speaker 3: But President Trump just last week signed a waiver that
- 9:10Speaker 3: would essentially allow him to avoid putting tariffs on Russia
- 9:13Speaker 3: related to the Ukraine conflict, which is what Congress passed.
- 9:18Speaker 3: We know we've talked about this Russia sanctions bill before.
- 9:21Speaker 3: President Trump put out a waiver and we saw statements
- 9:23Speaker 3: from like Senator Wicker, you know, very conservative Republicans saying
- 9:26Speaker 3: that this is not the right thing to do. And
- 9:29Speaker 3: there may be there's going to be legislation that actually
- 9:32Speaker 3: forces President Trump to actually put those waivers or to
- 9:35Speaker 3: get rid of that waiver now. that legislation is not
- 9:38Speaker 3: going to pass. But again, when you see Republicans pushing
- 9:41Speaker 3: against the presidency here, there's a little bit more to
- 9:44Speaker 3: it that could pop up over the next two years,
- 9:46Speaker 3: especially as those Republicans begin to think about what their
- 9:49Speaker 3: chances are in 2028 are. So President Trump's going to
- 9:52Speaker 3: rely more on geopolitics. He's going to rely more on tariffs.
- 9:55Speaker 3: And that was one of our biggest messages is that
- 9:56Speaker 3: 2027 is going to be the year of tariffs. Just
- 10:00Speaker 3: because President Trump has a lot of different tools that
- 10:04Speaker 3: he can use in terms of Section 301, Section 232,
- 10:06Speaker 3: Section 338. He doesn't have to go back to IEPA,
- 10:09Speaker 3: so we are going to see a lot of tariffs.
- 10:12Speaker 3: On the third thing here on regulation, so one of
- 10:15Speaker 3: the things is that In our discussions with clients, there
- 10:19Speaker 3: wasn't a great, I'm trying to, how should I phrase this?
- 10:24Speaker 3: This was a little bit of a surprise to them
- 10:25Speaker 3: when I said that deregulation is going to really kick
- 10:28Speaker 3: off the first half of next year.
- 10:29Speaker 1: And there was some excitement. If you were exposed to U.S.
- 10:33Speaker 3: Financial services, or if you're exposed to crypto, or if
- 10:35Speaker 3: you're exposed to the TMT sector, there was a little
- 10:38Speaker 3: bit of excitement because deregulation is something that's been at
- 10:41Speaker 3: the more of a second or third term tier priority
- 10:46Speaker 3: for the White House.
- 10:47Speaker 1: All the news cycle looks to focus on geopolitics.
- 10:50Speaker 3: But deregulation, there's some interesting work that's going on over there,
- 10:53Speaker 3: especially in those sectors that clients were certainly interested in.
- 10:58Speaker 3: And then we just have our six sectors to watch,
- 11:00Speaker 3: and then I'll let everybody get back to their day job.
- 11:03Speaker 3: The six sectors that we're looking at in terms of
- 11:05Speaker 3: post-midterm elections was energy, Because it's driven by geopolitics, you
- 11:10Speaker 3: are going to see President Trump to continue to try
- 11:12Speaker 3: and bring down the price of oil and the price
- 11:15Speaker 3: of diesel in the United States. There's not a ton
- 11:17Speaker 3: that he can do. He's certainly going to keep trying.
- 11:20Speaker 3: But you are going to see some of the bully
- 11:22Speaker 3: pulpit aspect of the White House, specifically calling out energy
- 11:25Speaker 3: companies to try and do more in Venezuela. But again,
- 11:28Speaker 3: it's a product of supply. There's not enough refineries. If
- 11:30Speaker 3: you were to get all the oil from Venezuela and
- 11:33Speaker 3: bring it to the United States, there's still going to
- 11:35Speaker 3: be supply issues. I mean, it's unfortunate for President Trump,
- 11:37Speaker 3: but it's really tied to Ukraine and the Iranian conflict here. Now,
- 11:42Speaker 3: over at AI and data centers, you may have heard
- 11:44Speaker 3: this story before, but again, until January 20th, 2029, at
- 11:48Speaker 3: 12.01 p.m., AI at a federal level is all President Trump.
- 11:53Speaker 3: In fact, last week I wrote a column, or the
- 11:55Speaker 3: week before I wrote a column for Bloomberg News, And
- 11:58Speaker 3: I said, artificial intelligence from an investment standpoint, from a
- 12:01Speaker 3: policy standpoint, is pretty easy.
- 12:02Speaker 1: It's just one guy. It's all you got to pay
- 12:05Speaker 1: attention to. And so there is.
- 12:07Speaker 3: Legislation going around right now that would potentially, Anthropic is
- 12:12Speaker 3: putting forth a bill. And we'll see this debate play
- 12:15Speaker 3: out a little bit in Lame Duck. But the reason
- 12:16Speaker 3: why I'm not talking about it more is that this
- 12:18Speaker 3: is going to really come up in 2027. But this
- 12:21Speaker 3: idea would be essentially to allow the industry to sort
- 12:24Speaker 3: of police itself and.
- 12:27Speaker 1: Sort of modeled over a California bill.
- 12:29Speaker 3: So, you know, Anthropic is certainly trying to get both
- 12:32Speaker 3: sides of the aisle to support this.
- 12:34Speaker 1: But again, this is going to come up in 2027.
- 12:36Speaker 1: It's not going to come up in 2028. So the
- 12:39Speaker 1: consumer auto side exposed more tariffs. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs.
- 12:44Speaker 3: You're going to have both tariff threats, and you're also
- 12:46Speaker 3: going to have tariff implementation. And as a reminder, and
- 12:49Speaker 3: this is one of the things we told our clients
- 12:51Speaker 3: over in Europe, was that even though Americans don't like
- 12:54Speaker 3: tariffs from the standpoint that they recognize tariffs are a
- 12:57Speaker 3: tax increase and that prices rise as a result, I mean,
- 12:59Speaker 3: I'm generally saying this, but also tariffs are sticky. Once
- 13:04Speaker 3: you put a tariff in play, once you put the
- 13:07Speaker 3: tariff on, it's sort of difficult to take those tariffs off.
- 13:11Speaker 3: And so just something that we'll have to keep in
- 13:13Speaker 3: mind going forward is that any new tariff that comes
- 13:16Speaker 3: up in 2027, depending on the tariff, it may stick
- 13:19Speaker 3: around even if the Democrats win. Defense funding was an
- 13:22Speaker 3: interesting concept. We had several great discussions with defense contractors
- 13:26Speaker 3: last week. For all the talk about gridlock on capital L,
- 13:30Speaker 3: this is the one exception because appropriations still has to
- 13:34Speaker 3: go to the government and appropriations still has to go
- 13:36Speaker 3: out there and actually reach to the defense contractors. And
- 13:40Speaker 3: just to give you our 10, 15-minute view in 30 seconds,
- 13:43Speaker 3: the way I would describe this is that Democrats are
- 13:47Speaker 3: not going to change the funding levels all that much
- 13:49Speaker 3: compared to the Republicans.
- 13:50Speaker 1: Yes, you are not going to get a $ 1. 5 trillion
- 13:52Speaker 1: budget request.
- 13:54Speaker 3: You're not going to get $ 350 billion in reconciliation like
- 13:56Speaker 3: the White House wants. But Democrats or Republicans largely, and again,
- 14:00Speaker 3: this is high-level generalization here, largely agree on what the
- 14:03Speaker 3: overall numbers are. It's just that the Democrats usually make
- 14:06Speaker 3: the Department of Defense go through and put its homework
- 14:09Speaker 3: forth to justify which programs in which anti-missile and counter-drone
- 14:14Speaker 3: technologies this would go towards. But from an investment point
- 14:17Speaker 3: of view, and if you ever need to talk to
- 14:18Speaker 3: Will Lee or Wayne Sanders about this, it gives us
- 14:23Speaker 3: additional headways to identify which programs it's going to go.
- 14:27Speaker 3: So it actually gives you more clarity from the investment
- 14:29Speaker 3: point of view, which contractors are going to.
- 14:32Speaker 1: Go for it.
- 14:33Speaker 3: And then finally, the last two things, financial services. This
- 14:36Speaker 3: is talking about the deregulation and the crypto and the
- 14:38Speaker 3: prediction markets. Senator Cruz actually just announced this morning that
- 14:42Speaker 3: he is going to put out a bill on prediction
- 14:44Speaker 3: markets to essentially really distinguish what it is between gambling
- 14:48Speaker 3: and prediction markets. Senator Cruz comes from the camp that
- 14:51Speaker 3: he views most of the prediction markets as gambling, so
- 14:54Speaker 3: he would be more in the pro-gambling side. The thought here,
- 15:01Speaker 3: I'm trying to think of how to phrase this. I
- 15:04Speaker 3: had a great question come in from a client this
- 15:06Speaker 3: morning from Europe. And it was, how should I think
- 15:08Speaker 3: about prediction markets in 2027? And the way I phrased
- 15:11Speaker 3: it was that you have different pockets of support and opposition.
- 15:16Speaker 3: And each one of those pockets has their own little justification.
- 15:21Speaker 3: For example, you have a very pro-gambling pocket coming out
- 15:24Speaker 3: of Texas.
- 15:25Speaker 1: Why?
- 15:25Speaker 3: Because the casinos are trying to really do some work
- 15:28Speaker 3: in Dallas to add some more casinos to the city
- 15:30Speaker 3: of Dallas. You have the pro-gambling contingent out of Nevada.
- 15:34Speaker 3: You have the anti-gambling contingent of or the anti-prediction markets
- 15:39Speaker 3: contingent coming out of Utah. The Utah delegation is very
- 15:42Speaker 3: much anti-prediction markets. You have consumer protection advocates in the
- 15:47Speaker 3: progressive side of the Democratic Party on prediction markets. And
- 15:51Speaker 3: so you have all these random pockets on prediction markets.
- 15:54Speaker 3: And that suggests that you're not going to get any
- 15:56Speaker 3: legislation through, or at least any type of serious legislation.
- 15:58Speaker 3: We'll see what happens next year. But the thing I
- 16:02Speaker 3: would just say is that we really don't know what's
- 16:05Speaker 3: going to happen because of the election. There was a
- 16:07Speaker 3: report that came out of Politico over the weekend that
- 16:11Speaker 3: Representative French Hill, who is the chairman of the House
- 16:13Speaker 3: Financial Services Committee from Arkansas.
- 16:16Speaker 3: A very safe seat, but that report suggests that his
- 16:19Speaker 3: seat could be under threat. I mean, if you see
- 16:22Speaker 3: the Democrats come in and you see individuals like French
- 16:24Speaker 3: Hill losing their seat, everything that I just told you
- 16:27Speaker 3: in terms of congressional plans for 2027 is going to
- 16:31Speaker 3: be flipped on its head.
- 16:33Speaker 1: Uh.
- 16:33Speaker 3: just because you love your leadership you'll have new mandates
- 16:35Speaker 3: you'll have et cetera new ideas et cetera so again uh.
- 16:39Speaker 1: i wouldn't say that they keep this in the.
- 16:41Speaker 3: In the back of your pocket and finally farming infrastructure
- 16:45Speaker 3: thing to notice far made its trade not aid uh...
- 16:48Speaker 3: this reconciliation bill that i was talking about has about
- 16:50Speaker 3: twenty billion dollars with far made in there i don't
- 16:53Speaker 3: think it's gonna pass it's gonna have to come back
- 16:54Speaker 3: next year uh... but then the question is where's this
- 16:57Speaker 3: for me to get a really go most of it
- 16:59Speaker 3: goes to serve fertilizer and putting down debt But, you know,
- 17:03Speaker 3: I was just had a call this morning with our
- 17:05Speaker 3: machines analyst or the guy who covers John Deere. You know,
- 17:08Speaker 3: he's really interested in this because, look, you know, if
- 17:10Speaker 3: you get some money out to those farmers, they're going
- 17:12Speaker 3: to buy equipment. But right now it looks like that
- 17:15Speaker 3: that's going to be a victim to politics and ultimately
- 17:18Speaker 3: is going to have to be decided next year.
- 17:20Speaker 1: So. I'll say thank you for sticking with me. I
- 17:22Speaker 1: really appreciate it.
- 17:24Speaker 3: Next week, we are going to get a little bit
- 17:26Speaker 3: more granular into certain races on the election side. I'm
- 17:31Speaker 3: going to try and bring in one of our speakers,
- 17:33Speaker 3: our election experts, to really come in and talk about
- 17:36Speaker 3: which races. Ideally, the question is, When you go to
- 17:39Speaker 3: bed on election night, I'll probably be up for most
- 17:43Speaker 3: of the night, but when you go to bed on
- 17:44Speaker 3: election night, what are the races that you should be
- 17:47Speaker 3: looking for on the East Coast timeframe to determine whether
- 17:50Speaker 3: or not the House is going to flip or whether
- 17:52Speaker 3: or not the Senate is going to flip? So that's
- 17:54Speaker 3: going to be our plan for next week. I want
- 17:55Speaker 3: to say thank you very much for attending. We really
- 17:57Speaker 3: appreciate it. Please don't hesitate to reach out and have
- 17:59Speaker 3: a wonderful week.
- 18:02Speaker 2: Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst,
- 18:06Speaker 2: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse.
- 18:10Speaker 2: For more from BI or to join this call live
- 18:13Speaker 2: each week, you can email Nathan at ndean at Bloomberg.net.
- 18:18Speaker 2: That's N-D-E-A-N at Bloomberg.net. Come back to the podcast later
- 18:23Speaker 2: today for the latest edition of Balance of Power.