Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | February 10, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | February 10, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:05
All system's going, clear the lifto what's going on? Everybody happy Wednesday Wednesday
0:40
talking fights not usual of course, but this week Waste Management ship and Nation
0:45
crew will be in Phoenix, so Big Marley find out tomorrow morning a lot
0:49
of people flying out, so we're doing the show Wednesday today instead of Friday.
0:54
Of course, all of our content will be up if anything changes in
0:59
Discord like a Saturday. If some fight gets canceled, we'll go in Discord
1:03
give updates that way. But everything fight, rankings, projections, ownership will
1:07
be on the site like always. I will say too off the get go.
1:11
Next week probably will be the same time. I'll be heading to calim
1:17
man Rio USC two ninety eight, both to Poria anaheive I will be there.
1:23
So it's gonna be another very busy weekend. Trying to have stuff up
1:26
a little earlier. Big Marley bring you in. Very excited to see you
1:30
man, probably about twenty four hours now. A might PC and yeah,
1:33
how's your day going? Thoughts on this card? What's going on in your
1:36
world? Yeah, good man, it's been a busy day, but I'm
1:40
excited to get out there Phoenix, go to that crazy Waste Management Phoenix Open.
1:45
I've been watching videos. I'm not a huge golf fan, you know,
1:48
in and on and off, I'll watch some golf and play some dfs
1:51
here and there, but I've never been to a PGA event, and I
1:53
heard that this is the one to go to. So I've been watching like
1:56
everything on YouTube and now I'm even more pumped up, looking forward to see
2:00
you guys all out there and hopefully we'll we'll all cash together Saturday night after
2:05
catching on hopefully some golf bets as well. Yeah. Absolutely, no,
2:08
it's a good time. I will say, I'm not the biggest golf person.
2:12
There's just a billion people and like it's golf, so even finding us
2:15
about to watch some shots, it's here and there one strings God down though,
2:19
you forget about golf. You try and enjoy the nice weather. We'll
2:23
see about that. Still cloudy right now, not the best, but it'll
2:24
be a great time, no doubt. It's excited to see all the ship
2:29
and crew. And again, if you're any member out there and you live
2:31
in the Phoenix area anywhere in Arizona and you want to come out, we
2:36
have an itinerary going discord Friday night. We got some golf, kind of
2:39
like a top top golf thing that we're doing. I think we have rented
2:44
out like eight to eleven Saturday, we'll be at the casino, so we
2:47
do have stuff. If any members are around in the area want to hang
2:51
out, going to discord, message me, message Tambo. We will all
2:55
get together. It'll be a great time out here. No doubt about that
3:00
big week in Super Bowl Sunday. Of course we'll have content for that.
3:02
I'm a may this week and goulf going on that lox tomorrow. Check out
3:07
the show from Hoop and Tambo. Check out everything on the site. NBA
3:10
going on big Slight there, Me and Rio will be talking hoops in two
3:15
and a half hours. Bro let's lay overviews at MMA before we go fight
3:20
by fight. Right now, we have fourteen fights fingers crossed. I mean,
3:24
if I had a bet right now, I would say we probably lose
3:28
one like usual. Hey, even if we have thirteen fights would be great.
3:30
Though similar to last week, I think in a lot of ways more
3:35
fights than twelve, which is kind of rare nowadays. Only one favorite above
3:38
minus three hundred, so I expect plenty of dogs to be barking again.
3:43
I have a strong lean in the main event much I like to see.
3:46
But man, I feel pretty solid about this card right now because there's plenty
3:50
of fights we're gonna get to that. I'm like, I don't love this
3:52
fight, and we'll get to plenty of fights. I'm like, I love
3:54
this fight, and we'll go both ways. So you can always leave money
3:58
on the table, can fade the main event. Of course, the more
4:00
fights, the easier to do that. With any broad slide overviews though,
4:04
the top tier is some of the last week as well. I think in
4:08
a lot of no name top tier fighters, but they do have passed a
4:12
lot of them two solid scores, So that's my broad slade overview overview,
4:15
what you got. Yeah, I'm I'm kind of excited for this card.
4:19
I just think that there's lots of ways to go. I do think that
4:23
the main event will soak up a lot of ownership, but other than that,
4:26
I don't see any plays that I think are gonna be overly chalky.
4:30
I think there's a lot of underdogs that are alive, a lot of underdogs
4:31
that have decent ceilings as well, so I'm excited for it. I haven't
4:35
really made too many lineups, And I also don't know how many I'm gonna
4:39
make. How many you make it? Man, we're gonna be out on
4:41
that golf course happens, We're not really gonna be able to change a lot
4:46
if something. Yeah, if something happens, we'd be screwed. So probably
4:49
for that reason, not many or in that way. And yeah, I
4:54
mean we'll see like we have stopped playing all Thursday night Friday Saturday, we'll
4:59
see lineups I get to because yeah, one fight thing is I don't expect
5:03
Friday night, like we'll pretty much see how much time I have Saturday morning,
5:06
probably to build teams is how I see it, because I feel good
5:10
after Friday when the weight misses and all that happen. If fights are canceled
5:14
there. If a fight gets canceled Saturday, so be it. Probably I'm
5:17
try and like late swap. But yeah, to be honest, I don't
5:19
know how many lineups, probably not as many as usual. Yeah, think
5:24
Tony just hand build them this week and then if something happens, just like
5:29
a global player swap right before. I don't know, we'll see, but
5:31
hopefully that does not happen and we get all these fights taking place. Yeah,
5:35
let's hope. So for sure we already had We'll get to it.
5:39
But uh blagi Oki. You was supposed to fight has Avich has Avich out.
5:43
We already got a short notice replacement, so we'll get to that.
5:45
So fourteen right now we will go bottom to top like always again, this
5:48
is on Wednesday, like how we see the fight doesn't really change. I'm
5:54
still a couple more fights. I want to dive into a little more.
5:57
I also want to see lines on some fights, like the Oki fight.
6:00
We now don't have a new line DraftKings still doesn't have I think two fights.
6:04
We don't have prices on some guys. So still some things that change.
6:08
Everything will be on the site finalized like always by Friday, though.
6:12
First fight of the night Daniel Marcos to Reach You Long ninety three hundred,
6:15
Marco sixty nine hundred to Reach You Long. Marco's coming in one of the
6:19
bigger favorites at minus two fifty Reach You Long plus two to ten on the
6:24
way back this fight plus one to twenty to finish Marcos plus two to twenty
6:29
inside the distance Reach You Long plus three sixty five. This is one of
6:33
the fights to start it off where I really don't love it too much.
6:38
Two primary strikers fights favored to end or favor to go the distance. I
6:43
think Marcos is the better, more technical, can mix in the leged kicks.
6:47
Probably the minute winner reach you long does have power if he lands.
6:50
I think this fight though, probably goes a decision, And if it does
6:54
go to decision, I don't think we'll want much exposure. I don't see
6:58
much wrestling starting off the night with the underweight or fade fight. For me,
7:02
how do you see it? Yeah? I pretty much agree. I
7:06
think if it does go to a decision, then it's it's a Ricci Lang
7:10
that we would want in our lineups, because if a Richi langs to win
7:14
this fight, I think he's gonna have to do a lot with his wrestling.
7:16
Land a few takedowns, keep top control time long enough for the judges
7:20
to like it, or land some really big shots, and I would say
7:24
those would be his edges in the fight would be he's a better offensive wrestler.
7:27
I don't see Marcos looking for any takedowns here, and I also think
7:30
that Richi Lang has more one shot power. I do think Marcos, you
7:34
know, could just kind of piece him up on the feet and just land
7:36
so much volume that he ends up putting them away. But if one of
7:40
these guys gonna land one punch and knock the other guy out, I feel
7:42
like it's a Ricci Lang. So sixty nine hundred dollars, my preferred play
7:46
is gonna be the underdog in a Ricci Lang because I'm confident he gets over
7:49
ten x in a win, but he also has like ninety plus one hundred
7:54
point upside at that price. Whereas Marcos, if he wins a decision,
7:59
I feel like he is going to score closer to seventy points, which is
8:03
not going to cut it. And his inside the distance line is like plus
8:07
two twenty five or something, maybe worse than that plus two twenty So that's
8:13
not great at his price for ninety three hundred, especially with the guy who's
8:18
not gonna be landing takedowns throughout three rounds. So Marcos is going to be
8:22
more of a I mean, maybe with ten lineups I do end up fading
8:26
them, But if I was making one hundred and fifty, I would want
8:28
some Marcos lineups because Richi Lang is aggressive, and I think that aggressiveness could
8:31
help Marcos and end up getting a TKO, but it is kind of TKO
8:35
or bust. I think for Marcos in this in this fight, and I'd
8:37
rather pay up for other spots. So I would say, yeah, underweight
8:41
tag to Marcos, closer to Fade than overweight. And then Rici Lang.
8:46
I don't see him getting too much ownership, so I'd be fine getting a
8:50
little bit of leverage to him. Yeah, we see it the same way.
8:54
So there's a couple fights I'm still debating on how I want to take
8:56
all of my guys. Like there's three fights mainly that I've been debating,
9:01
like underweight, Fades and Ben mixing and matching them. This is one of
9:05
them. We'll get to this next fight is one of them, and then
9:07
Dan Egay, Andre Feely. Those are all three of those fights I look
9:11
at pretty similar. Slightly favor to go the distance all primary strikers, and
9:16
if you tell me all of them go fifteen minutes, I probably don't want
9:20
all of them. That's how I see it. So when we get to
9:24
there, I'll probably in the next fight, I'll bring it up free to
9:26
rank those fight or those fighters or those your rank those fights in terms of
9:30
your favorite to your least favorite. But I agree in this one right now
9:33
I have in a fade. I do like reach you long more than Daniel
9:35
Marcos though with the twenty four hundred and savings, and I do think he
9:39
has more one shot power too. He can clip Marcos. I just think
9:43
if it goes a decision, it probably is Marcos winning that as a better
9:46
technical fighter. But not much interest, not much love. In the first
9:50
fight of the card. Forgot to say hi to some people. Ben's always
9:54
in here. What's going on? Ben, Shaun Smith, Mark, a
9:58
lot of familiar faces, Whaler and here as well, talking oh for six
10:01
last week? Hey, sometimes it goes like that and I will say oh
10:05
for six or three for three. Usually you're still getting zero dollars back.
10:07
So if you ain't first her last, that's all right. Always can get
10:11
them back this week. Mark in here, John Kelly in here as well.
10:15
What's going on? John Hope. Y'all out there having a great day.
10:18
We appreciate that like button, Appreciate that subscribe button as always, keep
10:22
it rolling. Next fight on the card, hyder A Mill taking on Fernando
10:26
Garcia. Fernie Garcia. We got a meal minus one ninety Fernie Garcia plus
10:31
one sixty five on the way back, this fight's plus one fifty to finish
10:37
looking at the finish or the inside of the distance props A Meal plus two
10:41
sixty five Fernie Garcia plus three sep seventy five. So I guess I'll just
10:46
throw it to you because I kind of tip my hand early. I Peelly
10:50
Egay, a Meal, Garcia and then Marcos to rich you long rank them
10:54
in terms of your favorite fights to target to your least. But I see
10:58
this fight similar to that last one, like two primary strikers. Fernie Garcia
11:03
never been finished. I mean, he's very tough oer with three in the
11:05
UFC. I'm taking the Meal because for any just might be cheeks, but
11:11
he's tough. I'm not sure a Meal's very good, like it feels like
11:15
a minus one nine year plus one sixty five. I'm taking the dog money.
11:18
So I don't know to rank those three favorite fights either way, though
11:22
I like other fights on this card a lot more than this one. I'm
11:26
just trying to get those three mainly done with my underweight and Fade takes Man.
11:31
Yeah, I'd say they're all super similar fights. I don't have a
11:35
lot of interest in any of them, and I've kind of been going back
11:39
and forth between two star and three star on the fight rankings. I don't
11:41
really have star that I have in mind yet. They all started at three,
11:46
and I think they're all moved down to two by now. Yeah,
11:48
so I do think they're really similar. I don't have any strong feelings on
11:52
the rankings, but I would say that my favorite would be Egay Feeley more
12:00
so because of the underdog side. I'm picking Pheelly to win. Spoiler alert.
12:03
No, just let's say fighter. Then if you just have like a
12:05
of those six fighters, if you have like two or three, like a
12:09
Ricci Log, Yeah, okay, yeah, my favor will be underdogs.
12:11
We go Pheelly and then a Ricci Lang. Actually, so both underdogs.
12:16
A Riachi Lang more of a guy. I think that could break the slate,
12:20
whereas Phey, I think I'm playing for like eighty five points hopefully and
12:24
he can get their type thing. But also Pheeley's a lot more likely to
12:28
get his hand raised. Yeah all that all that makes a ton of sense
12:31
to me. Yeah, break down, break down this fight for us.
12:35
Either way, I don't like the three fights. You don't like three the
12:37
three fights, and if we keep all fourteen, I'll be playing a lot
12:41
of the other fights more as a story of the story of the day for
12:43
me. Yeah, and I don't like these first two fights because I'm picking
12:46
the favorites to win. But I don't really love the price tags. Well
12:50
I don't. We don't have a price tag on a mill yet, but
12:52
I expect him to be up there near the nine K range and I and
12:58
I think he's gonna win just by being a better version of Fernie. I
13:01
think he's the guy that has more power. He's the guy that's gonna be
13:05
pushing forward, setting the pace in this fight. He's he could be taken
13:09
down, but I expect most of this fight to take place on the feet.
13:13
And if we don't get a knockout in Vegas, doesn't think that we
13:16
will. I don't think that we're gonna get a really high score in this
13:18
one because neither guy are heavy offensive wrestlers, and a Meal can put up
13:26
decent, decent volume, but I just don't know that it'll put up enough
13:31
in the decision for it to really matter, especially if he's not going for
13:33
takedown, So a fight I don't really care as much for, but I
13:37
would probably rather have a Meal for cheaper than Marcos. Personally, I think
13:43
this fight will probably be slit in so while we're waiting on this in the
13:48
breecheck fight later to get pricing, we have eighty eight hundred open and eighty
13:52
seven hundred open, so I think that's where these two fights will go.
13:56
I guess is this fight will be eighty seven hundred and seven five hundred for
14:03
a meal. Yeah, I agree. Yeah, so I would rather pay
14:05
eighty seven than ninety three for Marcos. But at the same time, I
14:09
think there's other payoffs that I would really rather just put my my stamp on
14:15
than these guys. Yeah. No, that's all I'm saying it too.
14:18
If it is eighty seven seventy five, I would definitely prefer the six hundred
14:22
saving from a meal to Marcos. I still, like I said, if
14:26
this fight's favor to go the distance. If it does, I don't think
14:28
it's gonna be optimal. I trust Fernie being tough. I think it mainly.
14:31
Do you think a Meal wrestles at all? Like Fernie's been taking down
14:35
two, three, four times and it's through UFC fights. But like Brady
14:39
Heastan Emil looks to me is a primary striker. Brady eastand Journey Newsan,
14:45
they shoot for more takedowns. I don't know. I guess if I was
14:48
setting a line for takedowns, would maybe give them one. I don't even
14:54
I feel like one and a half would be too much, and maybe I
14:56
feel like it's closer to the half than one and a half. So yeah,
15:00
I don't expect too many takes. Probably said at one as my guess.
15:03
Prize packs an Underdog if you do guys out there, do you want
15:05
to look at props sometimes those two sites, I don't look at it too
15:09
much. I mean, there's still a lot of variants that don't take nearly
15:13
as much money as like lines in Vegas and stuff, So it's not as
15:16
it's still a little inefficient. But if you do want any line, Underdog
15:20
and prize picks do take some line, So I would take some money on
15:24
the line, So I guess you can look at props there, and then
15:28
I would say on the other end, I'm I have the least interest in
15:31
Fernie compared to Arici Lang and Phey. Of course, so he might end
15:35
up being a fad for me, especially with limited lineups, that makes sense.
15:41
Yeah, if it is eighty seven to seventy five, see, I
15:45
don't We'll get to the Pheelly fight and Ega there too. I just don't
15:48
love Egay never gets knocked out. I think his takedown defense probably holds up.
15:52
I wrote in the thing like it feels like you're I'm playing for a
15:54
decision win, which will be seventy eighty. We'll get to that fight later.
16:00
Yeah, these three fights in general, the first two fights on the
16:03
night and then the comain events not fights I love too much. So thankfully
16:07
we'll be at the golf course four pm Eastern. Someone gets a knockout or
16:10
big boys score early. At least uh, at least we'll be enjoying our
16:14
night, not having not making money, but at least I won't have to
16:17
be tilting for the next thirteen fights on the card. Keep it rolling.
16:19
Next fight on the card one I do have interest in. Definitely gonna get
16:23
some ownership in this one. Zach Pauga taken on Bogue Don Guskov. Looking
16:30
at the odds in this one, Paga or pricing Pauga eighty four hundred Guskov
16:33
seventy eight hundred, Paga very small favorite at minus one twenty three roughly plus
16:40
one zh three on the way back for Guskov, one of the most likely
16:42
fights to finish on the card minus three twenty five, both guys coming in
16:47
plus one point forty inside the distance. I will say too, it's a
16:52
rare interesting spot where Paga the small favorite, same inside the distance prop,
16:57
but Gustka much better round one props at plus two fifty compared to plus three
17:02
seventy five, And that totally makes sense. I think we nailed it on.
17:07
The books were wrong last week on the Lawana Carolina stole youranko round three
17:11
props. You remember that, Yeah, we were like, man, it
17:15
was like double on the stole youranco. We did not see that coming one
17:18
bit. And with the cardio and round one and how all that wins this
17:22
one? The books got right, the small underdogs still the better first round
17:26
prop. But how does this fight go? Man? We have one of
17:29
the more boring fighters so I always avoid in df assens at Pauga and now
17:34
one of the best fighters. I mean, we've only seen him once in
17:37
the UFC, but coming into the UFC, what like all of his wins
17:41
in the first round. No Cardio. Outside of the first round, he
17:45
throws hard knockout her bus. I mean ken Pauga survived round one, and
17:49
if he does, I think he can finish. I just don't think gooz
17:52
Gov can go fifteen minutes. So even though I don't love Paga as a
17:56
fighter or dangerous, if he's alive after round one, I think he just
18:00
naturally finishes this fight. So yeah, sign me up. Eighty four to
18:03
seventy eight. My pick is Pauga. However, in DFS, I always
18:07
loved the idea going build the lineup, plug in Paga, take out Palga,
18:12
go Guskov. That six one hundred bucks can go from thirty two way
18:17
chop to a five way chop with is thousands and thousands in the flag ship.
18:22
So it picks Paulga. But because of that six hundred, I wouldn't
18:25
be surprised if I'm more overweight to Guskov for that reason. What do you
18:29
see? Yeah, I mean, I just agree with everything you said.
18:32
Really, I think Guskov sucks, but the one thing he has is early
18:37
power, and he is the more dangerous striker in the first round of this
18:40
fight. But that's all he's got is just a knockout chance, and if
18:44
he doesn't get the knockout, he's probably not the better striker in the second
18:47
in the third round, I also think Pauga can lean on him against the
18:52
cage as long as he wants. I think he can go out there and
18:53
land takedowns. It's just that Polga doesn't do much, so he could do
18:59
just that, like lean on him against the cage, or get a takedown
19:02
and do nothing with it, just lay there for four minutes. So I
19:06
feel like he could make I mean, he could win and just not make
19:08
the optimal lineup by not doing enough. Whereas if Guskov wins, I mean,
19:12
he's more likely to finish this fight than the last two favorites that we
19:15
talked about, the two to one favorite. So if Guskov wins this fight,
19:18
it's a he's on the optimal lineup. So I would say he is
19:22
my preferred play. But I'm picking Palga to weather the first round storm and
19:29
I picked him to win by unanimous decisions just because I think he'll be boring
19:32
enough to get there. But yeah, he could finish in the second or
19:36
the third round, especially on the ground. After a few takedowns and a
19:38
bunch and a bunch of strikes and have a big ceiling. So this is
19:42
going to be a fight I want to target heavily. Uh Like. I
19:45
currently have it at a four star because of the Pauga side, but I
19:49
probably end up moving it up to a five star. All right, So
19:52
on that note, we're jumping all over the place. But I mentioned the
19:56
three fights I grouped together that I didn't like in the Mark and the Peely,
20:00
et ceteras, and all group three together, and have you rank them
20:03
all kind of in the mid tier? This Pauga Gusco fight, Ridolfo Vieira,
20:07
Petrosian, and then Michael Johnson Darius Flowers, all heavily favored to finish,
20:12
all kind of in that mid tier. How would you rank those?
20:17
Yeah, I mean those are all good fights to target. I would say
20:23
I don't have a strong wan either, So if it nothing came to the
20:26
top of your head, that's that's I would take close to a tie with
20:30
Michael Johnson, Flowers and this fight, and then my least favorite of the
20:33
three would be pet Trojan Vieira. All right, cool, I like it.
20:38
Fourteen fights to talk about three done so far. We'll keep it roll.
20:42
What's going on? See you hope everything's going well. We will see
20:47
you in Phoenix pretty shortly as well. Next fight on the car Jeremiah Wells,
20:52
Max Griffin minus one fifty five Wells plus one thirty five for Max Griffin.
20:57
Looking at the pricing, eighty five hundred is Wells, seventy seven hundred
21:03
is Max Griffin. The odds in this fight al already mentioned minus one fifty
21:07
five, one thirty five. This fight's minus one thirty to finish. Jeremiah
21:11
Wells plus two hundred inside the distance Griffin plus two forty. I'll let you
21:17
take this one away because this another one was kind of giving me some problems.
21:22
See might prefer playing This one is definitely gonna be Wells. I think
21:25
that Griffin's you're better striker, especially over the course of three rounds. Wells
21:30
probably has more one shot power, but more so early in the fight,
21:33
and I feel like everything he does has power in it, so he just
21:37
naturally is gonna slow down throughout the course of three rounds. But Griffin can
21:41
slow down too, So I just don't feel good about either side if this
21:45
is gonna go late and I think that Wells would be able to have the
21:48
ceiling with rounds one and two, land a few takedowns, maybe control the
21:52
fight for ten minutes throughout the course of three rounds. So Wells is the
21:56
guy who has more of a ceiling any more ways to hit it, because
22:00
he could wrestle for three rounds. He could get a submission really in any
22:03
round, or he could get a first round knockout. Whereas Griffin, I
22:07
think he's really in play for a closer to a ten X type of score
22:11
if he gets a decision win, and less than that if he is spending
22:15
a lot of time on his back, of course, but his real only
22:18
ceiling would be getting an early knockout. So I'm okay with a little bit
22:22
of Griffin because I think he's live, but I'm not gonna make it a
22:25
point to get him into any of my lineups. Where I do want to
22:27
make it a point to get Wells in some lineups. I think Wells has
22:30
a higher ceiling than a few of these nine K plays, So I'll probably
22:33
be overweight to Wells, underweight to Griffin, and I'll take Wells to win
22:37
by submission or twenty nine twenty eight. Yeah, that all makes a lot
22:41
of sense to me. Why this is giving me problems is because I'm picking
22:45
Griffin. I'm picking the underdog, but still in DFS like I like Wells
22:49
more than Griffin because you play for optimal. The more fights we talked about
22:53
it last week, the more fights there are, the higher scores you have
22:56
to expect, Like eighty from Griffin, I probably is not enough. And
23:00
I think, kind of like what I said about Pheey earlier, like if
23:04
Griffin wins, I do think it's probably him being able the stuff to take
23:07
downs from Wells lands, more volume on the feet, the jabs in his
23:11
face, like maybe pressure. I just think he wins like a decision probably,
23:17
And I don't think a decision win for I don't think the offensive wrestles
23:21
really in this fight. I just don't think the ceiling's really there. Now.
23:23
It came back on me on this fight. So I like this fight
23:26
more than those other three, the pheely Ws, the Marcos, the et
23:30
cetera. I definitely like it way worse than the other three, the Paugas,
23:33
the the Eras, the fights we just talked about there. Ownership.
23:38
I'm gonna be curious on again, all of our ownership will be up.
23:41
It's always one of the first things I look at. It's important in every
23:45
sport. It is definitely important in MMA, but man like, if Wells
23:49
gets minus one fifty five for eighty five hundred, just pretty bad money line
23:55
for the price. So if that keeps his ownership down. Even though I'm
23:57
picking against him ninety six one eleven, one oh three and one oh five
24:03
and his four UFC wins, he was on pace for another one hundred plus.
24:06
Probably last fight dominated Carlson Harrison. The wrestling until he got anaconda choke.
24:11
Should be five to oh though. When he wins, he averages over
24:14
three takedowns per fifteen minutes and he hits like a truck when he does land,
24:18
so he has outs for the for upside, which is why I'm playing
24:22
some. But I think Griffin could stuff the takedowns for the most part.
24:26
Lands Moore volume on the feet has only been knocked out once. This fight's
24:32
minus one thirty to finish. If it doesn't finish unless it's well as getting
24:36
four or five takedowns with all the control time, which I don't see,
24:40
I think this fight probably bus so I have it as overweight right now.
24:45
Just the nature of the card and not liking some other fights, I'm not
24:48
gonna have too much of this. Though it's not an overboard fight. It's
24:51
probably more of a round the field. I prefer Wells because of the upside.
24:55
Gryffin's only scored over one hundred one since twenty seventeen. I mean,
25:00
man even eighty five. It's not guaranteed to be enough, but on the
25:03
money line and dog pick, I do think Griffin can stuff takedowns, make
25:07
it competitive on the feet, and it's a close decision win. So Griffin
25:10
by decision. Wells is the preferred DFS play in turns of upside, but
25:15
this fight's really just mounted men and me. That's how I see it.
25:18
Fourteen fights, one at five thirty percent combining, twenty five percent combined.
25:23
I think I'd be fine. Let's keep it rolling. Next fight. Devin
25:27
Clark Marten prattneal minus two thirty is Clark pract meal coming back at plus one
25:33
ninety five Clark eighty nine hundred pract meew seventy three hundred. This fight is
25:38
minus or no, it's plus excuse me, plus one twenty to finish Clark
25:42
plus two to ten inside the distance prack me out plus four hundred. Throwing
25:48
it to you with the question, does Devin Clark put on the wrestling shoes
25:52
for fifteen minutes? Uh? Yeah, I mean I'm picking him to win
25:56
because that's his main edge, that's the biggest edge in this whole fight.
26:02
So I do think he'll go out there and maybe win two rounds with wrestling.
26:06
Yeah, he's gonna have to. Well, I guess he could knock
26:07
out Pratchnia. Neither one of these guys have great chins the other one.
26:11
I mean, they both have decent power, so we could get one hundred
26:15
plus point knockout for either one of them. But if Pracnia is not knocking
26:19
Clark out, he needs this to be a striking match, and if it
26:22
is, he still might not even ten x's seventy three hundred doll at price
26:26
deck. So we're really playing for the knockout on the Prachnew side. But
26:30
Clark does have that wrestling edge, and if he goes out there in lands
26:33
takedowns in every round and wins thirty twenty seven, he can score well in
26:37
a decision. But I'd also worry about him not wrestling as much as we'd
26:41
want and landing two to three takedowns in this fight, controlling it for five
26:48
to seven minutes. And he doesn't do a whole lot when it's on the
26:52
ground either, so he could score seventy five points in the decision too,
26:57
and at eighty nine hundred, that's not enough. So I don't know what
27:00
I'm gonna do with this fight. It's this one where I started it at
27:03
two start, don't really have much interest, but maybe I move it to
27:07
three star because of the TKO potential for both sides and the wrestling potential for
27:14
Clark. So that's kind of what I'm seeing in my head. Is I
27:15
just up it a little bit more so because of the Clark side. But
27:18
I would say he's my preferred play. He's the guy I'm picking to win,
27:22
and I'm not gonna make it a point to get Pratching the isl into
27:23
lineups, but I would be totally cool throwing him in if I'm making a
27:27
lineup by hand and I have seventy three hundred dollars left from my last spot,
27:30
Okay, Coolt's throw Prassing now in. He can get a hundred point
27:33
knockout. So it is what it's it's like those other three fights or four
27:38
fights that we've talked about. It's I'm fine with any of them. Not
27:41
gonna make it a point to jam in any of those guys, but if
27:45
the ones that we've talked about, wells would be my favorite favorite of the
27:49
fights, I like it. Oh yeah, this fight's kind of like last
27:55
week too. And the fact of I know you said it, You're like
27:57
any of the thirteen fights, the twenty six fighters last week could be optimal.
28:02
Charles Johnson made the optimal. Wasn't the stone cold nuts like the true
28:07
true optimal? But it won sixty five thousand in the flagship, and I
28:11
could see that like any of these guys. The biggest favorites minus or actually
28:15
we don't have Okie's new line. It was minus three oh five. Who
28:18
even knows there might be no favorites over minus three hundred now, But like
28:22
I have pracnew as a fade for twenty entry in below just because a I
28:26
think he sucks. I think he probably gets taken down and is off his
28:30
back. However, I mean these are big boys. At two oh five
28:34
plus one ninety five inside the distance isn't bad. He is eleven knockouts.
28:40
All it takes is catching the chint early in the first round, and next
28:41
thing you know, Practnew is someone you need on the optimal. So it's
28:45
a great DFS card. Fourteen fights, twenty eight fighters, all stop pretty
28:49
closely lined fights, especially when he'd take into consideration Practnew probably like what seven
28:55
eight percent own or something like that. Still, I don't like his upside.
28:59
I can't get to him in twenty and below. I will play some
29:02
Clark though. What I love first is he's eighty nine hundred Joe Piper's nine
29:07
thousand, like right away, Piper's gonna be two three times as high on
29:11
rightfully. So I don't like necessarily using Clark as a pivot off of Piper
29:15
as much as I do. You can just play both of them and those
29:18
that be your two most expensive fighters. But I just think he ever just
29:22
two over two takedowns per fifteen minutes, and we just saw two practicals last
29:27
three fights. Flip Beelen's fight in the Patrino fight, when he gets taken
29:32
down, he has nothing off his back, he slows as the fight goes.
29:36
I mean, I think Devin Clark can work him here. Maybe Land
29:37
some elbows, make him quit, find the sub do anything in this one.
29:42
Just use his pace as pressure, takedowns, top control, maybe get
29:47
him out of their late or something. Plus two ten inside the distance isn't
29:49
bad. But I feel like if he wins inside the distance, I feel
29:53
like there probably is a big score coming because I don't I don't just expect
29:56
him to flatline pract now it's like punch and that's it. I think it'd
30:00
be he just outworks some and dominates him that way. So I think Devin
30:04
Clark will be pretty low owning the opera tier. If that's the case,
30:07
I'll be playing some Now if he somehow came in Chalky, yeah no,
30:11
I'm not playing Devin Clark chalk. But I don't see that the case.
30:15
So give me some Devin Clark. No prac Now, I'm hoping late Finnis
30:18
or something, but I'm hoping he puts on the wrestling shoes. Hit that
30:25
like what we got Dennis the rex Fex. Everyone loves everyone loves the glasses,
30:29
the blue light glasses. I hit that like twenty five people in chat,
30:33
only seventeen likes Hey. Pretty good so far. We do appreciate that
30:36
appreciate that as well, though Dennis watching live watching on playback that life Bunton
30:41
always helps us out a ton and much appreciated. Any final thoughts in that
30:45
one, Let's keep it rolling. Final thoughts would be of all the fights
30:48
we've talked about and though that we've been ranking at, Clark would be my
30:51
second favorite favorite, and then Powergo would be third. Yeah, well shit,
30:56
I forgot about pa maybe do yeah, and then Clark Yeah. Figured
31:02
mine would go PAGA. I think Paga Clark Wells would be mine right now,
31:10
Let's keep it rolling. Next fight Loma Luke Bruna, Brazil. Loma
31:15
one of the biggest favorites on the card minus to eighty Brazil, So ninety
31:21
four hundred Loma sixty eight hundred Brazil minus to eighty is Loma plus two forty
31:26
on the way back is Brazil this fights plus one fifty to finish most of
31:30
that on the Loma side, plus two to fifteen inside the distance Brazil plus
31:36
five twenty five. Same question I'm gonna throw it back to you. Is
31:40
Loma gonna put on the wrestling shoes? I think she'll mix in takedowns and
31:47
that's why I'm picking her. To win. I think that's why her line
31:51
is where it is. If this is a striking match, I do think
31:52
it's pretty pretty damn close, and Brazil has like a four inchied advantage,
32:00
five inch reach advantage something like that. Uh, but it would be a
32:05
slower paced striking match where they're both just dancing around the cage picking their spots,
32:10
and either could land some takedowns. But Luma is the better wrestler.
32:15
She's the better and more dangerous grappler as well, so her grappling is what
32:19
warrants this line, but she's just not good enough or active enough with her
32:23
wrestling or on the ground for her to really score much more than ninety four
32:28
hundred dollars would need. I think her ceiling gets you right there at ten
32:31
X, and that probably doesn't even cut it. So I'm just gonna ex
32:37
this fight out of my lineups, and Brazil is in play for a close
32:39
decision win, but she probably does in ten X either. To be honest
32:44
with you, so I don't. I have not done a one star fight
32:46
yet since I started at ship in Nation. This is my first one.
32:51
Damn I'm gonna place with Loma. I mean, I'm playing I'm playing.
32:55
I'm playing the wrestling upside, Like, I totally get it. You look
32:59
at the game logs to eighty nine to ninety five ninety one. Two of
33:04
those were in decision. She had landed four takedowns in both of those two
33:07
minutes of control time seven minutes and another one. I can see the upside
33:13
like four takedowns, that's plenty. I think she four takedowns is in the
33:15
rama possibilities on this fight. I mean, like one hundred and eight strikes
33:21
they land in this one like you're padding them on the head. It seemed
33:24
a strike down there. If you get ten minutes of control time at the
33:28
end of the day. It's just a big favorite that I think is gonna
33:30
be pretty low own at ninety four hundred. Especially this oky line is gonna
33:35
be very important at ninety five hundred. But regardless, like in a vacuum,
33:38
Piper's a way better play than Loma for four hundred. Cheaper people will
33:43
just go that route. So, assuming your ownership's relatively low own in the
33:47
low twenties or something, in this matchup, closer to ten, is we're
33:52
el starter, Yeah, you're closer to ten. Day I was thinking high
33:54
teens low that if it's closer to that, I'm one hundred percent just gonna
33:58
play some Loma for wrestling ups so average over two per fifteen. I think
34:02
Brazil's a solid striker, Loma salad striker too, but the striking is competitive.
34:07
Why not try and take the easiest path to victory hoping she does so?
34:10
I'll play some at ninety four hundred. But I get what you're saying
34:14
too. You need you want one ten probably to feel good with Woma,
34:19
and that's not even a guaranteed lock on the optimal, but that's probably what
34:22
you want. And I see she hasn't scored over one hundred ones. Yeah,
34:25
I feel like her chances of hitting one hundred and ten points like definitely
34:30
sub ten percent, but like maybe sub five percent hitting one hundred and ten
34:35
points in my opinion, fair enough, fair play, but hey, her
34:37
ownership might be down there. You think too. I'll play some, especially
34:40
if twenty percent gets me overweight. I will not be playing any Brazil.
34:45
What's going on? Eric Garci, appreciate those words. Thank you man,
34:49
Thank you Eric. Hope you're having a good day. Keep it rolling.
34:52
Next fight on the car plenty to talk about fourteen. This is the biggest
34:58
I shouldn't even say the biggest favorite. We don't a line. The highest
35:00
price fighter Balaji Oki taking on Timothy Kwamba. Again. We were supposed to
35:07
have Okie taking on Hadzovich, which that line was minus three to oh five
35:12
and Headsavich was plus two fifty five. It was ninety five hundred sixty seven
35:16
hundred. Okie's price won't change regardless of what this line comes in at.
35:21
So he's gonna be ninety five hundred regardless Kwamba. Depending on what the line
35:25
is. This is where DraftKings will like if it's a pick them, if
35:30
it's minus one ten apiece, draftings might play put Kwamba at like eighty one
35:34
hundred, but Okie's price will still say the same. Now, if we
35:38
got minus six hundred Oki and Kwamba's plus four hundred, he might be like
35:44
sixty five hundred or sixty four hundred. So DK will mess with Kwambas price
35:47
tag and make it fair according to the algorithm. OKI's won't change. But
35:53
I mean breakdown this fight as best you can. We don't have a line.
35:55
We're talking a little pre show. This Kowamba guy he fought last week.
36:00
I'm tough and tough literally last week February second, got a second round
36:04
Ko. He's eight and one, four wins by koh only lost by sub
36:10
fights out of extreme cautour, coming up from featherweight to one five in this
36:15
fight. So it's good to see he's not gonna have to cut weight at
36:19
one forty five two weeks in a row. I don't know Oki naking his
36:22
UFC debut though. Give the people a breakdown of this one. Seeah,
36:28
I uh, I like this okie kid. I think he I mean he's
36:32
got that like Phil Hawes physique, Like he looks like powerful. You could
36:37
tell he's gonna be a much stronger fighter in this matchup. Uh. So
36:40
he doesn't get cutie. I'm only a bat of a chin as Phil haws
36:45
had, and he's he could be our new Phil haw is a good one.
36:49
Uh. But Kuwamba's moving up in weight class, taking this fight on
36:52
less than a week's notice, moving up in weight class, so Okie's gonna
36:58
be a lot more powerful, lot stronger and Kowamba. So let's compare it
37:05
to Hadzovic. I think that Hadsovic was the better pure striker than Kowamba probably
37:10
has more knockout power than him as well. I would actually say the only
37:15
striking advantage Kouwamba really has in this matchup is that he's got faster kicks,
37:19
faster head kicks. Maybe he can land a head kick at some point,
37:22
But Kouwamba is a much better wrestler than hads Avic, better grappler as well,
37:28
so he's not gonna get completely smoked on the ground here like Kadzvick probably
37:30
would have. But at the same time, like his best asset is his
37:36
wrestling, and now he's moving up fighting a better wrestler, a stronger wrestler,
37:39
and Okie's gonna be the better striker, the bully in this fight,
37:44
pushing forward, landing harder shots, and once he starts to hurt his opponent,
37:49
he just smells blood and he starts to unleash until the ref steps in,
37:52
and I think that's what we're gonna get here. At some point,
37:54
Okie just bullies this guy until it's over. So I'm on the Okid.
38:00
I'm expecting him to be lyned at least like minus two thirty minus two thirty
38:05
five or better, So I'm kind of hoping I'm wrong, and it's it's
38:08
less than that, because if that's the case, he's not going to get
38:12
any ownership at ninety five hundred dollars. But either way, no matter what
38:14
his line is, I don't want a good amount of Oki at ninety five
38:17
hundred dollars. And then for me, Kowamba, he'd really just be a
38:22
hedge play. Like if I ended up with a lot of Oki, then
38:24
maybe get like ten fifteen percent Kowomba. But he's gonna have to get off
38:30
on his wrestling against a better wrestler, a stronger wrestler, more powerful guy,
38:37
and I just think it is a tough matchup for him, especially on
38:39
short notice. So'll give me Oki, and I like, I really liked
38:42
what I saw from Oki do vigy wrestles in this one because the gainst haads
38:45
a bitch, I mean, man, that was free. I thought,
38:49
like ninety five, like, why would he not put on the wrestling She
38:52
was well at ninety five hundred and this even having the striking advantage, and
38:57
just say he gets a second round Ko, it's not guaranteed to be enough.
39:00
So do you think he mixes the takedown? Yeah? So damn good
39:05
question. I don't know. I think he could, but I also think
39:07
he could just go out there and strike, so it's I don't know.
39:10
I would love to know what his game plan was. Yeah, I would
39:14
like it more if he would go out there and wrestle, because Kwamba's one
39:17
loss, and he got his ass kicked really he got dropped really quick in
39:22
the fight and then he just got out wrestled until he was choked out.
39:25
And I think Colomba probably spend a lot of time on his back here if
39:30
Okie really wanted to wrestle. But I just don't. Yeah, I have
39:32
no a clue. I think he could beat him anyway he wants to,
39:35
so I'm not sure, but yeah, I like him either way. No,
39:39
I like to hear that. I'm gonna wait for the line on this
39:42
one. I'm gonna look at ownership and all of that, because if he
39:45
somehow comes in minus four fifty minus one twenty inside the distance, he's by
39:51
far the best playing oppera tier after Joe Pifer. Like, we're not looking
39:54
at great people up there. Lomo was up there, who we just talked
39:58
about, Like even Gregrew Regaz is up there. We have the Hyder of
40:01
meals the Marcos. It's not that strong of an upper tier. So if
40:06
we get ok in a tier of his own with money line or inside the
40:08
distance prop, him and Piper will get all the ownership. Now, if
40:13
it's not like that, then, like if kind of similar props as Lomer
40:17
or something, then I don't think he'll get as much ownership, and just
40:22
like Piper might be like sixty percent or something like that. So I will
40:24
be looking postly lined at the odds and of course look at projected ownership.
40:30
So I did look at this PD place I thought there was, and then
40:36
I just looked at our calendar again and it wasn't on there. So if
40:39
you're a member, definitely checked the PGA discord, check the ship and nation
40:45
our website, and then look at our shows too. It's I think top
40:49
left, but I definitely would check the discord for that because I thought so,
40:53
But now I'm not seeing it on our schedule, so I don't know.
40:58
Man, I don't know. Check check the discord for you. Of
41:00
all of our premium content, of course, we'll be up on the site,
41:02
and we do have just a PGA only membership as well. If you
41:07
don't want MMA, NBA, et cetera. You just want to go in
41:10
PGA for the year. I think there's weekly monthly prices for that as well,
41:15
full season getting the discord just PGA only cheaper prices if you want to
41:21
check that out. Keep it rolling. Plenty of fights to talk about.
41:25
Next fight on the card, Carlos Protest taking on Trevin Giles. Ninety two
41:30
hundred is protase. Seven thousand is Trevin Giles. This fight is protase minus
41:37
two sixty five Giles plus two to twenty five. One of the better fights
41:40
to target on the card. Minus two to seventy five to finish is this
41:45
fight protas minus one fifty five inside the distance Giles plus four hundred, So
41:51
protis. I do expect him to get a good amount of ownership in the
41:54
upper tier. One of the few fighters expected to finish on the card at
41:59
minus one fifty five. Good fight to target making his UFC debut looks like
42:04
a primary striker to me. Trevin Giles, I think he's a fine fighter.
42:08
He's not something I really back very much. He's fought some solid competition
42:13
plus four hundred inside the distance at seven k and kind of leverage off of
42:17
Pronte's at least what I'm expecting. I think Prote's probably mid thirties percent something
42:22
like that. I'll play some Protis, he's dangerous. I'll probably play some
42:27
Officer Giles as well as leverage and a fight that should be fun. How
42:31
do you see this fight going? And then do you think Giles can have
42:35
any success mixing in takedowns? Yeah, I think he's gonna need to win
42:39
the fight because I do think practice is the better striker, the cleaner striker,
42:44
the higher volume striker, the more dangerous striker. He could maybe keep
42:50
it close on the feet just volume alone, I guess, and Giles looks
42:54
like the bigger guy, like he would be able to land more one shot
42:58
power, but he just doesn't do a whole lot with it. So I
43:00
would think he's got to go out there and land takedowns to win this fight.
43:04
So if Giles wins, I think he's putting up ten x or more
43:07
because I would guess that maybe a quarter of the fight's gonna have to take
43:10
place on the ground, at least a quarter of the fight for him to
43:14
get the win. So I do like Giles, and I also wasn't overly
43:16
impressed with prote So or whatever his name is. It was just a striking,
43:22
as he's just a pure striker. He does have the little bit better
43:28
than the sixty it D line, which is really solid here, and I
43:31
do want a good amount of them in DraftKings. But I'm thinking i'll just
43:36
match his round one line, which is closer to like thirty three percent,
43:42
and that probably puts me right in line with the field. Whereas Giles,
43:45
I don't see him getting too much ownership, and I'm fine getting a little
43:47
bit of leverage there, but I will take prey tests to win by TKO.
43:53
At some point, I just think the strikes will start to add up
43:57
and he could probably put Giles away in the second or the third round.
44:00
But that's what he's gonna need to if he gets a decision win here.
44:02
I don't think he'll be on the optimal so you can talk me into going
44:07
underweight on him. It's just that I'm already fading Loma. Don't really love
44:13
Mark Gills a Meal, don't really love it so compared to those guys,
44:16
I definitely think Pratease is a better play on paper, and I am picking
44:21
him to get the knockout. So yeah, I just think like a third
44:25
of my lineup sounds good. Yeah, he's plus two hundred and round one,
44:30
Like that's what like I'll be playing like I Pratics, I would be
44:34
shocked if he wasn't higher on than Loma. There's ok up there who probably
44:38
will be higher on than Loma, like Devin Clark, the Piper, the
44:43
pratese Like that's where we're talking about. I'll be using Loma as the clerks
44:46
of the world when I'm eating more chalk as dogs or like Joe Pifer and
44:51
stuff. But Prates is in my top tier, Like, he's gonna be
44:53
one of the higher guys in my tier rankings two seventy five for this fight
44:58
to finish a good strike. Think if he does win, it's probably gonna
45:02
be a finish. I have interested in Trenton Giles too, though, like
45:07
comparing him to prap mee out down below. I like him more than to
45:09
reach a long especially knowing Praiss will get some ownership and to get some leverage
45:14
off that way. I like him more than Fernie Garcia. I like him
45:19
more than Brunea brazil Like. I like him more than a good amount of
45:22
these cheaper dogs. And again I think Praises get some ownership, so you
45:24
get leverage with some Giles too. So yeah, I really like this fight,
45:29
one of my more favorite fights on the card. I think Giles maybe
45:32
wrestles Prates is dangerous on the feet because of the fun one and one that
45:37
does finish on the card, so I'll have some exposure, no doubt about
45:40
that. Keep it rolling to coin flip Baby. Closest fight on the card
45:45
and this fight was rebooked from a couple months ago. Rodolfo Vieira Armin Petrosian
45:52
minus won ten apiece. This fight is minus two hundred to finish. We
45:55
got Vieira plus one thirty five inside the distance, Armen Petrosian plus two point
46:00
fifteen via opened minus one thirty this time around, so some money has come
46:07
in on Armen Petrojian. It literally is one of the best grapplers in the
46:12
UFC against one of the best strikers in the UFC. There really is no
46:16
two ways around it. Anytime it's on the feet, Armen Petrojian is a
46:20
massive favorite. Anytime it's on the mat, Rodolfo Vieira is a massive favorite
46:25
who's gonna get the fight where they wanted to go. Yeah, this is
46:30
the male version of Stolorenko Carolina from last week, where Vieia is a better
46:34
grappler but Armand's a better striker. So I kind of just see the same
46:38
thing, Like if Vera goes out there, gets a takedown in the first
46:42
round, he's super live for ninety five to ninety eight points and that that's
46:47
probably gonna be on the optimal lineup if he wins. But if he doesn't
46:51
get that first round finish, he's just gonna slow down. Where Arman,
46:54
I don't see that happening. And when he starts to slow down, the
46:58
takedowns are not gonna be there, and arm just gonna start to pick him
47:00
apart. And I'm picking Armand to win by unanimous decision, but I picked
47:05
Carolina to win by unanimous decision. And now I'm thinking he might just you
47:07
know, I might just piece him apart in the second and third round and
47:10
get a late stoppage. So last time this fight happened, I think I
47:15
was still picking Arman, but I think I was overweight on Vieira and I
47:21
didn't have a lot of arm And this time around I might go underweight to
47:24
Vieria, overweight to Armin just really because of freaking Carolina fight last week,
47:30
and I just think this is very similar to that fight. Yeah, I'm
47:36
on. I mean, it's fight no strong lean here. I was hoping
47:39
I wrote it up yesterday and the line was like minus won twenty one hundred.
47:44
I was hoping it was gonna keep going with Rodolfo Vieira because again,
47:49
make a lineup, plug in Vierra, take out Vieira, go patrojury and
47:52
it is only two hundred. But it make you a little different. Now
47:54
that it's a coin flip, I'm not really sure what the odds are gonna
47:58
or what the ownership's gonna do. Like people usually like to tend to go
48:01
to the grappler, not as strong, lean as much anymore. I'm picking
48:06
Petrojan, but it's not a confident pick one bits. I think he can
48:09
stuff takedowns and eventually finish him on the feet. I think this fight gets
48:14
finished. It goes to decision. Man, if it's pe Trojan by decision,
48:20
it probably is a bus. I fit's Vieira by decision. I mean,
48:25
I guess Patrojan just stayed safe. The whole time and fought off this
48:29
emissions, But man, I still don't know if he could stay on the
48:32
bottom for ten minutes against Vieira in a fight like this. I don't slightly
48:38
Petrojian, but I don't really think Vierra has ten minutes of wrestling Cardio,
48:43
especially against a guy with a good get up game. So I think,
48:49
yeah, I mean, I think the arm and should be much more likely
48:52
to finish in the third round, more likely to finish, I mean,
48:54
to win in a decision, But I think he's playing for like ten x
49:00
the decision win where he has one hundred point upside, just like Carolina,
49:02
just just stuff and takedowns and then fucking them up on the feet and then
49:07
eventually getting a stoppage. He could get multiple knockdowns along the way as well.
49:12
So yeah, I've just been talking to myself into like tripling what my
49:16
ownership would have been the first time they were going to fight. Yeah,
49:20
that makes sense. I lean the Patrojian inside if I had to pick,
49:22
But if I have forty percent Viera and twenty Petrosian, I love everything else
49:27
in my script, I'd go with it. At the end of the day,
49:29
I have no strong lead in this fight, wrestler. If someone does,
49:32
like if you know anyone, I think I put it in the slave
49:35
plan. But if you know anyone out there that max expect this fight,
49:38
like put like their five units ten units and feel that confident, send them
49:43
my way because I want to hear the explanation, because I don't know anyone
49:45
can be confident in Vierre getting a takedown or not getting a takedown, which
49:50
probably is what this fight comes down to. Yeah, this is one of
49:52
the where the winner should look like a minus four hundred favorits Yeah, one
49:57
hundred percent. Does it get on the mat or does it not? Totally
50:00
I agree with that, Big Driggs. Appreciate you man. Gonna be a
50:02
great weekend, no doubt about that. Hopefully you have a good weekend yourself.
50:07
I think. Still five fights, a lot, plenty of fights,
50:08
last fifty minutes down, Still the main card to talk about again. Appreciate
50:14
everyone hanging out like button subscribe, Button House us out a ton and if
50:16
you want to join us at the Nation. A lot of different options weekly,
50:21
monthly, six month, annual, PGA wastes management tomorrow, MMA eleven
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head over to the nation, get in the discord if you do join a
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monthly, six month or annual package, Let's keep it rolling. Next fight
50:43
on the card, another great mid tier fight we talked about a little earlier,
50:46
Michael Johnson Darius Flowers. Johnson coming in about minus one forty, Flowers
50:52
plus one twenty on the way back its fights minus two eighty to finish,
50:57
Michael Johnson plus one thirty. Inside of this Darius Flowers plus one sixty five
51:02
eighty three hundred seventy nine hundred snack dab in the mid tier. You did
51:07
say you like this fight more than the Petrosian the era fight. We just
51:12
talked about explaining to the people why and who do you like more? Yeah,
51:15
I just think it's more likely to end early. And I also think
51:22
that, like, if Flowers wins this fight, I think he's really competing
51:25
for the optimal lineup because Flowers has big power. I didn't really remember much
51:30
about Flowers, so I had to go back and watch them all again because
51:34
I remembered him having a really bad ground game. But that's definitely when he's
51:38
the nail. Like. He's a decent wrestler, and he used to fight
51:40
at one hundred and eighty five pounds and he's wrestling one hundred and eighty five
51:44
pounders. Now he's fighting a guy who used to fight at one hundred and
51:47
forty five pounds and they're meeting at one fifty five. And I went back
51:52
for flowers last fight against Jake Matthews. Man, he was piecing him up
51:55
on the feet. He was layding a lot of shots and you could tell
51:58
Matthews did not like to be there. And I think if he's landing those
52:00
types of shots against Johnson, he's gonna put him away. And I also
52:05
think he could wrestle land a couple of takedowns throughout, I mean, on
52:09
his way into getting a knockout as well, and maybe getting one hundred and
52:13
ten points, just absolutely breaking the slate. I don't know what his cardio
52:16
would be like, but his biggest issue is getting out grappled, and he's
52:22
been submitted a lot. That's the same issue for Michael Johnson. Michael Johnson's
52:27
not a good grappler either. He's basically got the same ratio of subs to
52:30
getting sub as Flowers does. And I think that Michael Johnson's path would be
52:36
to survive those early shots and then you just piece Flowers up. I mean
52:40
he could piece them up in the first round. I don't know. I
52:42
think he is the more cleaner striker overall, is gonna be the higher volume
52:45
striker, but he's not gonna be throwing the heat that Flower is gonna be
52:49
thrown in that first round. And then once Flowers starts to sorry, it
52:53
starts to slow down, then Johnson can really pick it up in the second
52:57
and third round to put a striking clinic on this guy. Probably put him
53:00
away in the second or the third round and put up a high score.
53:04
But he's coming off a brutal knockout loss. Now he's fighting a guy with
53:07
more knockout power coming down. And wait, once again, I think Flower
53:12
is gonna knock him out. So give me Flowers first round knockout. I'll
53:15
be overweight to him. But I still do want a good amount of Johnson
53:17
as well, because he is the better striker. I don't know who's the
53:22
better wrestler, but after the first round, I think Johnson's probably the better
53:24
wrestler, and then they both suck at grappling, So I don't think we're
53:28
getting a submission. It's just gonna be whoever gets takedowns can land some stuff,
53:31
a lot of shots in top control. But if this does go all
53:36
three, man, I have a hard time seeing it go all three,
53:38
first of all, but if it does, I think they both could put
53:43
up a decent score. So that's that's the reason why. I just think
53:45
that Arman could be on the optimal lineup and score seventy points and not get
53:50
there. Whereas even in the decision, I think these guys are scoring more
53:54
than ten x and there'll probably be a few takedowns included. Yeah, don't
53:59
I don't think this fight goes a decision either, would be interesting how it
54:01
scores, like I'm nervous for Flowers Cardio. But also that last fight,
54:07
which was his UFC debut, he did take on short notice. It was
54:10
in elevation, it was in Utah, so him slowing down and pretty much
54:15
after round one you could tell he was pretty gas. I think he took
54:17
a nut shot or some early too, took some time to recover as well.
54:22
In that one. I am nervous about the cardio, though, I
54:24
think it's Flowers in round one if he needs to. I think he needs
54:28
to do it in round one, not needs but that's where a lot of
54:30
his win equity is because I think Johnson just the better technical striker out of
54:35
the south Paw Flowers more wild with a lot of power, like he catches
54:38
them for sure, but if he doesn't man he slides back the stick and
54:44
move like Johnson, I think can just put on a clinic actually on the
54:47
feed out of the South Paul stance against Flowers, who's way more aggressive and
54:52
not as technical, and Johnson's got eighty percent takedown defense like I think Flowers
54:55
will try and mix some takedowns physically strong. I just I think that's Assi's
55:00
cardio if he does go that route, and I don't think he finishes him
55:05
on the match, so I think it probably would work for him, but
55:07
maybe hurt him in the longer term. I think Johnson My pick is Johnson.
55:12
He survives early, more technical, he eventually knocks out Flowers, who
55:17
slows down as the fight goes. But it's not like Johnson has no pop
55:21
like that left hand. He puts combos together he can hit. So I
55:23
got Johnson by ko probably second round, maybe third round, but I'll be
55:28
playing Flowers too. This is a great fight, great fights to target.
55:31
Yeah, Michael w very nice sweat title. Yeah, I appreciate that man.
55:37
Go Bader's baby, Go bad Or's Michael. A couple more fights left
55:40
on the car, keep it rolling. Gregor Rodriguez, Brat's Varas minus two
55:45
thirty for Gregor Rodriguez plus one ninety five for Brad's Varas. This fights minus
55:50
one twenty to finish Rodriguez plus one fifty inside the dissens Tavares plus three to
55:55
ninety. I guess I'll throw it to you. How does Gregor Rodriguez stack
56:00
up against Looma, ok, Pifer, Clark, Pecheris I definitely bop Butcher
56:09
deft for Terris the ninety two hundred protes I guess protees Rodriguez would be a
56:14
great comp But how does Rodriguez compare to most in the upper tier and talk
56:17
about Tavars? Uh, Yeah, he's gonna stack up probably higher than most
56:24
of them for me, because he's dangerous everywhere. He's the more dangerous fighter
56:30
anywhere this fight goes. He's got much more punching power, and he's the
56:35
much better and more dangerous grappler. He's the better wrestler as well. The
56:40
issues with Rodriguez are his chin, first of all, but Tavares doesn't have
56:45
a lot of power. He couldn'tven knock out Chris Widman in his last fight,
56:50
so that's not great. And then the other issue for Rodriguez would be
56:53
maybe his volume. So Rodriguez could lose just a three round striking here just
57:00
based on volume alone if he's not landing big shots. But at the same
57:05
time, on average, he's landing higher volume than Tavares too. So I
57:08
just really like to uh Rodriguez in this matchup. And we're on the protest
57:15
fight, I said, i'd I don't. I'm not gonna match his sixty
57:19
percent inside the distance line with my exposure, but I'll match his first round
57:22
line with Rodriguez. I want to match his inside the distance line because any
57:27
finish from this guy is gonna score well. He could knock this guy out
57:30
in any round. He could also submit him in any round, but it's
57:34
most likely his best work is gonna come early in the fight, and I
57:37
think he puts up one hundred plus points if he gets a finish. I
57:39
would worry about Rodriguez winning a decision because he doesn't wrestle as much as I
57:44
would like, and that is what would take him off the optimal lineup in
57:47
a win. So right now he's got about a forty percent it D line.
57:53
I'll probably have about forty percent Rodriguez and then Tavares. I mean,
57:58
I don't think he scores at all in the decision, so he's more in
58:01
play, like targeting against that weak chin. So maybe I match his knockout
58:07
prop if anything. I mean, I'd rather Fad Tavars, to be honest
58:08
with you. But if I'm having forty percent Rodriguez and he gets sparked in
58:12
the first round and be pissed, so I probably want like ten to fifteen
58:15
percent Rodriguez, I mean a Tavares. But uh, I like Rodriguez a
58:20
good amount in this fight, and I think it's a good matchup for him
58:22
to win. Get a good win against the old guy who's gonna be on
58:25
his way out soon, and with his chin issue, you would think he
58:30
starts to fight a little bit smarter and go out there and look for takedowns
58:34
because he's a great run he's a great boxer, a ton of power on
58:37
the feet, but he's a better grappler than he is striker. So I
58:39
would love to see him go out there and wrestle a little bit in every
58:43
matchup, and then he's possible title contender in my opinion. Yeah, I
58:46
just don't see him wrestling in I've Brad Tavar's takedown defense solid. We don't
58:52
see Gregory shoe for asth maty takedowns, so I just don't see it as
58:54
much in this fight. This fight gave me problems too, because what he
58:59
does win ninety nine, one o nine, one forty one, one,
59:02
twenty seventy six, Like, I'll take four of those. I don't know
59:06
ninety nine it would be borderline, but you take one twenty one, forty
59:08
one, one oh nine for sure. Whereas you look at Tavares, I
59:13
mean he's known not to score while at all. He hasn't scored over one
59:16
hundred Go back back all the way to twenty twelve when he scored more than
59:21
one hundred points? Is that Tavars? But then I go in this one
59:24
and I'm like, man, I'm picking the underdog. I'm picking Tavares in
59:28
this fight, like the chin at Gregor Rodriguez definitely concerns me. Like if
59:32
the jabs sitting there for Davars, I don't think Gregory gets takedowns. It's
59:37
I think it stays on the feet for all fifteen minutes, and at the
59:39
end of the day, I just think the line's a little too wide minus
59:43
two thirty up to minus two fifty. I think it's more Tavares is really
59:46
tough to put away. I think it's probably goes a little later than people
59:52
think. I'm excited to see ownership on Gregor Rodriguez because I love Joe Pifer
59:57
a lot more for one hundred less, and if he's gonna be up there
1:00:00
in ownership, I like protaste more for one hundred more as well at ninety
1:00:04
two hundred, and if like Rodriguez is gonna be up there, maybe that's
1:00:07
where I grab some of my loma, some of my clerk, and I
1:00:10
get underweight. Maybe I'm Gregory Rodriguez. I still, even though I'm picking
1:00:15
Tavares as a dog, I still don't love him much though, just be
1:00:17
kind of like the Max Griffin. I'm picking him. However, I still
1:00:22
think Gregor Rodriguez is probably a better DFS player than Tavares because even if Tavares
1:00:27
win, just like Griffin, probably a decision seventy points maybe even on this
1:00:31
card at seven K seventy points is not something I'm looking for. So I'm
1:00:37
fourteen fights. If all fourteen fights stay on the card, I'm playing for
1:00:40
ceiling even as dogs, and I just don't love that ceiling down there inside
1:00:45
the distance prop plus three ninety and Gregory's chin isn't great, so maybe I'll
1:00:50
fifteen to twenty percent something like that, but I do think he probably needs
1:00:53
to knock out at the end of the day. Tavaris is my pick for
1:00:58
an upset. I don't like it though in DFS for the upside and greg
1:01:01
Rodriguez, I don't pick him to win, so ninety or ninety one hundred
1:01:07
jamming him isn't really gonna be something I'm looking to do as well. But
1:01:10
he also has upside and the win, so just a man fight for me.
1:01:15
Really, I'll take the dog, though I like other upper tier fighters
1:01:17
more. Let's keep it going. Next fight on the card, Robert breecheck,
1:01:22
Oh what do we gots? What's going on? Sheets? Joy the
1:01:24
waste management pretty interesting method. Yeah, Marley talked about that a lot.
1:01:29
Look at the inside of the distant prop put the percent next to it,
1:01:31
always thinking, is my man big Marley? Three fights left man over an
1:01:37
hour and appreciate everyone hanging out. Robert breecheck igor Poteria minus one ninety five
1:01:44
is pre check plus one seventy is Potaria great fights a target? Minus eight
1:01:49
hundred? Is this fight inside the distance? Pre check minus one eighty five?
1:01:53
Poteria plus two twenty five? Is this an all in fighter? Are
1:01:59
you gonna make it? Make a rule in this one? We don't have
1:02:01
pricing yet on DraftKings, but I'm guessing this is the eighty eight hundred fight.
1:02:07
Again, we have an eighty seven hundred and eighty eight hundred still open.
1:02:10
Either this fight's eighty eight hundred and seventy four hundred or it's eighty seven
1:02:15
seventy five, is my guess, regardless of what it is under price for
1:02:20
minus eight hundred inside the distance, So I'll be playing a lot. What
1:02:22
do you see? Yeah, I'm definitely not gonna be all in. I'm
1:02:25
not gonna make a rule I mean for all in, but I do want
1:02:29
a lot of it because I think we're gonna get a knockout or at least
1:02:31
a finish either way in this fight, and minus eight hundred, I mean,
1:02:35
that's by far the best ITD line on the card. So my issue
1:02:42
is that if this doesn't end inside the distance, neither one of these guys
1:02:46
is gonna score well, and it would be Poteria who has a better chance
1:02:51
at scoring well and is more likely to win a decision. In my opinion.
1:02:54
This this Brizac guy, and he's not that good. He's a big
1:03:00
favorite here because he has five first round knockouts and it looks like he's got
1:03:05
the touch of death and Polteria has been knocked out in like three or yeah,
1:03:09
three of his last all three of his last losses. So it's I
1:03:14
feel like we're getting a little bit of recently biased there. But Bryce check
1:03:17
is not that good. He's got power, but that's it. That's the
1:03:22
only good thing about him. Other than that, he's kind of just more
1:03:24
of a one punch at a time type of fighter. He's not getting any
1:03:29
volume whatsoever, and I don't think I saw him look for a single takedown
1:03:32
in five six plus fights that I watched. Well, shit, I watched
1:03:37
all of his knockouts. I watched like seven plus fights of this guy.
1:03:39
Never saw him go for a takedown. I did see him get dropped by
1:03:43
a jab and finished shortly afterwards on the ground, though, And I think
1:03:46
that Poltia is gonna be the better grappler. I think probably the higher volume
1:03:52
striker, and had Poteria had a different ref in his last fight, he
1:03:55
could have got the win with that second round TKO. And what's the line
1:04:00
look like there, I'm not so sure Polteria is not favored, So my
1:04:03
preferred play is definitely the underdog in this fight. I will be overweight to
1:04:08
Poteria for sure. I'm hoping that Bridecheck is very chalky because I would like
1:04:12
to go underweight to him. He should wins. He's gonna knock this guy
1:04:15
out and put up a big score, so you could you could go out
1:04:17
there and bet Bryce Check for one minus one ninety five to win, or
1:04:23
he could save ten cents and bet a minus one eighty five to win inside
1:04:26
the distance, Like there is no other winning for this guy. He's got
1:04:29
to get a knockout in my opinion, and I'm not a fan of paying
1:04:32
uh two to one on early ko or bust type of fighters. So he's
1:04:38
the type of guy who I love to fade. But at the same time,
1:04:40
he's got a hundred point ceiling, so I'm not gonna fade. I'll
1:04:42
just go underweight and I'll go overweight to Poteria, who I'm picking to win
1:04:45
this fight, and I think he could win by knockout or submission, whereas
1:04:49
Brideschack is knockout or bust. I love it. I picked Poteria in this
1:04:54
one too. I mean at the end, I just think the odds are
1:04:57
too wide. I think it's too grown. Bat and that are gonna to
1:05:00
meet in the center and throw down and someone's gonna fall and laying minus two
1:05:02
hundred feels crazy to me in this one. So I love how were lockstep
1:05:06
and I'd be shocked at bree Check wasn't one of the more popular fighters on
1:05:11
the card. Again, I think it'll be eighty eight hundred seventy four hundred,
1:05:14
this fight will be priced if not eighty seven to seventy five, And
1:05:17
if he's eighty eight hundred as a minus one ninety favorite, that's minus one
1:05:21
eighty five inside the distance, like he's gonna be own He's probably gonna be
1:05:26
one of the most chalky on the card, so but Terio leverage. He'll
1:05:29
get some too, probably not nearly as much as Brycheck, though I'm not
1:05:33
listing break Check is underweight, but I might end up like if he's fifty
1:05:38
five percent, I have forty five that's underweight. But I'm still gonna have
1:05:42
a lot of this fight. I think someone goes down, and I hope
1:05:45
it Tori gets the win. You and not both on the dog here would
1:05:48
be nice to cash a dog tickets. Two fights left Cole Maine event Dan
1:05:54
Egay, Andre Peey minus one seventy Egay, Andre Peeley stepping in on short
1:05:59
notice for Kis Almeida at plus one five its fights plus one twenty five to
1:06:04
finish Egay plus two fifteen inside the distance, Phelly plus four hundred eighty six
1:06:11
hundred seventy six hundred. This fight is priced. And yeah, I gave
1:06:15
my take earlier on the show. But if you just tuned in three fights
1:06:17
on this card that I don't like that I'm debating underweight or fade Daniel Marcus
1:06:23
rich a long hider, Emil Fernie Garcia, and then this fight Egay,
1:06:27
Pheey, all of them slightly favored to go the distance, all primary strikers
1:06:31
in the fights. I think they need a knockout or bus for the most
1:06:35
part. Dan Egay, I don't know if the dude can be knocked out.
1:06:39
And Andre Peely, I just trust him man. He's a solid,
1:06:43
well rounded fighter, good movement on the feed. Egay does hit hard,
1:06:46
but only five knockouts. Even a second or third round knockout for Ega might
1:06:50
not be enough. I don't think really wrestling like Peelly averages takedowns. I
1:06:57
don't think he really gets them in this fight. At the end of the
1:06:59
day, I think it's a close decision. Feely in a close decision win.
1:07:02
I think score seventy to eighty, which I don't really love at the
1:07:05
price. E Gay doesn't score well either. But if I had to pick
1:07:10
one fighter to play, I think it would be Ega for me, though,
1:07:14
because if plus two ten inside the distance, Peely has been knocked out
1:07:17
has been submitted. I think Egay has more outs for a finish, which
1:07:21
is why he's my preferred play. But yeah, I don't love this fight,
1:07:25
good real life fight. What about you? Yeah, completely agree.
1:07:30
I think it's a super close fight and probably goes to a close decision where
1:07:33
they start reading off the split, and in that case, I would always
1:07:38
rather be holding that underdog ticket. I think it's just really close, you
1:07:42
know, minute to minute, and maybe I mean maybe even favors Pheely.
1:07:45
I think that Ega is probably the better wrestler, probably has more one punch
1:07:49
power, but Pheely is a solid wrestler, he's a decent grappler. He's
1:07:56
got twice as many knockouts as Ega. So I just think it's closer to
1:08:00
a coin flip, and that's what talked me into going with Pheey. But
1:08:02
I do think Ega is more in play for a knockout, which could put
1:08:05
him up in the hundred point range, whereas I think Pheeley's playing for ten
1:08:10
X if he wins. I'm hoping for ten X kind of thing, So
1:08:14
I don't really want even though I'm picking Philly to win, I don't really
1:08:15
want a lot of them. He's kind of like my Tavares or Max Griffin
1:08:19
for you. Whereas Ega, I mean, I'm picking him to lose.
1:08:25
I think his upside would be a knockout, but I don't really want a
1:08:30
lot of that either there's just other favors that I would go heavy on,
1:08:31
So I think underweight to EGA and then maybe in line with or slightly overweight
1:08:36
to Feeli's home seeing it. Yeah, no, we see it the same.
1:08:40
Like if I had twenty teams and somehow this fight and I love my
1:08:44
script and I have zero in this fight, I'd also be good with that
1:08:45
too. There's fourteen fights, this one, the first two fights of the
1:08:49
night. I just really don't like much Max one of those fighters on the
1:08:54
optimal preferably none. And it's a good start to the day here. So
1:08:57
yeah, I think it goes the distance, very close foot decision, and
1:09:01
yeah, you'd rather be holding a peey ticket at that point. That's white
1:09:05
on the car Man. Fourteen fights a lot to talk about. Let's hope
1:09:09
fingers crossed we keep all fourteen nine event time Joe Pifer, Jackermanson, Piper
1:09:15
minus two fifty five for Manson plus two to fifteen fights, minus three fifty
1:09:19
to finish Joe Pifer minus one eighty five inside the distance, Jack Ermanson plus
1:09:25
three seventy five and the pricing on this one nine K Pifer seventy two hundred
1:09:30
tre Manson, I think Pifer comes in as the chalkiest fighter on the card
1:09:34
fifty five sixty percent. Maybe, I don't know, there's still fourteen fights.
1:09:39
Just really the upper tier isn't great like Loma Devin Clark, there isn't
1:09:44
much competition that you really have to sacrifice playing Pifer. I think he rolls
1:09:47
man. He's dangerous, he's yeah, he got the younger fighter, the
1:09:51
faster fighter, the stronger fighter forre Manson slick down there, he's four great
1:09:57
competition. I think Pifer does what he wants to do, though he I
1:10:00
don't know if he hits harder than Francis everyone probably out there seeing those videos.
1:10:04
I'd rather take a punch from Piper than her or then Naganu. I'm
1:10:09
dying either way. But yeah, I think he just tracks him down,
1:10:12
takes the center of the octagon, and eventually puts it on the chin.
1:10:15
So I love Piper, love him for nine k. I'm not gonna make
1:10:19
a rule to be all in on this fight, but I and that's mainly
1:10:23
because like her Manson down below like it. Maybe Pifer can win and put
1:10:28
up one oh two. And if you fade this fight, you have a
1:10:31
chance to get different and get there. Mainly though, like I could have
1:10:35
sixty Piper fifteen her Manson because I want to be under her Manson since I
1:10:39
think he loses, but still at nine k, like even one hundred five
1:10:44
points, Like we know he did everything he needed in this fight and still
1:10:46
wasn't optimal because otherways outscored him. I can always see that play as well.
1:10:50
So not an all in fight, but I love Piper in this spot,
1:10:54
we'll be underweight her Manson. What do you got? Uh? Yeah,
1:10:58
I don't. I don't disagree with the breakdown, but I'm gonna pick
1:11:00
her Manson in this one more so or the line talked me into it.
1:11:05
Piferre definitely gonna be the more dangerous striker in the first and second round.
1:11:12
I don't know if he's gonna be a more dangerous striker after if he gets
1:11:15
out of the second round. To be honest with you, I don't know
1:11:15
what he's gonna look like if if this fight gets extended, He's also gonna
1:11:19
be the stronger and more imposing wrestler early in the fight. But if this
1:11:28
fight gets extended, like give me her Manson in the third, fourth and
1:11:30
fifth round. If it gets there, and that could be striking or it
1:11:33
could be him getting takedowns and dominating Pifer on the ground. I think that
1:11:38
if her Manson wins, he's scoring ninety plus points and he's on the optimal
1:11:42
lineup, whereas if Pifer wins, he might be able to he might score
1:11:47
less, he might have a lower ceiling than her Manson in my in my
1:11:51
opinion, but at the same time, he has like sixty five percent chance
1:11:57
to win inside the distance, and I don't hate matching that, even even
1:12:02
though I'm picking him to lose. But I would definitely go all in on
1:12:06
her Manson. That's a little high for me, to be honest. I'll
1:12:09
probably go like, damn near closer to fifty fifties how I'm seeing it,
1:12:14
which will put me I'm guessing slightly underweight to Pifer right in line, but
1:12:17
it should put me overweight to her Manson, and that might even be off.
1:12:20
Like if I'm making one lineup, I'm starting my lineup probably with her
1:12:24
Manson and getting to other underdogs, I mean getting to other favorites, because
1:12:28
I do think Pifer is the highest owned fighter on the entire card, and
1:12:32
I don't even know that it matters what OKI's line is. Like, if
1:12:34
he comes out here minus six hundred, Piper's still probably gonna be a bigger
1:12:39
favorite. So I'm fine getting away from that. And it's just more so
1:12:43
like this is the biggest step up. He has big power. That's the
1:12:47
only special thing about his striking. He has really good body shots. He's
1:12:50
he can land really hard on the chin, but he's not putting you away
1:12:55
with volume. He doesn't have any you know, crazy angles that he's thrown
1:12:59
at pure power, and that's the same thing with this wrestling too. He's
1:13:01
just gonna out muscle guys, get him to the ground, he'd get him
1:13:04
in that arm triangle and put him away. But if he is getting takedowns
1:13:08
in this fight and her Manson's not going away, I think Pifer slows down
1:13:13
quicker than Hermanson does. And if Pifer slows down, I think Hermanson just
1:13:15
puts it on him and he could score one hundred and twenty plus points.
1:13:18
He's actually scored one hundred and ten points I believe, five times in his
1:13:23
career, So even as the underdog, I think he's probably four times more
1:13:27
likely to hit that one hundred and ten point Mark than like Loma would be.
1:13:30
Uh. So I'm just gonna be all in on this fight, but
1:13:33
I might just flip flip it and go like sixty percent her Manson forty percent
1:13:38
Pip or something like that, because I just don't feel as good as Vegas
1:13:41
does or as good as the field is gonna feel about Pifer. Yeah,
1:13:45
no, may, I think Pifer will be the highest on, regardless what
1:13:48
Okie's line is, regardless of anything, any fight canceled, et cetera.
1:13:54
I had, I had her Manson as underweight. Maybe I'll go back into
1:13:57
sleigh playing because there's still the EGA feeling. There's multiple fights that I didn't
1:14:00
love. I'm gonna keep a close eye on her Manson's ownership. I don't
1:14:04
think it's gonna be too crazy, though. There's enough cheaper dogs down here.
1:14:09
Piper will be high enough owned where. Yeah, maybe I'll change that
1:14:13
and get at least maybe around the field her Manson and then fade some of
1:14:16
those other fights or underweight those fights instead. But I'm definitely on Piper.
1:14:20
He's gonna be really high on though, So it's no hot take fifty five
1:14:25
to sixty percent. I wouldn't be surprised yet, But as always, our
1:14:28
ownership projections, fight rankings, everything will be up by Friday. Always keep
1:14:32
a close eye on that. If anything changes, like a fight gets canceled.
1:14:36
Saturday, we'll go on discord. We're gonna be at the course at
1:14:40
waste Management. We'll have our phone. Hopefully service is fine, take MMA
1:14:44
chat, hope, excuse me. Hopefully don't have to worry about any cancelations
1:14:49
though, fingers crossed fourteen fights, man, even thirteen thirteen's fine too,
1:14:54
But this looks like a very good DFS card. Like last week, only
1:14:58
two chops for the flagship last week. Wouldn't be surprised to see a number
1:15:02
similar to that as well. Again, I'm in May content, NBA,
1:15:06
I'll be going live in a little over an hour with Rio today, NHL
1:15:11
going on, PGA starts tomorrow. How doovership a nation dot Com super Bowl
1:15:15
Sunday, weekly, monthly, six month, annual packages. Big Marley can't
1:15:19
wait for this weekend, man, Any final thoughts? No, Man,
1:15:24
I'm pumped. It's gonna be. It's gonna be an awesome weekend just all
1:15:28
around. I think that this we gotta find a way to watch this like
1:15:30
we're going up to the casino that night. Yeah, well it'll be honest,
1:15:32
you on the phone or something, it's not okay cool. Yeah,
1:15:34
I gotta find a way to watch this car because I do think it would
1:15:36
be. Yeah, so looking forward to it. Awesome weekend. We got
1:15:44
fights, golf, super Bowl, so you can't ask for a better weekend
1:15:47
than that. And I'll be out there in Arizona, so what it will
1:15:50
be a lot better than here as well. I cannot wait. Yeah,
1:15:54
I don't know where you are now. I will say it's still gonna be
1:15:56
sweatshir at sweatpans. It's dreary, man. It's in the fifties, leaveless
1:16:00
weather. Right there, We're good, Yeah, sleepless weather. You Maid's
1:16:04
Campbell, all the guys from up north gonna be enjoying fifty and cloudy.
1:16:09
All right, that's enough though, see on the NBA show title, Yes
1:16:12
you will our fifteen. I will be with Rio. I'm the Mayo Media
1:16:15
Network, like on the way out, subscribe on the way out and again
1:16:18
next week's card usc two ninety eight, probably same time on this Wednesday.
1:16:24
So I'll be heading down there to La I guess up there it is good
1:16:28
luck everybody. Let's see some ship in nation logos up top, a lot
1:16:31
of sports, a lot of money to be made. Be safe out there,
1:16:35
Let's make some cheese. Big Marley, untitled talent, have a good
1:16:39
one. Good luck, Hans Nether Hans must have them still, Mother an
1:17:11
fast and then any fast most hand still