Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/6/26: Iran Total Control On Hormuz, Energy Rationing, US Casualty Coverup, Iran Worried About US Nukes

Transcript

4/6/26: Iran Total Control On Hormuz, Energy Rationing, US Casualty Coverup, Iran Worried About US Nukes · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
0:01
Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,
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Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints
0:29
Speaker 1: dot com. Turning now to oil and what the price
0:36
Speaker 1: remains for all of us in terms of gasoline, let's
0:38
Speaker 1: put see one up here on the screen. Oil prices
0:41
Speaker 1: actually slid a bit, as Trump warnsey Ron to open
0:45
Speaker 1: the streets of our moves. A lot of this is
0:47
Speaker 1: because of that Baroq revied report about an alleged peace
0:53
Speaker 1: deal that may or may not happen, but it does
0:55
Speaker 1: of course.
0:56
Speaker 3: Simply still buy this crap.
0:57
Speaker 1: I don't know, I mean it's still I mean, look
0:59
Speaker 1: it's split a bit by two percent, it's still one
1:02
Speaker 1: hundred and eight dollars a barrel, all right, and you
1:04
Speaker 1: could see very clearly, like the w the crude oil
1:07
Speaker 1: price is about one hundred and ten dollars a barrel
1:11
Speaker 1: as we are recording. The Brent oil price is about
1:13
Speaker 1: one hundred and eight dollars. I mean, both of these
1:16
Speaker 1: are still astronomically higher than when everything began. It's really
1:20
Speaker 1: only the surprise that it's only one hundred and eight
1:23
Speaker 1: or one hundred and ten dollars per barrel. Put C
1:25
Speaker 1: two up there on the screen, also to show that
1:27
Speaker 1: Trump's market manipulation is alive and well. Nasdaq futures rise
1:32
Speaker 1: on ceasefire efforts. They're hoping and they're coping, even though
1:35
Speaker 1: Iran has already rejected it. But the average price of
1:39
Speaker 1: gas remains on track for nightmare scenarios. Let's go to
1:42
Speaker 1: the next one. This is from Triple A and their
1:45
Speaker 1: map of the national gas prices. The current at Triple
1:49
Speaker 1: A national average of gas in the United States is
1:52
Speaker 1: four dollars and eleven cents a gallon. Now, already, that's
1:56
Speaker 1: really bad. But if you'll notice when you're watching, all
1:59
Speaker 1: of the states that are in red where the price
2:02
Speaker 1: remains very high. So in California, what is that fourteen
2:06
Speaker 1: percent of our population five dollars and ninety two cents
2:10
Speaker 1: a gallon diesel is going in San Francisco for eight
2:15
Speaker 1: dollars a gallon, well over five dollars in a couple
2:19
Speaker 1: of different states Washington, Nevada, approaching five in Arizona, in Alaska,
2:24
Speaker 1: in Washington or in Hawaii five point fifty a gallon.
2:28
Speaker 1: California or sorry, Florida is already like four to twenty
2:31
Speaker 1: a gallon Illinois four to twenty nine a gallon Pennsylvania
2:35
Speaker 1: is four fifteen of Virginia where we are four dollars
2:38
Speaker 1: and six cents, So it's below four bucks a gallon
2:41
Speaker 1: in some of the states which are much closer to
2:43
Speaker 1: the refineries, like Texas, remains at three eighty two. But
2:46
Speaker 1: the fact remains like we are well on track for
2:49
Speaker 1: a sustained gas shock that is going to at least
2:52
Speaker 1: keep us above three bucks a gallon well into the
2:56
Speaker 1: foreseeable future, and at the very least in the next
2:59
Speaker 1: few months, we're going to be hovering in this price.
3:02
Speaker 1: And right now, the average price of diesel in the
3:06
Speaker 1: United States is five dollars and sixty one cents a gallon.
3:09
Speaker 1: The all time high from this was June of twenty
3:14
Speaker 1: twenty two, is five dollars and eighty one cents a
3:16
Speaker 1: gallon for diesel, So we are only twenty cents off
3:20
Speaker 1: the all time high. And many gas and diesel analysts
3:23
Speaker 1: are projecting that the US will cross the coveted six
3:27
Speaker 1: dollars six dollars diesel threshold, which arguably that's just as
3:31
Speaker 1: bad as gas because it shows up in food inflation
3:36
Speaker 1: and trucked goods. It will wipe the margin for any
3:40
Speaker 1: of the independent truckers. We're already looking at those stories
3:44
Speaker 1: at five dollars diesel, they were really getting screw at
3:46
Speaker 1: six dollars seven And I mean, can you imagine paying
3:48
Speaker 1: eight dollars a gallon for diesel? That's insane In San Francisco.
3:52
Speaker 1: That could be our future, It really could. Where that
3:54
Speaker 1: would be I don't know, maybe seven dollars six fifty
3:57
Speaker 1: Nationally that would be like ten dollars in San Francisco
4:00
Speaker 1: or in some of the other major metropolitan areas in California.
4:04
Speaker 1: So it's genuine nightmare. And this is not even shortages
4:06
Speaker 1: right now, it's just price. We could end up in
4:09
Speaker 1: a shortage scenario, which we're going to talk about in
4:10
Speaker 1: a little bit.
4:11
Speaker 2: Absolutely, and CNBC has this report this morning about how
4:14
Speaker 2: the US around war tax is beginning to hit American
4:17
Speaker 2: businesses and consumers.
4:19
Speaker 3: They talk about the co.
4:20
Speaker 2: Founder of the College Hunks hauling junk and moving business,
4:25
Speaker 2: and he started, listen, mortgage rates are high, so people
4:27
Speaker 2: are moving, period.
4:28
Speaker 3: And then I also have.
4:29
Speaker 2: To deal with the fact that diesel is so costly.
4:32
Speaker 2: So I mean, these businesses are already getting screwed, and
4:35
Speaker 2: of course they're going to pass what cost of that
4:37
Speaker 2: they can onto consumers.
4:39
Speaker 3: You already see that.
4:40
Speaker 2: They detail also in the story, United Airlines and Jet
4:43
Speaker 2: Blue both raised prices on baggage this week to try
4:46
Speaker 2: to cope with the increased jet fuel cost. Amazon announced
4:50
Speaker 2: a three point five percent fuel surcharge on their sellers.
4:55
Speaker 2: Now again, their sellers will try to pass that onto
4:58
Speaker 2: consumers as much as they poss simply can. Amazon described
5:02
Speaker 2: the surch charge as meaningfully lower than levies applied by
5:05
Speaker 2: other major carriers in a statement to CNBC. So this
5:08
Speaker 2: is where we are already, We're now five weeks into
5:12
Speaker 2: this war. Trump says, you know, various things at various times,
5:16
Speaker 2: but he seems to have this Idoh, we'll wrap it
5:18
Speaker 2: up in two weeks.
5:19
Speaker 3: I don't know how.
5:20
Speaker 2: But even if you take his word for that, I
5:23
Speaker 2: think you've got damage to the energy generation facilities in
5:28
Speaker 2: the region, and you very likely have a permanent new
5:31
Speaker 2: status quo in terms of the Strait of horm Moves,
5:33
Speaker 2: which is going to put some sort of permanent premium
5:37
Speaker 2: on energy and other goods that are flowing through that region.
5:41
Speaker 2: So that's already where we are. If we continue in
5:44
Speaker 2: this direction, you can only imagine how catastrophic it's going
5:47
Speaker 2: to be for us and for the world.
5:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, let's continue on. Just down to make sure
5:51
Speaker 1: people know too, there's some very they're crazy things happening
5:55
Speaker 1: in the Straits of Horror Moves just solidifying Iranian control.
5:58
Speaker 1: Let's put the next one up here. Announced that the
6:01
Speaker 1: brotherly nation of Iraq would be allowed to use the
6:05
Speaker 1: streets of Hormuz. We don't know exactly what sort of
6:08
Speaker 1: deal worked out. They may be paying the toll. Don't
6:12
Speaker 1: forget there are all of these Iranian proxy militias in
6:16
Speaker 1: Iraq which have been allegedly firing at US forces and
6:21
Speaker 1: US air assets that are moving across Iraq as they
6:24
Speaker 1: go to bomb Iran. So maybe they worked out some
6:27
Speaker 1: deal where those Iranian proxies will have more movement. Who knows.
6:31
Speaker 1: At the very least, it's very obvious these two governments
6:34
Speaker 1: are trying and moving closer together because Iraq had some
6:38
Speaker 1: what is it, three million barrels a day of infrastructure
6:41
Speaker 1: which was totally shut down. So what they've said is
6:44
Speaker 1: that Iraqi ships will now be allowed to use the
6:47
Speaker 1: Straits of Hormuz and will be able to transit through
6:50
Speaker 1: the strait. We've also had these reports again solidifying Iranian
6:54
Speaker 1: control over the state. Let's put the next one up here.
6:57
Speaker 1: The Japanese, French, and Omani vessels actually did cross through
7:01
Speaker 1: the Straits of Hormuz. Now, the really interesting part here
7:04
Speaker 1: is about those French vessels. This is just one keep
7:06
Speaker 1: in mind it's still, of course a major US asset
7:09
Speaker 1: US ally, but France actually voted in the UN Security
7:13
Speaker 1: Council against this use of force position that was put
7:17
Speaker 1: forth by the UAE and with the US to try
7:19
Speaker 1: and compel some international mission to use of force to
7:23
Speaker 1: open the Straits of Hormuz. France voted against that and
7:26
Speaker 1: immediately a French vessel was allowed to cross through Oman also,
7:31
Speaker 1: let's remember, is a critical Iranian ally, but also was
7:35
Speaker 1: the mediator of a lot of those talks. The Omani
7:39
Speaker 1: Foreign minister, remember, was here in Washington the day before
7:42
Speaker 1: the war, being like, we can avoid this, we can
7:43
Speaker 1: avoid this. He's been consistently trying to engage with the
7:46
Speaker 1: Vice President's team, with Steve Woodcoff, Jared Kushner. He also, though,
7:49
Speaker 1: did call out Jared Kushner and Steve wood Coff for
7:52
Speaker 1: their negotiation. So he's not in anybody's good graces right
7:54
Speaker 1: now here in Washington. But they remain very good relations
7:59
Speaker 1: with Iran. There were some strikes on some Omani oil assets,
8:02
Speaker 1: so they have worked out some sort of a deal
8:04
Speaker 1: where some ships are allowed to hug the Omani coastline,
8:08
Speaker 1: the IRGC will look the other way. Then there's some
8:11
Speaker 1: Chinese vessels which are getting through the straight But the
8:14
Speaker 1: fact is is that traffic is still near all time
8:18
Speaker 1: record lows. Any ship that's moving through, it's a ship
8:22
Speaker 1: with either de facto control permission by the Iranians, or
8:25
Speaker 1: it's a smuggling ship, which apparently this you know, this
8:28
Speaker 1: researcher from a research firm here in the US went
8:32
Speaker 1: there and he said some ships are going through broadcasting
8:35
Speaker 1: that they're a Chinese vessel surreptitiously to try to move through.
8:38
Speaker 1: But it's still just a complete trickle to where things
8:41
Speaker 1: used to be beforehand. That's why the shortage will remain.
8:44
Speaker 1: And there's already been demand destruction and problems which are
8:47
Speaker 1: rippling through the global economy right now.
8:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, And you know, it's a double edged
8:52
Speaker 2: sword for the Iranians in terms of their strategy. If
8:55
Speaker 2: they shut the straight entirely, obviously it looks oils a
8:57
Speaker 2: global commodity that would increase oil prices more dramatically, but
9:02
Speaker 2: it would also hurt them. So what they've chosen to
9:05
Speaker 2: do is this somewhat middle road where they don't close
9:08
Speaker 2: it entirely. They're able to pick and choose and use
9:11
Speaker 2: it as a point of leverage. They're making more money,
9:14
Speaker 2: something that tree to Parsi actually reported on previously. They're
9:18
Speaker 2: actually making more money. They're de facto enjoying sanctions relief
9:21
Speaker 2: right now. Some oil is getting into the market, which
9:25
Speaker 2: helps ease somewhat the price bike we would otherwise be experiencing,
9:28
Speaker 2: but is obviously significant.
9:30
Speaker 3: Then the other thing that's.
9:31
Speaker 2: Really significant here is just the geopolitical implications of the
9:34
Speaker 2: fact that some of our closest allies we're talking France
9:36
Speaker 2: in Japan are looks like they're basically going to Iran
9:40
Speaker 2: and like, look, we'll work with you here, you what's
9:43
Speaker 2: your asking price? What do we need to do? And
9:45
Speaker 2: that in and of itself is you know, an incredible blow.
9:48
Speaker 2: I mean basically, look, I saw one analysis, Sagar, and
9:51
Speaker 2: I think you said something similar last week as well.
9:54
Speaker 2: I mean, one of the major purposes of the US Empire,
9:58
Speaker 2: and one of the major things that the rest of
10:00
Speaker 2: the world sort of gets out of the US Empire
10:03
Speaker 2: is our ability to guarantee the free flow of goods
10:05
Speaker 2: and trade around.
10:06
Speaker 1: That is the only purpose of a blue water name. Yeah,
10:09
Speaker 1: so is to ensure commerce on the high seas.
10:11
Speaker 2: So if that is, if that's over, then I mean
10:14
Speaker 2: that is basically the US Empire as we knew it
10:17
Speaker 2: before is de facto over, because that was you know,
10:21
Speaker 2: we had a deal with the world in effect, and
10:23
Speaker 2: this was part of the deal. Well, this part of
10:25
Speaker 2: the deal increasingly looks like it's dead and gone, and
10:28
Speaker 2: our closest allies are making other provisions and making other plans.
10:32
Speaker 2: That is as stunning a development as you could possibly.
10:34
Speaker 1: It's really bad. I mean, Professor Pape laid it out
10:36
Speaker 1: very well with Ryan and Emily, how Iran has turtled
10:38
Speaker 1: to turn itself into a great into a world power.
10:41
Speaker 1: And what he means by that is not that it's
10:43
Speaker 1: a superpower, but that it has control over twenty percent
10:46
Speaker 1: of the world's energy, and so as a result, has
10:48
Speaker 1: the ability to compel what a small nation, even with
10:52
Speaker 1: some asymmetry, you know, it punches much more above its weight.
10:55
Speaker 1: And look, it's just obviously true South Korea, Japan, the Philippines,
11:01
Speaker 1: I mean, the real disaster. Again. Nobody in Washington cares
11:04
Speaker 1: at all. All they do is read like the Financial
11:06
Speaker 1: Times or whatever. I read the Korean Herald and Japan
11:08
Speaker 1: Times and Singapore Stray Times and Chosun Daily and yon
11:11
Speaker 1: happ and I'll read Global Times and all those. I
11:14
Speaker 1: read them every single day. And every day I read
11:17
Speaker 1: articles in the Asian press about, oh, the Philippines trying
11:20
Speaker 1: to cut some deal here with with Iran. You know,
11:23
Speaker 1: the Philippine president was like, we got nothing to do
11:26
Speaker 1: with this, don't worry about it. Just please bat bad
11:29
Speaker 1: for US top the major trading partner. Same with South Korea.
11:34
Speaker 1: Every day the South Korean president says something like, I
11:37
Speaker 1: can't sleep. This is a disaster, you know, Like just
11:41
Speaker 1: today he gave a press conference where he's like, don't
11:43
Speaker 1: worry everybody, We're going to be turning to the Red Sea.
11:46
Speaker 1: But you can see then that if red Sea production
11:49
Speaker 1: drops with who these that are joining the war, South Korea, Japan,
11:53
Speaker 1: all of these places are really screwed. So yes, the
11:56
Speaker 1: purpose of the US Empire was Europe gets free health care,
12:00
Speaker 1: gets its oil. We defend you know, a decent portion
12:03
Speaker 1: of it. And as a result, the way that we
12:05
Speaker 1: get anything out of it, you and I is that
12:08
Speaker 1: we have the largest consumer market in the world and
12:10
Speaker 1: we get a lot of cheap shit. It worked out
12:13
Speaker 1: for some period, stopped working for you know. Anyone who
12:16
Speaker 1: watches the show is familiar with that narrative. But now
12:18
Speaker 1: we're both a hyper consumer is society which makes nothing,
12:22
Speaker 1: and we no longer have this ability to compel and
12:25
Speaker 1: to basically write the rules of commerce everywhere. This will
12:28
Speaker 1: have ripple effects. I mean, oh my god, just off
12:31
Speaker 1: the top of my head, like the Taiwan, straight, the
12:33
Speaker 1: Straits of Malacca, all of the all of the global shipping,
12:37
Speaker 1: the fifty percent of global GDP all in Asia. You've
12:41
Speaker 1: got all of these European countries now, which will rewrite
12:44
Speaker 1: the entire way that the Russia Ukraine conflict is happening there.
12:48
Speaker 1: I predict we are a year away from total normalization.
12:51
Speaker 1: If this war continues, they will have no choice. They
12:53
Speaker 1: need you need jet fuel, you need something diesel middle distalance,
12:57
Speaker 1: which Rory gave us the term like it has to
12:59
Speaker 1: come from somewhere. So it will rewrite an entire portion
13:03
Speaker 1: of the way that the world runs. And that's Look,
13:06
Speaker 1: it might be good in the long run, you know
13:08
Speaker 1: for some people, Like that's not going to be good
13:10
Speaker 1: for us. I mean the high prices, lack of industrial base,
13:13
Speaker 1: and a very consumerist society like it can be incredibly
13:17
Speaker 1: we haven't.
13:17
Speaker 3: We haven't planned for that future. Were not just a plan,
13:21
Speaker 3: you know there were.
13:22
Speaker 1: That's shocking, Like it really is. That blows up the
13:25
Speaker 1: conceit as we know it from nineteen forty five onwards.
13:30
Speaker 1: There's bay. I'm trying to think how many people alive
13:33
Speaker 1: today would even have a memory of what it was
13:37
Speaker 1: like before America, America was a genuine world empire.
13:41
Speaker 2: Like not many last weeks here put the eight up
13:43
Speaker 2: on the screen actually challenged some of my ideas of
13:47
Speaker 2: the way that this would all go down. So we've
13:50
Speaker 2: been saying on the show, like, oh, well, the US
13:52
Speaker 2: is a net energy exporters, so we're probably more protected
13:55
Speaker 2: than other places around the world from price bikes.
13:59
Speaker 3: Al Jazero put together this map which.
14:02
Speaker 2: Shows worldwide increases in gasoline prices since the Iron War began,
14:06
Speaker 2: and we're not the highest, but we're in the highest band,
14:09
Speaker 2: so you know.
14:10
Speaker 3: Our consumers are getting hit hard.
14:11
Speaker 2: Now.
14:11
Speaker 3: Of course we're a wealthy country. We can sustain it more.
14:14
Speaker 2: Also, this is gas prices other countries more reliant for
14:17
Speaker 2: energy needs on things like LG. In any case, we
14:20
Speaker 2: are definitely not being spared from the suffering and from
14:24
Speaker 2: the pain here, there's no doubt about that. I think
14:29
Speaker 2: we can transition with that into what's going on around
14:33
Speaker 2: the world. We're starting to get some energy rationing here
14:37
Speaker 2: in the US and certainly around the world. We can
14:40
Speaker 2: put this up on the screen from Time magazine straight
14:43
Speaker 2: of Hormuz crisis is driving a wave of global energy rationing.
14:48
Speaker 2: Aron's effective closure of the Straight of horm Moves, one
14:50
Speaker 2: of the world's most important energy transit routes, has caused
14:53
Speaker 2: a global oil shortage. Some nations are now taking extraordinary measures.
14:58
Speaker 3: To deal with this.
15:00
Speaker 2: Talk about jet fuel shortages. So Europe's airports have begun
15:03
Speaker 2: imposing restrictions on refueling due to a shortage of jet fuel.
15:08
Speaker 2: They give the specific example of Italy where in four
15:12
Speaker 2: different airports they've placed some restrictions on jet fuel through
15:16
Speaker 2: Thursday due to limited fuel availability. You've got flight cancelations already.
15:22
Speaker 2: You have in Bangladesh they talk about how fuel shortages
15:26
Speaker 2: and panic have already resulted in a spike in robberies
15:29
Speaker 2: as people raid gas stations and fuel trucks in order.
15:34
Speaker 3: To stockplot pile supply.
15:35
Speaker 2: So they are already seeing a breakdown in the social
15:39
Speaker 2: order because of the shortages here. You've got impacts in
15:43
Speaker 2: Australia and New Zealand, they talk about because they get
15:46
Speaker 2: most of their fuel from Asia, especially China, Singapore and
15:49
Speaker 2: South Korea. With China restricting experts, the Australian government has
15:53
Speaker 2: tried to quell public panic and to prevent panic buyings.
15:57
Speaker 2: So You've had issues there as well. South Korea says,
16:00
Speaker 2: You've been talking a lot about South Korea. They're telling
16:03
Speaker 2: people to save every drop of fuel. Here's the latest comment.
16:07
Speaker 2: The current crisis is not a passing shower that quickly subsides,
16:10
Speaker 2: but rather a massive storm whose duration is uncertain, making
16:14
Speaker 2: it all the more severe. In Southeast Asia, you're having
16:18
Speaker 2: mandatory work from home. Philippine government is called on workers
16:22
Speaker 2: to carpool. Some government offices have switched to a four
16:24
Speaker 2: day workweek to conserve driving fuel, and similarly in Thailand, Vietnam,
16:29
Speaker 2: and Indonesia, they are encouraging remote work for civil servants.
16:32
Speaker 2: Vietnam's Trade ministry called on businesses to quote encourage work
16:36
Speaker 2: from home when possible to reduce the need for travel
16:38
Speaker 2: and transportation.
16:39
Speaker 1: So here, things are also like in Asia. You know
16:41
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about censorship, they're already there. One
16:44
Speaker 1: of the front page stories in Korea today, which I
16:46
Speaker 1: was reading before coming into work, is how a YouTuber
16:49
Speaker 1: over there was spreading quote fake news about oil. The
16:53
Speaker 1: government is charging him, so like they're in such a panic.
16:56
Speaker 1: It's like remember that movie that everyone watching COVID, What
16:59
Speaker 1: was it? Contagion? I think that's what it was, where
17:01
Speaker 1: the guys spread fake news or whatever to try and
17:03
Speaker 1: make some supplement money. Well, in Korea, people are spreading
17:09
Speaker 1: panic so called fake news over oil and energy rationing
17:12
Speaker 1: that the government is literally cracking that they remember they
17:15
Speaker 1: don't have free speech right, They're just going to come in,
17:16
Speaker 1: They're going to arrestue you. Well, that is the signal
17:18
Speaker 1: of how dire things are and how worried they are
17:20
Speaker 1: about their own society. Italy, I mean BP Italia just
17:24
Speaker 1: announces out of the blue, Hey, we don't have jet fuel.
17:26
Speaker 1: We have to cancel a couple of these. The forward
17:29
Speaker 1: facing contracts that they're looking at are one hundred and
17:31
Speaker 1: ninety five dollars per barrel. The only way that people
17:35
Speaker 1: will be able to fly for a relatively affordable price
17:39
Speaker 1: across the world is if you don't mind the general
17:42
Speaker 1: risk of being hit by a missile while you're in
17:44
Speaker 1: a war zone in Doha or in Dubai. May be
17:48
Speaker 1: worth it for some, not worth it for I think
17:50
Speaker 1: for most, I'm not taking the fair deal. All that.
17:53
Speaker 4: You know.
17:53
Speaker 1: I've done budget travel, but that's a little bit too far.
17:56
Speaker 1: And already I saw a report like Qatar Airways was
18:00
Speaker 1: offering refunds up until July on some flights, and Jubai
18:05
Speaker 1: Emirates Abudah, like all of these major ports. Remember it's
18:09
Speaker 1: not just air travel, it's also air like cargo. Air
18:12
Speaker 1: cargo moves all across the world, and this is creating
18:17
Speaker 1: like this black hole in the center and then also
18:21
Speaker 1: spreading out from all of that of jet fuel. So
18:24
Speaker 1: I actually really think jet fuel is the most underdiscussed
18:27
Speaker 1: element of the crisis, because we're already seeing it in Italy.
18:30
Speaker 1: We saw the warnings in the UK where they're like, hey,
18:33
Speaker 1: in the future, you know, I mean, I don't know,
18:35
Speaker 1: you know if you've ever landed at London Heathrow, but
18:37
Speaker 1: if you ever do, like the price is extremely high
18:40
Speaker 1: because they have like a two hundred dollars landing tax.
18:42
Speaker 1: It's like that could be much higher, right for jet
18:44
Speaker 1: fuel searcharge, We've seen it with Amazon, you just talked
18:48
Speaker 1: about three point five percent. You could see that in
18:50
Speaker 1: the future, any good that has to be moved by
18:53
Speaker 1: air cargo is going to become dramatically more expensive, like
18:58
Speaker 1: radical in terms of and remember that's stuff like stupid
19:01
Speaker 1: stuff like MacBooks. When I ordered this MacBook, it flew
19:04
Speaker 1: here from Vietnam in two days. Well maybe in the
19:06
Speaker 1: future Apple is like, hey, no more new shipping or
19:10
Speaker 1: free shipping. You're like, you're going to have to pay
19:12
Speaker 1: two three hundred dollars. Like that type of stuff is
19:14
Speaker 1: going to manifest, I think, very quickly, and then it
19:17
Speaker 1: will ripple through the economy like that is where you
19:20
Speaker 1: get into recession territory.
19:21
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there have been some reports in the US
19:24
Speaker 2: of gas stations, like in Florida having starting to have shortages,
19:29
Speaker 2: So those implications are starting to come to our shores
19:32
Speaker 2: as well. And I showed the map previously of how
19:34
Speaker 2: much gas prices obviously gone up in the US compared
19:37
Speaker 2: to the rest of the world, and it's already having
19:39
Speaker 2: a huge political impact.
19:41
Speaker 3: We can.
19:41
Speaker 2: Let's put D three up on the screen. This is
19:43
Speaker 2: one of Soccerani's longtime favorite metrics. People who hate both parties?
19:48
Speaker 2: Who are they voting for? And you know in previous elections.
19:53
Speaker 2: In the last election, the double haters voted for Trump
19:56
Speaker 2: and that's really like too and by a significant margin,
19:59
Speaker 2: and that really is kind of like the swing group
20:02
Speaker 2: of the present day. Okay, people who hate both parties,
20:05
Speaker 2: which one can they tolerate more than the other. Now,
20:08
Speaker 2: voters in that group, which hold a negative view of
20:11
Speaker 2: both parties favor Democrats by thirty one points.
20:17
Speaker 3: Thirty one points.
20:19
Speaker 2: Now, let me give a caveat here, which is that
20:23
Speaker 2: you have a lot of Democratic voters who are like
20:26
Speaker 2: Vogue Blue, no matter who, they will always vote for
20:28
Speaker 2: a Democrat, they self identify as Democrats, et cetera, who
20:31
Speaker 2: now have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, they
20:35
Speaker 2: would be classified as double haters even though they always
20:38
Speaker 2: are Democratic partisans. So I think that is important to
20:40
Speaker 2: keep in mind when you look at this polling. But
20:43
Speaker 2: you know, the political landscape is somewhat of a constraint
20:47
Speaker 2: or certainly a factor in the way this war will
20:50
Speaker 2: unfold as well. Part of what's going on internally in
20:53
Speaker 2: the White House apparently is Susie Wilds is not happy.
20:55
Speaker 2: There's a sense of like, Okay, we got to wrap
20:57
Speaker 2: this thing up. Trump is bored with unders it's a
21:00
Speaker 2: distraction from the midterms. The problem is, I don't know
21:03
Speaker 2: how he gets out of this thing without, you know,
21:05
Speaker 2: just an utterly humiliating defeat. I mean that would be
21:08
Speaker 2: if he walks away. Now, that's what we'll be looking
21:10
Speaker 2: at and so he's backed himself into a corner where
21:13
Speaker 2: even if the poll numbers continue to decline as precipitously
21:16
Speaker 2: as they have been, it's not clear that there's anything
21:19
Speaker 2: he can really do about that situation.
21:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, he doesn't have much of a way out.
21:24
Speaker 1: D four. Let's put that up there on the screen.
21:26
Speaker 1: This is another significant one. But remember a lot of
21:29
Speaker 1: people who vote for Trump a lot. One of the
21:31
Speaker 1: big things that always has been his strength has been, Hey,
21:34
Speaker 1: the people who vote and or love him, they love
21:37
Speaker 1: him forever. However, what they're seeing is that the Trump
21:41
Speaker 1: voter regret is now clearly registering. So in April twenty
21:45
Speaker 1: twenty five, seventy four percent of Trump voters scorned any
21:48
Speaker 1: of those options and said they were very confident in
21:51
Speaker 1: their vote. Today that number is only sixty two percent.
21:55
Speaker 1: The thirty eight percent of Trump voters who chose a
21:57
Speaker 1: less resolute option was double than nine teen percent of
22:00
Speaker 1: Kamala voters who did the same. And then of the
22:03
Speaker 1: thirty eight, twenty one percent said they were still confident
22:05
Speaker 1: but still had some concern. So the amount of regret,
22:08
Speaker 1: you know, for vote, I mean, what, that's almost forty
22:11
Speaker 1: percent of the people voted for you are saying, are
22:13
Speaker 1: saying that they really crazy. That's a lot. I mean,
22:16
Speaker 1: last time I checked and actually checks, it maintains in
22:19
Speaker 1: the data. If MAGA is one hundred percent in but
22:22
Speaker 1: independence Centrists or moderate Republicans are out, that's literally the
22:27
Speaker 1: Trump coalition. That's the entire thing. Now. Young voters have
22:30
Speaker 1: swung dramatically away from a lot of the Republicans, especially
22:34
Speaker 1: for Trump. I also love the whole podcast thing. They're like, oh,
22:37
Speaker 1: the podcast, they don't matter anymore, They're not MAGA. I'm like, well,
22:40
Speaker 1: they seem to matter a lot in the elections. So
22:42
Speaker 1: which one is it? So if Theovon and Joe Rogan
22:46
Speaker 1: and I mean Tim Dillon, like the entire bro Spear
22:50
Speaker 1: is like not only anti Trump, but like very anti Trump.
22:53
Speaker 1: Now at this point, at least some of them, well
22:56
Speaker 1: what does that mean? I think for the vibe or
22:59
Speaker 1: any of that. It's like the Silicon Valley people who
23:01
Speaker 1: are still pro Trump, they're like, you know, Japanese guys
23:04
Speaker 1: who refused to surrender at this point, you know, like
23:08
Speaker 1: they're like the only ones still planning the flag. I
23:11
Speaker 1: can't think. I mean, they're even og MAGA people in
23:14
Speaker 1: the men of the movement since twenty fifteen who were like,
23:16
Speaker 1: all right, you know, I'm not I'm done with this
23:18
Speaker 1: per se, but pointing out a lot of the problems, Well,
23:21
Speaker 1: when you think about those things, like it's a big prime.
23:23
Speaker 2: There's an irony for those Silicon Valley guys who thought
23:26
Speaker 2: they were going to get their heart's desire in terms
23:29
Speaker 2: of unleashed AI under Trump, which was part. That wasn't
23:32
Speaker 2: the only thing, but that was a big part of
23:33
Speaker 2: what was going on there. Especially after Trump wins and
23:36
Speaker 2: you have them all Markus, Zuckerberg and Sammam and all
23:38
Speaker 2: these people come in and kiss the ring, et cetera.
23:40
Speaker 3: And the Iran war could destroy their industry. Oh you know.
23:44
Speaker 2: I mean Trump did all the deregulation and the pumping
23:46
Speaker 2: it up and all of that.
23:47
Speaker 3: So he did all of that.
23:48
Speaker 2: Stuff, but because of the reckless disregard for literally anything
23:53
Speaker 2: and a decision to sort of throw us into World
23:56
Speaker 2: War three here with no plan for it to last
23:58
Speaker 2: be on literally two days, Iran is target. They're threatening
24:03
Speaker 2: one of the large data centers in the world right now.
24:05
Speaker 2: I mean, they're threatening these tech companies directly, the energy
24:07
Speaker 2: prices are going to take a huge toll on them.
24:10
Speaker 2: We've already talked about this, you know, somewhat, but there
24:13
Speaker 2: is an irony there to the fact that they got
24:15
Speaker 2: behind Trump and he may be the one that actually
24:18
Speaker 2: destroys that industry. And you know, that may be another
24:21
Speaker 2: silver lining ultimately of this war.
24:23
Speaker 1: I don't. I mean, here's the thing. We could say
24:25
Speaker 1: it in the big picture, you know, as I do.
24:27
Speaker 1: In the interim, what's going to happen pain, millions lose
24:30
Speaker 1: their jobs, bankruptcy, high interest rates, stagflation people. I was
24:35
Speaker 1: just looking at the CPI. People are expecting now four
24:38
Speaker 1: five percent energy inflation just on the year from the
24:42
Speaker 1: inputs into our I mean, that's a disaster, you know,
24:45
Speaker 1: like that erases the margin for the the average what's
24:48
Speaker 1: the average restaurant run on a margin like six percent? Right,
24:50
Speaker 1: So think about that. There's a lot of small businesses
24:53
Speaker 1: that run on that. If you have enough of that inflation,
24:55
Speaker 1: it'll either get passed on to a huge demand destruction
24:57
Speaker 1: and a lot of people will lose their jobs. You know,
25:00
Speaker 1: suicide goes up. It's not coming good.
25:03
Speaker 2: Let's go ahead and turn to some of the ways
25:06
Speaker 2: that they're working to keep accurate information from you all,
25:10
Speaker 2: and from the world and from US and everybody else.
25:12
Speaker 2: And this is really quite extraordinary. So let's put this
25:15
Speaker 2: up on the screen. This is from Planet Labs, and
25:18
Speaker 2: we've talked a little bit about this before, but this
25:21
Speaker 2: is an expanded level of censorship here being done wilfully
25:26
Speaker 2: by Planet Labs at the request of the United States government.
25:30
Speaker 2: So this is from Al Jazeera. They say, US satellite
25:32
Speaker 2: firm Planet Labs announces blackout on war on Iran images.
25:37
Speaker 2: The company says the move is being made amid the
25:39
Speaker 2: US Israel war on Iran, and it comes after a
25:42
Speaker 2: direct request from.
25:44
Speaker 3: The US government.
25:45
Speaker 2: So previously there had been a hold on satellite data
25:50
Speaker 2: from the region, with the idea being that maybe two
25:53
Speaker 2: weeks later we'll post the information. So you're not getting
25:56
Speaker 2: real time looks from this private satellite company of what
26:00
Speaker 2: the damages in the region and damage specifically to like
26:03
Speaker 2: US bases throughout the region. We still have very little information.
26:07
Speaker 2: We know that many of our service members have been
26:09
Speaker 2: pulled off of some thirteen bases in the region and
26:12
Speaker 2: are being put up in civilian hotels, which, by the way,
26:14
Speaker 2: in and of itself, could constitute a war crime because
26:16
Speaker 2: you're then putting civilian you're using civilians as human shields.
26:19
Speaker 2: In any case, that's our only indication of how much
26:23
Speaker 2: damage there is. You'll get a few photos out, a
26:25
Speaker 2: little bit of glimpse here, a little bit of glimpse there.
26:28
Speaker 2: But this private satellite company has just completely bent to
26:32
Speaker 2: the desires of the Trump administration here to hide how
26:36
Speaker 2: much damage there is. I would pair this with there
26:38
Speaker 2: is a report from the Intercept about the way that
26:40
Speaker 2: they are delaying and underplaying reports of casualties and even
26:44
Speaker 2: service members' deaths to try to, you know, to try
26:48
Speaker 2: to create a misimpression of how the war is going
26:51
Speaker 2: and downplay the damage. Now, I'm not going to say
26:53
Speaker 2: these things are really new in war. I think there's
26:55
Speaker 2: typically an effort to downplay the level of death, the
26:58
Speaker 2: level of injuries, the level of damage, et cetera. You know,
27:01
Speaker 2: Trump is very big and has had the very big
27:03
Speaker 2: on this whole victory narrative and they're obliterated, et cetera,
27:06
Speaker 2: et cetera. But for a private company to just go
27:09
Speaker 2: ahead and sort of collapse like this and agree to
27:11
Speaker 2: the whims of the US federal government's brief with that.
27:13
Speaker 1: Well, first of all, yes, screw them. It's also don't
27:16
Speaker 1: forget this. You know they have contracts right like they
27:18
Speaker 1: have contracts with all these news organizations. I have covered
27:22
Speaker 1: war since two thousand and fourteen, and I have used
27:26
Speaker 1: open source satellite imagery for every single conflict we have
27:30
Speaker 1: ever been in, ever been in. This is from Afghanistan
27:34
Speaker 1: to these ocean satellite images, and by the way, we
27:38
Speaker 1: were able to get them a couple of days after
27:40
Speaker 1: the incident. With this now is cutting off everything from
27:43
Speaker 1: like what March it was like March ninth, dating back
27:46
Speaker 1: to March ninth, that they are withholding all imagery and
27:50
Speaker 1: that was some of the initial imagery that we had
27:53
Speaker 1: of US bases. The American public has an absolute right
27:57
Speaker 1: to know, especially with this government and the regime that
28:01
Speaker 1: we've seen put in place over the extreme restrictions in
28:04
Speaker 1: the GOLF. I talked earlier about how people who are
28:08
Speaker 1: entering Oman are being told to sign these documents where
28:12
Speaker 1: they're not allowed to record. They're able to report, but
28:15
Speaker 1: they have to do some writing. In the UAE, you
28:18
Speaker 1: have citizens who can get arrested for or who have
28:21
Speaker 1: foreigners who can get arrested for you know, publishing videos
28:25
Speaker 1: of missile strikes. I know that this is the place
28:27
Speaker 1: in place for much of the golf. There's really only
28:30
Speaker 1: one or two journalists who've even been gone to the
28:33
Speaker 1: straits of horror moves, not saying that they don't have
28:35
Speaker 1: the ability to do so, but more so like that
28:37
Speaker 1: the governments are not letting them. You've only had two journalists,
28:41
Speaker 1: Western journalists who are able to go to Iran. One
28:44
Speaker 1: of them, remember the guy who we interviewed. Oh that
28:46
Speaker 1: guy got bombed by Israel. Let's not forget that. So
28:49
Speaker 1: the censorship regime now is dramatic in place. And actually
28:54
Speaker 1: you have Chinese and Russian satellite because yeah, it turns out,
28:58
Speaker 1: oh nobody owns the like geostationary orbit. Okay, so you've
29:03
Speaker 1: got a bunch of Chinese and Russian satellite companies. They're
29:06
Speaker 1: publishing everything, or they're not publishing open source, they're sending
29:10
Speaker 1: it straight over to the Islamic Republic. And you can
29:13
Speaker 1: see how these Chinese and Russian satellites look what you think.
29:17
Speaker 1: They don't want revenge, especially the Russians after all of
29:19
Speaker 1: these Ukrainian attacks that we have done on them, that
29:23
Speaker 1: we backstop that we've given them all of this intelligence.
29:25
Speaker 1: They are salivating at this ability to try and destroy
29:29
Speaker 1: as much US military aircraft as possible to create this
29:31
Speaker 1: huge energy crisis in Europe. I mean, all I follow
29:35
Speaker 1: a bunch of accounts that are directly from the Kremlin.
29:38
Speaker 1: They're doing backflips over there. They're like, oh, this stand
29:41
Speaker 1: of the European Union, screw you. Oh it's not so
29:45
Speaker 1: fun whenever it happens to you. Same in China. I mean,
29:47
Speaker 1: they're just sitting there, you know, seeing the meme do
29:50
Speaker 1: nothing win from Xijingpang literally doing nothing, just sharing satellite imagery.
29:56
Speaker 1: And by the way, they're doing a export ban on
29:59
Speaker 1: all of their oil. Well, they seem to be doing okay,
30:01
Speaker 1: But the general tack of the CCP so far has
30:05
Speaker 1: been let's sit here, will take some temporary hit on
30:09
Speaker 1: the oil market, but we are bleeding the West dry
30:12
Speaker 1: and we are destroying the ability of their navy. All
30:14
Speaker 1: we have to do is support Ron a little bit
30:17
Speaker 1: few of these hit pinprick strikes and we can create
30:20
Speaker 1: significant chaos and dam Yeah in the US, why wouldn't
30:23
Speaker 1: you do it?
30:23
Speaker 2: Well, you add that to the AI misinformation people were sharing,
30:27
Speaker 2: including politician Greg Abbott shared this fake AI image of
30:31
Speaker 2: the supposed airman who was shot down and rescued and whatever.
30:36
Speaker 2: This thing was spread widely. It's just completely fabricated. And
30:40
Speaker 2: if any of you guys have gone on Twitter and
30:42
Speaker 2: tried to figure out what the hell is going on,
30:43
Speaker 2: it's a near impossibility.
30:44
Speaker 3: There's all kinds.
30:46
Speaker 2: Of fake strikes or repurpose video from this or that.
30:49
Speaker 2: It's very hard to sort through what is going on.
30:51
Speaker 2: You've got a whole bunch of authoritarian governments, including israels
30:55
Speaker 2: that are involved here, that are only showing the world
30:57
Speaker 2: the pieces that they want to show, maybe strategically leaking
31:01
Speaker 2: something or showing something in order to evince some sympathy
31:05
Speaker 2: from the world. But otherwise lots of damage is being
31:08
Speaker 2: under sold. And let me go back to that Intercept
31:11
Speaker 2: report I mentioned, because I think this is highly significant.
31:13
Speaker 3: So they at the.
31:15
Speaker 2: Intercept they say there's a casualty cover up. The Pentagon
31:17
Speaker 2: is hiding US losses under Trump in the Middle East.
31:20
Speaker 2: According to their reporting, this is from last week. Almost
31:23
Speaker 2: seven hundred and fifty US troops have been wounded or
31:26
Speaker 2: killed in the Middle East since October twenty twenty three,
31:29
Speaker 2: that's an analysis from the Intercept, but the Pentagon will
31:32
Speaker 2: not acknowledge it. Sentcom, which oversees military operations in the
31:35
Speaker 2: Middle East, appears to be engaged in what a defense
31:38
Speaker 2: official called a casualty cover up, offering the Intercept low
31:41
Speaker 2: ball and outdated figures, failing to provide clarifications on military
31:45
Speaker 2: deaths and injuries. At least fifteen troops they say were
31:48
Speaker 2: wounded Friday in an Iranian attack on a Saudi air
31:51
Speaker 2: base that hosts American troops. That's according to two government
31:54
Speaker 2: officials who spoke with the Intercept. Hundreds of US personnel
31:57
Speaker 2: have been killed or injured in the regions since the
32:00
Speaker 2: US launched a war on a roun just over a
32:02
Speaker 2: month ago. They go on to detail the way that
32:04
Speaker 2: Sentcom has sent outdated statements on casualty numbers they result
32:08
Speaker 2: in undercounts, including a statement sent Monday from spokesperson Captain
32:11
Speaker 2: Tim Hawkins noting that since the start of Operation Epic Fury,
32:15
Speaker 2: approximately three hundred and three US service members have been wounded.
32:18
Speaker 2: That comment was three days old and excluded at least
32:21
Speaker 2: fifteen wounded in the Friday attack on Prince Salton Airbase
32:24
Speaker 2: in Saudi Arabia Command and not reply to repeated requests
32:27
Speaker 2: for updated figures. They also would not provide account of
32:30
Speaker 2: troops who have died in the region since the start
32:32
Speaker 2: of the war, and intercept analysis puts the number at
32:35
Speaker 2: no less than fifteen. So they are they're cooking the
32:39
Speaker 2: books here, you know, they're underselling the amount of deaths,
32:42
Speaker 2: they're underselling the amount of injuries in a systematic fashion,
32:45
Speaker 2: using outdated numbers, and trying to deceive the news media.
32:49
Speaker 2: And so the interceptor was able to catch them in
32:51
Speaker 2: some of this deception.
32:52
Speaker 1: Not a surprise literally at all, right, and so you
32:55
Speaker 1: could see pretty obviously that also we all knew this
32:58
Speaker 1: was the case. Let's go to a few other examples.
33:01
Speaker 1: Do you remember the Saudi embassy, the US embassy and
33:04
Speaker 1: Riod when it got hit and we were told just
33:07
Speaker 1: a fire, don't worry about it. Turns out the fire
33:11
Speaker 1: raged for hours, destroyed a significant part of the embassy.
33:14
Speaker 1: We learned about it three weeks later. Same with the bases.
33:18
Speaker 1: We've sustained minor damage. Now we're being told they're basically uninhabitable,
33:23
Speaker 1: and a lot of the troops there had to, you know,
33:25
Speaker 1: relocate to some of these hotels. This was the case
33:28
Speaker 1: for some of the radars that were hit. We were
33:30
Speaker 1: told it's no big deal. That's when the satellite imagery
33:32
Speaker 1: came out. Immediately after We're like, oh my god, this
33:34
Speaker 1: the entire battery is completely gone. And so basically, at
33:38
Speaker 1: every turn you should remember there's more damage than we
33:41
Speaker 1: know about, and the really big stuff like the tankers
33:45
Speaker 1: and remember you know some of those aircraft that we've
33:47
Speaker 1: lost it are on the ground. That stuff has to
33:50
Speaker 1: come out because it's so sensational. But lower level things
33:53
Speaker 1: about oh, we're not living in the base anymore. Oh,
33:55
Speaker 1: actually the embassy was on fire but actually burned a
33:58
Speaker 1: lot more. I would not be shocked if energy infrastructure
34:01
Speaker 1: has been hit. I would say five times harder that.
34:04
Speaker 1: I mean, what are you really going to disclose the
34:08
Speaker 1: amount of damage that has taken place in your oil refinery?
34:11
Speaker 1: Probably not. You don't want to show how weak actually
34:13
Speaker 1: you are, how close to breaking. So I really think
34:17
Speaker 1: everyone should just remember the immense amount of sensorship and
34:19
Speaker 1: then look Iran too. They release all kinds of stuff.
34:22
Speaker 1: They release something about some guy's skull that was in
34:25
Speaker 1: you know, a US millit and you're like, maybe I mean, look,
34:28
Speaker 1: it's I mean, is it possible that an American was
34:31
Speaker 1: killed and we're not told about it? I find it
34:34
Speaker 1: very hard to believe. Oh, I find very easy to
34:37
Speaker 1: see because I've asked around about this. Kia is just
34:40
Speaker 1: a whole o it. Well, I mean.
34:41
Speaker 2: Literally report there's at least two that we haven't been
34:45
Speaker 2: told about. And so what they can do is I
34:47
Speaker 2: don't think they can delay it forever, but can you know,
34:49
Speaker 2: can they delay it?
34:50
Speaker 3: Absolutely?
34:51
Speaker 2: And these people will lie about things even that they
34:53
Speaker 2: know will ultimately come out. They just have zero shame.
34:56
Speaker 2: So no, that's not hard to be for me to imagine.
34:58
Speaker 5: All.
34:58
Speaker 2: I'm not saying the Iranian report is true. I'm just
35:00
Speaker 2: saying that that is not difficult for me to imagine whatsoever.
35:03
Speaker 2: And the other piece that is unaccounted for is we
35:06
Speaker 2: have I don't know how many contractors throughout the region
35:09
Speaker 2: as well, that's true.
35:10
Speaker 3: And we don't have that.
35:11
Speaker 2: We haven't gotten any any insight into injuries among contractors
35:15
Speaker 2: and casualties among contractors, and they're, you know, in many
35:18
Speaker 2: cases basically doing the same job as the US military.
35:22
Speaker 2: So in any case, very very incomplete picture of what
35:26
Speaker 2: the reality is for you know, for for Israel, for
35:30
Speaker 2: our golf allies, for the US inside of Iran. Very
35:34
Speaker 2: limited pictures of what's actually going on here.
35:36
Speaker 1: That's right, all right, let's get to treat to Parsi.
35:38
Speaker 1: Crystal is gonna step out because she's got a train
35:40
Speaker 1: to catch. That's right.
35:41
Speaker 2: I'm going to New York by the way, if anyone
35:43
Speaker 2: is in Brooklyn tonight, I'm going to be doing this
35:45
Speaker 2: Jack and Jacobin event that I'm excited about.
35:48
Speaker 3: You go see you guys there.
35:49
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to TREATO. Joining us now is
35:53
Speaker 1: our great friend, doctor Treta Parsi of the Quincy Institute,
35:57
Speaker 1: great friend of the show. Good to see you, Sarah,
35:59
Speaker 1: thanks for joining us. Okay, let's go ahead and start
36:02
Speaker 1: off with a tremendous allegation here or the President telling
36:05
Speaker 1: Trey Yanks of Fox News that actually the United States
36:08
Speaker 1: did send arms to kurd to some Kurdish militant groups,
36:12
Speaker 1: and that somehow that didn't ended up failing as some
36:15
Speaker 1: sort of mission. Let's take a listen. We'll get your
36:16
Speaker 1: reaction now.
36:17
Speaker 4: The President also provided new details on what happened earlier
36:21
Speaker 4: this year as the Iran regime took to the streets
36:24
Speaker 4: and slaughtered. What the President tells me is forty five
36:27
Speaker 4: thousand civilians in their own country. After that took place,
36:31
Speaker 4: President Trump told me the United States sent guns to
36:35
Speaker 4: the Iranian protesters. He tells me, we sent them a
36:38
Speaker 4: lot of guns. We sent them through the Kurds, and
36:40
Speaker 4: the President says he thinks the Kurds kept them. He
36:43
Speaker 4: went on to say, we sent guns to the protesters,
36:46
Speaker 4: a lot of them.
36:46
Speaker 1: Pretty extraordinary allegation there, Sir, maybe either talking about the
36:51
Speaker 1: previous protests from before the war or after the war,
36:55
Speaker 1: arming the Kurds. But how should we receive and analyze
36:59
Speaker 1: this news and then of the war that we're currently in.
37:01
Speaker 6: Well, if you go back and look at the coverage
37:04
Speaker 6: of these protests at the time and my own interviews
37:08
Speaker 6: with you guys, it was very clear that there was
37:11
Speaker 6: something very different about these protests in terms of the violence,
37:16
Speaker 6: not only that was used overwhelmingly, of course by the
37:19
Speaker 6: Iranian government and the very large number of deaths, not
37:22
Speaker 6: the forty thousand that Trump is referencing, but certainly around
37:26
Speaker 6: seven thousand, but also because there was so much violence
37:30
Speaker 6: from some elements within the protest movement, which was very unusual.
37:34
Speaker 6: So you saw targeting of masks, of fire stations, of banks, etc.
37:39
Speaker 6: As well as the killing of at least two hundred
37:41
Speaker 6: or so of the government's forces. This is not what
37:45
Speaker 6: we had seen in Iran before, and at the time,
37:48
Speaker 6: a lot of us was trying to understand how is
37:50
Speaker 6: it that this came about this way, that we have
37:53
Speaker 6: this very significant change in trends, And at the time,
37:56
Speaker 6: of course, Mike Pompeio, former head of CIA, was how
38:00
Speaker 6: the mossade was on the ground, hinting at the US
38:04
Speaker 6: arming these various elements. And now, of course Trump coming
38:09
Speaker 6: with not an allegation, but probably a revelation that this
38:13
Speaker 6: actually was exactly what was happening, that there was elements
38:17
Speaker 6: inside of Iran that were being armed by the United
38:20
Speaker 6: States and Israel.
38:21
Speaker 5: We're conducting some of this violence.
38:23
Speaker 6: Now, the timeline that he's presenting here seems to be
38:25
Speaker 6: a bit off. He's essentially saying that the armaments came
38:29
Speaker 6: to these protesters after the Iran government killed so many
38:34
Speaker 6: of them, and this is around.
38:36
Speaker 5: January eighth and nine.
38:37
Speaker 6: But I think he may have actually misstated and misspoken there,
38:40
Speaker 6: because there were clear evidence that something was happening before then,
38:45
Speaker 6: and that really what this was is that you had
38:47
Speaker 6: two different things happening at the same time. A very large,
38:51
Speaker 6: highly peaceful protest against the government, calling for it to
38:55
Speaker 6: be completely replaced, and then another element that ad under
39:00
Speaker 6: the shadow of these larger protests that was using violence
39:03
Speaker 6: on a scale that we had not seen before. And
39:06
Speaker 6: a lot of the protesters that were out there had
39:08
Speaker 6: no idea about this. They were not involved in any violence.
39:11
Speaker 6: They were not going out there protesting violently to overthrow
39:16
Speaker 6: the government. Nevertheless, once the government started clamping down, they
39:20
Speaker 6: killed both peaceful protesters as well as people from these
39:24
Speaker 6: arm elements what appears to be without much discrimination.
39:27
Speaker 1: Very important, Yeah, that we make that distinction. But to
39:30
Speaker 1: say openly from the president, yeah, we sent them a
39:32
Speaker 1: lot of weapons actually probably bolsters a lot of the
39:35
Speaker 1: case that the regime itself was making for why it
39:37
Speaker 1: had to have such a large crackdown in the first place.
39:40
Speaker 1: So at the same time, though, we have to get
39:42
Speaker 1: your reaction here for how the Iranians are going to
39:45
Speaker 1: respond from Trump's insane Easter message. Let's put it up there,
39:49
Speaker 1: guys on the screen. Tuesday will be power plant Day,
39:52
Speaker 1: Bridge Day, all wrapped in won. There will be nothing
39:55
Speaker 1: like it. Open the fucking straight, you crazy bastards, or
39:58
Speaker 1: you'll be living in hell. Just watch Praise be to Allah.
40:01
Speaker 1: President Donald J. Trump tell us a little bit about, Sir,
40:04
Speaker 1: about the way that this is going to be internalized
40:07
Speaker 1: in Iran by the regime as they consider all these
40:10
Speaker 1: last minutes cease fire proposals and things that are flying
40:13
Speaker 1: around this morning.
40:15
Speaker 6: I think there will be two primary takeaways on the
40:18
Speaker 6: Iranians side. The first one is that Trump is losing it,
40:22
Speaker 6: that he is acting in increased desperation. He's speaking from
40:25
Speaker 6: a position of anger and frustration rather than through measured
40:32
Speaker 6: and thought through threats that he actually can act on.
40:35
Speaker 6: He's issued a lot of threats that he has not
40:37
Speaker 6: acted on precisely because he cannot act on them without
40:41
Speaker 6: causing massive escalation that would backfire on the US itself.
40:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, and second, go ahead.
40:48
Speaker 6: Secondly, when looking at this, I think the Iranians are
40:52
Speaker 6: probably starting to think that Trump may actually go towards
40:55
Speaker 6: the nuclear option, that his desperation has now led to
40:58
Speaker 6: scenario in which he may very well consider options like that.
41:03
Speaker 5: And I have spoken to.
41:04
Speaker 6: Former US officials who are very concerned that this is
41:07
Speaker 6: the direction that Trump is going. In the use of
41:11
Speaker 6: language such as total surrender, etc. That echoes the Second
41:15
Speaker 6: World War language visa VI the Japanese, for instance, are
41:21
Speaker 6: things that are making people worry that this may actually
41:24
Speaker 6: be a consideration, mindful of the fact that none of
41:28
Speaker 6: Trump's threats or actions so far have brought the Yvanians
41:32
Speaker 6: an inch closer towards the type of surrender and capitulation
41:36
Speaker 6: that Trump still seems to be looking for. I don't
41:38
Speaker 6: think it's forthcoming, and as a result, people are starting
41:41
Speaker 6: to fear that actually there may be a use of
41:44
Speaker 6: a nuclear weapity.
41:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm terrified about it as well. I
41:47
Speaker 1: made a joke earlier in the show. The thing about
41:49
Speaker 1: the mad man theory is you're not supposed to actually
41:51
Speaker 1: be mad, You're just supposed to be pretending to be mad.
41:54
Speaker 1: But that's actually kind of the core question. At this point,
41:58
Speaker 1: every ounce of pressure of the US put for a
42:00
Speaker 1: ceasefire has been rejected. Obviously, that leads the US logic
42:04
Speaker 1: of let's up it, because this time they might break.
42:08
Speaker 1: We do have this statement from the Speaker of the Parliament.
42:10
Speaker 1: We can put it up here on the screen. He says,
42:13
Speaker 1: your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a
42:16
Speaker 1: living hell for every single family member, and our whole
42:18
Speaker 1: region is going to burn because you insist on following
42:20
Speaker 1: nata Yahu's commands, so they remain defiant. But sir, if
42:24
Speaker 1: we do go past the deadline, if the attack does happen,
42:28
Speaker 1: what will the likely response by Iran then be? Will
42:32
Speaker 1: we see the same horizontal escalation across the region where
42:35
Speaker 1: we see what possibly do they have left in their
42:38
Speaker 1: arsenal to make things even worse and escalate this into
42:41
Speaker 1: total war.
42:42
Speaker 6: We don't know what they have left in their arsenal
42:44
Speaker 6: in terms of how many missiles they have left, if
42:47
Speaker 6: they have more advanced missiles that they haven't used. I
42:50
Speaker 6: think we should admit, though, that they have surprised the
42:52
Speaker 6: United States several times by using missile technology et cetera
42:56
Speaker 6: that you know, frankly, we didn't believe that they had,
43:00
Speaker 6: so I think one has to be very humble in
43:01
Speaker 6: recognizing that perhaps they have several other cards up their
43:05
Speaker 6: sleeves that could really surprise us. I think also what
43:08
Speaker 6: we saw over the weekend with what appears to have
43:12
Speaker 6: been a rescue attempt against American pilot that was shot
43:16
Speaker 6: down in the Iranian airspace, but also that there seems
43:20
Speaker 6: to be other things going on that may suggest that
43:23
Speaker 6: there also was perhaps an effort to launch some form
43:27
Speaker 6: of a smaller land invasion in order to grab the
43:30
Speaker 6: Iran in Hu, but that it failed. All of these
43:33
Speaker 6: things are coming together here, and I think what we're
43:36
Speaker 6: seeing is that as a result, the Iranians may very
43:39
Speaker 6: well do exactly what they have threatened to do but
43:41
Speaker 6: have not done yet, which is to go after the
43:44
Speaker 6: old infrastructure, to any energy infrastructure in the region, as
43:48
Speaker 6: well as desalination plans, etc. And the GCC states as
43:52
Speaker 6: well as in Israel, and those states are actually more
43:55
Speaker 6: sensitive when it comes to this thant iranis and if
43:58
Speaker 6: the Iranians go after the oil installations and the old infrastructure,
44:02
Speaker 6: I think we have to recognize that's a very different.
44:05
Speaker 5: Scenario we would end up in.
44:07
Speaker 6: Right now, the old prices are high because of a
44:09
Speaker 6: bottleneck in the Persian Gulf. The oil tankers are not
44:12
Speaker 6: coming through unless they pay the run as a transit fee.
44:16
Speaker 6: We are not having an oil problem because infrastructure has
44:20
Speaker 6: been destroyed and production has come down. But if you
44:23
Speaker 6: add that to this scenario, which means that not only
44:26
Speaker 6: do we have a bottleneck, but we also have a
44:28
Speaker 6: production problem. That's when you will likely see all prices
44:31
Speaker 6: go up between hundred and fifty perhaps two hundred. Not
44:34
Speaker 6: only is it going to increase because of that immediate shortage,
44:37
Speaker 6: but because if all infrastructure is taken out, then you
44:40
Speaker 6: also have long term shortages because it's going to take
44:42
Speaker 6: years to be able to rebuild all of that. Right now,
44:46
Speaker 6: in the absence of that destruction, all prices can actually
44:50
Speaker 6: go down to more normal levels within weeks if this
44:53
Speaker 6: conflict is a resolved, but if the all infrastructure is destroyed,
44:56
Speaker 6: it's going to take years to do so, even if
44:59
Speaker 6: the conflict a result. That's a major escalatory card that
45:02
Speaker 6: Irania has have. They've been using it as a counter
45:05
Speaker 6: threat to prevent the United States from going after Iran's
45:08
Speaker 6: old infrastructure and other civilian infrastructure.
45:11
Speaker 1: Last question for you, then, what about the Hoho Thies.
45:13
Speaker 1: They've remained largely out of the conflict so far in
45:16
Speaker 1: the Red Sea. They did fire several missiles at Israel today,
45:20
Speaker 1: but they have not fully tried to close the Red Sea.
45:23
Speaker 1: I saw some reports that it's possible that they'd been
45:26
Speaker 1: paid off by Saudi Arabia or bribed effectively to stay
45:30
Speaker 1: out of the conflict. How seriously do you take those reports?
45:32
Speaker 1: Do you think they're just holding back because their strategy
45:36
Speaker 1: so far in the conflict has been has either not
45:38
Speaker 1: made sense, or they just seem to be waiting.
45:40
Speaker 5: What do you think? I think it's more that they're waiting.
45:43
Speaker 6: What we have seen is that what they have done,
45:46
Speaker 6: when they have done something, it appears to have been
45:48
Speaker 6: very closely coordinated not only would Iran but also with
45:52
Speaker 6: Hezibolaine Lebanol, meaning that the attacks are coming in a
45:56
Speaker 6: very coordinated and timed fashion in order to make the
46:00
Speaker 6: Islis put them in as a disadvantageous position as possible.
46:05
Speaker 6: All of that, to me suggests that they're demonstrating their
46:07
Speaker 6: capability as it deterns. But if the US escalates massively
46:11
Speaker 6: after these threats, then I think it is quite likely
46:14
Speaker 6: that the Hooties will enter the war fully and that
46:17
Speaker 6: will again further the horizontal escalation from what we see
46:20
Speaker 6: so far.
46:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, sir, thank you as always for joining us
46:24
Speaker 1: and for all of the insight you're able to give us.
46:26
Speaker 1: We appreciate it very much and we'll see you later.
46:28
Speaker 5: Thank you appreciate it.
46:31
Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it.
46:32
Speaker 1: Ryan and I will be out tomorrow bro Show. We'll
46:34
Speaker 1: see you then.