Latest / Toadstool Sports / Sunday BEST BETS | Ugly Board | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/21/26

Transcript

Sunday BEST BETS | Ugly Board | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/21/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm. Man, a hole in
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: your chase. Black coffee on the felt Man, you look
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: like a menace. Three teen Parlette turned the dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head. Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man. But don't you go quiet. Don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor. Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: in somebody for show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: No, hold on, hold on, nothing nice now, hold on,
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: hold on, let me.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Put it all. Get the crown, hold on, hold on
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: and stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Now, what's up? Birdbody?
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: It's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports for Sunday,
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: June twenty. First, we went two and one on the
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: show yesterday. Netherlands was an easy win to start out
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: the day as we got the soccer match right, they're
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: up to nothing like eighteen minutes.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Into the game.
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: It's like, all right, yeah, this is gonna win. Five
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: to one win against my ancestors of Sweden. What can
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: you do, Netherlands, They're clearly the better teams, So that
• 1:58
  Speaker 4: was the right call. Milwaukee Atlanta under seven and a
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: half was correct. The under first five, I believe also
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: was correct in that game. It it hit seven though,
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: of you, I know, primarily the number out there was seven,
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: so a lot of people may have pushed on that,
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: and it was kind of bullshit. Atlanta won on a
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: walk off two run home run by Albi's Albiez in
• 2:22
  Speaker 4: the ninth inning. Kind kind of bullshit. I mean, it
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: was a I think it was a three to one
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: game in the eighth inning or something, so really it
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: shouldn't have even gotten that close. But that was still
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: the under. And then Freddy Peralta, I don't know what
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: is wrong.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: With that guy. He owes us money man.
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: Freddy Peralta just completely ruined the other under. He gave
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: up ten runs before this before the third inning was done.
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: Absolutely ridiculous. Whatever what can you do? Sanchez held up
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: his end of the bargain in that game. Peralta not
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: even close. So we move on to today. I don't
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: like the baseball board today. It's very, very difficult. I'm
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: gonna give out one play and it's really, I think,
• 3:05
  Speaker 4: kind of on the razors edge, but I hope we
• 3:07
  Speaker 4: can get it. I'm gonna give out a WNBA play
• 3:10
  Speaker 4: and hope that we can get that right.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: It's kind of a unique situation. So hopefully we can
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: get that right and then.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna give out a World Cup play. It's a
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: little bit of a different approach. Hopefully it's gonna be right.
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's just I feel like I have to
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: find some way of playing one of the best teams
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: in the entire tournament in a very good spot to
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: play them. So we're going to one of the other
• 3:33
  Speaker 4: markets to do that and hoping that it can just happen.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Let's get into it, man.
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: I know I started a little bit late, and I
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: gotta get out of here at some point too, so
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: hopefully we can get this done. I'm gonna try Cincinnati
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: at Yankees. This is the rubber match of the series.
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: Is the end of the series here. Both teams have
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: won one game the series. Cincinnati with a ten to
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: two bounce back win yesterday. Not a good game for
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: the Yankees. I think it was Will Warren in that game.
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: Whatever could be a bounce back for the Yankees.
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: But the Yankees have.
• 4:07
  Speaker 4: To go up against Cincinnati's one really legitimate pitcher today though,
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: so it's not gonna be easy for the Yankees to
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: get the job done. And they're a very small favorite here,
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: and you know when you have a team, that's when
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: you have the Yankees listed. Is that small of a favorite.
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: It almost looks way too easy to play the Yankees here.
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: So I'm gonna talk about the starting pitching matchup there
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: in a minute.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: Yankees did use only two.
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: Guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Cincinnati's bullpen is a disaster.
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: They used three relievers yesterday. They were fine yesterday, but
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: they are not a bullpen. I would rely on their
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: number twenty nine out of thirty and whip not a
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: good bullpen. Yankees are number nine, so the Yankees have
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: the bullpen edge. Yankees have the offensive edge number two
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: in offense arranged by ops. They also are I think
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: the best home offense still based on run score game.
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: Cincinnati has not been very good offensively either, even with
• 5:04
  Speaker 4: the ten runs yesterday, they got their number twentieth, so
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: that's not good. But Cincinnati may be able to compete
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: in this game because Chase Burns is pitching. As I mentioned,
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: he is definitely their best starter. Two point oh one
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: ERA one point two Whip really good stuff here. Home
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: road splits basically are completely insignificant. He's coming off a
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: five inning shutout of the Mets, but it is the Mets,
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: not a good offense. Burns has faced some pretty weak
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: offenses recently, so he is gonna have to step up
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: in class here to face the Yankees, and that is
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: kind of my concern with them, because generally he's good.
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: He's got a really low hit rate, his walk rate
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: is fine, his strike gout rate is high as well.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: He's a strong pitcher, dude.
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: He could go out there and give you a good
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: outing against anybody. But when you're used to pitching against
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: these weak offenses and now you have to face the Yankees,
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: not really an easy task.
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: And the Yankees have seen him once.
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: Before for at least six of their batters have faced
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: him fourteen at bats and Burns did not have success
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: four to twenty nine batting average fourteen to twenty nine ops.
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: I know, it's a really small sample size, and I'm
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: not gonna really say that I think Burns is gonna
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: be awful here, because I don't.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: But the Yankees have been able to hit him in
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: the past.
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: He does have five strikeouts and no walks against them, though,
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: so his command was good against them. I lean towards
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: him still pitching well, because generally he is going to
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: pitch well, but this is not one of the easier
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: matchups for him. ESPN has the Yankees listed as having
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: Elmer Rodriguez come back up to make this start, but
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: I don't think that's what's happening.
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: Uh oh, no it is.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: I guess when I looked at the bord earlier, it
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: was Garrett Cole. But it is not going to be
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: Garrett Cole. It will be Elmer Rodriguez, the other e Rod.
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: And you know what, we should have known that because
• 6:52
  Speaker 4: if it was Garrett Cole here, the Yankees would obviously
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: be a bigger favorite than this. I think if it
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: was Coal, you'd probably see the Yankees at like minus
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: one point fifty probably might as yeah, probably something like that,
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: even if it is Burns opposing them. But this is
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: the best starting pitching matchup the Reds are gonna get
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: in the series, although Yesterday's was one that they definitely
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: had a chance to win, and obviously they did. I
• 7:16
  Speaker 4: don't trust Elma Rodriguez, man, if he's gonna make the
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: start here. He's a really really thin pitcher, kind of
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: kind of strange physical attributes here, really tall and really thin,
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: which he needs to bulk up. Man, That's what I
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: gotta say, so you can throw harder.
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: But he's young.
• 7:36
  Speaker 4: He's made some appearances this year, but he hasn't been
• 7:39
  Speaker 4: that good. Four point one five VR but a one
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: point eighty five whip is bad. Five point seven to
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: nine e RA at home not good. He's only made
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: three appearances, but it's been against weak offenses Texas twice
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: and the Mets. The Reds are probably a little bit
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: better than both of those teams, even though they're not great.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: Rodriguez also has more walks than strikeouts, so not a
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: lot to like here from him. Reds haven't seen him,
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: so there is that he has a little bit of
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: an unfamiliarity edge. But you have to give the Reds
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching edge.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Year.
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: I would not give them the bullpen edge. But I
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: think the way to look at this game is probably
• 8:16
  Speaker 4: Reds first five. But I don't really want to do
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: it because Burns. I don't like his matchup numbers and
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: that just kind of does scare me away a little
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: bit in his recent performances against really weak offenses. The
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: Yankees are public, of course, because they're laying basically close
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: to a pick them here sixty four percent of tickets
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: on them fifty to fifty.
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: On the cash.
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: Though, if you play the Reds like I would not
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: include their bullpen as you know, so first five Reds probably.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: Is what makes the most sense in this game.
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: The money's also hitting the over in this game, which
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: does make some sense if you buy into Burns matchup
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: numbers not being that good. Plus Cincinnati's bullpen is not
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: that good. And if you think the Yankees are gonna
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: have a hard time with their pitching staff here over
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: makes some sense here. The total is not really high
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: at eight and a half, so something to keep in mind.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee at Atlanta.
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: Atlanta's on the verge of a sweep pier, so you
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: might get extra effort out of Milwaukee here. Both games
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: in the series have been low scoring. Atlanta won both
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: by one run. We got the underwright yesterday. It looked
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: like Milwaukee was about to win that game yesterday. They
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: had their closer in, but they I think they overextended him.
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: They brought in mcguil like. I think they brought him
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: out to start the eighth inning in that game, and
• 9:31
  Speaker 4: I was like, oh God, like what are they doing?
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: So Atlanta wound up getting the walk off home run
• 9:36
  Speaker 4: I believe against him in the ninth inning. But whatever,
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: Atlanta are they gonna look ahead here? I don't know
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: about that. They are playing who are they? They're playing
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: San Diego next. It is an ESPN game though tomorrow night.
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: But I don't know if they're gonna overlook Milwaukee. Maybe
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: a little bit, just because they've already won the series,
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: Probably get a little bit extra effort out of Milwaukee.
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee does not exactly have a good starter on the
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: mound today to get the job done for them, though
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: they used three relief pitchers yesterday Atlanta used three as well.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens are good.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: Atlanta is the number one bullpen, Milwaukee is number eleven,
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: but they are pretty good. Atlanta is number six in
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: offense right now and the Brewers are ten, so we
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: have some pretty capable offenses. These are two good teams.
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: They're both highly likely to make the playoffs. Robert Gasser
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: is pitching for Milwaukee, though, so that is kind of
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: a problem because he's not that good. Four point eight
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: to eighty RA one point three to eight whip is
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: still not great. He's been ugly on the road eight
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: Roady Ray. He's not a guy that you want to
• 10:42
  Speaker 4: trust if you're Milwaukee and you're trying to avoid a sweep.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: Here. He's been okay.
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: This month, seventeen to five, strike out walk ratio eray
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: in the low fours, including a start against the A's
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: on the road, and that's the one start where he
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: got kind of beaten up for four home runs. He
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: kind of got to give him a pass for that
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: because that was one of those A's stadium is that
• 11:03
  Speaker 4: was in that Vegas stadium I'm pretty sure too, so
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: that was a really difficult pitching environment. So Gasser has
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: actually been better otherwise in his other two starts, but
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: they were against San Francisco and Cleveland, so those are
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: significantly lesser offenses than the Braves. I am not sure
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: that he's gonna do well here. The Braves only have
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: one guy who's faced him, Joey bart is two for two,
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: often with two singles, no walks, no strikeouts, obviously, But yeah,
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: I don't really expect too much out of Gaser here.
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: Bryce Elder is pitching for the Braves. He is having
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: a good season, three point one five ERA, one point
• 11:39
  Speaker 4: one four whip, good at home two point four to
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: one home ra so his home road splits look good here.
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: Kind of a red flag though his last outing he
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: got bombed by the Mets in his last down it
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: was a road game, though his worst outings basically have
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: all come on the road. But the fact that was
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: against the Mets, it's not a good sign. I mean,
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: that's not a good offense. But he also was bad
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: on the road against the Red Sox and then he
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: bounced back fine in his next couple homes starts, So
• 12:07
  Speaker 4: I do still kind of lean towards him pitching well here, Elder. Overall,
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: he's got a pretty low hit rate, his walk rate
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: is reasonable, and his strike out rate is a little
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: bit low, but that's just not his game.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: Really.
• 12:21
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee doesn't have great numbers off him. In fifty seven
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: at bats two forty six average allowed, six sixty four ohps,
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: twelve to four strikeout walk ratio. So he's been all
• 12:31
  Speaker 4: right against Milwaukee. He's had the upper hand against them. Really,
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: I think I have to lean Atlanta here. I know
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: the money's not agreeing with it, though Milwaukee does have
• 12:40
  Speaker 4: the motivational edge here, but it just does not look
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: like an ideal pitching matchup for them at all.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: The money is back in Milwaukee.
• 12:48
  Speaker 4: Atlanta's got sixty seven percent of the tickets eighty eight
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on Milwaukee, though minus won twenty
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: something is the price on Atlanta.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: You can do what you want with it. I'm not
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: playing the game obviously.
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: The totals at nine money coming in on the over
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: so it looks like the professional money seems to think
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: that both starters are gonna have issues in this game.
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure about that. It's a pass for me, though.
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: White Sox at Detroit. Detroit is on the verge of
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: a sweep here.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: Believe it or not.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: They've won each game in low scoring fashion, which is
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: interesting that Detroit has been able to stifle the White Sox.
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: But scooble pitch Game one and the Troy Melton I
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: believe pitched yesterday, and like I predicted in the Houston
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: series when he didn't actually wind up pitching, he did
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: pitch well yesterday if that was him. So I gotta
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: look at the box score because sometimes I just say
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: that assuming that he did pitch. I think he did, though,
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: because I know he was scheduled. White Sox have been
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: the better team this year though, and they're on the
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: verge of getting swept here, so they might have a
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: little extra motivation. Detroit is going up against the Yankees tomorrow.
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: It looks like Garrett Cole is pitching that game instead.
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: Tomorrow could be a look ahead for Detroit. That's gonna
• 14:02
  Speaker 4: be a big series against the Yankees. But do you
• 14:05
  Speaker 4: think they're gonna overlook the White Sox at all, even
• 14:07
  Speaker 4: if they've already beaten them twice? To me, probably not,
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: Because the White Socks are ahead of them in the division.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: I think this is still a game that matters. It's
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: a big game. Detroit only used two guys out of
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: the bullpen yesterday. White Sox used a bunch. They used five.
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: The White Sox are definitely at a bullpen disadvantage here.
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: Detroit's number nineteen in bullpen and their eras below four,
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: so yeah, they're kind of a mediocre bullpen not horrible, and.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: The White Sox not quite as good.
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: The White Sox are eighteenth, so they are actually ranked
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: ahead of them, but White Sox era is worse. I
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: think Detroit is the better bullpen, Plus they're more rested here,
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: so I think they have an edge there. In this game,
• 14:49
  Speaker 4: White Sox have the better offense, though they're number nine
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: Detroit number twenty one, so that balances that out. Both
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: starting pitchers could actually do well here. Martin is pitching
• 15:01
  Speaker 4: for the White Sox. He's had a good season, but
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: his numbers went way up because he just got absolutely
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: wrecked by the Yankees in his last start. Three point
• 15:08
  Speaker 4: three to one ERA, one point one to nine whips.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: Still good numbers here, but his road numbers have been
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: an issue five point h nine road ERA, but a
• 15:17
  Speaker 4: lot of it is because he got bombed by the
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: Yankees in his last downing that was that's a single
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: outing that will ruin your numbers. He gave up nine
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: or and runs and three to third innings. Maybe you
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: got to give him a pass for that, but he
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: was bad two starts prior. He was actually bad as
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: well against Minnesota, so he is actually struggling this month,
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: although he's kind of alternated good and bad starts here
• 15:38
  Speaker 4: going back to late May, so that would mean that
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: he should bounce back a pitch well here, and he
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: is stepping way down in class after facing the Braves
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: and doing well and facing the Yankees and not doing well.
• 15:51
  Speaker 4: He draws Detroit here, and that is not a good offense. Overall,
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: Martin's still putting up good numbers on the season. Those
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: strikeout rates are pretty good hit ray. His somewhat low
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: walk rate is pretty low as well, so across the board,
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: still good numbers against Detroit are good. In fifty eight
• 16:08
  Speaker 4: at bats to forty one average allowed, six eighty one
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: ohps eleven to five strike out walk ratio. That's not great,
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: but the rest of the numbers are pretty good, so
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: I think Martin certainly is capable of a bounce back
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: here against one of the weaker offenses. Keeter Montero is
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: pitching for the Tigers. He's having a good season, three
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: point six to seventy RA, one point h two whip
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: is definitely solid. He's been slightly worse at home, but
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: not by much so his home road splits are pretty insignificant.
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: I don't know what happened to him in his last outing.
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: He only went one in a third innings against Houston.
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: He was shaky, but I don't think they would have
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: taken him out of that game unless like there was
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: there might have been a rain delayer or no, they
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: couldn't have been because it's Houston, they have a roof. Honestly,
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: I don't know what happened in that game, if he
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: got injured, or why they would have decided to take
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: him out. I have no idea, but I think he's
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: gonna give you a full start here. I think he's
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: capable of pitching well here. He's been decent on the season.
• 17:05
  Speaker 4: Like I said, he does have a low strikeout rate
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: though he's not really a strikeout pitcher, but he's got
• 17:09
  Speaker 4: a low hit rate. His walk rate is low as well,
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: so he's getting the job done. He's not putting guys
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: on base. He hasn't allowed more than four earned runs
• 17:16
  Speaker 4: in any outing, so he's keeping his team in these
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: games against the White Sox, he does actually have good
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: numbers and twenty five at bats. It's not a huge sample,
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: but pretty much all of their hitters have faced him
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: one sixty batting average, five to forty two oh ps,
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: three to two strikeout walk ratio not good, but again,
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: he doesn't strike guys out really, so I think both
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: pitchers are actually capable of going out there and doing well.
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: I think I would lean towards the first five under
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: in this game and the total for the full games
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: eight and a half, so I think you're looking at probably.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Four and a half.
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: Maybe on the first five you might be able to
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: find a four and a half. I don't know exactly
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: what the price is gonna be on it, but I
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: consider putting that on my card.
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: I just have some questions with him.
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: Martin really just does kind of worry me about the
• 18:04
  Speaker 4: form that he's in recently.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: It isn't great.
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I don't know what Montero is
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: gonna look like, how he's gonna respond to whatever the
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: hell that shortened outing was. I don't know if maybe
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: he had an injury. He wasn't listed as day to
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: day though, so I don't know what that was. Some
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: questions here. Money is actually backing the over fifty per
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: tickets seventy eight percent of the cash on the over.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: I would go first five under.
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: In that game, though both games have been low scoring
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: in the series at least, so if that trend continues,
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: Although sometimes I like to break the trend, you know,
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: because they think that can kind of skew the number
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: a little bit. When things have been going a certain way,
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: sometimes it doesn't happen in the next game. You know,
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: the money is backing the White Sox in that game
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: as well, fifty tickets ninety one percent of the cash
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: on them. The Tiger side is like a very slight
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: favorite here, So the money seems to like the better
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: team this year, the White Sox to get in there
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: and avoid the sweep there, I could see it happening.
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: I mean, Martin when he's at his best, is the
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: better pitcher out of the two.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: But I don't.
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: I really still don't like the White Sox bullpen though,
• 19:09
  Speaker 4: So I think if you choose a side here, I
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: think going first five makes sense. Well, I think if
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: you go Detroit, I think you should go full game. Actually,
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: I think if you go White Sox, you should go
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: first five.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: That would be my opinion. With that dirty sock. What's up?
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: Thanks for hanging out all right? Trying to get through
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: this quickly. Man San Francisco at Miami. San Francisco is
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: also trying to avoid a sweep here. Miami has won
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: both games in the series so far. Miami not sure
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: if they really have a look ahead. They're playing Texas
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: starting tomorrow. Most teams are playing tomorrow, by the way,
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: it's it's not one of those small Monday cards Tomorrow,
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: I think there are only four four excuse me, I
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: think only four teams are off tomorrow. San Francisco is
• 19:54
  Speaker 4: one of those teams that is off tomorrow. On the
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: service here, this looks like a big star Ay pitching
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: edge for San Francisco though, so you got San Francisco
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: trying to avoid the sweet Plus they have the better
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: pitcher here, so that is definitely tempting. You know, maybe
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: I should because this is not in my card right now,
• 20:12
  Speaker 4: maybe I should reconsider.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: Miami does have the better bullpen.
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: Miami did use a bunch of guys though the last
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: couple of days they use four relief pitchers. Yesterday, their
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: bullpen's not in good shape right now. San Francisco used three.
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: Miami has had a good bullpen though their ranked number
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: three and their era does back that up as well.
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: San Francisco twenty fifth, though I don't think they're that bad,
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: but they have not been a great bullpend this year.
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: Miami offensively is nineteenth, san Francisco's twelfth.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: But you know me, I don't buy it.
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: I think San Francisco's numbers are skewed from a few
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: outlier results.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: They are not a good offense.
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: But San Francisco's got Logan Web pitching and he's I
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: think he is their best pitcher. I mean it's almost
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: not even debatables. He got a three point four to
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: sixty RA one point one five whip, solid stuff. He's
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: actually been better on the road this year two point
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: nine to seven Roady Ray. Usually he's better at home.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: Again. I don't know what's up with this Giant stadium.
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: This year, where all these pitchers, Oracle Park, whatever it is,
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: all these pictures are doing worse there, even though it's
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: a picture friendly ballpark. Webb has been really, really good
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: this month, though we backed him in his start against Milwaukee.
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: He's only given up one run this month in.
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: Twenty three innings, thirteen hits, allowed eighteen to one strike
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: up walk ratio. He's in full command, and he faced
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: all good offenses to Milwaukee Washington in the Cubs, so
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: he's not facing nobody's here. He's in really good for
• 21:42
  Speaker 4: him right now, so that does help if you want
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: to back him here.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Miami, though, this is where I start
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: to have some questions.
• 21:49
  Speaker 4: He's got thirty at bats against him, He's held him
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: to a two thirty three average, which is pretty low,
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: but a seven to seventy ops it's a little bit
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: high for my liking. He's allowed some power hitting to them,
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: seven to three strikeout walk ratio against them. I mean,
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: I almost want to play this game, but I'm leaving
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: it alone. But obviously I like San Francisco here and
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: Ryan Gusto is pitching for Miami.
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: He is not good. Seven point two four ERA, one
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: point seven to six whip. He has been good at.
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: Home though, three point eight six home ERA, but it's
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: in a very small sample size.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: He hasn't gone deep into any of his games.
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: He's only made five appearances this year, and they're ramping
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: them up a little bit. He almost made it five
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: innings last time out against Philadelphia, but he was not good.
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: He's got way too many hits allowed right now.
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: His walk great strikeout raider both you know, not even
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: really that good either. So he's just not a good pitcher.
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: His numbers overall not good against San Francisco. We have
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: a very small sample size here. Eight at bats, only
• 22:52
  Speaker 4: four of their hitters have faced him two strikeouts, no walks,
• 22:55
  Speaker 4: no extra base hits. But they do have a three
• 22:57
  Speaker 4: to seventy five average seven fifty oh p off En.
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: But I think pretty clearly Web does have the edge here.
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: I would play San Francisco first five is probably what
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: I would do, though, but you're probably looking at a
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: heavy price on them, and that kind of worries me too.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: San Francisco seventy.
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: Five percent of the tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash,
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: so they are getting the money here. They're minus one
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: forty something on the money line for the full game.
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: But I'm pretty sure that if you go first five,
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: you're gonna have to pay more for that. So I
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: think the way to play this game has to be
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: playing the Giants minus a half run in the first
• 23:31
  Speaker 4: five innings. I think that is the way to play
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: this game. I just can't trust their bullpen, really, but
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: they are gonna be motivated, you know. I wouldn't necessary.
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't really disagree with playing them full game. I
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: just think the first five really is where you're focusing
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: on the biggest, biggest matchup edge that you have in
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: this game, which is this starting pitching matchup, which I
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: really think is a mismatch.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: So that's what I'm looking at there.
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: Let me look at what Action Network has for numbers
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: on this form minute.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: Let me see, I'm considering it.
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: I don't think I quite want to do it, but
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: maybe I'm looking right now, Giants.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: It's tempting. It's tempting. I'm looking at the first five here.
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the Giants are minus one sixty on the money
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: line in the first five, So the odds makers are
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: definitely telling you something with that.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: Man, I'm tempted. I'm definitely tempted.
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: You can get minus half a run at exactly minus
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: one ten at one of the books out there, the
• 24:37
  Speaker 4: b Gym book and every other book is pretty close
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: to that. Do we trust that the Giants offense can
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: get us some runs here?
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: Though?
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: Against Gusto? You know what, Yeah, whatever, let's do it.
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: It looks like a mismatch.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: I don't want to be totally scared away just by
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: Webb's whip there against Let's do it, San Francisco. First five,
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: minus half a run. I found it at minus one
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: ten out there. It looks like you'll have to go
• 25:08
  Speaker 4: at most minus one fifteen on that. All right, so
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: I'll have two baseball players today. I really don't like
• 25:15
  Speaker 4: this board though, But yeah, San Francisco. Yeah, let's do it,
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: all right, and you know the motivational edge is there
• 25:25
  Speaker 4: as well. I mean that just looks like so much
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: of a starting pitching mismatch to me, all right. Washington
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: at Tampa Bay, these teams have split this series. Tampa
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: Bay won Game one in the return home spot, and
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: Washington was able to bounce back with the win yesterday
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: with Cade Cavali I think pitched yesterday. I think he
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: did pitch pretty well. I'll have to dig into it
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: to see. Washington used three relief pitchers yesterday. Not a
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: good bullpend though, neither is Tampa's. Tampa also used three.
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: I don't want to trust either bullpen here. Tampa's ranked sixteenth,
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: but their bullpend era is really ugly in the mid fours.
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: Washington twenty third. Not good bullpens here. Washington is a
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: good offense, They're really good on the road. Number four
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: in offense here, Tampa Bay number sixteen, definitely a mediocre offense.
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: Washington is going with Andrew Alvarez, who is still kind
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: of a young guy wh would I do think he
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: does have some talent, but he's got some issues with walks.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: He's got a good era three.
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: Point four to nine, but his whip is one point
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: four five, which is not good.
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: He's made some relief appearances this year too.
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: His home road splits are pretty insignificant, so that doesn't
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: really matter. He has not had really a full start
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: yet and that he hasn't gone five innings in any
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: start yet. They've had him go like ninety pitches before though,
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: but he didn't make it five innings in that one
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: against San Francisco. He was walking way too many guys.
• 26:50
  Speaker 4: He had a good outing last time out against Kansas City,
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: although they're a putrid offense on the road. That was
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: in Washington. You know, Alvarez didn't even make it five
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: innings in that one though. They limited his pitch count
• 27:02
  Speaker 4: quite a bit in that one, so it looks like
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: they are still being kind of careful with him. His
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: overall numbers. His strikeout rate is good, but his hit
• 27:08
  Speaker 4: rate's a little bit high. His walk rate's not very good,
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: like I said, so he's got some things to kind
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: of figure out here.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: I don't really want to.
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: Fully trust him, but I think he does have some
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: talent here. He has the ability to strike guys out.
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: At least Tampa only has one guy who's faced in
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: Mesa who is one for one with a single, no walks,
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: no strikeouts. Obviously, still don't really want to fully trust
• 27:32
  Speaker 4: him though. Nick Martinez his picture for Tampa, he's been
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: good this season two point six ERA, one point one
• 27:38
  Speaker 4: six whip. Tampa just seems to get like the most
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: out of most of their pictures. His Martinez, I mean,
• 27:44
  Speaker 4: he's kind of an older dude.
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: He's a veteran.
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: He's a smart pitcher, but he doesn't really have strikeout stuff.
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit worse at home three point
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: oh two Homie ra which is still good though pitched
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: reasonably well against the Dodgers last time out. I mean,
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: that's not an easy assignment to go on the road
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: and face the Dodgers. He was fine in that outing,
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: but he's allowed too many hits this month, mostly because
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: he had a bad start against Detroit though, which was
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: at home. By the way, strike gout rate is low,
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: I mean that's kind of the case on the season.
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is better on the full season. His
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: walk rate is actually quite low on the season. He
• 28:18
  Speaker 4: doesn't walk guys, but he also doesn't strike guys out.
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: His strike gut rate not good, so he pitches to contact,
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: which can be dangerous. But sometimes guys are just good
• 28:30
  Speaker 4: at that, you know what I mean, Like you can.
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: You can be a contact.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: Pitcher and still be effective if your throat, if your
• 28:36
  Speaker 4: stuff is still fooling guys enough to get them to
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: hit into soft contact all over the place. You gotta
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: rely on good fielding behind you if you are that
• 28:44
  Speaker 4: type of pitcher. Though he does have good numbers against Washington,
• 28:47
  Speaker 4: it's only twenty five at bats though six of their
• 28:50
  Speaker 4: hitters have faced him two forty average, six to sixty
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: nine ohps, four to one strike out walk ratio. I'm
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: not doing anything with this game. I mean, we have
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: no not a lot to really dig into. With the
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: matchup numbers, it's pretty difficult to figure this game out.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: I think both teams are gonna show up.
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: I think Tampa is the better team though, even though
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: I think there may be.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Overrated based on their record.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: But I think Washington is also overrated based on the record. Washington,
• 29:15
  Speaker 4: they are a better road team than home team, though
• 29:18
  Speaker 4: Tampa at minus one thirty something. Here on the money line,
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: eighty percent of the tickets, eighty eight percent of the
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: cash on them so the money is back in Tampa.
• 29:26
  Speaker 4: But the money is also pretty strong on the over
• 29:29
  Speaker 4: in this game at around eight or eight and a half,
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: so totals kind of in no man's land. Basically, you
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: figure it out. I don't know about the over. I mean,
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: if you're gonna go over, you should go full game
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: with it, so that you have the bullpens involved in
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: that equation. I could see an argument for a first
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: five under here. I think both pitchers, both starting pitchers
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: could do okay.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: In the early going here.
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: Wouldn't necessarily disagree with Tampa either, But yeah, that's not
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: a game that I really have a good read at all.
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: Cleveland at Houston, these teams are split as well. Houston
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: won Game one of the series. Cleveland bounced back with
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: an eight to one win yesterday. I don't know how
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: Cleveland gets eight runs off of you man. And that
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: was an arraghetty game, wasn't it. I don't know what
• 30:16
  Speaker 4: happened in that game. This Cleveland offense, they can't hit
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: right now. They have way too many injuries too, so
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: I don't know how they put up eight runs yesterday.
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: Cleveland only is one guy out of the bullpen yesterday
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: they are the better bullpen here Houston News three. Cleveland
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: is ranked fourteenth in bullpen. Houston is twenty first. Though
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: Houston has been better recently, their bullpen is not egregiously
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: bad at this point, although I'm still, you know, I'm
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: still treading lightly with Houston's bullpen, though I still wouldn't
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: really want to actually back them. Offensively, Houston is the
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: better team. Number twelve. Cleveland is twenty eighth in offense,
• 30:55
  Speaker 4: very very bad right now, even with the eight runs yesterday.
• 30:58
  Speaker 4: Cleveland is also going with slim Chaconi here, who might
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: be the worst starter or he's not very good. Four
• 31:04
  Speaker 4: point sixty ra one point four Whip not as good
• 31:07
  Speaker 4: on the road either, four point eight three. Roady Ray
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: did pitch pretty well in his three starts this month, though,
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: so I don't.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: Know what the deal is there.
• 31:15
  Speaker 4: But he pitched well twice against the Yankees, and then
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: he pitched well against Milwaukee, So he's in good form
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: right now. At the very least, he's got a decent
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: strike out walk. Razio of that span didn't allow too
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: many hits, so impressive that he was able to do
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: that against a couple of good offenses there. His hit
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: rate on the season is way too high. Though his
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: walk rate's a little bit high. His strike gut rate
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: is not impressive at all, so I still don't trust him.
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Houston are also very untrustworthy. Thirty six
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: at bats three thirty three average, nine to ninety six ops.
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: That is not good. So I still don't trust Chaconi here.
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: I know he is in better form right now. I
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: don't necessarily want to really, like, you know, go full
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: throttle fading him, but he's not good on the road.
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: He's not good against Houston. Houston is going with Kaiwei Tang,
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: who is really difficult to figure out. He's you know,
• 32:08
  Speaker 4: he's been around for a little while. He's made a
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: lot of relief appearances. He's been in the starting rotation
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: for a while for Houston. Now he's got a four
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: point three to one ERA, one point three four whip
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: not great. Not good at home either, four point six
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: homye ra that's not good. He's been pretty bad this month.
• 32:25
  Speaker 4: He's been really really hit able this month. Houston's lost
• 32:28
  Speaker 4: all three of his starts. He's lost all of them.
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: He has a fifteen to seven strike gout walk ratio
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: twelve and a third innings this month, on top of
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: the twenty hits and fourteen ear in runs allowed. This
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: is not good stuff. Even though his strike gut rate
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: is high this month, all the rest of those numbers
• 32:44
  Speaker 4: are horrible, including a home start against Detroit. That's not
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: a good sign if you struggle at home against Detroit.
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: His overall numbers, he does have a pretty high strike
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: gut rate. His hit rate is actually low on the season,
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: but that includes all of his relief appearances, and his
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: walk rate is definitely too high. He's walking more. Yeah,
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: he's walking almost one guy every two winnings.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: You can't do that.
• 33:07
  Speaker 4: But he's facing a weak Cleveland offense here in Cleveland
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: only has three at bats against him across three batters
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: that they have in their current lineup, and they're over
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: three with no walks and no strikeouts. Does that mean
• 33:19
  Speaker 4: I think Tang is a guy you want to back here?
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: No, not really.
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: I think the way to play this game is probably
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: the over. I don't think either either starting pitcher is
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: particularly trustworthy here. Total seems kind of low at eight
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: and a half sixty percent of tickets ninety one percent
• 33:36
  Speaker 4: of the cash on the over, of course, you know,
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: Chaconi is in good for him right now, and Tang
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: does have the unfamiliarity at here gets a very weak
• 33:44
  Speaker 4: Cleveland offense. So I'm not really sure I quite want
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: to do that, but I think the over is what
• 33:50
  Speaker 4: makes the most sense in that one. The money is
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: also back in Cleveland. Sixty seven percent of tickets on Houston,
• 33:56
  Speaker 4: of the cash ninety percent of the clash, most of
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: the band members are there, no ninety percent of the
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: cash on Cleveland. I don't know if I agree with that.
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: I think Houston. I don't know, man, I think Houston
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: first five. There is some argument for that here, just
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: giving the matchup numbers here, But I think it over
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: is the better way to play that. I think that
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: that's more likely to come in in that game than
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: anything else. Saint Louis at Kansas City finishing their series.
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: Kansas City is on the verge of a sweep. There
• 34:30
  Speaker 4: you go, Zach.
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: They might sweep their rival out of town here. Will
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: they be able to do it? I don't know. Kansas City,
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: are they gonna look ahead? I don't know.
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: They have Tampa Bay next, so it's possible. Tampa Bay's
• 34:43
  Speaker 4: been one of the better teams in the American League,
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: so maybe Kansas City looks ahead, You're probably gonna get
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: extra effort out of Saint Louis trying to avoid the
• 34:50
  Speaker 4: sweep peer. I have been saying Saint Louis is not
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: as good as their record looks. I did give out
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: a play on Kansas City first five in the first
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: game of the series, backing Noah Cameron against Libratore.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: Now, this site, for.
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: Some reason, has neither team listed as using any relief
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: That is not true.
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: I believe Kansas City used four and Saint Louis use
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: either two or three, So these teams did use like
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: a normal amount of bullpen arms yesterday, so I don't
• 35:19
  Speaker 4: know why that site doesn't show it.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is twenty eighth in bullpen.
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: Though they're a very very bad bullpen, like you do
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: not want to back them.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis is a mediocre bullpen.
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: They are twentyeth actually right now, not great, so I'd
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: kind of want to avoid both bullpens here. Kansas City
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: has moved up offensively to eighteenth because they've been hitting
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: well in this series.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis number fourteen.
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: In offense, Kansas City does hit better at home, so
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: being at home helps their offense. Now that Kaufman Stadium
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: is not a pitcher friendly stadium anymore, Saint Louis is
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: going with Dustin May. Now I could see his start
• 35:57
  Speaker 4: going one of two ways here. May is actually well.
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: His numbers on the season are actually good at this point. Obviously,
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: I am not happy about that whatsoever, as the Red
• 36:09
  Speaker 4: Sox had him and then traded him away of course.
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: Three point seven to five VRRA one point one four
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: whip May. I mean he was the guy that wasn't
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: pitching well since his injuries though, but he is pitching
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: well this season. May has been better on the road
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: too for some reason. Three point four to eight roady array.
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: But Kansas City, like I said, they do hit better
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: in their park. It's not a pitcher friendly park anymore.
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: Kind of weird that May is worse at home though,
• 36:34
  Speaker 4: and a pitcher friendly Saint Louis Stadium. May has been
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: really really good recently though. He's had fifteen straight shutout
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: innings over his last two starts, only five hits, allowed
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: fifteen strikeouts in two walks, so he's been really really
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: good over his last two outings. Actually, if you go
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: back his last four outings, he's only allowed four earned
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: runs total in twenty seven to two thirds innings on
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: twelve hits. He's got thirty three strikeouts and four walks
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: over that span, so he's pretty much dominating. But we
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: got to dial it back a little bit because the
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: only good team that he faced was Milwaukee, the only
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: good offense, and then this month he vased Texas the
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: Mets in San Diego. Those are not good offenses, so
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: we got to dial it back a little bit. But
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: he is in very good form right now.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: The problem is he took a no hitter into the
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: ninth inning against San Diego. He had a complete game
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: one hitter. I think he had the no hitter into
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: the ninth inning and then they just let him finish
• 37:31
  Speaker 4: it off anyway.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: So he was really really.
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: Close, I'm pretty sure to pulling off a no hitter,
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: which would have been historic obviously, and I talk about
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: when a pitcher does that a lot of times they'll
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: be in a letdown spot. After that, he threw one
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: hundred and one pitches. He did that his last two
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: outings now and he's gone pretty close to one hundred
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: pitches in multiple starts otherwise this season, so that doesn't
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: concern me that much. But again, him being that close
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: to a no hitter does concern me, so I would
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: worry about that a little bit. But he's in great
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: form right now, and he does have pretty good numbers
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: against the Royals in thirty eight at bats to thirty
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: seven average, six seventy eight ohps, six to four strike
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio. Not quite sure that I would really
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: want to go against him here, So yeah, I could
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: see factors. There are those situational factors that go against
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: him a little bit, but the numbers and looking at
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: his recent form kind of tell you that he should
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: pitch well here. And even if he does not pitch
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: as well as he did last time out, obviously he can.
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: He can not pitch as well and still pitch well here,
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: you know, So he might be able to do that here.
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: Now I forget, by the way, because I remember I mentioned, oh,
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: there was this other pitcher that was coming off of
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: almost having a no hitter or having a no hitter
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: deep into some outing. Oh yeah, I think it was
• 38:50
  Speaker 4: Ron JR. Suarez a couple of days ago, and he
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: pitched well again against Seattle.
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: That's what it was.
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean it doesn't always the letdown, you know,
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: doesn't always happen.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: Now. Steven Colek is pitching for Kansas City. He's been
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: good as well.
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: He's got a two point six to eighty RA one
• 39:08
  Speaker 4: point zero three whip, pretty good numbers here for him.
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: He's been really good at home one point three to
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: two homey RA. He's been in pretty good form this
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: month as well. Kansas City has won all of his starts.
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: He's faced some better offenses in here, like Houston last
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: time out of pitch well against them. Overall, he's been
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: pretty good. He's allowed more than two earned runs only
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: three times this season more than three and runs only twice.
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: Low hit rate on the season, low walk rate, strikeout
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: rate is low, though he does not strike out guys,
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: so Dustin May is the better strikeout pitcher here, which,
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: by the way, I forgot to go across. I forgot
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: to go through May's season wide numbers. But he's got
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: a low hit rate, his walk rate is okay, and
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: his strikeout rate is still not that high but better
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: than Colex Colic is not a strikeout pitcher, but he's
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: been pitching effectively anyway?
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: Do I trust him as much May? I actually don't.
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: I actually trust May more given how dominant he's been recently.
• 40:07
  Speaker 4: Colek against Saint Louis hasn't been that good either. In
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: twenty nine at bats two seventy six average, eight to
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: twenty seven ops allowed four to three strike out walk ratios.
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: So I don't love Colec there. Although he is a
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: decent pitcher, I don't necessarily want to fade him. I
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: don't necessarily want to back May in the potential let
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: down here, but I think that probably is the way
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: to go with this game is probably to go with
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: The money is agreeing with that.
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: They're favored on the road, and probably for a reason,
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: although again I don't think Saint Louis is as good
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: as their record looks, but they're trying to avoid a
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: sweet peer. I think they have the better of the
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: starting pitching matchup here, especially the matchup numbers. I think
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: they have the better bullpen as well, so I think
• 40:49
  Speaker 4: you could go full game with that. Saint Louis minus
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: one thirty is about the price on the money line
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: sixty five percent of tickets seventy five percent of the
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: cash on Saint Louis. I think that's what I would.
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: I think I would go Saint Louis full game in
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: that one. Money is also backing the over in that game,
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: which is a little bit strange to me, and the
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: total is around nine.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: It is a Kauffin and Stadium game with.
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: Their shorter walls now or closer walls whatever. If you
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: go over on this, you gotta go full game on that.
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: You got to include the bullpens in that over because
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: I think there is an argument for the first five
• 41:23
  Speaker 4: under here because both pitchers have generally been good, so
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: first five under makes some sense in that one. I
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: wouldn't really want to play an over in that game,
• 41:32
  Speaker 4: but yeah, I think Saint Louis is the best approach
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: in that game.
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't argue with Saint.
• 41:38
  Speaker 4: Louis first five either, though, Wait, you bet against Atlanta yesterday.
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: I didn't really disagree with Milwaukee in that game yesterday,
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: but obviously I thought that the under was the best
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: way to play that game.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: Or were you are you talking about the under yesterday?
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: Did you play the under if it was a push?
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: At at least that wasn't a loss whatever you did,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah it was. It was a little bit of an
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: ugly beat.
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: But I had at the seven and a half on
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: the show there luckily. But yeah, I mean it was
• 42:13
  Speaker 4: a push if you played it, played it on the
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: seven and an unlucky push. All right, next game up
• 42:21
  Speaker 4: will be my other baseball play, so both plays will
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: be done in the afternoon here Toronto and Chicago Cubs.
• 42:27
  Speaker 4: I'm a little bit worried about this, to be honest.
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: There's not a lot of room for error here with
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: this one. We're gonna go Toronto in the Cubs first
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: five innings under three and a half, which I found
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: at minus one eighteen, So it wasn't just that heavily here.
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: I thought it was a reasonable number on this, especially
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: given that the full game looks like it's close to
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: six and a half here. So the oddsmakers are telling
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: you they think this is gonna be a low scoring game.
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: It's a Wrigley Field game, So the total being this
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: low might also mean the wind is kind of blowing
• 43:02
  Speaker 4: in here, But it might really just be because of
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: the pitching alone that the total is this low. I
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: think it could be a combination of both. I think
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: at the very worst, for the under it probably means
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: there's just no wind here today, but it might mean
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: that the wind is blowing in.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: These teams have split the series so far.
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: The Cubs dominated Game one and they destroyed Gussman.
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know how that happened.
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: Toronto bounced back with a win yesterday, so I think
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: both teams will probably show up here try to win
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: the series. Cubs use four relief pitchers yesterday Toronto used
• 43:35
  Speaker 4: four as well. I'm gonna cut the bullpens out of
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: this play here. Partially it's because we don't get a
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: good number on the full game tholthough. I think there
• 43:44
  Speaker 4: is probably a seven out there if you do want
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: to go full game on this. The Cubs are number
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: ten in bullpen right now, but their bullpen's been struggling
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: a little bit recently. Toronto is number thirteen. I mean,
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: these are bullpens that are okay, but I don't know
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: man give in the usage recently. Given their current form,
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: I'm a little bit worried about the bullpens.
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I do think that you can find a seven full
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: game on this.
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: If you do really want to go full game on this,
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: you could still do that, but I'm gonna go first
• 44:13
  Speaker 4: five instead and focus on what I think is the
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: best aspect of this, which is the starting pitching here.
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: The offenses here. I know the offense is an unloaded
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: which that kind of makes me like the under still
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: here because both games of the series have been really
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: high scoring. So we're gonna fade the recency bias here
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: as well. If there is any recency bias. What else
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: was I about to say?
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, the offense is here, Cubs are ranked seven
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: in offense. They've been hitting well.
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: Again, Toronto is not a good offense, so the ranked
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: twenty third, and I think both starting pitchers can help
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: us out here. Man, That's why I like this. We're
• 44:52
  Speaker 4: gonna back both pitchers here. Dylan Cees is pitching for Toronto.
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: He's been good two point seven to one, ERA one
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: point one nine and whip. His whip is better than
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: it usually is, so He's had issues with walks throughout
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: his career, but that's been a little bit better for
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: him this year, and or he's more unhittable this year.
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit worse on the road, for sure,
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: a three point three four roader, but that's still not bad,
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: so I still think that's fine. He's been He has
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: made two starts since coming back, and his team won
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: both starts. He was a little bit wild in his
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: last start against the Red Sox, although he didn't allow
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: any runs in five innings. He got a little bit
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: lucky because he walked four guys. But he's still been
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: dominant in the strikeout department since coming back, so obviously
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: his stuff is fine. Eighteen strikeouts and five walks and
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: eleven innings so far. That walk number is bad, but
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: it's a dominant strikeout number, and only seven hits all out.
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: In one ear and run allout over that span, so
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: he was good in those two starts.
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: He hasn't faced an offense as good as the Cubs,
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: though he faced Philly and Boston, and you know, he
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: struggled a little bit against some better offenses prior to
• 46:01
  Speaker 4: getting injured, but it could have been injury related, who knows.
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: On the course of the season, he's got a low
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: hit rate, he has a really high strikeout rate. At
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: his walk rate, yeah, it's not that good. He walks
• 46:13
  Speaker 4: too many guys. I wish that he got that under control.
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: But the rest of his numbers are really good. His
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: numbers against the Cubs are also good. He has a
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: huge sample size here, one hundred and three at bats
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: because he's been in the National League, Cubs have seen
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: a lot of them. They still haven't really figured him out.
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: Cubs two h four average against him, six thirty oh ps,
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: forty one to eleven strike out walk ratio. All those
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: numbers are pretty good across the board, so Cease ceases
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: the Cubs bats for the most part. Chotay Minaga's pitching
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: for the Cubs, I think he's the more worrisome pitcher here.
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: He's got a four point two six ERA, but he's
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: been good throughout his career so far in the majors
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: for a few years now. He also pitched in Japan
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: prior to coming over here, but he's got a one
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: point oh six. Whip Man tells you that his ERA
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: is misleading, like his ERA should be in the threes,
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: which is basically what it has been throughout his career.
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: So I'm not buying that his era is that he's
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: as bad as his RA makes him look. I know
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: we're not going with the better of the home road
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: splits here. He's got a four point seven to five
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: home he ra I know that's not good. He was
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: good in his last home start, which was against the Rockies.
• 47:21
  Speaker 4: The Rockies not a great offense, but the Rockies have
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: been putting up a lot of offense recently, so that
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: was a decentality from him. He also pitched well in
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: course field in the previous game, so that's a good
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: sign that he pitched well and he hit her friendly ballpark,
• 47:36
  Speaker 4: and then he pitched well against that same team again.
• 47:39
  Speaker 4: I think you got to give him a pass for
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: the A's start prior to that, because he got really unlucky.
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: He gave up six runs on six hits, had five
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: strikeouts one walk, so he got unlucky there. Like you
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: look at his overall numbers. Yes, he did have three
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: bad starts towards the end of towards the end of May,
• 47:57
  Speaker 4: but he also kind of got unlucky in the last
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: two of those too. He's still had an eight to
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: two strikeout walk ratio over those two starts, so the
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: home runs were really plaguing him, but he didn't He
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: did not allow any in course fields, so he's kind
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: of gotten that back under wraps here. So he is
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: pitching better, recently decent command numbers, recently decent hit numbers.
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate on the season, pretty
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: low walk rate on the season. Strike out rate is fine,
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: like right in range of what you what you usually
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: expect out of him. I still think he's a good
• 48:26
  Speaker 4: pitcher man. He had a little bit of a lull,
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: but he is seemingly starting to pitch better again. Against Toronto,
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: they have not done well against him. They only have
• 48:35
  Speaker 4: six hitters who have faced him, so they don't really
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: have that much experience against him. Thirteen at bats, no
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: extra base hits, three strikeouts, one walk, two thirty one
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: average five sixteen ops, so I think both pitchers will
• 48:48
  Speaker 4: pitch well here. The total is low. It's low for
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: a reason. It's at seven. If you want to go
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: full game, you could you if you go full game,
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: make sure that you get the seven though, like go
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: under seven, and you know, I think it is still
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: available at multiple books out there, so you could do
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: it that way. Some six and a half's are showing up, though,
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna go first five only here, which I think
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: is where we have the biggest edge with the pitching here.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: Three and a half. I don't love the three and
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: a half first five unders, but sometimes I give them out.
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: I think this is a situation where it makes sense
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: to do it, And yeah, I think that's all I
• 49:25
  Speaker 4: got on it. At least the number is not three.
• 49:28
  Speaker 4: A lot of times when it's a six and a
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: half total, A lot of times you see it three
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: in the first five. So that's what we're gonna do.
• 49:35
  Speaker 4: There's definitely not a seven and a half on that.
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: I don't think there ever was a seven and a
• 49:39
  Speaker 4: half on that. Oh you mean yesterday? You mean yesterday
• 49:41
  Speaker 4: you were on a seven. That's some bullshit, man, that
• 49:45
  Speaker 4: game clearly should have gone under the seven.
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, fuck that. Yeah.
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: I mean it's definitely advantageous to have as many books
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: as possible. We have, like I think we have seven
• 49:57
  Speaker 4: or eight available in Massachusetts. So yeah, that is some bullshit,
• 50:03
  Speaker 4: all right, San Diego and Texas. This was a series
• 50:05
  Speaker 4: that I thought was gonna be an under series and
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: that has not happened at all. I think we got
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: screwed by an eleven run first inning in the first
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: game yesterday. I did not want to touch it, and
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: I think yesterday looked like it was trending under and
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: it went over because there were four runs in the
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: tenth inning.
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: Like this game was trending under for most of the game.
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: First five underhit yesterday, But in a matchup like this,
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: it's probably gonna be a full game under with these bullpens.
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: But I think you got kind of unlucky with that
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: one too. It was a six run game at the
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: end of nine innings yesterday. Four runs and extra innings,
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: that's some bullshit. So if you had the under yesterday,
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: you got unlucky. I think we got unlucky with ours too,
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: So this has been a misleading series as far as
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: the total is concerned.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: Like both games looked like they went way over, but
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: that's not really the case.
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: So I still think an under is possibly in play
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: for this game here today. It's just I'm not sure
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: that I love Lucas Gialito if he's starting for San Diego,
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: I definitely don't love him the bullpen you suggest today,
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: San Diego did use four guys out of the bullpen,
• 51:12
  Speaker 4: including Mason Miller. I mean the game went into extra innings,
• 51:15
  Speaker 4: so there was some extra bullpen usage. Texas used five.
• 51:20
  Speaker 4: I still like the bullpens. I wouldn't necessarily fade them.
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: San Diego has the sixth best bullpen and the second
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: best Bullpeny Ray, very good bullpen. Texas is not that
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: far behind at number eight. They're a good bullpen too.
• 51:35
  Speaker 4: I think you could still probably count on these bullpens here.
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: San Diego had Giolito listed as a starter, then it
• 51:42
  Speaker 4: was undecided, and it looks like it is still undecided.
• 51:45
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what San Diego is doing here.
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: If it is Giledo, he's not good. So if it
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: is him, four point five to sixty Ray one point
• 51:55
  Speaker 4: seventy nine whip is really battlthough he hasn't made that
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: many appearances this year, but he's been ugly on the road.
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: Six point four to eight Rodierra. Although even if it
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: is Gilito here, he draws a decent match up here.
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: I know he hasn't been good. He has more walks
• 52:10
  Speaker 4: than strikeouts on the season, which is very bad.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: He's walking almost one guy an inning.
• 52:16
  Speaker 4: Terrible hit rate is right around one per inning as well,
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: strike out rate low. That's some bad stuff. But this
• 52:23
  Speaker 4: is a pitcher friendly ballpark, and he does pitch well
• 52:26
  Speaker 4: against Texas fifty six career of bats against him, twenty
• 52:29
  Speaker 4: to five strike out walk ratio two fourteen average allowed,
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: five forty seven oh ps allowed, So his matchup numbers
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: are good. If I was San Diego, I think I
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: would just let him pitch even though he sucks, Like
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: this is one matchup where he might not suck. So
• 52:44
  Speaker 4: I think if I was them, i'd just do it.
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't.
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't really want him to pitch in most other games,
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: but this might be a game where he gets you something.
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: Because it is a pitcher friendly environment, it's a better
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: matchup for him. Texas is going with Nathan Vivaldi, who
• 52:59
  Speaker 4: has a four point two to three ERA, but I
• 53:01
  Speaker 4: think it should be lower than that based on his
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: one point one seven whip. He was really good last
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: year and his whip is not as good, but it's
• 53:09
  Speaker 4: still pretty good, so I think his ERA really should
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: be in the threes here. He's been a little bit
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: worse at home, which is kind of surprising, four point
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: five home e RA in this very pitcher from the environment.
• 53:21
  Speaker 4: But you know, I mean, like I said, his era's misleading.
• 53:24
  Speaker 4: He's gotten a little bit unlucky this season. He has
• 53:27
  Speaker 4: been a little bit too hittable, though, especially In one
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: recent start against Saint Louis, he was too hittable. But
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: he's got a good strike out walk ragium, including on
• 53:37
  Speaker 4: the full season. His strikeout rate is decent, his walk
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: rates not too bad. Hit rate is pretty low, but
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: he's given up a lot of home runs, like he
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: has one of the highest home run rates in baseball.
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: I think that's a little bit fluky, though. I know
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: he's a fly ball pitcher, but or no, he's not.
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: Actually my mistake, he's not. He's he's had more ground
• 53:56
  Speaker 4: ball outs than flyball outs. I don't know what is
• 53:58
  Speaker 4: going on with that home run number there, So I
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: think that is pretty fluky. So I think Evaldi's gotten
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: pretty unlucky here. Man San Diego is also a weak offense,
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: so they're probably not the offense is going to really
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: do much against Valdi here. He's got sixty two at
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: bats against them, a two ten average, six to twelve OPS,
• 54:18
  Speaker 4: thirteen to four strike got walk ratio, so I do
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: expect him to do well here.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: These offenses are not good.
• 54:24
  Speaker 4: San Diego's dead last in OPS and Texas is number
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: twenty two out of the thirty. So yeah, this game
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: still looks like another under to me, man, maybe you
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: gotta worry about the bullpens a little bit just because
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: of their usage, but you are getting that key number
• 54:40
  Speaker 4: seven and a half on the full game. We don't
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: know who San Diego is gonna start though, but again,
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: if I was them, i'd just I'd just go with
• 54:47
  Speaker 4: Jill Leedo. The total is actually eight at some books here.
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: Money is backing the over a little bit, fifty tickets
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: on the under, fifty percent of the cash on the over.
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to think about that, but I
• 55:01
  Speaker 4: think the well, I mean, like I said, I think
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: I would lean under still in this game, not one
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: that I really want to deal with, though. The money
• 55:10
  Speaker 4: is backing San Diego, which seems kind of crazy, and
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: these teams are both I think gonna show up because
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: both teams have won a game in the series seventy
• 55:19
  Speaker 4: two percent of tickets, sixty percent of the cash on
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: Texas at around minus one fifty something, So the oddsmakers
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: are telling you Texas is the better team and or
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: they have the better starter here. So I'm gonna keep
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: in mind because San Diego I think probably still has
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: the better record overall, but Texas is actually the better
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: team according to oddsmakers, I wouldn't really want to play
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: San Diego here. I think Texas has the upper hand here,
• 55:42
  Speaker 4: so I'd lean slightly towards them, But I think an
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: under makes the most sense in that game. By the way,
• 55:47
  Speaker 4: the under is getting the indicators in that game. I
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: just gave out the first five under. I forgot to
• 55:53
  Speaker 4: talk about the percentages in that game. Seventy three percent
• 55:55
  Speaker 4: of the tickets and fifty three percent of the cash
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: on the over in Blue Jays Cubs, so the public
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: percentage is on the over, but less of the money
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: on it. So the money looks like it is agreeing
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: with me on that. And the money is also backing
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: Toronto for what that's worth. Fifty nine percent of tickets,
• 56:11
  Speaker 4: ninety four percent of the cash, and they're actually favored
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: at minus one sixteen somewhere in that range. That seems
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: kind of insane to me that Toronto's a road favorite.
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: Is Ima and Naga really getting disrespected that much? Like
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: I know some of the professional betters think Ima Naga
• 56:29
  Speaker 4: is overrated and you know, always been figured out now,
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: But I'm looking at his numbers and I think his
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: era is just kind of misleadingly high. So yeah, I
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: don't know, man, Hopefully I'm not gonna be wrong about
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: that in that game today. But I don't think iman
• 56:41
  Speaker 4: Naga should be a home underdog.
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: Man. It seems crazy to me that he's a home underdog.
• 56:46
  Speaker 4: Plus I think the Cubs have the slightly better bullpen
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: and the better offense, so seeing the Cubs as an
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: underdog seems a little bit crazy, Like, I don't know
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: that there might be some value in playing the Cubs
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: side there in that game. Gerald, Yeah, Happy Father's Day
• 57:02
  Speaker 4: to all the fathers. Yes, I'm going to be at
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: my parents' house in a little bit, so I gotta
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: get over there at some point so I will see
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: my father later on today shortly, really, Yes, Happy Father's
• 57:17
  Speaker 4: Day to all the dads.
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: All right, Pittsburgh and Colorado. Colorado is on the verge
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: of a sweep of Pittsburgh.
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: Who would have thought, Man, Pittsburgh is obviously the better
• 57:26
  Speaker 4: team here though, Colorado, I mean, they won each game
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: by one run. Probably got to expect some motivation out
• 57:33
  Speaker 4: of Pittsburgh here to try to avoid the sweep. Colorado's
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: probably not gonna overlook anybody, though, because Colorado is not
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: a good team here.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: They play Boston next.
• 57:43
  Speaker 4: I don't know if they're gonna overlook Pittsburgh with Boston
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: up next, Not sure about that. The Red Sox better
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: win that series against Colorado, man, That's all I gotta say.
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: Corsfield is always, you know, is always a weird place
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: to have to go though when you're not familiar with it,
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: and the Red Sox are gonna have some pitchers going
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: in that series that are not familiar with that stadium.
• 58:05
  Speaker 4: So I don't love that, even though the Red Sox
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: have played well in this series so far. But whatever,
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: we're talking about Colorado here and Pittsburgh. Colorado used three
• 58:15
  Speaker 4: or relieve pitchers yesterday. Pittsburgh used one. Pittsburgh has the
• 58:20
  Speaker 4: better bullpen, but that's kind of just by default. Colorado's
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: number twenty seventh in bullpen, but they have the second
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: worst boatmen ERA, only to Minnesota. They're not a good bullpen.
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh's number twenty two. Their ERA is a little bit
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: better than the teams around them, so they're not quite
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: as bad as that, but they're not good. Both offenses
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: have been good recently, Pittsburgh number five overall, Colorado's ten
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: tied with the Brewers, but I still don't think Colorado's
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: offense is as good as that. But they may be
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: able to hit here at home against Jared Jones. I'm
• 58:53
  Speaker 4: sad about it, man. I like Jared Jones.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: He's got I think he's got decent stuff.
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: He was good two years ago, but his return from
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: injury has really not been good. Six point two to
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: three Ray, one point six to two Whip. This is
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: some real bad stuff. He's better on the road five
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: roady Ray, but he's got a pitching course field here
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: that's not gonna be easy overall. I mean, he does
• 59:15
  Speaker 4: have a good strike out walk ratio, though, but he's
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: been a little bit too hittable. His hit rates not
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: very good, but his walk numbers fine, his strikeout numbers fine,
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: so he's not that bad. Still hasn't really gone deep
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: into these outings yet.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: Does have a little bit of a fly.
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: Ball tendency, but it's not that crazy, so he might
• 59:34
  Speaker 4: not be horrible here in course field, Colorado only is
• 59:38
  Speaker 4: three guys who have faced him nine at bats. They
• 59:40
  Speaker 4: do have a couple of extra base hits that are
• 59:42
  Speaker 4: both from Hunter Goodman, a double on a home run.
• 59:46
  Speaker 4: They got two strikeouts one walk against him two twenty
• 59:49
  Speaker 4: two average. Because of the power hitting there from the
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: only guy that has any hits off him, Goodman, that
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: Jack's thro ops up to nine sixty seven. I wouldn't
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: put much weight into this, though. I'm not sure that
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 4: Jones is actually gonna do badly here. I think he's
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 4: He's capable of pitching well, for sure, and this offense
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: is very familiar with him. Michael Lorenz in his pitching
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: for the Rockies, he is not a good pitcher. Seven
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 4: point one to three ERA, one point eight five whip.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: This is not good, understandably. He's not as good in
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 4: course field eight point four to four ERA at home.
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 4: That's not good. But his last two starts were both
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: good against the Cubs, one at home, one on the road.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: I don't know why. Maybe maybe he just matches up
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: better against the Cubs. I don't know, because he was
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: pretty bad and in the multiple starts prior to that,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 4: so maybe it's just a matchup thing against the Cubs.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 4: I still don't trust him. Even those numbers were better
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 4: in those two starts. He's got a really high hit
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 4: rate on the season. I think it might be the
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: highest in baseball, really really bad stuff. Over one hundred
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: hits a lout in seventy and two thirds innings.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: That's not good.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 4: His fly ball rate is somewhat high, and he's given
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 4: up some amount of home runs here. He isn't the
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: worst guy to allowing home runs, though he's better than
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: you evolved he somehow.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: His strike up rate is fairly low.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is mediocre not great here, so I
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: don't really trust Lorenzo, although he is actually good against
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh in seventy two at bats one eighty one average
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: allowed that is really low. Six sixty ops is higher
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: than you'd think with that average, but still not high.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: Twenty four to nine strike out walk ratime, So Lorenzen
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: does have a good match up here, you know. I
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: mean it might sound kind of insane, but there is
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 4: some argument here for maybe a first five under.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I mean, I wouldn't want to
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: bank on it, but the money is actually hitting the
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: under in this one sixty eight percent of the tickets
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 4: in eighty two percent of the cash on the under.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 2: Full games eleven and a half.
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't go full game because the bullpens could just
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: wreck you first five might be a possibility, but I
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: still don't want to trust these pitchers with their overall
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: numbers here. But you're probably getting a decent number there.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 4: Probably it's like a it might be like a six
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: in the first five innings.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is favored. They are the better team here.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 4: They're around minus one forty, they're public, the public seems
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: to expect them to win this game, you know, avoid
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: the sweep. Seventy three percent of ticket, seventy four percent
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: of the cash on Pittsburgh at their best. I would
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: say Jones is the better pitcher here in Pittsburgh does
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: have a bullpen edge too, so I don't totally disagree
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: with that, but.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure that I totally love it either.
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: And Lorenz is in the better form right now and
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: actually has good matchup numbers here in a sample size
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: that we can actually kind of gauge.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 2: So Colorado first five.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: Actually makes some sense in that game, too, But that
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: is not a game that I want to do anything with.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: Zach. What's up that thanks ranging out?
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 4: Yes Juneteenth, very appropriately, right before Father's Day.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: All right, I'm gonna be right back then. I'll talk
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: about the rest of these games.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: I don't think I'm gonna give out any extra plays
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: on the fly, but I'll talk about the rest of these.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: I have a w NBA play today, and I'm gonna
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: give out a soccer play that's a little bit different
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 4: that hopefully we'll get there. I'll be right back and
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: then hopefully we can get this show done in maybe
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 4: another half hour.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: All right, all right, next game.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 4: Is Minnesota Arizona on Peacock. All these games are in
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 4: the afternoon, by the way, because it's Sunday, it's getaway day.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: So I'm going to keep in mind that there there
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: are look ahead components that are potentially in play here,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: teams having to get out of where they are and
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 4: go on the road.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 2: Travel to some new location for the next series. Whatever.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, the Rockies, they definitely suck though. Minnesota at Arizona here. Yeah,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: this series I believe has been split so far. Yeah,
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: both really high scoring games too. Arizona won the first game.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 4: Seemed like a good matchup for them there. Yesterday was
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: just a barrage of offense on both sides and Minnesota
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 4: won the game by a lot. Minnesota used three relief
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is a disaster, though Arizona used two.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 4: I don't like either bullpen really. Arizona is ranked seventh,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 4: but their ERA is in the low fours. It's not great.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: Minnesota is dead last in whip and ERA. They're alone
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: in that department. Now, really really really bad bullpen. Definitely
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 4: a fade bullpen there. Arizona's only twenty fifth in offense,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 4: even with the offense that put up in this series,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 4: pretty ridiculous. Minnesota is where are they at?
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: They're all the way up to eighth given that explosion
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: they had yesterday of sixteen runs. I don't think they're
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: that good, but they're a capable offense. As far as the.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 4: Oh I already talked about the bullpen usage. This starting
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: pitching matchup is the most unpredictable starting pitching matchup of
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: the day. Neither of these pitchers are well known at all.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 4: Minnesota is going with Mike Parades, who is listed as
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: a relief pitcher. But he's a twenty five year old.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 4: He's a small guy. He doesn't throw hard. I've looked
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: at his numbers. He's pitched a little bit in the
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 4: Major so far. This is his first season in the
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: majors and he's been going like three to four innings
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 4: in every outing. He's got a four point two ERA
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 4: and a one whip that's not bad, but his strikeout
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: rate is pretty low.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: His walk rate's a little bit too high right now.
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is definitely low though, so he's been
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: a little bit difficult to hit. He's faced mostly weak
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 4: offenses in here, though. I don't really think he's trustworthy.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: Arizona hasn't faced him yet, so maybe he can go
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 4: out there and fool them a little bit. But he
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: doesn't throw hard. I've looked at his scouting. He throws
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 4: like low to mid nineties fastball. He's got kind of
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: a typical arsenal with fastball cutter. I think it's fastball cutters,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 4: lighter change, I think is what he throws. I looked
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 4: at his minor league numbers this year too, and they
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 4: were mediocre, Like in ERA in the threes and Triple
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 4: A decent numbers. You know, I think he's kind of
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: a mediocre pitcher. So what are you gonna get out
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: of him?
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: No idea.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 4: Arizona is going with Hose Cabrera and he's making his
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 4: major league debut. The twenty four year old guy from
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 4: the Dominican Republic. He is the taller of the two pitchers.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 4: Of that matters, he is a right handed pitcher. I
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: don't even know if Parades is a right or lefty.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: I don't really pay attention to right versus left that
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: much though, although lefties are harder to pick up. Both
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 4: these pictures are righties, though, And in fact, they both
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: have similar arsenals, and they both had kind of similar
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 4: numbers in triple A. Like I looked at Cabrera. His
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 4: numbers a Triple A this year pretty similar like e
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: Ra and the threes. Decent numbers across the board, but
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 4: nothing like spectacular. Cabrera does throw a little bit harder.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: He throws mid to upper nine. He's on the fastball,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 4: but his arsenal is pretty similar. It's like a cutter,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: a sweeper, which is pretty similar to a slider. I'm
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 4: pretty sure, maybe a little bit slower and a change.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 4: So these guys both have like a very similar four
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: pitch mix here. Just Cabrera throws a little bit harder
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: and he is the bigger of the two guys. I
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 4: honestly have no idea what we're gonna get here. Neither
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 4: pitcher has been seen before by these opposing hitters. I mean,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: this series has been just over over over all the
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: way both bullpens are definitely fadable. I mean, I would
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: not disagree with the over in this one, but you
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: have no idea what these pictures are gonna do.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: Like they might actually do well.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: But obviously, if you're gonna try to play the under here,
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: he should only go first.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: Five.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 4: The money is backing the over still though seventy nine
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: The unfamiliarity edge can only get you so far, man,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: if you're just not that good of a pitcher.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: And I don't know how good these pictures are.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: I think Cabrera is considered to be the better prospect
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 4: out of the two, probably just because he throws a
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 4: harder fastball, but I don't know. Totals at nine and
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 4: a half so it is pretty high. Oddsmaker's kind of
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 4: telling you something with that Arizona is favored around minus
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 4: one thirty. They are the better team seventy seven percent
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: of ticket, sixty eight percent of the cash on Arizona,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: so the money is fading Arizona there. If I was
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: going to back Minnesota. I would only do it in
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 4: the first five. There's no way I would want to
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 4: include their bullpens. But this is just this is probably
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 4: the hardest game to predict on the entire board. I
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 4: have no clue what's going to happen in that game.
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 4: Anaheim at the A's.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: These teams have split as well.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 4: We got the overriding game one of the series on
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: the show yesterday. I was a seven nothing Anaheim win
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: yesterday behind Wolbert your rain. Yeah, I think I think
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 4: he pitched really well yesterday in a difficult pitching environment.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: I think that guy might be the real deal. Man.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: I keep saying that. I kind of like what his
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 4: underlying metrics look like. I also like Anaheim's pitcher today,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 4: re Debt Merse.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: I think he's good too. Anaheim used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: The A's used two. These are not bullpens I would
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: want to back at all. Though.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 4: The A's are number twenty four, Anaheim number twenty six.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 4: A's era is almost five now. That is not good,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: so I would avoid these bullpens. The A's have been
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: a really good offense. They're number three, even with some
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 4: injuries going on. There Anaheim is number fifteen. I think
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: Anaheim trout for once has stayed healthy so far. Don't
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 4: want to jinx it, but it seems like he's always hurt.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 4: Like I said, read Dettmers's pitching for Anaheim, he's the
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 4: more established pitcher at this point, Like I trust him
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: more than the A's pitcher here. Dettvers is actually good.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: Three point six eighty Ray one whip is solid man.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: He's been good on the road as well. Two point
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: eight six Roady Ray. We don't know what he's gonna
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 4: do in this stadium here in the A Stadium. I
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 4: think he did pitch in the stadium last year.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: He did, but it was a one and two third
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: inning relief of Hearance.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 4: But he only put one guy on base via a
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 4: walk and he didn't allow any runs.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: So he did pitch well in that very short stint.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 4: Actually he pitched at the stadium two other times and
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: he actually allowed no runs in this stadium across all
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 4: those relief appearances last year. So that's a decent sign
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 4: that he did pitch well in the stadium last year.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 4: Detver's overall, he's been really good recently. He's allowed one
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 4: run in three strikes this month and only six hits
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 4: allowed in twenty innings, facing the Dodgers on the road,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 4: Houston at home, and Arizona on the road. Not the
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: easiest offensive to face, although I know Arizona hasn't been
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: that good recently, and he put up an eighteen to
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 4: two strikeout walk ratio over that span and didn't walk
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: anybody in the last fourteen innings. This is some good
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: stuff he's in, really good for him right now.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 2: Over the course of the season.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 4: He does have kind of an extreme fly ball rate,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: which is not good for pitching in this A's stadium here,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 4: but he has not allowed many home runs. Just he
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 4: whiffs so many bad that it helps him out.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 4: He's allowed very few hits. He does not allow a
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: lot of hard contact. It looks like his walk rate's
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: pretty low. His strikeout rate is really good. His overall
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: numbers are good.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 4: He obviously is fooling guys at the major league level.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 4: He's a strong pitcher. The A's have not done great
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 4: against him in at fifty at bats. Seventeen to four
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio two sixty average is kind of mediocre,
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: but a six to seventy five ops is pretty low.
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I like what I'm seeing here. I think
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 4: Detmer should do well here. But he wasn't great in
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 4: his one start at home against the A's this year.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 4: The last time he faced the A's, they got him
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: for eight runs. But I think he got a little
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 4: bit unlucky because it was five and two.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: Thirds innings he went.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 4: He had eight strikeouts and two walks in that one,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 4: so he had a lot of strikeouts there. Basically like
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 4: everybody that got a hit off him scored though, So
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 4: I think he got a little bit unlucky in that one.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: So I think that overall, you know, even with that
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 4: bad start, his overall numbers are still good against these
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 4: as hitters.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: I expect him to pitch well here.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 4: He will be opposed by Jack Perkins, who is a
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: guy that's a little bit difficult to figure out.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 2: He's still young.
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 4: His numbers don't look good on the season six point
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 4: one five yar ray one point three to nine whip
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 4: is he r ray at home and on the road
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: or basically the same, So not a whole lot to
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 4: see there.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: He hasn't really been good either way. Did bitch okay
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: in his.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 4: Last start here in this stadium against a Pittsburgh team
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 4: that can hit. He went five innings, held him to
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: three on and runs, six strikeouts, two walks. That was
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 4: not a bad outing from Perkins, So you know, is
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 4: he turning things around?
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: Maybe?
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 4: He spent most of the season so far coming out
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: of the bullpen, and that was his longest.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 2: Start so far.
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: Overall, he's got a high strikeout rate, but again, usually
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 4: your strikeout numbers are better when you're coming out of
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 4: the bullpen because you're only pitching when you have like
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: your full stuff right and you're not tired yet. His
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: hit rate is a little bit high, as walk rate
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 4: is okay, So overall his numbers are better than his
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 4: era would suggest, at least on numbers against Anaheim. They
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: have fifteen at bats against them and they have not
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: hit him well. One thirty three average, five thirty three
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 4: ops three, zero StrEG out walk ratio. There is the
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 4: potential for a first five under in this game. Obviously,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 4: I would not go full game on that full game
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: totals nine and a half juice to the under, sixty
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: nine percent of tickets eighty nine percent of the cash
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 4: on the over, but I think a first five under
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: makes some sense in this game. I think both pitchers
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: might actually pitch okay here. Still don't know if I
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: fully trust it, though obviously I think Denver's is more trustworthy.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 4: Sixty six percent of tickets ninety two percent of the
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: cash on the A's though at minus one thirty or so,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 4: so the money is back in the A's. I'm not
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 4: sure that the A's really have that much of an
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 4: advantage anywhere here. You could argue that the starting pitching
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: matchup is close. Both bullpens are bad. I don't know, man,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 4: the A's do have a hitting edge, so that is
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 4: that is one argument for the A's that they their
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 4: offense is really good. I still think first five Anaheim
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 4: makes some sense here because Debt Meers is just more
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 4: established as a good pitcher right now. He's in pretty
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: much lights out recently, so I think he is pretty backable.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: I think so.
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 4: I think getting Anaheim is some sort of underdog in
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 4: the first five makes some sense there. Baltimore at the Dodgers.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 4: These teams have split as well. The Dodgers won Game
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 4: one by one run, and then Baltimore won yesterday by one,
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 4: ending a four game win streak for the Dodgers, so
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: sometimes the team will be hung over after they lose
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 4: a win streak. I'm not so sure that that'll be
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 4: the case here. Though Dodgers use three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 4: They are the better bullpen here, though Baltimore used three
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 4: or used four, excuse Wolf from only for three pitches.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 4: Dodgers are number five in bullpen though their ERA is
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 4: a little bit worse than that, but they're the better
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: bullpen here. Baltimore's bullpen is ranked seventeenth, but their RA
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 4: belongs in like the bottom ten.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: They're not good. Dodgers are number one in offense.
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 4: The Orioles are sixteen, so both teams have been able
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 4: to hit decently. Obviously, the Dodgers are an elite offense.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: Baltimore is going with Brandon Young here. Young has actually
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 4: been pitching pretty well recently. We backed him by way
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 4: of an under in his last game, and we did
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: get the under right in that game against Seattle. Dodgers
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 4: are a different animal though Young three point one eighty
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 4: one point two to five Whip not bad, uh, not
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 4: as good on the road three point six to seven.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray still not horrible, though.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 4: Still kind of an issue with the walks here from him, though,
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 4: and he's gonna have to step up in class, even
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 4: though Seattle's an okay offense, face them twice, face Toronto
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 4: before that, Detroit before that. He's got to face the
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 4: Dodgers here, and he He did do okay at home
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 4: against the Yankees earlier this season, pitched okay on the
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: road against the White Sox and his opener, so he
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 4: is capable of pitching okay here.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: He's got a pretty low hit rate on the season.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is too high, like I said, his
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: strike out rate is pretty low though, so he's not
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 4: really fooling hitters here. But he's been a decent pitcher
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: and the Dodgers don't have a lot of experience against
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 4: him at all. Only Kyle Tucker has ever faced him.
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: He's one for two with a single, no strikeouts, no walks.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 4: So young could do well here. He's unfamiliar to the Dodgers.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 4: He is pitching better recently. I wouldn't really be jumping
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 4: out of my seat to fade him here. Emmett she
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 4: and his pitching for the Dodgers. He's a guy who
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 4: I think he's better than his ra makes him look
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 4: four point seven six ERA doesn't look very good, but
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 4: a one point two whip is pretty good not too bad,
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 4: so she and is better than his RA would tell you.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 4: He is better at home four point zero one home ERA.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: He struggled a little bit recently, but still, I mean,
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 4: he's not really allowing a lot of runs in most
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: of these outings here. He's allowed four or fewer in
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 4: every start this season. He's got a high strike out
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 4: rate on the season, still has a low hit rate
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 4: and a pretty low walk rate too, so I think
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 4: he's getting unlucky for ERA to be that high. His
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: overall numbers continue to be okay this month except for
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: the amount of runs allowed, so I think he's better
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 4: than what his surface numbers suggest.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: His numbers against Baltimore the only four hitters who.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 4: Have ever faced him, but they have had success against him,
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 4: though they have four hits against him four forty four
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: average because it's four for nine obviously, sixteen to eleven ops,
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 4: two to one, strike a walk, radio a lot of
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: hits against him here, war does a home run against him?
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: Does that mean I think she is gonna actually do
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: bad here? No, not necessarily.
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 4: Young does have the better of the matchup if you
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 4: want to put any weight into those really small sample sizes,
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 4: and I don't know how much weight to really put
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: into that. But the money is backing Baltimore partially because
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers are a minus two to twenty something favorite
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 4: here because they're the Dodgers. So that price does look
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 4: a little high. Ninety two percent of tickets on the Dodgers,
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: fifty five percent of the cash on Baltimore.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: If you're gonna back Baltimore.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 4: I would say take like the half run or whatever
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 4: it is in the first five innings, maybe even a
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 4: run or a run and a half in the first five,
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 4: whatever it is, whatever the number is, that's closest to
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 4: a pick them price. I think you could maybe back
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 4: Baltimore first five innings here. I would not do it
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 4: in the full game, though, because Baltimore's bullpen is not good.
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: The money is coming in on the over here.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 4: The totals at nine, I understand it because both pitchers
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 4: could have their issues here. At least one bullpen is bad,
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: you know. I think it's kind of a toss up
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 4: though as far as the total is concerned in that game,
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 4: I don't know which way it's gonna go, so that
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 4: game is not on my card.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: Boston and Seattle.
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 4: When I first looked at the starting pitching matchup, my
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 4: thought was under and the odds makers are obviously thinking
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 4: that because this total is six and a half in
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 4: this game, so the odds makers are also thinking under here.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday, pretty well
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 4: rested bullpen, though Seattle's bullpend they used four, but they're
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 4: decently rested bullpen because they use no relief pitchers on
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 4: Friday because they use castillo to save their bullpen. Red
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 4: Sox are number two in bullpen. I think they have
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 4: the third best bullpen e RA right now good bullpens.
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 4: Seattle's is also good even though they're fifteenth or ERA
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 4: is quite good, so we're dealing with two good bullpens here.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 4: Seattle's offense has really struggled recently. They've fallen to twenty
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 4: fourth and the Red Sox are twenty seventh, really bad,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 4: So two good bullpens, two offenses that don't look good
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 4: right now. That also makes it look like an under
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are going with Peyton Toley, who is having
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 4: a good season two point nine to three ERA one
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: point zero six whip. You know, I mean, you know me,
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: I'm a fan of totally man. I like big burly
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: men with mustaches, you know. Plus I think he's kind
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: of hilarious. He is definitely kind of a character out there.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 4: If you see some of the videos of him trying
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 4: to hype up the team and whatever and hyping up
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 4: the US men's hockey team back when he was doing that.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a fan. I like this guy.
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 4: He's one of my favorite. He's been a little bit
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 4: worse on the road three point one six roadyra but
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 4: still good and he's pitching in a pitcher friendly stadium here.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 4: He's been a little bit more questionable, I guess in
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 4: his last couple of starts, but not too bad.
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: Overall.
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 4: Numbers are good here on the season. Low hit rate,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: pretty low walk rate, strikeout rate above one per inning.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: This looks pretty good.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 4: He is kind of more of a fly ball pitcher,
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 4: but in Seattle, Seattle Stadium should keep the balls in play,
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 4: although that hasn't been happening for some of Seattle's pitchers
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 4: this season. Logan Gilbert. Although Gilbert pitched well for US
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 4: in that under the other day, and he's pitching today,
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 4: by the way, totally has never been seen before by
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 4: the Mariners, so totally does have an extra advantage here,
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 4: and that the Mariners haven't seen him, so I think
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 4: he should pitch well here.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: He is going up against Logan Gilbert.
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 4: Like I just said, we back the under the last
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 4: time Gilbert played, and we won with that one. He
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 4: was really good in that outing, Gilbert three point four
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 4: to three ERA one point whip.
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: He's got some good numbers here. I don't know how.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: He's so much worse at home right now though, five
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 4: point h two home he are, and and I know
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 4: that didn't stop me from backing him at home in
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 4: his last outing, and he was good, you know, if
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: you look at his underlying metrics though, like his opponent,
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: batting average at home is still low, his hit rate
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 4: is still low.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: He's just allowed a.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 4: Ton of home runs and it's just not easily explainable.
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 4: I don't know why he's allowed so many home runs
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 4: at home this year. It doesn't make sense. And generally
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 4: he is better at home, as most Seattle pitchers are
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 4: because it's a picture friendly part. But I think he
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 4: maybe he's turned the corner here because he was dominant
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: in that game against Baltimore. We got the We got
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 4: the underwright in that game. He got the win in
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: that game, had double digit strikeouts, ten strikeouts and seven innings,
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 4: two hits allowed, oneer and run allowed.
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: That was a good outing from him. And he's going up.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 4: Against a pretty weak Red Sox offense here, Gilbert.
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: His numbers on the season are good.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 4: Low hit rate, pretty low walk rate, strikeout rate is
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 4: pretty high. There's not a lot to dislike. It's just
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 4: that his whole MIRA is just weird. But his matchup
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 4: numbers are actually not that good against the Red Sox
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 4: and forty five at bats to sixty seven average seven
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: to eighty seven ops. So the Red Sox have slightly
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 4: had the better of him, not by a lot, but
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 4: they do have the slightly better offensive numbers against him
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 4: fifteen to two strike up walk rag you is good
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 4: for him, though This still looks like more of an
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: under game to me, though, given you have two good pitchers,
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 4: they're pretty much pitching well still right now. Six and
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 4: a half, though, is a really difficult ask. I don't
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 4: know if there's gonna be a seven out there anywhere.
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 4: The six and a half is juice to the over,
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 4: but doesn't look like any book is thrown a seven up.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 4: There seventy percent of tickets on the Red Sox, ninety
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 4: one percent of the sorry on the over, ninety one
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: So the money is playing the over.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: But you know, when the oddsbegers throw up a total
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 4: dis low, you know they're saying, we think this is
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 4: gonna be a pitching matchup. And I I also to
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 4: think that, like, I think it undermakes the most sense
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 4: in this game still, but I don't like the six
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 4: and a half.
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: I know again, I always say it.
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 4: The professional betters will tell you you should play it,
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 4: because that's the oddsmakers trying to goad you into not
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 4: playing the under. But I'm like, yeah, whatever, man, Like
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: seven is such a key number in baseball, I just
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 4: don't want to do it. The money is backing the
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: Red Sox here as well, fifty nine percent of the
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: tickets on Seattle, seventy three percent of the cash on
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox. Seattle is about minus one thirty something here.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: Seattle is the better team.
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 4: The thing is that the Red Sox are not as
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 4: bad as the record looks though, and I think they
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 4: do have a starting pitching advantage here based on the
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 4: numbers that we just looked at, the matchup, the unfamiliarity, whatever,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 4: so I lean slightly towards the Red Sox here. But
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 4: Seattle is trying to avoid getting swept, so that's the
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 4: other thing. I don't think the Red Sox are gonna
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 4: look ahead to the Rockies though, Like I think this
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 4: is a bigger series here against Seattle, so I think
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox will remain focus.
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 2: In this game.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 4: But Seattle mt of extra motivation because they're trying to
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 4: avoid getting swept. You don't want to get swept at
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 4: home by the Red Sox, so.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 4: That's those are my thoughts on the game. I still
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: think under might be the better way to look at
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 4: that game, though. And then the night game on NBC
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: at Peacock is Mets and Philadelphia. We got this game
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 4: way wrong yesterday because Freddie Peralta ruined the whole game
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 4: in Philadelphia won fifteen to three. So the series is
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 4: even right now. Both teams are gonna be motivated. I
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 4: think it's a big divisional series. It's a big TV.
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: Game at night.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 4: The Mets used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 4: They do have the better bullpen. Philadelphia used two guys
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 4: as well, but they're pretty rested. Mets are number four
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 4: and bullpen they're a strong bullpen. Philadelphia is not horrible
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 4: at twelve, although their era is getting close to four.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 2: The real problem for the Mets here, though, is the
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: starting pitching.
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 4: It looks like they're going with David Peterson, yeah, up
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 4: against Zach Wheeler. That is a huge mismatch in favor
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 4: of Philadelphia. Have that's really what's going on here. It
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 4: looks like that is what's happening because Peterson is listed
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 4: on the board here. I would watch, though, I think
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: if you're gonna play this game, you should pick Wheeler
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 4: must start, but don't select a pitcher must start for
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 4: the Mets, because you know, the Mets have put an
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 4: opener in front of Peterson a lot, so they still
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 4: might do that here. It looks like Peterson is going
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 4: to pitch in the game though, whether there's an opener
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 4: in front of him or not, so the handicap kind
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: of remains the same, although Peterson has been better coming
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 4: in after an opener than he has been as a starter.
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 4: But Peterson's not good either way. I mean, he's a guy,
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 4: you know me. On this show, I pointed out that
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: he was basically just like a like the regression was like,
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 4: obviously gonna happen to Peterson, Like he had.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: These eras that were so low the last couple of seasons.
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: I'm like, no, he's putting way too many guys on base,
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 4: and his numbers this year are terrible. Five point nine
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 4: winy Ray one point six y three Whip not good
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 4: at all. He is better on the road four point
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: five Rodio, Right, So he's in the better of his
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 4: splits here, but he's not pitching well. He's not pitching
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 4: well recently. Hasn't made it past three or three and
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 4: two thirds innings in his last couple outings. Don't even
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 4: know if those were starts or not. He's made seven
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: starts this season in eight relief appearances. So again, I
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 4: still don't know if he's really gonna start here or
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 4: if they're gonna put an opener in front of him.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 4: His strike out rate's been really low recently. His walk
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 4: rate's been too high, as it usually is. Hit rate
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: is too high on the season, walk rate is too high,
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 4: strike out rate is not particularly good. Not a lot
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 4: to like with Peterson. Numbers against Philly are not as
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 4: bad as you would think. They're kind of mediocre and
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty seven at bats, forty six to
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 4: sixteen strike out walk ratio two sixty one average, seven
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 4: to sixty three ohps, So Philadelphia only has the slight
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 4: offensive edge against him. But Zach Wheeler is pitching for
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 4: the Phillies, and you know, he's excellent. Coming back from
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 4: injury no problem for him. Two point zero one ERA,
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 4: point eighty five whip. I mean he came back from
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 4: injury this season. I mean, but he hasn't been injured
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 4: since he's come back. But his numbers are really good,
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 4: really good at home one point seven to eight ERA.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 4: He's been pitching well really the whole time he's been back.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 4: He's allowed more than two hour in runs only twice,
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 4: no more than four in any outing, and that was
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: against the Dodgers.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: On the road.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 4: He's pitching well. He's got a decent strikeout rate, low
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 4: hit rate, and his walk rate is fine as well.
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 4: Numbers against the Mets though not as good as you
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 4: would think. One hundred twenty four at bats to sixty
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 4: six average eighth three oh ps, so this Met offense
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 4: has actually had the upper hand against him. Thirty six strikeouts,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 4: eighteen walks, so those sixteen of the walks are Juan Soto,
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 4: so that walk number.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: Is a little bit misleading.
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 4: But still Wheeler has had some struggles against the Mets.
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 4: So I'm not willing to back Wheeler here at around
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 4: minus one ninety on the price. I mean, he does
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 4: look like he has a huge pitching edge here on
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 4: the surface. When you dig into the matchup numbers, it's
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: not quite the case. The money is actually playing the Mets.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 4: Ninety three percent of the tickets around Philly, fifty four
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: On the Mets, So the money is taking that Mets.
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 2: The Mets as a big dog here.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 4: I think if you take the Mets, you should go
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 4: full game with it and take advantage of their bullpen.
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 4: But I don't want to do it. I can't back
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 4: David Peterson. Dude, I just can't do it. I'm an
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 4: over might be worth consideration here. Sixty nine percent of tickets,
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 4: eighty nine percent of the cash on the over.
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: The totals at eight. I just showed you.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: Wheelers' matchup numbers are not that good. Peterson's are really
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: not much better, and he also sucks. Could be a
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 4: bad matchup draw for Wheelers, so the game could possibly
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 4: get over. I still don't really want to do that though,
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 4: But that's my MLB breakdown for the day. Let's keep
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: this going, man, Let's try to get the show done.
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 4: We have WNBA, we have three games here. We have
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: Golden State in Las Vegas. Interesting game here in the
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 4: afternoon ish on CBS and Paramount Plus.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: It's an interesting matchup here.
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 4: Vegas just beat Phoenix and that was kind of a
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 4: big win for Vegas. Even though you might think, well,
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: why Phoenix terrible record?
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: Well, the reason is that Phoenix destroyed Vegas in their
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 4: home opener, which was the Rings ceremony. And if you remember,
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 4: I gave you guys Phoenix on the show as a
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 4: play because Phoenix lost to Vegas in the finals last year,
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 4: so that was a huge revenge game for Phoenix.
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 2: Having to watch Vegas get their rings.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 4: You knew Vegas was just gonna be flat in that game,
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 4: and Phoenix just embarrassed them by thirty three points. Made
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 4: me feel good with how right I was with that play.
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 4: As we started the season, hot in the WNBA.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: But after that, you know, Vegas wanted Phoenix, you know that.
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 4: So Vegas bounced back and they crushed Phoenix on the road,
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: well not crush them, they beat them by ten on
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 4: the road and got the revenge win there.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: So that was pretty big.
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 4: But the reason why it was even bigger was because
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 4: Vegas clinched a spot in the Cup final with that.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 4: So I mentioned yesterday the way the Cup works, which
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: I figured out, was that the Commissioner's Cup in the WNBA,
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 4: the best team from the West and the best team
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 4: from the East play each other in the Cup final,
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 4: and that's based on the record in Cup play, I'm
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 4: pretty sure. And with that win, Vegas got the win
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 4: in the West, so they became the West representative against
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: New York in the Cups. So that was a big game.
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 4: So Vegas could be in a letdown here. They did
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 4: already beat Golden State here by five last time they
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 4: played them here, but it was a close game, so
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 4: they might still not totally overlook Golden State here. But
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: Vegas is playing New York next and that is not
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 4: the Cup final. That is a regular season game against
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 4: the Liberty. But that's like a precursor to the main event,
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 4: which is gonna be on June thirtieth. So that's a
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 4: big game, dude.
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: They get their.
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 4: Whatever you want to call it, They get their Cup
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 4: preview game against New York. So this is kind of
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 4: a sandwich spot for Vegas here, but I don't really
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 4: know that they're gonna overlook Golden State. And we dig
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 4: into that last matchup Vegas one by five at home.
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: Vegas was a two.
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: And a half point favorite when that game went off,
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 4: really kind of more like three though, because it was juiced.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: Golden State actually won the rebound battles slightly in the game,
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 4: and Vegas shot really well in the game. Vegas shot
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 4: well from three, they did. Vegas shot forty three percent
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 4: from three in the game, and Golden State was only
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 4: thirty nine percent from the field and thirty one percent
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: from three.
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: So those are some outliers, right.
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 4: I think Golden State could shoot better this time and
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 4: Vegas is probably gonna regress from three point range, so
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: those numbers do kind of indicate the Golden State could
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 4: definitely hang in this game here. The regression numbers kind
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: of indicate the Golden State is the way to look
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 4: in this game Golden State. By the way, their head
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 4: coach is also a former assistant coach of Las Vegas,
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 4: so Golden State's coach knows Vegas's system, so that helps
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 4: Golden State as well, and they played well against Vegas
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 4: since that's been the case. But my problem with Golden
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 4: State is they just lost a four game win streak
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 4: and they lost to Minnesota, and that was the game
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: where I think they were also playing to try to
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 4: get Cup representation. I think that's what they were doing. No,
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 4: I guess I'm wrong. They've lost too many Cup games
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: prior to that, but that was still a big game, dude,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 4: playing against Minnesota, who might be the best team in
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 4: the league. That game was I believe tied or within
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 4: two points in the final minute of the game before
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 4: they finally lost by six. So I don't really want
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 4: Golden State coming up that huge game against Minnesota and
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 4: having lost a win streak, So I can't play this
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: game here. I lean Golden State slightly because I think
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 4: more things line up for them here, but I don't
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 4: want to do it, and the money is actually back
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 4: in Vegas. Vegas is about the same number here, around
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 4: three and a half. Three that's basically what they were
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 4: in that first game. It's a little bit higher, so
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 4: maybe a slight amount of line value.
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 2: On Golden State here.
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 4: Golden State's not a bad team, even though Vegas is
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: one of the best teams in the league. Vegas is
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 4: getting the money though, fifty eight percent of tickets on
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 4: Golden State, sixty four percent of the cash on Vegas.
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna pass on the game slightly for me to
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 4: Golden State plus the points though. Washington at Minnesota on
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 4: NBCTV or sorry, NBA TV.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: Excuse me.
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 4: Minnesota has been on fire even without Calli Or, who's
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 4: one of the best players in the league.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: She's coming back soon.
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 4: I think when she comes back, this Minnesota team, they're like,
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 4: clearly the best team in the league.
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: Minnesota has won three more games in a row.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 4: They're returning home from a road trip though, and you know,
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 4: I don't like that, even though it was a two
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 4: game road trip, They've been away for half a week basically,
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 4: so that's not great. The last time they were at
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 4: home was Monday, so, you know, I talk about it
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 4: when a team goes on the road. They went to
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 4: the Pacific, Oh sou so they have to come back
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 4: adjust to the time zone. They only have two days
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 4: to do that. I don't love that when a team
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 4: returns home from the road a lot of times they
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 4: can be distracted. They have to get back to home life.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 4: They're coming out of a nice win over a decent
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 4: Golden State team. Maybe Minnesota's kind of unhappy that they
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 4: did not become the Western Cup representative, and that was
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 4: entirely because they lost to Vegas during Cup play, so
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 4: Minnesota could have been the representative. So I think maybe
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 4: they're possibly a little bit angry about that and maybe,
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: you know, a little bit of a letdown spot because
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 4: of that. And it's gonna be pretty easy to overlook Washington.
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 4: Washington's not a great team, although I think maybe they're okay.
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 4: But all that being said, I like Washington here. But
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 4: the problem with Washington is they were just on the
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 4: East Coast and they just beat New York. That was
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 4: a huge upset for them to beat the Liberty, which
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 4: I think at that point the Liberty already had.
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: Clinched the Cup spot from the East.
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 4: Maybe I'm not sure about that, but it was also
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 4: a revenge spot for Washington, So I think the Liberty
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 4: overlooked them, and I gave you guys Washington as a
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 4: lean on the show. I should have made it a
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 4: play because Washington won the game outright as a big underdog.
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: And that's my problem here.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 4: They're traveling from the East coast now here, the last
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 4: game of the road trip. They're playing a fourth game
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 4: in whatever this is eight days coming off huge opset
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 4: of New York. I can't do it, man, I can't
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 4: give you Washington here, although I'm gonna lean to Washington anyway.
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 4: Minnesota is getting the money though, but you have to
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 4: lay thirteen and a half with them here or fourteen
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 4: seventy three percent of tickets eighty eight percent of the
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 4: cash on Minnesota. I don't love Minnesota in this one.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I think Washington maybe the way to look
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 4: in that one. But that's a pass, which means this
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 4: last game will be my play that I'm giving out
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 4: in the WNBA. We're gonna take La plus the points
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 4: here against the Liberty. We're gonna fade the Liberty. It's
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 4: interesting we have, you know, I just talked about it
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 4: with the Las Vegas, but we also have the Liberty
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 4: playing and their next game is that tune up game,
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 4: tune up, if you want to call it that. It
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 4: is a regular season game, so it counts their Cup
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: precursor game coming up against Vegas next. So I think
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 4: the Liberty could possibly be looking ahead to that. Man
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 4: And you might be saying, well, aren't the Liberty in
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 4: a bounce back spot? Didn't you just say they lost
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 4: at home to Washington? Yes, I did so. New York
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 4: is coming off an ugly loss at home to Washington.
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 4: And usually I'll want to take a team that lost
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 4: is a big favorite, and I will and I will
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 4: want to play them to bounce back in the next game.
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 2: Here's why I'm not gonna do that.
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 4: Number one is they lost an eight game win streak
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 4: with that loss. And you know, I talk about this
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 4: when a team has been rolling and like they hadn't
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 4: lost the game for almost a month. When a team's
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 4: rolling like that and they get their momentum totally stopped
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 4: like that with a loss, that can hang you over
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 4: a lot of times. So I think that's not good
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: for the Liberty. I think it's gonna put them in
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 4: a hangover spot. Number two, they were in New York
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 4: on Friday and now on Sunday they have to play
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 4: a night game on the Pacific Coast, you know. I
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 4: talk about that when an East Coast team has to
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: go out West, they have to adjust.
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: To the time zone.
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 4: Even though it's not one of the late late games here,
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 4: they're still gonna be playing until like ten PM their time,
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 4: and a lot of times your body clock, it's just
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 4: kind of fucked, you.
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 2: Know what I mean.
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 4: It's just too late and you start getting a bit
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 4: tired there because it's late in the night.
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 2: So I think that's a negative for them too. They're
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: gonna have to figure out how to adjust to the
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: time zone.
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 4: And like I said, I think they're gonna be looking
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 4: ahead to that huge game against Vegas. I know tonight's
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 4: games on ESPN, I get it, but LA is gonna
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 4: be up for it because usually the home team gets
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 4: a little bit more up for a TV game like this.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 4: Both teams should be, but I think the game means
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: a little bit more to LA here. It's also on
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 4: Disney Plos. The game against Vegas, by the way, we'll
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 4: be on USA Network. But I think that's a big
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 4: game against the Cup representative from the West and the
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 4: returning champs Vegas. I think it's a look ahead spot
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 4: for the Liberty here, so I think it basically makes
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 4: this a sandwich spot and for the LA side here.
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 4: The Sparks, they just lost to Minnesota, but it wasn't
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 4: a close game, so I think they're gonna be in.
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: Bounce back mode, if you want to call it that.
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 4: They got embarrassed the previous game by Golden State, but
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 4: look at the Minnesota. The spot they were in against
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: Minnesota just wasn't good. They're returning home from the road.
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 4: They've been on the road for a week, and you know,
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 4: you know how difficult it is in those return home spots,
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 4: So I don't think it was a good spot for them.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 4: But now that they're in their second game back home
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 4: and they're trying to split this two game home series,
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 4: two game home stand, I think it's a good spot
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 4: for them.
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 4: I talk about that when a team returns home and
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: they don't do well, they get settled and a lot
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 4: of times they do better in the next game. And
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 4: they have extra rest here too. They haven't played since
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 4: Wednesday and New York played on Friday, so New York
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 4: has two days fewer rests and they're having to travel
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 4: cross country, whereas LA is already on They're already at home,
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 4: so LA is not even not even having to travel,
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: and they have an extra couple of days off to
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 4: break this losing momentum.
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 2: I think the spot is way better for LA here.
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 4: I think it will be a big game for them,
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 4: playing one of the best teams in the league here
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 4: on ESPN at home. I think LA is gonna want
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 4: this game. We're gonna take LA plus the points. The
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 4: money is back in New York right now, though the
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 4: line is most five's out there, fifty percent ticket sixty
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 4: four percent of the cash on New York. So I
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 4: don't agree with the money in any of the three
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 4: games here, but this one, I think we're fading a
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 4: public road favorite here at least in this one. We
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 4: gotta get back on track with the WNBA. Man, we're
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 4: five and three now, it's still a win. Even if
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 4: we lose today, we're still on the winning side, and
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 4: we did win with the WNBA last year.
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 2: We got to get back on track, man.
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 4: I like the spot, so we're gonna take LA for
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 4: the WNBA play here, which I know I have been
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 4: treading lightly with the WNBA, but I like that one.
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: All right, World Cup.
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 4: We're gonna have a play right away in the World
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 4: Cup at new And by the way, I apologize, I
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 4: forgot there was another midnight game.
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: I fucking hate that shit.
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 4: Stop putting games at midnight or ESPN needs to fix
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 4: that shit, because the list that game is a game
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 4: on tomorrow's board, and it causes me to overlook it
• 1:40:51
  Speaker 4: every time because you need to put it as today.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean, because it's midnight Eastern time,
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 4: but it's still on that same day Pacific CO time.
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 2: Whatever.
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 4: Fuck you, ESPN, you know what I mean. So I
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 4: missed that completely. Japan beat Tunisia four to nothing, and
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 4: you know, if I was gonna look at that game,
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 4: Japan was obviously a fairly big favorite there, but Tunisia
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 4: I believe was coming off kind of an ugly loss
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 4: to somebody here.
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they'd lost horribly to Sweden. So I don't know if.
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 4: I really would have liked Japan in that game. In Japan,
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 4: I believe was coming from Mexico. I believe Japan played
• 1:41:27
  Speaker 4: in no uh Japan. Where did the Netherlands play in
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 4: their first game? I mentioned that yesterday. I forget where
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 4: Oh Texas? Yeah, so Japan was going from Texas to Mexico.
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: So Japan's travel spot wasn't that going I'm pretty sure
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: this game last night was in Mexico, so Japan was
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 4: going from Texas to Mexico. Tunisia I think was staying
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 4: in the States for that. So Tunisia had a little
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 4: bit of an edge as far as that was concerned,
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 4: because they had played against Sweden in the previous game,
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 4: which I think was in No, that might have been.
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 4: I think that was in Mexico as well. Actually, yes,
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 4: so yeah, Tunisia was staying in Mexico. Actually that's what
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 4: it was. Yeah, Tunisia was staying in Mexico. Anyway, whatever,
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 4: Japan won that game four to nothing. I believe Tunisia
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 4: is eliminated now. But whatever, We're looking at this first
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 4: game here with Spain in Saudi Arabia, and I just
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 4: had to find a way to play Spain here, dude.
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 4: I mean, they were the team that had the best
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 4: odds to win the entire World Cup when the World
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 4: Cup started, but now, of course France has the best odds.
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 4: And I did like France to win the whole thing
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 4: because they're more experienced, but Spain is not going to
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 4: lose to Saudi Arabia here man, and given the spot
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 4: that they're in, and we have to figure out what
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 4: it played this because you can't lay a minus one
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 4: thousand money line here, although I did see it at
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 4: minus seven hundred at one book out there.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 2: We're gonna get a little bit crazy with this.
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 4: We're gonna go Spain's team total over three and a
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 4: half at plus one twenty.
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: And I know they need to score four goals here.
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 4: I know it's a little bit of a difficul ask,
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 4: but I think in Game two of the World Cup,
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 4: it's an easier ass to score goals, especially when you're
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 4: gonna get a team that's gonna focus more on offense
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 4: after what they did in their first game.
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: I think it's the right way to play this game.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 4: You could play Spain on the spread at minus two
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 4: and a half if you want to do it that way.
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna be pissed if they win three to nothing,
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 4: because then they'll cover that and they'll not win this.
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 4: That will piss me off for sure. But you could
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 4: go over, you could go minus two and a half,
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 4: but that worries me, you know, just because Saudi Arabia
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 4: could get a garbage goal or something if this game, Like,
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 4: I think this game is gonna be kind of a blowout,
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 4: so I'm seeing this as more like I think this
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 4: game might have a tendency to be more like a
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 4: four to one game or something like that. So that's
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 4: why I'm gonna go with this instead. Although I wouldn't
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 4: really disagree with laying two and a half goals with Spain,
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 4: but I think you have less leeway there. I think
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 4: there are more ways that we can get this one correct, Spain.
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 4: They're coming off an ugly performance, man, a zero zero
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: draw again and it's Cape Verde. Come on, man, Spain
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 4: was a huge favorite here, and they're a bigger favorite
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 4: in this game, I think because I think Saudi Arabia
• 1:44:09
  Speaker 4: actually I don't know, they're about the same.
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 2: Actually yeah, I don't know. I think Saudi.
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 4: Arabia is slightly better than Cape Verde. But come on, man,
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 4: Spain was a minus one thousand favorite in this game.
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 4: They had similar numbers here on the total in the
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 4: spread here, and they couldn't even score a goal. Ridiculous
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 4: if you look at the game. Though Spain dominated the
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 4: game expected goals, they should have won the game two
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 4: to nothing. Basically, they dominated possession, They had almost all
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 4: the shots in the game. Spain clearly should have won
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 4: this game. It was kind of ridiculous they never got
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 4: a goal in net. So I think after a game
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 4: like this, you know Spain is gonna be focused on offense.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: After they put.
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 4: Up zero goals, people are gonna have a tendency to think, well,
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 4: how could they score four goals here? After something like that.
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 4: That's why I like it. I like doing it this
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 4: way because I think you want to play on a
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 4: team that is really good like this and has a
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 4: huge mismatch here, I think you're gonna get way more offensive.
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 4: Their offense again, wasn't bad really in this game. They
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 4: had a lot of good passes in the game. Whatever,
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 4: it just didn't translate into goals. And again they were
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: expected to score two with the way that they played
• 1:45:12
  Speaker 4: in that game. So I know that's not four, but
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 4: I like Spain to bounce back here.
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 4: These games were all on Fox Telemundo and Fox Sports won.
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 4: By the way, I gotta get this done and get
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 4: this video out because Saudi this game is gonna be
• 1:45:25
  Speaker 4: played at noon. Saudi Arabia I think is also in
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 4: a letdown spot because they just drew Uruguay as a
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 4: huge underdog. That was a huge game for Saudi Arabia,
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 4: and if you remember, Saudi Arabia did that last year too.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: They I think they.
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 4: Won against Argentina in their first game last year, and
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 4: then of course Argentina wound up winning the whole thing.
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: So these first games could be a little bit misleading. Man.
• 1:45:49
  Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia is not actually that good. Uruguay, I think
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 4: is not a great offensive team, but Saudi Arabia was
• 1:45:55
  Speaker 4: still a big dog in that one. Uruguay was minus
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 4: two to oo five. So you have Bain coming off
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 4: an embarrassing draw, you have Saudi Arabia coming off an
• 1:46:04
  Speaker 4: unexpected draw where they pretty much uh you know they
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 4: Uruguay was the team that was the team that had
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 4: an embarrassing game here, and Saudi Arabia almost won. They're
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 4: winning the game one nothing and Uruguay scored with ten
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 4: minutes to go in in the first ninety minutes there
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 4: to draw the game. But if you look at what
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 4: happened in this game, Uruguay was the better team. Uruguay
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 4: should have won one point seventy two to point sixty
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 4: six on the expected goals, so this was a misleading final.
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 4: Uruguay was the dominant team. They had sixty seven percent
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 4: of the possession. They had ten out of the thirteen
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 4: shots on goal, so Uruguay was clearly the better team here.
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 4: They had way more offense, more passes, whatever. Uh, So
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 4: this was a misleading result. We had misleading results on
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 4: both sides here. So I think Spain is going to
• 1:46:54
  Speaker 4: get the job done here. Obviously I think they're gonna win,
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 4: but you can't really lay a money line like this,
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 4: so I think over the.
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 2: Team total is the way to go. Also, Spain is
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 2: staying in the same stadium, by the way, they played
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: in Atlanta the last time Saudi Arabia played in Miami,
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 2: so they're not traveling very far here.
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 4: But Spain is already used to the city and the venue,
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 4: so Spain is already adjusted to this exact venue.
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 2: So I think that helps Spain.
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 4: I know it didn't help Scotland the other day, but
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 4: Spain is the way better team.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 4: You gotta think they're gonna bounce back in a big
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 4: way from that embarrassing performance because they were one of
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 4: the top teams in the country, So that's what we're
• 1:47:31
  Speaker 4: talking about here. I don't expect Saudi Arabia to do
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 4: much here, so I like I like Spain to score
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 4: a lot though. That's what we're gonna do. I think
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 4: that's the best way to do it. After they got
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 4: blanked in their last game. Belgium is playing Iran in Englewood, California,
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 4: and you might be saying, well, that's good for Iran
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 4: because they played in this same stadium last time. Yeah,
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 4: they did. But Iran, as I told you, they're not
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 4: allowed to stay in the country. They're because of the
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 4: mill military bullshit.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: Because of the war.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 4: Iran gets screwed and they're having to stay in Mexico
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 4: and they have to keep traveling to southern California from
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 4: Mexico on match day. So that's not great for Iran.
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 4: And Iran is coming off not a great performance against
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 4: New Zealand. They drew against New Zealand, and New Zealand
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 4: is one of the worst teams in this whole competition.
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 4: Iran's not very good, but they were the better team.
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 4: They were the favorite in that game in that match.
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 4: So the fact that they had a draw against New
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 4: Zealand is maybe it's not a good sign, although maybe
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 4: they should bounce back after that, so they could be
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 4: in a bounce back mode, because that was kind of
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 4: an embarrassing result here that Iran was they were actually
• 1:48:42
  Speaker 4: Iran was actually losing that game twice. But the way
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 4: that I look at it, though, it's not a good
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 4: sign that New Zealand actually outpossessed them in the game.
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 4: I don't know why they expected goals were zero zero
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 4: because there were a decent amount of shots here, but
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 4: New Zealand had twice as many shots as Iran and
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 4: possess them, So that worries me. So even though I
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 4: usually like a favorite to bounce back after they have
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 4: a bad performance like Iran did, the stats tell you
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 4: that New Zealand actually should have won this match. So
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 4: that's not a good sign for Iran. The travel situation
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 4: for them is not great. I don't love Iran here man.
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 4: I think Belgium should win here. Belgium is a big
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 4: favorite in Belgium. They're the better team, and they're coming
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 4: of a bad performance against Egypt, which I think was
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 4: up in Seattle. I want to say, so Belgium is
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 4: staying on the Pacific coast at least, although they're traveling
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 4: down from Seattle to la for this. But Belgium, they
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 4: were a big favorite against Egypt, dude, and the fact
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 4: that they lost this game or had a draw in
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 4: this game was kind of bullshit. It's not good that
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 4: Belgium didn't even score any actual goals. The only goal
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 4: they got was an own goal that Egypt gave them,
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 4: so that's not a good sign for Belgium. But they
• 1:49:52
  Speaker 4: were a minus two hundred favorite here, and if you
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 4: look at the stats in the game, Belgium did outplay them,
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 4: although it wasn't by much, three five to one point
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 4: eight on the expected goals. Both teams only had three
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 4: shots on going. Belgium only slightly won the possession battle,
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 4: so there are some things that don't look good for
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 4: Belgium here, So that's not great.
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 2: By the way.
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 4: I kind of want to see does Belgium still have
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 4: my guy Lukako? Is he still playing for them? I
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 4: want to see, Oh, I want to see player stats? Yeah, yeah,
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 4: they still have Lucacu. Yeah hell yeah, man, there you go.
• 1:50:28
  Speaker 4: It looks like he didn't play much though, so I
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 4: don't know, maybe he's too old now or something I
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 4: liked watching him. My last time Belgium was in the
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 4: world where maybe it was two World Cups to go,
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 4: whatever it was. Belgium should still win here though there
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 4: are minus two thirty five. Both teams look like they're
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 4: probably overrated here in this tournament. But Belgium is the
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 4: better side here. They don't have the same travel issues
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 4: that Iran has. Iran's bad performance against New Zealand is
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 4: more damning I think, so I think Belgium does win this.
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 4: I just don't know that it's a game that I
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 4: really want to get involved in. I think if I
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 4: was going to play another game, I would look to
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 4: somehow play Uruguay, which I just talked about.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 2: Uruguay.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 4: They should have beaten Saudi Arabia. They were the better
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 4: team against Saudi Arabia, they fell short. Uruguay is staying
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 4: in Miami, so this should be a good setting for
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 4: them because they're.
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 2: Staying in the same city and venue.
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 4: Cape Verdey is coming in from playing in Atlanta, which
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 4: isn't too bad for them either.
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 2: But Cape Veraday could be in a letdown mode. Man.
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 2: Everybody's talking about how they drew Spain zero zero and
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 2: I told you that Cape Verday should have lost that
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 2: based on the stats, Uruguay should have beaten Saudi Arabia.
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 4: Uruguay similar to their rival Argentina last year, where Argentina
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 4: lost to Saudi Arabia in their first game.
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 2: I think Argentina bounced back in a big way after that.
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 2: I think Uruguay does the same here.
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 4: I think Uruguay in some ways the way to look here,
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 4: but their minus two twenty on the money line on
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 4: the three way line.
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 2: One way that you could do this is to parlay.
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 2: I mean I hate parlays.
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 4: You could harley Uruguay as a minus two twenty favorite
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 4: with some other favorite that you like on the board
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 4: in that price range, maybe something like that, or maybe
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 4: do it with like an upcoming match maybe I don't know,
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 4: I haven't really handicapped any of the upcoming matches here,
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 4: but something like that. But I think Uruguay wins this game.
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 4: You could go over their team total. I think their
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 4: team total is actually pretty low. I think it's like
• 1:52:20
  Speaker 4: one and a half. But I think you have to
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 4: go like you're paying juice on the over minus one
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 4: and a half. But it seems reasonable ish if you
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 4: want to go Uruguay over their team total here. That
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 4: makes some sense here to me after they only scored
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 4: one goal against Saudi Araba. But Uruguay, I don't think
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 4: they're the greatest offensive team though, or you could.
• 1:52:41
  Speaker 2: Lay the spread with them.
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 4: I think you could lay like minus one and a
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 4: half with them on the on the goal line and
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 4: get them to win.
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 2: By two goals.
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 4: It's a little bit dicey though, in what might be
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 4: a low scoring game.
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 2: So we will see.
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 4: And then New Zealand and Egypt, and neither of these
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 4: teams are that good. But Egypt is minus one seventy
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 4: on the three way line here. I don't think New
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 4: Zealand is very good. Egypt is coming in from Seattle,
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 4: I believe, so they're only going from Seattle to Vancouver.
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 4: New Zealand, I believe, is coming up from Inglewood, California,
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 4: so New Zealand's traveling up the whole West coast. Egypt
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 4: is only coming in for Seattle, so they're staying in
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 4: the Pacific Northwest.
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 2: So the travel spot's a little bit better for Egypt.
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: Both teams could be in letdown spots, so because they're
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 4: both coming up big performances against teams that were favored
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 4: against some New Zealand against Iran with the draw, Egypt
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 4: drew Belgium, but I think Egypt is in the bigger letdown.
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 2: Spot off of that.
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 4: And you know, I pointed out that both matches were
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 4: not that misleading, like Belgium and Iran both did not
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 4: play well in those games. And I think the Egypt
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 4: doing it to Belgium I think was a little bit
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 4: bigger though, because they're considered to be the better team
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 4: than Iran obviously, which they are, so I think that
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 4: was a bigger deal for Egypt. So maybe fading Egypt
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 4: here in some way maybe worth a look. But New
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 4: Zealand is putrid, dude, So I don't know that I
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 4: want anything to do in New Zealand. I think that
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 4: game against Iran says more about Iran than it does
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 4: about New Zealand. I think it is telling you Iran
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 4: is just not that good, more so than that New
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 4: Zealand is actually good.
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 2: I don't think they are. I don't know, man.
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 4: I mean, maybe you could look towards a win draw
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 4: type of situation win or draw for New Zealand here
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 4: you probably get it about plus one forty something here.
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 4: I still wouldn't want to do it though. I don't
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 4: trust New Zealand. I don't think they're good. And that's
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 4: gonna do it, man, those are all the place for today.
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 4: We have Giants San Francisco Giants first five spread minus
• 1:54:40
  Speaker 4: half run on the run line.
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 2: That's the first baseball play.
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 4: The second baseball plays first five under three and a
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 4: half in Blue Jays, Cubs WNBA, Sparks plus five LA
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 4: and put a little bit on the money line as well. Obviously,
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 4: whenever you're taking an underdog like that, I recommend ten
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 4: percent on the money line.
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 2: When it's a small dog.
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 4: Like that and Spain team total over, it should be
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 4: the first game that happens here. Hopefully we can get
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 4: that done. Let's get a let's have another winning day here, man,
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 4: let's do it. I know it's a big, big team
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 4: total there, but I think Spain comes out in a
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 4: big way. I think they're gonna score a bunch of
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 4: goals in that one, So let's get it done. U plus,
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 4: they need to because the goal differential is gonna matter
• 1:55:20
  Speaker 4: too if there's a tie, a tie breaker somewhere, so
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 4: they're gonna be motivated to score here, so that helps
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 4: as well.
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 2: That's gonna do it.
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 4: Learn it tone on Twitter, Learn it tone on Instagram,
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 4: like subscribe to the channel here, tell everybody about it.
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 4: Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, everything covered in yuke
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 4: on YouTube, my ukulele cover channel.
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 2: You can check that.
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 4: Out, Paedreon dot com, slash learn a tone if you
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 4: want to support me that way, Loser Cast every Tuesday night,
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 4: and The Giants g Spot podcast, New York Giants. That's
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 4: gonna do it. Go check out my appearance on the
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 4: pick is In podcast earlier this week. I tweeted it out.
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 4: You can find them on YouTube and whatever. You can
• 1:56:01
  Speaker 4: check that out too if you want to watch that conversation.
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 4: It was a fun conversation, some betting, more about like
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 4: our sports rooting history and stuff like that. That's gonna
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 4: do it. I appreciate everybody. Have a good Sunday, peace,
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 4: Happy Father's Day.
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the flow.
• 1:56:20
  Speaker 1: Your name, steal meeds something to somebody for show. Put
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 3: No hold on, hold on nothingne no hold on, hold on.
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 2: Let me for.
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 3: That bite.
• 1:56:53
  Speaker 1: But it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on,
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 1: stay with me now
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 4: H