Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 209: Tariffs, Brazil, and Beef: How Agriculture Became a Bargaining Chip with Emma Coffman

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209: Tariffs, Brazil, and Beef: How Agriculture Became a Bargaining Chip with Emma Coffman · CattleUSA Daily

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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the update
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  shaping agriculture today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture, here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Emma, welcome back to the
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  podcast. I am very excited to talk to you
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  today. I actually think so.
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  We're to everyone listening, We're recording 2 podcast
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  episodes today because Emma and I's schedule is absolutely
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  insane. And on the last episode, I was
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  talking about how we were going to like this was going to go out
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  the week after Thanksgiving. I actually think I might be
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  moving things around. So if in two weeks you hear an
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  episode, Emma and I talking about the week after
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  Thanksgiving, please ignore that.
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  I don't know if this one's going to go up next week or the week
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  after. Either way, we're recording this
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  the day before Thanksgiving because today I want to talk
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  about, we decided after we got done talking about M cool, that
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  I want to talk about Trump's lift on tariffs on Brazil, what
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  that means for our AG producers, a little bit of history
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  background, talking about AG being used as a bargaining chip,
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  what that means for us as a country and agriculture, all of
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  these things. And yeah, so this might go up
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  next week. So to all of you listeners out
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  there, sorry for taking you on a little bit of whirlwind, but our
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  schedules are crazy. And I think that this one is
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  probably a little bit more time restricted, not restricted, time
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  sensitive. So this yeah, next week actually
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  now so. Hey, it's Turkey and Turkey.
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  Season Thanksgiving. Yes, exactly.
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  I hope you ate beef for Thanksgiving.
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  Hope you all had a great one. And if you're hearing this in
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  two weeks, sorry, but you know, here we are.
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  So Emma, would you like to open us up and kind of share a little
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  bit about what is happening? What got what happened on
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  November 13th with Trump like lifting the tariffs, Why were
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  they there? Like just things like that and
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  we can get a go into it from there.
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  Yeah, this has definitely been the season of tariffs, man.
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  I tell you, we just been kind of feeling like being a little
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  whiplash this year in agriculture.
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  And you're not alone. Doesn't.
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  I don't think it really matters what industry you're in.
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  I feel like every part of the ag industry has been affected at
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  some point. So, yeah, we just heard that
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  Trump is lifting his tariffs. And if you watched any kind of
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  like social media deal, RFDTV has a really good Instagram.
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  But I will say that it's just like, sometimes it's straight to
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  the point, which is good. But if you just read the caption
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  or you just read the the post itself and not actually the
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  caption or the back story, it can be a little misleading.
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  And that's just not, that's not just RFD, that's every account
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  out there in existence because our attention span is the size
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  of a Nat, but mine included sometimes.
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  So with that being said, yeah, Trump has go ahead and lifted
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  his tariffs on Brazilian beef. And if you hear that, you go, Oh
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  my gosh, that's awful. Why would he do that?
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  But Trump doesn't care about America, etcetera.
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  And we have to remember that the rise.
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  In. Those tariffs to begin with was
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  a political move to try to get other tariffs down.
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  Remember that Trump's one of his big thing this year and we've
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  been seeing across the board is him trying to get equal trade.
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  There's a lot of countries out there in the world that were
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  taking advantage of our markets and maybe some past political
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  leaders decisions and agreements.
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  And when you've got a 200 three, 100% uptick of tariffs that we
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  buy from other countries, but yet they're not paying the same
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  thing or very little if anything tariff wise on our exported
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  items, there's a discrepancy there.
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  And so I think Trump's, his idea, just from my perspective,
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  is trying to equal out the playing field and then be able
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  to make some negotiations and agreements for maybe some
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  precious minerals or oil rights, whatever you have.
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  It just seems to be that agriculture is the bargaining
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  chip that gets picked up a lot because everyone has to eat
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  whether you like it or not, whether you eat beef, whether
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  you don't. All the vegans out there in the
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  world, guess what? You still.
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  Have to eat and a lot of byproducts come from animal,
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  animals too. So yeah, Trump, Trump lifted
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  that. But that was, oh, what was it,
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  Lauren? Mid-july that Trump.
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  Yeah, he added on a 40%. So it's not that there's zero
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  tariffs. It is he just took back the 40%
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  that he had put on a few months. Ago, Yeah, absolutely.
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  I think that's important to remember that we're back to that
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  I think 26% tariff that we were at previous to July.
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  So in July there were the retaliatory tariffs that got put
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  on Brazilian beef at that point in time and I mean a ton of
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  other products. July was a very busy month that
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  we had. We had a very busy busy
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  beginning to the year. So that tariff got but on they
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  were already at I think 26%. And so then that tariff got
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  added on as a bargaining chip type of situation.
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  It was retaliatory. There were a lot of other
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  political factors happening. And so 40% got added in
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  mid-july. Well, now on November 13th, that
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  40% got taken back off. So we're just where we were back
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  in June back with that 26%. There's still tariffs, there's
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  still a lot of it, but I think that this is a bigger discussion
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  on not only AG being used as a bargaining chip, but also just
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  on our supply and demand and how as USB like products, we need to
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  be looking at this as like, yes, we want to be independent.
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  We want to really focus on the American beef supply, keeping
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  what we have here, like all of these things, right?
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  Like we want US beef producers to be the ones supplying the
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  grocery stores. But we've gotten so Dang good at
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  our jobs that we can't do that anymore.
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  We can't take these really high quality beef products that we
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  are producing as American producers and validate grinding
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  them up into hamburger because that's where the real concern is
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  right now. It is in our lean beef products,
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  it's in our hamburger, it's in our just kind of off cuts or
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  things like that, that we're seeing this increase in price.
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  And that's what consumers care about.
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  Consumers care about like, yes, steak prices have gone up too,
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  but consumers care that their ground beef is expensive right
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  now and that that's gone up because that's where you're
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  heading the middle and lower classes the most.
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  And that's where the most of that economy shift gets felt.
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  And so I think it's a bigger discussion on AG being used as a
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  bargaining chip, which I mean, every industry is used as a
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  bargaining chip in some way, shape or form.
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  But I know that as AG producers, we've been a little sick of it
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  the last few weeks. It's just kind of all come at a
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  really rough time. And then also just a bigger
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  discussion on why we import and what that looks like in the fact
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  that like we're not importing from Mexico right now because of
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  the border being closed. And so we don't have that lean
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  beef coming in and being fed and being processed here in the
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  United States. And so we've had to start
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  filling it somewhere and going back to Brazil.
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  And I mean, there's so much other, there's just a massive
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  political discussion we could have on this.
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  But just from other high level aspects, it's the bargaining
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  chip and it's the fact that we do, we do need lean beef right
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  now. Do we want to be a country that
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  is reliant on that lean beef from other countries?
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  No. We I mean that's nothing, right.
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  Like we don't want to be energy dependent on other countries.
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  We also don't want to be dependent on them for our food
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  products, for our beef products when we have that ability to
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  grow it here in the United States.
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  But at the same time it's that it's that ebb and flow, it's
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  that give and take. We are in a down market right
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  now as far as our supply goes. We still have great supply here
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  in the United States, but as far as our lean beef supply goes, it
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  is lower And so just. Having that broader.
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  Discussion as well. Yeah.
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  And you know, we talked about the herd inventory numbers, but
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  we also have to remember that the pounds per animal is
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  significantly higher than what I they keep comparing it to what,
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  the 1970s. So we are the most efficient
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  beef producer in the entire world.
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  So hats off to you be producers. That has a lot to do with
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  genetics and nutrition and the care of animals.
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  So really hats off to you. But we also have to remember
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  that we have a massive, massive population here.
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  And I think a lot of times we compare ourselves to other
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  countries. Like, I think Europe is probably
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  one of the top countries or regions of the world that we get
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  compared to. And Europe doesn't have a drop
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  in the bucket compared to our land size to compare to our
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  population size. And so while I think a lot of
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  people say, oh, we need to be fully sustainable on ourselves,
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  yeah, I I think in a perfect world that'd be the case.
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  But let's be honest. We have an increasing expansion
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  of urbanization. You're taking away the land that
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  we can grow food on. You have some states cough,
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  cough California that are putting in regulations and
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  legislation that restrict the productivity and the
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  sustainability of our beef production systems.
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  And honestly, we're dealing with an environment right now that we
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  had a drought that we have a residual effects from that being
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  low inventory numbers for cattle herd sizes.
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  We have, like you said, the closure because of the screw New
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  World screw worm in Mexico. So a lot of these cattle that
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  we're coming into the feed yard coming from Mexico, there's just
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  not there anymore. So I think that we also as a
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  consumers need to keep in mind that we are also grading prime
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  at a higher percentage than in the history of beef production.
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  That's again that's off to producers.
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  We have incredible genetics out here.
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  We've got incredible people that are spending time and money and
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  resources in order to improve those carcass data and quality,
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  which is great. But the fact of the matter is,
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  is that we shouldn't be grinding up our ultra prime rib eyes into
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  into ground beef. So if we do have, you know,
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  those off cuts, those off falls, if we have a market which a lot
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  of time is Asia in that region of the world, Mexico also Korea
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  is one of the locations too that is willing to pay a premium for
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  our products that consumers aren't going to be willing to
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  pay for or they just don't eat ship it on over, you know, we
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  talked about exporting more beef than we do.
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  There we. Import more beef than we export
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  or however that statistic goes. Yeah, you have to look at the
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  types of cuts. So I highly recommend people
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  looking at the meat in the meat federation, US Meat Export
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  Federation, they actually break it down from like cuts and and
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  just total beef statistics. That's really informative.
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  USDA also has a lot of information on their export
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  data. So I think that right now we see
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  it with China, we've seen in the soybean market, we've seen it in
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  the corn market, we've seen it in the cotton, sorghum and
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  especially beef this year. We've been very active with the
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  beef side. And I think Trump has always
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  playing his chips in maybe a manner that we don't get until
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  we look back at it and like, oh, OK, that makes sense.
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  But it is it is a very jostling time in our industry.
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  But we also have to remember that we had a massive change of
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  administration. We had a massive change in our
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  USDA administration. We knew that some changes were
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  going to happen. I think we, I think it's just a
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  little like drink have a fire hydrant versus a water hose
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  right now when it comes to change.
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  Yeah, absolutely. And I think like looking back on
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  Brazil and specifically them, we, we had a lot of issues with
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  Brazil for a while and it all goes back to like, and I mean
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  it's hot topic too, because Brazil surpassed us in beef
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  production this year as well. So I mean, it's a very
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  competitive market out there. But you look at why in the past
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  were these tariffs and just regulations put on Brazil in the
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  1st place. And I mean, it goes back to foot
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  and mouth disease traceability in general and the lack thereof.
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  And also it goes into just our overall oversight ability, like
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  the USDA does not inspect every single pound that comes in.
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  And so our oversight ability and the quality ability and
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  everything else that goes into that I think is important to
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  take into consideration as well. We've already saw the impact
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  that this had on the board this last week.
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  And I think that we're going to continue to see some impact come
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  in and some ebb and flow, letting the market do what the
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  markets going to do and react how it can in this situation.
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  But I think that my biggest concern with this is now that
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  these retaliatory tariffs are lifted, we're going to see an
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  increase in Brazilian meat coming back to the United
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  States. And this goes back to our
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  earlier discussion, Emma, about M Cool.
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  And the fact that my issue as a producer is that we can import
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  beef from Brazil. It can be repackaged and labeled
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  as a product of the USA. And that is where my biggest
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  qualm comes in. And the fact that now that these
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  retaliatory tariffs are lifted, we're going to see an increase
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  in Brazilian beef starting to be imported back into the United
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  States, which is necessary. We need it for the lean cuts for
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  everything else that it is offering us into our market that
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  we do need. But at the same time, I'm not OK
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  with it being labeled a product of the United States.
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  Yeah. And if anybody and I doubt
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  Brooke Rollins or President Trump is going to hear me say
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  this, but I think this would be a really, really good
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  opportunity for the administration, both with Brooke
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  Rollins and then also Trump. And honestly, like the Packers,
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  you know, like, this is a really good opportunity to shine a
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  light. And maybe we're missing
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  something. Maybe I'm missing something.
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  Look, if I'm wrong, I'll be the first person to say I'm wrong.
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  I just have to like sit with that information and have a lot
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  of data and like back story and backlogs kind of given to me to
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  make that kind of change of position.
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  But if there is some kind of information that we're missing,
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  people are asking for the information, people are asking
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  why people want to know. So I really wouldn't.
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  I hope that with these, these upcoming changes that there's a
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  little more visibility and trans transparency behind some of
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  these decisions that get made. You know, I get it.
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  It's, it's a, it's a complicated process.
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  It's a complicated thing. And there's a lot of, I'm sure
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  there's a lot of moving wheels that we're not even aware of
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  that go on behind the scenes. But I think this would be a
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  really good time to pull a Wizard of Oz, pull back the
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  curtain and like, let's get a good look because I think you
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  would have a lot more support from the industry if we had a
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  better idea what was going on and not this communication gap
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  and a wall really no pun intended about Trump, but this
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  wall really between the two sides.
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  So, yeah, it'll be interesting to see what what goes on.
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  I knew know that prices for cattle we any commodity goes up
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  and down. We knew that these high prices
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  weren't going to stay there forever.
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  I think it does give some leverage back to the Packer to
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  maybe start pushing these prices down a little bit.
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  So yeah, it's going to be really interesting remaining of 2025.
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  It definitely is. I'm really praying as we go into
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  2026 that we can chill with this like breaking news segment that
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  we're really pushing right now. Like if we could just calm down
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  on that a little bit. And I think, like going back to
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  what you said to Emma, all we're asking for is transparency when
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  it comes to these decisions. Because if we're going to be
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  used as a bargaining chip and our livelihoods are going to be
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  put on the line, I need you to be transparent with me on why
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  and how that's going to affect me right now.
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  And then what the long term plan on this is.
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  Because there are situations where I, as a producer am OK
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  with feeling a little bit of pain right now in order for our
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  market to have that long term stability, that long term growth
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  and be able to continue doing what we're doing in the long
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  term for a little bit of short term hurt.
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  If I know why, if I don't know why and I'm sitting here as a
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  producer saying like, what the hell?
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  Yeah, like a lot of us are sitting here saying what the
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  hell right now. And rightfully so because
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  there's not the transparency behind a lot of these decisions.
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  We can sit here and we can speculate and we can try and
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  figure out what's going on in the heads of the people in our
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  administration making these decisions, but we can't.
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  And so I think that it again, it goes back to wanting that
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  transparency and hopefully, for the love of God, can we go into
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  2026 with a little bit less breaking news in the
• 17:25
  agricultural sector. I would really love it.
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  But Emma, any other closing thoughts as we round out the
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  podcast, I think. You, I think you wrapped it up
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  pretty well. So yeah, wish this let's take a
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  different industry, but I would just say no matter what the
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  markets do remain hopeful. I know that agriculture is a
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  very difficult business to be in, but I know me as a consumer
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  a extremely appreciative of all sides of the industry,
• 17:53
  especially the beef industry and just keep on trucking.
• 17:58
  You know we, we believe in you. So absolutely, absolutely.
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  Well, Emma, thank you for your time today.
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  To all of our listeners, thank you for listening to another
• 18:06
  episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
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  We will see you all next time on another episode.
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  Have a good one y'all.