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Trump Says US May Strike Iran Again · Balance of Power

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Speaker 2: We are now basically at seventy five dollars a barrel
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Speaker 2: on WTI. Brent is nearing eighty dollars a barrel of
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Speaker 2: six and a half percent on the day, just shy
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Speaker 2: of seventy nine as we speak. On, of course, renewed
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Speaker 2: hostilities in the Middle East and around the Strait of
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Speaker 2: horn Mews specifically, of course, we saw yesterday around striking
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Speaker 2: three commercial vessels in the Strait of Horror Mows, and
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Speaker 2: in response US Central Command conducted a number of strikes
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Speaker 2: against Iranian targets, and President Trump, speaking in Ankara, Turkey today,
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Speaker 2: suggested that more strikes could come again tonight. While he
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Speaker 2: pushed by on the idea of the war completely restarting,
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Speaker 2: he also said that he views the ceasefire and the
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Speaker 2: Memorandum of Understanding as essentially being over at this point,
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Speaker 2: and that he does not have a lot of confidence
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Speaker 2: in the way negotiations could move forward from here. He
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Speaker 2: says he wants to finish the job in Iran. Yes,
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Speaker 2: it's just not clear that a deal is going to
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Speaker 2: be what finishes it. This is what the President told
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Speaker 2: the press earlier today.
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Speaker 3: Based on their actions over the last week or two,
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Speaker 3: they're not doing a service to the people.
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Speaker 4: And I think more than anything.
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Speaker 2: Else is I got to know him, and I'm not
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Speaker 2: sure I want to make a deal with him.
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Speaker 3: We can play games, but I'm not sure I want
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Speaker 3: to make a deal. Let's just finish the job.
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Speaker 5: The president adding that Iran wants to make a deal,
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Speaker 5: but quote, they don't know how to make a deal.
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Speaker 5: Referring to the fact that he says they're working with
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Speaker 5: very fine people, Wikoff, Jared jd Vance, Marco and Scott Kaylee,
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Speaker 5: he said, quote they're a little loco, They're a little crazy,
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Speaker 5: which is nice so than what he said earlier in
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Speaker 5: the day following his bilateral with the Secretary General of NATO.
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Speaker 5: The ceasefire, when he said was done. At that time,
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Speaker 5: the MoU he said, was dead, and he referred to
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Speaker 5: the leaders of Iran as liars, cheats, and sick people.
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Speaker 5: Kayley said they are scum, which makes you wonder how
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Speaker 5: exactly you pick up talks from here.
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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, he suggested he will allow of the negotiators
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Speaker 2: you just mentioned to continue the talks, but he's not
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Speaker 2: expressing much confidence in them at this point. And it
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Speaker 2: is also striking Joe that we are now having a
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Speaker 2: conversation based almost entirely around Iran in the aftermath of
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Speaker 2: the President's attendants of the NATO summit, on a day
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Speaker 2: that it very well could have been all about Ukraine.
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Speaker 2: It was not just a bilateral meeting that the President
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Speaker 2: had with the NATO Secretary General, also the Syrian president
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Speaker 2: and also Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelinsky. As the US said,
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Speaker 2: it will allow the licensing of patriot missile systems to
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Speaker 2: be made inside Ukraine, know when Ukraine has a desperate
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Speaker 2: need for those, and the US says effectively, right now,
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Speaker 2: at least there aren't enough to go around.
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Speaker 5: And where have we heard that before? If it was
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Speaker 5: twenty four hours ago on this program that we heard
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Speaker 5: this from the Atlantic Council, If you were with us
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Speaker 5: yesterday on Balance of Power, you saw this coming a
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Speaker 5: pretty remarkable turn there, that this technology will be licensed
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Speaker 5: to Ukraine, and the President was asked about the potential
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Speaker 5: for a reciprocal deal for US to license Ukrainian drone technology.
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Speaker 5: He was more than open to that. So that actually
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Speaker 5: could end up happening. After what Melinda Herring floated here
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Speaker 5: on the program yesterday, we're actually seeing it come to fruition,
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Speaker 5: which could be, by the way, the biggest news that
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Speaker 5: came out of the summit.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it very well could. We also are wondering if
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Speaker 2: we're going to get similar news around weaponry when it
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Speaker 2: comes to Turkey. In particular, the President had some very
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Speaker 2: warm words for Turkey under the leadership of President Erdowan
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Speaker 2: suggested that he may like to see a return for
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Speaker 2: Turkey to the F thirty five program. He was pressed
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Speaker 2: about that in the press conference as well.
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Speaker 5: Well, let's bring an am Marie Hordern. She's made her
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Speaker 5: way to Bloomberg's cameras in Ankara, having been inside the
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Speaker 5: room with President Trump for that news conference that we
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Speaker 5: brought you live in our last hour here on Bloomberg,
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Speaker 5: our chief political correspondent on the case. As the sun
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Speaker 5: sets over Ankara, and Marie, there are a lot of questions,
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Speaker 5: as of course, you're asking as well, coming from the markets,
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Speaker 5: coming from investors, coming from Americans who thought there was
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Speaker 5: a ceasefire in place. Is the President serious when he
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Speaker 5: says it's over.
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Speaker 1: Well, I think a.
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Speaker 6: Lot of people left that room a little bit confused,
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Speaker 6: because earlier this morning the President was very emphatic and
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Speaker 6: said the ceasefire is over. They can keep talking. He
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Speaker 6: thinks it's a waste of time hot rhetoric about the regime,
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Speaker 6: saying they are quote scum and a bunch of their cuckoo. Now,
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Speaker 6: the President, when he was pressed by reporters, he had
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Speaker 6: this line work. He said, he doesn't think it's going
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Speaker 6: to start again. I think it's going to go very quickly.
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Speaker 6: They hit a couple of ships, and so we hit
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Speaker 6: that much harder on the heels of Also, before that
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Speaker 6: press conference, in one of the bilateral meetings, says he
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Speaker 6: will quote probably strike around again tonight. We left with
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Speaker 6: a very fragile ceasefire. Are we going back to full
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Speaker 6: fledged war? It feels like we're in this moment of
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Speaker 6: just a continuation of a stalemate that has tit for
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Speaker 6: tet skirmishes, whether it's issues at the negotiating table or
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Speaker 6: actual issues in the Strait of Hormuz, which is why
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Speaker 6: a lot of individuals in the room and also in
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Speaker 6: the financial markets are perplexed about what is the path
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Speaker 6: forward when it comes to the conflict of Iran.
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Speaker 2: Well, and having heard previously from the President, including at
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Speaker 2: the G seven, the suggestion that you need the conflict
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Speaker 2: with Iran rap for the President to fully turn his
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Speaker 2: attention to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. We did
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Speaker 2: get news on that today Arie with the licensing agreement
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Speaker 2: that the US is going to allow Ukraine to make
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Speaker 2: their own Patriot missile systems. Effectively, that's been overshadowed by
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Speaker 2: the recent news on Iran in his recent comments.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, it was certainly overshadowed because the US US had
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Speaker 6: strike last night on Iran as well as lifting those
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Speaker 6: OPAC waivers when it comes to Ron's ability to ship
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Speaker 6: oil on the open market. That was massive news in
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Speaker 6: terms of the conflict in Ukraine and a major win
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Speaker 6: for President Vladimir Zelenski, who coming into this conflict, was
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Speaker 6: talking about that he was having trouble really fending off
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Speaker 6: the ballistic missiles from Russia. He needs more of the
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Speaker 6: defense systems, he needs the Patriot missile systems, And there's
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Speaker 6: been discussion for months now whether or not the US
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Speaker 6: would allow Ukraine just to produce these missiles in country.
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Speaker 6: And the President looked over to President Zelenski at the
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Speaker 6: top of that bilateral meeting and said, I think I'm
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Speaker 6: going to give you that license. Now we need a
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Speaker 6: lot more details on this. How long is it going
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Speaker 6: to take to train individuals to make this? How long
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Speaker 6: from start to finish? Could we see Ukraine actually have
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Speaker 6: a patriot defense missile. But that is a major breakthrough
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Speaker 6: and something a lot of NATO countries wanted to see.
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Speaker 6: I spoke with the finished president yesterday, Alexander Stube the
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Speaker 6: American media. He's known as one of these close allies
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Speaker 6: to President Trump and individual has gone golfing with him,
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Speaker 6: and he really wanted to see and said that would
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Speaker 6: be a welcome development. He really wanted to see NATO
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Speaker 6: deliver on that. So that was a win for Zelensky,
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Speaker 6: But a lot of wins have been really, as you mentioned, Kaylee,
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Speaker 6: hanging under the radar because the conflict in Iran has
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Speaker 6: overshadowed the summit.
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Speaker 2: Indeed, it has all right Bloomberg's and Mariy Hordern reporting
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Speaker 2: live from Ankara, Anne Marie, thank you, and safe travels home.
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Speaker 2: Of course, as we consider the president's own travels home
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Speaker 2: is not going to be a board the new Air
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Speaker 2: Force one that was gifted to him from Cutter. He's
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Speaker 2: going back on the old one, as we've noted for
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Speaker 2: our audience. But we want to get more insight now
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Speaker 2: into what exactly is happening between the US and Iran
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Speaker 2: and whether there will be a resumption of the war,
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Speaker 2: which President Trump is suggesting against. As we turned to
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Speaker 2: Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for
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Speaker 2: International Peace and a twenty four year veteran of the
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Speaker 2: State Department, Aaron, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio.
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Speaker 2: Would you call this a resumption of war if the
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Speaker 2: President is saying that the MoU is dead and the
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Speaker 2: ceasefire is over.
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Speaker 3: You know, at some level, I don't know if anyone
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Speaker 3: should be surprised by it is a flawed military campaign
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Speaker 3: has produced a flawed memoryan of understanding which has produced
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Speaker 3: a flawed process of implementation in which the Iranians believe,
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Speaker 3: probably correctly, that they have come out of a five
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Speaker 3: month on and off war with more assets and a
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Speaker 3: greater resolve to continue. So there have only been three
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Speaker 3: out three possible outcomes to this. One return to full
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Speaker 3: scale war. I don't see that happening. A second is
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Speaker 3: a breakthrough in negotiations, which would take weeks, if not
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Speaker 3: months to come to fru issuing. And then the third issue,
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Speaker 3: which I think you're watching play out, a kind of
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Speaker 3: new normal, which will be episodic use of economic and
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Speaker 3: kinetic power by both Iran and the United States against
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Speaker 3: one another. The Straits, of course, remain fraught and probably
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Speaker 3: will not return to the condition they were in on
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Speaker 3: February twenty seventh February twenty eighth, and this could go
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Speaker 3: on for quite some time. I'm reminded of the of
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Speaker 3: what the Taliban said to the Americans in Afghanistan. You
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Speaker 3: may have the clock, but we have the time. And
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Speaker 3: I think the Iranians actually do believe that they're in
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Speaker 3: a better position to protect their core requirements, and one
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Speaker 3: critical core requirement is making sure that their new rules
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Speaker 3: of transit apply to the Straits of removes.
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Speaker 5: What's the impact of the rhetoric eron Presumably Steve Whitcoff
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Speaker 5: and Jared Kushner will get back to a table with
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Speaker 5: some whether it's direct or indirect, at some point with Iran,
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Speaker 5: the president call them scum loco, crazy sick people. Does
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Speaker 5: that resonate?
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Speaker 3: I mean, look here now, in almost the sixth day,
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Speaker 3: right of the funeral burial of the Laidlihamedy, most of
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Speaker 3: the and his son has not been seen. He's supposed
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Speaker 3: to attend the actual burial of his father tomorrow in Mashad.
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Speaker 3: The fact that may or may not occur because of
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Speaker 3: the recent uptaking kinetic activity. I mean, this guy saw
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Speaker 3: his mother and his wife and at least one of
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Speaker 3: his children killed during those Israelian US strikes in February
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Speaker 3: twenty eight. What do you suppose he thinks if, in
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Speaker 3: fact he is a supreme leader with confidence and control,
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Speaker 3: that's unclear right now? What do you suppose he thinks
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Speaker 3: of Donald Trump in the United States? I mean, I
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Speaker 3: suspect this is only going to harden their views and
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Speaker 3: increase their risk readiness rather than the risk aversion when
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Speaker 3: it comes to confronting the United States.
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Speaker 2: Well, so let's talk about the nuclear program as well,
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Speaker 2: because we've heard the argument frequently since this conflict began
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Speaker 2: that it actually may just reinforce to aron the idea
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Speaker 2: that it needs to pursue a nuclear weapon. The President
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Speaker 2: in this news conference has contended that effectively, Iran isn't
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Speaker 2: going to be able to have a nuclear weapon because
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Speaker 2: it's so buried underground the nuclear dust, that only the
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Speaker 2: United States would be able to access it in the
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Speaker 2: first place, and they would just blow up anyone that tried.
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Speaker 2: Is that enough to guarantee that iron will never have
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Speaker 2: a nuclear weapon?
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Speaker 3: No, it's not. I mean capacity and knowledge are the
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Speaker 3: two ingredients, and the Iranians have both. There's no question
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Speaker 3: though that from a tactical point of view, is there
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Speaker 3: Reelly in US strikes has fundamentally degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure
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Speaker 3: and put more time on the clock. They talk about
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Speaker 3: breakout time on the eve of this war. The breakout time,
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Speaker 3: that is to say, the time required for the Iranians
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Speaker 3: to actually have all of the elements required to make
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Speaker 3: a weapon, the fystal material to computer modeling, miniaturizing the ward,
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Speaker 3: the delivery system was a matter of months. I think
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Speaker 3: that breakout time has now increased. It's probably well into
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Speaker 3: a year plus, maybe even longer. But again I'm reminded
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Speaker 3: of the Afghan notion. You have the clock, but we
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Speaker 3: have the time. This regime has endured military campaigns by
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Speaker 3: the world's most powerful military of the US and the
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Speaker 3: region's most powerful military, the Israeli Defense Forces. Not only
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Speaker 3: has that has it survived, but now has a new,
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Speaker 3: arguably nuclear weapon which is weaponizing the straits of her
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Speaker 3: moves that, in my judgment, in the end, will be
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Speaker 3: the ultimate indicator of who quote won or lost this war.
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Speaker 3: And frankly, the Iranians will go to extreme lengths to
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Speaker 3: ensure that new rules apply to the straits. Preferential access,
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Speaker 3: prescribed roots, navigation fees, environmental fees. It'll be a protection
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Speaker 3: racket to force shippers and oil exporters to pay. And
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Speaker 3: you know Panama Canal and Suez, those are man made
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Speaker 3: transit points. They reap anywhere from what far to ten
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Speaker 3: billion dollars a year. You're not supposed to charge tolls
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Speaker 3: in a natural waterway according to international law. But the
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Speaker 3: fact is I saw one calculation. Iranians, if you take
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Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty ships on a day to day
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Speaker 3: basis charged a two million a ship three hundred sixty
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Speaker 3: five days a year. I mean we could be talking
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Speaker 3: multiple billions of dollars, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Islamic
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Speaker 3: Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, which is controlling this, sees this
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Speaker 3: as a as an ATM machine for their own narror
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Speaker 3: pursuits and use. I think this is the key problem
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Speaker 3: that the administration confronts. And the President is in a box,
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Speaker 3: and coming from the NATO meeting, he's in a box.
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Speaker 3: It seems to me all alone. We're the Chinese pressing
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Speaker 3: the Iranians. They import eighty to ninety percent of the
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Speaker 3: oale from the size of the Iranians where they how
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Speaker 3: come they're not present. Europeans, frankly have disappeared because the
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Speaker 3: President has criticized them and preempted them. But Trump is
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Speaker 3: in a box, and again I'll say it, he's all
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Speaker 3: by himself. I just don't see how they get how
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Speaker 3: this administration gets out of this without leaving the Straits
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Speaker 3: in with an enormous amount of control by the Islamic
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Speaker 3: Republic of Iran. And that's going to be key to
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Speaker 3: the international economy for many years to come, unto alternate
14:28
Speaker 3: infrastructure is developed, and of course to the global oil economy.
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Speaker 5: Always great to spend some time with you Aaron. Aaron
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Speaker 5: David Miller has the time and the clock at the
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Speaker 5: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thanks for being with us,
14:40
Speaker 5: as always on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We'll play this
14:43
Speaker 5: to the panel coming up next on Bloomberg. Rick Davis
14:46
Speaker 5: and Jeanie Shanzo Bloomberg Politics contributors. On an important day
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Speaker 5: for geopolitics and domestic politics. The President is heading for
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Speaker 5: the old Air Force One to make his way home.
14:56
Speaker 5: Now stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have
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Speaker 5: much more coming up after this.
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Speaker 2: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington on
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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio and on YouTube. And if you're
15:28
Speaker 2: with us on YouTube or on Bloomberg TV, we're showing
15:30
Speaker 2: you a live look now of the presidential motorcade just
15:33
Speaker 2: rolling up to Air Force One at the airport in Ankara.
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Speaker 2: After the conclusion of the NATO summit, hosted, of course
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Speaker 2: this year by Turkey. But the plane that the President
15:42
Speaker 2: just rolled up to in the beast is not the
15:45
Speaker 2: new Air Force One gifted to this president by Cutter,
15:49
Speaker 2: of course, painted in his preferred colors of navy blue
15:53
Speaker 2: instead of Robin Egg's blue. Robin's Egg blue. He's on
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Speaker 2: the old plane for his journey home. The new one
15:59
Speaker 2: instead is going to go to Europe and apparently be
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Speaker 2: showed to American troops on our European basis.
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Speaker 7: Joe.
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Speaker 2: He was asked about this in the press conference, he
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Speaker 2: gave it the conclusion of the summit, and he went
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Speaker 2: to a place of security concerns and previous attempts on
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Speaker 2: his life that Iran has sponsored. He suggested, I'm number one,
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Speaker 2: and this is a quote on the kill list for Roan,
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Speaker 2: going on to say they're lovely people. As he climbs
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Speaker 2: now the stairs of Air Force one, he.
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Speaker 5: Said, I like being number one on TikTok better Kailey,
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Speaker 5: and we should be careful to connect the dots on this.
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Speaker 5: The President didn't speak directly to that decision to take
16:36
Speaker 5: the old Air Force one home outside of what he
16:38
Speaker 5: had already written on truth social to your point, he
16:41
Speaker 5: said it'd be headed to Mildenhall Air Force Base in
16:43
Speaker 5: the UK to give our troops a tour of the aircraft.
16:47
Speaker 5: But he was repeatedly referring to the fact that he
16:51
Speaker 5: is number one on Iran's kill list. We do know
16:54
Speaker 5: that assassination squads from Iran have been in this country
16:58
Speaker 5: seeking to target the press president of the United States,
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Speaker 5: and it is clearly something that he is aware of,
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Speaker 5: repeatedly referring to the dangers that come with this job.
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Speaker 5: We have a lot to talk about with our political
17:09
Speaker 5: panel as the President wraps this NATO summit. We turned
17:12
Speaker 5: to Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis. Genie
17:16
Speaker 5: is our democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard
17:19
Speaker 5: Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick is a Republican strategist and
17:22
Speaker 5: partner at Stone Court Capital. We want to get to
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Speaker 5: the geopolitics involved here, guys. The President is saying earlier
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Speaker 5: that the cease fire is over. But Rick, if I
17:30
Speaker 5: could just ask you about this so we don't have
17:32
Speaker 5: to come back around to it, are you concerned to
17:35
Speaker 5: see the new air force one gifted by a Cutter
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Speaker 5: stay behind. There are worries that this may not have
17:42
Speaker 5: been clean and may not be a secure jet to
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Speaker 5: carry the president home from the Middle East.
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Speaker 3: Yeah.
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Speaker 4: Look, I'm highly confident that the traditional air force one
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Speaker 4: has been hardened in a way that the new jet
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Speaker 4: would not have had the time or the ability to
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Speaker 4: get done. When these things are customed aid for the
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Speaker 4: President of the United States at the beginning of the
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Speaker 4: construction process, they can do things to really fortify the plane,
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Speaker 4: which they should when you receive a gift like that
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Speaker 4: from Cutter, They're not going to strip it down and
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Speaker 4: refortify it in a way that is going to reflect
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Speaker 4: the kind of safety and security that the traditional or
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Speaker 4: forced wine gets. So flying around the United States, you're
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Speaker 4: reducing your threat level a lot. Flying overseas, I'm sure
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Speaker 4: the Secret Services said, let's stick with what we know
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Speaker 4: and the defensive measures that are on board. So I
18:33
Speaker 4: think as an ounce of prevention is probably what was
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Speaker 4: called for.
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Speaker 2: I see, well, it's incredible to consider. As I mentioned
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Speaker 2: Genie at the end of an answer when questioned about
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Speaker 2: the plane, the President did trail back to the threat
18:49
Speaker 2: against his life in Ron's previous desire to assassinate him.
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Speaker 2: He said that he's their number one kill target, ending
18:57
Speaker 2: his sentence with their lovely people after early or suggesting
19:00
Speaker 2: that they were cuckoo locals gum loco to name a few,
19:07
Speaker 2: suggesting repeatedly in the last twenty four hours. But he
19:09
Speaker 2: doesn't necessarily think they are people that can be negotiated with.
19:13
Speaker 2: His rhetoric, Genie would indicate that he's giving up on
19:15
Speaker 2: the diplomatic process. He says he's not even sure if
19:18
Speaker 2: he wants to make a deal. Even as he says
19:22
Speaker 2: he doesn't think the war is going to resume outright,
19:25
Speaker 2: he still declared the Memorandum of Understanding dead. So where
19:28
Speaker 2: does that leave us?
19:30
Speaker 8: Yeah, I have to say I seldom say I agree
19:33
Speaker 8: with Donald Trump, but I agree with him on the
19:35
Speaker 8: MoU being dead. I also agree with what he said
19:38
Speaker 8: three weeks ago when a prolonged war in the Middle
19:42
Speaker 8: East with Iran, the US, Israel and extending to the
19:46
Speaker 8: Gulf States would result in an economic catastrophe for the world.
19:51
Speaker 8: And you know, I don't think the United States is
19:54
Speaker 8: going to re engage militarily. But there's a reason we're
19:58
Speaker 8: not going to. It's because we tried a shooting war
20:01
Speaker 8: with Iran. We lost. We tried a blockade with Iran,
20:06
Speaker 8: we lost. We ended up settling for this MoU, which flawed,
20:11
Speaker 8: is an understatement of this MoU, and we're currently trying
20:14
Speaker 8: to work our way out of it, and it is
20:17
Speaker 8: dead at this point. And what's also happening, Kailey, is
20:21
Speaker 8: you've got one of the parties to these negotiations attacking
20:26
Speaker 8: several times the mediators. In what universe can you continue
20:31
Speaker 8: a negotiation when Iran is attacking Cutter repeatedly. They haven't
20:37
Speaker 8: attacked Pakistan yet, probably because they were an air war
20:40
Speaker 8: with them a few years ago. So that suggests that
20:44
Speaker 8: Iran wants to extend this war to the Gulf States,
20:48
Speaker 8: and that is an economic catastrophe for the world. And
20:53
Speaker 8: it suggests that we are not going to see anything
20:56
Speaker 8: but a continuation of this back and forth economic, political, diplomatic,
21:02
Speaker 8: and potential military back and forth between all of these
21:06
Speaker 8: countries for the long term now, which is exactly what
21:11
Speaker 8: we should have been trying to avoid all along, which
21:14
Speaker 8: is why in February and now, none of this what
21:17
Speaker 8: the United States and Israel did made any sense unless
21:20
Speaker 8: we were prepared to finish the job which makes troops
21:23
Speaker 8: on the ground, and we never were.
21:26
Speaker 5: So Jennie brings us back to what Aaron David Miller
21:28
Speaker 5: just said, which is the new normal. And Rick Davis,
21:32
Speaker 5: you could argue, realizing that we hit Iran pretty hard
21:36
Speaker 5: last night, that if you're back off here, nothing actually
21:39
Speaker 5: has changed. We've had continuous tit for tat strikes with
21:44
Speaker 5: Iran attacking boats and we shoot back, all under the
21:47
Speaker 5: guise of this sort of shooting cease fire, and nothing
21:52
Speaker 5: really in this world other than the President's rhetoric has
21:55
Speaker 5: changed with regard to the status of the MoU. Is
21:58
Speaker 5: that how you're looking.
21:59
Speaker 4: At this, Yes, it's very confused at this point. I
22:03
Speaker 4: applaud Donald Trump for saying that the MLU is an
22:06
Speaker 4: enforced because when we define success as getting a deal
22:10
Speaker 4: from Iran, it hands Iran all the leverage. I think
22:13
Speaker 4: that the President will rip up the MOLU for good.
22:17
Speaker 4: It didn't do anything for us and did a lot
22:19
Speaker 4: for Iran. If Iran attacked ships in the Golf, they
22:22
Speaker 4: should be responded to. There should be a guarantee by
22:26
Speaker 4: the United States escort ships through the Straight of Horn
22:29
Speaker 4: Moose to get oil out, minimizing the economic impact that
22:33
Speaker 4: Genie was just talking about, and if Iran resists, they
22:36
Speaker 4: should be met with serious force. Iran is the largest
22:40
Speaker 4: sponsor of state terrorism in the world, and we cannot
22:43
Speaker 4: treat them as a coequal in a negotiation to basically
22:49
Speaker 4: get them to start stop terrorizing the golf and I
22:53
Speaker 4: just think that this could be a step in the
22:55
Speaker 4: right direction. I would hope that the President would rescind
22:58
Speaker 4: his invitation to his negotiator to spend time continuing to
23:02
Speaker 4: talk about an incredibly flawed agreement, start fresh, secure the golf,
23:07
Speaker 4: get trade going back through there, and if they resist
23:10
Speaker 4: and try to interrupt the free flow of goods going
23:14
Speaker 4: through the Golf International waters, they should be handled accordingly.
23:18
Speaker 9: Well.
23:19
Speaker 2: Of course, it was the reopening of the Straight of
23:21
Speaker 2: four Moves that the President really was seeking and that
23:23
Speaker 2: the MoU was supposed to accomplish, and the idea that
23:28
Speaker 2: the Strait may not be free and clear for the
23:30
Speaker 2: time being is what has sent oil prices higher today.
23:33
Speaker 2: But there's also the consideration of Russia as we contend
23:36
Speaker 2: with what's happening not just in crude but in refined
23:39
Speaker 2: products as well, like diesel. As Russia announced today that
23:42
Speaker 2: it's banning diesel exports after a number of its refineries
23:46
Speaker 2: have been hit by Ukraine. This is actually something we
23:48
Speaker 2: were discussing yesterday prior to that announcement from Russia with
23:51
Speaker 2: oil strategist Tom close It. This is what he told us.
23:55
Speaker 7: The big story that's not getting covered that much are
23:58
Speaker 7: the drone strikes in Russia. You know, Russia has probably
24:01
Speaker 7: lost somewhere over a million barrels that day of capacity.
24:05
Speaker 7: Every week you see more large refineries in Russia set fire,
24:11
Speaker 7: and they're not going to be back anytime In twenty
24:13
Speaker 7: twenty six, it looks like Russia is going to see
24:16
Speaker 7: lower and lower refinery runs because Ukrainian drones are going
24:20
Speaker 7: to strike them. If the President really wants to impact
24:24
Speaker 7: the oil market right now, he would, you know, basically
24:28
Speaker 7: go twenty four to seven and try to get a
24:30
Speaker 7: peace steal for Ukraine in Russia.
24:34
Speaker 2: And Genie. President Trump did have a bilateral meeting today
24:37
Speaker 2: with the Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski and said that the
24:41
Speaker 2: US would be licensing Patriot missile systems for Ukraine to
24:45
Speaker 2: produce in country. Is this a sign that the President
24:48
Speaker 2: is ready to get a peace deal for Ukraine? More
24:51
Speaker 2: materially ready and more on Ukraine side perhaps than he was.
24:58
Speaker 8: You know, I think it's hard to say, because, of course,
25:01
Speaker 8: this has been a real sort of engagement in my
25:04
Speaker 8: view on the part of the President, and then a
25:06
Speaker 8: sort of lack of engagement, chastising Zelenski back and forth.
25:11
Speaker 8: So you know, I think this is part of the problem.
25:14
Speaker 8: You know, Trump's way of dealing with these international issues
25:19
Speaker 8: has been to keep people on their toes not know
25:22
Speaker 8: what to expect. But of course that can work in
25:25
Speaker 8: some places, but in other places it means you don't
25:29
Speaker 8: really know is Donald Trump going to follow through with
25:32
Speaker 8: what he says, is he going to engage long term?
25:36
Speaker 8: And you know, as we step back and look at
25:38
Speaker 8: whether it's Iran, whether it's Russia, and the issue of
25:41
Speaker 8: the economic impact and the price of oil, this is
25:45
Speaker 8: where the President was right again three weeks ago when
25:48
Speaker 8: he talked about the catastrophe economically. This is and it's
25:53
Speaker 8: not just the Iran, it's not just the straight issue.
25:56
Speaker 8: It's Russia as well. And unless it is addressed in total,
26:01
Speaker 8: and that is not going to just be something United
26:03
Speaker 8: States can do independently. We need our allies, we need
26:08
Speaker 8: all of our European NATO partners, and this is why
26:12
Speaker 8: I was happy to hear you a slightly nicer tone
26:14
Speaker 8: to NATO in this presser. But this has been a
26:17
Speaker 8: back and forth all year with the president and it
26:20
Speaker 8: leaves us in a difficult position economic.
26:22
Speaker 2: All right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, Sloomberg Politics contributors
26:26
Speaker 2: to both of them, thank you so much for joining us.
26:28
Speaker 2: And as we consider Russia and that diesel export ban, Yes,
26:31
Speaker 2: oil prices are moving higher today. I would point you
26:33
Speaker 2: to diesel futures too right now, up about ten and
26:36
Speaker 2: a half percent on the session. We'll have more headcron
26:39
Speaker 2: Balance of Power.
26:40
Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
26:42
Speaker 5: more coming up after this.
26:46
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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27:00
Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
27:05
Speaker 5: I don't know if the dip buyers are getting at it,
27:07
Speaker 5: but as Charlie made clear, stocks are pulling off their
27:09
Speaker 5: lows oil's pulling back from the highs. We want to
27:13
Speaker 5: go a little bit deeper under the hood right now
27:14
Speaker 5: with Noram, Melinda Bloomberg's markets correspondent, who is live at
27:19
Speaker 5: World headquarters in New York, Nora. It's great to have
27:22
Speaker 5: you with us here. I'm not sure what's getting your attention,
27:24
Speaker 5: but we're seeing obviously slightly improved conditions from where we
27:28
Speaker 5: started the day.
27:29
Speaker 9: Yeah, slightly improved. I was just looking at the S
27:31
Speaker 9: and P five hundred earlier, just hitting a few minutes
27:34
Speaker 9: ago a session high. So we are seeing a pairing
27:36
Speaker 9: of some of those earlier declines that, of course we
27:39
Speaker 9: saw sparked by President Donald Trump. But we are seeing
27:43
Speaker 9: in the market materials the worst performing group in the
27:45
Speaker 9: SMP five hundred. The best performing group right now though
27:49
Speaker 9: in the S and P five hundred is tech, interestingly,
27:52
Speaker 9: so we were seeing a bit of a risk on
27:53
Speaker 9: a risk rather off rally earlier in the session, but
27:56
Speaker 9: we are seeing some pockets of a bright spots where
28:00
Speaker 9: we are potentially seeing some profit taking, maybe some dip
28:04
Speaker 9: buyers here in the market right now.
28:07
Speaker 2: Well, especially after we saw really steep losses for a
28:10
Speaker 2: lot of the chip stocks yesterday. It's interesting to see
28:13
Speaker 2: that reversing today, Nora, but I guess that's just been
28:15
Speaker 2: the story as of late. Some days are good for
28:18
Speaker 2: the AI oriented trade and some days are not.
28:22
Speaker 9: Well, Kayley, it's been a bit of a push and pull.
28:24
Speaker 9: I honestly feel so dizzy just trying to keep up
28:27
Speaker 9: with chip makers and how investors are viewing tech right now.
28:30
Speaker 9: On the one hand, you have investors that are concerned
28:33
Speaker 9: that these companies have taken on way too much debt
28:36
Speaker 9: and maybe we've seen a rally in tech go too fast,
28:39
Speaker 9: too far, but I mean potentially. On the other end,
28:42
Speaker 9: you have people saying that, you know, tech is the
28:44
Speaker 9: way to go, and there are pockets of opportunity. But
28:47
Speaker 9: what I've been hearing from sources as well is that
28:49
Speaker 9: you know, a richly valued market is more vulnerable to
28:52
Speaker 9: some of the negative headlines that we've been seeing, so
28:54
Speaker 9: you will expect some of these things after a strong rally.
28:57
Speaker 9: As we think about the broader macro picture, investors are
29:00
Speaker 9: all still thinking about inflation, especially with these renewed fears
29:04
Speaker 9: about energy also supply disruptions potentially, and when we think
29:08
Speaker 9: about the strait of hor.
29:08
Speaker 5: Moves interesting to see in video move and higher today.
29:12
Speaker 5: It's actually doing better than we've seen in several sessions here,
29:15
Speaker 5: up three percent as China green light some sales of
29:19
Speaker 5: h two hundred chips microns getting a little bit of
29:21
Speaker 5: a bit. It was actually higher earlier and now down
29:25
Speaker 5: just a fraction of one percent. Infestrates are another story, Nora.
29:30
Speaker 5: They've been pretty sticky here and pretty stubborn when you
29:32
Speaker 5: look at the ten year holding well above four and
29:35
Speaker 5: a half four five seven, the two years at four
29:37
Speaker 5: twenty one. Obviously, the long bond has been holding well
29:40
Speaker 5: over five percent. This is keeping a lid on things.
29:43
Speaker 9: Huh, certainly, especially as we think about the bond market
29:46
Speaker 9: more broadly, in how investors are thinking about it. There
29:50
Speaker 9: in the equity market, we have been seeing, of course,
29:53
Speaker 9: still double digit gains if you look at the year
29:55
Speaker 9: to date scope for the NASDAC. So as we continue
29:57
Speaker 9: to keep an eye on tech, we're still seeing strength there.
30:01
Speaker 9: So while we have been seeing these headlines that have
30:03
Speaker 9: been rattling markets here and there, you are still seeing
30:06
Speaker 9: investors pushing through and along. And what I've also been
30:09
Speaker 9: hearing from my source is just the idea of maybe
30:12
Speaker 9: some short term volatility but not necessarily that reflecting on
30:16
Speaker 9: the broader landscape and outlook for the market more broadly.
30:22
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg Markets correspondent Nora Melinda, thank you so much.
30:26
Speaker 2: As Norah said, markets of being rattled by headlines here,
30:29
Speaker 2: specifically when they are coming from President Trump and when
30:32
Speaker 2: they are pertaining to Iran, as he declared the memory
30:35
Speaker 2: random of understanding dead, the ceasefire over and suggested that
30:41
Speaker 2: the US could once again strike Iran tonight. So for
30:44
Speaker 2: more we turn to the former chair of the House
30:46
Speaker 2: Financial Services Committee and former Speaker pro tem now Bloomberg
30:50
Speaker 2: Politics contributor Patrick McHenry. Mister Chairman, always good to have
30:54
Speaker 2: you as we consider this notion of resumed hostilities with Iran,
30:59
Speaker 2: even if the President and suggests that we're not going
31:01
Speaker 2: back to war outright. I would imagine if you're a
31:05
Speaker 2: member of the House or someone up for reelection in
31:07
Speaker 2: the Senate and your home right now, you're having to
31:11
Speaker 2: answer to this for your constituents, right. I would imagine
31:15
Speaker 2: that as we draw closer to the midterms, these kind
31:17
Speaker 2: of headlines only get harder for electeds to navigate.
31:22
Speaker 10: Yes, it's uncertain, uncertain for all of us watching this situation,
31:27
Speaker 10: but particularly jarring for those seeking reelection and trying to
31:32
Speaker 10: give your constituents a sense of certainty, especially about the
31:36
Speaker 10: cost of things in their life, particularly gas prices. It's
31:41
Speaker 10: very hard for an elected official to say that we're
31:44
Speaker 10: in much better shape than we otherwise should be, given
31:48
Speaker 10: the fact that the straits are effected, the Strait of
31:50
Speaker 10: Hormus is effectively closed. That's a very hard message. But
31:54
Speaker 10: America is in a dramatically better position than where we've
31:58
Speaker 10: been in previous generation with our oil supply and production
32:02
Speaker 10: and refining capacity here in the United States. That's a
32:05
Speaker 10: lame message to take if you're running for reelection, that
32:08
Speaker 10: things could be worse. That is never a good election
32:12
Speaker 10: year message. But that's what they have to contend with
32:15
Speaker 10: right now.
32:17
Speaker 5: As somebody who's run for reelection a couple times, Mister Chairman,
32:21
Speaker 5: you wonder what the mentality is going to feel like
32:26
Speaker 5: by Labor Day. And I don't know if you buy
32:27
Speaker 5: into that long standing bit of wisdom that people start
32:31
Speaker 5: to solidify their opinions right around the beginning of September,
32:34
Speaker 5: and that's when these races start to start to harden,
32:37
Speaker 5: that the races start to codify themselves based on what
32:40
Speaker 5: we're seeing in the current standing in the polls right now,
32:43
Speaker 5: I guess everybody's on the beach. You know that they're
32:45
Speaker 5: not paying quite as much attention. But when does three
32:47
Speaker 5: dollars and seventy nine cents become a real problem for
32:50
Speaker 5: consumers who are starting to make decisions for November.
32:54
Speaker 10: Well, it's currently a problem for families that are traveling
32:58
Speaker 10: this summer. This is prime travel season, prime motoring season
33:03
Speaker 10: in the United.
33:03
Speaker 5: States and to elections.
33:08
Speaker 10: But you're right, Labor Day it does solidify. Everything kind
33:11
Speaker 10: of crystallizes and feelings get locked in. And since election
33:17
Speaker 10: day is no longer really election day, once you had
33:20
Speaker 10: the month of October, you have people voting starting to
33:24
Speaker 10: vote across the country. That means that you basically have
33:27
Speaker 10: a month long election day here in the United States,
33:30
Speaker 10: And so you really want to have your act together.
33:33
Speaker 10: And as an incumbent running for re election, especially as
33:36
Speaker 10: a Republican going into a midterm, it's going to be tough.
33:41
Speaker 10: It's a very tough message. So that is when you
33:44
Speaker 10: want to have things have a smoother path forward. When
33:48
Speaker 10: it comes to Iran and with energy prices, you want
33:50
Speaker 10: to see things starting to recede by then, otherwise it's
33:54
Speaker 10: going to lock in a very negative view for Republicans,
33:59
Speaker 10: a negative view for pres and Trump going into election day,
34:01
Speaker 10: which is really catastrophic for House Republicans, especially in some
34:07
Speaker 10: Senate races as well.
34:11
Speaker 3: Well.
34:11
Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you about one Senate race, in particular,
34:14
Speaker 2: the Senate race in Maine. We are still waiting to
34:17
Speaker 2: see what Grand Platner's future will be if he does
34:21
Speaker 2: ultimately drop his campaign in his bid to unsee Susan
34:25
Speaker 2: Collins in the face of sexual assault allegations, which of
34:27
Speaker 2: course he denies. Mister Chairman, if you're Susan Collins right now,
34:31
Speaker 2: is it heartening to know you may have a new
34:34
Speaker 2: opponent in a matter of weeks who isn't going to
34:37
Speaker 2: have as much time to build up support Or did
34:41
Speaker 2: you want to run against Graham Platner?
34:45
Speaker 7: Oh?
34:45
Speaker 10: I think Senator Collins wanted to run against Graham Plattner,
34:49
Speaker 10: and the Democrats started to understand that with multiple serious
34:54
Speaker 10: allegations and each one becoming more damning and less defensible
34:59
Speaker 10: for the Democrat a party, and as late as you
35:02
Speaker 10: know three days ago, you had Democratic operatives, especially from
35:06
Speaker 10: the socialist wing of the party defending every bit of
35:10
Speaker 10: allegation against against Grand Platner. It's struggling for them to
35:15
Speaker 10: have to answer for that. But there's this larger divide
35:19
Speaker 10: within the Democratic Party we're going to see come to four,
35:21
Speaker 10: which could be a benefit to Senator Collins and Republicans generally,
35:25
Speaker 10: which is the divide within the Democratic Party between the
35:28
Speaker 10: socialist left that is ideologically fixed. They were hoping that
35:32
Speaker 10: a grand Platner, working class looking guy who was you know,
35:37
Speaker 10: you know, went to elite boarding schools, but they've tried
35:41
Speaker 10: to write that out out of his narratives. But the
35:44
Speaker 10: socialist wanted a white, working class guy to make this
35:47
Speaker 10: look like instead of an elite intellectual activity from the
35:52
Speaker 10: Socialists and not diverse. They were trying to show a
35:56
Speaker 10: level of diversity with his ideology that's never been evident.
35:59
Speaker 10: So well, you're going to have that wing of the
36:01
Speaker 10: party versus those that really want to win with a
36:04
Speaker 10: more pragmatic view though liberal, and those things are going
36:08
Speaker 10: to play out in coming days in Maine and we're
36:10
Speaker 10: going to see that really open up. Not just what
36:13
Speaker 10: happened in New York and New York primary elections from
36:17
Speaker 10: a few weeks ago. But to show in an additional
36:20
Speaker 10: state that you have this serious ideological divide within the
36:23
Speaker 10: party between moderates or liberals versus the very far left
36:28
Speaker 10: socialist wing of the party driven by Elizabeth Warren and
36:31
Speaker 10: Bernie Sanders.
36:33
Speaker 5: Well, the Main Democratic Party does not seem divided on
36:35
Speaker 5: the issue of getting Graham Plattner out of the race
36:38
Speaker 5: and keeping him out of whatever comes next. Pretty dramatic stuff,
36:43
Speaker 5: mister Chairman, from Devin Murphy Anderson, the executive director of
36:46
Speaker 5: the Main Democratic Party, who was so upset about what
36:49
Speaker 5: she was hearing and overtures apparently from the Platner campaign,
36:53
Speaker 5: that she put up this video to send a very
36:56
Speaker 5: stern message. Let's watch and listen.
36:58
Speaker 11: The Main Democratic Party has been working around the clock
37:01
Speaker 11: to develop a process to replace our US Senate nominee
37:04
Speaker 11: that is open, inclusive, transparent and fair. The integrity of
37:09
Speaker 11: this process is just as important as the outcome, and
37:13
Speaker 11: we are committed to ensuring that Democrats across our state
37:16
Speaker 11: can have confidence in both. Unfortunately, Graham Platner's team has
37:21
Speaker 11: repeatedly reached out to us in an attempt to put
37:24
Speaker 11: their thumb on the scale of what this process.
37:27
Speaker 5: Looks like, wow, So what do you see here, Patrick McHenry,
37:31
Speaker 5: some sort of shotgun primary process? What could the party
37:36
Speaker 5: do in Maine to satisfy voters that they had to
37:39
Speaker 5: say in this and that Plattner's thumb was not on
37:41
Speaker 5: the scale.
37:42
Speaker 4: Nothing.
37:44
Speaker 10: All it is is show this is what happened with
37:46
Speaker 10: Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden after it became evident of
37:51
Speaker 10: his inability to see through a successful election. It's President Trump,
37:56
Speaker 10: so it's going to play out like that again. You're
37:58
Speaker 10: going to see theater about inclusivity and input. But the
38:03
Speaker 10: party apparatus and party rules dictate and in state law
38:06
Speaker 10: will dictate this replacement process, which is very very close
38:11
Speaker 10: circuit in the in the Democratic Party within Maine, just
38:14
Speaker 10: like most parties across the country, this is a closed
38:17
Speaker 10: door effectively a closed door event, but they'll they'll have
38:20
Speaker 10: some theater to show inclusivity. The word integrity, though, is
38:24
Speaker 10: very interesting to hear uh the Democratic parties trying to
38:27
Speaker 10: regain their sense of integrity having done this elaborate dance
38:31
Speaker 10: to defend Graham Plattner in the hopes of gaining the
38:34
Speaker 10: Senate seat. Both parties, in fact, my friends, Republicans in
38:39
Speaker 10: Texas are doing something similar around you know, a pretty
38:42
Speaker 10: bad Republican nominee in the Texas Center race. So both
38:47
Speaker 10: parties are dealing with this and these are these are
38:50
Speaker 10: these are things that parties have to deal with from
38:53
Speaker 10: time to time, and unfortunately we're all going to be
38:55
Speaker 10: able to Unfortunately for Democrats in Maine, they're the ones
38:59
Speaker 10: that have to go through this pretty nasty and arduous
39:02
Speaker 10: process to find a way to salvage an election in May.
39:09
Speaker 2: We just got a headline crossing from the Washington Post
39:12
Speaker 2: that Plattner will be speaking about the future of his
39:15
Speaker 2: campaign tonight. So I guess we'll see if that is
39:18
Speaker 2: when a formal announcement will come. Of course, CNN had
39:21
Speaker 2: early reported there would be a video. I guess we
39:23
Speaker 2: will all stay tuned to find out. Mister chairman, thank
39:26
Speaker 2: you so much for your time. As always the former
39:28
Speaker 2: chair of the House Financial Services Committee and now a
39:30
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor, Patrick McHenry and McHenry of course, there
39:35
Speaker 2: was talking about Ken Paxton, or alluding to him, another
39:38
Speaker 2: candidate whose morality has been in question and yet is
39:42
Speaker 2: the nominee in the Senate race. But of course, there
39:44
Speaker 2: are other questions around where the lines are in politics
39:47
Speaker 2: and a modern age in which you also have a
39:49
Speaker 2: president of the United States who was found liable for
39:52
Speaker 2: sexual abuse.
39:53
Speaker 5: That's correct. This is not going to get easier for
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Speaker 5: Graham Plattner. And when he speaks then and of course
39:58
Speaker 5: will be listening and let you know more. The Washington Post,
40:01
Speaker 5: saying that the campaign team held a call this afternoon,
40:04
Speaker 5: leadership sounded resigned to the idea that it could be
40:07
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40:12
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