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Strength In All 13 Job Sectors Of Economy: Manpower · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Well as the jobs data confirmed
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: this morning, the labor market remains very tight in the US.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: To get a sense of what is going on underneath
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  Speaker 1: the headline data, we turned to Becky franko Witz. Becky
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  Speaker 1: is a president of Manpower Group North America. She joins
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  Speaker 1: us from on the phone from Chicago. Becky, thanks so
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: much for joining us. Just looking at the headline number,
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  Speaker 1: obviously two hundred and sixty three thousand jobs added, unemployment
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: remains low, wages percolating. If I were to take a
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: look across the U S, what I see a labor
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: market that is fairly consistently strong across the US or
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: are the pockets of strength end or weakness? Yeah, so
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: you would definitely see with the kind of record unemployment
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: we're seeing, you'd see strength across all thirteen sector sectors
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: of the economy, so from transportation, utility to durable goods manufacturing.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: You know, we're seeing double digit intention in hiring, intention
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: to hire, and we're seeing that play through is BLS
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: reports every month, So very strong across the economy. So, Becky,
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  Speaker 1: one of the things, you know, I think we've all
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: noticed over the last ten plus years is kind of
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the growth of this gig economy, people kind of doing
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  Speaker 1: their own thing. You go into any Starbucks, it seems
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: around the country, and you know, most of the people
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  Speaker 1: are sitting there at their computers open and they're doing
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: something and they stay there for hours on end. Does
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: the data accurately collect and accurately reflect those people in
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: the economy that part of the workforce, which seems to
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: be growing. Yeah, So what I can tell you is
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  Speaker 1: it's definitely. We're definitely seeing grows. Obviously, that's the business
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: that we're in, and we call it the consumerization of talent.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: So just like we're shopping on Amazon, consumers want to
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: work when, where and how they choose to and to
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: your example, that could include Starbucks, that can include remote working.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: We did an assessment of non wage benefits. You know,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: the wages are definitely under pressure, and the number two
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: most popular non wage benefit is reduced flexible time and location.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: So people are looking to work when, where and how
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: they choose. It's an interesting Just yesterday, Lisa Brahma, what's
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: my co host and I we were out in San
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Francisco at a real estate conference there and a lot
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: of the folks there were saying, you know, not just
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: in San Francisco the Bay Area, but one of the
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: big challenges for figuring out where to locate a business
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: is talent and that there's this never ending talent shortage.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: You know, what what do you think businesses can do
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: should be doing to navigate around this talent shortage. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: so a couple of things. First, we all have to
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: be you know, I have to open the aperture to
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: bring people in from the sidelines. So if you look
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: at average unemployment, you know, we hit three point six
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: percent today, by the way, the lowest since we in
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: America put a man on the moon. So it's it's
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  Speaker 1: truly historic like that reference how true to nine truly
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: historic reference. Um, But we have to open the aperture
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: because there are still pockets. So if you look at
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: African American unemployment, it's covering right below seven percent. That
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: would bring in over half a million people into the
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: workforce if we just got African American unemployment down to
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  Speaker 1: the national average true for people with disabilities covering right
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: below eight percent. So we have to open the aperture
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: and bring people in. The second and we're increasingly seeing
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: this is having employers relax the requirements around education or experience.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: So we know, traditionally on any job description, it's four
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: year college degree desired, you know, NBA preferred something like that,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: and there are many many skill trades that do not
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: require a four year degree, do require some type of certification,
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  Speaker 1: but don't require a four year college degree. So we're
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  Speaker 1: increasingly having those conversations and clients are starting to respond. Right.
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  Speaker 1: One of the things that's uh, you know, certainly been
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  Speaker 1: an issue in the labor community, in the labor force
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  Speaker 1: and how the labor force is being deployed is automation
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  Speaker 1: and the impact automation is having on some some traditional
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: jobs within the US economy and maybe just splacing, uh,
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  Speaker 1: some sectors of the labor force. How do you think
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  Speaker 1: corporate America is doing with kind of integrating automation and
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  Speaker 1: then to whatever extent needed kind of retraining those displaced workers.
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  Speaker 1: How do you think the US business is doing there? Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: so first I would say the conversation has shifted and
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  Speaker 1: we would say, as it needed to, from a robot's
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  Speaker 1: going to take my job to how can companies help
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  Speaker 1: human beings augment technology? Um, so we're starting to see
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  Speaker 1: that that conversation shift among among companies. We just did
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: a survey of eleven thousand U S employers and we
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: asked the simple questions and not a ten year view,
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: but a two year view for the next two years,
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  Speaker 1: how's automation going to impact your hiring? Of American employers
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  Speaker 1: said they will maintain or increase hiring. And interestingly enough,
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: those that are automating the fastest, we're actually hiring the most.
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  Speaker 1: And so we definitely see that automation will come in
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  Speaker 1: and automate tasks, will see jobs shifting from things at
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: a routine into higher order human capability, and there were
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: there are definitely new job being created. So you know,
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  Speaker 1: we're seeing it happen today. This isn't a tenure horizon,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: but we're also seeing new, totally new jobs to be created.
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  Speaker 1: One of the things in terms of dealing with some
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: of the labor shortage that a new term I hadn't
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  Speaker 1: heard before is encore workers. What is an encore worker?
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  Speaker 1: I love that term, so we're I mean, it's it's amazing.
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  Speaker 1: So you know, I know, there was some speculation today
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  Speaker 1: on workforce participation and there with speculation, you know, it
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  Speaker 1: went down because boomers retiring. So what we are seeing
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  Speaker 1: is boomers in America are experiencing job gains at two
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  Speaker 1: x there share the population, so yes, they are retiring,
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  Speaker 1: and then they're moving into encore careers, so not interested
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  Speaker 1: in working you know, necessarily in the same company or
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  Speaker 1: the same um in the same seventy hour work week,
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  Speaker 1: which we're you know seeing finally productivity started moving, so
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: that was great to see today as well. But they're
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  Speaker 1: moving into encore careers things that are different, things that
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  Speaker 1: they have passion on, but still paid positions. So we're
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  Speaker 1: very excited about, you know, the the re employment of
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  Speaker 1: boomers in America. That's very very interesting. I think at
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: some point I might be thinking about that. Thank you. Franco.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: It's president, Manpowered Group North America, dialing in from Chicago.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: We appreciate your commentary today here on Jobs Friday. Well,
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: it is early May, which means it's that time a
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: year again for the Berkshire Hathaway Annual shareholders meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Widely anticipated, however, CEO Warren Buffett may face some tough
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: questions about the company's lagging share price. To dig into
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: what we might hear from this weekend's meeting, we welcome
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: David Deets. David's a founder, president and chief investment strategist
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: a point View Wealth Management from Lovely Summit, New Jersey.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: We also welcome Peggy Collins, investing team leader from Bloomberg News.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: She joins us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. David,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: let me start with you. What do you think is
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the most pressing message for Mr Buffett to get across
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: to his shareholders this weekend. Well, I think that it's
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: ultimately gonna be there will be life after Warren and
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: uh Charlie Munger depart from the scene. People are always
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: looking forward. I think right now some of the Buppet
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: premium has escaped from the stock. There is concerns as
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: to what the future might hold. So I think he
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: has to lay uh has to allay concerns over what
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: that would look like. So, Peggy, I know you've gone
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: to this meeting in Omaha for several years. Just give
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: us a sense of kind of what the ambiance is there,
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: what's what's it like to actually go and be there.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: It really is incredible, I have to say so every
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: year that I've gone, I think of it and um
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: related to almost like a rock concert, except there's no
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: music and there's no interactive graphics. It's basically two old
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: guys kind of sitting on a stage and people line
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: up starting at like four in the morning, and that
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: is no joke. And then when they open the doors
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: around seven or eight am, it is literally people run
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: into the indoor stadium to try and to see as
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: close up to the stage as possible, and then they
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: truly sit there and answer questions for hours. They say
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: every year, we don't get these questions in events, and
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: it's a round robin between some media and journalists and
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: analysts and then they throw questions to the audience. But
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: they do it for about six hours. It's incredible, that
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: really is. I mean, you don't see that obviously, you
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: don't see that anywhere else. I don't think in corporate America.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Dave David, I know you've attended this UH conclave for
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: many years, specifically this year. Um, maybe one of the
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: most recent transactions we've seen from the company is this
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: acquisition of Amazon. What do you make of that? Yeah,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: it's quite interesting. I mean, you know, Warren Buffett has
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: he praised on Jeff Bezos and Amazon for years, talking
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: about what a skilled businessman he is, but he's also
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: said he's an idiot for not investing in Amazon. Now
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: finally we found out that there has been investment there. Um,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I think you can reconcile it by saying that we've
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: learned that it's by one of his lieutenants, either Todd
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: or Ted. It wasn't by Warren Pops himself. Of course,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: they also know this company very well because Berkshire, Hathaway, Amazon,
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: JP Morgan have a consortium where they're trying to address
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: spiraling healthcare calls. Yeah, exactly, so Peggy another you know transaction.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: It's funny when you when we have this, we know
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the meetings coming in May, and a lot of you know,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Berkshire watchers kind of tell us, oh, watch, there could
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: be some announcements in the weeks or maybe month before
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: in terms of big investments or big deals, and this
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: year was no different. We had Oxidental Petroleum receiving a
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: ten billion dollar investment from Berkshire. What do you make
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: of that foray into the energy space. It's interesting because
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: one of the things I thought of this week when
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: the reports were rolling out was essentially that in some
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: ways it is Buffet style, right. He does look a
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: lot at big things in the economy that he thinks
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: are going to be there forever. So whether it's owning
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of Coca Cola stock, for example, because he
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: believes that, you know, that will be a consumer staple
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: for a long time, or it's railroads. I mean people
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: often get that he's made a big bet on railroads
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: over over the years as well. So oil is it's
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: just you know, a major thing in the economy, but
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: of course it is in flux right now in terms
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: of renewable energy and things like that. So it's interesting
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: to see that he's doing this through financing and not
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: necessarily making a call or a bet on a specific
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: oil provider or company. He sounds like he's, you know,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: the banker to the oil patch. You're getting an apercent coupon,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: which is very Warren Buffett esque, I guess, exactly similar
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: to what he did with some of the banks after
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: the financial crisis, exactly, and that's when his money was
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: needed the most. So David just finally here thinking about
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: the balance sheet. Here, you know, I'm looking at the
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal and you know about billion dollars worth of
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: cash and equivalence on the balance sheet for Berkshire Hathaway.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: What do you think they should do with this cash? Well,
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: that's the central question, because that could really drive returns
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: going forward. Usually there's three things. One is too as
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Warren Popper would say, bag and elephant. But is he
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: kept has kept saying for years now. It's not that
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: easy when you have that much cash to put to work.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: There's only a few potential targets. He won't get into
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: a contested takeover battle. So that's one item that people
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: are gonna be looking at. The other two things, of course,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: is buying back stock and paying a dividend. Now, the
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: last one he has consistently said no, but look for
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: a dividend to be paid once he's no longer in
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: charge of the situation in terms of buying back stock,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: it makes all the sense of the world. He's talked
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: about doing it, we haven't seen much activity. Many investors
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: are asking him to buy back five billion a quarter,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: and I think that could really choose the stock interesting.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: It seems like I don't know how you spent billion dollars.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Doesn't seem to be a big elephant out there. But
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: David Deet's founder, president, chief investment strategist Point View Wealth Management,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: joining us on phone. Thank you so much. Peggy Collins,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: investing team leader for Bloomberg News as well here in
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Interactor broker studio, thank you for joining us. Well,
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: the markets have been digesting a significant amount of data
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: this week, including FED policy statement from earlier this week
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: and of course today's better than expected jobs data to
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: get an assessment of the big picture. We're fortunate to
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: have our next guest, Christina Hooper, Christina's chief global market
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: strategist for Investgo. She joins us here in a Bloomberg
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Interactive broker studio. So, Christina, thank you so much for
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: joining us. Boy two hundred sixty three thousand jobs, was
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: it just a monster print? What was your takeaway from
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: the jobs data today, Well, it's great to see such
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: consistency and strength as well. Now we've got a six
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: month running average of over two hundred thousand non farm payrolls,
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: so there's a lot of good stuff in there. Um.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: There are certainly a few areas that could be better. Manufacturing,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: for example, is disappointing, and I think that is a
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: reflection of the US China trade war and ongoing issues
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: with tariffs. Um. But in general, it's a really strong
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: job jobs report and it's not hard to find a
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: lot of it's hard to find a lot of issues
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: with it. Yeah, exactly. So that kind of ties in
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: with I guess the feds assessment of how things are going.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I think the FED, if they probably sat back today
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Chairman Palance said, see, I told you things are going
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: pretty well. I'm we're kind of negotiating a soft landing,
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: decent growth, moderate inflation. So what is your take on
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: what you think the FEDS next move could be. Well,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I think what the FEDS next move is going to
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: be for a long time is nothing. Um, it is
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: already in a position where it has curtailed I would
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: argue prematurely, uh normalization it's curtailed balance, it's curtailing balance normalization,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: it's also curtailing a normalization of rates, and so I
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: would expect it to be in a holding pattern for
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: a long time, especially given what we're seeing with productivity
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: that we aren't going to have uh inflationary pressures. But
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: at the same time, UM, it's fairly clear that FED
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: policy see that if we were to lower rates, it
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: isn't going to increase inflation because productivity is improving. UM.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: It's interesting. One of the things that certainly spooked the
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: market if we think way back to kind of December,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: one of the many things that was out there was
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: some of the geopolitical risk, whether it's Brexit and the
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: slowing growth in Europe or China. China and the trade
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: talks and so on. What is your sense of kind
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: of where those kinds of risks are today, because we
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: don't hear too much about them here in well, we
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: don't hear about them, but certainly they are very much present,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: and I would argue growing what we're seeing is these
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: twin trends of economic nationalism and populism, and that's really
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: manifested itself. For example, in US trade policy, but we're
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: also seeing far more of it in places like Europe.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: We just got the UK local elections yesterday UM, which
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: showed that there's a lot of unhappiness UM with Brexit UM.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: There was a rejection of mainstream parties, but in a
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: sense that was probably the most pro EU UM vote
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: we've seen this year. Instead, what we've seen is just
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: more of a push towards populism and nationalism and a
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: move away from the EU. And that's you know, I
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: guess what we've seen in some of the economic data
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: of the European Union that has not generally been well received.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I mean we've seen I guess, slow and growth in
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: Germany even absolutely. I mean, there are problems in the
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: European Union, and I think it's complicated by uh changes
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: in leadership at the e c B. It's going to
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: be hard for Mario Draggy to do anything this year
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: that I think really stimulates and helps support the economy
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: in Europe and also gives businesses confidence, just given that
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: he's a lame duck e c B leader and he's
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: going to be finishing his term at the end of October, right,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: so coming we were about I guess seventy five percent
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: or so the way through the earning season here for
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: the first quarter, Uh, I guess coming in a little
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: bit better than expected. Maybe that's just because the bar
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: was so low. What's your takeaway from what we've seen
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: so far in earnings, Well, that's just the bar has
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: been so low that the response on the part of
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: investors on markets has been fairly positive. UM that it
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: is good enough this earnings season, especially in light of
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: the FEDS really dramatic about face this year in terms
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: of getting so much more accommodative and curtailing normalization. So
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: given where we are, we've got, you know, decent earnings
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: that looked like I guess for the remainder of the year,
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: we have the FED on the sideline. Yes, we're late
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: in the economic cycle ten years plus. Where are you
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: thinking about in terms of opportunities for the market. Where
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: are you suggesting that people really think about it in
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: terms of twenty nineteen going to the next following year. Well,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: I first would say that this is an environment that's
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: going to favor risk assets just because of the FEDS
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: change in stance. So my overarching view is that UM
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: risk assets remain attractive, including of course equities. Now having
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: said all that, I do think we have to worry
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: about increased volatility. There's certainly a mismatch between market expectations
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: and for example, what the fed UH plans to do,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: or at least we've seen that historically. We also have
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty in other parts of the world,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: and quite frankly, we also have to watch the U
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: S economy. While things look great UM, we've gotten some
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: concerning UM warning signs. Now uh, just a few data
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: points does not a trend make, but we've seen a
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: disappointing UM readings from the I S M manufacturing, is M,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: non manufacturing UM. We've seen two weeks of higher initial
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: jobless claims, all of which can be explained away as aberrations,
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: but we want to follow that closely in case they're not,
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: in case they're suggesting some kind of slowdown. But in general,
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: this is an environment the favors risk assets, but we
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: want to be well diversified. We want to have exposure
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: to lower valuation. We want exposure to areas of really
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: strong growth. While the US is growing nicely UM, there
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: are parts of emerging markets that are growing UM UM
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: much faster and so we want to have exposure there. Yeah,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: I was just I was just thinking about emerging markets
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: because it's when people say they're you know, they're they
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: have an appetite for risk, that that naturally leads me
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: to think about emerging markets. And so you know, and
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: that's something I know people look at emerging markets a
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: little bit different, like what's an emerging market? What's not
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: an emerging market? How much risk am I willing to take?
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: Kind of how do you how is invested viewing the
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: emerging market space? Well, we're positive on it in general,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: but we would argue this is a time to be
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: selective and discerning. This is not time to UM just
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: throw oneself into an index, but instead look for those
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: opportunities UM. And there are a lot of opportunities in
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: particular in Asia E m Um, China, Thailand, Vietnam, India. Uh,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: those are places where we can find some really attractive
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: opportunities UM with high growth levels. So I'm guessing you're
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: watching the US China trade negotiations carefully. Oh? Absolutely, What
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: would you expect? I mean, I think we're getting a
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: May June maybe announcement. So my expectation is that the
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: US is very eager to get a deal done for
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: a variety of reasons, and China is very interested in
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: not making a lot of concessions. And that's been clear
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: really by all the stimulus they've thrown into the economy
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: to support it so it can get through these negotiations. Um,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: So my expectation is that we'll see minor concessions from China,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: and China actually may get a big win in this
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: reciprocal enforcement agreement. That seems to be at least that's
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: what the you know, the reports are that that will
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: be part of the ultimate agreement. Now that's a short
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: term win, but it could provide headaches for years to come,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: headaches for years to come. Yeah, it seems like the
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: question really is when you think about the China trade deal,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: will it be a you know, kind of a headline
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: type of trade negotiation or will be something more substantive
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: And that remains to be seeing. Christina Hooper, Thank you
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: so much to Christina is a chief Global market strategist
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: for Investco. Joining us here in New York on our
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Bob eleventh three Yeoh Studios. Well, the fallout from the
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Mulla report continues as Attorney General General William Barr testified
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: before a Senate committee earlier this week. To get a
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: sense of what the impact is of this ongoing issue,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: we turned to Chris lou Senior fellow at the University
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: of Virginia Miller Center. Chris is also a former Deputy
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Secretary Labor under President Obama. Chris, thanks so much for
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: joining us. First of all, I just want to get
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: your sense of what you thought of Attorney General bars
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: testimony in front of the Senate and then his unwillingness
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: to appear before the House. What is your take. Well, look,
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: I think it's certainly right. He raised a lot of
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: questions in this testimony, and you could sense the frustration
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: from Democratic members. Uh. You know, obviously you look at
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: the testimony through your own partisan lens, and that's unfortunate.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: This should be the Attorney General of the United States,
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: and I think far too often in his testimony he
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: looked more like the president's personal defense lawyer. I think
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: ultimately all of this back and forth doesn't get settled
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: until the Special Council tests devised, and I believe that
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: will probably be in the next couple of weeks in
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: the House. So is it some Democrats actually calling for
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: Attorney General bar to resign or even be impeached. Is
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: this even appropriate or possible? Well, I think if he
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: does not testify before the House, he will certainly be
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: held in contempt of Congress. Uh. And you know that's
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: not something to be taken lightly. Although it doesn't on
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: its own carry a huge punishment. I think this is
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: part of a broader standoff between the White House and Congress.
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: And you see this playing out not only with the
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Attorney General's testimony. Uh. You see it with the Treasury
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: departments failure to turn over the present's tax releases. There's
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: an ongoing investigation of White House security clearances that's gotten
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: bogged down in back and forth fighting as well. And
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: so uh, you know, from Democrat's perspective, this looks like
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: across the board white House obstruction. This is a president
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: who said he's going to fight all of these investigations,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: and so normally uh, there is some kind of accommodation
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: and both sides reach a compromise. It will be interesting
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: to see if that happens here, given the bad blood
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: on all sides right now, So, christ you mentioned that
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: you thought Mr Mueller would testify in front of Congress
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: in the next several weeks. But it sounds like there's
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: really far apart on that. How do you think this
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: will play out in terms of getting Mr bar in
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: front of presumably the Democratic controlled House. You mean Mr
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Barr and Mr Muller. I'm sorry, Mr Mueller, Thank you,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Mr Muller, Right. You know, I think at this point
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the negotiations are happening between the House Judiciary Committee Chairman
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Nadler directly with uh. Mr Mueller. UM. He in the past,
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: he's not a he's not a talker, so I think
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: this will be a challenging testimony. On the other hand,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: based on the letters that he has sent to the
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: Attorney Journal, UH, he really feels frustration disagreement with the
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: way that his report has been characterized, so he has
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: an incentive, I think, to to to be more forthcoming
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: about this. The other broader challenges that there's still material
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: in the Mueller report, UH that probably can't be disclosed
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: in an open setting, in particular of those that are
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: related to grand jeury materials. So Chris Let's shift gears
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit to the Federal Reserve Board. Another tough
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: week for the administration. UM, I guess the FED picks
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: Steven more dropping out of the running kind of raising
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: questions here is what's what's kind of going on at
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: the White House in terms of vetting. Uh, these candidates,
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: you could argue they're they're over four at this point. Yeah,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: this is an unfortunate pattern with this administration. You know,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: you've got a president who I think far too often
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: makes his personnel pics based on how somebody appears on
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: TV or in the case of Steven Moore, you know
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: some favorable of eds that he wrote, uh, and then
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: prematurely announces those decisions before any vetting happens. Uh. And
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: then in Evin, really damaging information comes out and the
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: nomination has to be withdrawn. If you talk to people
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: who have been in previous White Houses as I have,
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: there is an exhaustive vetting process that happens before anyone's
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: name is typically put forward. Uh. You know when I
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: was nominated to be the Deputy Sector of Labor. Uh,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: they vetted me for months before my name was even
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: put out there. Um, that's the smart procedure to avoid
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: situations like this. But again, you've seen that time and
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: time within this administration. So what role can the Republicans
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill do to try to make this a
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: better process for the Republican Party and for this administration.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Is there any role for Congress and say, listen, work
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: with us. We can help you here, you know, and
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: you can clearly sense the frustration on Senate Republicans. You know,
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: a good example is Uh, Senator path to Me from
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Pennsylvania was out there defending Stephen Moore just the day
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: before he um he withdrew his nomination. So you know,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: no one wants to be put out there sending nominees
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: like this, and you know, as trying to be loyal
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: to the president, they feel their obligation to do that,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: even though privately they'll tell you and the concerns that
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: they have, and actually they were very public about their concerns,
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: not not only involving Stephen Moore, but also involving Herman King.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Do you think the White House will come back with
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: a more traditional pick for these two open spots? You know,
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: I hope. So, I mean, these are jobs that should
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: not be seen as partisan jobs. You want qualified people there, uh,
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: and I and you And with both of these picks,
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: you either saw ideal logs or people who don't necessarily
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: have the kind of monetary background that would be necessary
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: in this type of job. So I am hopeful, but
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: again it's hard to always tell with this president who
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: catches this fancy. So Chris, just finally, I want to
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: just switch gears again to the Democratics UH nomination. Here
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: the crowd gets ever bigger. Appears that some polling data
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: came out recently that showed a former Vice president Joe Biden,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: in the lead. Do you consider him to be the
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: front runner for the Democrats? I absolutely think he is
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: the front runner, although I take these polls with a
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: grain of salt. At this point. They largely measure name recognition,
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: and I don't want to diminish that because name or
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: recognition is an important part about UM getting elected or
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: getting certainly nominated and getting elected. But I think, you know,
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: we are a long long way away. UM. You know, UM,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: there's gonna be an increasing challenge on candidates to raise money, UH,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: to sustain the large operations that that they're now building
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: in these early states. We're gonna have the first set
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: of UH debates in June and July, and that will
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: create a winnowing process. So UH, you know, these polls
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: are interesting, but I'm gonna wait till the end of
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: the summer, right before Labor Day, and I'll think we'll
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: have a much better sense of word of this race
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: will be Chris Leu, thank you so much. Chris lewis
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: a senior fellow at the University of Virginia Miller Center,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: at the home of the n C Double A basketball
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: champions this year. I'm sure Chris is aware. Chris is
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: also a former Deputy secret Area of Labor under President Obama.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Thanks Chris for so much for joining us here. A
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: lot of news obviously coming out of Washington, and Chris
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: is certainly a great person to kind of help us
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: piece it all together. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: P and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Lisa Abram Woyds. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abram Woyits
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: one before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio