Latest / Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life / What 4.3 Months of Supply Means for SCV Homeowners

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What 4.3 Months of Supply Means for SCV Homeowners · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: There are 147 open houses in the Santa Clarita Valley today, and 105 of them earn Valencia loan.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: So somebody's going to walk into one this afternoon and they're going to look at the price on the flyer.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: They're going to decide right there what their own house down the straight is worth.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: And almost every number in that person's head this morning is a number from the past.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: Put one rule in your pocket for me, please.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Diagnose before you prescribe a market statistic and start a conversation, but it can't tell one homeowner what to do.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: Well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: Whenever you happen to be tuning in, this is Santa Clarita Open Houses Daily.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: This is the show.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: Every figure I read you came off of my site at Santa ClaritaOpenhouses.com.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: At 601 this morning, Saturday, September 12th, 2026.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: I pulled it straight out of the CRMS MLS feed I have enabled on the site, and it is on that site right now if you want to check my work.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: Freddie Mac, Thursday, published its weekly survey.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's on September 10th.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: A few days ago, a couple days ago, the 30-year fix came in at 6.76%.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: Now, don't move on because you know they're in the sevens.
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_00: I'm explaining that right now.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_00: So that's where that came in.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: It came up from 6.71% the week before and 6.35 a year ago.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Now that's the number the news read Thursday and the number your neighbor quotes you tonight.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: But Freddie Mac surveys lenders across several days and publishes an average.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: So by the time you hear it, it's describing a week that already ended.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: Mortgage News Daily tracks that same 30-year fixed every day.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Monday the 8th, 6.89%.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: Tuesday the 9th, 6.97%.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: Thursday the 10th, 7.07.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Friday the 11th.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Yesterday, 7.12.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: So the survey everybody quotes says 6.76%.
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: And the desk that actually locks your loan was at 7.12 when the week actually finished up and closed.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: That's 36 basis points between the headline and the paper.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: And on the Valley's 30-day median sales price of$800,000 with 20% down.
• 2:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's a$640,000 loan.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: At 6.76%, the principal and interest is$4,155 a month.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: At 7.12%, it's$4,310 a month.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: The gap between the rate you heard and the rate you would sign is$154 a month,$1,852 a year.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Inside that one week, the daily number went from$6.89 to$7.12, which is$99 a month on that same loan.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: The buyer who waited four days to lock lost$99 a month for 30 years without doing one thing wrong.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: I want to name this because it's the whole show today and it's not really about mortgages.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: Call it the lag.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: The lag is the distance between the number you're deciding and the number the market is actually running on right now.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody here is carrying one.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: The buyer carries a rate from Thursday.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: The seller carries a comp from March.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Both think that they're actually current.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: And here's the board as of this morning.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: 838 active listings, 101 in backup, 195 in escrow, nine coming soon, 35 homes closed in the last seven days, 199 in the last 30, and 1,388 over six months.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Against last Saturday, active inventory is up 16.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Escrow's are up three, and last week's closings are down three.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: This is a market breathing, not a market breaking.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now divide that 838 active number by 199 closings in 30 days, and you get a 4.2 months of supply.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Under four, that's a seller's market.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: Four to six is a balanced market over six, a buyer's market.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: So the valley overall sits balanced right on the line.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Except nobody sells the valley.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: You actually sell a house.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: What type of house is what matters more this morning than the city it actually is sitting inside of?
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Single family, 494 active, 150 closed in the last 30 days.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: These are single active homes.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: 3.3 months, that's a seller's market.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Condos, however, 2.4 active, 24 closed, 8.9 months, a buyer's market, and it's not even close.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: Town homes, 112 active, 24 closed, 4.7 months, that's a balanced market.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: Think about two people in the same street.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: The house is in a seller's market.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: The condo that sits behind it has more than twice the supply.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Completely different negotiation.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Over 12 months, 35.2% single family sellers closed above asking against 20% for condos, and they did it in a median of 11 days versus 35.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Here's where averages need context, and it's the most important thing I'm gonna say this morning.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: So watch that share of sellers closing above asking across three windows over 180 days.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: 31.5% over 90 days, that's 29%.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last 30 days, 28.6%.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: Below asking runs the other way, 45.1% over 180 days, 46.9 over 90, and 48.1 over the last 30 days.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: And one more signal that the share that made at least one price adjustment from where it originally listed, 35.1% over 180 days, 39% over 90, 41.3% over the last 30, three measurements of the same market at three distances point to more negotiation, more selectivity.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: Now, they don't prove that every unsold home needs the same prescription, however.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: That is not a crash.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: Look at the size of it.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: We went from roughly three sellers in 10, going over asking, to a little under three in 10.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's a drift, not a cliff.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: A homeowner at 50 days has not automatically made a mistake.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: Ask what buyers compared it with and what showings revealed, what competition arrived and whether the seller's timing changed.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's a diagnosis before prescription.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last 12 months, 1,316 Valley Sales had an original list on file.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: 462 included at least one adjustment.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: Now it's 35.1%, about one in three.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: The median adjustment was 30 grand or 4% off the original.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Homes without an adjustment sold in the median of 13 days.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: Homes with an adjustment sold in the median of 63 days.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: The difference is real, but it's not a verdict.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: The 63-day group can include unusual homes, thin buyer pools, slower pockets, changing rates, or sellers choosing patience over speed.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: Among completed sales, homes without an adjustment closed in a median of 100% of asking.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: Homes with an adjustment closed at 99.3% of their final asking and 94.9% of their original list.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: That's correlation, not cause.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: The data tells us what happens across a group.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't tell us why one house is still available, and it cannot prove the first price was wrong without the property level evidence.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: A price change can be right.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: So can better presentation, access, marketing, condition, patience, or holding steady when the evidence supports it.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: The job is not to frighten a homeowner into movement, it's to explain the choices, carrying cost and trade-offs so the sellers can decide.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_00: 35 homes closed here in the last seven days.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's real families, real keys.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: The 30-day median is$800,000.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: The 90-day is$800,800, and the$180 day is$802,000.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that price has moved less than 1% across half a year.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: It's going sideways, it's not going down.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus has 105 active and closed 40 in 30 days.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: 2.4 months, that's the tightest city in the valley.
• 7:46
  SPEAKER_00: A real seller's market.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia, 3.4 months, and its price per square foot is up 3.6% in 90 days.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_00: In Castac over the last 90 days, 49% of sellers closed above asking.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: That's the highest in the valley.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: Castac has the fewest listings at 60 days or more, 22%.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: Castac warns against using a valley average like a hammer.
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: Nearly half of the 90-day closings finished above asking.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yet a lake area pocket one side of the freeway or a thin price band can move more slowly.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: Small buyer pools arrive in waves.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now let me look closely at Canyon Country because I told you yesterday I would, and because the broad number, of course, it shows how easily a broad number can hide in the mix underneath it.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_00: Canyon Country this morning, 189 active, 15 in backup, 49 in escrow, zero coming soon, and five closings in the last seven days.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: 35 in the last 30.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: That's 5.4 months of supply.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's balance.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: That's softer than softer than Valencia and much softer than Saugus.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: Dare I say, flaccid.
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: The 30-day median, there's$800,000, dead even with the Valley.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: Days on market runs 40 against the Valley's 33.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: Over the last 90 days, Canyon Country's median price per square foot went from 436 in the first half of that window to 386 in the second half.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: That's down 11.5%.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, the median sales price went from$770,000 to$750.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: That's down 2.6%.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: Price per square foot fell more than four times, harder than the median.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's not the same house getting 11% cheaper.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's a change in what's selling.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: The site says it out loud.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: This is the right way to think.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: A plain median moves when a mix of homes sold changes, even if not one home changed in value.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: Price per foot is the check on that.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: So the real story is buyers there getting more square footage for the same money.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: That 383 a foot over the last 30 days, Canyon Country is the cheapest square foot of any major city in this valley.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia is 427, SAG is 416.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: Canyon Country, excuse me, Stevenson Ranch 439.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Canyon Country is where this valley goes to buy space.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: And when your payment just went up 154 a month because the rate moved, space per dollar is exactly what you start shopping for.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: This doesn't mean Canyon Country owners lost 11.5%.
• 10:10
  SPEAKER_00: It means bigger homes made up more of the sales.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: Same city, different mix, completely different headline, depending on which number you grab.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: At 59 of Canyon County's 189 listings, they've been available for 60 days or more.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: That's 31%.
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_00: And that measures time, not seller urgency, marketing quality, condition, or value.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: Valley wide, 257 of 838 active listings have been on the market 60 days or longer.
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: That means longer marketing periods are part of this market.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't mean 257 homeowners have failed.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: Now longer time frames are more common in Aquadol San Acton, where the buyer pools are naturally thinner.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: Castac and Saugus show fewer 60-day listings.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: Geography, product type, access, buyer depth all matter before price becomes the answer.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: In the last seven days, since September 6, 91 sellers made price adjustments, totaling$2,518,054, an average of$27,671.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_00: That tells us one lever is being used.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't tell us whether it should be pulled on the house down the street.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_00: Only four sellers raised a price, and 18 homes returned after escrow.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_00: Competition rates showing patterns and seller priorities belong in the same conversation.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: Now, who's actually buying these houses?
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: Because that decides whether your escrow closes over 12 months, 2,537 closings with a loan type on file.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: And we were doing some research on SATA 3 to open houses.
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: This is the breakdown.
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: Conventional, 59.9% at a median of 29 days and median close of$829, excuse me,$825,000.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: FHA is 12.3% at 37 days and 745,000 cash, 10.7% at 32 days and 730,000.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: VA is 5.4%, and VA buyers are the fastest group in the valley at 26-day closings.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: Look at the cash line again, because it kills a myth.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: Cash buyers close at a median of 98.7% of asking.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_00: Every other group, FHA and VA included, closes at a median of 100%.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: The cash buyer isn't paying up for speed.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: The cash buyer is buying the discount.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're a seller who believes a cash offer is automatically the best offer, 12 months of data says a cash offer is typically a lower offer, and you're not being paid in certainty, not in dollars.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: I know those websites where we get cash offers for your properties are going to freak out on this, but that's the data.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: There are two dates next week that matter more than anything on the board.
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_00: The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index yesterday morning, Friday, September 11th.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: Government figures prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over 12 months.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: Core rose 2.4% over the year, and shelter rose 3%.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: Headline inflation at 3.4% is well above the Fed's 2% target, and mortgage rates climbed all week into that print.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's the market voting before the vote.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: And the Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15th and 16th.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's off the Federal Reserve Zone calendar, and it carries a full summary of economic projections.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: Now I don't know what they're going to do.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: Neither does anybody sending you a prediction this weekend.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: What I'll tell you though is that mortgage rates usually move on the projections and the press conference, not on the decision itself.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: For context, Realtor.com's August data for Los Angeles, Long Beach and Anaheim shows 16.6% of active listings with a price adjustment.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Useful context, but still too broad to diagnose one Santa Clarita specific home.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_00: One history beat because the lag has a longer version, too.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: The 10-year almanac on the site, the one that I built, it's amazing, and it's built on six cities of CRMLS data, says that since 2017, Cannon Country is up 57%.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: Newhall's up 55%, Valencia 54%, Saugus 51, Castank 50, and Stevenson Ranch 41.
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_00: In all of 2025, the Valley closed 3,120 homes.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: Right now we're closing 199 every 30 days and 1,388 every six months, which annualizes somewhere between 2400 and 2800.
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_00: So volume is running roughly 15 to 20% under last year, while prices sit flat.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that's the signature of a rate-locked market, not a distressed one.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_00: People are not losing their houses.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: They're just refusing to trade a 3% mortgage for a 7%.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: And who can blame them?
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_00: It means a 2021 story needs to be updated for today's financing and buyer behavior.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't mean the seller must surrender.
• 14:50
  SPEAKER_00: It means the strategy has to live in the current market.
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: Open houses, 147 posted today.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: 130 are going to be held tomorrow.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: That number's probably going to go up a little bit.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: Just got to get on Santa ClaritaOpenhouses.com and watch it change.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: 277 across the weekend.
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia 105, Canyon Country 54, Sagas 50, New Hall 29, Castillac 19.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_00: Come see me.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: We do buyer classes on the hours.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: So if I'm starting at noon, we'll have one and we'll have one at 1 p.m.
• 15:21
  SPEAKER_00: and another one at 2 p.m.
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: Come one, come all.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: Stevenson Ranch 14, Santa Clarita 8, Acton 6, Aqua Dulce 2.
• 15:29
  SPEAKER_00: Check the timing.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: 183 of them sit in the 12 to 2, window 66 in the morning 36 from 2 to 4.
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: If you want an agent's actual attention, and if you don't have your own agent, that's that's kind of that variable there.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: But go early or after 3, not at 1 o'clock with everybody else.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: People ask the site real questions this week.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: So let me get to two of them very simply.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_00: Is now a good time to sell in Santa Clarita?
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: Of course.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: For a single family home, 3.3 months of supply is supportive.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: For a condo, 8.9 months means more competition and a longer probable runway.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: In either case, the answer depends on the property and competing choices.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: Now the seller's timing and the plan.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: Price is one lever, but it's not the entire machine.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus versus Valencia.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus 30-day median is$835,000 at$416 a foot.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: 35 days on market.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia is$801,427 a foot, 24 days.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus costs more per house.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia more per square foot.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_00: And Valencia sells 11 days faster.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_00: So here's the one thing to do with all of this today.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: Whatever number you're about to decide with this weekend, ask how old it is, your rate quote, and what day it was priced, your comp.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_00: Ask what month it closed, your neighbor's story, ask what year it happened, and then who the likely buyer is.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: What else can they purchase?
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: What the showings revealed, what competition arrived, whether the seller values speed, certainty, convenience, or protecting a number.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: That's how data becomes advice without becoming an accusation.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: Tomorrow I'm going to be looking closely at New Hall, where 6.2 months of supply, longer marketing times, a shifting sales myths, and 2.3% VA share may be telling several different stories.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_00: We'll separate them before we draw a conclusion.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: Everything I read to you is live on Santa Clarita, openhouses.com.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, updated all day, every several minutes or so, free.
• 17:24
  SPEAKER_00: And there's no form in front of it.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Connor with honor.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see you out there.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_00: Come see me at the open house today on Wilderness in Castac.
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: I'll see you tomorrow.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: Be well.