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The Favorites - NFL Combine, Draft and Analytics with Cynthia Frelund · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by About three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Nolman of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: our very first NFL episode of this long and winding
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: off season, but the NFL never stops. We will discuss
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: the upcoming NFL Draft, this week's combine in Indianapolis, the
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: latest league headlines. We're going to be joined by a
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: very special guest who will be on the ground in Indie,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: but first live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: joined as always by micro hos, my companion Michael Padre
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: might BFF professional better signon Hunter Hero.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: So I am ed, hello, chat, how are we doing?
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: So good? So so good? Today is my wife's birthday
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: and I've been on it. Like I got the gifts.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: I got my kids to get the gifts. I put
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: the candle in like cornbread muffin this morning that my
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: younger son had gone out to get while me and
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: my wife were at dinner last night. I got her
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: like I asked her when I went downstairs today, would
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: you like some lunch? And I brought her some lunch
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: like I am fucking nailing it today.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: The flowers on the way.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get them later, as always flowers. I screwed
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: up on the flowers, like I realized this morning when
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: I got back from running an air that I didn't
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: do the flowers. So I'll get them. I got time,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: good Man, not over Listen. Before we get to our guest, Simon,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: we have to give Matt Mitchell his flowers, speaking of
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: because we had no idea how people were going to
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: react to his pre Civil War tales of gambling, mayhem
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: with Andrew Jackson, and Mutiny on the Sea. But I
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: did get a bunch of texts from friends about how
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: much they love them, and these are not hardcore gambling guys.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: And we did get a lot of positive emails and
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: notes from listeners as well. We will be doing another
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Gambling Stories episode in the future. Next month, We're going
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: to bring on David Schwartz, the author of Roll the
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Bones that Matt liberally borrowed from. I've known David a
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: long time. He's been a professor at UNLV of gambling
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: history forever. He'll have some great, great stuff. How did
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: you feel it went, Simon? Were you happy with it?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Did you get response from anybody.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: I liked it, but you definitely saw the age dispiracy.
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: I heard from people forty five and above, no one
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: for forty five and on there, so I would say
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: sounds about right for that type of episode.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: That's funny. All right, let's bring on our guests. She's
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: covered NFL data, NFL science, NFL everything with the NFL
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Network for almost a decade. Before that, she was one
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: of the few people roaming the halls at ESPN smart
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: enough to understand the impending analytics revolution, and she worked
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: like crazy to get ahead of it. As I remember
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: from our many many conversations back at the world Wood
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Worldwide Leader, she's the impresario of numbers Game with Cynthia Freeland.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the show, Cynthia.
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: That's a nice I'm gonna like. I'm very touched with
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: that intro. Thank you very much, very sweet. I also
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: have like a good, like a real gambling story about
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: my grandpa. I don't know if you've ever heard this
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: one do it, but you know he's now not with us,
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: but in the forties he went into an illegal casino
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: in Toledo, Ohio. I'm from Michigan and he's from near Detroit.
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: He won almost forty thousand dollars in the forties, which
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: was a lot playing craps. And he said, as he
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: tells the story, he heard like the shotgun thing after
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: and they're like, aren't you going to keep playing? He's like,
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: heck no, I'm out of here. He bought the farm.
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: He was very, very poor growing up. He bought the
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: farm that his family was working on. And he actually
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: bought a company that brought supplies for the tables as
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: the casinos were being built in Detroit. So he provided
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: the tables and the you know the kind of the
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: like all the different games at the time there Now
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: we they're very automated, but the time they were far
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: less automated. And that was how I got to go
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: to college, was because well I got a scholarship. But
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: my grandfather really helped my parents out with that stuff too.
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: So all because in the forties he played a bunch
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: of craps and he left when he knew when when
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: to walk away.
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: If you will, you.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Are the legacy of a gambling kingpin.
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: I am the legacy. And he used to take me
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: to the horse track a lot, like unbeknownst to my parents,
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: so I spend a lot of time in a horse
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: track when I was little too all good?
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Is that how you got into it? Is that how
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: you even because I remember you and I used to
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: talk about this all the time at ESPN. There were
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: like four people who were interested in this stuff at ESPN,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: and you weren't even on the broadcasting side, the digital side.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: You were on the business side.
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I was buying big data. I was buying tech
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: companies around big data.
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Uh, explain to people like you know how you made
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: that transition and how you even got recognized that this
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: was a space you wanted to be in.
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: Well.
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: I worked at the League Office in two thousand and
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: eight to ten for Anthony Nodo, who was the CFO
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: at the time, and we were working on a project
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: called season inventory restructuring, a very interesting way of saying,
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: should it be eighteen games, seventeen games, et cetera. And
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: you know, we were going through different permutations of how
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: the bottom line would be affected in all of those
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: different scenarios. Spoiler alert, We're going to have eighteen games
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: pretty soon here. I don't think anyone's surprised or shocked
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: by that, but you know, at that time, I sat
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: with the competition committee, and these are Hall of famers.
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: These are guys who are epic.
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: Coaches, and you get to sit in this dark room
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: and you get to eat snacks and swear and watch
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: football and learn. And I got to ask any question
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: I wanted, what is that off ball linebacker.
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: Supposed to be doing?
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: And they told me, or they said, I don't know,
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: effing no, but like really great stuff. So when I
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: was first doing that, that's kind of when I realized
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: that there was well one I really liked it. I
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: thought it was interesting. And then I went to more school.
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: I learned how to code, and I realized I could
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: apply the same things I was using for financial models
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: to kind of sports models. And then I got a
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: chance to add a data science degree to my arsenal
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: of way too many degrees and whatever.
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: I'm still paying for that. We're good.
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: But ultimately I figured out that there was kind of
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: a way to be involved. And I really always liked
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: sports and trying to get an edge in any particular way.
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: I had a very big comfort level with risk taking.
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: I'm not scared of risk like many people are, and
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: I think part of that was because my grandpa was
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: I mean, he taught me on a bet on ponies
• 7:02
  Speaker 4: when I was little, so ultimately, I you know, I
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: just didn't It didn't feel like this thing that was like.
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: Dark.
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: It felt like fun and interesting, right, like buyer speed ratings,
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: like these are things my groom's like, this is crap,
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: this guy's good, this is like all this stuff, and
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: I just felt very comfortable with it. I don't know,
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: it was just it was common parlance in my house.
• 7:22
  Speaker 4: I guess that's just weird, but I don't know.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: It's wild to me. We've had so many conversations about this.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: I had no idea that story about your grandfather.
• 7:30
  Speaker 5: Oh yeah.
• 7:31
  Speaker 4: And the even cooler part is he flew down to
• 7:34
  Speaker 4: Florida on a plane, you know when people used to
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: get dressed up and to meet with the wholesalers.
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: He was there for a week.
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: He ate breakfast at the same diner every single day
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: and had the same waitress every day. Asked her on
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: one date, then asked her parents if she could come
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: back up to Michigan, and my grandmother flew up from.
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: Oh yeah, uh huh yeah. They got married from one
• 7:54
  Speaker 5: week in Florida.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Crazy right, always losing his mind, right, now, yeah, that
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: is a crazy story.
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: My grandpa was cool, Like he was like, that's a
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: cool man, like Alton he was his name was Alton,
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: but that's just a cool name. And uh yeah, you
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: know he was. He and he had like shotguns. We
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: had a woodpecker in a backyard when you're not really
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: supposed to shoot them.
• 8:18
  Speaker 5: Shot it with a shotgun.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Crazy anyways, that's that's unreal. Oh yeah, all right. So
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: now now you've you've moved on from betting the ponies, you.
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: Escaped, moved on or added yeah at it, got it.
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: I love the ponies.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: You escaped the uh shackles of ESPN executive dumb, you
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: found a home on air and writing you're writing is
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: fantastic at NFL network. You just put out your first
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: mock for twenty five. Explain to people, like, given every
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: thing you've just said about data, data science, how you
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: look at the NFL, how are you doing a mock?
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: How is it different than the way other people do
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: a mock?
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: So I don't.
• 9:09
  Speaker 4: I think the thought exercise and I think there's a
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: lot of different ways you could do a mock. A
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: lot of people look to try to get inside information
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: to divine what a place. You know, what's the rumor,
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: what's the prevailing rumor? Are the Giants going to take
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: all these things?
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: Instead?
• 9:25
  Speaker 4: I said, all right, here's the actual free agent pool,
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: here are their ratings, here's the actual team's cap situation
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: as it stands, and their current draft pick status. In
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: for the sake of my editor and you appreciate this,
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: I'm not allowed to propose trades because I would literally
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: trade out every single pick am So no trades allowed.
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: But ultimately, what you're trying to say is is you're
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: trying to look at all the different ways that you
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: can say, how do we win this year? Given what
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: we know about the different like that you know the draft,
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: the order, what's the kind of the tree scenario? It
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: could be, what's the free agent scenario, like where will
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: oh I don't know Sam Darnold end up and how
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: might that impact them? So I don't typically have a
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: quarterback going to a team first, in large part because
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: the team that's typically picking first is one that needs
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: other things as well. Oh lines are a typical one
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: for me, the Titans. They're better served, at least at
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: this point, getting a bridge quarterback with one of the
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: free agents and then potentially taking in my mock Travis Hunter.
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: He's the most dynamic player, the one that's worth that
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: first pick overall. I know that you know, position wise,
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: quarterback is the most valuable position. However, in this this
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: is a bit of a flavor draft for quarterbacks. That's
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: how my model kind of reads it. So the flavor
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: isn't right for them because they could get Travis Hunter,
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: which would add more value to their bottom line this year.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Right, let me do a quick interruption here of saying no,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Simon's going to want to jump in as a reminder
• 10:54
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  Speaker 5: Chat. You have to call it Joe's on Weed.
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  Speaker 1: I know, I know everybody.
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  Speaker 5: I call it a weed as.
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  Speaker 1: Someone who spent a lot of time in Chicago.
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  Speaker 5: Uh, it's a cool place.
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  Speaker 4: like those in the know, I know You're supposed to
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  Speaker 4: call it Joe's bar on Weed Street. No, it's Joe's
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• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Simon, what's your take on Travis Hunter? What is your
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: take on Cynthia's take that this is a flavor draft
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: for quarterbacks?
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: I mean, you know my view on it chat. I'm
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: so QB heavy when it comes to drafts. I remember
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: two three years ago when we were talking about Houston,
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: they were in talks of just taking Will Anderson and
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: not taking a quarterback, and I said, this is a
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: failure of an organization if they don't take Bryce Young
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: C J.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson.
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: They're just not a real organization because you just can't
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: keep kicking the can down the road, like eventually you
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: just got to pull the trigger. The Browns had kicked
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: the count down the road for years and then they
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: took Baker and then they said, you know what, Baker
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: is not good enough. We're gonna bring in someone else.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: These are the organizations that just don't make it in
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: this league. There's these organizations that are always in the
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: bottom of the league. So I get her points like
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: I'm when I'm going through this draft class, there really
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: is opinion based like there isn't a Caleb Williams at
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: Jaden Daniels or even you know what you want to say,
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: Like there wasn't really a competition. Jadan Denil's been number
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: one pick last year, but there were guys who I respected.
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: It had Jaden Daniels of the higher grade than Caleb
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: Williams this year.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: It's really I got all the scouts. I've talked to Chad.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: It's a really hard back and forth between guys' opinions.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: And then because of the Elder fre agency, like we've
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: heard all the rumors about Stafford, We've heard about Kirk Cousins.
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: So this is a really unique, tough draft class where
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: you know, if you don't love the guys at the top,
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: why wouldn't you just trade down and go go after
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: one of these vets, right Because there is something to
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: take away from getting these vets. So for someone like
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: me that I just never passed in the quarterback, if
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: I need a quarterback and I'm one of these teams,
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: you just ripped the bandit off and take one.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: Like you know, cam Ward, is he perfect?
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: No?
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: Could he be a legit ten to fifteen year start
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: in this league? Yes, this kid has some amazing tools.
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: So it's really interesting breaking it all down where there's
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: a couple of athletes, one in a lifetime type of
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: athletes at the top of the draft that teams could
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: take or can they just take on one of these
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: quarterbacks that they have major questions about, but they just
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: need to do it. So I'm with her, Like, if
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: I was one of these gms and I was stuck
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: in one of these spots, I honestly probably would if
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: I'm trying to save my own ass, to save my job,
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: I probably would look towards the Stafford's Kirk cousins and
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: then hopefully take a quarterback next year because there's just
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: a lot of unknowns about these guys at the very
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: top of the draft right now.
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: Well, look what's interesting. Go ahead, Cynthia.
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: I was gonna say, until the Senior Bowl strat my
• 15:35
  Speaker 4: optimal strategy would have been to get a top end
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: guy that's not a quarterback first round, get the free
• 15:43
  Speaker 4: agent veteran, and then get like a Jackson Dart. But
• 15:46
  Speaker 4: Jackson Dart played himself too highly in the Senior Bowl,
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: and now he won't be available for a low enough
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: cost for that optimal strategy to work. So maybe there'll
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: be another guy who could potentially be this nice. I
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: think you should really be drafting quarterback probably every season,
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: maybe not first overall, but you know, you know, in
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: subsequent rounds. But again, these guys are playing themselves out
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: of my They're not in my good area. You know,
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: get stay in the fourth round, buddy, you're fine. Then
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: you actually be in a much better position long term.
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: And you don't have five years till you get paid.
• 16:17
  Speaker 4: You only have four.
• 16:18
  Speaker 5: Just saying, but you know whatever, Well.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: It's interesting when you talk about there is no Jaden
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Daniels or Caleb Williams, or even any kind of consensus.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: It does feel like there's some consensus building about around
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: cam Ward being, you know, a little bit further ahead
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: of Shador Sanders. Cynthia, you had Sanders ninth I think
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: going to the Saints, and that was until recently one
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: of the lower options for Sanders, and then CBS came
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: out this week and said they had him at twenty
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: second in their mock draft. Mel Kiper has him at
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: number three. Give me your thoughts on how you end
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: up with him, where he is and what you're hearing
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: around the league about that delta between cam Woard and
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Shagar Sanders.
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: So, to start with, you know Shador Sanders specifically, I think,
• 17:13
  Speaker 4: like number one, nobody questions that he's a winner. We
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: know he's won at every level. We know his dad's
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: been there to help him with he has the pedigree.
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: There's a lot of things that are working in his favor.
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: I talked to him at Honors and he was very
• 17:24
  Speaker 4: mad at me for making.
• 17:25
  Speaker 5: Him go nice.
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: But there's a couple of things that are are the
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: metrics are pointing me in the direction of Shador needing
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: a little bit more help than a Jadeen Daniels. I
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: was one of those people who had Jadan Daniels higher
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: because I believe in this modern league right now, you
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: need to be able to throw on the run and
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: on the run being dictated as like, you know, next
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: gen stats has it like eight miles an hour. I'm
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: going to go with six miles an hour. That's the
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: break point I found. But that's like a legit run.
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: That's a ten minute mile, right If you're running that fast,
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: you have to be able to throw on the run.
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: You have to be able to get out of dicey
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: situations because O lines aren't There aren't very many good
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: O lines, and if you're a quarterback, I mean Jane
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: DALs went to an O line that wasn't very good
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: in Washington and was able to make the most of it.
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: Point being, where's Caleb Williams who had a lot of
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: upside for me? He wasn't able to change directions, he
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: didn't have that mobility. We didn't see it at USC
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: and then he gets clobbered. But you know, the Bears
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: O line was no good. I'm sorry, I don't mean
• 18:23
  Speaker 4: to be I don't think I'm telling you something that.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: Ex or facts. There's no alternative facts.
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: Right, I'm not. I'm not. I'm not. It's not.
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: It's not an opinion, right, I'm not. He was under
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: a ton of pressure, much harder for him. So in
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: this case, Shador Sanders to me, was a much better
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: pairing with the Saints where potentially he had. It's a
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: better O line situation for him, especially in the middle
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: of that O line than some of these other choices.
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: The Giants O line I don't like one bit. You know,
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: I don't think I'm alone in that. The Raiders do
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: they have.
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: An interior O line.
• 18:52
  Speaker 4: I'm Jackson Powers Jones from last year could maybe take
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: a step forward. But again, I don't know. The run
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: game was non existing last year. I don't know if
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: Chip Kelly can fix that, but whatever. And you know,
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: point being is when he has a little bit more,
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: just a little bit more help, a field stretching wide
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: receiver situation, a number of them, and a good running back,
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: that is a great place for a rookie quarterback to land.
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: So I've told him, I'm like, listen, think about the
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: opportunity there. You have Alvin Kamara, Chris O love it
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: like you get some people to throw to. You go
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: to the Giants and the run game is not great.
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: You have a great Malik neighbors, sure, but other than that,
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: it's it's all you man.
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: Like go to a good situation.
• 19:34
  Speaker 4: So that was kind of how that worked out for
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: Shador because he doesn't have as many of the it's
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: not to say he can't do it, he just hasn't
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: had to, so I don't his resume is incomplete in
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: those marks that he doesn't have that. Cam Ward has
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: a little bit more of those marks to me, compared
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: to other people. He would have been maybe fourth or
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: fifth last year cam Ward would have been in terms
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: of quarterback rankings for me, and in prior seasons maybe
• 19:57
  Speaker 4: as high as third. He's first in and this one
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: that's great for him, good for him, Like scarcity is
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: is excellent for him.
• 20:05
  Speaker 5: He just his.
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: Resume is strangely incomplete as well. So to me, it's
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: not as much about it's just more projection for these
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: two top guys than it is actual seeing them do
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: the things that matter. And I think you now, in
• 20:18
  Speaker 4: this league, you must be able to throw hard with
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: velocity on the run, otherwise it's going to be really,
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: really hard for you to succeed.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Simon.
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say it's been interesting Chad talking all
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: the different scouts. Like from my perspective, mel Kiper talked
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: to the same scout I talked to on the Giants,
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: which is they're all in on Sanders. Apparently they love
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: this kid, they love his playing style. And then I'll
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: talk to you know, a Scott I of respect for
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: Arizona and he's joking me his ceiling for Sanders is
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: Gino Smith on Seattle right now. Like he's like to me,
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: he's a late first second round pick. And that's the
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: trouble with this draft class. It's just really heavy opinion
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: based and what you're looking for. Like cam Ward, he
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of guys view him as very smooth. The
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: way he plays his style that reminds them of a
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: less athletic Obviously he's still incredibly athletic, but a less
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: athletic Lamar like that confidence, that smooth, that flick of
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: the wrist downfield passing. That's what cam Ward is. He's
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: one of the better athletes I've seen come out and
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: I viewed as you know, the bump down he's getting
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: chat is if he's not he didn't play in the SEC.
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: He didn't play in the Big ten. Like that's a
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: real thing. When you talk to these NFL scouts now,
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: is it's all about what competition they are playing against.
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: We've seen it time and time again. These quarterbacks that
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: play in the ACC. They might be good, but you're
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: gonna see them come in and struggle.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: It's just that's just facts, like getting caught up to
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: the real NFL speed you're never going to see at
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: the ACC, and we've seen it now, Like you know,
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: I got caught with that. I was crazy high on
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence. We've seen Trevor Lawrence have some really tough
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: learning curve since coming out and it's been you know,
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: five years now, and he's never developed in what we expect.
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: So that, to me is what's working against cam Ward
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: right now, is that he doesn't he played against people
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: view as lesser of the end competition where Sanders either
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: love him or don't like. To me, what I'm hearing
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: from the Giants is they love the kid. They don't care,
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: like they don't care what people view them as with
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: the rankings, as like they're all in on this kid.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: They believe in them. They believe him as a leader
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: of men that's going to be their guy. So it's
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: me orter to see how it plays out these next
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: couple of months where it's like, if the Giants won them,
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: they might have go up and get them because other
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: teams when I have the same view as him, So
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: pretty wild that the Giants are in the third spot
• 22:24
  Speaker 3: are kind of dictating how that top of the draft
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: might go if they want to move up with Tennessee
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: and take who they believe in as Sanders at number one.
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: If I'm Joe Shane, if I'm Joe Shane, i am
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: telling everyone and their brother that I'm.
• 22:37
  Speaker 5: Taking Matthew Stafford.
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: Maybe it's a lie, but I'm I'm bluffing, or at
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: least potentially considering bluffing, because the truth is is I
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: feel like, for whatever reason, Giant scouts tell way too
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: much of the truth and everyone else are lying liars
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: who lie. So I need him to bluff for me
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: a lot more like I'm hoping to go to the
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: combine and hear nothing but Stafford to Giants. Stafford to Giants,
• 23:02
  Speaker 4: they need to give us, like stop telling.
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: Everybody who you want. Stop it.
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: You lose all your leverage and stop being so like, yeah,
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: just I want I don't want them to be bad.
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: One of my good friends played for the Giants a
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: million years ago, Matthias q Nuka, still one of my
• 23:15
  Speaker 4: best friends to this day. He won two Super Bowls
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: with them, and good lord like they it's just been like,
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: I want them, I don't want I want everyone to
• 23:23
  Speaker 4: be good. I'm a Lions fan, so of course any right, like,
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: but I'd like to see I'd like to see this
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: not be get telegraphed again this year.
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: I just feel like they're always telegraphed.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: You had a line in your mock for Travis Hunter.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: That's said, and then my question isn't okay you got
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: Travis Hunter going number one to the Titans. My question
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: is Travis Hunter comes off the board no later than
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: third overall in eighty one percent of one million simulations.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: One million simulations. Explain that to me.
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: So as of right now, you can what you can
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: do is you can take historical reference points for tennessee
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: the brain trust that's now in charge of them, with
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: kind of historical situations like this, you can you can
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: take off the free agencies, the free agents excuse me,
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: and then you can take all of the different ways
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: that this could play out from a trade standpoint as
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: of right now. Now, if somebody, if the Giants make
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: a move and telegraph that they're taking a quarterback right away,
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: it brings it down, but only to about seventy. So
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: right now he goes very very very very high. Like
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: it's kind of amazing how high him and Abdul Carter
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: are both projected to go for me based on just
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: what we what's known about free agency. And then of
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: course the LSU offensive tackle like that's going to be
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: a good one too, because this is a terrible oline class.
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: Like we think it's a weird we think it's a
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: weird quarterback class. It's a very light, very light offensive
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: lineman class. And so point being is that there's just
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: so many Travis Hunter is such a rare athlete, and
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: I actually think combine wise, later this week, maybe we'll
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: hear a little bit more about potentially him as a
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: wide receiver. I don't you know, I think we're here
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: a lot about corner, but he projects to be a
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: great wide receiver for me as well, like great, great,
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: like maybe even better than corner.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Like why if you're Travis Hunter. Why wouldn't you play
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: the position you're equally good at both. You're a potentially
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: once in a generation athlete, you just won the Heisman
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: as a essentially a two way player. Why wouldn't you
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: go to receiver like that? To me is where the
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: most money is.
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: It's no doubt where the most money is. But it's
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: possible that. I mean, he's playing for Dion, right, and like,
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: you know, potentially you see an idol.
• 25:54
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 25:54
  Speaker 4: I'm trying to understand it, but maybe it's I don't
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: know if it were me and that it's my client,
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: I'm like, you're playing wide receiver, my friend. That's a
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: corner he does you can't catch. That's what that's the common.
• 26:07
  Speaker 5: You know, I don't. I don't know.
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure why he wouldn't. I think he will,
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: That's I guess. My point is, I think that we'll
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: see a little bit more of that combine chatter. I
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: think that's one thing I expect to hear you.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: What will you look for when you get to the combine,
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: when someone like he was going to the combine, What
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: is the value of it for you?
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: Well, obviously you know from from a the drill standpoint,
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: it's a it's a gut check to see if all
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: of the stuff that we saw in field pans out.
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: So as long as you're within the proper ranges for
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: certain things that your position, check the box.
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: Who cares right?
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: Sometimes if someone runs really fast, we know it doesn't
• 26:48
  Speaker 4: really always translate to awesomeness, but if someone's out of
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: range slow, that's a reason to go back and double
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: check your work to see if what happened on the field,
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: if you're missing something right. Small school guys that fall
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: into ranges that are maybe better than you expected, that's
• 27:05
  Speaker 4: another place to look for potential. You know, day two
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: three steals. But the biggest benefit of being there is
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: going through the process and the interview part meaning can
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: you go through? Can you it's a rigorous process, like
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: you're poked, you're prodded, you're you know, these kids now
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: are millionaires before they're even there.
• 27:26
  Speaker 5: Used to be nice.
• 27:27
  Speaker 4: Now they're already millionaires and they're already whatever. So can
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: you go through this process and respect the ritual of it?
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: Because those scouts they work so freaking hard, they're gone
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: two hundred and fifty days a year, Like, can you
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: be nice, like, can you just be the person who's
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: a good teammate? Can you handle being nice to the
• 27:46
  Speaker 4: hotel staff? Can you are you not a jerk? Basically?
• 27:49
  Speaker 4: And how do those interviews go? And then for me specifically,
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: the other value is trying to kind of understand where
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: people's heads are at in terms of free agents and
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: of course if they're going to trade draft positions, what
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: they're really focusing on. And my personal favorite is kind
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: of who are there later round? Like who are the
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: guys of? Like I love this kid, blahlah blah blah,
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: who's going to be a late round steal? So it's
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: less about the on field stuff. That's just like a
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: check the box gut, like you is what you put
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: on the field?
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: Who you are?
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: Now? Did you respect the process of training and doing
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: all the things that are part of this, like whether
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: or not you think the NFL could be innovated and
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: you know, made more modern, which we all could find
• 28:32
  Speaker 4: ways to do that. You have to respect the process
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: of this. This is what these guys are, those hand
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: timer guys with the forties, like they'll never go away
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: even though we have way better ways to do it now.
• 28:42
  Speaker 4: It's part of the process. It's part of what people
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: love about it. The ritual of it matters. Can you
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: go through it and be that guy? Are you a
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: good teammate?
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: But how much access are you actually getting? Like how
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: much of this do you get extra access because you're
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: with NFL Network? Are you getting more time with players?
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: Like how much you can really glean from their personalities?
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: And how much of this is just shoe leather. You're
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: talking to the people helping with bags and at the
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: front desk and the servers and things like that.
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: Well, we've started doing We've turned the whole combine into
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: an event, so fans are now able to come watch.
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: And the good news about that is I get to
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: stand on the field and as they're done. I mean
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: it's a grueling day for me as well, you know,
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: six hours of keeping the fans excited. These are amazing fans,
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: by the way, Like the fact that they come out
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: the way that they do and show up just amazing.
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: But you know, getting to see how someone reacts when
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: they don't, like those little micro expressions when they don't
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: run the forty that they expected, or when they do
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: or when who's talking to whom? Who do the guys gravitate.
• 29:47
  Speaker 4: I get to stand right on the field with them.
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: So while it may not go into an implicit model
• 29:52
  Speaker 4: that I make, I do feel like I get a
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: good first hand sense of how these guys interact with
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: one another because being on the field with them, see
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: who needs a hug? You can see who's like, you know,
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: offering the hug to someone else, Like you know, the
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: who's who's the who's the the dude? You know that dude,
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: Like you can't model that. That's not that's not quantitative
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: at all, but the qualitative aspects, and you know, you
• 30:14
  Speaker 4: can see who's gravitating, Like all of the guys last
• 30:17
  Speaker 4: year loved Jade Daniel. They were like laughing all like
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: you can see who's having fun with who, who's alone
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: or who's not who's you know, it doesn't necessarily mean anything,
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: but it does help you feel like you understand them
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: a little bit better. And of course then there's you know,
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: the shoe leather part and talking to agents and trying
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: to get a good sense of you kind of know
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: who you know this too, Chad, like you know to Simon,
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: like who's the who, Who's like blowing smoke up your bump,
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: like and who's which agents are? Like my god, blah
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: blah blah, and you're like whatever, dude, Like okay, cool, right,
• 30:53
  Speaker 4: But yeah, it's a it's a it's a long week,
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: but it's it's my favorite week of the whole NFL season, Simon.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: As usual, I was pondering fifth century Greek philosophy earlier today,
• 31:05
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• 31:11
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• 31:15
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• 31:22
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  Speaker 1: favorites and get twenty five percent off your first order.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: Save twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash Favorites. I look forward
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: to next episode where we will go very deep on
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Marcus Aurelius and his writings. It's going to be super exciting. Uh, Simon,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: I think you wanted to ask Cynthia the next question.
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: Yes, it was interesting, Like when I found out we
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: were having you on as a guest. I don't listen
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: too many football shows during the season because I don't
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: want to be one of those people that people are like, oh,
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: you got your picks from this show where I even
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: start copying in your mannerisms, Like there's so many things
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: I already copy from people that you know, the stable
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: words that wouldn't even mean to right, it's it's brutal.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: So listen to your show.
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: I noticed Man versus Machine you tend to go with
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: the favorites more often than you go with betting dogs. Now,
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: is that unique to twenty twenty four because me and
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: Chad we got punished, Like we've talked at Nugema about it,
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: but we basically didn't adjust to last season where the
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: kickoff rules did change football. Right, We all can agree now,
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: especially after the season, that it made teams more willing
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: to go forward on fourth, you know, fourth down, even
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: from their own forty than we've ever seen in his
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: circle data looking back at the NFL. Is that so
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: was that unique to the last season or do you
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: always tend to go towards the favorites Because I know
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: professionals who you know, they might only bet thirteen fourteen
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: bets a total a year and they're all beyond favorites.
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: But you were doing three bets a weekend. So like
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: on me and chat Shore, we go dog kavy because
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: we have to bet five a weekend, which is fucking brutal.
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: You're in the same spot. You're having to bet three
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: every weekend. Is that easier for you to go more
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: favorite or do you just played as the model comes
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: to you, just play whatever is best showing best value
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: for you.
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: Well, we have to, so I actually put all my
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: picks out for everything, and then I put confidence levels
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: on anything so you can look at like you can
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: go through how confident I'm about favorite against the spread, totals, etc.
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: It was terrible on totals this year, just sort quick.
• 34:33
  Speaker 4: But this year favorites were you know, I got a
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: chance to do preseason with the Broncos and Sean Payton
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: is one of those coaches who really does a good
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: job of explaining how special teams can impact everything. So
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: it really did help in teaching my model. And I
• 34:52
  Speaker 4: say teaching like this because a lot of the things
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: that he said to look for, Like, I run a
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: model that's what's been historically right for eight seasons. Eight
• 35:00
  Speaker 4: seasons is about right, and then I look at what's
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: tracking this season, and then I look to see who's
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: I basically ask coaches what the heck's going on, and
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: then they help me understand what the D is. So
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: this year favorites happen to be better because of field position.
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: I mean, just in general, field position was a better
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: strategy for teams with better offenses, like it just worked
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: out better. Look at the Lions, especially when they lost everyone,
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: but you know, on their defense, so that was what happened.
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: I mean, a man versus machine. I'm just basically trying
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: to beat Greg. So I know what all of Greg's
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: positions are because we're on another show called gamed A
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: View together, so we see, I see everything he's gonna say,
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: and I just pick three to try to beat him.
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: So it's really not that one's really not that. One's
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: just like, really me trying to beat Greg. And you know,
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: we do good value picks. But because everything's out there
• 35:51
  Speaker 4: and everyone can you can see where I land on
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: all of it, then I feel like it's more fun
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: to try to kick Greg's But just just because you know,
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: I'm not competitive at all.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: You know. It's interesting you mentioned the Peyton stuff, and
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Simon and I have talked about the field position and
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: the kickoff rules and how we're going to think about
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: the kickoff rules and field position and fourth Town variants
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: and be more aggressive as we go forward in the
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: next season. What did Peyton explain to you you were
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: able to incorporate that maybe made you think differently going
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: into last season.
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: That this season people who are riskier on offense will
• 36:31
  Speaker 4: get paid off, and then going into next season it'll
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: probably it will reverse because defenses will catch up. So,
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: you know, teams like obviously you know the Lions were
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: fourth down team, the Eagles fourth down team, et cetera,
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: et cetera, like all of those teams you have to
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: He basically was like give he would say in his terms,
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: it's like give him a plus one, not one point,
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: like just he just means like, give them a little
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: bit of an advantage, right, so give them a plus one.
• 36:56
  Speaker 5: And it did tend to play out like that.
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: I guess you know, injuries of course impact how that's
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: kind of handled. But he was based, he was He
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: took me through this whole thing about you know, when
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: is the strategy like are you really going to give
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes someone he has to deal with, right?
• 37:11
  Speaker 5: Why are you really going to who cares?
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: Like why not go for it if you're on this
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: specific the yard line, right, Like, if you're gonna why
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: give make Patrick Mahomes go ninety freaking yards? Don't take
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: three points and you know, give him now only sixty
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: yards or whatever, sixty five yards even whatever, give him
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: make him go ninety because that changes the calculus. You
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: are more likely to get the ball back on a
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: favorable side for you, so then you could kick it
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: the second time, depending on how many times your possessions are,
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: Like every coach is a little bit different strategy with
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: how many possessions you should kick versus not. But give
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: make Patrick Mahomes go ninety yards. Just that's the That
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: was kind of the best way to summarize it, right,
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: make make if you're in the AFC West, specifically make
• 37:56
  Speaker 4: them go the whole way. Now, if you're playing the Raiders,
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: kick the field goal. But if you're playing but if
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: you're playing Justin Herbert, if you're playing Patrick Malmes, you're
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: gonna make them go ninety yards.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, It's like, Simon, why why did teams need an
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: offseason to adjust for this? Cynthia just said, like, it'll
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: be different this year because Will will figure it out.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Why can't they figure it out in the middle of
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: the season.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: They'll try to Chad.
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: But I think to what she's touching on a little
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: bit as well is that d NFL has just changed
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: so much. Chad, We're like, I not that I give
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: you shit about it, but there's a lot of fans
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: out there that missed the Payton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: Brees throwing over five thousand yards in a season.
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: D NFL has just gone away from that completely.
• 38:39
  Speaker 3: And we've seen the involvement of the running quarterback and
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: she even touched on it there where it's throwing her.
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: It's changed the game in so many different ways. The
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: biggest one to me is that these teams with young quarterbacks,
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: they will go from a fourth down Bo Knicks took
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: that Denver team to the playoffs?
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: Why fourth down success rate? Washington?
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: If you go back and look at their numbers, they
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: would never have made the playoffs if they weren't so
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: high variants on going for it on fourth down once again,
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: a young running quarterback.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: So that's also something I've thrown into my model and.
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: We've talked about where it's like the game has changed.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: It's no longer if it's fourth and three automatic punt, right,
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: if it's I mean, teams on fourth and five are
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: going for it now because of the high variance of
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: what you just talked about. It it's like, do you want
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: to make them drive ninety or do you want to
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: kick a three here and make mahomes go sixty sixty
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: five yards where it's like you're already dead. So that's
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: also something where in the middle of the season chat,
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: I think they did try to adjust it, but it
• 39:35
  Speaker 3: didn't matter, right because we saw Jamie Daniels still was
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: going seven of eight on fourth down and back to
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: back games like just the craziest high variance because these
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: teams couldn't stop that QB run pass option because he's
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: young quarterbacks so athletics. So that's also part of it, brother,
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: where it's like it's not just a drop back guy
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: where you know, if you can get your four guys
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: head of steam, you know they're gonna be dropping back
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: around fourth and four to run it. I mean even
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: the Eagles would run it on you know, already in
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: seven thirty and eight with Saquon just to get in
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: a fourth and three position. So we've just seen the
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: game has evolved and changed so much now with the
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: way defenses play that you know, these running quarterbacks, I mean,
• 40:10
  Speaker 3: it's been a major shift. Like a gay we talked
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: to the very top. You know, Dart is a good quarterback.
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: He's a pocket passer ten years ago, Chad, he's probably
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: a top five, top ten pick right now. You know,
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: he's probably gonna be back towards the end of the
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: first round just because he's not this young stud athlete.
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: So yeah, the NFL, the way it's evolved, it's just
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: totally different now where you know, fourth and three it's
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: the same as being third and one or third and two.
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: Like that's how these coaches kind of view it right now.
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: And like we and you talked about, we tried to
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: adjust it. I mean, obviously it worked out much better
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: for us. We did pretty well in the playoffs, so
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: we did catch up to it. But it really was
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: heavy favorites, like the That's that's what me and you
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: talked about all year. It was that we couldn't adjust
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: to the favorites. It was just so overwhelming. What was
• 40:55
  Speaker 3: seventy five percent after Week eleven, Chad, that the favorites covered?
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, you can't adjust to that. We bet dog.
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: So for me and you personally, that was brutal. But
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: I would say to the NFL, they're gonna be make adjustments.
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: What those justices are.
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: I don't know yet, because to me, it's how do
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: you stop these running quarterbacks they're I mean, you can
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: say the Eagles are one of the best defensive football.
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: Jane Daniels was basically having his way with that defense
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: in the playoffs. Like his teammates failed him, not Jane Daniels.
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: So the new NFL, man, it's tough, like these these weapons,
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, the everyone's copying Lamar style. It's totally changing
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: the game. And we just saw Jalen Hurts. You know,
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: he set the record for seventy rushing yards in the
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl two years ago. He broke it this past year,
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: growing for seventy two. Like we're living in the moment
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: of an involved quarterback position. It's all about can your
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: model adjust to it? And Sam goes for the NFL,
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: can these head coaches adjust to it? Which I can't wait.
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, we just.
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: Saw all these guys, all these guys talking about like
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: she says she's going to the combine, She's gonna hear
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: so much conversation about the Zach thing we're talking about,
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: Like I can only imagine every guy in the bars
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: having drinks. They're saying, how the fuck do we stop
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: these guys? Like, how do we stop Jane Daniels in
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: the future, because that's that to me, that's the biggest
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: question mark right now is how do you stop this
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: new rushing West Coast offense these quarterbacks play.
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: So I have a stat for you that's actually really interesting.
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: Just as a there are some imperfections. I'm not putting
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: to pretend rushing yards over expected or expecting rush yards
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: is perfect, I'm not. But directionally I think it is
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: actually quite telling a running back their baseline. Let's just
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: you know, let's just say it's adjusted by routes, so
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: inside and outside are are taken separately. However, an expected
• 42:36
  Speaker 4: gain for a running back on any early down, first
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: or second down is four point two yards. So that's
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: an expected gain on a running back, right for a
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: running back. For a quarterback on any down, including third down,
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: it's six yards. So that's exactly what you're saying. So
• 42:50
  Speaker 4: at four point two versus six, that's a massively different
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: value proposition than we've seen in the past.
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: So that's the first thing.
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: The second thing is the good news for people who
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: love defense, of which I am one of them. If
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: I could play any position, I would be Brian Branch.
• 43:07
  Speaker 4: I would be a really big badass safety. That would
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: be my that's my that's my spirit animal right there.
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: But Chancellor, exactly, I want to like, that's what I
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: want to do right like that.
• 43:18
  Speaker 5: It's so not my personality.
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: I'm such a whim but in my head, that's what
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: I that's what I that's what I'm manifesting or whatever.
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: But this is a great defensive front class. So the
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: D line here, there's a lot of good defensive tackles.
• 43:32
  Speaker 4: There's a lot of good rushers. I'm not going to
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: just say edge because they're not coming from the edge.
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: And now that we've seen I think, you know, the
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: pendulum will swing.
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: Back and forth. Right.
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: We will see We've seen people run duo, which is
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: you know what your high school does, like just running
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: right up through the center.
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: That was it's kind of coming back.
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: So while the quarterback position feels like, you know, we
• 43:53
  Speaker 4: have to evolve really a lot, they are also getting
• 43:57
  Speaker 4: paid more so potentially we're asking them to do to
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: maybe that's part of it. But I think we will
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: see some pocket passing. If you can get the right
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: line and you can get the right receivers, that could
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: be a good way to do it. Joe Burrow I
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: know he can run, but Joe Burrow to me, is
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a It's weird to call him
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: a throwback, but he feels a little bit more like
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: a throwback given the state of the NFL right now.
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: If the difference, if he doesn't get Jamar and Tea back,
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: it's going to be crazy so or something that level.
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: So point bing is, I think we will see the shift.
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: The pendulum will shift back a little bit, and maybe
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: it starts with some of these guys in this defensive
• 44:33
  Speaker 4: class living up to expectations.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: Have you, guys, either of you already started thinking about
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: your models for next year, how you'll make adjustments and
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: what specifically are you researching That is new, Cynthia, you're
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: shaking your head.
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: Off Ball linebackers have been before.
• 44:58
  Speaker 4: It was like Fred Warner and that's it, Like, I mean,
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: there was a few more, but off ball linebackers to
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: me are the They're really hard for non football, Like
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: you can see what a wide receiver does, like I
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: know what the running backs supposed to do. I'm pretty
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: sure I know what the quarterback is supposed to do too,
• 45:14
  Speaker 4: maybe not on each play, but just in general. I
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: don't know where Fred Warner is supposed to be in
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: specific play, I don't know where Jack Campbell is supposed
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: to be.
• 45:22
  Speaker 5: I don't know where.
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: Oh, I don't know a certain Eagles player who's probably
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: gonna get paid a lot of money and made a
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: huge difference for that defense. So to me, a lot
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: of the a lot of the kind of the way
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: that no one's playing based defense anymore.
• 45:37
  Speaker 5: Who's playing with?
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: How many defensive backs, A lot of nickel, a lot
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: of dime, all these different I'm very curious to see
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: where the advantages lie. Like, I think the Colts will
• 45:47
  Speaker 4: be a much better defense this year getting lou An
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: Arumo there, and I think that will then impact how
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: we view all of these different So I'm taking I'm
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: taking it from the center of the defense and projecting
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: it backwards as my new flare the year. Again, I
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: have all my other models, but I'm starting with kind
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: of what is the middle who what is the you know,
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: center fielder of the defense doing, and then trying to
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: figure out if that is a different way I could
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: look at it that would be more strategic this year,
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: given that I do believe the premise that defenses will
• 46:17
  Speaker 4: have an advantage in the season after offensive having such
• 46:20
  Speaker 4: a big one last year.
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: How about you, samon.
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: Uh, It's tough because right now, like I did make
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: adjustments that in the playoffs, and I mean, my model it.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: Was a dream and it's ten to zero to one
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: end the season. I'm model on side, so like, hell, yes,
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: better than that, brother.
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: So I'm basically you can't in a spot where I'll
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: basically just wait, you know this, this is another part
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: of our lives, this part of the season. It's just
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: it's all draft right now. Then I'll get into the
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: futures market and then you know it is she had
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: they released that Week one schedule and I'll dive into that,
• 46:52
  Speaker 3: but really I need to basically do what Cynthia is
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: talking about. It's like I need to talk to different scouts,
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: different guys on coaching staffs, trust and rely on, and
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: they'll give me the info about what these teams are
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: gonna try to adjust for. But that, honestly, brother, won't
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: be until July August. Like that's really when the good
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: stuff starts coming out, because these guys have been working
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: at all winter, just stuck in their homes, on their
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: couches and just grinding tape. And trying to figure out
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: how to do it, and then with excitement themselves, they
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: can't help themselves. They'll leak me the information come July
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: and August just because they want to be viewed as
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: the smartest guy in the room. And I'm more than
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: happy to sit there and not say wording and just
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: listen and take it all in. So I don't really
• 47:30
  Speaker 3: have a good answer for it right now, but I
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: definitely know that there is gonna be some major adjustments
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: coming just because we saw for the first time it
• 47:37
  Speaker 3: feels like ten to fifteen years the rebirth of the
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: running back. We saw that really change football this season.
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: And the best teams. I mean, we throw the Chiefs
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: out because they don't make sense in any way, but
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: the Ravens.
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: The Bills, the Eagles, the.
• 47:51
  Speaker 3: Lions, they all had really amazing run games and that
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: would to me was what set them apart from all
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: these other teams why they were all so dominant the
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: regular season this year. So that's something I really can't
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: wait to dive into this offseason, is what was that adjustment?
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: Was it simply because of the too high safety? Here?
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: Is there more I'm not read into it about why
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: the running back has had such a rebirth these last
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: couple of years, where this year, I mean, you can't lie.
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: It dictated this entire season. Saquan com from the Giants
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: to the Eagles changed this entire season. So I really
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: cannot wait to dive into it because it's it's crazy
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: how the running back has come back such with vengeance
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: at this point where I mean it was left for
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: dead n even three four years ago. I mean people
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: just completely poop poo the running back position. I love
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: that it's really back now, So I really can't wait
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: to dive into that.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: Look, everybody wants to be the smartest person in the room.
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• 50:01
  Speaker 1: code Favorites. Let's do a quick awards section of questions, right,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Cynthia on Numbers Game, you just did a huge award ceremony.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Can you explain by the way Numbers Game? Go to
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: the website, Go to the YouTube channel. This was on
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: last week. Last week's episode, you gave out some awards.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: Explain the offensive SOS Award and tell our audience who
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: won it.
• 50:37
  Speaker 5: Well.
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: First of all, I wanted to do awards. I did
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: two things with the awards. Number one, I wanted to
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: do some awards for people who weren't necessarily you know,
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: like there was a lot of questions about who should
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: be the MVP. It felt like this big compromise between
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: like MVP Offensive Player of the Year and then like,
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: well Lamar won it twice, we're just gonna be Like
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: I felt like there was some sort of like I
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: don't know, like we you with your kids, it's like,
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: well you got you got this treat, so now you
• 51:07
  Speaker 4: get this like it's your turn this time, and you
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: know whatever. So I wanted to try to like do
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: it with completely just math. And then I also thought
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: that there should be some different awards. For example, I
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: thought that there should be an O Line Award. I
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: thought that there should be like, you know, Who's helping
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: who this SOS Award like save our Ship, Like you know,
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: like who who is like really help helping out maybe
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: even more than we anticipated them. And brock Bauers, who obviously,
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: you know, not only did he set rookie receiving yards records,
• 51:38
  Speaker 4: breaking Mike Ditkah's record for yards, but also receptions, breaking
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: Puka Nukua's rookie reception right, but but he was if
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: you look at if you draw circle so us computer vision,
• 51:49
  Speaker 4: I draw circle around like where he was even targeted.
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: The man is like those frisbee dogs, like going back
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: to catch balls that he has no business catching. So this,
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: you know, he's also like very quiet, very humble, like
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: a he's a good kid, Like I'm I'm excited to
• 52:07
  Speaker 4: see him going forward. But he had no business even
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: catching half of the balls that were thrown his way.
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: They were not good passes. I'm not being mean, they
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: just weren't. And that was to me. I think that's
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: like a really interesting unsung award because every year we
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: can always think of a guy who, maybe on a
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: different team, really would have had an opportunity to in
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: his case, maybe rookie of the Rookie Offensive Player of
• 52:31
  Speaker 4: the Year, but even even just in general, just one
• 52:34
  Speaker 4: of those things, like just something to recognize he really
• 52:39
  Speaker 4: the interior line terrible. There was no run game to
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: speak of. The quarterback position was a little bit of
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: a turnstyle. It was not a good situation. And say
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: for a few pieces of their defensive front, their defense
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: didn't you know, Max Crosby's awesome, but you know, the
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: defense didn't really help them out either. So you know,
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: Black Bauers made that whole freaking team go. So that
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: was I felt like we needed to just give a
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: guy an award who's not maybe on a playoff team
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: or a team that has a lot of staying power
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: in the season, but he really helped out even more
• 53:10
  Speaker 4: than we expected.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: Well look, he was a totally boler totally phenomenal, totally phenomenal.
• 53:16
  Speaker 3: I was trying to think of who do we not
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: give enough flowers to this season, and I feel like
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: she nailed it with the brock Bowers pick like he was.
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: He did so much for a team that just give
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: you gave back so little. I'm gonna go with our boy,
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: Chad Bryce Young, like this kid got benched, he was
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: left for dead and was it like a car accident
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: and he Dolton like he got his starting job back
• 53:37
  Speaker 3: in the weirdest way and he took it and he
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: ran with it like they of all the teams. I
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: think back this past season, obviously the Bucks beat the Eagles.
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: That Panthers team should have beat this Eagles team, and
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: that was like no excuse. Eagles had all their starters
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: and Bryce Shawn played out of his mind.
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: And I know me and you Chad.
• 53:55
  Speaker 3: He saved our ass, Like, we love this kid, and
• 53:57
  Speaker 3: we looked like fools for about a weeks. He came
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: back with vengeance stem the season for us, and I'm
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: just happy to be stuck to it.
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: So for my guys, it's gotta be Bryce.
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: Seawan just totally turn it around and just shows how
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: important the mental health is of a player in football.
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: Like he had all the tools, he had the skill,
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: he just didn't have it mentally and whatever happened just
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: watching it from the bench totally reramped his mind and
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: he came out there and played like a true leader.
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Bryce Young will deserves in my mind of
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: unward this season.
• 54:27
  Speaker 4: A guy got a chance to meet him at the
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: super Bowl and we did a panel and it was
• 54:31
  Speaker 4: Joe Eisman, him and Kevin O'Connell, and I was like,
• 54:34
  Speaker 4: when I'm hosting, Hi'm like, oh, I'm gonna have to.
• 54:36
  Speaker 5: Like what am I gonna do to like get him involved?
• 54:39
  Speaker 5: Like how am I gonna?
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: You know, I wasn't expecting him this Bryce Young on
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: it like just so like I was so impressed by
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: him and his like just his presence and you know,
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: because joke Thaisman's a talker. He's got his bits, you know,
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: we're like all the veteran players have. And Bryce was
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: just fitting right, like it was awesome. So I he really,
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: he really impressed me greatly in person, his knowledge of
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: the game, his passion for it. Like I not to
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: say I wasn't expecting it, but you know, you get
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: some of these young players and they have variable seasons
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: and they get a little in their feelings. No, no,
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: he was like boom, like he was awesome. I'm such
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: a fan.
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: Right before you get out of here, Like we started
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: the show, you have put out a mock draft. You're
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: going to the combine. You do this every single year.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: Let's do mock the mock, praise the mock. Tell us
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: the picks and predictions over the years that you should
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: be mocked for and which ones you should be praised for.
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: Start start with the mock.
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: Okay, god, there's like a billion number one my model.
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: Oh even like last year, last year, I the Jadeen
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: Daniels one is one that I will that I will
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: stand by because that was a good one. But there
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: was about fifty other ones in now and that I'm like,
• 56:00
  Speaker 4: these kids are they're like out of the League already.
• 56:03
  Speaker 4: So I'm trying to think of my my best mock
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: the mock, and I don't want to be mean because
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: I always feel like mean saying it. But I there's
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: a there is a certain quarterback that, uh.
• 56:17
  Speaker 5: That my model really liked.
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: He's a nice person, but he didn't do so great
• 56:23
  Speaker 4: for your team.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: No, but that.
• 56:29
  Speaker 5: I love though.
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: The journey.
• 56:35
  Speaker 5: I'm talking about Truebisky. I'm not talking about Caleb.
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: I'm talking about my model was like in in three times,
• 56:42
  Speaker 4: in four times.
• 56:42
  Speaker 5: And you know who else? I was in on Justin Fields.
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: I you know again, Justin Fields came up early half
• 56:48
  Speaker 4: for me, and I feel bad. I feel mean, I'm
• 56:50
  Speaker 4: like picking on the Bears, but I still like Justin
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: Field's I still like Mitch as humans. Mis Trubisky is
• 56:56
  Speaker 4: awesome and Justin like they all are. But you know,
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: I it just the mock was a lot higher.
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: On them than maybe it should have been.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Listen, as I will do three times a year, I'll
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: remind everybody the Bears traded up. They traded up in
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: that draft from three to two. They were so anxious
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: someone was going to take Mitch Trubisky. They traded up
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: to get Mitch True Busky, I got fleet.
• 57:22
  Speaker 5: They got a little fleeced there, I think.
• 57:23
  Speaker 4: And.
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: Just not even think about Patrick Mahomes. Yep, how can
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: we praise you? All right? So Mitch truebisky that is
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: you deserve your mock for that one. How can we
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: praise you? Before we go?
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: Jan Daniels, I had he was my number one and
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: over and look, I like, I liked Caleb Williams too,
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: just to be clear, like I didn't have him as
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: being so vastly different, but my stuff said that he'd
• 57:49
  Speaker 4: have a better first season by a lot, mostly because
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: of the potential for the running and the throwing on
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: the run.
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: And it just happened to be right. So that was
• 57:59
  Speaker 5: we liked.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: When it works out, we do, we do, and that
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: was a good call, all right. Cynthia frielin to go
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: into the combine for NFL Network. Everyone should watch Slash
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: listen to numbers game. Amazing stuff. That story about your grandfather, yes,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: is classic and so apro po for this audience, So
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: way to save it, Way to save it for the show.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: As a reminder dropping things here, Yeah, that's right, as
• 58:25
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  Speaker 1: return with our next episode of the Favorit's one of
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: my favorites of the year on the Action Network YouTube
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: page on Thursday, eleven am Eastern for our Annual Academy
• 59:17
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